Friday, August 26, 2011

Aug 26 2011

After a nice winning streak, a day when you can't trade your way out of wet paper bag should come. Mine came today. Shrug. New week, new opportunities.

A few quotes from A Taoist Trader over nearest days, first today:

Session Time: Fri Aug 26 00:00:00 2011
[08:54] {Threei}  LOL... "Bank of America has two problems. First, it's a bank. Second, of America"
[08:57] {nemo}
[09:02] {Threei}  total Wonderland
[09:03] {RonS} gm...when the citizenry is brutalized as criminals they will become criminals...
[09:04] {Threei}  so true ron
[09:04] {Threei}  I know that better than most, having witnessed firsthand whole country population made criminals
[09:11] {dino} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {Threei}  am I still allowed to quote myself?
[09:18] {Threei}  A Taoist Trader accepts the unwelcome and welcomes the unexpected
[09:18] {Threei}  if not, boohoo - I just did
[09:21] {RonS} neal sedaka song?
[09:21] {RonS} "it's my party"
[09:21] {dino} who is this taoist trader you speak of? :D
[09:21] {Threei}  how would I know
[09:21] {Threei}  not that I ever met him
[09:25] {gen} gm everybody
[09:25] {gen} :)
[09:25] {larisa} gm :)
[09:25] {Threei}  gen, larisa :)
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:32] {Threei}  stop above .20 or .25
[09:32] {Threei}  bith are valid
[09:32] {Threei}  both too
[09:34] {Threei}  no go
[09:34] {nemo} ow
[09:34] {nemo} jumped my cover out .33
[09:41] {Threei}  things are jumpy and unsettled
[09:41] {Threei}  no clear setups
[09:42] {nemo} probably stay that way with the Jhole stuff Friday and the hurricane
[09:42] {dino} jackson hole at 10:00
[09:42] {Threei}  SLW spread is still wide
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[09:44] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:45] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:45] {RonS} ...guess patience got capped...
[09:46] {patience} good morning
[09:47] {Threei}  morning
[09:48] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .40 break
[09:48] {nemo} took it long .41
[09:49] {nemo} 1/2 .50
[09:49] {Threei}  still valid, IMO
[09:49] {nemo} .42 bid
[09:50] {nemo} out below .42
[09:50] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:50] {nemo} out .52 numbers coming
[09:50] {Threei}  5 min
[09:51] {nemo} huge sell .49 see if .42 bidder shows up
[09:51] {Threei}  valid again
[09:52] {Threei}  .50 break was better idea in rertospect
[09:52] {Threei}  missed FCX .40 break
[09:52] {Threei}  grrr
[09:54] {nemo} what a chopfest
[09:54] {Threei}  no kidding
[09:56] {nemo} bfd
[09:57] {pragmatic} who is Ben Bernanke ?
[09:57] {nemo} Hed of The Fed
[09:57] {nemo} Federal Reserve
[09:58] {Threei}  He Who Prints the Money
[09:58] {pragmatic} the mesage just popped on Laser
[09:59] {dino} think they are looking for galt
06[10:01] * pragmatic what a nice red bar on spy!
[10:01] {Threei}  "we are out of bullets"
[10:01] {dino} thx bernie, thought you might just stop doing anything
[10:07] {Threei}  - Reiterates that the Fed possesses the tools necessary to aid the economy.
[10:07] {Threei}  - Notes that Fed will meet for two days instead of one in September, to consider moves to provide additional monetary stimulus and other issues at that time.
[10:07] {Threei}  - The US needs to develop better fiscal decision making processes.
[10:07] {Threei}  - Pace of economic recovery has been slower than hoped, still sees better growth over the second half of 2011. The global economy is generating significant growth.
[10:07] {Threei}  - Still expects inflation to be at or below target rate of 2%.
[10:08] {larisa} how come I  spend 30% more on groceries buying same stuff as year ago :)
[10:09] {larisa} oh i know..
