Monday, January 10, 2011

Jan 10 2011

Our "can do no wrong" streak continues, with trade after trade working as if they are there just to please us. Fine, we will take it. Got a "catch of the day" chart too.

What do you do when you miss the trade?

X formed nice double bottom with $54.80 support, very clean setup. The only problem was, it was practically impossible to execute. Instead of opening the doors and letting us passengers in, it simply took off barely slowing down at the platform. 40 cents spike left us in the dust. Chasing into such spikes is the last thing you want to do. Instead, we waited for a pullback into support. Visually, it's quite easy to assign a role of support to 55; all we need is a confirmation. That came as X touched 55.01 on a sharp pullback, paused and bounced giving us low risk entry with stop right under that new support. Chart annotations illustrate the whole trade.

To answer the question at the beginning - you wait for the market to come back to you and form recognizable setup.

Session Time: Mon Jan 10 00:00:00 2011
[08:08] {nemo} REE MCP about to break
[08:47] {nemo} lvs above 50
[08:48] {Threei}  with negative market, too
[08:48] {nemo} ree mcp positive, but market looks like it wants up
[08:49] {nemo} sohu
[08:49] {nemo} sorry
[08:53] {davd} hi all. good morning
[08:53] {Threei}  davd :)
[09:04] {nemo} I see "Mr. Horseshoe up the..." is here
[09:07] {magoo} morning
[09:08] {dino} gm all
[09:08] {dino} ed's getting hit, stra, esy
[09:08] {dino} apol
[09:10] {dino} esy=esi
[09:10] {RonS} stra reported enrollment -20%
[09:10] {Threei}  magoo, dino, ron :)
[09:10] {RonS} cold morning here, foot of snow
[09:11] {nemo} we're getting whacked on Wednesday
[09:11] {dino} tuesday here
[09:12] {Threei}  we are not getting whacked... sorry guys
[09:13] {Threei}  small stock trying to break high on daily: RAS
[09:13] {Threei}  broke on daily I mean,
[09:13] {Threei}  trying to break on intraday
[09:17] {ese} morning
[09:17] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:18] {harth} morning all:)
[09:18] {Threei}  harth :)
[09:23] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:27] {jfjf64} LETS GO JETS
[09:27] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:27] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:29] {davd} go jets
[09:29] {nemo} go patriots
[09:29] {jfjf64} dont mind him  david
[09:29] {nemo} GO PATRIOTS!
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:33] {Threei}  watch X for long entry near .10 - .20
[09:33] {dino} j e t s
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW invalidated
[09:34] {Threei}  in X
[09:34] {Threei}  .13
[09:34] {Threei}  stop under 55
[09:35] {Threei}  half out
[09:35] {Threei}  .27
[09:35] {jfjf64} pla
[09:35] {jfjf64} bunnies  are  back
[09:36] {Threei}  stop to .10
[09:36] {nemo} bunnies?  got one sitting behind my desk
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:37] {Threei}  no go X
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW sorry
[09:37] {Threei}  X is fine so far
[09:38] {Threei}  want it somewhgere above .40 for exit
[09:38] {Threei}  here we go
[09:38] {Threei}  out
[09:38] {Threei}  .42
[09:38] {jfjf64} i need  more  cofee
[09:38] {jfjf64} lost
[09:39] {Threei}  ?
[09:39] {jfjf64} slw   x
[09:39] {jfjf64} x  slw
[09:39] {jfjf64} lol
[09:39] {dino}  sm l ceph .00
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .75
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:41] {jfjf64} thats  better
[09:41] {Threei}  lol
[09:41] {jfjf64} .59
[09:41] {jfjf64} out
[09:41] {jfjf64} yeah
[09:42] {Threei}  1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to abiove .60
[09:44] {Threei}  out last piece
[09:47] {ese} solars
[09:47] {dino} mos wants gap
[09:47] {ese} ldk
[09:47] {dino} ceph stop is .69 fwiw
[09:48] {dino} mos gap fill
[09:49] {nemo} aig short below .78?
[09:49] {Threei}  not sure
[09:50] {Threei}  something's wrong about it
[09:50] {Threei}  I'd rather look for long on it
[09:50] {Threei}  .85 break
[09:51] {dino} ceph stop -.31
[09:51] {Threei}  watching RIMM
[09:51] {dino} all red
[09:52] {Threei}  look how AIG is holding
[09:52] {Threei}  not only it's a long, it's not a scalp
[09:52] {Threei}  1:1 if you went for it
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .50 break if holding .40
[09:54] {Threei}  and 10 cents ranges if loses it
[09:55] {ese} L ldk .35
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {dino} al red
[09:58] {dino} all
[10:01] {nemo} DO long?
