Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Nov 09 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Very nice day, with only regret being about one of trades that moved to 1:12 after we exited for 1:3... oh well. Here it is:

...and then:

and then even more. OK, one more thing for you to have in mind, possibly forming on daily:

Session Time: Wed Nov 09 00:00:00 2011

[08:43] {Threei}  wow
[08:44] {Threei}  (EU) Hearing vague chatter of an emergency ECB meeting (update)
[08:45] {Threei}  - European shares dropped in today's session due to alarmingly high Italian yields
[08:45] {Threei}  Have Market Intel? Tip Line -} Click Here
[08:45] {Threei}  huh... as if it wasn't obvious that they were rising like crazy
[08:46] {Threei}  next phrase is golden:
[08:46] {Threei}  News that Italian PM Berlusconi will resign after failing to obtain the majority in yesterday's vote was welcomed by bourses worldwide. But as the wind of change is felt throughout Europe, investors realize that the next successor of Berlusconi or Papandreou may still not be able to solve the domestic fiscal situation.
[08:46] {Threei}  what, people really thought it was just a problem with one particular PM?
[08:46] {Threei}  change him and we a-okay?
[09:12] {dino} gm all
[09:12] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {RonS} good morning everyone...Italian-German 10-year bond spread is now at 551-bps. Portugal, Ireland and Greece all asked for help after their spread went over 500-bps.
[09:14] {Threei}
[09:14] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:17] {RonS} man bites dog?...Volcker Calls Volcker Rule Too Complicated
[09:17] {Threei}  rofl
[09:23] {RonS} wow...soda has 46% float short
[09:25] {dino}  wtw
[09:25] {Threei}  WTW was a moonshot after earnings yesterday
[09:25] {Threei}  not so much today
[09:27] {nemo} oy vay
[09:28] {Threei}  right
[09:28] {dino} saw that
[09:28] {Threei}  great surprise nemo...
[09:28] {nemo} saw what?
[09:28] {dino} may e a long today at some point
[09:28] {dino} be
[09:28] {Threei}  Italy is blowing up
[09:28] {ese} morning all........just popping in to say hi and am outta here...will not be around tomorrow either with remembrance day ceremonies .......have a couple of great trading days and we'll see you monday
[09:28] {Threei}  no one suspected that just yesterday
[09:28] {dino} wtw nemo
[09:28] {nemo} a call from the relatives
[09:28] {Threei}  hi ese
[09:28] {dino} cya ese
[09:28] {ese} take care all......smokin busy days here
[09:29] {Threei}  take care ese
[09:29] {Threei}  OK guys
[09:29] {Threei}  let's skip first minutes
[09:29] {Threei}  no need to be ahero
[09:29] {Threei}  looking for short entries oln usual suspects
[09:29] {ese} will have some interesting news for you possibly next week though about my high school rhythm and blues band
[09:29] {nemo} there are old pilots...
[09:29] {Threei}  right
[09:29] {ese} cya
[09:30] {RonS} cya ese...good to cya nemo
[09:30] {nemo} thought I'd pass through
[09:30] {dino} same
[09:30] {dino} take care nemo
[09:31] {nemo} yeah, been copying charts for updates, amazing on spy and iwm, they just keep inflecting at mapped levels.  If only I had an account...
[09:31] {nemo} btw....iwm at a price level I mapped and SPY at s2 daily
[09:31] {dino} 11657, 2298, 1218 gaps below
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FXCX  .40 break
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:34] {Threei}  uhhu
[09:34] {Threei}  lol
[09:35] {nemo} here's IWM SPY for today:
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[09:37] {Threei}  valid
[09:38] {Threei}  .72 stop
[09:38] {Threei}  no go
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .35 break
[09:41] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:42] {dino} vsm l wtw .35 gappy risky
[09:43] {Threei}  ugh
[09:43] {Threei}  .20 on LVS was nice trigger, cangaroo tail
[09:44] {Threei}  let's see may be pullback gives entry
[09:44] {Threei}  no
[09:44] {Threei}  a bit too hectic, no patterns
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:46] {RonS} FLASH: Margin Requirements Raised on Italian Bonds
[09:47] {Threei}  stop above .50
[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:4
[09:48] {Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  stop to .45 for the balance
[09:48] {dino} rovi vsm l .50 wide/risky
[09:49] {dino} out .05, +.55
[09:49] {Threei}  wtg
[09:49] {dino} ty
[09:50] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:50] {pragmatic} ty
[09:50] {Threei}  lemme guess... scalper?
