Monday, June 13, 2011

Jun 13 2011

Quite remarkable day from the point of view of risk management. Rough start with a few morning stop put us under water, seemingly to deep for the day to be hopeless. Then one big win where we allowed profits develop erased most of losses - and then we managed the rest of the day into nice profits. Read the discussion of the strategy as the day developed, it's well worth it.

Session Time: Mon Jun 13 00:00:01 2011
[08:28] {nemo} Hello hated Vancouverites
[08:42] {Threei}  yawn
[08:47] {Threei}  (GR) Netherlands Fin Min de Jager: The private sector needs to offer greater contribution if Netherlands are to offer additional Greek aid- Involvement could mean extension of debt maturities
[09:11] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Trichet reiterates blah blah blah and at the end says:
[09:11] {Threei}  - Notes again that EMU budget deficits are half that of the US or Japan.
[09:11] {Threei}  in %? Or dollars?
[09:13] {samire} gm
[09:13] {Threei}  samire :)
[09:14] {dino} gm all
[09:14] {larisa} gm :)
[09:15] {dino} in % i think 3i, japan is somewhere around 180%
[09:16] {Threei}  dino, larisa :)
[09:16] {Threei}  ok... then everything's fine in Euro land {G}
[09:16] {Threei}  SLW is red in green market
[09:17] {_nsj100} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  nsj :)
[09:17] {_nsj100} thanks for email vad.
[09:18] {Threei}  sure thing
[09:20] {rizvisy1} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  riz :)
[09:22] {Threei}  SLW short is first thought
[09:22] {Threei}  hopefully will form decent setup, not just drops right out of the gate
[09:24] {Threei}  in case you wondered about CREE,
[09:24] {Threei}  Cree Inc Early strength attributed to President Obama scheduling an appearance today at a CREE LED plant- Obama will deliver his remarks at approx 11:40ET
[09:24] {Threei}  if that's the only reason, I'd say short the living daylight out of it
[09:26] {ese} morning
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:27] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:27] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:27] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:28] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:28] {Threei}  ok, my face is cracking up in the middle of all these smiles... no one says hello anymore, my smiling muscles arfe not that well trained
[09:29] {Threei}  come on SLW, bounce a bit for us
[09:29] {samire} are you looking for a long or short on slw ??
[09:30] {Threei}  [09:16] {Threei} SLW is red in green market
[09:30] {Threei}  [09:22] {Threei} SLW short is first thought
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break if stays under .70
[09:31] {Threei}  grrrr... late
[09:32] {Threei}  1;2
[09:32] {Threei}  double grr
[09:33] {Threei}  let's see, maybe second chance thanks to opening volatility
[09:34] {Threei}  OK
[09:34] {Threei}  same setup
[09:35] {jfjf64} wippin
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[09:37] {Threei}  not a scalp
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .75 break
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[09:39] {dino} amrn sm l .85
[09:40] {Threei}  market sudden spike
[09:41] {Threei}  FCX no worky
[09:41] {dino} options exp week, watch pin action
[09:42] {Threei}  SLW stays weak
[09:42] {jfjf64} dieeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
[09:43] {Threei}  with market pullback should revisit the low
[09:44] {Threei}  no go
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break half lot
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[09:48] {Threei}  let's make it aggressive entry .45 break
[09:49] {Threei}  SLW rinse
[09:50] {Threei}  1:2... slimy bastard
[09:51] {Threei}  CAT, modify setup to .30 - .40
[09:51] {Threei}  .40 break long if stays above .30
[09:51] {Threei}  target .80
[09:53] {Threei}  SLW is on its way to the target... can you believe it?
[09:53] {Threei}  no go CAT
[09:53] {Threei}  so far, not our day
[09:53] {jfjf64} dirty  rat  basterd
[09:54] {Threei}  that SLW is
[09:54] {jfjf64} yes
[09:54] {jfjf64} deep breath
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .85 break
[09:56] {Threei}  if stays above .75
[10:00] {Threei}  two-sided setup
[10:01] {Threei}  wow
[10:01] {Threei}  what the deuce
[10:03] {jfjf64} .80  break  agg
[10:03] {jfjf64} imo
[10:03] {jfjf64} ?
