Monday, December 31, 2012

Dec 31 2012

Despite headlines football, we ended the year on a nice profitable note and profitable trade. More to come next year. Happy New Year everyone, let me treat you to the last sunset of 2012.





Session Time: Mon Dec 31 00:00:01 2012
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:06] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:07] {dino} :)
01[09:07] {Threei}  (US) Senator Corker (R-TN): reiterates will probably be a deal today but without any meaningful deficit reduction - CNBC interview summary- Appears that the deficit reduction negotiation will be done around the debt ceiling authorization. - Suggests there should be 1-for-1 match between deficit reduction and debt ceiling authorization (e.g. $1T in entitlement reform in exchange for $1T in debt ceiling increase)
01[09:08] {Threei}  (US) Fiscal Cliff update: Democrats are said to offer tax concessions - financial press (update
01[09:08] {Threei}  )- Democrats are said to have agreed to raise the income threshold for tax increases to $450K a year (couples) from $250K. The Republicans are insisting on $550K threshold
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats are said want to raise capital gains and dividend taxes to 20% on households over $250K and reduce some allowable deductions
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats offer to maintain the threshold for taxable estates at $5M, with a 35% rate over that level
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats would permanently protect middle-class households from the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and delay the "sequester" automatic spending cuts until 2015. Republicans say they want spending cuts to offset the postponement of the sequester
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats would extend unemployment benefits for a year, extend farm subsidies for a year and avoid a 27% cut in Medicare payments to doctors. The Republicans say they want offsets to these spending cuts.
01[09:08] {Threei}  ***Note that overnight, there were reports that Democrats were balking at a last minute
[09:10] {scottie} good morning
01[09:12] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {cipher} gm
01[09:17] {Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:19] {Threei}  when did I know the fical cliff negotiations were doomed?
01[09:19] {Threei}  when they said they reached to Joe Biden for help
[09:20] {dptl} good morning
01[09:22] {Threei}  dp :)
01[09:27] {Threei}  FB formed .30 breakdown, but didn't wait fore open
[09:29] {dino} cvs gap fill 12/13
[09:31] {cipher} ebay l .35
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .05 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:33] {dino} wpi drop
01[09:34] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {thomcbell} slw strong as 10 men all the sudden
[09:36] {dino} wpi sm l .00
[09:36] {cipher} CELG L .31
[09:37] {cipher} out +.10
[09:37] {cipher} out ebay .70 +.35
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .90 break
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  161
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: DB  .50 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  FB
01[09:39] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[09:42] {dptl} nem .55 long?
[09:43] {dptl} or .45 short
01[09:43] {Threei}  can't tell on a long side
01[09:43] {Threei}  short looks right
[09:44] {dino} wpi stop flat
[09:47] {dino} re-load sm l wpi .51
[09:49] {cipher} nice entry
[09:49] {dino} ty
[09:50] {dptl} nem .60long now? if holds .50
01[09:50] {Threei}  not delighted by it
[09:50] {dptl} ok
[09:52] {dino} wpi to .91
[09:53] {dino} out wpi +.40
01[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:55] {dino} brb
[09:56] {cipher} tcbi l.29
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .45 break
01[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:58] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Hopeful for deal today; talks are progressing, but we are not there yet; Tax increase thresholds are the 'least of the issues' at the moment
[09:58] {cipher} wpi l .00
01[09:58] {Threei}  stop .58
[09:58] {dptl} in fb .48
01[09:59] {Threei}  (US) CNBC's John Harwood: Democrats said to be seeking more conditions on any agreement to raise income thresholds for extension of Bush tax cuts- Democrats are said to be willing to move income threshold to $400-450K if the highest tax brackets go all the way back up to Clinton era rates (36% and 39.6% were the two top Clinton era rates) and some revenue raised from estate tax increases. ***Note that earlier this morning, reports indicated that Democrats were willing to go as high as $450K threshold, if there were some offsets in other areas. The earlier reports also had indicated that the Democrats were willing to let estate taxes stay at current levels as a concession to Republicans.
01[10:00] {Threei}  Incredible... this whole thing was born out of spending cuts debates - and now there is no single word about spending cuts, it's all about tax raise
01[10:01] {Threei}  and for the comic relief: - White House Official: Talks between VP Biden and Senate Minority Leader McConnell made progress overnight
[10:01] {cipher} out wpi .13 +.13
01[10:02] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[10:02] {dptl} out half fb ty
[10:04] {dino} calm, mgln
[10:05] {thomcbell} wow aapl
[10:06] {thomcbell} lvs looks like a long setup 45.25 break
[10:06] {dino} mgln hl l .75
[10:06] {thomcbell} stop currtently too far
01[10:06] {Threei}  this must be the most disingenuous phrase characterizing the state of negotiations: "if there is no deal, that's because it's very hard for Boehner and McConnel to accept that taxes go up a little bit on millionares and billionares.
[10:07] {thomcbell} VAD LVS ?
01[10:07] {Threei}  spending cuts don't even enter his vocabul;ary
01[10:07] {Threei}  can't tell LVS
01[10:08] {Threei}  invalidated setup earlier
[10:10] {thomcbell} the entire thing is bananas
[10:10] {thomcbell} we will be dealing with debt ceiling and overall debt load for the entire year
01[10:10] {Threei}  here is what baffles me the most
01[10:11] {Threei}  for the first time in history US has president that sincerely believes that he needs to cut US down in power and influence
[10:11] {dino} been going on for 4 years why does that suddenly baffle you
01[10:11] {Threei}  and US elected him twice
01[10:11] {Threei}  this "elected twice" part that baffles me :)
[10:12] {dino} bunch of bleeding heart liberals
01[10:12] {Threei}  there were good presidents and bad presidents... but there was no president in the past that wanted to diminish US
[10:13] {cipher} lvnta s .15
01[10:13] {Threei}  FB 1:2
[10:13] {dptl} out fb ty
01[10:14] {Threei}  finally something works decently
01[10:14] {Threei}  yw
[10:14] {dptl} :)
[10:14] {cipher} cov lvnta -.05
[10:15] {cipher} ibm l .00
[10:17] {dptl} coh .30 short?
[10:18] {cipher} out ibm -.12
01[10:18] {Threei}  yucky stock
01[10:18] {Threei}  shakeout incorporated
[10:18] {dino} mgln stop -.24
[10:19] {dptl} lrcx .50 long?
[10:20] {cipher} coh l .25
[10:22] {cipher} out .33
[10:23] {cipher} ibm l .85
[10:25] {dino} wpi hl l .60
[10:26] {cipher} out ibm .10 +.25
[10:27] {cipher} wpi l .67
[10:28] {cipher} out .84
01[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) DEC DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: +6.8 V -2.8 PRIOR
[10:30] {cipher} WPI L .70
[10:32] {cipher} out .78
[10:34] {dptl} nem .70long?
01[10:35] {Threei}  none of previous setups on it worked
01[10:35] {Threei}  what is it that attracts you for another try?
[10:35] {cipher} CRZO l .28
01[10:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:36] {dptl} ye you right....
[10:36] {cipher} ibm l.04
01[10:36] {Threei}  If holds  .46
[10:37] {cipher} out ibm .20
[10:38] {cipher} out crzo .34  +.06
[10:40] {thomcbell} FB looks like a 26.50 break if holding 26.40
01[10:41] {Threei}  FCX valid still
[10:45] {thomcbell} FB invalid
[10:45] {dptl} in .38 fcx
[10:47] {scottie} stop .48 ?
[10:48] {dino} wpi drop
01[10:48] {Threei}  yesa
[10:50] {dino} wpi hl l .00 trig
01[10:52] {Threei}  no go
[10:52] {cipher} wpi l .95
[10:53] {scottie} MDT s .30 ?
[10:53] {nemo} o.k. I feel ignored
01[10:54] {Threei}  I'd better hunt for aggressive entry on it
[10:54] {scottie} .35 ?
01[10:54] {Threei}  arounf .40 - .45
[10:54] {scottie} ok
01[10:54] {Threei}  hmmm... why would you nemo
[10:54] {nemo} faux sensitivity
01[10:54] {Threei}  we saw you, thought about it, decided to ignore you - isn't it a suign that we care?
[10:55] {cipher} out wpi .18 +.23 thx dino
[10:55] {dino} gj
[10:55] {dino} welcome back nemo
[10:55] {nemo} headed back out...last day to kill something edible...then it's kill things that kill season
[10:56] {nemo} was out in the treestand having a conversation with a fox this morning...that was weird
01[10:56] {Threei}  did he have an opinion about fiscal cliff?
[10:56] {nemo} how bout those jets dino?
[10:57] {nemo} no, just on the quality of the rodents in the area
[10:57] {cipher} crzo l .11
[10:57] {dino} ughhhh jets
01[10:57] {Threei}  he might have just the right perspective then...
[10:59] {cipher} out crzo -.06
[10:59] {thomcbell} the jets are unwatchable
[11:00] {dino} seriously, until sanchoke is gone, no watching
[11:02] {dino} coh hl l .25
[11:03] {dino} we get a deal? things are popping
01[11:04] {Threei}  no
01[11:05] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Talks are continuing; a few issues still separate the sides from an agreement; cooperation needed from both sides to reach a deal
[11:05] {dino} cooperation, as in what toppings for the lunch pizzas
[11:06] {thomcbell} what are the chances Pelozi has a meat topping - not only that she definitely dabs the pizza with a superabsorbent paper towel
[11:06] {dino} lol
[11:07] {thomcbell} a definite flag for potential spouses - both ways
01[11:09] {Threei}  (IL) Israel PM Netanyahu: Israel faces growing threat of cyber attacks from Iran
01[11:09] {Threei}  really?
01[11:09] {Threei}  that's what they are worried about?
[11:09] {scottie} What do you think of MDT now
01[11:10] {Threei}  .40 break looks legit short trigger
[11:10] {scottie} tks
01[11:10] {Threei}  (US) CNBC's John Harwood: A 60-90 days worth of cuts package being designed to replace the 'sequestration' program in Congress- Talks are expected to continue all day, any annoucement most likely won't come when the Senate resumes talks at 11ET. - Designing cuts that would get them to the debt ceiling debate later this year
01[11:10] {Threei}  beautiful
01[11:11] {Threei}  they just replace one crisis with another
[11:11] {dino} makes them feel important
[11:12] {dptl} btu .90 long?
01[11:13] {Threei}  looks like, yes
[11:14] {dptl} in .92
[11:14] {scottie} in too
[11:16] {dino} out wpi .46, +.41
[11:18] {cipher} wtg
01[11:19] {Threei}  nice
[11:23] {dino} ty
[11:24] {thomcbell} i am most likely gone for the rest of today - have a good new year everyone
[11:25] {dino} you too tbell
01[11:25] {Threei}  take care tbell, happoy new year
01[11:25] {Threei}  see you Wed
[11:25] {cipher} wpi s .76
[11:25] {scottie} tbell
