Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Oct 9 2012

Started day with very nice juicy FCX trade, then it turned in trading jabs with market - win one, lose one. Finished with win too though.

Session Time: Tue Oct 09 00:00:00 2012
[08:58] {goryl} gm
01[08:59] {Threei}  morning goryl
01[09:00] {Threei}  ummm...
01[09:00] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Chancellor Merkel is a friend of Greece
01[09:00] {Threei}  lol
[09:01] {nemo} news on NFLX?
[09:02] {cipher} gm
01[09:03] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:03] {scottie} good morning
01[09:03] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:03] {Threei}  NFLX several downgrades
01[09:04] {Threei}  cautious comments etc
01[09:04] {Threei}  and one upgrade
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {Beau} gm
01[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:16] {Threei}  Goldman: "We now expect the first hike in early 2016 (previously mid-2016)" & QE3 thru early 2015, totaling ~$2 trillion.
01[09:21] {Threei}  market looks confused so far
01[09:22] {Threei}  chatter from Europe is endless this morning, and SPY swings up and down in tune
[09:23] {Will49} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:24] {Threei}  the usual works... Spain says we are fine, EU says we will save a lot of you, Greece says... well, no one can decipher anymore what Greece says
01[09:25] {Threei}  "External financial flows have fallen from around 12% of [U.S.] GDP in late 2010 to -4% in the first half of this year." -Capital Economics
01[09:26] {Threei}  not sure what those flows are, but it can't be good
[09:27] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break
01[09:30] {Threei}  hl
01[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:31] {Threei}  1:1
[09:31] {ese} damn missed
[09:31] {ese} good call vad
01[09:32] {Threei}  how? it pulled back to pick up late passengers...
01[09:32] {Threei}  out in full
[09:32] {Will49} nice start Vad
[09:32] {scottie} +.20 ty Vad, wow what a start
01[09:32] {Threei}  :)
[09:32] {scottie} +.29
[09:32] {robbers} Yeah, got it on second try, but scalped profit.
[09:32] {Will49} +28
01[09:32] {Threei}  wtg
01[09:33] {Threei}  sometimes opening volatility can work FOR you...
[09:33] {nemo} bug windshield thing
01[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .76
01[09:34] {Threei}  SPY is unclear
01[09:35] {Threei}  out
[09:36] {ese} I wa later than that
[09:36] {ese} was
01[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .90 break
01[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .35 break hl
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:38] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .40 break hl
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:41] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:41] {Threei}  too jumpy, leaving it be for now
01[09:41] {Threei}  LVS stop to .84
01[09:44] {Threei}  strangely thin tradng
01[09:44] {Threei}  pretty much everywhere I look
[09:46] {nemo} pretty funnny...I'm online trying to buy doe permits for hunting season...they're letting me download them without paying...oops
01[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .85 break
01[09:49] {Threei}  (GR) Greece President: Greece has almost met the limits of what is possible, needs measures to promote job growth - meeting with Chancellor Merkel
01[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .65 break hl
01[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:50] {Threei}  change trigger to .60
01[09:50] {Threei}  stop under .50
01[09:53] {Threei}  JPM invalidated
01[09:53] {Threei}  SPY losing support
01[09:53] {Threei}  quite strange morning
01[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: ALL  .35 break
[09:54] {ese} how so
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:58] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .70 break hl
01[10:00] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:01] {ese} in
01[10:01] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:01] {ese} .72
01[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {Threei}  stop to .68 for the balance
01[10:01] {Threei}  1:2, over and out
01[10:02] {Threei}  1:3
[10:02] {nemo} should be good to 43.20ish
[10:02] {ese} out .99
[10:02] {ese} +.27 tks vad
[10:02] {scottie} +.20 ty Vad
[10:02] {nemo} then .40ish
01[10:02] {Threei}  chart wise yes, but there are a lot of strange moves today, want to remain on a safe side
01[10:02] {Threei}  yw
01[10:02] {Threei}  1:4... darn, nemo was right
01[10:03] {Threei}  frikin CAT
01[10:03] {Threei}  look at this thing
[10:03] {nemo} don't you hate that
01[10:03] {Threei}  I so do
[10:03] {nemo} I'm such a hytraya zhopa
01[10:03] {Threei}  you so are
[10:03] {ese} well get rid of the pet
[10:06] {ese} L fcx .39
[10:07] {ese} 3/4
[10:08] {ese} daaaaaaaaaa
[10:09] {ese} well ...this is not good
[10:09] {ese} ok...thats better
[10:12] {ese} well here to hoping this is a spyders head and shoulders bottom
[10:12] {ese} heres plural
01[10:13] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .68 break
01[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:13] {ese} ok.......i'm a cent up..........lem me see on 3/4 ...thats 7 bucks........i'm out
[10:14] {ese} just kidding..................
