Monday, September 30, 2013

October-November 2013 Outlook: The World Series

TradeTheNews.com October-November 2013 Outlook: The World Series


With the World Series just around the corner, the baseball playoffs provides an apt metaphor for the global outlook: after a grueling summer of hard fought battles, the real game is just beginning. In the past few months, global markets have been characterized by broad swings, particularly in currencies and government bonds, as markets anticipate tighter US monetary policy. Though the Fed declined to cut back its bond buying program at its September meeting, tapering is in the on deck circle.

Despite nervousness about the impending withdrawal of quantitative easing, there are certainly some bright spots, most visibly in the US stock market. For the second straight year the S&P500 has not retested its January opening level, and barring an outright crash will not do so for the rest of the year, a hitting streak that has only occurred once before, in 1975-1976 (ending with a down day on the first trading day of 1977). The extraordinary longevity of this stock market rally has been supported by monetary policy and nurtured by measured by improved corporate results.

Still the curtailment of QE3 portends the eventual lifting of extraordinary measures by central banks across the globe, shifting focus to fiscal policy authorities who have a lot of catching up to do. After years of central banks propping up the global economy, fiscal policy makers must finally take their turn at the plate. The re-election of German Chancellor Merkel should help move along European efforts to pull together for more Europe, while in the US Congress is taking another stab at a budget deal even as the Fed contemplates its first pull back from extraordinary measures. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Abe is on the threshold of announcing details of the third arrow of his economic turnaround policy. The direction of the next leg of the world market will be largely dependent on how these policies are crafted and received.

No Joy in Mudville

Looking an awful lot like Casey at the Bat, Washington is about to take its third swing at a budget deal after rebuffing two chances for a grand bargain (resulting in the 2011 sovereign downgrade and the Sequester). The dysfunction on Capitol Hill has reached such a level that it feels as if Congress has turned brinkmanship into the new national pastime. Following what has become standard operating procedure, Congress has squandered the entire summer, again waiting to the last minute to address the budget authorization measure. This time round House Republicans are attempting to use the publics unease with Obamacare and the threat of a government shutdown to gain leverage over the budget process.

In the event of a government shutdown, the Treasury will maintain normal borrowing and debt operations, but the Commerce and Labor Departments have said they will not collect or release data, including the key monthly employment figures due out on October 4. A dearth of hard economic data could spook markets, particularly when the Feds pending decision on tapering is so data dependent. In the end, legislators will likely follow their established pattern, taking the issue to the eleventh hour or beyond, perhaps forcing a brief government shutdown, but ultimately agreeing to some form of stopgap spending bill to keep the government open for a few more months.

But in D.C.s fiscal double header, the stopgap spending bill is only a warm-up to the rubber match, namely the debt ceiling debate. US Treasury Secretary Lew recently stated that his departments extraordinary measures to extend the debt limit will be exhaust by October 17 leaving it with no ability to borrow, and the CBO has estimated that the Treasury will have to begin prioritizing payments or actually default sometime between October 22 and October 31. This gives Congress only a couple weeks to go from loggerheads to an agreement.

Ratings agencies Moodys and Fitch will be watching the proceedings in D.C. as closely as anyone. Their peers at S&P downgraded the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ in August 2011 after the original debt ceiling showdown took the reputation of Congress to an all-time low. At the time, S&P made it clear that the downgrade was based largely on the political dysfunction in Washington. The counterintuitive move in the treasury market after the S&P downgrade, with investors plowing even more money into the relative safety of US government debt, may have added to the complacency over the debt ceiling issue among politicians who now might be convinced another downgrade will have no ill effect. They may be right, or a second ratings cut could trigger the disaster that some predicted after the S&P downgrade. No one knows for sure.

In July, Moodys resolved a ratings review by raising its outlook on the US sovereign back to stable from negative, citing an improved debt trajectory (thanks to the blind cuts imposed by the sequester), and indicated it did not see the need for further review in the near term. Fitch, however, warned several times this year that, while it does not anticipate a repeat of the debt ceiling crisis of August 2011, a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion would prompt a review and likely downgrade of the nations AAA rating.

This fiscal battle will continue to repeat on instant replay until Congress and the President find the determination to come to a grand bargain for a long term budget. The ultimate shape of such a deal will have to be crafted to satisfy the constituencies of both sides that they did not violate their core values. This might involve restoring military funding lost to the sequester by finding some $200B in additional savings from long standing programs like farm subsidies, while largely preserving Medicare and Social Security entitlements that are sacrosanct to Democrats, and raising select taxes on special government services but labeling them as service fees so Republicans can save face. Until such a deal is struck, the kick-the-can pattern in Washington could continue indefinitely.

Mrs. October

While US fiscal policy has been in a shambles, Fed monetary policy has kept a steadying hand on markets. Thus the surprise decision to hold off on tapering bond purchases in September may have further chipped away at the Feds credibility, as the central banks transparency joined its shaky economic projections on the disabled list. Several FOMC members have described the decision not to taper at the September policy meeting as a close call, and in the next breath say that tepid data could justify delaying the process to December or even into early 2014. At the September press conference, Bernanke may have confused things more by insisting that the Fed never said it would taper at that meeting, but also suggesting they could start curtailing QE as soon as the economic data justified it, going so far as to say he could arrange an impromptu press teleconference in October if needed. After muddling its message, the Fed needs to redouble its efforts to clarify its communications.

This effort is especially tricky because no matter how the policy is communicated, markets are naturally forward-looking and will inevitably perceive tapering as a step toward the larger exit strategy. The Fed has done its best to break this link, often reiterating that the end of QE3 is on an entirely separate track than interest rate policy, and more recently downplaying the unofficial 7% unemployment milepost for ending QE that created confusion by echoing the formal 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering tighter rates. The 6.5% threshold has also been softened too in order to convince markets it is not a trigger for a rate hike, the Fed doves are now suggesting that they could wait until well after joblessness moves past that point before tightening.

One uncertainty that will be lifted in October is the question of who will lead the Fed for the next four years. Most Fed watchers think Bernanke has pitched a good game, but it will be up to his reliever to close out the extraordinary stimulus program. In the face of what may have been an embarrassing Senate panel rejection, President Obamas first choice, Larry Summers, stepped aside, leaving Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen as the overwhelming favorite to replace Bernanke. In addition to her impeccable economic credentials, as an architect of the Feds strategy to buy assets and keep interest rates low until unemployment retreats below 6.5%, Yellen would clearly create the most seamless and consistent policy transition from the Bernanke era. In the current political climate, her confirmation may face some opposition from Republicans who think Bernanke is too dovish and consider Yellen, a Democrat, as even worse. But she has already developed significant Democratic support in the Senate which should ensure her confirmation. In reviewing his choices, President Obama is not likely to signal for a righty from the bullpen, but the leading alternative candidate now appears to be former Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn, who is highly respected among international central bankers and is seen as apolitical, which may be more palatable to Republicans.

Trouble with the Curve

Emerging markets have been disproportionately hit by the Feds tapering pitch: ever since Bernanke started talking about pulling back QE, emerging economies have taken it the hardest. For example, the Indian rupee and Brazilian real each depreciated by more than 20 percent between May and August, and in that same timeframe the main stock indices in both countries have experienced dizzying gyrations. Commenting on the emerging markets vulnerability to Fed tapering, the IMF recently concluded that tighter US monetary policy could dampen growth in the emerging markets which could in turn engender a global slowdown and compel interventions to prevent excessive volatility.

Even the star player of the emerging markets, China, had a problematic summer. Its economy has been in a bit of a lull, posting lackluster PMI and manufacturing readings for most of the year, causing some analysts to question its 7.5% GDP target. But headed into the National Day golden week holiday in the first week of October, there have been a few signs that these measures are turning upward again. The September HSBC flash manufacturing PMI reading chalked up its second consecutive month of expansion and a six-month high, while the official manufacturing survey has been in a phase of modest expansion for 12 straight months. The Q3 GDP report due in mid-October will tell the tale of whether this recent upturn in economic data amounted to an improving growth trend. Even if it has, Chinas growth will still be challenged headed into 2014 as the government works on reforms aimed at correcting structural problems of overcapacity in some key industries, which will be a long-term benefit but short-term drag on the economy.

Middle East Crisis Goes Into Extra Innings

The batting average for Middle East crisis resolution is very low, but some seemingly positive developments in the most intractable problems of the region have tamped down tensions, at least for the moment. A new round of Israeli/Palestinian peace talks have begun, a tentative UN plan to control and destroy Syrias chemical weapons has averted a US military intervention, protests continue in Egypt but the level of violence has subsided, and Irans new President is suddenly spouting conciliatory words on the nuclear issue.

Irans charm offensive at the UN gathering in late September led many officials to believe that the new Iranian President Rohani may indeed be moderating his governments stance as he seeks to end debilitating sanctions. Rohani promises to present a new nuclear plan at a mid-October meeting with the major powers (P5+1) in Geneva in an effort to achieve quick and tangible results. Much attention will be given to these meetings to see whether Rohani is truly taking Iran in a new direction, or if hes merely presenting the same old delaying tactics with a new face.

Developments in all of these theaters of the Middle East will continue to impact the energy market. For example, as Egypts interim leadership promises the transitional phase of government should end by next spring, any fresh outbreak of violence could renew fears about Suez Canal traffic. Another spot in the region to watch is Libya, which has protests of its own that have disrupted oil production and shipping facilities for months. The fledgling government and state oil company have been unable to prevent political activists and militia groups from disrupting the flow of its coveted oil and the lost revenue (over $100M a day since July) may soon cause budgetary problems that could aggravate the situation.

As unpredictable as Middle East politics, Mother Nature is another wildcard for the energy market. The 2013 hurricane season was forecast to be very active, but so far it has spared Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations, with its biggest impact being a series of storms in Mexico that caused severe mudslides which could shave a tenth of a percent off of that nations GDP. There are still two months before the Atlantic hurricane season ends (November 30), and with eight years gone by since Katrina, the Gulf may be due for a disruptive storm.

Breaking Europes Slump

In recent months Europe is most notable for how quiet it has become. After two years of going from crisis to crisis, things have finally stabilized in the last year. Euro Zone unemployment appears to have leveled off at just above 12% and most of the continent has returned to modest GDP growth after a shallow double dip recession. Spains banking troubles have diminished, Greece is digging out of its hole a little faster than planned, Cyprus is out of the headlines, and Ireland is working toward fully returning itself to the debt markets for funding.

This period of relative calm has allowed the ECB to quietly withdraw from headline-grabbing discussions of untested policy options like negative deposit rates. Instead the central bank has been able to turn to inside baseball consultations on aspects surrounding European banking system reform. Officials are delving into increasingly technical discussions of the single supervisory mechanism (SSM) for banks that is set to go into effect for the largest institutions next year, and the related asset quality review that is currently being conducted at those banks. There is also some low-key talk that the ECB may consider launching another Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) to ensure banks liquidity.

Unfortunately, Europes political scene is less placid. After inconclusive Italian elections in February, the sparring parties agreed to support centrist Enrico Letta as Prime Minister, allowing government business to resume. But a legal and political battle over former PM Berlusconis seat in the Senate may unravel this delicate coalition. Several times, members of Berlusconis center-right PDL party have threatened withdraw support for the government unless the former PM is pardoned from his legal troubles and his Senate seat is preserved. The most recent squawking from the PDL has PM Letta fed up, and he is now demanding a confidence vote, saying we either renew support and put Italys interests first, or we can end this government experience. If the PDL decides it doesnt want to play ball with a non-partisan like Letta, it is unclear who would be able to lead a new government in Italy, potentially sending the Euro Zone back into crisis mode.

The political process has gone more smoothly in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel was just re-elected to a third four-year term. Her party had its best showing since 1990, but its former coalition partner, the FDP, failed to reach the 5% threshold needed to be seated in the Bundestag. Thus Merkel will have to form a coalition government with the main opposition SPD party or with the Greens. The most likely outcome appears to be a grand coalition with the center-left SPD, which is eyeing the finance or labor ministry portfolio as a down payment for its cooperation. To entice the SPD, Merkel allies have already suggested some concessions on taxes and minimum wages, which should smooth the process of establishing a coalition by mid-November when the SPD party convention would vote on approving a unity deal.

A Rare Triple Play

Japans days of political turnover appear to be at an end, as Prime Minister Abe has solidified his hold on the government and pushed ahead with his eponymous economic program aimed at snapping the nations economic growth back into the Big Leagues. The three arrows of Abenomics are massive monetary stimulus to beat deflation with the side effect of a weaker yen, a deficit-financed supplemental budget filled with new public works spending, and a reform program to boost growth and competitiveness by stimulating private investment (upon winning the bid for the 2020 Summer Olympics, Abe called the Tokyo Games the unofficial fourth arrow, acting as a natural bookend to judge Japans progress seven years hence).

At the outset of Abes shock and awe plan many observers, including the IMFs chief economist, called the policy risky given the frontloading of monetary stimulus, and some volatile moments in the Japanese markets seemed to bear out this assessment. But this volatility has eased the Nikkei index has found a range between 13,000 and 15,000 and the yen has settled near parity and it appears some progress is being made toward the goals of Abenomics. Many economists questioned whether the target of reaching 2% inflation within two years was realistic, but progress is being made. CPI data has risen for three straight months and national core CPI hit 0.8% in August, the highest rate since the start of the 2008 global financial crisis.

The biggest fear for Japan, with its enormous debt market, would be another sudden uncontrolled jump in interest rates like the one seen in May, when the key 10-year rate nearly doubled in a matter of days. If rate rises are not more gradual and supported by a commensurate rise in economic activity it could turn the three arrows into three strikes, shattering Japans faith in Abenomics.

This is what makes the implementation of Japans impending consumption tax increase such a delicate matter. On October 1, Abe is expected to formally approve a two-stage sales tax increase starting early next year. Reports indicate that Abe will try to offset the impact on consumers by offering a stimulus package and corporate tax cuts that will be structured to motivate employers to pass the benefits on to employees who will then spend it into the economy. This will be the first big test of Abenomics for investors who are concerned that the program has relied too heavily on financial engineering and wont gain traction unless there is follow through on structural reforms. Some skeptics are already predicting that the BOJ will be forced to add more quantitative easing as early as Q4 to keep the plan in motion.

The Closer

If policy makers can clear up some uncertainties, markets could see a real Fall Classic, but if they start chalking up more errors, the next few months could get ugly. This summer the odds of another Euro Zone meltdown or an economy-damaging US budget stalemate looked low, but simmering disputes have erupted again into new potential crises.

If Italys political feuds erupt into full blown turmoil, it could undo a years worth of recovery in Europe. The real risk would be another sovereign downgrade which could cause funding costs to soar. Japan also carries the risk of bond markets coming unhinged if the third phase of Abenomics turns out to be a bloop single instead of a home run.

In the US, a robust stock market headed into another round of solid quarterly earnings reports could lead Congress to underestimate the impact of another scrap over the debt ceiling. The anticipated kinks in the start-up of state health insurance exchanges mandated by Obamacare to begin on October 1 could also lend Republicans some ammunition to continue their fight. But a rookie Fed Chairman on the mound will not be able to pitch the economy out of a jam if Congress toys with default.

