Monday, May 9, 2011

May 09 2011

Not very active day, ending slightly positive. Market hesitates before determining next step, so a lot of see-saw action.

Session Time: Mon May 09 00:00:00 2011
[08:44] {Threei}  08:15:00
[08:44] {Threei}  - Downgrade reflects sentiment on debt extension and also due to possible burden sharing with Euro zone official creditors
[08:44] {Threei}  - Greece missits its 2010 fiscal objectives and uncertain whether or not the country can achieve its 2011 objectives.
[08:44] {Threei}  - May possibly further cut rating by an addition one to two notches if fiscal position deteriorates.
[08:44] {Threei}  - Increased risk that Greece might restructurte its commercial debt; Principal reductions of 50% more likely needed -
[08:44] {Threei}  *** REMINDER: When S&P last cut Greece on March 29th, commented that it could cut sovereign ratings by an additional one or two notches if the country's fiscal position worsened
[08:44] {Threei}  08:38:06
[08:44] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Papandreou: Questions the credibility, timing of S&P downgrade, calls it unjustified
[08:51] {ese} morning...checking in to se hoaw your doin
[08:51] {ese} how
[08:51] {Threei}  ese :)
[08:51] {Threei}  we are good... better than Greece
[08:51] {ese} not surprising
[08:51] {Threei}  (EU) German govt advisor: Changing approach for the Euro zone periphery countries
[08:52] {ese} have a 9:00am call for a show at the Empress convention center for this company
[08:52] {ese} this morning
[08:53] {Threei}  - Must consider stimulus measures for Greece in addition to austerity
[08:53] {Threei}  Have Market Intel? Tip Line -} Click Here
[08:53] {Threei}  nice
[08:57] {Threei}  (EU) German Govt Advisor Bofinger (Wisemen): Euro zone requires a comprehensive solution at this time or might not remain intact in a year's time
[08:57] {Threei}  a year may be too optimistic
[08:58] {Threei}  ese, they need to consider my photobook as a coprorate gift
[08:58] {Threei}  it's available in Empress tea gift store :)
[09:00] {ese} I'll tell them that.........i'l bet they buy some
[09:01] {Threei}  :)
[09:02] {Threei}  oh, and if store runs out, call me for a hint where to get more
[09:02] {ese} bet
[09:17] {dino} gm all
[09:18] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {Threei}  interesting dichotomy this morning
[09:18] {Threei}  USD is up,
[09:19] {Threei}  and so are SLW, GLD, USO
[09:19] {RonS} gm to you all
[09:19] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:20] {Threei}  they have two comtradictory roles: hedge against Euro demise, and assets valued in USD
[09:20] {Threei}  makes things muddy
[09:20] {Threei}  my personal feel is, latter will prevail
[09:20] {davd} slw had good earnings
[09:21] {Threei}  (US) Treasury's Geithner: Reiterates calls for China's growth model to be more focused on domestic demand and market based - US- China econ talks
[09:21] {Threei}  **Reminder: Back on April 8th the US Treasury again delayed its semi-annual currency report due Apr 15th ahead of high-level G20 meetings and China economic dialogue.
[09:21] {Threei}  - NOTE: Treasury had previously delayed its last semiannual report expected for Oct 2010 with a release in Feb 2011.
[09:25] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:26] {larisa} vad :)
[09:27] {Threei}  I don't have clear play for the opening so far
[09:28] {Threei}  let's let them sort out their differences for a few min
[09:28] {Threei}  then find the no-cracked forhead and crack it
[09:29] {nemo} short slw
[09:30] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:31] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:30] {davd} usd crosses above 50d mvng avg
[09:32] {_samire} password is working
[09:32] {davd} x strong barrons bounce
[09:32] {_samire} thanks
[09:32] {nemo} lucky us
[09:32] {Threei}  hi samire
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if holding .70
[09:34] {nemo} right
[09:34] {jfjf64} lol
[09:34] {Threei}  umm
[09:34] {Threei}  say what?
[09:34] {Threei}  lol
[09:34] {jfjf64} what da  f
[09:34] {gregns} omg
[09:34] {Threei}  but hey, that was a good call, wasn't it {GGG}
[09:34] {gregns} yup
[09:35] {Threei}  this is perfect illustration of danger of market orders for those who use it
[09:35] {davd} wo - good call - anyone get it?
