Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Jan 31 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Nice steady day with enough good trades to make it worth our while.



Session Time: Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 2012
[08:48] {dino} gm
[08:49] {dino} problem w/mibbit yesterday, seems ok today
[08:49] {Threei}  morning dino
[08:49] {Threei}  yeah, mibbit went down for about an hour
[08:50] {Threei}  came bacl online at about 3:35
[08:50] {Threei}  mirc connection was fine so our server was OK
[09:02] {Threei}  my feel is, market is highly confused and, not being able to figure out distant future (beyond couple days), makes short term gyrations on the latest headline. This will continue until EU situation clears up
[09:02] {nemo} I can identify
[09:02] {nemo} with it
[09:02] {Threei}  the great battle of "it all goes to hell in a handbasket" vs. "they will print their way out of it anyway"
[09:03] {Threei}  but you don't gyrate, do you
[09:03] {dino} printing
[09:03] {Threei}  please tell me you don't
[09:03] {Threei}  dancer's hip is painful I hear
[09:15] {stewy} good morning Vad and crew
[09:15] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:15] {nemo} stewster
[09:16] {stewy} looks like I missed a few scalps yesterday afternoon
[09:16] {Threei}  yeah, a few of them worked fine, especially if one kept expectations low and took sure scalps
[09:21] {rambler} gm...
[09:21] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:21] {Threei}  SLW is interesting for breakout
[09:25] {Threei}  I'd really prefer a pullback
[09:30] {Threei}  yeah right
[09:30] {ese} gm
[09:30] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:33] {Threei}  if SPY drops fast, take aggressive .55 break
[09:33] {ese} L ree .38
[09:35] {ese} out ree .59 +.21
[09:35] {Threei}  not ready yet
[09:36] {ese} nahhhhhh   I was totally ready
[09:36] {Threei}  lol
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:37] {Threei}  half lot
[09:38] {Threei}  change to .85 break if stays under .95
[09:40] {Threei}  in
[09:40] {Threei}  target .65
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .68 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop above .75 scalpers, .80 day traders
[09:42] {Threei}  wow
[09:42] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  1:2
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX, you blind?
[09:42] {Threei}  out SLW in full
[09:43] {Threei}  +.28
[09:43] {Threei}  cover FCX if breaks .90
[09:43] {Threei}  what the deuce... no news for such drop
[09:44] {RonS} chi pmi
[09:44] {Threei}  argh... forgot about them
[09:44] {Threei}  ty
[09:45] {Threei}  *(US) JAN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 60.2 V 63.0E
[09:45] {Threei}  FCX 1"1
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .86
[09:47] {Threei}  covered S LW too soon
[09:47] {Threei}  FCX, scalpers win
[09:49] {Threei}  watching SLW for bounce
[09:49] {Threei}  around .10 - .15 will be interested
[09:52] {Threei}  bottomed out at .16, lol
[09:53] {Threei}  changing my view on FCX to potential long
[09:53] {Threei}  amazing stamina in face of such market drop
[09:54] {Threei}  not anymore
[09:54] {Threei}  scratch that
[09:55] {pragmatic} :)
[09:55] {Threei}  watching MON
[09:56] {Threei}  long, half lot, looking for entry
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .70 break
[09:57] {Threei}  ugh, late by 1 microsecond
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .25 break
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:58] {Threei}  if you got MON, a) you are from planet Krypton and b) feel free to exit
[09:59] {stewy} no chance
[09:59] {Threei}  only earthlings here
[10:00] {Threei}  cons conf 61.1 vs 68E
[10:00] {dino} slw stopped
[10:00] {Threei}  no go SLW
[10:01] {Threei}  what happened to all shining economic numbers
[10:01] {Threei}  ok MON, this could be second chance
[10:01] {Threei}  remember, half lot
[10:01] {Threei}  .55 break
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .55 break
[10:02] {Threei}  stop under .45
[10:02] {Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {stewy} geez no fill
[10:03] {Threei}  huh? .56 and .57 were easy
[10:03] {stewy} nope
[10:03] {stewy} .57 and not filled
[10:05] {Threei}  either something is misconfigured so your orders are not routing out so they don't sweep all books,
[10:05] {Threei}  or your connection is a bit slow
[10:05] {Threei}  make suree route out is checked
[10:05] {stewy} ok. I'm using arca
[10:05] {Threei}  providing you are using Laser
[10:06] {stewy} no, LS
[10:06] {Threei}  oh... sorry, don't know about that
[10:06] {cc_8} i recommended nasdaq
[10:06] {Threei}  yeah
[10:06] {cc_8} if you are having trouble with fills
[10:06] {cc_8} a tad more expensive, but if your worried about good fills, nasdaq would be your best bet
[10:06] {stewy} yeah, it's not been a good morning!
[10:10] {Threei}  watching LVS for shiort into bounce
[10:10] {Threei}  also MON
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .25 break half lot
[10:11] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[10:11] {dino} wab sm l .22
[10:11] {Threei}  over 1:1
[10:12] {stewy} ahh a fill, a scalp, a smile
[10:12] {Threei}  whew
[10:12] {Threei}  I was afraid to ask
[10:12] {Threei}  :)
[10:12] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
[10:17] {Threei}  no go
[10:18] {Threei}  rinse
[10:18] {Threei}  bastard
[10:19] {Threei}  &^%#(^
[10:20] {ese} lol
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .20 break
[10:21] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[10:22] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:22] {Threei}  let's trail to .15
[10:22] {Threei}  this thing usually moves faster than this
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {Threei}  1:2 that was
[10:25] {Threei}  out
[10:25] {stewy} wow nice scalp
[10:25] {Threei}  life looks brighter stewy?
[10:25] {stewy} sun always shine above darkest clouds :)
[10:26] {Threei}  yes chairman mao
[10:26] {stewy} i guess i took brevity a bit too far, eh?
[10:26] {RonS} got mon for .21 thanks 3i  and lol re mao...
[10:27] {Threei}  :)
[10:27] {ese} cool bstop l ree .73
[10:28] {Threei}  that's ok stewy, let a hundred flowers bloom
[10:29] {ese} out ree .91 +.18
[10:29] {stewy} i also stopped looking at the P & L every minute
[10:29] {stewy} this doesn't help. i recall it from taoist.
[10:29] {Threei}  (if you look up the source of quote, you'll fully expect Lenin next)
[10:29] {Threei}  this is very good idea
[10:30] {Threei}  P/L keeps you focused on a wrong thing
[10:30] {ese} am outta here.......have an 8:30 class this term so it will be quick in the morning...cya tomorow
[10:30] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:31] {ese} cya vad
[10:33] {Threei}  http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ron-paul/failed-fed-policies-prolong-the-agony
[10:34] {dino} ceva sm l .38
[10:34] {dino} gappy
[10:35] {Threei}  rofl
[10:36] {Threei}  *Alert** S&P MUST TAKE OUT 1325 IF IT'S GOING TO GET TO 1330
[10:36] {Threei}  no &^$%
[10:39] {thomcbell} that quote is shocking Vad
[10:42] {stewy} nice catch on ceva, dino
[10:43] {dino} mnro spike
[10:46] {dino} ty
[10:48] {thomcbell} gdx in pivot zone here
[10:51] {Threei}  quite rekentless selling
[10:55] {dino} feels like selling is almost done to me
[10:55] {nemo} tna long here
[11:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  49 break
[11:01] {Threei}  stop under .90
[11:05] {Threei}  stop to .04
[11:05] {Threei}  .04
[11:05] {Threei}  .94
[11:05] {Threei}  sheesh
[11:05] {Threei}  don't like this tail topping out at 49.07
[11:07] {dino} klac sm l .65
[11:07] {dino} vrtx crazy
[11:07] {dino} hp drop
[11:08] {Threei}  out
[11:09] {thomcbell} qcom 58.84 short entry half lot
[11:10] {thomcbell} if holds 59
[11:11] {Threei}  what now?
[11:11] {Threei}  new wave of selling
[11:12] {Threei}  gkad I tightened LVS, look at it
[11:14] {thomcbell} qcom 1:1
[11:14] {dino} hp vsm l .40 wide
[11:17] {thomcbell} 58.85 stop on balance qcom
[11:17] {Threei}  wtg
[11:18] {dino} gj
[11:22] {thomcbell} qcom out
[11:25] {dino} out hp.06, +.66
[11:26] {Threei}  wtg
[11:26] {dino} ty
[11:39] {dino} out klac .96, +.31
[11:42] {stewy} vad, do you see strength in a wfc breakout?
[11:42] {Threei}  very much depends on broader market
[11:42] {Threei}  and SPY is like a jellyfish with brone spine
[11:42] {Threei}  broken
[11:44] {stewy} ok,
[11:44] {dino} etr drop
[11:46] {dino} gap 68.35
[11:49] {dino} filled
[11:49] {dino} hmmm maybe not, other chrt shows 67.90s
[11:50] {Threei}  67.90s here too
[11:52] {dino} that settles it
[11:54] {dino} ppo blood
[11:58] {dino} amcx spike
[11:59] {RonS} ppo sm l .06
[12:00] {dino} ugh aqmcx missed s by .02
[12:01] {RonS} out ppo .80 +.74  thanks dino
[12:01] {dino} wow, wtg
[12:02] {Threei}  nice
[12:02] {dino} bit of pulp, huh?
[12:02] {dino} csgp drop
[12:02] {RonS} the cue was that capitulatory volume bar
[12:04] {dino} yes, amcx sidetracked me
[12:05] {dino} ceva to .90
[12:07] {dino} out ceva .94, +.56
[12:13] {dino} out wab .94, +.72
[12:13] {RonS} gj
[12:14] {dino} ty taking a break
[12:16] {stewy} wfc not taken.  now 1;1
[12:21] {RonS} halts are criminal...vrtx has news it trades and then halted for news...you know the thing is trading off market...
[12:24] {Threei}  how?
[12:25] {RonS} direct placement
[12:26] {Threei}  not sure i understand
[12:26] {Threei}  who is counterpart?
[12:27] {RonS} people making phone calls...ppo sm l .60
