Saturday, June 30, 2012

Nemo's Fndings 7/1/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html 

Had a brainfart...no week that was...I immediately got to work on the level change overs since we changed weekly, monthly, quarterly and semesterly levels.

Without further adieu:



 
If you haven't noticed, I usually provide images that encompass the weekly levels because we don't often trade beyond that.  Now that I've said that, watch this be the week.  

Trading volumes will likely be light, so it will be relatively easy to push the price action around.  It also could be relatively easy to get jerked around by the algo's.  Buy support and sell resistance.  Then again, I'm not a fan of breakouts...I feel like the whack-a-mole.

With the big reset in so many levels this week, SPY now has 4 pivot points and the 50 day SMA  basically within 1 US dollar of each other.  As we stretch in either direction I would expect that range to be a magnet around which price action oscillates, barring exogenous (read:  European) news.  Note on the SPY chart the concentration of levels between 142.80 and 143.45.  That will be strong resistance, which I suppose is not really all that astute of an observation, considering reaching the bottom of that range puts us at new highs for the year and on this bull run from 3/2009, which would then make those pivot points extremely strong support.

Also, pay attention  should the price action return to that 130.80 level.  That was previously a Quarterly support level, it does have 3 fib retracement levels which will likely act as support, plus the rising 200 SMA.

If all else fails, try throwing darts while blindfolded...I've only hit my nephew a coupla' times.

Friday, June 29, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

The week commenced with investors eagerly anticipating two key events, the EU summit and a Supreme Court ruling on healthcare. Both had surprising outcomes. On Thursday the US top court upheld the constitutionality of the individual mandate, the backbone of President Obama's Affordable Care Act. The ruling provided a lot of political fodder for Washington, while overall market sentiment softened upon its release. With that out of the way, attention turned squarely back to Europe as the month and quarter end drew near. On Monday, Spain submitted its formal request for bank sector aid, and then European officials turned their attention to setting details of a growth pact to compliment the fiscal compact. Leading up to the opening of EU summit, expectations were being tamped down, particularly by German officials, who repeatedly vowed their staunch opposition to the notion of mutual liability, most notably to Eurobonds and deposit insurance. Late into the summit's first day President Van Rompuy confirmed that leaders had agreed on a growth agenda valued at €120B, or 1% of EU GDP. The surprise turn came later that night when EU leaders agreed to direct the firewall funds of the EFSF and ESM toward direct recapitalization of banks, reversing the German stance against it. Additionally and more importantly, countries not currently involved in bailout programs (Spain & Italy) will be allowed to access funds, and any ESM loans made to Spanish banks will not have creditor seniority. The potential for a break in the cycle of ever higher borrowing rates across Europe really goosed sentiment. European peripheral yields plummeted and the US 10-year yield moved below that of the German Bund for the first time since early February.
Investors aggressively piled into risk trades, and even some backtracking by German Chancellor Merkel had little effect after she reminded everyone that the ESM bank recapitalization plan would need unanimous approval and aid from the EFSF/ESM will always have certain conditions and could take up to one year. After trading below $80 for much of the week, crude futures rocketed up over 9% on Friday, and gold simultaneously gained over 3%, ending the week near $1600. The EUR/USD surged two big figures briefly approaching 1.27. Thanks to the huge rally on Friday stocks were up this week: the DJIA gained 1.9%, the S&P500 rose 2% and the Nasdaq added 1.5%, making it the best June for stocks since 1999.

The US Supreme court decision on Thursday held that the mandate at the center of President Obama's healthcare overhaul is constitutional as a tax (but not as a 'penalty' as it was framed by the Obama Administration). Chief Justice Roberts joined the left wing of the court to uphold the mandate, not based on the Commerce Clause but on the basis that Congress has the authority to set taxes. The court also ruled to limit Medicaid expansion but did not invalidate it. This decision was a real stunner as almost no one expected the law to be upheld in this manner. Almost every lower court rejected the tax argument and the key to almost every decision was the Commerce Clause. Republicans quickly reiterated calls to repeal the law and healthcare insurance industry groups said that major provisions (premium tax) in the healthcare reform law will have unintended consequences including cost increases. Some also argued that the law being upheld will inflame partisanship, making it harder to get a budget deal done heading into next year's fiscal cliff. Congress demonstrated some ability to compromise this week, however, passing the $120B highway transportation and student loan bill in both chambers on Friday.

Several drug names were in the news prior to the Obamacare ruling. Arena Pharma's lorcaserin weight loss pill was approved by the FDA for obese adults (i.e. body mass index of 30 or greater). The company will be required to conduct post marketing studies but because it was the first weight loss drug approved in more than a decade it brought buyers into the entire sector. Teva opened the week with surge after receiving a favorable court ruling in its copaxone patent infringement litigation with Momenta Pharma. The decision covers several patents, the last of which expires on September 1, 2015. Shares of Bristol-Myers and Pfizer moved lower after receiving a complete response letter from the FDA on the application for its eliquis stroke prevention drug, requesting additional information on data management and verification from the Aristotle trial.

Though it took a back seat to Europe and Obama care, the US housing market quietly had a good week. The data continues to point to a potential bottom as sentiment is beginning to brighten. Monday's May new homes sales registered a 25-month high while month's supply figures dropping to levels not seen since late 2005. The April S&P/CaseShiller house price survey showed the smallest y/y decline since Dec 2008. Also May pending home sales registered a 6-month high. After the data, the chief economist at the NAR commented that if housing starts do not rise in a meaningful way over the next two years due to the difficulty in getting construction loans, and barring an unexpected shift in the economy, the steady shedding of inventory could lead to shortages where home prices could get bid up close to 10 percent in 2013. Among the homebuilders, Lennar reported strong results that beat on the bottom line while coming up short of analyst revenue estimates. New home orders rose 40% though with average selling prices climbing and the cancellation rate dropping which has provided a boost for the sector.

Thursday's initial jobless claims were roughly in line with analyst expectations but remained elevated at 386K, further dampening the prospects for a recovery in the monthly payrolls data next week. The data followed a disappointing Q4 earnings report from Paychex, which cuts its FY13 revenue forecast. The payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing solutions provider is often viewed as a good barometer of the employment landscape.

Anheuser-Busch confirmed the purchase of the remaining stake in Groupo Modelo shares this week. The $20.1B deal represented roughly at 30% premium bringing the estimated total enterprise value north of $32B. The transaction is expected to close during Q1 2013 and financing has been fully committed.

Throughout the week cracks to the global economic growth story emerged. In their quarterly report the Brazilian central bank cut its 2012 growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.5%. German economic data was generally softer culminating in Friday's disappointing decline in May retail sales figures. Prior to that several large German companies provided commentary indicating they were not immune to Europe's woes. Chip maker Infineon guided Q3 revenues to be "slightly" lower on a sequential basis due to current global economic uncertainties. Siemens CFO said he expected some difficulty in meeting the lower end of its earnings guidance range due to slowdown in China and continued European uncertainty. Salzgitter also revealed it no longer expects to be able to achieve breakeven results for its steel unit this year which weighed on the entire group. By Friday, North American multinational corporations had joined the chorus. Nike shares plunged more than 10% after Q4 results were shy of consensus expectations on weaker margins, while Research in Motion fell nearly 20% as its Q1 Blackberry shipments plunged.

For much of the week the EUR/USD pair hovered in the lower end of its established range from mid-June, with the 1.2450 support seen as pivotal. The higher yields in the Spanish and Italian auctions coupled with weak Italian retail sales offset any benefits of a potential EU fiscal union deal at the upcoming summit. Growth remained a concern for Europe. The German engine showed signs of sputtering while peripherals faced renewed headwinds, exemplified by the Bank of Spain comment that its Q2 GDP contraction would be worse that Q1. Softer inflation data in Europe and weaker German employment figures boosted expectations for an ECB rate cut next week. Analysts are now calling for a 25-50bps cut in the main refi rate from its current historic low level of 1.00%. By Friday the EUR/USD pair exhibited it biggest one day gain in eight months following the EU announcement of its roadmap towards further integration. The EUR/USD moved off its Asian lows of 1.2433 and approached 1.27 by mid-morning before consolidating its gains throughout the European morning.

The USD/JPY currency pair maintained a firm tone despite the Japanese Lower House passing a national sales tax hike legislation and May inflation data disappointing expectations. While PM Noda had succeeded in pushing through his consumption tax increase proposal, the victory in the Diet may have political repercussions for his own party. Former DPJ leader Ozawa is expected to decide as early as Monday on whether he and some 50 of his supporters would bolt the DPJ in opposition to the legislation. Although the initial estimates suggest the number of departing lawmakers would be below the 54 threshold required for DPJ to maintain its lower house majority, the fracture may leave the ruling party in a far more vulnerable state. Meanwhile, Japan May core CPI data returned to deflationary territory, falling into negative territory for the first time in 4 months and potentially signaling yet another increase in the Bank of Japan asset purchase facility at its next meeting on July 12th. The concerns over Europe and cross currency flows caused the JPY to benefit from risk aversion throughout much of the week. But risk was back on during Friday's European session following Day one of the EU Leader Summit. The USD and JPY currencies were weaker against the European and commodity-related pairs.

Over in China, May industrial profits saw its third consecutive month of decline at -2.4% y/y, as attention shifts to the weekend release of the official manufacturing PMI data. Recall the HSBC flash PMI last week shocked to the downside, falling to a 7-month low 48.1. While the official PMI figures have stayed above the 50 threshold until now, analyst consensus appears to be on the side of a contraction this time - the first below-50 print since November of 2011.

