Wednesday, September 12, 2018

September-October 2018 Outlook: Deadlines

TradeTheNews.com September-October 2018 Outlook: Deadlines
Tue, 11 Sep 2018 20:49 PM EST

The next few months will see the culmination of a number of geopolitical issues that have been building a ‘wall of worry’ for the financial markets. A cluster of hard and soft deadlines will hit from now through the end of the year that will realign the global political and economic landscape for years to come. From the impending US Congressional election, to the due date for a Brexit deal, to looming ultimatums on trade deals, these deadline will mark binary moments that could either give markets the footholds to keep climbing or cause the first stumble toward the next recession. These key unresolved risks along with the historical trend for the September-October period to be especially volatile are a recipe for some unnerving gyrations during the next couple of months. If progress is demonstrated on these time-sensitive issues, then equity markets may continue to melt up on the strength of corporate earnings reports amid stronger fiscal stimulus and what is still a highly accommodative interest rate environment globally.

The D.C. Political Calendar

In the US, the growing intensity of the political divide between Democrats and Trump’s Republican Party may hit a crescendo in the next few months. With control of Congress the President has been able to shape an agenda of lower taxes, increased military spending, and cutting regulation. But Trump’s chaotic personality has maybe made these victories harder than they should have been and has contributed to consistently low poll numbers for the President outside of his core supporters. The installation of another conservative jurist on the Supreme Court this fall may be his last victory in a while as all indications are the Democrats should retake the House in the mid-term elections (November 6).

While a Democrat-controlled House may provide the President with a foil to grouse about obstructionism, it will effectively stall any further legislative planks in his agenda. Assuming a Democratic win, the new Congress will not be taking up additional tax cuts or discussing funding for a border wall. Democratic committee leaders will also seek more oversight of Executive activities and may even be emboldened to start impeachment proceedings (even if it’s a lost cause without a supermajority in the Senate).

The other political shoe that could drop in the next few months is the conclusion of Robert Mueller’s investigation of election meddling by Russia. With a handful of Trump associates already facing jail time it has yet to be seen if Mueller or federal prosecutors will net any bigger fish. The timeframe on when the investigation will close remains murky, but the pressure is growing with Trump’s lawyers threatening to cry foul if Mueller makes any major announcements in the two months leading up to the election, and the President himself saying since June that “he may get involved” in the FBI probe.

It should be noted that as part of his electioneering the President is also threatening another government shutdown if he does not get the border wall funding he desires. Current funding expires at the end of September, so if the Trump holds fast there could be a temporary disruption of some government services. Democrats will pounce on this as material for political ads, while the President will hope that it burnishes his reputation as a tough negotiator who is ready to shutdown “the swamp.”

Countdown to Trade War

Trump’s best hope at improving chances for the GOP in November would be to cobble together one or more significant trade deals. US trade negotiators reached a handshake deal with Mexico, but are having a harder time integrating Canada into the accord. Canada seeks a win-win-win agreement, but has said that no NAFTA is better than a bad agreement. PM Trudeau has stated outright that Canada wants to keep the dispute resolution mechanism (‘Chapter 19’) and that his country will not give in to US demands that it abandon dairy supply management (which results in high tariffs on US dairy products). Negotiators have given the impression that they are making slow progress, and if they can overcome these two points of contention it seems possible a deal could be reached by the end of September.

Markets have not reacted much to the Trump Administration’s tough talk on trade, largely on the belief that no one wants a trade war and that all sides will come to terms in the months ahead. That conviction may be tested if the US moves forward with $200 billion in additional tariffs on China that are now cleared and ready to go at any moment. President Trump appears to be holding the new tariffs in reserve as leverage to get some movement out of Beijing, and he recently threatened that another $267 billion could be teed up rapidly, which would effectively be putting duties on just about all Chinese imports.

All of this gamesmanship with tariffs does not appear to be benefitting anyone. Even though US metals manufacturers made upbeat comments about the trade restrictions, shares of US Steel have dropped 40% from the moment the metals tariffs were officially announced.

China is definitely feeling the pinch: the China Securities Journal recently forecast that export growth in the second half of 2018 may decline to 2% (after reporting July exports rising 12.2% y/y), and the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng have tumbled into a bear market. Amid these circumstances, China has shown patience and has thus far given signals that it does not intend to use currency as a weapon in the trade war. Nor has there been any sign of either side giving concessions, and by all reports there is currently minimal high-level contact between Beijing and Washington.

The lack of progress on US/China trade talks is also hampering negotiations with North Korea. President Trump effectively stopped the countdown clock on the ‘denuclearization’ of the Korean peninsula, canceling his Secretary of State’s visit on the grounds that China is no longer helping the cause. The implication is that North Korea will be put on the back burner until the Sino-American trade dispute is resolved.

The US also continues to tangle with Europe and emerging market countries on tariffs, with a large focus on the automobile and steel industries. The US and EU announced a temporary ceasefire in late July with an agreement to discuss WTO reforms and to work toward zero tariffs on non-auto industrial goods. The two sides agreed to resist implementing any new tariffs while talks are ongoing. Trade representatives from both sides will meet again at the end of September with the goal of finalizing agreements on at least some areas of trade by November.

Emerging markets are struggling with US trade pressures coupled with the strong dollar, which have exacerbated already difficult local conditions in places like Turkey and Argentina. Elections in Brazil (first round October 7, runoff October 28) will be a chance to stabilize Latin America’s biggest economy, maybe providing footing for the emerging markets. After years of the political establishment being overrun by corruption, this election could be a seen as a break with the past, though markets participants are not that keen on the expected victory by one of the more left-leaning candidates.

World leaders will have several opportunities to hash out their differences (or clash further) in the coming months. The UN General Assembly in New York, scheduled for September 25, is often used by politicians as a platform for policy speeches and a chance for bilateral meetings, and leaders will gather again in Buenos Aires on November 30 and December 1 for the G20 summit.

Brexit Deadlines Loom

The clock is running out on Brexit talks, which appear to be moving along in fits and starts, with some recent headlines indicating that EU and the UK have eased some of their redlines in hopes of getting closer to a deal. The days ahead will come down to whether the EU accepts the ‘Chequers’ proposal formulated by UK PM May as a compromise. If Chequers can be used as a framework, then an exit arrangement may still be reached by the legislative deadline that has reportedly already been pushed out a month to mid-November. If all goes well, an EU summit could be held in that timeframe to seal the deal.

Things get much more complicated, however, if the EU explicitly rejects the Chequers proposal. The BOE’s chief economist Haldane recently noted the markets are putting chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit at about one-in-four, but that may rise dramatically if the EU says ‘no’ to Chequers.

Should Chequers be spurned, pro-Brexit ministers are urging the PM to take a harder tack, endorsing an agreement framed on the EU’s trade agreement with Canada. The “Canada-plus” model envisions allowing nearly all goods to be traded without tariffs, but, just as with the Chequers plan, this new idea does not solve the most nettlesome issue in the talks: a resolution for the Irish border that prevents the reintroduction of fixed customs checks at the border that would undermine Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement. Unless UK and EU negotiators find an answer to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland soon, they may not be able to get a withdrawal agreement in place by March.

