Monday, November 21, 2011

Nov 21 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nicely profitable day, with unusually high percentage of invalidations. Other than that, most of trades worked like charm.

Session Time: Mon Nov 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:01] {dino} gm all
[09:01] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:02] {swill} good morning
[09:02] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:11] {_nocki} Good morning!!
[09:12] {Threei}  morning nocki
[09:17] {Threei}  (US) Super Committee member Kerry (D-MA): Disagreements are over bush tax cuts; everyone will face higher taxes if deal is not reached
[09:17] {Threei}  - Notes that democrats want tax cuts for 99%, and feels millionaires do not need another tax cut
[09:17] {Threei}  - Highlights willingness of Congress to bring the corporate tax rate to 25%; but if that is done, cannot have the bush tax cuts
[09:17] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier chatter circulated that there would be no deal reached at super congress at the upcoming announcement late on today
[09:17] {Threei}  noticed how they start using "99%" rhetorics?
[09:25] {ese} morning
[09:25] {ese} morning
[09:25] {ese} opps
[09:25] {ese} opps
[09:25] {Threei}  hmm
[09:25] {Threei}  ok... I am game
[09:25] {Threei}  hi
[09:25] {Threei}  hih
[09:26] {ese} mornin vad
[09:28] {Threei}  FCX, .75 support to break
[09:28] {Threei}  no...
[09:28] {ese} vad our power went out once last bout you?
[09:28] {Threei}  let's see if we get any bounces to short into
[09:28] {Threei}  fine here
[09:29] {Threei}  but we have wind warning, so all bets are off
[09:30] {ese} so much for the supposed big snow storm that was suppose to appear on the weekend
[09:30] {Threei}  argh FCX
[09:30] {Threei}  didn't wait for us, eh
[09:31] {Threei}  bounce istead
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if holding above .35
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW is holding better
[09:32] {Threei}  not really ready yet
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if not losing .30 anymore
[09:33] {Threei}  target .70
[09:33] {Threei}  stop under .30 scalpers, .25 day traders
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW, getting more interested
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  half out , stop to .35
[09:36] {Threei}  scalpers need no guidance
[09:36] {Threei}  they are out and laughing
[09:38] {Threei}  keep LVS on radar for possible double bottom if pullas back to 44 - 44.10 range
[09:39] {Threei}  FCX, scalpers win
[09:40] {pragmatic} RIMM double bottom ?
[09:40] {Threei}  could be
[09:40] {Threei}  .30 is support to hold
[09:40] {Threei}  .40 would be aggressive entry
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RMBS  .30 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:45] {Threei}  let's tighten it to .19
[09:45] {Threei}  market is too shaky here, don't want to give any stock too much room
[09:46] {Threei}  out
[09:46] {Threei}  RIMM 1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  1:1
[09:46] {pragmatic} out RIMM 1:1. Ty
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break if stays under .70
[09:49] {Threei}  a little late
[09:49] {Threei}  don't chase
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[09:52] {Threei}  if holding above .30
[09:53] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:54] {Threei}  grr FCX
[09:54] {Threei}  got away
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .33 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays above .25
[09:56] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:58] {Threei}  well, you know what's next
[09:58] {Threei}  plenty of invalidations, way more than usual
[09:58] {Threei}  better than stops of course
[09:58] {RonS} breakfast?
[09:58] {Threei}  lol
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.97M V 4.80ME
[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break
[10:00] {Threei}  half lot
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[10:02] {Threei}  target 34.10 - 34.20
[10:02] {Threei}  if SPY loses .59, that will be it
[10:02] {Threei}  .50
[10:02] {dino} sina sm l .76
[10:04] {dino} out .13, +.37
[10:04] {Threei}  wtg
[10:05] {dino} ty
[10:05] {Threei}  Jefferies Group Inc Reiterates that exposure to European debt remains insignficant, notes once again that the firm has a net short position in European debt - financial press citing letter to clients
[10:05] {Threei}  - Has $134M net short position in European debt.
