Thursday, August 15, 2013

Aug 15 2013

Second 1:3er in first 30 min, first being C short. Variation of a Kangaroo tail reversal.

And one more, third in one morning:

Christmas come early?

Needless to say, with 4 1:3ers this day had no chance to be anything less than spectacular.

Session Time: Thu Aug 15 00:00:00 2013
[08:35] {nemo} sniff
01[08:35] {&Threei}  tough life?
[08:38] {nemo} looks like a sheep shearing day in the market, eco numbers are "good" too
01[08:39] {&Threei}  except empoure manufacturing
01[08:39] {&Threei}  empire
[08:43] {nemo} number was better than expected
01[08:44] {&Threei}  *(US) AUG EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 8.24 V 10.00E - Source
[08:44] {nemo} interesting...Finviz has it wrong then
[09:20] {RonS} gm
01[09:20] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {Alexs} gm
01[09:20] {&Threei}  alex :)
[09:21] {cipher} gm
01[09:22] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:28] {bbobr} gm
01[09:28] {&Threei}  bbobr :)
[09:28] {+cc_9} GM everyone.
01[09:28] {&Threei}  cc9 :)
[09:28] {goinshort} gm all
01[09:29] {&Threei}  gs :)
01[09:29] {&Threei}  hope you don't mind abreviation
[09:29] {goinshort} not at all
01[09:30] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  51 break
01[09:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:31] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .15 break
01[09:31] {&Threei}  If holds  .25
01[09:31] {&Threei}  Invalidated  GDX
01[09:31] {&Threei}  C 1:2
[09:31] {+cc_9} Will be focusing on IWM reversal today as its a tad stronger than SPY
01[09:32] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .34 break
01[09:32] {&Threei}  .40
01[09:32] {&Threei}  C 1:3
[09:33] {+cc_9} SPY hitting lows, IWM off LOD
01[09:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:33] {nemo} finnies at 50 day
[09:35] {+cc_9} IWM now on par with SPY, same range
[09:35] {nemo} spy at S3 daily and Weekly S2
[09:37] {+cc_9} IWm trying
[09:38] {nemo} numbers at 10 so we might not get any direction until then
01[09:38] {&Threei}  no go
01[09:39] {&Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .50 break
01[09:39] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:42] {+cc_9} big prints so far
[09:42] {+cc_9} We should see one pop before the #s at 10:00AM
[09:42] {+cc_9} then real movement then
[09:44] {dino} de hl l .95
[09:44] {+cc_9} IWM poking its head out
[09:45] {dino} nhi thinny, sm l .22
[09:45] {+cc_9} 103.25 is b/o for now
[09:45] {+cc_9} but of course with 15 minutes on the clock, its a quick trade only
[09:46] {dino} de stop .66 -.29
01[09:47] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .80 break
01[09:47] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:48] {&Threei}  1:1
01[09:50] {&Threei}  JPM = SoMG
[09:50] {+cc_9} SPY plunging, IWM holding its lows for now
01[09:52] {&Threei}  GDX 1:2
01[09:53] {&Threei}  1:3
01[09:53] {&Threei}  out
01[09:53] {&Threei}  finally decent one
[09:53] {robbers} Out also, thanks.
01[09:54] {&Threei}  :)
01[09:55] {&Threei}  JPM 1:2, &^%@#(^
[09:55] {+cc_9} relentless pressure on the SPY, 5 mins on eco data
[09:56] {nemo} sheep shearing day  BOHICA!!!!!
[09:56] {nemo} 166.30ish monthly pivot on SPY
01[09:59] {&Threei}  waiting numbers out
[09:59] {nemo} wuss
[10:00] {+cc_9} #s out any second
[10:00] {+cc_9} no market reaction yet
[10:00] {dino} de sm l .50
[10:00] {nemo} Ive got long signals but...I'm a wuss
[10:01] {+cc_9} CPI weaker than expected
01[10:01] {&Threei}  *(US) AUG NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 59 V 57.0E
[10:01] {+cc_9} jobless claims "better" than expected.
