Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Jan 28 2015

Session Time: Wed Jan 28 00:00:00 2015
[08:48] {nemo} I think I'll drink until 11:00 then nap and sober up for the 2:15 Fed announcement
01[08:52] {@Threei}  соундс лике а план
[08:52] {dino} gm
01[08:52] {@Threei}  sounds like a plan
01[08:52] {@Threei}  dino :)
[08:53] {nemo} wow, now he thinks he can type in Russian
[08:53] {nemo} is it easier with those fins?
01[08:53] {@Threei}  no, about the same
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Greece PM Tsipras reiterated his view to negotiate debt relief and easing of austerity terms. Priority was to seek compromise with EU peers and to avoid mutually destructive clash
01[09:05] {@Threei}  why avoid it... go right ahead
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Russia Dep Fin Min Moiseev: Might stop holding the FX Deposit auctions
01[09:06] {@Threei}  see? that's how it's done. If we don't like the rate, we cancel the market
[09:14] {RonS} hi everyone
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:23] {nemo} volume somewhat on the light side this morning
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ABMD +38% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ADXS +12% (update on GOF Phase 2 study of Advaxis's Lm-LLO immunotherapy ADXS-HPV)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -FSL +12% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAPL +9% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -X +8.8% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -COMM +7.4% (acquiring telecom, enterprise & wireless business from TEL for $3B)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JRJC +7% (no news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JNPR +6% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TUP +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MNKD +5.2% (CEO transitioning to Executive Chairman, COO Edstrom appointed to CEO position)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -WDC +5.1% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -YHOO +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NBG -25% (continued comments from incoming Greek PM on restructuring of debt relief and austerity programs)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ACAT -17% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PBR -9% (canceled plans to build 2 low sulfur diesel refineries in Northern Brazil)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SYRG -5% (launched & priced 16.2M shares at $10.75/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCAU -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ENR -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -RDWR -3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .05 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:39] {cosmo} JNPR needs to hold 23 a mkt indicator
[09:39] {cosmo} imho
01[09:39] {@Threei}  still valid JPM
01[09:40] {@Threei}  change to 56 break
[09:41] {RonS} jnpr ginned up eh?
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
[09:45] {dino} rdwr sm l .70
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .85 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:53] {@Threei}  stop to .79
01[09:54] {@Threei}  meh
[09:56] {nemo} YHOO
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:59] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:14] {@Threei}  SPY is locked in narrow range
01[10:14] {@Threei}  BBs are toghtening
01[10:14] {@Threei}  i
[10:14] {nemo} 203.80 it's weekly pivot   FED day
[10:15] {dptl} gm
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  81 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:19] {@Threei}  no go
[10:20] {RonS} sm l PH 117.16 s/l be
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:29] {nemo} frickin' fed day
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei}  sigh
[10:33] {nemo} wow vxx jerk around
01[10:33] {@Threei}  total somg
01[10:33] {@Threei}  changing to DKTK
[10:33] {nemo} turn out my drinking idea was a good one
[10:39] {nemo} vxx and spy get to pivot at same time
01[10:47] {@Threei}  to get the direction right and get rinsed like this, hate it
01[10:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[11:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:25] {@Threei}
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:3  FB  close enough
01[11:26] {@Threei}  out
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:32] {@Threei}  some things work nicely
[11:41] {RonS} Oil Inventories Hit Highest Level In 80 Years, Prices Fall Further
01[11:41] {@Threei}  kind of self-sustaining pattern, isn't it
01[11:42] {@Threei}  low price, easier to get larger inventory
01[11:42] {@Threei}  larger inventory pushes price down even more
01[11:42] {@Threei}  and that'll continue until production starts really dropping off
01[11:50] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .70 break
01[11:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:52] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:52] {cosmo} what controls oil production?
[11:53] {cosmo} I'd say its the Earth itself.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  I mean oil producers that have costs and must balance them against prices
01[11:55] {@Threei}  as price drops, those who have higher cost of production will start falling off
01[11:55] {@Threei}  can lower cost producers satisfy the demand while prices stay low?
01[11:55] {@Threei}  that will determine the price ceiling
[11:56] {cosmo} good riddance to fracking
01[11:56] {@Threei}  rather: thank you fracking for establishing that ceiling
01[11:57] {@Threei}  prices will stay under that limit which makes fracking viable again
01[11:57] {@Threei}  how is it not great?
[11:57] {RonS} ya, after 40 years of fracking it is dead...right...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  well, the part of it that is done at higher costs, will die off
01[11:58] {@Threei}  costs vary greatly between regions
[11:58] {cosmo} 90% of the stuff released by the process is "fugitive"; it misses the pipe and goes into the air and groundwater, etc.