[10:03] {Threei}  (EU) ECB Trichet: ECB has its own collateral framework; not assuming that any countries will leave the Eurozone
[10:03] {Threei}  - Reitetates view that EU must avoid action tht would trigger a credit event and any restructuring must be voluntary
[10:03] {Threei}  - ECB does not decide on sovereign debt actions
[10:03] {Threei}  **Reminder: On Jun 10th ECB member Liikanen commented that the ECB should rethink its collateral policy and segregate between collateral
[10:03] {Threei}  agg?
[10:04] {jfjf64} in
[10:04] {jfjf64} .82
[10:04] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:05] {Threei}  jf, you actually got me looking at stock AGG
[10:05] {jfjf64} lol
[10:05] {jfjf64} sorry
[10:05] {jfjf64} aggresive
[10:05] {jfjf64} reachin
[10:05] {jfjf64} sd of  stayed  in  bed
[10:05] {Threei}  lol
[10:06] {Threei}  dunno, it doesn't trigger on either side
[10:06] {samire} are you taking rimm long at .85 break ?
[10:06] {Threei}  and market makes these weird spikes
[10:06] {samire} ??????
[10:07] {Threei}  samire, what is unclear??
[10:07] {Threei}  .85 break long trigger
[10:07] {samire} if u changed your mind
[10:07] {Threei}  it never invaliadetd
[10:07] {Threei}  why would I if it didn't invalidate?
[10:08] {dino} panl sm l .90
[10:08] {Threei}  .85 break long, .75 break short
[10:11] {jfjf64} comon  3i  get  out  the 2x4
[10:12] {ese} intelliscan down again?
[10:12] {Threei}  but I don't know which way
[10:12] {jfjf64} lol
[10:12] {Threei}  no ese, works fine
[10:12] {Threei}  what do you mean again... when was it down last time??
[10:13] {ese} i have had more internet problems in the last 4/5 months than in the last 5 years
[10:13] {Threei}  but that's not intelliscan
[10:13] {ese} a month or so ago vad
[10:13] {Threei}  it's your ISP
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .70
[10:15] {Threei}  half lot
[10:18] {Threei}  if loses .60, target is .40 at least, possibly more
[10:19] {Threei}  stopped
[10:19] {Threei}  shrug
[10:19] {Threei}  one of those days
[10:20] {Threei}  look at the spikes in market
[10:20] {Threei}  out of nowhere, both ways
[10:24] {davd} big bets on either side of dow 12k
[10:30] {dino}   out panl ave .30, +.40
[10:31] {samire} thanx dino
[10:31] {Threei}  nice
[10:33] {dino} thx
[10:36] {jfjf64} unp
[10:36] {jfjf64} .90 break
[10:37] {jfjf64} one of those  days  outta here
[10:40] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break
[10:40] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[10:42] {dino} sina lod
[10:43] {Threei}  stop to .91
[10:44] {Threei}  bidding 1/3 .66
[10:44] {Threei}  out
[10:44] {Threei}  .50 - .52 for another 1/3
[10:45] {Threei}  stop to .86
[10:46] {Threei}  out second part
[10:46] {Threei}  stop to .81
[10:46] {samire} Great Job Vad !!!!!
[10:46] {Threei}  want to cover last piece around .30 - .35
[10:46] {samire} new stop  ?
[10:46] {Threei}  [10:46] {Threei} stop to .81
[10:46] {samire} sorry
[10:46] {Threei}  jf... tell me you haven't actually left
[10:51] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lacker: Rate hike before year end within possibilities, evaluating review of growth outlook
[10:52] {dino}    kro gap fill
[10:54] {Threei}  stop to .65
[10:54] {Threei}  well, .67 actually
[10:57] {Threei}  CAT is on the final descent
[10:57] {Threei}  out
[10:57] {Threei}  +.50
[10:58] {Threei}  wow... even that was too soon
[10:59] {Threei}  but anyway, that erased most of earlier stops
[10:59] {Threei}  not all, but took it to negligible level
[11:00] {dino}  gj
[11:00] {Threei}  ty
[11:00] {nemo} so, at least your broker is happy
[11:00] {Threei}  lol, true
[11:01] {dino} meli sm l .45
[11:01] {dino} sina sm l .50
[11:03] {dino} sina stop -.32
[11:04] {Threei}  ok CAT, now I want my shares back
[11:04] {Threei}  can I have mulligan?
