Monday, December 6, 2010

Dec 06 2010

Day started with two stops, but we got it back with two wins, and then this nice trade came along to save the day. Made Catch of the Day too.

Clear-cut example of a bull flag formation, applicable in any time frame. Shallow pullback on decreasing volume (annotated on the chart) is general idea of the trade. We also need a trigger and stop level to give us the structure of the trade; those levels are formed by the mini-range stock creates as it finishes forming the flag (again, see the chart). Pleasant side of this particular play was instant gratification as price spiked into 1:4 risk/reward almost immediately.

Session Time: Mon Dec 06 00:00:00 2010

[08:23] {Threei}  RMBS Guides Q4 R$85-93M v $42Me (R$40-50M prior guidance); cites newly signed patent license agreement with Elpida
[08:51] {Threei}
[08:57] {dino} gm all
[08:57] {Threei}  dino :)
[08:59] {davd} hi all
[08:59] {Threei}  see RMBS?
[08:59] {Threei}  davd :)
[09:02] {harth} Good Morning All:)
[09:02] {dino} :)
[09:02] {Threei}  harth :)
[09:02] {dino} rdwr
[09:09] {stewy} good morning everyone
[09:09] {RonS} gm, rmbs 6.3 mil sh short, 8.8 days to cover ave vol
[09:10] {Threei}  stewy, ron :)
[09:11] {Threei}  these 2x "misses" in estimates leave one highly suspicious of how the estimates are made
[09:11] {Threei}  Guides Q4 R$85-93M v $42Me
[09:11] {Threei}  say what? :)
[09:15] {ese} morning
[09:15] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:16] {ese} massively sick this morning.....aching bones the whole business.......anyone else with a christmas cold
[09:17] {Threei}  wow... you shouldn't kiss that sneezinbg santa helper I guess
[09:17] {ese} i know i know........
[09:18] {Threei}  but honestly, I can't blame you
[09:20] {ese} rdwr vrgy.....going nuts
[09:20] {ese} take over talk looks like
[09:21] {larisa} gm :)
[09:21] {ese} laris
[09:21] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:21] {larisa} ese, vad :)
[09:24] {davd} fyi sndk downgrade
[09:24] {jfjf64} MORNIN
[09:24] {ese} dave jf
[09:24] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:24] {Threei}  with meaningful target 48 too, davd
[09:25] {davd} yea, i know, just wanted to make sure anyone of interest was fully informed.
[09:27] {Threei}  let's let RMBS calm down a little and see if there is something readable
[09:28] {ese} thats one heck of a nice daily chart rmbs
[09:29] {Threei}  yes but...
[09:29] {Threei}  gap is hirribly big, and the reasion is highly suspect
[09:29] {ese} hmmmmmmm
[09:29] {Threei}  and my typing is as always
[09:29] {Threei}  RIMM is flirting with green
[09:30] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar European stocks rally to session highs heading into NY open helped by chatter of a positive think tank report
[09:32] {dino} bth continues down
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .75 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:36] {Threei}  RMBS looks ready for bounce
[09:36] {Threei}  small shares .25 break
[09:37] {Threei}  if holding above .10
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .20 break half lot
[09:40] {Threei}  stop under .10
[09:40] {Threei}  no go
[09:40] {Threei}  RMBS invalidated
[09:42] {ese} hugh guidance up for rmbs
[09:43] {Threei}  double
[09:44] {ese} dino ya there.....DG
[09:45] {dino} y
[09:45] {dino} secondary
[09:45] {ese} dg another good q and dnf 2 bills
[09:45] {ese} down
[09:45] {dino} dead for day or two
[09:46] {dino} 25 m sh
[09:46] {Threei} Inc Planning to launch an online streaming video product to compete with Netflix - Business Insider
[09:46] {Threei}  - The streaming package could get bundled in with Amazon's $79 per year Amazon prime service. Netflix's streaming video only service costs $95 a year.
[09:46] {Threei}  NFLX doesn't look scared
[09:47] {stewy} x consolidating?
