Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Nov 16 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Not an easy day - win some, lose some, as market couldn't decide what to do. Reversal to the downside provided us with some plays, and finished slightly positive, but we need market to determine direction to provide us with real opportunities. Luckily it seems to do just that.

  Session Time: Wed Nov 16 00:00:00 2011
[09:04] {dino} gm all
[09:05] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:06] {swill} morning
[09:07] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:12] {Threei}  oh good
[09:13] {Threei}  (EU) EU Commissioner Barnier: Working on possible tools to provide resolution to current Euro crisis; To be presented in the coming weeks
[09:13] {Threei}  finally
[09:13] {Threei}  what's got into RIMM?
[09:14] {Threei}  ah, GS upgrade
[09:14] {Threei}  with target 18, lol
[09:15] {Threei}  *(US) OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 0.7% V 0.4%E
[09:20] {Threei}  first feel is, this number is not going to produce much enthusiasm, and will be used to sell ionto
[09:22] {Threei}  (EU) Ireland PM Kenny: EFSF leverage plan has not convinced markets- Insists that Greece and Ireland are headed in totally different directions
[09:24] {jakob} good morning
[09:24] {Threei}  jakob :)
[09:26] {Threei}  FCX
[09:27] {Threei}  39 is support during poremarket
[09:27] {Threei}  premarket
[09:27] {Threei}  breakdown, half lot short
[09:27] {Threei}  stop above .15 - .20
[09:27] {Threei}  risky trade
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1trail stop to .14
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {dino} cov fcx .90, +.10
[09:37] {Threei}  1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  out in full here
[09:37] {Threei}  easy money
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  39 break
[09:38] {Threei}  still half lot for this one
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[09:39] {Threei}  target 1:2, 2 partials
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {Threei}  half out, stop to .98
[09:40] {Threei}  play by the book
[09:40] {Threei}  no creativity on this kind of plays, cookie-cutter
[09:40] {Threei}  (NV) Netherlands Fin Min: Non-EU contries want to invest in EFSF facility via the IMF
[09:40] {Threei}  Netherlands Fin Min is delirious
[09:41] {Threei}  1:2, over and out
[09:43] {Threei}  ese... missed two and half winning plays
[09:43] {ese} rats
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[09:45] {dino} showing lots of green stocks
[09:48] {Threei}  .41 stop now, was too close to 1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  out
[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .10 break
[09:51] {Threei}  if stays above 35
[09:54] {Threei}  market is hesitant here
[09:55] {Threei}  no go SLW
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .90 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if holding above .80
[09:58] {Threei}  (EU) ECB said to be buying almost no other sovereign debt besides Spanish and Italian bonds - financial presss
[09:59] {Threei}  no need? or no money?
[09:59] {dino} no money, no presses
[09:59] {dino} yet
[10:00] {Threei}  hood NAHB number
[10:00] {Threei}  20 vs 18
[10:00] {dino} opnt sm l .50
[10:02] {Threei}  no go RIMM
[10:02] {Threei}  market sharp drop
[10:03] {Threei}  let's see if we can get TZA entry
[10:03] {Threei}  pullback under .70
[10:04] {Threei}  and entry on recross if holding .60
[10:07] {Threei}  not pulling back
[10:09] {dino} che sm l .00 break gappy
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  43.05 break
[10:10] {Threei}  TZA touched .69 and crossed .70, just as needed... happend way too fast for a call
[10:10] {Threei}  if you caught it, you got nice bounce
[10:12] {dino} dds sm l .01
[10:12] {dino} che stop -.30
[10:14] {Threei}  ok FAZ
[10:14] {Threei}  let's see what you can do
[10:15] {Threei}  not much eh...
