Friday, January 23, 2015

Jan 23 2015

Two 1:4 trades and two scalps in first 30 minutes, not too shabby. First one was on SBUX short, second is presented on the screenshot:

Ending with another 1:4 on VXX, the best day of the uneven week.

Session Time: Fri Jan 23 00:00:00 2015
[08:50] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:50] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:05] {dino} gm
01[09:05] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {RonS} gm...mea culpa dino, that input on fxe sucked
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {RonS} ups wrecked
[09:12] {RonS} kmb wiped
01[09:13] {@Threei}  EUR/USD at fresh 11-year lows below the 1.1250 area.
01[09:13] {@Threei}  - Focus turns to the weekend Greek parliamentary elections to see if anti-austerity party takes over
01[09:14] {@Threei}  - Crude Oil initially spiked up almost 3% to near $47.80 after confirmed death of Saudi Arabia's King Adbullah despite the well-articulated succession plan. WTI gave back all of its gains after new Saudi King Salman stated that he would maintain the policies of predecessor
[09:21] {RonS} rcl ccl cruising
[09:23] {dino} lol
[09:24] {RonS} Expedia Buys Travelocity From Sabre for $280 Mln in Cash
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -INFN +15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VTAE +8.5% (priced 3M shares at $11.90)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ETFC +6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MXIM +5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SBUX +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LULU +4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MIK +2.2% (priced 18.8M shares at $23.52)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LNKD +2.2% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LF -32% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DWA -15% (restructuring plan & 5K jobs cut)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -UPS -7% (guided Q4 below estimates)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ZFGN -5.5% (priced 3.9M shares at $35)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KMB -4.6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ALTR -4.1% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FDX -2.5% (momentum from UPS news)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCX -1.6% (negative broker commentary)
[09:27] {dptl} gm
01[09:28] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {RonS} change to have a cup of coffee?
01[09:34] {@Threei}  one thing I surely hate about SBUX is their coffee :)
[09:34] {RonS} wow syf
01[09:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .90 break0 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  87
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:36] {@Threei}  out
[09:36] {JoebiWan} gj
01[09:36] {@Threei}  ty
[09:36] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[09:36] {@Threei}  maybe that'll teach you how to brew that crap, SBUX
01[09:36] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:37] {@Threei}  and btw, as it was not enough to kill such a great drink, they try the same with tea now, via crap they sell in Teatopia
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  late
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:42] {@Threei}  stop .59
01[09:42] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:42] {@Threei}  .64 now
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:45] {@Threei}  stop to .34
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:47] {@Threei}  P Seeing early call activityJan weekly calls active
[09:47] {cosmo} so coffee was a great drink before SBUX?
[09:47] {cosmo} and now its no more?
01[09:49] {@Threei}  not in their stores
01[09:50] {@Threei}  and then there is such thing as contagion - more people are taught to think this is how coffee should taste, and they buy that and demand that, so more shops follow the suit... getting the picture?
[09:50] {cosmo} I know their stores have a very characteristic odor about them
[09:50] {cosmo} unlike Pete's, etc
[09:53] {RonS} guess must be bad, sbux stock up 13,000% since 1992 ipo
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .20 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:54] {nemo} why is it up?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  two-suded
01[09:54] {@Threei}  sided
[09:54] {nemo} yeah, vwap just under 17
[09:55] {nemo} watch UPS
[09:56] {RonS} upi pulpating again
[09:57] {RonS} sorry uri
[09:58] {RonS} ups volume profile to the downside is cliffish
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.04M V 5.08ME
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC LEADING INDEX: 0.5% V 0.4%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:02] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:03] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:06] {@Threei}  closed
01[10:23] {@Threei}  FDX Halted; reaffirms FY15 guidance $8.50-9.00 v $8.94e
[10:25] {RonS} FedEx: Outlook Assumes Continued Moderate Economic Growth and Modest Net Benefit From Fuel
[10:25] {RonS} lol
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
[10:35] {pamsv} vxx
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:35] {pamsv} oops wrong window
01[10:41] {@Threei}  stop to .39
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {nemo} wake up Vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  lol
[10:45] {JoebiWan} great morning, ty vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:45] {@Threei}  100%
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:47] {@Threei}  closed
[10:57] {JoebiWan} gotta run. cya all
[10:57] {dino} cya
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take care jw
01[11:33] {@Threei}  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered the Russian government negotiations with the European Union on the "possibilities of a cooperation in a joint trade area" in exchange for a comprehensive resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine
[11:35] {RonS} come to Colorado, we're already trading joints...