In recent days the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier stated that he sees a realistic possibility of reaching an agreement in the next 6-8 weeks. That comes on the heels of reports that the EU was instructing Barnier to get a deal done to avoid a ‘hard Brexit.’ An informal meeting of the EU 27 in Salzburg on September 19 may be the first indicator that this timeframe is on track. Current expectations are that the Salzburg meeting could report more Brexit progress and confirm plans for a formal leaders’ summit on Brexit, likely on November 13…if all goes well.

End of an Era

All of the short term deadlines of the next few months described above are coming due in the context of the end of an era of extremely accommodative monetary policy. The global economy is starting to hum again, but it is not clear how long that will continue once the unprecedented central bank accommodation is withdrawn.

Most major central banks have now made minor adjustments to edge away from ultra-easy policy, but rates largely remain stuck near zero. The BOE is only planning one more rate hike between now and 2020, the ECB is not expected to start raising rates until September 2019, and the BOJ may not raise rates for years.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will extend its divergence from other global central banks with another 25 basis point rate hike at the September 26 FOMC meeting. That will take the key rate to over 2.00% for the first time since 2008, and bring it closer to the ‘neutral’ rate which is being estimated somewhere in the 2.50-3.00% range. The September hike is locked in, but there is still some dove/hawk debate over a fourth 2018 rate hike in December. The Fed appears to be ignoring President Trump’s gripes about rates rising too fast, and that may even stiffen the Fed’s resolve to move higher again in December to demonstrate the central bank’s independence.

Markets have taken higher US rates in stride and that may continue as the Fed works its way back to the ‘neutral’ rate. As this process continues, there seems to be little discomfort with the flattening yield curve, perhaps in part because Japanese and German bonds are holding down the long end of the curve. The theory goes that the 2-10 year curve may not be as good a signal for recession as in the past because of extraordinary global rate accommodation over the last decade. However, it is possible that a yield curve inversion could still trigger a stock market reversal, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders who are trained to watch for the inversion react to it.

It appears that US economic outperformance and the strong dollar will be the dominant themes in the global economy for the rest of the year. America’s economic strength has allowed the Fed to get far ahead of other central banks in policy normalization, and now the market perspective may be shifting toward predictions of how high rates will go. Fed Chairman Powell has signaled that, with inflation looking very stable, once rates get to ‘neutral’ the Fed will be more cautious about taking rates higher from that point, even if the economy remains very strong. Barring any new shocks developing from missing one of the geopolitical ‘deadlines’ described earlier, that should give comfort to the markets that the next recession is not due any time soon.

Calendar
SEPTEMBER
3: UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
4: UK Construction PMI
5: UK Services PMI; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: China Trade Balance
7: US Payrolls & Unemployment

9: China CPI
10: UK Q2 GDP; UK Manufacturing Production
11: UK Goods Trade Balance
12: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; US PPI
13: BOE Policy Statement; ECB Policy Statement & Press Conference; US CPI; China Industrial Production
14: US Retail Sales; Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

17: EU Final CPI; Empire State Manufacturing Index
18: UK CPI & PPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOJ Policy Statement
19: US Housing Starts & Building Permits; EU 27 meeting in Salzburg
20: UK Retail Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; US Existing Home Sales
21:

24: Various EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs; German Ifo Business Climate
25: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence; UN General Assembly in NYC
26: FOMC Policy Statement & Press Conference
27: German CPI; US Final Q2 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders
28: German Retail Sales; UK Current Account; UK Final Q2 GDP; EU Flash CPI; US Personal Income & Spending; Chicago PMI
29: China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
OCTOBER
1: UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI
3: UK Services PMI; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
4:
5: US Payrolls & Unemployment

7: Brazil election (1st round)
8: China Trade Balance
9:
10: UK Q3 GDP; UK Trade Balance; US PPI
11: UK Manufacturing Production; ECB Minutes; US CPI
12: Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

15: US Retail Sales; Empire Manufacturing; China Q3 GDP; China CPI; China Industrial Production
16: UK CPI & PPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment
17: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; EU Final CPI; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; FOMC Minutes
18: UK Retail Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
19: US Existing Home Sales

22:
23:
24: Various EU Manufacturing & Services PMIs
25: German Ifo Business Climate; ECB Policy Statement & Press Conference; US Durable Goods Orders; UN General Assembly in NYC
26: US Advance Q3 GDP

28: Brazil election (2nd round)
29: German Retail Sales; US Personal Income & Spending
30: German Preliminary CPI; EU Flash Q3 GDP; US Conference Board Consumer Confidence; BOJ Policy Statement & Outlook Report
31: EU Flash CPI; Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
NOVEMBER
1: UK Manufacturing PMI; BOE Policy Decision & Inflation Report; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; US Payrolls & Unemployment

6: US Midterm Election


Sunday, September 9, 2018

Tech slides amid concerns over tariffs and regulation, dampening another strong jobs report

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Tech slides amid concerns over tariffs and regulation, dampening another strong jobs report
Fri, 07 Sep 2018 16:08 PM EST

Trading resumed with indices under modest pressure due to lingering uncertainty surrounding trade and continued volatility in emerging market FX. Tuesday saw US August ISM manufacturing data come in at the strongest level in more than a decade. NASDAQ volumes picked up notably mid-week, boosted by intensifying selling pressure in large cap tech. Sharp reversals in several high beta tech groups that surged so aggressively in recent weeks saw reversals coinciding with social media executives being grilled on Capitol Hill. Oil prices moved up ahead of Tropical Storm Gordons landfall in the Gulf and then edged lower.

Investors continued to await a decision by the Trump administration on potentially moving ahead with tariffs on an additional $200B in Chinese products along with some kind resolution to the Canada NAFTA negotiations. Simultaneously, the President was forced to deal with another barrage of press reports indicating his leadership style continues to create anxiety in the West Wing. Friday saw the August payrolls report top estimates while wages grew at 2.9% y/y. That wage figure matched the January 2018 reading which sparked a move higher in rates and a spike in volatility earlier this year. Rates moved up again with Treasury yields lifting to the highest level in about a month, but the overall stock market reaction appeared subdued. The Dollar also firmed except against the Pound. Cable gained on multiple reports of potential thawing around some key Brexit negotiating themes. For the week, the S&P fell 1%, the DJIA slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.6%, suffering its biggest weekly decline since late March.

In corporate news, top tech executives were in the hot seat this week. Twitter’s CEO Dorsey and Facebook’s COO Sandberg were called before Congress to discuss privacy and censorship issues. Tesla shares dropped as much as 10% on Friday in response to video of CEO Musk smoking pot during a podcast interview, followed closely by the resignation of his Chief Accounting Officer. Costco kept the positive news for retailers going with a report of an 8% surge in August same store sales.