01[10:01] {&Threei}  *(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 9.3 V 15.0E
[10:02] {+cc_9} any headfake & the market gets bot, even on the back of those numbers
[10:04] {+cc_9} SPY still no direction
[10:04] {+cc_9} needs 169.70 for slight bounce
[10:05] {+cc_9} top for intraday 167.40 from earlier
[10:08] {+cc_9} death
[10:11] {+cc_9} There goes the .30s nemo, lets see now
[10:11] {nemo} 166.26 Monthly Pivot .16 Daily S4
[10:11] {nemo} we only get to S4 10% of the time
[10:13] {nemo} trying to hold the monthly
[10:13] {nemo} I have buy signals on indexes
[10:14] {nemo} Having said that, would like to see double bottom formations first after this tumble
01[10:14] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .95 break hl
01[10:15] {&Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:15] {&Threei}  stop to .89
[10:16] {+cc_9} long IWM here small
01[10:17] {&Threei}  nice lid keeping, NSXX
01[10:18] {&Threei}  there
01[10:18] {&Threei}  1:1
01[10:18] {&Threei}  1:2
[10:18] {+cc_9} CAT nice double bottom there Vad
[10:18] {nemo} spy bottomed at .17 .01 above daily S4
01[10:19] {&Threei}  ty
01[10:19] {&Threei}  I have my moments
[10:19] {nemo} looking at a cat's ass....weird
[10:21] {+cc_9} 167 on SPY, is that asking for too much ?
[10:21] {robbers} Out CAT, thanks Vad.
01[10:21] {&Threei}  1:3, out
01[10:21] {&Threei}  yw
[10:23] {+cc_9} come on SPY, just $0.50 more thats all...
[10:24] {+cc_9} hell, even 166.75 wall would be tolerated
[10:25] {dino} out de .05, +.55
[10:25] {robbers} wtg
[10:25] {RonS} builders mounting a reversal
[10:25] {+cc_9} IWM so far so good, staying with it
[10:26] {dino} dhi l .25
[10:26] {dino} builders positive
[10:29] {+cc_9} .70s first little wall on SPY
[10:30] {dino} ugaz spike
[10:33] {+cc_9} anyone here goes on LiveLeak for actual reality that media won't show ?
[10:33] {+cc_9} some stuff out of Egypt yesterday on LiveLeak looks very similar to Syria
[10:33] {+cc_9} Gov using snipers and police in civilian gear and saying they are the opposition, nuts
[10:34] {nemo} SOP  Hitler did it to start the invasion of Poland
[10:34] {nemo} Israel did it to start the 7 day war
[10:34] {nemo} We did it to start the Vietnam war
[10:35] {+cc_9} I wonder how long before the MB gets its first shipment of arms from Libya, the light weapons walmart of north Africa.
[10:39] {RonS} ...does this guy have a clue?...President Obama calls on protesters to act peacefully, says authorities should respect right of peaceful protest
[10:39] {+cc_9} send them tanks, tell them to be peaceful
[10:40] {nemo} of course he does  the sheep need to hold still so they can be shot
01[10:40] {&Threei}  he does now: "hey, this gives me a clue, maybe ousting Mubarak wasn't such a good idea..."
[10:41] {+cc_9} Mubarak is still in power
[10:42] {+cc_9} calling the shots from his club med joint
[10:42] {nemo} frickin' tsla
[10:42] {+cc_9} What most people don't realize is that Egypt's military controls all subsidies : food, heating gas, petrol etc...
01[10:42] {&Threei}  out of a few tin dictators of the region he pushed out the one who kept relative order and peace, and left well alone those who instill chaos and provoke war
01[10:46] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .30 break
01[10:46] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:47] {&Threei}  President Obama announces cancellation of upcoming 'Bright Star' joint US-Egyptian military exercise
01[10:47] {&Threei}  up to this point it was a go, eh?
