Monday, July 25, 2011

Jul 25 2011

Somehow in this boredom we managed to find some adventure... started day nicely with sizable wins (RIMM short, notably), then traded profits away with a few too many small stops, then got most of profits back with couple wins. In my mind, whatever gets us through the summer doldrums with profits is good, no matter how big or small profits are.

Session Time: Mon Jul 25 00:00:00 2011
[08:41] {Threei}  US) Update on debt ceiling negotiations as of Monday morning
[08:41] {Threei}  After a difficult weekend in Washington, the debt ceiling debate now boils down to a short-term plan versus a long-term plan. Senate Majority Leader Reid is offering a long-term approach, including a $2.4T debt ceiling increase good through 2012 matched by $2.7T in spending cuts and no new revenues. House Speaker Boehner is offering a $1.6T debt ceiling increase with cuts determined by a Congressional panel and including some sort of enforcement mechanism. Boehner's plan also demands a Balanced Budget Amendment vote at some point. Boehner's plan would begin with a $900 billion debt ceiling hike right away coupled with $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years
[08:42] {Threei}  - On Saturday evening around 16:30ET, Speaker Boehner was said to have told aides that there has been no deal and that a "Grand Bargain" with President Obama is not possible, although he also said that no one is willing to default. Later in the evening President Obama met with Congressional leaders that he is opposed to a short-term extension, as that could trigger a ratings agency downgrade.
[08:42] {Threei}  - At this point there is disagreement on Wall Street about whether a default would have a negative or positive impact on US Treasuries, due to their safe haven value. Wall Street firms are having difficulty recommending which trades would benefit from a US default. Press reports have suggested that US banks were preparing contingency plans to deal with a potential US debt default.
[09:07] {Threei}  PIMCO's El-Erian: Does not expect a US default
[09:08] {Threei}  no other country can replace the UST's global role in financial markets
[09:08] {Threei}  ***Note that overnight El-Erian wrote that he believes that the US is at risk of a downgrade
[09:14] {ese} morning
[09:14] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:24] {larisa} gm :)
[09:24] {ese} interesting political system dn there in the US.......seems extremely difficult to come up with a compromise
[09:24] {ese} laris
[09:24] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:24] {larisa} ese, vad :)
[09:27] {Threei}  when the issue is so divisive, ese...
[09:27] {Threei}  polarizing even
[09:27] {ese} i think the ratings agency's are gong to dn grade them
[09:28] {Threei}  looks increasingly likely
[09:28] {ese} no matter what they do
[09:29] {Threei}  at this point it has become an issue of the short-term plan versus a long-term plan
[09:29] {Threei}  wich is essentially an issue of election positioning
[09:30] {Threei}  wow, folks are asleep still
[09:30] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:30] {Threei}  jf :)
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .10 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if holding 40
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:33] {Threei}  both 1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX 1:2 but was next to impossible to get in
[09:33] {nemo} yeah
[09:34] {Threei}  1:3 even
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW second chance
[09:34] {Threei}  worth trying
[09:34] {Threei}  same setup
[09:34] {Threei}  same stop
[09:34] {Threei}  .10 break from here
[09:35] {Threei}  if holding 40
[09:35] {patience} good morning
[09:35] {Threei}  not a scalp this time
[09:35] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:36] {nemo} look for test of morning low
[09:37] {Threei}  no go
[09:37] {nemo} bounce below .80 then recross?
[09:37] {Threei}  very likelyu
[09:38] {nemo} was afraid of that
[09:38] {nemo} .80 was the bottom
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .60 break
[09:40] {nemo} .68 pivot
[09:40] {Threei}  stop above .65
[09:40] {Threei}  half out
[09:41] {jfjf64} oh  yeah
[09:41] {Threei}  scalpers get out here
[09:41] {Threei}  beautiful
[09:41] {Threei}  day traders feel free to cover
[09:41] {nemo} slw
[09:41] {Threei}  +.30
[09:41] {Threei}  for 5 cents risk
[09:41] {RonS} got rimm .57 to .38  thanks 3i
[09:41] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .90 break
[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:45] {Threei}  justr practicing posting in pretty colors
[09:46] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:46] {nemo} that confused me
[09:46] {nemo} which is it
[09:46] {Threei}  what did?
[09:46] {Threei}  two sided setup?
