Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Apr 20 2011

3 wins out of 6 trades but the size of wins greatly exceeded that of stops, so the day turned out profitable. Hate those big gap up days... but one of trades gave us Catch of the Day.

Today's trade is a very clean illustration of the known principle: Former support becomes new resistance. We will discuss in details why it happens in our upcoming workshop in Whistler Oct 1-3. Here is the development of the trade:
1. $108.20 is clear support for CAT, formed by a few tests earlier and broken at 10:36 EST.
2. After sharp dropover the next 2 minutes, bounce took CAT back into 108.20, which now is resistance level. It didn't hurt that volume decreased on that bounce.
3. As CAT danced for a min near 108.20 not being able to break it, we determined the structure for our play: 108.15 break as a short trigger with stop at 108.25
4. 1:5 risk/reward was reached at 107.65 (we have covered at 1:4).

[08:20] {nemo} call me crazy, but I'm very tempted to buy tza here                                          
[08:42] {Threei}  OK... you are crazy
[08:54] {nemo} ty
[08:57] {Threei}  always
[08:58] {dino} gm all
[08:58] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:02] {RonS} gm all...bears must be bumming...
[09:02] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:02] {nemo} bears got BOHICA'd
[09:02] {Threei}  that is normal state for them over last cpuple years
[09:02] {Threei}  I'd think they feel quite uncomfortable on any day when they don't get burned
[09:04] {RonS} FCX...big gap up
[09:05] {nemo} Ron all you have to do is {type ticker here} big gap up
[09:05] {Threei}  hehe, just thought of remark "what isn't"
[09:06] {nemo} well, probably the $
[09:09] {RonS} CREE is the red-headed Indian...
[09:10] {Threei}  wow Ron
[09:10] {Threei}  you found one stock in red!
[09:10] {Threei}  fantastic detective work
[09:11] {rambler} morning.....
[09:11] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:11] {Threei}  tom! welcome back
[09:12] {tomg} thanks Vad, Good morning everybody :)
[09:12] {RonS} ...suffering the horror of I know how charle sheen feels
[09:12] {Threei}  lol
[09:12] {RonS} and similar to him, just don't care
[09:12] {Threei}  but the question remains... are you WINNING??
[09:12] {RonS} lol
[09:14] {nemo} tza working
[09:17] {larisa} gm :)
[09:18] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:18] {larisa} vad :)
[09:18] {larisa} wow market
[09:18] {Threei}  yeah
[09:19] {nemo} see what the eagles are up to
[09:22] {dino} should i go back to bed?
[09:22] {Threei}  quite possible, lol
[09:23] {Threei}  I will skip first few minutes... gotta see what shapes up
[09:23] {Threei}  I have strong suspicion this gap is going to be smacked hard at some point
[09:23] {Threei}  but timing will be a bitch
[09:24] {Threei}  so, want to be on a lookout for the signs, but not in a rush to jump in
[09:27] {Threei}  SLW gao looks less impressive than most
[09:29] {ese} gm
[09:29] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:29] {jfjf64} mornin all
[09:29] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:30] {Threei}  also RIMM
[09:30] {nemo} tza hit 1:1
[09:31] {dino} 12341, 2307, 1319 gaps
[09:31] {dino} 1324 too
[09:33] {Threei}  EUR/USD (GR) Vague chatter circulating that Greek debt could be restructured as soon as this weekend
[09:33] {gen} gm all
[09:34] {Threei}  gen :)
[09:34] {gen} :)
[09:34] {dino} out jdsu .40, +.30 yesterdays holdover
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .70 break
[09:34] {Threei}  stop is too obvious to mention
[09:35] {Threei}  and hit
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW
[09:37] {Threei}  watching for short into bounce
[09:37] {dino} cree sm s .05
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:40] {dino} cov cree .65, +.40
[09:41] {Threei}  wtg
[09:41] {dino} ty
[09:42] {dino} 07 all red
[09:43] {Threei}  (HU) Hungary Econ Min Matolcsy: To phase out all personal income tax rebates by 2013
[09:43] {Threei}  Obama: hey! no stealing ideas!
[09:43] {nemo} wow
[09:43] {nemo} look tza
[09:44] {nemo} call me crazy
[09:44] {Threei}  Molycorp Inc Ticks higher on circulation of interview with CEO by an industry blog yesterday- MCP CEO makes bullish comments about the long term outlook for rare earth industry.