06[09:35] * nemo shoots davd
[09:35] {Threei}  fill would have been what, 50 cents above the trigger?
[09:35] {davd} ill take that as a no
[09:36] {Threei}  so kids, never ever go alone to the dark forest and never use market orders
[09:36] {jfjf64} pull bk
[09:36] {nemo} yeah, that would have been a serious BOHICA moment
[09:37] {Threei}  (IR) Ireland PM: A rate cut for Irish bailout may be delivered at next EU finance ministers' meeting - financial press
[09:38] {RonS} C catching some volatility w/ its reverse split
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: NUAN  .60 break half lot
[09:39] {Threei}  if stays under .75
[09:40] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:40] {RonS} dang ,rimm doing what it should have Fri afternoon
[09:40] {Threei}  SLW,
[09:41] {Threei}  watch for sharp drop under .90,
[09:41] {Threei}  long entry
[09:41] {Threei}  .90 cross back if holding .80
[09:41] {Threei}  here we go
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .90 break if holding .80
[09:42] {Threei}  invalidated but on radar
[09:42] {Threei}  for better entry
[09:42] {jfjf64} always
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break if holding .70
[09:42] {Threei}  in
[09:43] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:43] {jfjf64} ty
[09:44] {Threei}  1:2, 1/4 out
[09:44] {RonS} .83 to .98  thanks 3i
[09:44] {Threei}  stop to .79
[09:44] {Threei}  welcome guys
[09:44] {Threei}  little patience, and hooked a good one
[09:44] {jfjf64} eye nuan
[09:45] {jfjf64} 22.00 roll over
[09:45] {Threei}  (CH) China Vice Premier Wang: There are some differences between US and China on economic poliices
[09:45] {jfjf64} lol
[09:45] {Threei}  some?
[09:45] {Threei}  lol
[09:46] {RonS} they want to win and we want to suck along...?
[09:46] {Threei}  lol
[09:46] {jfjf64} nuan
[09:46] {jfjf64} grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[09:46] {gregns} tks for the heads up jf, i got a little
[09:47] {Threei}  too thin for reliable executions jf
[09:47] {jfjf64} yes
[09:47] {jfjf64} blow off top
[09:47] {jfjf64} when got pass 22.00
[09:47] {Threei}  something individual player can trade if has a good read, but almost impossible to call for the room
[09:48] {dino} hrs sm l .71
[09:48] {Threei}  who pulled plug on SLW?
[09:50] {Threei}  RIMM
[09:50] {Threei}  pullback, looking for long
[09:51] {Threei}  had .10 in mind, happened too fast
[09:51] {Threei}  maybe second chance
[09:51] {Threei}  if dives under .10 and stays above 45
[09:52] {Threei}  here it is
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .10 break
[09:52] {Threei}  if holding 45
[09:52] {Threei}  target is about .45
[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break if holding .50
[09:53] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:54] {jfjf64} goto  work   rimm
[09:55] {Threei}  holding well so far, needs little market help
[09:55] {Threei}  stopped
[09:55] {jfjf64} smell rince
[09:55] {Threei}  (GE) German Econ Min: seeing signs that Germany is headed toward a labor shortage
[09:56] {RonS} what? no more turks?
[09:57] {nemo} Ich kann deutsche sprechen, und das Bier ist besser als im den Vereinigten Staaten
[09:57] {jfjf64} yes nemo
[09:57] {RonS} that's what she said...
[09:57] {Threei}  indeed
[09:58] {nemo} ganz toll
[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: USO  .40 break
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:02] {Threei}  USD new high
[10:03] {Threei}  USO obeys
[10:03] {Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {Threei}  money made on oil drop has double satisfaction
[10:05] {tomg} won't let me short USO
[10:05] {tomg} which route vad?
[10:05] {nemo} buy sco
[10:05] {Threei}  ARCA
[10:05] {tomg} that's what I used
[10:05] {tomg} strange
[10:06] {Threei}  just limited amount of shares for short then
[10:06] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:06] {tomg} ah,ok
[10:07] {gregns} SLW break of .60 ?