MON 9/3

TUES 9/4
*(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA Q2 GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -0.7% V +0.6%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 1.0%E (moves into recession for 1st time since 2009)
*(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.7 V 54.5E (lowest since Nov 2017)
AMZN Tests $2,050.27, becomes second publicly listed US company valued at $1 trillion

WED 9/5
BAYN.DE Reports Q2 adj €1.54 v €1.64e, adj EBITDA €2.34B v €2.45Be, Rev €9.5B v €9.3Be; Completes Monsanto acquistion
*(UK) AUG SERVICES PMI: 54.3 V 53.9E (25th month of expansion)
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED; Recent data reinforced view that higher rates would be warranted
(US) Conference Board Aug Total online job ads 4.61M v 4.65M m/m v 4.52M y/y; New ads 1.74M v 1.89M m/m v 1.90M y/y
(US) Dept of Justice to convene meeting to discuss 'growing concern' that social media companies are stifling the exchange of ideas and may be hurting competition - press
(KR) South Korea Official: North and South Korea to hold summit on Sept 18-20 in North Korea; said North Korea leader Kim said he wanted to realize denuclearization during US President Trump's first term, noted he no longer intends to test long-range missile

THRS 9/6
*(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.50; AS EXPECTED (pushes back 1st potential rate hike to Dec or Feb)
*(US) AUG ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +163K V +200KE
*(US) Q2 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 2.9% V 3.0%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: -1.0% V -0.9%E
*(US) AUG ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX: 58.5 V 56.8E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.3M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +1.8M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +3.1M V +0.5ME
(JP) Pres Trump reportedly hinted in press interview that trade fight with Japan may be next on agenda - CNBC
COST Reports August SSS (ex gas) +8.0%, US SSS (ex gas) +8.9%

FRI 9/7
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E
(UK) EU's Barnier said to be open to other backstops for Irish border and simplify checks- Transcript release by UK govt of Sept 3rd meeting
*(CA) CANADA AUG NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: -51.6K V +5.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.0% V 5.9%E
TSLA Chief Accounting Officer Morton resigns, effective immediately (resigns after one month in the job)


Saturday, September 1, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive feature on KSU 
Cover story: A move by the S&P and MSCI to reconstitute their indexes by moving AMZN to consumer discretionary and FB and GOOGL to communications services and out of the tech sector will have a ripple effect throughout the professional money-management industry, and could mean big changes for investors’ portfolios. 

Features: 1) With changes being made to how stocks are classified by industry, the tech sector is about to get smaller, which could help investors, partly by cutting out short-term noise; 2) Positive on KSU: Railway will benefit from the fact that the U.S. trade relationship with Mexico isn’t set to substantially change, allowing it to continue transporting goods in both directions across the border; 3) Two years after starting as a new kind of real estate company, Compass has reversed course and embraced a traditional model using agent commissions, but says its technology boosts effectiveness. 

Tech Trader: Though most co-CEO efforts during the past few decades have failed, CRM’s move to have chief operating officer Keith Block share the CEO role with Marc Benioff has so far been a success by nearly every measure. 

Trader: Investors have approached uncertainty around Nafta by buying tech giants such as AAPL and MSFT, while other tech shares—including ADSK, ANET, and SPLK—have been rallying on good news; Cautious on BBY: Investors’ reaction to the retailer’s earnings says more about market expectations than the results themselves; Cautious on DLTR: The recent share drop can’t solely be attributed to the discount retailer’s one cent miss on net income per share—it reflects other concerns. 

Profile: Michael Lippert, manager of the Baron Opportunity fund, invests in innovation through companies instigating change or benefiting from it (top 10 holdings: AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, GWRE, IT, AAPL, CSGP, TSLA, ACXM, EA). 

Interview: Mariana Mazzucato, a professor of economics at University College London, talks about the limitations of conventional views of value and other conclusions from her recent book, “The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy.” 

Follow-Up: The political heat on FB and TWTR “has reached white-hot intensity over their susceptibility to foreign interests digitally manipulating their vast platforms,” and for now Washington may have the upper hand. 

European Trader: Fears about the Brexit may start to grow as investors in the U.S. and U.K. return from their summer holidays, says Helen Thomas of Blonde Money. 

Emerging Markets: The new trade deal with Mexico led its markets and currency to dip, because a Nafta agreement was already priced in. 

Commodities: A serious threat to hog supplies in China, the world’s largest pork consumer, could lead to a bounce-back in hog prices, which are down 28% year to date. 

Streetwise: Columnist Mary Childs discusses the debate about whether a hedge fund such as Aurelius Capital Management can ever be justified in forcing a perfectly functional company into bankruptcy—in this case, Windstream Holdings.

Friday, August 31, 2018

Risk-On Sentiment Rules Amid Tentative Progress on Trade Issues

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Risk-On Sentiment Rules Amid Tentative Progress on Trade Issues
Fri, 31 Aug 2018 16:09 PM EST

The S&P opened the week at record levels while the Nasdaq topped 8,000 and the Dow rose above 26,000 for the first time since February, as positive sentiment over strong corporate earnings was augmented by some apparent progress on trade. News of a trade agreement between the US and Mexico buoyed optimism about a trilateral deal being reached, but Canada was not convinced by Friday afternoon, leaving the US to press ahead with a Mexico deal with more US/Canada talks next week. Amazon pushed closer to a $1 trillion market cap and Apple surged again to new all-time highs as large cap tech led the way higher yet again. Sentiment waned into the back half of week as emerging market volatility and potential contagion fears resurfaced around fresh plunges in the Argentine peso and Turkish Lira along with notable weakness in other EM exchange rates forced central banks to respond. That consternation remained prevalent in bond trading too as Treasury yields moved lower after rising earlier in the week. The composition of the curve continued to flash warning signals to many observers including to some within the Federal Reserve. The 2-10 yield spread tested below 20 basis points several times after last week’s Jackson Hole commentary. The S&P500 ended the week up 0.9%, while the DJIA gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.1%.

In corporate news this week, Salesforce shares slipped on conservative Q3 guidance and a miss on billings revenue. Under Armour dropped after Dick’s Sporting Goods noted it saw “continued significant declines in Under Armour sales” due to their decision to expand distribution. Best Buy lost some ground after its Q3 outlook disappointed. Lululemon surged after another beat and guidance raise. Electronic Arts shares fell after it cut its bookings outlook and announced a delayed launch for ‘Battlefield V’. Coca Cola acquired UK coffeehouse chain Costa Ltd for £3.9B in a move to compete with Starbucks and other coffee brands in Europe.


MONDAY 8/27
(DE) GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 103.8 V 101.8E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 106.4 V 105.3E
(US) AUG DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 30.9 V 30.0E
(US) US and Mexico reach trade deal to replace NAFTA - press
(US) President Trump: There will be US-Mexico trade agreement; will call this US-Mexico trade agreement, dropping NAFTA name

TUESDAY 8/28
3988.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 109.1B v 103.7B y/y, Op Income 251.5B v 248.4B y/y
TIF Reports Q2 $1.17 v $1.00e, Rev $1.08B v $1.04Be
BBY Reports Q2 $0.91 v $0.83e, Enterprise Rev $9.38B v $9.25Be

WEDNESDAY 8/29
(IT) Italy govt reportedly seen reaching out to ECB for a new round of QE - press
(FR) FRANCE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED (2ND READING) Q/Q: 4.2% V 4.0%E (highest since 2014); PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.8% V 3.9%E
(UK) EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier: We're prepared to offer Britain a partnership unlike with any other country
(US) JULY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -0.7% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.5% V -2.5%E
(US) DOE CRUDE: -2.6M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -1.6M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: -0.8M V +2ME
(RU) Sec of State Pompeo reportedly asks for meeting with Russia Foreign Min Lavrov to ease tensions ahead of new planned sanctions - Wash Post
(DE) Germany Foreign Ministry: there will be no special rules for a post-Brexit UK
CRM Reports Q2 $0.71 v $0.47e, Rev $3.28B v $3.23Be; raises FY19 outlook