[10:47] {nemo} optics
[10:48] {+cc_9} They need more Killdozer joint exercise
[10:49] {+cc_9} I know this is far fetched, but at one point, Egypt might contemplate leasing the pyramids...Suez can't pay for it all
[10:49] {+cc_9} Saudi can pressure Qatar to cut its loans to Egypt
[10:50] {nemo} pyramids were a Jewish plot
[10:51] {RonS} lol
01[10:51] {&Threei}  no go... too bad, looked very tempting and started out nicely
[10:57] {+cc_9} SPY going for another test
[10:57] {nemo} huge frickin' volume spike XLF
[10:58] {+cc_9} see it
[10:59] {+cc_9} SPY dodged the LOD bullet for now
[10:59] {nemo} Monthly Pivot and daily S4 within .10 of each other, pretty strong
[11:09] {+cc_9} vol spike SPY, some buyers
[11:10] {+cc_9} SPY trying for a leg up
[11:10] {+cc_9} b/o 166.80
[11:11] {+cc_9} .75 first wall, clears that should be god
[11:13] {+cc_9} giddy up
[11:14] {+cc_9} 166.75 wall test as expected.
[11:14] {nemo} vwap and price resistance
01[11:14] {&Threei}  giddy down?
[11:14] {+cc_9} No, it was a wall test, it gets through it, volume is there
01[11:17] {&Threei}  yeah, giddy up
[11:17] {+cc_9} SPY levels that I have for today :
01[11:17] {&Threei}  thern there probably is giddy sideways...
[11:18] {+cc_9} id like to first get the giddy up to 167 then the giddy sideways
[11:19] {+cc_9} @ wall, needs to crack. Vol still behind it...for 11:20AM, its half decent
[11:19] {dino} de hl l .01
[11:20] {+cc_9} SPY 2 min sitting right under the wall
[11:21] {+cc_9} somewhat of an I-H&S on 2/5 mins SPY
[11:23] {+cc_9} and through the wall. SPY .80s printing
[11:24] {+cc_9} :)
[11:24] {RonS} db nice reversal
[11:31] {+cc_9} all out IWM
[11:33] {dino} de to b/e stuck
[11:33] {dino} dhi to .57
[11:37] {+cc_9} And there goes IWM/SPY
[11:38] {dino} out dhi .65, +.40
01[11:45] {&Threei}  Egypt police to use live bullets to defend against attacks on buildings, security forces, interior ministry says
01[11:45] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .90 break
01[11:46] {&Threei}  If holds  .80
[11:46] {dino} out de .20, +.20
01[11:48] {&Threei}  1:1
[11:57] {robbers} Out GDX at .03
[11:57] {robbers} Thanks.
01[11:59] {&Threei}  yw
01[12:10] {&Threei}  Taper Jitters Drive Risk Appetite Away
[12:11] {nemo} I'd love to shoot the assholes that write financial story headlines
[12:11] {RonS} lol...but how do you really feel?...
[12:12] {nemo} well, you might find it a bit extreme if I said I wanted to wipe their genetic seed from the earth
[12:14] {+cc_9} If anyone checked out the SPY Chart I posted @ 11:17, here is the updated one :
[12:14] {dino} val hl l .50
[12:18] {nemo} imo finnies recapture the 50 day
[12:43] {nemo} wow de
[12:45] {RonS} Icahn on twitter:  NYT's thesis that Ackman's actions prove something is wrong with activism is specious. His actions prove only something is wrong with Ackman
01[12:47] {&Threei}  lol
[12:48] {nemo}
01[12:49] {&Threei}  GDX 1:3
01[12:49] {&Threei}  out
[12:49] {dino} out val .85, +.35
[12:49] {+cc_9} DE kind of needed that yesterday
[12:53] {+cc_9} wow GDX
[12:53] {+cc_9} and holy shit DUST
[12:54] {RonS}  $SLW CEO: "In the second quarter, our average cash cost for $SLV was $4.14 per ounce and for $GLD it was $350 per ounce.
