Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Greek Election and FX Fallout Squeeze Markets
Fri, 30 Jan 2015 16:16 PM EST

There was a sense of wariness in global markets this week as participants moved beyond ECB easing to mull over the Greek government turnover, some upsetting corporate quarterly reports, and the Fed's steady course toward rate hikes. Syriza's victory in Greece was widely expected, and focus is now on how Athens and the Eurozone can work out a new deal that allows both sides to save face. The FOMC decision on Wednesday strongly suggested that the Fed is on track for rate liftoff later this year after upgrading its growth assessment to "solid" from "moderate", though it did acknowledge that "international developments" are being watched closely. Meanwhile, corporate giants like Microsoft, Caterpillar, and ConocoPhillips saw losses as they grappled with the strong dollar and weak oil prices. The US 10-year yield fell to new 2015 lows below 1.70%, levels not seen since 2012. The first look at US fourth quarter GDP was good, not great (+2.6% versus final Q3 +5.0%), although consumption remained strong. US durable goods orders were not pretty, while in China, December industrial production contracted 8%, twice the November decline. The Shanghai Composite lost ground on the week for the first time in nearly three months, while the DJIA fell 2.8%, the S&P500 declined 2.8% and the Nasdaq lost 2.6%.

In Greece, the anti-bailout Syriza swept into power in elections last Sunday with an overwhelming 10-point lead over the ruling New Democracy party. Syriza took 149 seats, just shy of the 151 required for an outright majority, requiring it to recruit the right-wing, anti-bailout Independent Greeks party (with 13 seats) as coalition partner. Syriza's mercurial leader Alexis Tsipras said the election marks the end of bailout agreement for Greece and cancels austerity. The new government immediately began preparing to cancel certain privatization deals and met with EU Commissioner Dijsselbloem to discuss a new deal with Europe. The euro sank on the news, with EUR/USD touching 1.1100, although it rebounded toward the 1.13 handle later in the week.

Central bank calibration continued this week. The Singapore Central Bank (MAS) joined the currency wars with an intermeeting policy easing on Thursday. In the first unscheduled announcement in 13 years, the MAS cut its 2015 headline CPI forecasts while also lowering the slope of SGD policy band, sending the currency to its weakest levels since 2010. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopted a more cautious stance, tightening bias and also introduced the possibility of a rate cut as its next policy move. In Europe, the Danish Central Bank cut its CD rate for the third time in two weeks, to -0.50% from -0.35%, as the Danes struggle to maintain the EUR/DKK peg. Analysts say the DKK trading band could be widened soon if the pressure on the euro continues. Finally, the Russian Central bank took its one-week auction rate down to 15% from 17%, in what analysts called a highly political decision.

On Monday, OPEC Secretary General El-Badri tried to call a bottom in oil and insisted that prices would begin rising soon, with $200/bbl prices possible in three or four years if new oil investment really started falling. El-Badri insisted that Saudi policy under the new king would remain the same. The oil industry seemed to heed El-Badri's words as a number of the major E&P firms announced sharp y/y reductions in 2015 capex in their earnings reports. The closely watched Baker Hughes rig count registered another steep decline. The US rig count dropped 5.5% on the week, and that combined with a report of ISIS launching a fresh attack in Kurdish territory sent crude futures higher into the close on Friday. After grinding lower for most of the week, WTI crude futures rang up an 8% gain into the close on Friday, topping $48/bbl.

Oil majors detailed the impact from the decline in crude over final quarter of 2014 in quarterly reports. Shell, Total, Conoco and Chevron all announced double-digit percentage cuts to their 2015 capex plans versus 2014 (the standouts were Conoco cutting about 20% and Total cutting by 30%). Independent E&P firms Hess and Occidental Petroleum also cut capex levels (Occidental cut by 33%). The majors saw their upstream earnings plummet, while downstream earnings are barely helping them keep up. Shares of CVX, COP and XOM fell 4-5% on the week, while HES was off 8%. Meanwhile refiners Valero and Phillips 66 saw solid gains in profit from lower crude costs, and modest share gains this week.

Solid earnings reports from DR Horton and Pulte Homes helped drive gains for the major US homebuilders. Housing data out this week wasn't stellar: pending home sales dropped more than expected in December, however the month's total was still higher than the year-ago figure. Meanwhile the November S&P/Case Shiller index gained 4.3% y/y, the slowest in two years, indicating that lean inventories and tight lending standards have limited housing activities. Both Pultle and DR Horton said they were looking forward to a strong spring selling season.

Apple set a record for the most profits in a quarter ever reported by a public company with its first quarter results. iPhone shipments hit a new record high, at 74.5 million units as Apple's new large format phones were a hit, especially in China. Revenue absolutely crushed expectations on the strong sales of the high margin iPhone 6 and 6 plus. Investors did not react well to Microsoft's results, as net income contracted due to price cuts among its Windows and Xbox businesses. Facebook saw healthy y/y gains in both EPS and revenue, while mobile users were up 34% y/y.

Alibaba's shares peaked in early November and have been on the wane since, and this week's fourth-quarter report sent shares down close to 10% after revenue missed estimates. Some analysts cut the name, warning about revenue growth, while others doubled down on optimistic buy ratings. Meanwhile Yahoo disclosed its plan to spin off all of its Alibaba holdings to its shareholders, seen as a positive development, but the swoon in BABA shares dragged YHOO down right along with it. Yahoo's flat fourth-quarter search revenue and sinking display revenue did not help. Amazon had a very good holiday quarter, reporting margins back in the black and earnings way ahead of expectations. Shares of AMZN rose more than 10% after its report.

Dollar strength is becoming a big headache for US corporations with significant overseas revenue, including consumer and drug companies. Both Lilly and Pfizer turned in decent fourth-quarter results, and both cited big FX impacts for some less-than-impressive full-year guidance. Colgate-Palmolive and Proctor & Gamble both missed revenue targets and warned FX was becoming a problem. P&G said FX would reduce 2015 sales by 5% and net earnings by 12%, while Colgate said FX cut 9% off revenue in its fourth quarter.

China reported more troubling data this week. December industrial profits declined twice the amount seen in November, -8% versus -4.2% m/m, and 2014 industrial profit growth was just 3.3%. Officials acknowledged the downward pressure on the economy, but also said this is the "new normal." The PBoC injected liquidity for a second week in a row, again citing the anticipated cash squeeze going into the Lunar New Year holiday.

Lower oil prices showed up in Japan's CPI data. December core nationwide CPI and January Tokyo CPI declined to 9- and 10-month lows, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan is approaching the consumption tax hike roll-off in April, which could send annual CPI levels back to negative territory and leave Abenomics even further from its key objective of 2% inflation. Other December datapoints were similarly troubling: household consumption fell y/y for the ninth straight month and industrial output missed consensus, although exports stayed strong, rising 12.9% y/y. None of this stopped the cabinet from maintaining its economic assessment of "gradually recovering" for the fourth consecutive month. USD/JPY bounced around in a range between 117.40 and 118.60.

Jan 30 2015

Another strong day to finish the month, with many nice juicy trades, 1:3 and 1:5s here and there.

