Weekly Market Update: Initial Q2 earnings unable to stave off resurgent inflation and Covid concerns
Markets struggled to find direction this week as concerns about Covid variants and the potential for a prolonged period of inflation weighed on sentiment despite a solid start to the Q2 earnings season. US data showed higher-than-expected inflation which may be eroding consumer confidence readings, though advanced retail sales were above forecast. Tuesday’s CPI data came in hot, with the 5.4% y/y reading at its highest annual rate since mid-2008, the crescendo of the housing bubble. Fed officials continued to drop hints about future plans for tapering QE, including the Chicago Fed’s Evans suggesting unemployment reaching 4.5% by year end could dictate some adjustment. For his part, Chair Powell remained steadfast in his stance that tapering is still ‘a ways off’ in Congressional testimony.
On the political front, Democrats on Capitol Hill arrived at a $3.5T budget for spending and tax plans, including a Medicare expansion. Sino-American tension grew as the Biden Administration issued a business advisory, warning companies of the risks around China’s growing influence in Hong Kong, which Beijing strongly objected to. Crude oil prices were pointed lower for most of the week on reports that Saudi Arabia has given in to UAE demands to ease production restrictions. There was also a modest sell off in stocks, though a flight to safety was not especially apparent as gold was about flat and demand was lackluster in the 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions. For the week, the S&P lost 1%, the down slipped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%.
In corporate news this week, earnings season kicked off as major banks began reporting their quarterly results. JPMorgan traded lower despite reporting its Q2 profit more than doubled year on year, while Goldman Sachs jumped after big beats on both its top and bottom line. Bank of America shares fell after low interest rates squeezed its Q2 revenue. Wells Fargo was the only lender out of the four biggest to post an increase in revenue last quarter, notching its highest revenue since before COVID started. Morgan Stanley beat Wall Street consensus estimates despite weak results in its fixed-income, currency and commodities segments.
Delta Airlines reported a beat on its top and bottom line, noting that it sees domestic leisure travel as fully recovered now to 2019 levels. Union Pacific said it would suspend shipments for 7 days from West Coast ports to Chicago in order to ease congestion on the tracks. Netflix announced it would be entering the video game market and planned to offer streaming games beginning next year. Apple is reportedly seeking to boost iPhone production by 20% in the current year - press
SUN 7/11 6758.JP Expect that robots will takeover manufacturing of TVs, cameras and smartphones, unmanned production lines expected to cut costs by 70% at main TV factory in Malaysia by 2023 v 2018 - FT 000660.KR Started mass production of of 8GB LPDDR4 mobile DRAM based on 1a-nm EUV process this month; Expect 1a-nm DRAM to alleviate supply and demand conditions
MON 7/12 LCAP Announces business Combination with MSP Recovery, a Leader in Data-Driven Solutions, Recovering Improperly Paid Benefits on Behalf of Medicare, Medicaid and Commercial Payers in deal valued at $32.6B (US) June NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Median inflation expectations increased 0.8ppts in June to 4.8% at the one-year horizon AVGO Reportedly in talks to acquires SAS Institute Inc for as much as $20B - press *(US) TREASURY'S $38B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.371%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.39 V 2.58 PRIOR AND 2.44 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS MCD Franchisees agree to adopt employee incentive plan which includes childcare and other benefits - press
TUES 7/13 MDCA Raises FY21 Organic Rev ~+9-11% (prior 7-9%), adj EBITDA $200-210M (prior $190-200M), citing continues strong demand in Q2 - filing (HU) Hungary Fin Min Varga: OECD "two-pillar" minimum global tax proposal "far from acceptable" JPM Reports Q2 $3.03 adj (ex reserve release) v $3.05e, Managed Rev $31.4B v $30.0Be; Ave loans "flat" q/q FAST Reports Jun net sales $533.4M +1.7% y/y GS Reports Q2 $15.02 v $9.57e, Rev $15.4B v $11.5Be; Confirms to raise dividend 60% to $2.00/shr from $1.25/shr (indicated yield 2.17%) CAG Reports Q4 $0.54 v $0.52e, Rev $2.74B v $2.74Be; Now expect FY22 input cost inflation to be materially higher than we anticipated at the end-Q3; Raises annual dividend to $1.25/shr from $1.10/shr BINANCE.IPO Suspends withdrawals GBP and EUR as payment provider Clear Junction has stopped facilitating them (HK) Biden administration to issue a business advisory warning companies of growing China influence in Hong Kong, increasing the risk of operating in HK - press *(US) JUN CPI M/M: 0.9% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 4.9%E (highest annual rate since Jun 2008) *(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.00%; BID TO COVER 2.19 V 2.29 PRIOR AND 2.40 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS *(US) JUN MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$174.2B V -$192.0BE AAL Guides Q2 -$1.76 to -$1.67 v $2.32e, Raises Q2 Rev -37% vs 2019 (prior -40% vs 2019), guides Q2 ASMs -24.6% vs 2019 (prior -25% to -20% vs 2019) (US) Fitch affirms United States sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Negative (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -4.1M v -8.0M prior (8th straight weekly draw) AVGO Reportedly no longer in talks to acquire SAS Institute for $20B - press AAPL Said to be seeking 20% increase in iPhone production in the current year - press (US) Senator Schumer (D-NY): Senate Democrats have arrived at a $3.5T budget deal for spending and tax plans; budget to include Medicare expansion
