Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Apr 15 2105

Very solid day with a lot of nice plays. Notably, CELG 1:4 was the one that put us that far over the goal line that we could try and push for more without risking much.

Session Time: Wed Apr 15 00:00:00 2015
[09:04] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:04] {drewj} gm guys
[09:05] {jfjf64} Mornin all
01[09:06] {@Threei}  drew, jf :)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -CLSN +27% (announced positive data from Phase 2 DIGNITY study)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -OTIV +12% (engaged Houlihan Lokey to explore strategic alternatives)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -ANGI +11% (CEO stepping down; raising FY15 Adj EBITDA guidance range)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -SWHC +11% (raised Q4 guidance)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -FOMX +8% (upsized offering to $60M v. $50M)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -KITE +5% (Jefferies presentation today)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -MBLY +4.4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -FXCM +3.7% (MAR metrics)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -PNK +3.6% (Gaming & Leisure reportedly raised offer for PNK's real estate assets)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -CNHI +3.6% (confirmed 2015 outlook; expects to lower capex in '15)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -ALU -16% (confirmed merger with NOK; NOK & ERIC also down marginally while CIEN & JNPR up marginally on the news)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -STWD -2.3% (announced offering of 12M shares)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .70 break hl
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:32] {@Threei}  change to .75
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:32] {dino} dwti hl l .25
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:35] {dino} out dwti ave .69, +.44
[09:36] {dino} too soon
[09:38] {dino} deck hl l .98
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  83 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {dino} out deck .33, +.35
[09:45] {jfjf64} Dal bounce time
[09:46] {jfjf64} Not
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .50 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:47] {@Threei}  no go
[09:47] {jfjf64} Wow
[09:47] {jfjf64} Need coffee
[09:52] {drewj} Short FB?
[09:53] {dino} fltx spike
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  97 break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {dino} sage spike
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) APR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 56 V 55E
01[10:02] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:11] {@Threei}  1:1  MCD
01[10:11] {@Threei}  out
01[10:12] {@Threei}  1:3  MCD
01[10:12] {@Threei}  1:4... too soon
[10:12] {cosmo} for lunch?
[10:13] {drewj} nice one vad
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:5... grrr
01[10:14] {@Threei}  MCD burger is always too soon for lunch, as far as I am concerned :)
01[10:14] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .40 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:15] {@Threei}  nice doji
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:17] {cosmo} I understand MCD planning for a 3 star, seated service restruant at Machu Picchu soon ....should be special, no?
[10:17] {dino} nsam drop
01[10:18] {@Threei}  do they use local meat of mountain goats?
[10:18] {dino} rats
[10:18] {cosmo} and dogs
[10:19] {cosmo} dogs for pork
01[10:19] {@Threei}  I'll pack my own lunch...
[10:20] {cosmo} they'll check you for that i think
[10:20] {cosmo} like they do at the ball parks....
06[10:23] * @Threei cancels his Machu Picchu trip
[10:24] {drewj} I still like Mcdonald's burgers.
[10:24] {drewj} rats or no rats
[10:24] {cosmo} there still is time before they build 3i
[10:24] {dino} i like the quarter pounder
[10:24] {drewj} yup
[10:24] {dino} nsam hl l .70, careful pulp
[10:24] {drewj} nuggets are good too
[10:25] {dino} the salads are good too
[10:25] {dino} and breakfast the best
[10:25] {drewj} dino how many shares is a half lot for you?
[10:25] {cosmo} the quaarter pound patty does great inside your catcher's mitt
[10:25] {drewj} lol
[10:25] {cosmo} takes out the sting
[10:25] {dino} drew 500
[10:26] {dino} sm=400 smr=300   no mention = full lot/1000
[10:26] {dino} sage crazy for stock issuance at 52.5-
01[10:27] {@Threei}  1:2  FCX
[10:28] {dino} damn nsam, vwap never hit
01[10:31] {@Threei}  FCX Seeing elevated put activity today7K Aug 16 puts traded at $0.65
01[10:32] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[10:33] {dino} gj
01[10:33] {@Threei}  ty
01[10:33] {@Threei}  steady
[10:35] {drewj} thanks dino
01[10:35] {@Threei}  1:3  FCX  close enough
01[10:35] {@Threei}  out in full
[10:36] {dino} np
[10:38] {dino} nsam to .04
[10:38] {jfjf64} Ty
[10:40] {dino} nsam to .24
[10:41] {dino} out nsam .24 +.52
01[10:43] {@Threei}  not too shabby
[10:44] {dino} ty, 3 for 3, at daily goal already.