Very low inflation gives the Fed leeway to continue QE indefinitely, but the perception that the FOMC misled markets about a September taper may increase the pressure to communicate more precisely about the schedule for tapering. It also may be that the FOMC held off entirely because of the uncertainty around the budget battle in Washington and could move ahead with the taper once that sticky situation is resolved.

Though the Fed, and now other central banks, are promising rates will stay ultra-low for a long time, at some point markets will again focus on tapering which could cause some fresh volatility as weak hands are forced out. Turning off the QE tap will only be the first step in a long process of central banks unwinding five years of extraordinary stimulus, and how the market contends with it will shed some light on how the global economy will fare in the post-steroid era.


CALENDAR

OCTOBER
1: EU Unemployment readings; UK manufacturing PMI; US ISM manufacturing PMI; China National Day Golden Week (through Oct 7); Obamacare state health exchanges begin operation
2: ECB policy statement; Italy confidence vote on PM Letta (tentative); China non-manufacturing PMI
3: UK services PMI; EU retail sales; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI; US factory orders; BOJ policy statement
4: US payrolls and unemployment (may be postponed by govt shutdown)

8: US trade balance; BOJ minutes
9: UK manufacturing; minutes of Sept FOMC meeting
10: BOE policy statement
11: US retail sales; prelim Michigan consumer sentiment
12: China trade balance (subject to change)

13: China CPI and PPI (subject to change)
14: Euro Zone industrial production
15: UK CPI; start of 2-day meeting in Geneva between Iran and P5+1
16: UK unemployment; German ZEW sentiment; US CPI
17: US housing starts and building permits; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; US debt ceiling reached, extraordinary measures exhausted; China Q3 GDP and industrial production (subject to change)
18: UK retail sales

21: US existing home sales; Japan trade balance
22: German Ifo business climate
23: BOE inflation letter and minutes; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
24: Various Euro Zone flash PMI readings; US new home sales; Japan retail sales and industrial production; Japan Core CPI
25: German retail sales; UK prelim Q3 GDP; US durable goods orders; G7 minister meetings

28: US pending home sales
29: US consumer confidence
30: US advance Q3 GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement
31: Euro Zone unemployment; US personal spending; Chicago PMI; China manufacturing PMI
NOVEMBER
1: UK manufacturing PMI; US payrolls and unemployment; US ISM manufacturing PMI
2: China services PMI

4: US factory orders
5: UK services PMI; US trade balance; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI: Japan prelim Q3 GDP
6: UK manufacturing; EU retail sales
7: BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement; China CPI and PPI (subject to change)
8: China trade balance and industrial production (subject to change)

12: UK CPI
13: UK unemployment; BOE inflation report
14: Euro Zone prelim Q3 GDP readings; US retail sale and PPI
15: UK retail sales; EU CPI; US CPI; prelim Michigan consumer sentiment
14-16: German SPD party convention (required to vote on an coalition government deal)

19: US housing starts and building permits
20: German ZEW sentiment; US existing home sales; FOMC minutes; Japan trade balance; BOJ policy statement
21: German Ifo business climate; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
22: Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI readings; UK Q3 GDP (2nd reading)

25: US pending home sales; BOJ minutes
26: US prelim Q3 GDP (2nd reading); US consumer confidence
27: US durable goods orders; US new home sales
28: German unemployment; Japan household spending; Japan core CPI
29: German retail sales; Euro Zone unemployment; Chicago PMI
30: China manufacturing PMI; Atlantic hurricane season ends



Sept 30 2013

Good morning and questionable afternoon, as market focused on this endless buzz about shutdown (shut it down or shut up already!) Overall, slightly positive to flat day.