[09:45] {nemo} there's another "duh"
[09:46] {Threei}  SLW stop to .56
[09:46] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
[09:46] {Threei}  didn't cover but limiting risk
[09:47] {Threei}  wow RIMM
[09:48] {Threei}  (GR) ECB's Orphanides: Greece debt restructuring would be harmful and unwise, speculation about Greek debt restructuring is damaging the eurozone
[09:48] {nemo} rising naz tide
[09:48] {Threei}  " harmful and unwise"... try inevitable?
[09:49] {dino} mos neg.
[09:49] {Threei}  SLW, if decides to work, not a scalp anymore
[09:50] {dino} the way i see greek and irish debt, restructure now or default and restucture.
[09:50] {Threei}  - There is absolutely no reason for concern about the sustainability of Greece's debt, notes that "all of Europe" is backing up Greece.
[09:50] {Threei}  - Confident that Greece will be able to get its fiscal house in order.
[09:50] {Threei}  - The trouble with the euro concerns poor government discipline, the currency itself has done what it was supposed to do.
[09:51] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:52] {Threei}  stop is still .56 but will trail to .51 when .40'slost
[09:52] {Threei}  which is now
[09:52] {dino} gj
[09:52] {Threei}  1:2
[09:52] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:52] {dino} all red
[09:53] {Threei}  1"3
[09:53] {dino} fast sm s .01
[09:53] {Threei}  done
[09:53] {Threei}  SLW, Old Faithful
[09:53] {Threei}  good thing I requalified it to "not a scalp"
[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .95
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[09:58] {jfjf64} little battle
[09:58] {Threei}  not a scalp to me
[09:59] {dino} mos -1
[10:01] {Threei}  (US) MAR EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.1M V 5.00ME
[10:02] {Threei}  no go
[10:04] {nemo} X might be a short again around .25 vwap and resistance
[10:04] {dino} hod
[10:05] {nemo} alright .20 then
[10:05] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[10:06] {Threei}  again... not a scalp
[10:06] {Threei}  .50 break is actual target, it's an aggressive entry
[10:06] {Threei}  grrr
[10:08] {nemo} FCX earnings today?
[10:08] {dino} y
[10:08] {RonS} yep and special divvy
[10:09] {nemo} how big the divy
[10:09] {Threei}  Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc Reports Q1 $1.57 v $1.26e, R$5.71B v $5.3Be; Declares $0.50/share supplemental dividend- Guides FY11 production 3.9B lbs of copper, 1.6M ounces of gold, 73M lbs of molybdenum (prior 3.85B lbs of copper, 1.4M ounces of gold, 70M lbs of molybdenum on 20th Jan) - Guides FY11 CAPEX at $2.5B ($2.5B prior) - Guides FY11 Cash Flow $8.3B
[10:09] {RonS} think .50
[10:09] {dino} fast stopped -.28
[10:14] {Threei}  can't pinpoint confident play so far
[10:14] {Threei}  typical "big gap up" day
[10:15] {dino} yeah
[10:17] {nemo} spy premarket highs
[10:19] {nemo} IWM premarket high
[10:20] {nemo} DANG
[10:24] {dino} fast, last try sm s .27
[10:25] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[10:25] {Threei}  stop above .20, target 53.80
[10:26] {ese} Lvmw .03
[10:26] {Threei}  no such luck
[10:27] {nemo} look at the $
[10:27] {ese} out 1/2 .24 +.21
[10:27] {RonS} gj
[10:28] {Threei}  disgusting display, really
[10:28] {ese} tks
[10:28] {Threei}  I no longer think Ben and Co should be fired
[10:28] {Threei}  I think they should be jailed
[10:28] {nemo} drawn and quartered
[10:28] {nemo} draught horses
[10:28] {nemo} make a wish
[10:29] {ese} out full.42 +.41
[10:29] {nemo} actually impaling would be nice
[10:29] {Threei}  this is no longer incompetence stuff, this is treason stuff
[10:29] {jfjf64} gj   ese
[10:29] {nemo} all to keep the banks and those interest rate swaps alive
[10:29] {ese} 1k/1k....
[10:29] {nemo} MHS short here?