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Poland's prime minister spoke out Wednesday against plans by a Russian motorcycle club to ride through Poland on a journey to Berlin to mark the 70th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
01[10:45] {@Threei}  The Night Wolves, a nationalistic group loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, plan to retrace the westward path that Red Army soldiers took across eastern Europe as they fought Nazi troops.
[11:03] {dino} .
01[11:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[11:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[11:12] {drewj} Vad I'd like to understand how you judge that a trade is invalid.
[11:13] {drewj} Do you wait until the price action is only 10 cents wide?
01[11:13] {@Threei}  if a stop level is hit before triggering
[11:13] {drewj} How does that relate
[11:13] {drewj} ?
01[11:13] {@Threei}  I don't understand, sorry
01[11:13] {@Threei}  look at IWM
[11:13] {drewj} Oh...because the price is too far away from the trigger?
01[11:13] {@Threei}  .45 is trigger
01[11:14] {@Threei}  .35 is condition
01[11:14] {@Threei}  if it loses .35 before triggering, it's invalidated
[11:14] {drewj} SO how can it become valid again?
01[11:14] {@Threei}  .35 is support level which, if lost is stopping trade or invalidating it
01[11:15] {@Threei}  if a trade is on already (.45 is broken), .35 becomes stop level
01[11:15] {@Threei}  if a trade never triggers, .35 remains invalidation level
[11:15] {drewj} So your trades all have S/R trigger and some support level as a stop?
01[11:16] {@Threei}  yes
[11:16] {jfjf64} First nice day here
[11:16] {jfjf64} Ant invasion
[11:16] {jfjf64} Can't win
01[11:16] {@Threei}  weather wise, jf?
[11:16] {drewj} Be careful jf...
[11:16] {jfjf64} Yes
[11:17] {drewj} Vad so what is the way you determine to fade a setup?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  I've no idea how to asnwer that :)
[11:17] {drewj} say something mysterious
01[11:18] {@Threei}  I work in mysterious ways
[11:18] {jfjf64} He stands on his head
[11:18] {drewj} oh my
01[11:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated  IWM
01[11:18] {@Threei}  see?
[11:18] {drewj} i have seen the light
01[11:18] {@Threei}  .35 is lost before triggering
[11:18] {drewj} but you do not want to short it?
01[11:18] {@Threei}  conditionof setup validity is not there anymore
01[11:19] {@Threei}  not really, it's too random time of the day now
[11:20] {drewj} so if the follow through were to be on the short side now it might be worth a look to short it?
[11:21] {jfjf64} Twtr s here
01[11:21] {@Threei}  often, yes
01[11:21] {@Threei}  .20 break, jf...
[11:22] {jfjf64} Yes
[11:22] {jfjf64} Tight stop
[11:23] {jfjf64} Invalid
[11:26] {jfjf64} 20 break
[11:26] {jfjf64} Hold 30
[11:27] {jfjf64} Lets get tweetie
01[11:27] {@Threei}  jf sounds like courting a girl
[11:36] {jfjf64} Common already
[11:36] {jfjf64} Die
01[11:42] {@Threei}  nice
01[11:42] {@Threei}  down she goes
[11:44] {jfjf64} Ty
[11:44] {jfjf64} Boy look fcx grind up
[11:49] {jfjf64} Mcd 97
[11:49] {jfjf64} Looks good
[11:49] {jfjf64} ?
