Friday, July 29, 2011

Jul 29 2011

Nice day with three early wins of decent size. One of them made Catch of the Day:

This is very clean example of my favorite way to nail the reversal when I suspect a bounce is about to get exhausted - break of the low of the Doji formed after the bounce. There was also interesting collision at the last minutes of the day where I lost a bet of beer vs carrot juice...

Now, since it was very early in the day and relatively inactive market allows for some free time, I have posted this play earlier on our newly minted Facebook site, and even tweeted about that (why do I hate this word so much...) So, if you want to catch this kind of posts as they come, please use the buttons on our homepage  to "follow" us on Twitter and "like" us on Facebook. Did I miss any of the modern terms? Ah, but of course - use "Send" button to let others know... Oh, and there is a Google's +1 button - not exactly sure what that does but feel free to click it and find out. There. No more social media stuff for the next two days! 

Session Time: Fri Jul 29 00:00:01 2011
[08:43] {Threei}  *(US) Q2 ADVANCED GDP Q/Q ANNUALIZED: 1.3% V 1.8%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 0.1% V 0.8%E- Prior GDP (Q1) Q/Q Annualized QoQ revised lower from 1.9% to 0.4%. - Prior Personal Consumption revised from lower from 2.2% to 2.1%
[08:44] {nemo} yeah, tza shot up a buck on the news
[08:44] {Threei}  *(US) Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: 0.7% V 0.5%E
[08:44] {Threei}  this too
[08:44] {Threei}  but didn't take mu cheffect
[08:44] {nemo} no GDP Chicago pmi coming up
[08:44] {nemo} Frickin' rabbit...
[08:45] {nemo} I just put my computer in sleep mode at night
[08:45] {nemo} all you have to do is touch a key to start it up again...
[08:45] {nemo} Rabbit must be climbing around on the desk while I'm sleeping
[08:46] {nemo} 128.40 or so is 200ma on spy, watch that area
[09:17] {larisa} gm :)
[09:19] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:20] {larisa} vad :)
[09:24] {Threei}  RIMM new 52 week lows
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .20 break
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:33] {Threei}  stop above .90, target 1:4
[09:34] {Threei}  RIMMS reestablished
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:34] {Threei}  1:2
[09:35] {Threei}  1:3
[09:35] {nemo} nice one
[09:35] {Threei}  stop .61 for the last part
[09:35] {Threei}  target hit
[09:36] {Threei}  out .40
[09:37] {Threei}  1:6 lol
[09:38] {pragmatic} it's like a money pot
[09:38] {Threei}  isn't it
[09:41] {larisa} did you take into consideration 6-7 cents spread and jumpiness ? how to manage risk with this one, half lot ?
[09:42] {Threei}  more or less normal thing for listeds on first minutes, corrects itself in a min or two
[09:43] {pragmatic} I noticed a spread too. I used LImit sell at .80 and waited, as the stock jumped to .76 first. Once you sold at ask, spread does not matter
[09:43] {Threei}  can be a friend, can be a foe
[09:43] {Threei}  in SLW short case, it's a friend with good enough odds
06[09:45] * pragmatic RIMM .20 was a good call
[09:46] {Threei}  so obvious a play, I am sure you managed it without my guidance
[09:46] {patience} good morning
[09:46] {pragmatic} morning to you too
[09:48] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:48] {ese} morning
[09:48] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:48] {Threei}  man... missed two big wins
[09:49] {ese} i'm hungover
[09:50] {ese} had guests who teach in Saudi Arabia visiting yesterday....not alot of alchohol there
[09:51] {Threei}  while maret activity allows, experimenting with facebook:
[09:51] {Threei}
06[09:58] * pragmatic As I understand, the trading day is over ?!
[09:58] {Threei}  do you mind? people are trying to sleep here
[09:58] {pragmatic} :)
[09:58] {Threei}  no, not over
[10:12] {Threei}  (US) House Majority leader Cantor (R-VA): Still a few votes short of passing the Boehner plan in the House- Reminder: Senators claim the Boehner bill cannot pass the Senate
[10:23] {nemo} this is the beginning of a rally
[10:23] {nemo} there will be some kind of decision over the weekend and Monday will be a rocket ride
[10:23] {Threei}  my feeling is though, rally will ve very short-lived
[10:30] {Threei}  Prez on TV soon
[10:31] {Threei}  (US) Republican Aides: Republicans are prepared to give in on the their demands for a second round of votes on debt limit before election, in return for concessions for Democrats to guarantee next round of cuts - CNBC
[10:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .95 break
[10:41] {Threei}  stop under .85
[10:50] {Threei}  (US) World Bank Chief Zoellick: Current preparing contingency plans in the event the US defaults, a default would cause a financial calamity
[10:51] {Threei}  (US) Fed confirms it is preparing guidance for banks in the event that the Aug 2 debt ceiling deadline is missed - press
[10:52] {Threei}  trailing to .89
[10:52] {Threei}  1:1
[11:01] {Threei}  snyone is trading?
[11:10] {Threei}  ok... see you Sept 6
[11:20] {larisa} why Sept 6 ?
[11:20] {Threei}  after Labor day?
[11:20] {larisa} oh :)
[11:20] {Threei}  when people are supposedly back from vacation
[11:20] {Threei}  trading picks up
[11:20] {Threei}  and someone starts answering me
[11:25] {ese} sorry vad.......i'm in bad shape today
[11:25] {ese} don't mean to ignore you
[11:25] {Threei}  today?
[11:25] {Threei}  you are lucky one
[11:25] {pragmatic} RIMM -.15 or +.20 ?Any setup here ?
[11:26] {Threei}  ah well... no one means it, evceryone does it
[11:26] {Threei}  I don't understand
[11:26] {Threei}  -.15 or +.20?
[11:26] {ese} i'm watching a couple of things but its like watching paint dry
[11:26] {larisa} short .15 break, long .20 break :)
[11:26] {Threei}  that's august for you
[11:27] {pragmatic} yes
[11:27] {Threei}  shrug
[11:27] {Threei}  if you want to speak language no one else speaks, be ready to accept that no one answers :)
[11:27] {ese} i recommend drinking like I did last night then everyone has an excuse at least
[11:27] {Threei}  -.15 in traderspeak means 15 cents loss... +.20 means 20 cents profits
[11:27] {pragmatic} well, + or -  what could be simpler ?
[11:28] {Threei}  see above
[11:28] {Threei}  simpler is what everyone else uses
[11:28] {Threei}  instead of applying your own meaning and expecting everyone else to decode it
[11:28] {Threei}  what you said to me means:
[11:29] {Threei}  did we lose 15 cents or profited 20 cents on RIMM?
[11:30] {Threei}  see my point?
[12:06] {Threei}  (US) Boehner said to have called off the House vote due to possibility of defeat - financial press- NOTE: Unclear if this is a summary or fresh development; Cantor claimed to have the votes to pass new iteration of the legislation
06[12:10] * pragmatic coffee time
[12:13] {pragmatic} wasn't it a setup for RIMM to Short at .25 ?
[12:14] {Threei}  more or less... chart is right, time of the day and character of action is not
[12:16] {pragmatic} what are the hot zones ?
[12:16] {pragmatic} first 2 hours in the morning ?
[12:17] {Threei}  and last hour
[12:17] {Threei}  it's less pronounced during more active seasons, very pornounced in the summer
[12:18] {pragmatic} btw, is Monday a trading day ?
[12:18] {Threei}  yes
