Monday, May 5, 2014

May 05 2014

Great start to the week, with 6 wins and 1 7-cents stop. Winners ranged from 1:2 to 1:3, making it a "can't lose" day.

Session Time: Mon May 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {Phil} gm all
01[09:03] {@Threei}  morning phil
01[09:10] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[09:10] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras Expected to ask fellow EU finance ministers to start to consider additional debt relief for Greece today
[09:11] {Phil} lol, what a suprise!
[09:12] {dino} gm
01[09:15] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {RonS} gm...can't help myself...beav gapping...
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Ron,,, lol
[09:19] {troub} Good morning all
[09:20] {troub} .
[09:21] {dptl} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:22] {dino} lol ron
[09:23] {RonS} bsft is...
[09:23] {Alexs} gm
[09:23] {thomcbell} data reports after the bell
01[09:23] {@Threei}  alex :)
[09:24] {thomcbell} also AIG after bell today Vad
01[09:24] {@Threei}  yes... on watch
[09:25] {RonS} band pressure on jpm saying trading revs -15-20%
[09:26] {RonS} bank
[09:26] {thomcbell} 51.50 reaction low on AIG looks like interesting level to find a long setup
[09:27] {RonS} jpm 116 day low...
[09:28] {RonS} tsm meat axed
[09:28] {RonS} tsn
[09:29] {RonS} sheesh
[09:30] {dino} trex
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:32] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:32] {@Threei}  morning volatility, let's be double careful
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop .64
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  TZA, trying for 1:4
01[09:40] {@Threei}  stop .69, touched 1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei}  out last piece
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:2  WMT
[09:43] {dino} trex partial fill l .51
01[09:44] {@Threei}  *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT US SERVICES PMI: 55.0 V 54.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine Govt indicates that a helicopter has been shot down in the area around Sloviansk - press- Note: Over the weekend the Ukraine Defense Min commented that troops had retaken 9 checkpoints in and around Slavyansk; four separatists captured - Says rebels using portable air defense system; confirms two govt helicopters shot down
01[09:45] {@Threei}  portable air defense system... yeah, those are just local activists
[09:45] {dino} damn partials, only filled 100
01[09:45] {@Threei}  I mean who doesn't have couple of those in the shed
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:3  WMT  close enough, out in full
[09:46] {dino} unfortunately for ukraine, world has said basically russia you can have that, but no more
01[09:49] {@Threei}  I am not even sure about "no more"
01[09:49] {@Threei}  world said the same after Crimea
01[09:49] {@Threei}  and red line turned out to be not so red
01[09:49] {@Threei}  who says next will be redder
[09:52] {thomcbell} watching lvs here
01[09:55] {@Threei}  watching AIG for entry on pullback
[09:57] {dino} db hl l .95
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) APR ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 55.2 V 54.0E
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .25 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:11] {@Threei}  two-sided
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
01[10:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:31] {dino} zu spike
01[10:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:33] {@Threei}  but on watch
01[10:35] {@Threei}  lol... spam e-mail hyping some drug starts with this line:
01[10:35] {@Threei}  Do you have any of the early signs of normal, age-related mental decline?
01[10:36] {@Threei}  I am very tempted to answer "NOrmal? No."
01[10:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
01[10:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:36] {@Threei}  then again, I can forward it to nemo...
01[10:36] {@Threei}  decisions decisions
01[10:36] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:38] {@Threei}  AIG is ready for the next leg
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:40] {dino} out db .25, +.30
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei}  wtg dino
01[10:43] {@Threei}  out in full AIG
01[10:43] {@Threei}  that's one nice smooth morning... is it really monday?
[10:43] {Phil} thanks
01[10:44] {@Threei}  :)
[10:44] {dino} ty
01[10:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
01[10:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:57] {dino} trex smr l .35
01[11:05] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:08] {dino} last try, smr l trex .62
[11:24] {Alexs} nice calls all through the morning Vad, thanks
01[11:24] {@Threei}  yw sir
01[11:24] {@Threei}  oh btw guys, while I remember
01[11:25] {@Threei}  with your kind permission, I won't be here on Wed
01[11:28] {@Threei}  I'll take silence as permission
[11:28] {Alexs} do we have choice?
01[11:29] {@Threei}  here is one question I never ask my wife
01[11:29] {@Threei}  I mean, let me keep my delusions
[11:33] {RonS} definition of irony?  trex is pulp...
01[11:33] {@Threei}  lol
[11:34] {dino} lol ron
[11:34] {dino} vwap imo
[11:38] {RonS} so, upgraded? platform now shows at 72.49, is that what you show?
[11:38] {dino} y
[11:41] {nemo} you want a definition of irony?
[11:41] {nemo}
[11:44] {thomcbell} tgt watching for sideways here
[11:44] {thomcbell} and then 60.05 break
[11:46] {RonS} took trex 69.73 ave out 71.45 +1.72
[11:51] {dino} wtg ron
[11:52] {RonS} dino, my dad who is 80 at golf tourney...