June 29 2012

Crazy day and crazy market, finishing crazy week. About even, after some back and forth. Overall, the week is below the part vs. our usual performance. Please read this: http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/06/how-this-market-is-unique.html

Session Time: Fri Jun 29 00:00:00 2012
[07:17] {nemo} And you guys thought I was nuts for saying it was odd the Vampire Squid was trading strongly during the downdraft yesterday...
[08:35] {nemo} how do you trade this stuff...heheheheh
[09:00] {Threei}  (FR) France President Hollande: No extra EU Leader Summits planned before October- Does concede country's public debt is at a dangerous level
[09:01] {Threei}  (EU) IIF's Dallara: There are unaddressed issues regarding banking and fiscal union
[09:02] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Juncker: Spain and Italy should receive aid if conditions are met; Luxembourg has not agreed to implement a financial transactions tax (tobin)
[09:04] {ese} gm
[09:04] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:04] {Beau} morning all
[09:06] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:07] {ese} morning vad.......good day today already...you'll notice from the trading log Wed June 27 that i'm in RIO at .26...46.26 sold it pre mrkt 48.38 +2.12  1k of the little blighters
[09:07] {Threei}  nice hold
[09:07] {Threei}  congratulations
[09:09] {ese} tks....have been following this one for a few weeks now and like the way it trades.....was pretty damn sure it was close to support.......had to take a bit of heat but.......
[09:09] {Threei}  well... this today's market gap helped
[09:09] {ese} definitely
[09:13] {jackharry} gm everyone
[09:13] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:13] {Threei}  here is funny thing
[09:14] {Threei}  the more I read what they achieved yesterday, the less I see
[09:14] {Threei}  some paint over crumbling walls
[09:16] {ese} J
[09:17] {scottie} gm
[09:18] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:20] {dino} gm. more bi-polar market I see
[09:21] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:21] {Threei}  yup
[09:21] {Threei}  "we are not dissolving today" is enough to such a gap
[09:21] {ese} dino
[09:21] {dino} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  meanwhile if you read through, none of underlying problems is resolved
[09:22] {Threei}  there is still unsustainable debt , still no source of extinguishing it and still no eurobonds
[09:23] {Threei}  (which btw won't solve anything eiter)
[09:23] {Threei}  they are trying to jawbone very basic thing:
[09:23] {Threei}  when the debt esceeds sustainable levelas it can be resolved in one of two ways only
[09:24] {Threei}  defualt or inflate
[09:24] {Threei}  period
[09:24] {ese} vad dcc pls
[09:25] {dptl} gm
[09:25] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:26] {jimmy} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:26] {Threei}  I have strong urge to short this nonsense
[09:27] {Threei}  gotta be careful... such "common sense" trades often fail
[09:27] {dino} thinking same
[09:28] {Threei}  short? or careful? :)
[09:30] {dino} short
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  23 break hl
[09:31] {thomcbell} looking for short on lvs 
[09:31] {Threei}  valid
[09:32] {Threei}  .85 stop
[09:32] {dino} well we filled 6/27 gaps
[09:32] {dino} 6/22 too
[09:35] {Threei}  trail to .89
[09:35] {scottie} +.10 ty
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  yw
[09:37] {Beau} .09 good start thanks vad
[09:37] {ese} man.....rimm takes another hit.....
[09:38] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:38] {Threei}  RIMM is a train wreck
[09:38] {Threei}  it's done... put a firk in it
[09:38] {Threei}  fork too
[09:38] {ese} lol
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  VVUS  .70
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
[09:41] {Threei}  no go
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break hl
[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[09:42] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:45] {Threei}  *(US) JUN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 52.9 V 52.3E
[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[09:47] {Threei}  let's trail to .26
[09:47] {Threei}  want to keep risk as tight as possib;e
[09:47] {Threei}  there is still second day of summit
[09:48] {Threei}  and news headlines may come any moment
[09:49] {ese} hmmmmmmmm that .06 should make all the difference in the world.......don't you think
[09:49] {ese} sorry .6
[09:50] {Threei}  out
[09:51] {ese} good one chief
[09:51] {Threei}  not really, but I have no read on it here
[09:52] {Threei}  market hesitates
[09:54] {Threei}  *(US) JUN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 73.2 V 74.1E
[09:55] {Threei}  rinse FCX
[09:55] {ese} ok I have to ask this......what the "H" is the difference between Outperform and strong buy.......a la this People' United Financial Inc. Raymond James Cuts PBCT to Outperform from Strong Buy )
[09:56] {dino} lol
[09:56] {Threei}  Strong Buy = we have a lot of it, come in and buy as much as you can so we can dump it all
[09:56] {Threei}  Outperform = we have some, and wouldn't mind to unload it
[09:56] {ese} ok ....thats too funny
[09:56] {ese} gottcha
[09:57] {Threei}  Strong Buy Reiterated = please someone, take it off our hands... pleeeease
[09:57] {ese} lol
[09:57] {jackharry} you old cynic you!
[09:57] {ese} is he ever eh
[09:58] {Threei}  right on both counts... lol
[09:58] {Threei}  no news for this spike
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  VZ  .60 break
[10:01] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[10:02] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:04] {ese} daaaaaaa anf.....i hate that....just as your type the stuff in......15 to 20 cents have gone down the drain
[10:04] {ese} typing
[10:04] {Threei}  1:1 is close enough for first partial
[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .58
[10:10] {Threei}  market seriously has no idea what to do
[10:11] {thomcbell} lvs long setup 43.57 break if holding 43.47
[10:12] {ese} L ANF the uphook .08
[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .25 break
[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[10:13] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[10:13] {thomcbell} 1/4 out 
[10:17] {thomcbell} sold another 1/4 lvs 
[10:18] {Threei}  good one
[10:18] {nemo} 136.25 is quafrterly pivot point right here is the R3 on the daily
[10:19] {Threei}  trying for 1:2 on WMT
[10:19] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {Threei}  half out, stop to .24
[10:20] {thomcbell} out lvs 
[10:20] {thomcbell} stuck in mud here 
[10:20] {dino} out remaining geoy july 12.50 calls +1.20
[10:20] {scottie} wmt +.10 ty
[10:21] {Threei}  yw
[10:22] {dino} out yesterdays july pvh 77.50 calls 2.45, +.45
[10:23] {Threei}  nice
[10:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  FSLR  15 break
[10:24] {Threei}  If holds  .95 
[10:24] {dino} out yesterdays vrtx july 55 calls 2.30, +.30
[10:25] {ese} out anf.17 +.09.....took my 9 cents and am outta there....am getting the roll over feeling
[10:25] {Threei}  careful dino, we might consider you a swing trader
[10:26] {dino} just trying to tweak my capits/euphoria stategy
[10:28] {Threei}  half out FSLR
[10:28] {Threei}  mostly to cut down risk rather than book profit
[10:28] {Threei}  stop .98
[10:29] {thomcbell} lvs rats 
[10:32] {Threei}  FAZ, watching for entry on pullback to .90
[10:32] {ese} looks like its working dino
[10:33] {dino} don't jinx me, lol
[10:34] {ese} heres one for ya...CAMP.....beats....being eyeing this one all morning
[10:34] {ese} beat yesterday actually
[10:36] {dino} thx
[10:37] {Threei}  no pullback
[10:43] {ese} all together now....."gimme that old time religion....ahh hemm...gimme that old roll over feeling ...gimme that old roll over feelin.........gimme that old roll over feelin.........and your bank account won't struggle no more"..........that last lyric is mine....wha da ya think?
[10:43] {ese} ANF
[10:43] {nemo} ese...I'll put you out of your misery
[10:43] {nemo} actually, I'll put you out of my misery
[10:43] {ese} lol
[10:43] {Threei}  lol
[10:43] {ese}  please
[10:44] {Threei}  The rise in German debt yields to mirror the declines across the periphery this morning are also a firm reminder of the redistribution of liability in what can only heap more pressure on the shoulders of Angela Merkel. It would appear to be the Chancellor�s implicit hope that the EU can undergo a Great Leap Forward to the sole point of stability in a monetary union � full political, economic and financial integration � as a last gasp means to resolve the crisis; but it remains to be seen whether bailout cash � itself strictly for the purposes of mitigating the blow of reform � will be fully employed to that end. The repeated emphasis of this point would rather suggest that Germany has its doubts
[10:46] {ese} meaning?
[10:46] {ese} shes sick of free loaders?
[10:47] {Threei}  pretty much
[10:48] {dino} dia sm s .90, bstop .10
[10:50] {dino} camp does not move ese
[10:50] {ese} speaking of freeloaders....BCS Barclays bank being slapped around this morning
[10:50] {ese} ya......it's a hmmmmmmmmm
[10:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .50 break hl
[10:54] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:56] {ese} nope
[10:56] {Threei}  ese... to put it in a few words: Germany doesn't want to give more money unless it has control over how it's spent. Such control would involve members of EU ceding their sovereignity to a degree never seen before, up to budgets being written for them.
[10:57] {ese} thats interesting.......i can't see that happening
[10:57] {ese} even just from a nationalistic sense
[10:57] {jackharry} it would effectively be a united states of europe, with germany very much in control
[10:58] {Threei}  neither can I
[10:58] {Threei}  and if they oush too far, pushback will destroy whole construct
[10:58] {jackharry} ironically one of the reasons given for the EU to be set up originally was to limit german power
[10:58] {ese} egzactilly.........do we here in Canada want Angola telling us how to spend our money
[10:58] {Threei}  and if they skean it in through the backdoor (which is what they are trying to do), well
[10:59] {ese} better yet.........Fiji telling the US how to spend theres
[10:59] {Threei}  the outcome will be pushed by years or decades, and will be not less daramatic than USSR collapse
[10:59] {ese} oh sure FAS......now ya take off
[11:00] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Asmussen: EU summit was 'not a showdown' between Germany and other countries
[11:01] {jackharry} the whole euro project has been an attempt to push full political integration by the back door, because they knew they could never get it legitimately and democratically
[11:01] {ese} ahhhhhhh.......hmmmmmmmm there holding the big stick right now......
[11:01] {dino} camp sm l .20
[11:02] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Asmussen: monetary policy cannot help regain competitiveness- Troubled nations must implement reforms in order to receive assistance - Reiterates ESM can only fund banks when the banking supervision has been implemented - Not seeing risks of inflation from monetary policy
[11:02] {ese} thanks for watchin i'm in camp .16
[11:03] {Threei}  let's try for FAS db
[11:03] {Threei}  .40 break long
[11:03] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[11:04] {Threei}  no
[11:06] {Threei}  shrug
[11:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  LEN  .30 break
[11:12] {Threei}  big offer
[11:12] {Threei}  if chews through it, should explode
[11:13] {Threei}  there
[11:13] {Threei}  move now
06[11:13] * Threei kicks LEN in the rear
[11:15] {Threei}  1:1 half out
[11:15] {Threei}  scalpers are scalpers
[11:15] {Threei}  stop for the balance to .28
[11:16] {scottie} half out +.09
[11:17] {ese} gotta like that dino
[11:19] {cipher} camp +.18 thx for the heads up
[11:20] {ese} no probs
[11:20] {cipher} was camping out @.35 offer :-)
[11:20] {dino} gj
[11:25] {Threei}  guy, please go to http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/, scroll to the very bottom
[11:26] {Threei}  read a few lines on room slang
[11:26] {ese} dino..target?
[11:26] {Threei}  tell me if you can think of what to add there
[11:34] {dino} .50
[11:34] {Beau} rinse
[11:35] {Beau} for add
[11:36] {dino} maybe bi-polar markets
[11:37] {Threei}  ty
[11:37] {Threei}  will do
