Thursday, April 7, 2011

Apr 07 2011

Jellyfish-like day with some nice wins but more stops than I would have liked. Fortunately we kept whole day to half lot, to get back in the groove after vacation so the damage was minimal, but finished in red nonetheless.

Session Time: Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 2011
[08:43] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 382K V 385KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.723M V 3.70ME (lowest continuing claims since Oct 2008)
[08:43] {Threei}  - Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 388K to 392K
[08:43] {Threei}  - Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.714M to 3.732M
[08:43] {davd} i got here early to be the first to say welcome back 3i
[08:43] {Threei}  thank you!
[08:44] {Threei}  (CA) CANADA FEB BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 9.9% V 1.3%E
[08:44] {Threei}  lol, who does those estimates
[08:45] {Threei}  how to you miss by factor 7 or 8
[08:45] {Threei}  how was trading this week?
[08:45] {nemo} what I miss slacker?
[08:45] {Threei}  nothing much, just firing things up
[08:45] {nemo} Monday I was hot, tues slightly positive, Wed was so cloudy, just couple small trades
[08:46] {Threei}  (PO) Portugal to make formal request for aid later today; no comment on size of request
[08:46] {Threei}  - Aid request has certain limitations due to govt's caretaker capacity, and cannot be a short term loan.
[08:46] {Threei}  ***Reminder: Portugal's snap elections on Sunday, 5th June
[08:46] {davd} nemo used oy vey and wagner in the same sentence - impressive!
[08:46] {Threei}  lol
[08:46] {Threei}  heh, I see Portugal ended pretense
[08:47] {nemo} yeah, see BBBY?
[08:47] {Threei}  who would have thought bailout was needed after all, eh
[08:48] {Threei}  yeah, reported yesterday
[08:48] {davd} in all fairness to portugal - they only said they wouldn't need a bailout every day for a week :/
[08:48] {Threei}  true
[08:52] {nemo} So, how much higher can oil go before things start to tank again
[08:52] {Threei}  who knows
[08:52] {Threei}  there are so many angles of breakage
[08:53] {davd} its like the "Acceptable amt of radioactivity" - just raise the amt when it gets to high
[08:53] {Threei}  oil being just one of them
[08:53] {nemo} Yeah, soon we won't need nightlighting or flashlights
[08:55] {Threei}  potrugal announced aid request after market yesterday? or during?
[08:56] {davd} they say wti at 109 is "critical number".  y'day wti touched 109 and the market reversed downward
[08:56] {davd} during ours, after theirs
[08:56] {Threei}  did market react at the time?
[08:57] {davd} actually, not really imo
[08:57] {Threei}  so, was pretty much a given
[08:57] {Threei}  (EU) ECB Trichet: Rate hike decision was unanimous, have not decided whether today's increase is the first of a series or not
[08:57] {Threei}  - Q&A- ECB will take the appropriate decisions to maintain price stabiliy as we have in the past
[08:57] {Threei}  - Encouraged Portugal to ask for support.
[08:57] {nemo} Oh Oh
[08:58] {davd} fxe stayed up all day but no pop/drop - gold stayed up but no pop/drop
[08:58] {RonS} gm...everyone knows that Iran has been fulminating this thing in Bahrain so how is this news?
[08:59] {Threei}  Ron :)
[08:59] {nemo} the Iraq angle
[09:02] {davd} im getting nauseous
[09:05] {ese} gm
[09:05] {larisa} gm :)
[09:06] {Threei}  ese, larisa :)
[09:06] {ese} laris david
[09:06] {davd} ese larisa
[09:06] {ese} ahhhhhhhh......Vad's back..........rested are ya chief?
[09:06] {patience} welcome back vad
[09:06] {larisa} davd, ese, vad :)
[09:06] {Threei}  patience :)
[09:06] {Threei}  pretty much ese
[09:06] {ese} patience
[09:06] {Threei}  amazing what three days with no connection to outer world do to one's psyche
[09:07] {ese} I think we've been doin ok........take the day off
[09:07] {ese} lol
[09:07] {Threei}  inhaled in two days a book that would have taken me couple weeks under "normal" way of life
[09:07] {nemo} What?  Dick and Jane?   Spot?
