Sept 04 2014

Another decent day, not without stops but with positive trades outweighing them nicely. A bit on a slow side today

Session Time: Thu Sep 04 00:00:00 2014
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:10] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:12] {RonS} gm guys
01[09:12] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {nemo} aapl hit resistance
[09:13] {nemo} good spy volume this morning
01[09:14] {@Threei}  just gapped the wrong way {G}
[09:14] {nemo} http://goo.gl/LfdH8d
[09:14] {troub} good morning
01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:14] {nemo} I'll sign back in later...don't want to puke on my keyboard
01[09:15] {@Threei}  he is so sensitive...
[09:16] {RonS} lol
01[09:19] {@Threei}  oh, good morning nemo, how are you today? I trust you are just fine, and your day starts sunny
[09:22] {nemo} Vad, mailing a present off today for you to open at Xmas...just ignore the ticking sound
01[09:22] {@Threei}  oh thank you, this is so thoughtful!
[09:23] {nemo} yes, it's to help you in your spiritual transition
[09:23] {nemo} AAPL
[09:23] {nemo} looks short here
[09:23] {nemo} gonna' test .10
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MITK +62% (settles USAA lawsuit)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -BOLT +35% (being acquired by Teledyne for $22/shr)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MAGS +10% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -PVH +9% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -TIBX +7% (announces review of strategic alternatives)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -NLNK +4% (receives FDA approval to proceed with Phase 1 trial of Ebola vaccine)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MTRX -15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SMLP -5% (prices 4.35M unit upsized secondary at $53.88/shr - prev 4M units)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MEMP -4.5% (prices 13M offering at $22.29/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MBLY -4.2% (earnings & FY guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DDD -2.8% (cautious broker commentary)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NRF -2.6% (prices 45M offering at $18.40/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YUM -2.6% (sees negative impact in China from bad publicity re food handling)
[09:26] {nemo} hit .11
[09:26] {nemo} needs to stay under .l45
[09:26] {nemo} .45
[09:26] {nemo} probably wick over .50 though
[09:32] {nemo} aapl downhill good for a buck
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:34] {@Threei}  nice AAPL call
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:36] {@Threei}  quite a jump
[09:36] {dino} gj
[09:37] {dino} added mitk puts
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:39] {nemo} this 40 area yesterday's vwap
[09:40] {nemo} I think .45 a possibility
01[09:44] {@Threei}  stop to .36
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:45] {@Threei}  09:45 *(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 59.5 V 58.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (US) Federal Reserve paper comments on unemployment; finds that much of decline in participation rate has been structural in nature
[09:46] {nemo} watch aapl 99.50ish
01[09:54] {@Threei}  kangaroo tail
01[09:54] {@Threei} Short Setup: AAPL  .50 break hl
[09:54] {nemo} damn
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:56] {nemo} SPY looks like short setting up
[09:56] {nemo} two way
01[10:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .55 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 59.6 V 57.7E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[10:07] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
[10:15] {nemo} oops
01[10:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:22] {dino} out sndk calls from tuesday, +1.26/+18%
01[10:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:26] {nemo} aapl short setting up
[10:26] {nemo} could go to 100.25ish
[10:28] {dino} scanners slow today
[10:30] {RonS} AMSC: American Superconductor trading halted, news pending
01[10:30] {@Threei}  [BP] US Federal judge rules BP was grossly negligent in 2010 Macondo GoM oil spill - financial press - BP disputes finding, claims that their errors don't satisfy threshold to be considered grossly negligent**NOTE: BP has already agreed to pay $13.7B in fines, but some reports about the current gross negligence trial have indicated that BP could face up to $18B in additional fines.- Follow up: RIG and HAL reportedly cleared of gross negligence claims in the Macando spill
01[10:31] {@Threei}  been a long while since we traded BP and RIG
01[10:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BO  .90 break
01[10:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .90 break
01[10:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:45] {@Threei}  no go
[10:45] {nemo} whoa
[10:45] {nemo} they're open to big liabilities now
01[10:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break
01[10:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take half lot here
01[10:57] {@Threei}  aggressively
01[10:57] {@Threei}  to add haklf on .40 break
01[11:00] {@Threei}  stop for first half is .24
[11:07] {nemo} BP sprung a leak ...homage to Ron
01[11:09] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:10] {@Threei}  half out
01[11:11] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[11:11] {@Threei}  love those aggressive entries
[11:20] {RonS} apc pulp moves
01[11:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .38
01[11:31] {@Threei}  shorting SPY itself is probably better way than long VXX
01[11:31] {@Threei}  20 cents drop SPY, VXX barely upticked
[11:31] {nemo} tomorrow vxx
01[11:32] {@Threei}  why?
[11:32] {nemo} Friday more weekend risk
[11:32] {nemo} Draghi had kumbaya day
01[11:33] {@Threei}  yes but... why doesn't it move in closer tandem with SPY
[11:33] {nemo} related to options
[11:33] {nemo} no fear Thursday
[11:34] {nemo} Not a consistent correlation
[11:37] {nemo} spy should retrace to vwap from here
[11:40] {nemo} friggin' bp
[11:46] {nemo} Oy vay, Roadkill day for me
01[11:47] {@Threei}  half out VXX
01[11:53] {@Threei}  closed balance on a trail
01[12:09] {@Threei}  - Super Mario made a bold move to forestall Eurozone deflation this morning, cutting rates and teeing up an asset purchase program. Markets loved the news and European equity indices (with the exception of the FTSE) are up sharply and looking to close at their highs, while sovereign yield curves have steepen notably.
[12:11] {nemo} BP 44.80 area maybe
[12:28] {nemo} BP two way
[12:41] {nemo} BP
[12:43] {dino} clw spike
[13:34] {troub} .
[13:34] {dino} interesting point
[13:35] {troub} so said Custer
[13:43] {dino} slow day
[13:48] {nemo} market looking lower
[13:48] {nemo} would think spy wants to check out 201 again though
01[13:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .80 break
01[13:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[13:56] {@Threei}  probably two-sided
[13:56] {nemo} I think it checks 201 first
01[13:57] {@Threei}  with this dried up volume, hard to tell, but it's a strong possibility
01[13:57] {@Threei}  so twi-sided
[13:58] {nemo} sheesh
[13:59] {nemo} is the VXX conscious?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  doesn't look this way
[14:00] {nemo} aapl weak putting pressure on RUT and Qxs
[14:00] {nemo} Qs
01[14:00] {@Threei}  something weird happens in Ukraine negotiations
01[14:00] {@Threei}  sides pre-announce tomorrow's cease-fire and peace sttlement talks
01[14:00] {@Threei}  but the conditions that Russia set can not be accepted by Kiev
01[14:02] {@Threei}  don't know, they might be trying to win some time to get support from NATO or regroup for a new threat, regular Russianarmy
01[14:02] {@Threei}  increased chatter of 9/11 attack though keeps market from getting all happy
01[14:04] {@Threei}  here comes 201
01[14:05] {@Threei}  anyway, half out here
[14:07] {nemo} hahahaha
[14:07] {nemo} sheesh
[14:07] {nemo} keep ur head on a swivel
01[14:08] {@Threei}  that's what partial/trail is for
01[14:08] {@Threei}  protects you from these sharp turns of destiny
01[14:09] {@Threei}  hmmm... nice new nick for nemo
[14:09] {nemo} ?
01[14:09] {@Threei}  sharp turn of destiny
[14:09] {nemo} bit cumbersome
01[14:10] {@Threei}  SToD then
01[14:10] {@Threei}  and be thankful it does include that small o
[14:10] {nemo} cute
01[14:10] {@Threei}  that's me... cute
06[14:11] * nemo faints
01[14:11] {@Threei}  hehe
01[14:32] {@Threei}  breakdown
01[14:32] {@Threei}  .80 break idea was right
01[14:36] {@Threei}  look at VXX
01[14:36] {@Threei}  woke up suddenly
[14:49] {nemo} indexes going for yesterday's lows
01[15:00] {@Threei}  no news
01[15:00] {@Threei}  sharp dive
01[15:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SHLD  .10 break hl
01[15:10] {@Threei}  If holds  33
01[15:19] {@Threei}  wow VXX
01[15:19] {@Threei}  I need nemo to explain this
01[15:21] {@Threei}  meh'
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  116 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[15:38] {@Threei}  nah
[15:46] {dino} out mitk calls from earlier, +.30/+19%
01[15:47] {@Threei}  wtg
[15:47] {dino} ty
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you, have a good evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:47] {dino} couldn't borrow so went puts
[15:49] {dino} hclp blood today, hit 69 few days ago, watching it
[15:51] {dino} calling it a day, gn all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  you too

September-October 2014 Outlook: Going to Extremes

TradeTheNews.com  Going to Extremes

The headlines this summer - Russian weapons and troops magnifying the bloodshed in Ukraine, Hamas rocket attacks inviting a terrible reprisal from Israel, ISIS militants ravaging Iraq, a new civil war brewing in Libya, and the worst ever outbreak of Ebola in Africa - have done surprising little damage to market confidence and the expectation that the economic recovery will continue. The S&P500 notched a record high above 2,000, bond yields haven't budged off their recent lows, and commodities have showed almost no reaction to these geopolitical flare ups.

