Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Nov 29 2011

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Narrow and hectic day with no direction; flat day for us. Morning started with 3 stops in a row; then we were able to fix it and get a little bit in the black; then returned to flat and stayed there till the bell. Oh well.

Session Time: Tue Nov 29 00:00:00 2011
[08:59] {Threei}  The ECB this morning failed to attract enough deposits from banks to fully sterilize its market-stabilizing bond purchases. -HFE
[08:59] {Threei}  Italy 7.3%, Spain 6.45%, Belgium 5.4%.
[08:59] {Threei}  Ireland 9.2%, Portugal 12.9%, Greece 28.2%
[09:06] {patience} good morning
[09:06] {RonS} gm....file this in the something you will never hear about file:  http://tinyurl.com/cdbumea
[09:07] {Threei}  good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  huh?
[09:08] {Threei}  let me read it second time
[09:09] {dino} vad dcc
[09:11] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {Threei}  dino, we did unthinkable yesterday
[09:11] {Threei}  no, didn't finish off Euro... the other unthinkable
[09:12] {Threei}  profited on the big gap up day
[09:13] {dino} gj
[09:15] {Threei}  so Ron... did I get it right, if we cover whole planet with asphalt we will prevent global warming? {GGG}
[09:15] {swill} Good morning
[09:15] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:16] {Threei}  one comment under article:
[09:17] {Threei}  In a few years they�ll be announcing that Western excesses are depleting CO2 from the atmosphere which will cool the earth over the long term, ushering in a new ice age. It goes without saying that the only way to prevent this will be funneling tax money to political cronies.
[09:17] {Threei}  didn't we go through this already... global cooling, which was there before warming
[09:17] {RonS} yes...'60's Club of Rome report...
[09:17] {Threei}  why don't they say "ah just pay more taxes t prevent something, and don't make us make the theory up to justify that"
[09:20] {Threei}  quick update
[09:21] {Threei}  main course so to speak is about 2/3 done: open break, breakout and breakdown are fully finished,
[09:21] {Threei}  reversal is next
[09:21] {Threei}  should take about 7-10 days
[09:21] {Threei}  at which point I will need to decide to make a video part and release the wqhole thing,
[09:22] {Threei}  or release main part and add video in a couple weeks
[09:22] {swill} I'm excited
[09:22] {Threei}  will probably start making video to get a sense of how quick it can be done, then decide
[09:23] {Threei}  it comes out better than I even envisioned it swill
[09:23] {Threei}  as I write it, new ideas pop up, and make it richer
[09:23] {swill} wow
[09:24] {Threei}  just need to resist temptation to add too much theory to it, lol
[09:26] {ese} morning
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {Threei}  so, to sum up overnight events:
[09:28] {Threei}  Italy auction sold well, but the rate hit new high, and ECB couldn't sterilize the purchases aferwards
[09:28] {Threei}  what does it tell you?
[09:29] {RonS} that i don't know what sterilize means?
[09:29] {Threei}  oh
[09:29] {Threei}  central bank that isn't supposed to be a holder of certain assets, may buy them as "bridge the gap" measure,
[09:30] {Threei}  to sell to those who are asup;posed to be holders of it,
[09:30] {RonS} inhx
[09:30] {dino} printing press
[09:30] {Threei}  such sell streilizes the purchase, taking the assets of central bank sheet
[09:30] {Threei}  if they can't streilize it, it remains on their sheet
[09:31] {Threei}  which is not good
[09:32] {Threei}  looking for short into bounce
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW between .40 - .50, and FCX above .20
[09:34] {Threei}  while we wait, to finish the premarket question: it tells us that that "success" of auction was nothing more than ECB trying to soak up supply; absence of real demand is illustrated by the fact that they couldn't sterilize it afterwards
[09:34] {Threei}  no decent bounces so far
[09:35] {dino} if you don't sterilize, it is defactor increase in supply, inflate
[09:35] {Threei}  if you can print that is...