[10:05] {Threei}  hmmm... weird statement
[10:05] {Threei}  half out TZA
[10:06] {Threei}  out in full
[10:06] {Threei}  too sharp
[10:06] {Threei}  held above stop level with amazing precision
[10:07] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[10:07] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:09] {Threei}  target 1:2, maybe more
[10:09] {Threei}  will have to decide on the go if getting there
[10:12] {Threei}  no ho
[10:12] {dino} tdg sm l .51
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:13] {Threei}  half lot
[10:13] {Threei}  stop under .70
[10:14] {dino} sohu sm l .47
[10:15] {cipher} ibm l .17
[10:16] {Threei}  1:1 TZA
[10:19] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:19] {dino} 2202 filled
[10:20] {patience} good morning
[10:20] {dino} 11539 dji gap
[10:21] {Threei}  patience :)
[10:21] {_optionman} test
[10:22] {Threei}  passed... with flying colors :)
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
[10:23] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[10:23] {Threei}  still valid
[10:24] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:25] {Threei}  play the book with usual partials and trails
[10:25] {ese} L DNDN .60
[10:25] {Threei}  unless scalping... in which case you need my instructions like third nostril
[10:26] {dino} csh sm l .00
[10:27] {ese} add an "a" and it has the appropriate symbol
[10:27] {dino} lol
[10:28] {ese} i like the look of SOHU's 1 min chrt
[10:28] {Threei}  come on SLW... while we are young
[10:29] {Threei}  SPY doesn't look healthy
[10:30] {ese} come on dndn.....a few more cents and you are my Clint Eastwood trade for the day
[10:30] {Threei}  may kill our play
[10:30] {Threei}  no news for this drop
[10:31] {Threei}  no news for this spike either
[10:31] {Threei}  very nervous market
[10:31] {Threei}  (US) Announcement by the Super congress will be made later today if no agreement is reached
[10:32] {Threei}  we got it, nop agreement, who cares... it was clear from the get-go
[10:32] {Threei}  out SLW
[10:32] {Threei}  new lows are coming for SPY
[10:33] {Threei}  DNDN's working, ese
[10:33] {Threei}  nice
[10:33] {Threei}  meanwhile in the bizarro world:
[10:33] {Threei}  American International Group, Inc Former AIG CEO Greenberg sues US govt for $25B on behalf of sharesholders; claims the taking of 80% stake in AIG was a constitutional violation, depriving shareholders of property rights
[10:33] {ese} BABY!!!!!!  out 1/2 dndn .72......2.5 K to go
[10:34] {dino} gj
[10:34] {ese} stop to .70
[10:34] {ese} tks
[10:36] {ese} out balance .70 +.10
[10:36] {Threei}  here come new lows
[10:36] {ese} GO AHEAD "Make my Day"  as Clint would say
[10:36] {Threei}  this threatens to turn into full blown panic day
[10:38] {dino} 11539 filled
[10:39] {ese} at some point in time we would expect the market to stop taking seriously the stupid comments that come out of idiots that work at places like Fitch don't you think?
[10:40] {Threei}  I don't think this is what spooks the market
[10:40] {ese} like that goof ball last week......another off the cuff europe is out of control them
[10:40] {Threei}  nah... you really think EU problems are not real?
[10:41] {Threei}  if Fitch etc stop commenting, everything will be a-OK?
[10:41] {ese} course they are but it's not the end of the world
[10:41] {Threei}  no, but end of EU and Euro - quite possible
[10:42] {ese} yup........but get on with it.......
[10:42] {Threei}  we already had rating agencies telling us everything was great, while bubble grew
[10:42] {Threei}  maybe it's high time for them to start telling the truth
[10:43] {Threei}  and when they say EU debt is non-repayble, and bond holders will get hurt, isn't it the truth?
[10:44] {ese} of course.....someone has to take the brunt of this
[10:44] {Threei}  well... that's what Fitch is saying
[10:44] {Threei}  and as far as I am concerned, they are saying only half of it
[10:44] {Threei}  actual situation is even worse
[10:45] {ese} my point is that is had been said a ton of times has reacted....done end of story ....get on with it
[10:45] {Threei}  market starts waking up to the idea that EU won't be able to print its way out of it
[10:45] {Threei}  I view it differently... market hasn't reacted on it yet, not even close
[10:45] {Threei}  market stayed up in assumption that solution will come
[10:46] {ese} hmmmmmmm
[10:46] {Threei}  now it starts realzing it may not
[10:46] {Threei}  imagine EU/Euro collapse... do you think it would worth 1 few hundred Dow points drop?