Session Time: Fri Jan 30 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {RonS} hello dudes
01[09:10] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ICPT +26% (received breakthrough therapy designation from FDA for Obeticholic Acid for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SYNA +15% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -IMGN +14% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AMZN +13% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -QLGC +9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BIIB +5.6% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MTW +4.5% (earnings)
[09:28] {RonS} $ha laughing no more
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -DECK -16% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ALGN -11% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -JDSU -5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -XRX -3% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -TYC -2.8% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MAT -1.5% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  hmmm... OK, early morning might be a valid excuse ron
[09:30] {dino} good one ron
[09:30] {dptl} gm
01[09:31] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  change to .50
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:44] {dino} pcar sm l .75
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 59.4 V 57.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:48] {dino} pcar stop .46, -.29
[09:50] {RonS} sm l cbi 34.18
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:57] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 98.1 V 98.2E
[10:08] {dino} what am i missing on pcar?
[10:09] {RonS} truck wreck?
01[10:09] {@Threei}  who knows
[10:09] {nemo} that sucked
01[10:09] {@Threei}  these things are never straightforward
[10:09] {JoebiWan} lol
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:12] {RonS} jesus shak
[10:12] {dino} pcar sm l .77
[10:15] {dino} wow shak, i should start a fast food chain, call it nemo's
[10:15] {nemo} probably get sued
[10:16] {dino} seems like every burger joint stock rocks
[10:16] {nemo} sign of the market apocalypse
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .90 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:21] {dino} lol talk burgers vad buys ncdonalds
01[10:23] {@Threei}  stock only
01[10:23] {@Threei}  and even that is invalidated
01[10:30] {@Threei}  oh, and your Burger King bought our Tim Hortons... talk about ugly union, I don't know what is more gross
01[10:30] {@Threei}  breakdown or bounce...
[10:30] {dino} i luv the whopper
01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .25 break
01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  35 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  scalp only most likely
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .75 break
01[10:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:41] {dino} n looking for the 93 area gap
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {dino} spxl sm l .96
01[11:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[11:09] {@Threei}  If holds  35
01[11:10] {@Threei}  should be a runner
01[11:11] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:12] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:12] {@Threei}  trying for 1:5 if SPY is kindly losing 200
[11:13] {dino} spxl was stopped
01[11:13] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:13] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:13] {@Threei}  stop .34 for the last piece
01[11:15] {@Threei}  closed
[11:18] {dino} added uri calls
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  77 break
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:23] {@Threei}  valid
01[11:27] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:30] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[11:30] {dino} another 6" of snow fell here last night
01[11:30] {@Threei}  yikes
[11:31] {dino} that makes roughly 18" for the week
[11:31] {RonS} dino zzzz...quit watching pcar... lol
01[11:31] {@Threei}  meanwhile my problem is a bit different - grass is gettin a tad too tall, time to mow it... but ground is bit soggy for that. Hmmmm
[11:32] {RonS} goats?
01[11:32] {@Threei}  would be great... none are around though
[11:32] {nemo} buy a couple
01[11:32] {@Threei}  well, there are some two-legged ones as always, sure
01[11:33] {@Threei}  but law frowns upon making them eat grass
01[11:33] {@Threei}  they say slavery is canceled for a while
[11:33] {dino} ron, yeah pcar, i froze that one
[11:34] {dino} 3i, just spray round-up, grass problem solved
01[11:34] {@Threei}  lol
[11:35] {RonS} rains too much dino...not good for waterways...
[11:36] {dino} hmm, them how about artificial turf?
[11:36] {RonS} 3i, i xeriscaped my fron yard and installed a large patio...part of reason was i got tired of the rabbits munching grass to dirt...
[11:37] {RonS} plus that is south side so wanted to be able to sit out in sun of fall and spring when back nort side is still cold...
[11:37] {dino} 3i, the biggest cure for the grass problem, move to a condo, let the association worry about it
01[11:37] {@Threei}  my yard is too large ron
[11:38] {RonS} get a cow...  :)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  I installed a big shed turned gym,
01[11:38] {@Threei}  large gazebo, patio
01[11:39] {@Threei}  put in 5 trees aside of 3 that were there before me
01[11:39] {@Threei}  corner with palm tree and rhododendrons
01[11:39] {@Threei}  a few flowerbeds here and there
01[11:39] {@Threei}  and still have about 2/3 of the yard covered with grass :)
[11:40] {RonS} wow, guess low property taxes there then...
01[11:40] {@Threei}  oh and outdoor kitchen with three grills
01[11:40] {@Threei}  charcoal, propane and smoker
[11:41] {RonS} what i call...covering the bases...
[11:43] {RonS} pcar found reverse gear...
[11:45] {RonS} mrvl spike on takout rumor at $19
[12:05] {nemo} VXX
01[12:06] {@Threei}  - Greece Econ Min Stathakis notes that Greece will remain in the euro. - Reiterates Greece wants to negotiate with European governments, not with the Troika.
01[12:06] {@Threei}  smart guys
[12:06] {dptl} good weekend all see ya monday
[12:06] {RonS} cya dp
01[12:08] {@Threei}  take care dp
[12:11] {dino} cya dp
01[12:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[12:18] {@Threei}  If holds  77
01[12:22] {@Threei}  The first look at fourth quarter US GDP was mixed but not terrible. The headline figure was half the gain seen in the final November reading, declining to +2.6% from +5.0%, but nobody expected the economy to grow again at that high a rate
[12:30] {dino} damn, missed that n 93 gap fill that i mentioned earlier, ugh
01[12:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[12:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[12:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:37] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:42] {dino} n drop
01[12:45] {@Threei}  1:3
[12:46] {dino} n smr l .78
[12:46] {dino} wide
[12:47] {dino} added n calls
[12:49] {dino} dish drop
[12:49] {RonS} did it break?
[12:50] {dino} sm l .87
[12:50] {RonS} lost lunch?
01[12:50] {@Threei}  lol
[12:50] {RonS} which dollar lol
[12:50] {dino} out dish 71.25, +1.38
[12:51] {dino} 69 ron
[12:51] {RonS} better call ese then...
[12:51] {dino} ?
[12:51] {nemo} holy shit...what's up with dish
[12:51] {dino} wow dish spike
[12:51] {RonS} need math lesson...
01[12:52] {@Threei}  (US) FCC announces additional details from spectrum auction
[12:52] {dino} lol ron
01[12:52] {@Threei}  There were 31 winning bidders for Auction 97; won 1611 licenses in AWS-3 airwaves auction- AT&T the largest bidder in the auction bidding $18.2B; Verizon bid $10.4B
[12:52] {RonS} 71.25 - 69 = 1.38
01[12:52] {@Threei}  DISH is in there somewhere
[12:52] {RonS} yep
[12:53] {dino} out n .28, +.50\
[12:53] {dino} well those two trades certainly helped my day
[13:51] {dino} .
01[13:51] {@Threei}  shhhhh
[13:53] {JoebiWan} jeez
[13:53] {nemo} FB could drop seriously ere
[13:58] {nemo} VXX @vwap
[14:01] {nemo} face book on the edge
[14:06] {nemo} FB
[14:07] {nemo} could be ignominious
01[14:07] {@Threei}  .60 break?
[14:07] {nemo} shorted .69, have to turn aroudn there
[14:07] {nemo} seemed logical
[14:08] {nemo} ;-)
[14:08] {nemo} stop is .65
01[14:08] {@Threei}  nice
[14:08] {nemo} whoa baby
06[14:08] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large roll of cash
[14:08] {JoebiWan} very nice
[14:08] {JoebiWan} gj
06[14:08] * @Threei slaps JoebiWan around a bit with a large roll of cash
[14:08] {nemo} I love 69
01[14:08] {@Threei}  TMI
[14:09] {nemo} look how FB dropped with the index jumps...this could be really good
[14:09] {nemo} stop is .50
[14:09] {nemo} should be .60
[14:10] {nemo} but...
[14:10] {RonS} lol 3i
01[14:10] {@Threei}  :)
[14:10] {nemo} pit /52
[14:11] {nemo} right...out .52
[14:11] {nemo} oh frig
[14:11] {nemo} oh frig
[14:11] {JoebiWan} lol
[14:12] {nemo} go fondle ur lightsaber
[14:12] {JoebiWan} rofl
[14:13] {nemo} yeah, should have kept original stop
01[14:13] {@Threei}  I know very few people who act in a way that would get you infuriated if it were anyone else, but you can't help liking them
[14:13] {nemo} ?
01[14:13] {@Threei}  is it a perversion?
[14:13] {nemo} ?
[14:13] {nemo} what?
01[14:14] {@Threei}  sit quiet nemo, everyone else understood but you :)
[14:14] {nemo} what exactly is perverse?
[14:14] {nemo} please, tell me
[14:14] {RonS} he loves watching you suffer
01[14:14] {@Threei}  hehe
01[14:14] {@Threei}  sure, here is definition:
[14:14] {nemo} I'm not suffering Ron
01[14:14] {@Threei}  using feather is linky. Using whole chicken is perversion
01[14:14] {@Threei}  kinky
[14:15] {nemo} Ahhh, my uncle used that example
[14:15] {nemo} speaking of perverse
[14:15] {RonS} hope not a demo...
[14:15] {nemo} on netflix, watch the first episode of "Black Mirror"
[14:16] {RonS} hey dino...
[14:16] {nemo} I'm so tempted to spoil it
[14:18] {nemo} VXX
[14:19] {nemo} XOP higher low on daily
[14:20] {RonS} crude 47.70
[14:28] {RonS} 48.20
01[14:35] {@Threei}  I protest this oil rebound
01[14:36] {@Threei}  where can I register my objection?
[14:36] {nemo} makes sense, it's down so much, not the best idea to hold over the weekend
01[14:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: USO  .70 break
01[14:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[14:48] {RonS} revenge eh?
[14:48] {nemo} fucking with oil this low is a fools errand
[14:48] {nemo} the demand profile in the US will turn positive over then next month
[14:48] {nemo} going into Memorial Day
01[14:48] {@Threei}  gosh...
01[14:49] {@Threei}  next month?
01[14:49] {@Threei}  vs 10 min trade?
[14:49] {RonS} hehe
01[14:49] {@Threei}  it moved up quite a lot
01[14:49] {@Threei}  simply short setup on large bounce
[14:49] {nemo} the volatility in the bottoming area will suck donkey dong
[14:49] {RonS} plus doesn't the oli pit close and prices get goofy right now...
01[14:50] {@Threei}  .80 was even better entry but I didn't watch it back then
[14:50] {nemo} you must identify with that Ron
[14:50] {nemo} sso long over 122.30
[14:50] {nemo} holds vwap
[14:50] {nemo} dead soldier
[14:52] {nemo} 122.10
[14:52] {nemo} holds .00
[14:52] {nemo} my IQ
[14:54] {nemo} long recross sso .20
[14:54] {nemo} holds .10
[14:55] {nemo} whoa
[14:55] {nemo} o.k.
[14:55] {nemo} circling the drain here
[14:55] {nemo} nest support spy .55 level
01[15:06] {@Threei}  VXX goes for high
[15:06] {nemo} yeah, and crude not dropping
[15:06] {nemo} long .78
[15:07] {nemo} stop under .73
[15:07] {RonS} lol...Air came out of that rally faster than Tom Brady's balls
01[15:07] {@Threei}  lol
[15:07] {JoebiWan} best one yet
[15:07] {nemo} poor Peyton
01[15:08] {@Threei}  no go
[15:08] {nemo} I'm partialing .86
[15:08] {nemo} stop under .80 not screwing with this
01[15:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:18] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:18] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:19] {@Threei}  1:3
[15:19] {JoebiWan} beauty
01[15:19] {@Threei}  nailed it! (in my best Hank Moody voice)
[15:19] {dino} gj
01[15:19] {@Threei}  ty
01[15:19] {@Threei}  1:4
01[15:20] {@Threei}  out
01[15:20] {@Threei}  solid day
01[15:20] {@Threei}  1:5
[15:20] {dino} lod
01[15:20] {@Threei}  1:6
01[15:21] {@Threei}  bounce time
[15:29] {nemo} frickin uso, nothin...just dribbling along
[15:29] {nemo} looks like it's gonna com in a bit
[15:30] {JoebiWan} gotta run, ty all cya
[15:30] {nemo} going for a Bantha ride?
[15:30] {nemo} wow, it worked
01[15:33] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:45] {@Threei}  can't read last direction clearly
[15:45] {RonS} good weekend to all
01[15:45] {@Threei}  let's not spoil good day by guessing
01[15:45] {@Threei}  have a great weekend, see you monday

Jan 29 2015

DKTK (Don't Kid The Kidder) setup, especially useful in jerky markets that try to rinse every entry. Let the trigger go, wait for a rinse, enter after the stops get hit.