[10:09] {Threei}  haha
[10:09] {larisa} my house is 28% cheaper :)
[10:09] {nemo} they don't count
[10:10] {Threei}  **NOTE: Bernanke's speech lacked any mention of QE3 or "Operation Twist," potential moves to aid markets observers had been hoping for.
[10:10] {Threei}  from my yesterday's prophecy:
[10:10] {Threei}  Tomorrow is Jackson Hole speech, and my strong feeling is, it will be nothing but fizzle. No definite promise of QE3, no categorical denial either. We will see how good I am at prophecies :)
[10:10] {Threei}  done quoting myself... for now :)
[10:12] {Threei}  if anyone is interested in full text,
[10:13] {Threei}  not sure why anyone wqould though
[10:14] {nemo} hehehe:  spy bounced right at Semesterly S3
[10:15] {dino} good, thats out of the way, back to work
[10:18] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .95 break
[10:18] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[10:18] {dino} slh partial fill l .45
[10:19] {nemo} vwap at .10 might go there first
[10:21] {Threei}  market spike
[10:21] {Threei}  not my day so far
[10:22] {dino} turn that frown upside down
[10:23] {Threei}  na, no frown
[10:23] {Threei}  had a good string of winning days, sooner or later it had to end
[10:23] {Threei}  and there is whole day ahead still
[10:23] {dino} out slh .77 ave +.32
[10:33] {nemo} tza .01 long wow
[10:33] {nemo} 1/2 out .35
[10:33] {dino}  nice
[10:33] {nemo} 1/4 more .51
[10:33] {nemo} stop .15
[10:34] {nemo} it ripped
[10:34] {nemo} target 52. 30 area
[10:34] {dino} wtfg
[10:35] {nemo} out .51
[10:35] {nemo} damn
[10:35] {nemo} volatility
[10:36] {nemo} oops
[10:37] {nemo} gawd
[10:37] {dino} sm l chk .25
[10:40] {dino} sm l infy .50
[10:43] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:43] {Threei}  I prepare TZA alert and keep it ready - and it moves 20 cents just as I want to hit enter
[10:44] {Threei}  and while I type this, it drops 40
[10:45] {nemo} think spy wants 116.75 area
[10:46] {dino} chk to .55 infy to .80
[10:47] {dino} out chk .65, +.40
[10:47] {Threei}  (US) VP Biden: US economy needs more stimulus
[10:47] {Threei}  imbecile
[10:47] {dino} infy to .90
[10:49] {dino} out infy .95, +.45
[10:54] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[10:54] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[10:56] {Threei}  trail to .36
[10:57] {Threei}  1:1
[11:00] {Threei}  1:2
[11:00] {Threei}  out
[11:00] {Threei}  neede this win
[11:01] {Threei}  (GR) Greece said to be at risk for meeting its fiscal targets for 2011 - financial press
[11:01] {Threei}  lol
[11:04] {dino} shocking
[11:09] {RonS} holy smokes panl
[11:12] {dino} crazy pulp, panl
[11:15] {dino} well, another 300 pt range day
[11:17] {RonS} O's par for the course...job killing so pervasive its barely noticed anymore:
[11:18] {nemo} there's more to that story ron
[11:19] {RonS} do tell obi wan...