The next two months may see more obstacles placed on the wall of worry, but it's hard to say if events will send the markets in a new direction. After years of providing copious accommodation, global central banks are about to move in opposite directions, with some looking to add even more stimulus while others start to withdraw extraordinary accommodation. This divergence could be a trigger for a global retrenchment, especially when the markets decide it's time to start anticipating Fed tightening next year. Corporate events too can play a role, as firms need to confirm continued momentum in the economy when they report Q3 results in October. And of course the wrong geopolitical headline could turn market sentiment on a dime, particularly if the Ukraine crisis escalates to the point where Russia and NATO might butt heads. There is a low probability of an outcome that extreme, but at some point markets will find a trigger for shifting into a new phase, either reversing on the weight of too much negative sentiment or undergoing a revival of animal spirits that accelerates the recovery.

The Corporate Pendulum Swings

As traders return from summer vacation, key corporate news may shape the markets. In addition to earnings season in October, two highly anticipated corporate events in September may mark the decline of one tech giant and the ascendancy of another. The first is Apple's likely entry into the mobile payments space and the wearable device market on September 9th. Wearables would be the first new category Apple has entered that goes beyond the roadmap laid out by Steve Jobs and the scope of its success could set a tone for the stock of the world's largest company. If Apple's wrist computer, featuring notifications and NFC technology, becomes another device that people "didn't know they needed" it would create a new consumer category, but if it ends up as just a niche product it could reignite the talk that Apple has lost its visionary edge.

Just days after the Apple event, Alibaba will launch its massive US IPO on the NYSE. China's dominant e-commerce company has its tendrils in every corner of online selling and boasts extremely high margins that put US counterparts eBay and Amazon to shame. With China rapidly moving to overtaking the US as the world's largest economy, the Alibaba IPO in New York may come to symbolize the ascendency of emerging markets to an equal footing with developed economies. Alibaba is at the vanguard of a flood of IPOs expected in weeks ahead, which could weigh on broader markets as traders rotate out of other positions to invest in the new issues.

Politics In Extremis

Of the many bloody conflicts of 2014, the Ukraine crisis has exerted the most influence over the markets. More tough talk about expanding the sanctions regime against Russia will be heard at the NATO summit in Wales in the first week of September. President Obama will be in attendance and will visit Estonia during the trip to reinforce the US commitment to the mutual defense organization and especially the Baltic states if Moscow turns its attention to them. President Putin's response to more NATO rhetoric is difficult to predict, but he appears intent on continuing the Ukraine conflict and may gain more leverage as winter approaches and Western Europe seeks to keep Russian gas flowing uninterrupted.

For his part, President Obama has the look of someone who is worn out by the succession of geopolitical crises he has faced, not to mention the obstructionist policies of his adversaries at home. This weariness may have contributed to his recent gaff about having "no strategy yet" for dealing with ISIS in Syria, a poor choice of words that Republicans will undoubtedly capitalize on as the election season heats up. By late October it may be clear whether the GOP will gain enough seats to take control of the Senate, which could bring the acrimony between the White House and Congress to a whole new level.

The biggest European ally of the US may get a taste of its own standoffishness about tighter bonds with its neighbors on September 18th, when Scotland holds its referendum on the question of independence from the United Kingdom. If a simple majority of the votes cast are in favor of independence, then Scotland would break from the UK after a process of negotiations with the government in London. The 'yes' vote has consistently polled below 50%, though there is always a chance that a late surge of Scottish nationalism will tip the vote in favor of independence. In that event, the UK economy and markets could be subject to significant gyrations as politicians decided how to handle the tricky issues of separation ranging from EU membership to currency to pensions.

Brazil goes to the polls for a general election on October 5th, though the next president will likely not be determined until the run-off three weeks later. The incumbent, Dilma Rousseff, has seen her popularity sag along with the economy, also hurt by fallout from the national soccer team's failure to win the World Cup after the country went to great expense to host the event. The anti-Rousseff vote seems to be growing, with her challenger from the other major leftist party, Marina Silva, pulling ahead in polls. Market watchers would prefer a win by the right-leaning PSDB candidate, Aecio Neves, but he is now polling in third place, and PSDB members are indicating they would throw their support behind Silva in a run-off election against Rousseff.

Dove and Dover

The economic recovery of the last five years has been built, with varying degrees of success, on a cushion of central bank largess. Despite all the stimulus that has already been put in place more may be on the way in Europe and Asia, even as the Fed and Bank of England are starting to draw up plans for an exit strategy from accommodation.

The ECB appears to be moving ever closer to launching its own form of quantitative to boost credit availability and avert a Japan-style deflation spiral. Increasingly it is a question not of if but when, as ECB chief Draghi recently noted the bank has made significant progress in laying the technical groundwork for an ABS purchase program. Mr. Draghi has never been one to rush into a new program, however, and it seems he would prefer to wait to see the impact of the targeted LTRO program and have the bank asset quality review (AQR) squared away before tackling QE. That would mean further action would come only after October.

Since announcing new TLTROs in June, the ECB has been jawboning the market, which has worked to some extent on the back of US Fed providing so much liquidity. But with the Fed ending its QE program in October and starting to consider normalization of policy, it may force the ECB to move up its timetable for action on its own asset purchase program. Many ECB watchers may now be disappointed if the central bank does not announce more policy action at the September 4th policy meeting.

Draghi may feel enough pressure from declining confidence data and monthly CPI readings creeping ever closer to zero to take a half measure at the September meeting. This could involve another small 10 basis point cut in the deposit rate (to negative 0.20%) or the launch of the ABS buying program, rather than outright purchases of government bonds. The ECB may have continued reservations about a full QE program because legal considerations raised by the German Constitutional Court could limit the ability of a European QE program to "shock and awe" markets the way the Fed did. Draghi may split the difference by outlining a QE program in September and making it operational later this year.

After the Fed's QE program is completely tapered out, the next question will be when rates will start to rise from near zero. In her inaugural FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Yellen ad-libbed that the first rate hike may come about six months after QE ends. She has since withdrawn that gaff and hammered home the point that rate moves will be tied to data, not the calendar. With employment data showing steady improvement and inflation still below target, market expectations of a mid-2015 rate lift off appear to be reasonable. In the months ahead, the Chair will likely focus on the themes of data-dependence and rates staying below historical norms for longer than in the past.

The Bank of England is even further along the path toward policy normalization than the US, as UK economic indicators are solid and the real estate market remains hot. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike at the August meeting, the first such dissent since 2011, though rates are not expected to move just yet. Wage growth remains subpar, inflation has been coming in weaker than expected, and growth has cooled off a bit, leaving the BOE some room to wait before tightening, especially with the Scottish referendum hovering in the background.

More accommodation could be in the offing in Asia. A surprise slowdown in China manufacturing data in the first half of August has prompted fresh speculation about additional policy stimulus from Beijing. August manufacturing PMIs showed slippage, taking them dangerously close to contraction. In the wake of this data, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned that the economy is faced with strong downward pressure, leading to some predictions that Beijing will have to do more than the sporadic 'mini-stimulus' packages it has provided this year. A Barclay's analyst suggested that this PMI slump could result in as many as two interest rate cuts by the PBoC before the end of 2014. That would be the first easing since mid-2012, the last time the central bank used rate policy to address a perceived slowdown in rate of economic growth.

Japan may also need a new round of stimulus after a run of tepid economic data in the wake of a controversial sales tax increase. Top government economic advisors have said that if Q3 GDP data (due out early November) come in weaker than expected it would warrant a delay in the second stage of the tax increase that is slated to take effect next spring. Reports also indicate that the government wants to set aside one trillion yen in funds from the 2015 budget to build a stimulus fund to support small business, presumably to help soften any further blow to the economy if PM Abe decides to proceed with a second consumption tax increase. As the momentum of the world's third largest economy wanes, expectations have grown that the Bank of Japan could cut its growth forecast for the fourth time this year at its October policy setting meeting, which could poise the BOJ for more loosening of monetary policy.

The Outer Limits

Markets have seen some new extremes in recent months, and there is a sense that eventually something has got to give. The S&P500 and DJIA have visited new all-time highs, and most analysts believe the indices are not over-extended yet. Meanwhile treasury yields remain very low, not yet anticipating Fed tightening, while European government bonds are largely at record lows ahead of the ECB taking out the bazooka again.

In the currency market, the greenback which rallied against the yen last year, has recently reversed its weakness against the euro as well, coming off of three-year lows. Some bold analysts are now forecasting that Draghi fulfilling his pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the common currency will, within a few years, take the dollar/euro to parity, a condition not seen since 2002, the year euro notes and coins first went into circulation.