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)



Decent day with a few more strong trades throughout the day, including JPM short for 1:3 and IWM long for 1:4

Session Time: Thu Jan 29 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:08] {@Threei}  this is for you snowed-in folks:
01[09:08] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152282089521489
[09:18] {Raven} lol
[09:20] {RonS} gm
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CRMD +30% (FDA grants QIDP designation to Neutrolin)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SILC +25% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MLNX +11% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HAR +11% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -KATE +9% (raised FY14 adj EBITDA $145-150M vs prior $130-140M & joint venture announcement)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTXS +6.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -COH +6.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FLEX +6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -PSX +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -LVS +3.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MCD +3% (Board elects new CEO upon retirement of Don Thompson)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CLB -13% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -BABA -9% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YHOO -7% (BABA earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -QCOM -6.8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RCL -5.8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FTNT -5.7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -STLD -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CCL -2.5% (RCL earnings)
[09:26] {nemo} yeah..don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out
01[09:26] {@Threei}  who?
01[09:27] {@Threei}  nemo is drinking this early?
[09:27] {dino} rcl sinking (ron try)
[09:30] {nemo} mmmhhh...I thought it was late
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL.10  break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  44
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CC  44 break
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  44 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  closed
01[09:40] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Tsipras: Negotiating with European partners to find a solution that is mutually beneficial, but it will take time; Govt does have some radical reform plans
01[09:40] {@Threei}  scared even imagine what they'd call "radical"
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .40 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:43] {@Threei}  stop .33
[09:43] {nemo} spy looks like 199 test today
01[09:45] {@Threei}  come on DAL, move
[09:45] {nemo} index weight
01[09:45] {@Threei}  didn't make new low with SPY
01[09:45] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:45] {@Threei}  out
[09:46] {nemo} short baba .20
[09:46] {nemo} Voh shit
[09:46] {nemo} remind me not to do that again
[09:46] {nemo} SOB
[09:46] {nemo} SOB
[09:47] {nemo} SOB
01[09:50] {@Threei}  watching FB for pullback entey
[09:50] {dino} cybr gap filled nov, adding calls
[09:50] {RonS} beav biting it
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:51] {@Threei}  yuck
01[09:51] {@Threei}  what's with internet names?
01[09:51] {@Threei}  YHOO, BABA, FB
[09:53] {RonS} baba sales miss...yhoo tied to baba...fb spending ramp
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .20 break
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {dino} fb sm l .25
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -3.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 8.5% V 10.8%E
[10:01] {dptl} gm
01[10:01] {@Threei}  dp
01[10:01] {@Threei}  closed CCL on trail
01[10:02] {@Threei}  *(DK) DANISH CENTRAL (NATIONALBANKEN) BANK CUTS DEPOSIT RATE TO -0.50% FROM -0.35%
01[10:02] {@Threei}  so, you pay to keep money in bank?
01[10:03] {@Threei}  and starting today you pay more?
[10:04] {dino} lol, wonder if they also have accont fees
[10:04] {cosmo} Insurance fees...
01[10:05] {@Threei}  unattended account fee
01[10:05] {@Threei}  transaction fee
01[10:05] {@Threei}  account statement fee
01[10:06] {@Threei}  let's open a bank
01[10:06] {@Threei}  nemo will be our desginated fee collector
[10:06] {cosmo} good man
01[10:07] {@Threei}  in a few months we will start looking fore him to ask why he never came to collect his salary
01[10:07] {@Threei}  to which he will say, "I get salary too??"
01[10:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .30 break
01[10:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:08] {dino} mmyt sm l .25
01[10:08] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:11] {@Threei}  change to .55
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:15] {@Threei}  no go
[10:17] {nemo} jerky frickin' action
[10:17] {dino} out fb .32, +1.07
[10:17] {JoebiWan} gj
[10:18] {dino} ty
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .45 break
[10:20] {nemo} twtr hit it's head on vwap twice
01[10:20] {@Threei}  change to .40
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:21] {@Threei}  which is why I stayed away from .60 break and waited for rinse
01[10:22] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {nemo} CVX
01[10:26] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:31] {@Threei}  out
[10:31] {JoebiWan} nice one
01[10:31] {@Threei}  DKTK works
01[10:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  55 break
01[10:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:39] {dino} alb drop
[10:39] {RonS} alb conference call going on right now
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:46] {dino} alb vsm .50 trig
[10:47] {JoebiWan} alb
[10:47] {JoebiWan} whoops sry
[10:47] {dino} in alb .55 stop lod brk
[10:48] {RonS} which dollar?
[10:48] {dino} 48
01[10:48] {@Threei}  lol
[10:49] {dino} pulp
[10:49] {dino} 48-49
[10:52] {dino} stop alb flat
[10:54] {dino} damn, tricked me
06[10:56] * dino slaps dino around a bit with a large trout
01[10:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:59] {@Threei}  to .44
01[10:59] {@Threei}  meh
01[11:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[11:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:09] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:13] {dino} spxl smr l ave .51
[11:21] {cosmo} silver turns into lead today
[11:22] {cosmo} alchemy, ey
01[11:23] {@Threei}  wrong direction?
01[11:23] {@Threei}  supposed to turn lead into gold
[11:23] {cosmo} sign of the times
01[11:23] {@Threei}  makes sense
[11:24] {cosmo} gold is next
[11:35] {dino} rdwr sm l .55
[11:44] {dino} out spxl .04, +.53
01[11:52] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:54] {dino} ty
[11:56] {nemo} VXX
[12:20] {nemo} UPS
01[12:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  35 break
01[12:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[12:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:27] {@Threei}  lol, get this... some cities are just created to be totally f*cked up. First, Winnipeg gets a city-wide water boiling advisory as control finds e-coli in tap water. Two days later, thousand households are left with no power as a pole gets hit, so now they can't even boil that water
01[12:27] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:29] {dino} gj
01[12:29] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:29] {@Threei}  closed on a trail
[12:31] {RonS} har laughing to bank...
[12:34] {RonS} Oil sinks below $44 a barrel for first time since 2009
01[12:34] {@Threei}  nothing but thunderous applause from me
01[12:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .10 break
01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:46] {RonS} lol...Senior ECB official: Greek government’s signals are "very mixed"
01[12:48] {@Threei}  you think, lol
01[12:49] {@Threei}  mix of we want money, we don't want to return it, we want jobs, we don't want to work...
01[12:50] {@Threei}  now as new Greek govt starts protesting sanctions against Russia, they also find financial connections to Kremlin
[12:53] {RonS} rdc drilled
[12:56] {dino} took all morning, but out mmyt .11, +86
[12:56] {dino} .86
01[12:57] {@Threei}  even if that took all afternoon too, wouldn't be shabby
[12:57] {dino} indeed
[12:57] {dino} i think i will take a little break
[12:59] {RonS} freakin liberals:  Dartmouth has banned hard liquor in effort to raise campus safety
01[13:02] {@Threei}  [TRP] TRP US Senate now has enough votes to move Keystone XL pipeline legislation forward; final vote to take place later today
01[13:02] {@Threei}  meaning, vote-proof majority?
01[13:06] {@Threei}  ummm... veto-proof
01[13:06] {@Threei}  {--- dixleksik
[13:06] {RonS} doubt will know 'till over...arm twisting time
[13:06] {JoebiWan} lol
[13:07] {RonS} gpro whack
[13:17] {nemo} UAL
[13:17] {nemo} UPS
01[13:29] {@Threei}  new Terminator is coming??
01[13:29] {@Threei}  never heard they were filming it
[13:31] {dptl} gn all ...see ya tomorrow
[13:31] {RonS} probably bruce jenner after sex change...enough to scare the shit out of anybody...
01[13:31] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[13:31] {@Threei}  lol
[13:34] {RonS} headline after my own heart:  Greek Banks at Mercy of the Fates
01[13:35] {@Threei}  hehe
01[13:36] {@Threei}  ronism lives and conquers
[13:38] {RonS} tradition for newspapers since the Hearst yellow journalism days...headlines as hooks...make the reader think what the hell is that?
[13:59] {cosmo} I like it when the article's text has nothing to do with the headline.
[13:59] {dino} miss much?
[13:59] {cosmo} missing time is all
[14:00] {dino} ll
[14:00] {dino} lol, missing typing skills
[14:01] {cosmo} tweeting does that
[14:02] {cosmo} missing literacy actually
01[14:05] {@Threei}  of all social networks known to humanity, twitter has my largest dose of despise
[14:06] {cosmo} 11
[14:11] {RonS} Big Oil is hurting from low oil prices. @Shell just killed $15 billion in investment projects http://bloom.bg/1DcDaHe
01[14:13] {@Threei}  why do I not feel like crying...
[14:21] {nemo} because your an insensitive bastard
[14:23] {cosmo} because it now helps keep the stock price up?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  [14:21] {nemo} because your an insensitive bastard
01[14:24] {@Threei}  my wife just asked to tell you, you are the man she appreciates as far as correct evaluation of my values goes
[14:26] {nemo} that's why you and I get along so well
01[14:26] {@Threei}  that, and one more...
01[14:26] {@Threei}  anyone wants to see a grown man sobbing uncontrollably?
01[14:27] {@Threei}  twell nemo that he must chose between fried meat, alcohol and sex
[14:27] {nemo} and guns
[14:27] {nemo} I'm fondling my Sig as we speak
[14:27] {RonS} ...and rock & roll?
[14:27] {nemo} not so much...worked in Rock&Roll..surprised my liver survived
[14:35] {nemo} VXX
[14:36] {nemo} buying .36
[14:36] {nemo} stop under .25
[14:37] {nemo} first target .54
[14:37] {nemo} stop now .34
[14:38] {nemo} out
01[14:39] {@Threei}  can't tell if it;'s a shakeout or end
[14:39] {nemo} shakeout, given the time
[14:40] {nemo} but indexes holding high and tight
[14:41] {nemo} should have gone with the DKTK setup
01[14:41] {@Threei}  from the shore walk couple days ago: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/787380191341498/?type=1&theater
[14:42] {nemo} and there's the first target....not
[14:56] {dino} these afternoons are dead
01[14:57] {@Threei}  been a case for a good while
01[14:57] {@Threei}  last hour livens things up again
[14:57] {dino} i know, it sucks, because its too snowy and cold up here for afternoon golfing
01[14:59] {@Threei}  well... ese is waiting for you on our golf fields :)
[14:59] {nemo} links vad, links
01[14:59] {@Threei}  sigh... sorry
06[15:00] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[15:00] {@Threei}  thank god not the put
06[15:01] * nemo slaps Threei around a bit with a large Carp
[15:01] {nemo} aapl might be getting ready to come in a bit
01[15:01] {@Threei}  for a while I thought "tee" was just a mistyped "tea"
[15:02] {dino} speaking of golf, buddy of mine just booked our golf group for round on february 9th at www.thetiltedcaddie.com should be interesting
[15:03] {nemo} I've decided aapl is an index
[15:03] {dino} its a fruit
[15:04] {nemo} it's a record label
[15:06] {nemo} what a battle in aapl
01[15:08] {@Threei}  it's a partially eaten fruit
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[15:15] {nemo} aapl coming in indexes will come in
01[15:18] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:20] {@Threei}  jeez
01[15:20] {@Threei}  [FB] Launches new feature known as "Place Tips" to recommend spots in a location specific way - tech blogs (update) - Facebook will send notifications when the individual is near a store, restaurant, or other location that it thinks you may like
01[15:20] {@Threei}  just how creepy is this
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:22] {cosmo} I'm just glad I was home schooled in science fiction
01[15:22] {@Threei}  got almost perfect reversal, the only thing I was struggling with and unfortunately decided not to do: change entry to .65
01[15:24] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:25] {@Threei}  1:4
01[15:25] {@Threei}  out
[15:29] {nemo} VXX
01[15:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .95 break
01[15:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:48] {JoebiWan} ty all, im outta here
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thanl you all, fine day
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a great evening
01[15:49] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Jan 28 2015

