Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Nov 23 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nicely profitable day readable although activity died early. Still, TZA and other usual suspects did their job for us.

Session Time: Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 2011
[08:00] {_optionman} good morning
[08:30] {Threei}  morning
[08:38] {thomcbell} Vad - yesterday you were looking for buy setups - on monday you wanted to short the first bounce - what determines your initial bias'
[08:40] {Threei}  it's not necessary the same thing every time
[08:41] {Threei}  can't remember about Monday, that was beyond my memory span...
[08:41] {thomcbell} i figured - today will you state your reasoning for your initial bias
[08:41] {Threei}  lol
[08:41] {Threei}  yesterday it was mostly market pre-opening reaction to bad news headlines,
[08:41] {Threei}  it was lurching up,
[08:42] {Threei}  as if it were too tired of hearing them and wanted to bounce anyway
[08:42] {Threei}  signs of technical bounce coming...
[08:42] {Threei}  turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 393K V 390KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.691M V 3.621ME
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) OCT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -0.7% V -1.2%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: +0.7% V 0.0%E
[08:55] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Goldman Sach analyst note on Euro: Recommends closing position on Euro longs (timing uncertain)- Goldman previously recommended being long the EUR/USD pair back
[08:55] {Threei}  on Nov 11th
[08:55] {Threei}  hmm... did Euro really gain since Nov 11?
[08:57] {Threei}  not according to my charts
[09:03] {Threei}  ah, I see... headline said "taking gains", but that didn't make it in the body of the news
[09:03] {Threei}  (BE) Belgium 5-year gov't yield moves above 5.00%, higher by over 40bps in session
[09:16] {swill} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:17] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:18] {patience} good morning
[09:19] {Threei}  patience :)
[09:20] {_nocki} morning
[09:21] {Threei}  nocki :)
[09:22] {Threei}  So, after all these troubles, falling governments, agonizing over various ways to save this and rescue that, we get this morning:
[09:22] {Threei}  - Greece Central Bank issued an interim monetary report which bluntly stated that the country faced the risk of an Euro Zone exit. Public debt was no longer seen as sustainable and country's Euro zone membership was at stake.
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel commented that money to defend the euro was limited and could not print money to defend euro. She added that EU Commission focus on euro bonds was inappropriate as it give the impression that the debt burden could be share and reiterated that joint euro bonds would not work... Lastly she... reiterated that there would be no sixth payment for Greece unless all parties sign the agreement
[09:22] {Threei}  - Moody's sovereign credit chief stated that he expected the credit picture in Europe to continue to be quite negative for some time to come
[09:22] {Threei}  - S&P: Euro region crisis might worsen in coming weeks
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view... that the origin of the crisis must be addressed (DUH!)
[09:22] {Threei}  - In recent months, deposits have been pulled from banks in countries including Italy and Spain. According to press releases, various large Spanish and Italian banks have had double-digit percentage drops in deposits from institutional clients.
[09:23] {Threei}  I could continue, but you get the picture
[09:23] {Threei}  rescuers, my a**
[09:27] {Threei}  opening volatility is likely to be nasty
[09:27] {Threei}  chart wise, FCX seems to be long with .10 break trigger
[09:27] {Threei}  but keep size smallish
[09:28] {Threei}  if loses 35, pullback to about .85 will be next area of interest
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break if stays above 35
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  come on already FCX
[09:33] {Threei}  you know you want 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 finally
[09:34] {dino} out fcx .23 ty vad, +.12
[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:34] {ese} just popping in to say hello.......have a conference call to deal with 8:00pm this morning
[09:35] {dino} we are leaving behind lots of upside gaps
[09:35] {Threei}  hey ese
[09:35] {ese} hey vad
[09:35] {Threei}  staying dry?
[09:35] {dino} have a happy thankgiving ese
[09:35] {ese} you as well dino
[09:35] {dino} thx
[09:35] {Threei}  you know we are closed tomrrow ese?
