Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Dec 09 2014

Another back and forth day... a lot of indecisiveness in the market.

Session Time: Tue Dec 09 00:00:00 2014

[08:50] {dino} gm
01[08:50] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:06] {dptl} good morning
01[09:06] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:10] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:10] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:13] {RonS} gm...lol...doc yesterday reviewing my blood work said i had cholesterol levels "people would die for"...dropped 30 points to 145
01[09:13] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:13] {@Threei}  so,,, share your remedy
[09:15] {RonS} been lifting weights...walking regularly...only eat when hungry...
01[09:16] {@Threei}  this is so boring... no miracle pill?
01[09:17] {@Threei}  stop with common sense, will ya
[09:17] {RonS} no pills...for that...high blood pressure on the other hand, pills
[09:17] {dino} gj ron
[09:19] {RonS} glucos level was 1 out of range...asked what to do? quit bread or drinking... there goes the bread...
[09:19] {RonS} +e
[09:19] {JoebiWan} lol
01[09:20] {@Threei}  one of the biggest contributions to my drastic weight drop was compklete switch from wheat bread to buckwheat one
01[09:21] {@Threei}  self-made
[09:21] {dino} ron, thats what doc is telling me, get off carbs
[09:21] {RonS} ok...nemo here:  CONN jobbed
01[09:21] {@Threei}  hehe
[09:21] {nemo} protein and vegetables
[09:21] {nemo} emperor's diet
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BLUE +56% (positive data for LentiGlobin; positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ANF +6.4% (CEO retiring, search for new CEO underway)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  - TLM +8% (confirmed interest from mulitiple suitors)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CONN -35% (earnings; withdrawal of prior FY15 guidance)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NBG -13% (election concerns negatively impacting equities)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TASR -6.7% (fired COO & eliminated position/momentum)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SAVE -6% (Nov traffic)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DGLY -5.5% (Thestreet.com making cautious comments)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PBY -5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -HRB -5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VZ -3% (expects Q4 pressure in wireless from promotional activity)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BAC -2.5% (comments at Goldman FinServ conference)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -T -2% (in sympathy with VZ)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -UTIW -10% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TRNO -4% (secondary pricing)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:34] {@Threei}  no go
[09:35] {dptl} out
[09:36] {RonS} amba ouch
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  change to .20
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:38] {dino} stalking that ron
01[09:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .95 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:41] {dino} amba sm l .98
[09:41] {RonS} got amba for a buck
[09:43] {dino} wtg
[09:43] {JoebiWan} nice ron
[09:43] {RonS} hearing greek mkt -11%
[09:44] {dino} cybr sm l .96
[09:45] {dino} data sm l .55
[09:45] {dino} ron, its all greek to me
01[09:46] {@Threei}  latest report from the land of imbeciles:
01[09:46] {@Threei}  (GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble: To discuss Greece extension in the German parliament (Bundestag) next week, hopes parliament will agree to the extension - Final tranche of IMF aid may become a special credit line- Reiterates that the Juncker European investment plan should be implemented as quickly as possible- EU negotiations regarding the financial transaction tax (FTT, Tobin tax) have made little progres
01[09:46] {@Threei}  they still want that financial transaction tax, sheesh
[09:47] {dino} they need to just stop funding greece, let the market work out the defaults. the pain and time would be less
01[09:47] {@Threei}  come on UK, exit that loonie bin and put an end to the misery called EU
[09:47] {dino} out data .14 ave , +.59
[09:48] {dino} out cybr .28, +.32
[09:48] {JoebiWan} wtg
[09:48] {dino} ty
[09:48] {dino} out amba .65, +.67
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .70 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:49] {nemo} VXX looks short
[09:49] {dino} can i go home now (oh wait, i am home)?
01[09:50] {@Threei}  no go
[09:50] {dptl} out dal
[09:53] {dino} btfd
[09:53] {nemo} kinda'
[09:53] {nemo} things looking short here
[09:54] {dino} wait....
01[09:55] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .50 break
01[09:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:55] {JoebiWan} out amba .88 +1.00
01[09:56] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:56] {nemo} I lied...spy 205 test looks imminent
[09:56] {dino} joe gj
[09:57] {RonS} couldn't handle the success?
01[09:58] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:58] {@Threei}  just didn't stick around for the applause
[09:59] {dino} lol
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 48.4 V 47.0E
[10:02] {dino} vdsi sm l .35
[10:02] {dino} .32
[10:06] {cosmo} so optimism is better than expected?