[11:52] {RonS} ...says to guys at tee...
[11:52] {dino} things all over the place
[11:52] {dino} whats he say?
[11:52] {RonS} ...can i use the women's, since i have to sit to pee now in order to get it in the toilet?
[11:53] {dino} lol
01[11:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
01[11:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[12:06] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:08] {@Threei}  valid again, with .23 stop
[12:16] {thomcbell} wow stuff is just dead
01[12:16] {@Threei}  yup, action stopped
[12:17] {thomcbell} two chinese growth internet names trading well here - YY and BITA both have earnings
[12:17] {thomcbell} YY tonight - Bita Thurs
01[12:18] {@Threei}  disregard FCX
01[12:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .45 break
01[12:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .52
[12:27] {dino} mco spike
[12:27] {dino} smr s .96
[12:31] {dino} cov mco .56, +.40
[12:37] {thomcbell} tgt almost there
[12:41] {dptl} leaving early...see ya tomorrow all
[12:41] {dino} cya dp
01[12:42] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[12:54] {@Threei}  SPY's superglued to this place
01[12:58] {@Threei}  AIG valid
01[13:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  126 break
01[13:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:29] {dino} dead markets
01[13:36] {@Threei}  shoul wake up closer to eod
01[13:37] {@Threei}  (US) DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: Single family housing is "over-believed and over-rated," on the edge of a big change in housing markets;
01[13:37] {@Threei}  idiot
[13:37] {nemo} I think he's right
[13:38] {dino} i don't
01[13:38] {@Threei}  reiterates recommendation to short homebuilders index (XHB)- Cites falling new home sales, negative existing home sales. - Existing home sales were boosted in 2012-13 by cash buying, which has crashed in recent months. - Questions post-crisis household de-leveraging - Wind-down of the GSEs would negatively impact housing affordability. - Cash poor, house rich baby boomers will be huge source of supply in housing - Do not expect US will ever return to 1.5M housing starts per year.
01[13:38] {@Threei}  neither do I
[13:38] {dino} for generations single family house most peoples' best and biggest investment
01[13:39] {@Threei}  also, he doesn't understand the motive under single family housing
[13:39] {nemo} biggest,, when you figure in taxes and upkeep as well as inflation, there ain't much return unless you hit one of those explosive periods and then dump it at the right time
01[13:39] {@Threei}  it's not merely an ionvestment matter for many
[13:40] {dino} but yuo forget its a "forced savings account". renting just burns $
01[13:40] {@Threei}  people simply want to pay their mortgage, not their landlord=s
01[13:41] {@Threei}  exactly dino
[13:41] {dino} agree 3i, people want to own
[13:41] {nemo} well, depends on how much you have to put down...then you have opportunity costs of the downpayment
[13:41] {dino} i should say "most"
[13:41] {nemo} well, you are paying the bank not your mortgage
[13:41] {nemo} not for a while
[13:41] {nemo} the bank is your landlord, and the tax man
[13:42] {nemo} hell it's harder to get a deadbeat tenant out then it is to get foreclosed
[13:42] {dino} for most people, home ownership is what gets them ahead
[13:42] {nemo} they think anyway
[13:43] {RonS} said the man who buys low and sells high...
[13:43] {nemo} yeah, dino the rapacious landlord, property flipper
[13:45] {dino} i have owned 28 houses. and the one i live in i have owned for 19 years. it it worth 2x what i had it built for. mortgage was paid off in 11 years (bi-weekly on a 15 yr). what am i missing
[13:45] {nemo} o.k.  subtract out taxes, upkeep and inflation adjustment
[13:46] {nemo} you must also admit, you are somewhat of an unusual case
01[13:46] {@Threei}  why? any investment would be a subject of inflation adjustment
01[13:46] {@Threei}  taxes
[13:46] {dino} no, don't agree. taxes are deductible, i do not have rent payments, and i have equity
[13:46] {nemo} it's still money you paid out on the investment
01[13:46] {@Threei}  and upkeep, heck... you keep the place where you live
[13:46] {nemo} they are deductible on your income taxes, you do pay them
[13:47] {nemo} it's just a cash flow, and PV analysis
[13:47] {dino} agreed its an investment. most will never own a house, let alone even stocks or bonds. home ownership is what helps most save via forced savings
01[13:47] {@Threei}  when you rent, you pay all those expenses of your landloklrd and have nothing to show for it at the end
[13:47] {nemo} Yes, but there is a bit missing in the marketing of home ownership
[13:47] {dino} exactly
[13:48] {dino} mortgage interest is deductible too
[13:48] {nemo} Yes, but you bear none of the burdens either
[13:48] {nemo} yes, again, it's still cashflow because the deduction just reduced how much you pay in income taxes
[13:48] {dino} and where else can you borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars at 4% for 30 nyears!