[09:35] {Threei}  you tend to miss those things :)
[09:35] {dino} this will be 6 down in row for s/p
[09:35] {ese} not yesterday......rode my bike to school and back
[09:36] {Threei}  ouch
[09:36] {dino} 7 of 8
[09:36] {Threei}  LVS
[09:36] {ese} ahhhh  tks for the info
[09:36] {Threei}  watching for long on pullback
[09:36] {Threei}  closed tomorrow, half day Fri
[09:36] {Threei}  .40 - .50 zone for LVS entry
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Euro bonds would be impossible without the backing of Germany
[09:39] {Threei}  - Comments on earlier German 10-year Bund auction (which technically failed): The difficulty of placing the issue is 'alarming'
[09:39] {ese} have a great thanksgiving all you south of the border types......cya monday
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) Germany BDB Banking Assoc: The EU Commission's euro bond proposal is not convincing
[09:39] {Threei}  - Opposes stricter bank stress tests.
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: HBC  .30 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop for scalpers .36, day traders .41
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS is coming there, don't be in a rush to jump in
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .36 for day traders too
[09:43] {thomcbell} with market uncertainty - this lvs is so overvalued
[09:43] {thomcbell} still 30 times or something like that
[09:43] {thomcbell} bananas
[09:43] {Threei}  true
[09:44] {Threei}  "this neurotic pursuit of sanity is driving us all bananas"
[09:44] {Threei}  thank you David Gerrold for neverending stock of quotes for all thinkable situations
[09:44] {dino} they either get a printing press or the euro is done in a month
[09:45] {Threei}  they won't dino... I am convinced of it more asnd more each next day
[09:45] {Threei}  they can't
[09:45] {dino} starting to lean that way too, germany is pretty much saying, f it
[09:46] {Threei}  yeah... and if Germany elites try to change this course, country will explode
[09:46] {Threei}  oh come on HBC
[09:47] {Threei}  surely you can do better than this
[09:47] {Threei}  Michigan confidence numbers at 9:55
[09:48] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:48] {Threei}  let's trial to .31
[09:48] {Threei}  trail
[09:48] {Threei}  (US) MOody's affirms US rating following super committee failure
[09:49] {Threei}  out
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[09:49] {dino} stop hbc -.02
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS invalidated
[09:51] {Threei}  no news for this sudden drop
[09:51] {thomcbell} qcom gap down another 0.40 cents - may look to buy the rinse down there
[09:51] {Threei}  LVS is a long on .20 break chart wise
[09:51] {Threei}  but we are 4 min from numbers
[09:52] {Threei}  and market jumps up and down like anthelope with turpentine up its butt
[09:54] {dino} qcom gap 52.24 fwiw
[09:54] {thomcbell} thanks
[09:54] {dino} also 50.15
[09:58] {Threei}  market looks like going for breakdown
[09:59] {Threei}  arrrgh
[09:59] {Threei}  just started typing TZA .40 break alert
[09:59] {Threei}  watch for pullback entry
[10:01] {Threei}  will be quick, be ready... entry around .50
[10:01] {dino} s/p oct gap 1155
[10:01] {RonS} es new lows
[10:01] {_optionman} test
[10:01] {Threei}  EUR/USD Pair moves below 1.3370 level electing small sell-stop orders
[10:02] {Threei}  Note the 1.3370 corresponds to a 6-week channel support line that has held numerous times over the past week
[10:03] {Threei}  prepare half lot TZA
[10:03] {Threei}  ideally it dives under .50 and gives us entry between .40 and .50
[10:03] {Threei}  if not, then .80 break is entry with higher risk
[10:04] {Threei}  if go for it, keep stop under .65
[10:06] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:06] {Threei}  indecisive market... hopefully pullback it is, don't really want to play break
[10:06] {Threei}  and pullback in TZA would help dino's QCOM
[10:07] {Threei}  nice entry
[10:07] {dino} lucky
[10:07] {Threei}  sure
[10:07] {Threei}  it's only bad luck that is universal... good luck is limited to some lucky individuals :)
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:10] {Threei}  ok... making up my mind
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:11] {Threei}  not a scalp
[10:11] {dino} qcom stop flat greed got me
[10:11] {Threei}  capable for about 40 cents movement
[10:11] {Threei}  3 partials
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:12] {Threei}  first part out .94
[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .75
[10:13] {Threei}  accompanying play would have been FCX .95 short but had no time t alert and would probably have no time to execute both
[10:13] {Threei}  try to exit second part TZA closer to 37.10
[10:14] {Threei}  stop to .79 btw
[10:14] {Threei}  here
[10:14] {Threei}  .05 out second part
[10:15] {Threei}  stop to .84
[10:15] {Threei}  and target for the last piece is around .20
[10:16] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:16] {Threei}  out
[10:16] {Threei}  +.39
[10:16] {dino} nice
[10:17] {Threei}  ty
[10:17] {Threei}  SPY long hesitance smelled of panic coming
[10:17] {thomcbell} market participants not to psyched about having exposure on turkety day
[10:17] {Threei}  no...