[10:06] {dino} indeed
01[10:06] {@Threei}  optimister
[10:06] {cosmo} hmm
[10:07] {dino} usa compared to everywhere else is kickiing ass
[10:08] {dino} out vdsi .64, +.32
[10:09] {RonS} got a +.20 hl vdsi thanks dino
[10:09] {dino} yw, gj
[10:11] {dptl} dal .40 break short
[10:11] {dino} luv sm l .18
[10:13] {dptl} half out dal
[10:14] {dino} fwiw luv stop is .98
[10:15] {dino} mkt dropping
[10:15] {dino} altho 07 green scrolling
[10:17] {dino} luv stop -.20
[10:19] {dptl} out balance dal
[10:20] {dino} luv rinsed
[10:33] {cosmo} hi ho silver...fwiw
[10:33] {nemo} squat
[10:34] {cosmo} yeah, it varies
[10:34] {cosmo} I like Mercury dimes
[10:35] {nemo} don't see those much any more
[10:35] {nemo} nor copper pennies
[10:35] {cosmo} that's why
[10:37] {RonS} freakin mexican paper money is size of a post-it...
[10:38] {cosmo} what size post-it?
[10:38] {nemo} zotrot
01[10:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:43] {dptl} out
[10:43] {dptl} .70
[10:44] {dptl} accedently double cklicked got out all
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:3  DAL  close enough
01[10:48] {@Threei}  out
[10:50] {JoebiWan} out ty vad
01[10:50] {@Threei}  1:4
[10:50] {nemo} iwm going for gap close
01[10:50] {@Threei}  yw
[10:50] {dptl} i scrude up this one
01[10:51] {@Threei}  1:5
01[10:51] {@Threei}  1:6... somg
[10:51] {dptl} turn out just a scalp for me)
[10:51] {dptl} nice one
[10:53] {dptl} bhp .30 break short
[10:53] {dino} xiv l .
[10:53] {dptl} if holds .40
[10:55] {dino} cx xiv
[10:57] {dino} xiv l .70
[10:58] {dino} xiv stop .56 -.14
[10:59] {nemo} indexes double topping dino
[11:00] {dino} thx
[11:00] {dptl} watching bhp again
[11:03] {dptl} in
[11:03] {dptl} stop above .40
[11:03] {RonS} wdc
[11:03] {RonS} stx
[11:06] {dptl} sigh..out bhp
[11:11] {dptl} long hal .36
[11:14] {nemo} NKE
[11:14] {dino} kmi l .76
[11:19] {dptl} half out hal
[11:20] {dptl} and out rest
[11:21] {dino} nke sm l .10
[11:22] {RonS} kmi thicker than rosie o'donnel's neck...
[11:22] {JoebiWan} lol
01[11:22] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:22] {@Threei}  how can I unsee that image
[11:24] {dino} lol
[11:24] {nemo} that hurt, tried nke short
[11:24] {dino} long her
[11:24] {dino} here
[11:24] {nemo} yeah, gapped up and took me for .30
[11:26] {dino} out nke .40, +.30, thx for idea nemo
[11:26] {RonS} lol
[11:28] {nemo} yeah, I'll need three winners to make that one up
[11:28] {dino} baba just went green, smr l .15
[11:30] {dino} out kmi .84, +.08
[11:33] {nemo} I just have to remember to NEVER EVER play a breakout or breakdown
[11:34] {dptl} ?
[11:35] {nemo} I never get them right
[11:35] {dptl} bhp rinsed
01[11:35] {@Threei}  time to reread 111 Trades?
[11:36] {nemo} no, just not my trades
[11:36] {nemo} took drop of 96
01[11:36] {@Threei}  I mean, to analyze what you are doing wrong?
