Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Aug 24 2011

Profitable although quite inactive day. As always, these slow climb day provide us with little opportunity. This trade below was the one that actually made the day (although not the only profitable one):

The right way to play reversals -  buy on the RIGHT side of the V, after the confirmation, not guess on the left before the bottom is formed. Here is illustration, TNA bottom fishing trade called at 11:04. A few long red candles with sharp volume increase constituted capitulation; next red one with downward tail pierced lower Bollinger Band and occurred on much lower volume; break of the resistance followed indicating high odds of reversal coming. 15 cents risk, 45 cents reward, nice and easy.

Session Time: Wed Aug 24 00:00:00 2011
[08:30] {Threei}  (US) JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 4.0% V 2.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: +0.7% V -0.5%E
[09:17] {Threei}  (GE) German Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates view of being against the issuance of Euro bonds
[09:17] {Threei}  - Renews demand for debt brakes and sanctions on countries that misuse structural funds
[09:17] {Threei}  - Euro-zone members must enact reforms which cannot be delayed
[09:17] {Threei}  - Mistakes made with the introduction of the Euro can only be solved in a step by step process
[09:17] {Threei}  - Euro has proven itself and is more stable a currency than the German Deutsche-mark ever was
[09:26] {dino} gm
[09:26] {RonS} gm
[09:26] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {Threei}  gm all
[09:28] {Threei}  ok, everyone knows first play, right?
[09:29] {nemo} slw short
[09:29] {Threei}  see, I can sleep in
[09:30] {Threei}  ummm
[09:30] {Threei}  need bounce
[09:31] {nemo} uthr dino
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .30 break
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:33] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  there is CBO projection, very long, but:
[09:35] {Threei}  - CBO's baseline, cumulative deficits total $3.5 trillion between 2012 and 2021, and by the end of 2021, debt held by the public equals 61 percent of GDP. That estimate of deficits over the next 10 years is considerably lower than the $6.7 trillion that the agency projected in March
[09:35] {Threei}  just what has changed since march??
[09:35] {RonS}'s closer to the election...
[09:36] {nemo} very weird...have to read the assumptions, the asbstract will be available on the website
[09:36] {Threei}  seems like this is what proppd the market
[09:36] {nemo} or the production numbers
[09:36] {Threei}  ?
[09:36] {Threei}  what production numbers?
[09:37] {nemo} durable goods
[09:37] {RonS} who believes the CBO on anything?
[09:37] {Threei}  they were at 8:30
[09:37] {nemo} yeah
[09:37] {Threei}  I am talking about this spike right after open
[09:37] {nemo} yearly pivot on spy 116.72 that
[09:37] {nemo} that's what's going on
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:39] {nemo} spready for slw
[09:42] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {Threei}  1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  short SLW, a.k.a. Old Faithful
[09:44] {patience} nice call
[09:44] {Threei}  ty
[09:44] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[09:46] {Threei}  awww
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .30 break
[09:51] {nemo} big rally today
[09:51] {nemo} if we break .75 we close the gap
[09:52] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  43 break
[09:59] {Threei}  half lot
[10:00] {Threei}  stop under .90
[10:01] {Threei}  *(US) JUN HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q2 HPI Q/Q: -0.6% V -0.4%E
[10:02] {dino} gpor sm l .25
[10:03] {Threei}  SLW is relentlessly downtrending
[10:04] {Threei}  so's GLD
[10:04] {patience} comex expiry tomorrow
[10:07] {RonS} caught .98 to .16  ty
[10:07] {Threei}  FCX?
[10:07] {Threei}  whoa GLD
[10:08] {Threei}  and when I say whoa I mean, drop whatever you want
[10:08] {Threei}  GLD gold holdings drop by 25 tonnes on Tuesday: biggest one day outflow since January 25
[10:09] {RonS} should we be playing the dzz?
[10:09] {nemo} had to ship it to Venezuela
[10:09] {patience} mr. chavaz came calling
[10:10] {Threei}  DZZ... hate the way it trades
[10:11] {Threei}  I am not overly active so far guys, main reason being:
[10:12] {Threei}  something changes in the market
[10:12] {Threei}  and I haven't grasped the full extent andf character of a change yet
[10:12] {Threei}  so staying on a careful side
[10:14] {Threei}  (US) JUN HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.9% v 0.2%e
[10:15] {Threei}  what's with positive news all of a sudden
[10:15] {Threei}  white house said enough of doom and gloom ?
[10:16] {dino} messing w/numbers
[10:22] {Threei}  SLW
[10:22] {Threei}  double bottom
[10:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {dino} gpor stop -.31
[10:30] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -2.2M V +1ME; GASOLINE: +1.35 V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +1.73M V +500KE;
[10:35] {nemo} tna .88
[10:37] {nemo} 1/2 .08
[10:38] {nemo} 1/4 more .28
[10:40] {nemo} stop b/e
[10:40] {Threei}  nice management
[10:40] {nemo} ty
[10:40] {Threei}  I value this kind of things even more than finding setups
[10:40] {Threei}  this is maturity
[10:41] {nemo} oy
[10:41] {Threei}  sorry, didn't mean to insult you by implying you are mature
[10:41] {nemo} phewwwww