[10:17] {RonS} lol...Fitch downgraded Turkey the day before Thanksgiving.
[10:17] {Threei}  lol
[10:18] {Threei}  realization that this thing may unravel very very quickly starts sinking in
[10:19] {Threei}  andf this is the case where living through something of this kind comes very handy - witnessing USSR colllapse, one can appreciate unbelievable speed with which these things may happen
[10:19] {Threei}  wow... TZA had more momentum
[10:22] {Threei}  look at that pathetic disaster of an IPO
[10:22] {Threei}  GRPN of course
[10:30] {Threei}  are you breathing over there?
[10:31] {patience} over where
[10:31] {Threei}  wherevr you are
[10:32] {patience} barely, i have 2k shares of tza held overnight, still have it
[10:32] {Threei}  TZA had a dollar in it
[10:32] {thomcbell} qcom showing relative strength now - no setup yet
[10:33] {thomcbell} in last 5 minutes relative strength ;)
[10:34] {dino}  lng l .60
[10:35] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:35] {dino} gpor sm l .60
[10:37] {thomcbell} aapl some fight after nasty am
[10:37] {thomcbell} flat out nasty
[10:38] {thomcbell} still no valid setup here on qcom
[10:38] {thomcbell} but i like it
[10:38] {thomcbell} sm long
[10:38] {thomcbell} small long
[10:42] {dino} out gpor .89, +.29
[10:42] {Threei}  took any profits on QCOM?
[10:42] {dino} no, greed again
[10:42] {Threei}  awww
[10:42] {dino} wanted .30
[10:43] {Threei}  gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:43] {Threei}  nimble
[10:43] {Threei}  modest
[10:43] {dino} yeah, seeing thaty
[10:43] {thomcbell} i sold 1/2 0.27 and 1/4 at 0.15 other qtr at 0.09
[10:43] {Threei}  all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg thomc
[10:43] {dino} hard to do when trading sm size
[10:43] {dino} gj tbell
[10:44] {thomcbell} y i did some decent size - stopped in thru 51.76
[10:44] {thomcbell} 5k
[10:44] {Threei}  nice
[10:44] {Threei}  I hereby pronounce you ese the 2nd
[10:44] {thomcbell} still was risky due to lack of setup
[10:45] {thomcbell} no man's land here
[10:45] {_optionman} Will the room be open FridaY
[10:45] {Threei}  half day, yes
[10:45] {thomcbell} like 51.80 for a re-entry if it settles and forms something resembling a setup
[10:45] {Threei}  may be not very productive, but these days are so vilatile, might catch some nice plays
[10:45] {_optionman} Thanks
[10:46] {thomcbell} tape is very scary in my opinion
[10:47] {Threei}  for bulls, yeah
[10:47] {Threei}  bears lick their chops
[10:47] {Threei}  and chops of bulls they can catch and restrain
[10:49] {dino} sm l sohu .48
[10:50] {cipher} +.19 sohu thx dino
[10:51] {nemo} How goes the rat race?
[10:51] {thomcbell} qcom down on htc report apparently - but htc lost share to aapl and samsung who are both large qcom customers
[10:51] {RonS} McClellan at '09 lows...-100
[10:51] {thomcbell} which mcclellan
[10:51] {nemo} Scottish or Irish?
[10:51] {RonS} harvey
[10:51] {nemo} rabbit?
[10:52] {dino} out qcom .29, +.28
[10:52] {thomcbell} ratio adjusted etc
[10:52] {thomcbell} good dino
[10:52] {dino} ty
[10:52] {RonS} lol...didn't think of that ...just trying to be a smart ass
[10:52] {thomcbell} i think it gets up to 52.80
[10:52] {dino} with me out of course
[10:52] {thomcbell} although wouldnt bet my lunch sandwich on it
[10:53] {nemo} where's Vad?