Session Time: Mon Sep 30 00:00:00 2013
[08:49] {dino} gm
[08:49] {nemo} Marriage is exchanging the praises of many for the criticism of one
[08:50] {nemo} Patriots took a HUGE hit to their defense last night
[08:51] {dino} my jets just can't seem to get a quarterback
[08:51] {nemo} that' always a crap shoot...anyway WIlfork done for the year
[08:52] {cipher} gm
01[08:52] {&Threei}  morning guys
[08:55] {jdetente} morning all
01[08:57] {&Threei}  jd :)
[09:00] {nemo} http://t.co/zCsOKoh6fU
[09:05] {RonS} gm
01[09:06] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:14] {fish_49} gm all
[09:14] {fish_49} we gapping down this am?
01[09:14] {&Threei}  fish :)
01[09:14] {&Threei}  we are
[09:15] {nemo} turn the chart right side up
[09:15] {fish_49} Good Morning nemo
[09:15] {nemo} like fingernails across a blackboard
[09:16] {nemo} had to break up another stand-off between my father and bunny last night
[09:17] {nemo} It would make a great comedy scene
[09:18] {RonS} Deliverance banjo background music or Leone spaghetti western?
01[09:18] {&Threei}  lol
[09:18] {ese} morning
01[09:19] {&Threei}  so, government shutdown or no?
01[09:19] {&Threei}  ese :)
[09:19] {fish_49} gm ese
[09:19] {fish_49} I say No
[09:19] {fish_49} but it will go right up to the wire
01[09:19] {&Threei}  that's how it usually went
[09:19] {ese} morning fish
01[09:19] {&Threei}  but they seem to run out of time this time
[09:20] {fish_49} yea  I think The dems win this time and the Republicans cave in last minute  to live to fight another day
[09:21] {nemo} the republicans can't win the shutdown fight...never have
[09:24] {jdetente} yeah this is a no win for the repubs
[09:24] {ese} one hell of a bureaucracy you guys got goin down there
[09:24] {+cc_9} good morning all
[09:24] {jdetente} They win, they lose. They lose, they lose. hehe
[09:24] {ese} cc
[09:24] {nemo} every government is one helluva bureaucracy
01[09:25] {&Threei}  cc :)
[09:25] {jdetente} but at least Obama has our best interests at heart
[09:25] {fish_49} lol
[09:25] {fish_49} and your money in his wallet
[09:25] {ese} true enough nemo
[09:25] {+cc_9} here is what they will do : act as if they are not agreeing, last minute they will delay a provision to "change" "obamacare" for 1 year so they can say "see, we negotiated"
[09:26] {fish_49} IMHO no 1 year delay
01[09:26] {&Threei}  ironically as it is, the guy elected to advance equality, presided over the biggest in history money transfer away from middle class
[09:26] {jdetente} so true
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
[09:26] {dino} well, his version of equality differs from yours
01[09:26] {&Threei}  alex :)
01[09:27] {&Threei}  obviously dino, lol
[09:27] {fish_49} it's like watching the bears and bulls fight ..  I want to be on the right side of the trade when the blood clean up crew comes in
[09:28] {drewj} gm
01[09:28] {&Threei}  drew :)
[09:28] {ese} drew
[09:28] {fish_49} GM Drew
[09:29] {drewj} hi guys...good weekend?
01[09:29] {&Threei}  this is going to be one of those push me pull me days
[09:29] {nemo} pushmepullyou
[09:29] {nemo} sheesh...get your Dr. Doolittle straight
01[09:29] {&Threei}  when each new word from one of congress idiots can send markey up or down in a hurry
01[09:30] {&Threei}  so let's be careful and don't commit too much
[09:30] {nemo} 167.20 is spy S4 daily
01[09:30] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDL  .80 break hl
[09:30] {nemo} 167.16 is the weekly S2
01[09:30] {&Threei}  GLD
01[09:31] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:31] {+cc_9} GMCr long 71.50 starter
[09:31] {+cc_9} target 72.50+
01[09:32] {&Threei}  meh
[09:32] {+cc_9} GMCR } $72.00
[09:32] {cipher} +.35 GMCR thx cc
[09:33] {+cc_9} nice cipher
[09:34] {cipher} IRBT l.50
01[09:37] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  128 break
01[09:37] {&Threei}  hl again
[09:39] {+cc_9} Out GMCR 72.55 +$1.05, beautiful start
[09:39] {+cc_9} lovely lovely lovely stock
01[09:39] {&Threei}  wtg
[09:39] {fish_49} congrats CC
[09:39] {+cc_9} thank you
[09:41] {ese} nice one cc
[09:41] {dino} out irbt +.30 ty cipher
[09:41] {cipher} out IRBT .07 +.57
[09:41] {cipher} gj dino
[09:42] {+cc_9} GMCR pushing $73 now
01[09:42] {&Threei}  stop .08
[09:43] {ese} LVS raised to 77 at Atlantic Equities
[09:43] {+cc_9} Not a great exit on GMCR, but consolation in the bottom entry
[09:43] {ese} that your firm nemo
01[09:43] {&Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {ese} from 66
01[09:44] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:45] {&Threei}  *(US) SEPT CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 55.7 V 54E (4-MONTH HIGH)
[09:45] {robbers} Out, thanks.
01[09:45] {&Threei}  yw
01[09:45] {&Threei}  lol, missed exit copying numbers
[09:45] {fish_49} you think that is what caused that push up?
01[09:46] {&Threei}  doesn't look this way to me
[09:46] {+cc_9} fish, i think just technical bounce, i don't think they will have an obvious reversal in the markets today, maybe tomorrow
[09:46] {cipher} REGN s.313.91
[09:46] {ese} maybe that and market finally realised they had a panic attack and are now correcting
[09:46] {fish_49} ty CC
[09:46] {cipher} REGN almost $15 runup
[09:47] {fish_49} that was one hell of a gap this am
[09:47] {ese} if your looking for over reaction city fish this is the place to find it
[09:47] {ese} the stupidity that goes on here sometimes is un imaginable
01[09:48] {&Threei}  "here" as in...?
01[09:48] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  48 break hl
01[09:48] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:48] {ese} the market
[09:48] {fish_49} I think he means  Nemo?
[09:48] {fish_49} oh the market
[09:48] {fish_49} lol
[09:53] {Alexs} C valid?
[09:53] {dino} pru sm l .01
01[09:54] {&Threei}  no
01[09:54] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .10 break
01[09:54] {&Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:55] {drewj} still hl?
[09:55] {dino} bofi sm l .60 thin
01[09:55] {&Threei}  no, with such small stop full
01[10:00] {&Threei}  meh
[10:06] {+cc_9} SPY back to session highs
[10:06] {dino} out pru .31, +.30
[10:06] {nemo} 50 day around 168.20
01[10:09] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MET  .65 break
01[10:09] {&Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:12] {cipher} REGN s.318.64
[10:14] {+cc_9} oh god...HLF, why
[10:14] {+cc_9} This is the kind of move I was looking for with GMCR...
[10:15] {+cc_9} HLF 67 to 70 straight up
01[10:15] {&Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): "The House has done its work," the Senate should pass the House bill to delay the Affordable care act (ACA, Obamacare) and repeal the medical device tax
[10:18] {fish_49} the market likes that news
01[10:19] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .10 break
01[10:19] {&Threei}  If holds  25
[10:19] {+cc_9} fish, what I meant earlier by 1 year delay
[10:19] {+cc_9} its not the law they will try to delay
[10:20] {+cc_9} they will delay their "provision" to "fight" the "law" for 1 year
[10:20] {+cc_9} to "save" (orange) "face"
[10:20] {ese} anybody on this board go long cgix when it was say 12 to 14 bucks
[10:20] {dino} wprt l .30
[10:20] {ese} in 3 days your 10 to 12 bucks up
[10:21] {dino} ese, no but shorted it friday 20.85 to 19.90s
[10:22] {dino} crazy trader, careful w/it, moves in .50 trades
[10:22] {ese} whoa....good short
[10:23] {ese} not gonna do anything with it.......have just been observing it since last thursday
[10:25] {ese} "The House has done its work," hmmmmmmmmmm......it's in gods hands now
[10:26] {RonS} guess they agree w/ O supporters that he is god...
01[10:26] {&Threei}  lol
[10:26] {dino} lol
01[10:26] {&Threei}  GDX 1:1
[10:30] {+cc_9} watching people getting killed shorting FB all morning...
[10:30] {ese} dallas fed way up
[10:30] {ese} 12.8 v 5.0
[10:30] {cipher} SDS l .56
01[10:31] {&Threei}  MET stop to .59
[10:31] {+cc_9} scalp i hope cipher
01[10:32] {&Threei}  look at the components ese
01[10:32] {&Threei}  Production: 11.5 v 7.3 prior - Capacity Utilization: 10.7 v 4.6 prior - New orders 5.0 v 5.4 prior - New order growth rate 0.9 v 2.2 prior - Shipments 10.3 v 11.4 prior - Raw materials prices paid 17.6 v 10.0 prior - Wages and benefits 9.7 v 14.5 prior - Employment 10 v 11.2 prior
01[10:32] {&Threei}  this is horrible numbers
01[10:33] {&Threei}  catastrophic would be better word
[10:34] {cipher} cov REGN 316.51 +2.13
[10:34] {ese} just saw original number
01[10:34] {&Threei}  and that's how this whole "recovery" is sold - glistering numbers on the surface, rust and dirt under the hood
[10:35] {RonS} gj cipher
01[10:35] {&Threei}  New order growth rate 0.9 v 2.2
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Shipments 10.3 v 11.4 prior
[10:35] {fish_49} numbers are confusing   Production up but orders down
01[10:35] {&Threei}  so where does the good number come from?
01[10:35] {&Threei}  here:
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Raw materials prices paid 17.6 v 10.0 prior
01[10:35] {&Threei}  and here:
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Wages and benefits 9.7 v 14.5 prior - Employment 10 v 11.2 prior
01[10:35] {&Threei}  prices are up, wages and employment are down
[10:36] {fish_49} costing more to produce and producing without orders
01[10:36] {&Threei}  great economic number is presented, because manufacturer charges more and pays less
[10:36] {fish_49} Finished goods inventories will be out of whack
01[10:36] {&Threei}  see now what I meant in the morning saying "huge wealth transfer"?
01[10:37] {&Threei}  and the ridiculous thing is that left applauds it - the same left that was always for equality
[10:37] {fish_49} the markets not reacting to those numbers
01[10:37] {&Threei}  nothing is what it seems
01[10:37] {&Threei}  MET 1:1
[10:37] {fish_49} maybe it's good news? delayed tapering?  lol
[10:37] {ese} somebody lied to me............whos responsible for that..........come on now....fess up eh!
01[10:38] {&Threei}  we are all getting lied to all our life
01[10:38] {&Threei}  it's just that some choose to believe
01[10:38] {&Threei}  and some open the hood and look under it
01[10:39] {&Threei}  fish, at this point market doesn't care about those things - govt shutdown possibility is a bigger, ummm, fish to fry
[10:40] {fish_49} Sad
[10:41] {fish_49} but I'm ok with it...
[10:41] {nemo} grindup to gap close
[10:41] {+cc_9} see again, SPY slow and steady bounce
[10:42] {+cc_9} dismal volume, but its being bought
[10:42] {cipher} REGN L 317.35
[10:42] {nemo} all indexes
[10:42] {cipher} out 318.09 +.74
[10:43] {RonS} took bofi .55 out 64.15 +.60  thanks dino
[10:43] {cipher} SDS stopped .53 -.03
[10:43] {ese} ok dino i went small cgix at 21.01 400shs...put a limit order in....didn't want to make call on the board because this one was a scary proposition am out .60
[10:43] {ese} tks for the advice was surprised it got filled
[10:44] {RonS} lol...you post late anyway...would not have mattered...jus sayin...
[10:44] {ese} look at that spread now ....for a couple of seconds almost 90 cents
[10:45] {RonS} oh and btw gj ese
[10:46] {ese} lol
[10:47] {cipher} SDS L .50
[10:48] {+cc_9} GMCR the gift that keeps on giving
[10:50] {ese} you can join me on tibx ron if you want posted that last week for a swing trade at .51, you can get in .33 cheaper if you want......i'm long 2500shs of it
[10:51] {dino} gj ron on bofi
[10:51] {dino} gj es
[10:52] {ese} call that one bull s**t dino......I have no skill with those
[10:52] {ese} plain and simple luck there
[10:52] {dino} luck is part of it
[10:52] {ese} i guess
[10:53] {RonS} 1.  willingness to throw the crap against the wall 2.  luck that it will stick....
[10:54] {RonS} 3.  having a stop if it doesn't...
[10:54] {ese} do you just kinda figure out a price range or something with a stock like that......cause how can you actually guage price momentum with spreads from anywhere upwards of 30 cents
[10:55] {ese} question for you there dino
01[10:55] {&Threei}  lol ron
[10:56] {dino} price range, try to short around high, can't at bids they are too far apart
[10:56] {ese} ya for sure....understatement on that one
[10:57] {dino} takes patience on entry
[10:57] {ese} do you limit order those
[10:57] {RonS} poor patience...
[10:57] {dino} out bofi .25, +.65
[10:57] {ese} look at the price now almost .40
[10:58] {RonS} wtg
[10:58] {ese} nice one
[10:58] {dino} always limit ese, otherwise you are filling way out there
[10:58] {cipher} out SDS .54 +.04
[10:59] {dino} read that wrong, thought mkt was dropping
[10:59] {ese} Ron....ya missed tibx entry at .25 2500shs up .12 now
[11:02] {ese} have you ever done a mrkt order with a thinly traded one dino
[11:04] {ese} sacre blu.......the only problem with tibx is that i'm gonna have to wait a few more days for some profit......this is not good
[11:04] {dino} no, you will get filled too far away from limit
[11:08] {+cc_9} GMCR @ session highs
[11:11] {cipher} REGN s.318.52
[11:15] {cipher} cov 316.06 +2.46
[11:15] {dino} gj
[11:15] {cipher} can I have ny SDS back pls?
[11:15] {nemo} wow, facebook is actually pulling in
[11:16] {cipher} ok enuogh stress I'm out
[11:16] {cipher} cya tomorrow
01[11:16] {&Threei}  take care cipher
[11:18] {RonS} cipher needs name change...pese?
[11:18] {fish_49} have a great day Cipher
[11:18] {RonS} pre-ese...
[11:18] {nemo} whatsa' matter with cipher?
01[11:18] {&Threei}  our yesterday's wind strom, look at about 22 seconds mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VheTggEGgR4
01[11:18] {&Threei}  and 40
[11:18] {dino} gj cipher
[11:18] {RonS} nemo, couldn't stomach maiking a bunch of money...
[11:18] {RonS} making
[11:18] {+cc_9} BAM look @ that ponzi line today
[11:19] {+cc_9} (BAM is actually the ticker)
[11:19] {fish_49} ouch
[11:20] {fish_49} that looks cold
[11:20] {RonS} nah...reaction like a soldier after a furiously defended assault...
[11:21] {RonS} guy lives through it them goes into shellshock realizing he could have been killed...
[11:22] {RonS} happens all th time...
[11:22] {RonS} why 3i emphasizes removing emotions...
01[11:22] {&Threei}  surgically
[11:23] {RonS} ese did that...
[11:24] {RonS} replaced balls with brass...
[11:24] {RonS} side benefit is he can use them as part of drum set...
[11:26] {RonS} have not learned how to access emoticons in mirc or would put up smiley face...
[11:26] {RonS} dino mnst...migt be bottom fish candidate...
[11:27] {RonS} might
01[11:27] {&Threei}  just hit colon and shift-0
[11:27] {nemo} I wish they had a middle finger emoticon
[11:27] {RonS} lol
01[11:28] {&Threei}  mindset of entitlement:
[11:28] {RonS} ;)...lol...well that was roket science...
01[11:28] {&Threei}  windstorm causes ferry cancellations,
01[11:28] {&Threei}  island is essentially cut of for the day,
01[11:28] {&Threei}  guy posts on FB:
[11:29] {RonS} ugh bofi
01[11:29] {&Threei}  Boooo! I need to be on the mainland this evening, what kind of whimps run those ferries? Someone must do something!
[11:30] {fish_49} how long is the swim?
01[11:30] {&Threei}  by ferry? or personally?
[11:30] {fish_49} he said he has to be back this eve...  Looks like he will be getting wet
01[11:30] {&Threei}  ferry, 1 h 35 m... personally, about 5 min, I don't expect anyone to live longer than than
[11:30] {RonS} who wants to be killer whale bait?
01[11:31] {&Threei}  wind reaches 70 mph on the shore, probably more in the open waters
01[11:31] {&Threei}  idiot moans about ferry cancellations
01[11:32] {&Threei}  - Political crisis in Washington, DC and in Italy are hammering global equity markets this morning. Equities are making up for steep pre-market
01[11:32] {&Threei}  - In Italy, ministers affiliated with Berlusconi's center-right party resigned from the ruling coalition after budget talks broke down on Friday
01[11:33] {&Threei}  - In the US, the Senate is scheduled to convene at 14:00ET and Majority Leader Reid is expected to move quickly to vote on House CR funding bill. A shutdown remains very possible depending on whether or not the House returns an alternative proposal, perhaps that only strips the medical device tax from Obamacare, for funding the government.
[11:34] {RonS} sheesh, what about the new tax on medical insurance...
[11:34] {fish_49} medical device tax needs to go..  they all agree but using it as a tool
[11:35] {RonS} layoffs have already happend...who cares but those in those districts...?
[11:36] {RonS} ayk...zmh
[11:36] {RonS} syk
[11:53] {+cc_9} FB IH&S if breaks 50.90
[11:57] {nemo} fb looks long right here
[11:58] {nemo} IWM closed the gap
01[11:58] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .40 break
01[11:58] {&Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:59] {+cc_9} GMCR boom
[12:02] {ese} am outta see you tomorrow my tibx swing is doing fine
[12:04] {+cc_9} FB closing in on that IH&S
01[12:09] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .25 break
01[12:09] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:14] {drewj} vad...i keep having trouble placing orders.  It is saying that the route is disabled
01[12:14] {&Threei}  cc9 is the one to ask on this kind
[12:15] {drewj} do know cc?
01[12:16] {&Threei}  meh
[12:16] {jdetente} bah humbug
[12:18] {+cc_9} Drew, don't use BATS
[12:18] {+cc_9} use ARCA/POST for now
[12:19] {drewj} thanks...where do i make that change in nonko trader?
[12:20] {+cc_9} In the order entry on the montage
[12:21] {drewj} i've got 5 different options that are similar to your suggestion...
[12:22] {drewj} which arca do you suggest?
[12:25] {+cc_9} use ARCAL for limit (or LIMIT default will set you up automatically on ARCAL), POSTM for market orders.
[12:25] {+cc_9} what is your account ID Drew
[12:26] {drewj} NTRD441
[12:26] {+cc_9} Ok, are you able to see the other routes within the drop down ?
[12:27] {drewj} yes
[12:27] {+cc_9} Ok, send a test trade with ARCAL for a limit order and/or POSTM for a market order
[12:28] {+cc_9} you should get smooth fills. BATS for some reason is being lame today
[12:28] {drewj} maybe that's why.
[12:28] {drewj} how do i send a test order?
[12:28] {+cc_9} its a regular order, but use 100 shares on say BAC
[12:28] {drewj} oh
01[12:28] {&Threei}  just do it away from market
[12:29] {drewj} ok
01[12:29] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .05 break
01[12:29] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:30] {dino} icpt sm s .65
[12:30] {+cc_9} Drew, you used INET
[12:31] {+cc_9} which is also fine...
[12:31] {drewj} cc9 it was just bats...it seems to be rejecting all my orders
[12:31] {+cc_9} yes, its BATS, rest are fine.
[12:31] {+cc_9} INET/POST/ARCA/EDGX all are good.
[12:31] {drewj} ok...thanks
[12:31] {+cc_9} you can even go all out pirate mode and use NQBX, but dont need to.
[12:32] {dino} cov .20, -.50 wtf
[12:32] {drewj} why a pirate cc?
[12:32] {RonS} edgx sucks imo...fidelity orders default to that...seen many instances of other exchange fills before edgx
[12:34] {+cc_9} Ron, there is also EDGA, if X is no good
[12:34] {drewj} cc do you work at nonko?
[12:34] {+cc_9} Drew, NQBX is considered an "exotic" route
[12:35] {+cc_9} Drew yes
[12:35] {drewj} who else works at nonko?
[12:35] {+cc_9} cc_1, cc_2, cc_3 all the way to cc_10
[12:36] {+cc_9} (this is a joke)
[12:36] {drewj} good
[12:36] {nemo} not really, they're actually Borg
[12:36] {+cc_9} We have guys who do the back-office, trader support, reporting, b/d and clear etc...
[12:36] {+cc_9} I just do the bad jokes in Vad's room
[12:36] {RonS} cc_rider?
[12:36] {drewj} nice
[12:37] {nemo} Ron, having flashbacks?
[12:37] {+cc_9} And i throw bones like GMCR ;)
[12:37] {drewj} seems to work well for you
[12:37] {+cc_9} and you if you catch them :)
[12:38] {drewj} first i will catch vads...later others
[12:39] {+cc_9} that's the spirit.
[12:42] {+cc_9} GMCR @ Friday's closing price.
[12:44] {+cc_9} Looks good for a swing even, i think this is interim bottom on 60min
[12:56] {+cc_9} GMCR $3.50 from initial call this AM. brb, going to cry
[12:57] {RonS} take clean handkerchef...
[12:57] {jdetente} where was your last exit GMCR?
01[12:58] {&Threei}  I disagree... that would make it dirty. Take the one that is dirty already and cry in it
[12:58] {+cc_9} My first GMCR trade tgt was 72.50
[12:59] {+cc_9} second trade went back in on the slowdown at 10:30AM for about 72.70 and got out 73.25
[12:59] {+cc_9} should have gotten back on the 11:15 dip area, but said the hell with it
[12:59] {+cc_9} GMCR is extremely oversold on 60min, this is why I kept trading it each day for the past week
[13:13] {nemo} Guess his ferry duties are over for the morning
[13:18] {jdetente} any news on this move?
[13:18] {jdetente} or just same ol same ol
[13:19] {+cc_9} Breaking News : BTFD
[13:19] {jdetente} of course
01[13:20] {&Threei}  (US) Senate Republicans are now said to be discussing a one-week spending extension
[13:20] {jdetente} spending spree??
[13:20] {jdetente} hehe
[13:21] {fish_49} kick the can into next week so we can do this again
01[13:21] {&Threei}  (US) President Obama: Have not resigned to a a Govt shutdown happening as the Senate will allow further negotiations on a long term budget ageement that would not shut the Govt down- Everyone in the US Govt must sit down in good faith and not under the threat of US debt default - Ton continue discussions with Congressional leaders through Wednesday.
01[13:22] {&Threei}  (US) Labor Dept: We will not release NFP jobs report on Friday, Oct 4th in the event of a government shutdown**REMINDER: On Friday other agencies noted the impact of a potential shutdown: Commerce Dept confirms that no economic data will be released in the event of a govt shutdown; Labor Dept will continue to issue jobless data if the govt shuts down. US Treasury issues its contingency plans in the event of a Govt shutdown: US mint to operate normally in the event of a govt shutdown; Treasury would stop tax processing activities; Treasury borrowing and debt programs will continue normally.
01[13:23] {&Threei}  I don't know about shutdown but I start really wishing for them to shut up
[13:23] {fish_49} lol
[13:27] {+cc_9} GMCR nonstop, regardless of market direction
[13:28] {drewj} is this a good day to take off early?
[13:28] {RonS} might be every day?
[13:28] {drewj} true
[13:29] {jdetente} let nemo take a few more shots at your first
[13:29] {dino} afternoons have been slow
[13:29] {jdetente} I'm bored...
[13:29] {dino} same here jd
[13:29] {drewj} he can take a few at you too then...
[13:30] {jdetente} of course that goes with the territory
[13:30] {+cc_9} GMCR } $76
01[13:31] {&Threei}  - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and the Senate Republican Conference are gauging whether there is enough support to pass a one-week stop-gap measure
[13:31] {jdetente} should've picked up some shares earlier...jeez
01[13:32] {&Threei}  they are like that dog owner who loved his dog very much, so he cut his tail in portions, not to traumatize the animal by one time large cut
[13:32] {jdetente} now they're going to regrow new tail
[13:32] {jdetente} so they can do it again next year
[13:32] {fish_49} next meeting at 2 pm
[13:33] {+cc_9} GMCR short covering here, volume pretty high vs Thursday/Friday
[13:38] {+cc_9} GMCR volume increasing on 15min :)
[13:42] {+cc_9} GMCR crushing anyone short this AM
01[13:43] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MET  .10 break
01[13:43] {&Threei}  If holds  47
[13:54] {jdetente} jiminy cricket
[13:58] {RonS} pinnochio
[13:59] {jdetente} gepetto
[14:02] {+cc_9} ok so we shut down tonight, nice.
[14:02] {+cc_9} I wonder why this is news
01[14:03] {&Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Would not support a 1 week continuning resolution (CR)
[14:05] {fish_49} voting now right?
01[14:06] {&Threei}  I think so
[14:06] {+cc_9} Yes, http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
[14:06] {+cc_9} Going back long light GMCR 74.85
[14:06] {fish_49} cc do you watch that online?
[14:06] {+cc_9} will try to sell 75.50 if market does not all out crash
[14:06] {+cc_9} You can watch it online yes
[14:06] {fish_49} I watch it on a different pc
[14:07] {fish_49} it caused problems on my trading pc
[14:07] {fish_49} but my question is ...  what is the commercial all about?
[14:07] {+cc_9} once commercial over, you watch bloomberg TV
[14:07] {+cc_9} nothing is free in this world
[14:08] {fish_49} same advertisement all day  over and over but not sure what it's about
[14:08] {fish_49} I will ping you
[14:08] {fish_49} no need you pinged me already
[14:08] {fish_49} I will follow up with an email
[14:08] {fish_49} no need  etc...
[14:08] {+cc_9} ...huh ?
[14:09] {fish_49} perhaps I get a different advertisement
[14:09] {+cc_9} lol who cares about the adv...
[14:09] {fish_49} just asking
01[14:09] {&Threei}  (US) S&P comments on US sovereign rating; debate on debt ceiling unlikely to change the AA+ rating- Notes no adjustment will be made as long as the disagreement is only in the short term - Reiterates that the original 2011 downgrade was a result of political brinksmanship - Failure to raise the debt ceiling is not our base case assumption
[14:10] {fish_49} the market rallied after the downgrade didn't it?
[14:10] {+cc_9} are you getting the "lucky strike with the help of GE" commercial Fish ?
[14:11] {+cc_9} bad news = good news = just keep buying, dont ask questions lol
[14:11] {+cc_9} if you ask questions about such things as "why is the market going up", you might be labeled a terrorist
01[14:15] {&Threei}  oh, that's why I always dismiss this kind of questions
[14:18] {+cc_9} GMCR needs to break that 75.20 wall
[14:19] {+cc_9} tight range here
[14:21] {fish_49} Bill back to house  Senate rejected it
01[14:21] {&Threei}  (US) Senate votes to reject the House spending plan; as expected- Bill heads back to the House to vote on whether to keep the Govt open
[14:22] {jdetente} no surprises
01[14:22] {&Threei}  game of high bet poker continues
[14:22] {jdetente} best game of chicken eve
[14:22] {jdetente} ever
[14:22] {fish_49} Dems have nothing to lose
[14:22] {fish_49} they hold the better hand
[14:23] {fish_49} they have their stop at break even
[14:23] {jdetente} they always win these kinds of fights...even if they lose
[14:25] {dino} liberal media backs them no matter what
[14:26] {fish_49} tvery true Dino
[14:26] {fish_49} now the house is thinking  Hmmm do we want to work late tonight? lets just give in  lol
01[14:34] {&Threei}  it's kind of expected but still, don't you find it sad state of affairs when the only consideration in everyone's head is, how will it play out for the 2014 election, and not how it qwill play out for the country?
[14:35] {fish_49} your right Vad
[14:35] {fish_49} but the reason why nobody is asking that question is because it has become business as usual for our government
[14:35] {+cc_9} out GMCR 75.25 +$0.40
[14:36] {+cc_9} lovely!!!!!!!!
01[14:36] {&Threei}  I know... it's just...
[14:36] {fish_49} and as for the 2014 vote?  people forget real fast as long as economy is doing well during election time
[14:37] {fish_49} Reid now saying  hahaha  Republicans  try again  and if we shut down remember it's the republicans fault
[14:37] {fish_49} lol
01[14:38] {&Threei}  whole thing turned into the game of who will be able to pass the plame on other side more effectively
[14:38] {fish_49} yep
01[14:39] {&Threei}  reminds me a conversation with a high level appartchik in the late 80s or beginning of 90s...
[14:39] {jdetente} plame for all of them if you ask me
[14:40] {fish_49} But what Reid says is a bomb when he says  you want us to fund the government for a week?
01[14:40] {&Threei}  he was muzing about all the possible options of transition to business, via KGB line or Comsomol line, or sport orgazation... and talking about a,ll the implications of the wrong choice,
[14:40] {fish_49} they will make that their propaganda
01[14:41] {&Threei}  at some point when conversation revolved for the third time around what layer of society will get what etc,
01[14:42] {&Threei}  I asked "Listem... everyone in your cicrles thinks abput these things, discusses them?"
01[14:42] {&Threei}  he said yeah, pretty much, everyone with head on the shoulders
01[14:42] {&Threei}  I asked "what about the country?'
01[14:43] {&Threei}  He looked at me with this sudden shocked expression, then said: Country? Oh, country is f)(&ed
01[14:44] {&Threei}  that was pretty much a given for them, no one even thought about it
01[14:47] {&Threei}  @TheTweetOfGod
01[14:47] {&Threei}  American government is of the people, by the people and for the people. Which begs the question: what is wrong with you people?
[14:48] {fish_49} used to be for the people
[14:49] {nemo} spy iwm and finnies walking a nice channel
[14:50] {+cc_9} GMCr nice come back from sub $75.00 pickup
[14:51] {+cc_9} cracking .20 wall
[14:52] {+cc_9} P&L today on all tickers discussed }}} http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6093/4jpx.JPG
[14:52] {+cc_9} $60 shy from goal, but its Monday.
[14:53] {fish_49} CC thanks for sharing that
[14:54] {+cc_9} np
[14:54] {fish_49} It answers a question I have had for awhile.
01[14:54] {&Threei}  stop with excuses, will ya
[14:54] {+cc_9} sorry vad :(
01[14:54] {&Threei}  Monday or no Monday, short of goal is short of goal
[14:54] {+cc_9} what was the Q fish
[14:54] {+cc_9} ok, let me get that $60 on this SSO drop ;)
01[14:54] {&Threei}  and those $60 is unforgivable
[14:54] {+cc_9} ugh
[14:55] {fish_49} What is appropriate for share count on most trades
01[14:55] {&Threei}  wither get them or don't even think of showing us those shameful screenshots
01[14:56] {&Threei}  but I'll be fair and admit that it's $57.15 that you have to get
01[14:56] {&Threei}  which is still inexcusable
[14:56] {+cc_9} fish, it depends, SSO is a slow mover, so can feel comfortable starting with 500/1000
[14:56] {+cc_9} GMCR for example kinda wacky, start with 300 is good.
[14:56] {+cc_9} UVXY same, 300 starter bc fast mover
[14:57] {+cc_9} TNA 300-500 is ok to start with
01[14:57] {&Threei}  but $2.85 less inexcusable than $60
[14:58] {+cc_9} lol.
[14:59] {Alexs} GLD short .30?
01[15:00] {&Threei}  I think so
01[15:00] {&Threei}  certainly worth a try
01[15:00] {&Threei}  stop for now is above .40 but can be trailed faster than 1:1
[15:00] {Alexs} k
[15:02] {nemo} well, gotta' leave early...gonna' go poison some minds
[15:03] {Alexs} trail to .38?
[15:03] {+cc_9} Lets call them now
[15:03] {+cc_9} EOD :
[15:03] {+cc_9} 1) sell off
[15:03] {+cc_9} 2) sideways
[15:03] {+cc_9} 3) rally
[15:03] {+cc_9} call em !
01[15:03] {&Threei}  I'd prefer it tolose .25 before trailing
[15:04] {Alexs} k
01[15:04] {&Threei}  my choice is selloff
[15:04] {fish_49} I say sell off but not breaking the LOD
01[15:05] {&Threei}  (US) House Republicans planning to put forth spending legislation to delay the individual mandate by 1 year (i.e. seeking to delay one aspect of Obamacare)- House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Rep Issa (D-CA): New house bill will require President Obama and other Administration officials to sign up for Obamacare coverage, and cancel subsidies for Congressional members health plans. - Follow up 14:49ET: Senate Majority Leader Reid: will reject the latest House stopgap spending proposal. "Our negotiation is over," the House must pass the clean spending bill.
[15:05] {+cc_9} I grabbed some SSO on this drop so I can get my damn $60 already
[15:06] {+cc_9} (Vad pressured me into making this trade, if it does not work, u know who to blame)
01[15:06] {&Threei}  well, you are still 58.14 short
01[15:06] {&Threei}  15
01[15:07] {&Threei}  and if you are allowed to remain short today, tomorrow everyone is short
01[15:07] {&Threei}  and Yuri The KneeCupShooter will have to work overtume
01[15:08] {&Threei}  and to pay for his overtime, Ivan the Enforcer will have to be summoned
[15:09] {+cc_9} SPY @ bottom of intraday range
[15:11] {+cc_9} Jesus christ CNN with the dramatic images : http://www.cnn.com/
[15:11] {+cc_9} First it was picture of Capitol Hill with dark clouds above it
[15:11] {+cc_9} then it was the Statue of Liberty in nightime
[15:11] {+cc_9} now its a pair of shoes over a cliff
[15:11] {+cc_9} next probably pic of someone hanging
01[15:12] {&Threei}  lol
[15:13] {+cc_9} Bloomberg "Wall St. banks are set to meet with President Obama on Wednesday"
01[15:13] {&Threei}  any brown envelopes involved?
[15:14] {+cc_9} no, just ice tea and skittles
[15:15] {jdetente} the 24 hour news cycle just loves this drama
01[15:15] {&Threei}  that's kind of weird for the folks who consider lobster a cold cuts for the sandwich
01[15:18] {&Threei}  countdown clock on the TV screen
01[15:18] {&Threei}  evertyhing is ruined
01[15:18] {&Threei}  8:40 min left
01[15:19] {&Threei}  throw women and children overboard
[15:19] {jdetente} I say they push the DOW below 15k before EOD
[15:21] {+cc_9} i think we see a lil pop to 168 first
[15:22] {fish_49} 167.94 CC
[15:22] {fish_49} lol
[15:23] {+cc_9} Ok Vad/Fish, I dedicate this one to you
[15:23] {+cc_9} Goal reached (SSO trade) }}} http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6901/pm3l.jpg
[15:23] {+cc_9} :D
01[15:24] {&Threei}  OK
01[15:24] {&Threei}  now you are in the clear
[15:24] {+cc_9} phew
[15:24] {jdetente} go have your milk and cookies
06[15:24] * &Threei holsters the weapon
[15:24] {fish_49} you exceeded.  Can Alex and I share the excess?
06[15:24] * &Threei signals Youri to stand down
[15:25] {+cc_9} let me see where im @ after commission
[15:25] {+cc_9} I give myself the same commission as everyone else so its fair
[15:25] {+cc_9} no house advantage.
01[15:25] {&Threei}  what kind of house is that
[15:26] {fish_49} lets go to Vegas with those house rules
[15:26] {+cc_9} 16,200 shares, $0.005 rate = $81 in commission
[15:26] {+cc_9} Gross is $1,085
[15:26] {+cc_9} Ending the day with $1,004 lol
01[15:26] {&Threei}  even house of representatives gives itself an advantage
[15:26] {+cc_9} 4 bucks shy from being called names
01[15:26] {&Threei}  lol
[15:26] {fish_49} spy turned away at .95  I was a penny off
[15:31] {+cc_9} Nice trading here guys, see you all tomorrow.
[15:31] {fish_49} take care CC good job
[15:31] {fish_49} c you have pm
01[15:31] {&Threei}  take care cc9
[15:31] {fish_49} cc u have pm
[15:32] {fish_49} gone
[15:32] {fish_49} lol
01[15:32] {&Threei}  ok GLD, die
[15:32] {Alexs} got stopped
[15:33] {RonS} thanks for sharing...
01[15:36] {&Threei}  1:1
01[15:37] {&Threei}  I didn't see Level 2 going over .40
[15:37] {Alexs} 15:29
01[15:37] {&Threei}  did I sleep through it or was it out of bounds print?
01[15:37] {&Threei}  I see it on the chart, didn't see offer going there on Level 2
01[15:39] {&Threei}  have you been watching it Alex, or set automated stop?
[15:40] {Alexs} yes, I've seen it got ot at.40
[15:40] {Alexs} out
01[15:41] {&Threei}  I slept through it then
[15:42] {Alexs} good for you )
01[15:42] {&Threei}  well, not really
[15:43] {Alexs} lol
01[15:43] {&Threei}  what if proceeded higher :)
[15:43] {fish_49} then you would be asking CC for a loan
01[15:43] {&Threei}  although it was probably a very brief sleep, lol
[15:45] {fish_49} shorts covering? why the big push up
[15:45] {fish_49} ?
01[15:47] {&Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Clean spending bill will not happen; need to remove individual mandate in Obamacare as well as exemptions for members of Congress
01[15:48] {&Threei}  (US) House Rep King (R-NY): Republican party has been hijacked by Ted Cruz; will not support the Republican spending bill -
[15:48] {dino} mygn drop
[15:50] {dino} hl l .55
[15:53] {drewj} ok guys...have a good evening.
[15:53] {fish_49} take care all
01[15:54] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:54] {&Threei}  see you tomorrow, with or without the government
[15:59] {dino} out mygn flat, not enough time
[16:00] {dino} gn

