Friday, February 3, 2017

Markets Vacillate on Executive Orders

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Vacillate on Executive Orders 
Fri, 03 Feb 2017 16:15 PM EST

US Stock indices dipped early in the week, as the world reacted to President Trump firing out a 90-day ban on travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries in the name of security. The poorly explained order created confusion and concern in the international and business communities and sparked protests at US airports. As the furor died down, stocks finished the week on a high after a string of generally robust economic data and action from Washington aimed at reducing regulation. On Wednesday, Congress repealed regulations on the coal industry and on Friday President Trump signed an executive order designed to scale back Dodd-Frank legislation. Higher than expected GDP helped prop up the Euro against most major currencies. Stock markets returned to rally mode late in the week, reacting positively to the latest read on the US jobs market on Friday. For the week, the S&P500 rose 0.1%, the Nasdaq added 0.1%, and the DJIA lost 0.1%.

Employers added more jobs than expected in January, but wage increases were soft and the unemployment rate rose, suggesting continued labor market slack. The disappointment on wages lessens the urgency about raising rates marginally, but investors should be prepared for warnings from officials that wages are a lagging indicator. Also, the fact that the job market is strong enough to pull people into the labor force is an indication that monetary policy remains stimulative, and that the FOMC needs to remain vigilant about staying too loose for too long. Speaking after the jobs report, FOMC voter and dove Evans noted he still expects just two rate hikes this year but could be comfortable with three, and wouldn’t rule out a move in March. Fed fund futures still suggest overall market expectations are for two hikes this year, one less than the median forecast of the FOMC.

The FOMC kept rates on hold as expected after the hike in December. The policy statement gave a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economy and showed more confidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target. As expected, there was no change to the Fed’s reinvestment policy, though analysts may soon begin to clamor for guidance on this issue. Chair Yellen will have a chance to mold expectations further when she testifies on Capitol Hill mid-month.

The BoE also maintained rates at current levels, with a unanimous vote 9 - 0. The central bank also upgraded GDP growth forecast but at the same time gave another warning of the dangers involved in the future Brexit negotiations. The market appeared to factor in less of a chance for a near term rate hike which led to the Pound selling off 1.3% in two days.

The UK parliament ratified a 137 word bill that gives the go ahead to PM May to trigger Article 50 of the European Union constitution and start Brexit negotiations. PM May also presented a white paper with substantially the same points mentioned in her various speeches about the meaning of Brexit, two main points being reducing immigration and boosting free trade.

Iran fired a ballistic missile in apparent violation of the UN nuclear deal reached during the last administration. The White House took swift action to sanction 13 individuals and 12 companies involved in Iran’s missile program. President Trump took to twitter on multiple occasions calling out Iran leaders and warning of further action to come. WTI crude prices finished the week only modestly higher and remain pinned in the low to mid $50's.

China and Japan took monetary action in somewhat opposite directions. The PBOC partially defended a devaluing Yuan with tightening action while the BoJ emphasized it will remain stimulative. The PBOC hiked key interest rates for open market reverse repos by 10 basis points and the Lending Facility rate was increased to 3.1% from 2.75%. In Japan the central bank intervened in the market buying 10-year bonds to drive yield to its target 0%. The Yuan continued to strengthen throughout the week despite coinciding with the Chinese New Year.

On the corporate side, a slew of earnings came down the pike this week. Under Armour shares plunged after posting weak earnings, cutting its outlook, and announcing a CFO departure. Facebook earnings delivered, but shares experienced some profit-taking, as expense growth and competition led some to begin to look past its dominant business model. UPS failed to deliver as Q4 results missed targets and it provided tepid 2017 guidance. Microsoft came to market with a 7-part bond offering, and Apple joined in, launching its own nine-part $10B deal, which may have sopped up some fixed income demand. On the M&A front, Rite-Aid slumped after the offer from Walgreens Boots Alliance was revised to $6.50-7.00 from $9.00/share. Mead Johnson surged on word of a $90/share cash bid from Reckitt Benckiser. And Macy’s jumped on another report of potential takeover, this time from Canada’s Hudson’s Bay.


MONDAY JAN 30th
(EU) EURO ZONE JAN BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 0.77 V 0.80E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): -4.7 V -4.9E
(DE) GERMANY JAN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.6% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.0%E;(highest annual level in 3 1/2 years)
(US) DEC PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E
(US) DEC PERSONAL INCOME: 0.3% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.5% V 0.5%E
(US) DEC PCE CORE M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
(US) Atlanta Fed forecasts initial Q1 GDP growth at 2.3%
(EU) Revised Euro Zone Jan Consumer Confidence at -4.9 v -4.9e (revised from earlier reported -4.7)
(JP) BOJ LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%, AS EXPECTED; RAISES OUTLOOK FOR PRICES