01[11:37] {@Threei}  joints?
01[11:37] {@Threei}  ah
01[11:37] {@Threei}  lol
[11:37] {nemo} spleef
01[11:37] {@Threei}  so... rebels declare they are going to push on with offensive
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EY commissions allowed member countries weapin supplies to Ukraine
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EU
01[11:39] {@Threei}  and Putin purges his inner circle, getting rid of olygarchs and keeping war hawks closer
01[11:39] {@Threei}  getting a feel where this is going?
[11:41] {dino} yes, unfortunately
[11:52] {dino} hlf spike
01[11:54] {@Threei}  HLF CNBC's Wapner: Post holdings's Stiritz (approx 8% holder) is buying more shares though not enough to trigger a new SEC filing; has not sold any of his stake
01[12:10] {@Threei}  Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the 79-year old brother of the king and a former Minister of Defense, was installed as the new monarch. Reports suggest he is in poor health and possibly has dementia, with the complicated royal family riven by factional disputes
01[12:10] {@Threei}  so... with Greek election over the weekend, will we see any drop toward eod?
[12:31] {nemo} I think it's a foregone conclusion, probably see vxx move though
01[12:34] {@Threei}  dunno... we exected the dame last Friday, never came to be
01[12:34] {@Threei}  the same
[12:34] {nemo} had a .50 upmove at the end of the day
01[12:34] {@Threei}  yeah, on last 30 seconds
01[12:35] {@Threei}  untradable
[12:35] {nemo} it was tradeable for those with brass ones
[12:38] {RonS} like brady talkin about his balls?
01[12:39] {@Threei}  underinflated?
[12:39] {nemo} yep
01[12:47] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[12:47] {@Threei}  Vegetarians live up to nine years longer. Nine horrible, tedious, meaningless, worthless, baconless, cheeseburgerless, meatless years.
[12:47] {nemo} They probably don't drink either
01[12:53] {@Threei}  another from the same guy: If anyone's interested, I am going to sign the books in B&N today after 2 pm, and till security escorts me out
01[13:23] {@Threei}  uh oh... we might need those wooden stakes, silver stakes and whatever else we find:
01[13:23] {@Threei}  (BR) Brazil Central Bank's Tombini: EU stimulus package will help revive animal spirits in Europe
[13:24] {RonS} some net guy said yesterday: who is left to do QE?  Cuba?
01[13:24] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:24] {@Threei}  Zimbabwe?
01[13:25] {@Threei}  wait...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  they don't have to, deflation is not their problem
[13:25] {RonS} oh Canada!...  but you guys have inflation...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  we so do
[13:26] {RonS} we do too, they just lie about it
01[13:26] {@Threei}  isn't it amazing how official data can differ from everyday's reality so starkly?
01[13:27] {@Threei}  sure, gasoline price drop can mask a lot of inflation in given time period
01[13:27] {@Threei}  but there is inflation, undoubtedly
[13:28] {nemo} VXX
[13:28] {nemo} sheesh, XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  I tried to calculate yesterday how much money fuel drop can save me, with assumption of prices staying where they are today. Came up with about $1400 - 1600 per hpousehold
01[13:29] {@Threei}  annually of course
[13:29] {nemo} XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  ?
[13:31] {nemo} break of .30 looks interesting
[13:32] {dino} inflation in things you need, deflation in things you want
[13:32] {nemo} I'd like to see deflation of my electric bill but that ain't happening
[13:34] {nemo} when does aapl announce?
01[13:34] {@Threei}  that's a good way to put it dino
01[13:35] {@Threei}  well, except fuel... this we need :)
[13:36] {RonS} but you live on an island, can't you walk everywhere? :)
[13:37] {RonS} get this my wife's sister and husband walked across Britain
[13:37] {nemo} IWM looks short
[13:37] {RonS} but he's a preacher so manybe he floated...