Friday, September 27, 2013

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Looming US Budget and Debt Ceiling Battles Drive Risk-Off Tone in Markets


- The DJIA and S&P500 have moved steadily lower since the Fed decided not to reduce QE asset purchase at the FOMC meeting last Wednesday. As market participants reoriented themselves toward the possibility of an October or December taper this week, members of Congress managed not to remove the possibility of a government shutdown when the fiscal year ends on September 30th or resolve the upcoming debt ceiling issue. Risk has come off and bond yields have reversed course thanks to the political uncertainty, with the yield on the 10-year UST closing out the week around 2.62%, versus 2.73% last Friday and 2.88% two weeks ago. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany is working to form a new government after elections, while Italy is struggling to prevent a government crisis of its own. US economic data was mixed: the September Markit PMI index retreated to 52.8 this month from 53.1 in August, with a slowdown seen in the key new orders and employment components; the August durables orders were essentially unchanged and August new home sales rebounded from a dip lower in July. Russia, the US and the western powers made steady progress towards implementing the Syria chemical weapons accord through a UN resolution, while newly elected Iranian President Rohani made more conciliatory but symbolic gestures, raising hopes of further detente with the US. WTI crude declined to around $102, its lowest level since early August. For the week, the DJIA lost 1.3% and the S&P500 fell 1.1%, while the Nasdaq added 0.2%.

- Washington, DC was entertained by Senator Cruz's quixotic "filibuster" this week, however the reality that the Democratic-controlled Senate would pass a short-term funding bill without defunding Obamacare was not lost on anybody. On the other side of Capitol Hill, the House Republican leadership appeared powerless to control the conservative wing of the House, who are gunning for a battle over the debt ceiling, although as of writing it remains unclear whether or not the House will risk a government shutdown or wait for the debt ceiling battle in its quest for fiscal responsibility. Note that earlier this week, Treasury Sec Lew said the extraordinary measures designed to keep government finances afloat would be exhausted by October 17th, and condemned calls for "prioritizing" payments as just "default by another name." As the Congressional Republicans continued to gamble with US creditworthiness, CDS for United States debt rose to highs not seen since the August 2011 debt ceiling crisis.

- The CDU/CSU won the German elections, giving Angela Merkel a third term as chancellor, as expected, however they fell five seats short of an outright majority. Merkel and her party need to team up with a new party to form a ruling coalition, given that former junior partner FDP did not achieve the 5% threshold needed to retain representation in the Bundestag. Talks with the SPD and possibly the Greens to build a new coalition are set to get underway shortly. The consensus view is that there will be very little change in German policy stemming from the election, although it is notable that the SPD is said to be asking for the finance ministry portfolio as the price of supporting Merkel. The revamped Bundestag is due to have its first sitting on October 22nd.

- The Italian political crisis surrounding attempts to oust former-PM Berlusconi from the Senate deepened this week. An Italian Senate panel voted on September 18th to strip Berlusconi's senate status and a cross-party Senate committee hearing on the matter has been tentatively scheduled for Oct 4th. Various members of the right-wing PDL party are threatening to resign and pull their party's support for the coalition government if the chamber takes the next step to banish Berlusconi. The parliament is trying to remedy the 2013 budget and pass a 2014 budget that keeps the deficit under the 3% euro zone threshold. These developments threaten to reignite the euro zone debt crisis.

- A press report out on Wednesday asserted that Walmart was reducing orders from suppliers because of mounting unsold inventory in the US. The company was said to be looking at reducing supplier orders for Q3 and Q4. Within a short time, Walmart issued a statement that the report was "misleading" and said it is constantly "managing" inventory levels. Key Walmart supplier Li & Fung issued a statement that they had not received any order cancellations from Walmart.