[10:41] {Threei}  just wanted t underline the difference between trader and his bunny - even bunny can find a setup here and there, only a trader can manage it
[10:42] {Threei}  see? back on track with insults :)
[10:42] {nemo} bunny can only hit keys, can't handle the mouse
[10:42] {Threei}  that's actually a good way to out it
[10:42] {Threei}  put
[10:42] {dino} sm l gpor ave .87
[10:44] {nemo} stop .25
[10:45] {nemo} out
[10:58] {dino} uthr sm l .25
[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  41 break
[11:04] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[11:05] {Threei}  1:1
[11:05] {Threei}  my target is 1:3
[11:05] {patience} nice
[11:05] {Threei}  1:2
[11:05] {dino} tzoo sm l .26
[11:05] {nemo} minimum .50
[11:06] {nemo} btw...this has a very good chance of going to 42
[11:07] {nemo} you might add if it breaks .50
[11:07] {Threei}  could be
[11:07] {Threei}  but my read is over at .45
[11:07] {nemo} vwap 42
[11:07] {nemo} spy vwap .96
[11:07] {Threei}  that's YOUR read :)
[11:07] {Threei}  I barely know what vwap is
[11:07] {nemo} fine
[11:08] {Threei}  out
[11:08] {Threei}  target is hit for me
[11:11] {dino} out tzoo .80, +.54
[11:18] {dino} out uthr .65, +.40
[11:26] {Threei}
[11:47] {dino}  uthr sm l .00
[12:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
[12:16] {Threei}  invalidated, looking for better entry
[12:20] {Threei}  (US) White House deputy press sec: President Obama plans to make suggestions to the Congressional super committee on debt reduction strategies
[12:20] {Threei}  wow, really?
[12:21] {dino} and this is news? where the hell has he been? guy's an idiot
[12:23] {Threei}  well, I evaluate it not as much as news as an achievement: he plans to make a suggestion
[12:23] {Threei}  you'll have to agree, this is better than not to plan to make a suggestion
[12:24] {Threei}  or plan not to make one
[12:24] {Threei}  also, important detail is,
[12:24] {Threei}  he doesan't know what suggestion he is going to make, he just plans to make it
[12:25] {Threei}  but as planning process goes forward, I am sure the suggestion itself will shape up as well
[12:28] {dino} guy couldn't even suggest a budget, don't get your hopes up
[12:29] {Threei}  what else is left... just hope for some hopium
[12:31] {dino} tzoo sm l .60
[12:37] {dino} agn spike
[12:41] {dino} sm s .00
[12:42] {dino} stop -.25
[12:50] {dino} fmx sm l .77
[13:03] {dino} out fmx 27, +.50
[13:03] {Threei}  nice
[13:03] {dino} ty
[13:06] {dino} out tzoo .94, +.34
[13:40] {Threei}  TZA, pullback to .50 - .60 area for long entry
[13:50] {Threei}  missed
[13:50] {Threei}  too fast
[13:50] {Threei}  if goes there second time, not a buy anymore
[13:59] {nemo} slw chart looks interesting
[14:00] {Threei}  Magnitude 6.7 quake hits Peru, buildings shake Lima
[14:00] {Threei}  that 2012 stuff looks truer by day
[14:00] {nemo} yeah, guy on the futures feed is in peru, just saying his room started shaking
[14:11] {Threei}  (US) Pentagon: China on track to achieve "modern, regionally-focused" military by 2020
[14:11] {Threei}  - China's military might may raise concerns among neighbors.
[14:11] {Threei}  - Unlikely to be able to deploy large forces for combat before 2020
[14:39] {nemo} wonder what they define as "regionally"  If it's like the US,
[14:39] {nemo} you have one carrier group for the atlantic region, one for the pacific region, one for the indian region, and 3 for the Middle East Region
[15:04] {Threei}  Just 14% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
[15:07] {nemo} if I didn't know better, I would think tza were long here
[15:08] {Threei}  hard to tell... looking at it too
[15:08] {nemo} vaseline trade
[15:08] {Threei}  quite inactive day for me, albeit nicely profitable
[15:08] {dino} finland backing off collateral requirement
[15:11] {Threei}  don' see it on my news yet
[15:13] {Threei}  you sure it's real new dino?
[15:13] {Threei}  no market reaction either
[15:13] {dino} realmoney mentioned it
[15:14] {nemo} this should be the run to new highs
[15:19] {dino} took hours, but out gpor .21, +34
[15:20] {Threei}  I dunno dino... I am not sure you are allowed to keep money that took so long to make...
[15:20] {dino} thats called earning it
[15:22] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:22] {Threei}  I am trying to grasp the concept
[15:25] {dino} don't bother, it would drive you nuts
[15:29] {Threei}  still hope for one last reversal play
[15:29] {nemo} I was lookin at .76 long tza on that volume but decided against it
[15:30] {dino} nothing jumping out at me
[15:30] {Threei}  no
[15:30] {dino} waiting for a spike or capit
[15:30] {Threei}  but lookiong at TZA for pullback to47.5
[15:30] {Threei}  for entry
[15:36] {nemo} that production number might put the fed on hold this weekend
[15:38] {dino} think he was on hold anyway. bigger problem is european mess, imo
[15:38] {dino} lphi drop
[15:38] {nemo} yes
[15:40] {dino} sm l .85
[15:41] {dino} out .15, +.30
[15:41] {Threei}  TZA starts looking tempting
[15:41] {Threei}  half lot
[15:41] {dino} too soon
[15:43] {Threei}  ok
[15:43] {Threei}  in
[15:43] {Threei}  .65
[15:43] {Threei}  stop under .50 of course
[15:44] {Threei}  that was fast
[15:44] {nemo} wanted the gap border
[15:48] {Threei}  now it works
[15:48] {Threei}  just needed one last rinse
[15:48] {nemo} yeah spy had to get that level
[15:56] {dino} out uthr -.07
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:00] {nemo} c u
[16:00] {larisa} bye :)