[09:47] {dino} celg
[09:47] {Threei}  feels so
[09:47] {Threei}  62 break is a valid try
[09:48] {dino} celg odd
[09:48] {ese} that should be enough to kick start it up
[09:51] {Threei}  V invalidated
[09:51] {Threei}  X
[09:51] {ese} 21 looks really good for rmbs imo...that would be the in for sure point for me
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break half lot
[09:53] {Threei}  stop above .65
[09:56] {Threei}  no go
[09:56] {ese} vvus headed dn....errectile disfunction drug...interesting co incidence
[09:56] {Threei}  Monday curse is back or what
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .10 break
[10:00] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[10:00] {dino} celg sm l .26
[10:00] {ese} rmbs...1st short covering rally
[10:01] {Threei}  AIG 1:1
[10:01] {jfjf64} break  the curse
[10:02] {jfjf64} aig
[10:02] {Threei}  half of it for now anyway
[10:02] {Threei}  2 stops, so need another win to start anew, lol
[10:04] {ese} nice .10 there vad
[10:04] {ese} 50,000 shs.....?  you done for the day?
[10:06] {Threei}  I wish
[10:06] {ese} L rmbs 1/2.66
[10:06] {dino} celg stopped -.33
[10:08] {ese} L rmbs avg .69
[10:08] {RonS} hgsi...fda decision on that lupus drug punted for 3 mos and stock green
[10:09] {dino} cats and dogs
[10:09] {RonS} ?
[10:10] {dino} world messed up
[10:10] {Threei}  lol
[10:10] {Threei}  AIG 1:2 for patient types
[10:10] {Threei}  which is not me in this case
[10:10] {dino} sm l gil .55
[10:11] {dino} all green
[10:13] {Threei}  awww
[10:13] {Threei}  thought of RMBS .50 short
[10:13] {Threei}  and never found the cajones to call it
[10:14] {ese} stopped rmbs ..50 -.19
[10:15] {ese} you would have been correct
[10:19] {Threei}  watching LVS
[10:19] {Threei}  not sure for what yet, bounce or something else
[10:19] {dino} aro holds well w/gs sell
[10:23] {Threei}  not right time yet for LVS bounce, IMO
[10:26] {dino} aro sm l .15
[10:27] {Threei}  LVS
[10:27] {Threei}  dive under 49 and cross back if holding .90 is long
[10:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  49 break if holding above .90
[10:30] {Threei}  1:1
[10:34] {jfjf64} nice
[10:34] {jfjf64} trade
[10:34] {jfjf64} lvs
[10:35] {Threei}  remediated the stops
[10:35] {Threei}  we are even, market and I
[10:35] {jfjf64} yes
[10:35] {Threei}  time to pull ahead
[10:35] {jfjf64} yes
[10:35] {jfjf64} lk ya style
[10:35] {jfjf64} lol
[10:35] {jfjf64} now  we  send  it  to  the  moon   ALICE
[10:41] {Threei}  don't oversit it jf
[10:41] {dino} forr?
[10:42] {jfjf64} IM  LONG GONE
[10:42] {Threei}  OK
[10:42] {Threei}  I don't see any news for FORR dino
[10:43] {ese} what makes this stock tick...oxps.....options express.......3 days 3 huge gaps up
[10:44] {dino} $3 dividend i think
[10:44] {Threei}  declared huge dividend a few days ago
[10:44] {Threei}  4.50
[10:45] {ese} ok thats huge
[10:45] {ese} is it a big clearing house or something like that
[10:48] {Threei}  ECB's Bini-Smaghi: EMU backstop fund (EFSF) is big enough for the time being - CNBC taped interview
[10:48] {Threei}  - Notes the euro is still a relatively young currency and is being tested more than other currencies
[10:48] {dino} they will have to open the printing presses or the euro is toast, imo
[10:49] {Threei}  well, printing just wins them some time....
[10:49] {Threei}  whole thing is crambling
[10:49] {dino} it's that or default
[10:49] {jfjf64} chk
[10:49] {jfjf64} watchin
[10:50] {jfjf64} .50 ton  of shares
[10:52] {jfjf64} .48  short
[10:53] {jfjf64} tight  stop .51
[10:54] {dino} lxtc sm l .00
[10:54] {dino} ltxc
[10:56] {jfjf64} eats  .45
[10:57] {jfjf64} sd  drop
[10:57] {ese} L rmbs .23
[10:58] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .80 break
[10:58] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:00] {jfjf64} mtw
[11:00] {jfjf64} .36 break
[11:01] {jfjf64} 5 min lokks good
[11:01] {jfjf64} imo
[11:02] {ese} L rmbs avg .33
[11:04] {jfjf64} in
[11:05] {RonS} mtw...lbo rumors...
