May 31 2012

Very nice day with just one stop and many working trades. One deserved a screenshot (annotations are exhaustive): 

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html)  


Session Time: Thu May 31 00:00:00 2012

[09:10] {scottie} good morning
[09:10] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:11] {dptl} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:14] {Threei}  meek opening
[09:14] {Threei}  tried to pen positively, was killed by bad jobless claims
[09:15] {Threei}  claws slowly back to flat
[09:16] {ese} morning
[09:17] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:18] {ese} drugs...........drugs are the answer........although it doesn't seem to stave of dizzyness
[09:18] {Threei}  now we know howe FB IPO was concieved
[09:18] {ese} lol
[09:19] {Beau} good morning all
[09:19] {Threei}  under heavy drug influence and in dizzy state
[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {ese} B
[09:22] {Threei}  btw ese... look at AONE
[09:22] {Threei}  posted going concern yesterday
[09:25] {ese} just over a buck
[09:25] {ese} that'll be facebook soon
[09:26] {Threei}  lol
[09:26] {Threei}  I don'tthink it's that bad...
[09:30] {nemo} wow , Joy
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[09:32] {nemo} whippy
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {Threei}  change FCX to .25
[09:35] {Threei}  same stop though
[09:35] {cipher} out slw .50 thx
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out
[09:35] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:36] {nemo} cat must be down on joy news
[09:36] {Threei}  out FCX
[09:36] {Threei}  missed exit into spike
[09:44] {nemo} cat should bounce here
[09:47] {Threei}  watching GDX
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .40 break
[09:49] {Threei}  change to .30
[09:49] {nemo} this is very hefty spy volume
[09:50] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:50] {dino} cat sm l .35
[09:50] {Threei}  .25 break
[09:51] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[09:52] {Threei}  target .45
[09:53] {Threei}  no go
[09:54] {nemo} 200 sma on iwm here 
[09:54] {nemo} l tna .31
[09:55] {ese} L eln .19
[09:55] {nemo} out
[09:56] {dino} out cat -.10, market feels like big drop coming
[09:56] {nemo} yeah
[09:56] {Threei}  don't even look at FB if you don't want nightmares
[09:57] {Threei}  although it's ready for bounce
[09:58] {nemo} volume dropping on spy
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break hl
[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:59] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {dino} cat sm l .36
[10:01] {dptl} lgf .10 long?
[10:02] {Threei}  yes, if market continues up and it holds 13
[10:03] {dptl} ok
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:04] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[10:05] {dino} out cat .52, +.16
[10:08] {Threei}  die already SLW
[10:08] {nemo} l spxu .31
[10:08] {dino} value added research, ubs raises dhi to 16.50 from 14. its trading at 16.21 right now
[10:09] {Threei}  rofl
[10:09] {nemo} 1/2 .45
[10:10] {Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {nemo} think we go to 75 on iwm and possibly 130.20 area spy
[10:10] {dino} want to really laugh? kbw raises tol to 24 from 22. it trades at 26.50
[10:10] {dptl} out slw ty
[10:10] {nemo} stop is .23
[10:12] {nemo} out here
[10:12] {nemo} spy and IWM look like they're strengthening
[10:13] {scottie} slw +.08 ty
[10:13] {dino} gj
[10:14] {dptl} mpel .40long?
[10:15] {nemo} wow, iwm and spy are down the same amount
[10:17] {dino} tol l .50
[10:17] {dino} becn l .75
[10:19] {ese} theres no explaining those analyst guys.............gotta wonder how connected they are and what valuation models they follow dino
[10:19] {thomcbell} looking for an lvs entry here
[10:20] {nemo} they're failed fiction writers
[10:20] {dino} pretty much worthless
[10:21] {ese} yup
[10:23] {dino} out tol .65 +.15
[10:25] {thomcbell} lvs was too fast 
[10:27] {nemo} l tna .81
[10:27] {nemo} stop under .70
[10:28] {dino} pay sm l .50
[10:28] {nemo} 1/2 .91, big offer .92
[10:29] {ese} L fas .00
[10:29] {ese} 1/2 out .09 +.09
[10:30] {ese} stopped .91 -.09
[10:30] {ese} go figure
[10:30] {nemo} mmhhhh, anf short ?
[10:32] {ese} sucre blu..........fas ya piece a ......*&^&^%
[10:34] {nemo} 1/4 ore .00
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .75 
[10:39] {nemo} piy 
[10:39] {nemo} out .99
[10:39] {nemo} shoulda' taken last at .25
[10:41] {Threei}  half out .88
[10:42] {Threei}  stop to .79
[10:46] {dptl} chk .90 short?
[10:47] {Threei}  1/4 more out .93
[10:47] {Threei}  I think so CHK
[10:48] {Threei}  out FAZ in full
[10:48] {Threei}  not too shabby for 6 cents risk
[10:52] {dptl}  missed it
[10:52] {dptl} chk
[10:54] {Beau} nice one vad
[10:55] {Threei}  :)
[10:57] {Threei}  visual http://goo.gl/CVoS8
[10:59] {ese} out eln .00 -.19.....so much for that 1/2 lot too much drift for me
[10:59] {ese} cya tomorrow.....just one of dem days
[11:00] {dino} cya ese
[11:02] {Threei}  CHK was kind enough to go back and pick you up, dp
[11:03] {dptl} it was, but i was't there anymore
[11:03] {dino} stop pay -.20
[11:05] {Threei}  why not watch it for a second chance entry?
[11:13] {scottie} FB .10 ?
[11:15] {thomcbell} what a fiasco FB
[11:15] {scottie} invalidated anyway
[11:15] {scottie} Vad, was it a DB
[11:15] {dino} cat sm l .10
[11:15] {Threei}  yes, but without clear trigger
[11:15] {scottie} thx
[11:30] {nemo} tjx
[11:38] {dino} out cat .80, +.70
[11:38] {Threei}  wtg
[11:38] {dino} ty
[11:53] {thomcbell} long setup lvs 45.12 break if holding 45 
[11:53] {thomcbell} target is 45.40
[11:54] {dptl} rost .10 long?if holding 63