[09:07] {ese} can identify
[09:08] {ese} ouch
[09:08] {nemo} dcc Ron
[09:09] {gen} gm all
[09:09] {Threei}  gen :)
[09:12] {davd} patience - re currency, i have an open order to buy on ycs at 16.85 (close to 20dma)
[09:13] {RonS} zagg ziggy w/ logi distribution deal
[09:13] {RonS} 3i, does rimm daily say up to you?
[09:16] {Threei}  potential is there... break of 56 - 56.30 zone is a signal
[09:16] {Threei}  I know it sounds surprizing, unexpected etc, but SLW looks like open short to me...
[09:17] {RonS} euro tried push higher but pulled back
[09:17] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Euro drifting to session lows below 1.4260 as Trichet comments show absence of hawkish tone
[09:20] {rambler} morning.....
[09:21] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:22] {rambler} good break Vad...?
[09:22] {Threei}  beautiful
[09:24] {Threei}  even 3 days away create this impression that so many things musrt have happened
[09:25] {Threei}  then you get back, and except for Portugal everything is where you left it
[09:25] {Threei}  well, actually Portugal is there too, lol
[09:25] {rambler} you need 2 weeks...
[09:26] {Threei}  let's start with half lot trades until I feel I am back in saddle
[09:26] {patience} thanks Davd....i'll look at it now, had to see to the needs of the 5 animals before market opens...each one has their routine every morning
[09:26] {Threei}  (MX) USGS: magnitude 6.7 earthquake reported off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico
[09:27] {RonS} bill haley and the comets
[09:31] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:31] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:31] {jfjf64} wecome bk
[09:31] {nemo} you're early
[09:31] {Threei}  jf :)ty
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .65 reak
[09:31] {jfjf64} your nemo
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .75
[09:32] {ese} intelliscan not working here
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .10 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:33] {Threei}  X invalidated
[09:34] {Threei}  no go SLW
[09:34] {nemo} there ya' go shorting slw outta the box
[09:34] {nemo} that means it'll work tomorrow
[09:37] {ese} L zagg .71
[09:37] {Threei}  scanner OK here ese
[09:37] {ese} sm
[09:37] {ese} just started working
[09:37] {ese} took it at least 5 min
[09:38] {jfjf64} il flyin
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:39] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[09:40] {Threei}  still half lot, remember
[09:40] {nemo} thought it was a double
[09:40] {nemo} oh, sorry, that's my drink
[09:40] {Threei}  nope
[09:41] {ese} stop to .69 zagg
[09:41] {jfjf64} lvs pullbk
[09:42] {RonS} whither dino?
[09:42] {nemo} golfing
[09:42] {Threei}  Spot gold hits fresh all-time high above $1,462/oz
[09:43] {nemo} thank you portugal
[09:43] {Threei}  and Ben
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .50 break
[09:44] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[09:44] {Threei}  target is .80 or so
[09:44] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:45] {Threei}  not off radar though
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .40 break
[09:45] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[09:47] {Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  half out .55
[09:48] {Threei}  stop to .35
[09:48] {jfjf64} ty
[09:48] {Threei}  1:2
[09:51] {davd} short slw 46.36
[09:52] {Threei}  X stop to .45
[09:53] {ese} out zagg .75 +.04
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .75 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays above .65
[09:56] {nemo} fun,huh davd
[09:56] {Threei}  works
[09:57] {davd} si
[09:59] {nemo} iwm spy want yesterday's highs
[09:59] {Threei}  nice drop SLW
[10:01] {davd} out slw .1
[10:01] {davd} 3i is my hero
[10:01] {nemo} we'll start calling you kschun
[10:01] {davd} bless you
[10:02] {Threei}  please don't, lol
[10:02] {Threei}  I barely handled one
[10:02] {Threei}  no go RIMM
[10:08] {nemo} mmmmhhhh, I think we're in the preearnings blahhhh period
[10:08] {nemo} unless we have exogenous events
[10:08] {nemo} MCP might be bull flagging
[10:09] {jfjf64} dtop  hpq
[10:09] {jfjf64} ?
