Friday, August 19, 2011

Aug 19 2011

Profitable but boring day. Let me treat you to a little video - quick look at the current moment in the markets.

Session Time: Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 2011
[08:55] {Threei}  I have to face the reality: it's time to wake up
[08:55] {RonS} gm...quote from Trichet?
[08:56] {Threei}  lol
[08:56] {Threei}  no, they are way behind me
[08:57] {Threei}  last thing I saw yesterday on news wire wqere Europian CDS
[08:57] {Threei}  sheesh, they all go up and up
[08:59] {Threei}  here is morning uodate:
[08:59] {Threei}  (EU) European 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) wider in mid-European morningPeripheral - Spain 5-year Credit Default Swap at approx 370bps, wider by almost 10bps - Portugal 5-year Credit Default Swap at approx 885bps, wider by almost 10bps - Italy 5-year Credit Default Swap at at approx 365bps, wider by almost 15bps Core Europe - France 5-year Credit Default Swap at at approx 155bps, wider by over 5bps - Germany 5-year Credit Default Swap at at approx 81bps, wider by 1 basis point
[08:59] {Threei}  (GE) Germany's Economic Minister Roesler said that his party (FDP) will not support a financial transactions tax if it only affects the euro zone and not the 27-country EU - German Press**Note: Earlier during the week, Germany's Chancellor Merkel reached an agreement with France's President Sarkozy regarding a EU financial transactions tax.
[09:02] {Threei}  lol, read this:
[09:02] {Threei}  EU Commissioner Rehn: Establishing euro bonds would enforce fiscal discipline in the euro zone
[09:02] {Threei}  - Follow Up 8:00 ET: Portugal President questions French-German fiscal discipline proposal
[09:02] {Threei}  ***Note that German political figures and most ECB members have repeatedly warned that euro bonds would undermine fiscal discipline in the euro zone.
[09:05] {RonS} heh, did you see where the french had to lift the short ban so people could roll their futures protection...the solution is exacerbating the problem...
[09:06] {Threei}  yes, lol
[09:06] {Threei}  idiots not understanding the mechanism make decisions...
[09:10] {RonS} the meantime people are voting w/ their feet...the third young adult in te past six months from our little cul de sac is moving overseas for work...
[09:10] {Threei}  overseas as in Canada?
[09:10] {RonS} china, okinawa, japan
[09:10] {Threei}  :)
[09:11] {Threei}  still laughing remembering idiot salesperson in NY... asked him whether they ship to Canada, he said sorry, no shipping overseas
[09:11] {RonS} well there is the st lawrence
[09:12] {Threei}  true
[09:14] {dino} gm all
[09:14] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {RonS} wow, hpq smacked...
[09:18] {Threei}  yeah
[09:18] {Threei}  their tablet is in troubles
[09:19] {Threei}  ASUS eats their lunch
[09:19] {Threei}  interestingly RIMM is gapping up
[09:19] {RonS} jeffries called bottom...
[09:20] {Threei}  but they assigned 25 target, lol
[09:20] {Threei}  do these people have quotes?
[09:21] {RonS} thanks, did not see that...
[09:21] {Threei}  RIMM Jefferies Raised RIMM to Hold from Underperform, price target: $25
[09:23] {RonS} so, if gs breaks $110 is it going for a $100 test?
[09:24] {Threei}  who knows
[09:24] {Threei}  highly liquid situation
[09:24] {larisa} gm :)
[09:24] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:25] {larisa} vad :)
[09:28] {Threei}  LVS
[09:28] {Threei}  keeping an eye for possible short
[09:29] {Threei}  spread...
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  hmm
[09:31] {Threei}  lol
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:31] {Threei}  (in case you wondered)
[09:33] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:33] {nemo} we're down so much overnight, bounced off premarket lows in iwm and damn close in spy
[09:33] {Threei}  this is the only news I see
[09:33] {Threei}  (GR) Greece objects to earlier press reports that 2011 Greek GDP would contract 5.2%, denies that budget deficit will reach 8.0-8.5% - US financial press ***Note that earlier in the session, the Greek fin min said that 2011 GDP would contract by over 4.5%
[09:33] {nemo} think it's technical bounce
[09:34] {Threei}  a bit too sharp
[09:34] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Dudley: Have seen nothing to be worried about in European banks in recent Fed observations; financial insitutions in a better position now than a few years ago
[09:35] {dino} lol, just like no stock bubble in 2000 or housing bubble in 07
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[09:37] {nemo} with price of silver today, oy
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei}  you mean, SLW won't pull back today?
