Saturday, June 15, 2013

Nemo's Findings 6/16/2013

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Well, volatility seems to have returned, which is great for daytraders.  However, for the swingers, they're kinda' in no man's's "Hurry up, and wait!"

I've given you two views I use and it's a bit simpler breaking out the Moving Average and Fibonacci stuff from the trend, price level, and volume anaylsis.  In the first you can see that daily volume has generally been above average, which argues potentially that we are seeing distribution.  As you can see in the first, the 50 day MA has been the bottom for awhile.  Thursday morning the SPY touched it and never looked back basically finishing the week retracing about half the move on Thursday, but finished off the lows.  You see three fibonacci measurements.  The first on the left is the run from the last swing low to the market high.  The second one from the left, is a projection of the previous from this most recent set of lows as to where price could go in the bull case., and the third is a retracement from the highs, to the most recent lows.

In the second chart we can see that last week lows and this weeks bounce off the 50 maintained a parallel with the trend line at the top of the channel.  You can see there is still a small gap from the Monday close.  The blue rectangles are price gaps.  The red rectangles are high-volumes done at that specific price level, which are likely to be inflection areas should price retreat there.  The green lines are classic, horizontal price them price levels I think I see.  

Looking at SPY we have a higher low where the Wed./Thu. candle combination is considered a bullish engulfing pattern, where Friday's action consolidated in the upper half of Thursday's move, all maintaining the channel slope...I lean toward bullish. 

Interestingly enough, the IWM hasn't touched the 50 yet and volume hasn't been extraordinary:

Nor have the finnies, although the volume has been a bit more consistently above average:

One would have to think that the "risk on" index, IWM would start coming in before the SPY and the financials would have to break down, although the visual level of correlation between the spy and the financials must be damn close to 1.

The week that was:

You gotta' love Thursday's action...spy drops to the 50 day SMA then bounces north for the rest of the day, taking the other indexes with it...

 The week that is:

One could argue that all of them look a tad bearish on these shorter term charts, but let's see what happens in Asia and Europe on Sunday night.  Really, and I've said this before, bearish, bullish...meh...price action will tell.  The rest is arguably a waste of mental energy.  Figure out what you're going to do if price action brings you to a certain level and the setups tell you to go or not go.