[11:51] {dino} scor spike
[11:53] {jfjf64} Vol subs
[11:53] {jfjf64} Wuba
01[11:55] {@Threei}  The Greece situation keeps getting uglier. A German Finance Ministry official told the press that no one expects outstanding issues to be resolved by the April 24th Eurogroup meeting and echoed other commentators in saying that no progress being made in current negotiations.
[11:56] {jfjf64} Long 63.00
[11:56] {jfjf64} Out
[11:57] {jfjf64} Going to lunch
[11:58] {jfjf64} Will shoot mysel later for takin .30 cents
[11:58] {jfjf64} Will be up 3.00 bucks
01[12:13] {@Threei}  German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on April 15 that the United States must play an important role in helping to solve the crisis in Ukraine
01[12:14] {@Threei}  amazing... troubles in their backyard, threatening them the most
01[12:14] {@Threei}  and it's US that need to solve it
01[12:15] {@Threei}  read this and tell me you don't eant to smack this guy over the head:
01[12:15] {@Threei}  "We will not fall back into the history of a 100 years ago that you can change with military force. For this we need the United States," Schaeuble said
01[12:15] {@Threei}  "We know that we need the United States. We know that we have to care as Europeans on this matter, better than most have expected that the Europeans would do, but it is difficult to get it. A difficult job," he said.
[12:20] {dino} once again, asking usa to carry the load
01[12:27] {@Threei}  yes - and no doubt, cursing it for being agressive right after
[12:30] {drewj} They can't do much themselves because they aren't allowed a military to do it.
01[12:31] {@Threei}  Germany yes, but what about the rest of EU
[12:31] {drewj} They bicker to much to stand united against Russia.
01[12:32] {@Threei}  there you go
[12:32] {drewj} Collectively they would have a chance but as separate whiny countries they can't do much.
01[12:33] {@Threei}  and so, which three countries send military personal to Ukraine now to train their army?
01[12:33] {@Threei}  answer is quite striking
01[12:34] {@Threei}  US, UK, Canada
[12:34] {dino}  putin will take all of ukraine before eu acts. and then they will just say, you can have ukraine but no more (which is basically what they said about crimea
[12:34] {drewj} Not sure.  US. UK
01[12:35] {@Threei}  yeah, and next thing you know, he says "ty, and btw, Moldova, Belarus, and a few more are mine too"
[12:35] {drewj} I almost had it
[12:35] {drewj} A new Hitler.
[12:35] {dino} rio drop
01[12:36] {@Threei}  yup... similarities are mind-boggling
[12:36] {dino} sm l .93 rio
[12:39] {dino} wow sage
[12:42] {dino} gs cuts rio to sell, stop to .03
[12:44] {dino} to .13
[12:47] {dino} to .16
[12:48] {dino} to .23
[12:49] {dino} out rio .23, +.30
[12:54] {drewj} Nice dino
[12:57] {dino} ty
[12:58] {drewj} GDX break .70?
01[12:59] {@Threei}  chart is right but too narrow and slow
01[12:59] {@Threei}  just doubt there is enough room for profit
[12:59] {drewj} So no follow through...?
01[13:01] {@Threei}  why, it may follow through just fine, it's just a very narrow mover
01[13:01] {@Threei}  you need something with enough room for movement
01[13:02] {@Threei}  unless you intend a scal for 5-6 cents with large shares
01[13:02] {@Threei}  scalp
01[13:02] {@Threei}  then yes, it's a good one
01[13:05] {@Threei}  remember scalp type 1 from scalping videocourse?
01[13:05] {@Threei}  this is perfect stock for that
01[13:06] {@Threei}  right about now you'd start feeding your shares into buying at .76
01[13:06] {@Threei}  let's say 3K out of 5
[13:07] {drewj} ok
[13:12] {drewj} This is really interesting to me Vad.
[13:12] {drewj} So follow through has nothing to do with the width then right?
[13:13] {drewj} Then that would mean the wide movers have to have more space between trigger and next S/R?
01[13:16] {@Threei}  follow through is a measurement of how well stocks follow the pattern
01[13:16] {@Threei}  width is a room for profit
[13:16] {drewj} So then dino would be on the extreem end of this conversation trading over-reactions with huge price swings?
