Thursday, August 20, 2009

Aug 20 2009

Not much happened aside of AIG momentum-fuelled run. August is slowly winding down...

Session Start: Thu Aug 20 01:23:07 2009

[08:50] {Threei} INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 576K V 550KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 6.241M V 6.215ME
[08:50] {Threei} - Prior jobless claims revised from 558K to 561K
[08:50] {Threei} - Prior Continuing Claims revised from 6.202M to 6.239M
[08:51] {nemo} that should dampen things a bit
[08:52] {Threei} caused whole 10 points NQ drop
[08:52] {nemo} august somnolence
[09:06] {fernp} good morning everybody
[09:06] {nemo} another optimist
[09:07] {fernp} sorry
[09:07] {nemo} just don't do it again
[09:07] {Threei} fern :)
[09:08] {magoo} morning
[09:08] {nemo} Magus :)
[09:08] {Threei} magoo :)
[09:09] {cosmo} PTEM might heal
[09:09] {dino} gm all
[09:09] {cosmo} watch 20 action
[09:09] {dino} shld blood
[09:09] {nemo} bad earnings
[09:09] {nemo} employment ba too
[09:09] {nemo} damn sheep
[09:09] {Threei} dino :)
[09:10] {cosmo} ba ba nemo
[09:12] {magoo} what u watching vad?
[09:12] {nemo} coma
[09:12] {nemo} oops...sorry...that comes later
[09:14] {Threei} AXL
[09:14] {Threei} BAC
[09:14] {cosmo} PETM 20 test coming
[09:14] {Threei} don't have anything constructive yet
[09:20] {magoo} hurn too vad
[09:21] {Threei} yeah...
[09:27] {magoo} shld vad crushed
[09:27] {nemo} [09:09] {dino} shld blood
[09:31] {cosmo} PETM went stupid on me
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup: BAC 17 break
[09:34] {Threei} if stays above 16.90
[09:35] {magoo} in
[09:35] {magoo} pretty g gopod pllbk hurn
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup: AXL .65 if stays above .50
[09:36] {magoo} aig rtk
[09:38] {Threei} AIG another squeeze is on
[09:38] {magoo} big pllbk edap
[09:40] {dino} shld v sm l .00
[09:40] {Threei} Preview: Q2 US Mortgage Delinquencies due out at 10amET
[09:40] {Threei} **no estimate, prior quarter (Q1) was 9.12%
[09:42] {dino} s topped
[09:45] {Threei} AXL is reestablshed
[09:45] {Threei} risky one
[09:47] {Threei} let's modify it
[09:47] {Threei} .50 break if stays above .40
[09:47] {magoo} how much u looking for?
[09:51] {magoo} aig hits 30
[09:51] {nemo} wonder what the news is this time
[09:52] {magoo} ceo says will be avble pay bk govt tarp i heardr
[09:52] {nemo} huh?
[09:53] {Threei} BAC stop to .94
[09:54] {magoo} hurn losing
[09:55] {dino} last try shld sm .00
[10:00] {Threei} AUG PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX: 4.2 V -2.0E
[10:00] {Threei} *JULY LEADING INDICATORS: 0.6% V 0.7%E
[10:00] {dino} out shld .40, +1.40
[10:00] {Threei} *(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.24% V 9.12% PRIOR (Q1); highest reading on record
[10:01] {dino} toughb crrrooowwwwdddddd
[10:01] {nemo} whatsa' matter Dino?
[10:01] {larisa} nice dino :)
[10:01] {Threei} we lost our breath dino... envy, ya know
[10:02] {dino} ty larisa, you're the best
[10:02] {larisa} ty :)
[10:02] {nemo} oh, yeah, I was writing "are you strapped in" as your comment came across...thought you might be in for a rocket ride
[10:03] {dino} lol
[10:03] {nemo} RIMM broke nice out of 74.35
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup: AIG .10 break half lot
[10:09] {Threei} if stays above .95
[10:10] {Threei} no worky
[10:11] {nemo} half lot good idea
[10:12] {Threei} IRBT Hearing awarded $35.3M order from US Army yesterday (11.47, +0.13, 1.15%)
[10:13] {fernp} HIG breaking hod
[10:17] {magoo} HURN read vad?
[10:18] {Threei} .50 break
[10:18] {magoo} AIG setts for next leg
[10:18] {Threei} yeah
[10:18] {Threei} that's what I had in mind with that .10 break
[10:19] {nemo} market shaking off the bad news today
[10:22] {magoo} it trades like a donkey takes critical levels and fails
[10:23] {dino} heeehaw
[10:24] {nemo} what Dino?