[12:32] {RonS} Vertex Pharmaceuticals to host a conference call
[12:33] {Threei}  Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc FDA discloses approval for Kalydeco to treat rare form of cystic fibrosis
[12:34] {dino} news ppo?
[12:35] {Threei}  nothing fresh
[12:35] {dino} two day death fall
[12:36] {Threei}  initiated with sell yesterday
[12:36] {Threei}  by Axiom Capital
[12:36] {dino} by who, god
[12:36] {Threei}  lol
[12:36] {Threei}  judging from reaction, no less
[12:37] {RonS} 'jus ax me...
[12:41] {RonS} ppo l .01 ave
[12:42] {dino} nice
[12:52] {dino} that ppo is a mess
[12:52] {nemo} RIG HA
[12:52] {nemo} HAL
[12:53] {stewy} this rimm breakout reminds me of yesterday's rip
[12:56] {dino} kors spike
[13:03] {andj} Good morning...
[13:04] {Threei}  morning andj
[13:04] {Threei}  OK, I fon't get HAL
[13:04] {Threei}  don't
[13:04] {Threei}  Halliburton Co US judge rules BP is not required to indemnify HAL from punitive damage claim and penalties related to clean water act in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill - financial press
[13:05] {dino} also says they are required, two different news artocles'
[13:05] {andj} Hey Vad and nemo I was reading about direxionshares last night...sounds like they are trying to create volitility...
[13:05] {Threei}  mine says RIG is, HAL i not
[13:05] {andj} what does the 3x leverage and 3x short really mean?
[13:06] {Threei}  the higher number the more volatilty
[13:06] {Threei}  3x will move more than 2x
[13:07] {dino} required on cpmpensation claims not punitive claims
[13:12] {andj} Threei do you know what the 3x really means?
[13:12] {Threei}  leverage
[13:12] {Threei}  margin
[13:13] {nemo} plus they use calls and puts to create it
[13:13] {Threei}  underlying tool moves $1, derivative moves $3
[13:13] {nemo} in theory, not always exact
[13:13] {nemo} but....
[13:13] {nemo} ...it's more predictable then women
[13:13] {andj} so their portfolio is options
[13:14] {nemo} stock and options
[13:15] {andj} women...that's a totally different chat room...
[13:16] {nemo} hal
[13:16] {nemo} No....
[13:16] {nemo} that's a minefield
[13:16] {nemo} a bouncing betty minefield
[13:16] {nemo} you know what those are andj?
[13:17] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Net prevent value (NPV) losses in debt swap deal could exceed 70% - financial press
[13:17] {Threei}  - Reminder: In recent days the PSI deal has involved discussions of implied 70% haircut to debt
[13:17] {Threei}  lol
[13:18] {nemo} what
[13:18] {Threei}  we spoke about 70% being beheading rather than haircut... now turns out even that is not enough
[13:18] {Threei}  when will they call it default, at 100% only?
[13:20] {dino} well why officially default when they discount it 70%
[13:20] {dino} whole things a joke and germans got suckered bad
[13:24] {andj} what is a bouncing betty minefield?
[13:26] {Threei}  something very nemo-specific I guess
[13:28] {nemo} when you trip it, it bounces to crotch level and explodes
[13:28] {nemo} German invention
[13:28] {nemo} what's up with PPO
[13:30] {andj} this must be a guys only chat room...
[13:30] {andj} kind of like the locker room at 24 hour fitness
[13:30] {Threei}  at the moment, yes
[13:30] {Threei}  but nemo is rarely stopped by such nuances anyway
[13:31] {nemo} yeah, everybody can sit back and chuckle at my breaches of decorum
[13:31] {RonS} hearing vrtx opens in 3 min
[13:31] {nemo} You guys think it, Isay it, and take the heat
[13:32] {Threei}  http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts, ron
[13:34] {dino} pcar sm l .85
[13:36] {andj} I doubt any one is really mad nemo
[13:36] {Threei}  and if anyone us, do not think for a second it would give nemo a pause
[13:37] {Threei}  us = is
[13:37] {dino} wow ppo on a simple downgrade
[13:37] {nemo} hehehehehe
[13:40] {andj} So Threei...do you pull stocks off the Intelliscanner or are you only trading the direxionshares?
[13:41] {Threei}  no, many alerts are from scanner
[13:41] {Threei}  our morning plays on MON came from there
[13:42] {andj} Do you have any material on how to use the scanner better?
[13:43] {Threei}  I wouldn't know what to write in it, honestly... :)
[13:43] {Threei}  it's just a common sense:
[13:43] {nemo} and you don't want him typing anything out for you
[13:43] {Threei}  alets are coming in, look at the charts
[13:44] {Threei}  when setup is there, you got your trade
[13:44] {nemo} jeez...I sold ppo short at 42.19, it dropped $2 in 30 seconds
[13:45] {nemo} Merry Frickin' Xmas to me
[13:45] {andj} It's just that there is so much stuff coming through the scanner that I don't know where to start...
[13:46] {Threei}  well, first of all, you may want to tighten citeria
[13:47] {Threei}  for instance, I keep spread setting at 10 cents, to cover any risk tolerance of difference users,
[13:47] {andj} I can do that
[13:47] {Threei}  but if you don't play stpocks with spread exceeding 3 cents, you correct that and boom, number of alerts goes down multifold
[13:47] {Threei}  same for volume
[13:48] {Threei}  next step is determining which alerts you play in what kind of market
[13:48] {Threei}  but that's more about your strategy than scanner itself
[13:49] {Threei}  to give you an example
[13:49] {Threei}  in a strong upward market, one trader will p[lay breakouts
[13:50] {Threei}  thus he will monitor windows JBE, 2 days high break
[13:50] {Threei}  another one will want to find the weakest stocks to short them on market reversal or pullback
[13:50] {Threei}  so he will be interested in DBI
[13:50] {andj} That's what I need to know...which window for which situation
[13:50] {Threei}  and 2 day's breakdwon
[13:51] {Threei}  and divergence
[13:51] {nemo} spend some time watching...screen time andj...SCREEN TIME!!!
[13:51] {Threei}  but I can't tell you that
[13:51] {Threei}  I can only give you an idea how to approach it
[13:51] {nemo} Blood Sweat Tears Vaseline Time
[13:51] {Threei}  it's you who designs your strategy
[13:51] {Threei}  and yes, however painful it is to admit
[13:52] {Threei}  but nemo's right
[13:52] {Threei}  remember 10000 hours rule?
[13:52] {nemo} Yeah, I thought it was simple
[13:52] {nemo} I came into the room, I'll just follow Vad
[13:52] {Threei}  well, it is
[13:52] {nemo} Then the mirror that is the monitor starts teaching you about yourself
[13:52] {andj} I had been looking for JBE in upwards market and DBI in downwards markets
[13:52] {Threei}  but simple and easy are very different animals
[13:53] {nemo} Trading is simple...it's just not easy
[13:53] {andj} but how do you use capitulation and euphoria?  Aren't they after the fact a bit?
[13:53] {Threei}  of course
[13:53] {Threei}  you use them to look for reversals
[13:54] {Threei}  they are exhaustion moves
[13:54] {andj} Now I  get you...
[13:54] {Threei}  wait, let me show it to my wife
[13:55] {nemo} it's a signpost to show you to pay attention
[13:55] {Threei}  she says no one would ever...
[[13:56] {Threei}  reversals is dino's specialty
[13:56] {dino} pcar to .20
[14:00] {dino} out pcar .25, +.40
[14:01] {Threei}  lol
[14:01] {Threei}  Today: the 1st McDonald's opened in Soviet Union; 2 years later the Soviet Union was no more.
[14:02] {Threei}  now we know what did USSR in
[14:03] {andj} So you use the scanner to find a chart...then do you look at the level 2?
[14:04] {Threei}  sure
[14:04] {Threei}  level 2 is a good way to evaluate risk
[14:04] {Threei}  and fine tune entry point
[14:09] {andj} So chart patterns are the main decision making tool.
[14:10] {Threei}  korreqt
[14:14] {dino} wab sm l .00
[14:16] {andj} So when you see a chart pattern setting up do you save it somewhere for later...or do you just keep going back to the scanner ? (kind of a time management question)
[14:18] {Threei}  if it's complteted pattern and I only need a trigger, I prepare a rade and wait
[14:18] {Threei}  if it's in the process of shaping up, I'll kreep haklf eye on it
[14:19] {Threei}  and watch for another
[14:21] {Threei}  (GR) Writedown on Greece debt swap deal may come on Wednesday along with requirements from an official body beyond the private sector - financial press
[14:33] {andj} So do you have chart patterns you trust more than others?
[14:34] {Threei}  I don't know if I think of it in these temrs... I just have a few I use
[14:35] {dino} waqb to .30
[14:35] {dino} wab
[14:39] {dino} starting to think ppo wants oct ,10 gap at 36.25 area
[14:40] {dino} out wab .34, +.34
[14:40] {RonS} gj
[14:40] {dino} ty
[14:56] {dino} jll spike
[14:56] {Threei}  this will never end
[14:56] {Threei}  (GR) Greek negotiators said to be attacking EU and IMF behind the scenes in reaction to demands for more concessions - Guardian
[14:56] {Threei}  - Papademos said to be planning a crisis meeting on Thursday to respond to the joint negotiators from the EU that have been demanding stronger austerity before release of next bailout funds
[15:19] {dino} gotta hop, thx all for ideas
[15:19] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:22] {stewy} cya dino
[15:22] {Threei}  I have a feeling of market drop coming
[15:26] {Threei}  one try to use it
[15:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[15:26] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[15:37] {Threei}  stop to .15
[15:39] {Threei}  like watched pot, lol
[15:39] {Threei}  out with small scalp
[15:40] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:40] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tonmorrow
[15:40] {stewy} me too  nice scalp. thanks
[15:41] {stewy} gd night all