06[09:50] * pragmatic :)
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .35 break
[09:51] {Threei}  stop above .45
[09:52] {Threei}  OK, this one surely must capable of more than scalp
[09:53] {Threei}  if works at all of course
[09:53] {Threei}  but it looks to me like 40 and below
[09:54] {Threei}  and market overall feels to me like panic coming
[09:54] {Threei}  where is larisa btw
[09:54] {Threei}  1:1
[09:54] {Threei}  she would kill me for using that word
[09:55] {Threei}  1:2
[09:55] {Threei}  stop to .31 for the balance
[09:56] {Threei}  closed
[09:57] {pragmatic} cangaroo tail?
[09:57] {Threei}  kind of... somewhat ugly cangaroo
[09:57] {nemo} know alot of kangaroos do ya?
[09:58] {Threei}  must admit, not so much
[09:58] {nemo} I'm partial to the Big Reds myself
[09:58] {Threei}  rare animal in my neck of the woods
[09:58] {pragmatic} they... jump..sometimes :)
[10:02] {dino} adbe smr l .91
[10:11] {patience} good morning
[10:11] {Threei}  patience :)
[10:15] {dino} out wtw .45, +1.10
[10:16] {dino} nxpi sm l .80
[10:16] {patience} very nice dino
[10:16] {dino} thx patience
[10:21] {dino} hos smr l .95
[10:28] {Threei}
[10:36] {dino} lod
[10:39] {Threei}  (IT) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Not concerned about spreads in Italy debt; are similar to pre Euro period- Calls on Italy to accept EFSF assistance if deemed necessary
[10:39] {Threei}  lol
[10:39] {dino} start the printing presses
[10:41] {Threei}  no
[10:41] {Threei}  not going to happen in EU
[10:41] {Threei}  they have no structure for it
[10:42] {Threei}  rthey are done, out a fork in them
[10:42] {Threei}  put
[10:43] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Pres: emergency measures could be put in place at any time if needed
[10:43] {Threei}  - Napolitano says the austerity bill will be passed within days; a new Govt can be formed quickly, not expecting a prolonged political battle.
[10:44] {Threei}  I can see this already
[10:44] {Threei}  they pass it
[10:44] {Threei}  market sighs with relief
[10:44] {Threei}  stocks rally (or gap up)
[10:44] {Threei}  bonds shrug and continue rising
[10:44] {Threei}  yeilds that is
[10:44] {dino} yes
[10:44] {Threei}  in a few days realization hits again:
[10:44] {Threei}  there is nothing they can do
[10:45] {Threei}  rearranging chairs on the Titanic deck
[10:45] {dino} there are two options, 1) to increase the amount of euros, or 2) default
[10:46] {Threei}  they have no easy way for 1
[10:46] {Threei}  their structure doesn't allow it without huge remaking
[10:46] {dino} i believe default will happen, but not until they try tp inflate it away
[10:47] {Threei}  and that remaking is politically almost impossible
[10:47] {patience} i agree dino
[10:47] {dino} the structure can be changed, they are changing everything right now
[10:47] {Threei}  as it requires sovereign countries to give up their sovereignity
[10:47] {Threei}  no dino... not this
[10:47] {Threei}  it's too big
[10:47] {patience} they need some time for those with wealth to move it out
[10:47] {Threei}  they will try of course
[10:47] {Threei}  but they won't succeed
[10:48] {dino} perhaps, but never underestimate the welfare state, they do not want austerity
[10:48] {Threei}  "You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality."
[10:49] {dino} in the end it all comes down to germany. if they say "f 'em", the jig is up
[10:49] {Threei}  well, even if they don't...