[11:39] {dino} s=short, l = long, bstop?
[11:39] {Threei}  right
[11:40] {scottie} Looks ok to me Vad
[11:41] {Threei}  ok... will make it easier for newer guys :)
[11:42] {Threei}  dolores, dcc please
[11:43] {cipher} camp l .21
[11:44] {_dolores} what is dcc'
[11:44] {_dolores} ?
[11:44] {Threei}  private message :)
[11:47] {ese} ok......i gotta go stop is in for camp.......have a great weekend....cyall monday
[11:48] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:49] {Threei}  added a few lines
[11:49] {Threei}  rinse was a particularly good one
[11:54] {Beau} i get a gold star?
[11:55] {Threei}  half... I had to write it up, so half is mine
[11:55] {Beau} presented by nemo
[11:55] {Threei}  well... with nemo, it's going to be a ninja star
[11:55] {Threei}  so be careful
[11:55] {Beau} lol
[11:55] {Threei}  :)
[11:57] {cipher} out 1/2 camp .33 +.12
[11:57] {Threei}  sheesh LEN
[11:57] {Threei}  what a psychotic behavior
[11:57] {Threei}  oh boy
[11:58] {Threei}  just up intil this moment I thought Merkel was a sane one
[11:58] {Threei}  and she had to go right ahead and kill this ray of hope in me:
[11:58] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Finance industry needs to pay for overcoming the crisis
[11:59] {Threei}  seriosuly Angela? finance indistry is at fault that states borrowed beyond their ability to repay?
[11:59] {nemo} yeah, battlefield shuriken's were nasty...alot bigger and heavier than their tv versions
[12:00] {Threei}  shuriken... long forgotten word...
[12:00] {cipher} out remainder camp .36 +1.5
[12:00] {Threei}  LEN, why did I hesitate with .10 entry... :(
[12:00] {cipher} +.15
[12:01] {Beau} gj cipher
[12:01] {cipher} squeezed the last drop out of it
[12:01] {cipher} ty
[12:05] {dino} gj camp cipher
[12:05] {cipher} thx dino
[12:07] {nemo} nke could go either way here, but it's lunch
[12:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .10 break
[12:10] {nemo} well, nke was good for .40
[12:12] {nemo} nke could go to 92.40
[12:13] {dino} sure, or it could db
[12:14] {nemo} if the bottom of that pennant drops, probabl goes to 88.70 area
[12:14] {dino} chart looks up
[12:16] {dino} things have died
[12:18] {Threei}  FAZ stop is obvious
[12:19] {Threei}  let's see if we can catch the beginning market slide
[12:31] {Threei}  come on LEN
[12:32] {Threei}  it was just not very decent of you to rinse our second half
[12:37] {Threei}  market really can't decide either way
[12:37] {Threei}  my strong feeling is, next headline will decide
[12:37] {Threei}  and we really have no idea what it's going to be
[12:39] {Threei}  this is unique market guys
[12:39] {Threei}  totally genuine news market
[12:39] {Threei}  where everyone speculates about next turn and no one has real inside scoop
[12:49] {Beau} vad to your magic on spy
[12:49] {Beau} do
[12:49] {Threei}  let me try
06[12:49] * Threei hits SPY over the head with 2x4
[12:49] {dino} out camp .50, +.30
06[12:50] * Threei throws churiken in SPY's forehead
[12:54] {thomcbell} turducken
[12:57] {Threei}  sigh
[12:57] {Threei}  (EU) Fitch: result of EU summit eases near term pressures- Our initial assessment of the summit of EU leaders held in Brussels this week is that it has exceeded expectations, although these were low, and marks a positive step that eases near-term pressure on eurozone sovereign ratings
[13:00] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/06/how-this-market-is-unique.html
[13:01] {Threei}  Egypt's president-elect Mohammed Morsi vows to free blink sheik jailed in US for plot to blow up landmarks
[13:05] {dino} inbeleivable
[13:06] {Threei}  is he goling to storm the US?
[13:07] {Threei} Short Setup: LEN  .75
[13:07] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[13:07] {Threei}  double top
[13:08] {scottie} in .74
[13:09] {Threei}  has 1:3 potential
[13:09] {_dolores} stop at .85?
[13:09] {Threei}  just above
[13:09] {_dolores} ok 
[13:10] {Threei}  13:04 high of the last bounce makes it's a resistance to place a stop above
[13:10] {Threei}  it a
[13:13] {Threei}  1:1, first partial out
[13:14] {Threei}  stop to .77
[13:14] {Threei}  scalpers are scalpers... be free
[13:14] {scottie} Half out +.09
[13:19] {nemo} SPY almost to weekly R1 at 135.75 if it breaks that, we go to QPP 136.37
[13:19] {nemo} the WR1 is at a volume resistance zone
[13:21] {dino} stop dia -.17
[13:21] {dino} calling it a day, thx all, good time, good week
[13:22] {dino} leaving behind gaps
[13:22] {Threei}  take care dino
[13:23] {_dolores} you too dino
[13:23] {nemo} amazing...just walking this up
[13:23] {Threei}  for the world of me... the more I read what they agreed for the less I see how this warrants such a move
[13:24] {nemo} just useless words on paper giving hope to the market
[13:24] {Threei}  ESFS/ESM can buy peripheral bonds
[13:24] {Threei}  that's all
[13:24] {nemo} creating a fed...not enough demand for US treasury bonds so the fed buys them
[13:24] {nemo} no demand for european bond, so they set up a mechanism to buy them
[13:24] {Threei}  their firepower is not nearly enough to solve all the debts, it's merely a short term relief
[13:24] {nemo} when this ponzi crashes...we're screwed
[13:25] {Threei}  and if thast is not enough, then main question:
[13:25] {Threei}  what's next when the debt is transfered?
[13:25] {Threei}  still debt, still same amount, and still no entity to repay it
[13:26] {nemo} politicians don't like reality
[13:27] {Threei}  and countries who debt is bought can't continue as they were, so they'll have to cut down on many things, so no growth, and no chance to increased revenue to start killing that debt
[13:27] {Threei}  who = whose
[13:27] {nemo} and even if economies picked up, oil would go through the roof
[13:28] {Threei}  there you go, from FT:
[13:29] {Threei}  the summit offers more questions than answers: �my fear is that, as so often in the past, the devil will prove to be in the detail. The more carefully one examines the text of the statement, the more questions are raised about how the proposed measures will actually work.�
[13:29] {Threei}  a few idiots on TV discuss how "Europe has at last grabbed the bull by the horns"
[13:30] {Threei}  I think I know how it ends for them and for the bull
[13:31] {Threei}  die already LEN
[13:31] {Threei}  downtrend is still intact
[13:32] {nemo} what statements I have read lead nowhere
[13:32] {Threei}  right
[13:40] {_dolores} out
[13:41] {Threei}  yeah, scalpers win
[13:46] {nemo} long signal again on iwm, but boy is it stretched
[13:53] {thomcbell} have a good one guys - im shutting it down - 
[13:53] {Threei}  take care tbell
[13:58] {nemo} now spy long setup, sheesh
[14:05] {scottie} Well that's it for me, have a good weekend all
[14:08] {Threei}  you too scottie
[14:14] {Threei}  great LEN
[14:14] {Threei}  lol
[14:18] {Threei}  (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Reiterates opposed to euro bonds without a common financial policy; EFSF and ESM bond purchases will not occur without conditionality
[14:19] {_dolores} ESM bond purchase is like a bailout disguised
[14:20] {_dolores} you cannot place your debt at a reasonable rate so europe institutions have to buy it
[14:23] {Threei}  right
[14:24] {Threei}  but what happens next, when money is spent and ESM is on hook for bonds it's holding
[14:25] {_dolores} guess thye try to prevent that with the conditions that no one respects !
[14:25] {Threei}  exactly
[14:26] {_dolores} market wall here?
[14:26] {Threei}  they had cpnditions in the first place, and they were violated by most EU members
[14:26] {_dolores} yes
[14:26] {Threei}  nope, market breaks out
[14:27] {Threei}  now bailing out those who didn't keep the promise in the first place opnly creates moral hazard and guarantees repetition - just look at US banks that were bailed out for an illustration
[14:28] {Threei}  BAC, C... zombies
[14:28] {Threei}  not even speaking of FRE and FAN
[14:30] {Threei}  FNM, sorry
[14:31] {_dolores} yes
[14:53] {Threei}  so... do we get any fear during last hour?
[14:53] {Threei}  or hope springs eternal
[14:57] {nemo}  in one day wti erased the whole month's loss
[14:58] {nemo} up 9.5%
[14:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break
[14:58] {nemo} I was thinking long
[14:59] {Threei}  if SPY breaks, TZA shouldn't trigger
[14:59] {nemo} both IWM and SPY are holding trend lines
[15:01] {_dolores} in
[15:02] {Threei}  did it trigger?
[15:02] {_dolores} think so
[15:02] {Threei}  I must've missed
[15:02] {_dolores} if not let me know
[15:03] {Threei}  didn't see it going over .10
[15:03] {Threei}  but it should now
[15:03] {_dolores} ok
[15:04] {Threei}  still hasn't...
[15:04] {_dolores} ok
[15:05] {Threei}  well... now please?
[15:08] {Beau} vad what is meaning of large buy and sells.  
[15:08] {Beau} Any?
[15:09] {Threei}  can't tell without context
[15:10] {Threei}  they mean something in some cases, don't in others
[15:10] {nemo} it's like incest, all relative
[15:10] {Threei}  ok TZA
[15:10] {_dolores} so  now TZA triggered?
[15:10] {Threei}  let's do something good finally
[15:10] {Threei}  yes
[15:10] {Threei}  break of .10
[15:11] {_dolores} So you buy at 10 or at 11'
[15:11] {_dolores} ?
[15:11] {Threei}  .11
[15:12] {_dolores} ok thxs
[15:12] {_dolores} stop 10 cents?
[15:14] {Threei}  just under 18
[15:15] {_dolores} ok
[15:15] {Threei}  alternatively, under current low
[15:15] {Threei}  but that's a little bit unordinary
[15:15] {nemo} Gaws I have alot of work to do weekly monthly quarterly and semesterly levels all change this weekend
[15:15] {Threei}  lol
[15:17] {Threei}  a few cents more TZA please
[15:17] {Beau} you see 1:2
[15:17] {Threei}  I do, but then again...
[15:17] {Threei}  I see dead people too
[15:19] {Threei}  OK, let's partial here
[15:20] {Threei}  scalpers just get out
[15:20] {nemo} spy at trend but iwm dropped through, and spy doesn't look long at the moment
[15:22] {Threei}  sold half dolores?
[15:23] {_dolores} yes
[15:23] {_dolores} practising with small amounts
[15:23] {_dolores} to get the dea
[15:23] {Threei}  stop to .09 of course
[15:23] {_dolores} idea
[15:23] {Threei}  that's the way
[15:29] {nemo} long setups
[15:29] {nemo} so much for that
[15:30] {Threei}  1:2
[15:30] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[15:30] {Threei}  or sell the balance
[15:30] {Threei}  personal choice
[15:31] {Beau} took .12.  thanks vad
[15:31] {Threei}  :)
[15:36] {nemo} o.k. 1 shakeout early on the long
[15:40] {_dolores} ok guys see you next week
[15:40] {Threei}  have a good weekend dolores
[15:40] {_dolores} take care and have agreat weekend
[15:40] {_dolores}  thxs Vad 
[15:40] {nemo} GERMAN PARLIAMENT'S LOWER HOUSE APPROVES ESM EURO-BAILOUT FUND.
[15:41] {Threei}  not abiggie, was completely expected
[15:44] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:44] {Threei}  how do SPY and TZA go up together
[15:45] {Threei}  I will know market completely lost it when I see FAZ and FAS both going up
[15:46] {nemo} I have noticed that later in the afternoons spy and iwm disengage
[15:46] {Threei}  I see it sometimes within couple ticks
[15:46] {Threei}  which iks nromal
[15:47] {Threei}  but this move was way beyond that
[15:47] {nemo} it's been more prevalent the last few months
[15:47] {nemo} Remember, I look at them all day long
[15:47] {Threei}  yeah
[15:47] {nemo} boring, aren't I?
[15:47] {Threei}  you have double advantage
[15:47] {nemo} true
[15:48] {nemo} I'm handsome
[15:48] {Threei}  this, and you are three hours ahead of me
[15:48] {Threei}  umm, well... that'd rwuire second opinion
[15:48] {nemo} no, that's your advantage, you have the afternoon to enjoy
[15:48] {Beau} and modest and humble
[15:48] {Threei}  but you get news and market movements 3 hours earlier
[15:48] {Threei}  you and dino
[15:48] {Threei}  and scottie
[15:48] {nemo} 3 hours later
[15:49] {Threei}  while I and Beau have to wait
[15:49] {nemo} it's 4 here, it's 1 there
[15:49] {Threei}  lol
[15:49] {Threei}  so you knew at your 1 what we know at our 1, which is three hours later for you
[15:49] {Threei}  see?
[15:50] {Threei}  dp is at disadvantage too, but he starts drinking earlier
[15:51] {Threei}  ok guys, done for the week
[15:52] {Threei}  not an easy one
[15:52] {dptl} gn all
[15:52] {Beau} enjoy the weekend vad.  gonna use your camera?
[15:52] {Threei}  win one day, lose another, as opposite to out more typical 4 win, 1 lose
[15:52] {Threei}  very much so beau
[15:53] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you on Monday
[15:53] {nemo} take care Beau
[15:54] {Beau} and you handsome.  good weekend.