[10:14] {nemo} hey cipher, you been shorting aapl?
[10:14] {cipher} no
[10:15] {ese} stick a bunch of wires in a bunch of apples and it produces electricity...........course he's been doin it
[10:15] {nemo} phewww...
[10:15] {cipher} I'm long right now
[10:15] {nemo} meds ese meds
01[10:15] {Threei}  what the deuce?
[10:16] {ese} ?
01[10:16] {Threei}  no news for thne sudden spike
[10:17] {ese} fcx hits 42 and this will be anice trading day
[10:18] {Will49} POT s still valid?
01[10:18] {Threei}  not in that shapw
01[10:18] {Threei}  shape
[10:18] {Will49} tks
[10:19] {Will49} C & H?
[10:20] {scottie} emc s .55 ?
[10:20] {cipher} nemo I'm out of aapl long
[10:20] {nemo} mmmhhhh
[10:20] {cipher} 2 pointer
01[10:20] {Threei}  EMC, yes
[10:20] {ese} potash is cheap like birch these days.........that stock used to trade regularly in the 100 to 150 range
[10:21] {ese} borsch
[10:21] {ese} not birch.........gettin sick and tired of this spell correct function
01[10:24] {Threei}  lol
[10:25] {nemo} mmmhhhh...I could say the same thing about reading them
01[10:42] {Threei}  EMC works
01[10:42] {Threei}  nice one
[10:42] {scottie} damn, watched emc for 20 minutes and missed the entry
[10:43] {scottie} laser canceled my order, I placed a new order, it accepted it, but it was too late
[10:43] {Will49} in at .54
[10:44] {scottie} +cc_8 I'm sending you a snapshot
01[10:49] {Threei}  how are you doing with management, will?
[10:49] {Will49} goo at the moment
[10:49] {Will49} good
01[10:49] {Threei}  ok... easy trde, but scream if need any help
[10:50] {Will49} tks
[10:51] {Beau} clf l .10 ?
[10:52] {Will49} +20 tks scottie
01[10:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break hl
[10:52] {scottie} welcome will
01[10:52] {Threei}  late CLF... but good eye
01[10:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  CAT
[10:53] {ese} am outta here........still long fcx.....takin a bit of heat but nothin serious
[10:53] {ese} cya
01[10:53] {Threei}  take care ese
01[10:53] {Threei}  not saure why you want to carry anything overnight here
[10:54] {nemo} bounce volume in spy
01[10:55] {Threei}  CLF 1:1, good one beau
[10:55] {Beau} in at .11
01[10:55] {Threei}  thing of beauty
01[10:55] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:56] {Threei}  Swing State Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%
01[10:57] {Threei}  hard to believe the effect of that debate
[10:57] {Will49} there's only ONE pole that counts
[10:58] {Will49} supreme court:)
[10:58] {Will49} i think it'll be that close
01[10:58] {Threei}  sure but akk these polls provide such great fodder fo chatter
[10:59] {Will49} true
[10:59] {scottie} Nice call Beau
[11:00] {Beau} ty
01[11:00] {Threei}  very
[11:00] {Will49} wtg noobie:)
[11:00] {Beau} :)
01[11:00] {Threei}  and this is so frikin rewarding to see you guys finding these setups
[11:00] {Will49} YOU think it's rewarding!