[11:05] {jfjf64} sit  back  and  mk  some  cash
[11:06] {jfjf64} lol
[11:06] {jfjf64} im using 5 min  chart
[11:06] {jfjf64} might tk little
[11:07] {jfjf64} 10 min  looks wonderful
[11:07] {jfjf64} also
[11:11] {jfjf64} out.45
[11:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .40 break
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[11:14] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break setup
[11:15] {Threei}  if works, planning to sell half near .50 and ride the break and rally
[11:15] {Threei}  nice spike
[11:15] {Threei}  one more please
[11:17] {Threei}  1:1, half out as planned
[11:17] {Threei}  1:2 1/4 more
[11:17] {Threei}  missed 1:4
[11:18] {Threei}  was it a pure unbridled beauty or what
[11:19] {Threei}  1:3
[11:19] {Threei}  oulling ahead
[11:19] {Threei}  pulling too
06[11:19] * Threei slaps jfjf64 around a bit with a large roll of cash
[11:20] {dino} partial bth .91 l
[11:20] {Threei}  best trade of the day, no single taker?
[11:20] {Threei}  you all asleep?
[11:20] {stewy} guess i'm not worthy of
[11:21] {stewy} unbridled beauts
[11:21] {Threei}  lol, say what?
[11:21] {stewy} didn't get it
[11:21] {Threei}  Goldman Sachs head bond strategist Garzarelli: prefer stocks and corporate bonds over US Treasuries
[11:22] {stewy} but i see the setup clearly
[11:22] {Threei}  why? .40 break was fairly slow
[11:22] {Threei}  and even gave a second chance
[11:22] {Threei}  pulled back to .35 after a break
[11:23] {stewy} was watchin x; must stick to one at a time, right?
[11:23] {Threei}  that's what our wives say
[11:23] {stewy} so you have more than one?
06[11:23] * Threei notices larisa and ilana, hides behind the big rock
[11:32] {jfjf64} nice  gld
[11:32] {jfjf64} 3i
[11:32] {jfjf64} we  +
[11:32] {Threei}  ty
[11:32] {Threei}  we are
[11:32] {Threei}  starting day with two stops and three invalidations, took dedication to break the trend
[11:33] {jfjf64} faith =3i
[11:33] {jfjf64} modays  always  mk ya  wk
[11:36] {dino} manic monday
[11:50] {ese} L rmbs avg still .33
[11:56] {dino}  bth stopped
[11:59] {Threei}  dion't forget to look at today's Catch of the Day guys
[12:00] {Threei}  GLD trade broken down with annotations on the chart so you can see the reasoning
[12:00] {Threei}  and trade structure
[12:00] {Threei}  first one who asks where to look gets trouted
[12:02] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou: targeting moving out of crisis by 2013
[12:02] {Threei}  - Believe eurobond idea needs serious consideration.
[12:02] {davd} i think i need to get trouted, not sure where to look?
[12:02] {Threei}
06[12:02] * Threei slaps davd around a bit with a large trout
[12:02] {davd} just in time for us to get out of afghanistan by 2014
[12:02] {Threei}  lol
[12:03] {Threei}  that's trading log, updated each day after the market close,
[12:03] {Threei}  on the days when we have interesting educational chart blue blurb on the top shows it
[12:03] {stewy} u posting it at the other place?
[12:03] {Threei}  like this one
[12:04] {Threei}
[12:04] {Threei}  other place?
[12:04] {Threei}  or
[12:04] {stewy} cara
[12:04] {Threei}  oh yes
[12:04] {Threei}  but they have no trading log there
[12:05] {Threei}  chart with comments only, so if you want to see details of the trade call, you can see them in the log only
[12:06] {stewy} thx
[12:07] {Threei}  market stalled
[12:08] {Threei}  you still in RMBS ese?
[12:09] {RonS} i am
[12:09] {Threei}  looks like has a good chance to resume slow creep upward
[12:10] {Threei}  stop is tight enough from here
[12:10] {Threei}  break of .50 should launch faster move
[12:11] {RonS} l rmbs small, will cue for that 3i
[12:14] {RonS} whr sm s .40
[12:15] {ese} hi vad yup........
