Thursday, May 15, 2014

May 15 2014

This Catch of the Day is about so-called DKTK way to trade standard setups. Stands for Don't Kid The Kidder, and essentially comes to the following: when during lunch time market starts shaking out traders using standard entries, we stop taking those. Instead we wait for a setup to fail, and enter after the stops get hit. Chart below with comments embedded will help to see it. Standard entry would have been around .82 with stop under .70, and it would have been stopped. Instead, we waited for this to happen and bought .71 after the shakeout. Market got rid of the premature buyers and proceeded to 1:3.

Overall, quite spectacular day with 1:3 and 1:2 trades generously sprinkled throughout, and just two stops. Finished with 1:3 on IWM as well.

[09:02] {dino} gm
01[09:02] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:06] {dptl} good morning
01[09:06] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:14] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:14] {thomcbell} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei}  thom :)
01[09:15] {@Threei}  *(US) APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.6% V 0.0%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION:78.6 % V 79.1%E- Manufacturing Production: -0.4% v +0.3%e
01[09:18] {@Threei}  US 10-year yeild tests 2.5% for first time since last fall
[09:18] {nathan} gm all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  nathan :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  bond vigilantes are about to start shooting themselves?
01[09:20] {@Threei}  WMT -3% this fine morning
[09:20] {RonS} gm
01[09:20] {@Threei}  Wal-Mart Stores Inc Reports Q1 $1.11 v $1.15e, R$115B v $115.9Be- Guides Q2 $1.15-1.25 v $1.28e, Walmart US SSS seen 'relatively flat'
01[09:20] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  now, this amazes me:
01[09:20] {@Threei}  Wal-Mart Stores Inc On track to open in FY15 115 super centers, 180-200 neighborhood stores and 90-100 express stores - conf call
01[09:21] {@Threei}  they still haven't run out of cities to put stores in?
[09:21] {RonS} no kidding
[09:23] {ese} morning...awesome get to make it for part of another day
01[09:23] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:23] {ese} morning vad
[09:24] {RonS} bada bing ese
[09:24] {ese} mornin ron......
[09:26] {goinshort} morning all
01[09:26] {@Threei}  gs :)
[09:27] {RonS} nq Block clocked
01[09:28] {@Threei}  will keep WMT on radar
01[09:29] {@Threei}  it was a bit too narrow lately but today's gap might reactivate it
[09:29] {Alexs} good morning
01[09:29] {@Threei}  alex :)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
[09:30] {dino} emes drop
01[09:30] {@Threei}  yeah right
01[09:30] {@Threei}  30 cents in a blink of eye
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .60 break hl
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .35 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2  WMT
01[09:36] {@Threei}  trail to .41 AIG
[09:36] {nathan} gj WMT
01[09:36] {@Threei}  ty
[09:37] {thomcbell} fnsr 23 break if holding 23.10
01[09:37] {@Threei}  tough spread thom
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1  AIG
[09:38] {nemo} you should hold a piece of WMT as long as you can
[09:39] {thomcbell} fnsr 1:1
01[09:39] {@Threei}  yeah, has more upside
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:2  AIG
[09:40] {thomcbell} will close out fnsr at 22.70 and 22.60
01[09:42] {@Threei}  nice one
[09:43] {thomcbell} flat fnsr
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .70 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:46] {@Threei}  WMT Tier 1 Firm reiterates Buy rating, price target $90
01[09:47] {@Threei}  timely
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {dino} yy sm l .00 wide
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:3  AIG
01[09:47] {@Threei}  out in full
01[09:48] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: May NAHB Housing Market Index due out at 10:00ET (14:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 49e v 47 prior **Reminder: The Jan reading of 46 was the lowest since May 2013 while the Dec reading of 58 matched an eight-year high seen in Aug
01[09:48] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 14.0e v 16.6 prior (**Note: The April reading was the highest since Sept 2013))
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:4... can I have some back?
[09:50] {dino} yy stop
01[09:51] {@Threei}  Russian President Vladimir Putin says from next month Russia will only deliver gas to Ukraine if it pays in advance
01[09:51] {@Threei}  right... the easiest way to pump those IMF funds into russian pockets
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .05 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  if numbers are good and market bounces
[09:59] {dino} yy sm l .50
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) MAY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 45 V 49E
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *MAY PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK:15.4 V 14.0
01[09:59] {@Threei}  AIG valid
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:04] {RonS} scty lights out
01[10:04] {@Threei}  WMT tries
01[10:05] {@Threei}  trail AIG to .99
[10:09] {nathan} nice breakdown on C
01[10:12] {@Threei}  meh
[10:12] {nemo} look for bounce spy at 187 with floor around 186.80
01[10:13] {@Threei}  observing ETFs to see which is the best to capture these downward moves...