[11:22] {nemo} I'm trying to remember the details, but it goes back to the 2008 time period, and it's not just that act...It puts restrictions on imports also when you have strained supply...look up that act and reports around 2008...that's a bit of a slanted story
[11:22] {nemo} serves a good political purpose though
[11:26] {RonS} thanks for clearing that up
[11:29] {nemo}
[11:29] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .25 break
[11:30] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[11:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[11:35] {nemo} .72 is pivot
[11:35] {Threei}  and .73 is high
[11:35] {nemo} yep
[11:35] {nemo} good stop
[11:36] {Threei}  nope
[11:36] {nemo} and resistance from yesterday at 3ish threeish
[11:43] {nemo} wow, this volatility
[11:50] {nemo} spy walking daily pivot
[11:56] {RonS} check the hourly on the eur
[11:58] {RonS} cigx murdered on court rulings
[12:01] {dino}  i don't get the euro, so strong w/countries falling apart
[12:01] {Threei}  no one does
[12:01] {nemo} hope
[12:01] {Threei}  one theory that I am more or less willing to subscribe to is:
[12:02] {Threei}  the bet is that once it becomes inevitable, weakest members will be cut off but the union and currency will stay
[12:02] {Threei}  and will become stronger for it
[12:03] {Threei}  I don't think it's correct, I just acknowledge that such bet may exist and materializes in buying Euro
[12:03] {nemo} It may be people feeling there are a few more rounds left in the Musical chairs game on the decks of the Titanic
[12:04] {Threei}  yeah
[12:04] {Threei}  in my view, that won't work like this
[12:04] {Threei}  once exodus starts, it spreads
[12:04] {Threei}  contagion becomes widespread
[12:04] {Threei}  and union, if survives, will consist of a few strongest countries
[12:05] {Threei}  but that makes little sense,
[12:05] {nemo} purely technically, this market action is very bullish for next week
[12:05] {Threei}  as the whole idea was to unitete strong producers with weaker ones, to provide them with new markets
[12:06] {Threei}  strong producers united with each other - that's not what union was created for
[12:06] {Threei}  I dunno nemo... look at volume
[12:08] {nemo} last week of summer on Friday before hurricane, I expect volume to be low,
[12:11] {dino} me too, leaning towards nemo
[12:14] {nemo} I would think we end up near the daily pivots today
[12:21] {dino} i'm a bit disappointed i did not catch more of this move
[12:21] {nemo} that makes two of us
[12:22] {dino} 3/3 but nothing huge
[12:22] {Threei}  what to say about me then, who can't trade 25 cents for a phone call today? :)
[12:22] {nemo} bohica
[12:25] {dino} lol
[12:26] {nemo} hehehehehe
[12:33] {Threei}  TZA
[12:33] {Threei}  48 break
[12:34] {nemo} held .80 so far, think it's important
[12:36] {nemo} 1:1
[12:36] {Threei}  1/3 out .18
[12:36] {nemo} nice call vad
[12:36] {Threei}  stop to .95
[12:36] {nemo} ballshy
[12:36] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:36] {Threei}  ty... I guess
[12:36] {Threei}  but I still need to find out what exactly ballshy is
[12:36] {nemo} ballsy
[12:36] {Threei}  :)
[12:36] {nemo} brass ones
[12:37] {Threei}  oh, so shy is from shiny?
[12:39] {dino} back in hour or so
[12:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  44 break
[12:49] {Threei}  TZA rinsed balance
[12:53] {nemo} friday afternoon before the hurricane chop time
[13:05] {nemo} I'm calling it a draw on this one
[13:11] {Threei}  good call
[13:20] {nemo} now I'd be tempted to go fcx short
[13:24] {Threei}  .10?
[13:24] {Threei}  NY subway will shut down tomorow at noon
[13:24] {nemo} not sure yet watching indexes
[13:26] {nemo} I'm wondering if wu wei should rule also being Friday afternoon, hard to read, easy to push things higher with no volume
[13:26] {Threei}  well... often it's the case
[13:26] {Threei}  sometimes it's not
[13:26] {nemo} yeah, today is not normal, hard to apply an edge
[13:26] {Threei}  just watching if something compelling comes up
[13:27] {RonS} ...mayor bloomberg reiterates "no swimming in the subway"
[13:29] {RonS} ok guys...see you monday...daughter leaving early to beat the storm...have a good weekend and thanks to all for a good week
[13:30] {patience} bye Ron
[13:30] {Threei}  take care ron, stays safe, see you on monday
[13:38] {dino} .