[11:26] {scottie} in MDT .44 stop .51
[11:26] {cipher} cov wpi .69 +.07
[11:28] {cipher} ibm l .49
[11:30] {cipher} out .60 +.11
[11:30] {dino} c hl l .73
[11:34] {cipher} crzo l .00
[11:39] {scottie} btu stop .83
[11:40] {cipher} out crzo .10 +.10
01[11:41] {Threei}  BTU chews its way to 1:1
[11:41] {scottie} mdt out
[11:42] {scottie} btu half out
[11:46] {dptl} wheu...out half
01[11:57] {Threei}  (US) Main sticking point in fiscal cliff discussions said to be the sequester time frame; Republicans still want any delay in sequester to be offset by other budget cuts - financial press- Democrats seeking a 2 year delay in sequester (would cost $200B), with Republicans asking for 60-90 days
[12:03] {dptl} i am out btu
[12:04] {nemo} http://m.baltimoreravens.com/account/client/ravens/ravens.viewnewsItem.jspa?entry=55954
01[12:05] {Threei}  NYSE volume 190M shares, about 24% below its three-month average; . - NASDAQ volume 510M shares, about 30% below its three-month average
01[12:13] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
[12:16] {nemo} o.k. c u next year. P&Q, don't let the door hit you on the way out...
01[12:17] {Threei}  take care nemo :)
[12:17] {scottie} nemo
[12:23] {scottie} fb stop .47 ?
[12:23] {dino} cya nemo
01[12:24] {Threei}  yes
[12:33] {dptl} in fb .39
01[12:40] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to make statement on fiscal cliff discussions at 13:30ET
01[12:40] {Threei}  headline football
[12:40] {dino} oh great, he'll drop us again
[12:40] {dptl} stopped fb
[12:40] {dino} out coh .69, +.44
[12:45] {scottie} out btu +.19 tks dp
[12:45] {scottie} first winner today
[12:45] {dptl} yw
01[12:47] {Threei}  did you skip FB short for 1:2 earlier?
[12:47] {scottie} yes
[12:48] {dino} out c .17, +.44
01[12:59] {Threei} Short Setup: GM  .20 break
01[12:59] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[13:01] {dptl} in .19
01[13:04] {Threei}  on a campain trail forever:
01[13:04] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to make statement on fiscal cliff discussions at 13:30ET; Will be joined by a group of "middle class Americans"
01[13:04] {Threei}  do they grab those on the street?
01[13:05] {Threei}  - News reports suggest that McConnell will be briefing GOP colleagues this afternoon about the broad outline of a deal discussed with VP Biden (**Note: Earlier reports suggested that Senator McConnell was scheduled to meet with colleagues at 14:00ET). Several news outlets report that the length of the sequester delay is still a sticking point, with the White House seeking a one year delay of sequester cuts and Republicans only willing to delay them 60-90 days (within the timeframe of the upcoming the debt ceiling negotiation).
01[13:05] {Threei}  - Reportedly GOP aides say the majority Republicans may be willing to support a tentative deal that would include a permanent extension of middle class tax cuts with a $450K income threshold, raising $600B in revenue. Under the tentative deal, dividends and capital gains would be taxed at 23.8% for high income households, the estate tax would rise to 40% from 35%, child tax credits and college tax credits would be extended for five years. It is also said to include a "doc fix" to prevent Medicare payments to doctors being slashed in 2013
[13:05] {dptl} no fill
01[13:06] {Threei}  trail to .21 nonetheless
01[13:06] {Threei}  no reason to lose on this trade
[13:11] {scottie} out, didn't take my bid either... so close
[13:11] {dptl} stopped...cant beleive ididt get filled there
[13:21] {dptl} hal .15 long?
01[13:22] {Threei}  do you really want to take position a few min before Obama appearance?
[13:22] {dptl} oh...
[13:23] {dptl} right will wait
[13:23] {dino} lately obummer has been tanking the markets
01[13:24] {Threei}  judging from a group of "middle class Americans" he drags with him on the podium, it will be another hot air speech
[13:24] {dino} if he starts complaining, look for shorts
01[13:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  34 break is my idea
01[13:29] {Threei}  ugh... triggers prematurely
[13:29] {dptl} in
[13:30] {dino} fwiw he's usually 15-20 minutes late to a speech
[13:31] {dptl} am i in early?
01[13:31] {Threei}  who knows...
01[13:31] {Threei}  I hoped for it to trigger when he starts speaking
[13:32] {dptl} oh boy...ok stop .10
03[13:36] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[13:40] {dino} late as usual
01[13:40] {Threei}  still dragging in those middle class americans from the street, I guess
[13:41] {dino} www.whitehouse.gov/live
[13:41] {dptl} stopped......this holydays trading not good for me
[13:41] {dino} w/respect dp, you seem to be pushing
01[13:41] {Threei}  very much so
[13:42] {dino} imo thin trading=slower entries, less trading
01[13:42] {Threei}  ok, group is on the scene
[13:43] {dino} bunch of union workers
[13:45] {dino} lol they are all shorter than him
01[13:46] {Threei}  now FCX works
01[13:51] {Threei}  these people behind him are totally starstruck
[13:52] {_furthers} i think I am in
01[13:52] {Threei}  you sure are
01[13:52] {Threei}  dp... this FCX move is what I had in mind
[13:52] {dino} its staged, all of them are small to ,ake him look bigger
[13:53] {dino} welcome furthers
[13:53] {dptl} ya i see that...just didt get right idea i guess
[13:53] {dino} partial fill wpi l .53
01[13:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .35 break
01[13:53] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[13:56] {Threei}  ok... spech is done, slow creep-up should resume
01[13:57] {Threei}  let's try to partial GM in two stages, one is just under .45 and another above .50
01[14:00] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 305M shares, about 13% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 870M shares, about 19% below its three-month average
01[14:02] {Threei}  no strong push over .40 so far...
01[14:02] {Threei}  stop is very tight though, so willing to wait
06[14:03] * Threei kicks GM in the rear bumper
01[14:07] {Threei}  ok... first target hit
01[14:07] {Threei}  stop to .34
[14:07] {cipher} wpi l .33
[14:07] {scottie} didn't take my offer at .44
01[14:08] {Threei}  no, I hit .43
[14:08] {dptl} i took .42
01[14:08] {Threei}  learned lesson from the one that bounced 1 cent from tagert
01[14:09] {Threei}  today rules are a bit more laxed than usually
01[14:09] {Threei}  and with such tight stop allowing for double lot, don't want to let it slip through the fingers
01[14:10] {Threei}  let's see now if we can get new high
01[14:19] {Threei}  OK... push again, GM
01[14:20] {Threei}  even though you are no-good government-financed producer of crappy autos, it doesn't mean we can't profit from you
[14:21] {cipher} out coh -.08
[14:22] {scottie} out .47 +.10
[14:22] {scottie} tks Vad
01[14:22] {Threei}  yw
[14:31] {dptl} out .50 ty
01[14:32] {Threei}  out .54
01[14:32] {Threei}  whe
01[14:32] {Threei}  w
01[14:32] {Threei}  according to a plan
01[14:32] {Threei}  min risk, decent move
[14:33] {cipher} out wpi .54 +.21
01[14:33] {Threei}  wtg
[14:34] {cipher} ty
[14:39] {dptl} hes?
[14:44] {scottie} cbs l .90 ?
01[14:44] {Threei}  couple min of consolidation for HES, and break will be interesting
01[14:44] {Threei}  CBS, late
01[14:45] {Threei}  not liking it very much either
[14:46] {dptl} .50long hes
[14:48] {dptl} if holds .40
[14:49] {dptl} in
01[14:49] {Threei}  (US) SEnator McConnell: WE are very very close to a deal
[14:50] {scottie} entered on the puulback at .49
01[14:50] {Threei}  (US) Republican Aide: There is no Republican support for the unexpected White House proposal to raise taxes further to avoid spending cuts - financial pressSeparately the Senate floor debate on fiscal cliff continues: - Senator Hatch (R-UT): The fiscal cliff negotiations are "in flux." - Senator Mikulski (D-MD): The automatic sequester cuts should be delayed by a year or two. - Senator McCain (R-AZ): Obama's speech this afternoon was an inappropriate cheerleading event that ridiculed Republicans. His remarks will antagonize members of the House. Agree we do need a deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff, but Presidential leadership is lacking. - Senator Graham (R-SC): President Obama won round one and got his tax rate increase, but he's right that the debt ceiling debate will be another round. - Senator Isakson (R-GA): the big battle is yet to come during the debt ceiling debate.
[14:52] {dino} out wpi .65, +.12
[14:53] {dino} calling it a day. decent one, but this whipping around on news is messed up
01[14:53] {Threei}  yeah, we should get a rest from this till nerxt debt ceiling debate
[14:53] {scottie} dino
01[14:53] {Threei}  happy new year dino, see you wed!
[14:54] {dino} happy new year all, keep it safe
[14:54] {dptl} happy new year
[14:57] {dptl} out half hes
[14:58] {scottie} same here
01[14:58] {Threei}  good job guys
01[14:58] {Threei}  fixing a day trade by trade
[14:59] {dptl} yea..fixed a bit
[15:01] {scottie} +.21 tks dp
[15:01] {scottie} I am on the + side now
[15:01] {dptl} out
[15:01] {dptl} yw
[15:02] {dptl} gross + ,but net a bit down
[15:03] {scottie} same
[15:03] {dptl} but much better :)
[15:04] {dptl} will get them next year :)
[15:05] {scottie} ATI l .60 ?
01[15:06] {Threei}  hmmm
01[15:07] {Threei}  not sure on this one
[15:07] {scottie} ok tks
[15:08] {scottie} GM l .90 ?
01[15:08] {Threei}  I am not partial to longs anymore
[15:08] {scottie} ok
01[15:08] {Threei}  would be looking for short trades now
[15:11] {dptl} mpc .80 sh?
[15:11] {dptl} ah late
[15:12] {dptl} anf .80sh?
01[15:13] {Threei}  so so
01[15:14] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .25 break
01[15:14] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[15:16] {dptl} in
[15:17] {dptl} .24
[15:17] {scottie} .235
[15:24] {dptl} just die now lvs
[15:26] {dptl} half out
01[15:26] {Threei}  :)
01[15:26] {Threei}  back in black?
[15:26] {scottie} half out
[15:27] {dptl} almost about flat now :)
[15:28] {scottie} a bit on the plus side
[15:32] {scottie} more winners than loosers, and winners 50% bigger than loosers
[15:32] {scottie} I should do that more often :)
01[15:33] {Threei}  lol
[15:36] {dptl} stop to .21
[15:36] {scottie} good idea
[15:37] {dptl} just die lvs lol
[15:38] {scottie} where's Vad when we need him
[15:38] {dptl} ya that 2x4 would help
01[15:38] {Threei}  lol
01[15:41] {Threei}  there
01[15:41] {Threei}  happy now?
[15:42] {scottie} out +.18 tks Vad :)
[15:42] {dptl} out more...we did it we did it lol...ty Vad
01[15:42] {Threei}  :)
01[15:43] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/92H6D
[15:44] {dptl} nice :)where is the rest ?
01[15:45] {Threei}  on my FB page...
01[15:45] {Threei}  will post them on the bl.og when more are ready
01[15:45] {Threei}  OK guys, let's finish the year on a nice profitable note
01[15:46] {Threei}  thank you all, have a nice cozy celebration,
01[15:46] {Threei}  happy new year, and I'll see you on Wed!
[15:46] {scottie} see you next year
[15:46] {dptl} happy New Year all.....
[16:00] {cipher} happy New Year
01[16:00] {Threei}  you too cipher!
[16:03] {robbers} Happy New Year, see you'all on Wednesday.  Take Care.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