September is historically the worst month for stocks, though out of the last ten a majority of Septembers have shown solid performance. October is hung with the moniker of the month of crashes, but in recent years the "October surprise"-type events have developed early in the year (e.g. Fukushima, Arab Spring, Ukraine crisis). That does not rule out a 'black swan' this autumn, or a cluster of market events coalescing into a sentiment changing moment.

The obvious jarring events to watch for are Russia declaring an open war in Ukraine or a major terrorist attack (brought into focus by Britain raising its terror alert level in late August). The fallout from stronger sanctions against Russia could hurt Europe enough to push it back into a mild recession (already seen in Italy). At the opposite extreme, peace could suddenly break out in Ukraine, lifting the weight of the Russian menace off of the market outlook.

Markets reaching new extremes could also tip sentiment. Stocks may soon stretch multiples too far if Q3 results disappoint. Meanwhile, continued dollar strengthening could exert more downward pressure on oil prices, which would in turn put pressure on the energy sector, creating another drag on the broader equity market.

US treasury yields are eventually expected to rise in anticipation of the Fed starting the long process of normalization, but many questions arise from this notion: will the bond vigilantes emerge from hibernation and force the Fed to act faster? How will higher UST yields influence other markets, particularly European bonds that are in many cases at historic lows, with the peculiar condition of EU peripheral debt often yielding less than USTs?

In the meantime, markets may keep pushing out to new extremes. Historically, markets typically don't start pulling back until a few months ahead of rate tightening, so the risk-on environment may have another six months or more to run before reaching that catalytic moment.



CALENDAR (based on Eastern Time Zone)
SEPTEMBER
1: Various EU Manufacturing PMI readings
2: UK Construction PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Services PMI; EU Retail Sales; US Factory Orders; BOJ Policy Statement
4: BOE Policy Statement; ECB Policy Statement; US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; NATO Summit in Wales (Sept 4-5)
5: US Payrolls and Unemployment

7: Japan Final Q2 GDP
8: China Trade Balance; German Trade Balance; BOJ Minutes
9: UK Manufacturing Production
10: China CPI and PPI
11:
12: EU Industrial Production; US Retail Sales; Preliminary UofM Consumer Confidence
13: China Industrial Production

15: US Industrial Production
16: UK CPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI
17: BOE Minutes; UK Unemployment; US CPI; FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference
18: UK Scottish Independence Vote; UK Retail Sales; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Philly Fed Index; Japan Trade Balance
19:

22: US Existing Home Sales
23:
24: US New Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
25: Various EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings; German Ifo Business Climate; US Durable Goods Orders
26: US Final Q2 GDP

29: US Pending Home Sales; Japan Tokyo CPI; Japan Retail Sales; Japan Industrial Production
30: German Retail Sales; UK Final Q2 GDP; EU Flash CPI Estimate; EU Unemployment; US Consumer Confidence; China Manufacturing PMI

OCTOBER
1 (Wed): Various EU Manufacturing PMI readings; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; ECB Policy Statement; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Services PMI ; EU Retail Sales; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

5: Brazil general elections
6: German Factory Order
7:
8: China Trade Balance (tentative); FOMC Minutes; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
9: German Trade Balance; UK Trade Balance; BOE Policy Statement; BOJ Minutes
10: UK Manufacturing Production

13: UK Unemployment
14: UK CPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; China CPI and PPI
15: US Retail Sales; US PPI
16: EU Final CPI; Philly Fed Index
17: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; ECB Bank Stress Test Results (tentative)

20: UK Retail Sales; Japan Trade Balance; China Q3 GDP; China Industrial Production
21: US Existing Home Sales
22: BOE Minutes; UK Prelim Q3 GDP; US CPI; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing
23: Various EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings
24: US New Home Sales

26: Brazil Presidential run-off election
27: German Ifo Business Climate; US Pending Home Sales; Japan Retail Sales
28: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; Japan Tokyo CPI
29: German CPI; FOMC Policy Statement (final taper)
30: German Retail Sales; US Advance Q3 GDP
31: EU Flash CPI Estimate; EU Unemployment; China Manufacturing PMI

TradeTheNews

Sept 03 2014

Trading becomes easier by day. Many nice trades, ranging from 1:3 to scalps, easily overwhelming stops. Most good ones on a short side although some longs were nice too.

Session Time: Wed Sep 03 00:00:00 2014
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:13] {@Threei}  roulette of headlines
01[09:13] {@Threei}  ageed on ceasefire - didn't agree - spoke about it - didn't speak - discussed first steps
[09:18] {RonS} howdy y'all
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:19] {troub} good morning
[09:19] {RonS} such a putz:  Obama: 'We will not accept Russia's occupation and illegal annexation of Crimea, or any part of Ukraine'
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  so they won't... find me anyone in Russia who cares {G}
[09:22] {RonS} New Canada oil pipeline already turning into Keystone 2.0: http://bloom.bg/1lFyqXb
01[09:24] {@Threei}  fight is relentless
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -INFI +37% (forms strategic partnership with ABBV for Duvelisib)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ISNS +34% (momentum)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CNQR +8.3% (reportedly considering sale of the company & has reached out to potential buyers)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FDML +5.5% (separating powertrain & motorparts divisions into 2 separate public companies)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MBLY +5% (positive comments from MS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FLEX +5% (receives approval for additional share repurchases of up to 20% outstanding)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -END -38% (decides not to make interest payments)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GWRE -6.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -VNCE -4.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DAL -4.5% (traffic, CFO comments at Cowen conference)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EFC -4.5% (prices 8M common shares at $23.92/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CDW -3.1% (files 15M common stock shelf for selling holders)
[09:29] {dino} dal gap fill
[09:29] {dino} same w/gwre
[09:29] {RonS} traffic report at conference...
[09:29] {dino} and russ
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {nemo} bottomed at yesterday's high
01[09:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:42] {dino} gwre sm s .50 bs hod
01[09:44] {@Threei}  FB short gave 1:3
01[09:44] {@Threei}  too bad it didn't give a chance to enter
[09:46] {nemo} TWTR
01[09:48] {@Threei}  meh VXX
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .05 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:50] {nemo} spy iwm having trouble with vwap
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {dino} gap and sit so far
[09:53] {nemo} coming in now
[09:55] {nemo} Draghi in the morning
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  28 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:56] {@Threei}  let's see if we can get real breakdown
[09:58] {dino} mbly
01[09:58] {@Threei}  Cramer mention
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (RU) European Union issues formal statement on additional sanctions on Russia, approves additional sanctions; as expected
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY FACTORY ORDERS: 10.5% V 11.0%E
[10:02] {dino} added mbly puts
01[10:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .80 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {nemo} too quick
[10:05] {dino} gwre stop -.35
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:10] {@Threei}  out
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .45 break
01[10:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:25] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:27] {@Threei}  TWTR, quite a selloff
01[10:27] {@Threei}  gotta start sticking with shorts longer
01[10:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:35] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:35] {dino} kors sm l .12
01[10:39] {@Threei}  closd last part on a trail
[10:45] {RonS} the guy is dangerous:  President Obama days he wants to reduce ISIS to a "manageable problem." Somewhere, David Cameron and our allies are shaking their heads.
01[10:45] {@Threei}  sigh
[10:45] {nemo} mmmhhhh....I was thinking more along the lines of a grease spot
01[10:46] {@Threei}  meanwhile, there is a rift within ISIS about whether USA is manageable problem
[10:46] {RonS} lol
01[10:47] {@Threei}  what a disaster the whole foreign policy is
[10:47] {RonS} what truly perlexes me is how US jews can be democrats...just cannot understand it...
[10:47] {nemo} they started the NAACP
[10:47] {RonS} so what?
[10:48] {nemo} they have a history of working against their interests
[10:48] {dino} i understand you ron, makes no sense they are dmocrats
01[10:48] {@Threei}  mystery to me too
[10:49] {nemo} so...they're the chosen people?
[10:49] {nemo} damn, late on sndk
[10:49] {dino} mbly holding better than expected, may have to stomp it
[10:50] {RonS} the 3i approach?
[10:50] {dino} indeed
06[10:51] * @Threei hands dino 2x4
[10:51] {dino} ty
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  50 break
01[10:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:59] {@Threei}  (duh)
01[11:02] {@Threei}  Teachers might vote on whether to continue strike, union said
[11:03] {dino} there are plenty of new college teacher grads looking for jobs...
01[11:04] {@Threei}  fire them all
01[11:04] {@Threei}  (while ese can't hear me)
01[11:06] {@Threei}  beaituful... their banner says: "give us what we need so every child could succeed"
[11:10] {RonS} thinkin they didn't want to be sued...so used "could" instead of "can"...or...had ese phrase it...
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
[11:15] {dino} lol
[11:15] {dino} kors stop -.32
[11:17] {RonS} tom petty moment...
[11:23] {RonS} Most absurd comment yet- President Obama: We Must Organize the Arab World
[11:24] {RonS} wth...thought he was the community organizer...
01[11:24] {@Threei}  Arab World: oh, we can't wait to be organized by you
01[11:25] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .80 break
01[11:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:39] {dino} rprx drop
01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:41] {@Threei}  shorts relly work nicely
[11:42] {dino} rprx smr l .00
01[11:44] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:44] {@Threei}  closed
[11:47] {RonS} good one 3i, thanks
01[11:47] {@Threei}  :)
[12:18] {dino} gj
01[12:20] {@Threei}  ty
[12:22] {RonS} clf
01[12:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[12:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:31] {dino} out mbly calls from earlier, +.60/+17%
01[12:33] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:33] {dino} ty
[12:45] {dino} may be a mistake, but leaving rprx on with 19.60 sale order. have to hop, golf match in 45 min
01[13:10] {@Threei}  FRANCE SUSPENDS DELIVERY OF WARSHIP TO RUSSIA
01[13:10] {@Threei}  wow
01[13:10] {@Threei}  they resisted it ever since Crimea
01[13:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .90 break
01[13:30] {@Threei}  If holds  117
[13:40] {nemo} i shorted .94
01[13:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:42] {@Threei}  I can feel it in my bones... trading becomes easier and easier by day
[13:43] {nemo} so doesn't senility
[13:43] {nemo} but yeah, things traded cleanly yesterday
01[13:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:00] {@Threei}  beige book
01[14:01] {@Threei}  (US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDED IN ALL REGIONS; WAGE PRESSURES ARE REPORTED IN SECTORS WITH SKILL SHORTAGES Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded since the previous Beige Book report; however, none of the Districts pointed to a distinct shift in the overall pace of growth.
01[14:24] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Min Oliver: not seeing any bubble in housing market
[14:48] {nemo} pretty low spy volume Draghi effect
01[14:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .35 break
01[14:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[15:02] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .40 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:46] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:47] {@Threei}  stop .41
01[15:49] {@Threei}  closed
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:49] {nemo} The floor on IWM and SPY are the Weekly Pivots
01[15:49] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Sept 2 2014