[10:09] {Threei}  .80 break is more likely
[10:12] {Threei}  (US) US Senate majority leader Reid (D-NV): Hopeful for a vote on budget by the end of the week, numbers are basically there on a budget deal
[10:12] {Threei}  - Not as optimistic as was yesterday on a budget deal, notes that ideology is preventing the deal (comments that issues surrounding abortion are making an agreement difficult)
[10:12] {Threei}  - Calls the 1 week stopgap bill proposed by the Republicans is a non starter in Congress, is a sure wy to close the Govt down
[10:15] {nemo} low volume but fast could be a short here
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLNE  .85
[10:18] {Threei}  invalidation under .70
[10:18] {davd} gov shutdwn more likelu
[10:20] {Threei}  let's make it aggressive
[10:20] {Threei}  .75 break
[10:21] {Threei}  with stop under ,65
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
[10:24] {Threei}  stop under .10, target 1:2
[10:27] {Threei}  CLNE invalidated
[10:28] {Threei}  no go fcx
[10:30] {jfjf64} 3i   take rest of day  off
[10:30] {jfjf64} lol
[10:31] {nemo} my opinion  spy bounces at pivot .59, tna/iwm should head north from that point
[10:31] {nemo} spy is at vwap now,
[10:32] {nemo} put it this way, the probability is at least a bounce there
[10:32] {Threei}  dino effect
[10:32] {Threei}  losing tune with market over vacation
[10:32] {nemo} here it is
[10:34] {jfjf64} nem  dtop
[10:35] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .60 break
[10:35] {nemo} that high volume candle set stop above .65?
[10:37] {Threei}  well, that's for a tight scalp
[10:38] {Threei}  I'd prefer .70
[10:38] {Threei}  1:1
[10:39] {ese} dive dive dive!!!!11
[10:39] {davd} something big happned
[10:39] {ese} hat the heck is goin on there
[10:39] {ese} WHO??????  opened there mouth
[10:39] {Threei}  (JP) Earthquake strikes northeastern Japan, tsunami alert issued - Japan press
[10:39] {Threei}  here
[10:39] {nemo} oy frickin vay
[10:40] {ese} double that for me
[10:40] {rambler} vxx splodes.....
[10:41] {davd} i see nothing on cnn
[10:41] {Threei}  1:2
[10:41] {Threei}  oe 3
[10:41] {ese} 7.4 magnitude quake
[10:41] {nemo} oh jeez
[10:42] {ese} man they haven't even gotten over the first one
[10:42] {Threei}  I think this planet is anxious to shake us off
[10:42] {davd} tsunami alert japan
[10:42] {Threei}  and hey, who could blame it
[10:43] {ese} yup
[10:43] {Threei}  everyone's closed RIMM?
[10:44] {jfjf64} die rimmmmmmmmm
[10:44] {jfjf64} not me
[10:44] {nemo} iwm at yesterday's lows spy bounced of of S2 and multi time frame pivot support
[10:44] {Threei}  careful jf... bounce will be vicious when comes
[10:44] {jfjf64} hv 500 shares left
[10:45] {nemo} .69-.70 key for spy
[10:46] {nemo} spy may be dbing
[10:46] {jfjf64} out
[10:46] {jfjf64} 3i out of jf s   dog  house
[10:46] {rambler} way to hang in there jf....
[10:47] {jfjf64} ty
[10:47] {jfjf64} was hard
[10:47] {jfjf64} lol
[10:47] {Threei}  welcome, and next time, please leave some bacon in tyhat dog house, will ya
[10:47] {ese} lstr L sm .85
[10:47] {jfjf64} 100 %
[10:48] {Threei}  see the bounce, jf?