Monday, January 30, 2012

Jan 30 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 Another teeth-pulling day. We managed to squeeze little profit out of it thanks to a few afternoon scalps but it was too much like work to be honest.



Session Time: Mon Jan 30 00:00:00 2012
[09:03] {Threei}  OK... I give in to the idea of waking up and actually opening my eyes
[09:04] {dino} gm
[09:04] {swill} Ok
[09:05] {Threei}  dino, swill :)
[09:10] {stewy} gd morning vad
[09:11] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:14] {beau} good morning
[09:14] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {rambler} goodmorning...
[09:19] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:19] {rambler} how was the weekend?
[09:19] {Threei}  beautiful... until it ended
[09:20] {rambler} there's always a downside somehow...
[09:20] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/336522756382406
[09:20] {rambler} the ending part...
[09:24] {rambler} very interesting Vad.....but predictable
[09:25] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:25] {Threei}  Ron!
[09:25] {rambler} lots of unfunded liabilities to cover...
[09:25] {Threei}  how was your trip?
[09:25] {RonS} very nice
[09:25] {Threei}  cool
[09:25] {ese} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {Threei}  Greece issues are weighing down on market again
[09:29] {Threei}  keep half lot FCX ready
[09:30] {ese} CEDCCentral European Distribution Corp Signs agreement with William Grant And Sons for distribution of Green Mark, Zubrowka and Kauffman Vodka in the UK
[09:30] {ese} could be the deal of the century i think
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:32] {Threei}  let's tighten to .21
[09:32] {Threei}  out
[09:32] {dino}  fcx stopped
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .95 break
[09:33] {Threei}  stop above .05
[09:35] {Threei}  no go
[09:37] {Threei}  SPY can't decide which way
[09:38] {dino} 2433 first gap
[09:38] {Threei}  this looks like double bottom to me
[09:39] {dino} 1289 s/p 12421 dji
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break
[09:39] {Threei}  stop under .05
[09:39] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .09
[09:40] {rambler} course I missed this one...
[09:40] {Threei}  it pulled back right inti trigger...
[09:40] {beau} me too-hand still asleep
[09:40] {Threei}  1:2
[09:41] {dino} sm l cavm .50
[09:41] {Threei}  stop to .19
[09:41] {stewy} got fcx thx 1;2
[09:41] {Threei}  :)
[09:45] {dino} eog vsm l .75
[09:46] {Threei}  LVS, watvhing for pullback entry
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .75 break
[09:50] {Threei}  stop under .65
[09:50] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:50] {Threei}  1:1
[09:50] {rambler} missed...
[09:50] {stewy} yeah me too
[09:51] {Threei}  how do you send your order?
[09:51] {rambler} arca
[09:51] {stewy} arca here
[09:51] {Threei}  price?
[09:51] {rambler} 48.77
[09:51] {Threei}  .77 limit would have been filled on a pullback in the next second after initial break
[09:51] {stewy} i wasn't quick enough
[09:52] {stewy} but you gave us fair notice!
[09:53] {Threei}  FCX acts salmonish
[09:54] {thomcbell} shinook
[09:55] {ese} whats small for you these days dino 3 or 4
[09:55] {RonS} orthopedic salmon?
[09:57] {Threei}  FCX 1:3 hit, out last piece
[09:59] {dino} sm=4 vsm=3
[10:00] {ese} tks ...was looking at stm vsm
[10:00] {dino} vsm l nvo .36
[10:00] {ese} but i don't think it has that .40 that you look for
[10:01] {Threei}  (GR) EU leaders plan special summit in February to discuss Greece - financial press
[10:01] {Threei}  oh boy
[10:01] {dino} tough on the cheapies
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[10:01] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[10:01] {ese} ya
[10:02] {Threei}  CROX takeover rumors
[10:02] {Threei}  FCX invalidated but on radar for better entry
[10:03] {dino} www misses and spikes
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[10:04] {RonS} HEK sm l .05
[10:04] {Threei}  stop under .25
[10:04] {Threei}  very tight
[10:05] {Threei}  out
[10:06] {Threei}  sharp SPY drop, no news
[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .65 break
[10:08] {Threei}  play for SPY breakdown of .20
[10:09] {Threei}  stop is under .55
[10:09] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:10] {Threei}  let's trail to .59
[10:10] {Threei}  touched 1:1 too fast
[10:12] {Threei}  half out
[10:13] {Threei}  stop to .64
[10:13] {Threei}  come on SPY, let's see some panic
[10:17] {dino} 2433 filled
[10:19] {Threei}  OK, scalpers win this one
[10:19] {rambler} got that one...
[10:19] {Threei}  :)
[10:19] {Threei}  scalped or partialed?
[10:19] {rambler} scalp
[10:19] {stewy} nice scalp
[10:19] {Threei}  then you did better that I :)
[10:20] {beau} good scalp thx vad
[10:20] {Threei}  yw
[10:21] {dino} cohr drop, hooker
[10:31] {dino} vsm l cohr .12
[10:31] {Threei}  watching FCX for short into bounce
[10:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[10:32] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[10:32] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .10 break
[10:33] {dino} 07 green
[10:33] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[10:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:41] {Threei}  double top
[10:41] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:44] {dino} cohr at vwap
[10:48] {Threei}  no go
[10:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[10:56] {Threei}  just a scalp most likrly
[11:00] {Threei}  let's dump it
[11:01] {Threei}  market spike out of nowhere
[11:02] {stewy} with scalp, kept tighter stop on that one
[11:02] {Threei}  good idea
[11:05] {dino} out eog .75, +1.00
[11:05] {Threei}  wtg
[11:05] {RonS} gj
[11:06] {dino} ty
[11:06] {Threei}  watching TNA for pullback entry
[11:10] {Threei}  ideally, it loses 55 and consolidates above .90 for long entry on 55 break
[11:10] {dino} cavm slow, to .60
[11:11] {dino} out cavm +.10
[11:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  55 break
[11:13] {Threei}  no go
[11:14] {Threei}  needs deeper drop
[11:15] {Threei}  the weirdest news line in a good while:
[11:15] {Threei}  Outokumpu confirms discussions with Thyssenkrupp on Ixoxum business combination
[11:19] {swill} spy looks in climb
[11:21] {dino} rdwr spike
[11:21] {dino} bolt drop
[11:23] {Threei}  TNA rinse
[11:23] {Threei}  grr
[11:23] {andj} Good morning...
[11:24] {Threei}  morning andj
[11:25] {Threei}  RDWR takeover rumors
[11:27] {dino} thx
[11:28] {dino} things are slowing down
[11:33] {stewy} rimm climbs
[11:34] {Threei}  can't bel;ieve it
[11:34] {Threei}  was looking at RIMM fora while for .60 break
[11:34] {Threei}  and decided it was a vakid setup but too questionable of stock
[11:35] {stewy} oooh
[11:35] {RonS} RIMM Lazaridis is buying
[11:36] {RonS} greek god of throwing money down a rat hole?
[11:36] {Threei}  rofl
[11:47] {Threei}  GLD, half lot long from under .20
[11:52] {Threei}  German Econ Min Roesler apparently told the FT that a special budget commissioner would have veto power over the Greek budget, provoking a furious reaction from Athens. Meanwhile this morning officials at the Eurogroup summit concerned themselves with the draft of the new European fiscal pact and said they would not focus on Greece, only deepening the impression that Europe is not facing up to reality
[11:52] {Threei}  this "taking over Greece" stuff is incredible
[11:52] {dino} only thing moving is regn
[11:53] {dino} poor bastards should have required collateral, then they would already own greece
[11:54] {Threei}  SI
[11:54] {Threei}  beautiful chart for short but the spread...
[11:56] {stewy} done for the day
[11:56] {dino} giii drop
[11:56] {stewy} thanks vad
[11:56] {Threei}  take care stewy
[11:56] {dino} cya stew
[11:56] {stewy} have a good day all
[11:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[11:57] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[11:58] {Threei}  just a scalp
[11:58] {Threei}  stewy, you are not allowef to trade it, you already said good bye
[12:00] {Threei}  out .26
[12:04] {Threei}  anyone scalped it?
[12:04] {swill} yes. got 0.07
[12:04] {Threei}  cool
[12:05] {swill} ty
[12:05] {Threei}  sure thing
[12:05] {Threei}  frikin GLD never let us in
[12:05] {beau} only .04 thanks
[12:06] {Threei}  if decent size, it adds up
[12:06] {beau} will take any +
[12:06] {Threei}  now this must take a crown of the most optimistic headline of the day:
[12:06] {Threei}  (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Recent labor measures to be implemented will likely result in a general strike; hardest part of austerity has yet to come
[12:07] {dino} out nvo +.07 got greedy and blew off .40 on it
[12:07] {Threei}  look at this, seemikngly innocent message:
[12:07] {Threei}  EU leaders confirm agreement for ESM bailout mechanism; will go into effect in July; as expected
[12:08] {Threei}  isn't it amaxziong that no one is discussing bailouts anymore, it's just an acknowledged part of financial structure?
[12:08] {dino} dmnd drop
[12:13] {Threei}  GKD drops fast now
[12:13] {Threei}  looking for bounce scalp
[12:18] {dino} gkd?
[12:18] {Threei}  GLD
[12:18] {Threei}  sorry
[12:18] {dino} ohh, gkd no trades
[12:19] {Threei}  another pullback to .20 will give us double bottom
[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .20 break
[12:20] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[12:21] {nemo} .18 is vwap
[12:21] {Threei}  well, I am tempted to place stop at .15, but it's GLD... :)
[12:21] {Threei}  anyway, feel free to take scalp as you see fit
[12:22] {nemo} yeah, take the lunchtime scalp
[12:22] {Threei}  ekzaqtly
[12:27] {dino} qcor drop
[12:37] {dino} sm l .99
[12:41] {dino} stop -.19
[12:42] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .05 break
[12:42] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[12:42] {Threei}  target closer to .90
[12:43] {dino} wtg hits my stop and bounces
[12:45] {cc_8} the story of my life..
[12:45] {Threei}  lol
[12:46] {Threei}  out LVS .95
[12:47] {Threei}  taking safe scalps until market decides what to do
[12:47] {dino} qcor sm l .75
[12:53] {RonS} White House says the US is disappointed that some American citizens are not being allowed to leave Egypt
[12:54] {Threei}  "disappointed"
[12:54] {RonS} ...sidestory...obama orders hillary to pout in a corner until they are released...
[12:54] {Threei}  lol
[12:56] {RonS} White House says UN Security Council should not allow the Assad regime to continue violence against its people in Syria
[12:56] {RonS} ...Council says we have not done jack for sixty years why start now...
[12:57] {dino} bth drop
[13:02] {dino} qcor stop -.25
[13:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[13:11] {Threei}  .66 stop
[13:17] {Threei}  out
[13:17] {dino} fcx stopped
[13:20] {dino} nvo sm l .50
[13:23] {RonS} genius incarnate:  FEDS say.... low labor demand BIG cause of long term unemployment
[13:24] {Threei}  sigh
[13:24] {Threei}  iduiots galore
[13:27] {RonS} ...get a load of this...my wife's 54 year old oncologist is shutting down his three office, five doctor practice and quitting medicine due to O care...
[13:29] {Threei}  he doesn't even want to wait and see what Nov brings?
[13:30] {RonS} ...says he has better things to do with his life..."i am young and vigorous and plan to pursue other business opportunities"...
[13:30] {dino} cavm app hod, l break .84
[13:31] {RonS} still in .50 target .95...
[13:40] {Threei}  no news
[13:40] {RonS} out .95 +.45  cavm  thanks dino
[13:40] {Threei}  gj
[13:40] {dino} out cavmk +.09
[13:41] {dino} gj ron
[13:46] {RonS} ty...out hek .18  +.13
[13:46] {dino} out cohr .73, +.61 took all day
[14:04] {dino} qcor l .76
[14:07] {dino} clb drop
[14:08] {dino} out qcor .89, +.13
[14:14] {dino} clb vsm l .10
[14:42] {Threei}  server hiccup?
[15:02] {Threei}  market seems to be reversing... let's see if we get pullback on TZA
[15:05] {Threei}  looks some some routes lost connections
[15:06] {Threei}  3 mibbit timeouts at the same time
[15:07] {Threei}  now, here is hgih economic priority:
[15:07] {Threei}  US President Obama says considering pursuing free trade agreement between US and Georgia
[15:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[15:12] {Threei}  invalidated
[15:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
[15:15] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[15:20] {Threei}  mibbit is down for me
[15:31] {Threei}  SPY either makes a double top and initiates this TZA setup, oklr breaks out and invalidates it
[15:34] {Threei}  my target is 1:2
[15:34] {Threei}  but if you decide to take a scalp, who would dare throw a stone...
[15:35] {Threei}  mibbit is back up
[15:37] {Threei}  1:1
[15:43] {andj} Hey Vad...does TZA trade exactly opposite of SPY?
[15:43] {Threei}  not tick by tick
[15:44] {Threei}  but the generakl direction is opposite
[15:44] {Threei}  general
[15:44] {RonS} wab whacked
[15:44] {Threei}  if you superimp;ose their charts, you'll see high correlation
[15:45] {Threei}  high enough to be exploited, but not exactly identical
[15:45] {Threei}  , there is window of opportunity
[15:45] {Threei}  thanks to the delay between SPY move vs TZA move
[15:46] {nemo} careful here I like long
[15:47] {nemo} ok I'm out
[15:48] {Threei}  of TZA?
[15:48] {nemo} tna
[15:48] {Threei}  ah
[15:48] {nemo} took it long at .76
[15:48] {nemo} I think we're in death by a 1000 cuts market
[15:48] {nemo} so playing scalps
[15:48] {Threei}  didn't care to let us know
[15:49] {nemo} [15:47] {nemo} careful here I like long
[15:49] {Threei}  yeah, narrow range dictates scalps
[15:49] {nemo} maybe I should have stayed in oh well
[15:50] {nemo} too bad we didn't have screensharing, I could show you what I was looking at...Oh, I put that trade from Friday in the vid
[15:50] {andj} Do you mean narrow range of SPY or of the stock you are looking at?
[15:50] {nemo} with the chat text
[15:50] {nemo} narrow range of both
[15:51] {andj} thank nemo
[15:51] {andj} thanks
[15:51] {nemo} iwm spy tend to be relatively similar (not always) in their market meanderings
[15:51] {nemo} yw
[15:51] {andj} what is iwm?
[15:52] {nemo} it is the tracking etf for the Russell 2000...it is the basis for tna
[15:52] {nemo} and it's inverse tza
[15:52] {nemo} kinda' my bread and butter play
[15:54] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
[15:54] {andj} so tna and tza often follow spy and iwm?
[15:54] {andj} Thanks guys
[15:54] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:54] {nemo} iwm and spy are the index stocks
[15:54] {nemo} tna is the 3x leveraged tracking etf for IWM
[15:55] {nemo} tza is the 3x short tracking etf for IWM
[15:55] {nemo} I use a multi-time frame pivot analysis based method to trade them
[15:56] {andj} are they trading the indexes themselves?
[15:57] {nemo} iwm and spy are stock equivalents of the Russell 2000 and the S&P500