First decent win of September. Notice btw how IWM is outperforming SPY. Tells you something?

Chart's courtesy of the brokerage

A few decent ones, a few stops - not much to write home about yet but volume seems to be picking up. 

Session Time: Tue Sep 02 00:00:00 2014
[08:52] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:52] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[08:59] {@Threei}  Russia Foreign Policy aide Ushakov stated that Putin comment that Russia could 'take Kiev in 2 weeks' to EU's Barosso was taken out of context. The aide also reiterated the official view of no Russian troops inside Ukraine
01[09:03] {@Threei}  Associated Press: Russian forces in major rebel cities
[09:05] {cosmo} Why such confusion about that?
01[09:05] {@Threei}  confusion?
01[09:06] {@Threei}  simply reyssian denial of the obvious
01[09:06] {@Threei}  russian
[09:07] {cosmo} do they have forces over the border or not as a lingering question is odd...
01[09:07] {@Threei}  they do but they don't admit it
[09:08] {cosmo} should be obvious one way or another in short order I'd think
01[09:08] {@Threei}  it's obvious
01[09:08] {@Threei}  they simply deny it
01[09:09] {@Threei}  just as they denied their forces in Crimea
[09:10] {cosmo} I know we have mexican forces already in So Cal...
[09:10] {dino} ukraine has captured some russian forces
01[09:10] {@Threei}  yeah, and they said "they simply lost their way and entered Ukraine by mistake"
[09:12] {cosmo} Actually they're mostly in southern Arizona...
[09:17] {cosmo} prec metels not happy
01[09:17] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -CPWR +14% (reported to be in advanced talks with unnamed private equity group)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -NCLH +15% (confirms agreement to acquire Prestige Cruises Int'l for $3.03B in cash and stock)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -EFUT +22% (C&U Group switches to eFuture omni-channel solution)
[09:17] {cosmo} silver will be cheap enough for bullets soon...
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DGLY +17% (continued momentum
01[09:18] {@Threei}  that's when we will get all the werewolves
[09:18] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -CONN -28% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EXEL -53% (Cowen cuts to Market Perform from Outperform)
[09:18] {RonS} ditto
01[09:19] {@Threei}  rob :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  b=n
01[09:19] {@Threei}  sorry
01[09:21] {@Threei}  poor EXEL
[09:22] {dino} drug failed
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  75 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:35] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .15 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.9 V 58.0E
[09:45] {ese} gm
01[09:45] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:46] {@Threei}  market bounce time
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:49] {@Threei}  CAT stop to .09
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:50] {ese} nice iwm call vad
01[09:50] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:50] {@Threei}  meh CAT
01[09:52] {@Threei}  will try for 1:4
[09:53] {dino} out feye calls from 8/19 +1.80/+50%
01[09:53] {@Threei}  nice
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:3  IWM
[09:53] {dino} ty
01[09:55] {@Threei}  noticing how once again IWM is stronger than SPY?
[09:56] {nemo} yeah, they have to get iwm to new all time highs
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:59] {@Threei}  over and out
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 1.8% V 1.0%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) SEPT IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.2 V 45.5E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING: 59.0 V 57.0E; PRICES PAID: 58.0 V 58.5E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:5
[10:05] {ese} L acad .51
[10:06] {ese} 06:00 [ACAD] Receives FDA breakthrough therapy designation for NUPLAZID (Pimavanserin) for Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to NUPLAZID more... - Source TradeTheNews.com
[10:07] {ese} ½ .65 +.14
[10:08] {ese} stop to break even .51
[10:09] {ese} out full .84 +.33
01[10:09] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:09] {ese} tks
[10:09] {troub} well done ese                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
[10:09] {dino} geva drop
[10:12] {nemo} LVS
[10:20] {ese} L sm nclh .08
[10:24] {ese} ½ .21 +.13
[10:26] {dino} gj
01[10:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:39] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[10:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:43] {ese} out full .40 nclh +.32
01[10:43] {@Threei}  nice
01[10:43] {@Threei}  you are in good shaoe for september ese
01[10:43] {@Threei}  shape
[10:45] {ese} need to....still on strike ...big rally in front of the legislature this morning at 9am....
[10:45] {ese} am outta here in 20min
[10:45] {ese} bid you all good bye cya tomorrow
[10:48] {RonS} lol...if ese came here and traded he could have paid for the whole raise they are asking for...
01[10:48] {@Threei}  that's a matter fo social fairness, you see :)
[10:49] {dino} so true
01[10:49] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:50] {@Threei}  folks with the best salaries and benefit package are on strike because they haven't got any raise in last X years
[10:51] {nemo} it's all about the kids
01[10:51] {@Threei}  annual salary equals annual income of average household in the province
[10:51] {RonS} bet the bennies are 65% of the salary...
[10:52] {RonS} not to mention the freakin time off...
[10:58] {dino} athm sm l .75
01[10:59] {@Threei}  rinse
[11:03] {RonS} lol...  Will It Be September or Sep-timber
01[11:09] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[11:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:14] {@Threei}  come on already FB
01[11:14] {@Threei}  trigger and die
[11:24] {dino} out athm .45 ave, +.70
[11:26] {troub} great Dino
01[11:26] {@Threei}  wtg'
[11:27] {dino} ty
[11:27] {troub} tried to follow you but ran stop too tight.
[11:28] {dino} was down 12+ pts in 5 days, saw supp, so hit it
[11:28] {dino} got out too soon, but added calls w/common purchase
[11:29] {dino} gwph drop. pulp
[11:30] {dino} 80 has been strong supp
[11:31] {dino} showing gap around 77
[11:31] {dino} then 68
[11:37] {dino} out athm calls from earlier, +1.10/+25%
[11:37] {nemo} why don't you go play golf or something
[11:37] {nemo} play in traffic
[11:37] {nemo} diffuse some bombs
[11:37] {nemo} see how much voltage your body can handle
[11:37] {dino} :), lol
[11:38] {dino} that sob shot straight up
[11:38] {dino} look at that daily
01[11:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[12:09] {dino} dsky spike
01[12:14] {@Threei}  let's trail VXX to .29
01[12:14] {@Threei}  no clarity in charts
[12:17] {nemo} indexes should come in a tad here
[12:17] {nemo} if not, look for vwap run
01[12:38] {@Threei}  grrr
01[12:45] {@Threei}  frikin VXX
01[12:56] {@Threei}  - NYSE volume 218M shares, about 2% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 765M shares, about 4% above its three-month average
01[12:57] {@Threei}  volume starts picking up it seems
01[13:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .80 break
01[13:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[13:03] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[13:04] {@Threei}  If holds  51
[13:04] {dino} 07 red
01[13:12] {@Threei}  Justin Bieber faces assault, dangerous driving charges in Ontario
01[13:12] {@Threei}  Charges result after collision involving minivan and ATV on Friday
01[13:13] {@Threei}  maybe we still have a chance to reign this horrible creature?
[13:14] {RonS} lol...oil slipping, Brit sterling pounded...
01[13:22] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=4440241301975
01[13:23] {@Threei}  let's cover half TWTR
01[13:23] {@Threei}  .83
01[13:25] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:38] {nemo} I wouldn't expect them to let spy close under 200 today
[13:41] {RonS} hd hit on data breach
01[13:42] {@Threei}  [HD] Reportedly experienced an online security breach - Krebs Multiple banks say they are seeing evidence that Home Depot stores may be the source a massive new batch of stolen credit and debit cards that went on sale this morning in the cybercrime underground. Home Depot says that it is working with banks and law enforcement agencies to investigate reports of suspicious activity...There are signs that the perpetrators of this apparent breach may be the same group of Russian and Ukrainian hackers responsible for the data breaches at Target, Sally Beauty and P.F. Changs, among others.
01[13:45] {@Threei}  1/4 more TWTR
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:46] {@Threei}  some things start working
01[14:18] {@Threei}  second journalist beheading by ISIS
[14:20] {nemo} adrenalin junkies
[14:21] {nemo} russians have the best solution for that stuff
[14:25] {nemo} Hey Dino you'll like this headline:  Tom Brady on How Long He'll Play Football: 'When I Suck, I'll Retire'
[14:29] {nemo} one could make an argument for fas short here stop above the high
[14:30] {nemo} nope spy going for vwap
01[14:30] {@Threei}  yeah
[14:30] {nemo} IWM gonna' test high of day
01[14:30] {@Threei}  not looking like short yet
[14:31] {dino} lol
[14:32] {dino} when he sucks, the jets will sign him
[14:33] {nemo} I don't think he'll ever play for the jets
[14:34] {RonS} unless giselle divorces him for a bunchen...
[14:34] {nemo} she's worth a helluva lot more than he is
[14:34] {nemo} short now brown cow?
[14:34] {nemo} wtf
[14:35] {nemo} summer trading cooked my brain
[14:36] {nemo} too much pressure sitting on it too
[14:38] {nemo} funny Ron, she spells it the German way, but pronounces it the French way
[14:38] {nemo} Gisele  is with a hard "G" like Gizele...Giselle is soft like "J"  jisselle
[14:51] {dino} adding sndk calls
[14:51] {dino} hclp interesting
[15:13] {nemo} FB
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .95 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:28] {@Threei}  ohmygodohmygodohmygod... teachers published the data about their poverty. They have had zero wage increase in 6 of the last 14 years
[15:28] {nemo} so in other words, they've had raises 8 of the last 14..wtf
01[15:29] {@Threei}  they put it online in all seriousness as an argument
[15:29] {nemo} they should all be shot
01[15:29] {@Threei}  I change my mind right away under the weight of this evidence
01[15:29] {@Threei}  https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/l/t1.0-9/1620790_10152313237811860_4599977049428830106_n.jpg?oh=086eef61c297f810e3dcb8e35b4bc30a&oe=545E7EC8
01[15:14] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:32] {cosmo} hmm, minister...I could do that...
01[15:33] {@Threei}  absolutely
01[15:33] {@Threei}  deputy too
01[15:35] {@Threei}  just a scalp, TWTR... hoped for more
[15:35] {cosmo} ministers of funds maybe
01[15:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[15:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[15:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:48] {@Threei}  and no time for another one
[15:48] {nemo} bull market no fear
01[15:48] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:48] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:01] {dino} gn