[13:45] {nemo} volume spikes in uwm and tna but not iwm
[13:52] {larisa} betting we will sell down to slightly red by the day end :)
[13:52] {Threei}  you think?
[13:52] {nemo} 117.18 daily pivot spy
[13:53] {Threei}  TZA .70 long then
[13:54] {nemo} I think the spy has one more FU in it
[13:54] {Threei}  ok, waiting then
[13:56] {dino} wow larisa
[13:56] {Threei}  carrot juice makes people brave
[13:56] {Threei}  gives them sense of avdenture
[13:57] {larisa} like swimming during hurricane
[13:58] {dino} lol
[13:58] {Threei}  darwin takes care of those :)
[14:01] {nemo} kist creeping up the trendline
[14:11] {Threei}  OK, looking at the SPY...
[14:11] {Threei}  one last bounce, lower high, then breakdown
[14:11] {nemo} yeah, looks short, but wim not so much
[14:12] {nemo} iwm
[14:13] {Threei}  larisa... I came to conclusion that people who iron their shirts on themselves are worse than those swimming in hurricane
[14:13] {nemo} strange friends
[14:13] {Threei}  they have better chance to survive and procreate
[14:14] {Threei}  .70 break again
[14:14] {Threei}  TZA
[14:14] {larisa} missing the point completely.. ironing shirts while wearing them is lazyness, not adventure..
[14:16] {Threei}  dunno... you may say those swimming in the hurricane do it out of laziness - they don't want to come out of the water only to get back in aftter gurricane passes
[14:17] {larisa} I may not,  I am smart one :)
[14:17] {Threei}  ok... I will then
[14:19] {Threei}  referendum results in BC just in on new tax
[14:19] {Threei}  rejected
[14:36] {Threei}  you know what's strange?
[14:37] {nemo} Magoo?
[14:37] {Threei}  lol, yes
[14:37] {Threei}  but aside of that:
[14:37] {Threei}  dollar down, commodities and equities up - as if QE3 was announced
[14:37] {nemo} Les
[14:52] {Threei}  market stubbornly stays up
[14:53] {nemo} vwaps coming up, think daily pivots will be the area of the close
[15:34] {dino} hmmm will lari be right?
[15:34] {larisa} nobody is afraid of hurricanes anymore...
[15:35] {Threei}  see... high time for darwin
[15:35] {Threei}  good lesson in darwin style would be:
[15:35] {Threei}  market is not on at all on Monday as NY is hit,
[15:36] {Threei}  wEurope comes apart Monday evening,
[15:36] {Threei}  Tuesday sees market gapping down 500 points.
[15:36] {Threei}  That's it, reckless optimists are cleaned out
[15:36] {Threei}  and swimming in hurricane finally has its consequences
[15:39] {dino} how about this, germany opts out of euro......or greece simply defaults
[15:40] {dino} odds 1:1 germany,      4:1 greece (within one year
[15:40] {patience} either way, i'm 100% in cash after one trade today....just waiting in the shallows
[15:42] {dino} of course this could happen too, huricane could be mild, germany says ok to bonds, and greece gets disapline
[15:46] {Threei}  so, funny that: first tiem in all these years I think Ben did the right thing
[15:47] {Threei}  backed away and said, Congress must fix fiscal.spending imbalances, not monetary policy tricks
[15:47] {Threei}  I wish he did that two QEs ago
[15:48] {dino} me too, we'd be through this already
[15:48] {Threei}  or at least firmly on the way to healing
[15:54] {Threei}  finishing in the same coma at the high
[15:55] {larisa} see you :)
[15:55] {Threei}  ok guys, let's have a good weekend
[15:55] {Threei}  see you all on Monday
[15:57] {dino} take care all, thx for ideas
[16:00] {Threei}  oh boy
[16:00] {Threei}  US President Obama and IMF's Lagarde agreed earlier today on need for more policies that help growth in the near term- have agreed on need for fiscal consolidation over the medium term
[16:00] {Threei}  this is scary...