[09:38] {nemo} of course not, but the miner related stocks can't stay down against the underlying forever
[09:38] {nemo} gold up $200 over the last couple of weeks and the gdx barely budged
[09:39] {Threei}  crap, missed .50 break call
[09:40] {dino} gpor sm l .50
[09:42] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .95 break
[09:43] {Threei}  stop above 27.05
[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:46] {Threei}  1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:47] {dino} out gpor ave .89, +.39
[09:47] {dino} back in 30
[09:48] {Threei}  EIMM continues
[09:48] {Threei}  RIMM
[09:51] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[09:52] {Threei}  stop above .40
[09:54] {Threei}  1:1
[10:01] {RonS} uh oh...:
[10:07] {Threei}  strange market this morning
[10:08] {Threei}  funny spot about camel herder in that article, Ron
[10:08] {nemo} futures pits are wild
[10:08] {nemo} cash coming back in now
[10:13] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[10:15] {Threei}  US Dollar vs Japanese Yen *USD HITS FRESH ALL-TIME LOWS IN PAIR BELOW 76.27
[10:15] {Threei}  no go
[10:17] {nemo} spy going to 115.80 most likely
[10:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  44 break
[10:28] {Threei}  1:1
[10:28] {Threei}  a bit nervous trade but works
[10:29] {nemo} spy hit target
[10:29] {Threei}  good forecats
[10:29] {nemo} weekly pivot
[10:29] {Threei}  with 3:4, I have to admit I don't have a good feel for today's market
[10:29] {dino} .
[10:30] {Threei}  what's your point dino?
[10:30] {dino} i'm back
[10:30] {Threei}  ok... it's valid point
[10:31] {Threei}  1:2, I am out
[10:31] {dino} gj
[10:31] {Threei}  maybe it deserves more but as I said, no good feel
[10:32] {dino} rumors emergency fed mtg this weekend, realmoney/kass
[10:32] {nemo} all they can do is agree to print more money
[10:33] {dino} i think thats what they will do for the euro, inflate it away
[10:42] {Threei}
[10:46] {nemo} bohica moment coming
[10:46] {dino} ?
[10:47] {nemo} dcc dino
[10:48] {dino} lol
[10:48] {dino} fubar market
[10:48] {nemo} snafu
[10:56] {dino} csh sm l .50
[11:07] {nemo} tna long here
[11:07] {nemo} out under .30
[11:11] {nemo} bummer
[11:15] {dino}  csh stop
[11:18] {dino} ppo sm l .75
[11:31] {dino} csh rinse
[11:54] {RonS} caught csh .30 to .60 thanks for the idea dino...
[11:59] {dino}  gj ron
[11:59] {dino} hitting .90s
[12:00] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Stark: ECB is intervening in markets because they are not functioning correctly, it is not the bank's job to lower rates to aid debt or finance govt deficits - Austrian press
[12:00] {Threei}  - Bond spreads are overshooting by extreme amounts, banks using PSI have a full guarantee of zero losses.
[12:01] {Threei}  - It is irresponsible to refer to the ECB as a bad bank
[12:01] {Threei}  - Insists that the ECB bond buying program (SMP) does not create inflation risks.
[12:01] {Threei}  - Retorts that the ECB has not taken on risks as great as some other central banks.
[12:01] {Threei}  **Note: Stark was one of the 4 ECB governing council members who voted against the recent plan to reactivate the SMP, along with Bundesbank's Weidmann.
[12:01] {dino} where is ese, he always says they don't interefere
[12:01] {Threei}  well, as irony would have it, he is in Europe
[12:02] {dino} lol
[12:02] {RonS} in denmark interfering with their peace and quiet...
[12:02] {Threei}  for 10 days more :)
[12:24] {dino}  out ppo .18, +.43
[12:24] {Threei}  nice
[12:25] {dino} ty
[12:27] {Threei}  (FR) France PM Fillon: A joint euro bond process would raise interest rates for France debt and consequently create risk for credit rating
[12:58] {Threei}
[13:04] {RonS} your first two points were almost word for word from John Bollinger on Fast Money last night...fwiw...nice presentation btw
[13:04] {Threei}  seriously?
[13:04] {RonS} yep
[13:04] {Threei}  cool beans
[13:05] {Threei}  but he of course failed to mention third one, right? {GGG}
[13:06] {RonS} well...actually it was covered by other partcipants and bollinger parsed those points w/ the possibilty that there could be another lower band pierce
[13:07] {Threei}  OK... do I have ti swear now that I haven't seen that? :)
[13:07] {RonS} i for one here do not believe you watch fetv...
[13:08] {Threei}  ummm... what's fetv, LOL
[13:08] {Threei}  I can decipher financial and tv
[13:08] {Threei}  e?
[13:08] {RonS} financial entertainment tv
[13:08] {Threei}  oh
[13:09] {Threei}  CNBC, or something else is included in that?
[13:10] {RonS} ...before i go to bed i watch bloomberg tv for 5 min to get a flavor for asia and eur futes...the broads there are gorgeous and spew absolute bs such that i want to choke them
[13:12] {Threei}  rofl
[13:14] {dino}    lol
[13:15] {Threei}  larisa... I think my accent imporved from yesterday
[13:15] {larisa} greatly :)
[13:15] {Threei}  ty
[13:15] {Threei}  lol
[13:16] {larisa} i did not watch it yet though :)
[13:16] {Threei}  sigh
[13:16] {Threei}  you risk your 4th keyboard
[13:16] {RonS} man, that is funny larisa...
[13:17] {larisa} :)
[13:17] {nemo} yeah, Russian Lerch
[13:17] {Threei}  lerch?