01[11:36] {@Threei}  you do see us taking them all the tinme and winning most of them
[11:36] {nemo} I just don't see them right not in my ability
01[11:37] {@Threei}  I don't think it's about ability
01[11:37] {@Threei}  no one is born with abi,lity to see breakouts, reversals etc
01[11:37] {@Threei}  it's trained skill
01[11:37] {@Threei}  learned
[11:38] {nemo} well now we're getting into the story of the cartwright
[11:40] {dptl} vlo .95 break short
[11:41] {dptl} if holds .05
[11:44] {dptl} invalidated
[11:45] {nemo} funny, I liked it long over 48
[11:45] {dptl} may be :)
[11:46] {nemo} iwm could got to .60 area
[11:49] {dino} lvlt spike
[11:49] {dino} sm s .70
[11:50] {nemo} hft got out of hand for a second
[11:56] {dino} nemo, that snow storm hitting you today. we're supposed to get 8-12", so far just rain
[11:56] {nemo} just rain for me, but boy was it slippery driving home last night
[11:58] {dino} cov lvlt .65, +.05 stuck
[11:59] {dino} yeah, lots of freezing rain here last two weeks, plus 8" snow thanksgiving eve
[11:59] {nemo} global warming
[12:03] {dptl} cop .20 breack sh
[12:04] {dino} actually, nov and so far december running about 4 degrees below ave. last two years we ran below ave temps in winter too
[12:04] {nemo} careful that was the setup that screwed me
[12:05] {nemo} last two years have been below average in North America dino
[12:05] {dptl} stop .31
[12:05] {dino} there you have it, lol
[12:09] {dptl} 1:1
[12:10] {dptl} 1:2
[12:11] {JoebiWan} gj dp
[12:11] {dptl} 1:3 out
01[12:11] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:11] {dptl} :)
[12:13] {dino} gj
[12:14] {dptl} ty
01[12:19] {@Threei}  Risk is off the table globally this morning after China rolled out new measures to deflate its debt bubble and the euro zone debt crisis saw yet another encore performance. Note that the possible political crisis in Athens has forced Greek equities down more than 13% today, their biggest slide in more than two decades.
01[12:19] {@Threei}  encore, lol
[12:20] {dptl} vlo .90 break sh if holds 47
[12:21] {dptl} 48
[12:27] {JoebiWan} sdrl .75 break?
[12:27] {JoebiWan} s .74
[12:27] {dino} btfd
[12:28] {nemo} bull market far from over
[12:28] {nemo} just little profit taking stretches
[12:28] {dino} agreed
[12:28] {nemo} we might not move up like we did last two years, but...
[12:29] {dino} 20k will be hit shortly
[12:29] {nemo} all central banks have to do is hit the mouse and then buy stocks
[12:30] {dino} don't fight it
[12:34] {nemo} IWM going for .0
[12:34] {nemo} .60
[12:34] {nemo} spy should break, and they go for 206
[12:37] {dptl} stopped vlo...1c to 1:1 cant do it
[12:40] {JoebiWan} sdrl stopped. .75 is pivot whoops
[12:41] {dino} amba, wow green, what a range
[12:50] {nemo} time to start throwing darts
[12:51] {nemo} algo completely green
[12:52] {dptl} taking a break
[13:00] {nemo} ehh wtf...might as well try an index short
[13:00] {RonS} Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton injured in car wreck in Charlotte
[13:04] {nemo} well that didn't work either
01[13:04] {@Threei}  why short? there is no setup here
[13:05] {nemo} there was to me
[13:05] {dino} out baba .25, +1.10
[13:08] {dino} damn, sold that too soon
01[13:08] {@Threei}  here is typical breakout setip
01[13:08] {@Threei}  IWM .90 break
01[13:08] {@Threei}  what is wrong with that per your read, nemo?