01[10:13] {@Threei}  TZA is so-so
01[10:14] {@Threei}  but FAZ looks just right
[10:14] {nemo} algo at extreme selling
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:20] {@Threei}  change to .10 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  58
01[10:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:28] {nemo} QCOR only green stock
[10:28] {nathan} and MSFT
01[10:29] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece Finance Ministry denies earlier reports that it would be putting a retroactive tax on capital gains booked in 2014 by foreign holders - press- Clarifies that capital gains booked on Greek bonds by foreign holders between Feb 29, 2012 and Dec 31, 2013 are still subject to the old tax code put in place in 2012.
01[10:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  58 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:35] {nemo} finnies new lows
01[10:35] {@Threei}  valid
01[10:36] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:36] {@Threei}  good luck getting it
[10:37] {thomcbell} wmt 77.15 short break if holding 77.23
[10:37] {thomcbell} 1:1
[10:42] {dino} ssys sm l .99
[10:44] {thomcbell} aal 38 long break if holding 37.90
01[10:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:58] {nathan} why is so frozen?
01[10:58] {@Threei}  ?
[10:59] {nathan} spy
[10:59] {nathan} after the fall, only moves in this range?
01[11:00] {@Threei}  morniong activity time is over, lunch lull starts
[11:00] {nemo} after fall consolidatin is to be expected
01[11:00] {@Threei}  market does it every day
[11:00] {nathan} ok, i'm not used to
[11:00] {nemo} rythms of the market
[11:02] {Alexs} very poetically nemo
[11:02] {cosmo} nap time
[11:13] {dino} out ssys .41, +.42
[11:17] {nathan} good one dino!
[11:19] {dino} ty
[11:20] {nathan} btw you like risk! 20c of spread...
01[11:28] {@Threei}  watching IWM for DKTK
01[11:29] {@Threei}  watching IWM for DKTK
01[11:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
[11:29] {nathan} dont kid the kidder? :-)
01[11:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[11:29] {@Threei}  yup
01[11:29] {@Threei}  .80 was standard rentry
01[11:29] {@Threei}  stop would have been under .70
01[11:29] {@Threei}  so that's where we try
01[11:31] {@Threei}  trail to .64
[11:31] {dino} ssys sm l .71
01[11:31] {@Threei}  takes too long to say honestly
01[11:32] {@Threei}  finally
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:32] {@Threei}  DKTK, baby :)
01[11:32] {@Threei}  one of my finest inventions
01[11:33] {@Threei}  again... love the clear structure of the p[lay
01[11:33] {@Threei}  that engineer's nature, Alex :)
01[11:33] {@Threei}  this time it was in tune with your animal's one
[11:34] {Alexs} :)
01[11:34] {@Threei}  I think I'll make a screenshot to illustrate it better
01[11:35] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:35] {@Threei}  over and out
01[11:36] {@Threei}  for a lunch time, not too shabby
[11:37] {Alexs} honestly more looks like a db setup now
01[11:38] {@Threei}  charts are like rorschach spots
01[11:38] {@Threei}  you can find various things in them
01[11:38] {@Threei}  but you do see .80 break long?
01[11:38] {@Threei}  which btw could have been that same db, with standard trigger
01[11:38] {@Threei}  it would have been stopped out under .70
[11:38] {Alexs} conservative yes
01[11:39] {@Threei}  instead, we let it break and drop, and bought it there
01[11:39] {@Threei}  which is the definition of DKTK
[11:40] {dino} what does dktk stand for?
[11:40] {Alexs} whatever as long as it gave 1:3 I'm ready to accept eny name of it
01[11:41] {@Threei}  "what's in the name..."
01[11:41] {@Threei}  or, "as you name the boat, so will it float"
[11:43] {troub} covered in 111?
01[11:44] {@Threei}  no
01[11:44] {@Threei}  this is not a separate setup
01[11:44] {@Threei}  this is a certain way to play any other setup
[11:46] {ese} once again another morning wasted...........sigh......cya tomorrow
01[11:46] {@Threei}  great
[11:46] {Alexs} lol
01[11:46] {@Threei}  thank you for sound endorsement
[11:46] {nathan} ?
[11:47] {nathan} did i missed anything?