[13:48] {nemo} it's still a cashflow item
[13:49] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:49] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:49] {cosmo} renters don't have to worry about BLM
[13:50] {cosmo} as much...
[13:50] {dino} but miost renters will not save the difference. they end up with nothing
[13:51] {nemo} and many who have bought home remortgaged and screwed themselves
01[13:51] {@Threei}  which only confirms that the world is full of idiots
[13:51] {nemo} we knew that
[13:51] {dino} sure, as many do buying stocks and gold, etc
[13:52] {nemo} dino,  I'm arguing the reality versus the marketing
[13:53] {nemo} spy 47.5 million shares...August trading
[13:54] {nemo} I think markets waiting on Draghi on Thursday, especially after today's European PMI showed deflation
[13:55] {dino} and i am arguing that a home can be a great investment, provided you are not an idiot about it
[13:55] {dino} but enough on this
[13:57] {Alexs} stocks can be a great investment the same way
[13:58] {nemo} and you don't lose your job
[13:58] {nemo} or get sick
[13:58] {nemo} injured
[13:58] {Phil} what do you think of MTW if it comes back down for a DB?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  .10 break does look like a long trigger, if holds .05
01[14:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:06] {@Threei}  good spot Phil
[14:06] {Phil} thanks Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei}  clean db, right from 111 Trades pages
01[14:07] {@Threei}  you make a good use of that course, by your calls
[14:07] {nathan} :-)
[14:08] {Phil} yes, I have been through it several times. Thanks
01[14:08] {@Threei}  :)
[14:08] {Alexs} it was a commercial break?
[14:08] {dino} hum, wlp spike
[14:08] {goinshort} nice phil took the 1:1 -thanks
01[14:09] {@Threei}  yes, back to usual programming
01[14:09] {@Threei}  here is non-commercial break:
01[14:14] {@Threei}  out in full
01[14:14] {@Threei}  1:2 is close enough
[14:14] {dino} nka drop
[14:15] {dino} gap around 15.40
01[14:15] {@Threei}
[14:18] {dino} nemo, fwiw, you are forgetting that threre are no capital gains on the sale of the home up to $500k profit tax free too
[14:20] {Phil} hoping WFM comes back for a DB, DB on daily also
[14:24] {nemo} no, I'm just doing a cash flow PV analysis
[14:37] {Phil} WFM over 20?
01[14:39] {@Threei}  looks like... but do half lot
01[14:40] {@Threei}  something doesn't feel fully right
[14:40] {Phil} OK, thanks
01[14:40] {@Threei}  and after a good day it's a good practice to keep risk small, preserve profit
01[14:45] {@Threei}  White House concerned as unrest spreads to Odessa
01[14:45] {@Threei}  they wanted to spend vacation over there I assume
[14:46] {cosmo} I would want to see the ancient ruins
[14:46] {cosmo} the ancient ones
01[14:46] {@Threei}  catacombs
01[14:46] {@Threei}  quite something
[14:47] {cosmo} yeah...they better be reusable
[14:47] {Phil} 1:1
01[14:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:48] {goinshort} 1:1
[14:51] {troub} was that a db on MTW or too shallow?
01[14:51] {@Threei}  rather BMR
01[14:51] {@Threei}  bounce with mini-range
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:51] {troub} thanks
01[14:52] {@Threei}  from that same 111 Trades
01[14:52] {@Threei}  sorry Alex
[14:53] {Alexs} :)
01[15:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .10 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:20] {RonS} lol...ese doesn't say much these days...
[15:23] {dino} took hours, but out trex 71.87, +2.25
[15:23] {nathan} good night guys
[15:24] {RonS} gj
[15:24] {dino} ty, should've dumped w/you and re-loaded
01[15:24] {@Threei}  take care nathan
[15:26] {Phil} TGT DB?
[15:26] {dino} oled blood
01[15:27] {@Threei}  chart wise yes... wther market supports it on the last hour, difficult to say
[15:27] {Phil} OK thanks
[15:34] {nemo} 56.4 million shares spy
[15:37] {dino} slow afternoon
[15:37] {nemo} they've been that way, indexes look like they might come in a bit here
[15:38] {nemo} think Draghi announce QE on Thursday
[15:38] {dino} think we may be in for slow summer
[15:39] {Alexs} Have you entered GLD trade Vad?
01[15:40] {@Threei}  yes
[15:40] {Alexs} time is running out (
01[15:41] {@Threei}  trail to .16
[15:41] {Alexs} yes ok
[15:44] {dino} calling it a day, thx all, gn
01[15:44] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:45] {dino} u2
[15:46] {troub} go cut grass, gn all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  bye troub
01[15:47] {@Threei}  out
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see youi tomorrow
[15:50] {Phil} thanks Vad, bye all