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Europe Overshadows S&P 2000

- US stocks began the week on another strong note aided by sentiment out of Europe. The S&P crossed 2000 for the first time ever during Monday's session. Weekend analysis of Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole speech suggested the ECB may be even closer to enacting more stimulus measures. In that speech he noted that market based inflation expectations fell strongly in August, which opened the door to speculation the ECB was ready to act perhaps as early as next week's meeting. European government bond yields plunged to fresh record lows on hopes a healthy dose of QE is just around the corner. Only solidifying those expectations was more tepid economic data from Germany, leaving many to wonder if the Russian sanctions have caused Europe's growth engine to stall. August European CPI readings showed some stabilization at what are already low levels while readings in Belgium and Spain indicated acceleration to the downside. The 10-year Bund yield dropped below 0.90% to a new lifetime low. By Thursday the EONIA fix settled in negative territory for the first time. Despite what was a generally a rosy picture painted by the US data, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.32% which was only a few basis points from fresh lows for the year. For the week, the S&P500 gained 0.7%, the DJIA added 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%.

- Geopolitics, the Ukraine specifically, took center stage once again especially through the back half of the week. Safe haven flows were seen exacerbating the move lower in bond yields and serving as a headwind to stocks. Any goodwill that was exhibited in the handshake between Presidents Putin and Poroshenko on Tuesday quickly dissipated by Wednesday when reports began surfacing that Russian regular army troops were on the ground in parts of Southern Ukraine helping separatist fighters. Poroshenko confirmed as much in a press conference on Thursday noting the situation on the ground had changed significantly. Talks of another round of sanctions started to brew and rising tensions could be seen in the rhetoric from Western officials that followed, demanding that Russia cease its military "incursions." The Russian Ruble fell to a new all-time low against the dollar, past 37. The last time it traded near this level was when Russia seized Crimea this past spring. Separately, Friday the UK raised its terrorist threat level on concerns about hundreds of British citizens fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria could return home intent on wreaking havoc.

- The headlines coming out of Europe largely overshadowed the bulk of the US economic data which showed the rebound in US economic activity is picking up. At 4.2%, Q2 annualized GDP beat consensus expectations by 0.3%. The elevated inventory levels seen in the advance GDP reading last month were revised down less than many analysts had expected, but other parts of the data were more positive for growth going forward. Investment spending was revised up more than expected, due in part to new Q2 data on research and development spending. Also an upward revision to business investment helped boost the Q2 growth rate of domestic demand (real final sales to domestic purchasers) from 2.8% in the advance report to 3.1%. The August Chicago PMI came in well above consensus, reaching levels seen back in May on good growth in new orders. The Conference Board's August US consumer confidence touched the highest level since before the financial crisis, though some view it as a contrarian indicator. Housing remains a sore spot, and the existing home sales report posted a surprise decline m/m making it appear homebuilders may have been a bit too aggressive in raising prices, but the July pending home sales index still painted a constructive picture overall.

The US lending markets appear to be gaining momentum as it works through the scar tissue left from the financial crisis. The latest quarterly checkup from the FDIC revealed in the second quarter banks posted the strongest loan growth since 2007. Net interest income increased nearly 2% y/y which was the fastest pace in more than a year while overall earnings rose 5%. Equifax's National Consumer Credit Trends Report showed that year to date the total amount of new non-mortgage, non-student loan credit originated has grown 11% reaching a 6-year high of $365B. Coincidently cashing in on these improving trends, LendingClub, the world's largest marketplace connecting borrowers and investors filed its long awaited IPO looking to raise $500M.

- The tail end of Q2 earnings season is coming to a close, and it can't be over fast enough for many of the specialty teen retailers, while high end consumers continue to spend. Guess, Abercrombie, Tilly's, Gordmans and Genesco gapped lower after missing expectations and lowering their outlooks. Tiffany's quarterly results topped analyst expectations on robust margin improvement and strong Asia/US SSS, and it also raised FY15 eps targets. In Europe, Hermes and Ferragamo saw results beat expectations sending their stocks higher. Best Buy initially moved down after reporting better than expected earnings on improving profitability in the second quarter. Unfortunately revenues were short of analyst expectations while SSS decline 2% on weakness in consumer electronics, mobile phones in particular. Shares rebounded by the end of the week after many defended the name and also in anticipation of next month's iPhone 6 launch.

- Roche made an all cash play for Intermune at $74/share, 60% above where it was trading when the latest round of takeover speculation broke out in late July. The $8B deal will help Roche expand into the treatment of rare or incurable diseases. On Tuesday Burger King Worldwide Inc. confirmed it had struck a deal to buy Canadian donut chain Tim Horton's Inc. for about $11 billion. Investors welcomed the deal after Warren Buffett got involved in financing the takeover. Berkshire Hathaway committed $3 billion of preferred equity financing and 3G Capital will own about 51% of the new company. Berkshire, which previously joined with 3G to buy H.J. Heinz & Co. in 2013, won't have any participation in the management and operation of the business.

- The USD consolidated its recent gains against the major currencies as it benefited from a divergent view emerging from the G3 central banks (US, ECB and BOJ) at the Jackson Hole symposium last weekend. Draghi's Jackson Hole commentary was viewed as dovish and left the door open for unconventional instruments including QE. The ECB currently appears to be in 'wait-and-see' mode ahead of the September launch of the TLTRO program and its potential impact but that could change with upcoming ECB staff projections. The EUR/USD gapped to an 11-month low below 1.3150 as European stock trading drew to a close on Friday. The EUR/CHF cross hit its lowest level since Jan 2013 (1.2050) sparking speculation on how the SNB will defend its currency floor.