Friday, January 27, 2012

Market Week Wrap-up

Market Week Wrap-up

- A tone of uncertainty overtook global markets this week, as investors contemplated the ambiguous growth outlook for 2012. Trading pivoted around the FOMC rate decision and press conference on Wednesday. The Fed once again moved the goal posts on its "extended period," saying that rates would remain low until late 2014 (recall that it was only last August when the Fed introduced the mid-2013 language). It also tempered its economic forecasts, warning of lower US GDP growth and higher unemployment rates over the next two years. PIMCO's Bill Gross called the FOMC's low rate pledge extension the equivalent to QE 2.5 and suggested that the Fed may be preparing additional easing to boot. Before the Fed move, the IMF lowered its 2012 global GDP forecast (to 3.3% v 4.0% prior) and IMF Chief Christine Lagarde warned that the global economy could be in danger of sliding into a "1930s moment." Data out on Friday showed that US GDP grew 2.8% in Q4, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8% in Q3 and the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010, although still less than expected, and the quality of the growth was questioned as unsustainable inventory builds were a major contributor to the number. In Europe, negotiations between Greece and its private creditors were much in the news, and it appears that officials have set a final deadline of February 15th to announce a deal, with hopes that final details can be worked out this weekend. For the week the DJIA lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ gained 1.1%, and the S&P 500 was up less than 0.1%.

- About one-third of the DJIA components reported December quarter results this week. Caterpillar offered the strongest results of the bunch, bulldozing expectations and offering a very strong outlook for FY12. AT&T had the most fraught results, with a $6.7B quarterly loss largely from the breakup fee owed to Deutsche Telekom after the deal to acquire T-Mobile fell apart. Nevertheless, the company's iPhone sales were through the roof thanks to the new 4S model, and its other metrics held up well. Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, 3M, United Technologies, Proctor & Gamble and Verizon offered solid, in-line results, including decent y/y profit and revenue growth, although executives at the companies offered cautious comments about the business outlook for 2012. Boeing's profits were well above par, thanks mostly to a one-time favorable tax settlement, but the firm's initial outlook for 2012 was weak. Proctor & Gamble warned that earnings will continue to be negatively affected by higher commodity costs and said it would consider lowering prices in some categories to take back market share. Travelers' profits fell as lower interest rates impaired the firm's earnings.

- In the oil patch, ConocoPhillips easily topped earnings estimates as profits grew more than 60% y/y. Revenue grew sharply as well, helped along by higher crude prices. Shares of Chevron fell after a disappointing Q4 report. It's not like the analyst community wasn't warned - back on Jan 11th, the company cautioned that earnings would be down significantly on a sequential basis. In any case, both earnings and revenue missed the mark by wide margins, and the firm's US downstream operation lost money. Oilfield services name Haliburton modestly topped consensus estimates in its Q4 report, and for the year reported a 57% gain in profits over 2010 levels.

- Automaker Ford's profits in Q4 were lower than expected, although earnings were up on a y/y basis. Ford's European unit posted a $190M loss due primarily to higher materials costs, while its Asia Pacific segment lost $83M related to the impact of flooding in Thailand.

- The Nasdaq outperformed other major US indices this week largely on the strength of Apple's Q1 results, with both earnings and revenue absolutely demolishing consensus expectations (earnings were up more than 50% y/y) and driving Apple shares to fresh all time highs. iPhone shipments also blew out expectations, at 37 million units, up 128% y/y. Apple itself even seemed surprised by the results, noting that sales of iOS devices were "stunning" and saying that customer demand was "off the charts" in the quarter. Netflix closed out its FY11 with a bang, crushing earnings and revenue expectations. However, the firm also warned that would see losses throughout FY12, with continuing attrition in its DVD subscriber base. Texas Instruments results were weak thanks to various charges associated with the National Semi acquisition and factory closures. Executive said the semi business would rebound in 2012, with a resumption of demand across a broad range of products and the inventory correction cycle bottoming out.

- Negotiations between the Greek government and its private creditors were a major focus this week. Talks between the two sides have been ongoing for months, and by Friday, the Greek finance minister stated that the final deadline for a deal was February 15th. At the Ecofin meeting on Tuesday, euro zone finance ministers hashed out the debt restructuring terms they could accept. Creditors, represented by the Institute of International Finance's (IIF) made their maximum offer, although the real outstanding issue was whether Greece would apply a collective action clause, which would force creditors to accept a write-down or whether the deal would remain "voluntary." The other major outstanding issue is the coupon on the new debt to be issued, while various legal issues are also seen as potential hurdles to an agreement. The talks stalled several times throughout the week, but optimism about the changes for a deal remained in place heading into the weekend. There is still plenty of skepticism about Greece, deal or no deal. German Chancellor Merkel said that she did not believe the existing multibillion dollar bailout coupled with austerity measures were working after two years of crisis. Meanwhile S&P's Chambers said that Greece would likely be downgraded to selective default in the first half of 2012, calling the move a matter of "when, not if."

- The FOMC post-rate decision statement determined the fate of the greenback this week. Analysts said that if the committee adopted inflation targeting, EUR/USD could retake the 1.3250 area, while no inflation targeting would provide the EUR/USD with momentum to test the low 1.2800's. The Fed explicitly committed itself to an inflation target with the decision, and EUR/USD was above 1.3200 by Friday. The extension of the extended period to 2014 didn't help the dollar, either, and by week's end the greenback was at one-month lows against the GBP and two-month lows against the CHF. Note also that euro short positions hit their fourth consecutive weekly high.

- The yen began the week on a softer note, aided by comments from BoJ Chief Shirakawa, who said he was still concerned about yen strength, causing the usual intervention jitters. The looming Japanese fiscal year-end could also be prompting Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity. JPY continued it soft tone against the majors following the country's first annual trade deficit in over 30 years. Traders cautioned against reading too much of "competitive decline" into the trade figures, given Japan's current account remains in surplus. Nevertheless, many took it as a cue to unwind bullish bets on the Japanese currency.

- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate at 2.50% as expected, reiterating its concerns over the impact of the European debt crisis and uncertain global economic conditions. RBNZ also cut its assessment for inflation entrenched below 2% while pointing to the recent strength of NZD weighing on exporters, effectively deflating any outside chance of a rate hike over the medium term. In Australia, quarterly inflation metrics for Q4 were mixed, with headline CPI coming in flat but trimmed mean (core) metrics showing a surprising increase to 0.6% from 0.4% q/q. Inflation data makes the case for another RBA rate cut on February 7th slightly less certain, even though fixed income markets continued to price in an above-80% chance of a 3rd consecutive 25bps easing.

Jan 27 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 Wanted to finish a good week on a good note but that wasn't in cards. Narrow low volume day, our patterns didn't work, a lot of rinses. Ended in red. Oh well. 


