Friday, June 10, 2011

Jun 10 2011

Beautiful trading day, total reverse of yesterday. A lot of winning trades and the best one is a milk trade below.
The best trade is when the whole plan is laid out in advance - and comes true as if it were a blueprint. Judge for yourself:

[10:26] {Threei} pullback to about .40 is likely, TZA
[10:26] where I'll try to find entry
[10:26] .60 break may leave us in dust but way too risky for entry

[10:30] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .40 break
[10:30] stop under .30
[10:30] if works, let's try this:
[10:31] half out abround 1:1, 1/4 out near 1:2, then just trail stop
[10:31] first two parts out
[10:31] now, keep b/e stop for the last part
[10:32] and let's see if we get real run out of last piece
[10:33] SPY breakdown of 128 is what we need for this one to skyrocket


[11:08] {Threei} 1:10
[11:08] {Threei} my a$$ is out

Chart illustrates the narrative.

Session Time: Fri Jun 10 00:00:00 2011
[05:47] {davd} .
[08:31] {Threei}  (FR) S&P comments on France: Reiterates call for additional reforms to maintain long-term 'AAA' soverign rating; Likely to be Downgraded by 2020 without such reforms
[08:31] {Threei}  *(US) MAY IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.2% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: 12.5% V 11.2%E
[09:02] {Threei}  (GR) ECB's Stark: Private sector participation in Greece debt restructuring is highly unlikely
[09:02] {Threei}  - Notes that he is "personally" in favor of private sector participation in Greece restructuring.
[09:02] {Threei}  - ECB is not against private sector participation in Greece debt restructuring, ECB did not demand private participation.
[09:02] {Threei}  - Believes the entire restructuring debate is simply a distraction from Greece continuing its reforms.
[09:02] {Threei}  - Greece's debt to GDP ratio will be sustainable if the country sticks to the IMF/EU program.
[09:02] {Threei}  - Sees no need for Greece debt restructuring if the govt simply stuck to and completed already announced reforms.
[09:02] {Threei}  - It remains to be seen whether the ECB would accept swapped Greek bond.
[09:10] {_nsj100} gm vad. thanks for good learning day yesterday. i was pleased to see losses held tight and accuate reading from you on a tough trading day. thanks.
[09:11] {Threei}  hi nsj
[09:11] {Threei}  funny that in a long winning streak you happen to start your trial on a losing day
[09:11] {Threei}  glad it didn't turn you off :)
[09:12] {_nsj100} i know how that goes.
[09:12] {Threei}  cool beans... many don't, sad to say
[09:12] {_nsj100} its not my first rodeo
[09:13] {Threei}  I used to keep collection of e-mails I get
[09:13] {Threei}  something like "most outrageous"
[09:13] {_nsj100} lol
[09:13] {Threei}  you wouldn't believe some of them
[09:13] {Threei}  making me feel like I am on some different planet than correspondent
[09:14] {_nsj100} money can bring out the best and worst in folks sometimes
[09:14] {Threei}  then again, not to go far for a sample of that, a guy writes a review of TTR:
[09:14] {Threei}  bad book, no indicator. get a book with indicator
[09:15] {Threei}  I am not kidding, this was actually posted on amazon or barnes and noble, not sure
[09:15] {_nsj100} someone looking for holy grail of indicators i think. no such stuff
[09:16] {nemo} chicken entrails
[09:16] {Threei}  for a while after that I used to insert on any comment about TTR: sorry, it has no indicator
[09:16] {Threei}  people'd ask: what indicator?
[09:16] {Threei}  I'd answer: exactly!
[09:16] {_nsj100} wow
[09:16] {Threei}  laughter ensues
[09:17] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Gov't: Labor laws to introduce German-style reduced hours
[09:17] {_nsj100} time for more tea bbs
[09:18] {Threei}  just don't tell jf you drink tea in the morning, he is sorely disappointed in anyone who doesn'tr start the day with alcohol-containing drinks
[09:18] {larisa} gm :)
[09:18] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:18] {Natali} gm:)
[09:19] {Threei}  natali :)
[09:22] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:22] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:23] {Threei}  looking at daily, SLW... yesteday's bounce is on lower volume than most of red days
[09:24] {dino} gm all
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:25] {Threei}  so, however suprizing it may be, looking for SLW short first thing
[09:26] {Threei}  FCX too
[09:27] {Threei}  RIMM{ will look at this one a bit later, when morning volatility drops off a little
[09:27] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:27] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:29] {Threei}  SPY bounce touched upper envelope
[09:29] {Threei}  of descending channel
[09:30] {jfjf64} please go over  later
[09:30] {jfjf64} ty
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .65 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays unxer .75
[09:32] {jfjf64} in
[09:32] {rizvisy1} gm
[09:32] {Threei}  riz :)
[09:32] {Threei}  target .30 or so
[09:32] {Threei}  three partials
[09:32] {jfjf64} to early  4 violencre
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  stop to .71
[09:33] {jfjf64} dieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
[09:34] {Threei}  1:2
[09:34] {Threei}  stop to b/e
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: X  43 break half lot
[09:39] {RonS} dino, snagged rld for .20 to .80...may be a player today
[09:39] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:41] {Threei}  closed last 1/4 of SLW
[09:41] {samire} rimm ....possible long  ??