- The Shanghai Composite fell for the first time in 7 weeks, shedding about 1% to close at 2,217. China industrial profits growth slowed to 13.5% from 17.9%, weighed down by the mining sector where profitability contracted 13.2%. The July Conference Board leading index matched an 8-month high, but resident economists noted "improvement was driven primarily by an increase in new floor space starts, which is unsustainable in the longer-term", adding that bank lending activity offered its weakest contribution since January 2012. Amid the rising speculation of greater probability of an easing sometime before the end of the year, the PBoC boosted its weekly liquidity injection to a net CNY45B from just CNY11B in the prior week.

- In Japan, the cabinet office maintained its economic assessment of "moderate recovery trend" intact, but warned about the possibility of prolonged impact from sales-tax related consumption decline and also cut its view of corporate profitability. The balance of July economic data remained largely mixed - the unemployment rate rose for the second consecutive month but the job-applicant ratio hit a 22-year high. Household spending contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and the leading Tokyo core CPI for August slowed to a 4-month low. USD/JPY hit a 7-month high near ¥104.30 early in the week after BOJ Governor Kuroda stated that the central bank might have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for "some time" to fully vanquish deflation. Late next week, BOJ will announce its policy decision, and PM Abe will unveil the details of cabinet reshuffle on September 3rd.

TradeTheNews

Aug 29 2014

VXX 1:3, nice opening trade to finish August

With couple more wins, happy to finish this month. Activity should start slowly picking up now.

Session Time: Fri Aug 29 00:00:00 2014
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:19] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -AVGI +4% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SPLK +6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -VEEV +11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -UEPS +16% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -OVTI +2% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -CRTO +16% (take out speculation)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -NXPI +3% (speculation technolgy used in upcoming iPhone)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TSLA +2% (reports of china expasion with China Unicom)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -RALY +8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -DGLY +8% (momentum)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -MBT -4% (downgrade)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -BIG -2.5% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  Putin says Russia to increase its nuclear, defense potential to feel safe
[09:37] {dino} obummer decreases nukes and putin ups them
01[09:37] {@Threei}  I start suspecting they have common goal
[09:37] {nemo} all you need are subs
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 64.3 V 56.5E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:49] {dino} cmcm drop
01[09:50] {@Threei}  will try for 1:4 on VXX
[09:50] {nemo} you should hold a piece if you can all day
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:55] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 82.5 V 80.0E
01[09:56] {@Threei}  UK PM Cameron: First time in 3 years threat level has been at Substantial - Root cause of threat is poisonous Islamist ideology
01[09:56] {@Threei}  you don't say
01[09:58] {@Threei}  closed last piece
[10:04] {dino} cmcm hl l .31 stop lod break
01[10:09] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .75 break
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:10] {nemo} see vxx
[10:11] {nemo} s lvs .65
01[10:11] {@Threei}  stop to .81
[10:12] {nemo} stop .62
[10:13] {nemo} 1:1
[10:14] {nemo} sheesh
[10:19] {dino} uthr spike
[10:19] {nemo} why?
[10:23] {dino} uthr sm s .76
[10:27] {dino} uthr all over the place. uthr=pulp
[10:27] {dino} added kndi calls
01[10:27] {@Threei}  UTHR Strength attributed to chatter of a favorable ruling in a court case
[10:28] {dino} cmcm stuck in puddle of mud
[10:28] {RonS} kndi secondary direct placement at 17.10
[10:28] {dino} ty ron, saw that, bought time
[10:31] {dino} uthr stopped
[10:34] {RonS} If a JV player puts on a suit & tie and rides around in Air Force One, it doesn't mean he's Ronald Reagan.
01[10:35] {@Threei}  lol
[10:36] {dino} uthr smr s .98
[10:37] {dino} damn, gappy moves
[10:37] {dino} i'm too slow today
01[10:38] {@Threei}  market was slow whole august, so that's your revenge to it
[10:39] {dino} lol, but doesmn't help the wallet
[10:39] {dino} last try smr s uthr 104.53
[10:40] {dino} f#ck, done w/it
[10:41] {dino} smr s .63
[10:42] {RonS} cab drop
01[10:47] {@Threei}  https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10620797_10152697316978552_321324113957999107_n.jpg?oh=6fe182d6375270e62a1f629faf57f6b1&oe=545B8BCE&__gda__=1415737669_b107521ee73c40b26e02e3edb0323f28
01[10:47] {@Threei}  [UTHR] Loses bid to block generics of Remodulin until 2029 - financial press **NOTE: UTHR has been in lititgation with Novartis' Sandoz over generic Remodulin
01[10:48] {@Threei}  (RU) Russian Defense minister's flight is blocked by Poland- Plane has landed in Bratislavia
[10:48] {dino} finally, cov uthr 103.60, +3.03
01[10:48] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:49] {dino} after asll of those stops, i'm up about 200
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ramp-up of hostilies is unbelieavable
[10:49] {dino} and markets don't care so far
[10:50] {dino} this holiday weekend may be out of control
01[10:51] {@Threei}  Ukraine pushes for NATO membership
01[10:51] {@Threei}  and current NATO commander would be happy to take them in, if that was his decision
[10:53] {dino} seems poland only country willing to help ukraine so far
[10:53] {nemo} is that help?
[10:54] {dino} nato needs to let them in. them smack putin hard
[10:54] {dino} and the lesson in all of this, never give up your nukes
01[10:55] {@Threei}  Poland can identify
01[10:55] {@Threei}  Russia did the same thing to them in 80s
01[10:56] {@Threei}  secret invasion
01[11:06] {@Threei}  US traders largely unwilling to commit ahead of holiday break
01[11:07] {@Threei}  Geopolitical developments continue to weigh on peoples' minds. Ukraine remains a sore spot as it appears we are headed toward another round of sanctions. European leaders are meeting at summit tomorrow and NATO convenes next week.
[11:11] {dino} wow uthr
[11:13] {RonS} uthr...what happens with 5 mil sh short
[11:15] {dino} pain
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:21] {dino} wtf, that must e some drug, uthr +28%
[11:25] {RonS} unreal:  http://pamelageller.com/2014/08/louisiana-gov-jindal-sues-federal-government-common-core.html/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
[11:27] {RonS} lol...  Now that Chelsea Clinton's resigned, there's an opening at NBC News for the position of not doing shit for $50k a month.
01[11:27] {@Threei}  can I take it part tme?
01[11:27] {@Threei}  and remotely?
[11:28] {dino} roflol ron
[11:28] {RonS} really pathetic:  No strategy for ISIS yet, but 3 fundraisers and an MSNBC host's wedding to attend tomorrow.
[11:29] {RonS} ISIS Threatens America: "We Will Raise The Flag Of Allah In The White House" (I suspect Barry already has one)
01[11:29] {@Threei}  busy busy busy
[11:30] {dino} vsm s uthr .96
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:31] {dino} i've said it before and i'll say it again, religion is ruining the world
01[11:33] {@Threei}  and each of them agrees, with one correction: "THEIR religion is ruining the world"
[11:33] {dino} my god is better than your god bullshit
01[11:34] {@Threei}  yup
[11:36] {RonS} http://washingtonexaminer.com/in-just-6-months-37477-illegal-immigrant-kids-released-only-280-deported/article/2552618
01[11:40] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[11:40] {@Threei}  I swear if I see one more person enter this WalMart wearing pajamas, I am going to take the belt off my bathrobe and choke them with it
[11:42] {RonS} Polish PM Tusk wants to become the EU president and get tough on Russia: http://bloom.bg/1qJzAAE
[11:42] {dino} awesome
01[11:42] {@Threei}  Putin: OK, move Poland up on the list, Belarus and Kazakhstan can wait
[11:43] {RonS}  "Life is tough, life is tougher when you're stupid" John Wayne
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Ukraine said on Aug. 29 it would seek the protection of NATO membership after what Kyiv and its Western allies say is the open participation of the Russian military in the war in Ukraine's eastern provinces.
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Ukraine's ambassador to Canada begs for troops to counter Russian invasion
01[11:43] {@Threei}  headlines start getting hysterical
01[11:44] {@Threei}  and scroll as if it's not August
[11:44] {RonS} pass the koolaid:  Democrats are more afraid of global warming than the threat posed by the Islamic State terrorists, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.
01[11:45] {@Threei}  mental disease of some kind...
[11:45] {dino} govt run by idiots
01[11:45] {@Threei}  I say send them in Irq and see what they die of first, ISIS or heat
01[11:46] {@Threei}  now, this tops the stupid list:
01[11:46] {@Threei}  TV main source of info for most Russians on Ukraine events; over half believe it is unbiased
01[11:46] {@Threei}  right... TV run by state
01[11:46] {@Threei}  is unbiased on state's affairs
[11:56] {cosmo} I worry about resurging ice sheets... No one talks about it...hmm
[11:59] {dino} me too cosmo, been running about 10 degrees below normal here for a year+
[12:00] {cosmo} what does not melt becomes next years base...
[12:04] {cosmo} Too bad they shut down the Mt Saint Helens volcano/snow cam....it was a good indacator of this process.
01[12:07] {@Threei}  FB almost made 1:2
[12:10] {dino} uthr stop -.30
[12:36] {dino} crto drop
[12:37] {dino} smr l .78
[12:38] {dino} out crto .43, +.65
01[12:38] {@Threei}  nice
[12:38] {dino} ty
[13:16] {dino} calling it a week, enjoy the long weekend all
01[13:16] {@Threei}  puff
[13:17] {nemo} ?
01[13:17] {@Threei}  nevermind
[13:18] {RonS} ya outta here too...have a good one guys
01[13:19] {@Threei}  OK, closing FB
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1: 1.5
01[13:19] {@Threei}  have a great long weeked guys
01[13:19] {@Threei}  see you Tuesday

Aug 28 2014

Decent day with 5 calls 4 of which were winning. 