[10:01] {dino} mos sm l .00 stop lod
[10:02] {Threei}  spread DO...
[10:02] {nemo} hah?
[10:03] {nemo} .02
[10:03] {Threei}  you OK with spread widening to 7-10 cents at times?
[10:03] {Threei}  see?
[10:03] {nemo} perish the thought
[10:03] {Threei}  chart is right, execution is tough
[10:04] {dino} ceph sm l .50
[10:06] {nemo} tck hammer volume
[10:06] {nemo} bounced at pivot suport
[10:09] {ese} ldk stopped...
[10:09] {ese} .13
[10:09] {ese} -.22  daaaqaaaaaaaaaa
[10:09] {Threei}  watching X for pullback entry
[10:09] {Threei}  around 55
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .10 break
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:13] {Threei}  1;2
[10:13] {Threei}  1:3, out
[10:13] {jfjf64} ty
[10:14] {Threei}  yw
[10:14] {dino} gj
[10:14] {jfjf64} you were all ovr that 3i
[10:15] {Threei}  you'd think it was a blonde and I was a drunk sailor
[10:16] {dino} like flies on a rib roast
[10:16] {Threei}  nah, I like my analogy better
[10:16] {nemo} bacon?
[10:16] {dino} how about rats on cheese
[10:16] {jfjf64} what ever mks  ya  happy  3i
[10:16] {nemo} white on rice
[10:16] {Threei}  it's a flies part that I am not delighted abuot
[10:17] {jfjf64} nobody talkin  to ya  patriot fan
[10:17] {dino} lol go jets
[10:17] {nemo} PATRIOTS
[10:17] {jfjf64} nemo on pay no mind list this week
[10:18] {nemo} speaking of lists...jf
[10:18] {jfjf64} im from BOOSTON
[10:19] {jfjf64} LOL
[10:33] {dino}  .
[10:38] {Threei}  watching X for pullback entry around .40
[10:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .50 break
[10:42] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:43] {Threei}  1:1
[10:44] {Threei}  1:2
[10:47] {Threei}  out last part
[10:47] {Threei}  fish in a barrel
[10:48] {jfjf64} ty
[10:48] {Threei}  yw
[10:48] {jfjf64} ddrunkin sailor
[10:48] {Threei}  anyone's awake aside of jf??
[10:48] {nemo} no
[10:48] {dino}  no
[10:48] {Threei}  wrong question... anyone's trading?
[10:48] {Threei}  'cause being awake is not necessary to trade
[10:50] {Threei}  OK... going to sleep too
[10:52] {davd} i am
[10:52] {Threei}  asleep? or trading?
[10:52] {Threei}  or both
[10:52] {davd} trading, or trying...
[10:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  34 break
[10:54] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:57] {dino} ceph stopped
[11:02] {dino} idx sm l .42
[11:03] {ese} L idx .47
[11:03] {ese} got nothin better to do
[11:04] {nemo} what happened in Indonesia?
[11:04] {ese} those prints at .46 and .47 sre mine
[11:04] {ese} mine mine mine.....allll mine!!!!!!1
[11:06] {Threei}  been a while since we've seen strong contenders for the most idiotic statement of the day, but here comes one:
[11:06] {Threei}  (EU) Tax official: a financial transaction tax (Tobin tax) would give a boost to govt revenues; believe US is ready to discuss a transaction tax
[11:08] {dino} won't happen
[11:08] {dino} esi lod
[11:08] {dino} ayi sm l .02
[11:09] {dino} jazz
[11:19] {dino} out mos +.71 at .71
[11:20] {jfjf64} gj
[11:22] {dino} ty
[11:25] {dino} celg
[11:38] {dino} celg sm l .90
[11:46] {dino} celg stopped
[11:47] {dino} -.42
[11:53] {nemo} X
[11:54] {dino} rinsed
[12:00] {nemo} aig creating nice rainge
[12:01] {Threei}  59 - .10?
[12:01] {nemo} not anymore
[12:02] {nemo} hey you jets fans just saw this quote:
[12:03] {nemo} "Jets should send Sanchez to Iran so he can overthrow Ahmedinejad.''
[12:03] {RonS} lol
[12:03] {nemo} I wonder if this drop in AIG was to shake out hands and it breaks .20 here
[12:10] {dino} lol nemo
[12:18] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Fisher: QE2 purchases will be completed as scheduled, unclear what impacts the program will have upon data
[12:18] {Threei}  - Wary of extending the program beyond its current plan; deflation risks are fading
[12:18] {Threei}  - Seeing a more positive tone in the economy, strong USD will not slow recovery or exports
[12:18] {Threei}  - Recent rise in bond yields reflect confidence in the economy; business confidence is key to a recovery
[12:19] {Threei}  if it's "unclear what impacts the program will have upon data" why do it?