- Shares of Apple remain below $500 and lower than they were before the iPhone 5S/5C announcement. The company disclosed that first weekend sales of the two devices topped 9 million units, ahead of industry expectations of 5.5-6M. Jefferies offered skeptical commentary on Apple's numbers, noting that while the 5S is sold out, the 5C is not, estimating that of the 9 million sales, 4 million were 5S models and 5 million were 5C models, with half of the latter going into inventory, making the true first weekend sales 6.5M units.

- JP Morgan was the subject of conflicting reports on settlement talks over its various pending federal civil and criminal charges. Early this week, the DOJ reportedly rejected a $3 billion settlement offer from the bank, and by Wednesday there was talk the settlement price tag could be as much as $11B, including $7B in fines and $4B in consumer relief payments. Elsewhere in banking, there were reports that Citigroup saw a sharper-than-expected summer slowdown in fixed income sales, echoing earlier reports regarding Deutsche Bank and Leucadia unit Jefferies.

- Chinese internet firm Alibaba abandoned plans to list in Hong Kong this week and said it would seek an IPO on the NYSE. The move comes after the Hong Kong exchange refused to bend its rules against dual-class shareholding that would allow insiders to keep ironclad control over the company. Alibaba, which is run by a 28-member partner committee, insisted that it be allowed to continue to nominate a majority of its board of directors.

- Shares of JC Penny fell approximately 25% this week thanks to big new dilutive capital raise and fears for the firm's solvency. The company abruptly launched an 84M share offering on Friday after initially denying earlier in the week that conditions warranted raising liquidity. Penney also tried to deflect rumors that its supply chain may be in trouble, saying that it was starting to see greater predictability in its performance across many areas and that the company continues to pay vendors on time.

- The deepening political dysfunction in Washington, DC is keeping the greenback weak after the moves seen in the wake of the FOMC meeting last week. EUR/USD remains in a very tight range between 1.3460 and 1.3560. USD/JPY closed out the week back in the 98 handle after testing 99 earlier.

- In China, the PBoC raised red flags after making two aggressive funds injection this week, bring the total injections for the week to the highest level in two months. Analysts suggested that PBoC was simply meeting quarter-end and pre-holiday demand for funds (next week is the Golden Week holiday). On Monday the stronger than expected China September flash PMI reading marked the second month of expansion in the series and a six-month high.




TradeTheNews

Sept 27 2013

Perfect end to a very good week. 6 calls, 6 wins, 3 of them are 1:3. 5 winning days out of 5, and ending with such fireworks - is there better way to go to the weekend?


