Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Dec 16 2014

Very strong day again, with juicy 1:2 to 1:4 plays all over. Still no complaints about pre-FOMC days

Session Time: Tue Dec 16 00:00:00 2014

[09:02] {dptl} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:19] {nemo} http://goo.gl/G1bftV
01[09:20] {@Threei}  O’Neill was uninjured, the five intruders all suffered injuries and remain hospitalized,
01[09:20] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:20] {@Threei}  good for him
[09:20] {nemo} unfortunately the assholes will recover
[09:25] {JoebiWan} surprised they werent shot
01[09:25] {@Threei}  I am too
[09:25] {nemo} Yeah...funny, I was having a self-defense discussion with my left wing German Professor friend last night...oy vay
01[09:25] {@Threei}  I can only imagine
01[09:26] {@Threei}  smile and don't offend, and no one will touch you
[09:26] {nemo} I was in Cambridge, MA no less
[09:26] {nemo} frickin' most concentrated bastion of leftists in the country
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TLM +50% (Repsol buying company for $8/shr cash)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SLXP +5.5% (initial FY15 guidance)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCEL +4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SPWR +2.5% (positive broker commentary)
[09:27] {nemo} actually, if he dislocated their knees, they might not make a full recovery...tends to disrupt the blood supply to the lower leg
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -FRO -14% (entered private debt-for-stock exchange agreement)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -YNDX -8% (Russian rate hike & ruble devaluation; MBT, QIWI, VIP all also down between 4-8% on the news)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EXAS -5% (selling 4M shares to Jefferies & Robert Baird)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BLMN -3.1% (initial FY15 guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -KO -1.2% (guided FY14 currency neutral EPS growth expected to be 4-6% currency headwind)
[09:29] {ese} gm for a few minutes......
[09:29] {nemo} jeez, almost right on queue
01[09:29] {@Threei}  ese (insert smile for a few min)
[09:29] {ese} lol
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .25 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:34] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .50 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:37] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:38] {@Threei}  valid again
01[09:38] {@Threei}  invalidated again
01[09:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  77 break hl
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:41] {JoebiWan} out fb ty
01[09:41] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:4
[09:42] {JoebiWan} dal
01[09:42] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break hl
01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:42] {@Threei}  leaving it be
01[09:42] {@Threei}  3 invalidation, it just wastes our time
01[09:44] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  88 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:46] {Jenh} gm
01[09:47] {@Threei}  jen :)
[09:47] {nemo} spy probable gap fill then 200.25 pivot/50 day
[09:48] {RonS} seeing new exchange on Level 2...wemm  anyone hear of it?
01[09:50] {@Threei}  WEMM | P | WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
01[09:50] {@Threei}  http://www.level2stockquotes.com/market-makers-w-list.html
[09:50] {RonS} thanks
[09:50] {ese} no...interesting
[09:51] {ese} L rfmd .00
01[09:54] {@Threei}  trail to .06
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  77 break hl
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:59] {nemo} two way
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1  MCD
01[10:00] {@Threei}  yeah, FB ]was two-sided
[10:01] {nemo} two "faced"
[10:01] {nemo} Ron
01[10:01] {@Threei}  not bad actually
[10:02] {nemo} tna
[10:02] {nemo} sorry
[10:05] {RonS} my .vix quote is jumping all over the place...anyone else seeing that?
01[10:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[10:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:06] {@Threei}  no go
[10:06] {RonS} 21 then 24.88 then 21.55 etc
01[10:07] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[10:07] {dptl} ty
01[10:07] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:07] {nemo} TSLA running out of........gas
01[10:08] {@Threei}  wow... Ron, he is really trying to outron you
[10:08] {RonS} tsla zapped?
[10:08] {nemo} it's not difficult
[10:09] {RonS} think headline...gotta be short, not a feakin encyclopedia
[10:09] {RonS} +r
[10:10] {RonS} gild geld
[10:10] {nemo} mixing metaphors
[10:10] {nemo} you cutting gild's member off?
