Thursday, August 7, 2008

Aug 07 2008

Session Time: Thu Aug 07 00:00:00 2008

[08:15] {Threei} VRNM... morning fingers warm-up, 3.32 in, 3.50 out
[08:17] {hawkfan4} nice
[08:18] {hawkfan4} what's got oil so happy this morning?
[08:18] {Threei} looked quite safe with offer right at yesterday's closing price
[08:19] {Threei} I don't ssee anything dramatic in news
[08:19] {hawkfan4} yeah me either
[08:20] {Threei} I guess we just can't count on straing down to 80 :)
[08:21] {Threei} in my view we will get there sooner or later
[08:21] {Threei} but there are always different camps
[08:21] {Threei} one perceives such drop as end of bull move
[08:21] {hawkfan4} i sure hope we do
[08:21] {Threei} other takes it as pullback within bull trend
[08:22] {Threei} and seeing it as buying opportunity provides buying wave
[08:22] {Threei} then there are shorts, some of which have shorter time frame
[08:22] {Threei} or lower risk teloerance
[08:23] {Threei} so they add fuel to buying after significant pullback
[08:23] {Threei} All these reasons exist in "trading" universe, not in "investing" one
[08:23] {Threei} so they influence direction regardless of visible reasons
[08:24] {Threei} (and that's where we short term traders find our food)
[08:24] {hawkfan4} makes sense to me :)
[08:25] {Threei} our hope now is,
[08:25] {Threei} the depth of this oil drop showed potential buyers just how vulnerable it can be
[08:25] {Threei} and hopefully instilled fear in them
[08:25] {Threei} so when recoveries occur, they (buyers) will tend to get much more careful
[08:26] {Threei} and we will not see "buy at any price, it goes to the moon anyway" mentality
[08:27] {Threei} I mean if oil could drop 30 bucks in a course of what, less than one month,
[08:27] {Threei} what is there to keep it from dropping 40 more in just a few short weeks
[08:27] {Threei} which would get us to that 80
[08:27] {hawkfan4} that beautiful 80
[08:28] {Threei} Magnitude of such drop also serves as good reminder that no matter what kind of fundamental reasons lie under the bullish move
[08:28] {Threei} there is a great deal of pure trading reasons also
[08:28] {Threei} and it's anyone's guess what ratio is
[08:29] {Threei} I see some saying last 40 bucks were pure speculation,
[08:29] {Threei} others assigning last 60 or last 20
[08:29] {Threei} I have no idea how they calculate it, my tea leaves show last $85.76
[08:30] {hawkfan4} lol, all i know is i'll be sad when the UAUA/oil trade dries up
[08:30] {Threei} but market tens to overshoot reasonable targets on BOTH sides
[08:30] {Threei} *INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 455K V 425KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.311M V 3.255ME
[08:30] {Threei} *(CA) JUN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -5.3% V -1.0%E
[08:31] {Threei} something else will come...
[08:31] {Threei} sure, such strong correlation is always nice to have
[08:31] {Threei} provides for amazingly predictable trades
[08:32] {hawkfan4} yep, i traded the solars for a long time, now they're much less predictable, i hardly touch them
[08:32] {Threei} right
[08:32] {Threei} we played solars for about 6 months at least I think
[08:32] {Threei} financials came with their wave of opportunities
[08:33] {Threei} then airlines
[08:33] {Threei} sonething will always be there
[08:33] {Threei} we haven't seen anything from nanos in a long while
[08:33] {Threei} or stem cells
[08:33] {Threei} or... or...
[08:33] {Threei} in 1999 maanias would come one after another
[08:34] {Threei} china... wireless... Pokemon
[08:35] {hawkfan4} i watch POT/MOS, POT ususally leads and i trade MOS, but it's super risky, moves fast. Worked great yesterday
[08:35] {Threei} there you go..