Session Time: Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 2012
[09:03] {Threei}  good morning
[09:03] {nemo} don't start that again
[09:03] {Threei}  there you go
[09:03] {nemo} stop provoking me
[09:04] {Threei}  sorry...
[09:04] {Threei}  no, I am not
[09:04] {nemo} no you're not
[09:04] {Threei}  :)
[09:04] {nemo} New Year's tonight...have to take a nap later
[09:04] {nemo} lining up my hangover remedies
[09:05] {Threei}  Chinese?
[09:05] {nemo} Y
[09:05] {Threei}  and you have to do with it what exactly?
[09:05] {Threei}  oh, temple
[09:06] {Threei}  got it
[09:06] {JK13} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  JK :)
[09:06] {nemo} pheww
[09:06] {nemo} were you a blonde?
[09:06] {Threei}  sorry I am dense on Fridays
[09:06] {Threei}  and Thursdays
[09:06] {Threei}  most of Weds
[09:06] {Threei}  some of Tuesdays
[09:07] {Threei}  Monday's, I can tell spoon from fork
[09:07] {Threei}  Sat and Sun, I am very sharp
[09:13] {Beau} good morning you all on dense Friday
[09:13] {Threei}  lol
[09:13] {Threei}  morning beau
[09:14] {swill} morning
[09:14] {Threei}  swill })
[09:14] {Threei}  you OK?
[09:14] {swill} good to go
[09:15] {Threei}  ok... you haven't been here for couple days, and then I read in Times Colonist about these misterious sounds and ground shaking
[09:15] {Threei}  I immediately thought, it was you snoring
[09:15] {swill} it was my brain
[09:19] {rambler} morning...
[09:20] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:21] {Threei}  here it is: http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Whole+lotta+shakin+wasn+earthquake/6052624/story.html
[09:23] {swill} maybe it was the sun
[09:25] {rambler} saw a news report last night about a blast used to fuse metals for american military
[09:26] {swill} i hope it has a good effect on trading
[09:27] {rambler} apparently 2 companies do this just across the water from Victoria
[09:29] {Threei}  FCX short into bounce is first idea, half lot
[09:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[09:32] {nemo} I went long at .22
[09:32] {Threei}  cool
[09:32] {Threei}  out yet?
[09:32] {nemo} nope partialled at .48
[09:32] {JohnH} fading the host
[09:33] {nemo} no, huge holding offer, went whichever way it went
[09:33] {Threei}  with just a few cents stop, why not... risk-based trade
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:33] {nemo} yeah, my stop would have been if it dropped the held offer and didn't rebid
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:34] {Threei}  not yet
[09:34] {rambler} ouch...that wasn't fun
[09:34] {Threei}  FCX repeats yeetrday's opening
[09:35] {nemo} out .85
[09:35] {nemo} +62
[09:35] {nemo} .62
[09:35] {Threei}  wtg
[09:35] {nemo} ty for pointing out the held offer
[09:36] {Threei}  bid you mean
[09:36] {nemo} semantics, when I see all the green I think offer
[09:36] {Threei}  another spike to .80 for double top should give us an entry
[09:36] {_mark1} btw nemo nice trade
[09:37] {nemo} ty
[09:37] {nemo} frankly, that was the easiest type
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:38] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:39] {Threei}  sheesh
[09:39] {Threei}  no go
[09:39] {Threei}  or rinse
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  49 break
[09:41] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:41] {rambler} SLW ?
[09:41] {Threei}  grr
[09:42] {Threei}  disregard, wrong symbol
[09:42] {Threei}  told you... friday
[09:42] {rambler} LVS
[09:42] {JohnH} SLW looks good for a short at .90
[09:42] {Threei}  or long .96
[09:43] {JohnH} ahh the ambivalence
[09:46] {dino} out slw .08 +.12 ty vad
[09:46] {Threei}  yw
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: ABV  .95 break
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[09:49] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:49] {Threei}  there is no significant support down to about .50
[09:51] {dino} s2 36.75
[09:53] {dino} fslr
[09:53] {Threei}  market an't decide which way
[09:54] {thomcbell} auy setting up for a long here
[09:54] {Threei}  *(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 75.0 V 74.0E
[09:55] {dino} abv stop -.06
[09:55] {Threei}  out
[09:55] {Threei}  ok, not delighted
[09:55] {Threei}  slow climb
[09:55] {Threei}  my most hater environment
[09:55] {Threei}  hated
[09:56] {nemo} spy likely to 132.21 pivot'
[09:56] {swill} can i go home now
[09:59] {Threei} Short Setup: FCS  .35 break
[09:59] {Threei}  FCX
[09:59] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[10:00] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:01] {Threei}  are you blind, FCX?
[10:01] {Threei}  look at SPY
[10:01] {Threei}  finally
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {Threei}  stop for the balance to .31
[10:03] {Threei}  1:2 target hit, out
[10:04] {Threei}  capable of more but we need this sure win
[10:04] {rambler} yo...
[10:05] {Threei}  see swill... too easrly to go home
[10:05] {dino} cci
[10:05] {Threei}  let's dig ourselves out a bit
[10:05] {swill} fish in a barrel
[10:05] {Threei}  not really, lol... even this one made us sweat a bit
[10:06] {swill} lol
[10:06] {Threei}  that bounce back to the high while SPY was dropping was a bit unnerving
[10:07] {swill} live and learn
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[10:08] {Threei}  half lot
[10:09] {dino} cci vsm s .06
[10:09] {Threei}  stop under .30
[10:09] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:09] {nemo} .50 is pivot
[10:10] {Threei}  yes... LVS tends to overshoot though
[10:10] {dino} rmd?
[10:11] {Threei}  goopd report, upgrade
[10:11] {Threei}  no go LVS
[10:11] {rambler} durn..
[10:12] {dino} quad drop
[10:13] {Threei}  frikin ABV
[10:13] {Threei}  rinse
[10:13] {Threei}  by 1 frikin cent
[10:13] {thomcbell} auy 17.42 break
[10:14] {thomcbell} if holds 17.30
[10:18] {thomcbell} auy take a look at gdx
[10:21] {dino} wtf cci bstop slip by .10, out -.36
[10:21] {stewy} tcell in at the break on auy ty
[10:21] {thomcbell} 1:1 rising in agone
[10:21] {thomcbell} agony
[10:21] {thomcbell} lol
[10:22] {Threei}  good one
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  RCL  28 break
[10:23] {thomcbell} i partialled 1/3  + 0.14
[10:24] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[10:26] {Threei}  stop .93
[10:26] {thomcbell} 2:1 second partial
[10:26] {Threei}  wtg
[10:28] {dino} gj
[10:29] {nemo} played momo gdx break of .80
[10:29] {Threei}  sigh
[10:29] {nemo} out 57.10 on two lots
[10:29] {Threei}  not my day eh
[10:29] {dino} stop rcl
[10:30] {nemo} entered at .91 for second lot
[10:30] {rambler} dang...
[10:30] {swill} will be back in a while.  don't give up yet
[10:30] {rambler} good news we can drink tonight....sleep in tomorrow...
[10:31] {Threei}  shrug
[10:31] {Threei}  not a first losing day
[10:31] {Threei}  nor last I am sure
[10:32] {thomcbell} out on balance auy +0.25
[10:32] {Threei}  wtg
[10:32] {stewy} nice one tcell
[10:32] {dino} struggling here too
[10:33] {thomcbell} tu
[10:33] {Threei}  some days are like this... listless
[10:34] {dino} get this 1 of my 3 cpu died monday. now this morning the screen on my 2nd computer fried
[10:34] {Threei}  either direction appears and our patterns start working again
[10:34] {Threei}  or not
[10:34] {dino} i have this room on daughters netbook
[10:34] {Threei}  wow.. gremlins, dino
[10:34] {rambler} someone trying to tell you something...
[10:34] {dino} barely see it
[10:39] {Threei}  AUY starts looking like short on .50 break
[10:40] {thomcbell} yes
[10:43] {rambler} anybody take AUY  ..?
[10:43] {Threei}  yes
[10:43] {stewy} yes
[10:44] {Threei}  just a scalp for me
[10:44] {Threei}  stop .56
[10:46] {thomcbell} fcx really puked here
[10:47] {Threei}  don't even look at RCL
[10:50] {Threei}  out
[10:50] {rambler} what can we say about this day.....
[10:51] {dino} so far it sucks
[10:51] {Threei}  precisely
[10:54] {dino} bacpe
[10:54] {dino} jazz
[10:56] {nemo} guess I won't tell you about my day
[10:56] {dino} cci spike
[10:57] {Threei}  why... by all means do
[10:57] {Threei}  if it's a bad one, we will feel shared misrey
[10:57] {Threei}  if good, we will follow your next call
[10:57] {nemo} Killed FCX and GDX and have done my usual tna dance
[10:57] {Threei}  if today's market lends itself to your read, we want to benefit
[10:57] {nemo} shorted rig when it dropped .70
[10:58] {dino} gj nemo
[10:58] {nemo} and I even had to fix my computer
[10:58] {dino} that tna dance sounds hot
[10:58] {nemo} jeez dino
[10:58] {Threei}  lol
[10:58] {dino} :O
[10:59] {nemo} I have a real wise ass comment, but I have too much respect for dino
[10:59] {dino} lol
[11:00] {stewy} i'm thinking wfc breakout
[11:01] {Threei}  .35 break?
[11:02] {stewy} yes
[11:02] {Threei}  I am torn between "looks right to me" and "with my today's luck you don't want my endorsement"
[11:03] {stewy} understand
[11:03] {stewy} looked as if it wanted to lead xlf into green
[11:03] {Threei}  so... it looks right to me but with my today's luck you don't want my endorsement
[11:03] {stewy} ;)
[11:05] {rambler} any golf fanatics in the crowd...?
[11:06] {Threei}  ese
[11:06] {dino} i like golfing
[11:07] {rambler} brother in law just put out a golf book....
[11:07] {dino} hes l .09
[11:07] {dino} cool rambler
[11:07] {rambler} "Golf Shorts and Plus Fours"
[11:07] {rambler} Wayne T Morden
[11:08] {dino} any good?
[11:08] {dino} put you on the spot
[11:09] {rambler} know nothing about the game myself but .....I'm hoping it does well
[11:10] {dino} kmp drop
[11:11] {nemo} gdx dt
[11:12] {rambler} thinking the frustrations of golf and trading quite similar....?
[11:13] {nemo} nah
[11:13] {nemo} trading closer to the frustration of women
[11:13] {nemo} nothing compares
[11:13] {Threei}  why don't we focus on rewards
[11:13] {nemo} of women or trading?
[11:13] {rambler} or maybe the highs and the lows...
[11:13] {Threei}  anything
[11:13] {nemo} o.k.
[11:14] {nemo} TV dinners and hookers
[11:14] {JohnH} success with women, trading, or golf, which would you choose?
[11:14] {nemo} trading and golf
[11:15] {nemo} if I do well at trading, I can afford good hookers
[11:15] {dino} atrading, bcause once you get the money you can get the rest
[11:15] {JohnH} tony montana
[11:15] {dino} yes
[11:15] {Threei}  WFC works
[11:15] {nemo} yeah, great sister
[11:16] {Threei}  despite my endorsement, lol
[11:16] {Threei}  took a scalp
[11:16] {stewy} yep thats it
[11:17] {JohnH} 1:1? what was the risk level
[11:17] {Threei}  under .30 for me
[11:18] {Threei}  double shares, out .42
[11:21] {stewy} got the 1;1 scalp wfc
[11:31] {thomcbell} fcx 46.80 break
[11:31] {thomcbell} Vad?
[11:31] {thomcbell} 46.82 maybe?
[11:31] {Threei}  not sure
[11:32] {Threei}  chart is right but SPY feels wrong for a break
[11:32] {nemo} spy is walking along a weekly resitance level, IWM been running
[11:32] {nemo} UA running
[11:35] {dino} hes stopped
[11:38] {Threei}  glad FCX never triggered
[11:38] {Threei}  that would be a nasty trap
[11:39] {thomcbell} yes fugly
[11:43] {nemo} keep an eye on tna as it pulls back to the .30 area, if spy looks like it will move north, take it long
[11:43] {Threei}  .15 area looks more probable to me
[11:43] {nemo} especially if spy is already near .05
[11:44] {Threei}  but again... you'd probably want to go with nemo's read tofay rather than mine
[11:51] {Threei}  TZA
[11:51] {Threei}  if drops under 21, will look for entry
[11:52] {nemo} not alot of room below before resistance in iwm and spy
[11:52] {nemo} support
[11:52] {nemo} you also have r1 support for the weekly at the tna pivot
[11:52] {nemo} be ready to cover there and go long
[11:53] {nemo} now I could be wrong (the FWB tells me I'm wrong all the time)
[11:54] {Threei}  you could just as well be married