[11:00] {scottie} lol
01[11:00] {Threei}  almost as rewarding as watching nemo falling from a tree when he doozes off during hunt
[11:01] {Will49} seriously Vad...thanks for all you do
[11:01] {robbers} Yeah.
[11:01] {robbers} And yea.
[11:01] {robbers} Both.
01[11:02] {Threei}  like, trying to match nemo in sarcasm and misantropy? I still have ways to go...
[11:02] {Will49} we all have lessons to learn, eh?
01[11:03] {Threei}  totally... I am almost there is sarcasm department
01[11:03] {Threei}  in
[11:03] {nemo} had to clean the puke off the keyboard
01[11:03] {Threei}  see?
01[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 break hl
01[11:04] {Threei}  If holds  .65  of course
01[11:05] {Threei}  target 1:2
[11:06] {thomcbell} long setup slw - 39 break if holding 38.90
[11:06] {Beau} saying find vad, good friend asked if he could get intelliscan with joining. told him no-right?
01[11:07] {Threei}  sorry, no... it's a third party product, not much I can about it
01[11:07] {Threei}  he will have an online course for free though, and 30% discount for 111 Trades
[11:07] {Beau} try to get him to join.
[11:08] {Beau} he needs to learn nemo's persona.
01[11:08] {Threei}  as long as he doesn't read yesterday's log, those logs alone should be enough as tool for convincing :)
01[11:09] {Threei}  there is no trading room with our level of consistency
[11:11] {thomcbell} slw i sold when it went back through 39
01[11:11] {Threei}  yesterday though fits in one russian saying, very hard to translate... best I can do is: "on Monday, it's best to come to work on Tuesday"
[11:12] {Will49} it was the vodka gravy on your turkey Vad
[11:12] {thomcbell} wow - we may need a cultural explanation for that one
01[11:12] {Threei}  lol
[11:12] {thomcbell} AIG still has lots of fight in it
01[11:13] {Threei}  has to do with Monday's being tough and not very productive, tbell... :)
[11:15] {thomcbell} looking for a long setup to develop on fio near 30.25
[11:16] {thomcbell} oof nice miss there on slw
01[11:17] {Threei}  no go CAT
[11:18] {nemo} lly
01[11:19] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[11:23] {nemo} look for lly bounce .35-.40
01[11:24] {Threei}  nah
01[11:24] {Threei}  market is a tough read here'
[11:25] {nemo} current spy bottom is .10 above Ws1, Q bottom so far is Monthly S1
[11:25] {nemo} we're close
[11:30] {scottie} emc l .50 ?
01[11:31] {Threei}  not sure
[11:31] {scottie} ok
[11:34] {nemo} o.k. so lly only got to .43
[11:40] {Will49} emc s below .45?
01[11:42] {Threei}  can't tell really
[11:42] {Will49} ok
[11:42] {scottie} dow s .45 ?
01[11:43] {Threei}  liking this one better
01[11:44] {Threei}  if market continues down, not much to hold DOW
01[11:44] {Threei}  no support on an y of charts anywhere close
[11:46] {scottie} in .44
[11:46] {scottie} stop .56
[11:46] {Will49} me too
[11:49] {Beau} Jerry Sandusky was sentenced Tuesday to at least 30 years in prison - effectively a life sentence.Afraid of being raped. Justice if it happens.
[11:51] {Will49} BOHICA
[11:51] {scottie} lol
[11:51] {nemo} nah, they'll keep him in solitary
[11:59] {thomcbell} darn FIO
[12:00] {thomcbell} nothing developed down there - just needed to do a Dino
[12:00] {thomcbell} i dont have that knack developed
[12:02] {nemo} I get to kill things next week...
[12:03] {nemo} wonder if some of my hunting buddies should have accidents?