[11:54] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:54] {Threei}  something isn't right about it
[11:54] {dino} tol ml .45
[11:55] {Threei}  I can't quite pipoint it, dp... but something in me resists this trade
[11:55] {dptl} ok
[12:06] {thomcbell} lvs stop at 44.99 and possible go short opportunity because it has got nothing
[12:06] {Threei}  feels short to me too
[12:08] {thomcbell} i paired it in half on that spike - lvs 
[12:08] {thomcbell} negligible long position 
[12:08] {Threei}  good idea
[12:10] {thomcbell} out 45.19
[12:10] {thomcbell} it smells bad 
[12:10] {Threei}  hey, it's Vegas
[12:11] {Threei}  US household debt has fallen by $1.5 trillion total since '08; but student loan debt is up by ~$300bn during that time, says NY Fed
[12:12] {Threei}  Only 19% See Obama, Romney As Best Possible Presidential Candidates
[12:13] {Threei}  do the 81% have better idea?
[12:13] {thomcbell} oh well 
[12:13] {dino} out dhi .26, +.19
[12:14] {dino} out tol .65, +.20
[12:25] {dptl} pir?
[12:27] {Threei}  can't tell
[12:27] {Threei}  marlet switched to me least favorite mode
[12:27] {Threei}  me = my
[12:34] {Threei}  (GR) Rumors circulating on twitter that Greece now requiring govt approval for large wire transfers- The chatter is that wire transfers larger than �50K are now subject to approval.
[12:40] {Threei}  from what I see, market goes up and down with every new poll from Greece
[12:40] {Threei}  latest polls showed today that pro-bailout parties should form the government, and market went up
[12:42] {nemo} goldman knows something
[12:44] {Threei}  ?
[12:44] {nemo} when they took off market did, if they keep going soemthing is going on
[12:45] {Threei}  I am not sure about the connection about what they know and whnat their stock does... it's not like they aasign the price to their stock, is it
[12:56] {nemo} think they trade their own stock?
[12:58] {Threei}  don't know
[12:58] {nemo} I do
[12:58] {Threei}  but even if they do, it doesn;t mean they can command the price as they want
[12:58] {nemo} Do yo think they might know what info might affect their stock price?
[12:58] {Threei}  that's insider trading
[12:59] {Threei}  who needs that
[12:59] {nemo} I mean largermacro information
[12:59] {Threei}  there are a lot of ways to trade on their awareness without conflicting with law
[12:59] {nemo} yep
[12:59] {Threei}  right, so why would they chose their own stock for that?
[13:00] {nemo} not that the news is specifically about their stock, just how news might affect their stock
[13:00] {Threei}  toeing so close to troubles, while there are thousands of other vehicles... sahrug
[13:02] {dptl} tot .15 long?
[13:02] {Threei}  if SPY continues climbing...
[13:02] {Threei}  TOT mirrors it practically 1:1
[13:05] {dptl} ok
[13:06] {dptl} in
[13:07] {dptl} stop under .05
[13:12] {nemo} this should be a top
[13:18] {scottie} .
[13:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  22 break
[13:19] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[13:20] {nemo} gs droppin
[13:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break
[13:20] {Threei}  .20 sorry
[13:21] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[13:21] {dptl} out tot -.02
[13:22] {dptl} in tza
[13:24] {Threei}  FAZ 1:1
[13:27] {dino} out becn .85, +.10
[13:27] {Threei}  TZA 1:1
[13:27] {dptl} half out
[13:30] {dptl} out
[13:39] {Threei}  FAZ 1:2, out
[13:49] {dptl} slb .90 short?
[13:49] {Threei}  yes but half lot
[13:49] {Threei}  can be pulpy
[13:50] {dptl} in stop above 63
[13:52] {dptl} half out
[13:53] {Threei}  good spot
[13:57] {dptl} stop to .91
[13:58] {dptl} out
[14:08] {dptl} chk .65 long?
[14:09] {Threei}  with stop under .60
[14:09] {Threei}  why not
[14:13] {Threei}  uh oh
[14:13] {Threei}  NASA predicts our galaxy, the Milky Way, will collide with the nearby Andromeda galaxy in 6 billion years
[14:13] {Threei}  and market is going up??
[14:20] {dptl} in chk
[14:20] {scottie} Gotta go, see you tomorrow
[14:20] {Threei}  take care scottie
[14:29] {dptl} half out .71
[14:29] {dptl} stop to .64
[14:29] {dptl} offering .80 last part
[14:34] {dptl} out
[14:37] {dptl} chopy today
[14:39] {nemo} looks like we might get a run into the close, having said that, we're hovering in the area of the WPP for both spy and iwm
[14:40] {Threei}  (ES) IMF source is playing down reports of a Spain contingency plan; notes that it is 'normal' to look at a variety of scenarios - CNBC's Liesman**Reminder: Earlier today reports from sources indicated that the IMF was exploring contingency plans, including a possible �300B loan for Spain over 3 years. Prior to that an IMF official stated that there are no current plans for a Spanish bailout, but an economic review of Spain would begin on June 4. - Follow up 13:37ET: Spain Finance Ministry: there is no IMF bailout plan; not aware of any steps being taken by the IMF.
[14:43] {dptl} kss .25 long?
[14:45] {Threei}  nah
[15:00] {dptl} nem .95 short?
[15:00] {Threei}  I'fd rather go fir aggressive 47 entry
[15:01] {Threei}  smaller stop, easier entry
[15:01] {dptl} k
[15:01] {Threei}  also, how much coffee have you added to morning shot of vodka?? :)
[15:02] {dptl} lol
[15:09] {dptl} freaking chk
[15:40] {Threei}  watching if we get double top
[15:40] {Threei}  then FAZ weill be a buy round .50
[15:40] {Threei}  with stop under .45
[15:43] {Threei}  no chance
[15:46] {Threei}  this one really got away eh
[15:50] {dptl} fb?
[15:50] {Threei}  shrug
[15:50] {Threei}  can't short it anyway
[15:51] {Threei}  empty last hour
[15:51] {Threei}  fine day overall though
[15:51] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:51] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {dptl} gn