01[08:55] {&Threei}  Blackberry reports $965 million loss
01[08:55] {&Threei}  who could have seen this coming
[08:58] {fish_49} good thing it was not $966 million loss...
01[08:58] {&Threei}  yeah
[09:03] {cc_9} Happy Friday everyone.
[09:03] {cc_9} & gm
01[09:03] {&Threei}  morning cc_9
[09:03] {fish_49} morning  CC
[09:03] {cc_9} Looks like a fun day ahead.
[09:03] {fish_49} your bias on direction?
[09:04] {cc_9} btfd
[09:04] {cc_9} we tested 168.91 on SPY which was our last support from Wednesday, depends if we hold it @ the open.
[09:12] {dino} gm
01[09:12] {&Threei}  dino :)
[09:20] {Will49} gm
01[09:20] {&Threei}  will :)
01[09:21] {&Threei}  what is it gold is happy about this morning?
[09:21] {cc_9} JCP selling 930M worth of stock to fund its turn-around lol
[09:24] {drewj} gm all
01[09:25] {&Threei}  drew :0
01[09:25] {&Threei}  how's daughter?
[09:25] {cc_9} SPY flush
[09:25] {drewj} little virus...back to school today
[09:25] {cc_9} market just tanked
[09:25] {drewj} thanks for asking
01[09:25] {&Threei}  :)
01[09:25] {&Threei}  no news
[09:27] {ese} I'm here ...I'm here....let the bells ring let the banners fly....i'm here
[09:27] {Alexs} gm
[09:27] {Will49} we're saved
01[09:28] {&Threei}  ese, alex :)
[09:28] {jdetente} morning guys
01[09:28] {&Threei}  jd :)
[09:28] {Will49} hi jd
[09:28] {cc_9} Look @ that FU chart on 60min
01[09:29] {&Threei}  I still can't believe this is actual symbol
[09:29] {cc_9} lol
01[09:29] {&Threei}  where there is no FUMF
01[09:30] {&Threei}  why
[09:30] {drewj} i actually just looked it up to see if that was a joke...
01[09:30] {&Threei}  or foreign stock... FUFMF
01[09:30] {&Threei}  what the...
[09:30] {drewj} :)
[09:31] {ese} lol
01[09:31] {&Threei}  is it some kind of software malfunction again?
[09:31] {Will49} yikes
[09:31] {nemo} 168.50 strong support level
01[09:31] {&Threei}  staying away for now
[09:31] {Will49} armaggdeon
[09:31] {jdetente} the end is nigh
[09:31] {Will49} or something
[09:32] {Will49} up and down likw milet cyrus' shorts
[09:32] {Will49} miley
01[09:33] {&Threei}  now, that's yikes
[09:33] {jdetente} yeah seriously
[09:33] {Will49} i'm trying too hard
[09:33] {jdetente} hmmmm
[09:33] {jdetente} interesting choice of words
[09:33] {Will49} go ahead...sara not here
[09:33] {cc_9} FU hehehe
[09:33] {Will49} :)
[09:34] {Will49} how do we know sara is a lady?
[09:34] {nemo} how do you know I'm human?
01[09:34] {&Threei}  we don't
01[09:34] {&Threei}  in latter case
[09:34] {Will49} some doubt about nemo
01[09:35] {&Threei}  we don'twatching FB for long on pullback
[09:35] {cipher} CLDX drop
01[09:35] {&Threei}  watching FB for long on pullback
[09:35] {cc_9} SPY time to flip and head back to yesterday's close
[09:35] {cipher} l .95
[09:35] {cipher} SAVE L.39
[09:35] {Will49} scary candles
[09:35] {nemo} wuss
01[09:35] {&Threei}  are we the only guys in the world seeing them?
01[09:36] {&Threei}  no single word anywhere
01[09:36] {&Threei}  not in news, CNBC or twitter
[09:36] {Will49} did somebody break in and adjust the algos?
01[09:38] {&Threei} Long Setup:  FB  50 break
01[09:38] {&Threei}  If holds  .90 
[09:39] {dino} ach sm l .00
01[09:39] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .40 break
01[09:39] {&Threei}  late
01[09:40] {&Threei}  FB 1:1
01[09:40] {&Threei}  ^%#(*&@ GDX
[09:40] {nemo} you forgot to capitalize the caret
[09:40] {jdetente} got it
[09:40] {jdetente} thanks Vad
01[09:40] {&Threei}  yw
01[09:40] {&Threei}  lifted eyes after typing and it was at .43
[09:41] {ese} L ctxs .58
[09:41] {cipher} out CLDX .40 +.45
01[09:41] {&Threei}  wtg
01[09:41] {&Threei}  wait... how can you capitalize the caret??
[09:42] {cc_9} nemo, forgot to say, good call on the gap down today
[09:42] {Will49} ridem cowboy
[09:42] {ese} out ctxs .79 +.21
[09:42] {robbers} Out FB, thanks.
[09:42] {jdetente} yeah great one Vad
[09:42] {nemo} at my age I forget what i said 5 minutes ago
[09:43] {ese} hate that stock....spread too big for my liking
[09:43] {jdetente} get off my lawn?
01[09:43] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:43] {&Threei}  1:3 I mean
[09:43] {fish_49} ty Vad  and yea  stay off my sidewalks JD
01[09:43] {&Threei}  :)
[09:43] {cipher} out SAVE .88 +.49
[09:43] {Will49} :)
01[09:44] {&Threei}  cipher, stop it
01[09:44] {&Threei}  leave some money in the market for other kids
[09:44] {fish_49} lol
01[09:44] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  129 break
01[09:45] {&Threei}  If holds  .10 
[09:45] {nemo} want motion sickness, look at whr open
[09:45] {cipher} CLMT l.20
[09:45] {nemo} vad LVS
[09:46] {nemo} break of .20 me thinks, hold .10
[09:46] {nemo} if that doesn't bounce play off the whole
01[09:46] {&Threei}  spread is a bit wide
[09:46] {nemo} should tighten up soon
[09:47] {nemo} there
01[09:47] {&Threei}  why not take ,10 break aggressively
01[09:47] {&Threei}  soread tightening as it lost .10 was a good signal of reversdal
01[09:48] {&Threei}  there you go, 1:1
01[09:48] {&Threei}  Invalidated  GLD 
[09:49] {jdetente} 1:2 coming up
[09:49] {nemo} finnies grinding up
[09:52] {Will49} hi sara
01[09:52] {&Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break
01[09:53] {&Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[09:53] {&Threei}  sorry will
[09:53] {Will49} egad!
01[09:53] {&Threei}  but it was a toss up between you with CAT and fish with C... it's your turn
[09:53] {Will49} tks
01[09:53] {&Threei}  gotta pick between your idiosyncrasies
[09:54] {_sara} Good afternoon
01[09:54] {&Threei}  hi sara
01[09:54] {&Threei}  missed good play earlier
01[09:54] {&Threei}  *(US) SEPT FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 77.5 V 78.0E
[09:55] {jdetente} saved for now Will
01[09:55] {&Threei}  not yet
01[09:55] {&Threei}  change to .55 CAT
[09:55] {dino} out acn .63, +.63
[09:55] {jdetente} torturing poor will
01[09:55] {&Threei}  If holds  .63 
[09:56] {Will49} arggggh
[09:57] {Will49} in .54 ")
01[09:57] {&Threei}  let's see if we can improve that stats
[09:59] {ese} spread of .60 on cigx...sheesh
[09:59] {ese} opps down to .25
01[09:59] {&Threei}  yeah, that's much better
01[09:59] {&Threei}  lol
[10:00] {ese} back to .98
[10:00] {ese} man this one would kill a rookie
01[10:00] {&Threei}  rookie shouldn't touch it with 10 ft pole
[10:00] {ese} holy doodly
[10:01] {ese} eggzactilly
[10:01] {dino} cgix spike
[10:01] {cipher} FSLR  s.81
[10:02] {nemo} that looks good cipher
01[10:02] {&Threei}  1:1
01[10:02] {&Threei}  14:19] {Will49} 4 wins 4 losses and missed entry on 5
01[10:02] {&Threei}  that's 5:4 now, will
[10:02] {nemo} spy 50 day around 168.23
[10:03] {Will49} yippee
[10:03] {nemo} you're 5 for 4?
[10:03] {Will49} I love CAT
[10:03] {drewj} stop to .53?
01[10:03] {&Threei}  .56
01[10:03] {&Threei}  why .53?
01[10:03] {&Threei}  trigger was .55
[10:04] {drewj} right
[10:04] {nemo} it's two fibonacci numbers together
[10:04] {drewj} ok
[10:04] {cipher} cov FSLR .40 +.41
01[10:04] {&Threei}  Realitytrader - healing your insecurities and teaching you to love cats from 2010
[10:04] {Will49} :)
01[10:04] {&Threei}  we have to work on Les btw, he doesn't like cats
[10:04] {dino} cipher cooking today, gj
01[10:05] {&Threei}  someone stop cipher
[10:05] {ese} speaking there off......where is the man
[10:05] {nemo} wow yoga the place to be today
01[10:05] {&Threei}  this is why we have low volumes... no one wants to come out and play anymore
01[10:05] {&Threei}  everyone's like "what's the point, cipher and dino get all the money and cool toys anyway"
[10:06] {dino} lol
[10:06] {ese} toys?
[10:06] {cipher} fslr L.43
[10:06] {Will49} meowww
01[10:06] {&Threei}  ok... "cutest gilrs"
01[10:07] {&Threei}  ok, done with CAT for now... fish, you are up next
[10:07] {fish_49} Just say no to C
[10:07] {ese} grils i get.............every guy loves car grils
01[10:07] {&Threei}  hmmm
[10:07] {jdetente} some like car grills others like Piers Morgan
01[10:07] {&Threei}  rofl
[10:07] {Will49} haha
[10:07] {ese} indeed!
01[10:08] {&Threei}  I like cars and girls
01[10:08] {&Threei}  keep piers please
[10:08] {Will49} what a dink he is
[10:09] {nemo} wow, haven't heard that in a long time
[10:09] {Will49} remember...i'm from yesteryear
[10:09] {Will49} like the lone ranger
[10:09] {nemo} yestereon
[10:09] {Will49} that too
[10:10] {Will49} from the mad men generation
[10:10] {cc_9} Long SSO here  85.15
[10:11] {nemo} you just do a partial long with the .50 so close CC?
[10:13] {cc_9} say what nemo
[10:13] {cc_9} SSO tgt 85.50+
[10:13] {nemo} the 50 day on the spy is down at .23
[10:14] {cipher} out FSLR .65 +.22
[10:14] {fish_49} your thought is it is too far away form the 50?  Nemo?
[10:14] {nemo} so I was wondering if it were a starter position in sso
[10:14] {nemo} Well, that 50 is a likely magnet for price action
[10:15] {fish_49} thanks for the answer
[10:15] {dino} vsm s cgix .74 pulp
01[10:15] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .90 break
01[10:15] {&Threei}  If holds  .85 
[10:15] {cipher} wfm L.93
[10:15] {fish_49} Go get'em JD  I sit this one out
[10:15] {cc_9} instant gratification SSO :D
01[10:15] {&Threei}  come on fish, face your fears
[10:16] {cc_9} nailed SSO bouce
[10:16] {cipher} SSO BTFD trade
[10:16] {cipher} nice one cc
[10:16] {cc_9} that is correct.
[10:16] {dino} mont?
[10:16] {ese} mont ..interesting ipo...up 24%today
[10:17] {cc_9} thx cipher
[10:17] {ese} make that 27
01[10:17] {&Threei}  fresh IPO
01[10:17] {&Threei}  MONT
[10:17] {cipher} WFM stopped .01 +.08
[10:17] {ese} yup 2 or 3 days
[10:17] {cipher} dltr dumping
[10:19] {ese} ahhhhhhhh haaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!! for once i'm actually looking at stock before cipher gets to it
[10:20] {cc_9} nemo, i just see your comment
[10:20] {dino} cgix stop
[10:20] {cc_9} no i dont use any EMA or SMAs
[10:20] {cc_9} I just use volume / price action / trendlines.
[10:20] {cc_9} I keep it as simple as possible.
[10:20] {cipher} wfm s .01
[10:20] {cipher} DLTR l.54
01[10:21] {&Threei}  so progressives... who said this:
01[10:21] {&Threei}  The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a Sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. …Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally.
01[10:21] {&Threei}  Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here’. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and Grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.
[10:21] {nemo} Obama
01[10:21] {&Threei}  end of quote
[10:21] {jdetente} before he was elected
[10:21] {nemo} 2006 I believe
[10:22] {cipher} wfm stopped .04 -.03
01[10:22] {&Threei}  Senator Barack Obama, March 2006
[10:22] {jdetente} bingo
[10:22] {nemo} not as dumb as I look...
[10:22] {nemo} I know...
[10:22] {nemo} Nobody could be THAT dumb!
[10:23] {cc_9} FU, silly name and pos, but the bounce off $7.00 was bretty good
[10:23] {dino} cgix rinsed
01[10:23] {&Threei}  move your butt, C
[10:23] {ese} nervy play dino..........was looking at that and didn't know how to approach it
[10:24] {nemo} Mmmmhhhh....the older I get the parts of my body I dont want to get stiff, get stiff, and the parts of my body I do, don't...
[10:25] {Will49} too much info
[10:25] {fish_49} TMI  Nemo
[10:25] {ese} way way way too much info
[10:25] {nemo} says the "Depends" man
[10:25] {fish_49} They make a pill for that Nemo  Forgot the color  since I have never used it
[10:26] {dino} reload cgix vsm s .75
[10:26] {nemo} oh, forgot your Alzheimer's meds today, huh minnow-brain
[10:26] {ese} lol
[10:26] {fish_49} Fish Slaps Nemo witht the left hand of _Sara
[10:26] {fish_49} Hello Sara
[10:27] {nemo} o.k. no googling on this one, what does "sarah" mean?
[10:27] {ese} perfect
[10:27] {ese} sara lee cakes
[10:27] {nemo} I believe it's "wise" or "wisdom" in Hebrew
01[10:27] {&Threei}  I just googled "no googling..." didn't get any results
[10:27] {fish_49} lol
[10:27] {fish_49} lol
[10:27] {fish_49} lol
[10:27] {ese} rotf
[10:28] {nemo} so you're rotf ing, huh?
[10:28] {ese} indeed i am
[10:29] {cipher} TFM  s.83
01[10:30] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .80 break
01[10:30] {&Threei}  kl
01[10:30] {&Threei}  hl
01[10:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .70 
[10:30] {nemo} good old T&A
01[10:30] {&Threei}  1:1
01[10:30] {&Threei}  1:2
01[10:31] {&Threei}  1:3, out
01[10:31] {&Threei}  thing of beauty
[10:31] {jdetente} magic
[10:31] {Will49} quick on your feet Vad
[10:31] {cc_9} SSO taking some off here 85.42 +$0.26 :D
[10:31] {fish_49} did not even have time to scalp it
[10:31] {fish_49} thanks Vad
[10:31] {ese} nice one chief
[10:31] {cc_9} rest on limit pending .49
01[10:31] {&Threei}  yw
[10:33] {cipher} TFM  stopped .91 -.08
[10:34] {cc_9} All out SSO. tgt 85.50 hit
[10:34] {cc_9} 10:13 cc_9 SSO tgt 85.50+
[10:34] {dino} cc9 ty sso, took .30 out of it
[10:35] {cc_9} good work dino
[10:35] {cc_9} Like I said pre-market "btfd"
[10:35] {fish_49} nice push up
[10:36] {cipher} TFM  l.03
01[10:36] {&Threei}  sheesh TNA
01[10:36] {&Threei}  can I have it back?
[10:36] {fish_49} only if u take back C
01[10:36] {&Threei}  C 1:1
[10:36] {fish_49} ohhhhh
[10:37] {fish_49} can I have it back?
01[10:37] {&Threei}  told ya... work through your fears and walk through your pain
[10:37] {fish_49} I will I took baby step yesterday for a scalp right?
01[10:38] {&Threei}  yes but you should have taken second step today
[10:38] {fish_49} the day is not over
[10:38] {cipher} out TFM .27 +.24
[10:38] {fish_49} you usually make 20 - 30 C calls  a day  just because I don't like C
[10:38] {fish_49} lol
01[10:39] {&Threei}  with 4 winning trades two of which were 1:3... maybe let's call it a day? :)
[10:39] {cc_9} Good Lord, TSLA near $200
[10:43] {drewj} where is stop on c?
01[10:43] {&Threei}  .89
01[10:43] {&Threei}  after 1:1 stop is trailed to the trigger
01[10:44] {&Threei}  after 1:2 stop is trailed to 1:1
[10:44] {drewj} and if it hits 1:2?
[10:44] {drewj} still stop at trigger?
[10:44] {jdetente} same formula one cent below 1:1
01[10:44] {&Threei}  [10:44] {&Threei} after 1:2 stop is trailed to 1:1
[10:44] {drewj} ok
[10:44] {drewj} awesome morning btw
[10:44] {drewj} ty
01[10:45] {&Threei}  yw
[10:45] {jdetente} yeah we're rockin and rollin
[10:45] {fish_49} Good work Drew
01[10:45] {&Threei}  followed everything by the book?
[10:45] {drewj} again by the book...i get what you meant
[10:45] {drewj} just trade with the team
[10:45] {dino} gj
01[10:45] {&Threei}  does it become easier?
[10:45] {drewj} absolutely
01[10:46] {&Threei}  great to hear
01[10:46] {&Threei}  in a month you won't believe you used to find it difficult
01[10:46] {&Threei}  in two you won't be able to remember what it was you struggled with
[10:47] {Will49} true dat
[10:47] {drewj} i trust that will be the situation:)
[10:47] {fish_49} after you get it all down Drew, we will work on your other weakness
01[10:47] {&Threei}  enough folks went through that to confirm :)
01[10:47] {&Threei}  C 1:2
[10:47] {drewj} sounds like a good plan...
[10:48] {fish_49} I noticed you are way too polite and don't insult Nemo enough
[10:48] {dino} lol
[10:48] {drewj} i really enjoyed the last few days which is nice
[10:48] {cipher} regn l .308.50
[10:48] {ese} thats gotta make you feel loved nemo
[10:48] {drewj} i will be sure to put him down more when i get better at this:)
01[10:48] {&Threei}  it does become enjoable when you stop fighting market and yourself
[10:49] {drewj} he really deserves it and strangely seems to like it
01[10:49] {&Threei}  trading is not a fight
[10:49] {fish_49} Good Observation Drew
[10:49] {nemo}  ?
[10:49] {Will49} CAT fight for me :)
[10:49] {nemo} love?
01[10:49] {&Threei}  in fact, I am sure I have written an article about that...
[10:49] {nemo} What is good?
[10:50] {drewj} what article?
01[10:50] {&Threei}  ah yes
01[10:50] {&Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/02/is-market-battlefield-for-you.html
[10:50] {ese} CAT fighting?
[10:50] {nemo} To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women. 
[10:50] {fish_49} no   ...  Insulting Nemo
[10:50] {fish_49} it's on page 147
[10:50] {Will49} hate trading CAT
01[10:50] {&Threei}  I start typing some thought and have this vague feeling I already wrote about that, lol
[10:50] {drewj} got it here
[10:52] {ese} i've read that article...........i'm usually in a calm confident state until i get to this board......then i start nashing my teeth.....tense up ....and wanna get at it
[10:52] {nemo} that's projection from your marriage
[10:53] {ese} lol
01[10:53] {&Threei}  lol
[10:53] {Will49} his wife has a contract out on him
[10:53] {Will49} she asked me to do it but I was busy sorting my socks
01[10:53] {&Threei}  you are doing rather well supressing your violent instincts, ese
[10:54] {ese} tks
01[10:54] {&Threei}  I noticed yiou haven't even tried to defend Obama today
[10:54] {ese} life is tough all over then you die
[10:54] {fish_49} Speaking of Obama
[10:54] {ese} have had enough of you lot on that subject....
[10:55] {Will49} Obama is a dink