[08:35] {Threei} when you get the general idea, you'll always find opportunities
[08:50] {judijim} good morning
[08:50] {Threei} jj :)
[08:51] {Threei} - Sees no contraints on credit and loan markets
[09:06] {fernp} Good morning
[09:06] {Threei} fern :)
[09:07] {dino} gm all
[09:07] {Threei} dino :)
[09:08] {cosmo} VRSN should hold 29
[09:08] {cosmo} imo
[09:09] {Threei} AIG is available for shorting
[09:09] {Threei} not rushing in... watching
[09:11] {tomg} good morning
[09:11] {Threei} tom :)
[09:13] {pita} good morning
[09:13] {Threei} pita :)
[09:20] {dptl} good morning all
[09:21] {Threei} dp :)
[09:22] {cosmo} VRSN testy
[09:22] {magoo} kjfdhlirslihjdsllkjsjfklkjkh
[09:23] {Threei} jkflsgitjk to you too
[09:25] {peterg} morning all
[09:26] {Threei} peter :)
[09:31] {Threei} want VRNM pullback
[09:31] {Threei} thing seems to be far from over
[09:32] {Threei} not sure about break of .75 here
[09:34] {Threei} AIG half lot long .26
[09:34] {Threei} if stays about .10
[09:35] {Threei} invalidated, let it drop more
[09:35] {Threei} or establish new range
[09:37] {Threei} not ready yet IMO
[09:37] {Threei} needs one more sharp spike down
[09:44] {Threei} EVVV
[09:44] {Threei} .95 long
[09:44] {Threei} if stays above .85
[09:44] {dino} ctrn
[09:44] {Threei} low volume, half lot probably
[09:48] {dino} mflx sm l .85
[09:49] {peterg} ha-took my dime from AIG
[09:49] {Threei} gj
[09:50] {Threei} it did give a few opportunities, it's just that they all were too fast to call
[09:50] {Threei} if you watched and were ready, they were exploitable
[09:50] {peterg} right
[09:51] {esemde} morning
[09:51] {peterg} still slow but impossible to do on previous platform thks
[09:51] {Threei} 9.80 break for UAUA, if USO drops
[09:51] {Threei} ese :)
[09:53] {Roman} 21 keeping an eye on DSTI
[09:53] {Roman} 21 small solar reported
[09:57] {peterg} aig down down down
[09:57] {Roman} 21 TXCO Resources reports strong Pearsall well flows (9.01 -0.08)
[09:58] {peterg} poor hank
[09:58] {dino} aig sm l .35, stop .99
[09:59] {Threei} USO loss of .70 - .75 should send it down
[10:00] {Threei} JUNE PENDING HOME SALES: 5.3% V -1.0%E
[10:00] {Threei} wow
[10:00] {Threei} how do they come up with those estimates, so much off target
[10:01] {Roman} 21 home builders?
[10:01] {Roman} 21 LEN
[10:01] {Roman} 21 TOL
[10:02] {Threei} USO drop
[10:02] {Threei} here goes UAUA, right on cue
[10:02] {magoo} in .81
[10:03] {peterg} go go go --gotta go day job back in hr
[10:04] {Threei} stop .65
[10:04] {Threei} die USO
[10:04] {dino} vrsn sm l .16, stop .78
[10:04] {Roman} 21 grabbed some LEN
[10:05] {Roman} 21 .65
[10:05] {Threei} wow, nice LEN
[10:06] {Roman} 21 WM working it
[10:06] {Roman} 21 ABK vad?
[10:07] {Threei} just moves with the market
[10:07] {Threei} lost its own momo
[10:08] {Threei} now loss of .50 by USO should help complete UAUA trade
[10:09] {Threei} just don't form double bottom please
[10:09] {Threei} form inverted C&H please
[10:09] {Threei} and die please
[10:09] {Threei} three please - is it enough?
[10:10] {Roman} 21 Vad, what's you target on UAUA
[10:10] {Threei} totally USO dependent
[10:10] {Roman} 21 TXCO sqeazing
[10:10] {Threei} this thing doesn't move according to its own technicals
[10:11] {Roman} 21 let me ask then magoo, where is he "WAITING"?
[10:11] {Threei} USO strengthens
[10:11] {Threei} not good
[10:11] {magoo} out .77
[10:11] {magoo} - .04
[10:11] {dino} out aig .80, +.45
[10:15] {dino} rail l sm .9- stop .47
[10:20] {Threei} OK UAUA
[10:20] {Threei} come to daddy
[10:22] {Threei} ah come on, just a few cents till 1:1, don't quit on me now
[10:25] {dino} btw...j......e.....t.....s
[10:34] {dptl} took +6c uaua ty....starting to hate this stock
[10:34] {Threei} lol
[10:35] {dptl} :)
[10:36] {dptl} hard to find plays today...was yestarday the same?