[09:35] {Threei}  but ECB can't
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:36] {dino} watch what they do, not what they say
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX is valid again
[09:38] {Threei}  stop for scalpers .91, day traders .96
[09:39] {Threei}  SLW, .10 invalidated, looking for original setup
[09:39] {Threei}  between .20 and .30
[09:40] {Threei}  not sure yet
[09:40] {thomcbell} lvs has fight
[09:41] {thomcbell} as does qcom
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  QCOM  .10 break
[09:43] {dino} dds sm l .75
[09:43] {thomcbell} ups strong
[09:43] {Threei}  stop under 54
[09:44] {thomcbell} wow ups
[09:45] {Threei}  QCOM is a nervous trader
[09:47] {thomcbell} crude strong
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX no worky
[09:48] {Threei}  nor QCOM
[09:49] {thomcbell} no
[09:49] {Threei}  the pnly thing that more or less shows direction is SLW
[09:50] {Threei}  let's see if it gives us pullback for long
[09:50] {thomcbell} yes angry slw buyers back
[09:50] {Threei}  but the way it trades, entry should be under .50
[09:51] {thomcbell} everything very thin - obviously
[09:52] {thomcbell} fcx getting frisky too
[09:55] {Threei}  no pullback so far SLW
[09:55] {Threei}  SPY weakens
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays under .80 of course
[09:55] {Threei}  taregt 1:3
[09:56] {dino} out qcom .31, +.20, thx for idea
[09:56] {Threei}  nice... didn't let them shake you out?
[09:56] {dino} nope, was at .97
[09:58] {Threei}  every trade is teeth pulling so far... total opposite of yesterday
[09:58] {Threei}  I think it's nemo's fault
[10:00] {ese} definitely
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 56.0 V 44.0E
[10:00] {Threei}  yikes
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.9% V -0.1%E
[10:01] {Threei}  double wammy
[10:02] {dino} wow
[10:06] {thomcbell} no lvs and wynn weak
[10:06] {thomcbell} now
[10:07] {Threei}  no pattern to these waves
[10:07] {dino} dds stop -.26
[10:10] {Threei}  what's with these bouts of buying and selling out of nowhere
[10:10] {thomcbell} fdx
[10:11] {thomcbell} just exploded
[10:11] {thomcbell} nice opening range breakout there
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  34 break half lot
[10:14] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[10:14] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break half lot
[10:16] {Threei}  little cangaroo tail
[10:16] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:19] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:20] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[10:20] {Threei}  weaker thah SPY
[10:20] {Threei}  first candidate to try for reversal
[10:21] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:21] {dino} ayi spike
[10:22] {Threei}  if SLW works, normal patterns start returning
[10:22] {Threei}  if not, then I am havuing one of those days
[10:22] {Threei}  you know... when you can't trade your way out of wet paper bag
[10:23] {swill} I got a scalp
[10:23] {Threei}  can't blame you
[10:23] {Threei}  but I will press for a trade as planned
[10:24] {Threei}  SLW is temptingly weak vs market
[10:25] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {Threei}  half out, stop to .81
[10:25] {dino} ayicov slw .72, +.07
[10:27] {thomcbell} i fmarket weakens - LVS short
[10:29] {dino} lnkd drop
[10:29] {dino} slxp spike
[10:29] {Threei}  1:2
[10:29] {Threei}  1/4 out, stop to .71
[10:30] {Threei}  no thinking, autopilot
[10:30] {dino} ayi sm s .09 bstop .26
[10:32] {cipher} +.36 lnkd thx dino
[10:32] {Threei}  1:3
[10:32] {Threei}  out
[10:32] {Threei}  +.28
[10:33] {swill} wtg
[10:33] {Threei}  day is not fully fixed yet but very close to breakeven
[10:33] {Threei}  and ego is not as bruised by wet paper bag
[10:33] {RonS} dds sm l .08
[10:33] {Threei}  I mean come on... if it were plastic, fine... but wet paper?