[12:18] {Threei}  I htink
[12:19] {pragmatic} aha. Great chance to trade the whole day
[12:20] {pragmatic} is X forming a setup to break .10 ?
[12:20] {ese}'s not a holiday dn south.....forgot about that
[12:20] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Democrats will not accept short term debt ceiling increase, House bill is right wing leaning, they have placed new items in the legislation- Reiterates his bill is a true compromise, achieves major points Republicans were seeking; Democratic caucus fully supports opposition to such a short term deal - Claims republicans have come to him, thanking him for the legislation
[12:21] {Threei}  same comment as rimm
[12:21] {pragmatic} ok
[12:22] {ese} I guess you'll be maning the fort here vad......I have a show for BC Day at St Anns Academy monday.....
[12:22] {ese} 11:00am
[12:22] {pragmatic} are you local ese ?
[12:23] {pragmatic} in Victoria ?
[12:23] {Threei}  nice place ese
[12:23] {Threei}  neat grounds
[12:23] {ese} very
[12:23] {Threei}  he is one of those you missed a chance to meet at shihskebab
[12:23] {ese} chapel inside is historic
[12:24] {ese} yes in victoria
[12:24] {ese} where are you
[12:24] {pragmatic} same, next to UVIC
[12:25] {ese} fancy that........i live accros the street from you
[12:25] {ese} just kiddking
[12:25] {ese} kidding
[12:26] {ese} not far though........i live just off of willows beach
[12:27] {Threei}  and takes a swim every morning
[12:27] {pragmatic} 7 mins drive
[12:27] {Threei}  when polar bears are not around
[12:27] {pragmatic} :):)
06[12:28] * pragmatic choked from laughing
[12:28] {ese} ya but theres seals
[12:29] {Threei}  well, seals are busy fleeing orcas
[12:29] {Threei}  and orcas are not of much danger to you since there are many seals to eat
[12:29] {Threei}  so it comes down to you and polar bears
[13:04] {Threei} Short Setup: X  40 break
[13:10] {Threei}  nah
[13:38] {ese} invalid
[15:21] {ese} cya next week
[15:21] {Threei}  take care ese
[15:38] {Threei}  so, does market get scared or hopeful for the weekend?
[15:41] {larisa} scared of course/ beer ?
[15:43] {Threei}  hmm?
[15:44] {larisa} I thougt you want a bet ?
[15:44] {Threei}  oh
[15:44] {Threei}  misread your line
[15:44] {Threei}  sure
[15:44] {Threei}  beer
[15:44] {Threei}  not scared
[15:44] {Threei}  goes up from here
[15:45] {larisa} but I do not want a beer
[15:45] {Threei}  not going green of course but still
[15:45] {Threei}  so you can request a substitute drink of equal value
[15:45] {larisa} carrot juice
[15:45] {Threei}  deal
[15:46] {Threei}  Dow is -89
[15:46] {Threei}  ends at 75 - 80, my bet
[15:47] {larisa} -130 or worse :)
[15:47] {larisa} in between - I win too
[15:50] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:50] {Threei}  why
[15:53] {larisa} -80 is not hopeful also. So basically you've already lost
[15:54] {Threei}  hmmm?
[15:54] {Threei}  we just strted moving up
[15:54] {Threei}  and got 6 minutes
[15:55] {Threei}  how about that
[15:55] {Threei}  -75
[15:55] {Threei}  ring the bell!
[15:55] {larisa} 5 more min
[15:56] {Threei}  i need bell now!
[15:56] {Threei}  71
[15:56] {Threei}  66
[15:56] {Threei}  beer!
[15:56] {larisa} figu vam
[15:57] {Threei}  why?? i hionestly won the bet
[15:57] {Threei}  or will in 3 min
[15:57] {Threei}  bell bell bell
[15:58] {nemo} vwap .50
[15:58] {nemo} on spy
[15:59] {Threei}  1 min
[15:59] {Threei}  grrr
[15:59] {Threei}  come on
[15:59] {Threei}  crap
[15:59] {Threei}  lol
[16:00] {Threei}  can't belive this
[16:00] {Threei}  carrot juice... no beer... :(
[16:00] {Threei}  have a great weekend guys
[16:00] {Threei}  see you on monday
[16:00] {larisa} bye :)