[12:31] {nemo} whaddya' think about aig Vad
[12:31] {Threei}  I don't think it's a valid trade either way
[12:32] {nemo} volume starting to increase on it from 12:18
[12:32] {Threei}  potential for a rinse is greater than for a move
[12:37] {dino}  mos sm l .25
[12:40] {ese} L ldk .28
[12:40] {ese} large
[13:00] {dino} sm l celg .30
[13:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .70 break half lot
[13:00] {Threei}  just a scalp, and kind of 51/49
[13:01] {Threei}  so, only for those who are bored and don't mind to throw some chips on the table
[13:04] {dino} gj ldk es
[13:12] {ese} tks dino
[13:12] {Threei}  wow RIMM
[13:12] {ese} i'm out 1/2 at .44   still 3k to go
[13:13] {ese} still hangin in there with idx as well still in
[13:13] {ese} stop is break even .28 for ldk
[13:14] {ese} on balance
[13:14] {Threei}  nice trade
[13:15] {dino} yes idx
[13:15] {ese} i'll take it......assuming it doesn't hit my stop am probably gonna a K overnight
[13:15] {ese} carry a K
[13:29] {dino}  mos to /70
[13:29] {dino} .70
[13:29] {dino} stopped +.45 at .70
[13:31] {nemo} lll long .71?
[13:32] {Threei}  hmm?
[13:32] {Threei}  what symbol again?
[13:32] {nemo} LLL
[13:32] {dino} out ayi .40, +.38
[13:33] {Threei}  it's at 76
[13:33] {dino} celg to .70
[13:33] {nemo} sorry .01
[13:34] {Threei}  I guess
[13:34] {nemo} your enthusiasm is infectious
[13:35] {Threei}  well...
[13:35] {dino} out celg .73, +.43
[13:35] {Threei}  market trends up, this thing did nothing but slide down
[13:35] {Threei}  could try and bounce finally, but not exactly the kind that makes me feel all giddy
[13:35] {nemo} obviously
[13:36] {nemo} DO coming into support
[13:38] {Threei}  RIMM's pulling back
[13:38] {Threei}  should be interesting between .50 and .60
[13:41] {ese} DANG..........sure missed that
[13:42] {nemo} spy's uptrend about to run into it's downtrend
[13:42] {ese} bizzare......Dangdang inc.
[13:42] {ese} Commerce China
[13:46] {RonS} 1:29 est dang filed a 13g that shows FMR (Fidelity) holds 16 mil sh, 17.6% oustanding
[13:47] {RonS} ...and yet Fidelity has no shares to short...bastards...
[13:53] {Threei}  (PO) Bank of Portugal's Costa: evaluating the economic situation in the country; trajectory of Portugal debt is unsustainable;- Says need to create a strategy for sustainable development.
[13:55] {dino} and last week portugal said basically, "no worroes"
[13:55] {dino} worries
[13:55] {Threei}  but of course
[13:55] {Threei}  "we don't need more capital"
[13:56] {RonS} this is leadership? sate the obvious followed by a statement of the more obvious?
[13:56] {RonS} state
[13:56] {Threei}  it sure is
[13:57] {Threei}  jave you seen classic Lenin stutes?
[13:57] {Threei}  statues
[13:57] {Threei}  he has an arm extended in this direction-showing jesture
[13:57] {Threei}  that's all leader is expected to do - show the direction where cheese lies
[13:58] {ese} gotta go  cya tomorrow
[13:59] {_kschun} great eve to you man
[13:59] {Threei}  take care ese
[14:00] {dino} cya es
[14:23] {dino}  amrs spike
[14:39] {_kschun} chat still running?
[14:40] {Threei}  ?
[14:40] {_kschun} o.k. sorry, had some problems with my computer... all good now :-)
[14:41] {dino} lol, nice spread gni
[14:44] {dino} mt l .50
[14:44] {Threei}  as often with these slow crawl-up days, strong active morning with plenty of good trades, and then day-long stall
[14:56] {Threei}  let's make bets
[14:56] {Threei}  break or reversal?