[11:04] {dino} opening gaps are filling
[11:04] {Threei}  goes for a full dllar
[11:05] {Threei}  and to say honestly, I did have a feeling that it was likely to be the case, but after morning rinsing and shaking I needed a sure winner, so secured it
[11:06] {dino} sina rinsed
[11:09] {Threei}  here is the strategy for the next few trades
[11:09] {dino} coin toss?
[11:09] {Threei}  lol, that's always a part
[11:09] {Threei}  together with chicken entrails
[11:09] {Threei}  want to get couple relatively safe scalps, to get back in green,
[11:10] {Threei}  so looking fo safe trades that, if don't work, present only a very small loss
[11:10] {Threei}  after that part is completed, will re-evaluate
[11:11] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break half lot
[11:11] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[11:11] {Threei}  normally this one would be fine for full lot but, as said above...
[11:12] {Threei}  aim to cover half near .50
[11:12] {Threei}  stop to .66
[11:13] {dino} panl sm l .62
[11:13] {Threei}  crap, wanted .52 - .53 for cover, and missed it while typing stop trailing
[11:14] {Threei}  ok, out half
[11:14] {Threei}  stop to .61
[11:14] {Threei}  break .50 and die
06[11:15] * Threei sends FCX envelope with black mark
[11:15] {Threei}  here we go
[11:16] {dino} sina sm l .10
[11:18] {Threei}  stop to .56
[11:19] {Threei}  out
[11:19] {Threei}  flat for the day
[11:19] {Threei}  that was a rough ride, but recovery was nothing short of spectacular
[11:19] {samire} i agree
[11:19] {Threei}  keeping losses tight, letting winners run... classic
[11:19] {samire} good job
[11:19] {Threei}  ty
[11:20] {Threei}  ok, staying with strategy described above,
[11:20] {Threei}  safest trades possible,
[11:20] {Threei}  tight stop and modest sizes,
[11:21] {Threei}  aiming to get more or less meaningful profits but first and foremost keeping losses to a minimum
[11:21] {Threei}  and of course full use of chicken entrails
[11:23] {dino} out sina .90, +.80
[11:26] {Threei}  ok dino
[11:26] {Threei}  fess up
[11:26] {Threei}  darts?
[11:27] {Threei}  tea leaves?
[11:27] {dino} lol
[11:27] {Threei}  8-ball?
[11:27] {nemo} the dog
[11:27] {Threei}  coin?
[11:27] {dino} pulp, thats al
[11:27] {Threei}  dice?
[11:27] {rizvisy1} .
[11:27] {Threei}  can't be chicken entrails, I have dibs on that
[11:28] {nemo} I use the hearts of my enemies
[11:28] {Threei}  must have endless supply then
[11:28] {nemo} that's why it's so great
[11:28] {Threei}  :)
[11:29] {nemo} makes for a quiet neighborhood
[11:29] {davd} spy at vwap
[11:29] {davd} little above
[11:29] {nemo} I think the landscape supply company is curious about all the lime I buy
[11:29] {Threei}  I'd move in your vicinity... but I am not sure you can tell between neighbors when in heart-collectfing frenzy
[11:29] {davd} me too
[11:31] {RonS} took sina 86.38 to 87.20  +.82  thanks dino
[11:32] {patience} .
[11:34] {dino} gj
[11:36] {RonS} meli blood
[11:38] {dino} yeah stopped awhile ago
[11:39] {dino} panl too
[11:39] {RonS} sina, am i glad i got out
[11:40] {dino} sina sm l .70
[11:42] {samire} dino...stop on SINA  ?P
[11:42] {samire} stop loss on sina ...dino ?