01[12:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break
01[12:13] {Threei}  If holds  60
01[12:13] {Threei}  target .40
01[12:14] {Threei}  1:1
[12:18] {thomcbell} Central banks buy stocks - Central banks, among the most conservative asset managers in the world, are buying more stocks because of the paltry returns and negative yields available from top-rated sovereign bonds. Israel's central bank started buying equities this year.  South Korea's central bank's share of stocks in its reserves grew to 5.4 percent last yea
01[12:18] {Threei}  TNA, same setup is valid again
01[12:21] {Threei}  no worky this time
[12:23] {scottie} missed it first time, got it this time, just my luck
[12:23] {Will49} that's two of us
[12:23] {scottie}  lol
[12:25] {Will49} some will...some won't...next
01[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPW  .30 break
01[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .30 break
01[12:27] {Threei}  If holds  .25  for scalpers, .20 day traders
[12:34] {cc_8} Accenture (NYSE: ACN) has acquired avVenta Worldwide, a provider of digital . production services to leading brands and agencies across multiple industries
[12:34] {cc_8} Costco (NYSE: COST), which Barron's picked this week as a defensive play in a period of overestimated corporate earnings, is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2012 results
[12:40] {scottie} agnc dropping
[12:51] {thomcbell} gdx new low
01[12:56] {Threei}  market feels like going for new lows
[13:06] {scottie} gdx s .40 ?
01[13:07] {Threei}  chart wise yes, but I am not sure I have a firm read on the market here'
[13:08] {scottie} ok
[13:09] {scottie} will, are you still in dow ?
[13:09] {Will49} no
[13:09] {Will49} -.13
[13:10] {Will49} correction  -.10
[13:10] {scottie} I'm still in and learning patience, lol
[13:11] {Will49} yeah...I'm learning how to read my own scribbles. Was down .07 on DOW
[13:13] {Will49} hang in there scottie. Patience my biggest challenge
[13:13] {scottie} mine too
[13:13] {Will49} oh no.. that's not right. It's number one on list of 35 challenges
[13:13] {scottie} lol
[13:15] {Will49} learned thru Douglas's book that my fear of losing money drives need to get out too early and raise stops too tight etc.
[13:15] {Will49} I'm grinding away at it though
[13:15] {Will49} gotta get my gain % highr than losses
[13:16] {scottie} difficult to achieve in my case
[13:16] {Will49} shheeesh...baring my soul here:)
01[13:16] {Threei}  time for that Taoist Trader, will
01[13:16] {Threei}  addresses everything you speak of
01[13:16] {Threei}  and much more
[13:16] {Will49} yeah, I know///it's on the list Vad
01[13:42] {Threei}  GALLUP LIKELY VOTERS: ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47
[13:49] {nemo} wprt
01[13:52] {Threei}  take a look at this interesting chart guys: http://goo.gl/trpD4
01[13:53] {Threei}  what it illustrates is, we haven't really lost manufacturing - we just manufacture things with less human participation
[13:54] {Will49} Chinese labour also
01[13:55] {Threei}  sure, but main point is - claims that we stopped manujfacturing and outsourced it all are not exactly correct
01[13:55] {Threei}  we outsourced some and automated some
[13:55] {Will49} robotics have made huge difference
01[13:55] {Threei}  don't know about proportions, I doubt it's easy to evaluate
[13:58] {Will49} whatever the various causes, it surely has screwed the middle class
01[14:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  SWC  .25 break
[14:19] {nemo} aapl green...all is right with the world
[14:22] {scottie} in .25
[14:26] {scottie} out dow -.12 after 2 3/4 hours. Who said that patience is always rewarded lol
01[14:26] {Threei}  well... it's still a virtue
[14:27] {Will49} :s
[14:27] {nemo} spy fat finger
[14:28] {nemo} or stop hunt
01[14:29] {Threei}  grr
[14:30] {Will49} grr is right
[14:47] {nemo} buying pressure under iwm and spy
01[14:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  SM  .50 break hl
01[14:50] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[14:50] {nemo} funny, that spy spike was right to the daily pivot
01[14:54] {Threei}  SM has room to .80 - .90
[15:00] {scottie} too fast for me
[15:00] {Will49} missed also
[15:01] {scottie} should we still get in
01[15:01] {Threei}  why not
01[15:01] {Threei}  just keep size smallish'
01[15:01] {Threei}  pulp
[15:01] {Will49} in at .51
[15:01] {scottie} .515
01[15:10] {Threei}  1:1
[15:12] {scottie} stop .44 ?