[10:16] {patience} good morning
[10:16] {Threei}  patience :)
[10:17] {Threei}  watching TZA again, but want it lower this time
[10:17] {Threei}  (EU) Lithuania's Snoras bank said to be insolvent and in need of govt capital infusion; Lithuania will NOTneed to request IMF aid for this bank - financial press
[10:18] {Threei}  amazing how it became understood by default that every failed bank must have govt help
[10:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
[10:19] {Threei}  stop under .50
[10:21] {Threei}  very chaotic morning
[10:22] {Threei}  1:1
[10:23] {dino} yes
[10:24] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:28] {thomcbell} sndk and mu very strong
[10:28] {thomcbell} need market cooperation
[10:28] {thomcbell} from here
[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.06M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +1.0M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.14M V -3ME;
[10:32] {Threei}  (US) Natural gas lines have exploded in Souteastern Ohio - local press- The Athens County Sheriff's Department reports that there may be multiple gas line explosions in southeast Ohio near Glouster.
[10:38] {Threei} Short Setup: GME  .75 break
[10:38] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[10:42] {Threei}  stop to .81
[10:42] {Threei}  thing is so slow, I was tempted to just cover it under .70
[10:42] {RonS} joyg pop
[10:42] {swill} unfortunatly must drive.  back soon
[10:42] {Threei}  was probably the right way to go
[10:43] {Threei}  JOYG takeover rumors
[10:46] {RonS} hearing fcx ceo on cnbc now
[10:46] {Threei}  yeah
[10:46] {cipher} .50 joyg short thx!
[10:46] {dino}  gj
[10:46] {Threei}  nice cipher
[10:47] {cipher} +.78 ibm
[10:47] {dino} sweet
[10:47] {cipher} sorry too many pos to post entry
[10:47] {cipher} need another monitor :-)
[10:48] {Threei}  GME 1:1
[10:48] {dino} dds to .40
[10:48] {cipher} gme nice vad
[10:48] {Threei}  out in full
[10:48] {cipher} me too
[10:48] {Threei}  not hanging around this one
[10:49] {cipher} +.11
[10:49] {dino} out dds .39
[10:50] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[10:51] {Threei}  stop .67
[10:51] {Threei}  out
[10:55] {dino} opnt to .60
[10:58] {dino} out +.10
[11:00] {RonS} joyg v sm s .00
[11:02] {RonS} out -.20
[11:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05
[11:03] {Threei}  stop under .95
[11:04] {Threei}  spiked a bit too sharply, let's trail to .99
[11:07] {Threei}  starting to think, taking scakps before even 1:1 is the way to go today, lol
[11:08] {dino} igpg sm l .54
[11:09] {RonS} ?
[11:10] {Threei} Short Setup: AGP  .40 break
[11:10] {Threei}  half lot
[11:11] {Threei}  stop .55, target .10
[11:11] {pragmatic} hmm, not shortable
[11:11] {cipher} not shortable here too
[11:11] {Threei}  ok... moving on
[11:13] {Threei} Short Setup: WNR  .95
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays under .005
[11:14] {Threei}  .05
[11:16] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:16] {dino} these are pipeline issues/changeswnr, cvi, hfc, etc
[11:17] {Threei}  Canadian pipeline?
[11:17] {dino} no
[11:17] {Threei}  ok... 'cause we are this close to tell you guys off and send our oil to China :)
[11:22] {dino} i know, and obama is an idiot for stalling
[11:22] {dino} same w/nat gas bill vote today, you watch them kill it
[11:22] {RonS} mountie monti...if mario was rmcp...
[11:23] {Threei}
[11:24] {dino} coo to .47
[11:24] {dino} out +2.47
[11:24] {dino} from yesterday
[11:24] {Threei}  wtg
[11:26] {dino} ty
[11:26] {Threei}  lol, read this
[11:26] {Threei}  (GR) International Institute of Finance (IIF)'s Dallara: Evaluating two options on Greece swap deal; bondholders should keep net present value loss contained in order to maintain voluntary nature
[11:26] {Threei}  bondholders are presented with two options parctically: lose voluntarily or involuntarily
[11:27] {Threei}  put a gun to one's temple and tell him: I am going to pull the trigger in any case, but you have a choice: ask me to do it or don't
[11:27] {dino} lol
[11:28] {Threei}  now, the last line of this one deserves a minute of solemn silence
[11:28] {Threei}  US) Fed's Lacker: Concerned that extraordinary policies have politicized the Fed, political conflicts threaten monetary policy and Fed independence
[11:28] {Threei}  - Fed may need to restrict itself to only holding US Treasuries [vs MBS].