May 30 2012

Somewhat groggy day; started with nice wins, then misread the direction and went into negative territory, then hit the nice run and evened it out. All this work to finish about flat. Couple charts worth a look though:

Session Time: Wed May 30 00:00:00 2012
[09:06] {scottie} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:13] {ese} gm
[09:13] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:14] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:14] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:15] {ese} am not feeling that great this morning.......family came dn with that cold thing last week...thought I escaped but maybe not
[09:15] {Threei}  wow... in such beaytiful wetaher
[09:15] {Threei}  ummm... only spelled better
[09:15] {ese} lol
[09:16] {dptl} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:16] {ese} dp
[09:23] {Threei}  will be skipping first minutes
[09:24] {Threei}  no clarity about direction yet, and anyway many later in the day trades work more reliably lately
[09:26] {nemo} "many later in the day trades work more reliably later"
[09:27] {Threei}  why later? lately is what I meant
[09:27] {nemo} oy vay...shouldn't take sleeping pills
[09:27] {Threei}  as in "last xx days or weeks"
[09:28] {Threei}  sigh..some days I'll have to undertake this project, to teach you proper English
[09:28] {nemo} thanks Vad
[09:28] {Threei}  sure, fear not
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break hl
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:34] {nemo} right
[09:34] {Threei}  what? .58 was there for taking
[09:34] {Threei}  huge bid
[09:34] {Threei}  1:2
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .55 break hl
[09:36] {Threei}  ic .65
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:40] {scottie} +22 ty Vad
[09:40] {Threei}  :)
[09:40] {nemo} guess "deflation" is the watchword of the day
[09:41] {Threei}  awww
[09:41] {Threei}  too soon on GLD once again
[09:41] {nemo} if it's gonna bounce, it'll be here, otherwise, down elevator-express
[09:44] {cipher} tza l .42
[09:47] {nemo} it's awful quiet in here
[09:47] {cipher} out 1/2 .51
[09:48] {dino} gm
[09:48] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:48] {dino} new computer(march), dead
[09:48] {cipher} out rest tza -.02
[09:48] {Beau} ggj cipher
[09:48] {Threei}  this GLD bounce must be shortable
[09:49] {Threei}  volume dried up
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .10 break hl
[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:52] {ese} L tibx .22
[09:53] {Threei}  no go
[09:55] {cipher} +.06 tibx thx ese
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .35 break
[09:55] {Threei}  hl
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:55] {ese} welcome....maybe i should have taken that .06
[09:56] {nemo} numbers coming
[09:56] {Threei}  pending home sales...
[09:57] {ese} hmmmmmmm
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) APR PENDING HOME SALES MM: -5.5% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 14.7% V 22.0%
[09:59] {Threei}  oversat that LVS
[10:00] {Threei}  shaould have just scalped spike over .40
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:03] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:05] {Threei}  watching GDX for pullback entry
[10:06] {dino} gco sm l .45
[10:06] {dino} ttm?
[10:08] {Threei}  nothing fresh
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .40 break
[10:10] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:10] {dino} ttm sm l .03
[10:11] {ese} mornin dino
[10:11] {ese} was looking at that TATA motors also
[10:12] {dino} gm ese. ttm beats etc
[10:13] {Threei}  yeah, but it was yesterday early morning... and did nothing but go down ever since, with another gap today
[10:13] {Threei}  can you imagine if it missed?
[10:13] {dino} which is why i like it
[10:13] {Threei}  would be under zero by now
[10:14] {ese} L tibx some more avg .22
[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
[10:14] {Threei}  it's an on again off again setup, as SPY threatens 132 break
[10:15] {Threei}  invalidated again but may resurface
[10:15] {ese} daaaaaaaaaaaaa
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .60 break
[10:16] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:16] {ese} being up .01 and making $30 bills is not an option here...............vad use the stick for me will ya
[10:16] {dino} gco to .80
[10:17] {dino} out gco .81, +.36
[10:17] {Threei}  wtg
[10:17] {ese} nice dino
[10:17] {dino} ty
[10:17] {Threei}  TZA is on again
[10:19] {nemo} aig bid
[10:19] {Threei}  you really need to stop looking at those, nemo...
[10:20] {nemo} why?
[10:20] {nemo} drop of the bid was short
[10:20] {nemo} it's like telling me to stop looking at tits
[10:21] {Threei}  as much as I like the analogy...
[10:21] {Threei}  unless your intent was to scalp 3 cents, that's not a valid indication
[10:22] {dino} lol
[10:23] {nemo} well, when I looked it was a big bid at .12, it then dropped .14 to S2 on the daily, now, it rebid the level and has headed north
[10:23] {ese} out tibx .34 +.12 am taking my 360 bucks and am outta here...gotta lay down...cya tomorrow
[10:23] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:24] {dino} cya ese
[10:24] {dino} pay sm l .63
[10:27] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  90 break
[10:28] {Threei}  hl
[10:28] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:30] {Threei}  no go
[10:30] {nemo} it looks like the spy
[10:34] {dino} pay to .99
[10:34] {dino} out pay .03, +.40
[10:34] {Threei}  nice one
[10:35] {dino} ty, showed strength, took break of hod
[10:35] {cipher} wtg dino, I chickened out with a scalp
[10:36] {dino} ty
[10:36] {Threei}  Euro under 1.24
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  27 break
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:37] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:37] {thomcbell} fio
[10:38] {thomcbell} disregard
[10:38] {thomcbell} late start for me guys - gm
[10:38] {Threei}  morning tbell
[10:38] {dptl} in faz .02
[10:39] {dino} gm tbell
[10:40] {dino} ttm stop -.28, vad wins
[10:40] {Threei}  what do I win?
[10:41] {Threei}  door prize to be determined yet? :)
[10:41] {dino} a beer, standard bet
[10:41] {nemo} pay kept going
[10:42] {dino} yeah, trailed too tight
[10:42] {Threei}  cool... I lost a few of those to you lately, gotta even it out
[10:42] {dino} gco dropping
[10:43] {dino} ttm gap 19.78 area, jan
[10:43] {Threei}  come on FAZ... 1 cent to 1:1?
[10:45] {cipher} gco l .07
[10:45] {Threei}  stop .94 FAZ
[10:47] {Threei}  good time for a sharp drop SPY
[10:49] {dino} uh, oh. was thinking same
[10:50] {Threei}  that;s not ulti,ate uh-oh... it's when we find that nemo thinks the same as we do that is a real cause for alarm
[10:50] {nemo} damn, I was thinking long
[10:50] {Threei}  whew
[10:52] {nemo} pay hanging at daily pivot
[10:52] {dino} :O
[10:54] {Threei}  FB sudden dump, no news
[10:55] {Threei}  ok... it's really time
[10:56] {dino} drop
[10:57] {Threei}  whew... dino, we win
[10:57] {Threei}  need SPY to lose .85 to cement it
[10:58] {dino} bingo
[10:59] {Threei}  market is teetering on the brink
[10:59] {Threei}  and is about to fall
[10:59] {Threei}  frikin TZA got away
[11:00] {dino} sjt drop
[11:00] {Threei}  1:1 FAZ
[11:00] {Threei}  first part out
[11:00] {Threei}  still going for 1:3
[11:01] {Threei}  scalpers know what to do of course
[11:01] {Threei}  stop to .98
[11:05] {Threei}  ok... scalpers win
[11:06] {dino} dks sm l .51
[11:12] {dino} qcom sm l .75
[11:15] {Threei}  TZA, want to sxee it dropping under .40, stabilizing, then .40 cross for long entry
[11:16] {dino} qcom to .85, dks to .61
[11:20] {dino} out dks +.10
[11:21] {dino} out qcom .95, +.20
[11:27] {dino} pot sm l .00
[11:29] {Threei}  too long consolidation... change of plan
[11:29] {Threei}  letit slide toward .20 beofee thinking of long
[11:47] {Threei}  hmmm... original plan was better