[10:46] {Threei}  a few
[10:46] {Threei}  or more like a few thousands?
[10:47] {thomcbell} s&p futures down 200
[10:47] {thomcbell} kind of scenario
[10:47] {Threei}  easy
[10:48] {ese} in my opinion i think this is the higher low part vad.....major crisis was in 08/09 sept oct nov etc.....
[10:48] {Threei}  that's one point of view...
[10:48] {Threei}  another is:
[10:48] {Threei}  that was only the first leg
[10:49] {Threei}  while problems were more or less US-located
[10:49] {ese} hmmmmm  ya could be iguess
[10:49] {Threei}  now that the whole EU is on a brink of collaspe, we face a new can of worms:
[10:50] {Threei}  imagine bankikng system situation if the whol,e structure disappears
[10:50] {Threei}  and whole currency
[10:50] {Threei}  and project this to the economy which once again will be left with no funding
[10:51] {Threei}  then throw in China which clearly goes for its own hard kanding
[10:51] {Threei}  landing
[10:51] {Threei}  still think we are talking a few hundred points? :)
[10:52] {ese} lol......gotta trust someone though
[10:53] {thomcbell} what elliott wave guys are calling for is essentially the end of the system
[10:53] {thomcbell} spx 200
[10:53] {Threei}  well... to be fair, some of them were ca,lling for that for the last 30 years :)
[10:53] {Threei}  I doubt it will be that bad, but when real crisis hits, it sure will feel like that
[10:54] {ese} ya....that fellow.....Prechter?....bit of a freak i think
[10:54] {ese} he's lost alot of people alot of money
[10:54] {RonS} ya, they forget the good news...we will always have drummers...
[10:54] {RonS} :D
[10:54] {Threei}  new lows
[10:54] {ese} damn right
[10:54] {Threei}  panic is coming
[10:56] {dino} mkts down 7-9% in two weeks
[10:57] {dino} next gaps down 11103 and aa55
[10:57] {dino} 1155
[10:58] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:59] {Threei}  stop above .90
[11:00] {Threei}  1:1
[11:00] {Threei}  target 1:3
[11:02] {Threei}  1:2 close enough
[11:02] {Threei}  got back that stop earlier in SLW
[11:02] {Threei}  and then some
[11:03] {Threei}  stop for the last piece is .71
[11:06] {Threei}  let's go for 1:3, SLW
[11:06] {Threei}  be a good girl
[11:09] {Threei}  now, here is a great example of the reporting that I'd label "beyond useless"
[11:09] {Threei}  Dow Jones industrial average falls 300 points on Washington budget gridlock, Europe debt woes -AP
[11:10] {Threei}  mind you, if we were up 300 points, they'd report the same, only used "despite"
[11:10] {Threei}  Dow Jones industrial average gains 300 points despite Washington budget gridlock, Europe debt woes -AP
[11:10] {Threei}  can yolu see them reportring this?
[11:10] {Threei}  IMO, easy
[11:11] {Threei}  SLW, done with last portion
[11:15] {Threei}  In Europe, there is a general sense that European officials are helpless to staunch contagion as investors continue to yank money away from the continent. Moodys warned that higher borrowing costs would be credit negative for France, Goldman Sachs warned that sovereign risk is "spreading like wildfire" and Germany's BdB Banking Association warned that even German local governments are already having trouble financing themselves.
[11:18] {Threei}  watching TZA for possible long
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break half lot
[11:19] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[11:20] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:21] {Threei}  trade with such tight stop could have been done on full lot, but we had decent morning, I don't want to push too much
[11:21] {Threei}  TZA is volatile one, let's keep it to half lot today
[11:25] {Threei}  while market is uncertain and no clear trades are in sight... we have a few new faces in the room, any questions guys?
[11:25] {Threei}  girls?
[11:26] {Threei}  OK, everything must be crystal clear... good
[11:26] {Threei}  either that or no one wants to talk to me...