[10:53] {dino} out sohu ave .80, +.32
[10:53] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:53] {nemo} ahhh
[10:53] {Threei}  am I that invisible?
[10:53] {dino} wtf sohu
[10:53] {nemo} I've been here for two minutes and you haven't acknowledged my presence
[10:54] {Threei}  well, to my jmustification, I mentioned you while you weren't here
[10:55] {nemo} thank you
[10:55] {cipher} qcom s .45
[10:55] {nemo} negatively I hope
[10:55] {nemo} got a reputation to maintain
[10:55] {Threei}  of course
[10:55] {dino} dds sm l .75
[10:55] {Threei}  wouldn't dream of insulting you by speaking well of you
[10:55] {nemo} now that's a true friend...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} nimble
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} modest
[10:56] {Threei}  10:43] {Threei} all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:56] {nemo} I'm all for nimble
[10:56] {dino} lol
[10:56] {nemo} Modest?
[10:56] {nemo} why should I be modest about my obnoxiousness?
[10:56] {Threei}  yes, but acknowldeging that would qualify as speaking well of you
[10:56] {thomcbell} Vad u ever read John Person's stuff?
[10:56] {nemo} No one brings it to the level of an artform like I do
[10:57] {Threei}  not only read... we held seminar together once
[10:57] {nemo} ahh, the doji trader
[10:57] {Threei}  well, he is much more than that
[10:57] {Threei}  but I did opick up that doji trick from him
[10:57] {nemo} yes, but that's one of his signature trades
[10:58] {thomcbell} yes the high close doji
[10:58] {Threei}, scroll down to Seminars,
[10:58] {thomcbell} on 15 minute
[10:58] {Threei}  second from top is the one
[10:58] {nemo} or high volume doji, take whichever way it goes
[10:58] {Threei}  he is very impressive trader and teacher, one of the best I've met
[10:58] {cipher} out qcom .19 +.26
[10:58] {thomcbell} y - i like his stuff - seems to fit in with a lot of stuff we do in here
[10:59] {dino} gj
[10:59] {cipher} thx
[10:59] {thomcbell} getting error message on that link
[10:59] {Threei}  hehe... it was a topic we stumbled onto while spoending time in LV... one would speak of something, another would remark something to the effect "exazctly the way I do it"
[11:00] {Threei}  make sure you copy without ,
[11:00] {Threei}
[11:00] {RonS} fwiw...this is the mcclellan mentioned:
[11:02] {RonS} wow, groupon offer for 60% off soap making...
[11:02] {RonS} ...and i thought god invented p&g for that...
[11:03] {nemo} can I tell a dirty joke?
[11:03] {Threei}  janitor is frowning
[11:06] {nemo} levels playing well so far, but looks like another low might be coming:
[11:08] {Threei}  HSBC Holdings PLC Chairman: Not assuming that a financial transaction tax (tobin) will occur in Europe; will oppose the measures
[11:10] {dino} feels like it wants 1155 gap
[11:11] {nemo} that's alotta gap
[11:11] {nemo} s3 is 116.86
[11:11] {nemo} you're at s3 on IWM as well as extended pivot support and price interesting to see how low they want to take it today
[11:12] {RonS} jef sm l .29
[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .25 break
[11:12] {thomcbell} so its unavailable to view Vad?
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[11:13] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 break
[11:13] {nemo} looks like it's trying a db here, but I'd prefer spy to get to .9o area
[11:13] {Threei}  what is thom?
[11:13] {Threei}  sorry, lost me
[11:13] {thomcbell} the john person seminar?
[11:14] {Threei}  oh
[11:14] {Threei}  there is no post-seminar site
[11:14] {thomcbell} which seminar - Las Vegas?
[11:14] {Threei}  right
[11:15] {nemo} IMO might consider a SPY/IWM long in this area...if spy drops .86, could go a ways
[11:15] {thomcbell} how about all those SLW buyers - frantically buying up near the 200 sma
[11:15] {Threei}  1:1
[11:15] {thomcbell} crazy
[11:16] {Threei}  that page lists seminars I gave or took part in, links exist to sites that contain some kind of post-seminar report, video, slideshow etc
[11:16] {Threei}  like two bahamas ones for instance
[11:18] {dino} lol, the name of the white house pardoned turkey was corzine
[11:18] {Threei}  rofl
[11:19] {nemo} he may not be that lucky
[11:19] {nemo} anybody take the trade?