[11:43] {Threei}  .30 - .35 would be my guess
[11:43] {Threei}  let's see if I cam read dino's mind
[11:45] {dino} .23
[11:45] {Threei}  nope, I can't
[11:45] {dino} stopped
[11:46] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .05 break, half lot
[11:46] {Threei}  stop above .15
[11:47] {Threei}  same idea that with FCX earlier
[11:47] {Threei}  position size cuts in half even modest 10 cents risk,
[11:47] {Threei}  and aiming to partial out if works
[11:47] {Threei}  to ride the downtrend which seems to be estabilishing
[11:47] {Threei}  1;1
[11:48] {Threei}  half out
[11:48] {Threei}  stop to .11
[11:49] {Threei}  stop to .06
[11:50] {Threei}  decide between covering at 1:2 or trailing stop to .01
[11:50] {Threei}  both are valid options
[11:50] {Threei}  I'll trail personally
[11:50] {Threei}  finally in green for the day
[11:51] {Threei}  so got some buffer to try and squeeze a bit more
[11:51] {dino}  sina smr (300) l .00
[11:51] {dino} open gaps filled
[11:53] {Threei}  look at this
[11:53] {Threei}  (IA) Iranian oil official: Saudi output hike not likely a respond to demand; any added Saudi output would likely go into storage
[11:53] {Threei}  - OPEC would react if Saudi output increase led to oversupply. Could further reduce output.
[11:53] {Threei}  sto to .01 SLW
[11:53] {Threei}  wow dino
[11:53] {samire} what is smr    dino
[11:53] {Threei}  you nailed this one
[11:55] {dino} 300 sh vs sm 400
[11:56] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[11:56] {samire} thanx
[11:56] {Threei}  stop to .96
[11:57] {dino} np
[11:57] {Threei}  trade's firmly in positive territory even if balance is stopped on trail
[11:57] {dino} out sina .50, +.50
[11:58] {samire} Great play on SINA
[11:59] {dino} ty
[11:59] {Threei}  stop to .91
[12:00] {Threei}  1:3
[12:01] {Threei}  stop to .85
[12:02] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Berlusconi concedes referendum votes went against the govt position
[12:02] {Threei}  - Note that earlier in the session, Berlusconi stated that Italy needs to depart from nuclear power generation
[12:02] {Threei}  ***Reminder: A referendum on nuclear power is scheduled in Italy, as Italy's nuclear program was abandoned in 1987 after the Chernobyl incident. Govt claims that nuclear will be important to the country to supply approx 20% of its electricity needs by 2020
[12:03] {Threei}  slw on final descent
[12:03] {Threei}  stop to .81
[12:04] {Threei}  stop to .76
[12:06] {Threei}  CNBC's Kelly: Sources indicate that Facebook IPO may take place in Q1 of 2012, could be worth up to $100B
[12:08] {Threei}  out
[12:08] {Threei}  firmly in green for the day
[12:20] {Threei}  gap is erased
[12:20] {Threei}  (GR) S&P Downgrades rating to CCC from B; outlook Negative
[12:22] {Threei}  anyone's awake?
[12:23] {Threei}  ok, going in coma too
[12:24] {dino}  meli sm l ave .01
[12:25] {dino} stop .73
[12:28] {ese} am not away......
[12:28] {ese} flying blind without proper internet
[12:28] {Threei}  you may have to give up and switch finally...
[12:28] {Threei}  do they give you any reasonable explanation?
[12:29] {ese} ya....a new house is being built up the wondering if that has something to do with the telus guys out there and electrical people
[12:29] {ese} saw
[12:30] {Threei}  is it whole neighborhood or limited to you only?
[12:31] {ese} don't know
[12:31] {dino} i think nemo is involved
[12:32] {ese} that was my thinkibng
[12:35] {dino} kro sm l .00
[12:45] {RonS} dino, if you can you may want to short ors...
[12:46] {RonS} whoa...mibbet reboot...
[12:46] {nemo} FTP
[12:46] {nemo} FTO
[12:49] {RonS} meli magnet?  200 day 73.04
[12:49] {dino} thx ron,
[12:50] {dino} bpt drop
[12:52] {RonS} oil busted 97
[12:53] {Threei}  thuis I am not sad about
[12:55] {Threei}  ok, time to try a bounce?