[11:50] {Threei}  I don't feel we are to see immediate drop... bounce is my play here
[11:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
[11:50] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[11:53] {Threei}  .50 break should launch it
[12:00] {dino} gco sm l .63 ave
[12:02] {dino} pot stop -.21
[12:03] {Threei}  no go
[12:07] {Threei}  frikin FAZ
[12:07] {Threei}  had to rinze second half, didn't you
[12:10] {nemo} spy bounced right at WPP
[12:10] {nemo} think pay getting ready for another run
[12:11] {Threei}  wow... someone has a gift: The Pain in Spain Crushes Risk Again
[12:12] {nemo} gdx had qie a run off the bottom today
[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .65 break
[12:20] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:22] {Threei}  let's go SPY, bears got a bit too complacent
[12:22] {Threei}  as if Europe breaks down tomorrow
[12:22] {Threei}  meanwhile we probably have till Monday
[12:23] {Threei}  to me, SPY has a bounce to 132.5 in it
[12:24] {Threei}  which puts TNA to 48.70 or so
[12:25] {Threei}  if I am incorrect, nemo will set me right
[12:26] {Threei}  nope...
[12:26] {Threei}  misreading market
[12:27] {nemo} I'm looking for IWM 76.02
[12:35] {nemo} what precise downward trendlines on IWM and SPY
[12:43] {nemo} long .61
[12:44] {Threei}  ?
[12:44] {Threei}  on what?
[12:44] {nemo} tna
[12:44] {Threei}  this does look like a start of my bounce
[12:44] {nemo} YOUR bounce!?
[12:45] {Threei}  scroll up a little?
[12:45] {nemo} the blighter bloody well thinks he owns the market!!!
[12:45] {Threei}  sigh... bounce I was looking for - better?
[12:46] {Threei}  to read makes us speak English good
[12:46] {nemo} oh, I forgot, English is your second language
[12:46] {nemo} fire good
[12:46] {nemo} tree
[12:46] {nemo} good
[12:46] {Threei}  no... fire bad
[12:46] {nemo} 1/2 at .74
[12:46] {Threei}  tree good
[12:46] {nemo} oh, pardon me
[12:47] {nemo} it's the "stilleto pump" chart pattern
[12:47] {nemo} o.k. out of vodka,
[12:48] {nemo} no wine
[12:48] {nemo} can't drink the rum...it's a present
[12:48] {Threei}  need IWM pullback to about .20 for entry
[12:48] {nemo} nephew's percosets???
[12:48] {nemo} mmmmhhhhhh
[12:48] {nemo} wonder what would happen if I crushed up bunny dung and snorted it???
[12:48] {nemo} can you say bored....
[12:49] {nemo} I"m looking for IWM to 76.54 and spy to 132
[12:50] {nemo} pay might be long here too
[12:50] {nemo} long .71
[12:51] {nemo} stop is .59
[12:52] {nemo} target is 37.20 area
[12:55] {nemo} took half at .82, it's working too hard for this
[12:56] {nemo} stops are to be
[12:56] {nemo} b/e
[12:57] {nemo} actually, make sto on pay .64
[13:02] {nemo} bummer
[13:02] {nemo} today not much fun
[13:02] {Threei}  no
[13:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .22
[13:02] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:03] {nemo} ahhh...the quasimodo pattern
[13:03] {Threei}  lol, what the deuce is that
[13:03] {dino} qcom sm l .51
[13:04] {nemo} H&S or IH&S where the shoulders are not at the same level
[13:04] {Threei}  ah... lol
[13:06] {nemo} mmmmhhhh...pay puked
[13:20] {Threei}  I firmly decided it's not a scalp
[13:20] {Threei}  going to start partialing around .40 - .45
[13:25] {Threei}  1:1 for scalpers
[13:30] {Threei}  ok
[13:31] {Threei}  first partial out
[13:31] {Threei}  .43
[13:31] {Threei}  for once patience paid off
[13:31] {Threei}  stop to .19
[13:33] {Threei}  took patience in both, witing for entry on pullback to that .20, and in exiting
[13:33] {Threei}  friking 30 min
[13:33] {dino} bit of a rally taking place
[13:33] {Threei}  offering next piece between .55 and .60
[13:33] {Threei}  your QCOM doing fair too
[13:34] {dino} indeed
[13:34] {nemo} spy bounced off Weeky Pivot Point
[13:34] {Threei}  anyone follows this IWM?
[13:34] {Threei}  it's intended as a day-fixing trade
[13:36] {dino} not i, 3i
[13:38] {Beau} getting comfortable withlaser so paper trade. will they give me $ if I tell them I meant to be real?
[13:39] {dino} sure
[13:39] {Beau} oh well
[13:40] {Threei}  you need to get the famous "go back to paper if stopped, to real money if profitable" button
[13:40] {Beau} geat-- i'm looking for it. nemo probably hid it
[13:46] {dino} whr spike
[13:57] {nemo} nothing like August trading
[13:57] {nemo} vrtx retraced 10.00 in less than 2 days
[13:59] {nemo} make that 10.50
[14:01] {Threei}  second partial .56
[14:02] {Threei}  stop to .29
[14:02] {Threei}  day fix in progress
[14:03] {Threei}  offering last part above .70 for +.50 target
06[14:03] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large "MY BOINCE" banner
[14:04] {nemo} Hey! I caugtht the bottom, you just made more money than I did on it
[14:05] {Threei}  I also slapped you good
[14:05] {Threei}  that's 2:1
[14:05] {nemo} I'll shoot you better
[14:05] {Threei}  that's "ll"
[14:29] {dino} sfly spike
[14:29] {dino} whr spikes again
[14:30] {dino} whr us sets duties on korean washers
[14:34] {Threei}  it's almost an hour old news
[14:34] {Threei}  fresh reaction seems unlikely
[14:35] {dino} don't shoot the messanger
[14:35] {Threei}  no, just prividing a background to help with decisions
[14:37] {dino} ;)
[14:39] {thomcbell} long setup::  FB 28.16 break if holding 28.06
[14:39] {Threei}  I like setup... I hate the stock
[14:39] {Threei}  company
[14:39] {Threei}  site
[14:39] {Threei}  CEO
[14:40] {thomcbell} agreed
[14:41] {thomcbell} have never seen anything like this - i full fledged institutional community snub
[14:41] {thomcbell} will be case studies on it for sure
[14:41] {Threei}  there are lot of things went wrong with this one...
[14:43] {dino} seems to me they disguised a secondary as an ipo, as so many already had the stock prior to ipo. then they sold
[14:43] {Threei}  that looks to be the major underlying problem
[14:45] {Threei}  plus overestimating the demand, overpricing the IPO and overissuing the shares
[14:45] {Threei}  plus CEO being a kid
[14:45] {Threei}  plus MS botching a lot of things to keep the deal
[14:45] {dino} not to mention downgrading it at issuance
[14:45] {Threei}  plus NASDAQ botching first day
[14:49] {thomcbell} volume pattern still terribly bearish on FB
[14:49] {Threei}  and CEO is still wears hoodie
[14:49] {Threei}  is wears... sigh
[14:50] {thomcbell} keeping stop 28.06 for now b/c potential for a decent trade is there
[14:53] {dptl} pay short.60?
[14:53] {Threei}  I think so
[14:55] {thomcbell} stop to 28.09 on FB
[14:56] {thomcbell} i hit it out at 28.09 on fb
[14:56] {thomcbell} road kill
[14:57] {Threei}  probably to the best
[14:57] {Threei}  this thing doesn't look like it's going to hold 28
[14:58] {dptl} rost short .40?
[14:58] {Threei}  too narrow
[15:04] {Threei}  last piece is dumped
[15:04] {Threei}  didn't reach last target but no complaints on the trade
[15:07] {dino} amln drop
[15:08] {thomcbell} FB volume has really slowed down
[15:08] {thomcbell} no pressure on this dip in indexes
[15:15] {dptl} pay valid again?
[15:20] {dptl} short pay.59
[15:20] {dino} open spike
[15:24] {dptl} stopped...(one cent to 1:1 couldn't do it,sigh)
[15:30] {thomcbell} possible bear trap there with fb
[15:31] {thomcbell} i am leaving it alone however
[15:44] {dptl} gn all
[15:45] {dino} cya dp
[15:54] {nemo} spy can't get above vwap
[15:54] {Threei}  not a bullish closing at all
[15:54] {Threei}  softly speaking
[15:54] {nemo} no but it's above the weekly pivot
[15:54] {nemo} I'd call it neutral
[15:56] {dino} up 140 tuesday down 150 wed
[15:56] {nemo} so, big doji between the two days
[15:56] {Threei}  I feel general context is negative
[15:56] {Threei}  dino's right
[15:57] {Threei}  attempt at strenght got quelled next day
[15:57] {nemo} yep
[15:57] {Threei}  and even overwhelmed
[15:57] {Threei}  barring Greece bailing out Spain and Italy bailing out both of them pklus Portugal on top, down we go
[15:59] {nemo} buy more bullets
[15:59] {dino} thx all, gn
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