Session Time: Wed Jan 28 00:00:00 2015
[08:48] {nemo} I think I'll drink until 11:00 then nap and sober up for the 2:15 Fed announcement
01[08:52] {@Threei}  соундс лике а план
[08:52] {dino} gm
01[08:52] {@Threei}  sounds like a plan
01[08:52] {@Threei}  dino :)
[08:53] {nemo} wow, now he thinks he can type in Russian
[08:53] {nemo} is it easier with those fins?
01[08:53] {@Threei}  no, about the same
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Greece PM Tsipras reiterated his view to negotiate debt relief and easing of austerity terms. Priority was to seek compromise with EU peers and to avoid mutually destructive clash
01[09:05] {@Threei}  why avoid it... go right ahead
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Russia Dep Fin Min Moiseev: Might stop holding the FX Deposit auctions
01[09:06] {@Threei}  see? that's how it's done. If we don't like the rate, we cancel the market
[09:14] {RonS} hi everyone
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:23] {nemo} volume somewhat on the light side this morning
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ABMD +38% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ADXS +12% (update on GOF Phase 2 study of Advaxis's Lm-LLO immunotherapy ADXS-HPV)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -FSL +12% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAPL +9% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -X +8.8% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -COMM +7.4% (acquiring telecom, enterprise & wireless business from TEL for $3B)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JRJC +7% (no news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JNPR +6% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TUP +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MNKD +5.2% (CEO transitioning to Executive Chairman, COO Edstrom appointed to CEO position)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -WDC +5.1% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -YHOO +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NBG -25% (continued comments from incoming Greek PM on restructuring of debt relief and austerity programs)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ACAT -17% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PBR -9% (canceled plans to build 2 low sulfur diesel refineries in Northern Brazil)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SYRG -5% (launched & priced 16.2M shares at $10.75/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCAU -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ENR -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -RDWR -3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .05 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:39] {cosmo} JNPR needs to hold 23 ....as a mkt indicator
[09:39] {cosmo} imho
01[09:39] {@Threei}  still valid JPM
01[09:40] {@Threei}  change to 56 break
[09:41] {RonS} jnpr ginned up eh?
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
[09:45] {dino} rdwr sm l .70
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .85 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:53] {@Threei}  stop to .79
01[09:54] {@Threei}  meh
[09:56] {nemo} YHOO
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:59] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:14] {@Threei}  SPY is locked in narrow range
01[10:14] {@Threei}  BBs are toghtening
01[10:14] {@Threei}  i
[10:14] {nemo} 203.80 it's weekly pivot   FED day
[10:15] {dptl} gm
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  81 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:19] {@Threei}  no go
[10:20] {RonS} sm l PH 117.16 s/l be
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:29] {nemo} frickin' fed day
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei}  sigh
[10:33] {nemo} wow vxx jerk around
01[10:33] {@Threei}  total somg
01[10:33] {@Threei}  changing to DKTK
[10:33] {nemo} turn out my drinking idea was a good one
[10:39] {nemo} vxx and spy get to pivot at same time
01[10:47] {@Threei}  to get the direction right and get rinsed like this, hate it
01[10:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[11:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:25] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=796174470431102
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:3  FB  close enough
01[11:26] {@Threei}  out
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:32] {@Threei}  some things work nicely
[11:41] {RonS} Oil Inventories Hit Highest Level In 80 Years, Prices Fall Further http://stks.co/a1ZOC
01[11:41] {@Threei}  kind of self-sustaining pattern, isn't it
01[11:42] {@Threei}  low price, easier to get larger inventory
01[11:42] {@Threei}  larger inventory pushes price down even more
01[11:42] {@Threei}  and that'll continue until production starts really dropping off
01[11:50] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .70 break
01[11:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:52] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:52] {cosmo} what controls oil production?
[11:53] {cosmo} I'd say its the Earth itself.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  I mean oil producers that have costs and must balance them against prices
01[11:55] {@Threei}  as price drops, those who have higher cost of production will start falling off
01[11:55] {@Threei}  can lower cost producers satisfy the demand while prices stay low?
01[11:55] {@Threei}  that will determine the price ceiling
[11:56] {cosmo} good riddance to fracking
01[11:56] {@Threei}  rather: thank you fracking for establishing that ceiling
01[11:57] {@Threei}  prices will stay under that limit which makes fracking viable again
01[11:57] {@Threei}  how is it not great?
[11:57] {RonS} ya, after 40 years of fracking it is dead...right...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  well, the part of it that is done at higher costs, will die off
01[11:58] {@Threei}  costs vary greatly between regions
[11:58] {cosmo} 90% of the stuff released by the process is "fugitive"; it misses the pipe and goes into the air and groundwater, etc.
[11:59] {cosmo} and is also totally unaccounted for as a greenhouse gas
[11:59] {cosmo} evil tech
01[12:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:06] {dino} rdwr sm l .24
[12:09] {dino} that evil tech is saving people lots of $$
[12:12] {dino} mbly drop
01[12:13] {@Threei}  but that's evil in and of itself... according to do-gooders, fuel must be exp[ensive to discourage its use :)
01[12:13] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:14] {dino} ok, then how about that evil tech out usa back on top
01[12:15] {@Threei}  that's evil too... we need to be cut down to size
[12:15] {dino} as i tell my kids, just because somebody says it's true does not make it true
[12:16] {nemo} yeah, you used to tell them Santa was real
01[12:16] {@Threei}  unless it's left who says that... then it's true just because they said it
01[12:16] {@Threei}  because they are moral
[12:17] {dino} if keeping people down is considered moral
01[12:17] {@Threei}  1:3
[12:17] {cosmo} evil = unconscionably messy = polluting
01[12:18] {@Threei}  day becomes brighter
[12:18] {cosmo} making earthquakes too
01[12:18] {@Threei}  1:4
01[12:18] {@Threei}  out
[12:19] {JoebiWan} gj
[12:19] {dino} gj
01[12:19] {@Threei}  ty
[12:19] {cosmo} and doing this knowingly and playing dumb about it
[12:19] {cosmo} i digress...
01[12:25] {@Threei}  wow FB
[12:26] {JoebiWan} xiv .10 break?
01[12:27] {@Threei}  most likely
01[13:07] {@Threei}  Greek banks are getting hammered again today, with the top four banks down 25% a piece, following two days of massive losses. The Athens stock exchange is down nearly 7%.
01[13:07] {@Threei}  The new coalition government and its European opponents have begun preliminary maneuvers ahead of what will surely be vicious negotiations to restructure the Greek bailout deal. Fears of a run on Greek banks are in the air.
[13:07] {nemo} and the dax is up again almost 1%
01[13:12] {@Threei}  I am sure bets are made that thnis or that way but EU will placate Greece
[13:23] {dptl} fed at 2pm?
[13:24] {dino} eu will extend the loans greatly
01[13:31] {@Threei}  yes dp
[13:31] {dptl} ty
01[13:35] {@Threei}  this is huge problem for EU