[11:54] {nemo} no, then you have to live with them
[11:54] {nemo} I can send her home or tell her not to come over
[11:54] {Threei}  but that would be wrong
[11:54] {Threei}  again
[11:55] {nemo} of course, but that's when I say "F' it"
[11:55] {Threei}  which is so wrong...
[11:55] {Threei}  OK, let's see
[11:55] {Threei}  TZA
[11:55] {Threei}  need a bit more selling
[11:56] {Threei}  some consolidation between .0- and 21
[11:56] {Threei}  .90
[12:07] {Threei}  who took it, feel free to get out here
[12:08] {Threei}  not counting on much, just a lunvhtime scalp
[12:08] {Threei}  and here for sure
[12:08] {Threei}  no news
[12:09] {Threei}  let's try to catch that TNA bounce
[12:09] {Threei}  one more leg down for me to get interested
[12:10] {rambler} was TZA a trade...?
[12:11] {Threei}  discretionary
[12:11] {Threei}  described it, with no exact call
[12:11] {Threei}  kind of - like it, take it
[12:11] {Threei}  [11:51] {Threei} TZA
[12:11] {Threei}  [11:51] {Threei} if drops under 21, will look for entry
[12:12] {Threei}  11:55] {Threei} TZA
[12:12] {Threei}  [11:55] {Threei} need a bit more selling
[12:12] {Threei}  [11:56] {Threei} some consolidation between .0- and 21
[12:12] {Threei}  [11:56] {Threei} .90
[12:12] {rambler} gottcha....
[12:12] {Threei}  the way this morning ent, you understand my hesitation to make confident calls
[12:13] {rambler} lol
[12:13] {Threei}  one of those days when patterns just don't work
[12:13] {Threei}  rare but unpleasant enough to make one hesitant
[12:16] {Threei}  .05 - .10 area is what I look for now for TNA long
[12:18] {nemo} I'm long from .28
[12:18] {Threei}  yup, your entry works
[12:18] {nemo} partialed .45
[12:19] {Threei}  11:44] {Threei} but again... you'd probably want to go with nemo's read today rather than mine
[12:19] {nemo} multiple levels there in both spy and iwm
[12:19] {nemo} I had bunny take the trade for me
[12:21] {nemo} anybody else take the trade, I laid out the strategy earlier
[12:21] {nemo} Hehehehehe...didn't think so
[12:22] {stewy} gd job
[12:22] {nemo} stewster....I publish the levels every week...very easy to follow
[12:22] {nemo} covering here
[12:24] {stewy} is that yer pivot analysis posted?
[12:24] {Threei}  every weekend
[12:24] {nemo} yep, and I give you the links to import the levels for the week
[12:25] {nemo} the only thing you have to adjust is the 50 and 200 day sma
[12:25] {stewy} ok i see it there at RT
[12:25] {Threei}  FCX didn't really bounce with SPY
[12:25] {Threei}  watching as possible short candidate
[12:26] {nemo} probably going to .80 area, that's where I'd look to short, but then you'd be dropping into that mess
[12:30] {thomcbell} this DLR is on my radar for a long
[12:30] {thomcbell} gets lumped in with eqix amt cci sbac
[12:30] {thomcbell} stocks are all on fire
[12:30] {thomcbell} market misbehaving though
[12:32] {nemo} market never misbehaves
[12:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[12:32] {Threei}  if stays under .65
[12:33] {thomcbell} gdx maybe too
[12:33] {nemo} jist ;pplomg at tjat
[12:34] {nemo} just looking at that
[12:34] {nemo} hal
[12:34] {thomcbell} nice tight stop
[12:35] {Threei}  target 1:2
[12:36] {dino} eog sm l.49
[12:39] {Threei}  if this one gets stopped, I am eating my keyboard
[12:40] {Threei}  which will be very unfortunate, it's a new keyboard and I like it
[12:40] {rambler} die spy...
[12:41] {Threei}  and I really doubt it's tasty
[12:41] {Threei}  hanging by the thread
[12:42] {Threei}  stopped
[12:42] {Threei}  bye bye keyboard
[12:42] {rambler} salt and pepper....?
[12:42] {stewy} not your beloved q key?
[12:42] {Threei}  and breadcrumbs
[12:42] {Threei}  bacon wrapping is likely
[12:43] {Threei}  4 good days, with yesterday being very good - and today I can't hit the sky while shooting straight up
[12:45] {Threei}  oh good FCX, NOW you are dropping
[12:46] {Threei}  btw, do you remember where I said RCL was likely to go?
[12:46] {Threei}  .50 area
[12:46] {Threei}  ,look at it
[12:48] {Threei}  and here comes FCX 1:1
[12:48] {Threei}  after a rinse
[12:48] {Threei}  shrug
[12:48] {Threei}  one has to know when it's not one's day and quit early
[12:48] {Threei}  1:2, which was intended to be an exit
[12:49] {Threei}  nemo, care to take over? :)
[12:49] {nemo} I have to take a nap for the evening events
[12:51] {Threei}  1:3
[12:51] {thomcbell} very nice Vad
[12:51] {Threei}  would be if it didn't rinse me by 1 cent
[12:52] {Threei}  1:4
[12:52] {Threei}  lol
[12:52] {thomcbell} dino about to buy some here fcx lol
[12:53] {thomcbell} slw showing very nice relative strength here
[12:59] {Threei}  uh oh
[12:59] {Threei}  Fitch on EU
[12:59] {Threei}  a few downgrades
[13:00] {Threei}  lowers Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia, and Spain
[13:01] {Threei}  quite subdues reaction
[13:02] {Threei}  rambler, look dcc pls
[13:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[13:02] {dino} ctct l ave .71
[13:03] {Threei}  stop under .30
[13:03] {Threei}  target about .55
[13:04] {thomcbell} slw 35.88 break
[13:04] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot
06[13:04] * Threei slaps pragmatic around a bit with a large alarm clock
06[13:06] * pragmatic I know I know
[13:07] {Threei}  I know you do... I just wanted to slap someone...
[13:07] {Threei}  and I can't slap nemo today
[13:07] {Threei}  he outtrades me about 4:1 today, si better sit down and shut up
[13:08] {pragmatic} cool
06[13:09] * Threei kicks FCX in the rear
[13:10] {pragmatic} keep kicking
[13:10] {Threei}  sheesh... like pulling a tooth
[13:11] {Threei}  gotta get every cent with plyers out of it
[13:15] {pragmatic} now it looks like .35 short
[13:15] {Threei}  very much depends on SPY
[13:16] {Threei}  and SPY is destined to bounce here, IMO
[13:16] {Threei}  this Fitch "news" begs to be faded
[13:17] {rambler} it's go time.....
[13:17] {Threei}  it so is
[13:17] {Threei}  rofl:
[13:17] {Threei}  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK3wMFiSq8U&feature=share
[13:20] {Threei}  what a struggle
[13:20] {Threei}  I need pragmatic's alarm clock... I should have overslept today
[13:20] {Threei}  right into Monday
[13:21] {pragmatic} can't give it back. You know, collecting...
[13:21] {pragmatic} I have two already
[13:21] {Threei}  ok FCX, stop this nonsense
[13:21] {Threei}  go already
[13:22] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .34, I think
[13:22] {Threei}  it takes way too long, gotta tighten risk
[13:23] {thomcbell} bvsn wow
[13:23] {thomcbell} nice 30 minutes
[13:23] {Threei}  look at its daily
[13:23] {Threei}  of course FCX
[13:23] {Threei}  whatever
[13:27] {thomcbell} SLW invalidated without trigger
[13:27] {thomcbell} about 10 minutes ago
[13:27] {thomcbell} sorry for late entry
[13:34] {thomcbell} ua just set up long again
[13:34] {thomcbell} not playing but nice patterns
[13:34] {thomcbell} 10 min and 1 minute
[13:34] {dino} out ctct .86, +.15
[13:36] {dino} evep vsm l .18 ave
[13:38] {rambler} missed EVEP...
[13:38] {rambler} offer at .20 and boom...
[13:40] {dino} gappy trader
[13:47] {Threei}  nice spot UA
[14:02] {rambler} .
[14:06] {Threei}  really want to find something easy and working
[14:07] {Threei}  grr
[14:07] {Threei}  thought of LVS .40 break
[14:07] {dino} fcx stop
[14:08] {Threei}  then decided, this is exactly the pattern which failed time and again today
[14:08] {Threei}  what do you know, this one worked like charm
[14:15] {dino} sina
[14:17] {Threei} Short Setup: MET  .20 break
[14:17] {dino} \teva drop
[14:18] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[14:24] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:27] {dino} cavm drop
[14:32] {thomcbell} ua beast
[14:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  GS  .20 break
[14:43] {Threei}  half lot
[14:45] {dino} cavm l .00
[14:47] {Threei}  stop under .10
[14:50] {rambler} Dino, you still in EVEP?
[14:50] {dino} nvo drop
[14:50] {Threei}  Facebook said to be exploring filing for an IPO on Feb 1; valuation estimated at $75-100B - financial press
[14:53] {Threei}  Jan 27 2102 - day I officially mark in my calendar as the day when I couldn't trade my way out of wet paper bag
[14:53] {Threei}  or type a year correctly
[14:54] {dino} out cavm ave .13, +.13
[14:55] {Threei}  now, how do I make it nemo's fault...
[14:55] {nemo} hehehehehe
[14:56] {Threei}  seriously, what was working today, 3 out of 10?
[14:56] {Threei}  and the worst thing is, out of those 7 not working, 6 were rinses
[14:56] {Threei}  care to look at GS?
[14:57] {dino} nvo vsm l.97
[14:57] {Threei}  know that feeling that market has a camera over your shoulder, to spot your tnry, shake you out, then go? That's what I feel today :)
[15:00] {Threei}  Greek PM Papademos tells Reuters he is optimistic debt swap agreement will be reached within days
[15:00] {dino} same here 3/8 w/2 open
[15:00] {Threei}  of course he saif the same for about 15 times over last 6 months
[15:00] {nemo} 8 for 8
[15:01] {dino} wtg
[15:01] {Threei}  dono... nemo has our lunch otday
[15:01] {Threei}  and dinner
[15:01] {Threei}  and supper
[15:01] {nemo} yeah well kicking myself for bidu
[15:01] {nemo} caught the lunch time bounce and only took a buck
[15:02] {nemo} off of vwap
[15:02] {Threei}  ok, now we officially hate you
[15:02] {Threei}  (I know I am making your weekend)
[15:03] {nemo}  lousy day to have to take a nap
[15:03] {nemo} interesting how spy basically languished and IWM near the highs
[15:06] {Threei}  looking at intraday SPY, I can see clearly why it wasn't my day: narrow range, no trend, low volume (about half of normal)
[15:07] {Threei}  NYSE volume 405M shares, about 9% below its three-month average
[15:10] {Threei}  last trade of the day:
[15:10] {Threei} Short Setup: GS  .20 break
[15:10] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[15:11] {Threei}  target 110.85
[15:12] {Threei}  if works - it won't fix the day but will give some moral satisfaction before the weekend
[15:12] {Threei}  if not - no point in pushing anything anymore
[15:13] {Threei}  shrug
[15:13] {Threei}  GSVC, dino
[15:13] {Threei}  GSVC Hearing financial blog making cautious comments, noting relatively small Facebook stake held by GSVC
[15:13] {Threei}  maybe your client
[15:15] {nemo} spy likely going to 132.21 pivot
[15:17] {dino} ty
[15:18] {dino} gsvc none avail'
[15:19] {dino} i froze nvo
[15:21] {rambler} LOL...
[15:21] {rambler} caps lock....no wonder I  couldn't get into my email acct...
[15:22] {Threei}  lol ramblet - it really is one of those days eh
[15:22] {rambler} no doubt...
[15:22] {Threei}  gremlins in dino's office
[15:22] {Threei}  caps lock for you
[15:23] {Threei}  disgusting taste of plastic as I chew through my keyboard...
[15:23] {rambler} how is that going......?
[15:24] {Threei}  started on the left edge, nearing the colimn of E,D, C now
[15:24] {nemo} COME ON!  Eat the "Space" bar!!!!!
[15:24] {Threei}  it's next
[15:25] {Threei}  if I move past the U J M, you know space bar is no more
[15:25] {dino} out nvo .80, =.17
[15:25] {Threei}  I may have to leave the numeric pad for tonorrow
[15:25] {rambler} dessert tonight....
[15:30] {dino} cha spike
[15:31] {dino} evep to .60
[15:32] {dino} out evep .61, +.43
[15:32] {Threei}  wtg
[15:33] {rambler} nice Dino....got some of that as well...tks
[15:33] {dino} gj
[15:33] {dino} cavm lod
[15:37] {dino} nvo sm l .99 last try
[15:38] {dino} ugh missed cavm
[15:40] {Threei}  OK guys, I want to leave this day behind anf forget about it till Monday
[15:41] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday, rested, relaxed and ready to resume a winning streak
[15:42] {rambler} sounds good, have a great weekend all.....
[15:42] {dino} cya vad