[11:28] {Threei}  - Concerned that giving aid to financial firms created moral hazard expectation of future rescues.
[11:29] {Threei}  haleluja... wasn't it major concern of anyone with brain when they just began those "rescues"?
[11:30] {Threei}  incredible... any decision-maker in this country looks beyonf this very day?
[11:31] {Threei}  and finally, if you want a last dose of optimism for this morning:
[11:31] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Juncker: Debt levels in Germany are concerning, has higher levels than Spain but it is not being discussed - newspaper interview
[11:31] {RonS} ng rippin
[11:32] {dino} situation starting to sound like "when money dies"
[11:32] {Threei}  you know guys
[11:32] {Threei}  less and less do I believe in EU printing
[11:33] {Threei}  morfe and more looks to me like they'll have to let single currency collapse
[11:33] {RonS} incy halt
[11:33] {Threei}  kicking and screaming of course, but they won't be able to pull it off
[11:33] {dino} the collapse will occur when greece says f' it, and defaults
[11:34] {dino} because then the other piigs will follow
[11:34] {Threei}  or Italy... or Spain... or a few smaller ones start demanding similar treatment to Greece
[11:34] {Threei}  there are few scenarios that can lead to it
[11:34] {_jbb2011} incy to resume 5:45pm
[11:35] {Threei}  but I just can't see the unity necessary to put the grand "print our way out of it" plan together
[11:35] {Threei}  you know ICY news, right?
[11:36] {Threei}  INCY
[11:36] {Threei}  or want me to post?
[11:36] {_jbb2011} meant 1145am ET
[11:36] {dino} my gut says the printing happens first, but in any case default occurs
[11:36] {Threei}  short version:
[11:36] {Threei}  Incyte Corporation FDA approves Jakafi (ruxolitinib) in treatment for bone marrow disease (myelofibrosis)
[11:36] {Threei}  yes, 11:45, jbb, ty
[11:37] {Threei}  AGP collapse
[11:37] {Threei}  my gut disagrees dino :)
[11:38] {Threei}  or to be exact, it says:
[11:38] {Threei}  they'll try, they'll do small portion of it,
[11:38] {Threei}  it won't be enough,
[11:38] {Threei}  and when it comes to prnting a lot, they'll fail
[11:38] {RonS} uh oh...incy 30 mil sh short...12% of float...this is gonna be fun...
[11:38] {Threei}  momo candidate?
[11:39] {dino} i feel they start printing first, but in the end it does not matter
[11:39] {Threei}  the scale of debt is just too great
[11:40] {Threei}  they need anywhere from 4 to 6 T to solve it all
[11:40] {Threei}  no way they can pull it off
[11:40] {dino} i know, the 1t talk is a joke
[11:40] {Threei}  yup... "instilling confidence" silly talk
[11:44] {Threei}  INCY trading
[11:47] {Threei}  ABIO
[11:48] {Threei}  small bios are hot
[11:48] {Threei}  ABIO Gencaro Demonstrated 74% Risk Reduction for New Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure Patients with Genotype Believed to Be Found in Nearly 50% of Population
[11:48] {Threei}  if you want to try and catch INCY bounce, let it drop to about 13.30
[11:49] {Threei}  small shares
[11:49] {Threei}  Italian yield above 7% again
[11:56] {Threei}  here comes INCY
[11:56] {Threei}  one more leg down
[12:18] {dino} csh sm l .34 thin
[12:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[12:22] {Threei}  just a scalp
[12:30] {RonS} wow rmbs
[12:30] {Threei}  well, RMBS
[12:31] {Threei}  remember that antitrust trial verdict expected for, umm, forever
[12:31] {Threei}  should be anounced today
[12:31] {RonS} ah so...