[09:46] {nemo} ahhh
[09:47] {Threei}  let's trail to .84
[09:48] {Threei}  very close to 1;1, hard to exit but reasonable to tighten stop
[09:49] {nemo} just increased margin on treasury trading, should push the equities higher
[09:53] {Threei}  out
[09:53] {Threei}  oversat this one a bit
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .20 break
[10:00] {Threei}  let's see if this one rewards us with wnother good trade
[10:02] {Threei}  SLW jujst can't find firm footing
[10:04] {Threei}  ok RIMM, be a good boy and make our day
[10:05] {Threei}  two variations to the play
[10:05] {Threei}  one is the same as last time, .14 stop
[10:05] {Threei}  another is a bit more loose, .09 stop
[10:07] {Threei}  Obama: Strongly Approve: 23%.. Strongly Disapprove 44%... Approval Index: -21
[10:07] {nemo} slw
[10:07] {Threei}  consolidating at the low for breakdown
[10:07] {Threei}  Obama, not SLW
[10:07] {Threei}  well, bioth actually
[10:07] {Threei}  57% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law.
[10:08] {Threei}  stop to .14 for everyone
[10:08] {Threei}  no need to rsik more at this point
[10:08] {Threei}  long upward tail
[10:08] {Threei}  out of bounds print but chart reflects it and will signal danger to chartists
[10:10] {nemo} missed .61 slw
[10:10] {Threei}  yeah, was a good setup
[10:24] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .60 break half lot
[10:25] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:29] {Threei}  valida again
[10:29] {nemo} little late
[10:29] {Threei}  not late, simply broek too fast
[10:30] {Threei}  ok, in
[10:30] {nemo} ahhh...kinda when you've got a line of people and ask for a volunteer, and everybody except one guy steps back
[10:31] {Threei}  .75 stop for now
[10:32] {ese} L HOLI .65
[10:32] {ese} 1/2
[10:33] {Threei}  out
[10:34] {RonS} Hollysys Was Control Systems Provider in Fatal High-Speed Train Crash
[10:34] {Threei}  (US) Moody's comments on US bank exposure to municipal bonds market, exposure is manageable
[10:41] {Threei}  life is getting better by minute:
[10:41] {Threei}
[10:41] {ese} whoop de do da....
[10:42] {patience} in (quadra fnx mining)
[10:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .45 break
[10:46] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[10:47] {Threei}  target .75, 3 partials
[10:48] {ese} ever have one of those morning where you look at your trades and go......"WTF did I do?"
[10:48] {nemo} yes, as I'm reaching for the vaseline
[10:48] {ese} well i'm now apparently long HOLI .58 1k worth
[10:49] {Threei}  nope, but I had mornings where I look in the mirror and go "WTF did I do yesterday??"
[10:52] {ese} I know that I had the other 1/2 cued up but dont' remember pulling the trigger
[10:52] {Threei}  no go SLW
[10:52] {ese} my chabces of making money here now are slim to none
[10:52] {ese} chances
[10:53] {Threei}  hmmm... day started so well, why didn't I go back to sleep after opening wins
[10:53] {ese} hmmmmmmmm
[10:54] {ese} am now starting to think that myself
[10:54] {ese} who said that getting up at 5 and biking 20k is refreshing for your mind?
[10:54] {ese} need to shoot them right now
[10:55] {Threei}  weird idea if you ask me {G}
[10:55] {jfjf64} funny
[10:56] {Threei}  this does refresh your mind:
[10:56] {Threei}
[10:57] {ese} ahhh i recognize the  Sidney warf in the second one
[11:08] {jfjf64} wfm
[11:08] {jfjf64} c/h
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .45 break
[11:19] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[11:24] {Threei}  .50 break should catapult it
[11:26] {Threei}  let's tighten stop to .39
[11:27] {Threei}  out
[11:34] {Threei}  (US) Senate Democrats to caucus at 18:00ET on deficit plan
[11:34] {Threei}  market certainly acts like "can't believe they could be so stupid to let default happen"
[11:43] {Threei}  you all went to sleep?
[11:43] {Threei}  or anyone is still breathing?
[11:44] {RonS} ...busy searching here...
[11:44] {RonS} slim pickens...
[11:44] {Threei}  searching? meaning of life?
[11:45] {Threei}  I am looking at SPY/TZA...
[11:45] {Threei}  trying to determine whether it's time to start trying for breakdown
[11:45] {Threei}  also, RIMM
[11:46] {Threei}  .80 break
[11:46] {Threei}  worth trying IMO
[11:51] {Threei}  TZA worked off .80
[11:53] {ese} du du du du du........
[11:53] {ese} HOLI's mainlined on me
[11:56] {Threei}  RIMM 1;1
[12:00] {Threei}  10% workforce cut, RIMM
[12:00] {Threei}  feels like slow trainwreck
[12:00] {jfjf64} die  rimm
[12:02] {Threei}  1:2
[12:07] {Threei}  (US) White House Press Secretary Carney reiterates Republicans walked away from a fair deal and are placing the economy at risk
[12:08] {Threei}  (US) Republicans in the House are planning a vote on their debt ceiling legislation on Wednesday
[12:21] {Threei}  you covered RIMM, jf?