01[10:55] {&Threei}  worse yet - after you die, you come back as a bat
[10:55] {fish_49} So is dink the cousin of Dork?
[10:55] {ese} have just come to accept the fact that you all just don't think he's a good man..........(ese ducks)
[10:55] {Will49} yeah...how did you know?
01[10:55] {&Threei}  why, he might be a good man
[10:55] {fish_49} lol
01[10:55] {&Threei}  horrible president is what we are saying
[10:55] {fish_49} ok  ok  So we know Obama made it to heaven  here is my proof
[10:56] {nemo} look, politician's suck. They all have to lie to get elected and stay elected.  My cow theory of politics at work
[10:56] {Will49} oh so true
[10:56] {fish_49} An old man dies  (Not Will)  and he makes it up to the gates  and notices a bunch of clocks as he enters the gates
[10:56] {ese} political system in the US is preventing him from doing a good job.......can't get anything done
01[10:56] {&Threei}  lol
[10:56] {fish_49} He asked Peter what is with all the clocks
01[10:56] {&Threei}  is this your latest consolation?
[10:57] {nemo} Remember: 84% of the people have average, to less than average intelligence, but 100% of them think they are smart
[10:57] {Will49} and excellent drivers
01[10:57] {&Threei}  I say he has done enough to screw up whatever good left
[10:57] {fish_49} Peter replies  well that one over there is Abe Lincoln's clock  the hand only moved two ticks  because Abe told two lies
[10:57] {fish_49} see that clock over there? it's the clock of Mother Teresa she never told a lie and the hand has not moved
[10:58] {fish_49} the guy (Again  not Will) says  where is Obama's  clock?
[10:58] {fish_49} Peter points up and says "We are using it as a ceiling fan"
[10:58] {ese} lol
[10:58] {Will49} haha
[10:58] {fish_49} its ok to laugh Nemo it was funny
[10:58] {Will49} good joke other than your references to old will
01[10:59] {&Threei}  variation of an old rissian joke
[10:59] {fish_49} yea  Putin clock on turbo
[10:59] {fish_49} lol
01[10:59] {&Threei}  where wife asked same question and was told that clocks reflect the number of times husbands cheated on them
01[11:00] {&Threei}  when she asked about her husband clock, answer was: we haven't rfeally see it, it was more like a chopper and flew away
[11:00] {cc_9} oh hey guys
[11:00] {fish_49} I wont touch that,  Wife might read the board later
[11:00] {cc_9} look @ that FU I was talking about @ the open 
01[11:00] {&Threei}  C 1:3
01[11:00] {&Threei}  out
[11:00] {fish_49} rub it in Vad
01[11:00] {&Threei}  oh I will
01[11:00] {&Threei}  count on it
[11:00] {fish_49} Revising Trading Plan
01[11:00] {&Threei}  this is third 1:3er today
[11:00] {fish_49} Line #9  take all C trades
01[11:00] {&Threei}  lol
[11:01] {ese} thats a nice pullback from the lows cc
[11:02] {cc_9} ese, yes
[11:02] {cc_9} let me show you chart I drew pre-market for entry
[11:02] {ese} k
[11:02] {cc_9} http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/1778/yih0.jpg
[11:02] {cc_9} This is what I used for long entry, simple trendline
[11:03] {cipher} REGN stopped 308.80 +.30
[11:03] {fish_49} what was your entry again CC?
[11:03] {cc_9} FU was 7.47
[11:04] {ese} support / resistance line you mean
[11:04] {cc_9} sold 8.05
[11:04] {cc_9} Fish, FU trade entry/exit }}} http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/593/k6w2.jpg
[11:04] {cc_9} I missed the second boat again @ the $7.00s, was busy with SSO 
[11:05] {ese} nice one cc.........it's fun watching you work
[11:05] {nemo} Since good men are scarce and bad men
[11:05] {nemo} are the majority, the good the Sages do to the world is little and the evil great.
[11:05] {Will49} out C on trail...tks Vad
[11:05] {ese} gj will
[11:06] {fish_49} and the hammer back on the 23rd was what got you looking?  So you seen it falling like a knife and wanted to find the right place to enter?
[11:06] {cc_9} will post more of these kinda plays 
[11:06] {Will49} am getting better at hangin' in there for 1:2 and 1:3s
[11:07] {robbers} Will, how did you find the discipline for that?
[11:07] {Will49} i set a goal at start of trading
[11:08] {Will49} goal is to get as many 1:2 and 1:3 as possible
[11:08] {ese} he's a man of steel robbers
[11:08] {fish_49} change that ese
[11:08] {fish_49} he's an oldman of steel
[11:08] {Will49} AND don't look at your p & l
[11:09] {ese} when you meet him you'll see what i mean.....shows up in a superman outfit
[11:09] {Will49} best advice Vad ever gave me
[11:09] {Will49} OK batman!
[11:09] {Will49} you should see ese and me in a bar...lots of attention
[11:10] {ese} gotta go all.....have an early friday schedule.....take care have a great weekend eh!
[11:10] {Will49} peace
[11:10] {fish_49} take care ese
[11:10] {ese} will fish
[11:11] {robbers} Appreciate the thoughts, Will, I'll try to work on that.
[11:13] {Will49} np
01[11:13] {&Threei}  I worked out this method of teaching
01[11:13] {&Threei}  I say random things and some of them work
[11:13] {fish_49} carry big stick?
01[11:14] {&Threei}  those that don't well, I say, "hmm, then let's try this"
01[11:14] {&Threei}  also, I ask what folks do and tell them not to do that
[11:14] {Will49} that "random" advice of hiding the p&l really re-focussed me Vad
01[11:15] {&Threei}  in that case, I asked will what he does when enters a trade
[11:15] {nemo} wow, for FAS to have a .70 range
01[11:15] {&Threei}  he started listing step by step,
01[11:15] {&Threei}  and I said "oh no, don't do that"
01[11:15] {&Threei}  It happened to be looking at P/L
01[11:16] {&Threei}  scard to think would could have happened if he said "having breakfast"
[11:16] {Will49} or a shower
[11:17] {robbers} No showers allowed.
[11:17] {Will49} no kidding
01[11:17] {&Threei}  stems from another old russian joke, of Gorbachev times
[11:17] {Will49} and i thought the cost of a shower was only water and electricity!
01[11:18] {&Threei}  during his visit, farmers complained about chickens dying
01[11:18] {&Threei}  He saud, oh, no worry, just draw a red square on the barn wall.
01[11:19] {&Threei}  They did... in a week he called to find out how it worked and they said, no change, still dying
[11:19] {dino} last try sm s .cgix .85
01[11:19] {&Threei}  He said, ah, OK, then draw a green circle
01[11:19] {&Threei}  week later, same call and same answer,
01[11:19] {&Threei}  so he gives third recipe, draw a blue triangle
01[11:20] {&Threei}  Week later, he phones, they say, well, no more adice needed, last of them dies.
[11:20] {Will49} hahaha
01[11:20] {&Threei}  He: ohhh, too bad, I had so many great ideas still...
[11:20] {Will49} lol
[11:21] {Will49} a joke with 2 punch lines
[11:21] {fish_49} end of joke?
[11:21] {fish_49} lol
[11:24] {Will49} fish..i think we insulted Vad
[11:24] {Will49} at least you did:)
[11:24] {nemo} insult Vad?
[11:24] {Will49} oxymoron?
[11:25] {fish_49} he didn't kick me out of the room yet...  Maybe he is just thinking about it
01[11:25] {&Threei}  I never think about it
[11:25] {Will49} yeah, we're close to the line
01[11:25] {&Threei}  if there is a reason, I just do
[11:26] {Will49} no warning, eh?
[11:26] {fish_49} {------- Back to behaving mode
01[11:26] {&Threei}  nope... what is it, kindergarten?
01[11:26] {&Threei}  think of it as a mafiosi advice about gun
01[11:26] {&Threei}  never take it out to threaten
[11:31] {cipher} SDS l.22
[11:33] {dino} acn sm l .76
[11:35] {cipher} REGN s .57
[11:37] {cipher} SDS stopped .16
[11:42] {cipher} REGN  double top on daily
[11:42] {cipher} if loses 307 should slide considerably
[11:49] {cipher} REGN target 3 bucks min
[11:50] {dino} i'll be out at 306
[11:51] {cipher} are you in dino?
[11:51] {dino} sm s .00
[11:51] {dino} you have the hot hand today, i am paying attention
[11:55] {_sara} FCX c&h i
[11:55] {_sara} could be
01[11:55] {&Threei}  yes
01[11:56] {&Threei}  I'd short it with .50 stop
[11:59] {cipher} sds l.17
[12:01] {dino} acn to .25
[12:02] {dino} out acn .25, +.49
[12:10] {cipher} REGN to 306
[12:10] {dino} tough to cover
[12:11] {cipher} 305 should trigger some stops
[12:11] {cipher} just bid dino, simple
[12:11] {dino} cov .oo, +1, ty cipher
[12:11] {cipher} np buddy
[12:12] {dino} missed your picks last two months, you weren't posting much. glad you are now
[12:12] {cipher} :)
[12:12] {cipher} been busy trading the picks :)
[12:12] {dino} i understand
[12:13] {cipher} my SDS is starting to look better
[12:18] {jdetente} you should get that looked at by a doctor
[12:18] {drewj} ha
[12:19] {drewj} rofl
[12:19] {drewj} omg that was funny
[12:19] {drewj} hey vad...
01[12:20] {&Threei}  ?
[12:20] {drewj} when you are looking at a setup which is more important...the stop placement or the trigger
01[12:21] {&Threei}  both are just parts of the setup
01[12:21] {&Threei}  without any of them there is no trade
01[12:21] {&Threei}  none is more or less important, they need to be there
[12:22] {drewj} when i am looking at setups that you play many times the triggers are clearer to me than the stops...
[12:23] {drewj} you just never take a trade with wider than a 10 cent stop?
01[12:23] {&Threei}  sometimes
01[12:24] {&Threei}  but mostly I am looking for ranges where stop can be 5-10 cents
[12:24] {Will49} so if trigger is 1 cent below and 1 cent above, the minimum risk is 12 cents?
[12:24] {drewj} are the stops on a long play support at a lower level? 
[12:24] {Will49} 1 cent above stop
[12:24] {drewj} how do you recognize them?
01[12:25] {&Threei}  ?
01[12:25] {&Threei}  not sure I underatsnd the question
[12:26] {drewj} ok 
[12:26] {drewj} what is important when looking for a stop?
[12:26] {drewj} just tight range?
01[12:26] {&Threei}  chart configuration determines the stop placement
01[12:26] {&Threei}  111 Trades course shows it all
[12:27] {cipher} CTXS drop
[12:28] {Alexs} drew looks like you don't read anytjhing just asking
[12:28] {drewj} i'm trying to determine how the stop relates to a valid setup
[12:29] {drewj} alex  ?  you mean vad's books?
[12:29] {Alexs} vad's the best
[12:29] {drewj} no argument there
[12:29] {fish_49} if he pays you for saying that Alex  you have  to share
[12:30] {Alexs} and trading room instructions it's free
[12:32] {cc_9} SPY, here comes the push
01[12:34] {&Threei}  you word the question stranely, drew...
01[12:34] {&Threei}  "how the stop relates to a valid setup"?
[12:34] {drewj} i know that
01[12:34] {&Threei}  stop is a part of it
[12:35] {jdetente} maybe he's asking about deciding between 5 cent stop and 10 cent stop?
01[12:35] {&Threei}  it doesn;t relate to a setup any more than, say, yout wife relates to your family
01[12:35] {&Threei}  she is just a part of it
[12:35] {fish_49} may I try to explain?
[12:35] {drewj} ok
[12:35] {fish_49} I will anyways
01[12:35] {&Threei}  to me? no
01[12:35] {&Threei}  I don't want to understand :)
[12:36] {fish_49} Think of the stop as a point in where you would say "Oooops  I was wrong"
[12:36] {drewj} right
[12:36] {drewj} nice job
[12:36] {drewj} so where do you get that number?
[12:37] {fish_49} from my hat
01[12:37] {&Threei}  from the chart
01[12:37] {&Threei}  you read 111 Trades
[12:37] {cipher} REGN round 2 
01[12:37] {&Threei}  there are chart configurations shown in that
[12:37] {cipher} SPY double top
01[12:37] {&Threei}  they demonstrate how you dertive both trigger and srtop levels from the chart
01[12:38] {&Threei}  look at those configurations again
01[12:38] {&Threei}  you'll see them
[12:38] {drewj} in the book the examples are clear but when i look at charts throughout the day it is not so clear
[12:38] {dino} drew, from risk:reward, ex. i risk .25 for reward of .25
[12:39] {nemo} reading charts in a dynamic situation is more difficult because of the immediacy of the situation
[12:39] {nemo} you have to make decisions
[12:40] {drewj} so if the chart does not fit the parameters of those outlined in the book then you do not take the trade?
[12:40] {nemo} tunnel vision develops
01[12:40] {&Threei}  correct
[12:40] {drewj} right nemo
[12:40] {Alexs} so do you have 111 trades drew?
[12:40] {drewj} yes
[12:40] {Alexs} just read it 
[12:41] {drewj} i believe i start to look for those setups in too short of a timeframe...like nemo said...tunnel vision
[12:42] {nemo} forest for trees, look at bigger time frames 5 and 15 minute and daily
[12:43] {drewj} that was going to be my next question...how do you view the setups in relation to different time frames
01[12:43] {&Threei}  wait
01[12:43] {&Threei}  when you look at let's say 1 minute chart,
01[12:44] {&Threei}  do you see whole day on your chart? or jujst last xx min?
[12:44] {drewj} i try to look at the whole day but tunnel vision does develop
[12:45] {drewj} the later in the day it is the harder it gets
[12:45] {nemo} go out to the longer time frames see where support and resistance are then move in to the smaller time frame where you trade
01[12:45] {&Threei}  look at FCX
[12:45] {drewj} on it
[12:45] {dino} cern animal
01[12:46] {&Threei}  at 11:56 sara asked abloit inverted C&H
[12:46] {drewj} she was right
01[12:46] {&Threei}  can you identify it?
01[12:46] {&Threei}  where cup is
01[12:46] {&Threei}  where handle is
01[12:46] {&Threei}  where trigger is
[12:46] {drewj} yes i was watching that one
01[12:47] {&Threei}  see where stop should be placed after trigering?
01[12:47] {&Threei}  you have it all right then
[12:47] {cc_9} time to get long the market, vote whispers should be out
[12:47] {drewj} i remember you said .50
01[12:47] {&Threei}  not sure why you question your own vision
01[12:48] {&Threei}  just watch for these patterns, recognize them and trades will become very clear
[12:48] {drewj} because the higher low at 11:38 is well above .50...
01[12:48] {&Threei}  but then there is anothe low
[12:48] {fish_49} how can I share a jpg file,  I have a good example that he will understand
01[12:48] {&Threei}  11:49
01[12:49] {&Threei}  it formed new resistance
01[12:49] {&Threei}  this is extremely simplistic system
01[12:49] {&Threei}  in fact, so simple, people don't believe me this is all I trade on
[12:49] {drewj} so the stop was the most recent high
[12:50] {nemo} btw, this is support for  fcx
01[12:50] {&Threei}  a bit more nuanced than this, but never mind that fornow
[12:54] {nemo} cern
[12:54] {fish_49} https://plus.google.com/photos/115107886423602693276/albums/5928346598813289137/5928346601600576818?banner=pwa&pid=5928346601600576818&oid=115107886423602693276
[12:54] {fish_49} drew look at that pic
[12:54] {fish_49} tell me when you seeit
[12:54] {drewj} ok
01[12:54] {&Threei}  You do not have permission to view this album.
[12:54] {drewj} i requested access
01[12:55] {&Threei}  I would never do that
[12:55] {Alexs} fish is it access to your trading room?
[12:55] {nemo} nke
01[12:56] {&Threei}  open the gate on my approach or grenade launcher will do that
[12:56] {drewj} i bet it has a lot of vad's calls in it
[12:56] {fish_49} try again Drew
[12:56] {drewj} i see it
[12:56] {fish_49} lets say we want to take it long at the break of .50  
[12:56] {cipher} CTXS bouncing
[12:57] {fish_49} where would we be wrong?
[12:57] {drewj} .40
01[12:57] {&Threei}  depends on who we are... if we are nemo, everywhere
[12:57] {fish_49} bingo  so our stop would be of the break of .40
06[12:57] * nemo racks slide
[12:57] {fish_49} so your asking  always 10 cents?
06[12:57] * &Threei lifts grenade launcher
[12:58] {fish_49} that just happened to be a 10 cent range
[12:58] {drewj} kind of
[12:58] {nemo} I can shoot farther than that launcher can launch
[12:58] {drewj} so the most recent range DOES determine the stop?
[12:58] {fish_49} so what vad is saying  is  that in any stock there is a place  to put a stop  but he searches  for trades  that  have a 5 to 10 cent risk  
[12:59] {drewj} so it's the range within the setup...
[12:59] {fish_49} correct
01[12:59] {&Threei}  within my risk tolerance
[12:59] {drewj} which is usually .10
01[12:59] {&Threei}  for the suze I want to trade, yes
01[13:00] {&Threei}  size
[13:00] {fish_49} there have been times  when we would see more than 10 cents Drew
01[13:00] {&Threei}  I may go for 15 cents setup but I will cut down shares size
[13:00] {fish_49} but you have  to look in the direction your taking the stock to make sure there is equal amount of reward available
[13:00] {cipher} CTXS l.29
[13:00] {drewj} which is the distance to the next support or resistance?
[13:01] {cc_9} ok, here comes the push
[13:01] {fish_49} if your sitting up against  another resistance level 7 cents up  would you take the trade risking 10 cents  to earn 7?
[13:01] {cc_9} algos warming up
[13:01] {drewj} the reward i mean
[13:01] {fish_49} correct Drew
[13:01] {drewj} so basically you are comparing the most recent support and resistance levels to further out support and resistance levels?
[13:02] {fish_49} that pick happens  to be a JBE setting up  
[13:02] {fish_49} somewhat  but you have  to quantify the level
[13:02] {drewj} quantify...how?
[13:02] {cipher} CTXS stopped .25 -.04
[13:03] {fish_49} how strong does the next level of support or resistance look?