[12:31] {Threei}  ABIO halt, curcuit breaker
[12:31] {Threei}  anyone found a play in it?
[12:31] {Threei}  was about a dollar lower when mentioned
[12:34] {thomcbell} Vad - this action is so artificial no?
[12:34] {Threei}  in what?
[12:34] {Threei}  out SLW with scalp
[12:34] {Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {thomcbell} indexes
[12:37] {Threei}  well... I'd put it this way:
[12:37] {Threei}  wow SLW, 1:2
[12:37] {Threei}  just when i decide to limit myself to scalp
[12:37] {Threei}  sorry, got distracted
[12:38] {dino} tbell, if it happens it is real bro
[12:38] {Threei}  it feels artificial in a sense that thewre is no natural flow to it
[12:38] {Threei}  no this normal "bulls, bears, who wins"
[12:38] {Threei}  and the reason there is no such flow is:
[12:39] {Threei}  neither side is convinced,
[12:39] {Threei}  neither wants to committ
[12:39] {thomcbell} god forbid there was resolution - 1450 spx
[12:39] {Threei}  everyone feels the earth is very shaky under their feet,
[12:39] {Threei}  bears know they will get pummeled if some kind of ephemeric solution is offered,
[12:40] {Threei}  no matter how ephemeric it is - immediate reation will be huge
[12:40] {Threei}  bulls know they will get destroyed if something bad happenes,
[12:40] {Threei}  and there are so many things that can go wrong, no way to tell which one of them hapens first
[12:41] {Threei}  so it's not tgrading - it's testing waters,
[12:41] {Threei}  dipping one's toe, ready to jump out on a moment notice
[12:41] {Threei}  thus these low volumes,
[12:41] {Threei}  thus these sharp and sudden reversals
[12:42] {Threei}  follow my drift?
[12:42] {Threei}  that's why we are staying so nimble
[12:42] {Threei}  grabbing our little 10 cets here, 20 cents there
[12:42] {Threei}  or they grab them from us
[12:43] {Threei}  the moment some kind of resolution comes, whichever way it is - trading will change drastically
[12:43] {Threei}  now... who played that SLW break?
[12:44] {swill} I got a scalp
[12:44] {Threei}  :)
[12:44] {swill} :)
[12:45] {RonS} 3i is larisa ok?
[12:46] {Threei}  she mentioned vacation in Mexico coming, but I haven't marked the dates
[12:46] {Threei}  I assume that's where she is
[12:46] {RonS} k
[12:46] {Threei}  no one tells me anything
[12:47] {Threei}  I am so frustrated about this - imagine, Berlusconi had aucdacity not to invite me to his good buy bunga bunga party
[12:47] {Threei}  good bye too
[12:56] {Threei}
[12:56] {Threei}  want to have it in writing
[13:02] {Threei}  what, did I scare the living daylight out of you?
[13:02] {Threei}  someone breathe please
[13:03] {RonS} good .
[13:04] {Threei}  ok... Ron breathes... I know dino does too - he doesn';t give a flying sneeze about what transpires, beyond passing interest
[13:04] {Threei}  oh and btw dino, on a matter of greater interest:
[13:05] {Threei}  Two and half men ratings drop dramatically
[13:05] {Threei}  RMBS spike again
[13:05] {Threei}  no verdict yet on wires
[13:05] {swill} I will read later but scalpers win
[13:05] {Threei}  lol
[13:06] {dino} its not as good w/o charlie
[13:06] {Threei}  not as good?