[11:19] {cipher} l ibm .28
[11:20] {nemo} guess not
[11:20] {nemo} .05 stop for .25 so far
[11:21] {_nocki} .
[11:21] {nemo} thought it was gnocchi?
[11:22] {Threei}  nocki, feel free to slap him into oblivion with something rough-edged
[11:22] {RonS} ...and btw do you pronounce it like the 3 stooges would?
[11:22] {nemo} watch spy, it breaks here, maybe add to tna
[11:22] {Threei}  he appreciates good violence, both giving and taking
[11:23] {nemo} usually I don't get good...frickin' amateurs
06[11:23] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a bottle of vodka with rough edges
[11:23] {Threei}  like this
[11:23] {RonS} ...'specially for mistres von bunny...
[11:23] {RonS} mistress
06[11:24] * nemo slaps _nocki around a bit with a large cast iron bowl of pasta dough
[11:24] {nemo} crissakes Vad, don't break it and waste the vodka
[11:24] {Threei}  no way
[11:24] {cipher} out ibm .53 +.25
[11:25] {dino} gj
[11:25] {nemo} tza looking better here, out of tna
[11:25] {Threei}  I can't tell
[11:25] {nemo} actually, considering the day and time, it's likely to be a chop fest
[11:25] {Threei}  SPY can drop or bounce here with equal odds
[11:25] {Threei}  or chop around
[11:26] {nemo} I would think it will retrace to the .40 area vwap almost there, but...
[11:27] {nemo} oy,  sensitive
[11:29] {nemo} that was cute price action
[11:29] {Threei}  wow
[11:29] {Threei}  read this piece of cr*p
[11:29] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to move forward to the implementation of the ESM (permanent bailout facility), which is more robust than the EFSF as it is based on capital
[11:30] {Threei}  PERMANENT bailout facility
[11:30] {Threei}  they completely lost their mind in panic?
[11:30] {dino} lol, they are getting realistic
[11:30] {nemo} large central banks cannot let Keynesianism fail, else they lose their power
[11:31] {dino} govt cannot let deflation win or they fail
[11:31] {Threei}  (EU) Europe Banking Authority (EBA): Markets for medium- and long-term bank funding are frozen
[11:31] {Threei}  - Estimates that banks in Europe will need to refinance �700B for 2012
[11:31] {thomcbell} karl marx was 150 years early with manifesto - sorry Vad
[11:31] {dino} deflation=loss of all control
[11:31] {nemo} collapse of the banks
[11:31] {Threei}  lol thom
[11:32] {thomcbell} qcom a beast - angry growth investors fighting
[11:32] {Threei}  now, you remember the phrase: don't believe anything until it's officially denied?
[11:32] {Threei}  there:
[11:32] {Threei}  (AS) ECB's Nowotny: Fears of a downgrade of Austria's AAA rating are wildly exaggerated
[11:32] {thomcbell} u strip out the cash and blah blah blah
[11:32] {dino} me thinks he protest too much'
[11:35] {_nocki} having some internet problems, but nemo seem to like italian kitchen and is now hungry
[11:36] {Threei}  lol
[11:36] {Threei}  you'll fit right in...
[11:37] {Threei}  just don't forget to slap nemo once in a while, it keeps him motivated
[11:38] {dino} sks l .58
[11:39] {dino} ftk l .10
[11:39] {nemo} I like pain
[11:44] {Threei}  jellyfishy market here
[11:44] {Threei}  no clear direction
[11:44] {Threei}  waiting for something to shape up
[11:47] {nemo} lunch the Wednesday before Thanksgiving
[11:48] {Threei}  still, we should see more action today
[11:48] {Threei}  too much tension in the air
[11:53] {RonS} jef s/l to .49
[11:55] {Threei}  Election 2012: Generic Republican 46%, Obama 43%
[11:55] {Threei}  speaking of which... Ron Paul is killing me
[11:56] {Threei}  the most knowleadgeable man when it comes to economy, but when he opens his mouth on foreign policies, huge red sign "unelectable" fires up on his forehead
[11:59] {Threei}  notice how well SLW is doing while market essentially stalled
[12:03] {dino} cat sm l .06
[12:04] {RonS} jef stop to .59
[12:06] {RonS} out jef +.30
[12:06] {Threei}  wtg
[12:06] {RonS} ty
[12:07] {dino} gj
[12:09] {RonS} dino , you in lng?