[10:35] {dino} cov ayi .76, +.33
[10:35] {Threei}  wtg
[10:36] {dino} ty
[10:36] {Threei}  nice on LNKD cipher... sorry, was submerged in SLW management at the time
[10:36] {dino} np and gj cipher
[10:37] {thomcbell} good slw vad
[10:37] {thomcbell} perfect trade for a day like this
[10:38] {Threei}  ty
[10:38] {Threei}  needed that top wrk, to restore my faith in humanity
[10:39] {Threei}  just don't tell nemo I have faith in it, he will stop talking to me for a week
[10:39] {thomcbell} very good
[10:40] {swill} unfortunatly will miss the fun.  need to go driving
[10:40] {Threei}  that's OK{ markert will still be there when you are back
[10:41] {Threei}  not sure about EU though
[10:41] {Threei}  or BAC
[10:41] {Threei}  or GRPN
[10:41] {Threei}  or my typing skills
[10:41] {swill} lol
[10:41] {Threei}  wait, that's gone long ago
[10:54] {Threei}  look at SLW
[10:55] {Threei}  what a disproprtional move
[10:55] {Threei}  shows the right indentification of the short candidate
[11:03] {thomcbell} fcx 36.30 break Vad
[11:04] {Threei}  .35
[11:05] {Threei}  with .45 resistance
[11:06] {thomcbell} oh lvs
[11:07] {Threei}  .90 eas it on LVS
[11:07] {Threei}  was
[11:07] {thomcbell} slw disgusting
[11:07] {Threei}  missed it
[11:07] {Threei}  FCX works
[11:07] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {Threei}  back in black
[11:08] {Threei}  not much but hey.. better than pke in the eye
[11:08] {Threei}  in a form of three stops in the morning'
[11:08] {dino}  cov fcx .23, +.11 ty vad
[11:09] {Threei}  sharing credits with tbell
[11:13] {thomcbell} slw on long radar vad or is it refuse?
[11:14] {Threei}  hard to tell
[11:15] {Threei}  chart forms reversal,
[11:15] {Threei}  but its general wekaness is a concern
[11:19] {Threei}  FCX is better reversal candidate, IMO
[11:19] {Threei}  let's see if it dives to .40
[11:19] {Threei}  should be a long there
[11:19] {Threei}  for move to about .60
[11:21] {Threei}  compare charts FCX and SLW
[11:21] {Threei}  see how exaggerated SLW drop is vs FCX?
[11:21] {Threei}  over last 5 min I measn
[11:29] {Threei}  .42-.43 was the best FCX could do on a pullback
[11:30] {Threei}  tough to cath an entry... but look how the idea worked
[11:34] {thomcbell} slw 32.10 entry
[11:34] {thomcbell} long
[11:34] {thomcbell} target 2:1
[11:35] {Threei}  chart is right
[11:35] {dino} gj
[11:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[11:42] {Threei}  don't like the SPY look
[11:44] {Threei}  Herman Cain tells senior staff that he is reassessing whether to remain in presidential race
[11:44] {Threei}  what to assess, you are done
[11:48] {Threei}  scratching FCX
[11:48] {Threei}  out -.04
[11:49] {Threei}  may work, may not - I lost a read on it
[11:49] {RonS} heh, better warn ese:  http://tinyurl.com/c32awd8
[11:52] {Threei}  good idea on FCX exit
[11:52] {Threei}  btw Ron
[11:53] {Threei}  you are still in waiting mode on that tablet?
[11:53] {RonS} yes...want version 10
[11:53] {Threei}  10?
[11:53] {Threei}  what's that? :)
[11:54] {Threei}  just wanted to give you an update... on one side, Transformer Prime is being released in a week or so,
[11:54] {Threei}  on another, Acer and Lenovo announced tablets based on this newest Nvidia processor in Q1,
[11:54] {Threei}  which means price war is likely to start
[11:55] {Threei}  so... if you are not in a rush, probably makes sense to give it couple months
[12:12] {thomcbell} no setup but qcom on short radar hree
[12:14] {ese} no....ese is still here.....he just has no life this year ....outta here cya all tomorrow
[12:14] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:15] {ese} cya
[12:22] {thomcbell} shorted qcom 53.60 half lot
[12:26] {dino}   dds sm l .40
[12:30] {thomcbell} covering qcom
[12:30] {thomcbell} essentially flat
[12:30] {Threei}  yeah, tough one
[12:30] {thomcbell} too much of a coin flip
[12:30] {Threei}  .60 break occurred with no consolidation
[12:31] {Threei}  not liking this kind
[12:31] {thomcbell} right i was aware that was why half lot
[12:31] {thomcbell} thanks for pointing it out
[12:34] {dino} dds stop -.15
[12:39] {RonS} lol...Forget the Presidency, I'm running for Herman Cain!