[10:50] {Threei}  even Germany is not big enough to bail whole EU
[10:50] {Threei}  not even speaking of lack of political will to do so
[10:50] {dino} good point patience, on time to move
[10:50] {Threei}  and hoi poloi taking on the streets
[10:50] {dino} out hos +.30
[10:51] {dino} 3i, you miss one thing, by inflating the money supply, germany does not have to be big enough
[10:52] {Threei}  I don'tr... I cover it in "lack of political will" line :)
[10:52] {Threei}  the problem is in sovereignity - factor we don't have here in US
[10:52] {dino} either way, we agree on one thing, in the end it's over for the euro
[10:52] {Threei}  oh yes
[10:53] {dino} just a matter of time, next month or next 18 months
[10:53] {Threei}  impossibkle to say, really.. buit my eperience with observing USSR collapse makes me think,. it will happen much sooner than anyone expects
[10:53] {patience} just finished reading   some interesting similarities although i don't see hyper inflation for us
[10:54] {dino} i read that in sept. patience, a very good book
[10:55] {patience} i thought so
[10:55] {dino} imo, the europe will keep the hyper inflation away from usa
[10:55] {Threei}  can I borrow your copy?
[10:56] {Threei}  my view too dino
[10:56] {patience} pdf available on the web
[10:56] {Threei}  USD is about to become in high demand
[10:56] {dino} yes
[10:57] {nemo} break up of the euro will put $, yen, and maybe remnimbi in demand
[10:59] {nemo} mmmhhh....if $ in much greater demand, exports become a problem, gives Bernanke room to print more money
[11:01] {dino} reverse that nemo, us companies will go on a buying binge
[11:01] {nemo} that's true, they could if legislators don't confiscate there money
[11:01] {nemo} may you live in interesting times
[11:01] {dino} lol, i believe we are
[11:01] {nemo} so, politically, it may be smarter to print money
[11:02] {nemo} economically, it may be smarter to let us take over the world again
[11:02] {nemo} I'll go with the former
[11:02] {dino} "in the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity"
[11:02] {nemo} Politicians always backdoor the dog
[11:02] {RonS} lol
[11:02] {nemo} you know what the chinese character for trouble and turmoil is?
[11:02] {nemo} two women under the same roof
[11:03] {RonS} amos & andy
[11:03] {patience} opportunity
[11:03] {dino} poli tics= many bloodsuckers
[11:03] {Threei}  lol
[11:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .55 break
[11:04] {Threei}  if hiolding above .45
[11:04] {Threei}  target .80
[11:04] {nemo} nice vwap at .48 s2 support at .43
[11:08] {Threei}  1:1
[11:10] {RonS} +.12  thanks 3i
[11:10] {Threei}  :)
[11:15] {dino} nemo, on the vwap charts are you using "today" or "1d"?
[11:18] {nemo} freestockcharts only has one setting.  I don't know what it's using.  It uses market open data only though
[11:18] {dino} mine has 10, on bottom of chart
[11:19] {nemo} FSC or your software?
[11:20] {dino} fsc
[11:20] {Threei}  target hit
[11:20] {Threei}  out FCX
[11:20] {Threei}  boy, am I good or what
[11:20] {dino} gj
[11:20] {dino} adbe to .21
[11:20] {Threei}  oops... dislocated my shoulder patting myself on the back
[11:20] {nemo} go ahea, tempt the trading gods
[11:20] {Threei}  hehe
[11:22] {dino} to .33
[11:22] {dino} out adbe .33, +.42
[11:22] {Threei}  wtg
[11:23] {dino} ty
[11:24] {dino} nxpi dog, stop is .68, brb
[11:31] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  47 break
[11:31] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[11:36] {Threei}  no go
[11:48] {Threei}  look SPY daily
[11:48] {Threei}  possibly double top forming
[11:48] {Threei}  first top 10/27-28
[11:48] {Threei}  second yesterday
[11:49] {Threei}  loss of 121.50 is confirmation
[11:49] {Threei}  let me grab a screenshot to illustrarte
[11:55] {Threei}
[11:55] {Threei}  nemo, interesting how those levels correcpond with your pivots
[11:57] {dino} nxpi to flat
[12:14] {dino}  markets have stopped moving
[12:15] {Threei}  I can relate
[12:15] {Threei}  I am doing my share to fight enthropy too, by moving as little as possible
[12:15] {Threei}  Milton Friedman, 1997:
[12:16] {Threei}  euro would make conflict more, not less, likely.