[10:48] {Threei}  told yas, vicious
[10:48] {jfjf64} yes
[10:49] {Threei}  watch RIMM for long entry on double bottom if pulls back to about .10
[10:50] {nemo} Fukushima expecting tsnunami 6 minutes
[10:50] {Threei}  projected t be about 1 meter high
[10:50] {nemo} yep
[10:51] {ese} is that good or bad?
[10:51] {nemo} bad but better than it could be
[10:52] {RonS} depends if you are taller than that
[10:52] {nemo} Hobbits are screwed
[10:52] {RonS} :)
[10:53] {RonS} bright side is their is a boom in radioactive surfing
[10:53] {nemo} nightsurfing
[10:54] {RonS} gives new meaning to the phrase "in the pipe"
[10:54] {davd} rons not planning to audition for duck
[10:56] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .35 break
[10:56] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[10:57] {Threei}  target is 1:2 with partials, and then reversal
[10:58] {jfjf64} like plan   skipper
[10:59] {Threei}  let's trail stop to above .40
[10:59] {Threei}  very unclear here with this tsunami expectation
[11:00] {Threei}  want to stay on a safe side
[11:01] {Threei}  if no damage is reported and no tsunami threat, market can explode
[11:03] {jfjf64} nem
[11:04] {jfjf64} 58.00
[11:04] {jfjf64} breakdn
[11:04] {nemo} helluva stop
[11:04] {Threei}  watching SLW for long entry on pullback
[11:04] {Threei}  dsirable under .60
[11:04] {Threei}  desirably
[11:06] {Threei}  out RIMM
[11:13] {Threei}  market lost drive, no push either way
[11:14] {rambler} MIPS breaking out .....
[11:23] {gregns} RIMM breakdown of .25 ?
[11:24] {Threei}  nah... volume all but dried up on this pullback
[11:24] {gregns} ty
[11:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .80 break
[11:24] {Threei}  stop under .70
[11:26] {nemo} CREE
[11:27] {Threei}  looks breaky to me
[11:28] {Threei}  but my brain obviously is still on vacation
[11:28] {nemo} yeah, except pivot is .94 and it's sitting at vwap in  a flat market
[11:28] {Threei}  no go X
[11:32] {patience} in Fortuna Silver ( ... not sure if it is a scalp or longer...profitable though
[11:34] {RonS} hearing M halt
[11:34] {Threei}  yes
[11:34] {Threei}  circuit breaker
[11:35] {Threei}  don't see any big moves on it thopugh
[11:36] {RonS} looks like fat finger
[11:38] {nemo} another nuclear plant had power cut
[11:39] {RonS} in Japan?
[11:39] {nemo} yep
[11:44] {Threei}  market feels like waiting for the next headline rather than trading on its own
[11:47] {Threei}  gosh... just notice AONE daily
[11:47] {Threei}  what a sad story
[11:48] {davd} gold lod re gld
[11:48] {Threei}  SLW too
[11:54] {Threei}  commentsd from Fed
[11:54] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lacker: FOMC rates hikes are certainly possible before end of 2011, given inflation and economic outlook; does not see the ECB hike as "showing the way" for the Fed
[11:54] {Threei}  - Believes the Fed should sell off all of its MBS holdings, does not believe the Fed should hold anything except USTs.
[11:54] {Threei}  - Inflation risks have significantly increased over the last six months.
[11:59] {rambler} bot DGW L 4.00   stop 3.90
[12:06] {Threei}  (US) Democrat aide reiterates claims the two sides are nearing a deal, numbers are essentially agreed upon yet ideological issues remain - financial press
[12:06] {Threei} Short Setup: BBBY  .90 break half lot
[12:07] {Threei}  if stays under 55.05
[12:08] {Threei}  target is about .60
[12:08] {Threei}  bizarre line:
[12:08] {Threei}  Southwest Airlines Inc Planes that earlier showed signs of cracking should be patched and back into service by this coming weekend - financial press
[12:09] {Threei}  remind me to fly Northwest
[12:09] {Threei}  BBBY invalidated
[12:15] {rambler} stooped on DGW
[12:16] {rambler} stopped
[12:16] {nemo} spy may pause around .20, no further bad news, gets back to at least .38 today
[12:17] {rambler} SCON pops on vol and flagging.....