[12:40] {dino} rinsed dds
[12:44] {thomcbell} duh qcom
[12:45] {thomcbell} BIG very strong during this market pullback
[12:46] {Threei}  I'd go for .95 break
[12:56] {thomcbell} im waiting but watching it closely
[12:57] {Threei}  SPY feels like ready for upward move
[12:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[12:58] {thomcbell} bought BIG herre
[12:58] {Threei}  beat ya by coupla cents
[12:58] {Threei}  in from .96
[13:00] {cipher} me too .96 :)
[13:00] {Threei}  so far behaves well
[13:01] {Threei}  not so sure about FCX
[13:01] {thomcbell} fcx tradeing well though
[13:05] {Threei}  out FCX
[13:07] {Threei}  BIG 1:1
[13:07] {Threei}  wow
[13:07] {Threei}  did it wait for me to say that?
[13:08] {thomcbell} i was just about to say we have to put this one on the buy list for tomorrow
[13:08] {thomcbell} wow slw looks very shaky here
[13:22] {dino}  bsft sm l .05
[13:22] {cipher} l ibm .31
[13:25] {cipher} out +.25 partial
[13:26] {Threei}  nice
[13:26] {dino} gj
[13:31] {cipher} stopped +.14 on the rest
[13:40] {dino} out bsft .30 ave, +.25
[13:43] {Threei}  lol, where do you guys find these plays
[13:44] {Threei}  when market is paralyzed like this I got nothing
[13:52] {Threei}  hmm
[13:52] {Threei}  no news
[13:53] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO's Bill Gross December Monthly Outlook: Family Feud
[13:53] {Threei}  - Investors should recognize that Eurolands problems are global and secular in nature; it will be years before Euroland and developed nations in total can constructively escape from their straitjacket of debt.
[13:53] {Threei}  - Global growth will likely remain stunted, interest rates artificially low and investors continually disenchanted with returns that fail to match expectations.
[13:53] {Threei}  - Investors should consider risk assets in emerging economies, such as Brazil and Asia, and bonds in the strongest developed economies, where the steep yield curve may offer opportunities for capital gains and potentially higher total returns.
[13:55] {dino} pivot 119.58
[14:14] {Threei}  EU document on EFSF is out'
[14:14] {Threei}  let me sort through it, just a few sec
[14:15] {Threei}  (EU) EFSF to set up more than one fund; May be leveraged at 2-3 times (in line with ests by Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden reported earlier today); guarantee losses of 20-30% - financial press
[14:15] {Threei}  - Final document to be unveiled later tonight.
[14:15] {Threei}  - NOTE: Also earlier today:
[14:15] {Threei}  - France Fin Min Baroin: Still trying to get the EFSF leverage to reach �1.0T - ecofin meeting
[14:15] {Threei}  - Spain Fin Min: the EFSF program maximum has yet to be determined, should make EFSF as large as possible.
[14:15] {Threei}  - Belgium Fin Min Reynders: EFSF capacity needs to be increased; will discuss possibility of ECB lending to IMF but the final decision will be with the ECB.
[14:15] {Threei}  Nov 27th:
[14:15] {Threei}  - (EU) New rules draft for the EFSF; Will allow for intervention on the primary and secondary bond markets and will offer partial protection of as much as 30% to investors - financial press
[14:15] {Threei}  - EFSF to keep a buffer of �10B "to provide EFSF with the necessary flexibility to carry out the new funding requirements through the issuance of short-term instruments".
[14:15] {Threei}  - Partial protection to those buying a country's bond in around 20-30% of the bond's principal amount.
[14:16] {Threei}  market isn't terribly impressed
[14:23] {Threei}  you know the worst thing about GRPN?