01[13:16] {@Threei}  pretty much
01[13:17] {@Threei}  and notice this important element:
01[13:17] {@Threei}  while on this narrow mover we talk about large shares, to utilize relatively small move,
01[13:17] {@Threei}  in dino'sa case shares must be lower, to handle increased risk
[13:28] {dino} back in 30-45
[13:33] {drewj} GDX took off
01[13:46] {@Threei}  good chart is good chart
[13:57] {drewj} Vad you said GDX didn't have a lot of room for movement...did you say that because the price range before that was narrow as well?
01[13:57] {@Threei}  yeah, general range is too small
01[13:58] {@Threei}  on daily too
01[13:58] {@Threei}  it just rarely moves large
01[14:07] {@Threei}  anyone wants to cross the stix river to the valley of shadows?
01[14:07] {@Threei}  Chaeron is here
[14:08] {Chaeron} Hi everybody! I didn't want to interrupt the major flow of conversation....
01[14:08] {@Threei}  :)
[14:09] {drewj} not too much flow to interupt!
02[14:10] * Disconnected
Session Close: Wed Apr 15 14:10:08 2015

Session Start: Wed Apr 15 14:10:08 2015
Session Ident: #discussions
02[14:11] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[14:11] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[14:12] {Threei}  who kicked me out?
[14:13] {Chaeron} sorry. Habit
01[14:14] {Threei}  sigh
01[14:14] {Threei}  although... getting kicked out of Chaeron's boat might not be a bad thing
[14:16] {Chaeron} naaa. just get wet. Y'all doing great in this market?
01[14:16] {Threei}  steady
[14:16] {Chaeron} good to hear.
01[14:17] {Threei} Short Setup: CELG  .50 break
01[14:17] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[14:22] {Threei}  valid still
01[14:25] {Threei}  1:1
01[14:27] {Threei}  1:2
[14:30] {drewj} did you call that one because it was at the resistance from Monday?
01[14:33] {Threei}  1:3
01[14:33] {Threei}  I jyst saw setup
02[14:35] * Disconnected
Session Close: Wed Apr 15 14:35:37 2015

Session Start: Wed Apr 15 14:35:37 2015
Session Ident: #discussions
02[14:38] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[14:38] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[14:39] {Threei}  my connection is unstable today
01[14:39] {Threei}  anyway, CELG 1:4
01[14:39] {Threei}  out
[14:42] {jfjf64} Ty
01[14:42] {Threei}  yw
[14:45] {jfjf64} Twtr?
01[14:45] {Threei}  .32 break long
[14:46] {dino} .
01[14:56] {Threei}  Invalidated
[14:58] {dino} dxyn spike
01[15:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[15:06] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[15:08] {drewj} Vad do you ever trade with more than 1000 shares on these plays?
01[15:11] {Threei}  on tight ones, yes
[15:32] {drewj} Thanks guys.  I've got to go.  Have a great day.
01[15:34] {Threei}  take care drew
[15:34] {dino} cya drew
01[15:42] {Threei}  move already VXX
01[15:44] {Threei}  here we go
01[15:45] {Threei}  half out
01[15:46] {Threei}  stop to .94
[15:52] {jfjf64} Common vxx
[15:54] {jfjf64} Me out
[15:54] {jfjf64} Ty
01[15:54] {Threei}  yeah, me too
01[15:54] {Threei}  yw
01[15:54] {Threei}  nice day
01[15:54] {Threei}  have a great evening guys, see you tomorrow!
[15:55] {dino} htwr drop
[15:55] {jfjf64} Mkt drop
01[15:56] {Threei}  VXX spike
[15:57] {jfjf64} ?
01[15:58] {Threei}  just wanted you to look, now that we both are out
[15:58] {jfjf64} Lol
01[15:58] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {jfjf64} Good day
01[15:58] {Threei}  yup
[15:58] {jfjf64} Been on
[15:58] {jfjf64} Have a shot tonight