01[13:35] {@Threei}  start loosening loan conditions, there arer more countries that will immediately demand the same
01[13:36] {@Threei}  can you say "contagion"
[13:49] {RonS} k, early lunch so ready for the fed jerk around...
[13:56] {nemo} aapl looks long
[13:57] {RonS} wish u said that yesterday...
01[13:58] {@Threei}  lol
[13:58] {nemo} you would have had to hold into the post market
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25%: REMAINS PATIENT - Vote: (prior 7-3)
01[14:00] {@Threei}  WILL CONDUCT TERM RRP TEST IN COMING MONTHS
01[14:01] {@Threei}  (GR) EU's Moscovici: A solution will be found for Greece, EU will keep aiding Greece
[14:02] {RonS} lol...Good news: No more Fed meetings till March
[14:03] {dino} crs drop
[14:04] {dino} sm l .50
[14:06] {nemo} FB
[14:06] {nemo} looks short if it stays under .30ish
[14:07] {nemo} yo rinny
[14:08] {nemo} might find it's way back to vwap
[14:08] {nemo} stop to .25ish
[14:09] {nemo} to .10
[14:09] {dino} rdwr to .19
[14:09] {nemo} out .82
[14:10] {nemo} should be one more "cha" in the indexes
[14:11] {nemo} guess I wussed on that one, shit look at aapl
[14:12] {dino} crs stop -.30
[14:12] {dino} out rdwr .23, +.99
[14:12] {JoebiWan} gj
[14:12] {dino} ty
[14:13] {nemo} http://goo.gl/Uiab70
[14:14] {RonS} deep story...
[14:14] {nemo} hahaha
[14:24] {dino} crs sm l .20
01[14:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
01[14:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:27] {@Threei}  nope
[14:34] {dino} crs stop again
01[14:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  49 break
01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[14:36] {dino} snx drop
01[14:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[14:42] {@Threei}  late
[14:43] {dino} snx sm l .01 ave
01[14:43] {@Threei}  if pullsa bck before hitting 1:1, maybe
01[14:43] {@Threei}  let it drop under .65
01[14:43] {@Threei}  and see if it recrosses
01[14:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[14:45] {nemo} VMW looks short
[14:45] {nemo} here or below .90 stop above .05
01[14:46] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:48] {dino} out snx .40, +.39
[14:48] {nemo} stop to .90
[14:50] {nemo} out .92
[14:50] {nemo} frig
01[14:52] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:53] {dino} dia smr l .70
01[14:53] {@Threei}  FB is our savior today
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:3
[14:54] {dino} rdwr good to me, 2/2 on it, 1.39 in all
01[14:54] {@Threei}  nice
[14:54] {nemo} I took it south (not far enough) any you took it north
01[14:54] {@Threei}  how do you manage to make it sound dirty?
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:55] {dino} lol
01[14:55] {@Threei}  out
[14:55] {nemo} ahhh...your inference is not my implication
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I dunno... it just has to be your fault
[14:55] {RonS} plus it still sounded dirty...
[14:56] {nemo} well, it's not like we did it at the same time
[14:56] {nemo} o.k.
[14:56] {nemo} that better
[14:56] {dino} dia stopped flat, whipping around
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:6
01[14:57] {@Threei}  grrr
01[15:00] {@Threei}  finally major news of the day comes
01[15:00] {@Threei}  *(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED
[15:00] {RonS} thank goodness...at least 1 qe in the chamber
01[15:01] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  50
01[15:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:07] {@Threei}  want 1:5
01[15:10] {@Threei}  ok... out
01[15:11] {@Threei}  ugh... rinsed last piece
01[15:11] {@Threei}  this kind of statements amaze:
01[15:11] {@Threei}  IMF's Vinals: Fed should not rush to raise interest rates as inflation is not a concern in the US
01[15:12] {@Threei}  what vusiness do you have to tell US what to do??
01[15:13] {@Threei}  1:5
01[15:17] {@Threei}  sheesh... unstoppable
[15:18] {dptl} gn all see ya tomorrow
01[15:20] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:34] {@Threei}  one last bounce should be close somwhere
[15:36] {dino} 17241 has been strong bounce area for last 30 days
[15:36] {dino} below that 17087
01[15:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[15:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:37] {dino} pattern of slightly lower highs building, but so far not lower lows
01[15:38] {@Threei}  sigh
01[15:39] {@Threei}  not liking today, despite a few very nice trades
01[15:43] {@Threei}  after VXX entry should have just fainted, and come out of it just about now
[15:43] {nemo} or drank yourself unconscious
01[15:44] {@Threei}  $2.20 ago
[15:44] {nemo} I've always wondered why you just don't leave a little on
01[15:45] {@Threei}  because it hit trailing stop?
01[15:45] {@Threei}  how often di they go like this, in almost straight line, vs reverse?
[15:45] {dino} cybr gap around 33.80
[15:45] {nemo} it's Greece
[15:46] {dino} sure its not greek
[15:47] {nemo} it's a big part...they are now a black hole in the EU model
[15:47] {dino} this greece thing doesn't really happen until march
[15:47] {nemo} when actually is dawn and sunset dino?
[15:48] {nemo} uncertainty is the bane of markets
[15:48] {dino} ??? sure, but the decision is in march from what i can find
[15:48] {nemo} is this a canary in the coal mine or just a drunk to kick out the door
[15:48] {nemo} no, decision was the elections
[15:49] {nemo} you have the far left and right in charge...you think there will be middle of the road compromise?
[15:49] {dino} no, he's already backpeddeling. prior to election he said default, now aking for lengthening of payoff timetable
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thanks guys, finishing for the day
[15:49] {dino} take care 3i
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {nemo} That's what we read...and if that happens then comes Spain, Portugal, Italy...etc
[15:50] {nemo} black hole of uncertainty in Europe has raised it's ugly head...volatility baby....it's back!
[15:50] {dino} sure nemo, but gut says lengthening does not hurt them that much, think brady bonds
[15:50] {dino} default and exit is the fear
[15:51] {nemo} we're headed into the fog of this Keynesian experiment, there be dragons ahead
[15:51] {nemo} it'
[15:51] {nemo} you have currency wars now
[15:51] {dino} ironically, if i were the greels, default/exit are what i woud recommend, within a year things would get better
[15:52] {dino} greeks
[15:52] {dino} would, sheesh
[15:52] {nemo} probably, then come the Italians, Spaniards, and Portugese
[15:52] {nemo} the Euro structure is an abortion
[15:52] {dino} sure, one defaults and euro is dead
[15:52] {nemo} right, so then a vacuum ensues...
[15:53] {nemo} Financial dramamine required
[15:53] {dino} big question is "if a default occurs", still not sure it happens. debt extensions yes.
[15:53] {nemo} What do you do with trillons in Euro denominated bonds?
[15:53] {nemo} that's right, uncertainty
[15:53] {nemo} exactly my point
[15:54] {dino} what do you do? you get rid of them now
[15:54] {nemo} I have no idea all we know is uncertainty creates volatility
[15:54] {nemo} you go to what you know
[15:55] {nemo} what currencies can you be sure of?
[15:55] {dino} hearing rumors canadian housing market was propped up by oil, could be trouble up there
[15:55] {nemo} absolutely
[15:56] {dino} currencies, have to go the usd. that and softening of others currencies should keep rate increase at bay
01[15:56] {@Threei}  not that simple
01[15:56] {@Threei}  it's true for Alberta
[15:56] {nemo} two good things about the USD...it's reserve, and it's diversified as to underpinning value
01[15:56] {@Threei}  other provinces are more likely to benefit from oil drop
[15:56] {nemo} CAD is resource based
[15:57] {dino} yes, not just oil pain, copper, iron, etc
01[15:57] {@Threei}  re market is surely heated here but how much of that is OVERheated is very diffficult to say
01[15:57] {@Threei}  there was never subprime lending here
[15:57] {nemo} well, you'll know next GDP report with $45 oil
01[15:58] {@Threei}  sure but there is no direct connection to RE
[15:58] {dino} well, thats all for me, gn guys
01[15:58] {@Threei}  plenty of industries were suppressed by high oil and high CDN
01[15:58] {@Threei}  they are raising exports now
01[15:58] {@Threei}  and hiring