[10:07] {Threei}  not sure
[10:07] {gregns} me either
[10:10] {Threei}  RIMM
[10:10] {Threei}  should be second attempt here somewhere
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  45 break
[10:11] {dino} irf sm l .72 stop .48
[10:11] {Threei}  (PO) S&P: Portugal and Greece remain fiscally challenged, recovery in the EMU is strong, in exports in particular
[10:12] {Threei}  needless to say, RIMM invalid
[10:21] {Threei}  YOKU Strength attributed to circulation of rumor of potential partnership with Apple, discussed on blog late last week- TechNode reports a rumor that Apple might consider using Yoku as its default video app on iPhones and iPads in China, since YouTube remains blocked in that country.
[10:31] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .80 break
[10:31] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[10:31] {Threei}  changing my view on it
[10:33] {nemo} she's ripped me up trying to shortr the break
[10:33] {jfjf64} little battle
[10:37] {Threei}  that SLW break workd after all
[10:38] {gregns} yup
[10:44] {_samire} my first day here...but ugly market
[10:45] {Threei}  so, it's your fault :)
[10:45] {Threei}  NUAN tightened, much easier to execute
[10:45] {davd} silver could get a short squeeze
[10:45] {dino} iphi sm l .60
[10:46] {ese} have a great day all......corporate Canada calls....
[10:47] {dino} cya
[10:47] {Threei}  take care ese... sell them all we've got
[10:47] {Threei}  make them pay their share
[10:53] {RonS} eur lod 1.4260
[10:56] {RonS} so...on iphi i have level 2 up w/ t&s showing little volume but my volume indicator on the chart showed 8100 sh last minute...explanation anyone?
[10:57] {davd} uup closed gap of last 2 weeks
[10:57] {Threei}  in three days
[10:57] {davd} isnt that always the way?
[10:58] {Threei}  mine has no such spike ron... don't hjave explanation other than your software is erroneous
[10:58] {RonS} thanks
[10:59] {_samire} do you trade till market close ?
[11:01] {Threei}  yes but our activity changes with market's
[11:01] {nemo} it's.......
[11:01] {nemo} COMA TIME!!!!
[11:02] {dino} risky, sm l medw .75, wide
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: NUAN  .50 break
[11:06] {Threei}  stop above .60
[11:07] {jfjf64} .47
[11:07] {Threei}  target 1:2, 1:3
[11:09] {Threei}  American International Group, Inc Has begun road show for secondary, as expected; expected to run for the next week - US press citing sources
[11:13] {Threei}  lol.. spam mail says:
[11:13] {Threei}  Contact +25.000 of cute real people near your area
[11:13] {Threei}  cute real people?
[11:14] {RonS} better than ugly fake ones?
[11:14] {Threei}  I hope
[11:14] {Threei}  'cause if not, where is the relief...
[11:15] {Threei}  NUAN held by fingertips
[11:17] {dino} irf rinsed
[11:21] {Threei}  stopped
[11:25] {Threei}  market is like amoeba
[11:25] {dino} indeed
[11:27] {Threei}  we need another round of Greece news to shake things up
[11:30] {davd} imo - if commodities hold these level could see another uptrend end of day re slv gld dbo
[11:32] {Threei}  quite possibly - USD run into resistance and is likely to pull back some which will help commodities rebound
[11:38] {davd} email spam and the pakastani govt should be business partners
[11:39] {davd} feels like low volume day?
[11:39] {Threei}  so far, yes
[11:40] {Threei}  it's almost like everything is stuck in slow motion, waiting for the second shoe to dfrop
[11:40] {davd} flop or drop?  rimm holding its lows?
[11:40] {Threei}  this whole Greece thing can't end without bang, can it?
[11:40] {davd} or a broken plate.
[11:41] {dino}  it just might, been going on for a year.
[11:42] {Threei}  I just don't see how
[11:42] {dino} that my be the reason why
[11:42] {Threei}  spreads widen, austerity hurts
[11:42] {dino} may
[11:42] {Threei}  nothing happens to relieve the pain
[11:42] {Threei}  and it's really hard to imagine what could possibly do it
[11:43] {Threei}  to me, debt restructuring or outright default seem unavoidable
[11:43] {dino} re-structure into long term brady bond type deal, imo
[11:44] {Threei}  but debt restructuring, whatever form it takes, means ominous consequences for the rest of eurozone
[11:45] {dino} the way i see it, is restructuring is the preferrable answer. just a matter of time.