Thursday, June 28, 2012

June 28 2012

Whipsawing market resulted in a somewhat frustrating day - cluster of wins, cluster of stops, ended a tad on a negative side. How about this as a reason for a rally:


(EU) German Chancellor Merkel cancels EU summit press conference scheduled for tonight; Talks on growth measures in progress
- Follow up: Market reactions appear focused on the prospect of this cancellation meaning that there is some progress being made at the EU summit and the potential for an announcement that may ultimately benefit Spain and Italy in the short term.

Shrug.




Session Time: Thu Jun 28 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {Threei}  (EU) Reminder: EU Leader Summit to begin at this time- There will be a press conference with EU President Van Rompuy and Commissioner Barroso but no set time; likely well after the European close
[09:06] {jackharry} good morning everyone
[09:06] {_abakas} gm all
[09:06] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:06] {Threei}  abakas :)
[09:07] {_abakas} do we have any news today?
[09:07] {Threei}  not really, mostly expectations of EU summit
[09:07] {Threei}  and they are not very rosy
[09:08] {Threei}  also JPM loss estimate widened
[09:08] {Threei}  from 2 to 9B
[09:10] {thomcbell} is that a typo Vad?
[09:10] {nemo} from vad, nah, never, gag
[09:10] {nemo} Well let's see if it's Obama-boy day?
[09:10] {nemo} From what movie am I paraphrasing?
[09:12] {Threei}  where tbell?
[09:14] {Threei}  come on, suspense is killing me... I already re-read what I tyoed twice and found none :)
[09:17] {dptl} gm
[09:17] {scottie} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:17] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {nemo} personal opinions
[09:17] {Threei}  lol
[09:17] {Beau} morning you all
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {ese} morning
[09:20] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:20] {thomcbell} from 2 to 9b
[09:21] {thomcbell} sorry was going thru some charts
[09:21] {Threei}  no
[09:21] {Threei}  JPMorgan Chase and Co There is speculation that the trading loss related to CIO unit could hit $9B - NYT- Cites people who have been briefed on the situation.
[09:21] {thomcbell} thats banans
[09:21] {thomcbell} bananas
[09:22] {Threei}  I'd strongly suggest all the banks whose traders cause such losses to send them to us for some education and rehabilitation
[09:22] {Threei}  it's always the same story with them
[09:23] {Threei}  ambitious trader takes on too big position, sees loss, doesn't accept it, adds to losing position
[09:23] {Threei}  and continues averaging down until it grows beyond his ability to manage it and hide it
[09:25] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2009/06/averaging-down-yea-or-nay.html
[09:29] {Threei}  short direction is almost a given
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:31] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:32] {jimmy} gm
[09:32] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:33] {Threei}  TZA, keeping an eye for an entry on pullback again
[09:34] {nemo} tna .46
[09:34] {nemo} sto udner .40
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[09:35] {nemo} half .63
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .15 break
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  ..5
[09:36] {Threei}  .05
[09:36] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:36] {nemo} stop under .55
[09:37] {nemo} 1/4 .80
[09:37] {Threei}  TZA invalidated
[09:39] {nemo} stop under .75
[09:39] {dptl} in faz
[09:39] {cc_8} in faz
[09:40] {Threei}  stopped
[09:40] {dptl} ye
[09:40] {cc_8} yep
[09:40] {nemo} stop under .00
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .55 break
[09:43] {dino} dumb question. i've lost my favorites icon, where did it go, how do i get it back
[09:44] {nemo} what is it to?
[09:44] {Threei}  change to .60 break
[09:44] {dino} on top of screen "favorites"
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:44] {dino} it is no longer there
[09:44] {nemo} desktop, on a specific application?
[09:45] {cc_8} usually you right click and "add favoriates bar"
[09:45] {dino} click what?
[09:45] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:45] {Threei}  not finding right plays yet
[09:45] {nemo} stop under .20
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:47] {Threei}  not a scalp
[09:47] {Threei}  stop above .80
[09:48] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:48] {nemo} stop under .35
[09:48] {nemo} out .33
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1, first partial out
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .72
[09:49] {nemo} damn, should have held my original previous stop again
[09:51] {Threei}  good play anyway nemo
[09:51] {Threei}  wentry is near perfect
[09:51] {Threei}  =w
[09:51] {nemo} ty, I saw big bid and thought it was stretched, so...eh
[09:52] {Threei}  (EU) EU officials: Luxembourg PM Junker to stay on as head of Eurogroup- Klaus Regling to become head of permanent bailout fund (ESM)
[09:52] {Threei}  "permanent bailout fund"
[09:52] {Threei}  heh
[09:53] {Threei}  come on SLW, 1 cent to 1:2, and you reverse?
[09:53] {Threei}  drop back down, will ya
[09:53] {Threei}  OK
[09:54] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:54] {Beau} scalped SLW for .10 thanks Vad
[09:54] {Threei}  :)
[09:54] {Threei}  VRTX, diaper stock
[09:55] {nemo} spy forming nice range
[09:55] {nemo} upro break on spy above .40
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: ANF  .50 break
[09:55] {Threei}  hl
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:56] {nemo} coal stocks are so beaten up think they go farther than anybody can fathom
[09:56] {Threei}  well, not without pullback
[09:56] {nemo} yeah, but your rocket catching
[09:56] {nemo} you are
[09:57] {Threei}  not really, just waiting for a reversal setup
[09:57] {nemo} at R#
[09:58] {Threei}  let's see if gives us double top now
[09:58] {nemo} r3
[09:58] {Threei}  no... reversed with no clear setup
[09:59] {nemo} broke above R3 on the daily and then dropped
[09:59] {Threei}  too bad
[09:59] {nemo} whacked those stops
[09:59] {cc_8} anf worked
[09:59] {cc_8} still short SLW and ANF
[10:00] {Threei}  where did you get ANF?
[10:00] {cc_8} 31.59
[10:00] {Threei}  hmmm... not my kind of entry :)
[10:00] {cc_8} thats my fault actually, got in early
[10:01] {nemo} mmmhhh tna break of .20 might be worth it if spy plays
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  ARNA  .10 break
[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  11
[10:03] {dptl} in
[10:03] {thomcbell} long setup nws 22.40 break if holding 22.32
[10:04] {Threei}  scratch ARNA into this bounce
[10:05] {Threei}  this health care decision may screw up these stocks
[10:05] {dptl} out -.06
[10:05] {thomcbell} nwa invalidated
[10:06] {thomcbell} nws
[10:06] {Threei}  decision is rendered
[10:07] {Threei}  uncostitutional
[10:08] {Threei}  or not
[10:09] {Threei}  they can't decode the decision, lolk
[10:09] {ese} news report says constitutional
[10:09] {Threei}  there is a distinction:
[10:09] {ese} mandate upheld by supreme court according to the release
[10:09] {Threei}  constitutional as a tax
[10:10] {nemo} yahoo...now we get taxed out the ass
[10:10] {Threei}  not as a punishing levy
[10:10] {ese} ya I don't get that part
[10:10] {Threei}  parts are upheld, parts are invalidated
[10:11] {Threei}  can do it as a tax, can't do it as a penalty
[10:12] {ese} hmmmmmmmm
[10:12] {Threei}  administration however insisted that it was not a tax
[10:12] {Threei}  which not turns it is
[10:12] {Threei}  not = now
[10:14] {Threei}  *(US) SUPREME COURT RENDERS DECISION ON HEALTHCARE REFORM LEGISLATION (OBAMACARE); MANDATE UPHELD BY THE SUPREME COURT- Insurance mandate is constitutional as a 'tax' but not as a penalty
[10:17] {ese} L cell .11
[10:18] {ese} full lot
[10:18] {ese} out 1/2 .25 +.144
[10:18] {ese} .14
[10:19] {ese} stop to .15
[10:19] {dptl} cell?
[10:20] {ese} y
[10:20] {dptl} ? out .25?
[10:21] {ese} stop is tight but we'll see
[10:21] {thomcbell} dgx thin but looks good as a long
[10:21] {ese} dtoppet
[10:21] {ese} .15 +.04 balance
[10:22] {thomcbell} no setup yet
[10:24] {ese} hmmmmmmm......new word for getting out........"dtoppet" pronounced ..deeeeetop.....id
[10:26] {thomcbell} i have a tiny long on dgx
[10:26] {thomcbell} 0.29 stop
[10:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .40 break
[10:26] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:26] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:27] {ese} ok....enough for today......i know i'm tired but this is ridiculous......that last stock that i was in and out of was not CELL it was OFG......ok thats a new one
[10:27] {Threei}  lol
[10:28] {dptl} lol and i thought i am going nuts
[10:28] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .25 break
[10:28] {thomcbell} target is 59
[10:28] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:29] {Threei}  half out .33
[10:29] {ese} holy "C" thats bizzarre....was looking at the settlement and and went WTF.......
[10:29] {nemo} states can opt out, this is a riot
[10:29] {nemo} Yeah, you can do it Congress, the states don't have to follow
[10:30] {Threei}  wow
[10:31] {Threei}  "What Congress is not free to do is to penalize States that choose not to participate in that new program by taking away their existing Medicaid funding."
[10:31] {ese} my apologies to the board........bought and sold the right stock but reported the wrong symbol.........sheesh....been a long tiring year but man......weird mind trick
[10:31] {Threei}  this starts looking like they upheld it formally while making it dead in practice, and making Obama look very bad by calling it a tax
[10:31] {nemo} frickin' musician
[10:32] {Threei}  lol
[10:32] {ese} this one goes down in the annals for sure
[10:32] {thomcbell} makding sales dgx
[10:33] {Threei}  ese, look dcc pls
[10:34] {nemo} ese, been using your head as a drum stick?
[10:38] {thomcbell} dgx out
[10:38] {nemo} we're at support for spy and IWM
[10:39] {ese} no........as the drum head and beating on it
[10:40] {nemo} I'll do that for ya...
[10:40] {ese} perfect......could use that right now
[10:42] {nemo} bounce time
[10:43] {nemo} iwm bounced at 200 SMA and SPY at S3 on the daily
[10:43] {nemo} short into it I think
[10:44] {nemo} no volume
[10:49] {dptl} vrtx .50 long?
[10:49] {dptl} 55
[10:49] {dptl} sorry
[10:49] {Threei}  can't tell
[10:56] {thomcbell} i sent you a weekly of fcx Vad to your email
[10:56] {thomcbell} feel free to share
[11:00] {nemo} faz might be worth it here, small stop
[11:04] {ese} nemo.....do you trade any vwap signals.........like a reversion to the mean type of thing......stock gets to far below or above and moves back to it type of thing
[11:06] {nemo} I watch vwap and if there are other confluences at vwap, that increases the probability
[11:06] {ese} of going long or short?
[11:06] {ese} or both
[11:06] {nemo} yep
[11:07] {ese} just wondering....RIO is right at it right now.....above at this point
[11:08] {nemo} yeah, but it's not showing much range
[11:08] {ese} no
[11:09] {ese} was just wondering because mrkt makers and in house traders made a wac of dough if they beat the vwap.......just kinda wondering how much influence it has
[11:09] {nemo} and it's oscillating around 44.60 or so.  I think you could get shaken in that area.  I'd want to wait until it got to a more extreme part of the range and see what sets up there.  The middle is no place to be
[11:09] {ese} make
[11:09] {nemo} well unless it's a menage and you're the only guy
[11:09] {ese} y definitely
[11:10] {ese} lol
[11:10] {ese} ahhhhhhh  hemmmmmmm!!!!1
[11:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[11:10] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:10] {dptl} in
[11:17] {thomcbell} now dgx just flat out firm
[11:22] {Beau} going to partial, Vad?
[11:22] {Threei}  nah
[11:22] {Threei}  scalp
[11:23] {Threei}  market is in coma waiting for EU summit
[11:23] {Threei}  1:1
[11:23] {dptl} out ty
[11:23] {Threei}  yw
[11:23] {scottie} out +.09 ty
[11:24] {Beau} .10  thanks
[11:31] {Threei} Short Setup: AET  39 break hl
[11:33] {Threei}  According to an official with US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's office, House health care repeal vote is July 11
[11:33] {dptl} in
[11:33] {Threei}  political posturing
[11:33] {Threei}  this one is not a scalp
[11:34] {Threei}  1:1
[11:34] {dptl} out ty