May 29 2012

Somewhat foggy after-holiday trading, but finished the day positive, and got this whooper of a trade:

Session Time: Tue May 29 00:00:01 2012
[09:03] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/ym8OT
[09:07] {Threei}  this article is almost 1:1 my view on the future developments
[09:09] {dptl} gm
[09:09] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:11] {Beau} good morning all
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {dino} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:21] {ese} morning
[09:21] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:22] {ese} Oak Bay Tea Party this weekend Vad.......my high school R&B band is playing from 6:30 to 7:15........cya there maybe ehhhhhhh?
[09:22] {Threei}  will be in Vancouver
[09:23] {ese} hmmmmmmmmm.........
[09:23] {ese} lecture?
[09:23] {Threei}  no, visiting friends
[09:23] {Threei}  nissing all your appearances... planning Sidney?
[09:23] {nemo} dropping off their monthly check, Vad?
[09:23] {Threei}  lol
[09:24] {dptl} lol
[09:25] {ese} actually ....The professional band is "The Midnights"  in Beacon Park again like last year ...Sunday July 8th
[09:25] {Beau} morning all
[09:25] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:25] {ese} nemo dp B
[09:27] {ese} hmmmmmm....Shiskabob party same day maybe..........than can just pop in after the concert
[09:28] {Threei}  you mean you are playing sober??
[09:28] {ese} welllll........yes............why do you ask?
[09:29] {Threei}  strange :)
[09:29] {ese} this is a question you should be asking nemo
[09:29] {Threei}  big gap up... people are foggy after long weekend... let's wait out few min
[09:29] {Threei}  I dpn't need to
[09:29] {ese} indeed
[09:29] {Threei}  with nemo it's not even a question
[09:29] {ese} lol
[09:29] {nemo} we
[09:30] {nemo} we're already almost at R3 on daily for IWM
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: BBBY  .40 break sm shares
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:32] {ese} out TOL .38 +.33  held it from last thursday
[09:32] {Threei}  sorry .55
[09:32] {nemo} feels like grind up day in absence of Europe news
[09:32] {Threei}  ummm... hardly pbtainable
[09:33] {Threei}  forget it
[09:33] {ese} still in DHI at .14 from last thursday
[09:34] {ese} out Dhi .24 +.10
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .90 break
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[09:35] {Threei}  yeah right
[09:35] {Threei}  teleportation
[09:36] {Threei}  this one is good for secondary entry if pulls back
[09:36] {Threei}  OK
[09:36] {Threei}  half put
[09:36] {Threei}  out
[09:36] {Threei}  that was nice to return for a pick-ip
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  DG  .10 break half lot
[09:39] {Threei}  out SLW in full
[09:39] {Threei}  DG stop under 48
[09:40] {Threei}  1:1
[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .40 break
[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:50] {Threei}  change to .35 break
[09:50] {ese} L TOL .31
[09:51] {ese} 3/4
[09:52] {Threei}  still valid
[09:52] {nemo} cat running
[09:54] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:54] {Threei}  stretches more and more
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .20 break
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:57] {Threei}  target .40
[09:57] {Threei}  wow, still not ready
[09:57] {nemo} data coming
[09:58] {Threei}  (US) Preview: May Consumer Confidence due out at 10:00ET (14:00 GMT)**Consensus expectation: 69.5e v 69.2 prior
[09:58] {nemo} x here
[09:58] {ese} out tol .41 +.10
[09:59] {Threei}  CAT looks to be a short on .50 break
[09:59] {Threei}  bad number
[09:59] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break hl
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 64.9 V 69.5E
[10:00] {Threei}  stop above .60
[10:00] {Threei}  no go
[10:01] {ese} dino...am eyeing WDC.....
[10:02] {ese} forget eyeing am L .38
[10:02] {nemo} mmmhh, didn't get filled on that jump over .25 on X
[10:02] {nemo} out
[10:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .80 break
[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:04] {nemo} cat long .71
[10:04] {Threei}  half out JPM
[10:04] {nemo} 1/2 .85
[10:04] {Threei}  stop to .79
[10:06] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:06] {Threei}  FB disaster continues
[10:07] {ese} out wdc .30 -.08 nope
[10:10] {nemo} 1/4 more .05
[10:11] {ese} nice nemo
[10:11] {nemo} ty
[10:11] {Beau} gj nemo
[10:12] {ese} awesome looking 1min chart
[10:13] {nemo} yeah, see that resistance .70 area?
[10:13] {ese} you screen for those
[10:13] {ese} look at it go
[10:13] {nemo} no, but cat is on my regular list
[10:13] {ese} same here but missed it
[10:14] {nemo} stop for last under 93
[10:15] {nemo} looking for .70 area on spy, we're probably close on iwm here
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
[10:16] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:16] {Threei}  and yes, it pains me to make this call
[10:17] {ese} lol
[10:17] {nemo} stop under .25
[10:18] {ese} in
[10:18] {ese} .23 crappy fill
[10:19] {nemo} out .55
[10:19] {Threei}  valid double bottom formation, but sheesh, I just don't like this stock
[10:20] {Threei}  yeah... for a good reason too
[10:20] {nemo} [09:33] {nemo} feels like grind up day in absence of Europe news
[10:20] {ese} stopped ,11 -.12 1/2
[10:20] {Threei}  I am talking about FB nemo
[10:20] {nemo} we have surpassed r3 on daily in IMW and .80 is it for SPY
[10:21] {nemo} yeah, and I'm talking about something else
[10:24] {ese} L wdc .51
[10:25] {Threei}  nice
[10:26] {ese} stop to .59
[10:26] {ese} tks
[10:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[10:27] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:27] {ese} to .65
[10:27] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:29] {ese} out wdc .76 +.25
[10:29] {Threei}  wtg
[10:29] {ese} gotta go cya tomorow
[10:29] {ese} tks
[10:29] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:29] {Threei}  *(US) MAY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -5.1 V +1.5E
[10:30] {Threei}  yikes
[10:30] {nemo} won't matter today
[10:30] {Threei}  shouldn't
[10:30] {Threei}  but the fact of such miserable performance
[10:31] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:36] {Threei}  let's scratch LVS
[10:37] {Threei}  it wasted its cnance to make new high
[10:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .90 break
[10:45] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:47] {Threei}  half out
[10:48] {Threei}  stop to .88
[10:50] {Threei}  out of bounds print
[10:51] {Threei}  that's why you dn't want to use automated stops
[10:56] {Threei}  break 27 already, will ya
[10:59] {Threei}  LOL:
[10:59] {Threei}  A little kindness goes a long way, especially during waterboarding.
[11:07] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  49 break
[11:07] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:09] {Threei}  Invalidated
[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  153 break hl
[11:12] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:13] {thomcbell} long setup FB 30.25 break if holding 30.15
[11:16] {Threei}  nice
[11:16] {thomcbell} 1:1
[11:17] {thomcbell} target is 1:3
[11:17] {Threei}  GLD 1:1
[11:18] {Threei}  dino's computer completely gave up or what
[11:20] {Threei}  1:2
[11:23] {thomcbell} FB 30.20 stop
[11:24] {thomcbell} out 30.21
[11:24] {thomcbell} made a partial at 30.35 but oh well
[11:24] {Threei}  good trade tbell
[11:24] {thomcbell} now the break of 30 should get it down 50 29.50 in a hurry if it breaks
[11:24] {Threei}  not many can say they made money on this stock, lol
[11:32] {Threei}  1:3.5, out
[11:32] {Threei}  WOW
[11:32] {Threei}  can I have some back?
[11:35] {Threei}  sheesh
[11:39] {Threei}  Euro under 1.25
[11:40] {nemo} took small tna at .61
[11:41] {nemo} pure flyer
[11:41] {thomcbell} lvs very nice action during recent market weakness last 20 minutes
[11:42] {nemo} ehh out flat
[11:53] {nemo} long fcx .15
[11:53] {nemo} small
[11:57] {nemo} o.k. out
[11:57] {nemo} starting to feel like another dorp coming
[12:00] {Threei}  FB lost 30
[12:00] {Threei}  train wreck of IPO
[12:01] {thomcbell} still waiting for a new long pattern to emerge
[12:01] {thomcbell} massive volume on that break
[12:02] {Threei}  damaged goods
[12:10] {Threei}  dino... gremlins?
[12:10] {nemo} stop talking about his kids like that
[12:11] {dino} no, real estate issues
[12:15] {Threei}  wow... things are crashing nicely
[12:18] {nemo} long might be worth a ry here
[12:51] {Threei}  (ES) Governor of the Bank of Spain Ordonez to step down on June 10th, one month early - financial press
[12:51] {Threei}  Ordonez: let me out!!
[13:21] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .85 break
[13:22] {Threei}  .96 stop
[13:28] {Threei}  1:1
[13:47] {dino} tsco drop
[13:47] {Threei}  no news
[13:48] {Threei}  who is ready for a good laugh?
[13:48] {Threei}  (GR) Austria Fin Min Fekter: Not possible to say if or when Greece will repay its debt
[14:11] {nemo} interesting, IWM held the uptrend I had
[14:27] {nemo} cat might be setting up short here
[14:46] {dptl} chk .10 long?
[14:46] {Threei}  looks right
[14:47] {dptl} in .11
[14:51] {Threei}  1:1
[14:51] {Threei}  nice
[14:51] {dptl} out
[14:51] {dino} lol, facebook, keeps dropping leveraged buyout may happen
[14:51] {Threei}  leveraged buyout?
[14:53] {dino} joke. investment bankers take it public, then help someone take it private
[14:53] {Threei}  ah
[14:53] {Threei}  lol
[14:53] {Threei}  nice gig... sell to public at 38, buy back at 10
[14:54] {dptl} pay DB?
[14:54] {Threei}  no
[14:54] {Threei}  hoddie wins over suits
[14:56] {dino} prx drop
[15:00] {dino} sm l .75
[15:00] {dino} stop is break lod
[15:00] {dino} stop
[15:00] {Threei}  what's the abbreviation for "idiocy and greed combined make for a disaster"?
[15:03] {dino} whats up w/prx
[15:03] {Threei}  don't see any news
[15:03] {Threei}  ah, here it is
[15:04] {Threei}  chatter of possible patent case loss
[15:05] {dino} sm l .98
[15:06] {dino} out .72, +.74
[15:08] {Threei}  wtg
[15:08] {dino} ty
[15:09] {dino} amrn spike
[15:19] {dptl} is that DB now ? pay?
[15:20] {Threei}  ?
[15:20] {Threei}  how is it DB?
[15:20] {Threei}  where is first and second bottoms?
[15:20] {dptl} .20 and now .20
[15:20] {Threei}  if anything, it's a DBI
[15:21] {Threei}  nah, it's just not the right configuration
[15:21] {dptl} you mean to wide beetwen two bottoms?
[15:22] {dptl} ye, now it looks like dbi
[15:22] {Threei}  well, for starters it'as a third one, not second
[15:23] {dptl} i am confused sometimes with db's
[15:23] {dino} gotta hop, thanks all
[15:23] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:32] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .70 break
[15:32] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:36] {Threei}  Invalidated
[15:37] {Threei}  let's modify it: same trigger, half lot, if stays under .85
[15:40] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[15:51] {Threei}  (EU) According to Pew Research polls conducted across 8 EU nations, the public is increasingly doubtful about EU membership and closer integration - FT (update)
[15:51] {Threei}  - About 8K people said to have been polled in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, UK, and Czech Republic in Mar-Apr period.
[15:51] {Threei}  - Only 34% said the single currency is a positive; Most respondents in France and Italy believe EUR has been a negative for their country.
[15:53] {Threei}  ending near the high... shrug
[15:53] {Threei}  I would prefer the opposite
[15:54] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you, have a good evening
[15:54] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {dptl} gn all