[11:59] {cosmo} and is also totally unaccounted for as a greenhouse gas
[11:59] {cosmo} evil tech
01[12:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:06] {dino} rdwr sm l .24
[12:09] {dino} that evil tech is saving people lots of $$
[12:12] {dino} mbly drop
01[12:13] {@Threei}  but that's evil in and of itself... according to do-gooders, fuel must be exp[ensive to discourage its use :)
01[12:13] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:14] {dino} ok, then how about that evil tech out usa back on top
01[12:15] {@Threei}  that's evil too... we need to be cut down to size
[12:15] {dino} as i tell my kids, just because somebody says it's true does not make it true
[12:16] {nemo} yeah, you used to tell them Santa was real
01[12:16] {@Threei}  unless it's left who says that... then it's true just because they said it
01[12:16] {@Threei}  because they are moral
[12:17] {dino} if keeping people down is considered moral
01[12:17] {@Threei}  1:3
[12:17] {cosmo} evil = unconscionably messy = polluting
01[12:18] {@Threei}  day becomes brighter
[12:18] {cosmo} making earthquakes too
01[12:18] {@Threei}  1:4
01[12:18] {@Threei}  out
[12:19] {JoebiWan} gj
[12:19] {dino} gj
01[12:19] {@Threei}  ty
[12:19] {cosmo} and doing this knowingly and playing dumb about it
[12:19] {cosmo} i digress...
01[12:25] {@Threei}  wow FB
[12:26] {JoebiWan} xiv .10 break?
01[12:27] {@Threei}  most likely
01[13:07] {@Threei}  Greek banks are getting hammered again today, with the top four banks down 25% a piece, following two days of massive losses. The Athens stock exchange is down nearly 7%.
01[13:07] {@Threei}  The new coalition government and its European opponents have begun preliminary maneuvers ahead of what will surely be vicious negotiations to restructure the Greek bailout deal. Fears of a run on Greek banks are in the air.
[13:07] {nemo} and the dax is up again almost 1%
01[13:12] {@Threei}  I am sure bets are made that thnis or that way but EU will placate Greece
[13:23] {dptl} fed at 2pm?
[13:24] {dino} eu will extend the loans greatly
01[13:31] {@Threei}  yes dp
[13:31] {dptl} ty
01[13:35] {@Threei}  this is huge problem for EU
01[13:35] {@Threei}  start loosening loan conditions, there arer more countries that will immediately demand the same
01[13:36] {@Threei}  can you say "contagion"
[13:49] {RonS} k, early lunch so ready for the fed jerk around...
[13:56] {nemo} aapl looks long
[13:57] {RonS} wish u said that yesterday...
01[13:58] {@Threei}  lol
[13:58] {nemo} you would have had to hold into the post market
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25%: REMAINS PATIENT - Vote: (prior 7-3)
01[14:01] {@Threei}  (GR) EU's Moscovici: A solution will be found for Greece, EU will keep aiding Greece
[14:02] {RonS} lol...Good news: No more Fed meetings till March
[14:03] {dino} crs drop
[14:04] {dino} sm l .50
[14:06] {nemo} FB
[14:06] {nemo} looks short if it stays under .30ish
[14:07] {nemo} yo rinny
[14:08] {nemo} might find it's way back to vwap
[14:08] {nemo} stop to .25ish
[14:09] {nemo} to .10
[14:09] {dino} rdwr to .19
[14:09] {nemo} out .82
[14:10] {nemo} should be one more "cha" in the indexes
[14:11] {nemo} guess I wussed on that one, shit look at aapl
[14:12] {dino} crs stop -.30
[14:12] {dino} out rdwr .23, +.99
[14:12] {JoebiWan} gj
[14:12] {dino} ty
[14:13] {nemo}
[14:14] {RonS} deep story...
[14:14] {nemo} hahaha
[14:24] {dino} crs sm l .20
01[14:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
01[14:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:27] {@Threei}  nope
[14:34] {dino} crs stop again
01[14:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  49 break
01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[14:36] {dino} snx drop
01[14:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[14:42] {@Threei}  late
[14:43] {dino} snx sm l .01 ave
01[14:43] {@Threei}  if pullsa bck before hitting 1:1, maybe
01[14:43] {@Threei}  let it drop under .65
01[14:43] {@Threei}  and see if it recrosses
01[14:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[14:45] {nemo} VMW looks short
[14:45] {nemo} here or below .90 stop above .05
01[14:46] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:48] {dino} out snx .40, +.39
[14:48] {nemo} stop to .90
[14:50] {nemo} out .92
[14:50] {nemo} frig
01[14:52] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:53] {dino} dia smr l .70
01[14:53] {@Threei}  FB is our savior today
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:3
[14:54] {dino} rdwr good to me, 2/2 on it, 1.39 in all
01[14:54] {@Threei}  nice
[14:54] {nemo} I took it south (not far enough) any you took it north
01[14:54] {@Threei}  how do you manage to make it sound dirty?
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:55] {dino} lol
01[14:55] {@Threei}  out
[14:55] {nemo} ahhh...your inference is not my implication
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I dunno... it just has to be your fault
[14:55] {RonS} plus it still sounded dirty...
[14:56] {nemo} well, it's not like we did it at the same time
[14:56] {nemo} o.k.