[12:16] {Threei}  The continent's many borders and diverse cultures make a single currency unit unfeasible, as Europeans are more dependent on their own country rather than the ``common market or the idea of ``Europe.'' The introduction of the euro would turn economic shocks into political conflict, Friedman said.
[12:16] {nemo} I remember having this conversation in grad school back in the 80's just took a little longer
[12:17] {Threei}  which? about enthropy?
[12:17] {nemo} euro and on those pivot retracement coincidences, yeah, all the time
[12:18] {nemo} we're basically at the weekly pivot area...funny how that works
[12:25] {dino} out nxpi .90, +.10
[12:26] {Threei}  - Fear is intensifying this morning as the euro zone's worst nightmare appears to be coming true: contagion is overtaking Italy. The yield on 10-year Italian government debt are surging to almost 7.5%
[12:26] {Threei}  duh
[12:27] {dino} feels like a re-test of lows in the making
[12:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[12:32] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[12:46] {Threei}  let's trail to .16
[12:47] {dino} gj
[12:47] {Threei}  not yet
[12:47] {dino} opps, wrong stock
[12:47] {Threei}  just tightening risk
[12:52] {RonS} for nemo...FINRA Allowed Corzine to Practice Without Series 7, 24 Licenses
[12:52] {nemo} huh?
[12:54] {RonS} FLASH: Italian 10 Yr Yields Are Coming In
[12:54] {RonS} Now at 7.06%, down from 7.6%. It appears there is some intervention underway
[12:55] {Threei}  so someone is buying them to relieve the pressure?
[12:55] {Threei}  can you say another MF in the making?
[12:57] {dino} thinking govts
[12:57] {Threei}  well, idiots never learn
[12:57] {Threei}  actually, that's what makes them idiots
[12:58] {RonS} lol...juncker says there will never be a euro without portugal
[12:58] {RonS} everyone knows it is the center of the universe after all...
[12:58] {Threei}  lookie here
[12:59] {Threei}  (EU) French and German leaders are said to be having preliminary discussions for a radical overhaul of the euro zone - financial press
[12:59] {Threei}  - The preliminiary discussions are at an "intellectual" level that have not progressed to any kind of technical plans.
[12:59] {Threei}  - The plans envision a "core" euro zone with more economic integration, with the possibility that one or more members would depart from the EMU.
[13:01] {Threei}  I like this "intellectual" level
[13:03] {dino} hos l .95
[13:10] {Threei}  1:1
[13:11] {dino}  gj
[13:11] {Threei}  ty
[13:13] {Threei}  1:2
[13:14] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[13:14] {thomcbell} Nice Vad
[13:15] {Threei}  really need to watch thaty shoulder that I am about to dislocate once again
[13:18] {Threei}  1:4
[13:18] {Threei}
[13:19] {dino} hos stop
[13:20] {Threei}  btw, about all those charts
[13:20] {Threei}  new course is moving forward very fast
[13:21] {Threei}  after replacing my computer with the one I assembled myself, I ran out of excuses to put it off any longer
[13:21] {Threei}  if I maintain the pace of this week, it should be finalized within a month
[13:21] {Threei}  as planned, two parts
[13:22] {Threei}  first is over 100 charts broken down by tyypical setups, woith explanation of each trade
[13:22] {RonS} Italian vote on austerity delayed to Friday
[13:22] {Threei}  second is videos whewre a viewer is presented with chart with no annotations, then with those, to train visual oatern recognition
[13:24] {Threei}  Christmas tree tax on TV
[13:25] {RonS} .15 per tree to fund christman tree promotion...unreal
[13:26] {patience} .
[13:26] {Threei}  not to put too fine point on it... but what's your point?