 Market Hangs on Cliff Talks


- The level of uncertainty surrounding the US Fiscal Cliff rose sharply this week after talks in Washington were broken off during the Christmas break. Hopes for a last minute "mini-deal" were stirred when the GOP leadership announced late in the week that the House would resume its session on Sunday evening and the White House scheduled an eleventh hour meeting with Congressional leaders at 3pmET on Friday. Data this week showed that the impending fiscal cliff may have had a bigger impact on consumer behavior than previously believed as the US Consumer Confidence reading came in below expectations and some early reports suggested that holiday retail business started to dry up in the week ahead of Christmas. At least one worry for the New Year was resolved as US federal mediators announced a tentative deal to avert a strike at 14 major ports along the east coast and Gulf of Mexico that had threatened to grind shipping to a halt on the eastern seaboard. Bond markets were unmoved by fiscal cliff concerns or the countervailing rumors of a mini fiscal deal in the works; Interest rate futures had one of their least active weeks of the year. Gold futures also moved sideways, unable to capitalize on concerns about going over the cliff and ending the week essentially flat at $1,657. Currency markets were fixated on the new Japanese government, which successfully weakened the Yen with verbal intervention ahead of more concrete actions to reflate the economy. As the VIX volatility index, used as a fear indicator, rose back above 20 for the first time since July, equity markets gave up last week's gains: the DJIA fell 1.9%, the Nasdaq lost 2%, and the S&P500 dropped 1.9%.

- The US consumer was a particularly hot topic heading towards the New Year. East coast snow storms and concerns surrounding the impending fiscal cliff weighed on many shoppers' minds. US Consumer Confidence took a hit in December, coming in almost 5 points below consensus, at a four month low of 65.1. The US Conference Board also noted that there was a subsequent risk that the December data could be downwardly revised due to smaller sample sets related to the holiday data collection period. Early holiday spending data from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse indicated that retail sales leading up to Christmas saw the smallest increase since 2008.

- Barnes and Noble shares traded higher on Friday after disclosing an $89M investment by publisher Pearson in BKS' NOOK unit, putting a $1.8B value on NOOK's operations. The announcement was undercut somewhat by the company noting that holiday sales trends were below prior projections, including in the NOOK segment.

- After being pummeled by a short seller report last week, shares of Herbalife managed to rebound nearly 10% this week. The firm put on an aggressive defense, hiring a law firm to help formulate a response to the comments from Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, who sent HLF shares down 40% last week after calling the company's multi-level-marketing business a "pyramid scheme."

- The greenback was softer against the European pairs as concerns about budget negotiations in Washington lingered. Those concerns proved to be a double edged sword as the FX market started to focus on the potential for a US sovereign rating downgrade in early 2013, providing a headwind for risk appetite and helping the USD come off its worst levels. Indeed Moody's sounded the alarm for politicians this week, stating that it expects an eventual resolution of the budget and debt limit issues, but "if there is no clear path on the fiscal outlook and debt trajectory in 2013, the US sovereign rating will be downgraded." Dealers noted that general book squaring in thin end of year liquidity played a role in dollar price action as well. There were also some murmurs of concern in Europe after the ECB failed to fully sterilize accrued SMP bond purchases for the first time since November 29th, 2011, the day before global central banks took coordinated action to boost liquidity in the global financial system.

- The Japanese yen was trading on the softer side after incoming PM Abe vowed legislation to revise Bank of Japan mandates if it did not adjust its inflation target to 2%. The new Japanese government maintained its rhetoric late in the week on seeking a weaker yen, though it acknowledged that there is a risk that the recent weakening in the currency could reverse. The Japan Chamber of Commerce head expressed his desire to see USD/JPY stabilize between the ¥85-90 level, but cautioned that importers would want any rise limited to the ¥110-120 range. USD/JPY hit fresh 28-month highs above ¥86.60 and the EUR/JPY cross hit 16-month highs of ¥114.70 in Tokyo on Friday following Japan inflation data that showed little change in expectations despite the cabinet change. The leading Tokyo core component for December was a tick worse than expected at -0.6% - the biggest y/y drop in 5 months - while the nationwide core print for November was back in the red after a flat reading in October. Some vague chatter circulated that Japan might impose a 90 floor in the pair, though analysts saw that as highly doubtful since the BOJ has been preaching to China about the virtues of a floating, market-driven rate. Late on Friday, Japan Economics Minister Amari said the cabinet will look to formalize a policy accord with the BOJ as soon as next month to solidify the prospects for a formal 2% inflation target and called the next central bank meeting on Jan 21-22 a "milestone."

- In China, the Shanghai Composite closed the week at a 6-month high above 2,230 on further signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. The China National Bureau of Statistics reported November industrial profits for large firms rising 22.8% y/y - well above the 20.5% growth seen in October and the 7.5% increase in September. Later in the week, the Chinese Finance Ministry cautioned that it saw higher risks due to rising bank loans going into 2013, and some chatter also emerging that the State Council could introduce limits on lending to local government finance vehicles (LGFVs).

- The GBP/USD was firmer and tested the 1.62 handle this week. Weekend press reports noted that the BOE could defy expectations and raise interest rate in 2013 on the back of a solid economic recovery and rising inflation. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Real currency was firmer as the central bank continued action to offset recent weakness, using both an auction of credit lines and swap contracts to guide the USD/BRL back below 2.05 after starting the week at around 2.08.