[11:45] {Threei}  yes...
[11:45] {Threei}  then Ireland says 'wait you just a minute"
[11:45] {Threei}  and Portugal says "kcuse me"
[11:45] {Threei}  and german taxpayer says "say what?"
[11:46] {Threei}  and whole thing falls apart faster than house of card
[11:46] {dino} and i think the bankers, etc know it, so perhaps priced close to in. and yes the others will follow, but afain, i think most in charge know this, as in they are already working on it
[11:47] {dino} imo, its the only answer. they knew it a year ago
[11:47] {Threei}  I dunno... you give them too much credit imo... for those people, hope triumpns over common sense
[11:48] {Threei}  for them EU collaps is "unthinkable"
[11:48] {Threei}  (GR) Fitch may be planning to downgrade Greece rating 4 or 5 notches to as far as B- from BB+ -Germany press citing sources
[11:48] {Threei}  - Reminder: in March Fitch commented that Greece's sovereign ratings could fall sharply unless the country can regain market access
[11:49] {Threei}  there
[11:49] {Threei}  saga continues
[11:49] {dino} but again, who doesn't already know greek debt is junk
[11:50] {Threei}  true... but what can they do?
[11:50] {Threei}  they are trapped
[11:50] {dino} hell, greece needs milken to package this one
[11:50] {Threei}  debt holders I mean
[11:50] {Threei}  their options range form bad to worse
[11:51] {dino} the debt holders are screwed, they will accept whatever they get. simple as that
[11:51] {dino} their preferred solution, imo, is resturctured and lengthened
[11:51] {Threei}  yes, and look what happens as a result. CDS spreads:
[11:51] {Threei}  Port 658bp (+26)
[11:52] {Threei}  Ire 685 (+30)
[11:52] {Threei}  Italy 165 (+12)
[11:52] {Threei}  Esp 259 (+16)
[11:52] {dino} i understand, but it is what it is. if greece cannot pay, they cannot pay. again, go back to 80s, brady bond across latin america.
[11:52] {Threei}  Greece 1382 (+65)
[11:52] {jfjf64} mkt
[11:53] {jfjf64} flyin
[11:53] {Threei}  yeah... there difference is, latin america didn't have formal union wioth single currency... Europe does, and that's the structure survival of which is at stake
[11:53] {Threei}  IMO, it won't
[11:55] {dino} well, if i were the germans, i would not want it to survive, but in eother case, greece will be restuctured, then the next etc. better some than none
[11:55] {dino} it's really not greece's problem anymore, its the creditors' problem
[11:56] {Threei}  true :)
[11:56] {dino} ;)
[11:56] {Threei}  as old joke goes, if you borrowed 100 bucks and can't return it, it's your problem... if 100 million, it's your lender's problem
[11:56] {dino} bingo!
[11:57] {RonS} John Paul Getty said it first...
[11:58] {dino} its a game of guts poker and greece is now holding the aces
[11:58] {RonS} in the '60's...numbers in original quote was $50k and $10 million
[11:59] {RonS} ...similat to Sen Everett Dirkson's quote;  ...a million here, a million there...and pretty soon you are talking about real money
[12:00] {dino} i just see it as the euro countries went "all in"
[12:00] {RonS} similar...also from the '60's ...the numbers since have been blown out of proportion
[12:00] {dino} may we live in interesting times
[12:01] {nemo} as long as there's alcohol
[12:01] {RonS} Shakespeare...or Mae West?
[12:01] {dino} but of course
[12:02] {dino} ppl spike
[12:02] {Threei}  MOS
[12:02] {Threei}  secondaries
[12:04] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Labor Min Katseli: may be difficult to return to bond market in 2012, discussing alternatives
[12:06] {Threei}  no news for this market spike
[12:07] {Threei}  watching TZA as a vehicle to play market pullback
[12:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[12:09] {Threei}  stop for scalpers under .65, day traders .60
[12:10] {Threei}  target about .95
[12:13] {Threei}  OK SPY, enough playing hero, just drop already
[12:14] {nemo} IWM is going to  84.15 first
[12:14] {nemo} stopped
[12:15] {Threei}  yeah
[12:16] {Threei}  jellyfishy monday
[12:18] {_samire} TZA still valid ?