[13:09] {nemo} nothing, I just don't see them, I always pick breakouts and breakdowns incorrectly,,,I only see when they're in the middle of shit
[13:10] {nemo} SPY gonna' go green
[13:10] {dino} i get it nemo, i have same issues
[13:11] {nemo} I never fail to be wrong on obvious setups, it's the unobvious ones I see
01[13:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VLO  .30 break
01[13:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[13:12] {@Threei}  The Moscow Times: One in three Russian officials is 'corrupt'
01[13:13] {@Threei}  hmmm... their estimate is off by 66%
[13:14] {RonS} lol
[13:20] {dptl} sigh..out vlo
[13:20] {dptl} is it one of thouse days again
[13:23] {dino} no
[13:24] {dino} :)
02[13:28] * Disconnected
Session Close: Tue Dec 09 13:28:04 2014

Session Start: Tue Dec 09 13:28:04 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[13:31] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[13:31] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[13:39] {Threei}  reversal should be close somewhere
01[13:39] {Threei}  watching VXX
[13:39] {nemo} gap close
01[13:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[13:40] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[13:40] {nemo} \probably we close green today
[13:40] {nemo} no sign of momentum waning yet
01[13:41] {@Threei}  VXX is likely to react before actual jump, will be difficuklt to find entry after
01[13:41] {@Threei}  so trying with low risk entries at the first sign on setup
01[13:41] {@Threei}  this is aggressive entry for soudble bottom
01[13:41] {@Threei}  double too
[13:42] {nemo} .27 was an impotant level for SPY, but I would think they want to close that gap
01[13:46] {@Threei}  shaped up nicely for a run
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:47] {@Threei}  1:2
[13:48] {dptl} ty..stop to under .55
01[13:48] {@Threei}  yw
[13:49] {JoebiWan} nice call vad
01[13:50] {@Threei}  ty
01[13:50] {@Threei}  1:3
[13:51] {JoebiWan} trailing
[13:51] {dptl} all out ty...a bit better now:)
03[13:52] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[13:53] {dptl} need one more just like that :)
[13:54] {nemo} I have to wait for tomorrow
06[13:54] * @Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large bottle of antigreedin
[13:56] {dptl} watching cop for .60 break long may be
[14:00] {dptl} vlo .30 break interesting long
[14:06] {dptl} cop breaking just didt give set up...will see if pulls back
[14:06] {nemo} oil is green
[14:07] {nemo} http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
[14:07] {nemo} live data
[14:11] {dptl} ok .60 recross if holds .55 cop
[14:14] {dptl} out half
[14:15] {dptl} 1:2 out more
[14:15] {JoebiWan} thnx dp
01[14:16] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:16] {dptl} and out on trail
[14:16] {dptl} :)
[14:19] {dptl} well ...with fees almost black :)
[14:21] {nemo} IWM next leg coming
[14:22] {dptl} i have to cut down on number of trades...fees are dragging down
[14:23] {dptl} need that only good trades button :)
[14:26] {dino} fwiw dp, i've cut my trading in half. was giving too much back
[14:26] {nemo} this market has been really hard to trade for a while now
[14:26] {dino} yes, missing volume, lots of dead times
[14:27] {nemo} not to mention with the CBs supporting the markets, nobody has a reason to sell
[14:27] {dino} well thats just btfd
[14:27] {nemo} yep
[14:34] {dino} twx spike
[14:41] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[14:43] {dptl} Vad, do you like dis .60 br short?
01[14:43] {@Threei}  yes
[14:44] {dptl} ok, are you gonna take it? :)
01[14:44] {@Threei}  why not
[14:45] {nemo} it's following
[14:46] {dptl} ok..i think there is room for 20c or so
[14:46] {nemo} it's following the market
[14:47] {dptl} well ...its a bit weeker
[14:47] {nemo} no look at spy and dis
[14:47] {dptl} looking
[14:47] {nemo} spy comes in you should be o.k.
[14:49] {nemo} JPM raise their dividend?
01[14:50] {@Threei}  don't see it
[14:52] {dptl} damn it
[14:52] {dptl} lol
[14:52] {dptl} didt get it
[14:52] {nemo} it broke, but it hasn't gotten anywhere yet
[14:52] {nemo} vwap is .47ish, but it depends on what SPY does
[14:53] {dino} otic spike
[14:55] {dptl} well, now i dont know
[14:55] {nemo} see
[14:56] {dptl} yeah..good i cancel on time looks like
01[14:56] {@Threei}  after such fast dive almost in 1:1, of course
[14:56] {nemo} hah?
[14:56] {dptl} it reached .51 yes
01[14:57] {@Threei}  ?
01[14:57] {@Threei}  hah what?
[14:57] {dptl} or .52
[14:57] {nemo} IWM long?
[14:58] {nemo} now it's hinting at weakness
[14:58] {nemo} DIS that is
[14:59] {nemo} higher low though, with SPY and IWM about to trigger higher
[14:59] {dptl} well set up is gone now...hard to tell
[15:00] {dino} comp 80 pt range
[15:10] {dptl} well, ok..i have to leave a bit early today, so will see you all tomorrow, :)
[15:11] {dino} cya dp
[15:12] {JoebiWan} bye dp
01[15:12] {@Threei}  take care dp
[15:16] {nemo} interesting chart on IWM break of .05 long or .00 short
[15:19] {nemo} http://goo.gl/Bxe4yv
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:29] {@Threei}  still valid
01[15:29] {@Threei}  let's go VXX
01[15:29] {@Threei}  let's drop SPY
[15:31] {JoebiWan} use that 2x4
[15:33] {nemo} what a turn around IWM made
[15:33] {nemo} huge engulfing flag on the daily...