[10:24] {dino} donkey
[10:24] {nemo} as in?
[10:24] {Threei} lol
[10:24] {dino} magoo above (or another name for him)\
[10:25] {nemo} yeah...the analogy escapes me...what critical levels do donkey's reach and then fail?
[10:25] {cosmo} PETM hod = 20 fwiw
[10:28] {dino} lod 19.50
[10:28] {magoo} sigh..trying to teach u guys
[10:28] {dino} played it afterhours last night
[10:29] {nemo} huh? and huh?
[10:31] {magoo} 31 is coming RISKY
[10:31] {magoo} 32
[10:31] {nemo} what stock mags?
[10:32] {magoo} AIG
[10:32] {magoo} but its not easy
[10:32] {nemo} it's at 30.36, you think it's going to 32.00
[10:32] {magoo} 31
[10:32] {magoo} then 32 today
[10:32] {dino} don't get him started nemo
[10:33] {magoo} concur vad?
[10:33] {nemo} that was an earnest question
[10:33] {magoo} 31 soon
[10:33] {Threei} 31 yes
[10:33] {Threei} 32 - I'd havbe to reevaluate when we get there
[10:33] {nemo} I wasn't being my usual obnoxiously patronizing self
[10:33] {dino} 31 then 12 in month
[10:34] {magoo} i dont care about that
[10:34] {magoo} this is $$
[10:35] {magoo} out .93 TY vad
[10:35] {magoo} another point
[10:36] {Threei} here is 31
[10:36] {Threei} lol, BAC
[10:36] {fernp} and BAC 1:1
[10:36] {Threei} 1:1, half out
[10:36] {Threei} sat long enough for us to foreget qwe had it
[10:38] {magoo} 32 coming
[10:38] {Threei} yep...
[10:38] {Threei} mother of all squeezes
[10:39] {magoo} out here
[10:39] {magoo} another .80
[10:39] {Threei} wtg
[10:39] {magoo} 35 shit
[10:42] {magoo} out again .82
[10:42] {magoo} 4 for 4 on it
[10:42] {Threei} good job
[10:42] {magoo} RISKY..gotta go change underwear
[10:42] {magoo} brb
[10:42] {Threei} things we learn here
[10:43] {magoo} [10:39] {magoo} 35 shit
[10:43] {magoo} [10:39] {&
[10:43] {magoo} problem is it pullsbk hard....but WOW vad, last few days we have MOMOMOMOMOMOMOMOM
[10:44] {magoo} serious runners vad like ole days
[10:44] {Threei} well, with all the doom and gloom spread by wounded bears at the slightest hint of market pullback, no wonder
[10:47] {Threei} mesmerizing
[10:48] {Threei} and no news whatsoever
[10:49] {magoo} out .90 again
[10:49] {magoo} took cross 33
[10:49] {magoo} 34
[10:49] {magoo} now 35
[10:49] {magoo} moght have to revise my target :)
[10:50] {nemo} 40
[10:50] {magoo} 38
[10:50] {Threei} pullback time
[10:50] {Threei} hard one too
[10:52] {magoo} out .79 now
[10:52] {Threei} wow... for a minute T&S and Level 2 had some discrepancy
[10:52] {Threei} don't remember when I saw that on Laser
[10:52] {magoo} like 6 for 6 on it
[10:52] {magoo} GET AWAY HERE
[10:52] {magoo} losing power it feels
[10:53] {magoo} [10:39] {magoo} 35 shit
[10:53] {Threei} when pullback comes it will be just as devastating for bulls as runup was/is for bears
[10:53] {nemo} volume has been dropping since 9:50
[10:53] {magoo} right vad, drop of 3 points
[10:54] {magoo} dont like it here long
[10:54] {magoo} pushing my luck
[10:54] {Threei} relax... you did great on it,
[10:54] {fernp} out HIG +.12
[10:54] {Threei} now let it rest a bit,
[10:54] {fernp} a bit faster than bac but not much more
[10:54] {Threei} then do this:
[10:54] {nemo} that's an understatement...ow...that hurt
[10:55] {Threei} when you feel it finished churning and shaking
[10:55] {Threei} and ready to resume
[10:55] {nemo} Hey Dino, Mags buying drinks tonight
[10:55] {Threei} skip first play you see,
[10:55] {Threei} it's most likely false attempt,
[10:55] {Threei} take second but with half shares
[10:55] {magoo} thanx..thats good advice
[10:55] {Threei} and trade it as you see fit with half of what you did in these 6 plays
[10:55] {magoo} cant win everyone
[10:56] {Threei} one biggest mistake you can make now is:
[10:56] {magoo} really got lucky
[10:56] {Threei} take the play, see it going against you, double down
[10:56] {Threei} this is what can destroy your winnings
[10:56] {magoo} yea..triple down..blow all stops lose like 5k OUCH
[10:56] {Threei} yup
[10:56] {Threei} happens to many after such winning streak,
[10:57] {Threei} caused by feeling that you know this stock now,
[10:57] {magoo} unfortunately...ive experienced that scenario
[10:57] {Threei} own it
[10:57] {Threei} can't lose on it
[10:57] {Threei} No stock is ever your friend
[10:57] {Threei} nor enemy for that matter
[10:57] {nemo} damn rimm C&H
[10:57] {Threei} they have no idea you exist
[10:59] {magoo} ive left following rimm last 3 sessions..ive been way off on it..