01[11:47] {@Threei}  ese is special case nathan... busy with phone calls and arrangements for his band, misses trades :)
[11:47] {nathan} ok
[11:48] {Alexs} people of art need pain to feel good
[11:48] {nathan} lol
[11:48] {dptl} lol
01[11:48] {@Threei}  and we have a man just for that
[11:48] {Alexs} rofl
01[11:48] {@Threei}  I mean, nemo is a walking pain delivery device
[11:55] {nemo} part of the soul development process
01[11:55] {@Threei}  or extraction?
[11:57] {RonS} buffalo springfield:  she's got soul
[11:58] {RonS} still's guitar riff a classic
[12:18] {thomcbell} i wish you all some good trades - have to run
[12:19] {Alexs} take care tbell
[12:19] {nathan} take care
01[12:19] {@Threei}  take care thom
[12:35] {dino} out ssys .40, +.69
01[12:40] {@Threei}  wtg'
[12:43] {dino} ty
01[12:49] {@Threei}  do you know how is National Bank of Ukraine like Elvis?
01[12:49] {@Threei}  here:
01[12:49] {@Threei}  Employees of the department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in Donetsk region have left the building.
[12:52] {RonS} lol
[12:53] {Alexs} didn't get it Vad
[12:53] {RonS} that's true blue American corn...
[12:54] {RonS} feeling like Jesus after his first conversion...
[12:54] {RonS} :)
01[12:56] {@Threei}  akex...
01[12:56] {@Threei}  k=l
[12:57] {dino} l hl tna .70
[13:00] {dptl} leaving early.....see ya tomorrow all
01[13:00] {@Threei}  hold on dp
[13:00] {dino} cya dp
01[13:00] {@Threei}  wanted to give you and alex a link, for when you have free 10 min
[13:00] {dptl} ok
01[13:00] {@Threei}
01[13:01] {@Threei}  unreal
01[13:01] {@Threei}  reports from apartments, people in the middle of Slavyansk, gunfight non-stop
01[13:01] {@Threei}  reads like from another universe
01[13:02] {@Threei}  as they report where the dhooting and explosions are right now, so those who need to go to the store or something know when the risk is higher
[13:03] {dptl} crazy....
01[13:04] {@Threei}  ,link is to the third oage from the end, click next to see current
[13:06] {dptl} cant beleive its heppening over there
01[13:06] {@Threei}  yeah
[13:06] {dptl} ok...see ya tomorrow, got to go
01[13:07] {@Threei}  take care
[13:09] {dino} tna stop -.20
[13:10] {Alexs} three month ago it would sound unbeleivable now it's no news for me Vad
01[13:14] {@Threei}  someone just ordered large print of this image of mine:
01[13:14] {@Threei}  pleasant to know it will be on someone's wall
[13:17] {RonS} when did you talk the pm into renaming the province after you?
[13:17] {RonS} ...vritish columbia...
[13:18] {RonS} :)
01[13:18] {@Threei}  I did?
[13:18] {Alexs} then everybody will order Vad's image
01[13:18] {@Threei}  ahh... thanks, will fix it :)
[13:19] {RonS} look at the below the picture...
01[13:20] {@Threei}  done :)
01[13:28] {@Threei}  LOL... they put it in words openly now:
01[13:28] {@Threei}  Medvedev urges EU to give Kyiv more money, make it repay gas debts
[13:29] {Alexs} why should they conceal it?
01[13:30] {@Threei}  they always protested EU help to Ukraine in public, while appreciating it as theit own money pump behind the curtains
[13:30] {Alexs} looks like it's just ukrainian government doesn't get it
[13:32] {dino} tna rinsed
[13:33] {Alexs} when europe gave first money to Ukraine they said it was for gas payment as well
01[13:34] {@Threei}  and Moscow protested
01[13:34] {@Threei}  now they don't
[13:34] {RonS} russian negotiation?
01[13:34] {@Threei}  looks soft Ron
[13:35] {dino} tna hl l .70
01[13:35] {@Threei}  kidnap the dog, take it to the forest, torture it for 3 days, then call the meeting - and at that meeting present a dog and a gun
[13:37] {Alexs} Vad, did you read that Biden's son is now in the board of directors of ukrainian gas and oil company ?