TradeTheNews

Dec 28 2012

Somewhat jerky day, with a few good trades and a few stops - one's mileage would vary depending on which executions one got or missed. Overall, this so far develops according to the scenario we described at http://goo.gl/hWqco



Session Time: Fri Dec 28 00:00:00 2012
01[08:50] {Threei}  Potential US sovereign downgrade concerns provide a headwind for risk appetite in session
01[08:51] {Threei}  Markets continue to focus on the developments related to the US budget talks. Later today, US President Obama is expected to meet with various Congressional leaders at around 3:00 p.m. EST. Also, US House Republicans are due to resume their legislative session on Sunday, Dec 30th.
[09:01] {dino} gm
01[09:02] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:05] {scottie} good morning
01[09:05] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:14] {thomcbell} hi guys - looks like i left right when things got interesting yesterday - 10am
[09:14] {thomcbell} est
01[09:14] {Threei}  tbell :)
01[09:14] {Threei}  yes, was a fine day almost to the end
[09:19] {thomcbell} i hope you got the 26.30 break on FB
[09:20] {thomcbell} you were on it like white on rice
[09:21] {dptl} good morning all
01[09:21] {Threei}  dp :)
01[09:21] {Threei}  don't remember... we shorted it but details escape me
01[09:21] {Threei}  my brain is still in tropics
[09:22] {dino} wheres nemo been?
01[09:22] {Threei}  hunting
[09:24] {cipher} gm
01[09:24] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:24] {dino} full day monday?
01[09:25] {Threei}  yes
01[09:25] {Threei}  Jan 1 is off
01[09:29] {Threei}  wow FB
[09:30] {dino} gap around 24.75
01[09:31] {Threei}  need a bounce to short
[09:31] {cipher} qcor l.79
01[09:31] {Threei}  desirably between .40 and .50
[09:32] {cipher} out qcor -.15
01[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {robbers} out fb, thanks
01[09:40] {Threei}  :)
[09:41] {dino} coh hl l .50
[09:44] {dptl} cov .80 sh?
01[09:44] {Threei}  *(US) DEC CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 51.6 V 51.0E
01[09:45] {Threei}  hl
[09:45] {dino} coh stop -.25
01[09:46] {Threei}  - Employment:45.9 v 55.2 prior (lowest since Nov 2009)
[09:48] {dptl} didt get cov
01[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  45 break
01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:53] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:53] {dptl} btu .40 sh?
[09:54] {cipher} gmcr l.57
01[09:54] {Threei}  did you take COV on a bounce?
01[09:54] {Threei}  worked perfectly
[09:54] {dptl} no
01[09:55] {Threei}  BTU, yes\
[09:55] {dptl} was looking at lvs at the moment
[09:55] {dino} ggc hl l .04 stop .94
[09:57] {cipher} out gmcr .70 +.13
[09:57] {dino} tol hl l .07
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .60 break hl
01[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:59] {cipher} crzo l .24
01[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) NOV PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.7% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: % V 12.2%E
01[10:00] {Threei}  8.9% V 12.2%E
[10:02] {dptl} met .40 short?
01[10:02] {Threei}  no
[10:02] {dptl} yeah
[10:05] {dptl} nav .15 long?
01[10:05] {Threei}  GLD 1:1
01[10:06] {Threei}  NAV yeah, but it's slow
[10:06] {cipher} crzo stopped -.11
[10:07] {cipher} gmcr s .82
[10:08] {cipher} cov .69
[10:09] {dino} stop ggc -.04
[10:09] {cipher} apkt l.12
[10:10] {Will49} Good morning
01[10:10] {Threei}  will!
[10:11] {Will49} just checking up on you guys
[10:11] {Will49} make sure you're following the rules :)
01[10:11] {Threei}  we are
01[10:11] {Threei}  1:2
[10:11] {robbers} out gld, thanks.
01[10:11] {Threei}  :)
01[10:12] {Threei}  wait
01[10:12] {Threei}  what rules?
[10:12] {Will49} any rules, as long as you follow them
[10:12] {robbers} Vad rules.
01[10:12] {Threei}  ah, OK
01[10:12] {Threei}  those we do
[10:12] {Will49} of course
01[10:12] {Threei}  like: alcohol in small doses is harmless in any quantities
[10:13] {Will49} :)
[10:13] {thomcbell} shameful Vad
[10:14] {dptl} how about now met short?
01[10:14] {Threei}  meh
01[10:15] {Threei}  robbers, were you able to see those two shots I posted?
[10:15] {robbers} I only saw one, the palm sunset.
01[10:16] {Threei}  not this one? http://goo.gl/uTju9
[10:16] {cipher} crzo l .00
[10:16] {robbers} Nope, here:  http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=355953811170234&set=a.107450996020518.10603.100002668551123&type=1
[10:16] {thomcbell} fb looks like a 25.47 break if holding 25.37
01[10:17] {Threei}  strange... why does it show you one and not another
01[10:17] {Threei}  I'd prefer .50 asd a trigger, tbell
01[10:18] {Threei}  GLD 1:3, over
01[10:19] {Threei}  FB 1:1
01[10:19] {Threei}  quite amazing how almost every trade works this holiday
01[10:22] {Threei}  things quieted down a bit
01[10:22] {Threei}  although I believe we are still to see fireworks today
[10:23] {Will49} sorry, that was me
01[10:23] {Threei}  lol
[10:23] {Will49} should have stayed in bed
01[10:23] {Threei}  so, for now, let me share major after-holiday shock
01[10:23] {Threei}  returing home, stepping on a scale, can't believe my eyes - 8 lbs gain
01[10:24] {Threei}  2 days later, everything's back to norm
01[10:24] {Threei}  huh?
[10:24] {Will49} thought you were referring to our earthquake
01[10:24] {Threei}  nah, didn't notice it
[10:24] {Will49} shook us pretty good in Victoria
01[10:25] {Threei}  many says that... I guess I am less sensitive :)
[10:25] {Will49} was only 3.3
01[10:25] {Threei}  3.9
01[10:25] {Threei}  but close
[10:25] {Will49} can't imagine what a 7.0 would be like
01[10:25] {Threei}  13 km from Sidney
[10:25] {robbers} Someone had a fat finger on the scale at 8 lbs over.
01[10:25] {Threei}  lol, it's digital scale
[10:26] {dptl} vz 43 short?
01[10:26] {Threei}  yes
01[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .20 break hl
[10:28] {scottie} not in short list ?
01[10:28] {Threei}  yeah... what the deuce
[10:29] {dino} last try ggc hl l .05
[10:29] {cipher} out apkt .24 +.12
[10:30] {thomcbell} fb 1:2
01[10:30] {Threei}  turns out, sudden switch to hot weather causes high water retention
[10:30] {thomcbell} stop to 25.60
01[10:30] {Threei}  which is not real weight gain of course... but I felt like I retained Superior Lake
[10:31] {Will49} got some camel dna Vad?
01[10:31] {Threei}  I guess
[10:32] {cipher} scss l .21
[10:32] {thomcbell} FB hit 1:3 and out
01[10:32] {Threei}  very nice one
[10:32] {Will49} i see you're still up to your old tricks tbell
01[10:33] {Threei}  almost time to short it
[10:33] {dptl} stopped vz
[10:33] {thomcbell} agree totally - now it seems sellers in control - and they push a bit too hard and you have these nasty snapback rallys
[10:35] {cipher} crzo stopped -.05
[10:36] {dino} gap around .70
01[10:37] {Threei}  good read: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324660404578199363527441002.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
01[10:38] {Threei}  In this zero-sum universe there is only so much happiness. The idea is that if we wipe the smile off the faces of people with prosperous businesses and successful careers, that will make the rest of us grin.
[10:39] {cipher} scss stopped -.06
[10:40] {dino} politics f envy, "you got it, i want it"
[10:40] {dino} "cannot figure out how to get it, so i (politician) will destroy it"
01[10:41] {Threei}  yup
[10:41] {dino} atlas shrugged. we are living it
[10:42] {Will49} amen
01[10:42] {Threei}  can't believe I am living it second time
[10:42] {Will49} who is Vadym Galt
[10:42] {thomcbell} ha
01[10:42] {Threei}  (US) Obama said to be offering a scaled back budget package today with meeting with Congressional leaders; as had been speculated yesterday
[10:44] {dptl} vlo .50 long?
01[10:45] {Threei}  nah
01[10:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:45] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:46] {dptl} in
01[10:49] {Threei}  1;1
[10:49] {dptl} out half ty
[10:50] {robbers} out fb, nice call.
01[10:50] {Threei}  :)
01[11:00] {Threei}  - Follow up: Short term deal could be a 60-90 day deal - CNBC's Harwood
[11:00] {dino} so nothing solved as usual
[11:02] {dino} out ggc .28, +.23
[11:02] {robbers} wtg, dino.
[11:03] {dino} ty
01[11:04] {Threei}  they don't want to solve anything dino
01[11:05] {Threei}  it becomes more and more clear to me that what I was considering a conspiracy theory a few short years ago is actual;ly true:
01[11:05] {Threei}  these folks running the show now actually want America weaker,
01[11:05] {Threei}  they sincerely think it will be better for the world as they see it
[11:06] {dino} the democrats, yes
01[11:06] {Threei}  when told that this or that measure will harm US economy, they nod and say duh