Jan 27 2015

Uneven day, back and forth trading with a few good trades more or less compensating lack of reliable read. Ending slightly negative nonetheless.

Session Time: Tue Jan 27 00:00:00 2015
[08:48] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:48] {@Threei}  jw :)
01[08:55] {@Threei}  is east coast still there?
[08:56] {JoebiWan} gosh, i hope so
01[09:07] {@Threei}  looks like :)
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {RonS} hello...NYSE Says Rule 48 Invoked For Market Open
01[09:09] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:10] {RonS} ...but is it from outer space?
[09:10] {RonS} Rule 48, a rarely-used rule that allows the NYSE to suspend the requirement to disseminate price indications at the open.
[09:10] {nemo} Well at least they didn't give order 66
01[09:10] {@Threei}  lol
[09:11] {nemo} wtf...the storm largely missed NYC
[09:12] {RonS} from snowmageddon to snowmagone...
[09:12] {nemo} where all the children are above average
[09:13] {nemo} can you tell I was ingesting anti-freeze on a continuous basis last night
[09:14] {RonS} dino, PH beat and raised
[09:14] {RonS} cat skinned
01[09:21] {@Threei}  serious beating futures take
[09:22] {nemo} oh jeez...he's slipping back into his yoda vernacular
[09:22] {RonS} lol
[09:22] {RonS} perfect
01[09:23] {@Threei}  excuse me? "slipping back he is!"
[09:23] {nemo} hope they do invoke rule 66
[09:23] {JoebiWan} lol
[09:23] {RonS} will bite...what is it?
[09:23] {nemo} the rule to wipe out the Jedi
[09:24] {RonS} ah
[09:27] {dino} ok
[09:28] {cosmo} that's rule 86 i thought
[09:29] {nemo} 66  add one more six...duh
[09:29] {nemo} 666
[09:29] {nemo} number of....?
[09:29] {nemo} cosmo has been ingesting his namesake methinks
[09:30] {cosmo} a namesake?
01[09:31] {@Threei}  (GR) Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: There is no support for writing off Greece debt
[09:31] {nemo} look up the "cosmopolitan"
01[09:31] {@Threei}  wow... not everyone made it in the room this morning, storm or not :)
[09:31] {cosmo} ah
[09:31] {nemo} probably more the "or not"
01[09:31] {@Threei}  (UR) Russsia Govt officials: Situation in Ukraine has deteriorated \
[09:32] {dino} fxe
01[09:32] {@Threei}  duh
[09:32] {nemo} Shit, I'm in the frickin' storm's bullseye and I'm here...so far
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  118
[09:32] {cosmo} too stormy out...stay home and trade....
01[09:32] {@Threei}  no go
[09:33] {dino} why the big drop?
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Europe... MSFT...
01[09:34] {@Threei}  snow...
[09:35] {nemo} 202.63 S3 on spy
[09:35] {nemo} likely headed at least ther
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  90 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:38] {nemo} wow msft on the uptick rule
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  IWM rinse
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:49] {@Threei}  bounces are not too convincing
01[09:50] {@Threei}  sorry... "too convincing bounces are not"
01[09:50] {@Threei}  MCD still looks good though
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:52] {@Threei}  closed last 1/4 on a trail
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  32
01[09:58] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 6 V 5E
01[09:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  56 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 102.9 V 95.5E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC NEW HOME SALES: 481K V 450KE
[10:01] {dino} added dfs calls
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:1  JPM
01[10:03] {@Threei}  looking for VXX entry again
01[10:04] {@Threei}  feels like SPY drop is coming
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  32 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:07] {dino} vdsi sm l .35
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:11] {nemo} this is vwap for fb could be two way
01[10:12] {@Threei}  I wouldn't short it here
01[10:12] {@Threei}  change to .40 break long
01[10:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:15] {nemo} 1 bar early
[10:18] {nemo} AAPL reports after the close
[10:18] {dptl} gm
01[10:20] {@Threei}  dp dug out of east coast snow?
[10:21] {dptl} :) yeah
[10:21] {dino} ph sm l .05
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[10:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[10:24] {@Threei}  let's crash, SPY
01[10:25] {@Threei}  what are you, stupid? don't understand which way is crash?
01[10:25] {@Threei}  no go
[10:26] {dino} out ph, .50, +.45 ty ron
[10:26] {RonS} np
[10:29] {nemo} couldn't push through the low, could test the other side of the range if we can get above 203
01[10:30] {@Threei}  somg
01[10:30] {@Threei}  double somg
01[10:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .50 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:37] {@Threei}  stop to .56
[10:37] {nemo} aapl bounce
[10:38] {nemo} if aapl drops the low indexes should follow
[10:38] {nemo} however this was S4 on appl...that's a stretch
01[10:38] {@Threei}  if that bid at .42 gives in, DAL is so dead
[10:39] {nemo} early support at .43, vwap just below .40
[10:39] {nemo} oil flat
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:41] {@Threei}  those huge bids or offers act like magnets
01[10:44] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:44] {@Threei}  somewhat makes up for that disgusting VXX rinse
[10:45] {JoebiWan} nice ty
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:46] {@Threei}  a few wins in the morning, but this one is the nicest so far
[11:08] {RonS} ph trying for green...thinking if holds 122 will run to 124-5
[11:17] {dino} damn, should've held
[11:18] {RonS} How many companies are going to beat and raise this quarter?  lol...this could be the only one...
01[11:18] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .75 break
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .83
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .10 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[11:42] {nemo} sheesh...XOP was the play
[11:44] {nemo} http://goo.gl/XziXEu
01[11:58] {@Threei}  meh
01[12:06] {@Threei}  The West sees a winter heat wave, while the East braces a blizzard
01[12:06] {@Threei}  looks like one coast has half-global warming, another - cooling
01[12:08] {@Threei} Short Setup: MACD  .60 break
01[12:08] {@Threei}  MCD
01[12:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[12:08] {nemo} hahahahahaha
[12:08] {nemo} short the crossover
[12:08] {nemo} aapl probably short below .45
[12:09] {nemo} holds .60
[12:11] {nemo} stop to .56
[12:11] {RonS} did hell freeze over?  BREAKING: Obama proposes offshore oil drilling from Virginia to Georgia
[12:11] {nemo} yeah, well he proposed to make Alaska off limits a coupla days ago
01[12:11] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:12] {@Threei}  he just picked the spot with no oil?
[12:13] {nemo} out
[12:14] {nemo} shit ticked out
[12:25] {dino} added dia calls
01[12:27] {@Threei}  watching IWM for long on pullback
01[12:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[12:49] {nemo} btw the movie "Fury" worth watching
01[12:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[12:52] {nemo} "A walk among the Tombstones" also
[12:54] {nemo} so, we didn't get the high winds they were predicting, and the snow is pretty light so far, but we've got over 2 feet
[12:55] {dino} only 8" snow here, got lucky, but cold
[12:56] {nemo} yeah, we're supposed to enter into a cold period that rivals any in the past 40 years...global warming
[12:56] {nemo} we have had 3 years in a row of sub "normal" temperatures through all seasons
01[12:57] {@Threei}  55F here...
[12:57] {nemo} yeah, well you have palm trees in your back yard
[12:57] {RonS} 62 here
01[12:57] {@Threei}  and rhododendrons
[12:58] {dino} same here nemo, 3 years of record breaking cold
01[12:58] {@Threei}  and 2 fig trees
[12:58] {nemo} we didn't even have three days in a row of 90f this year
[12:58] {nemo} o.k. palm trees nearby
[12:58] {dino} last year broke some 80 year old record, most consequtive days under 10 f
[12:58] {RonS} ya, 1000 mi south
[12:58] {nemo} no, they have palm trees on Victoria Island Ron
[12:59] {RonS} fir palms
[12:59] {nemo} douche
[12:59] {nemo} SPY breaks the morning high, lookout
01[13:02] {@Threei}  [FB] Introduces new feature to allow tracking of impact of ad campaigns on user behavior
[13:03] {nemo} how are they going to tell when I put my fist through the monitor
01[13:03] {@Threei}  does it mean my habit to eat smoked turkey leg after reading ad for shave cream will be known to Gillet now??
[13:04] {nemo} Gillette...they're headquartered in Boston
[13:04] {nemo} or were
[13:05] {nemo} funny story, a buddy of mine's grandfather had the patent on the safety razor and sold it to Gillette
01[13:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  90 break
01[13:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:14] {nemo} XOP bottoming
01[13:14] {@Threei}  no go
[13:26] {nemo} XOP again
[13:26] {dino} out dia calls from earlier, +.37 / 22%
[13:27] {dino} vdsi to .66
[13:32] {nemo} VXX bounces 29ish
[13:32] {nemo} .20ish
01[13:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  119 break
[13:36] {dptl} gn see ya tomorrow all
01[13:36] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[13:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[13:42] {JoebiWan} ? it went to 119.03
[13:42] {nemo} yeah, but spy finnies and XOP weak
[13:43] {nemo} that was likely the top
[13:50] {dino} vdsi to .79
01[13:51] {@Threei}  it did? I must have slept through it
01[13:51] {@Threei}  yeah, you are right
[13:52] {RonS} wwe backflip
01[13:53] {@Threei}  not delighted by today, not getting rhythm right
[13:53] {RonS} missing the drummer boy eh?
[13:54] {RonS} pii unreal
[13:55] {dino} out vdsi .76, +.41
[13:55] {RonS} gj
[13:56] {nemo} SPY bounce point
[13:56] {dino} ty
[13:56] {dino} omer drop
[13:57] {nemo} omer pyled
[13:58] {nemo} I ronned myself
01[13:58] {@Threei}  8 news headlines per hour
01[13:58] {@Threei}  this is slower than on weekend
[13:58] {RonS} lol
[13:58] {nemo} shit...nothing about the Kardashian's
01[13:58] {@Threei}  no
01[13:58] {@Threei}  sorry
[13:58] {nemo} ...if ever there was a sign of the Apocalypse
01[13:59] {@Threei}  maybe this will compensate:
01[13:59] {@Threei}  - President Obama and the new Saudi Arabia King today discussed energy and stability of the oil market but did not discuss oil prices
01[13:59] {@Threei}  agree, this is not much worse than Kardashian
[13:59] {RonS} grocery checkout headline:  My Butt Implant Broke...
[14:03] {nemo} EBAY
[14:13] {RonS} this was tweeted w/ a picture...too funny:  Racing camels now have full body suits to help them go faster, I'm out
01[14:13] {@Threei}  http://dailyhealthpost.com/gut-bacteria-lose-weight/
01[14:17] {@Threei}  IWM, again
01[14:18] {@Threei}  119 break
01[14:19] {@Threei}  and this one should be 1:3er
01[14:19] {@Threei}  SPY chart totally looks like breakout and run
01[14:19] {@Threei}  .20 is a good magnet to reach and break
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:21] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:21] {@Threei}  jw, consider it an apology for missed break and stop last time around :)
[14:22] {JoebiWan} lol ok
[14:25] {RonS} New Greek finance minister thinks the euro is like Hotel California: "You can check out, but you can never leave" http://bloom.bg/1CKeOXm
[14:25] {RonS} lol...You know a record blizzard didn't live up to expectations when my Canned Air for the keyboard is an effective snow-blower
01[14:26] {@Threei}  he must have read our room... we cited that analogy many times over last few years
[14:29] {nemo} VXX
[14:30] {nemo} long .21
[14:30] {nemo} stop under .15
01[14:32] {@Threei}  out on a trail
[14:32] {nemo} 1:1
[14:33] {nemo} market gonna' be sketchy because of aapl earnings tonight and FED tomorrow
[14:33] {nemo} stop to .18
01[14:34] {@Threei}  [TRP] (US) Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY): Would like to finish with the legislation on the Keystone XL pipeline by the end of the week
[14:35] {nemo} if VXX can consolidate, will creat another long entry here
[14:36] {nemo} must hold .25
01[14:36] {@Threei}  AAPL Apple Pay coming to vending machines and parking meters
[14:37] {nemo} should
[14:37] {nemo} and a hooker near you
[14:37] {nemo} vxx invalidated
01[14:37] {@Threei}  this will be very interesting to see, whether president tries to veto keystone and how it plays out
[14:39] {cosmo} The pipeline should carry finish product from the Alberta refinery
[14:39] {cosmo} finished
[14:43] {nemo} bottom of spy channel
01[14:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .97 break
01[14:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:49] {cosmo} CAT could come back
01[14:49] {@Threei}  they usually do
01[14:49] {@Threei}  if fed properly
[14:50] {cosmo} money in this case
[14:50] {cosmo} watching 80
[14:53] {nemo} msft long, sorry late
[14:54] {nemo} youch
[14:55] {nemo} out below .90
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:57] {nemo} wow they're trying to pulverize msft
[14:58] {RonS} throw it out the window?
01[14:58] {@Threei}  who could blame them
01[14:59] {@Threei}  if you set to find MSFT hater, you won't in all likeliness have to leave your cul-de-sac
[15:00] {cosmo} I'm on a one way cul-de-sac
[15:01] {cosmo} once you're in, you're in for good...
01[15:03] {@Threei}  hotel california? :)
01[15:03] {@Threei}  aka, EU
[15:06] {cosmo} David Gilmore: "There's no way out of here"
[15:10] {nemo} wow, this might actually work
[15:10] {nemo} aapl should short cover into the close
[15:14] {nemo} out msft
[15:15] {nemo} they just keep piling up the offers
01[15:15] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/anton.gerashchenko.7/posts/801351619951687
01[15:15] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[15:17] {RonS} wwe breaking the shorts backs
[15:17] {RonS} +'
01[15:18] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[15:18] {@Threei}  OK... I guess I have no right to judge {G}
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:21] {@Threei}  out
[15:21] {JoebiWan} gj
[15:21] {RonS} a beaut gj
01[15:22] {@Threei}  ty
[15:24] {RonS} ma so old here can rember McDonalds hamburgers at 8 for $1
[15:24] {RonS} am
[15:27] {RonS} ...no Big Macs in those days
[15:29] {RonS} hmmm baba runing into earnings...aapl selling off
[15:30] {RonS} and typing has gone all to hell
01[15:30] {@Threei}  what else is new
01[15:45] {@Threei}  if IWM pulls back qyickly, may get one more trade out of it
[15:45] {nemo} once aapl and FED clear the decks, things shold loosen up
01[15:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  . 65 break
[15:48] {nemo} dino....mbly will be very interesting tomorow
01[15:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[15:49] {RonS} mbly hearing 204 mil sh unlocked
[15:49] {nemo}  {nemo} dino....mbly will be very interesting tomorow
[15:49] {nemo} duh
01[15:50] {@Threei}  nah
01[15:50] {@Threei}  spotty read by me today
[15:51] {nemo} as I said...aapl reporting FED tomorrow
[15:51] {nemo} cloudy day
01[15:55] {@Threei}  ok... let's see what we can squeeze out of tomorrow's morning
01[15:55] {@Threei}  have a good evening!
[15:57] {dino} gn