[12:18] {Threei}  BBBY is back on radar as short, just want a bounce to 55
[12:20] {nemo} bastid
[12:22] {Threei}  grrr
[12:27] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Both sides are coming very close to a deal on spending cuts, although women's health and environmental issues are still holding up the process
[12:27] {Threei}  - Claims that the Republicans have made the decision to shut down Govt
[12:27] {Threei}  - Follow up: President Obama pledges to veto any further stop-gap funding bills.
[12:28] {Threei}  sounds to me like both sides just jokeying for position, trying to make the other side at fault for the shutdown
[12:28] {nemo} 57 area HOT might be short
[12:32] {ese} .
[12:36] {nemo} dumb me, did I say spy .38, should have said .60
[12:41] {nemo} wow may have new highs on the indexes
[12:48] {Threei}  BBBY got away
[12:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break
[12:51] {Threei}  stop under .40
[12:51] {Threei}  target .90
[13:03] {nemo} who pulled the plug
[13:03] {Threei}  no news
[13:03] {Threei}  sigh
[13:03] {Threei}  some days are just not meant to be
[13:03] {nemo} support at .36
[13:05] {nemo} 109.90 oil
[13:08] {nemo} 110
[13:09] {ese} ya this would be one of them days
[13:09] {nemo} yep  them thar days
[13:10] {nemo} 110.23
[13:11] {nemo} big volume coming into oil over 110
[13:12] {nemo} mmhhhh, bbby
[13:19] {ese} L AVL .40
[13:25] {rambler} ese. if AVL gets thru 9.50 could run...
[13:28] {Threei}  (US) Congressional Budget Office: Budget deficit estimated at $830B v -$717B yy
[13:28] {Threei}  - outlays +11% y/y, revenues +7% y/y
[13:29] {Threei}  incurable, eh?
[13:31] {ese} thats the key rambler......decent setup but nothin happening
[13:39] {ese} I I I I.............I don't believe it...........I'm making some money.....25 bucks but hey!
[13:45] {rambler} this is where I bought AVL last go around....
[13:47] {nemo} crash coming
[13:49] {ese} out AVL .53 +.13
[13:50] {rambler} gj ese...
[13:52] {rambler} looks like REE lifting again...
[13:52] {ese} ya
[14:01] {Threei}  MCP...
[14:01] {Threei}  68 break is tempting short
[14:03] {nemo} I had been thinking the same thing, just such a strong stock
[14:03] {Threei}  caught .95
[14:04] {nemo} don't overstay your welcom
[14:04] {Threei}  covered half .77
[14:04] {nemo} don't know why have support line drawn in bottom of that doji
[14:04] {nemo} oh, high yesterday
[14:06] {nemo} cat sjprt be;pw /40?
[14:06] {jfjf64} i miss anything
[14:06] {nemo} or too much support
[14:07] {Threei}  not really jf
[14:07] {nemo} cat short below .40?
[14:07] {Threei}  looks right
[14:08] {nemo} aggressive would be if it can't get by that volume bar at .50
[14:09] {jfjf64} ?   lookin  to break .50  then short  ?
[14:10] {nemo} oh oh
[14:13] {Threei}  AIG
[14:13] {Threei}  American International Group, Inc Confirms that AIG participated in Maiden Lane aution yesterday, had several winning bids for MBS assets - CNBC
[14:14] {nemo} got wicked out of cat short
[14:15] {nemo} rinse cat
[14:17] {jfjf64} ?   lookin  to break .50  then short  ?
[14:17] {nemo} ?