[11:35] {jackharry} cc_8 - query re Laser, on this IWM trade i sold half at 76.61, and moved stop on balance to 76.51, however the stop triggered about 30 seconds later 11.26, filled me at 76.59. Why would the stop have triggered?
[11:35] {Threei}  with two wins back to back, looking better
[11:36] {dino} taho sm l .50
[11:37] {dino} stop is .19
[11:37] {nemo} depends on your stop order parameters...execute on bid offer or actual T&S transaction
[11:38] {Threei}  (EU) EU leader draft summit document to call for specific 'road map' and time frame for economic and monetary union; plan to be formed by the end of the year, with an interim update in Oct
[11:38] {Threei}  - Asks the 4 top European officials to formulate the plan (including EU Pres Van Rompuy).
[11:38] {Threei}  - Document indicates a banking union should encompass all EU countries with allowance for slight difference between nations in the EU and those in the EMU.
[11:39] {Threei}  US) President Obama to speak on the healthcare ruling at 12:15ET
[11:39] {Threei}  victory lap
[11:39] {jackharry} Uk won't accept banking union, even with "slight differences"
[11:40] {Threei}  thank goodness
[11:40] {Threei}  island of common sense in the sea of insanity
[11:40] {jackharry} nemo, pretty sure its on actual transaction, not just bid offer
[11:41] {Threei}  here is the most amazing thing to me
[11:42] {jackharry} well, current govt wont accept it, that might change if the Labour party got back in in 2015
[11:42] {Threei}  anyone who lived through swampy years and collapse of Soviet Union can easily recognize EU situation for what it is
[11:42] {Threei}  and see its inevitab;e death
[11:43] {Threei}  it's not like it's an ancient history, this happened quite recently
[11:43] {Threei}  by historical standards
[11:43] {Threei}  How come they don't see that it's almost exact repetition of what already proven to be non-viable?
[11:44] {Threei}  to be pedantic, there are two differences
[11:45] {Threei}  1. USSR didn't borrow to live better (it couldn't because richer countries were ideological enemies), so it lived in poverty
[11:46] {Threei}  2. USS held its parts (countries) by armed force
[11:46] {Threei}  both differences made that experiement lasting longer than EU
[11:46] {Threei}  borrowing into unsustainability and hesitance (I hope) to use force will finish it off faster
[11:50] {jackharry}  they won't give up easily, every time the "European project" has gotten into trouble , from the ERM debacle of the early 90s to the current farce, their answer has been more "Europe", more integration, and stuff democracy and the will of the people
[11:51] {jackharry} survival of their european dream is all that matters
[11:55] {dino} out taho .05, +.55
[11:55] {Threei}  wtg
[11:55] {dino} ty
[12:00] {thomcbell} long setup cog 39.51 break if holding 39.40
[12:01] {nemo} we might be forming handle of C&H on SPY and IWM this recent bottom on spy 38.2 retrace from recent high
[12:01] {thomcbell} target 1:3
[12:03] {nemo} 40.30 probably
[12:03] {thomcbell} im shooting for 39.95 on a 1500 share lot
[12:03] {nemo} partial and see if you can Vwap
[12:10] {nemo} mos might be setting up to be a short here, break of .15
[12:10] {nemo} stop above .20
[12:11] {Will49} Just checking connections to room
[12:11] {nemo} age year born or...
[12:11] {Threei}  hi Will
[12:11] {Threei}  it works
[12:11] {Will49} Hi Vad
[12:12] {nemo} 1:1
[12:12] {Threei}  good one nemo
[12:12] {Threei}  you are nailing them today
[12:12] {Will49} Yes...and "wish" 49 was birth date
[12:13] {Threei} Short Setup: ETP  .40 break hl
[12:14] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:14] {dptl} in
[12:14] {Threei}  victory lap on TV
[12:15] {nemo} 1:2
[12:15] {nemo} oh goody, size on the offer
[12:16] {nemo} nobody hit the offer
[12:16] {nemo} good for me
[12:16] {nemo} stop to .00
[12:17] {Threei}  .34 is last line of defense for ETP
[12:17] {dino} wow sold taho about a dollar too soon
[12:17] {nemo} we'll have to start calling you ese
[12:17] {Threei}  if that support is broken, should plunge to about .25 quickly
[12:19] {thomcbell} tightening stop to 39.47 on cog
[12:21] {nemo} stop to .90
[12:24] {nemo} out
[12:24] {nemo} I may regret that
[12:28] {Threei}  things stalled
[12:28] {nemo} dino kick the plug out again?
[12:29] {thomcbell} cog 1:1
[12:30] {Threei}  someone tripped over market cord and unplugged it
[12:31] {nemo} friend of mine just shorted COG
[12:32] {dino} opps, sorry about that
[12:32] {Threei}  let's trail ETP to .46
[12:32] {thomcbell} starting to feel that way - no sorry necessary
[12:33] {Threei}  took long enough to start limiting risk
[12:33] {thomcbell} looks like a good entry short on my stop 39.47
[12:34] {dino} 07 al red
[12:34] {Threei}  finally... took its sweet time... 1:1
[12:34] {nemo} yep, I regret my MOS stop
[12:34] {Threei}  dp, wake up
[12:34] {dptl} out .28
[12:34] {dptl} ty
[12:34] {Threei}  start covering
[12:34] {Threei}  :)
[12:35] {Threei}  danger of such slow trades is that you fall asleep and miss exit
[12:35] {Threei}  also, you break the keyboard with your chin
[12:35] {nemo} bounce time
[12:36] {nemo} niblle .81 tna stop .74
[12:36] {nemo} nibble
[12:36] {Beau} bought late .13  thaks Vad
[12:36] {Beau} or thanks
[12:37] {Threei}  yw
[12:37] {Threei}  either will do
[12:37] {Threei}  being a bit of diksleksiq myself, I am very accepting of (mis)typing
[12:40] {Beau} sad thing is i can read diksleksiq.
[12:40] {Beau} nemo taught me
[12:40] {Threei}  even sadder thing is, we all understand nemo
[12:42] {nemo} Vad, kick tna
[12:42] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:42] {Threei}  you think it's upward bound?
[12:43] {nemo} for a little bit
[12:43] {Threei}  toughie, honestly
[12:43] {nemo} I'm in .81 stop .74
[12:44] {nemo} I'm getting bored with it though
[12:44] {nemo} shoulda' taken .89
[12:46] {nemo} I'm out
[12:47] {nemo} U r classic Josh "@ReformedBroker: Murdoch tells @CNBC he may change Wall Street Journal name to "WSJ", NY Post will become "WTF""
[12:49] {nemo} oh damn, it
[12:49] {nemo} tna shaping up again and so is spy
[12:50] {nemo} shit
[12:52] {dino} bto vrtx july 55 calls at 2
[12:54] {nemo} that's a higher low, we might ru for awhile now
[12:56] {nemo} Vampire Squid trading relatively strongly
[13:05] {ese} gotta go c ya ta ma ra
[13:07] {nemo} thanks for the warning
[13:08] {dino} pvh sm l .46
[13:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  GSK  45 break
[13:13] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[13:13] {Threei}  just a quick scalp, nothing big
[13:13] {dptl} in
[13:14] {nemo} I love dp...leads with his head
[13:14] {dptl} :)
[13:18] {dino} pvh stop -.21
[13:18] {nemo} esrx might be a short
[13:19] {dptl} cog .70 long?
[13:19] {nemo} then again
[13:20] {nemo} that may have been the shake on esrx if it drops .60 here
[13:21] {Threei}  not sure about COG
[13:25] {nemo} esrx might be ready
[13:28] {dino} last try pvh sm l .25
[13:30] {thomcbell} cog is in no man's land
[13:31] {dptl} out gsk
[13:31] {nemo} shorting esrx .75 small
[13:32] {nemo} 1/2 .64
[13:32] {nemo} ok..stop to .85
[13:34] {Threei}  Obama on high court health care ruling: 'Whatever the politics, today's decision was a victory for people all over this country'
[13:34] {nemo} taking stop down to .72ish
[13:34] {Threei}  I guess that's why 57% say it should be overturned
[13:36] {nemo} argualby should add if this doji drops
[13:40] {Threei}  SPY starts looking like brwakdown coming
[13:40] {Threei}  breakdown too
[13:41] {Threei}  probably with little bounce first
[13:41] {Threei}  so, this FAZ .40 break... while valid setup, but let's try to catch it on pullback to .30
[13:46] {nemo} stop to .40
[13:49] {Threei}  pullback was not very clear for an entrey point
[13:49] {Threei}  not sure if I wsant a break
[13:50] {Threei}  I sure want a better typing but that ship has sailed
[13:51] {Threei}  let's try it a bit differently
[13:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  SPXU  .63
[13:51] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[13:58] {dptl} sigh......
[13:59] {Threei}  yeah
[13:59] {Beau} sh---
[13:59] {nemo} stop w/close above .30
[14:00] {nemo} out
[14:00] {nemo} GS going to highs
[14:01] {Threei}  that was actually news headline that killed short
[14:01] {Threei}  (EU) EMU official - Confirms speculation that EU leaders to discuss the possibility of purchasing of Spanish and Italian bonds.
[14:07] {thomcbell} hmsy seems to be the one most spirited after the supreme court decision
[14:07] {thomcbell} Jefferies said HMS Holdings (HMSY)  is a big winner of the Supreme Court ruling as more than twenty states have not yet selected a Medicaid RAC vendor
[14:11] {Threei} Short Setup: WBMD  .17
[14:11] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[14:14] {dino} vrtx sm l .71
[14:15] {_abakas} vrtx long?
[14:15] {_abakas} what is sm?
[14:16] {Threei}  small shares
[14:16] {_abakas} ty
[14:16] {Threei}  frikin FAZ did what I wanted to catch - pullback to .30 and rally from there, and I missed it
[14:17] {Threei}  and SPXU rinsed
[14:17] {Threei}  don't like this afternoon at all
[14:18] {Threei}  my fault actually, had the right idea and right plan, and was too impatient
[14:23] {dino} vrttx stop -.30
[14:23] {dino} no bounces today
[14:23] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO's Bill Gross July Investment outlook: Whats in a name
[14:23] {Threei}  - Not only banks and insurance companies but sovereign nations as well cannot all be counted on to guarantee a return of principal, let alone a return on investment.
[14:23] {Threei}  - An authentic debt crisis which the world is now experiencing can only be ultimately cured in two ways: 1) default on it, or 2) print more money in order to inflate it away.
[14:23] {Threei}  - There are very few clean dirty shirts in this world. Timing in investment markets is critical and at the moment the U.S. is considered to be the cleanest.
[14:26] {Threei}  so, more and more pundits say this court decision make Romney next president
[14:46] {dino} vrtx sm l .10
[14:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
[14:58] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[15:02] {Threei}  target 1:2
[15:04] {Threei}  if this one doesn't work I eat my keyboard AND cut my wrist with a banana
[15:08] {Threei}  1:1
[15:08] {Threei}  my keyboard is safe
[15:10] {Threei}  playing by the book, half out and stop to .39
[15:13] {Threei}  scalpers win
[15:24] {Threei}  rinsed second hald... at 1:2 now
[15:24] {_abakas} vrtx??
[15:26] {Threei}  ?
[15:26] {Threei}  what about it?
[15:29] {dino} vrtx is broken
[15:30] {dino} out pvh +.40 @ .65
[15:30] {Threei}  wtg
[15:31] {Beau} nice dino
[15:32] {dptl} vrx .30?
[15:33] {Threei}  friking IWM
[15:33] {Threei}  today is like a cemetery of missed opportinities
[15:33] {dino} why the spike?
[15:34] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel cancels EU summit press conference scheduled for tonight; Talks on growth measures in progress
[15:39] {nemo} wow...look at this...extremely bullish...couldn't sell it down....they've agreed on Euro bonds
[15:39] {dino} crazy azz market
[15:40] {nemo} GS was always at the top of relative strength today even when it was selling down...the vampire squid knows
[15:40] {Threei}  I don't believe they agreed to that
[15:40] {dino} are you calling gs the vampire squid?
[15:40] {Threei}  this is hope and denial
[15:40] {nemo} they'll call it something else
[15:40] {nemo} vad the Ffffn politicians
[15:41] {nemo} just like the healthcare taxes aren't taxes
[15:41] {nemo} yeah GS=vampire squid
[15:41] {dino} ok
[15:41] {nemo} watch their relative strength every day
[15:41] {nemo} they were in the top 4 all day
[15:41] {nemo} too funny
[15:41] {dino} euro-bonds = print it away, right?
[15:41] {nemo} had tlt, xlp and xlu near the top
[15:42] {dptl} gn
[15:42] {nemo} also IYR was near the top in the morning and in the afternoon
[15:42] {nemo} Real Estate is is almost always only strong when the market is strong
[15:43] {_dolores} thxs vad
[15:43] {_dolores} take care guys
[15:43] {dino} cya
[15:45] {dino} hmmm just missed filling open gaps
[15:50] {Threei}  still no elaboration on that line
[15:53] {Threei}  see-saw day, somewhat frustrating
[15:53] {Beau} gn all  tomorrow will be better
[15:53] {Threei}  cluster of wins, cluster of stops
[15:54] {Threei}  thank you all, have a goo evening
[15:54] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:59] {dino} gn all