[09:41] {samire} late
[09:41] {Threei}  yeah, .20 break
[09:41] {Threei}  was late to look
[09:41] {Threei}  but good you spotted the setup
[09:42] {samire} learning from VAD
[09:42] {dino}  gj ron
[09:43] {Threei}  RIMM
[09:43] {Threei}  sharp pullback
[09:43] {Threei}  possible double bottom
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .20 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if holding .10
[09:43] {Threei}  if loses it, watch for holding 37, with .10 becoming a long trigger
[09:44] {Threei}  second scenario in play
[09:45] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:46] {rizvisy1} I would suggest TZA for long rather
[09:47] {samire} rimm long   ?
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[09:47] {RonS} hearing steel up on ms comments...
[09:47] {Threei}  if holding .50
[09:47] {dino} pgp sm l .12
[09:48] {Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {ese} damn....finally
[09:48] {Threei}  finally unglued your eyelids?? :)
[09:48] {ese} morning
[09:48] {Threei}  told ya.. industrial strength solvent does it
[09:48] {ese} nahhh....stupid internet problems here
[09:49] {dino} amrn sm l .15
[09:49] {ese} lol
[09:49] {Threei}  well... same recipe... sorry, I havbe just one recipe for all life problems
[09:49] {ese} i miss anything.......whos filthy stinking rich.....ehhhh
[09:50] {Threei}  we all do... with nemo screaming "faster, get them all while ese's out"
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .90 break
[09:50] {Threei}  if stsays under 37
[09:50] {ese} thats why i'm on this board..........for the laughs
[09:50] {Threei}  surely not for my looks
[09:50] {ese} lol
[09:51] {dino} ctrp sm l .27
[09:51] {ese} this looks like a weak early morning sell off......anyone else with that conclusion
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:53] {dino} yes
[09:53] {Threei}  stop above .50 of course
[09:54] {Threei}  RIMM setup is reestablished
[09:54] {ese} tks
[09:54] {Threei}  ugh... too late?
[09:55] {Threei}  FCX no worky
[09:55] {Threei}  rinse most likely
[09:55] {Threei}  RIMM's not a scalp
[09:55] {Threei}  can do much more
[09:58] {Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {Threei}  half out, stop to .95
[09:58] {Threei}  FCX rinse, as foretold in ancient prophecies
[09:58] {Threei}  disgusting piece of crap
[09:59] {Threei}  pardon my russian
[09:59] {RonS} hung in w/ fcx from .44 to .28  thanks 3i...futes were weakening
[09:59] {Threei}  closed RIMM balance
[09:59] {Threei}  good variation, Ron
[10:00] {Threei}  aggressive entries giv a bit more room for breathing
[10:00] {RonS} but i missed rimm...
[10:00] {Threei}  gave jjust 1:1... nothing stellar
[10:01] {Threei}  looked much more promising
[10:05] {dino} afl sm l .53
[10:06] {RonS} hearing pgp nav premium was 69% before this drop dino...fwiw
[10:06] {dino} thx
[10:06] {Threei}  market is very weak, and we lost the low from Wed
[10:07] {Threei}  still, bounce is coming I think
[10:07] {Threei}  just a temporary relief, but can be quite a vicious snapback
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break
[10:08] {Threei}  half lot
[10:08] {dino} stop pgp -.16
[10:08] {Threei}  volatility is increasing here
[10:09] {Threei}  stop is obvious
[10:10] {jfjf64} in
[10:11] {jfjf64} comon  baby
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:11] {jfjf64} out
[10:11] {jfjf64} ty
[10:11] {dino} gj
[10:11] {Threei}  yw
[10:12] {RonS} got fcx .06 to .18  thanks 3i
[10:12] {Threei}  :)
[10:13] {RonS} fwiw...the unexpected volitilty of yest and today may be due to fute contracts in process of rollover
[10:13] {RonS} it throws off the indicators of what the big guys are doing
[10:13] {RonS} everyone is in the dark
[10:13] {Threei}  very likely, plus it was a time for relief rally anyway
[10:13] {RonS} cannot tell if volume is rollover related or real
[10:14] {Threei}  just look at daily from 13 SPY
[10:14] {Threei}  135
[10:14] {Threei}  quite a selloff
[10:15] {dino} tfm sm l .70
[10:15] {RonS} ctrp stopped for me
[10:15] {dino} .89 stop for me
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  70 break
[10:16] {Threei}  half lot
[10:16] {Threei}  if holding .90
[10:17] {samire} no tna ?