[14:17] {jfjf64} guess not
[14:17] {nemo} tried .40 break, got wicked out above .50
[14:18] {Threei}  AIG looks serious
[14:18] {nemo} volume dried up
[14:19] {jfjf64} i follow nemo   just didnt understand  ya post at 14:07
[14:21] {nemo} yeah, if it approached and a lot of volume came in under the big offers at .50, woulda' likely meant a drop
[14:22] {nemo} 50 important for POT
[14:23] {nemo} 59.00 sorry
[14:23] {nemo} inflection point
[14:27] {nemo} should go to .50 if works
[14:28] {nemo} maybe even .30
[14:29] {RonS} oil futes at 110.33
[14:32] {jfjf64} cost    .30 break    i/cup
[14:32] {nemo} was just looking at that
[14:33] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps begins vote on one week stopgap measures; has now passed and will move to Senate
[14:33] {Threei}  - Would fund Pentagon through Sept 30, and Govt through April 15
[14:33] {Threei}  - Reminder: The President has threatened to veto the stopgap measure assuming the Senate passes it
[14:33] {nemo} republicans got the democrats right where the democrats want them
[14:34] {jfjf64} 2  i/cups
[14:34] {jfjf64} daily chart
[14:34] {jfjf64} today
[14:35] {jfjf64} scratch that
[14:39] {nemo} mmmhhhh play short at resistance on POT?
[14:39] {Threei}  not here, imo
[14:39] {Threei}  10-15 cents higher, probably
[14:43] {nemo} got some nice pennants forming on spy and iwm
[14:47] {rambler} bot SCON 3.40  stop 3.30
[14:55] {RonS} headline of the day:  Crack spread gets hammered
[14:56] {nemo} drinking problem and crack?
[14:59] {rambler} out SCON  +.25
[15:03] {RonS} gj
[15:04] {rambler} thks, put me at b/e for the day...
[15:05] {Threei}  outdid me then
[15:05] {rambler} one of those days...
[15:13] {ese} enough......enough already.......c you al tomorrow
[15:13] {nemo} insha Alah
[15:14] {ese} ahhhhh yaaaaa eggzactilly
[15:14] {Threei}  take care ese
[15:14] {nemo} you speak Arabic?
[15:15] {rambler} cya ese
[15:26] {nemo} gotta' go c u 2morow
[15:27] {Threei}  take care nemo
[15:27] {RonS} cya nemo
[15:27] {Threei}  GLD...
[15:27] {Threei}  .40 break looks nice, but I doubt it has much room
[15:28] {Threei}  maybe a scalp
[15:28] {nemo} too much support at .30
[15:32] {larisa} RIMM day low
[15:33] {Threei}  thinking break?
[15:33] {larisa} 1.5 $ downtrend already
[15:33] {larisa} 0.5
[15:34] {rambler} SCON trying here.....
[15:37] {Threei}  Acer Inc Anticipating component shortages for its tablet and smartphone devices - DigiTimes- Citing comments from Taiwan unit president Scott Lin.
[15:37] {Threei}  - Long-term, Lin says war of tablets just started; Android-devices to surpass Apple.
[15:46] {davd} .
[15:46] {davd} can it go green?
[15:46] {Threei}  well
[15:46] {Threei}  anything can happen
[15:46] {Threei}  but I doubt it
[15:46] {Threei}  matket is like jellyfish
[15:46] {Threei}  no energy
[15:47] {davd} i think will go green because just past 1333
[15:49] {Threei}  NDX is green actually
[15:49] {Threei}  flashed for a second at least
[15:49] {davd} see i was right
[15:50] {Threei}  hey, being right today is very easy
[15:50] {Threei}  just object whatever I say
[15:50] {Threei}  can't miss
[15:56] {Threei}  OK, to emphasize just how pathetic today is, taking 4 cents scalp GLD
[15:56] {Threei}  lol
[15:56] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all for your patience, have a good evening
[15:56] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {larisa} bye :)
[15:58] {davd} i liked the slw short!
[15:58] {davd} you have a happy customer at least.  almost as good as making money
[15:58] {Threei}  lol
[15:58] {rambler} bot SHZ  5.36 for ON hold
[15:59] {rambler} thanks 3i, cya all tomorrow...