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

June 27 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  )


Nice strong day with a lot of trades working like charm. A few stops here and there couldn't spoil the picture. One of trades made a Catch of the Day, annotations on the chart say it all:


 
Session Time: Wed Jun 27 00:00:00 2012
[09:04] {Threei}  Soros is at it again
[09:04] {Threei}  http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-24/soros-pushes-eu-to-start-joint-debt-fund-or-risk-summit-fiasco"
[09:08] {_jackharry} good morning
[09:09] {Threei}  morning jack
[09:09] {Threei}  got your _ back for some reason? :)
[09:09] {nemo} gm john harold
[09:10] {Threei}  force of habit I guess
[09:10] {jackharry} just signed in with wrong name
[09:13] {jimmy} gm
[09:13] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:14] {dptl} gm
[09:14] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:16] {Beau} good morning ll
[09:16] {Beau} all
[09:16] {Threei}  beau
[09:17] {Beau} no graphs showing on charts, anyone else??
[09:17] {nemo} so, we're right in the 3 o'clock range on spy
[09:17] {Threei}  OK here... switch chart server
[09:18] {Threei}  in menu, Quote - Switch ChartServer
[09:18] {Beau} ok now  thanks
[09:20] {ese} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {scottie} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:30] {Threei}  looks like buying pullbacks is the first thing to do
[09:31] {Threei}  a bit overextended run, pullback time
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  SPXU  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  .c .40
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:33] {Threei}  hl
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:34] {Threei}  SPY double top if can't break .60
[09:35] {dino} gm
[09:35] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:35] {nemo} orly dino
[09:35] {Threei}  broke, FCX invalidated
[09:36] {ese} dino
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .45 break
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:37] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  32 break
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:39] {nemo} flashing big offfer here .03
[09:40] {Threei}  loss of .60 should send SPY to about .40
[09:41] {Threei}  which should give us our 1:2 on TZA
[09:41] {Threei}  FCX, cover half near .90
[09:41] {Threei}  TZA 1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  half out FCX
[09:42] {Threei}  both stop to b/e
[09:45] {dino} 07 red
[09:46] {Threei}  out 1/4 more FCX here
[09:46] {Threei}  .85
[09:47] {Threei}  and TZA hits target, 1:2
[09:47] {Threei}  out in full
[09:47] {Threei}  FCX last piece stop to .96
[09:49] {Threei}  let's try for the last part FCX under .80
[09:49] {Threei}  there you go
[09:49] {Threei}  feel free to copver
[09:49] {Threei}  out .77
[09:49] {Threei}  not too shabby for 6 cents initial risk
[09:51] {nemo} tna .91
[09:51] {nemo} stop under .80
[09:52] {nemo} 1/2 .03
[09:53] {ese} Lsre .09
[09:53] {nemo} 1/4 .16
[09:53] {nemo} stop under the whole
[09:54] {_dolores} GM
[09:54] {ese} out sre .26
[09:54] {ese} +.17
[09:54] {ese} good enough
[09:54] {Beau} gj ese
[09:54] {Threei}  morning dolores
[09:54] {nemo} trading blocks on the dark pools again, ese
[09:54] {Threei}  missed two goood ones :(
[09:55] {ese} tks B
[09:55] {nemo} putting stop at .95
[09:56] {jackharry} nice call on FCX, unfortunately my break even stop triggered on the little move back to 32 at 9.44!! Typical!!
[09:56] {Threei}  wait
[09:56] {Threei}  b/e stops are located 1 cent beyond level
[09:56] {Threei}  break of 32 would be a stop
[09:56] {ese} have gone legit nemo.............
[09:56] {Threei}  which it never did
[09:57] {Threei}  if trigger was "32 break", then 32 became new resistance
[09:57] {dino} orly sm l .81
[09:57] {Threei}  fornmer support
[09:57] {Threei}  thus break of it signifies stop
[09:58] {nemo} stop .09
[09:58] {Threei}  makes sense, jack?
[09:58] {nemo} out
[09:59] {nemo} there I go, tighten my stop again...sheesh
[10:00] {scottie} nemo, when you took tna, did you consider it a double bottom?
[10:00] {ese} either i'm getting older and slower nemo or i'm picking the wrong stocks these days........have had a couple in the last week where i go to type the buy on the board and look up only to see it's seriously jumped up........it's almost disorientating
[10:00] {nemo} housing huge beat
[10:00] {ese} disorientaing
[10:00] {ese} no disorienting.....hmmm
[10:01] {Threei}  (US) MAY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 5.9% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 15.3% V 9.9%E
[10:01] {nemo} scottie...db on both iwm and spy, and spy was at support from the last hour of yesterday
[10:01] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/sAmub
[10:01] {scottie} thanks
[10:01] {jackharry} yep, thanks threei
[10:02] {dino} out orly .05, +1.24 ty nemo for idea
[10:02] {nemo} your kinda' stock
[10:02] {Threei}  wtg dino
[10:03] {dino} appreciate it, i was running late today
[10:03] {ese} nice dino
[10:03] {nemo} saw it on the drop list this morning...remember you trading it before
[10:06] {nemo} gap close coming
[10:07] {Threei}  (EU) Cyprus Fin Min indicates the applications to join the EFSF from Spain and Cyprus have been accepted
[10:07] {nemo} kick myself...had the frickin' bottom
[10:07] {Threei}  initial idea to buy pullback played out well... didn't get a setup in time, but nemo did
[10:08] {Threei}  FCX is relatively weak
[10:09] {Threei}  barely reached its old high while SPY made new one big time
[10:09] {Threei}  let's see if we get SPY reversal on which we'd short FCX
[10:15] {Threei}  better yet, LVS
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break hl
[10:16] {thomcbell} qcom right at broken support near 55
[10:16] {Threei}  don't chase if missed, let it bounce back
[10:16] {Threei}  alerted a bit too close to break time
[10:18] {Threei}  who got it, 1:1
[10:18] {cc_8} lvs working out
[10:19] {ese} L rio .25
[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  32 break
[10:20] {Threei}  change to .05 break
[10:21] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:21] {ese} lets just let this run shall we.....rio stop to .26......
[10:23] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[10:23] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:25] {Threei}  FCX hesitates here a bit but stop is tight enough, let's let it trade
[10:25] {Threei}  LVS stop for the last part is .82
[10:27] {Threei}  if/whe SPY loses 133, FCX should start working
[10:27] {thomcbell} short setup qcom 54.80 break if holding 54.88
[10:28] {thomcbell} invalidated - will keep watching for setup
[10:28] {Threei}  LVS is about to lose .70 and proceed to 1:3
[10:29] {nemo} spy iwm bull flag coming into trends
[10:29] {dino} took some orly july 80 calls
[10:30] {Threei}  here we go LVS
[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: -133K V -500KE; GASOLINE: +2.1M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -2.28M V +1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 92.6% V 91.9%E
[10:30] {Threei}  cover it in full here
[10:31] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Barroso: Mistake to think EU can easily solve crisis
[10:31] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:32] {Threei}  FCX stopped
[10:33] {Threei}  maybe just a rinse but
[10:33] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Barroso: - AAA countries must commit to solidarity for Euro project to work
[10:34] {Threei}  they are AAA not for long... especially if they "commit" as he wants
[10:34] {thomcbell} short setup qcom 54.85 break if holding 54.97
[10:35] {Threei}  rating agencies should get downgrades on EU counties out of the way before they start cutting US, right?
[10:35] {Threei}  what do you know, LVS had 1:4 in it
[10:36] {Threei}  and more
[10:36] {Threei}  the power of relative strenght setups... (or realtive weakness as this case would have it)
[10:37] {thomcbell} qcom pierced the level - still strong - trade never triggered but currently invalid
[10:38] {thomcbell} looks like a long here but not playing that
[10:40] {Threei}  yeah, FCX rinsed
[10:42] {ese} ah well....stopped rio .27 +.02
[10:43] {Threei}  watching TZA for pullback entry
[10:45] {ese} L rio .26
[10:46] {nemo} bounce time
[10:48] {ese} hopefully....
[10:49] {Threei}  a bit more TZA please... want it around .20
[10:52] {ese} a dash of Dow.....some spyder legs .......andddd  voila!!!!!! the mrkt does eggzacitlly what vad wants........seen this time and time again.......it's scary....IT"S!!!!!!!! VOODOO!!!!!!!!!!!
[10:52] {nemo} if it doesn't pop here IWM should drop to ..80ish and spy...mmmhhhh .80ish...weird....weird-fitting for vad's room
[10:56] {Threei}  'l faz .75 break