[10:17] {samire} tza  ?
[10:17] {Threei}  1:2 FCX, out in full
[10:17] {Threei}  TNA for long market
[10:17] {Threei}  TZA for short
[10:18] {Threei}  playing bounce here, so TNA
[10:18] {nemo} or, if you don't want the juice...iwm
[10:18] {Threei}  1:1
[10:18] {Threei}  here comes my vicious snapback
[10:18] {dino} panl sm l .25
[10:19] {Threei}  1:2
[10:20] {Threei}  have to admit, both FCX and TNA plays are 90% gut feeling
[10:21] {patience} only money i'm making today is in agrium and tck
[10:21] {patience} and my pot
[10:21] {Threei}  did they legalize it yet??
06[10:22] * Threei hurriedly prepares soil and fertilizers
[10:22] {patience} the children in my house seem to think they did
[10:23] {ese} lol
[10:24] {Threei}  was thinking of TZA under .20... never got there
[10:26] {Threei}  pullback to about .40 is likely, TZA
[10:26] {Threei}  where I'll try to find entry
[10:26] {Threei}  .60 break may leave us in dust but way too risky for entry
[10:29] {nemo} long tna .81
[10:29] {nemo} I be scalpin .91 partial
[10:29] {nemo} got .93
[10:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[10:30] {nemo} little more .03
[10:30] {nemo} riding 1/4
[10:30] {Threei}  stop under .30
[10:30] {Threei}  if works, let's try this:
[10:31] {nemo} stop is .81
[10:31] {Threei}  half out abround 1:1
[10:31] {nemo} out
[10:31] {Threei}  1/4 out near 1:2
[10:31] {Threei}  then just trail stop
[10:31] {Threei}  first two parts out
[10:31] {Threei}  now, keep b/e stop for the last part
[10:32] {Threei}  and let's see if we get real run out of last piece
[10:32] {Threei}  1:3
[10:32] {Threei}  stop to .45
[10:32] {Threei}  was it oerfect entry or what
[10:32] {Threei}  foretold in advance too
[10:33] {Threei}  SPY breakdown of 128 is what we need
[10:33] {Threei}  for this one to skyrocket
[10:36] {Threei}  are you all in sudden coma?
[10:36] {dino}  amrn stop -.30
[10:37] {patience} i am researching best way to play raw food
[10:37] {ese} lol
[10:38] {ese} like.....unbarbecued steak?
[10:38] {ese} L qpsa .91
[10:38] {Threei}  is there any other way to eat it??
[10:38] {RonS} corn, soybeans, wheat....futures
[10:39] {patience} look at the chart for vsi, on a weekly basis for the past year
[10:39] {Threei}  come on SPY
[10:39] {Threei}  drop to 128 and break it
[10:39] {dino} amrn drop
[10:39] {Threei}  and party will be on big time
[10:39] {ese} exited qpsa yesterday at .34 for a +.15      .19 to .34
[10:39] {patience} i am heavily into vitamins, why oh why did the brain not clue in
[10:39] {RonS} gj ese
[10:40] {ese} tks's dino style........thin
[10:40] {dino} sm l .75
[10:40] {Threei}  TZA stop to .49
[10:40] {dino} gj ese
[10:40] {Threei}  here we go
[10:40] {Threei}  run forrest, run
[10:41] {Threei}  1:4
[10:41] {Threei}  stop to .59
[10:41] {RonS} $AMRN CEO on Bloomberg: Deal may not happen until later this year or next year.
[10:42] {dino} saw it, ty
[10:43] {Threei}  folks, there is no telling how far this can go or when reverse - uncharted territory
[10:44] {Threei}  so, decide for yourself where to take profit
[10:44] {patience} now
[10:45] {patience} ty
[10:45] {Threei}  I'll be trailing it for now but I have a bone to pick with trading gods who had a biot too much fun with me yesterday
[10:46] {Threei}  so I feel like picking up Thor's hammer and having some fun on my own
[10:47] {Threei}  1:5
[10:49] {davd} apple recall
[10:49] {Threei}  verizon batch
[10:49] {dino} out tfm .25, +.55
[10:50] {dino} out panl .64, +.39
[10:50] {RonS} gj
[10:50] {Threei}  nice
[10:50] {dino} meli sm l .37
[10:50] {dino} ty
[10:51] {dino} whr sm l .08
[10:51] {Threei}  stop to .65
[10:55] {Threei}  ese, look dcc when got a min please
[10:55] {Threei}  jf, you here?