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Jan 26 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 What is it about falling markets that makes them so easy to trade... We manage to churn out profit on upward days but many of them feel like real work. Today, it's just like walk in the park, sometimes picking up money from the curbside.


Session Time: Thu Jan 26 00:00:00 2012
[08:31] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 377K V 370KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.554M V 3.50ME
[09:02] {dino} gm
[09:02] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:02] {dino} got lucky afterhours nuva short, cov at 15.72, +.53
[09:02] {Threei}  whew
[09:02] {Threei}  don't you hate these halts
[09:11] {stewy} gd morning everyone
[09:11] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:13] {stewy} nice photo profile, Vad
[09:13] {Threei}  thank you
[09:14] {Threei}  I feel like a frog about to burst of pride
[09:15] {stewy} still have the smena-6?
[09:15] {Threei}  do frogs explode when they are excessively proud?
[09:15] {Threei}  no... lol
[09:15] {JK13} good morning all
[09:15] {Threei}  jk :)
[09:17] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:18] {rambler} morning...
[09:18] {Threei}  rambler :):)
[09:18] {Threei}  hmm... one smile too many
[09:18] {rambler} hey..a double..
[09:19] {Threei}  hehe
[09:19] {rambler} going to be a good day...
[09:19] {Threei}  oh, I know... I am subconciously compensating for that "..." of yours
[09:20] {Threei}  it always looks like you are unsure of what you are saying... so I want to reassure you: yes, it IS morning :)
[09:20] {rambler} lol
[09:23] {ese} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {ese} wow.....the double smile.....thats ...thats like the sighting of a rare rain forest bug species.....
[09:27] {Threei}  lol
[09:27] {Threei}  ok, for those who missed it yesterday, last time before I stop buging you with that:
[09:27] {Threei}  http://www.sevenbyfive.net/photos/photo-profile-vadym-graifer/
[09:27] {ese} still L HDY .40
[09:28] {Threei}  biggest question before us is, is this rally sustainable or is it a flash in the pan
[09:28] {ese} I have that picture on my laptop......it's awesome
[09:28] {Threei}  :)
[09:28] {Threei}  I tend to think latter,
[09:29] {dino} sustainable until it isn't
[09:29] {Threei}  yeah :)
[09:29] {rambler} ditto...
[09:29] {Threei}  I mean before yesterday it was "exceptionally low rates to 2013"
[09:29] {Threei}  now it's the same but to 2014
[09:29] {Threei}  so what?
[09:29] {Threei}  how does it change anything today?
[09:30] {ese} agreed....the market goes up except when it doesn't......and goes down except when it doesn't....
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX
[09:30] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:30] {dino} really doesn't matter
[09:31] {dino} and remember, anything can happen
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .7 break
[09:31] {Threei}  sheesh
[09:31] {Threei}  no chance
[09:31] {Threei}  waitin for restest of the high
[09:31] {Threei}  ok
[09:31] {Threei}  same sxetup
[09:32] {Threei}  half lot of course
[09:32] {Threei}  stop .85
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  1:2, out and need new diaper
[09:33] {stewy} nice catch
[09:33] {Threei}  very hard to execute though
[09:34] {stewy} uh, yeah
[09:34] {dino} missed
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .35 break
[09:35] {Threei}  stop above .45
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:35] {rambler} can't short..
[09:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {Threei}  keep TZA on radar
[09:37] {Threei}  pullback to about .80 should be interesting
[09:37] {stewy} rimm sweet 1:2 out
[09:38] {Threei}  1:2
[09:38] {ese} out HDY .58 +.18 that made my day
[09:38] {Threei}  easy trade, no single uptick
[09:40] {Threei}  cr*p... no setup on FCX
[09:40] {dino} .50 resis, imo
[09:42] {dino} guess not
[09:43] {Threei}  abnormal volatility, even for this one
[09:45] {dino} wpi spike
[09:46] {Threei}  oh boy
[09:46] {Threei}  FCX Ticking higher on reports that workers have begun loading ships at Indonesian port, suggests Grasberg mine may have resumed production - financial press
[09:46] {Threei}  that's all??
[09:47] {dino} low rates for 2 years, hard commodity spike
[09:47] {Threei}  give us one more spike please for short entry...
[09:47] {dino} wpi sm s .49
[09:47] {dino} cov .90, +.60
[09:47] {Threei}  wtg
[09:48] {dino} ty, .59
[09:48] {Threei}  oh, .59??
[09:48] {Threei}  not so good job then...
[09:49] {dino} lol
[09:49] {Threei}  :)
[09:50] {Threei}  MNTA Weakness attributed to press report that Amphastar wins appeal in Lovenox case (related WPI )
[09:50] {dino} ty
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX, can't believe this one got away
[09:51] {dino} rnwk
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if stays above .75
[09:54] {ese} you thinkin short rnwk dino
[09:55] {dino} mnta drop
[09:55] {ese} did it ever
[09:55] {dino} yes ese
[09:56] {Threei}  no go TZA
[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays under .65
[09:59] {Threei}  bad numbers
[10:00] {dino} rnwk sm s .80
[10:00] {Threei}  Dec home sales 307 vs 321E
[10:00] {Threei}  leading ind .4% vs .7E
[10:01] {dino} mkts feels kike pop and now drop coming
[10:01] {Threei}  dropping nicely
[10:01] {Threei}  trail LVS to .61
[10:02] {Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {Threei}  TZA rinsed us
[10:03] {Threei}  6 cents stop is not a big deal but feels somewhat offensive, lol
[10:04] {Threei}  if dives to about .75, should give us another entry
[10:05] {stewy} lvs scalped thx
[10:05] {Threei}  :)
[10:05] {dino} hum sm l .50
[10:09] {dino} mjn
[10:10] {Threei}  PRI
[10:10] {Threei}  .30 break short
[10:10] {Threei}  nice setup, questionable volume
[10:11] {Threei}  half lot if you are tempted
[10:11] {Threei}  sayeth the serpent
[10:11] {Threei}  stop above .45
[10:12] {dino} vsm s mjn .80hum stop -.33
[10:13] {dino} mjn stop
[10:13] {dino} taking break
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: SLV  .70 break
[10:15] {Threei}  if stays under .75
[10:17] {dino} hum rinsed, things are whippy
[10:19] {dino} ioc drop
[10:19] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:20] {Threei}  first cover at about .62 - .63 and second - .56 - .57
[10:22] {Threei}  out first portion
[10:22] {Threei}  stop to .71
[10:23] {rambler} out...tks V
[10:23] {Threei}  out sevcond half
[10:23] {dino} mjn giant rinse
[10:23] {Threei}  double lot thanks to a tight stop too
[10:23] {Threei}  ese kind of play
[10:23] {stewy} ty
[10:23] {Threei}  welcome guys
[10:24] {Threei}  PRI, stop to .41 who went for it
[10:24] {stewy} in it
[10:26] {ese} which one vad?
[10:27] {Threei}  SLV
[10:27] {ese} pri
[10:27] {ese} slv
[10:27] {Threei}  small stop, big shares
[10:27] {ese} yes indeed
[10:28] {ese} as per the scalping video
[10:30] {Threei}  nugget of wisdom from Davos: "Strong economy is needed for the world to prosper"
[10:30] {Threei}  no really?
[10:31] {Threei}  you folks need to gather to surmise that?
[10:31] {Threei}  (GR) EU"s Juncker: Greece must aggressively continue its reforms and cannot give into fatigue;
[10:32] {Threei}  {Greece} leave me alone already, will ya?
[10:32] {JohnH} did you read this, funny: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/01/25/greetings-from-davos/
[10:32] {Threei}  klooking, but I am sure it's hilarious
[10:32] {Threei}  he has great sense of humor
[10:34] {Threei}  TZA, this is just insulting
[10:34] {Threei}  SPY turned red
[10:34] {ese} mrkt dropping
[10:34] {dino} ndx next
[10:35] {dino} stocks are pulp(y) today
[10:37] {dino} mjn spikes again
[10:37] {dino} mkts feels kike pop and now drop coming
[10:38] {JohnH} 10am seems to be the moment the pros reverse the market on the amateurs?
[10:38] {Threei}  more or less...
[10:39] {Threei}  I would rather put it this way:
[10:39] {Threei}  it takes about 30 min to fill most of overnight orders placed by "come from work, read the paper, place an order" warriors,
[10:40] {Threei}  then reality returns
[10:40] {JohnH} right
[10:40] {Threei}  but real time developments influence what pros do
[10:41] {Threei}  so it's not always "reverse on amateurs",
[10:41] {Threei}  sometimes they guess right :)
[10:41] {JohnH} last few days,first half hour has been weak,then moves up
[10:41] {JohnH} today, the opposite
[10:42] {dino} problem is with that, amateurs are almost nonexistant lately
[10:43] {JohnH} in terms of volume?
[10:43] {dino} yes, look schw results, trading down about 60%
[10:43] {dino} they have been blown up so much in last few years, they are gone.
[10:44] {dino} majority of trades are hft
[10:45] {JohnH} so if HFT volume rises significantly, amateur volume shrinks relative to HFT even if flat
[10:46] {dino} yes
[10:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  55 break
[10:47] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[10:47] {Threei}  no go
[10:48] {Threei}  nmore weakness, no bounce at all
[10:51] {dino} dji wants open gap
[10:52] {dino} pii sm s .29, stop hod
[10:54] {dino} hum drop
[10:58] {dino} cov pii .00, +.29
[10:58] {dino} too soon
[10:59] {rambler} beauty dino...
[10:59] {Threei}  wtg
[10:59] {dino} ty
[10:59] {dino} hum and hes getting interesting
[10:59] {rambler} wish I could figure out how you do that....
[11:00] {dino} ua blood
[11:00] {dino} i'd have to kill you if you did, :D
[11:01] {rambler} must be that 10,000 hours of practice thing....
[11:01] {dino} but seriously, just size down, it makes all the difference
[11:02] {dino} and yes, rambler, about 6 years of "harvard" cost education
[11:02] {rambler} lol
[11:02] {rambler} school of hard knocks....
[11:03] {dino} indeed
[11:04] {dino} rnwk not moving bstop to .82
[11:05] {dino} rambler, dcc for second
[11:07] {dino} hum db or collapse?
[11:07] {Threei}  feels like latter
[11:07] {dino} yeah, showing 85.15 next supp
[11:10] {dino} utek spike
[11:11] {dino} missed it
[11:13] {ese} L exel .22
[11:17] {Threei}  PRI is tormentingly ( is this a word?) slow, but moves in the right direction
[11:17] {stewy} ya molasses...
[11:17] {JohnH} torture is seeing TNA rinse
[11:18] {ese} excrutiatingly painfull.......
[11:19] {JohnH} I would like to see Vad try and type the word "excrutiatingly"
[11:19] {Threei}  easy: eksrushiatinqley
[11:19] {Threei}  there
[11:20] {JohnH} how'd you get a 'q' in there?
[11:20] {ese} lol
[11:20] {Threei}  simple: I have it on my keyboard, so I look for a chance to use it
[11:20] {JohnH} his left pinky has a mind of its own
[11:20] {ese} ya....i think thats whats gonna happen to me with excel
[11:21] {ese} exel
[11:23] {Threei}  ok, this is just plain wrong:
[11:23] {Threei}  Greek suicide rate now the highest in Europe
[11:23] {Threei}  it should be frikin Brussels, not Greece!
[11:23] {ese} go figure eh?
[11:23] {Threei}  THE SUICIDE rate in Greece has reached a pan-European record high, with experts attributing the rise to the country�s economic crisis. Painful austerity measures and a seemingly endless economic drama is exacting a deadly toll on the nation. Statistics released by the Greek ministry of health show a 40 per cent rise in those taking their own lives between January and May this year compared to the same period in 2010.