[10:30] {Threei}  yes
[10:30] {Threei}  but you see how my shorts work today
[10:30] {Threei}  one out of four
[10:30] {nemo} I'll fade it then
[10:31] {nemo} both spy and IWM bumped up above premarket ranges and stopped Qs and DIA exceeded pre market ranges
[10:31] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -2.3M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -1.69M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -2.5M V +500KE; UTILIZATION: 82.5% V 82.3%E
[10:31] {nemo} oil over 1110
[10:32] {nemo} 110
[10:32] {nemo} and the Saudi's cut shipments by 800k a day last week
[10:32] {nemo} go figure
[10:35] {dino} w/friends like them...
[10:36] {RonS} AGU swinging around today dino
[10:36] {ese} so far they've avoided the riots that have plagued other muslim country's though
[10:36] {dino} thx ron
[10:37] {Threei}  by starting shooting at first signs of riots
[10:37] {RonS} kinda looks like mos chart
[10:37] {ese} i missed that did they do that
[10:37] {Threei}  yes
[10:37] {RonS} check that...they are moving together
[10:37] {Threei}  riots were planned on Fri, "day of rage"
[10:38] {nemo} crus
[10:38] {Threei}  first gathering started on Thu, and were immediately dispersed with a few killed
[10:38] {Threei}  riots fizzled out before began
[10:39] {nemo} kinda' thinking play crus 16 break w stop under .95
[10:40] {Threei}  CAT
[10:40] {Threei}  watch for short if bounces into .20
[10:40] {nemo} eating offers
[10:41] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .15 break
[10:42] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[10:43] {Threei}  1:1
[10:43] {Threei}  half out
[10:43] {Threei}  stop to .21
[10:45] {Threei}  1:2
[10:45] {Threei}  1/4 out
[10:45] {Threei}  stop to b/e
[10:45] {Threei}  last target is 1:4
[10:46] {Threei}  looking at 1 min CAT, first play today that I really like, very clean setup
[10:50] {Threei}  you all are asleep?
[10:51] {nemo} no...
[10:51] {nemo} just not seeing anything in particular
[10:51] {nemo} missed crus 1:1
[10:52] {jfjf64} me either
[10:53] {nemo} oil just keeps going, this has to slow things down soon
[10:55] {nemo} slw probably go nuts over 44
[11:01] {nemo} jeez, crude
[11:02] {nemo} slw forming nice resistance/support range
[11:06] {Threei}  TIVO
[11:06] {Threei}  TiVo Inc Receives mixed ruling in US appeals court case against Echostar- Tivo awarded affirmation of contempt on disablement provision, Echostart receives a new hearing on contempt in hearing provisions
[11:11] {dino} tdsc drop
[11:13] {Threei}  1:3, stop to .05
[11:19] {nemo} LVS long here VAD?
[11:19] {Threei}  not yet
[11:20] {Threei}  let it pull back once again,
[11:20] {Threei}  hold .80,
[11:20] {Threei}  then break resistance
[11:20] {Threei}  like now
[11:20] {Threei}  CAT baby
[11:20] {Threei}  1:4
[11:20] {Threei}  out
[11:20] {Threei}  whew
[11:21] {rambler} way to hang in there Vad....
[11:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .90 break if holding .80
[11:21] {Threei}  that was the plan all along
[11:21] {nemo} nope
[11:21] {Threei}  10:45] {Threei} last target is 1:4
[11:22] {nemo} spy at vwap
[11:22] {RonS} meli red
[11:24] {nemo} dad back in the nest
[11:25] {nemo} both doing the feeding, only two chicks I think
[11:25] {dino} fast bstop to .01
[11:26] {RonS} missed my entry on tdsc by .01 now +.66
[11:27] {nemo} deer is back with goose
[11:27] {RonS} panl sm s .45
[11:29] {rambler} HSY drop
[11:29] {dino} stop? .71?
[11:30] {nemo} like LVS long here?
[11:30] {RonS} dino, yes
[11:30] {nemo} too late
[11:31] {dino} fast cov .01, +.26
[11:31] {RonS} panl stopped -.26
[11:32] {dino} pulp type
[11:35] {RonS} oil futes 111+
[11:35] {ese} L sm abv .03
[11:40] {nemo} tivo running
[11:44] {rambler} whats your read on HSY Vad....?
[11:44] {RonS} sweet?
[11:44] {Threei}  none really
[11:49] {RonS} sniped .20 outta tivo thanks nemo
[11:50] {dino} ocz drop
[11:51] {RonS} tivo went back in and got another .31
[11:51] {Threei}  nice scalping footwork
[11:52] {RonS} never done this in my life...