[11:27] {Threei}  which is fine too, lol
[11:27] {_optionman} Yes, I do, when you said short set up SLW.80 break, stop above 90, target 1.1, does that mean when slw hits .80 you short
[11:27] {Threei}  when it breaks it rather
[11:27] {Threei}  as in: .80 bids are hit, bid drops to .79
[11:28] {Threei}  idea is, .80 is a support at the moment, ad break of it is indicative of the next move
[11:29] {_optionman} on tza long .80 break, you would go long first break above .80, but if it went below .70 before it went above .80 no trade?
[11:30] {Threei}  right, that's when we say "invalidated"
[11:30] {Threei}  holding above support is necessary condition for a breakout trade to be valid
[11:30] {_optionman} As a scalper would sell at a dime profit and loss?
[11:31] {Threei}  so, the call defines all the conditions
[11:31] {Threei}  right, scalper normally goes for 1:1
[11:31] {Threei}  it's not necessary a dime, we just try to pick trades where stop is around that
[11:31] {Threei}  but you could see some with 15 cents stops today
[11:31] {Threei}  so 1:1 would be reached at 15 cents profit
[11:32] {Threei}  addtionally, take a look at the section titled "how trading room operates"
[11:32] {_optionman} 1.1 means what?
[11:32] {Threei}  where a lot of these things are explained
[11:32] {Threei}  1:1 is risk/reward ratio
[11:33] {Threei}
[11:33] {Threei}  scroll down to "how trading room operates"
[11:34] {_optionman} Thanks
[11:34] {Threei}  sure thing
[11:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
[11:35] {Threei}  half lot again
[11:35] {Threei}  if stays above .45 scalpers, .40 day traders
[11:36] {Threei}  scalpers 1;1
[11:37] {Threei}  day traders trail stop to .44
[11:37] {Threei}  let's keep it tight and safe
[11:38] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[11:39] {Threei}  see the logic of the trade's structure, optionman?
[11:39] {_optionman} yes, thank you
[11:39] {Threei}  :)
[11:40] {Threei}  who partials, trail stop to .54 at this point, and aim for 1:2 to close position
[11:40] {Threei}  if SPY gors for new lows here you should be able to get that easy
[11:44] {ese} gotta go all....cya tomorrow
[11:44] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:44] {Threei}  careful with that wind warning
[11:44] {dino} cya ese
[11:44] {swill} see ya ese
[11:44] {Threei}  TZA baby
[11:44] {Threei}  let's go for that 1:2
[11:45] {Threei}  dino... movie report I promised
[11:46] {Threei}  it's not bad, better than I expected... I doubt though it's for those who never read the book, they might not understahd what it's all about
[11:46] {Threei}  kind if "illustration to the book, who read it, knows"
[11:47] {dino} ok, thx
[11:47] {Threei}  OK... out second half TZA
[11:47] {Threei}  oversat my welcome a bit
[11:48] {Threei}  but whatever, nicely profitable trade in any case
[12:19] {Threei}  was tempted by NVDA at 13.80... decided to skip it because of general market weakness at the time
[12:20] {Threei}  too bad
[12:21] {Threei}  look at this... hard to watch without either tears or hysterical laughter (bitter kind)
[12:21] {Threei}
[12:25] {_optionman} That's funny
[12:25] {Threei}  I still can't decide to laugh or grind my teeth
[12:25] {Threei}  tried both, hard to do and looks a bit Frankensteiny
[12:26] {Threei}  although wife didn't comment, so maybe that's just how I look on daily basis...
[12:27] {dino} out sohu .02, +.55
[12:27] {Threei}  wtg
[12:27] {Threei}  took patience
[12:27] {dino} yes
[12:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[12:34] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[12:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:38] {Threei}  market commentator memo: when in doubt, your way out is:
[12:38] {Threei}  'I don't think so, but it sure could be likely'
[12:39] {Threei}  I really need to learn to talk like this... much easier than setup with no way to pretend I was right if I am not
[12:39] {Threei}  let's see:
[12:39] {Threei}  FCX is not a short in my opinion but it sure could be likely that it is
[12:39] {Threei}  there... go ahead and try to trade on this
[12:54] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break if stays under .60
[12:54] {Threei}  .55 as agressive entry is possible
[12:55] {Threei}  if you go for it, stop is the same .61
[12:56] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:56] {Threei}  that becomes word of the day... don't remember so many invalidations in one day
[13:02] {Threei}  (EU) EU plans to implement additional control over budgets at countries receiving aid is facing difficulties - financial press draf
[13:02] {Threei}  t- Plans involved bringing struggling counties under oversight until 3/4 of their aid has been repaid
[13:02] {Threei}  - Measures being explored could include obliging countries to request aid if needed and having those countries consider austerity
[13:02] {Threei}  essentially takeover of sovereign states... unbelievable
[13:03] {Threei}  (GE) German Chancellor Merkel affirms opposition to joint euro bond issuance - CDU party spokesperson
[13:07] {thomcbell} lvs 43.66 entry Vad
[13:07] {Threei}  long?