[10:36] {esemde} dp.....
[10:36] {Threei} yesterday was much better
[10:37] {dino} yesterday fun, today tougher imo
[10:37] {dptl} of course...:)
[10:37] {dptl} ese:)
[10:37] {dino} of course, i'm an idiot, 3 scalps i had and let go on greed
[10:39] {Roman} 21 FXEN
[10:39] {Roman} 21 long small of 7.5
[10:39] {Roman} 21 stop under 7.30
[10:40] {Roman} 21 PTEN
[10:40] {Roman} 21 long 26.50
[10:40] {dino} vrsn stopped -.35
[10:41] {dino} that was one of them
[10:43] {dino} out mflx .16, +.31
[10:44] {dino} rinsed mflx
[10:44] {dino} grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[10:45] {dino} opps, watching wrong stock
[10:47] {esemde} been watching AIG dino....excellent scalp on the run up to 24.80.....i'm amazed at how you play this type of capitulation
[10:47] {dino} rail mstop to .91
[10:48] {Threei} those trades are dino
[10:48] {Threei} s domain
[10:48] {esemde} indeed!!
[10:48] {dino} lol es, not much to it. gut reaction
[10:48] {dino} waiting at 23.35 now
[10:49] {dino} vrsn might be worth another try on fast drop into say .18ish
[10:50] {Threei} .86 starts looking like short trigger for AIG if stays under 24
[10:50] {dino} v thoughts?
[10:50] {Threei} V seems to reversing to upside to me
[10:51] {dino} same thinking
[10:51] {Threei} desirably holding above .20
[10:51] {dino} missed
[10:51] {Threei} here comes break
[10:51] {Threei} should give one more pullback
[10:51] {Threei} for entry
[10:52] {dino} try off .30 w/stop .99
[10:52] {dino} if it goes there
[10:53] {dino} rail to .99
[10:54] {Threei} here is pullback for scalp entry, V... with stop under .20
[10:54] {Threei} or for dino's setup
[10:56] {Threei} break of .50 will signal stop trailing to under .30 now
[10:57] {Threei} and actually give over 1:1
[10:57] {dino} no fill
[10:57] {Threei} took .34
[10:57] {magoo} i got .34
[10:58] {dino} gj
[10:58] {Threei} WB
06[10:59] * Threei kicks V in the rear
[11:01] {Threei} half out .60
[11:01] {peterg} good kick what u looking for?
[11:01] {Threei} stop to .29
[11:01] {Threei} scalpers have almost 1:2
[11:02] {dino} sm l aig .10
[11:03] {dino} stop .83
[11:04] {dino} ok got v
[11:04] {Threei} OK OK V, I got it... "scalps r us"
[11:05] {Threei} - now forecasts 7-10 hurricanes (up from 6-9 prior forecast), and 14-18 tropical storms (up from 12-16 prior forecast){USO}
[11:08] {pita} gotta go - good luck everyone
[11:08] {dino} cya
[11:08] {Threei} take care pita
[11:09] {esemde} see ya pita
[11:10] {esemde} OK Aig has seemed to have leveled you consider playing it again for a bounce up or is this type of play a one deal for you
[11:11] {dino} see above, in at .10
[11:11] {dino} you see what i see, it seems
[11:13] {dino} v sm pcln l .00
[11:14] {dino} sm vrsn l .30, stop .94
[11:14] {dino} pcln is wide
[11:17] {dino} rail stopped +.20
[11:20] {Threei} VRNM bounce time
[11:20] {Threei} just a scalp most liekly
[11:24] {Threei} C is getting creamed
[11:25] {Threei} dragging other financials
[11:25] {Threei} - Citi will reimburse investors who sold ARS at a discount after the market failed, to reimburse over 40K customers nationwide
[11:25] {Threei} - SEC: Citigroup to liquidate $12B in ARS from institutions by end of 2009, to liquidate $7B in ARS bought by investors at par in no later than 3 months. Citi to buy back ARS at par from all individuals and charities that bought from Citi before Feb 11, 2008.