Nemo's findings for the week of 5/28

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 Here's what happened last week:

• The high for the week touched the Weekly R1 (WR1) on IWM-the risk on measure. .10 above the Monthly S2 level on SPY.
• The lows were bounded by the gap from Friday on SPY just below it's Monthly S3 level
• I ran a fib retracement from the low to the high for the week (aqua)
• I have also labeled all levels
• There is also a recent fib retracement from the swing high's of  May 1st to the lows of the 21st. (purple)
• There are longer time frame fibs, but these two are likely the most relevant.  The others I am looking to as confluence supports.
• Notice how the the action this week pivoted relatively uniformly around the WPP for each. Perhaps worth noting it is arguably a holiday shortened week.  How many of us showed up (sober) for Friday?  ;-) Under such conditions again, absent say, Germany leaving the Eurozone, could we expect such range bound action again?

Anyway, here are the levels (labeled) for next week, they are bounded by the S3/R3 levels for the week...

Lotta' lines, I know, but it gives you perspective on where we are.  Notice in IWM that the Yearly and Semesterly Pivot are in the same area as the Weekly S2, not very risk on at the moment.  Should we head south next week, that confluence area will likely provide support.  btw...on my screen I never have more than 5 days of data during the day.  SPY has the 200SMA just above the WS2, likely a strong area.  If you see, IWM and SPY approach those two areas simultaneously,  look for long setups...imo

Oh...one last thing, month changes towards the end of the week, the weekly levels should remain accurate.  Don't know that I'll have the new monthly levels until this weekend.

Market Week Wrap-Up

- The storm over Europe intensified this week as two high-level summit meetings failed to deliver any reassuring policies to help the euro zone deal with Greece. Officials at the G8 summit at Camp David and an informal EU summit in Brussels certainly had a lot to say before and after their meetings, but the comments hardly comforted markets. The main victims of the chaos in Europe have been the euro, sovereign spreads and commodities - major equity indices in both Europe and the US were highly volatile but all closed out the week in the black. With the yields on various safe-haven sovereign instruments at record lows, there was plenty of asset reallocation back into equities. EUR/USD was as high as 1.28 at its best point, before testing fresh 22-month lows at 1.25, while metals and energy prices were eroded by the strengthening dollar. Commodities were not helped by news that cooling China demand was forcing local buyers to defer delivery or default altogether on contracts for delivery of coal, iron and copper. Polls out in Greece suggested that a solid majority of Greeks want to "remain in the euro zone" but "renounce" the terms of the bailout agreement, leading them to support the anti-bailout Greek party Syriza which is polling as high as 30%. In Spain, the government struggled to deal with its regional governments' deficits and its problematic banking system. The estimated price tag for the Bankia bailout rose from around €4.5B coming into the week to an astounding €19B figure on Friday. There were reports that Catalonia was running low on cash and formally requesting a government bailout, however Catalonian officials claimed the comments had been taken out of context. The preliminary European May PMI data indicated further contraction is underway on the continent, while data out in the US was more heartening. The US April existing home sales number rose for the first time in three months, matching the high seen in the January data, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was the highest in over four years. For the week the DJIA gained 0.7%, the S&P500 added 1.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%.