[12:15] {Threei}  looks good so far... requires patience though
[12:16] {ese} been building a position in it avg .33 3k so far........but thats as far as i think i will go for a position
[12:18] {Threei}  FNM/FRE say no foreclosures during two weeka of holidays
[12:18] {Threei}  isn't that nice
[12:18] {ese} at 11:16 eastern it looked like it was a reverse head and shoulders but has now formed dinos double bottom 11;40 eastern....that looks much stronger and i believe it up from here
[12:19] {ese} it's
[12:19] {Threei}  I don't want any details on what "dino's double bottom" means
[12:20] {ese} ahhhhh ok....didn't mean to upset'll never happen again
[12:20] {Threei}  lol
[12:20] {Threei}  here comes RMBS
[12:20] {ese} target is .00 by the way
[12:23] {ese} I have to admit day trading can be a very civilized way to make a living
[12:23] {ese} ahhhhhhh!!!!!!!!! ohhhhhhhhhh my god!!!!!!!!!!!!!! whats happening.............
[12:23] {ese} phewwwww........nothing.......i'm ok now
[12:24] {jfjf64} ya scaring me ese
[12:24] {ese} lol
[12:24] {ese} you?......damn....i scare myself most times
[12:25] {Threei}  civilized?
[12:25] {jfjf64} you  gotta start  beatin  ya  drum  louder  when that happens
[12:25] {Threei}  you mean meeting an investor on the road, putting knife to his throat and taking 15 cents on 5K shgares from him is civilized?
[12:26] {jfjf64} easy  3i
[12:26] {jfjf64} ya not in russia anymore
[12:28] {ese} well.........i've come to believe it's civilized
[12:30] {jfjf64} gld
[12:30] {jfjf64} bounce
[12:30] {jfjf64} ??
[12:31] {Threei}  I'd orefer it to retest .80 once again
[12:31] {Threei}  and of holding, buy a break of .90
[12:31] {Threei}  so it would be a clear double bottom
[12:31] {jfjf64} ty
[12:31] {Threei}  guess who is on tv
[12:32] {jfjf64} nemo
[12:32] {Threei}  where is that drunkard btw
[12:32] {jfjf64} lol
[12:32] {jfjf64} hangin  with  les
[12:34] {jfjf64} mkt poppin
[12:35] {Threei}  LVS
[12:35] {Threei}  watch for dive under 49, little hesitation, holding abive .90 and cross of 49 again for long trigger
[12:40] {jfjf64} dirty dog with fleas
[12:40] {Threei}  no chance for entry... oh well
[12:43] {jfjf64} gonna get lunch  talk  little
[12:47] {Threei}  whoa
[12:47] {Threei}  LVS
[12:47] {Threei}  and I jst started typing .30 short alert
[12:47] {Threei}  news hit obviously
[12:49] {Threei}  no news here still
[12:54] {Threei}  so... what was it?
[12:58] {RonS} i still have nothing lvs
[12:58] {Threei}  neither do I
[12:59] {Threei}  there is a negative headline on LPS
[12:59] {dino} lps
[12:59] {Threei}  can it be that audio news clinets got them mixed up?
[12:59] {dino} nwn
[12:59] {dino} abm
[13:00] {Threei}  LPS Ticking lower on report that LPS may have produced more faulty foreclosure documents than previously suspected (29.89, -1.13, -3.64%)
[13:03] {Threei}  PKE
[13:04] {Threei}  special dividend $1/share
[13:06] {Threei}  US) Fed's Lacker: Additional expansion of the balance sheet may create more complications in withdrawl of stimulus due to need for a more 'rapid reduction' of balance sheet at a later date
[13:13] {Threei}  lol
[13:14] {Threei}  according to wikileaks, high ranking chinese official found unflattering comments about himself while googling his name
[13:14] {Threei}  which started whole China vs Google thing
[13:26] {dino} lol, if it was a chinese citizen, they would've just shot him
[13:26] {Threei}  totally
[13:36] {ese} I gotta go still L rmbs .33,,,,cya tomorrow.....what can i say it's concert season
[13:37] {Threei}  take care ese
[14:09] {Threei}  Hearing Morgan Stanley makes cautious comments on Natural Gas names
[14:09] {Threei}  - Says 2011 outlook could be negative catalysts.