[14:23] {Threei}  it's that we can't shirt it
[14:23] {Threei}  short
[14:29] {dino}  y
[14:43] {dino}    wbmd spike
[14:44] {dino} sm s .12
[14:45] {dino} stop
[14:46] {RonS} $WBMD exploring sales process .....
[14:46] {dino} thx
[14:46] {RonS} street.com
[14:46] {Threei}  hired CS as advisor
[14:46] {Threei}  nt confirmed
[14:46] {Threei}  "chatter"
[14:49] {Threei}  Fitch warns of U.S. downgrade if no budget deal in 2013
[14:56] {Threei}  Paulson letter to clients, apologizing for fund performance
[14:56] {Threei}  worst year in history
[14:56] {Threei}  they understimated thre depth of EU crisis
[14:57] {Threei}  maybe membership in RT room could have helped with that
[14:57] {dino} lol
[14:58] {Threei}  really, amazes me
[14:58] {Threei}  so many pundits thought it was nothing to worry about
[14:59] {Threei}  when it was so clearly major threat, not to be dismissed and impossible to fix easy
[15:02] {dino} wbmd sm s .75
[15:04] {dino} cov .45, +.30
[15:04] {dino} too soon
[15:07] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/45480363
[15:09] {Threei}  just proves... no one is getting it right every time
[15:09] {Threei}  although this part makes me wonder...
[15:09] {Threei}  Paulson is confident that �many of our position will recover as fear subsides.�
[15:09] {Threei}  ummm
[15:10] {Threei}  and what if instead of that EUjust breaks apart?
[15:14] {RonS} Leon lays it out:  http://tinyurl.com/7of957d
[15:14] {Threei}  Fithc just said France is under threat of downgrade
[15:15] {Threei}  market nodded and spiked
[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break half lot
[15:19] {Threei}  if stasys above .50
[15:21] {Threei}  good one Ron
[15:23] {Threei}  valid still TNA
[15:24] {dino} good letter
[15:26] {Threei}  invalidated now
[15:35] {Threei}  gosh... I just turned CNBC on and first time in years saw maria... what happened to her
[15:36] {RonS} wish nemo was here to comment...
[15:36] {Threei}  I wouldn't have asked then :)
[15:36] {RonS} lol
[15:36] {Threei}  hectic up and down, no pattern
[15:36] {Threei}  market is seriously confused
[15:37] {Threei}  (EU) German and French Fin Mins: we respect ECB independence, ECB Pres Draghi will have to decide what is best for the ECB
[15:37] {Threei}  narrow day with no direction... empty day for me
[15:37] {Threei}  was able to fix morning damage but that's about all
[15:49] {Threei}  market can;'t even decide what to do on last minutes
[15:50] {Threei}  tesion in the airt is so thick, you can cut it with knife
[15:50] {Threei}  fear to be long into collapse... fear to be felt out if "solution" is announced
[15:51] {Threei}  which fear takes over
[15:51] {RonS} what happened to maria:  http://tinyurl.com/6vxlxca
[15:51] {Threei}  oh god
[15:52] {Threei}  why did you do this to me
[15:52] {RonS} what?
[15:52] {Threei}  can't see them like this :)
[15:53] {Threei}  fear of collapse takes over
[15:53] {Threei}  I want back in the world where no one is above 30
[15:54] {RonS} uh, that ship has sailed...
[15:54] {Threei}  two things about my friends
[15:54] {Threei}  one, they get older and older every time I see them, but that would be fine if not second
[15:54] {Threei}  which is: their eyesight is going... they think it's ME who is getting older
[15:56] {patience} ty vad, day is done for me, no trades yesterday or today...last week took a lot of energy out of me   :)
[15:56] {Threei}  yesterday was good...
[15:57] {Threei}  today, nothing aligned rtight
[15:57] {Threei}  well, something did but was balanced out by what didn't
[15:58] {dino} done here too, ok day, thx for ideas
[15:58] {Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
[15:58] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:58] {patience} correction, i did buy mnt.to   the royal canadian mint bullion trade which started today....tucked some away in my long term account