Jan 26 2015

One of those cases where setup is envisioned and called in advance. Third win of the morning too. 

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)




Session Time: Mon Jan 26 00:00:00 2015
[08:58] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:58] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm...hi there snow dude
01[09:15] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:15] {@Threei}  dashcam video from Mariupol... not something you see every day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbtD8yKd9yE
[09:18] {nemo} ahhh....probably won't be here tomorrow
[09:18] {dino} nemo, seems you and i are getting a pretty good snow storm
[09:18] {dino} about 3" down here already
[09:18] {nemo} we're getting at least two feet and blizzard conditions...I'm only 25 miles inland
[09:19] {dino} we're getting 14" and we just had 6" on this past saturday
01[09:19] {@Threei}  2 feet is serious...
[09:19] {nemo} at least
[09:19] {nemo} http://goo.gl/JmK7rg
01[09:20] {@Threei}  lived through snowstorm with 3-4, snowdrifts created up to 6-7 ft high banks against garage doors
[09:20] {nemo} scroll down to the blue bullseye...I'm right in the middle
01[09:20] {@Threei}  city was paralized for 4 days
[09:21] {nemo} oh shit...back in '78 I had a snowdrift right up to my upstairs bedroom window
[09:21] {nemo} we were shutdown for a week...took snowmobiles into Boston
[09:22] {ese} morning ladies and gentleman......pro D at my school so I can pop in but this will be it until last part of june
01[09:22] {@Threei}  hey ese
[09:22] {nemo} they brought in Terex earthmovers..remember seeing a MGB upside down...it was buried under snow, guy driving the rig never saw it
[09:22] {nemo} scooped it up and dumped it
[09:23] {ese} where was that nemo
[09:23] {ese} hey vad
01[09:23] {@Threei}  so Greece finally rebelled
[09:24] {nemo} A very cold air mass is poised to move south from the arctic late this weekend or early next week. This cold will likely rival anything we have seen this year and has the potential to be the coldest air we have seen in decades.
[09:24] {ese} what'd they do
01[09:24] {@Threei}  now we will find out how far EU will go to placate them
01[09:24] {@Threei}  elected anti-austerity party
[09:25] {ese} ahhhhhhh
[09:25] {RonS} wow stx
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -OCN +30% (response to Gibbs & Bruns in regards to RMBS investors)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ASPS +18% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RMTI +15% (FDA approved Triferic)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -HWAY +15% (confirms exploring strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAMC +11% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RKT +8% (combining with MWV to create a $16B packaging firm)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DHI +7% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GNRC +5% (strength attributed to upcoming northeast blizzard)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -LCI +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CLF +5% (eliminating quarterly dividend)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -IBM +1.2% (laying off more than 100K employees of global workforce)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RGP +15% (ETP merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -PRE -3.6% (confirmed merger with AXS in $11B merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -STX -1.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -NSC -1.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MAT -10% (preliminary results)
[09:29] {RonS} mat ceo resigned
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  32
01[09:33] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {dino} mat missed big too
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop .94
01[09:36] {@Threei}  closed
[09:37] {RonS} guessing Barbie frozened...
01[09:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:39] {@Threei}  wow, it had more in it
[09:40] {RonS} asps changing symbol to yoyo
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .55 break
[09:41] {RonS} saw chatter here that ibm to announce layoffs of 100k this week...
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:41] {nemo} {10k
[09:42] {dino} yes ron, saw that
01[09:42] {@Threei}  [IBM] CNBC tech reporter Fortt says IBM layoffs probably not on the scale of 100K workers as reported in press earlier "$IBM not laying off 100K people as rumored. Its { 10K, evidenced by $600M charge they took last quarter"**NOTE: earlier, IBM said to lay off more than 100K employees (26% of global workforce) as early as next week
01[09:42] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  stop to .59
01[09:47] {@Threei}  Russia warns West not to blackmail it over Ukraine
[09:47] {nemo} 126 long sso
01[09:47] {@Threei}  insolence is pulpable
[09:47] {nemo} stop under .90
[09:47] {nemo} partialed .11
[09:48] {nemo} they ain't playing nice today
01[09:48] {@Threei}  they rarely do
01[09:49] {@Threei}  watching IWM for double bottom
01[09:49] {@Threei}  want pullback under .20
[09:49] {cosmo} chess vs poker...
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:50] {nemo} stop to .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  thing of beauty, and called in advance
[09:51] {nemo} yeah, I entered before typing
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:52] {nemo} out .41
[09:52] {nemo} think vwap will stop it
[09:53] {nemo} http://goo.gl/RLM3AW
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:4, out
[10:04] {dino} dfs hl l .53
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .85 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:12] {dptl} gm
01[10:13] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[10:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -4.4 V 3.2E
[10:36] {dino} oil
01[10:37] {@Threei}  I am sure
[10:37] {RonS} water
01[10:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .80 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:41] {nemo} no sighn of momentum break in indexes
01[10:45] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .92
[10:45] {nemo} VXX .65 break looks interesting if it holds low
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:52] {nemo} VXX
[11:00] {dino} wdc sm l .00
01[11:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  27 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:10] {RonS} June already?
[11:10] {nemo} they haven't indicted him yet?
01[11:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:29] {@Threei}  (close enough)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has urged Russia to stop its support for the separatists in the eastern Ukraine immediately
01[11:38] {@Threei}  Ah yes, Putin said, I'll get right on it
01[11:38] {@Threei}  why didn't I think of it myself
[11:40] {RonS} Putin: "Jens oughtta stick to being Japanese currency..."
[11:41] {RonS} hey Nemo...
[11:41] {nemo} what
[11:43] {RonS} you need to check out the Fox show:  Backstrom...funniest thing have seen in years
[11:43] {nemo} o.k.
[11:43] {RonS} un-PC to a fault
01[11:44] {@Threei}  closed VXX
[11:44] {RonS} "so, was the Indian a dot or a geronimo?..."
[11:44] {dino} when is it on ron?
[11:47] {nemo} CAT looks like setting up short
[11:48] {nemo} if it breaks lows, probably goes to .20s
[11:49] {RonS} dino, Jan 29th...can see the premiers on-line if get snowed in... :)
[11:49] {nemo} and if you have electricity
[11:49] {RonS} http://backstromonline.com/
[11:50] {RonS} ...when was the last time you saw a guy running around with a stogie in his mouth?
01[11:52] {@Threei}  The events in Greece are under the microscope this morning. European finance ministers have reiterated their non-committal stances regarding Syriza's demands for renegotiation, but the consensus seems to be that the EU is open to extension of debt terms and easing reform requirements.
01[11:53] {@Threei}  The unanswered question is what Syriza will finally ask for. Note that the Independent Greece coalition party, while more conservative than left-wing Syriza, is just as uncompromising in its demands for renegotiation.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  OPEC Secretary General El-Badri tried to call a bottom in oil this morning. El-Badri also said he was open to discussions with non-OPEC members to balance oil supply, warning that markets are oversupplied by 1.5 million bpd. He also said some OPEC upstream projects are being cancelled and that oil prices could rise to $200/bbl in three or four years if investment levels do not keep up.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  imbecile
[11:54] {nemo} I like the kid hanging from the bridge