01[13:37] {@Threei}  yes
01[13:37] {@Threei}  imbeciles
[13:37] {Alexs} nice
01[13:37] {@Threei}  whole white house currently are imbeciles
[13:38] {dino} agreed
01[13:38] {@Threei}  they have no slightest idea how this plays out
01[13:38] {@Threei}  all the propaganda about USA staging whole Ukrainian revolution suddenly got solid confirmation
01[13:39] {@Threei}  Kremlin can't believe their luck and the incompetence of the opponent
01[13:40] {@Threei}  and their ctahcphrase now is, "and these people lecture us about corruption?"
01[13:41] {@Threei}  remember little Johnny reaction when he looked in the keyhole of parents' bedroom?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  "And these people forbid me to pick my nose?"
[13:44] {Alexs} lol
[13:45] {nathan} have a gn
[13:45] {nathan} take care
01[13:45] {@Threei}  take care nathan
01[13:49] {@Threei}  can we pick someone responsible for reelecting current wh host and beat him up?
[13:50] {Alexs} I searched in the internet who is the owner of that company, last was one of Yanukovich's friend, who is now nobody knows
01[13:50] {@Threei}  perfect background for making it look like whole thing is transfer from former owners to USA
[13:53] {Alexs} btw russians still haven't played that situation
01[13:55] {@Threei}  it's all over the interenet
01[13:55] {@Threei}  social networks, forums
[13:57] {dino} out tna .22, +.52
01[13:58] {@Threei}  nice
01[13:58] {@Threei}  Russia to cease space station cooperation
[14:00] {Alexs} it hits russia primarily I think
[14:01] {Alexs} it's very strange that Putin made that move first, looks stupid
[14:08] {Alexs}
01[14:08] {@Threei}  yeah, his time to shine
01[14:10] {@Threei}  TZA bounce time soon
[14:12] {Alexs} In the latest referendum, on May 18, Swiss voters will decide whether to introduce the world’s highest minimum wage, paying workers at least 22 francs ($25) per hour or 4,000 francs a month
[14:13] {Alexs} happy Less
01[14:13] {@Threei}  will they double taxes to pay for that?
[14:14] {Alexs} no they will use Yanukovich money
01[14:14] {@Threei}  oh
01[14:14] {@Threei}  so no hope for me to get my share
[14:14] {Alexs} it will be enough for next 100 yars I guess
[14:15] {Alexs} years
01[14:15] {@Threei}  I mean, when I immigrated I was told that I sold my motherland out
01[14:15] {@Threei}  I am still waiting for my share from that sale
[14:15] {Alexs} lol
01[14:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[14:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[14:20] {@Threei}  change to .30
01[14:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:21] {nemo} gotta' love OP EX
01[14:21] {@Threei}  we do
01[14:24] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:25] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:25] {@Threei}  me out
01[14:25] {@Threei}  me happy
01[14:25] {@Threei}  tree pretty
[14:25] {Alexs} nice catch Vad :)
01[14:25] {@Threei}  fire bad
01[14:25] {@Threei}  me do nice catch
01[14:25] {@Threei}  ummm... this didn't come out exatly right
01[14:26] {@Threei}  one of those days that reward a week of churning
[14:33] {goinshort} nice call IWM !
01[14:34] {@Threei}  :)
[14:35] {dino} 07 green
[14:38] {dino} out yy from morning, .65, +1.15
01[14:40] {@Threei}  cool
[14:41] {dino} ty
[14:46] {Alexs} I propose to introduce a minimum wage for day traders 1/10 of dino income
[14:47] {dino} then i will go on strike as they did in atlas shrugged
[14:47] {Alexs} lol
[14:55] {RonS} outta here early...see y'all tomorrow
01[14:55] {@Threei}  take care ron
[15:04] {Alexs}
[15:05] {Alexs} Look at the map on Putin's picture in that article Vad
[15:05] {Alexs} Crimea is shown as part of Russia already
01[15:07] {@Threei}  yeah
01[15:16] {@Threei}  trying to decipher last move direction
01[15:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[15:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[15:25] {@Threei}  very tight, to have another chance if this is not the reversal
01[15:27] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:28] {Alexs} you're like Sherlock Holms today Vad
01[15:28] {@Threei}  but... it IS elementary
[15:28] {Alexs} nice deciphering
01[15:29] {@Threei}  :)
[15:31] {goinshort} took the 1:1 thanks
01[15:31] {@Threei}  yw
01[15:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:34] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:34] {@Threei}  out
01[15:34] {@Threei}  done for the day
01[15:35] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a grfeat evening
01[15:35] {@Threei}  see you tomorr'ow
[15:35] {goinshort} u2 thanks
01[15:35] {@Threei}  :)
[15:35] {Alexs} gj