[12:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break of holding .40
[12:55] {Threei}  if
[12:57] {Threei}  if you are too close to flat for the day, make it half lot
[12:57] {Threei}  pick positon size that doesn't put you in red if stopped
[12:59] {nemo} gonna' test Friday's lows methinks
[12:59] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Finance Ministry responds to S&P downgrade: Remains commited to the fiscal programs in place
[12:59] {Threei}  - Notes that the S&P downgrade overlooks efforts by the IMF and EU to provide financing for the country
[12:59] {Threei}  heh
[13:02] {Threei}  tested, barely held... gonna lose it IMO
[13:02] {nemo} yeah .06 next support
[13:02] {Threei}  here we go
[13:03] {Threei}  SLW invalidated of course
[13:06] {RonS} oil 96.50 and dropping
[13:06] {Threei}  sill not crying
[13:06] {Threei}  even $40 won;t make me sad
[13:08] {Threei}  SLW panic
[13:08] {Threei}  look at all our shorts todday, both working and stopped
[13:09] {Threei}  sometimes it feels like you bette abandon your discipline and just stick to your conviction, holding positions with no stops :)
[13:09] {Threei}  of course as soon as you do that, they go against you without end in sight
[13:32] {davd} spy vwap 127.75 - imo run up to this
[13:37] {patience} .
[13:38] {dino}  f'ing rinses
[13:39] {dino} amrn sm l .25
[13:57] {dino} amap drop
[13:59] {ese} definitely a B flat do nothing day for outta here....cya tomorrow
[13:59] {Threei}  take care ese
[14:00] {dino} cya ese
[14:07] {Threei}  lol, market completed te roundtrip
[14:08] {dino} random dance market
[14:08] {Threei}  pretty much
[14:08] {Threei}  glad to have made that recovery earlier, would be much harder now
[14:09] {dino} yeah, tough day
[14:09] {dino} soda drop
[14:13] {dino} gmlp drop
[14:13] {dino} amap sm l 08
[14:16] {dino} stop amap -.36
[14:20] {dino} ugh, rinsed again
[14:20] {dino} wtf amap
[14:26] {Threei}  (US) Rep Cantor (R-VA): Negotiations over the budget situation have made progress, working on trillions in savings
[14:26] {Threei}  - Negotiators are starting to see convergence on savings goals.
[14:26] {Threei}  - Prefers one vote to increase the debt ceiling, rather than a series of shorter-term hikes in the borrowing limit.
[14:26] {Threei}  feeling better?
[14:28] {_nsj100} not very.  good thing i dont spend/balance like these guys do.
[14:28] {Threei}  lol
[14:36] {dino} look at amap, rinses me and runs a dollar fifty
[14:40] {dino} same w/meli, rinses and runs a dollar
[14:47] {dino} tfm strong all day
[14:52] {dino} jobs drop
[14:59] {Threei} Short Setup: CREE  .75 break half lot
[14:59] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[15:15] {samire} target 1 ?
[15:15] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[15:15] {Threei}  stop to .76
[15:16] {samire} thanx
[15:16] {rizvisy1} thanks 3i
[15:16] {Threei}  no target that I can see, will make it up as we go :)
[15:16] {Threei}  welcome guys
[15:16] {Threei}  amazing how this day seemingly totally hopeless in the morning, turned to be profitable
[15:18] {dino} gj vad
[15:19] {Threei}  ty
[15:19] {dino} sm l jobs .45
[15:25] {dino} stop jobs
[15:25] {dino} calling it a day, can't read it
[15:25] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:26] {dino} thx u2
[15:33] {Threei}  trail to .71
[15:39] {Threei}  1:2 baby
[15:39] {Threei}  decide for yourself, cover or trail
[15:39] {Threei}  I am out
[15:40] {Threei}  if trailing, trail to .61
[15:43] {Threei}  life is full of surprizes... still can't get iver how this dayu turned out, lol
[15:43] {Threei}  1:3
[15:43] {Threei}  profits abundance
[15:44] {Threei}  OK guys, I am done for today
[15:44] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:44] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:44] {_nsj100} thanks muchly gn