06[10:56] * Threei slaps jfjf64 around a bit with a 2-4-shaped attention-getter
[10:56] {Threei}  stop to .69
[10:57] {Threei}  1:6
[10:58] {dino} ctrp stop -.38
[11:03] {dino} out amrn .20, +.45
[11:04] {Threei}  1:7 baby
[11:04] {Threei}  stop to .85
[11:04] {patience} nice
[11:06] {Threei}  1:8
[11:06] {Threei}  stop to .95
[11:06] {Threei}  trailing a little more aggressive now
[11:07] {Threei}  going parabolic
[11:07] {Threei}  1:9
[11:07] {jfjf64} oh  boy
[11:07] {Threei}  getting ready to bail
[11:07] {jfjf64} i messed  up
[11:07] {Threei}  laid out the plan well in advance...
[11:08] {Threei}  and it worked as if it were a blueprint
[11:08] {jfjf64} stepped  away
[11:08] {jfjf64} what  a  trade
[11:08] {Threei}  1:10
[11:08] {jfjf64} great  job
[11:08] {dino} ndx gap 2221
[11:08] {Threei}  my a$$ is out
[11:08] {dino} then 2202
[11:08] {dino} wtfg vad
[11:08] {Threei}  tyks
[11:08] {Threei}  which is short for thank you kind sir
[11:09] {jfjf64} wtfg  x 10
[11:09] {jfjf64} yeah
[11:09] {ese} nice one chief
[11:09] {davd} tna .2
[11:09] {davd} l
[11:09] {Threei}  I believe I got my revenge for yesterday
[11:09] {Threei}  and then some
[11:10] {Threei}  jf, while we are on it
[11:10] {nemo} can we start talking about when tza overtakes tna?
[11:10] {Threei}  on your morning question
[11:10] {Threei}  look at 1 min SPY pls
[11:10] {jfjf64} k
[11:10] {Threei}  8:09 high,
[11:11] {Threei}  then 8:40 high
[11:11] {jfjf64} k
[11:11] {Threei}  draw a line through them
[11:11] {Threei}  then look at 9:31 high
[11:11] {Threei}  that line is upper envelope of downtrending channel,
[11:11] {Threei}  SPY bounces right into it at 9:31
[11:12] {davd} out tna .5
[11:12] {jfjf64} hmm
[11:12] {Threei}  so it's at the resistance of the channel, and if the trend intact, that's where it's like to reverse back down
[11:12] {Threei}  that was the context of my comment
[11:12] {jfjf64} ty
[11:12] {jfjf64} will review further
[11:12] {Threei}  09:29] {Alert} Threei SPY bounce touched upper envelope
[11:13] {RonS} quote of the day:  only thing we know people will still buy is yoga pants
[11:13] {jfjf64} take  the  rest  day  off
[11:15] {Threei}  lol Ron
[11:18] {jfjf64} lvs
[11:18] {jfjf64} lower
[11:19] {jfjf64} short into bounce
[11:21] {jfjf64} .35 recross
[11:22] {jfjf64} nope
[11:26] {dino} amrn sm l .76
[11:27] {Threei}  sheesh... not only we squeezed full buck out of TZA, we exited it darn near the top
[11:37] {_nsj100} vad, when you call for 1:1,1:2 etc rr is that for the entire first lot or on remaining after each exit?
[11:38] {davd} spy at vwap
[11:38] {Threei}
[11:38] {Threei}  scroll down to
[11:38] {Threei}  How trading room operates
[11:38] {_nsj100} thanks
[11:38] {davd} same but opposite here, could have squeezed more out of tna
[11:39] {Threei}  well, TNA is more volatile
[11:40] {davd} funny
[11:40] {_nsj100} got the rr now thanks
[11:41] {Threei}  :)
[11:45] {Threei}  rofl
[11:45] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou: Requests all parties submit proposals towards the mid term plan; will consider any smart ideas
[11:45] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou: because God knows we have had enough of dumb ones
[11:46] {Threei}  and Zeus swore to kill the next one suggesting new round of austerity measures
[11:47] {dino} out amrn .20 +.44
[12:08] {ese} am liken qpsa right now
[12:17] {dino} mkts dead
[12:19] {ese} i'll say
[12:38] {nemo} mmhhhh...the wine is calling my name
[12:39] {RonS} siren song of bacchus, eh?