TUESDAY JAN 31st
(FR) FRANCE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.1%E
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates that economic recovery remains on a moderate trend - post rate decision press conference
(FR) FRANCE JAN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.1%E
(DE) GERMANY JAN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -26K V -5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.9% V 6.0%E;(post-reunification record low)
(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E
(EU) EURO ZONE DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.6% V 9.8%E;(lowest level since 2009)
(EU) EURO ZONE JAN CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.5%E (highest since Feb 2013); CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E
UPS Reports Q4 $1.63 v $1.68e, R$16.9B v $17.0Be
(US) Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.5% V 0.6%E
(US) JAN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 50.3 V 55.0E;(lowest since May 2016)
(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 111.8 V 112.8E
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net €2.51B v €2.1Be; Industrial Business Profit: €2.52B v €1.99B y/y, Rev €19.1B v €18.9B y/y; Raises FY17 basic EPS €7.20-7.70 (prior €6.80-7.20)
X Reports Q4 $0.27 (ex $0.88 in charges, unclear if comp) v $0.01e, R$2.65B v $2.67Be
AAPL Reports Q1 $3.36 v $3.22e, R$78.4B v $77Be
(UK) EU Brexit Negotiator Verhofstadt: What I know is the outstanding commitments now and before Britain will leave the European Union will in total be around €600B - press (update)
(CN) CHINA JAN MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.3 (6th consecutive month of expansion, 3-month low) V 51.2E; Non-manufacturing PMI: 54.6 v 54.5 prior

WEDS FEB 1st
(HK) Macau Jan Gaming Rev MOP19.3B v MOP20.3Be; y/y: +3.1% v +8.9%e
ROG.CH Reports FY16 Core EPS CHF14.53 v CHF13.49 y/y, Core operating profit CHF18.4B v CHF17.5B y/y, Rev CHF50.6B v CHF50.7Be
(UK) JAN PMI MANUFACTURING: 55.9 V 55.9E;(6th month of expansion)
(US) JAN ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +246K V +168KE
GM Reports Jan US sales -3.8% y/y, to 195.9K units v 206.1Ke
(US) JAN FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.0 V 55.1E
(US) JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 56.0 V 55.0E; PRICES PAID: 69.0 V 65.5E;(Manufacturing Index highest since Nov 2014, Prices Paid highest since May 2011)
(US) DOE CRUDE: +6.5M (highest since Aug) V +3ME; GASOLINE: +3.9M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +1.6M V -0.5ME
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q1 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 2.3% on 1/30
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 28th: 529.7K carloads and intermodal units, +3.3% y/y
(US) FOMC HOLDS TARGET RATE RANGE AT 0.50-0.75%, AS EXPECTED; REPEATS MONETARY POLICY REMAINS ACCOMMODATIVE, INFLATION WILL RISE TO 2%
(UK) UK lawmakers vote in favor of Article 50 draft law to advance legislation to next phase - press
FB Reports Q4 $1.41 (adj) v $1.34e, R$8.81B v $8.47Be
LSTR Reports Q4 $0.94 v $0.87e, R$893M v $820Me
(AU) AUSTRALIA DEC TRADE BALANCE (A$): 3.5B V +2.0BE (record surplus)

THURS FEB 2nd
NOK1V.FI Reports Q4 adj Op €940M v €766Me, Rev €6.72B v €6.79Be
DBK.DE Reports Q4 loss Net €1.89B v loss €1.32Be, Pretax loss €2.42B v loss €1.49Be, Rev €7.07B v €6.64B y/y
DAI.DE Reports Q4 EPS €2.10 v €2.16e, EBIT €3.58B v €3.74Be, Rev €41B v €40.4Be
AZN.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS $1.21 v $1.13e, Rev $5.59B v $5.61Be
VOD.UK Reports Q3 Rev £13.7B v £14.2B y/y; Service organic Rev +1.7% v +1.5%e y/y
RDSA.NL Reports Q4 Basic CCS EPS $0.22 v $0.25 y/y, CCS earnings (ex items) $1.03B v $1.84B y/y, Rev $64.8B v $58.1B y/y
MRK Reports Q4 $0.89 v $0.88e, R$10.12 v $10.2Be
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED
(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.05%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) BOE FEB MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 (UNANIMOUS) TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT;(QIR)
(UK) BOE Gov Carney: Brexit to determine UK medium term outlook - Quarterly Inflation Report Press Conference
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 246K V 250KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.06M V 2.06ME
NYT Reports Q4 $0.30 v $0.23e, R$439.7M v $437Me
(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 1.3% V 1.0%E; LABOR COSTS: 1.7% V 1.9%E
AMZN Reports Q4 $1.54 v $1.40e, R$43.7B v $44.9Be
V Reports Q1 $0.86 GAAP v $0.78e, R$4.46B v $4.28Be
(HK) HONG KONG JAN COMPOSITE PMI: 49.9 v 50.3 PRIOR (in contraction for 22nd out of 23 months)
(CN) CHINA JAN CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.0 V 51.8E (7th consecutive expansion)

FRIDAY FEB 3rd
(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) LEAVES 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE UNCHANGED AT 10.00%; AS EXPECTED
(US) JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.8% V 4.7%E
(US) JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +227K V +180KE
(US) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.4 V 34.3E
(US) JAN FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 55.6 V 55.1 PRELIM (highest since Nov 2015)
(US) DEC FINAL DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -0.5% V -0.4% PRELIM; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.5% V 0.5% PRELIM
(US) JAN FINAL ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.5 V 57.0E
M Reportedly Hudson's Bay makes takeover approach - press
(US) Fed's Evans (dove, voter): expects 2 rate hikes this year, could be comfortable with 3 rate hikes in 2017 - Q&A with reporters