THURSDAY 8/30
(DE) GERMANY AUG UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -8K V -8KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.2% V 5.2%E
(HK) Macau July Hotel Occupancy Rate: 89.9%, -0.9ppts y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.22 V 1.26E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): -1.9 V -1.9E
(EU) EU said would agree with zero tariffs on industrial goods (including cars) if US agree - financial press
(CN) China Cabinet reportedly adopting new measures to support the real economy; to improve national medicines system - press
(AR) Argentina Central Bank said to be meeting before local market open on Thursday - financial press
*(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0%E
*(CA) CANADA JUN GDP M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.3%E
(AR) Argentina Central Bank (BCRA) raises LELIQ Rate by 1500bps to 60.00% (from 45.00%) (intra-policy decision)
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 4.1% from 4.6% prior
(CN) President Trump reportedly tells aides he is ready to implement the proposed $200B in new China tariffs as soon as next week, though final decision is still pending - press
(US) President Trump: will withdraw from WTO if it doesn't 'shape up'; don't regret naming Powell as Fed Chair - press interview
(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED
*(CN) CHINA AUG OFFICIAL GOVT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.3 V 51.0E
USD/IDR Rupiah (IDR) currency extends decline, trades at lowest level since 1998; Indonesia 10-year bond yield trades above 8.02% (highest since Dec 2016)

FRIDAY 8/31
WTB.UK To divest Costa Ltd to Coca-Cola for £3.9B
(DE) GERMANY JULY RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.4% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.3%E
(DE) GERMANY JULY RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.4% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.3%E
(CA) Canada govt officials said to doubt having a NAFTA deal by today (Friday, Aug 31st) – press
*(US) CANADA-US NAFTA TALKS END WITH NO AGREEMENT; TRUMP TO NOTIFY CONGRESS OF PLANS TO PROCEED WITH MEXICO-ONLY DEAL TO REPLACE NAFTA
(CA) USTR Lighthizer confirms US/Canada talks will resume on Wed (Sept 5); plan to sign a trade deal with Mexico, and with Canada if they are willing


Saturday, August 25, 2018

Barron’s weekend summary

Barron’s weekend summary: Cover story on the cloud in video gaming, positive for EA and ATVI 
Cover story: “The cloud is the future of videogaming, and it could arrive sooner than many players expect, with important implications for investors”; Companies such as EA and ATVI will benefit, while NVDA, MSFT, and SNE may face challenges because of the trend. 

Features: 1) Steve Perlman—whose OnLive streaming game service offering a flat-fee subscription model came online more than a decade ago—explains why the cloud gaming revolution has taken so long; 2) The Value Investors Club “is the rare medium where partners at hedge funds will anonymously discuss stocks with investors they know nothing about,” and where members with good ideas can make a name for themselves. 

Tech Trader: Cautious on NFLX: Investors should pay close attention to the stock as rivals DIS and T rush to emulate its Internet video business, especially because Netflix earnings are largely a creation of accounting practices. 

Trader: Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group “points to the number of stocks making new lows in recent weeks as one worrisome trend,” though it shouldn’t make investors grow too bearish; The healthcare sector has faced problems, but is regaining its strength, and the rally may just be getting started—though there are still risks. 

Interview: Dan Chung, chief executive and chief investment officer at Fred Alger Management, argues that the forces that have lifted the market are far from spent (picks: MSFT, ROP, TNDM, Puma). 

Profile: Martin Schulz of the PNC International Equity fund and his team cover specific regions and let macroeconomic outlooks guide their initial investment decisions (top 10 holdings: Wirecard, Tencent Holdings, SNE, BABA, ASML, Ping An Insurance Group, HDB, Nidec, AIA Group, AEM). 

Follow-Up: 1) Positive on GSK: Shares of the pharma company are rebounding after years of poor performance, and investors believe it can replace one blockbuster asthma drug with another, while other drug studies show potential; 2) Cautious on LB: Barron’s suggests that the company can’t be fixed despite some positive steps—Victoria’s Secret discounts are failing to entice shoppers while Pink’s sales could drop by half. 

European Trader: Positive on Carlsberg: The Danish brewing giant “could fit the bill for long-term investors thirsting for an undervalued, but promising, consumer stock,” and it appears to be on track for better profitability. 

Emerging Markets: Positive on Tencent Holdings: Chinese online colossus has become the largest stock in emerging markets, and its recent drop presents a buying opportunity—the company should resume its winning ways. 

Commodities: “Sugar prices have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade and are likely to drop further as record worldwide production collides with healthier eating.” 

Streetwise: Senator Elizabeth Warren’s introduction of legislation that would require large U.S. companies to create a “material positive impact on society” is misguided, and would fail to solve the problem of growing inequality.

Political and Trade Troubles in Washington Discounted by Bullish Markets

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Political and Trade Troubles in Washington Discounted by Bullish Markets
Fri, 24 Aug 2018 16:06 PM EST

US stock indices made a run at historic highs this week. Hopes for movement in the NAFTA and China trade negotiations, abatement of the recent US dollar strength, a continued benign interest rate environment as well as a thin summer trading were most often cited for the melt up. The view on the US consumer remained vibrant, getting support from historically strong earnings reports from several high profile US retailers. Target’s CEO declared the consumer environment was the best of his career. The momentum waned somewhat mid-week after President Trump’s former campaign Manager was found guilty on various counts, and his former personal lawyer Michael Cohen took a plea while his lawyer insinuated he has further information related to the Russia election hacking investigation.

The US went ahead and slapped tariffs on another $16B in Chinese goods amid low expectations for progress as trade negotiations resumed in Washington. Meanwhile US/Mexico trade talks fell short of an agreement, but will continue next week. Both the Fed and ECB released minutes from their most recent meetings and the commentary did little to lift Treasury yields from the lows of the month. The US curve flattened further with the 2-10 yield spread narrowing toward 20 basis points for the first time this cycle. On Friday Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the case for gradual rate hikes, and hinted that tightening may slow when the ‘neutral’ rate is reached even if the economy is still strong because there is no sign of inflation accelerating. Stocks pushed aside the political and trade troubles and ended higher: the S&P500 gained 0.9% on the week to set a new record high, while the DJIA added 0.5% and the Nasdaq surged 1.7%.

In corporate news this week, a swath of retailers released earnings, with mixed results. Target posted its best quarterly comps figure in 13 years. Lowe's cut its outlook after announcing plans to close every one of its 99 Orchard Supply stores. Gap investors took profits after the clothier affirmed its FY outlook. Williams Sonoma jumped on an earnings beat, but L Brands slipped to its lowest level in seven years on disappointing guidance. Footlocker slid on a comp sales miss, and Hibbett Sports reported a surprise loss and cut guidance. Online brokers took a hit after JPMorgan announced an investing app with free or discounted trades and no-fee access to stock research. There were reports that Saudi Arabia had abandoned its Saudi Aramco IPO, but the Saudis responded that the government remains committed to the plan but will do so at a time of its own choosing. PepsiCo announced it would acquire carbonated beverage machine maker Sodastream for $144/share in cash in a deal valued at $3.2B. And mobile game developer Zynga got a boost from an agreement with Disney to produce free-to-play Star Wars videogames.