[13:18] {nemo} Ted Cassidy
[13:18] {nemo} lurch actually
[13:18] {RonS} a dude on the Addams Family '60's tv show
[13:18] {nemo}
[13:18] {nemo} you have a deep voice like his
[13:18] {larisa} yup, looks exactly like me :)
[13:19] {larisa} oh, you are saying Vad sounds like him :)
[13:19] {Threei}  just sound... I am nowhere that handsome
[13:20] {RonS}
[13:20] {Threei}  well, dancing - yes, a lot in common
[13:21] {Threei}  if I danced it would be very close
[13:21] {Threei}  got any with him speaking?
[13:21] {dino} idcc sm l ave .27
[13:22] {RonS} all he ever did was moan in a very deep voice
[13:22] {Threei}  oh, like me then
[13:22] {Threei}  lol,
[13:22] {Threei}  got the idea
[13:22] {nemo} "You Rang"
[13:23] {RonS}
[13:24] {nemo} He did play piano
[13:24] {RonS} had never seen this
[13:25] {Threei}  hey, he plays piano like me too!
[13:27] {nemo} tna bounced here before with syp
[13:28] {nemo} spy
[13:28] {nemo} ysp
[13:28] {nemo} yps
[13:28] {nemo} yep
[13:29] {nemo} is that a pennant forming on spy?
[13:30] {nemo} it might be rabbit, it might
[13:35] {Threei}  (VZ) S&P lowers Venezeual rating to B+ from BB-; outlook Stable
[13:35] {nemo} is that based on a psych evaluation of Chavez?
[13:35] {Threei}  lol
[13:36] {Threei}  probably not, "stable" kind of excludes that
[13:36] {RonS} did he beat cancer?
[13:37] {RonS} ppo sm l .80
[13:41] {dino}  nationalized miners
[13:41] {RonS} made them cuban?
[13:42] {dino} chavez
[13:42] {RonS} jus kidding...
[13:45] {RonS} out ppo -.30
[13:53] {dino} sgen
[13:55] {RonS} FDA approves Adcetris
[13:55] {RonS} Label allows use in pts who have not received ASCT as long as they have prior chemo. This is unexpected after the ODAC comments.
[14:02] {dino} ppo sm l .60
[14:03] {Threei}  55% Say Their Home Worth More Than What They Owe
[14:05] {dino} i hope so considering lots of people have been in their homes 20+ years
[14:07] {dino} app lod
[14:10] {RonS} caught sgen .58 to .90  thanks dino
[14:19] {dino} ppo stop -.30
[14:22] {dino} broke yesterday lows
[14:22] {Threei}  Interactive Brokers sends notice warning of possible increase in Gold margins soon
[14:24] {dino} gaps 10716, 1120
[14:24] {nemo} s2 on spy 113
[14:27] {nemo} pre market low in spy was 112.67
[14:42] {dino} csh sm l .99
[14:43] {dino} ppo sm l .90
[14:58] {dino} tzoo sm l .10
[15:10] {dino} stop csh ppo
[15:12] {dino} tzoo too
[15:17] {Threei}  look at today's bar foreming, at the volume, and return to that video I uploaded today,
[15:18] {Threei}  see how if we end in red and volume increases to about yesterday, double bottom scebnario becomes less and less likely?
[15:18] {nemo} we'll probably get some short covering now
[15:24] {dino} good call nemo
[15:24] {dino} tzoo rinsed
[15:24] {nemo} spy bounced right at weekly S1 support
[15:25] {nemo} take a look,
[15:25] {nemo} and the high for today, touched weekly pivot
[15:30] {nemo} be funny if spy goes for vwap
[15:31] {nemo} Dino, see how semesterly S3 played a role last couple of days, and there's no price action around that level
[15:35] {Threei}  (US) Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen: Equity markets are pricing in several years of no earnings growth; This does not appear a likely scenario
[15:35] {Threei}  - CNBC- Notes companies' strong corporate balance sheets with sufficient cash to add to workforce.
[15:35] {Threei}  - This is not 2008; Banks are well capitalized. Tier 1 ratios are above 10%.
[15:35] {dino} yes
[15:36] {dino} feels like 1120 gap fill coming
[15:44] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .60 break
[15:44] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[15:45] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break
[15:45] {Threei}  loss of .50 should kill it
[15:46] {nemo} short covering
[15:47] {nemo} people afraid of weekend intervention
[15:57] {Threei}  well, they are afraid of being long just as well, lol
[15:58] {larisa} bye :)
[15:58] {Threei}  boring but profitable
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:59] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {Threei}  finishish at the low
[15:59] {Threei}  and making new ones
[16:01] {dino} dropped fast
[16:01] {nemo} you'll see us Monday
[16:01] {dino} gn all
[16:01] {Threei}  oh yes
[16:02] {Threei}  it's weekend
[16:02] {Threei}  tells you how well adjusted I am
[16:02] {Threei}  buit I made cool video
[16:02] {Threei}  Bolinger agreed with me
[16:02] {Threei}  on how to use his bands