[10:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .75 break
[10:56] {nemo} great I took tna .65
[10:56] {nemo} 1/2 .76
[10:57] {nemo} 1/4 more .97
[10:57] {nemo} I mean .87 sorry
[10:58] {nemo} stop is .64
[10:58] {nemo} ain't frickin doin that again
[10:58] {ese} in faz .75
[10:59] {nemo} inertia wants a gap close I think
[10:59] {Threei}  not sure abiout that after losing .70 ese
[11:00] {ese} ya am thinkin same
[11:00] {ese} stop is .66
[11:00] {ese} stopped -.09 1/2 lot
[11:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[11:01] {nemo} folks, it bounced at vwap, which was the proverbial hair under the first swing high, that is support
[11:01] {Threei}  If holds  .15  for scalpers, .10 day traders
[11:01] {nemo} also, spy DB'd at the 38.2 retracement of the low to high at the same time
[11:02] {nemo} http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3a33e818-336c-480d-98a1-4499450f23d7
[11:02] {nemo} stop to .69
[11:02] {nemo} should be under .90, but wtf
[11:03] {nemo} under .90 IWM that is
[11:04] {Threei}  58% Think Federal Government Encourages Illegal Immigration
[11:05] {nemo} proves the moronic level of the other 42%
[11:05] {Threei}  hey, 77% think US should send money to EU... whta to say about 23%?
[11:05] {nemo} people fly here to have their kids..born in the USA they're US citizens...they and the mother then qualify for Social Security
[11:06] {nemo} Knew this woman who was a lawyer in Portugal....She did just that...we send her monthly social security checks for her and her child back in portugal
[11:09] {nemo} o.k. tna you're putting me to sleep
[11:09] {Threei}  hmmm... is ranked 5th most romantic city in Canada...
[11:09] {Threei}  do I look all that romantic to any of you?
[11:09] {Threei}  Victoria that is
[11:09] {nemo} probably to a pitbull
[11:10] {Threei}  ese, yes, he is romantic
[11:10] {Threei}  drums and all that
[11:10] {nemo} yeah, ese's got style
[11:10] {Threei}  stop to .14 for day traders too
[11:11] {ese} I usually walk around with a scowl on my face to discourage people from coming back so that I can live in peace and quiet
[11:11] {Threei}  but that's romantic scowl
[11:11] {ese} ahhhhhhh  yes......yes........the romantic scowl.......thats it that what it is
[11:12] {Threei}  and drum has this label on it saying: if I beat you up with my stick, that's is a very romantic deed on my part
[11:12] {Threei}  gosh, drop already, SPY
[11:12] {ese} lol
[11:13] {Threei}  what's with this gravity denial
[11:13] {nemo} out
[11:13] {Threei}  half out TZA .28
[11:13] {Threei}  scalpers be free
[11:13] {Threei}  stop to .18 for the second half
[11:14] {Threei}  further plan: 1/4 near .35 and 1/4 above .40
[11:18] {Threei}  (GR) National Bank of Greece Chairman Rapanos resigns citing health issues - press
[11:18] {Threei}  health issues - I am sick and tired of you'll?
[11:20] {dptl} sbac .60long?
[11:21] {Threei}  ummm
[11:21] {Threei}  yes
[11:21] {Threei}  lol
[11:22] {dptl} pulls back may be
[11:23] {Threei}  hard to tell... it's a bit on a narrow side
[11:23] {Threei}  and is at 1:1 already
[11:23] {dptl} fdo?
[11:24] {Threei}  69 break looks right but keep size on a smaller side
[11:24] {Threei}  pulpy a bit
[11:25] {dptl} was thinkimg .90 break long
[11:25] {Threei}  to clear the slang for newer members... "pulp" refers to stocks with bigger swings, reference to Seinfield... "pulp can move, baby!"
[11:28] {nemo} mmmmhhh, arguably long setups here iwm spy
[11:29] {nemo} long upro .90
[11:29] {nemo} stop under .80
[11:30] {nemo} 1/2 .04
[11:31] {nemo} I like spxu better than upro...not liquid enough
[11:32] {nemo} sucks too...have offers out and those sub penny transactions come in
[11:33] {Threei}  closed second half TZA
[11:33] {nemo} cmon give me .15
[11:34] {nemo} it's a conspiracy
[11:34] {Threei}  don't cry, we had very decent day so far
[11:35] {Threei}  this last SPY move is a bit out of whack
[11:35] {nemo} whewww
[11:35] {Threei}  if you managed to profit from it, take it and be thankful
[11:35] {nemo} who's crying...THAT'S paranoia
[11:36] {nemo} stop under spy .90
[11:36] {dino} good to see "pulp"
[11:36] {nemo} Using dead turkey's instead of the chickens today Vad
[11:37] {Threei}  I need to put together our room slang vocabulary, dino :)
[11:37] {nemo} with proper spellings of course
[11:37] {Threei}  pulp, windshield day etc
[11:37] {Threei}  Fitch: EU crisis continues to weigh on Global credit outlook- Downward pressure on sovereign ratings unlikely to decrease until Eurozone has a credible road-map to fiscal, financial and political integration
[11:38] {thomcbell} nws setting up long nicely here
[11:38] {Threei}  I am truly amazed... do they really think such integration can take place?
[11:38] {thomcbell} a bit sudden of a pop
[11:38] {Threei}  will sovereign states give up sovereignity and allow Brussels write their budgets?
[11:39] {nemo} not really Thom, market hit support levels, something had to happen
[11:39] {nemo} that's why I thought I saw long setups in IWM and SPY
[11:39] {nemo} o.k out last .33
[11:40] {Threei}  - Spain has deteriorated dramatically and its size and contagion to Italy make it more systematically important than Greece
[11:40] {jackharry} those same sovereign states already allow the majority of their laws to come from Brussels rather than their own parliaments, and they freely gave up control of their own currency and interest rates
[11:41] {thomcbell} long setup nws 22.30 break if holding 22.20
[11:42] {jackharry} they haven't been able to convince the people of the merits of going the next logical step, full fiscal and political integration, so now they are trying to scare them into accepting it
[11:42] {Threei}  sigh
[11:42] {Threei}  lesser stuff eneded in wars
[11:42] {jackharry} the whole thing stinks
[11:43] {dino} exactly 3i
[11:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .50 break
[11:43] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:44] {dino} and jackharry, as for scaring the people, it is way beyond that imo.
[11:44] {Threei}  target 1:2
[11:45] {dino} stc orly july 80 calls 3.40, +1.15
[11:47] {nemo} beatin' that one like a redheaded step child dino
[11:48] {thomcbell} qcom stopped its crazy strength
[11:48] {thomcbell} bo real entry ever given on the short but still think one may develop at some point
[11:51] {Threei}  MCD is on a slowish side... used to move faster earlier in the day
[11:52] {Threei}  if falling asleep, scratch it b/e
[11:53] {dino} lol nemo, having a good day w/it. thx again for heads' up
[11:55] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .20 break
[11:55] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:57] {Threei}  stop to .28
[11:58] {Threei}  no go MCD
[12:00] {Threei}  ditti GDX... I think I am pushing it
[12:00] {Threei}  random time
[12:00] {thomcbell} nws 1:1
[12:03] {thomcbell} target on nws is 22.55
[12:05] {dptl} fb .80?
[12:05] {Threei}  nah
[12:05] {nemo} gap closes coming
[12:08] {dino} 12,640, 2585, 1335
[12:10] {_abakas} threei, how many shares do u normally trade on a trade?
[12:11] {Threei}  dpends on a stock liquidity an d size of a stop, normal lot being 1000 shares
[12:11] {Threei}  when comment hl is made, it's a half lot
[12:11] {thomcbell} nws 1:2
[12:11] {Threei}  but it also should depend on one's trading account size
[12:12] {Threei}  which dictates max loss allowed for any single trade
[12:12] {thomcbell} made sale 22.55 nws
[12:13] {_abakas} how do u play the stops?  mental or hard stops
[12:13] {Threei}  mental
[12:14] {Threei}  hate hard ones, and use them only if I have to leave my computer with position open
[12:15] {dino} i like hard stops _abakas because i can be an idiot at times
[12:15] {dino} enforces discipline
[12:17] {_abakas} thobcbell, where do u put the stop on nws?
[12:19] {thomcbell} now 22.64
[12:20] {thomcbell} 1:4
[12:21] {thomcbell} stop too 22.70 nws
[12:22] {thomcbell} 1:5
[12:22] {thomcbell} stop to 22.78
[12:23] {thomcbell} out
[12:23] {thomcbell} thanks for the assist nemo - would not have done it without you
[12:23] {Threei}  wtg
[12:23] {Threei}  very nice one
[12:24] {_abakas} thomcbell, do u use the 5 min chart for such trades?
[12:25] {thomcbell} i like to use 10 minute on top of a 1 minute chart
[12:25] {thomcbell} look at about 6 names all the time
[12:25] {_abakas} ty
[12:25] {thomcbell} that one was the best 1 minute cup i have seen in some time
[12:26] {thomcbell} on the 1 min i use vad bollinger inputs
[12:26] {thomcbell} vad's
[12:29] {_abakas} i use 5minute...what do u think?
[12:29] {Threei}  abakas, look at one of our typical trades, will help to visuakize:
[12:29] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/sAmub
[12:37] {_abakas} threei, what stocks do u normally trade?
[12:37] {Threei}  pretty much anything that sets up and allows reasonable risk control