[11:25] {Threei} - Notes that the actual cost of acquisition of ARS will depend on market value and the quantity purchased
[11:25] {Threei} - Estimates the difference between the purchase price and the market value of the ARS is around $500M, pre-tax
[11:28] {Threei} Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group III released the report on causes of financial crisis
[11:28] {Threei} In a cover letter to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., the group attributed some of the crisis to human psychology.
[11:28] {Threei} "The root cause of financial market excesses on both the upside and the downside of the cycle is collective human behavior -- unbridled optimism on the upside -- and fear -- bordering on panic -- on the downside," the letter said.
[11:28] {Threei} really?
[11:28] {Threei} wow
[11:29] {cosmo} as ye descend, so shall ye ascend
[11:29] {cosmo} cheer up
[11:30] {dptl} lol ....they finalyfigure that out
[11:30] {Threei} uhhu
[11:30] {Threei} I could tell them all about it long ago
[11:30] {dino} so basically, fear and greed
[11:30] {Threei} for a small administrative fee
[11:31] {Threei} would be much cheaper for them than bear with outcome now
[11:31] {dino} they just say it so much better
[11:31] {dptl} :)
[11:32] {Threei} sure... English is their first language
[11:32] {cosmo} but greed is only a function of fear ... i thot
[11:32] {Threei} but can they trout people?
[11:32] {Threei} oh wait
[11:32] {Threei} they can
[11:34] {judijim} Judi's off to work, not that trading isn't work but she's off for the day. Be back tomorrow
[11:34] {Threei} take care jj
[11:34] {Threei} and no, trading is not work
[11:35] {Threei} it's pure and unbridled fun
[11:37] {dino} the game the game, nothing quite the same, all that really matters is the game
[11:47] {Threei} watching AKM
[11:47] {Threei} AKAM
[11:47] {Threei} maybe time for little bounce scalp
[11:47] {Threei} .35 trigger, .29 stop
[11:49] {dino} out pcln .60
[11:49] {dino} +.60
[11:50] {Threei} wtg
[11:50] {peterg} wtg
[11:50] {lars} nj dino
[11:51] {Threei} 1/10 of that on AKAM {G}
[11:51] {dino} ty
[11:51] {dino} too soon it seems
[11:53] {dino} vrsn stopped again -.33, done w/it
06[11:55] * laserdave1 slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
06[11:55] * laserdave1 slaps magoo around a bit with a large trout
[11:55] {laserdave1} one of the three stooges is not here
[11:55] {laserdave1} :(
[11:55] {laserdave1} o well i get two of you
[11:56] {dptl} lol Dave....nice strike
[11:56] {laserdave1} ah that is so nice of you to say
06[11:56] * laserdave1 slaps dptl around a bit with a large trout
[11:56] {dptl} lol
[11:56] {laserdave1} :)
[11:56] {dino} hayn
[11:59] {dino} v stopped -.33
[12:00] {Threei} was it pre-emptive strike?
06[12:16] * Chaeron slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[12:17] {Chaeron} hi all
[12:17] {dino} pcln sm l .00
[12:20] {Threei} chaeron :)
[12:28] {dino} mflx l .99
[12:42] {hawkfan4} oil dropping, in UAUA
[12:48] {Threei} USO red
[12:48] {Threei} good
[12:48] {hawkfan4} very
[12:59] {dino} v sm cme l .32
[13:04] {dino} out mflx .07 +.08]
[13:06] {dino} sm s hayn .95
[13:18] {esemde} ladies and germs.....see you all later or possibly to morrow...have some errands to run
[13:18] {Threei} take care ese
[13:18] {esemde} see ya vad
[13:22] {Chaeron} .
[13:24] {Threei} hmmm
[13:25] {Threei} Chrysler/Nissan partnership?
[13:25] {Threei} ?me is thinking of changing the carmaker
[13:36] {dino} out cme 336.52, +1.20
[13:37] {dino} out aig .50, +.40
[13:38] {hawkfan4} nice job
[13:38] {dino} ty
[13:54] {peterg} See y'all Tuesday, off to swelter in Miami Beach! Have nice trip Vad
[13:55] {Threei} thank you peter
[13:55] {Threei} have fun
[13:55] {dino} take care pete
[13:56] {peterg} thks--might be able to tune in Fri late; make a cupla cents
[13:56] {peterg} or lose, as the case may be :) :(
[13:57] {peterg} anybody have experience w Parallels on mac simulating windows?