MONDAY 8/20
SODA To be acquired by PepsiCo for $144/shr in cash valued at $3.2B
(US) President Trump: not thrilled with what Fed Chief Powell is doing so far, should be more accommodating - press interview
(US) President Trump: does not anticipate much coming out of meeting with Chinese delegation regarding trade talks this week - press interview
(TR) President Trump: will give no concessions to Turkey over detained US pastor; not concerned about any economic fallout for Europe over Turkey sanctions - press interview
BHP.AU Reports FY18 Underlying Net $9.6B (continuing ops) v $9.2Be, Underlying EBITDA $24.1B (includes Onshore US business) v $24.3Be, Rev $45.8B v $45.5Be

TUESDAY 8/21
JPM To unveil new investing app with free or discounted trades, portfolio building tool, and no-fee access to stock research - CNBC
(US) Former Trump lawyer Cohen enters guilty plea at court hearing; says he violated campaign law at direction of the 'candidate', sought to influence the election
(US) Former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort found guilty on eight counts including tax fraud, bank fraud charges - press
(VE) 7.3 magnitude earthquake reported off northern coast of Venezuela
(MX) US said to announce 'handshake' NAFTA deal related to Mexico on Thursday (Aug 23rd), says Politico; Mexico said to deny the existence of a deal related to NAFTA, according to a separate report

WEDNESDAY 8/22
LOW Reports Q2 $2.07 v $2.02e, Rev $20.9B v $20.8Be; adjusts outlook, strategic reassessment is ongoing to exit Orchard Supply Hardware
TGT Reports Q2 $1.47 v $1.40e, Rev $17.8B v $17.3Be
(US) USTR: no deal yet on NAFTA, there are still major outstanding issues
*(US) JULY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.34M V 5.40ME (slowest pace in over two years)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.8M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +1.2M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +1.8M V +1.5ME
ARAMCO.IPO Saudi Arabia reportedly abandons Aramco IPO and has dismissed advisers - press
*(US) FOMC MINUTES FROM AUG 1ST MEETING: MANY OFFICIALS SAID ANOTHER RATE INCREASE WOULD LIKELY SOON BE APPROPRIATE; OFFICIALS NOTE RATES MOVING CLOSER TO ESTIMATES OF NEUTRAL

THURSDAY 8/23
*(FR) FRANCE AUG BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 105 V 107E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 110 V 108E
(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.7 V 53.5E (23rd month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.1 V 56.5E (44th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.6 V 55.2E (61st month of expansion)
(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Hurricane Lane (Category 4) is the biggest weather threat to Hawaii in decades (1959 and 1992 last time hurricanes made landfall)
BABA Reports Q2 $1.22* v $1.29e, Rev $12.2B v $12.3Be
*(US) AUG PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.5 V 55.0E (9-month low)
*(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 627K V 645KE
GPS Reports Q2 $0.76 v $0.72e, Rev $4.09B v $3.98Be
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY149B 1-YEAR MEDIUM-TERM LENDING FACILITY (MLF) V CNY383B PRIOR AT 3.30% V 3.30% PRIOR (2nd MLF operation this month)
(AU) Australia PM Turnbull reiterates stance that said will not stand for PM and resigns as the leader of the Liberal party; Ruling Liberal Party voted 45 to 40 to hold leadership ballot for the party
(AU): Australia Treasurer Morrison to replace Turnbull as PM after winning party leadership vote - Australia Media

FRIDAY 8/24
(DE) GERMANY Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0%E
(CN) China PBoC said to resume counter-cyclical factor in Yuan mid-point fixing mechanism - financial press
*(US) JULY PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.7% V -1.0%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: 0.2% V 0.5%E
*(US) Fed Chair Powell: Gradual hikes are likely appropriate if growth stays strong; US economy is strong; does not seem to be elevated risk of overheating - Jackson Hole symposium speech
(MX) Mexico Pres-elect Lopez Obrador reportedly holds position on oil policy that is hindering new NAFTA agreement - press
(KR) Pres Trump asks Sec of State Pompeo to cancel North Korea trip at this time due to lack of denuclearization progress; says China is not helping with denuclearization process 'as they once were'


Saturday, August 18, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive feature on STT and on fertilizer makers (CF MOS NTR.CA) 

- Cover story explores investing in blockchain's future winner as estimates for blockchain related revenue ramps from about $5B this year to over $3.1T by 2030 (Gartner estimate). IBM and MSFT are investing in the tech but don't break out their related revenue. Logistics related firms like A.P. Moller-Maersk and Walmart are also working on putting the food supply chain on to blockchain tech.

Positive feature on State Street (STT) says the bank stock has underperformed this year mainly on concerns about its acquisition o analytics firm Charles River Development. STT paid a hefty price for ht acquisition but investors should come back to STT as it digests Charles River and resume share buybacks in 2019.

Positive feature on fertilizer names (CF MOS NTR.CA) says there could be 25% upside in the companies as a supply glut has not materialized and demand is steadily increasing.

Friday, August 17, 2018

Markets Shake Off Trade and Contagion Concerns Again

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Shake Off Trade and Contagion Concerns Again
Fri, 17 Aug 2018 16:24 PM EST

Global markets were forced to contend with elevated bouts of volatility this week, but ultimately US stock indices stayed within reach of the all-time highs hit earlier this year. Emerging market FX swings precipitated a spike in risk off sentiment through mid-week. A plunging Turkish Lira brought about worries regarding European bank exposure, and contagion fears were exacerbated by another move lower in the Yuan which approached levels not seen in nearly a decade. China growth concerns emerged after another string of disappointing economic data came alongside weak corporate reports by several Chinese tech darlings. US stock markets continued to outperform the rest of the globe and the Dollar index surged above 96. Treasury prices also benefited modestly from risk-off flows keeping yields subdued and flattening the US 2-10 year spread back below 25 basis points. Late in the week equities surged on news the US and China would restart trade negotiations in Washington next week ahead of a multilateral summit in November. For the week the S&P and DJIA each gained 0.1%, while the Nasdaq slipped less than 0.1%.

In corporate news this week, Walmart posted its biggest rise in US sales in over 10 years amid improved e-commerce growth and strong fresh food sales. Macy’s shares fell despite reporting an earnings beat and raising guidance as investors saw slipping market share against its online and lower cost rivals. Nvidia shares tumbled after reporting lower than expected revenue guidance and seeing no contribution from crypto-specific products going forward. Applied Materials also fell on guidance and pointed to near-term softness in customer spending. Constellation Brands made a $4B bet on the emerging cannabis industry, taking a 38% stake in Canopy Growth and hinted it may begin selling a drinkable product in Canada by next year. VFC announced a plan to split off its denim business into a separate company. Tesla shares on Friday saw their worst day since late March after a New York Times interview with CEO Musk in which he described a difficult year leading the company.