[12:39] {nemo} wow, nice mix of metaphors  with the hope Scylla and Charbydis don't do me in
[12:39] {dino}  lol nemo, lawn is singing mine
[12:39] {RonS} does anyone use benzinga for anything?
[12:40] {nemo} don't even know what it is
[12:40] {nemo} lawn's don't talk dino...probably the crickets
[12:40] {RonS} siren song of toro, eh dino?
[12:40] {dino} john deer
[12:40] {nemo} that would be the taurine song
[12:41] {RonS} ya must be a rider dude...
[12:41] {nemo} not to be confused with the tangerine song
[12:41] {nemo} oh shit...summer Fridays
[12:41] {RonS} lol
[12:41] {nemo} this could really get out of hand
[12:41] {dino} hea, 3 acres to mow, other 4 let grow
[12:41] {dino} yeah
[12:42] {RonS} at least the new people know someone is out here...
[12:43] {dino} bazinga, thats from sheldon
[12:43] {RonS} who's sheldon?
[12:43] {dino} that nerd sitcom
[12:43] {dino} watched it last night but forget the name, funny show
[12:44] {dino} big bang theory
[12:46] {dino} out afl .67, +.14
[12:46] {dino} ok, going to mow lawn, might be back around 3
[12:52] {RonS} sounds fast for 3 acres...
[12:52] {nemo} it's modified
[13:14] {RonS} fcx lod
[13:15] {nemo} oh...forgot guess I have to hate Vad, ese, and patience at least until next Wednesday
[13:18] {Threei}  why Wed?
[13:18] {nemo} well, latest...Stanley Cup Finals
[13:18] {Threei}  oh, I see
[13:19] {nemo} you understand...
[13:21] {Threei}  of course
[13:22] {nemo} don't worry about the "ticking" sound in the package I sent you...
[13:23] {nemo} Would I turn on the gas if my friend Bugsy was in there?
[13:24] {nemo} You might rabbit, you might (said in a thick Irish brogue)
[13:24] {nemo} Would I throw a lit match in there if my friend Bugsy was in there (BOOM!)
[13:24] {Threei}  sheesh... you are on your second bottle?
[13:24] {nemo} Well, I guess not, let's go Clancy...
[13:42] {Threei}  ugh
[13:42] {Threei}  was think CVX short 99.50 break
[13:43] {Threei}  was thinking
[13:44] {Threei}  too bad decided against it
[14:00] {Threei}  - Total receipts: $174.9B v $146.8B y/y
[14:00] {Threei}  - Total Outlays: $232.5B v $282.7B y/y
[14:02] {davd} why would anyone trade off that?
[14:03] {Threei}  ummm
[14:03] {Threei}  I don't know how to answer that, lol
[14:03] {Threei}  but why do you ask?
[14:06] {davd} coincided w pop
[14:07] {davd} fins up re charges less
[14:07] {Threei}  well, deficit is less than exepcted
[14:08] {nemo} all banks flying
[14:08] {Threei}  finnies are up on diff news
[14:08] {Threei}  Capital charges on large financial institutions to be at 2-2.5% vs 3% prior expectation - CNBC citing sources
[14:08] {davd} it was the banks :O
[14:09] {davd} holy g-d
[14:09] {RonS} big fute sellers showing up
[14:09] {Threei}  {Blankfein} yes davd... doing g-ds work, you know
[14:09] {Threei}  this just will be smacked diown hard I bet
[14:10] {Threei}  this jump
[14:16] {davd} see if s&p holds 1275 - big number
[14:34] {dino} .
[14:39] {dino} entg spike
[14:40] {dino} wow almost filled 2221
[14:55] {Threei}  guys, I have an idea
[14:55] {dino} mcgc spike
[14:55] {Threei}  let's call it a week and have a weekend 1 hour longer
[14:56] {Threei}  my brain refuses to work
[14:56] {Threei}  not that I need it much for trading but still
[14:56] {dino} too fast
[14:56] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend, see you all on Monday
[14:56] {davd} gracias
[14:57] {_nsj100} adios
[14:57] {Threei}  hope today wrked etter for you njs
[14:57] {davd} your going to miss 12k
[14:57] {Threei}  better
[14:57] {_nsj100} yes thanks
[14:57] {Threei}  that's OK davd,... I;'ve seen it a few times already :)
[14:57] {_nsj100} see ya monday
[14:58] {dino} whr to .49
[14:58] {davd} ive got hat burn
[14:58] {dino} to .59
[15:00] {dino} to .68
[15:01] {dino} out whr .68, +.60