[12:15] {dino} yes
[12:15] {dino} sorry was microwaving soup
[12:18] {RonS} dmnd v sm l .30
[12:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break
[12:30] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[12:32] {dino} out lng .71 +.11
[12:32] {RonS} gj...lng fighting a natty gas spike today imo...
[12:32] {dino} cat stop -.33
[12:33] {dino} ty took hours
[12:35] {patience} .
[12:44] {_nocki} VAD - in the morning you said "signs of technical bounce coming...- turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays". What kind of signs told you that?  And, you play FCX, SLW very often. Is there a special criteria, that you like them so much?
[12:44] {Threei}  FCX and SLW, well, the deal with them is this:
[12:45] {Threei}  for the last year at least we have a situation where market is unusually uniform,
[12:45] {Threei}  meaning, stocks have less individuality than normally, and majority of them move with market
[12:45] {Threei}  so we play a lot of those that reflect market well
[12:45] {Threei}  and those happen to be SLW, FCX, LVS
[12:46] {Threei}  and of course TZA/TNA. FAS/FAZ
[12:46] {_optionman} d
[12:46] {Threei}  this changes, we used to have different basket
[12:46] {Threei}  and I am sure it will change at some point again
[12:47] {Threei}  yesterday's morning sings were simply market starting to uptick ignoring the latest batch of bad news
[12:47] {Threei}  which is usually a sign of technical bounce coming while in severely oversold position
[12:47] {dino} gg sm l .01
[12:47] {Threei}  just look at daily... seriously overstretched to the downside
[12:48] {Threei}  not that I would be willing to be a hero and go against the trend
[12:48] {Threei}  but in our very small timeframe such bounces can be found and exploited
[12:48] {Threei}  do I make sense?
[12:48] {_nocki} Yes - in your course, do you so explain things like thqat?- market behavior and so on?
[12:49] {Threei}  most of them, yes
[12:49] {Threei}  they are just scattered all over
[12:49] {nemo} Techniques of Tape Reading alsom
[12:49] {dino} gld spike
[12:49] {Threei}  soe in TTR
[12:49] {Threei}  some in Taoist Trader
[12:51] {_nocki} so the new videocourse will be ready in one month, around christmas?
[12:51] {Threei}  I'd say, Taoist Trader is the most comprehensive in that regard
[12:51] {Threei}  that's what UI am aiming for, yes
[12:54] {dino} broke vwap
[12:56] {Threei}  while working on it, I am running into funny questions, like:
[12:56] {Threei}  cup and handle formation is a breakout,
[12:56] {Threei}  I have a play where we used break of the handle bottom to short
[12:56] {Threei}  so, do I place it in the chapter on C&H whoch is subset of breakouts, or do I place it in chapter on reversals?
[12:57] {RonS} latter imo
[12:57] {_nocki} because very often seems to me that the setups you choose are depending on market behaviour, so it means that you have to be able to read market behaviour to know which setup's at what time to choose. So, it seems to me that a person must have a lot of expaerience to be able to do that and it is not so easy to put it in practise
[12:58] {Threei}  well, that's true for any course and any method
[12:59] {Threei}  market and trading is not something that can be simplified to a few fast rules
[12:59] {Threei}  whatever educational skeleton you obtain, there is still a stage of practicing it and internalizing it
[12:59] {Threei}  which is what we do here
[13:00] {Threei}  just think of it as of any other profession
[13:00] {Threei}  you go over books, courses
[13:00] {Threei}  listen to professors
[13:00] {nemo} 10,000 frickin' hours
[13:00] {Threei}  but when you are done with colege course, you are not a polished professional yet, right?