01[11:55] {@Threei}  nemo, I understand ese is not coming to visit you just yet:
01[11:55] {@Threei}  As of writing, nearly 1,800 flights have been canceled nationwide and another 1,600 already have been canceled for Tuesday.
[11:55] {nemo} lucky for him
[11:55] {RonS} syriza... isn't that resin-tasting greek maple syrup?
[11:55] {nemo} that sucked ron
01[11:55] {@Threei}  there are maples in greece?
[11:56] {RonS} first maples in greece, then naples in italy
01[11:56] {@Threei}  oh boy
[11:56] {cosmo} canceling those flights should help fight global warming...
[11:57] {RonS} ...where's my meds...
[11:57] {nemo} where ARE my meds
01[11:57] {@Threei}  I kind of hoped maples are purely canadian trees... after all, we don't have olive trees here, would only be fair if Greece didn't have maples?
[11:57] {nemo} CAT going down
01[11:58] {@Threei}  when global cooling starts, you'll regret ever fighting warming cosmo
[11:59] {nemo} sheesh...we've had colder than normal winters and summers for the last 3 years
01[11:59] {@Threei}  doesn't matter nemo, propaganda machine doesn't turn around that quickly
[11:59] {nemo} we about to enter the coldest 10 day stretch in decades
01[12:00] {@Threei}  progression of propaganda:
01[12:00] {@Threei}  global cooling - global warming - climate change - climate instability
01[12:01] {@Threei}  cooling was not so cool anymore after some wqrm period, warming stopped being hot after some cooldown,
[12:02] {RonS} ...all Mark Twain's fault
01[12:02] {@Threei}  change sounded not so different since climate always changes,
01[12:02] {@Threei}  instability is currently holding up, for now
[12:02] {nemo} VXX
01[12:03] {@Threei}  (see what I did in all 4 cases? Ron's fault...)
[12:04] {nemo} Ron's a right-wing reactionary
01[12:05] {@Threei}  anything's wrong with that?
[12:05] {RonS} Twain:  : "everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it"
[12:05] {nemo} did I say there was?
01[12:05] {@Threei}  I am cranky curmudgeon
01[12:05] {@Threei}  as such, I like reactionares
[12:05] {nemo} got nothing on me u uke
01[12:06] {@Threei}  thought this was what you refered to, Ron
[12:07] {cosmo} It's all Algore's fault...
[12:07] {RonS} yep, his 22,000 sq ft house
[12:08] {RonS} and jetting around
[12:08] {RonS} and constantly blowing hot air
01[12:08] {@Threei}  and planes dekivering speakers to all lying movie presentations
[12:08] {cosmo} And his karmic commupence has affected us all
01[12:08] {@Threei}  Convenient Lie
[12:10] {cosmo} comeuppance
[12:14] {nemo} VXX
01[12:18] {@Threei}  http://www.kyivpost.com/guide/people/ukraines-diana-harkusha-is-miss-universe-second-runner-up-378464.html
01[12:18] {@Threei}  good thing planes are grounded, nemo would be flying to Ukraine by now
01[12:18] {@Threei}  on Miami
[12:19] {nemo} that's a long way to go for trouble...I just go to the grocery store and let the MILFs try to pick me up
01[12:19] {@Threei}  or*
01[12:19] {@Threei}  do they?
[12:19] {nemo} yeah...happened again yesterday...tough to concentrate when I'm trying to keep track of my father
01[12:20] {@Threei}  think "what would Hank Moody do"
[12:20] {nemo} it's amazing how fast an 82 year old man can move
[12:20] {nemo} unfortunately, I don't live in a TV show
[12:21] {dino} lol
[12:21] {nemo} don't think the FWB would go for it either
[12:21] {dino} nemo working the frozen food section
[12:21] {nemo} The ex-german girlfriend wanted to visit last summer...that was turning into a problem
01[12:21] {@Threei}  alll those melons...
[12:21] {nemo} actually, it was the fruits and vegetables
[12:22] {nemo} I kinda' saw it coming, she starts talking to my father, I'm like...mmmmhhhhh
[12:22] {nemo} VXX
[12:22] {dino} out wdc 99.81, +1.81
01[12:22] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:22] {nemo} think it's a good bet for a long here
[12:23] {nemo} needs to get above .15 soon
[12:23] {dino} ty
[12:23] {nemo} looks like the tops might be in
[12:28] {nemo} oh cool...Bernie Kosar's daughter is a porn star
01[12:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
[12:29] {nemo} it never went under
01[12:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .98
[12:29] {RonS} Massachusetts governor announces MBTA service will shut down at midnight, no service Tuesday
[12:30] {nemo} No soup for you!
[12:30] {nemo} not sure I have enough vodka to get through the storm....Road Trip!!!
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:37] {@Threei}  "If I'm nobody in this life and nobody is perfect, does that make me perfect?"
01[12:38] {@Threei}  stop .19
[12:39] {nemo} likely to test under .20, think that's the bottom though
01[12:48] {@Threei}  (US) Obama Admin releases plan to control healthcare costs in Medicare program by moving toward focus on qualitative care rather than fee-for-service - press - Health and Human Services says it plans to migrate health care spending away from costly fee-for-service charges and toward alternative payment models. Wants to move 50% of Medicare's payments to alternative payment models by 2018 (vs about 20% of Medicare payments currently going to healthcare providers with cost saving models today).
01[12:48] {@Threei}  - The goal is to align healthcare spending toward payment models that link payments to providers to effective and management of patient treatments, rather than the fee-for-service model that has been blamed for boosting costs and authorizing unnecessary procedures.
01[12:49] {@Threei}  interesting idea... can't imagine how it can be realized
[12:50] {nemo} oh jeez...53% of last 20 days
[12:50] {RonS} = 10.6 days
[12:51] {nemo} douche
[12:54] {nemo} yeah Ron...this show weird
[12:56] {RonS} Forbes reviewer said cbs dropped 'cause just too hot...
[12:57] {nemo} not quite mainstream network fare
01[12:59] {@Threei}  *(RU) S&P LOWERS RUSSIA RATING TO JUNK
[13:05] {nemo} oh jeez the paedophile is back
01[13:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  .90 break
01[13:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[13:40] {nemo} EBAY below .05 can be a short
[13:40] {nemo} stop above .10
[13:40] {nemo} two way?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  meh
01[13:41] {@Threei}  first stop today
01[13:41] {@Threei}  I like long EBAY
01[13:41] {@Threei}  maybe DKTK is better way to play it
[13:42] {nemo} nice bear flag
[13:42] {nemo} plus it's almost 2
[13:45] {nemo} markets moving up but ebay not...they come in probably works
[13:52] {JoebiWan} mcd
01[14:17] {@Threei}  The morning commute in West Vancouver, B.C. was tied up by a "slow-moving" beaver who decided to cross the road.
01[14:17] {@Threei}  Traffic at 15th Avenue and Bellevue Street was blocked as police tweeted urgent updates.
01[14:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[14:20] {@Threei}  .c 31
01[14:20] {@Threei}  If holds  31
[14:35] {RonS} oled took the pipe
[14:37] {dino} slow
[14:37] {nemo} relative volume very low...
[14:37] {dino} my scanners barely moving
[14:38] {nemo} good movie
01[14:38] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:45] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Govt confirms known human case of H7N9 bird flu in North America in individual coming China; individual is recovering
01[14:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .95 break
01[14:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:01] {dptl} gn all see you tomorrow
01[15:01] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:10] {@Threei}  trying to decipher eod direction
[15:11] {nemo} this low volume likely means float
[15:13] {dino} took all day, but out dfs .76, +.23
01[15:15] {@Threei}  it was waiting for you to say it nemo :)
[15:16] {nemo} low volume making for jerky setups
01[15:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[15:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[15:22] {@Threei}  if dives under 119, will change trigger
01[15:34] {@Threei}  GKTK is still the way to go
01[15:34] {@Threei}  D
01[15:39] {@Threei}  come on, break .10
01[15:39] {@Threei}  and run
01[15:39] {@Threei}  fly
[15:41] {RonS} Feds charge 3 men in New York City with spying for Russia http://bloom.bg/1CIWg9Z
01[15:45] {@Threei}  meaning, we were onto them for years and now the moment is right politically
01[15:54] {@Threei}  stop to .99
01[15:54] {@Threei}  2 min to make up its mind
[15:55] {dino} gn all
01[15:55] {@Threei}  ok, scratchiong IWM
[15:55] {dino} time to plow driveway, about 6" down so far
01[15:56] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:56] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:56] {nemo} time to go to the liquor store
01[15:56] {@Threei}  thsnk you all, have a good evening
01[15:56] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {nemo} maybe not
01[15:56] {@Threei}  hopefully
[15:56] {JoebiWan} cya all. gl on east coast