01[15:36] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:36] {@Threei}  misread last direction it seems
[15:36] {nemo} spy has to drop below 206 on volume to get vxx moving
01[15:38] {@Threei}  and it looks rather breakoutish instead
01[15:39] {@Threei}  not enough confidence to go long though
[15:42] {nemo} you might short the vix ihere
01[15:43] {@Threei}  .25 break IWM was right trigger
01[15:43] {@Threei}  in restrospect
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:48] {JoebiWan} thnx cya
[15:52] {nemo} can they close the SPY gap before the close
[15:53] {dino} yes
[15:53] {dino} dji too perhaps
[15:54] {nemo} we don't get a meaninful pullback imo until the get the IWM to new ATHs
[15:55] {nemo} but that might not matter either with the CBs buying hand over fist with mouse-click money
[15:55] {dino} nothing matters
[15:55] {nemo} that's why money managers are doing so terribly
01[15:56] {@Threei}  they'd do much bgetetr if they simple went with tape
[15:56] {dino} lot of them bailed october, way off
01[15:56] {@Threei}  instead of trying to outsmart the market
[15:56] {nemo} well, even the normal "tape" correlations are shot
[15:56] {dino} spy filled
01[15:56] {@Threei}  I disagree
01[15:57] {@Threei}  look at the long term chart
[15:57] {nemo} the Central Banks have to keep the pension funds whole
01[15:57] {@Threei}  nowhere was the uptrend broken
[15:57] {dino} the central banks are just trying to keep their and their political bosses jobs
01[15:57] {@Threei}  whi caresd what their motivations are
[15:57] {dino} bingo
01[15:57] {@Threei}  https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10407170_767035190051115_4937534366828982575_n.jpg?oh=341da3001376a3e85cbe4798a98ce2ec&oe=5509BDB4&__gda__=1430516446_3f8b4ed3bce98ab9c6d855aacaf427d1
[15:58] {dino} i trade more on the micro rather than macro issues
[15:58] {dino} except for the btfd. that still works
[15:58] {nemo} yeah, absolutely...but Japan admitted they're buying stocks, just because other CBs haven't said it doesn't mean they aren't
01[15:59] {@Threei}  if I were a politial activist, I'd talk about central banks and their masters
01[15:59] {@Threei}  being a trader, I am interested only in what it is theyr are doing
01[15:59] {@Threei}  and the tape answers that question clearly
[15:59] {nemo} true, but we're having alot of flat days
01[15:59] {@Threei}  so what
01[15:59] {@Threei}  no trend goes without those
01[15:59] {@Threei}  or without pullbacks
01[16:00] {@Threei}  trend is intact until it's broken
[16:00] {dino} more like rotation nemo. wait for new year, nwe groups will lead
[16:00] {nemo} No...we're having A LOT of flat days
01[16:00] {@Threei}  flat days do not break it
01[16:00] {@Threei}  pullbacks do not break it
01[16:00] {@Threei}  what breaks it is a trend reversal
01[16:00] {@Threei}  and that can not be read in advance
01[16:00] {@Threei}  it reads only after it happens
01[16:01] {@Threei}  those flat days only allow a trend to consokidate
01[16:01] {@Threei}  and new suckers come and short
[16:01] {dino} imo, when the worlds central bankers all get toegther and say they are easing/buying, you cannot fight it even if our fed remains neutral.
01[16:01] {@Threei}  only to be killed in the next phase
[16:02] {dino} some of that nemo, is lack of volume/participants. we do not have the traders we used to have
[16:02] {nemo} Or, nobody to sell
[16:02] {nemo} got a Fed put
[16:02] {nemo} why sell
[16:03] {dino} exactly
[16:03] {dino} buy and hold is alive again (until it isn't)
[16:03] {nemo} Plus, you have the central banks printing mouseclick money and buying the market...no skin in the game
[16:03] {nemo} But they have printing power
[16:04] {dino} as it has always been
[16:04] {dino} imo, the euro f#cked it all up. by giving up individual currencies, this crisis has been extended by years
[16:05] {dino} in any case, gn all