[14:56] {dino}  going to flat
[14:56] {Threei}  'cause if break, LVS looks a the rsistance and big offers to take
[14:57] {_kschun} dont think this market will break
[14:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .22 break
[14:57] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[14:58] {Threei}  it just did
[15:01] {_kschun} yeap, but don't like the volume and TICK. not saying I dont trade long, just saying SPY isnt' looking for me to break
[15:06] {_kschun} looking a lot better already
[15:14] {Threei}  1:1
[15:15] {dino} gj
[15:15] {Threei}  "can do no wron" streak
[15:15] {Threei}  my best week this year
[15:15] {nemo} it's monday
[15:16] {Threei}  I mean last week
[15:16] {nemo} dino, you see rovi?
[15:17] {_kschun} :-)
[15:18] {_kschun} still a lot of reserves at the bid in LVS
[15:18] {_kschun} or at least looking like that
[15:18] {dino} no
[15:18] {Threei}  btw, don't forget top look at today's catch of the day
[15:19] {dino} heck of a range
[15:19] {Threei}  haven't posted any this year yet, but it's time to wake up
[15:20] {Threei}  1:2
[15:21] {nemo} aig miht be a pullback short
[15:23] {_kschun} dino: no?
[15:23] {dino} responding to nemo's question
[15:23] {dino} on rovi
[15:24] {dino} mt to .51
[15:25] {dino} out
[15:25] {_kschun} ah o.k. :-)
[15:26] {dino} idx to .14 thing is dead
[15:28] {Threei}  1:3
[15:28] {Threei}  over and out
[15:28] {jfjf64} nj
[15:28] {jfjf64} gj
[15:29] {Threei}  make up your mind jf...
[15:29] {Threei}  n or g
[15:29] {jfjf64} both same
[15:30] {jfjf64} missed trade
[15:30] {jfjf64} but very nice
[15:30] {Threei}  how can you miss such a slow trade
[15:30] {_kschun} :-) VAD
[15:30] {jfjf64} just got  bk to office
[15:31] {Threei}  oh great... ths is thwe guy who first yells NO when I ask ig I can go home
[15:31] {dino} out idx .19, -.23
[15:31] {nemo} sounds like one of my trades Dino
[15:31] {jfjf64} thought my  sailor  was  done
[15:31] {dino} crdn
[15:31] {jfjf64} good  mornin
[15:32] {Threei}  I thought so too but then kschun came aboard, so I thought I'd fire one for him specifically
[15:32] {_kschun} thanks man LOL
[15:32] {RonS} Ceradyne Raises 2011 View To Sales $470M-$540M }CRDN       01/10 01:31 PM
[15:33] {jfjf64} ksun need to wake  up  early
[15:33] {jfjf64} eastern time  baby
[15:33] {jfjf64} thata  da way  we roll
[15:33] {_kschun} believe me man, I wake up earlier then you do :-)
[15:33] {dino} indeed
[15:33] {dino} wow did in miss gni, was 105 wheni posted it
[15:34] {_kschun} but maybe in early 2012 I will be with you guys from the beginning on
[15:34] {jfjf64} 2012
[15:34] {dino} back in ten
[15:35] {Threei}  LVS non-stop
[15:35] {Threei}  over 1:4
[15:36] {jfjf64} what was  thinkin for trade
[15:37] {_kschun} out LVS last third
[15:38] {jfjf64} break resistance
[15:38] {_kschun} dear grande maestro Vad: please allow me a question: you are also always considering sector strength/weakness in your trades? you know I am always curious...
[15:39] {_kschun} @jf: yeap, but had a 1:6 in this trade and someone taking shares at .65, so enough for me.
[15:40] {Threei}  quite standard breakout, woth market breakikng hihg too
[15:41] {jfjf64} thought i ask
[15:41] {jfjf64} not usually  ya  cup of  tea
[15:41] {Threei}  well, I do compare stock behavior to the market overall or particular sector
[15:42] {_kschun} o.k. engouh for me :-). thanks. using sector etf's to track or you just know already all the stocks :-) ?
[15:43] {Threei}  ETF or index
[15:56] {Threei}  sheesh LVS
[15:56] {Threei}  I want my shares back
[15:56] {_kschun} :-)
[16:00] {nemo} "Kschun".....kinda' sounds like a sneeze
[16:01] {_kschun} what a "sneeze"?
[16:01] {_kschun} ah o.k. I know :-) LOL
[16:01] {_kschun} it's a combination between my name and my wife's name, she comes from Shanghai, so you see, funny combo :-)
[16:02] {nemo} shi shi
[16:02] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:02] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[16:02] {jfjf64} ty
[16:02] {harth} thank you Vad:)
[16:02] {larisa} bye all :)
[16:03] {dino} apol spike on earnings
[16:04] {_kschun} great eve to all of you, thanks Vad, great show!