Session Time: Thu Aug 28 00:00:00 2014
[09:16] {dino} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TKMR +8.2% (rumor of 4+ big drug companies considering making bids for company)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TI +2.6% (makes cash and stock offer for Vivendi's Brazilian unit GVT worth €7B)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -LAS +13% (enters JV w/Bitauto and UXIN to launch O2O platform for high-end pre-owned cars in China)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -SCOK +13% (projects $10-15M gross profit from Syngas sales in 2015)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DGLY +17% (receives $1.1M order from state police of Michigan)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ETRM +15% (announces 3 year diabetes, hypertension and weight loss data from ENABLE study)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -RPRX +20% (Androxal achieves superiority in top-line analysis versus marketed topical gel for studies in treatment of secondary hypogonadism)
[09:18] {RonS} hello everyone
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GES -7.7% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -VMEM -4.5% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GMAN -5.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TLYS -9.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -WSM -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ANF -6.1% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -DXLG -1.1% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GCO -7.7% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -COTY -2.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -JCP -2.0% (BTIG cuts to Neutral from Buy on valuation)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:19] {nemo} gawd this is painful
[09:20] {RonS} Latest Ukraine fighting sees separatists gaining ground: http://bloom.bg/1sGMmyi
01[09:21] {@Threei}  only it's not separatists
01[09:21] {@Threei}  it's russian regular army
[09:21] {nemo} Spetznaz
01[09:21] {@Threei}  proxies are not good anymore
[09:21] {nemo} Chechens
[09:21] {nemo} Putin is a Kunach with Chechens now
[09:24] {RonS} ok, will bite...Kunach?
[09:26] {nemo} it's a "blood brother"
[09:26] {nemo} for lack of a better descriptino
[09:26] {nemo} description
01[09:26] {@Threei}  yeah, kind of spiritual brotherhood
[09:28] {nemo} it's a big deal actually...Muslim chechens and Russians.  There's a history of it actually, some amazing things have transpired as a result of such relationships
01[09:29] {@Threei}  FB... if copnsolidates for a min or two, range 74 - .10 will be tradeable
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  74 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .75 break
[09:42] {nemo} by @.60ish
[09:42] {nemo} buy
01[09:42] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:42] {nemo} drop below .65
01[09:43] {@Threei}  trail to .64
01[09:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  .69 now
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:2  TWTR
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:2  VXX
[09:49] {nemo} twtr a monster
[09:52] {dino} rh sm l .00
[09:58] {RonS} 2 columns of tanks from Russia have entered strategic Ukrainian town of Novoazovsk, security spokesman says - @AP http://www.breakingnews.com/t/NCb
[09:59] {dino} out rh .00, +1.00
[09:59] {RonS} gj
01[09:59] {@Threei}  nice
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 3.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -2.7% V -3.5%E
[10:00] {troub} excellent Dino
[10:00] {dino} they are going to give ukraine to russia
[10:00] {dino} ty
01[10:01] {@Threei}  Novoazovsk is a key city to Mariupol, and taking Mariupol means opening Azov sea coast for easy access to Ukraine from the whole coastal line
01[10:01] {@Threei}  that's the end of all this "rebels, separatists" nonsense
01[10:02] {@Threei}  it's open invasion and war
[10:08] {dino} added rh calls
[10:08] {dino} ageed 3i, and the western world is in denial
01[10:09] {@Threei}  it's not even that they don't get it, they do
01[10:09] {@Threei}  they just don't know what to do about it, and have zero appetite for real action
[10:09] {dino} they will not accept that its happening
[10:09] {dino} ostrich
01[10:09] {@Threei}  so they pretend they don't see it
[10:10] {troub} but the people of Poland welcome the Russians. Oops meant Ukraine.
[10:11] {dino} my niece was sent to poland with united tech last month, air defense
[10:12] {troub} Europe ignores 1939
01[10:16] {@Threei}  and history repeats
[10:17] {dino} 07 red scroll
[10:20] {RonS} UN: Armed group detains 43 peacekeepers in the Golan Heights; 81 others 'restricted to their positions' - @AP http://www.breakingnews.com/t/Dqd
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .15 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[10:22] {nemo} FB looks more short to me but no energy either way
[10:29] {ese} hey all.....just thought that i would pop in to say hi before walking the picket line........hope your havng a great week.....i'm getting pistol whipped by the sun
01[10:29] {@Threei}  hey ese
01[10:29] {@Threei}  should cool off today
[10:30] {ese} thank christ
[10:30] {nemo} oh jeez a christian communist
[10:31] {ese} lol
[10:31] {ese} i needed that
[10:31] {nemo} you'd look good on the cross
[10:31] {ese} casue this ain't fun
[10:31] {ese} cause
[10:31] {ese} naked?
[10:31] {nemo} nailed
[10:32] {ese} lol
[10:32] {nemo} you naked conjures images of Medusa
[10:32] {ese} would be alot less painfull full for sure
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:40] {ese} am outta here.....have a geat day.....don't forget vad.....The Midnights are playing Blues Bash 3:45 on Monday...
01[10:40] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:40] {@Threei}  have a good one ese
[10:40] {ese} cya
[10:42] {RonS} curious that ese seems ok with the strike ruining his summer...I would be PO'd...
[10:43] {nemo} he's picketing for the glory of the Proletariat
[10:43] {nemo} musicians are brain damaged by nature anyway
[10:43] {RonS} glory of the coddled...
01[10:43] {@Threei}  they actually skipped about a month and half of strike, preferring vacation
01[10:44] {@Threei}  now that the school is about to open, strike is back on, full force
01[10:44] {@Threei}  nice eh?
[10:44] {nemo} yeah, fuck the kids...that's when it has the most impact
01[10:44] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[10:45] {RonS} anyone polling public opinion over the strike?
01[10:48] {@Threei}  not that I've seen
01[10:49] {@Threei}  but I am sure goverment has its own internal polling which shows they win
01[10:49] {@Threei}  because they continue pushing
01[10:49] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine claims two columns of russian military vehicles have been destroyed
[10:50] {RonS} motorcycles?
01[10:50] {@Threei}  they wish
[10:51] {RonS} hey, the Japanese Army conquored the Malaysian Peninsula on bicycles...
[11:00] {RonS} gpro ramp
01[11:07] {@Threei}  market entered frozen stage
[11:09] {nemo} market doesn't care about Ukraine probably gap close
[11:11] {RonS} gpro recording its moonshot?
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
[11:11] {dino} stupid camera company.
01[11:12] {@Threei}  GM Reportedly recalls additional vehicles related to faulty roof air bags
01[11:12] {@Threei}  man... is anything right with those vehicles?
[11:14] {RonS} worked for a company that statistically proved to itself that a successful repair experience engendered a more loyal customer than those who never had a problem...just sayin...
01[11:14] {@Threei}  lol
[11:15] {RonS} lol...then again...it's out of business...
01[11:15] {@Threei}  - Geopolitics, the Ukraine specifically, have taken center stage once again in today's markets. Stocks traded lower in Asia and Europe which resulted in a lower US open as the latest round of escalation weighed on sentiment. Yesterday reports were surfacing that Russian troops were on the ground in parts of Southern Ukraine helping separatists. President Poroshenko confirmed as much in a press conference noting the situation on the ground had changed significantly. Talks of another round of sanctions are starting to brew as tensions are rising.
01[11:16] {@Threei}  US Treasury and German Bund markets are the beneficiaries again as rates move lower
01[11:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  116 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:41] {RonS} EZCH EZchip moves up on speculation it has canceled several conferences
[11:42] {RonS} Ebola humor spreads awareness and eases tension in West Africa: http://bloom.bg/1ldUuri
[11:43] {RonS} thinking all tension relieved once dead...
01[11:43] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine will hold an emergency meeting with NATO this Friday
[11:45] {dino} out hclp calls from 8/12, +1.32/+40%
[11:47] {RonS} gj
[11:49] {dino} ty
[11:50] {dino} emergency meeting friday with 3 day weekend, hmmm
01[11:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:54] {dino} gj
[11:54] {nemo} RSH news?
01[11:54] {@Threei}  2 days ago
[11:54] {RonS} they got some financing...
01[11:54] {@Threei}  rescue package
[11:55] {nemo} delaying the inevitable
[11:55] {dino} standard general lp stake in it
[11:55] {RonS} ya
01[11:55] {@Threei}  (UR) Russian official denies military units have moved across the Ukraine border - Other than the 9 Russian servicemen who accidentally crossed the border and were detained.
01[11:55] {@Threei}  they accidentally got lost, you see
[11:55] {RonS} 9? why not 8 or 11?
[11:55] {nemo} I met one of the heirs to the Tandy fortune way back when, she had just gotten out of the hospital and fired her accountant for embezzling money to buy a Ferrari
[11:56] {RonS} small fry then...
[11:57] {dino} putin is something else, he uses the 3 d rule. deny, deny, deny the  and world believes.
[11:58] {RonS} first boss in the 1970's...remember, your integrity is important...never steal unless it's at least a million dollars...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  not believes really... just doesn't want to deal with it
01[11:58] {@Threei}  because 9 were taken prisoners, ron
01[11:58] {@Threei}  so those were 9 that got lost :)
01[11:59] {@Threei}  couple thousands more were not caught, so they do not exist
[11:59] {nemo} http://goo.gl/YXhZc2
[11:59] {nemo} I think it's been in Congresses water supply for a while
[12:13] {nemo} mon low is it's 200 day
01[12:19] {@Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: EU summit on Saturday will discuss possible tougher sanctions on Russia
01[12:19] {@Threei}  the more I look at this the more I think, who woyuld want to have any longs into this weekend
[12:20] {nemo} vxx
01[12:20] {@Threei}  closer to eod
01[12:20] {@Threei}  not now
[12:22] {dino} feeling the same way 3i
[12:22] {dino} and yet the markets are moving up
[12:22] {nemo} US doesn't give a shit about Ukraine
[12:22] {nemo} markets worked fine under the old Soviet Union
[12:22] {dino} looks that way, nor does europe
01[12:23] {@Threei}  no, but general instability still matters
01[12:23] {@Threei}  in fact, I think they'd be happy if Putin could swallow Ukraine in one day
[12:23] {nemo} Putin won't push this much farther for a while
01[12:23] {@Threei}  no more problem
[12:23] {nemo} Oligarchs need to make money
[12:24] {dino} what easier way to make money than by taking territory
[12:25] {dino} out rh calls from earlier, +1.08/+23%
[12:27] {nemo} might get a vxx bounce play near 28
[12:31] {nemo} long .06 VXX
[12:46] {nemo} scratched it
[13:12] {nemo} c'mon Vad we need a 1:10
01[13:12] {@Threei}  uhhu
01[13:25] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[13:25] {@Threei}  e-mail I just got:
01[13:25] {@Threei}  Attn: Your Bride has been selected. see correspondence below
01[13:25] {@Threei}  We are contacting you today to introduce you to your new Beautiful-Asian Bride.
01[13:25] {@Threei}  Go here now to see who you has been selected just for you:
01[13:26] {@Threei}  yeah, but last N years my wife was picking things for me... can I ask her to review your choice?
[13:26] {RonS} rotflol
[13:35] {nemo} looks like .06 was the magic level on VXX
01[13:39] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/posts/705871676159017
[13:54] {cosmo} That's an Asain turtle?
01[13:54] {@Threei}  red footed tortoise
[13:55] {cosmo} k
[13:56] {cosmo} also looks like a yellow headed tortoise
01[14:01] {@Threei}  in case you needed more reason to visit my neck of the woods:
01[14:01] {@Threei}  http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2014/08/naked-sushi-now-vancouver/
[14:05] {RonS} schizo dish?  cold tuna on hot tuna?
01[14:14] {@Threei}  SPY doesn't look like caving in eh?
[14:14] {nemo} .18 range since 12:30
[14:22] {dino} so vad, how you gonna pull off the new bride with your wife?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  still devising the logistics
[14:23] {nemo} yeah, where he's gonna' live when his wife throws him out
01[14:23] {@Threei}  maybe sushi idea can help, wife loves them
[14:23] {dino} good luck
01[14:23] {@Threei}  so I might try and sell the idea of a new sushi tray
[14:24] {dino} going to take a lot more than that
01[14:28] {@Threei}  .25 break VXX... trap or real
01[14:29] {@Threei}  chart looks right
01[14:29] {@Threei}  a bit too early for eod drop
01[14:29] {@Threei}  not sure
01[14:29] {@Threei}  for your discretion
[15:01] {troub} starting holiday weekend early.  Enjoy weekend all.
[15:01] {RonS} have a good one troub...
01[15:01] {@Threei}  have a great one troub
[15:01] {dino} u2 troub
01[15:01] {@Threei}  see you Tiesday
01[15:01] {@Threei}  1:1 VXX
01[15:01] {@Threei}  who went for it
[15:02] {RonS} yuk yuk...
01[15:42] {@Threei}  no selloff
01[15:48] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:48] {@Threei}  decent day
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a great evbening, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {dino} gn all