MONDAY 8/13
VFC Announces Intention to Create Two Independent, Publicly Traded Companies
(TR) Speculation that Turkey could release the US pastor Brunson held under house arrest by Aug 15th - twitter

TUESDAY 8/14
(DE) GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E
(UK) JUN AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS (EX BONUS) 3M/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(UK) JULY JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: +6.2K V +9.0K PRIOR; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.5% V 2.5% PRIOR
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.1%E
*(DE) GERMANY AUG ZEW CURRENT SITUATION: 72.6 V 72.1E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:-13.7 V -21.3E
HD Reports Q2 $3.05 v $2.84e, Rev $30.5B v $30.0Be
(CN) China govt launches WTO dispute settlement procedure over US photovoltaic subsidies
GOOGL Reportedly plans to invest $375M in Oscar Health - press
EGN To be acquired by Diamondback for 0.6442 shares/shr, valuing it at $9.2B

WEDNESDAY 8/15
(ID) INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK (BI) RAISES 7-DAY REVERSE REPO BY 25BPS TO 5.50%; NOT EXPECTED
*(UK) JULY CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.5%E
700.HK Reports Q2 (CNY) Net 17.9B v 19.3Be, Rev 73.7B v 77.7Be
WEED.CA Constellation Brands to acquire 38% stake for C$48.60/shr valued at C$5B in strategic partnership
M Reports Q2 $0.59 (ex asset sale gain) v $0.49e, Rev $5.57B v $5.59Be
*(US) AUG EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 25.6 V 20.0E
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 2.9% V 2.4%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: -0.9% V 0.0%E
(US) JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 78.1% V 78.2%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +6.8M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: -0.7M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +3.6M V +1ME
(TR) Qatar has pledged to invest $15B in Turkey economy - Turkish press
CSCO Reports Q4 $0.70 v $0.69e, Rev $12.8B v $12.8Be
(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China Vice Commerce Min to visit the US for trade talks in late Aug, to meet with US Treasury Undersecretary Malpass

THURSDAY 8/16
CARLB.DK Reports H1 (DKK) Adj Net 2.51B v 2.29B y/y, Adj EBITDA 6.48B v 6.63B y/y, Rev 31.0B v 30.6Be
*(UK) JULY RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: 0.9% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 2.8%E
WMT Reports Q2 $1.29 v $1.21e, Rev $128.0B v $125.6Be
(US) JULY HOUSING STARTS: 1.17M V 1.26ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.31M V 1.31ME
(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 11.9 V 22.0E (lowest level since Nov 2016)
NVDA Reports Q2 $1.94 v $1.83e, Rev $3.12B v $3.11Be

FRIDAY 8/17
(US) President Trump has reportedly asked SEC to consider allowing US companies to report corporate results on 6-month basis – press
(CN) US and China reportedly plot roadmap to resolve trade dispute before Pres Trump-Pres Xi meeting in Nov - press

Sunday, August 12, 2018

Strong Dollar and Risk-On Sentiment Persist

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Strong Dollar and Risk-On Sentiment Persist
Fri, 10 Aug 2018 16:07 PM EST

US stock momentum built for much of this week as investors looked past the US China trade spat to push indices within striking distance of the all-time highs made earlier this year. The NASADAQ led with that index posting a string of 8 straight daily rises before Friday. Oil began the week bid as traders looked to handicap the most recent round of Iran sanctions that took effect at midnight on Monday. Rates drifted sideways most of the week despite a record amount of issuance from the US Treasury helped by relatively benign US inflation readings. The Greenback strengthened against a broad array of currencies. Trade worries held back the Yuan, Italian budget negotiations caused some consternation around the Euro, emerging market currencies were dogged by geopolitics (Lira, Ruble), and the Pound remained beholden to Brexit concerns. By Friday, the plunge in the Turkish Lira had accelerated leading some in Europe worry about potential contagion risks for the European banks. That narrative resulted in a flight from risk including global stocks while buoying bond prices. For the week the S&P500 slipped 0.3% and the DJIA fell 0.6%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

As earnings season began to wind down this week, Snap shares took a hit after it reported a miss on its daily active user count, though a Saudi prince’s investment in the company helped later bolster the stock. On Tuesday it was revealed that Saudi money also flowed in to Tesla, whose CEO pushed shares even higher with a tweet that created an uproar as Musk pondered a going private transaction. Dropbox slipped after announcing the departure of its COO, and Pepsi shares fell after its long-time CEO Indra Nooyi announced she would be retiring in October. Elsewhere, some commodity intensive firms shared concerns about tariff impacts, notably Ford which said steel and aluminum duties have become a significant headwind. On the M&A front, uncertainty rose regarding Linde and Praxair’s merger as US regulators made potentially overly burdensome divestment demands. Rite Aid and Albertsons agreed to call off their merger after pushback from investors. Tribune terminated its $3.9B merger deal with Sinclair due to FCC opposition. Australia’s Amcor announced it would acquire American rival Bemis in a move to create a global leader in packaging.

SUN 8/5
LIN.DE Linde: increased requirements for the merger clearances are likely to exceed a threshold for merger clearances previously agreed between Linde and Praxair

MON 8/6
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 14.7 V 13.4E
FAST Reports July Net Sales $411.6M, +17.6% y/y
PEP CEO Indra Nooyi to step down effective Oct 3rd; 22yr veteran Ramon Laguarta (54) named new CEO
BMS To be acquired by Amcor for $57.75/shr in all-stock deal valued at $6.8B; combined company to list on NYSE, ASX
(IR) Trump administration official: first batch of US sanctions against Iran will go into force at midnight Tuesday

TUES 8/7
DPW.DE Reports Q2 Net €516M v €602M y/y, EBIT €747M v €841M y/y, Rev €15.0B v €15.0Be
(US) White House officials sought to reassure tech industry representatives at a private meeting last week that the Trump administration's pugnacious trade policies will ultimately aid their businesses - Axios
TSLA Saudi Arabia sovereign wealth fund reportedly has built a $2B stake - FT
TSLA *CEO Musk tweets: Considering taking Tesla private at $420/shr; funding secured
*(US) JUN CONSUMER CREDIT: $10.2B V $15.0BE
DIS Reports Q3 $1.87 v $1.97e, Rev $15.2B v $15.5Be
(CN) US Trade Rep Lighthizer: Trump administration has finalized the second tranche of $16B tariffs on Chinese products (in addition to the initial $34B in tariffs implements last month on July 6th) - press
SNAP Reports Q2 -$0.14 v -$0.17e, Rev $262.3M v $248Me; Daily active users (DAUs) 188M, -2% q/q; Prince Alwaleed tweets that he has invested $250M to take a 2.3% stake
(CN) China State Planner (NDRC): To use monetary policy including targeted RRR cuts to support debt to equity swaps
*(CN) CHINA JULY TRADE BALANCE (CNY): 176.9B V 227.1BE
(CN) CHINA JULY TRADE BALANCE:$28.1B V $38.9BE

WED 8/8
005930.KR Announces investment plan worth KRW180T over 3-years that includes CAPEX and R&D
(IT) Italy PM Conte: Budget will be serious, rigorous and courageous, will contain a package of 'realistic' reforms
(CN) China Commerce Ministry confirms retaliatory tariff on $16B of US goods to take effect on Aug 23rd, reiterates stance that it was forced to retaliate
NYT Reports Q2 $0.17 v $0.18 y/y, Rev $414.6M v $407.1M y/y
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.4M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +2.9M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +1.2M V 0ME
Ford Exec: steel & aluminum tariffs have become a significant headwind, but Ford will not pass on the higher commodity costs to customers - press
RAD Agrees to terminate $24B merger with Albertsons

THURS 8/9
941.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 65.6B v 63.4Be; EBITDA 145.9B v 146Be; Rev 391.8B v 385Be
TKA.DE Reports Q3 Net -€131M v -€251M y/y, adj EBIT €332M v €438Me, Rev €11.12B v €10.9Be
DTE.DE Reports Q2 adj Net €1.24B v €1.37Be, adj EBITDA €5.93B v €5.84Be, Rev €18.4B v €18.6Be
US Postal Office reports Q3 net loss $1.5B, Rev $17.1B, +2.4% y/y
(US) JULY PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.4%E
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 4.3% from 4.4% prior
TRCO Confirms to terminate merger agreement with Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc.; files lawsuit for breach of contract
(JP) JAPAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.3%E; ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.4%E