[13:01] {Threei}  you star applying it in practice, under the watch of instructor
[13:01] {nemo} nope...just an arrogant no-nothing moron with  degree
[13:01] {Threei}  hehe
[13:01] {Threei}  and gradually all those learned bits and pieces start clicking together
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, usually by the third refill of the prozac prescription
[13:02] {Threei}  Ron... took me a while to juggle the options but eventually I decided to put it in C&H section, going by logic:
[13:02] {Threei}  the course is about visual pattern recognition,
[13:02] {Threei}  so it should be in C&H by chart formation sign,
[13:03] {Threei}  and HOW we play it - well, that's what analysis of each chart are for
[13:03] {Threei}  none of the ways is perfect, but this feels a bit more fitting to the course intention
[13:04] {_optionman} Happy thanksgiving all
[13:04] {Threei}  you too
[13:04] {RonS} cya om...
[13:05] {RonS} np 3i...maybe in 2nd edition you can focus on 2 sided setups...
[13:05] {Threei}  oh, there are a few of them
[13:06] {Threei}  overall, it turns out to be a fun course
[13:06] {Threei}  each play has not just a chart with explanations,
[13:06] {Threei}  it also has a link to corresponding day in trading log and quoted comments at the time
[13:06] {Threei}  so it's kind of time machine
[13:07] {Threei}  and each play is not "after the fact" analysis
[13:07] {Threei}  everything is actual, shows the thinking at the time
[13:07] {Threei}  and comments as play developed
[13:08] {Threei}  takes time to dig it all out, but it's fun
[13:09] {RonS} wow, never seen anything like this before:
[13:10] {RonS} dmnd capit ongoing
[13:10] {dino} suicide of accountant auditor
[13:12] {nemo} wow...nature is unkind
[13:14] {dino} out dds .17, +.42
[13:14] {RonS} gj
[13:14] {dino} thx
[13:17] {_nocki} thx vad
[13:18] {Threei}  not sure for what but you are welcome :)
[13:22] {cipher} scalped dmnd +.33 thx Ron
[13:22] {Threei}  nice
[13:23] {RonS} wow, and dino says he is lucky...
[13:23] {dino} :D
[13:27] {_nocki} so, how is it to understand: why you make yesterday a lot of good trades and on monday the most trades where not working? On what is in your opinion depending if trades are working, because youaddapt your setups to market behaviour, but can anyway have a bad day
[13:29] {dino} wag spike
[13:31] {dino} sm s .25
[13:31] {Threei}  well, look at it this way
[13:31] {Threei}  no matter how good you are, you WILL have losing trades and losing days,
[13:31] {Threei}  reason for this is:
[13:32] {Threei}  market is not a environment of certainties, it's enviroment of probailities
[13:32] {dino} cov wag .75, +.50
[13:32] {Threei}  it's being moved by people's emotions,
[13:32] {Threei}  and those are not 100% certain
[13:33] {RonS} nice wtg
[13:33] {dino} ty
[13:33] {Threei}  so, you go with oddsm,
[13:33] {Threei}  odds
[13:33] {Threei}  and adapt as market changes
[13:33] {Threei}  you will win over any statistically valid number of samples if your system is sound
[13:34] {Threei}  but you can never predict outcome of any given play
[13:35] {Threei}  that's why we have stops
[13:35] {Threei}  they limit your losses on those trades that don't work
[13:36] {Threei}  and allow you to structure the odds in your favor
[13:36] {dino} sm s wag .85
[13:36] {Threei}  try to trade without stops - however great you are you WILL go broke
[13:37] {Threei}  real traders know no one wins all the time, thus they cut their losses
[13:37] {RonS} cvs on the other side of wag...
[13:37] {Threei}  loud and proud idiots who think they can win every trade, well... they provide roadkills for the real traders
[13:41] {dino} wag bstop to b/e
[13:41] {dino} to .45
[13:41] {dino} cov +.40
[13:43] {_nocki} so you mean, it is everytime possible to read the market wrong for some trades or for some days, but if you are an experienced trader you will read the market in most cases right?
[13:43] {dino} out sks flat, doesn't move
[13:44] {dino} out ftk .15, +.05 doesn't move
[13:44] {Threei}  pretty much, yes
[13:45] {Threei}  and the surefire way to get killed for ANYONE is to start believeing that you can win every time
[13:45] {Threei}  because as soon as you start believing this, you start taking trades on so-so setups and stop applying stops
[13:51] {Threei}
[13:56] {RonS} es trying to challenge low again...