[11:07] {dino} they have been dumbing down the last few generations for dependency
01[11:07] {Threei}  there is only one real question remained to be answered, IMO
[11:08] {dino} pxd drop
01[11:08] {Threei}  whether this change reached the point of no return and that'ds where US headed, or it's a fluke that will be corrected in the next cycle
[11:09] {dino} sincerely hoping for correction. but when 48% receives govt assistance, its a huge boat to turn
[11:09] {scottie} RIMM s .85 ?
01[11:09] {Threei}  yes RIMM
[11:10] {dptl} out more fb
[11:10] {scottie} fb +.18 tks Vad
01[11:11] {Threei}  1:2
[11:11] {dptl} stop to .51 for last
[11:11] {dino} gj
01[11:11] {Threei}  welcome sir
01[11:12] {Threei}  sirs
01[11:14] {Threei}  I am torn on that dino... my personal sense is that it's permanent condition and no turn is possible anymore. But I realize that being in the thick of events and being emotionally invested clouds our judgement... so maybe there is a chance for a development we hope for
[11:19] {dino} coh hl l .20
[11:27] {scottie} in rimm .84
[11:28] {scottie} small
[11:40] {dino} suss?
01[11:40] {Threei}  don't see anything there
[11:43] {dptl} anf .65 short?
01[11:43] {Threei}  not sure... a bit narrrow
[11:43] {dptl} ok
[11:45] {dptl} hes .50 sh?
[11:45] {dino} suss hl l .16 ave
01[11:47] {Threei}  HES, I think so
[11:53] {dptl} in hes
[11:55] {dino} took forever, but out tol .31, +.24
01[11:56] {Threei}  wtg
[11:56] {dino} thx
[12:05] {dino} out coh while stepped away, out .48, +.28
01[12:06] {Threei}  lol
[12:07] {Will49} See ya all in Feb. Off to Maui.. Happy New Year and good trading :)
[12:08] {scottie} bye Will
[12:08] {dptl} have fun Will :)
[12:08] {Will49} cheers guys
[12:10] {dino} have fun will
01[12:10] {Threei}  have a great trip will
01[12:15] {Threei}  (US) Senators Corker (R-TN) and Alexander (R-TN) hold news conference; recommends reforms to medicare in exchange for debt ceiling concessions- Notes it is clear that a budget deal will not be achieved by Dec 31
[12:18] {dptl} stopped hes
01[12:18] {Threei}  things float randomly
[12:18] {scottie} was with you on that one dp :(
[12:19] {dino} in capitulation/euphoric mode
[12:32] {dptl} jcp .50 long?
01[12:32] {Threei}  yuck
[12:33] {dptl} lol that bad
01[12:33] {Threei}  well :)
01[12:33] {Threei}  not only it's a breakout suring lunch.Friday lull,
01[12:33] {Threei}  but it's whole day's range is 25 cents
[12:35] {dptl} ye...thats me pushing again i think...seeing things
01[12:44] {Threei}  might be a bounce scalp from under .35 though
[12:45] {dptl} jcp?
01[12:45] {Threei}  yes
[12:47] {dptl} with .30 stop?
01[12:47] {Threei}  yes
[12:48] {dptl} .35 break?
01[12:48] {Threei}  yup
[12:50] {dptl} in
[12:54] {dptl} stopped
01[13:06] {Threei}  rinse
[13:07] {dptl} yeah
01[13:12] {Threei}  Markets cautious ahead of last ditch fiscal cliff talks
01[13:12] {Threei}  - Stocks traded lower on continued worries about the US going over the fiscal cliff despite an eleventh hour effort to reach a short term compromise deal in Washington. Congressional leaders are headed to the White House at 3pmET today to hear the President's pitch for a short term "scaled down" deal that would reportedly extend for 60-90 days the Bush tax cuts for all but the wealthiest earners ($400K+), and delay or replace most of the sequester automatic cuts, as well as dealing with pressing AMT tax and unemployment insurance issues. Its unclear yet if Congressional leaders will go along with this proposal to "kick the can" one more time, and no post meeting press conferences have been scheduled yet.
[13:23] {dino} out suss -.01
[13:28] {dino} bud drop
[13:33] {dino} hl l .69
01[13:35] {Threei}  scottie... if RIMM works in the end, it will be a record-long hold, eh?
[13:35] {dptl} hes .45 sh?
01[13:36] {Threei}  frikin JCP
01[13:36] {Threei}  worked like charm
01[13:36] {Threei}  HES, I think so
[13:37] {scottie} rimm got tired of holding iot, out -.06
[13:37] {scottie} it
01[13:39] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:39] {Threei}  it's not like there was something better around :)
[13:41] {dino} just imagine how slow monday will be
01[13:41] {Threei}  or, if there is no agreement, it can be quite furious
01[13:41] {Threei}  with all the rush to sell
01[13:42] {Threei}  one never knows :)
[13:46] {dptl} what if i get .50 break sh hes agresive?
[13:48] {dptl} late
01[13:48] {Threei}  hard to tell
[13:49] {dptl} .45 break still valid i think....held .55 on that pullback
[13:56] {scottie} in hes .44
[13:56] {dptl} .43
01[13:56] {Threei}  RIMM 1:1
[13:57] {scottie} now I regret
[14:04] {dino} i understand. lol
[14:05] {dptl} you better work hes
[14:16] {dino} out bud .78, +.09
[14:20] {scottie} gj dino
[14:21] {dino} ty, but of course it goes up now
[14:21] {scottie} lol
[14:28] {scottie} stop .51 ?
01[14:28] {Threei}  certainly
[14:40] {scottie} held .45 a few times, new stop there?
01[14:42] {Threei}  kind of personal decision
[14:42] {scottie} ok, will leave it at .51
[14:47] {dptl} sigh....out
[14:47] {scottie} right
[14:48] {dptl} almost an hour
[14:52] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[14:57] {dptl} wlp short?
01[14:58] {Threei}  i think so
[14:58] {dptl} .15?
01[14:59] {Threei}  yeah
01[15:15] {Threei}  Invalidated
[15:17] {dptl} yeah...last hope to fix day a bit  disapered :)
[15:19] {dptl} you think monday will be as slow?
01[15:19] {Threei}  who knows... depends on what they agree or not agree today
[15:20] {dptl} i see
01[15:20] {Threei}  you ignore most of my calls, don't you? I don't see how this day was to be "fixed"
[15:20] {dptl} well i only got fb
[15:21] {dptl} and had other 3 stops
[15:22] {dptl} actualy 4 stops..and fb winner
[15:22] {scottie} same here dp
[15:23] {scottie} including rimm which I shouldn't have exited too soon
[15:24] {dptl} and didt take gld ..i usually dont trade it too expensive for me
[15:26] {dptl} so i only missed first fb trade in the morning but got second one.....
[15:26] {dino} 4 wins and 4 stops here today, but wins ave was much greater than stops. in black, but a bit light
[15:27] {dptl} just slow and wierd day   one of thouse....
[15:29] {dino} i'll 2nd that
01[15:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  26 break
01[15:34] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[15:37] {dptl} in
[15:37] {dptl} .97
01[15:37] {Threei}  (US) PResident Obama said to not be offering anything new at the meeting- financial press
[15:38] {scottie} couldn't get in
01[15:38] {Threei}  1:1
[15:39] {dino} fb nice call
[15:39] {dptl} half out ty
[15:44] {dino} obummer strikes again
01[15:44] {Threei}  - Obama said to be asking leaders what measures they support in lieu of new plan offer; has requested counteroffers from those in the meeting assuming they cannot support his plan from last week - Obama will ask for an up or down vote in Congress on his prior plan assuming no realistic counteroffers are proposed
01[15:45] {Threei}  political theater
[15:45] {dino} sure is. high school he said she said b.s.
[15:49] {dino} dji -3% in five days
01[15:49] {Threei}  I am puzzled by this "I got elected on this, so you all bend over" - as if they were not elcted on opposite platfolrm, and their voters are somehow lesser beings than his are
[15:50] {dino} puzzled here too, but then again, he thinks he's god
01[15:53] {Threei}  I a pretty sure they'll allow cliff to happen
[15:54] {dino} sure, with some csort of retro-active fix 30 days from now
01[15:55] {Threei}  yes, and fix limited to tax cut for those under 250K
01[15:55] {Threei}  so obama gets all he wanted, and no spending cuts
[15:55] {dino} not so sure there. once jan 1st hits, imo republicans have nothing to lose, so they stay tough
01[15:56] {Threei}  well, they can't vote down tax cut
01[15:56] {Threei}  that would mean being wiped from political map for the next 2000 years
[15:56] {dino} it will be $400k or $500k imo
[15:57] {dino} and no 3i, just means some may be thrown out. the party will survive fine. contrary to news it was a very close election
01[15:57] {Threei}  you know I want you to be right :)
[15:58] {dino} spending is the problem and most americans agree to that
[15:58] {dptl} out rest fb ty
01[15:58] {Threei}  yw
[15:58] {dino} needs to go back to 18% historical, from obummers 24%
01[15:58] {Threei}  true... but they don't want "their" slice of spending to be cut
[15:59] {scottie} gn all see you monday
01[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {dino} gn
01[15:59] {Threei}  look at this last spoet down
01[15:59] {Threei}  step
01[15:59] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:59] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
01[15:59] {Threei}  have a good weekend, see you Monday
[15:59] {dptl} gn all
[15:59] {robbers} Over and out.