FRI 8/10
(EU) ECB Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) said to be concerned about the exposures that Unicredit, BNP Paribas, and BBVA have to Turkey - FT
(RU) Russia PM Medvedev: Moscow would consider it "economic war" if US imposes ban on banks or use of particular currency
*(UK) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.3%E (annual pace moves off recent 5-year lows)
*(UK) JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.0%E
(TR) Turkey President Erdogan: Converting FX to TRY currency (Lira) would be the nation's best response in economic war; the USD dollar and other things cannot block our path
*(US) JULY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E
*(CA) CANADA JULY NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +54.1K V +17.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
(TR) Pres Trump tweets: have authorized doubling steel & aluminum tariffs against Turkey to 50% and 20%


Sunday, August 5, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive featured on FB, FCAU 
Cover story: Barron’s partnered with Backend Benchmarking to publish the first ranking of major robo-advisor firms that uses both performance data and qualitative metrics like ease of use and financial-planning capabilities; The top ten firms are Vanguard, Betterment, SigFig, E*Trade, Schwab, Wealthfront, WiseBanyan, Personal Capital, FutureAdvisor, and Acorns. 

Features: 1) The container-leasing business is in the second year of a four-to-five year cycle, with growth coming from replacement containers and increased global shipping volume, says Cowen’s Helane Becker; 2) Positive on FB: Shares of the social site would seem to be a bargain after last week’s drop, especially because the company is a rarity: a megacap with a reasonable valuation whose revenues have 25% upside next year; 3) Positive on FCAU: Despite the death of CEO Sergio Marchionne and mixed quarterly results, analysts expect the automaker to grow earnings faster than U.S. rivals, and shares are 75% cheaper than the broad S&P 500 index; 4) Few companies say they have seen positive effects from Donald Trump’s tariffs, while many cite none, or describe only modest negatives—though it’s ultimately too early to tell what the overall results will be. 

Tech Trader: Most tech companies that remain in their specialized niches will have a hard time adapting to the changing landscape—rather than bending the world according to their vision, as AMZN has done, they remain focused simply on avoiding problems. 

Trader: “Tariffs remain a central concern and an important driver of economic and market action, and they probably affected Q2 GDP by causing exporters to speed up deliveries, particularly of farm products, ahead of the new duties”; A majority of active fund managers beat their benchmarks last year, allowing them to reverse the cash outflows they’ve suffered amid the growth in passive investing; Cautious on LLY: The key question for investors is whether the pharma company’s superior growth is baked into the stock price. 

Interview: Sarat Sethi and Ned Dewees, managing partners at Douglas C. Lane & Associates, are positive on the U.S. economy and consumer, and the potential of big data; Their portfolios don’t include AMZN or NFLX (holdings: ILMN, IAC, MSFT, ORCL, FRC, XPO). Profile: Will Muggia, manager of the Touchstone Mid Cap Growth fund, uses a model based on analyst track records that closely monitors each analyst’s contribution to portfolio risk relative to the benchmark (top 10 holdings: WP, PXD, FIS, FLT, JBHT, TRU, TIF, COO, TDY, AME). 

European Trader: Positive on Charter Court Financial Services Group, OneSavings Bank: Firms are the top choices for investors in the British challenger bank sector, says Goodbody analyst John Cronin. 

Emerging Markets: Trade wars and a strong dollar aren’t hitting all emerging markets: Latin America is on a tear, with ETFs covering Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina up during the past month. 

Commodities: Investors shouldn’t expect gold prices to rebound anytime soon “because the strength of the U.S. dollar will keep a lid on any rally and at the very least could push prices for the metal down further.” 

Streetwise: The ongoing closure of newspapers will affect investors because without reporters there will be less information available upon which to base decisions.

Saturday, August 4, 2018

US Data and Corporate Earnings Outshine Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: US Data and Corporate Earnings Outshine Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns

Markets worked through a heavy news weak in relatively decent form. The push and pull of peak earnings season came against a backdrop of key central banks meetings and the escalating trade dispute between the US and China. US corporations continued to generally beat Q2 expectations by a significant margin, but managements remained reticent to offer overly aggressive outlooks due to rising cost inputs, the stronger US dollar and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade. For the week the S&P500 gained 0.8%, the DJIA edged up less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%.

On Tuesday the BOJ offered up its first ever forward guidance which resulted in volatility in the JGB market, and eventually higher interest rates globally. Wednesday’s FOMC statement left the door wide open for two more rate hikes this year, while the BOE raised rates for just the second time this decade. By midweek, expectations were growing that the Trump administration was set to make an announcement to put further pressure on China by ratcheting up tariffs on another $200B in Chinese goods. The Yuan dropped to new lows and the Chinese stock market came under renewed pressure. The Greenback was also helped by another string of solid US economic data resulting in the Atlanta Fed taking up its US Q3 GDP forecast to as high as 5%(later trimmed to 4.4% on Friday), while most major European PMIs missed expectations. Friday’s July jobs growth came in below forecast but June numbers were revised higher. The report did little to change market expectations surrounding tepid wage growth and was somewhat overshadowed by China's announcement of plans to retaliate against the Trump administration’s latest tariff threats.

In terms of corporate news this week, the focus remained on earnings. Apple reached the $1T market cap level on the back of a strong profit beat in a quarter which saw its average selling price for iPhones jump. Tesla rallied after promising a profitable second half, and shares were further boosted when a contrite CEO Musk apologized for past behavior during the earnings call. Wynn and MGM fell on continued softness in casino earnings reports, while Caesars management said to expect weakness in Las Vegas programming in July and August. Chipotle lost some of last week’s gains on the latest report regarding food-related illnesses at a store in Ohio. CBS opened marginally lower on Friday after an earnings conference call that steered clear of addressing sexual misconduct claims against CEO Les Moonves.


MON 7/30
HEIA.NL Reports H1 Net €1.08B v €1.04B y/y, Op €1.75B v €1.81B y/y, Rev €10.8B v €10.3B y/y
(JP) BOJ AGAIN CONDUCTS FIXED-RATE JGB PURCHASE OPERATION FOR an unlimited amount of 5-10-YR JGBs at 0.10% (3rd operation within the past week)
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.29 V 1.35E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): -0.6 V -0.6E
*(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €6.0B VS. €4.50-6.0B INDICATED RANGE IN 5-YEAR AND 10-YEAR BTP BONDS
CAT Reports Q2 $2.97 v $2.66e, Rev $14.0B v $13.8Be; To raise prices
(DE) GERMANY JULY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E
*(US) JUN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 0.9% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -4.0% V -2.8% PRIOR (6th straight month of y/y declines)
*(US) JULY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 32.3 V 30.0E
CAT Feel good about business, taking orders for delivery well into 2019 - earnings call
(KR) South Korea Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.9%e; M/My: -0.4% v 0.7%e
(KR) North Korea said to have built new missiles after summit with Trump - press
*(JP) JAPAN JUN JOBLESS RATE: 2.4% V 2.3%E; (first rise since Feb)
005930.KR Reports final Q2 (KRW) Net 11.0T v 11.1Te, Op 14.9T v 14.8T prelim, Rev 58.5T v 58.0T prelim
*(CN) CHINA JULY OFFICIAL GOVT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.2 V 51.3E (lowest since Feb)