[14:19] {cipher} .
[14:20] {dino} !
[14:21] {dino} sohu sm l .41
[14:27] {dino} out sohu -.05
[14:32] {dino} sohu holding well
[14:33] {RonS} oh boy...Report of 6.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Japan
[14:36] {dino} sm l .50
[14:38] {RonS} More: Earthquake epicenter off coast of Fukishima, Japan, felt in Tokyo; no tsunami alert posted
[14:38] {dino} vrnt spike
[14:39] {patience} where is my uranium list
[14:40] {RonS} in your radioactive drawer?
[14:40] {patience} yup, where the chocolate is stored
[14:41] {RonS} lol
[14:42] {RonS} ye olde jellyfish market eh 3i?
[14:45] {dino} dji -900+ pts and 7.5% since 11/15
[14:46] {RonS} ...heard 11th time since 1960 that market down this day
[14:46] {dino} ndx -9.6%, s/p -8.8%
[14:46] {RonS} :O
[14:56] {RonS} dmnd short cover rally
[14:59] {RonS} guess not...$DMND moving via DealReporter story. P&G still interested in selling Pringles to $DMND.
[14:59] {dino} but can dmnd afford it now
[15:00] {RonS} ...if the credit markets were decent, probably
[15:02] {dino} 07 all green
[15:12] {RonS} guess 3i got into the turkey early and fell asleep...
[15:13] {RonS} stupid comment since the canadian thanksgiving was what, patience, a month ago?
[15:13] {Threei}  lol
[15:13] {Threei}  i wish
[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
[15:13] {Threei}  3 weeks
[15:14] {thomcbell} aapl 370.01  vad
[15:14] {thomcbell} not enuf consolidation?
[15:14] {Threei}  yeah, I don't like such entry
[15:17] {thomcbell} VAD i feel like we should put qcom in there with LVS FCX SLW and RIMM - liquid and moves now
[15:18] {Threei}  sounds right to me
[15:25] {dino} stop sohu -.31
[15:27] {Threei}  no direction... can't can a grip on the market to find one last play
[15:27] {Threei}  but trying
[15:28] {dino} gut call, down
[15:32] {Threei}  I wanted to aree, then realized - my gut says down for couple years already :)
[15:33] {Threei}  good thing I trade on setups, not on gut, lol
[15:33] {thomcbell} qcom buy if it gaps down on friday am
[15:34] {thomcbell} aapl too
[15:34] {Threei}  well... depends
[15:34] {Threei}  what is they gap down 30 cents, then on the open EU announces dissolution? :)
[15:35] {thomcbell} stop order
[15:49] {dino} sohu rinsed
[15:57] {Threei}  bulls are not very enthusiastic eh
[15:57] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all, have a great Thanksgiving dinner
[15:57] {Threei}  see you on Friday
[15:58] {thomcbell} take care fellas
[15:58] {patience} have a wonderful Thanksgiving
[15:58] {dino} thx all, have a happy and safe thanksgiving
[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {dino} rumors germans may go for euro bonds after their auction failed
[15:59] {Threei}  and I mean wow
[15:59] {Threei}  not exactly
[15:59] {Threei}  here is what they said:
[16:00] {Threei}  (GE) German press report suggests that German ruling coalition may be open to a euro zone bond in the future after Europe forges greater political and fiscal integration
[16:00] {Threei}  - REMINDER: German leadership has frequently noted that a joint euro bond is not a viable short term solution to the crisis but could be an option in the years to come after greater integration is achieved. Note that on 11/15, the German camp seemed to give some ground when Germany Govt Economic Advisor Bofinger ('wisemen') said its conceivable that the ECB should become backstop for bond markets if politics fail.
[16:00] {Threei}  in years eh? as if they have years
[16:00] {Threei}  anyway... no thinking allowed for the next 36 hours
[16:01] {dino} they may issue soon as stop gap, w/ideas in years towards integration
[16:02] {dino} i still lean towards the salvation thru inflation, but just slightly
[16:03] {patience} gov doesn't have a choice dino, inflation down the road.imo
[16:03] {Threei}  we are talking about Europe
[16:04] {Threei}  very different situation