[14:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break
[14:19] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[14:27] {Threei}  it was 2 cents from 1:1... I'd say let's trail to under .55
[14:27] {Threei}  tighten risk control
[14:29] {Threei}  ok... no means no
[14:29] {Threei}  should have taken scalp I guess
[14:35] {Threei}  RDWR Moves higher as Cramer rehashes earlier press reports of a possible deal in the mid $40/shr range
[14:35] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier Israeli press cited a possible offer from Riverbed that may trump an HPQ offer (related HPQ RVBD FFIV CSCO JNPR )
[14:57] {dino} ice sm l .50
[15:02] {Threei}  darn SLW
[15:02] {Threei}  rinsed us
[15:04] {Threei}  lousy 6 cents but still
[15:09] {dino} ice to .65
[15:10] {dino} out +.65
[15:10] {dino} opps +.15
[15:12] {Threei}  4.5 times less nice but nice anyway
[15:16] {dino} slow day
[15:17] {Threei}  yeah... vreep up
[15:17] {Threei}  creep too
[15:18] {jfjf64} lvs
[15:18] {jfjf64} inv   c/h
[15:19] {jfjf64} .15  break
[15:19] {jfjf64} sittin lk a snipper
[15:26] {dino} out gil +.05
[15:30] {jfjf64} lvs
[15:31] {jfjf64} crosshairs ready
[15:32] {jfjf64} fire
[15:33] {jfjf64} die
06[15:34] * Threei hits LVSA over the head woth 2x4
[15:34] {jfjf64} comon
[15:35] {jfjf64} relode
[15:35] {dino} lol jf, spelling/typing curse of vad
[15:35] {Threei}  sigh
[15:35] {Threei}  lol
[15:36] {dino} back in ten
[15:36] {jfjf64} .20 key
[15:39] {jfjf64} leg dn  lvs
[15:39] {jfjf64} jf  reminds  himself  stop  ther  4  treason
[15:42] {jfjf64} little sellin  pressure   bg winner
[15:45] {dino} lol, now talking to yourself
[15:45] {jfjf64} y
[15:45] {jfjf64} e
[15:45] {jfjf64} s
[15:45] {Threei}  why not... I do, day after day
[15:45] {dino} me too
[15:45] {Threei}  even self doesn't always honor me with answer
[15:46] {jfjf64} relode
[15:46] {jfjf64} fire
[15:46] {jfjf64} damn
[15:48] {jfjf64} 1/1
[15:48] {jfjf64} halfout
[15:49] {Threei}  nice
[15:49] {jfjf64} stop breakeven
[15:49] {Threei}  if we had more time, this RIMM chart would have me looking for a break
[15:51] {jfjf64} hit it baby
[15:51] {Threei}  nice breakdown
[15:51] {Threei}  good persistence, jf
[15:52] {jfjf64} done
[15:53] {dino} gld spike
[15:53] {dino} gj jf
[15:54] {jfjf64} ty
[15:54] {jfjf64} had a plan
[15:54] {jfjf64} lol
[15:54] {jfjf64} market  was  movind  higher
[15:54] {jfjf64} she wasnt budging
[15:55] {jfjf64} that  was  key
[15:55] {jfjf64} imo
[15:55] {jfjf64} look  this  bad  boy  now
[15:56] {Threei}  yup
[15:58] {Threei}  wow, are we finally going to have a red close?
[15:58] {Threei}  true rarity lately
[15:59] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {jfjf64} ty
[15:59] {dino} cya
[15:59] {jfjf64} cya dino
[15:59] {Threei}  spot gold all time new high btw
[15:59] {jfjf64} what is  it
[15:59] {Threei}  gold
[16:00] {jfjf64} yes
[16:00] {Threei}  it's a nice-lloking yellowish metal
[16:00] {Threei}  but that's not important right now
[16:00] {jfjf64} price
[16:00] {jfjf64} der
[16:00] {Threei}  1422.5
[16:00] {jfjf64} im lazy
[16:00] {jfjf64} wow
[16:01] {Threei}  that was homage to Leslie Nielsen btw
[16:01] {dino} cya jf
[16:01] {harth} I got it, cya Tues
[16:01] {Threei}  :)
[16:02] {dino} want to see a paint the tape, look bth close
[16:02] {dino} pushed it 2 bucks
[16:02] {stewy} good night all. c u tomorrow
[16:02] {dino} gn