[13:27] {patience} :)
[13:33] {nemo} o.k. off to try and kill bambi's relatives...awful warm up here though
[13:34] {thomcbell} very strange action in miners
[13:35] {thomcbell} abx strong nem weak slw strong most of day
[13:35] {thomcbell} rgld all over the place
[13:35] {nemo} slw isn't really a miner
[13:35] {nemo} they buy up production I believe
[13:35] {thomcbell} yes they buy silver rights
[13:35] {thomcbell} from other producers
[13:36] {nemo} so they are likely to act differently from miners, they don't bear the operational costs
[13:36] {thomcbell} yy
[13:39] {Threei}  wow FCX
[13:39] {Threei}  still dropping
[13:40] {Threei}  that's 1:8
[13:42] {thomcbell} almost aq rinse
[13:42] {thomcbell} big volume spike a few bars ago on 5 min
[13:55] {Threei}  1:12
[13:57] {Threei}  (IT) Fitch comments on Italy insurance industry exposure to sovereign debt- Fitch: Contrary to what many commentators are predicting, Italian insurers may not be able to pass on most of the losses incurred from an unlikely default of Italian government debt.
[13:57] {Threei}  - Based on our 'A+'/Negative rating of Italian sovereign debt, Fitch believes that Italian government bonds are a low default risk. However, in the extreme scenario of a sovereign default, the ability of insurers to pass losses on to policyholders would be significantly impaired, as the return on customer portfolios may be below the minimum promised to policyholders. Insurers would be liable for the additional losses
[13:57] {Threei}  (IT) Reports that businesses and banking institutions are now requesting an immediate emergency Government - financial pres
[13:57] {Threei}  s- Request budget legislation be approved quickly
[13:59] {thomcbell} there;s the real volume spike fcx
[13:59] {thomcbell} jesus
[13:59] {thomcbell} 13:1 Vad
[14:00] {Threei}  scalper regret kicks in big time
[14:01] {dino}  ipgp sm l .14
[14:06] {patience} remember those days of 800 point swings, i see them coming again
[14:08] {dino} gaps 11657, 2298, 1218
[14:12] {dino} gaps 11657, 2298, 1218
[14:12] {dino} nihd sm l .71
[14:30] {Threei}
[14:36] {dino}  smr l rovi .01
[14:53] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Barroso: Dividing Europe into Core and Periphey will not work; Germany's GDP may contract up to 3% and lose as many as 1M jobs if there is an EU split
[14:53] {Threei}  - Would like to see more integration.
[14:53] {Threei}  - Cannot go futher within current treaty
[14:53] {Threei}  - NOTE: Earlier today: (EU) French and German leaders are said to be having preliminary discussions for a radical overhaul of the euro zone - financial press
[15:02] {dino} rovi stop -.11
[15:07] {dino} and rinsed
[15:19] {dino}  gld droppping
[15:19] {dino} silver too
[15:21] {dino} out ipgp .44, +.30
[15:29] {Threei}  can't tell how it's going to end
[15:29] {Threei}  feels like down but kind of 51/49
[15:32] {dino} think we get a good news bounce
[15:32] {Threei}  today?
[15:32] {Threei}  what news/
[15:32] {dino} a beer bet perhaps, close {-300
[15:33] {dino} any idiot euro politician talking
[15:37] {Threei}  feels like they are out of talking points, lol
[15:37] {RonS} hearing berlusconi having a post austerity vote/resignation party
[15:37] {RonS} 2000 initetees
[15:37] {RonS} nivite
[15:37] {RonS} invite
[15:38] {dino} on the taxpayers of course
[15:38] {RonS} says austerity is for the little people...
[15:38] {RonS} ...joke...
[15:38] {dino} man, you get me every day
[15:38] {RonS} u asked for it...
[15:38] {RonS} :D
[15:39] {dino} fool me once...
[15:42] {RonS} gs murdered today
[15:44] {dino} looks like 3i is going to be right'
[15:44] {Threei}  again...
[15:45] {Threei}  irritating
[15:45] {Threei}  don't tell my wife
[15:45] {RonS} or larisa
[15:45] {Threei}  if I am right about anything couple more times, she will suffocate me in my sleep
[15:50] {Threei}  ok guys, no more trades
[15:51] {Threei}  this ship goes down, IMO
[15:51] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {dino} rovi lod
[15:52] {dino} cya vad