[13:57] {peterg} cant get laser to connect.
[13:57] {peterg} on that system
[13:58] {Threei} I will be amazed if Laser is the only thing not working
[13:58] {peterg} creaky Fidelity system works
[13:58] {Threei} none of trading applications is designed with mac in mind
[13:58] {Threei} that's not application really
[13:58] {Threei} that's browser-based
[13:58] {peterg} right--Parallels installs virtual windows system inside mac
[13:59] {peterg} so windows programs work
[13:59] {Threei} insert "some"... :)
[13:59] {peterg} I bought and installed windows XP in the mac
[13:59] {peterg} some
[13:59] {peterg} hug
[13:59] {peterg} huh
[13:59] {peterg} gotcha
[13:59] {peterg} so long
[14:02] {dino} kalu bloody
[14:06] {Threei} FNM looks to lose 10
[14:23] {dino} sohu
[14:27] {dino} hayn stopped ave -.35
[14:28] {dino} sohu sm l .90
[14:37] {dino} tbsi
[14:38] {Threei} USO looks to drop from here
[14:39] {Threei} loss of .50 is first signal and .40 is confirmation
[14:40] {dino} sohu stop to b/e
[14:42] {dino} out sohu .06 +.16
[14:45] {Threei} **consensus expectation: $6.3Be v $7.8B prior
[15:00] {Threei} JUNE CONSUMER CREDIT: $14.3 V $6.3BE
[15:00] {Threei} huh?
[15:02] {dino} increased
[15:02] {Threei} 14 vs 6 estimate?
[15:02] {Threei} who the hecl does those estimates?
[15:04] {dino} magoo's responsible for them
[15:07] {Threei} tell his to sober up before writing report
[15:07] {Threei} his = him
[15:08] {Threei} I mean come on... if you lower estimate by 1 billion with each shot of vodka...
[15:08] {Threei} we can only hope that you can't handle 14 shots in a row
[15:10] {dino} aig sm l .85, stop .47
[15:10] {dino} sohu l sm .80, stop .46
[15:14] {dino} don't underestimate him
[15:14] {Threei} then we are in troubles
[15:14] {lars} 15 shots in a row tops
[15:21] {dino} v sm cme l .01
[15:26] {dino} out cme 2.21, +1.20
[15:26] {dino} too soon
[15:27] {dino} or not
[15:27] {dino} sohu stop to .99
[15:27] {dino} out +.19
[15:28] {lars} need to kick aig dino
[15:28] {dino} i have been, foot hurts
[15:28] {dptl} have a good evening all see ya tomorrow:)
[15:28] {dino} tighten stop to .78
[15:28] {lars} lol... let me help you
[15:29] {dino} l8r dp
[15:29] {Threei} take care dp
[15:31] {dino} aig stopped -.07
[15:39] {dino} sm sohu l .60
[15:40] {dino} eurx
[15:48] {fernp} I can not be here tomorrow, so Vad, have a nice and relaxing cruise
[15:48] {Threei} thank you fern
[15:48] {Threei} I am sujre I will
[15:48] {Threei} and will return rested, re-energized
[15:48] {Threei} re-juvenated
[15:48] {Threei} re- soemthing else
[15:48] {fernp} lol
[15:48] {Threei} :)
[15:49] {Threei} oh, re-inflated... they say food is good and plentiful :)
[15:53] {dino} you leaving tomorrow vad?
[15:54] {dino} you will gain 12 lbs.
[15:54] {Threei} saturday
[15:54] {Threei} 12?
[15:54] {Threei} wow
[15:54] {dino} ok. i lreave the 15th
[15:55] {Threei} I won't see you then before your return
[15:56] {dino} i'll be back to work on the 21st
[15:57] {dino} out sohu .99, +.39
[15:58] {Threei} Thank you all
[15:59] {Threei} have a good evening
[15:59] {Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:59] {lars} cya vad
[15:59] {hawkfan4} u 2
[16:00] {dino} out pcln flat hours