Thursday, December 27, 2012

Dec 27 2012

With main room server outage we used reserve one for the first couple hours, so log is garbled a little at the beginning. Very nice day though, as most of the plays worked like charm even though slowly.



scottie: anybody home ?
Threei: yes
Threei: the rest apparently don't read e-mail
scottie: hi
Threei: and server decided to take a vacation
scottie: connected a couple of minutes before receiving mail, when I couldn't connect on mirc
scottie: just received email 1 minute ago
Threei: nope.., people do not read e-mail
Threei: anyway, seems to me selling is about to resume after morning jumps
thomcbell: yo
Threei: hey tbell
Threei: short FB .55 break
Threei: if holds .65
Threei: 1:1
Threei: Short FCX .95 break
Threei: If holds .05
scottie: out fb .44 tks Vad
Threei:
Threei: FB 1:2
Threei: out
Threei: FCX 1:1
thomcbell: rimm coming under a bit of pressure from the open
(09:40) scottie: fcx out tks
(09:42) Threei: yw
(09:42) Threei: There... dp woke up after missing two winning trades
(09:42) dptl: good morning
(09:45) Threei: Short FB .65 break
(09:45) Threei: change to .70
(09:46) Threei: if holds .75
(09:47) Threei: invalidated
(09:48) Threei: although getting overextended
(09:48) Threei: .75 break
(09:48) Threei: if holds .80
(09:52) Threei: half out .66
(09:54) Threei: new home sales and consumer confidence numbers at 10
(09:55) dptl: vrx .95 short?
(09:56) Threei: chart wise yes but remember numbers in 4 min
(09:56) dptl: ah ok ty
(09:59) Threei: both are bad
(10:00) Threei: DEC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 65.1 V 70.0E
(10:00) Threei: *(US) NOV NEW HOME SALES: 377K V 380KE- Prior revised lower from 368K to 361K
(10:01) Threei: if grabbed your VRX, it worked too
(10:02) cc_8: Alliance Healthcare Services (NYSE: AIQ) surged 422.88% to $6.80 at 9:45 am. Alliance Healthcare Services' trailing-twelve-month revenue is $478.08 mi
(10:02) cc_8: Alliance Healthcare Services (NYSE: AIQ) surged 422.88% to $6.80 at 9:45 am.
(10:02) dptl: lrcx .long?
(10:03) Threei: nah
(10:03) cc_8: Coastal Contacts (NASDAQ: COA) shares dipped 20.56% to $5.95 at 9:54 am
(10:04) Threei: 1/4 more out FB
(10:05) Threei: nailed reversal to the T
(10:05) Threei: (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): It is looking like the US will go over the fiscal cliff and rates will go up starting Jan 1 unless Congress acts
(10:07) dptl: clf .45 short?
(10:07) cc_8: Toyota agreed to pay about $1.1 billion to install new safety equipment and reimburse owners of up to 16 million cars to settle a U.S. class-action su
(10:08) Threei: CLF, yeah
(10:08) Threei: my fiscal cliff prognosis: http://goo.gl/hWqco
(10:09) Threei: out FB in full
(10:09) scottie: was away missed FB, great call Vad
(10:09) Threei: 28 cents for 7 cents riskj
(10:09) Threei: 3 for 3
(10:10) Threei: and most of the room is not reading e-mail about reserve server, lol
(10:10) dptl: in clf
(10:11) cc_8: Among the companies expected to see active trading in the U.S. stock market Thursday are BCD Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd., Marvell Technology Grou
(10:11) cc_8: ompanies expected to see active trading in the U.S. stock market Thursday are BCD Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd., Marvell Technology Group Inc. and
(10:14) dptl: stopped clf
(10:15) thomcbell has left.
(10:18) dptl: rinsed
(10:20) Threei: no kidding
(10:21) dptl: sigh
(10:22) Threei: selling with vengeance
(10:29) dptl: vlo .45 long?
(10:29) Threei: Long SLW .65 break
(10:29) Threei: if holds .55
(10:30) Threei: VLO looks right
(10:31) dptl: in
(10:34) Threei: 1:1 VLO
(10:35) dptl: out
(10:36) scottie: gj dp
(10:37) scottie: stop .59+ Vad ?
(10:37) dptl: ty but was a bit late with exit only got 6c
(10:37) Threei: yup
(10:41) Threei: SLW 1:1
(10:41) scottie: out half, stop .64
(10:41) dptl: low .80 long?
(10:42) scottie: you didn't loose your touch Vad
(10:42) Threei:
(10:42) Threei: not sure LOW
(10:43) scottie: stop .69 ?
(10:44) Threei: yup
(10:45) Threei: 1:2, out
(10:45) scottie: +.18 tks Vad
(10:45) Threei: yw
(10:52) scottie: PPL s .40 ?
(10:54) Threei: I think so
(10:57) scottie: in .39 stop .46
(10:57) dptl: in ppl .46 stop
(10:57) dptl:
(11:02) Threei: meh
(11:02) dptl: stoped
(11:02) scottie: out
(11:08) dptl: jcp .95 sh?
(11:08) Threei: yeah
(11:09) scottie: not in short list
(11:09) dptl: ye
(11:17) dptl: oh well
(11:17) scottie: good call dp, too bad
(11:18) Threei: yeah
(11:19) scottie: KRFT s .10 ?
(11:21) Threei: half lot
(11:27) scottie: no
(11:27) dptl: wlp .30 long?
(11:31) Threei: not sure
(11:31) dptl: in
(11:34) Threei: main server shpws signs of life
(11:35) Threei: try to connect guys
(11:35) scottie: ok I'm connected
(11:35) Threei: yup




Session Start: Thu Dec 27 11:34:38 2012

[11:35] {scottie} .
01[11:36] {Threei}  first good point made here today
[11:36] {scottie} :)
[11:37] {dptl} here
01[11:38] {Threei}  OK... let's see if anyone else wakes up :)
[11:41] {scottie} good call on wlp dp
01[11:42] {Threei}  yeah, another one
[11:42] {scottie} looks like you don't need Vad anymore :)
01[11:42] {Threei}  no one does... story of my life
[11:42] {scottie} lol
[11:43] {dptl} half out
[11:44] {dptl} ty...still have some issues Scottie
01[11:47] {Threei}  robbers... no checking your e-mails, eh?
[11:47] {robbers} Right, should I?
01[11:48] {Threei}  well... considering that we sent a reserve room address for the morning while main server was down... :)
[11:48] {robbers} OK, will check.
01[11:48] {Threei}  and you missed quite a few good plays... :(
[11:49] {scottie} away for one hour
01[11:49] {Threei}  ok... we'll be here
01[11:50] {Threei} Short Setup: WFC  .85 break
01[11:50] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[11:57] {dptl} anf .20 short?
01[11:57] {Threei}  tough one
01[11:57] {Threei}  try smaller shares
01[11:58] {Threei}  can be jumpy
[11:58] {dptl} ok ty
[11:59] {robbers} How was your trip, Vad?
01[12:00] {Threei}  absolutely fantastic
[12:00] {robbers} I bet.
[12:00] {robbers} And am expecting a full file of photos.
01[12:00] {Threei}  saw couple first photos pn my facebook?
01[12:00] {Threei}  oh yes, there will be plenty
01[12:01] {Threei}  strongest impressions are night snorkeling with manta rays and active volcano
01[12:01] {Threei}  both are must on the bucket list
[12:01] {dptl} in wfc
[12:01] {robbers} I see you wife didn't push you into the volcano, if you remember your joke about it.
01[12:02] {Threei}  well, she canged her mind seeing how treacherous driving there was
[12:02] {robbers} LOL.
01[12:02] {Threei}  and thinking I might still be useful
[12:02] {robbers} I once did night scuba diving in California, it was amazing, but can't imagine with manta rays, what a great experience.
01[12:03] {Threei}  it's out of this worlds
[12:03] {robbers} Literally.
01[12:03] {Threei}  15 ft-big swimming machine within inches from you
[12:04] {robbers} I've seen where divers ride them.
01[12:04] {Threei}  ANF works
01[12:04] {Threei}  you see first two photos I spoted, robbers?
[12:04] {dptl} i took wfc instead :)
01[12:04] {Threei}  posted
[12:05] {robbers} Give me the better of the two links again.....
01[12:05] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/Sx2nM and http://goo.gl/uTju9
01[12:06] {Threei}  cipher... not reading your e-mails either :)
[12:06] {cipher} didn't get any
01[12:07] {Threei}  check junk box?
[12:07] {cipher} yes
01[12:07] {Threei}  huh
[12:07] {dptl} stop to above .90 wfc?
01[12:07] {Threei}  yes
01[12:07] {Threei}  I see it being sent to you
01[12:08] {Threei}  about reserve room
[12:08] {robbers} Vad, when will you post more photos, over the weekend?
01[12:08] {Threei}  as soon as I get to work on them... hopefully
[12:09] {robbers} Got to run out to meet a friend.  These crazy friends and family don't understand that trading is the priority.
01[12:09] {Threei}  lol
01[12:09] {Threei}  when I post on my blog, I usually send and e-mail notification to those who wznt to follow
[12:09] {dptl} half out wfc ty
01[12:09] {Threei}  if you want, I can add your e-mail to list
01[12:09] {Threei}  1:1 WFC
[12:09] {robbers} Yeah, robbyisa@yahoo.com
01[12:09] {Threei}  I will
[12:10] {robbers} I'll try to make it back before closing, in the meantime, happy trading, good call on WFC.
[12:10] {robbers} TC (take care)
[12:21] {dptl} die wfc already
01[12:21] {Threei}  {WFC} you no like me... :(
[12:21] {dptl} lol
[12:22] {dptl} i do ..but just die now
[12:30] {dptl} now is a good time wfc
01[12:31] {Threei}  it's going to
[12:37] {dptl} :)
[12:37] {dptl} stop to .76
[12:40] {dptl} out
[12:44] {dino} .
01[12:45] {Threei}  dino...
01[12:45] {Threei}  no rerading your e-mails either?? :)
[12:46] {dino} cannot get into my email for some reason, hotmail having trouble
01[12:46] {Threei}  oh... crap :(
01[12:47] {Threei}  bookmark reserve server to check if main is down
[12:47] {dino} must be from the storm. 10" snow last night
[12:47] {dptl} clf .60 short?
01[12:47] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/reserve.html
01[12:47] {Threei}  no CLF, not liking it
[12:47] {dptl} ok
01[12:47] {Threei}  we had quite a good day, too bad :(
[12:48] {dino} glad to hear
[12:49] {dptl} cnx 32 long?
01[12:52] {Threei}  can't tell
[12:54] {dptl} i'll take a little break... start seeing things again... lol
01[13:07] {Threei}  Volume remains light in the US session after European markets traded modestly higher after returning from their holiday break. US stocks started the day flat until the latest pessimistic Fiscal Cliff comments out of Washington knocked stocks lower by 0.5% in the late morning. From the Senate floor, Majority leader Reid suggested that time would likely not allow for any resolution to the cliff before tax rates rise in the New Year. This result was expected by many analysts as it would allow Congress to technically 'cut' tax rates early next year as opposed to preemptively raising the highest brackets before the Fiscal Cliff arrives. Following Reid's comments the VIX volatility index rose above 20 for the first time since July.
[13:12] {cipher} cymi l .81
[13:22] {dptl} kss .05 short?
01[13:24] {Threei}  I think so
[13:25] {cc_8} The DJIA has slipped through another technical threshold, as it’s now below its 200-day moving average intraday, currently around 13015, for the first time since Dec 5.
[13:25] {cc_8} Yes, it’s a light-volume day; but that doesn’t mean the losses aren’t real. The S&P 500 is off 13 points at 1407, and the Nasdaq Comp is down 29 at 2962.
01[13:30] {Threei}  but, does it mean our profits are real too?
[13:32] {dptl} clf .60 sh?
01[13:33] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:33] {Threei}  what canged since last time I didn't like it? :)
01[13:34] {Threei}  changed
[13:36] {dptl} how about cnx .90 short?
01[13:36] {Threei}  hl
[13:37] {dptl} in .89
01[13:50] {Threei}  aaaalmost there
[13:52] {scottie} half out cnx tks dp
01[13:52] {Threei}  1:1
[13:53] {dptl} half of the hl is out
[13:53] {dptl} ty yw
[13:53] {scottie} kepping 100 shares in
[13:53] {cipher} lulu lufk l.13
[13:53] {scottie} keeping
[13:54] {dptl} same here
[13:55] {cipher} out lufk .45 +.32
[13:56] {dptl} nice
01[14:00] {Threei}  cipher doesn't lose shape even during holiday feast eh
[14:03] {scottie} cnx stop to .86 ?
01[14:03] {Threei}  yep
[14:05] {dptl} biding .51 :)
[14:06] {cipher} out cymi .96  +.15
[14:15] {scottie} teva s .80 ?
01[14:16] {Threei}  no
01[14:16] {Threei}  I'd stay away from this one
[14:16] {scottie} ok
[14:17] {scottie} why?
01[14:17] {Threei}  way too narrow
[14:17] {scottie} tks
01[14:17] {Threei}  easy to get whopsawed
01[14:17] {Threei}  o=i
[14:23] {dino} mmd drop
01[14:32] {Threei}  in case you want another load pf crap from high above:
01[14:32] {Threei}  (US) House Democratic Whip Hoyer: House needs to return to session to reach a compromise on fiscal cliff- Spoke with House Majority leader Cantor today and asked him to recall House members back into session. Cantor said that Republicans would discuss whether to recall members during a caucus conference call to be held today. - Democrats know that they need to compromise, won't get everything we want. Quickest thing to do now would be to pass the Senate bill that extends the tax cuts for the middle class. - Spoke to the White House and know that they are "considering options." }- We should act on the debt limit in a bipartisan fashion long before the debt limit is reached in February.
[14:32] {dptl} fslr .65 sh?
01[14:33] {Threei}  hmmm
01[14:33] {Threei}  :)
[14:33] {dptl} too late
01[14:33] {Threei}  it teleported
01[14:34] {Threei}  from .68 to .61 with nothing inbetween
[14:37] {cipher} bidu s .31
[14:38] {dptl} kss long here?
[14:39] {dptl} .31?
01[14:39] {Threei}  no read
[14:39] {dptl} ok
[14:39] {scottie} stop cnx to .82
[14:44] {cipher} cov bidu .40
[14:44] {scottie} out cnx .83
01[14:44] {Threei}  bout of happiness
01[14:45] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps plans a 18:30ET session for Dec 30 -
[14:48] {dino} ggc hl l .50
[14:48] {dino} out ggc .79, +.29
[14:48] {dino} out tol from earlier, +.32
01[14:48] {Threei}  that was quick
[14:49] {dino} coh hl l .50
[14:49] {dino} ggc? yeah, its pulp
[14:51] {dino} coh to flat
[14:52] {dino} coh stop flat
[14:52] {scottie} TEVA tks {Vad
[14:53] {dptl} vlo .50 long? if holds .45
01[14:53] {Threei}  :)
01[14:54] {Threei}  hard to tell VLO
01[14:54] {Threei}  see, this spike in the market is based solwely on that headline
[14:55] {dptl} i see
[14:56] {cipher} I just got the email about reserve room 5 min ago
01[14:56] {Threei}  wow... your e-mail provider is on vacation!
[14:56] {scottie} delivered by pony express
01[14:56] {Threei}  gives new meaning to snail mail
01[14:57] {Threei}  just bookmark the address guys
[14:57] {dptl} dg .06 long?
01[14:57] {Threei}  something happens, ypu know it's a place to check
01[14:57] {Threei}  I'd prefer entry on pullback, closer to .95
[14:58] {dino} coh rinsed darn
[14:58] {dptl} ok
[15:04] {dptl} met .60 long?
[15:05] {dino} c hl l .03
01[15:06] {Threei}  I can't tell with these longs
01[15:06] {Threei}  they all move on the same thing
01[15:06] {Threei}  not really on chart pattern
01[15:06] {Threei}  only on that headline
[15:06] {dptl} i see
01[15:07] {Threei}  impossible to tell whether it has sustainable effect or it will be destroyed next minute
[15:15] {dino} rkus spike
[15:16] {dptl} kss? .50l ?
[15:17] {dptl} or its the same?
01[15:18] {Threei}  .50?
[15:18] {dptl} ye was looking 42.50 break
01[15:21] {Threei}  another spike
[15:27] {dino} out c .13, +.10
[15:29] {dino} calling it a day. gn all
01[15:29] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:30] {dptl} gn see ya tomorrow all
01[15:33] {Threei}  (US) Rep Harris (R-MD): House will be recovened for Sunday in order to vote on anything sent over from the Senate - CNBC- Note: This confirms earlier reports about the House recovening
01[15:51] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you, have a good evening
01[15:51] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:51] {scottie} gn all



Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Dec 26 2012

Easing back into trading after blissful week in tropical paradise... not bad for the first day with a few nice wins, before sleep took over.


Session Start: Wed Dec 26 03:13:50 2012

[09:03] gm
01[09:03]  dino!
[09:03] gm 3i, i trust yor trip went well
01[09:03]  fantastic
01[09:04]  incredible place
[09:04] glad too hear
01[09:04]  how are things here?
[09:05] very good week for me last week. some nice movers
01[09:05]  cool :)
[09:09] good morning
01[09:09]  scottie :)
[09:09] still alive ?
01[09:09]  can you imagine
01[09:15]  (US) Obama Administration mulling an expansion of mortgage-refinance program to include loans not held by Fannie and Freddie - financial press- The GSE's back about half of the 10.8M underwater mortgages in the US. Those not backed by Fannie and Freddie are not currently qualified for the HAMP program.
01[09:15]  so... nemo failed us, huh?
01[09:15]  world never ended
01[09:18]  what's going on with HLF
01[09:23]  is everybody on vacation still?
[09:24] hlf shorts having fun w/. same w/ nus
[09:24] big well known short on cnbc, hlf ponzi
[09:25] gotta hop for 30-45 min.
01[09:25]  ok... scottie, do we stay or go back to bed :)
[09:26] where's everyone
01[09:26]  asking me? I just got here
[09:27] I don't mind skipping the day if you prefer
01[09:28]  well, I got home just 5 hours ago, lol
01[09:28]  no sleep yet
[09:28] gm
01[09:28]  cipher :)
[09:28] See you tomoorrow then
[09:28] :)
01[09:28]  let's see if first 30 min bring something
01[09:29]  but I am not sure I can be trusted with those buttons yet :)
01[09:31] Short Setup: FB  .90 break hl
01[09:33]  Invalidated  
[09:34] amgn l.04
01[09:34] Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break hl
01[09:35]  If holds  .80 
[09:38] out amgn -.12
01[09:42]  slooooow
[09:44] EBAY L .25
[09:45] out .40
01[09:45]  :)
[09:47] hain l.39
01[09:48]  1:1
[09:49] half out
[09:49] good morning all
01[09:49]  hey dp
[09:49] dp
[09:50] aloha....lol...how was the trip
01[09:50]  beyond belief
01[09:51]  snorkeling with manta rays is experience of a lifetime
01[09:51]  and volcano... discovered some incredible places
[09:51] can't wait to see pictures :)
[09:52] ZUMZ L .17
[09:54] out 1/2 hain .64 +.25
01[09:55]  wtg
[09:55] ty
[09:56] safm l .17
01[09:59]  *(US) DEC RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 5 V +7.0E
[10:00] PETM L .02
[10:01] .
[10:02] out  ZUMZ .36 +.19
[10:06] med hl l .97
01[10:06] Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[10:08]  change to .05 break
[10:09] in
[10:09] stop under 27
[10:10] life l .29
[10:12] out .40
[10:14] logm l.94
01[10:14]  no go FB
[10:14] stopped fb
[10:16] out rest of fcx .97 have to go for an hour or two
01[10:16]  (US) Aide to republican party indicates that House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) and President Obama have not spoken about the fiscal cliff issues during the holiday period or this week - financial press
01[10:16] Short Setup: LVS  .10 break
01[10:17]  If holds  .20 
[10:17] out 1/2 petm .23 +.21
[10:19] in lvs
[10:20] med stop
[10:22] out rest petm .19 +.17
[10:22] hi all
[10:22] sfly l .15
01[10:23]  tbell :)
[10:23] Vad!!!!
[10:23] how was it?
01[10:23]  beyond belief
[10:23] terrific
01[10:24]  just started downloading photos to the comp
[10:24] sfly stopped -.05
01[10:26]  14 GB
[10:28] can we move lvs stop to .16?
01[10:28]  I would
[10:29] 2c to 1:1 didt make it
[10:31] SFLY L .20
[10:38] med hl l .03
[10:38] out half lvs ty
01[10:39]  :)
[10:50] all out here ty .96
01[10:50]  yw
[10:51] sfly stopped -.11
[10:51] lulu l .91
[10:56] out lulu .39 +.48
[10:57] nice
[10:59] ibm l .06
01[11:02]  LVS 1:3
01[11:02]  out
[11:04] out IBM -.15
[11:05] hes short?
01[11:06]  i think so
[11:06] ah...missed
[11:08] vlo .80 short?
01[11:08]  yup
[11:09] in
[11:11] FOSL L. 70
[11:13] UNFI l.15
[11:14] elli hl l .45
[11:17] qcor drop
[11:17] qcor l .56
[11:18] out .75
01[11:21]  etg
[11:21] short setup aig 35 break if holding 35.10
01[11:22]  looks tempting
[11:23] although - it has been acting rather nicely up until the last 40 minutes or so - traded very nicely on monday
01[11:25]  guys, I think I need a few more hours of sleep... looks like 4 is not enough
01[11:25]  got a few nice ones in the morning, need to get some rest to continue tomorrow
01[11:26]  have a nice rest of the day, I'll see you in the morning
[11:26] see ya Vad :)
[11:26] cya vad
[11:26] see you tomorrow VAd :)
[11:28] see you tomorrow Vad
[11:30] jwn hl l .05
[11:32] out elli .69, +.24
[11:34] out med .38, +.35
[11:47] tol hl l .31
[11:52] tna l .92
[11:52] out 1/2 .12 +.20
[11:55] out in full .21+.29
[11:59] tna l.07
[12:00] out .19
[12:01] out 1/2 fosl .19 +.49
[12:08] gj
[12:08] retail smackdown day
[12:11] TNA L 03
[12:13] out .11
[12:17] out jwn .40, +.35
[12:24] out remainder fosl +.05
[12:31] lol cipher, you & i again
[12:33] :)
[12:36] tol to b/e
[12:38] out tol +.04
[12:52] orly hl l .75
[13:21] orly out .89, +.14
[13:37] zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[13:44] coh hl l .25
[13:45] l coh .22
[14:00] out some
[14:01] out coh .49, +.24
[14:02] RIMM - very impressive rally today 
[14:03] yes, was watching that earlier
[14:21] gn all, see you tomorrow
[14:22] cya
[14:35] decent day, not going to give it back. calling it a day. thx all