[10:59] {nemo} it's holding with q pullback
[11:00] {Threei} US Treasury to sell $42B 2-year notes, $39B 5-year notes, and $29B in 7-year notes
[11:06] {Threei} AIG pace picks up again
[11:13] {_phreeboy} what would you say AIG would have to hold to continue up?
[11:14] {cosmo} PETM test ....again
[11:14] {magoo} its not that kind of stok
[11:14] {Threei} I don't think there are technicals to AIG
[11:14] {magoo} it could easily red bar down to 31
[11:14] {nemo} volume has disappeare
[11:14] {Threei} it's a momo runner
[11:14] {Threei} they live in parallel universe
[11:19] {Threei} US CFTC and UK's FSA to enhance regulatory cooperation for oversight of energy futures markets
[11:19] {Threei} - the agencies will share regulations and disciplinary notices to increase cross border monitoring of oil markets
[11:21] {Threei} laugh all you want but BAC is coming on 1:2
[11:23] {fernp} I sold my BACs some centuries ago :)
[11:23] {Threei} I sold half
[11:23] {fernp} I know
[11:24] {Threei} here goes AIG murdering those who overstayed their welcome
[11:35] {cosmo} PETM test ....20 gonna melt at some point....
[11:39] {cosmo} people gotta feed their pets, ya know...
[11:44] {Threei} or not
[11:45] {cosmo} a big decision for us all
[11:45] {cosmo} the day is young
[11:45] {nemo} fas triang
[11:45] {nemo} trying
[11:46] {cosmo} time to walk the dogs
[11:55] {nemo} fas succeeded
[12:01] {Threei} hmmm
[12:01] {Threei} ese may have been hiding something from us
[12:01] {Threei} [ESE] Announces Contract Award for Its Thermoforming Business
[12:02] {Threei} and we thought he was a drummer?
[12:08] {nemo}
[12:12] {wulff} HURN seems down for the count
[12:14] {Threei} yeah, watching it
[12:14] {Threei} was downgraded just now
[12:14] {wulff} carried it overnight, but out earlier
[12:15] {Threei} by no-name firm
[12:15] {wulff} the three shmoes
[12:16] {Threei} two
[12:16] {Threei} HURN Update: Shares cut to Neutral from Outperform at a boutique firm (Boenning & Scattergood) (19.48, +0.05, 0.26%)
[12:16] {Threei} Boenning & Scattergood count for two shmoes, right?
[12:16] {wulff} were they not cut pretty badly already?
[12:17] {Threei} well... there is always "more down"...
[12:23] {magoo} IGK crusheed vad
[12:24] {magoo} WOW
[12:24] {Threei} way too thin
[12:24] {magoo} someone KICXK VAD
[12:25] {Threei} why would you want to do that
[12:37] {dino} news igk?
[12:37] {Threei} the symbol is not in my newsfeed
[12:38] {Threei} can't find out
[12:39] {dino} nothing on yahoo
[12:43] {nemo} how's the coma vad?
[12:44] {nemo} that good...
[12:45] {nemo} fas testing top of range
[12:45] {Threei} sigh
[12:46] {dino} aef?
[12:47] {dino} had a nice nap
[12:49] {dino} aef dropping fast
[12:50] {nemo} you short it?