WEDS 7/14 *(UK) JUN CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.2%E (2nd month annual pace above BOE target and highest since 2018) BAC Reports Q2 $1.03 v $0.78e, Rev $21.5B v $21.8Be; Says consumer spending significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels, loan levels have begun to grow; Total Loans & Leases -0.08% y/y (AE) UAE and Saudi Arabia said to have reached compromise in oil production deal - press DAL Reports Q2 -$1.07 v -$1.37e, Rev $7.13B v $6.30Be; Says domestic leisure travel is fully recovered to 2019 levels DAL CEO: we are in a full recovery of our business - CNBC interview MAR CEO: US recovery has been led by leisure with Strong pricing power - CNBC interview *(US) JUN PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 1.0% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 6.7%E (US) Fed chief Powell semi-annual testimony in House Committee on Financial Services: Still a ways off from meeting tapering threshold; Long term inflation expectations are consistent with Fed goals *(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED; CUTS QE BOND BUYING PROGRAM TO C$2B PER WEEK FROM C$3B *(US) DOE CRUDE: -7.9M V -4ME; GASOLINE: +1.0M V -2ME; DISTILLATE: +3.7M V +1ME (8th straight weekly decline in crude stocks; Crude stocks fall to lowest since Jan 2020) (US) Fed Chair Powell: If Fed sees inflation remaining materially higher for a period of time, threatening inflation expectations, then the Fed will change its policy - testimony to House Committee on Financial Services (US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY STRENGTHENED FROM LATE MAY TO EARLY JULY; OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND IMPROVED FURTHER BUT SOME EXPRESSED UNCERTAINTY OR PESSIMISM OVER EASING OF SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AIG To sell 9.9% equity stake in Life & Retirement business to Blackstone for $2.2B cash; To sell certain affordable housing assets to Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. for $5.1B NFLX Entering video game market, will offer streaming games next year; former Electronic Arts, Zynga and Facebook executive Mike Verdu to lead - press *(CN) CHINA Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 7.9% V 8.0%E (**Note prior quarter growth revised lower by 33%)
THURS 7/15 2330.TW Reports Final Q2 (NT$) Net 134.4B v 120.8B y/y; Op 145.7B v 131.1B y/y, Rev 372.2B v 372.2B prelim; Says auto chip shortages to be gradually reduced for customers starting Q3 (UK) BOE’s Saunders (dove): Withdrawing stimulus may be appropriate fairly soon; any rate rise in the next year will likely be limited WIT Reports Q1 (INR) Net 32.4B v 28.3Be, Rev 182.5B v 176.3Be; Guides Q2 Rev above cons ests PAG Reports prelim Q2 adj >$4.00 v $2.04e citing strength of the auto and commercial truck retail model AXTA Announces Global Price Increases across all of its global lines of business, effective immediately *(US) JULY EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 43.0 V 18.0E (record high) *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 360K V 350KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.24M V 3.30ME *(US) JULY PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 21.9 V 28.0E (US) Fed Chair Powell: bar for the Fed to start tapering asset purchases is still a ways off - Senate testimony (US) Fed's Evans (dove, voter): if unemployment is at 4.5% by the end of the 2021, would guess some adjustment in stance would be appropriate AA Reports Q2 $1.49 adj v $1.35e, Rev $2.83B v $2.61Be; Raises FY21 shipment outlook - Raises FY21 aluminum shipments 2.9-3.0M metric tons, total annual bauxite shipments 50-51M dry metric tons, total alumina shipments 14.1 RIO.AU Reports Q2 Pilbara iron ore shipments 76.3Mt v 86.7Mt y/y; Pilbara iron ore production 75.9Mt v 83.2Mt y/y (CN) China Carbon Emissions Market opens up at CNY48/ton
FRI 7/16 *(EU) EURO ZONE JUN FINAL CPI Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E *(US) JUN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: +0.6% V -0.3%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: +1.3% V +0.4%E KSU Exec: Saw core pricing gains in the quarter - conf call comments *(US) JULY PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 80.8 V 86.5E (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 7.5% from 7.9% UNPSuspends shipments for 7 days from West Coast ports to Chicago to ease congestion – press