[13:01] {nemo} gdx ;ppls sjprt jere
[13:01] {nemo} short here
[13:02] {RonS} slw 86 day high
[13:05] {+cc_9} SPY 167 multiple tests, great wall
[13:06] {+cc_9} looking for .30 - .40 range as support now
[13:06] {nemo} this does not look auspicious for spy
[13:09] {+cc_9} DUST { $50.00
[13:09] {+cc_9} putain de bordel
[13:09] {RonS} holy indicator remains weak...IBM
[13:10] {nemo} arguably indexes long here
01[13:11] {&Threei}  3 visuals:
[13:12] {dino} aegr sm l ave .13
[13:13] {+cc_9} indexes nearing session lows
[13:13] {+cc_9} This loks like some serious liquidation
[13:13] {nemo} get ready to throw the women and children overboard
[13:13] {nemo} sharks gotta' eat too
[13:14] {+cc_9} .30 so far holding SPY
[13:14] {nemo} some serious volume coming in
[13:15] {+cc_9} .20 last intraday support, below that its a toilet flush
[13:17] {+cc_9} SPY ~ triple intraday bottom for now, confirmation is above 166.70
[13:18] {+cc_9} not a full day for 1:20PM
[13:19] {+cc_9} I have a feeling we're about to see a wild print, either a stop eater sub 166.20 or a fast push to reverse the trend
[13:19] {+cc_9} volume picking up still
[13:20] {nemo} oh the melodrama
[13:22] {+cc_9} DIA already hitting fresh lows
[13:22] {+cc_9} IWM few cents shy, SPY fighting for that 166.20
[13:25] {dino} spy gap 165.20
[13:25] {nemo} yeah, but I would expect a bounce off the whole today
[13:27] {+cc_9} thats what I thought yesterday too, before we had a that nose dive and crash after hours
[13:27] {nemo} what time it crash?
[13:27] {+cc_9} but yes today looks like slight "capitulation" from yesterday, bounce is over due. Nothing crazy, at best 167.50
[13:28] {+cc_9} SPY went down another $0.30 after hours yesterday
[13:29] {+cc_9} IWM @ LOD, spy still hanging
[13:29] {dino} need another % imo, dji only down 2.5%, s/p 2.3%. usually 3.5% then bounce
[13:29] {nemo} monthly pivot iwm 102.04
[13:34] {RonS} nemo re retweet by northman:  because they have re-defined it into oblivion...
[13:34] {nemo} yep
[13:35] {nemo} I guess food and fuel don't count  not to mention if you can't afford steak, you'll buy hamburg.  If you can't afford hamburg, you'll buy dog food
[13:35] {dino} hmmm, was thinking hotdogs
[13:35] {nemo} so, that type of substitution is not considered in inflation
[13:35] {nemo} I wouldn't feed my dog hotdogs
[13:36] {nemo} .65-.74 key area for spy
[13:36] {dino} funny thing, my dog will not eat bologna
[13:36] {nemo} I can confirm rabbits LOVE raisins
[13:42] {+cc_9} SPY the suspense is getting lame
[13:43] {nemo} gdx at amptjer ga[
[13:43] {nemo} another gap
[13:45] {+cc_9} SPY trying, IWm slight lag, should get a delayed push
[13:47] {nemo} oh bummmer...the keyboardist from the Blue Oyster Cult died
[13:48] {+cc_9} GDX up 5 days out of the past 6...impressive.
[13:48] {nemo} 35% off the bottom
[13:51] {dino} aegr stop
[13:54] {+cc_9} GDX getting close to its daily resistance
01[13:54] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .10 break
01[13:54] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
[13:55] {nemo} that's a ballsy call
01[13:57] {&Threei}  1:1
[13:59] {+cc_9} IWM poking its head out ahead of SPY, first time today
[14:08] {nemo} oh boy
[14:15] {nemo} gap hell...release the hounds of war!!!!