[13:06] {Threei}  man, you are polite one
[13:06] {Threei}  it's absolute cr*p
[13:07] {Threei}  ONTY
[13:07] {dino} lol
[13:07] {Threei}  Wedbush gave it 31 target
[13:07] {dino} now modern family is funny
[13:08] {Threei}  DNDN halt
[13:08] {Threei}  what's with small bios today
[13:11] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[13:11] {Threei}  if dtays under .30
[13:12] {Threei}  just a scalp
[13:21] {dino} 125.86 pivot
[13:23] {RonS} rmbs halt news
[13:23] {Threei}  both, RBMS and MU
[13:23] {Threei}  decision is expected to be read at 2
[13:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  39 break
[13:32] {Threei}  stop under .90
[13:34] {dino} out half ipgp +.28
[13:34] {Threei}  nice
[13:35] {dino} thx
[13:38] {dino} wall at .84
[13:38] {dino} through
06[13:40] * Threei kicks FCX in the rear
[13:43] {Threei}  that's a lot of distribution on FCX at this level
[13:44] {Threei}  won't move with market
[13:44] {Threei}  maybe let's scratch it
[13:44] {Threei}  or at least trail to .94
[13:46] {dino} ipgp to .03
[13:48] {dino} to .09
[13:51] {dino} stop, slipped to .06, +.52
[13:52] {Threei}  next region of tesions is being outlined:
[13:52] {Threei}
[13:52] {RonS} ...lock up the women...
[13:53] {dino} csh to b/e, stuck
[13:54] {dino} out
[13:54] {Threei}  morning was so active and readable, then everything turned into toal jellyfish
[13:54] {Threei}  where is ese, I want hin to read this article
[13:55] {Threei}  and tell us how president wants to demilitarize USA
[13:55] {RonS} lol
[13:56] {RonS} oh but the spell of O is strong...besides everyone know that bush is making him do it
[13:57] {dino} roflol, and he still blames "w" for everything
[13:57] {RonS} ...and the weak, lazy he has ever has a real job
[13:57] {RonS} had
[13:58] {dino} wow, community organizer and 1 term voter of "present"
[14:00] {swill} back soon
[14:02] {dino} whers that rmbs verdict
[14:02] {Threei}  Rambus Inc Hearing JP Morgan comments on pending lawsuit ruling (timing uncertain)- A win over $2B will increase stock price to as high as $50/shr depending on the size of the verdict, while a verdict below $2B could send the stock lower. - Firm recommends buying RMBS under $10 if it loses the case.
[14:03] {RonS} it's a court, not a track race start...
[14:03] {RonS} :D
[14:03] {dino} so 1.99 b kills it but 2.1 b doubles it
[14:03] {Threei}  see? value added
[14:03] {dino} value added, lol
[14:03] {RonS} lol
[14:08] {dino} out chk .99, +.24
[14:14] {RonS} California jury rejects Rambus $RMBS price-fixing claims against Hynix, Micron $MU
[14:15] {Threei}  poor RMBS
[14:15] {Threei}  is this all? no more appeals?
[14:15] {Threei}  this case existed for alost as long as RMBS, lol
[14:23] {dino} wow
[14:34] {RonS} ...had big salad and crackers for lunch...was still hungry and bummin out...then bamm...remembered have halloween candy bars...prob solved
[14:35] {Threei}  lol
[14:36] {dino} lol, eating a snickers from halloween myself
[14:40] {patience} ok, you east coat people...hawaiin air has just started jfk to honolulu direct flights, opening special is $212     I want to go.....
[14:40] {patience} coast
[14:40] {RonS} wow...need a ticket like that
[14:41] {patience} it is cold in victoria
[14:41] {RonS} 40 here and windy
[14:43] {RonS} get this...wife's aunt lives in san marino ca, old money rich...the poor cities bus in kids for halloween...they had 800 kids that came in groups of 20...
[14:44] {patience} sends the wrong message
[14:46] {RonS} dsw at 200 sma -3.37
[14:49] {Threei}  RMBS reviewing options for appeal
[14:49] {Threei}  it'll never end
[14:51] {dino} any news dsw?
[14:51] {RonS} ...epa outlaws shoes?