[10:14] {nemo} wow FB
[10:14] {nemo} buck to the short side
01[10:16] {@Threei}  wow
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  change to .60
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:18] {@Threei}  (RU) US Sec State Kerry: Russia has made some constructive choices on Ukraine over recent days - Sanctions were designed to impose costs on Russia for moves in Crimea and Ukraine- Oil prices, not just sanctions, are hurting the ruble- Sanctions could have been lifted months ago, could be lifted in days depending on Russia's choices
01[10:18] {@Threei}  what constructive choices?
02[10:18] * Disconnected
Session Close: Tue Dec 16 10:18:40 2014

Session Start: Tue Dec 16 10:18:40 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[10:18] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[10:18] * Rejoined channel #discussions
[10:18] {nemo} SPY going for 200 then pivot
01[10:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[10:19] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:19] {dino} cyber sm l .02
01[10:20] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:20] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:23] {Threei}  closed on a trail
[10:23] {dptl} ty
01[10:24] {Threei}  yw
[10:35] {dptl} .
[10:37] {RonS} 3i to join in?  Turkey's Erdogan is at war with a Twitter account http://bloom.bg/1IXIenn
01[10:38] {Threei}  lol
01[10:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[10:40] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:40] {RonS} mfrm gone soft
01[10:41] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:43] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:44] {Threei}  closed last part
[10:44] {nemo} choppy day
01[10:45] {Threei}  MCD
01[10:45] {Threei}  what the deuce
01[10:46] {Threei}  MCD Ticking higher on speculation that an activist investor could get involved in the company
01[10:46] {Threei}  ??
01[10:46] {Threei}  dino, ron... must be your client
[10:50] {dptl} anybody have logix quote issue ?
[10:51] {JoebiWan} yeah
[10:51] {nemo} yeah, just locked up
01[10:51] {Threei}  looks frozen
[10:51] {nemo} there she goes
01[10:51] {Threei}  ok, catching up
[10:51] {dptl} ok
01[10:51] {Threei}  wow... MCD is still at it
[10:52] {RonS} wow ese MACK 10.50ish
[10:52] {nemo} UAL
[11:02] {dino} gild sm l .02
[11:05] {nemo} VXXX
[11:18] {dptl} watching dal .35 break sh
[11:22] {dino} out gild .50, +.48
[11:22] {dptl} got away
[11:22] {JoebiWan} gj dino
[11:22] {dino} ty
[11:23] {dino} out cybr .82, +.80
01[11:24] {Threei}  wtg
[11:24] {dino} ty
01[11:24] {Threei} Short Setup: MCD  90 break
01[11:24] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:24] {Threei}  Invalidated
[11:30] {nemo} VXX
[11:30] {nemo} spy bottomed 38.2 and retraced all the way back to the 23.6
[11:33] {dptl} watching luv .25 break sh if holds .35
[11:36] {dino} out mei .31, +.81
[11:36] {Jenh} wow gj!
[11:41] {dino} ty
[11:43] {dptl} stopped luv
[11:49] {RonS} whr draining
[11:49] {RonS} guidance cut
[11:50] {dptl} bhp .10 break sh if holds .20
01[11:53] {Threei}  The dramatic collapse of the Russian Ruble is in sharp focus this morning. The ruble had gained around 8% after the Russian Central Bank raised rates by 650 basis points to 17% from 10.5% on Monday afternoon (early Tuesday morning local time), but those gains vaporized as USD/RUB shot up to 79 and then settled around 72.80 in mid-morning trade. The ruble is now down by more than 20% against the dollar on the week and down by 56% YTD.
01[11:54] {Threei}  rare case in history when aggression is being punished this quickly and severely
[11:55] {dino} nice to ser
[11:55] {dino} see
[11:55] {RonS} thank the Saudis
[11:56] {dino} indeed, for once they went against opec
[11:56] {RonS} and fracking
[11:57] {dino} yes, unfortunately, that too
01[11:58] {Threei}  I think Saudis had no choice
01[11:58] {Threei}  they tried to cut production back in 80s
01[11:59] {Threei}  it didn't help the price but they lost sales and markets to those who were continue selling
01[11:59] {Threei}  so this time around they simply decided to keep the markets
[12:00] {dino} big question is, for how long? been looking at jan 2015 calls uso, oco
[12:00] {dino} jan 2016 i mean
[12:01] {dptl} trailing to .16 bhp
01[12:02] {Threei}  don't know dino... as pure trading maybe, but long term oil doesn't look good to me
[12:04] {dino} yeah, time is the big question, thats why i'm leaning towards buying lots of time
[12:05] {dino} taking an hour break
[12:05] {RonS} besides, ese says oil is dead...after all, his wife has an electric car
01[12:06] {Threei}  and students want the same
[12:07] {dino} lol
01[12:12] {Threei} Short Setup: MCD  90 break
01[12:12] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:13] {nemo} some volatility today
[12:13] {nemo} avg spy bare change is .16 right now
01[12:18] {Threei}  no go
[12:26] {JoebiWan} rig .90 short?