- Investment banks JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley got beaten up in the press and by analysts this week, although shares of both banks closed out the week in positive territory. Various sources said that the losses faced by JPMorgan from its errant CIO office continue to mount as it struggles to unwind its big trade. Reports last week said the loss was around $3-5 billion, while this week UK press sources said the loss was up to approximately $7B. At a Deutsche Bank conference, CEO Dimon said that JPMorgan would not provide a running total of its losses, adding that the bank had suspended its stock repurchase program (for reasons unrelated to the loss, naturally). Shares of Facebook broke below the IPO price of $38 in pre-market trading Monday morning, raising howls of protest claiming that the entire process was mismanaged. On Thursday Morgan Stanley held a conference call with brokers and said that no retail clients would pay more than $43 for FB shares bought on Friday. Over at Nasdaq, multiple shareholders have filed lawsuits against the company for their handling of the IPO and there were reports that the CEO could lose his job over the affair.

- PC hardware names Dell and Hewlett-Packard headed opposite directions this week, with shares of HP steady and shares of Dell down sharply on the week. Dell missed expectations in its Q1 report and offered a weak forecast for Q2. Dell warned that it is seeing a tougher environment for PCs and servers even as sales of services, networks and storage have remained strong. HP beat estimates and raised its FY12 outlook, although its margins continue to be well under trend and revenue in the printing business is down nearly 10% y/y. HP also confirmed that it would look to lay off about 8% of its workforce over the next several years, as part of its ongoing transformation plan.

- Among retail earnings, one of the biggest losers this week was Tiffany. The high-end retailer's earnings and revenue totals missed expectations, sales comps in the US and Europe were flat (the New York flagship store's SSS was -4%) and it slashed its FY12 outlook. Apparel names Ralph Lauren and American Eagle Outfitters had very strong Q1s, with excellent comps driving outperformance. There were no surprises in Costco's report, with earnings and sales growth meeting the consensus view, on solid comps. Best Buy handily beat profit targets but also saw another quarter of big declines in sales comps.

- In M&A news, manufacturing conglomerate Eaton Corporation said it would acquire Cooper Industries for $11.8B, making it Eaton's biggest buy ever. Cooper, based in Ireland, offers a broad range of electrical products, lighting and wiring devices. Sycamore Partners informed Talbots that it is not willing to follow through on the previously agreed upon acquisition deal following the expiration of the go-shop period and Talbots said it was exploring other strategic options. Google completed its $12.5 billion purchase of Motorola Mobility after getting the green light from Chinese regulators.

- The euro resumed its May meltdown on Tuesday morning after a brief, hopeful pause that accompanied the G8 summit over the weekend. There had been vague talk of "coordinated measures" to help Europe, however nothing but empty rhetoric emerged from the event. Monday saw EUR/USD hold the 1.2800 level, but after that downside momentum was unrelenting. European leaders met for an "informal summit" on Wednesday, and hopes ran high that some consensus on euro bonds might emerge. Ahead of the meeting, the German Bundesbank stated that the euro could "handle" a Greek exit but warned that it would be "challenging," and the EUR/USD gave up a big figure in an hour, dropping from 1.2680 to 1.2580. The January low in EUR/USD was 1.2622, and the cross struggled to retake the level mid week, however it plumbed 22-week lows just above 1.2500 through Friday's close. Various analysts now assert that the ECB refi rate should be cut from the 1.00% level in coming quarters, with another three-year LTRO operation looking more likely.

- Sterling was softer following very soft UK April CPI data. Year over year CPI came in at 3.0%, just below the threshold that has compelled the BOE to send a required explanatory letter to the Exchequer each of the last 10 quarters. GBP/USD dipped below the 1.57 handle following the CPI report, making two-month lows. The Swiss National Bank's EUR/CHF floor at 1.200 continued to see a massive bid in its defense. The frank bounced off the 1.2000 floor as several convenient rumors weakened the franc and tested two-month highs above 1.2070. Traders circulated talk of a possible tax on Swiss bank deposits to discourage hot money flows.

- The Japanese Yen briefly came under pressure after a two-notch cut of Japan's sovereign rating to A+ early on Tuesday. USD/JPY briefly rose above the ¥80 handle, but quickly retreated back toward ¥79 after the Bank of Japan decision to keep its policy unchanged. Despite acknowledging increasing financial market nervousness regarding the European crisis, the BoJ maintained its asset purchase fund at ¥70T, reiterating Japan's economy is "shifting toward a pick-up phase." Later in the week, Moody's kept its Japan assessment unchanged, but warned that failure by parliament to make progress on fiscal reform would be construed as credit negative.

- China saw its 2012 GDP target cut to 8.2% by both the World Bank and the OECD. While the forecast remains above the official 7.5% estimate, signs of a slowing economy have taken a more pressing role in Beijing ahead of the regime change later this year. China Premier Wen reiterated State Council stance of "proactive" fiscal and "prudent" monetary policy, but also called for more focus on growth. Later in the week, the May HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI printed at a disappointing 48.7, down from 49.3 final reading in April and remaining in sub-50 contraction territory for the 7th consecutive month. Chinese monetary authorities remained on the sidelines in spite of the deteriorating fundamentals, as PBoC adviser Song suggested a cut in key 1-year lending/deposit rates is still unlikely.

TradeTheNews

May 25 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  )


Nice profitable day, even so activity was very low. Got a nice visual for a Double Bottom trade though:


[09:51] Long Setup: CHK .80 break if holds .75
[09:52] half out .89
[09:52] 1/4 more out .95
[09:53] cute double bottom
[09:56] stop .89 last piece of CHK
[09:57] want to get out into spike after 16 break
[09:58] stop to .94
[09:58] to .99
[09:59] out .05