[13:07] {Threei}  no
[13:07] {Threei}  not unless it consolidates closer to it for a while
[13:07] {thomcbell} k
[13:08] {Threei}  .56 I would consider
[13:08] {Threei}  there was ascending triangle l,eading to it
[13:10] {Threei}  FMCN...
[13:14] {Threei}  wow
[13:15] {dino} fmcn
[13:17] {Threei}  serious bloodletting
[13:18] {Threei}  if want some serious adrenalin play,
[13:18] {Threei}  small shares,
[13:19] {Threei}  get ready
[13:19] {Threei}  15 break
[13:19] {dino} muddy waters cov sell, fraud claimed
[13:19] {Threei}  yeah
[13:19] {Threei}  stop would be under .70
[13:19] {Threei}  nope, too early
[13:22] {Threei}  panic
[13:23] {Threei}  12.80 break
[13:23] {Threei}  no
[13:23] {Threei}  ummm... too hysterical
[13:23] {Threei}  lol, look at this
[13:27] {Threei}  mama
[13:29] {Threei}  halt
[13:29] {patience} .
[13:33] {Threei}  opened for the next leg of opanic, exaggerated and fueled by the halt
[13:33] {Threei}  idiots
[13:38] {Threei}  Egypt's cabinet submitted its resignation to ruling Army council
[13:39] {Threei}  reads lkike from some distopian novel
[13:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[13:41] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[13:45] {Threei}  this is what, third halt FMCN?
[13:47] {_optionman} what would stop be on fcx
[13:47] {Threei}  [13:41] {Threei} if stays under .90
[13:48] {Threei}  that signifies the stop level, just above .90
[13:48] {Threei}  and tells tyou where 1;1 will be
[13:49] {dino} wow went to 8s
[13:53] {Threei}  amazing eh?
[13:55] {Threei}  time for violence?
06[13:55] * Threei hits FCX over the head with 2x4
[13:57] {Threei}  covering half
[13:57] {Threei}  1:1
[13:57] {Threei}  scalpers are out
[13:59] {_optionman} I'm out with scalp, very small size, first day here learning
[13:59] {_optionman} Thanks
[13:59] {Threei}  nothing's wrong with that
[13:59] {Threei}  welcome
[14:14] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart: Productivity gains helped keep employment down
[14:14] {Threei}  yes... it's productivity' fault
[14:16] {Threei}  (US) Super commitee member Senator Baucus: Still moving forward, have a new idea that is being worked on at the super congress
[14:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[14:38] {Threei}  1:1
[14:42] {Threei}  unuisually high % of invalidations, but those that do trigger work nicely
[15:09] {dino} sina sm l .28
[15:12] {dino} stop is .999
[15:18] {dino} stop
[15:20] {dino} rinsed
[15:23] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Govt requesting that data providers change quotation benchmark for bond prices - FT
[15:23] {Threei}  huh?
[15:23] {Threei}  change 7 to 3 so it doesn't look scary?
[15:23] {Threei}  I need translation
[15:24] {dino} bank of spain takes over banco de valencia
[15:25] {Threei}  (SP) Spain PM-elect Rajoy: Austerity measures have been approved, it is Spain's duty to strengthen the euro
[15:25] {Threei}  well... approved by tone-deaf government or approved by the people?
[15:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .45 break
[15:30] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[15:31] {dino} chk going green
[15:40] {Threei}  let's trail to .39
[15:40] {Threei}  too close to eod, no need to risk much
[15:41] {Threei}  out
[15:46] {Threei}  1:1
[15:46] {Threei}  shrug
[15:52] {_optionman} Good night all
[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:52] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {swill} thank you
[16:00] {patience} ty vad