01[12:28] {Threei}  can't tell
[12:35] {dptl} no go rig...
01[12:37] {Threei}  stop trading everything in sight
[12:38] {nemo} Hey Padawan, I'd be careful shorting the oil complex today, you're likely better off finding a place to get long
[12:39] {nemo} after so many days down, the odds are beginning to work against a short play
[12:39] {nemo} notice uso just bounced at vwap
[12:39] {cosmo} the oil drop, like others in the past, is just a conspiracy to kill solar and such...
[12:40] {nemo} means value is being found there, hasn't been the case
[12:40] {nemo} whatever the reason, respect the price action
[12:40] {nemo} imo
[12:40] {dptl} bhp forming c&h looks like
[12:40] {JoebiWan} thans nemo. thats why i asked
[12:40] {JoebiWan} thanks
[12:47] {dptl} hal 39 short?
[12:48] {dptl} nah
[12:48] {dptl} stepping out for a bit
[12:51] {nemo} see the action in rig Padawan...choppy
[12:52] {JoebiWan} yeah, time of day too?
[12:52] {nemo} yep, but looks like oil is trying to make a bottom
[12:52] {nemo} sucks not having Les to pick on
[12:57] {nemo} VXX
[12:57] {nemo} if it holds support look for .50 break
[12:58] {nemo} there ya go
[12:59] {nemo} set stop below .50
[12:59] {nemo} .85 target
[13:00] {nemo} arguably support @.42
[13:02] {nemo} http://goo.gl/svva5r
01[13:03] {Threei}  (US) White House Press Sec Earnest: President Obama will be signing the spending legislation when the final version is complete; also intends to sign Russia sanctions legislation - Administration still has concerns about the current sanctions legislation; Pres Obama likely to sign the sanctions bill before the end of the week- Will not speculate on the SPR; strategic petroleum reserve is not intended to to impact the price of oil
[13:03] {nemo} possible repeat of the setup
[13:07] {nemo} spy coming into vwap
01[13:14] {Threei}  In a statement to Business Insider, FXCM said:
01[13:14] {Threei}  "Please be advised that that most Western Banks have stopped pricing USD/RUB. As such, FXCM can no longer offer this instrument to our clients and will begin closing any existing client trades in USD/RUB effective at Noon EST today, December 16th, 2014."
[13:15] {nemo} that's why Putin was doing the nuclear drills...distraction
[13:19] {dino} hmm, i take an hor break and dji drops almost 200 pts
01[13:20] {Threei}  let's test it again, and if works, we short the bejeezes out of da market and pay you to leave
[13:23] {dino} hor=hour
[13:23] {dino} ok, tell me when to leave
[13:23] {nemo} yesterday
[13:24] {dino} my nose bleeding? think i just got tagged
[13:24] {nemo} wuss
[13:24] {dino} ;)
[13:24] {nemo} you see this dino:  http://goo.gl/svva5r
[13:25] {nemo} wrong one...sorry:
[13:25] {nemo} http://goo.gl/G1bftV
01[13:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[13:26] {Threei}  change to .10
[13:27] {nemo} wow
01[13:27] {Threei}  If holds  114
[13:27] {nemo} no bid
01[13:27] {Threei}  change to .05
01[13:27] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[13:28] {nemo} no volume
[13:29] {nemo} now ur getting volume
01[13:29] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[13:37] {Threei}  got away
[13:45] {nemo} spy hit yhesterday's close and bounced
[13:45] {nemo} well give or take a little
[13:46] {nemo} shit...it's this volatile and we haven't got out of lunch yet...STRAP IN!!!!