Session Time: Fri May 25 00:00:00 2012
[09:13] {Threei}  hmmm... are we on strike today? :)
[09:14] {dptl} gm
[09:15] {Threei}  morning
[09:21] {ese} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:22] {dino} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:22] {ese} morning vad
[09:23] {dptl} market closed monday, right?
[09:23] {Threei}  yes
[09:23] {ese} wheres patience these days.........climbing Mt Everest or something
[09:23] {Threei}  and if EU falls apart over weekend, maybe Tuesday too, lol
[09:23] {dptl} lol
[09:23] {ese} dp
[09:24] {dptl} ese :)
[09:25] {Threei}  very meek opening
[09:26] {Threei}  slightly up earlier, slid down into red, now flat
[09:26] {Threei}  EUR touched 1.25
[09:27] {Threei}  (GR) Banks in France now said to be formulating contingency plans for a possible Greece exit
[09:27] {Threei}  whole thing is teetering on a brink
[09:30] {ese} am planning my next holday to Greece already.........when they exit their currency will devalue and it'll be the cheapest place on the planet to visit......perfect
[09:30] {thomcbell} how it should be 
[09:30] {ese} definitely
[09:30] {thomcbell} euro hurt them - it used to be a great cheap place to go
[09:30] {Threei}  we also need some airline to go bankrupt and provide us with $100 airfare
[09:32] {ese} indeed
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .35 break hl
[09:34] {Threei}  stop under .30
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .25 break
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW was too fast
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX, feel free to take scalp
[09:35] {Threei}  out .45
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:36] {Threei}  stop .56
[09:36] {Threei}  sheesh
[09:36] {Threei}  same setup again
[09:37] {Threei}  too early on exit, FCX
[09:37] {thomcbell} long setup chk 16.01 break if holding 15.91
[09:38] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  91 break hl
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[09:41] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:42] {Threei}  no go
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .80 break
[09:44] {dino} tkr drop
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[09:44] {Threei}  change to .70 break
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:45] {Threei}  ha;f out
[09:45] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:45] {Threei}  stop .69
[09:45] {dino} tkr sm l .50
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  CHK  .80 break
[09:47] {Threei}  ugh, late by 1 sec
[09:50] {dino} tkr stop -.32
[09:51] {Threei}  CHK
[09:51] {Threei}  same setup
[09:51] {Threei}  got it this time
[09:52] {Threei}  half out .89
[09:52] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:52] {Threei}  .95
[09:52] {dino} nice
[09:52] {Threei}  was easy to execute this time, no excuses
[09:52] {Threei}  5 cents risk
[09:53] {Threei}  cute double bottom
[09:54] {thomcbell} i like yours better Vad
[09:54] {Threei}  *(US) MAY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 79.3 V 77.8E
[09:54] {Threei}  lol
[09:55] {Threei}  out X in full
[09:55] {Threei}  almost forgot about last 1/4
[09:56] {Threei}  stop .89 last piece of CHK
[09:57] {Threei}  want to get out into spike after 16 break
[09:58] {Threei}  stop to .94
[09:58] {Threei}  to .99
[09:59] {Threei}  out
[09:59] {Threei}  .05
[10:06] {Threei}  visual http://goo.gl/8XCCN
[10:07] {dptl} bhp .90 short?
[10:07] {Threei}  nah
[10:10] {dino} pay sm l .00
[10:11] {cipher} aapl s .85
[10:12] {cipher} cov .80 +1.05
[10:12] {Threei}  wtg
[10:13] {cipher} ty
[10:13] {Threei}  lol
[10:13] {Threei}  "This is Ohio. I mean, if you don't have a brewski in your hand, you might as well be wearing a dress."
[10:22] {dino} tkr sm l .81
[10:22] {dino} dks sm l .00
[10:37] {Threei}  not much activity
[10:37] {Threei}  ip... down... no real drive
[10:42] {Threei}  wow
[10:42] {Threei}  that's drive
[10:42] {Threei}  no news
[10:46] {Threei}  why is CHK moving opposite to SPY
[10:47] {Threei}  why am I talking to myself
[10:48] {dino} lol
[10:50] {Threei}  even nemo is not here to provide some snide drunk remrk
[10:51] {dptl} aap .60short?
[10:51] {Threei}  too far from there...
[10:52] {Threei}  maybe aggressive .70
[10:52] {Threei}  and keep shares small
[10:52] {Threei}  pulp
[10:52] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[10:52] {dptl} k
[10:54] {ese} am outta here......vad my high school R&B band is playing in Beacon Hill park on Sunday from 12 to 2:30......maybe cya dn there
[10:55] {dino} cya ese
[10:55] {ese} cya dino
[10:55] {Threei}  got guests over that day ese
[10:56] {Threei}  too bad, I'd love to be there
[10:56] {ese} be a nice day for a walk in the park
[10:56] {Threei}  yeah
[10:56] {ese} cya
[10:56] {Threei}  have fun
[11:01] {dino} abmd drop
[11:10] {dino} pay sm l .00, stop .89
[11:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  LCC  .35 break
[11:11] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[11:15] {dptl} stopped aap
[11:21] {dptl} in lcc
[11:25] {dptl} stopped
[11:29] {Threei}  oushing it probably
[11:30] {Threei}  no activity
[11:31] {Threei}  oh... news
[11:32] {Threei}  killed it
[11:32] {Threei}  (IR) IAEA releases report on Iran; confirming earlier reports it detected Uranium enriched above the 25% level- Found 368 newly installed centrifuges and uranium enriched at approx 27% (above initially reported levels, but could have occurred for various reasons) - Sees Iran stockpile of high grade uranium reaching 145KG vs 110kg in prior report from February
[11:43] {dptl} long pay .01
[11:44] {dptl} stopped
[11:45] {dino}   abmd l .89
[11:45] {dino} pulp
[11:54] {Threei}  we are locked in a narrow range
[11:54] {Threei}  I assume cl,oser to eod we wll see some action
[12:00] {Threei}  GDX sharp drop
[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break
[12:01] {Threei}  If holds  45  for scalp, .40 day trade
[12:03] {Threei}  1:1 for scalp
[12:07] {Threei}  1:1 for day trade
[12:10] {Threei}  gotta be very picky
[12:11] {Threei}  guys, I gotta leave for an hour, hour and half
[12:12] {Threei}  don't chase Greece out of the union without me, OK?
[12:13] {dino} ok
[12:44] {dino} dtg spike
[12:57] {Beau} good late morning all
[13:17] {Beau} .
[13:19] {Threei}  back
[13:19] {Threei}  hi beau
[13:20] {Beau} had a good morning?
[13:20] {Threei}  yes, decent
[13:23] {Threei}  (GR) VPRC Poll: Syriza has 28.5% support, New Democracy has 26%, Pasok has 12.5% and Independent Greeks have 7%
[13:24] {Threei}  (EU) IIF's Dallara: EU should support Greece more; situation in Spain financial sector is manageable- Calls on the EU and the IMF to lend Greece another �10B - Estimates costs of a Greece exit from the EMU at �1.0T; notes the world is not prepared for such an occurence
[13:24] {Threei}  1T?
[13:24] {Threei}  souinds like bs to me
[13:27] {Threei}  beau, look at this gem we got earlier http://goo.gl/8XCCN
[13:28] {Beau} beautiful, 
[13:29] {Threei}  argh
[13:30] {Threei}  missed GDX bounce
[13:30] {Threei}  felt uneasy about .50 break withput one more pullback
[13:31] {dptl} got to go ...see ya tue
[13:31] {dptl} have a good weekend
[13:31] {Threei}  have fun dp
[13:31] {Beau} and you d
[13:31] {Threei}  weather is beautiful
[13:43] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .85 break
[13:43] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[13:47] {Threei}  nope
[14:19] {Threei}  wow
[14:22] {Threei}  no news
[14:22] {Threei}  I guess no one wants to stay long into long weekend
[14:27] {dino}  calling it a week, thx all
[14:28] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:10] {thomcbell} good weekend all
[15:10] {Threei}  take care tbell
[15:20] {Threei}  likely to get panic selloff
[15:46] {Threei}  O am so ready for the long weekend
[15:48] {Threei}  FB... jeez
[15:49] {Threei}  I am sure it goes lower
[15:50] {Threei}  Ok guys, I am calling it a week
[15:50] {Threei}  not bad one too
[15:50] {Threei}  see you on Tuesday
[15:51] {Beau} thanks for the info on laser.  enjoy the long weekend vad
[15:51] {Threei}  you too!