[11:52] {Threei}  learning process progresses successfully then
[11:52] {Threei}  momo play
[11:52] {RonS} w/ tivo takout...nothing less than $20/sh imo
[11:52] {Threei}  something very very different
[11:52] {RonS} takeout
[11:53] {Threei}  one doesn't play momo successfully without solid groundwork laid out by learning to trade "normal" markets
[11:53] {Threei}  whatever normal is
[11:54] {RonS} sounds like that's what Buddha said...:)
[12:05] {RonS} ha!...just read Tivo's statement of rulling:  succinctly...we got Dish by the goands and we're gonna squeeze 'em
[12:05] {RonS} gonads
[12:05] {nemo} 3i jr.
[12:06] {Threei}  hey, learning process is multisided
[12:10] {RonS} oil futes now 111.50
[12:12] {nemo} fcx heading towards db
[12:18] {dino} uri sm l .75
[12:18] {nemo} stop?
[12:19] {dino} lod
[12:25] {dino} to b/e
[12:26] {RonS} he should know...:  Putin Calls US Monetary Policy "Hooliganism"
[12:27] {Threei}  well... I must say, I can't really disagree with him there :)
[12:27] {Threei}  another matyter is, if US goverment is a hooligan, then Russian one is pure bandit
[12:28] {rambler} POT s .66
[12:28] {dino} avav sm l .55
[12:29] {nemo} Capitalism is where man exploits man, Communism is just the opposite
[12:29] {Threei}  yup :)
[12:29] {rambler} out POT +.15
[12:30] {Threei}  beauty
[12:30] {Threei}  clean setup
[12:30] {Threei}  easy money
[12:30] {Threei}  wtg
[12:30] {Threei}  what a difference couple months make eh?
[12:30] {rambler} tanks...
[12:30] {Threei}  where?
[12:30] {rambler} it's coming...
06[12:30] * Threei arms himself with anti-tank riffle
[12:31] {RonS}
[12:32] {dino} meli sm s .00 break
[12:32] {rambler} switching over to long woulda been a good idea....
[12:34] {nemo} dad's back
[12:35] {ese} abv stopped.81.......grrrrrrr good thing it was small shs
[12:36] {RonS} meli target dino?
[12:36] {dino} .60s
[12:36] {RonS} thinkin .68
[12:37] {dino} out uri flat
[12:37] {Threei}  TIVO
[12:38] {rambler} wow....
[12:38] {Threei}  and I weas mulling .60 break short, lol
[12:39] {dino} meli to .05
[12:39] {rambler} no more mulling.....
[12:48] {nemo} 133 seems important for spy
[12:50] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Juncker: Reiterates that Ireland, Greece and Portugal face very different problems- Monetary policy is best discussed in secret
[12:50] {Threei}  yes... why would anyone want to discuss openly something that concerns just about everyone
[13:11] {nemo} SLW
[13:14] {RonS} tivo 42 mil
[13:15] {dino}  panl sm s .50
[13:17] {davd} gold red re gld
[13:17] {dino} avav to .59
[13:18] {Threei}  MON
[13:18] {Threei}  watching for bounce
[13:21] {dino} avav out
[13:24] {nemo} pot volume activity at 50 ma on 5 min
[13:26] {Threei}  DISH Network Corp Comments on recent Appeals court ruling; is disappointed on the affirmation of contempt and will seek a Supreme court review- Also looking to request an injunction during review
[13:27] {dino} cov meli .69, +.31
[13:28] {rambler} nice one dino...
[13:30] {dino} ty
[13:30] {dino} avav l .54
[13:31] {nemo} God bless ya'
[13:43] {nemo} MCP might be crawling out of the grass to break above .30
[13:49] {nemo} TIVO
[13:49] {RonS} up or down?
[13:49] {nemo} up
[13:50] {nemo} if you think they'll squeeze gonads, and look at MCP
[13:51] {nemo} see if it holds.30
[13:51] {nemo} actually .27-.28 looking at candles
[13:55] {nemo} ehhh, tivo looks short now
[13:57] {nemo} SIFY bid
[14:01] {ese} gotta go  cya ya tomorrow.......not participating much these days but am enjoying readin ya'll
[14:02] {RonS} cya ese
[14:02] {rambler} cya ese...