[11:24] {ese} hell...do these people don't know what it's like to put up with Stephen Harper
[11:24] {thomcbell} gdx trading wellnow
[11:24] {thomcbell} fcx 47.16 long Vad?
[11:25] {thomcbell} stop at 47.06 too much
[11:25] {Threei}  looks right to me
[11:25] {thomcbell} too little
[11:25] {thomcbell} im going half lot with 46.98 stop
[11:26] {dino} hum vsm l .00 break, pulp
[11:26] {ese} it's nuts here.......the last time i requested a military helicopter to pick me up and take me to a gig.....for crying out loud I got turned down.....sheesh
[11:27] {ese} yet Peter Mckay the minister for the military gets one all the flippin time
[11:27] {ese} whats that all about
[11:27] {ese} eh?
[11:27] {dino} utek spikes again'
[11:27] {Threei}  let this be our biggest problem ese
[11:28] {rambler} perks of the job...
[11:28] {ese} ya your right
[11:28] {Threei}  better imagine what this crisis would have been like if we had Stephan Dion at the helm when it hit
[11:28] {ese} i'll request just the limo next time
[11:28] {Threei}  poor chap wouldn't even know what hit him
[11:29] {ese} lol
[11:29] {ese} ain't that the truth
[11:29] {rambler} compared to jean creatins minions....minor
[11:29] {ese} ahhhhhh spring is in the air and i smell shiskabob already
[11:29] {thomcbell} dino lvs in risne territory
[11:29] {thomcbell} 49.15 pivot
[11:31] {JohnH} FCX requiring patience
[11:32] {thomcbell} beginning to like it more
[11:33] {dino} out hum .63, +.63
[11:33] {thomcbell} so get ready for us all to get stopped out
[11:34] {dino} tough crowd
[11:34] {ese} yup
[11:34] {thomcbell} 1:1 fcx
[11:34] {dino} lol, .63 isn't worth what it used to be
[11:35] {thomcbell} lvs dino thoughts?
[11:35] {thomcbell} too thinck a stock for you i know
[11:36] {dino} no,more vads thing. at this point in day i am capitulations and euphoria
[11:37] {dino} taking 10 minute break
[11:37] {ese} ya.......dinos' either very happy or sad.......
[11:37] {ese} ohhhhhhhh.....you mean stock movement........sorry my mistake
[11:38] {Threei}  lol
[11:38] {thomcbell} fcx 2:1
[11:38] {thomcbell} sold 1/3
[11:38] {Threei}  nice one tbell
[11:38] {Threei}  good setup, spotted it just right
[11:39] {Threei}  that 111 Trades thing works :)
[11:39] {ese} nice T
[11:39] {thomcbell} made another partial at 0.41
[11:39] {ese} good job
[11:39] {ese} whats' the 111 thing
[11:40] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[11:40] {thomcbell} have 1/4 fcx remaining with 47.29 stop
[11:41] {ese} hmmmmmm i still have to do that...........
[11:43] {ese} out exel .30 +.08 i'll take my 120 bucks and leave it at that
[11:43] {thomcbell} out fcx
[11:47] {thomcbell} qcom rinsing pretty good here dino
[11:47] {thomcbell} not perfect on lvs but 49.30 long entry
[11:49] {dino} .
[11:52] {thomcbell} wow fcx a beast now
[11:52] {dino} rnwk rinsed
[12:01] {dino} dropping
[12:01] {dino} 07 red
[12:03] {thomcbell} qcom rinsed near support
[12:09] {thomcbell} looking for double bottom entry on qcom
[12:09] {thomcbell} wld like a test but
[12:15] {dino} egn drop
[12:23] {dino} hes may be turning
[12:30] {dino} hes sm l .33 stop .19
[12:39] {thomcbell} watching lvs closely here
[12:42] {Threei}  bounce or breakdown?
[12:42] {dino} bounce
[12:42] {thomcbell} bounce
[12:43] {JK13} breakdown
[12:46] {Threei}  breakdonw
[12:46] {Threei}  we have a tie
[12:46] {dino} hes stop -.11
[12:48] {Threei}  (EU) Eurogroup's Juncker: Concept that the ECB may take losses on Greek holdings is not 'absurd'
[12:48] {Threei}  now, this is something we can finally agree on... absurd would be if they didn't
[12:50] {Threei}  CA) Canada PM Harper: Would like to complete free trade pact with the EU this year; to make efforts to reduce delays in energy projects in Canada - Davos Summit
[12:50] {Threei}  - Aiming to slow growth of Govt employee pensions as demographics are threatening social programs and services.
[12:51] {Threei}  hmmm... is he in hurry to complete the pact with EU this year simply because next year there may not be EU to complete a pact with?
[12:51] {dino} stmp spike
[12:51] {Threei}  JK, we lose
[12:51] {Threei}  dino and tbell win
[12:53] {JK13} too fast to high
[12:53] {JK13} too
[12:53] {dino} stmp sm s .71
[13:00] {dino} cov stmp .31, +.40
[13:00] {rambler} got that one....tks D
[13:01] {dino} wtg rammmmbler
[13:01] {Threei}  nice
[13:01] {dino} r2 is 31.24 vwap 30.84
[13:02] {dino} you should use the freestockcharts.com site for resis/supp/vwap. it helps if you are a chart trader
[13:02] {Threei}  and read nemo's little tutorial on pivot levels
[13:03] {dino} put stmp on it, it really shows you whats up
[13:03] {rambler} you bet...got that one....
[13:04] {thomcbell} oh Vad
[13:04] {thomcbell} this is all i wanted 2:1
[13:05] {Threei}  LVS?
[13:06] {thomcbell} si
[13:06] {thomcbell} setup was not clean
[13:06] {Threei}  yeah, told JK you guys win this one
[13:06] {thomcbell} but decent double bottom down there
[13:06] {Threei}  true
[13:06] {Threei}  it's an example of two-sided setup
[13:07] {dino} tru dat
[13:07] {Threei}  whichever side triggers first
[13:11] {thomcbell} really nice cup and handle on the 10 minute gdx
[13:14] {stewy} vad, pri still valid here?
[13:14] {ese} catch you all tomorrow
[13:15] {rambler} cya ese....
[13:15] {Threei}  nah
[13:15] {Threei}  take care ese
[13:15] {Threei}  PRI lost shape
[13:15] {stewy} ok
[13:15] {dino} cya ese
[13:15] {Threei}  scrap that lazy slob
[13:15] {stewy} bye ese
[13:16] {thomcbell} fcx very stingy today - no valid setups
[13:17] {dino} wow things have slowed down compared to this morning
[13:17] {Threei}  overall though, no slightest reason to complain today
[13:17] {dino} mur spike
[13:17] {Threei}  things worked nicely
[13:18] {dino} 3 bucks
[13:18] {Threei}  except that insult by TNA
[13:18] {dino} no complaints
[13:18] {Threei}  MUR has conference call going
[13:19] {Threei}  no, but TNA should know, we have it in for it
[13:19] {Threei}  just waiting for this dish to go cold, to get our revenge
[13:19] {dino} bummer, not avail mur
[13:20] {stewy} mjn wants to break?
[13:20] {dino} wow gave almost 3 bucks back
[13:24] {Threei}  U.S. Rep. Barney Frank to get married
[13:25] {Threei}  finally someone will make him an honest woman
[13:26] {rambler} can't even thik about that one...
[13:26] {dino} yuk
[13:27] {JK13} freddie Mac perhaps is the lucky one:)
[13:27] {Threei}  lokl
[13:28] {Threei}  my eyes...
[13:28] {Threei}  http://news.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?articleid=1398969
[13:28] {Threei}  retina-burning photo, click on 2 under the image in the right
[13:30] {Threei}  it all must be nemo's fault
[13:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  47 break
[13:35] {Threei}  standard stop, above .10
[13:36] {Threei}  1:1
[13:36] {Threei}  nice and easy
[13:37] {rambler} got it fine....tks V
[13:37] {Threei}  :)
[13:37] {JK13} thx Vad
[13:37] {Threei}  welcome
[13:38] {Threei}  this is total "money on the pavement" case... just pick it up while passing by
[13:38] {dino} gj
[13:39] {dino} dji filled open gap
[13:39] {stewy} nice to pick up change ty
[13:40] {JK13} C&H inverse in DJIA
[13:41] {JK13} 5min chart
[13:41] {Threei}  1:2
[13:41] {Threei}  over and out
[13:44] {Threei}  what do you know, PRI at 1:1
[13:44] {Threei}  what is it about falling market that makes it so much easier to trade
[13:46] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Barnier: Discussions on the Volcker rule will occur with US Treasury's Geithner; EC has concerns about its impact
[13:46] {Threei}  -- Barnier comments that there are concerns that the rule could have "extraterritorial consequences"
[13:46] {Threei}  - Reminder: On 1/11 reports circulated that Japan and Canada had warned the US that the Volcker rule could exacerbate a liquidity crunch
[13:46] {Threei}  extraterritorial? I heard Jupiter was very worried
[13:47] {dino} uranus too
[13:48] {Threei}  Pluto did have an opinion but no ione cares since it was downgraded from its planet status
[13:54] {dino} pru drop
[13:55] {dino} sm l .00
[14:09] {dino} out pru .20, +.20, bad entry
[14:11] {rambler} bit of a nail biter and I wasn't in it..!  gj...
[14:11] {dino} thx, my stop was .68, just about triggered
[14:12] {dino} would like to re-load around .75
[14:12] {dino} not going to give me a second chance
[14:13] {rambler} doesn't look like it will...
[14:18] {dino} 07 red
[14:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[14:19] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[14:19] {Threei}  tight stop doesn't mean I am looking for a scalp only
[14:20] {Threei}  just that if loses .35, I'll look for more aggressive entry
[14:20] {Threei}  aiming for 1:4, maybe more
06[14:21] * Threei kicks TZA in the rear
[14:22] {Threei}  out first portion .47
[14:22] {dino} gj
[14:22] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more around .55
[14:25] {dino} sweet
[14:25] {Threei}  need good new SPY plunge
[14:26] {Threei}  for TZA to finalize total break
[14:26] {Threei}  .50 is the last frontier
[14:27] {Threei}  come on, hold .40
[14:27] {Threei}  don't rinse second half
[14:27] {Threei}  ugh
[14:27] {Threei}  OK, scalpers win
[14:28] {rambler} dang...
[14:34] {dino} ugh pru
[14:36] {dino} gnc drop
[14:38] {dino} ctct drop
[14:44] {dino} why are oils getting killed?
[14:45] {Threei}  general move with market I'd guess
[14:45] {Threei}  dollar up, assets down
[14:45] {Threei}  I don't see anything oil-specific in news
[14:46] {dino} last couple days down 10% on lots of them
[14:46] {dino} w/oil at 100/brl, just seems to be a disconnect
[14:49] {Threei}  I'll write it off as "one of those things"
[15:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[15:08] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[15:11] {Threei}  invalidated
[15:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[15:16] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[15:17] {Threei}  don't want to spil beautiful day, so very tight risk plays only
[15:17] {Threei}  spil = spoil
[15:19] {dino} musa spike
[15:19] {dino} too fast
[15:21] {Threei}  same idea as last time... partial out closer to .50 and try to hold half for an ultimate break
[15:21] {Threei}  out half .48
[15:21] {Threei}  stop to .30
[15:22] {Threei}  .39
[15:24] {Threei}  this is our second shot at this break rambler
[15:24] {Threei}  feels like we will get it this time
[15:25] {rambler} I'ma hoping....
[15:26] {rambler} had half at .49   1 penny too high
[15:27] {Threei}  and here we go
[15:28] {Threei}  1/4 more out .55
[15:28] {Threei}  as planned last time around
[15:28] {Threei}  not sure about final target for the last piece yet
[15:29] {Threei}  above .65
[15:30] {dino} gj
[15:30] {Threei}  ty
[15:30] {rambler} out...tks v
[15:30] {Threei}  :)
[15:31] {Threei}  vwry easy smooth day with a lot of profitable plays
[15:33] {Threei}  ok
[15:33] {Threei}  out on a trail
[15:34] {dino} indeed
[15:41] {Threei}  OK guys, no more trades for today
[15:41] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:41] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:42] {JK13} see you
[15:42] {rambler} cya in the a.m......thanks all