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 12/16/2012

ATTENTION: Trading Room is going to be on autopilot till Dec 26. All current trialers are welcome to stay and communicate with room members.  All new trials will be granted after Dec 26. All orders requiring hard copy shipping submitted between Dec 16 and Dec 26 will be shipped after Dec 27. 111 TRADES and A TAOIST TRADER online courses access will be granted as usual, with no delay.

Just to let you know, no update next two weeks....gonna' be a bit screwy with the silly season upon us.  Longer term pivots will likely be ephemeral in effect.  If you're trading the daily pivots, and perhaps the weekly pivots will have some effect, but in the reduced volumes the probability of being algo bait is much greater.  Anyway, the week that was:



 




 

  



















The "economic" news was, at worst positive, yet the market sold off after "The Bearded One"  announced the Fed would purchase additional MBS equal to the amount  of the terminating Operation Twist.  So we now have, in the parlance of @Shaq48 (the immortal trader...Jeff Davis)  The Buzz Lightyear Easing, "from infinity and beyond!"  The Fed will buy until they have met their new mandate of lower unemployment...this is big in Fed parlance folks.  The Fed was always pretty much only concerned with protecting the currency value...now, they are concerned with this new parameter.  This moves the Fed deeper into the web of the political equation, and frankly, may give politicians another party to blame for their folderol.

Anyway, the week that is: 




Friday, December 14, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

ATTENTION: Room is going to be on autopilot till Dec 26. All current trialers are welcome to stay and communicate with room members. All new trials will be granted after Dec 26. All orders requiring hard copy shipping submitted between Dec 16 and Dec 26 will be shipped after Dec 27. 111 TRADES and A TAOIST TRADER online courses access will be granted as usual, with no delay. 

 Fed Launches QE4, No Hard Landing In China, Greece Will Get Paid


- Three notable developments defined trading this week against the backdrop of the ongoing fiscal cliff debate in Washington: Wednesday's FOMC decision, the Greek bailout payment and China's November economic data. At its December policy meeting, the Fed broke new ground by committing itself to a new structure of policy guidance based on achieving certain economic data thresholds. In addition, it launched a new round of quantitative easing to replace Operation Twist. In Europe, a long-delayed €34B loan payment was released to Athens after eurozone finance ministers approved the move on Thursday. EU and Greek officials roundly proclaimed that fears Greece would be forced to leave the eurozone were now dead. In China, November economic data surprised to the upside and left the distinct impression that an economic hard landing is really off the table for Beijing. Meanwhile, Japan entered recession only days ahead of parliamentary elections this weekend. For the week, the DJIA -0.2%, the S&P500 -0.3% and the Nasdaq -0.2%. US Treasury yields backed up led by the 10-year which briefly approached 1.75% for the first time since late October.

- The Fed also replaced its low rates to 2015 pledge with new thresholds based on real economic performance. Instead of tying low rates to a date, the Fed will leave easy monetary policy in place as long as unemployment stays above 6.5% and inflation expectations don't get too far ahead of its long term goal of 2%. Chairman Bernanke cautioned that the new thresholds do not indicate monetary policy is on autopilot, warning that crossing the 6.5% boundary would not automatically trigger policy changes. The Fed will be looking at a variety of employment indicators, including payrolls, hours worked and participation rates and more when determining policy going forward.

- The Fed transformed Operation Twist into a program of outright treasury purchases this week. Some are already calling the program QE4, as the Fed will create $45B in new money (unsterilized purchases) every month to buy USTs, unlike Op Twist which merely adjusted the debt holdings on the Fed's balance sheet. Note that the new effort runs parallel to QE3, under which the Fed will create $40B in new money each month to buy agency MBS to lower mortgage rates.

- The fiscal cliff stalemate continued this week, with no significant movement seen toward a solution from either side. House Speaker Boehner paid a surprise visit to the White House Thursday night, only a few hours after claiming that President Obama had failed to offer a serious compromise to prevent the fiscal cliff. Spokespeople for the two men issued nearly identical statements, calling the meeting "frank" and saying the "lines of communication remain open." There were reports late on Friday that Senate Minority Leader McConnell was offering to raise rates on the top 2% of earners if no other tax hikes were passed, although Boehner was still said to oppose the idea.

- European equity markets hardly rejoiced at the final release of funding to Greece, with the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining only a few tenths of a percent on the week. European officials also managed to agree on a unified bank regulatory authority for the EU. All the warm feelings were cut short by political maneuvering in the Italian parliament that forced technocrat PM Monti, who helped restore stability in Italy, to call early elections for next February. In a bid to return to power, former PM Berlusconi withdrew the support of his center-right PDL party from the Monti government and announced his candidacy for the top spot. But after markets and public opinion polls suggested that they didn't want to see the return of former prime minister, Berlusconi sheepishly suggested he might support Monti as a candidate to lead the centrist coalition.

- OPEC maintained its 30M bpd production ceiling without much debate in Vienna. However the competition to replace Secretary General el-Badri was more intense, with plenty of jockeying among candidates from Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Members compromised by extending el-Bardi's term by one year. Feb WTI crude future finished the week up 1%.

- The US Treasury sold off the 234M common shares that comprise the last of its stake in AIG, effectively ending the bailout that began back in the dark days of 2008. Note that the Treasury still retains warrants to buy 2.7M shares of AIG common stock. The Treasury is looking to make $7.6B from the sale, bringing its profit in the overall AIG bailout to around $23B.

- Emboldened its new alliance with Japanese carrier Softbank, Sprint disclosed two big moves this week. Sprint consolidated its ownership of Clearwire, disclosing that it had taken a 51.7% stake as of December 11th and had offered to buy the rest of the company for $2.90/shr. There were also reports that Sprint has been talking to Dish Network for months about using Dish's spare satellite spectrum for wireless mobile service. Dish has been looking to bundle wireless phone services with its other offerings. This week the FCC approved the plans.

- In deal news, YM BioSciences is being acquired by Gilead for $2.95/shr, for a total deal valued at $510M. Delta will acquire 49% of Virgin Atlantic for $360M as part of a strategic alliance deal. Both airlines are looking to boost their transatlantic businesses against strong competition.

- EUR/USD began the week around 1.2900 and retook the 1.30 level on Tuesday after the December Germany ZEW survey saw its first positive reading since May. The Greek deal and the EU banking union agreement further consolidated the euro uptrend. EUR/USD took another leg higher after the European close on Friday, testing above 1.3170 before meeting resistance. Traders point out that when you look at the bigger picture, EUR/USD remained firmly within the 1.28-1.32 consolidation range that has been in place since September. One conclusion drawn by analysts last week after the ECB meeting was that there was a distinct possibility that the new year could see the ECB consider negative rates. The ECB's Praet diluted some of this speculation, warning that the ECB had very little room to maneuver on policy.

- The Swiss Franc weakened a bit through the middle of the week after UBS followed moves by other Swiss Banks to introduce fees on credit balances in CHF cash clearing accounts held by financial institutions at UBS Zurich. EUR/CHF probed above the 1.2120 level repeatedly in the second half of the week. On Thursday, the SNB left the floor in the pair unchanged at its policy meeting.

- Japan entered a technical recession after reporting its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth; Japan final Q3 GDP came in at an annualized rate of -3.5% and the final Q2 reading was revised to -0.03% from +0.2% prior. The fourth quarter will likely be even worse: the BOJ's quarterly Tankan manufacturing survey was very negative, coming in at an 11-quarter low. Recent yen weakness continued and USD/JPY hit a fresh 8-month high just below the 83 handle. The LDP party solidified its lead ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday. Note that 320 seats is the key threshold in the 480-seat lower house, as it would give the LDP a 2/3rd supermajority empowering them to vote down bills passed by the DPJ-controlled upper house.

- The November data published this week further suggests that the Chinese economy is bottoming out. New yuan loans rose for the first time in three months, both industrial production and retail sales pushed out to eight-month highs, and the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI was above 50 for the second month in a row. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite saw a monster 4.3% rally, pushing out to four-month highs above 2,150 in the wake of the data. This weekend the Politburo will convene its Central Economic Work Conference to set out 2013 economic policy objectives.

 TradeTheNews