[13:37] {nemo} needs to hold below vwap
01[13:37] {@Threei}  well... I am not that heroic, I prefer driving :)
01[13:38] {@Threei}  unfortunately, mine is not this little catroonish island with one palm tree in the middle and beach all around {G}
[13:39] {RonS} lol
[13:39] {nemo} anybody get XOP...just went 1:4
01[13:40] {@Threei}  VLO *INCREASES DIVIDEND 45% TO $0.40 FROM $0.275
01[13:40] {@Threei}  cool call nemo
01[13:40] {@Threei}  nice setup
[13:41] {nemo} needs to hold .64
[13:41] {nemo} 46ish in cards
[13:44] {dino} gj
01[13:56] {@Threei}  VXX is tempting on 31 break but I'll resist temptation
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if it breaks will wait for a rinse
[13:56] {nemo} early yet
[13:57] {nemo} the other thing is aapl I think announces on's the big kahuna in so many indexes, withou it being weak, hard for stuff to go down
[13:59] {RonS} these guys show tues amc but the aterisk means "unconfirmed":
[13:59] {nemo} then it's Tuesday
[14:00] {nemo} It's #1 by weight in the Qs, S&P500, RUT1000
[14:00] {RonS} shows tues as well
[14:00] {RonS} ie
01[14:08] {@Threei}  Tiesday according to TTN calendar
[14:09] {nemo} so appl will be bought into earnings
01[14:09] {@Threei}  notice what VXX did
[14:09] {nemo} which will apply upward pressure on the indexes
01[14:09] {@Threei}  broke, rinsed, and gave 1:1 from .90
01[14:09] {@Threei}  just as foretold
[14:10] {nemo} VXX
[14:10] {nemo} neds to hold above .05
[14:10] {nemo} needs
[14:11] {nemo} IMMHO
[14:11] {nemo} yeah, right
[14:12] {nemo} aapl bounce territory
01[14:12] {@Threei}  (UR) Pro-Russia rebels reportedly reject peace proposal in Ukraine and have begun an offensive - press - Rebel leader Zakharchenko: Launching a new offensive to forestall attack by Ukrainian army to push the government troops to the border of the Donetsk region and possibly beyond.
01[14:13] {@Threei}  a few real time reports over last couple hours, there are advances with heavy equipments in at least two major directions
[14:14] {dino} ukrained is screwed
[14:16] {nemo} support .04 for vxx
[14:17] {nemo} aapl can't get above .30 will likely test 113
[14:17] {nemo} SPY at vwap/channel support
[14:17] {pamsv} ok thanks guys - have a good weekend
01[14:18] {@Threei}  you too pam
01[14:19] {@Threei}  isn't it incredible, how rebels are armed with tanks, multiple rocket launchers, ground-air defense systems etc etc, yet Russia says it doesn't supply them
[14:26] {dptl} good weekend all see you monday
[14:27] {RonS} cya dp
01[14:27] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[14:37] {@Threei}  VXX pullback under .10 will deserve a buy probably
01[14:39] {@Threei}
01[14:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  XOP  .80 break
01[14:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:42] {dino} incy spike
[14:48] {nemo} VXX @vwap
01[14:50] {@Threei}  missed VXX
[14:50] {nemo} I didn't...look at aapl
[14:50] {nemo} test 113
01[15:05] {@Threei}  A lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party has offered his advice to Russians struggling to pay for food amid the country's soaring inflation: "Eat less."
01[15:06] {@Threei}  sounds about right
01[15:08] {@Threei}  drop started a bit too early
01[15:08] {@Threei}  starting to think rally into close
[15:08] {nemo} vwap
[15:13] {cosmo} I'm eating less, but it doesn't help. At some point you have to excercise more.
[15:13] {nemo} duh
[15:17] {dino} lol
[15:18] {nemo} when you eat less your metabolism slows down to compensate for the lower calorie intake partially defeating the purpose for the lower calories
01[15:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[15:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:19] {cosmo} Hibernate bears
[15:20] {cosmo} good advice maybe for russia
01[15:28] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:43] {@Threei}  OK guys, ending for the week
01[15:43] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
01[15:43] {@Threei}  see you monday
[15:43] {RonS} u 2...