[12:38] {_abakas} do u trade aapl, cf, nflx, etc..
[12:39] {Threei}  not as a norm
[12:39] {nemo} quite the support in orly
[12:39] {thomcbell} Come on vad - slw fcx lvs tza
[12:39] {thomcbell} those never come off the screen
[12:39] {Threei}  AAPL is not really one where you can maintain tight stop
[12:39] {Threei}  well, they are staple stocks
[12:39] {Threei}  but it changes
[12:40] {thomcbell} wow these nat gas stocks
[12:42] {dino} could be because epa ruling, hurts coal fired power plants
[12:42] {thomcbell} yes most definitely
[12:43] {thomcbell} gap and go's
[12:44] {dino} lncr spike
[12:47] {dino} lncr rumors takeover bid coming
[12:50] {ese} anybody on this board from the UK ...Cambridge area
[12:50] {Threei}  ARNA halt
[12:51] {jackharry} from the UK, no where near Cambridge though
[12:51] {ese} just got off the phone with someone at the Cambridge rock festival whos interested in having The Midnights perform there
[12:51] {ese} hey Jack....you could be somebody i'd like to talk to
[12:52] {dino} bto july lncr 31 calls 1.70
[12:52] {ese} where in the UK?
[12:53] {jackharry} Northern Ireland
[12:54] {dino} opps, that was puts not calls, sorry
[12:55] {Threei}  VVUS lost itas mind
[12:55] {dino} vvus voodoo
[12:55] {_abakas} do u use L-2?
[12:55] {Threei}  ARNA FDA has granted approval for the weight loss drug Belviq (lorcaserin) - financial press (8.73, -0.12, -1.36%) (related OREX VVUS WTW )
[12:55] {Threei}  yes
[12:56] {thomcbell} qcom still valid in my opinion
[12:56] {thomcbell} if holds 55.03
[12:56] {dino} thx 3i
[12:59] {Threei}  OREX too
[12:59] {thomcbell} tightening the stop to 55.01 on qcom
[13:01] {_abakas} threei, I use IB software for trading...what do u think?
[13:02] {Threei}  not the fastest... not the worst
[13:03] {_abakas} what do u use?
[13:03] {Threei}  if you prefer fast stocks, I'd pick faster software
[13:03] {Threei}  Laser
[13:03] {Threei}  talk to cc_8 to get demo
[13:04] {_abakas} IB allows only 3 L2 which is a problem...
[13:04] {cc_8} i can get you more via laser or sterling
[13:04] {_abakas} how many L2 u can open?
[13:05] {Threei}  I don't think there is a limit
[13:05] {Threei}  your screen real etstae and procesor power will limit it before Laser does :)
[13:06] {_abakas} which one do u recommend?
[13:06] {Threei}  [13:03] {Threei} Laser
[13:06] {_abakas} how much they charge per transaction?
[13:07] {Threei}  talk to cc_8 please
[13:07] {Threei}  double-click on his name to open private chat
[13:08] {thomcbell} out -0.06 on qcom half lot
[13:09] {Threei}  Arizona: Romney 54%, Obama 41%
[13:09] {dino} yeah baby
[13:09] {Threei}  can we limit election to arizona?
[13:11] {Threei}  ARNA's is a first new weight loss drug approved in 13 years
[13:20] {dptl} apc .74 short?
[13:20] {dptl} or .70
[13:21] {Threei}  can't tell really
[13:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  20 break
[13:24] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[13:26] {dino} gas dropping hard, boil, ugaz
[13:29] {Threei}  ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc Hearing Deutsche Bank cuts price target to $85 from $102
[13:29] {dptl} in tza
[13:30] {Threei}  this statement below doesn't breath confidencem does it:
[13:30] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Chancellor Merkel: euro zone is in a serious situation; hope to see growth pact approved at the EU summit tomorrow- Merkel: reiterates we need "more Europe." Markets are awaiting a Europe that functions. - France President Hollande: Germany Chancellor Merkel and I agree progress has been made on growth measures; must 'deepen' the EMU
[13:30] {Threei}  target 1:2, two partials
[13:30] {Threei}  scalpers don't need my advice
[13:31] {Threei}  {scalpers} who are you?
[13:31] {scottie} there's none here
[13:32] {Threei}  1:1
[13:32] {Threei}  play by the book
[13:32] {Threei}  not a creative trade
[13:32] {scottie} half .09 +.10
[13:33] {dptl} did not got filled
[13:34] {Threei}  if it retreats from exact level, just hit .09
[13:34] {Threei}  don't be a penny smart
[13:37] {Threei}  there you go
[13:37] {Threei}  forthose who needs repetition
06[13:37] * Threei slants at dp
[13:37] {dptl} ya half out
[13:38] {Threei}  cool
[13:38] {dptl} ty
[13:38] {Threei}  let's see if we get 1:2
[13:38] {Threei}  yw
[13:38] {dptl} can we trail stop to under .05
[13:38] {dptl} ?
[13:39] {Threei}  if you are very stingy...
[13:39] {Threei}  I'd still keep at .99
[13:39] {dptl} ok will keep it at be
[13:39] {Threei}  if it cpnsolidates above .10 and makes new high, then yes
[13:40] {Threei}  @Reuters: Gunmen drive van packed with gas canisters into Athens headquarters of Microsoft
[13:40] {Threei}  hmmm... it all must be a MSFT fault
[13:43] {Threei}  ARNA opens in 5 min
[13:43] {Threei}  in 2
[13:44] {Threei}  if you feel sleepy, that should wake you right up
[13:44] {Threei}  and if you need adrenaline spike and have fresh diapers handy, go ahead and trade it
[13:46] {Threei}  I am afraid I just provoked cipher...
[13:46] {dptl} len .40 short?
[13:47] {Threei}  if SPY loses 133, yes, should work
[13:54] {Threei}  LEN 1:1
[13:54] {dptl} did not take it , it broke before spy did. hesitated
[14:03] {dino} out aap 65 calls 2.00 +.65
[14:14] {Threei}  crying about LEN second chance yet, dp?
[14:16] {dptl} well....those moves back and forth i just can read them
[14:17] {dptl} can't
[14:19] {Threei}  I know but how else can I spoil your mood?
[14:19] {dptl} :)
[14:23] {Threei}  be back in 20
[14:23] {Threei}  and that's the case I set auto stop for the balance of TZA
[14:29] {dino} .
[14:34] {nemo} XOM
[14:34] {dino} no gap fills yet
[14:35] {nemo} may be close enough for government work
[14:41] {dino} lol, not!
[14:41] {dino} tomorrow pop to fill then death drop
[14:41] {Threei}  back
[14:42] {Threei}  didn't miss much I see
[14:42] {dptl} short pot .98
[14:43] {dptl} .05 stop
[14:43] {Threei}  there has to be a joke in there somewhere...
[14:43] {dptl} lol
[14:43] {Threei}  :)
[14:44] {dptl} well the whole market is like a buch of pot heads lol
[14:46] {Threei}  yes but not all of them are short on pot... {G}
[14:46] {dptl} :) true
[14:57] {Threei}  Federal judge refuses to stop Florida from removing potentially non-US citizens from its rolls
[14:57] {Threei}  The U.S. Department of Justice sued the state to halt the purge, arguing it was going on too close to a federal election.
[14:57] {Threei}  are they complete imbeciles?
[14:58] {Threei}  U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle uled that federal laws are designed to block states from removing eligible voters close to an election. He said they are not designed to stop states from blocking voters who should have never been allowed to cast ballots in the first place.
[14:58] {dino} unbelievable, they want to allow non-citizens to vote
[14:59] {Threei}  every time I think there must be a limit to idiocy, they prove me wrong
[15:01] {nemo} orly looking short, reasonable stop
[15:03] {nemo} 1:1 if you got it
[15:05] {dptl} apol short .74?
[15:06] {Threei}  not sure
[15:08] {dino} gotta hop, thx for ideas (especially nemo on orly, aap)
[15:08] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:08] {Threei}  (EU) European leaders work to establish framework of solutions before summit begins tomorrow - FT- Officials indicate the most likely plan is to use the �440B rescue funds to purchase Italy and Spain bonds, and to do so new reform conditions would need to be put in place assuming the purchased bonds were at auction rather than in the open market
[15:09] {_abakas} are we done for the day?
[15:09] {dino} i am
[15:10] {dptl} out tza
[15:10] {Threei}  50 min still
[15:10] {Threei}  things may or may not come alive
[15:11] {Threei}  TZA, scalpers win
[15:11] {nemo} it's like hunting abakas
[15:12] {nemo} this is good for orly market up orly not
[15:12] {dptl} stopped pot
[15:13] {Threei} Short Setup: ARNA  11 break smallish shares
[15:13] {nemo} they're trying to keep orly up, but...bids getting hit
[15:13] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[15:20] {Threei}  needless to say, invalidated
[15:32] {scottie} gotta go, see you all tomorrow
[15:32] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:34] {Threei}  27% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
[15:34] {Threei}  ummm
[15:35] {Threei}  those who think "off a cliff" is right direction I guess
[15:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  AMT  .60 break hl
[15:38] {Threei}  stop .54
[15:40] {Threei}  half out
[15:40] {Threei}  scalpers be free
[15:41] {Beau} .12 thx vad
[15:41] {Threei}  :)
[15:45] {Threei}  OK guys, I guess that'd be all for the day,
[15:45] {Threei}  nice one at that
[15:45] {Threei}  Thank you all, have a great evening
[15:45] {Threei}  let's get them again tomorrow
[15:47] {Beau} gn all
[15:47] {dptl} gn