Aug 27 2014

Tech problems cut log short midday, sorry. Not much lost though, as it was a day with about 20% less volume than 3-months average.

Session Time: Wed Aug 27 00:00:00 2014
[09:04] {dino} gm
[09:04] {RonS} hello
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino, ron :)
[09:13] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:13] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:13] {@Threei}  SPY volume, sheesh
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ARUN +7.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NMBL +3.8% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TUBE +32% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TIF +2.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EXPR +11% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -REX +8.0% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DCI +5.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ISNS +35% (seeing continued momentum)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -MOBL +6.6% (momentum)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -HPJ +16% (HEV/PHEV lithium-ion power battery successfully receives national level approval in China)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EDMC +9.1% (reaches agreement in principle w/creditors on debt restructuring)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NTWK +19% (signs $16M contract to implement NFS Ascent Solution)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SWHC -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SDRL -3.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -YGE -5.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SWHC -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SDRL -3.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -YGE -5.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TLM -3.0% (report that combination talks w/Repsol stalled)
[09:21] {nemo} .5 mil spy shares so far...oy vay
01[09:21] {@Threei}  [09:13] {@Threei} SPY volume, sheesh
01[09:21] {@Threei}  see what happens when you are late?
01[09:21] {@Threei}  I have to express unhappiness with the world replacing you
[09:21] {nemo} just avoiding unnecessary ramblings of a mad man
01[09:22] {@Threei}  but... we like those
[09:23] {nemo} speak for yourself
01[09:25] {@Threei}  why... you may not know that, but once a week I poll the room - do we let nemo in or not
01[09:25] {@Threei}  every time it's unanimous yes
[09:26] {nemo} MMmmmhhhh...I'm reminded of Groucho's comment about not wanting to be a member of any club that would want him
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
[09:32] {dino} out db calls from last week, +.40/88%
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:32] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:32] {dino} ty
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
[09:35] {nemo} FB
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:46] {nemo} IWM likely headed towards .50ish
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
[09:58] {dino} adding vxx calls
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:01] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:02] {@Threei}  stop to .59
01[10:06] {@Threei}  .64 now of course
01[10:06] {@Threei}  .69
[10:11] {nemo} FB looks short
[10:11] {RonS} “Regular Russian units are operating in eastern Ukraine": http://bloom.bg/VMsUp9
01[10:11] {@Threei}  yup... invasion by any other name...
01[10:12] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .35 break
01[10:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:16] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:21] {nemo} Chinese water torture market
[10:33] {dino} no kidding
[10:34] {nemo} at least waterboarding is fast
01[10:34] {@Threei}  lol
[10:45] {dino} anet spike
01[10:51] {@Threei}  BABA Sources say Alibaba is eyeing Sept 23rd as a "likely" IPO date
01[10:59] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/705307436215441/?type=1&theater
[11:00] {nemo} self portraits now?
01[11:00] {@Threei}  that's me sober Monday morning
[11:01] {RonS} scaling in to a position?
01[11:02] {@Threei}  lol
[11:02] {cosmo} almost looks ET
[11:02] {cosmo} but I give you the benifit of the doubt...
01[11:03] {@Threei}  you'd be the first
[11:03] {nemo} http://goo.gl/rH9fow
01[11:04] {@Threei}  the rest just ask inderstandingly "Jupiter or Saturn?"
[11:06] {cosmo} or maybe subterranean
[11:09] {dino} added anet puts