Sunday, October 14, 2012

Nemo's findings week of 10/14/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

The Week That Was


No economic news.  Japanese markets closed, Canadian markets closed, and sparse US attendance due to Columbus Day.....boring.

SPY basically walked the weekly pivot and IWM basically walked the monthly pivot. Volumes subdued.  Nothing to see here...move along


No economic news today.  Well, downside continued today with the Qs bottoming at the Monthly S1, and the SPY bottoming just above the Monthly Pivot.  We are approaching the 50 day on the IWM about $.25 below the close, and the SPY's is rising at around 142.80, which puts us near the Bernanke gap in the 141 area. Qs, which have been incredibly strong this year dropped the 50SMA.  Below today's low next level is 66.60ish then 65.40ish with the rising 200SMA at 64.60ish, which is also the breakout level from early August. Important levels to watch for a bounce.


  • More downside today. Financials peaked at the weekly pivot dropped to the daily S1 and then ended slightly higher near the VWAP.  
  • Qs were held up by the daily S1. 
  • IWM bottomed at the Quarterly Pivot ending at VWAP, losing then regaining the 50SMA at the close.
  • SPY bottomed at 1) daily S2 that corresponded with the 2)September breakout above the August highs that corresponded with 3) the 23.6 retrace of the June lows and 4) the 61.8 retrace of the September low-confluence.

  • IWM and Qs look bounce ready.  Financials are holding trend-barely, and SPY looks like it's setting up for a bounce


What a surprise...we bounced at the open.  As I said, that 50SMA as well as those confluence levels on the SPY served as support for a bounce.

Qs topped out at Tuesday's highs and dropped to bottom at S1 on the daily.

Financials topped out  at Tuesday's highs also dropping to R1 just above the weekly pivot.

IWM topped out at R3 to finish near R1

SPY topped out in the resistance area from Tuesday to finish near yesterday's close. 



Ooops...Producer prices up more than expected, sentiment higher than expected...well that's like asking the crowd a question that requires intelligence...not.  Anyway,

Thought SPY would close on the 50 SMA, but dropped it in the last minute.  Financials seemed to be the key today, topping out at the Weekly Pivot then dropping taking everything else with it.  The 50 SMA only provided mild support for IWM and SPY, now, it is tested resistance.  Next week should be interesting, then again OP EX, so we'll see.

The Week That Is

All the indexes start the week under the Weekly Pivots, with the IWM and SPY near their respective 50 day simple moving averages. The 50s should be strong areas.  If they're not and we slice through, to the downside, the market has issues...
There are some confluences on the IWM.  The 38.2 retrace of the June bottom and the 50% retrace of the Aug. bottom are at 81.60.  Also we're at the doji breakout area from September 4th, bottoming at it's low on Friday

Major support is down at the 200 SMA at 80.12

The SPY has a few stronger confluences near 141.60, then the 140-140.25 and of course the rising 200 SMA is down near 137.20  Having said that, the lower boundary of the price channel going back to June is in the 142 area

There are gaps between  140.91(there's a doji breakout area there) and 141.76, (I don't know why those figures bolded) 139.35-.62-.81 and then a biggie between 136.64-138.49  Some significant volume was done between 136.30ish and 136.60, but the action would have to get through the 200 for that level to come into play...I don't thinks so.

I think we see a bounce in that bolded gap area.....Mmmmmhhh, that I think of it, those numbers for that gap that formatted as bold on their own, think somebody is trying to tell me something?  A little late to go out and buy a lottery ticket methinks.

The Qs... they look bounce ready also.  Remember aapl is 13% of the Qs.  Don't think so...go take a look at their charts. Pretty funny.  

As a matter of fact, all indices look like they are bounce ready at any time.  They are all in major support areas on the daily time frame.  

Well, that's it for now...