[12:50] {dino} no want long at .20
[12:51] {dino} not going to get there tho
[12:54] {magoo} vad AIG trying it seems
[12:55] {dino} aef sm l .83
[12:55] {nemo} indexes and fas pulling back
[12:59] {Threei} yes mags... but it's absolute 50/50
[13:03] {dino} stopped aef
[13:05] {Threei} you do know who is on TV, right?
[13:07] {nemo} Schwarzenegger
[13:08] {Threei} you wish
[13:08] {nemo} nah, not really
[13:13] {nemo} aig going fro 32
[13:13] {nemo} wow
[13:13] {nemo} got whiplash on that one
[13:14] {Threei} (US) President Obama: Affirms position on public health insurance option is 'unchanged,' calls option "a good idea, but not the only aspect of reform" - radio interview
[13:14] {Threei} - Reminder: Back on 8/17 White House Press Sec Gibbs said Obama prefers government health-insurance option. Over the weekend that the Obama administration signaled that it was ready to abandon the idea of giving Americans the option of government-run insurance as part of a new health care system.
[13:27] {nemo} if aig doesn't stop @ 32.05 could be another good drop
[13:34] {fernp} HIG double bottom?
[13:35] {Threei} can't tell...
[13:36] {nemo} Hig's riding the 200 period moving average right now
[13:41] {nemo} aig dropped to r3
[14:01] {dino} aef rinsed
[14:03] {nemo} gotta' go... c u 2 maw row
[14:04] {fernp} bye nemo
[14:05] {Threei} take care nemo
[14:13] {magoo} vad AIG trying
[14:34] {_phreeboy} from this point what are the chances of AIG going long (own it and considering holding overnight)?
[14:35] {Threei} 50/50
[14:35] {Threei} total gambling
[14:35] {Threei} this thing can open at 40 and at 15 tomorrow with the same odds amd easiness
[14:36] {Threei} feel like in casino?
[14:37] {Threei} SBUX WSJ: Company to begin charging approx $0.25 more for certain drinks, less for others; effective Thursday in certain cities
[14:37] {Threei} - Customers to pay more for larger and complex drinks; less for smaller and more basic drinks
[14:37] {_phreeboy} better odds at craps with right hedge bets
[14:37] {Threei} there you go
[14:37] {Threei} I can't imagine why you would want to take it overnight - other than pure gambling
[14:38] {Threei} volatility is extreme, gaps can be huge
[14:38] {Threei} trading is about risk control
[14:38] {Threei} and you give up any resemblense of it by taking home such monster
[14:41] {Threei} how's this for volatility?
[14:43] {_phreeboy} do you use trend lines?
[14:43] {Threei} yes
[14:45] {fernp} BAC bounce?
[14:45] {Threei} I doubt it
[14:45] {Threei} gotta give them more room to fall before bounces become likely
[14:46] {Threei} this is that interim stage, you know...
[14:46] {Threei} when each leg down seems to be good enough for bounce
[14:46] {fernp} yes only five cents drop
[14:46] {Threei} but in reality leads to endless stops
[14:46] {Threei} jump in too early a few times,
[14:46] {Threei} and those stops however well controlled, eliminate all you made before
[14:49] {fernp} agree
[14:50] {fernp} Unfortunately, I have experienced many times what you're saying
[14:50] {dino} igk
[14:51] {dino} sm l .51 wide, gappy
[15:08] {Threei} US) US House Speaker Pelosi: Cannot pass a bill in the House that is lacking a public option
[15:08] {Threei} - Note: Pelosi in the past has noted that a public option has strong support
[15:16] {Threei} breakout or fizzle out?
[15:17] {Threei} you gotta give it to the market... what a perfection in finding the way to frustrate those who follow "normal" logic
[15:17] {Threei} who didn't "know for sure" the uptrend has ended
[15:44] {fernp} have a nice evening. see u tomorrow
[15:44] {Threei} take care fern
[15:56] {Threei} AIG dump on the close
[15:56] {Threei} doesn't really mean much
[15:56] {Threei} cxan be justr prfit taking
[15:56] {wulff} Tried to grab a RIMM long here but not in the mood
[15:56] {Threei} only better typed
[15:56] {wulff} teh stock that is
[15:56] {wulff} the
[15:56] {Threei} too close to close
[15:57] {wulff} entered the 3:30 run
[15:57] {Threei} okay guys... August is almost over
[15:57] {Threei} thank you all
[15:57] {Threei} have a good evening
[15:57] {larisa} see you :)
[15:57] {Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:58] {wulff} LAter all
[16:01] {magoo} ty vad everyone