[14:56] {nemo} that better
[14:56] {dino} dia stopped flat, whipping around
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:6
01[14:57] {@Threei}  grrr
01[15:00] {@Threei}  finally major news of the day comes
[15:00] {RonS} thank least 1 qe in the chamber
01[15:01] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  50
01[15:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:07] {@Threei}  want 1:5
01[15:10] {@Threei}  ok... out
01[15:11] {@Threei}  ugh... rinsed last piece
01[15:11] {@Threei}  this kind of statements amaze:
01[15:11] {@Threei}  IMF's Vinals: Fed should not rush to raise interest rates as inflation is not a concern in the US
01[15:12] {@Threei}  what vusiness do you have to tell US what to do??
01[15:13] {@Threei}  1:5
01[15:17] {@Threei}  sheesh... unstoppable
[15:18] {dptl} gn all see ya tomorrow
01[15:20] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:34] {@Threei}  one last bounce should be close somwhere
[15:36] {dino} 17241 has been strong bounce area for last 30 days
[15:36] {dino} below that 17087
01[15:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[15:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:37] {dino} pattern of slightly lower highs building, but so far not lower lows
01[15:38] {@Threei}  sigh
01[15:39] {@Threei}  not liking today, despite a few very nice trades
01[15:43] {@Threei}  after VXX entry should have just fainted, and come out of it just about now
[15:43] {nemo} or drank yourself unconscious
01[15:44] {@Threei}  $2.20 ago
[15:44] {nemo} I've always wondered why you just don't leave a little on
01[15:45] {@Threei}  because it hit trailing stop?
01[15:45] {@Threei}  how often di they go like this, in almost straight line, vs reverse?
[15:45] {dino} cybr gap around 33.80
[15:45] {nemo} it's Greece
[15:46] {dino} sure its not greek
[15:47] {nemo} it's a big part...they are now a black hole in the EU model
[15:47] {dino} this greece thing doesn't really happen until march
[15:47] {nemo} when actually is dawn and sunset dino?
[15:48] {nemo} uncertainty is the bane of markets
[15:48] {dino} ??? sure, but the decision is in march from what i can find
[15:48] {nemo} is this a canary in the coal mine or just a drunk to kick out the door
[15:48] {nemo} no, decision was the elections
[15:49] {nemo} you have the far left and right in think there will be middle of the road compromise?
[15:49] {dino} no, he's already backpeddeling. prior to election he said default, now aking for lengthening of payoff timetable
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thanks guys, finishing for the day
[15:49] {dino} take care 3i
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {nemo} That's what we read...and if that happens then comes Spain, Portugal, Italy...etc
[15:50] {nemo} black hole of uncertainty in Europe has raised it's ugly head...volatility's back!
[15:50] {dino} sure nemo, but gut says lengthening does not hurt them that much, think brady bonds
[15:50] {dino} default and exit is the fear
[15:51] {nemo} we're headed into the fog of this Keynesian experiment, there be dragons ahead
[15:51] {nemo} it'
[15:51] {nemo} you have currency wars now
[15:51] {dino} ironically, if i were the greels, default/exit are what i woud recommend, within a year things would get better
[15:52] {dino} greeks
[15:52] {dino} would, sheesh
[15:52] {nemo} probably, then come the Italians, Spaniards, and Portugese
[15:52] {nemo} the Euro structure is an abortion
[15:52] {dino} sure, one defaults and euro is dead
[15:52] {nemo} right, so then a vacuum ensues...
[15:53] {nemo} Financial dramamine required
[15:53] {dino} big question is "if a default occurs", still not sure it happens. debt extensions yes.
[15:53] {nemo} What do you do with trillons in Euro denominated bonds?
[15:53] {nemo} that's right, uncertainty
[15:53] {nemo} exactly my point
[15:54] {dino} what do you do? you get rid of them now
[15:54] {nemo} I have no idea all we know is uncertainty creates volatility
[15:54] {nemo} you go to what you know
[15:55] {nemo} what currencies can you be sure of?
[15:55] {dino} hearing rumors canadian housing market was propped up by oil, could be trouble up there
[15:55] {nemo} absolutely
[15:56] {dino} currencies, have to go the usd. that and softening of others currencies should keep rate increase at bay
01[15:56] {@Threei}  not that simple
01[15:56] {@Threei}  it's true for Alberta
[15:56] {nemo} two good things about the's reserve, and it's diversified as to underpinning value
01[15:56] {@Threei}  other provinces are more likely to benefit from oil drop
[15:56] {nemo} CAD is resource based
[15:57] {dino} yes, not just oil pain, copper, iron, etc
01[15:57] {@Threei}  re market is surely heated here but how much of that is OVERheated is very diffficult to say
01[15:57] {@Threei}  there was never subprime lending here
[15:57] {nemo} well, you'll know next GDP report with $45 oil
01[15:58] {@Threei}  sure but there is no direct connection to RE
[15:58] {dino} well, thats all for me, gn guys
01[15:58] {@Threei}  plenty of industries were suppressed by high oil and high CDN
01[15:58] {@Threei}  they are raising exports now
01[15:58] {@Threei}  and hiring