[14:30] {+cc_9} SPY stop eater triggered, back to near 166.70
[14:39] {nemo} pretty good spy volume today
01[14:40] {&Threei}  yup, picks up
01[14:40] {&Threei}  9% above 3-months ave
01[14:40] {&Threei}  no wonfer we get 4 1:3ers
01[14:40] {&Threei}  wonder either
01[14:40] {&Threei}  and one of them actually went to 1:12
[14:41] {+cc_9} anyone dare to call the SPY close ?
[14:42] {+cc_9} we're about to test that 166.70 once again
[14:42] {nemo} red
[14:42] {+cc_9} I was thinking more along the lines of spy closes @ xxx.xx
[14:42] {nemo} one would think they would want to try and close it above 167 at a minimum
[14:44] {+cc_9} IWM trying
[14:47] {+cc_9} 166.70 denied again on SPY
[14:48] {nemo} rejection at vwap not good from an institutional point of view
[14:49] {+cc_9} PHM wowza
[14:58] {+cc_9} TOL nonstop since 10:00AM data
[14:59] {nemo} interesting, algo only has stocks on green side yet indexes not moving
[15:00] {nemo} spy volume
[15:00] {nemo} oops guess it was a mistake
[15:07] {+cc_9} another I-H&S on 5min SPY starting from 12:30PM
[15:10] {+cc_9} on triple digit down days, we tend to bounce around this time, especially coming from a sell-off yesterday. Mixed signals on various timeframes, can't read it other than watch the trendlines set on the SPY chart.
[15:11] {nemo} one would expect short covering, but this this range since 10:00 may have covered it
[15:12] {nemo} look at finnies iwm and spy, last assault on vwap unsuccessful
[15:12] {+cc_9} Back to the 166.20 test on SPY, IWM failing faster
[15:13] {nemo} H&S on spy if you look from 10:00 am on
[15:13] {nemo} this spy low here monthly pivot to the penny
[15:14] {nemo} xlf volume spikes
[15:15] {nemo} Here's a clean chart:
[15:15] {nemo} wtf
[15:15] {+cc_9} bunch of nonsense
[15:16] {nemo} my eyes can't take it
[15:16] {nemo} Vad's an Ichimoku groupie
[15:16] {nemo} kinda' good thing he can't reach me
[15:18] {+cc_9} LODs starting to flash
[15:18] {nemo} lo ticker's moving
[15:19] {+cc_9} SPY big candle about to form on the 5min
[15:19] {+cc_9} wick to wick should be about $0.25
01[15:20] {&Threei}  chart where you can't at once see what line is the price should be destriyed and its author culled
[15:20] {+cc_9} LOD stop eater algo on standby
[15:20] {+cc_9} VXX @ highs
[15:20] {nemo} think they save that spy gap for another day
[15:21] {+cc_9} SPY testing 166.20 for the 5th time today
[15:21] {nemo} like a Thai hooker with ghonnorhea
[15:21] {nemo} mmmhhh, where'd that come from?
[15:21] {+cc_9} highest volume bar on 5min SPY since 2:10PM
[15:22] {nemo} look xlf
[15:22] {dino} speaking of hookers, look at the spread on regn, .40
[15:22] {nemo} well, if the proverbial short covering is going to commence
[15:22] {nemo} clap...
[15:22] {nemo} I can't....
[15:22] {nemo} tight, huh?
[15:23] {nemo} pretty good battle here on spy
[15:23] {+cc_9} massive volume SPY = 0 action
[15:23] {+cc_9} cant even clear .40
[15:24] {+cc_9} get that order flow, get the suckers, buy the dip, etc....