[14:03] {RonS} sify l .47 target .58
[14:03] {dino} cya es
[14:08] {RonS} out sify flat...don't like the price action
[14:11] {dino} uri sm l .26
[14:18] {RonS} took uri .33 to .48 thanks dino
[14:19] {RonS} ese size
[14:19] {dino} gj
[14:24] {nemo} tck break of .10?
[14:24] {nemo} long
[14:24] {nemo} indexes weakening though
[14:25] {Threei}  well, if it holds here
[14:25] {Threei}  and breaks with index bounce, it's a play
[14:33] {nemo} oil going through the roof and chk coughin' up a furball
[14:35] {Threei}  CHK Hearing recent weakness attributed to circulation of article highlighting potential fluid spillage event in Pennsylvania
[14:37] {Threei}  (US) Treasury's Wolin: Reiterates the US will not default; Congress knows it needs to raise the debt limit - CNBC interview- No need to respond to speculation about default because it will not happen
[14:38] {dino} why even have debt limit when they raise it every year
[14:38] {nemo} thinkd dang above .60 see high volume candle coupla'  minutes ago
[14:41] {rambler} ACAD L 2.12     stop 2.00
[14:49] {RonS} dang good nemo took .61 to .75  thanks
[14:53] {nemo} cool
[14:53] {RonS} god dang
[14:53] {nemo} yeah
[14:53] {nemo} thought it would have more in it
[14:53] {nemo} .20-.50 most likely
[14:57] {nemo} hit .49
[14:58] {nemo} interesting, MHS at open area
[15:02] {RonS} banged uri again .06 to .18  thanks dino
[15:02] {Threei}  Rom must be stopped
[15:03] {Threei}  he leaves no money in the market for the rest of us
[15:03] {RonS} glad you aren't taliking about me...
[15:03] {RonS} talking
[15:04] {Threei}  oh come on... surely you know better than take letters I type on faith
[15:04] {RonS} unusually aggressive today...don't know why
[15:04] {nemo} wife shut you off?
[15:04] {Threei}  if I type J, you look left and right of it and know it can be H or K with equal odds
[15:05] {nemo} not married? oh....
[15:05] {nemo} the sheep then?
[15:05] {RonS} lol
[15:05] {Threei}  janitor frowns
[15:05] {RonS} Daisy...
[15:07] {nemo} Dang DANG!!!
[15:08] {nemo} MHS bounce by 58
[15:14] {dino} uri to .48, panl to .39
[15:14] {dino} out uri +.32 ave
[15:20] {nemo} if MHS drops 58, just under .90 is next support, but we got a hammer here on high volume
[15:22] {dino} panl to .21
[15:23] {nemo} mhs might play ball if the indexes cooperate
[15:24] {nemo} stop under the hammer
[15:25] {nemo} official 1:1
[15:25] {nemo} want first partial at .14
[15:26] {dino} out slip .22, +.28
[15:26] {dino} tyc app lod
[15:27] {nemo} 1/2 .14
[15:27] {nemo} LVS
[15:29] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .45 break
[15:30] {Threei}  stop above .55
[15:33] {Threei}  1:1
[15:33] {Threei}  half out
[15:33] {Threei}  stop to .51
[15:35] {nemo} 1/4 more .25 MHS
[15:36] {Threei}  SLW, my dear baby
[15:36] {Threei}  1/4 more out .21
[15:37] {Threei}  stop to .41
[15:38] {Threei}  funny: 3 for 6, but all wins are bigger than stops, so the day is positive
[15:38] {nemo} my stop MHS is .10
[15:39] {nemo} mmhhhh strong resistance .40
[15:40] {nemo} took rest .38  done for day
[15:40] {nemo} looks like indices want the highs for the day
[15:41] {rambler} out SLW Vad...ty
[15:41] {Threei}  nice finish to the day eh
[15:41] {rambler} you bet....
[15:41] {Threei}  will have a cool Catch of the Day for you yoo
[15:41] {Threei}  too
[15:42] {Threei}  stop to .35
[15:44] {Threei}  1:3
[15:44] {RonS} chk blood
[15:47] {Threei}  1:4
[15:48] {Threei}  out in full .99
[15:48] {Threei}  with this +.45 trade and with your kind permission, I will retreat to my castle till tomorrow
[15:48] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:48] {Threei}  see you in the morning
[15:48] {dino} gn vad
[15:49] {rambler} thanks Vad, cya all...