[14:52] {dino} lol, maybe shoe laces
[14:53] {dino} option ex games perhaps
[14:54] {RonS} dammit...unreal...from bloomberg:  U.S. stocks pared losses amid speculation the Federal Reserve may help the European Central Bank fight the region’s debt crisis.
[14:55] {dino} just great, we'll get stuck w/worthless debt
[14:55] {swill} back for the day. who's going to ware that
[14:58] {Threei}  no way
[14:58] {Threei}  not going to happen
[14:58] {Threei}  OWS raging on the streets is nothing comparing to what is going to happlen is they try to pull it off
[15:00] {dino} dsw sm l .11, stop lod
[15:02] {Threei}  I don't see resumption time for RMBS
[15:02] {dino} nor i
[15:12] {Threei} Short Setup: USO  .50 break
[15:13] {Threei}  stop above .60, target 1:2
[15:22] {Threei}  1:1 close enough for a first partial
[15:25] {Threei}  scalpers of course are out
06[15:25] * Threei slants at swill
[15:26] {swill} I was more happy about the past.  the broker said not on th e list
[15:30] {dino} going for 1239 gap
[15:30] {RonS} downside break in the triangle everyone has been talking about
[15:32] {Threei}  omn increasing volume too
[15:33] {dino} filled
[15:34] {Threei}  no news for this selloff
[15:34] {Threei}  quite imporessive
[15:34] {Threei}  USO 1:2
[15:34] {Threei}  out
[15:35] {thomcbell}     Fitch comments pushing mkts lower.... Fitch issues report on Eurozone contagion; US banks have manageable exposure but could be affected - U.S. banks have manageable direct exposures to the stressed European markets (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), but further contagion poses a serious risk, - Fitch believes that unless the Eurozone debt cris
[15:36] {Threei}  I saw that one... didn't think it was causing selling
[15:37] {dino} 11894, 2312 next
[15:37] {dino} they say the same junk every day
[15:40] {Threei}  rofl
[15:40] {Threei}  Congress will hold 4pm conference call to discuss trading strategies around the super-committee deadline
[15:40] {dino} lol
[15:41] {dino} opnt l .56
[15:45] {dino} fio drop
[15:46] {Threei}  RMBS
[15:46] {Threei}  mama
[15:46] {dino} wow
[15:47] {dino} again tho, thx for the halt, no chance short or getting out
[15:48] {Threei}  no kidding
[15:51] {thomcbell} curious strength MU earlier
[15:51] {thomcbell} i am very skeptical today
[15:52] {Threei}  today?
[15:52] {Threei}  nemo will be proud of you only when you drop this kind of elaborations
[15:52] {thomcbell} haha
[15:53] {Threei}  as if yesterday presented any reasons for different outloook :)
[15:53] {thomcbell} nice close - lol
[15:54] {Threei}  we may get a better market...
[15:54] {dino} 11894 just missed
[15:54] {Threei}  hopefully direction finbally appears
[15:55] {dino} what we've been doing is filling gaps every few days
[15:56] {patience} down $100 bucks today, but only one trade....need some common sense back in the market
[15:56] {Threei}  common sense?
[15:56] {dino} up 600 but it was tough
[15:56] {Threei}  common sense isn't
[15:58] {Threei}  I like the way market sold off
[15:58] {Threei}  decisively
[15:58] {dino} c'mon fill those gaps
[15:59] {Threei}  look at SPY daily
[15:59] {Threei}  no support till 120
[15:59] {dino} 11894 filled
[16:00] {dino} 2312 left, at open my guess
[16:00] {Threei}  looking forward to tomorrow's trading
[16:00] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:00] {thomcbell} thanks guys
[16:00] {thomcbell} good night
[16:00] {swill} thank you. night
[16:01] {dino} gaps down 11657, 2400, 1254 , 1215
[16:01] {dino} 2312
[16:01] {patience} ty all
[16:02] {dino} ntap blood