[15:24] {nemo} oh oh
[15:24] {+cc_9} aaaaaaand headfake
[15:24] {nemo} slammed that right back down
[15:25] {nemo} might be trying to shake the longs before it goes
[15:25] {+cc_9} already shook them 4 times
[15:26] {nemo} yeah, was thinking the short covering meme
[15:26] {+cc_9} and those who bot the close yesterday for a reversal, well, still in
[15:26] {+cc_9} unless they hit the bids on that 10AM capitulation
[15:26] {nemo} an inverted hammmer, then a doji, what now
[15:27] {+cc_9} we should be ripping 50 points fast either direction, not this bs wash trading
01[15:28] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .10 break
[15:28] {nemo} woulda' shoulda' coulda'  now we should start hearing about the prom queen
01[15:28] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:29] {+cc_9} up 3 cents, down 2
[15:29] {+cc_9} fun
[15:29] {nemo} yep was the shakeout, .45 next level
[15:30] {+cc_9} Paulson told investors last month to hold gold, this month he dumped 50% his position
[15:30] {RonS} ...shocked there is gambling in this establishment
[15:30] {+cc_9} IWM major lag
[15:30] {+cc_9} it actually just downticked while the SPY just pushed near .50
[15:31] {+cc_9} what a dog
[15:31] {nemo} Of all the gin joints
[15:31] {+cc_9} IWM volume spike on 5min
[15:32] {+cc_9} unreal...SPY prints near 166.50, IWM downticks
[15:32] {nemo} spy dropped the .45 this isn't looking good...cut up the women and children for chum
[15:32] {+cc_9} Even the DIA and the Qs upticked along, more pressure on the small caps
[15:33] {nemo} use your shift key
[15:33] {nemo} I can hear Vad now, "Oh Nemo, wtf..."
[15:34] {+cc_9} IWM @ LOD
[15:37] {nemo} is today op ex Thursday?
[15:37] {RonS} could call it that...
[15:38] {nemo} great TweetOfGod
[15:38] {dino} yes
[15:38] {nemo} the tweet?
[15:39] {+cc_9} Once again, all the move will be during the last 2 minutes, another EOD trap
[15:39] {+cc_9} lame...really lame
[15:40] {+cc_9} IWM fresh lows SPY $0.20 off
[15:41] {Alexs} Are you in GDX trade Vad?
01[15:41] {&Threei}  yes
01[15:41] {&Threei}  should have partialed near 30 but missed it
01[15:43] {&Threei}  half out
01[15:43] {&Threei}  stop .11
[15:44] {+cc_9} bottom to top of candle SPY in last 30 minutes ? $0.10
[15:44] {+cc_9} if this was all the bounce, its pathetic
[15:45] {+cc_9} anything sub 167.40 is a pathetic close
01[15:45] {&Threei}  the best day in the whole summer I think
[15:46] {Alexs} No best day was 7/31
[15:46] {nemo} 167  cc?
01[15:46] {&Threei}  ok... second best
[15:46] {Alexs} lol
[15:47] {+cc_9} 167.40 was pre-market range nemo
[15:47] {+cc_9} for a reversal, needs at least a close @ or above 167.40
[15:48] {+cc_9} we were unable to get/stay above 166.70 since 1PM. All we had was a $0.50 range with both top and bottom testing twice
01[15:50] {&Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:50] {&Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {+cc_9} Here is the same SPY chart from earlier, but updated :
[15:50] {nemo} morituri te salutamos
[15:51] {nemo} didn't work cc
[15:51] {+cc_9}
[15:51] {+cc_9} click the square, even if shows broken it will open
[15:52] {+cc_9} just hosted
[15:52] {+cc_9}
[15:53] {+cc_9} works now ?
[15:53] {nemo} yep
[15:54] {+cc_9} last lap, now we get direction
[15:56] {+cc_9} Small caps ticking ahead
[15:56] {+cc_9} IWM small pop ahead of S&P