01[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
01[15:13] {Threei}  with this volatility, exact price points turn into fuzy zones
01[15:13] {Threei}  fuzzy
[15:15] {dino} major distraction day for me. how did everybody do today?
[15:16] {thomcbell} Wells Fargo (WFC) headlines          *U.S. FILES CIVIL MORTGAGE FRAUD SUIT AGAINST WELLS FARGO          *FHA FORCED TO PAY `HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS' FOR DEFAULTED LOANS          *WSJ: U.S. Seeks 'Hundreds of Millions of Dollars' in Damages
[15:16] {Will49} don't distract me...in a trade:)
01[15:16] {Threei}  back and forth day dino
01[15:16] {Threei}  win one, lose one
[15:17] {dino} ok, figured i missed a good one
[15:22] {Will49} out -.07
[15:22] {scottie} hard stop didn't work, out -.16
[15:23] {Will49} scary watching those spreads change eh?
[15:23] {scottie} you bet
[15:23] {Will49} have to wait until I grow up to be able to play them like Vad and the boys
01[15:24] {Threei}  60% Say There Are Too Many #Lawyers in the US
[15:24] {Will49} the other 40% are lawyers
01[15:24] {Threei}  ummm... I'd add, too many of them become presidents
[15:24] {nemo} he wasn't a lawyer, he was worse...a law professor
[15:30] {thomcbell} if today's bag holders on AIG get very discouraged we might get a long entry at some point
01[15:31] {Threei}  .40 break, maybe
[15:36] {thomcbell} are u there Vad?
[15:36] {thomcbell} kind of like it
[15:36] {thomcbell} for a 1:2 taret
[15:36] {thomcbell} target
01[15:36] {Threei}  yup
[15:37] {Will49} I'm in at .41 TB
[15:37] {scottie} same here
01[15:38] {Threei}  I wish it weren't so close to eod
[15:39] {thomcbell} yes same
01[15:40] {Threei}  let's partial here
01[15:41] {Threei}  (JP) JPMorgan projecting auto exports from Japan to China to fall about 70% in Oct-Dec quarter - Shanghai Daily- Chief economist: "What we have ahead of us is going to be terrible. It's like last year's disaster all over again."
01[15:44] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/NXHRV
[15:47] {Will49} did you find a package out of Victoria airport?
01[15:48] {Threei}  yes
01[15:48] {Threei}  not as great price as out of seattle
[15:48] {Will49} But a lot less stressful
01[15:48] {Threei}  but I don't have a luxury of couple days around the flight to add seattly
01[15:49] {Threei}  price difference is mind-boggling though... 300/pp
[15:49] {Will49} I hate going thru border, staying in hotel etc when flying out of bellingham or sea
01[15:50] {Threei}  true
[15:50] {Will49} If you add cost of ferry, gas, hotel, parking, it comes pretty close
[15:50] {nemo} and time
01[15:50] {Threei}  if I had time I'd just do that easy way: Clipper to Seattle, fun day over there
[15:50] {Will49} the rest is stress reduction benefit
01[15:50] {Threei}  no car, no parking etc
[15:54] {scottie} out on 2nd half flat, +.10 on first half tks tbell
01[15:54] {Threei}  end of negative session, can lead to more selling
01[15:55] {Threei}  that's what kept this play from reaching its potential
01[15:55] {Threei}  but peofir is profit, let's not bitch too much about it
[15:56] {thomcbell} yes definitely
01[15:57] {Threei}  finishing at lows with more selling
01[15:57] {Threei}  I like
01[15:57] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:57] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:58] {Will49} Cheers everyone
[15:58] {scottie} gn all