[13:03] {dino} cern sm s .13, stop hod
[13:03] {fish_49} what did price do last time it was there?
[13:03] {drewj} on fcx?
[13:03] {fish_49} that was not FCX in the example
[13:03] {Alexs} Vad you can leave now fish will finish the day
[13:04] {drewj} ha
[13:04] {fish_49} if I'm wrong  samck me
[13:04] {fish_49} sometimes  noob speaks the language of another noob
[13:04] {fish_49} lol
[13:04] {drewj} the picture i'm looking at is pretty small
06[13:04] * &Threei is scared to ask what "samcking" involves
[13:04] {Alexs} lol
[13:05] {drewj} don't ask don't tell
[13:05] {fish_49} you don't want to know Vad  if you really want to know  we should get Alex  to demonstrate on Nemo
[13:05] {dino} cov cern .73, +.40
[13:06] {fish_49} but really  Drew you don't need to worry yourself about that  for a few months...  I promise  you one thing...  If you take the trade and then evaluate later after hours  and ask Why did vad call a stop there, you will see it in time
[13:07] {drewj} it's cool...
[13:07] {fish_49} and after 6 months your eyes will go right to the stop on the chart and you wont even need to ask
[13:07] {fish_49} Time is the key
[13:07] {fish_49} look watch and evaluate
[13:07] {drewj} i got at what i was asking about
[13:07] {fish_49} coool
[13:07] {fish_49} {-------back to being a nooob
[13:07] {cipher} DXCM l.92
[13:08] {Alexs} back to samcking
[13:08] {fish_49} lol  
[13:08] {drewj} i don't want to watch
[13:08] {cc_9} SPY HH & HL since 10AM
[13:09] {nemo} actually last swing high was  a tad lower
01[13:09] {&Threei}  scrolling through today's jokes, I nominate for the first prize this one:
01[13:09] {&Threei}  [12:57] {fish_49} where would we be wrong?
01[13:09] {&Threei}  [12:57] {&Threei} depends on who we are... if we are nemo, everywhere
[13:09] {nemo} IWM and finnies forming a pennant
[13:10] {Alexs} rofl
[13:10] {cc_9} nemo, yes. SPY wall for now is ~ 169.10
[13:10] {cc_9} that's yesterday's low level EOD and today's high level
[13:10] {cc_9} so 169.20 is our breakout range all the way to 169.70
[13:11] {fish_49} I caught that Vad but is it a joke or reality?
[13:11] {drewj} i thought jd's SDS joke was pretty damn funny
[13:12] {cc_9} here nemo : http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/1886/iex.JPG
[13:12] {nemo} If I had to take a guess, I'd say it's gonna' drop
[13:12] {Will49} thought our rule was that you can't nominate your own jokes
01[13:13] {&Threei}  that was close contender, drew
[13:13] {cc_9} I think we go up nemo
01[13:13] {&Threei}  but since this one was mine, I eleted it
01[13:13] {&Threei}  elected
[13:13] {drewj} of course
[13:13] {cc_9} we crack that wall .10s and should push to get suckers back in
[13:14] {fish_49} https://plus.google.com/u/0/115107886423602693276/posts
[13:14] {fish_49} one more pic Drew
[13:14] {Will49} shamefull promoter you Vad:)
[13:14] {drewj} ok
[13:14] {fish_49} this was the result
[13:14] {fish_49} it came back to test the breakout area
[13:14] {nemo} who's the ugly guy standing next to the fish?
[13:14] {nemo} fish
[13:15] {fish_49} that's my twin
[13:15] {drewj} :)
[13:15] {cc_9} SPY cracking HOD here 
[13:15] {cc_9} $0.20 to go
[13:15] {cc_9} i mean $0.02*
[13:15] {Alexs} which one is you fish in the right hand?
[13:16] {fish_49} left
[13:18] {cc_9} FU slowly creeping as well
[13:19] {cc_9} SPY hitting wall, back under 169.10. yawn
[13:19] {cipher} out DXCM .39 +.47
[13:19] {nemo} it's the weakness in IWM and the finnies
[13:20] {cipher} REGN to 305
[13:20] {fish_49} do we rally into the close or drop as deadlines are approaching for our lovely government to act
[13:21] {cc_9} We rally fish
[13:21] {fish_49} ty for your opinion
[13:21] {cc_9} lol np
[13:22] {cc_9} we all know the outcome of the vote
[13:22] {cc_9} deadline or not
[13:22] {cipher} REGN target 304 -ish
[13:22] {fish_49} I'm looking to get long on a pullback on the YM or NQ but just did not have the courage to pull the trigger
[13:23] {cc_9} oh, well, in that case, close your platform and watch some cartoons
[13:23] {Alexs} lol
[13:23] {fish_49} or finish cutting grass
[13:23] {fish_49} lol
[13:25] {cipher} regn TO 304.50
[13:26] {fish_49} still in?
[13:26] {cipher} you bet 
[13:26] {dino} gj
[13:27] {Chaeron} cc - pm
[13:27] {Chaeron} Good morning all... sorry... forgot my manners
[13:28] {nemo} well, when you ferry dead people around all day
[13:28] {nemo} cern might be shortable here
[13:28] {fish_49} What time zone are you on Chaeron?
[13:29] {nemo} Stygian
[13:29] {cipher} cov REGN 304.55 + 3.02
[13:29] {fish_49} great  Cipher
[13:29] {Chaeron} Been here awhile... just busy as heck... Pacific - 
[13:29] {fish_49} Cipher  what share size  do you use when trading a stock with that price?
[13:29] {cipher} [11:49] {cipher} REGN target 3 bucks min
[13:30] {cipher} if I tell ya I'd have to kill ya
[13:30] {cipher} proprietary info
[13:30] {fish_49} ok
[13:31] {cipher} let's say smaller than usual size
[13:31] {cipher} REGN is an animal
[13:31] {fish_49} you tamed it
[13:31] {cipher} but if you learn to tame it...
[13:31] {cipher} it magically turns into an ATM
[13:32] {cipher} with that said, i'm done
[13:32] {cipher} did ok today
[13:32] {cipher} good weekend all
[13:33] {fish_49} take care enjoy the weekend
01[13:33] {&Threei}  take care cipher, good job'
[13:34] {Will49} peace cypher
[13:35] {dino} 'gj cipher
[13:41] {fish_49} another push up
[13:42] {fish_49} maybe not
[13:42] {fish_49} lol
01[13:43] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .10 break
01[13:43] {&Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[13:43] {&Threei}  let's do hl
01[13:43] {&Threei}  not that it's too volatile, I just want to preserve profit ahead of the weekend
[13:52] {cc_9} CERN holy crap
[13:53] {dino} watching that
[13:53] {fish_49} they make medical testing equipment?
[13:53] {cc_9} intraday shorts getting fried
[13:54] {dino} wow contract for hospital group, cern
[13:54] {cc_9} CERN no profit taking yet since noon
[13:55] {cc_9} yes, news is big, but look @ the buying volume that came in affter 1:45PM
[13:56] {cc_9} Taking a CERN short gamble here bc why not
[13:56] {dino} fish, hospital info company
[13:57] {fish_49} yea  I thought I heard my wife mention that name
[13:57] {cc_9} there has got to be some profit taking at some point
[13:57] {dino} i het it a little while ago, 53.13 to 52.63
[13:58] {cc_9} uh oh, $55s
[13:59] {cc_9} gona look to cover under 54
[14:00] {dino} cern sm s .56
[14:00] {cc_9} sell it boys sell
[14:01] {Alexs} trail GLD to .16?
[14:01] {nemo} #2 on the twits
01[14:01] {&Threei}  yes
[14:02] {cc_9} .30s, come on down
[14:02] {fish_49} out in full thanks Vad
01[14:03] {&Threei}  yw
[14:03] {cc_9} .30s, come on down
[14:03] {cc_9} .20s bid, come on down
[14:03] {cc_9} covering half at 54.18
[14:03] {cc_9} rest under 54
[14:04] {cc_9} lovely
[14:04] {cc_9} .10s, come on down
[14:05] {dino} cov cern .16, +.40
[14:05] {cc_9} 54.10 come on down
[14:06] {cc_9} gj dino
[14:06] {dino} ty, u2
[14:06] {cc_9} in case it hits 54 and bounce, all out 54.10 rest
[14:07] {cc_9} i will regret it, but $ is $
[14:07] {cc_9} FUUU*****
[14:07] {Alexs} fish you're braking tha rules
[14:07] {cc_9} CERN { $54
01[14:07] {&Threei}  1:1
01[14:07] {&Threei}  this is what, 5:5 today?
[14:07] {fish_49} no  Alex  I just not in the sharing mood today   Pay you half  tomorrow
[14:08] {cc_9} CERN dying under $54
01[14:08] {&Threei}  Alex, don't fall for it... mood has nothing to do with it
[14:08] {cc_9} I can't think of a better short entry than the one we had here, kudos
[14:08] {dino} cgix sm s .85 ave
01[14:08] {&Threei}  let them skip one payment on "mood" basis, tomorrow you will have to break a klot of arms to restore the sharing mood
[14:09] {fish_49} yea  but  I don't want to be a liar  Vad   tomorrow is Saturday and I know he wont be here
01[14:09] {&Threei}  lol
[14:09] {fish_49} actually Alex, I scalped it, you are the one that should be sharing
01[14:11] {&Threei}  1:2
[14:11] {drewj} totally awesome day vad.  thanks.
01[14:12] {&Threei}  drew... this is one of the cleanest setups where you should be able to see all the levels very clearly
[14:12] {drewj} i'm going to take off.
[14:12] {drewj} have a great day
[14:12] {dino} cov cgix .44, +.41
01[14:12] {&Threei}  good to hear you were able to take full advantage of it
[14:12] {fish_49} Have a great weekend Drew
[14:12] {drewj} bye all
[14:12] {dino} gj drew
[14:13] {Will49} out at 1:2 gotta go..leaving for Arizona
[14:13] {cc_9} Chaeron check privvy, pw reset
[14:13] {Will49} be back online next Mon or Tues
01[14:13] {&Threei}  got some road money today will, eh? :)
[14:13] {Will49} oh yeah!
[14:13] {dino} cya will
01[14:13] {&Threei}  when are going to be back to Victoria?
[14:13] {Will49} tks Vad...nice day
[14:13] {Will49} Nov 4th
[14:13] {fish_49} take care WIll
01[14:14] {&Threei}  ok,,, let's plan something
[14:14] {Will49} tks Fish
01[14:14] {&Threei}  tasty and sprckled with alxcohol
[14:14] {Will49} yeah Vad...sounds good!
01[14:14] {&Threei}  have a safe trip, say hello to C
[14:16] {dino} med
[14:17] {dino} too fast
[14:17] {fish_49} wow  what a skinny stock
01[14:19] {&Threei}  if will still was here, he would say "I had a girlfriend like that once"
[14:19] {fish_49} lol
[14:19] {fish_49} Sara are you there?
[14:19] {Alexs} is he actually 75?
01[14:20] {&Threei}  yes Alex
01[14:20] {&Threei}  you wouldn't think so though if met him
[14:20] {Alexs} yeah I saw him on your picture
[14:21] {fish_49} Sara not around Alex
[14:21] {fish_49} I was going to tell her about the rules in where she needs to share with us
[14:22] {nemo} Everybody, thank the Queen for being such a good sport!
[14:22] {fish_49} thanks Queen
[14:22] {fish_49} what did she do Nemo
[14:22] {nemo} flashbacks
[14:24] {fish_49} gonna log out for the day
[14:24] {fish_49} thanks for a great Day Vad
01[14:24] {&Threei}  yw sir
[14:24] {fish_49} take care all
01[14:24] {&Threei}  have a great weekend
[14:26] {robbers} I'm taking off, too, thanks much.
01[14:27] {&Threei}  yw robbers, have a good one
[14:29] {nemo} you might want to try bounce play on cern in .20 to .30 area
[14:42] {_sara} Good weekend all
[14:42] {_sara} bye
[14:42] {dino} cya
[14:42] {dino} one thing, we had more action this afternoon than rest of week
[14:43] {cc_9} CERN
[14:43] {cc_9} there goes another mortgage
[14:44] {dino} yeah, we covered that about 1.50 too soon
[14:45] {cc_9} All your fault dino
[14:45] {dino} always is
[14:45] {cc_9} looking @ the chart, could actually play out as a long trade here from this big fade
[14:45] {cc_9} gona grab long here
[14:45] {cc_9} will try to dump } $53
[14:45] {nemo} yeah, just bounced at vwap
[14:52] {cc_9} CERN sideways for 10mins
[14:52] {cc_9} lets see if consolidation
[14:52] {nemo} doesn't sideways=consolidation?
[14:53] {cc_9} going up/down is not consolidation, correct nemo
[14:53] {cc_9} sideways is
[14:53] {nemo} so somebody who is getting fat, thus growing sideways, is just consolidating?
01[14:54] {&Threei}  lol
01[14:54] {&Threei}  chaeron, look pm
[14:54] {cc_9} i have yet to meet someone who is growing down
[14:55] {dino} lol
[14:56] {nemo} http://read.bi/178PJFU
[14:59] {cc_9} lol
[14:59] {cc_9} Obama to speak at 3PM
[14:59] {nemo} I think it would be more of a story if he didn't speak on a given day
01[14:59] {&Threei}  lol
[15:00] {cc_9} if anyone has a stocktwits account, please PM this guy and tell him to stfu
[15:00] {nemo} which guy?
[15:00] {cc_9} 10.5k+ posts always hindsight bs
[15:00] {cc_9} http://stocktwits.com/1nvestor
01[15:00] {&Threei}  not lately,... but first term of his, there was a good reason why we had this "guess who's on tv" standing joke daily
[15:01] {cc_9} every stock i go to i have to see his dumb face posting some sh*t that supposedly thinks will make him look smart
[15:01] {nemo} hey CC how can you get the DAS charts to show a fixed amount of bars in a window...mine always keep adding bars and they get scrunched
01[15:01] {&Threei}  just click + on the chart
[15:02] {cc_9} Which bars ? If you can show me a screen shot it would help
01[15:02] {&Threei}  7s buttion from the left
[15:02] {nemo} I want it to show a fixed number of 1 min bars
[15:02] {nemo} and never vary having the time frame just pass through
[15:03] {cc_9} you can zoom in hitting the + button on the top
[15:03] {cc_9} or use the mouse wheel on your mouse
[15:03] {cc_9} as a new minute closes, it will add a new candle/bar, which is normal i would think
[15:03] {nemo} Yes I know, but I wanted to just set it as fixed so that I always have a set number.
[15:04] {cc_9} So when a new minute forms, you want it to push the last one back and keep the same #s to view ?
[15:04] {nemo} yes
[15:05] {nemo} so, I always want say 60 bars
[15:05] {cc_9} arent you picky
[15:05] {cc_9} well, like I said, each mouse wheel tick = 1 bar
[15:05] {nemo} lazy more like it
[15:05] {cc_9} so every minute push the mousewheel 1 tick
01[15:05] {&Threei}  he wants what in Married with Children was called Kelly's brain
[15:05] {cc_9} as far keeping a fix #, I dont think can do that by default
[15:05] {dino} just want kelly
01[15:05] {&Threei}  lol
[15:07] {dino} fete drop
[15:07] {dino} feye
[15:09] {cc_9} CERN go already...
[15:12] {nemo} fas doing a pole dance around vwap, sheesh
[15:12] {dino} fuel blood
01[15:13] {&Threei} Short Setup: TNA  .60 break hl
01[15:13] {&Threei}  If holds  .70 
[15:13] {nemo} you can't short tna
01[15:13] {&Threei}  cipher can
[15:13] {nemo} wow
01[15:13] {&Threei}  cc_9 can too
01[15:14] {&Threei}  can you?
[15:14] {nemo} holy shit, they never used to allow that
[15:14] {dino} cov remainder cgix .91, +.94
[15:14] {nemo} whoa! I'm sporting wood
[15:14] {Alexs} I can short it
01[15:15] {&Threei}  you are obsolete nemo
06[15:15] * nemo crawls into cave
06[15:15] * nemo shuts door
01[15:15] {&Threei}  1:1
06[15:15] * nemo pulls blanky over head
06[15:15] * nemo grabs teddy
[15:15] {cc_9} ugh
06[15:15] * nemo sucks claw
[15:16] {nemo} oh crist, bunny's coughing
[15:16] {dino} fuel news?
01[15:17] {&Threei}  not that I see
[15:21] {nemo} my nephew just called to let me know how things are going
[15:21] {nemo} he's working 90 hour weeks, so I never see him
[15:21] {nemo} so he calls to keep in touch, oy vay
[15:21] {dino} wow
[15:22] {nemo} graduated from vocational high school in June in hvac...one of only two kids in the program working in his field...he got two jobs
[15:22] {dino} awesome
[15:23] {nemo} yeah, he's a good kid
01[15:23] {&Threei}  he has to be exceptional, to overcome the influence of an uncle
[15:23] {nemo} I'm a little worried he might burn out a bit and get sick, but, he's getting good experience.  He's working with a coupla' old-timers and they like him
[15:23] {dino} nemo toughened him up, good for him
[15:24] {nemo} well, he got dealt some tough cards
01[15:24] {&Threei}  probably, but I couldn't miss such a chin, could I
[15:24] {nemo} did you say something Vad?
[15:24] {dino} bus stop time, back in ten or so
[15:25] {nemo} iwm looks long now
01[15:25] {&Threei}  no... I tyoed something but I already forgot what it was
01[15:25] {&Threei}  typed
[15:25] {nemo} I hope it was an attempt at an insult, as weak as it may have been
01[15:26] {&Threei}  well, it was quite similar to your yesterday's shot at drew
01[15:26] {&Threei}  so either that was weak too
01[15:26] {&Threei}  or mine was just as good
[15:26] {nemo} ahhh, powder puff shot anyway, then
01[15:26] {&Threei}  make your pick
[15:26] {nemo} "take" your pick
01[15:26] {&Threei}  whatever you prefer
[15:27] {cc_9} CERN here we go
[15:27] {cc_9} need to crack .70s
[15:27] {cc_9} Anyone here still in CERN ?
[15:31] {cc_9} lol ok then
[15:32] {nemo} SMB Capital @smbcapital
[15:32] {nemo} funny line from the prop desk: maybe President Obama will say something about $JCP
[15:37] {cc_9} someone asked me earlier what i thot about EOD : BTFD
[15:37] {nemo} what's 3:30 without a rally
[15:40] {dino} ricks cabaret new 52 wk high. hee, hee
01[15:40] {&Threei}  (IR) Iran President Rouhani and US President Obama had a phone conversation regarding the nuclear issue - Iran news agency/Rouhani tweet
[15:41] {nemo} how do you say fuck you in Farsi?
01[15:41] {&Threei}  farsiuk you?
[15:41] {dino} exactly nemo. o being the big sucker on this one
[15:41] {nemo} on muslim helping out another
01[15:42] {&Threei}  - President Obama confirms conversation took place; repeated to Iran President that there are many obstacles, but confident can reach a diplomatic solution on the issue
01[15:42] {&Threei}  well... I guess Nuclear Iran is all but certain
[15:42] {cc_9} CERN, finally
[15:44] {cc_9} going flat everything, calling it a week
[15:44] {cc_9} you guys have a great weekend
[15:44] {dino} you too cc9, gj
[15:44] {cc_9} enjoy your evening, cio
01[15:44] {&Threei}  you too
[15:48] {dino} adios all, thx for ideas, good day
01[15:52] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
[15:52] {Alexs} gn
[15:52] {jdetente} good week. see everyone Monday
[15:52] {Alexs} ty Vad
01[15:53] {&Threei}  :)