[12:19] {Threei}  no
[12:19] {nemo} I would say here
[12:19] {_samire} ok
[12:19] {Threei}  (GR) Moody's places ratings on review for downgrade
[12:20] {Threei}  if TZA pulls back to about .50 - .55, will be interested in double bottom play
[12:20] {_samire} it does not say any where above TZA is not valid ?
[12:21] {nemo} O
[12:21] {Threei}  here it is:
[12:21] {nemo} , om /61
[12:21] {Threei}  [12:09] {Threei} stop for scalpers under .65, day traders .60
[12:21] {nemo} i'm in .61
[12:21] {RonS} 10:14 nemo stopped
[12:21] {Threei}  under those support levels play is invalidated or stopped
[12:21] {RonS} 10:14 Threei  yeah
[12:21] {nemo} yeah, and went back in: [12:19] {nemo} I would say here
[12:22] {dino} out hrs .01, +.30
[12:24] {nemo} i'm out here
[12:25] {nemo} basically flat
[12:25] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[12:25] {nemo} idiot me
[12:32] {dino} iphi to flat
[12:32] {dino} nothings' moving
[12:35] {Threei}  still watching .50 - .55 for entry
[12:38] {Threei}  stop under .45
[12:42] {Threei}  if this one is working, it's a milk trade
[12:43] {Threei}  eventual target is about 35.10 - 35.20
[12:54] {Threei}  half out
[12:54] {Threei}  .72
[12:55] {Threei}  next partal target is about .90 - .95
[12:55] {Threei}  stop .49
[12:55] {Threei}  took its sweet time but finally came through
06[13:00] * Threei kicks TZA in the rear
[13:38] {Threei}  (PO) Portugal authorities begin criminal investigation into ratings agencies
[13:38] {Threei}  lol
[13:38] {Threei}  you downgrade me, I investigate you
[13:39] {Threei}  China official claims the US and China officials have reached a consensus, due for announcement tommorow
[13:39] {Threei}  - Reiterates two countries have more in agreement than they do in disagreement, concerns from Western countries about the China FX rate are 'unfounded.'
[13:39] {Threei}  - Notes the US is the only country that has a substantial trade imbalance with China.
[13:41] {Threei}  must be the longets trade in a month
[13:41] {Threei}  if not a year
[13:50] {dino}  .
[13:50] {Threei}  (EG) US Officials evaluating options for Egypt, including debt relief - world press
[14:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break
[14:14] {Threei}  stop under .50
[14:15] {Threei}  TZA scalpers win
[14:17] {Threei}  no go SLW
[14:20] {Threei}  anyone is still awake?
[14:21] {RonS} how not, feel like a cutter in a razor blade factory...
[14:22] {dino}   gotta hop, back in hour or so
[14:22] {RonS} :)
[14:23] {Threei}  SLW rinse
[14:28] {Threei}  so far almsot flat day for me
[14:28] {Threei}  just slightly in green, not enough to justify ink spent on marking it as green
[14:31] {Threei}  as jf said, rinses are so wrong
[14:53] {Threei} Short Setup: AMZN  201 break half lot
[14:53] {Threei}  if stays under .15
[14:53] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:55] {dino} iphi to .91
[14:55] {Threei}  if consolidates here for a couple min, will be valid again
[15:03] {davd} amzn?
[15:03] {Threei}  ?
[15:04] {davd} back on radar?
[15:04] {Threei}  yes but need some consolidation closer to support
[15:04] {davd} ok - sorry.
[15:07] {dino} out iphi .935 ave +.335
[15:08] {Threei}  better than rinse
[15:09] {dino} y
[15:28] {Threei}  friking SLW
[15:28] {Threei}  that was not very noble of it tyo sdhake us out
[15:28] {Threei}  shake
[15:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .65 break
[15:36] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[15:37] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[15:42] {Threei}  I dislike most Mondays, and today is no exception
[15:53] {Threei}  feel free to take profit on X
[15:53] {dino} me too, mondays are usually a low day for me, as are fridays
[15:56] {Threei}  well, finishing in green but barely enough to justify waking up
[15:57] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all, have a great evenng
[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow for more active day
[15:57] {tomg} thanks, Vad
[15:57] {nemo} gnite
[15:58] {dino} cya