[12:22] {jfjf64} yup
[12:22] {jfjf64} you
[12:23] {Threei}  covered half and 1/4 at targets, then get stopped on last 1/4 at the trail
[12:25] {Threei}  hard to believe this is for real... but read the reviews
[12:25] {Threei}
[12:25] {jfjf64} spy
[12:25] {jfjf64} vol
[12:25] {Threei}  if you thought people were stupid, this should give the new meaning to the word
[12:25] {Threei}  and new depth to the concept
[12:28] {jfjf64} crazy world
[12:29] {Threei}  I really want to think at least part of those is a joke
[12:36] {jfjf64} cat
[12:36] {jfjf64} 106
[12:37] {ese} still L holi
[12:38] {ese} don't know about everyone else but my screens are barely turning up anything
[12:38] {Threei}  well, we are in traditional summer afternoon stall
[12:39] {jfjf64} brick  wall
[12:39] {ese} very true
[12:39] {ese} you get out to your crabing dock at all this summer vad
[12:39] {Threei}  of course
[12:39] {jfjf64} lov crabs
[12:39] {Threei}  in fact, planning another expedition this very evening
[12:39] {ese} and...........
[12:40] {Threei}  both crabs and prawns
[12:40] {ese} indeed....garlic butter prawns......
[12:40] {jfjf64} crab  with light 3i
[12:40] {Threei}  too deep for that :)
[12:41] {Threei}  usual bait works
[12:41] {jfjf64} do you crab  at  night
[12:42] {Threei}  any time... it's more about tide than time of the day
[12:44] {jfjf64} out of  here   see all tommorrow
[12:45] {ese} cya jf
[12:55] {Threei}  take care jf
[13:08] {_Mas12} hello
[13:10] {Threei}  hi mas
[13:10] {_Mas12} good and thanks
[13:11] {Threei}  a bit late, we are al,ready firmly asleep
[13:11] {Threei}  action was all concetrated in the morning
[13:11] {_Mas12} sorry got off work late today
[13:11] {Threei}  oh well
[13:12] {_Mas12} from tomorrow I have work in evenings, so could be here during day...
[13:12] {Threei}  cool
[13:13] {_Mas12} how was action in morning for you guys
[13:13] {Threei}  morning was very good.. then lost plot a bit
[13:14] {_Mas12} so it is even type situation...
[13:14] {Threei}  slightly in the positive
[13:14] {_Mas12} good, I read through the trading instructions, pretty easy
[13:16] {_Mas12} can I ask questions if any arise through
[13:16] {Threei}  sure
[13:16] {_Mas12} thanks
[13:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[13:24] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[13:43] {RonS} ...last 20 minutes have run 25% of normal volume for this time of day...
[13:44] {Threei}  1:1
[13:45] {Threei}  decision to scalp or partial is yours
[13:54] {ese} vads previous statement...a re-wording.  "the morning was all concentrated in the morning"....I like that better
[13:54] {Threei}  lol
[13:54] {Threei}  I like it
[13:54] {ese} i figured you would
[14:34] {Threei}  (US) Senate Minority Leader McConnell: Obama is responsible for derailing the talks this weekend, there is no economic justification for raising the debt ceiling through 2013
[14:40] {Threei}  Senator Reid: Negotiations this weekend went backwards instead of forward
[14:53] {nemo}!/FuturesTrader71/status/95562868002529280
[14:54] {Threei}  not sure I underatand
[14:54] {Threei}  how will they pay?
[14:55] {nemo} me neither...having said that watch tna off spy around here
[15:11] {Threei}  wow TZA
[15:14] {Threei}  - Says there is no alternative to the Senate plan other than default as it meets the bottom line criteria of both parties; if Republicans reject the deal, it means they 'want a default for whatever reason'
[15:14] {Threei}  - Reiterates the Republican's short term agreement is a non starter, do not want to have the same debate again next year.
[15:14] {Threei}  - Expects Pres Obama will endorse the Senate plan.
[15:14] {Threei}  - To introduce the bill in the Senate sometime tonight.
[15:14] {Threei}  - Follow up 15:05ET: White House confirms support for Reid's plan, feels it should get support.
[15:15] {Threei}  so, the whole game now is about who to blame
[15:53] {Threei}  ok guys, not much but still profits for the day
[15:53] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you all tomorrow
[15:53] {larisa} bye :)
[15:54] {_Mas12} bye
[16:06] {ese} .
[16:07] {ese} nah......i was still here.....fell asleep....still long HOLI