[13:46] {nemo} I want a down limit open!!!!!
01[13:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .75 break
01[13:49] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[13:51] {nemo} .80 resistance
01[13:51] {Threei}  yea
01[13:51] {Threei}  wanted aggressive
[13:51] {dptl} .65 was safer
[13:51] {nemo} frickin armchair quarterback
[13:51] {dptl} but will see
01[13:52] {Threei}  .60 eas safer yet
01[13:52] {Threei}  when someone finds out how to get absolute bottom, I am all ear
[13:52] {nemo} this is SPY:  pivot, 50 day vwap
01[13:58] {Threei}  1:1
[13:59] {nemo} VXX
[14:00] {nemo} nice setup break of .95 1:2 and wham!
01[14:01] {Threei}  1:2
[14:03] {Jenh} g2g. good night! see you all tomorrow
01[14:04] {Threei}  take care jen
01[14:07] {Threei}  1:3
01[14:08] {Threei}  1:4
01[14:08] {Threei}  out
[14:08] {dptl} ty
01[14:08] {Threei}  yw
[14:08] {JoebiWan} ty  nice trade
01[14:08] {Threei}  all who criticized my entry, pour ashes on your head
[14:08] {dptl} still in some
[14:08] {JoebiWan} lol
01[14:09] {Threei}  sure thing jw
01[14:09] {Threei}  1:5
06[14:09] * Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
[14:09] {nemo} yeah, not sure why you didn't trail under the hole
[14:09] {nemo} whole
[14:10] {dptl} out
[14:18] {nemo} Wer reitet so spät durch Nacht und Wind?
[14:18] {nemo} Es ist der Vater mit seinem Kind;
[14:18] {nemo} Er hat den Knaben wohl in dem Arm,
[14:19] {dptl} right
[14:19] {nemo} Er faßt ihn sicher, er hält ihn warm.
[14:21] {nemo} one of my favorite Goethe poems:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Erlk%C3%B6nig
[14:25] {JoebiWan} german stories known for happy endings....
[14:25] {RonS} Goethe always stuck in my craw...
[14:25] {nemo} since when
[14:26] {JoebiWan} never
[14:26] {nemo} I had a beautiful copy of Faust from the Folio Society
01[14:27] {Threei}  that's one shop that knows how to make beautiful books
[14:29] {dptl} lol, look at bhp chart
01[14:30] {Threei}  full twitter of conspiracies I guess... and idiotic nanlecx charts
01[14:30] {Threei}  "damn HFT"
[14:40] {dptl} .54 sort may be bhp
[14:40] {dptl} or short
01[14:41] {Threei}  make up your mind
[14:41] {dptl} may be even now agressive
[14:42] {dptl} .66stop
[14:47] {dptl} trying small sh small stop
[14:47] {dino} feye sm l .01
[14:50] {dino} stop feye flat, mkt drop
[14:53] {dptl} stop to .61
[14:59] {dptl} to .51
[15:04] {dptl} to .46
[15:11] {dptl} ok have to close it here1:2, got to go ...see ya tomorrow all
01[15:12] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:15] {pamsv} thanks all - cu tmrw
01[15:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:16] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:16] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:19] {Threei}  valid again
01[15:24] {Threei}  1:1
01[15:24] {Threei}  1:2
01[15:25] {Threei}  1:3
[15:25] {JoebiWan} sweet
01[15:25] {Threei}  1:4
01[15:25] {Threei}  done
[15:25] {JoebiWan} nice way to finish, ty
01[15:25] {Threei}  yw
01[15:26] {Threei}  (insert... well, you know)
[15:27] {nemo} why not trail, this could cascade into the close
[15:27] {dino} gj
01[15:29] {Threei}  ty
01[15:29] {Threei}  I just don't trade like this
01[15:30] {Threei}  when my read says move ix exhausted, I close the trade
01[15:30] {Threei}  "could do this or that" is simply not in my arsenal
[15:30] {nemo} just a trailing stop
01[15:30] {Threei}  yes
01[15:30] {Threei}  and it was hit
[15:30] {nemo} ahhh
01[15:31] {Threei}  after 1:4 it dropped under 1:3
01[15:45] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:45] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:45] {JoebiWan} ty gn
[15:50] {dino} gn