TUES 7/31
STAN.UK Reports H1 Pretax $2.35B v $2.30Be, Adj Op Rev $7.65B v $7.69Be
CSGN.CH Reports Q2 (CHF) Net 647M v 694M y/y, adj Pretax 1.05B v 1.06Be, Rev 5.60B v 5.35Be
SAN.FR Reports Q2 Business EPS €1.25 v €1.20e, Business Net €1.56B v €1.70B y/y, Rev €8.18B v €8.38Be
BP.UK Reports Q2 Adj Net (underlying RC profit) $2.82B v $2.66Be, Total Rev $76.9B v $57.4B y/y
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Introduced forward guidance to increase commitment on price target; stronger framework aimed at hitting the 2% price target asap - post rate decision press conference
*(DE) GERMANY JULY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -6K V -10KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.2% V 5.2%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E
*(CN) US AND CHINA REPORTEDLY TO MEET TO RESTART TALKS REGARDING TRADE - press
FB (US) Facebook has identified a coordinated political influence campaign on its platform, using fake accounts and pages seeking to influence the 2018 US election - NYT
(US) Nevada reports Jun casino gaming Rev $933.0M, +4.2% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $523.9M, +5.4% y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed forecasts initial Q3 GDP growth at 4.7%
AAPL Reports Q3 $2.34 v $2.17e, Rev $53B v $52.4Be
BIDU Reports Q2 $3.18 v $2.63e, Rev $3.93B v $4.01Be

WEDS 8/1
(HK) Macau July Gaming Rev MOP25.3B v MOP22.5B prior, Y/Y: 10.3% v 11.5%e (3rd consecutive miss on estimates)
MT.NL Reports Q2 $1.84 v $1.30 y/y, EBITDA $3.07B v $2.85Be, Rev $20.0B v $19.9Be
BA.UK Reports H1 Underlying EPS 14.8p v 17.9p y/y, EBITA £874M v £848Me, Rev £8.82B v £8.83Be
RIO.AU Reports H1 Underlying Net $4.42B v $4.6Be; underlying EBITDA $9.2B v $9.6Be; Rev $19.9B v $21.1Be; Adds $1.0B to share buyback program
VOW3.DE Reports Q2 adj Net €3.31B v €3.10B y/y, Op €5.58B v €4.97Be, Rev €61.1B v €62.1Be
*(IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) RAISES REPURCHASE RATE BY 25BPS TO 6.50%; AS EXPECTED
CG To purchase 19.9% of reinsurer DSA from AIG and enter into a strategic asset management relationship with DSA Re
(US) JULY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +219K V +186KE; Zandi sees no tariff impact "yet"
(US) Conference Board July Total online job ads 4.65M v 4.48M m/m v 4.61M y/y; New ads 1.89M v 1.90M m/m v 1.90M y/y
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +3.8M V -2ME; GASOLINE: -2.5M V -2ME; DISTILLATE: +3.0M V +0.5ME
Fidelity announces plans to reduce mutual fund fees
(TR) US reportedly readying list of economic sanctions against Turkey over detained US pastor - press
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q3 GDP forecast to 5.0% from 4.7% prior
(US) Reportedly Trump administration will confirm taking $200B China tariffs rate up to 25% later today - press
ESRX Icahn reportedly has sizable Cigna stake and is likely to urge shareholders to vote against proposed Express Scripts takeover - press
TSLA Reports Q2 -$3.06 v -$2.76e, Rev $4.0B v $3.79Be
*(BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) LEAVES SELIC TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50%; AS EXPECTED

THUR 8/2
GLE.FR Reports Q2 adj Net €1.16B v €1.0Be, Op €1.88B v €1.29B y/y, Rev €6.45B v €6.16Be
SIE.DE Reports Q3 Net €1.21B v €1.41B y/y, Industrial Business profit €2.21B v €2.27Be, Rev €20.5B v €20.8Be; affirms FY outlook
GAM.CH Fund boards suspend dealing in unconstrained/absolute return bond funds; notes high level of redemptions
*(UK) BOE RAISES INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED (2nd hike over the past decade)
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT (QIR)
(UK) BOE Gov Carney:Need a modest tightening of monetary policy; reiterates that limited and gradual hike will be needed - post rate decision press conference
AAPL Tests $207.04, becomes first publicly listed US company valued at $1 trillion

FRI 8/3
ACA.FR Reports Q2 Net €1.44B v €1.02Be; Rev €8.40B v €7.94B y/y
RBS.UK Reports Q2 Net £96M v £792M y/y, adj Op £613M v £1.24B y/y, Rev £3.40B v £3.30B y/y
*(UK) JULY SERVICES PMI: 53.5 V 54.7E (24th month of expansion)
(CN) China PBoC adjusts the Reserve Requirement on FX Forwards trading from 0% (nil) to 20%
*(CN) CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY (MOFCOM) RELEASES PROPOSED RETALIATION TO US TARIFF THREAT; to levy differentiated tariffs (import tax) on ~$60B in US goods
*(US) JULY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +157K V +193KE
(CN) White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: tariff response from China today is not tit-for-tat; China should not underestimate Pres Trump on trade policy
*(US) JULY FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 56.0 V 56.2E
*(US) JULY ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 55.7 V 58.6E
(CN) China to propose 25% tariff on US LNG - press
(CN) China proposed 25% tariff list includes US copper ore and concentrate, lithium carbonate
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 4.4% from 5.0% prior


Saturday, July 28, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive featured on FB, FCAU 
Cover story: Barron’s partnered with Backend Benchmarking to publish the first ranking of major robo-advisor firms that uses both performance data and qualitative metrics like ease of use and financial-planning capabilities; The top ten firms are Vanguard, Betterment, SigFig, E*Trade, Schwab, Wealthfront, WiseBanyan, Personal Capital, FutureAdvisor, and Acorns. 

Features: 1) The container-leasing business is in the second year of a four-to-five year cycle, with growth coming from replacement containers and increased global shipping volume, says Cowen’s Helane Becker; 2) Positive on FB: Shares of the social site would seem to be a bargain after last week’s drop, especially because the company is a rarity: a megacap with a reasonable valuation whose revenues have 25% upside next year; 3) Positive on FCAU: Despite the death of CEO Sergio Marchionne and mixed quarterly results, analysts expect the automaker to grow earnings faster than U.S. rivals, and shares are 75% cheaper than the broad S&P 500 index; 4) Few companies say they have seen positive effects from Donald Trump’s tariffs, while many cite none, or describe only modest negatives—though it’s ultimately too early to tell what the overall results will be. 

Tech Trader: Most tech companies that remain in their specialized niches will have a hard time adapting to the changing landscape—rather than bending the world according to their vision, as AMZN has done, they remain focused simply on avoiding problems. 

Trader: “Tariffs remain a central concern and an important driver of economic and market action, and they probably affected Q2 GDP by causing exporters to speed up deliveries, particularly of farm products, ahead of the new duties”; A majority of active fund managers beat their benchmarks last year, allowing them to reverse the cash outflows they’ve suffered amid the growth in passive investing; Cautious on LLY: The key question for investors is whether the pharma company’s superior growth is baked into the stock price. 

Interview: Sarat Sethi and Ned Dewees, managing partners at Douglas C. Lane & Associates, are positive on the U.S. economy and consumer, and the potential of big data; Their portfolios don’t include AMZN or NFLX (holdings: ILMN, IAC, MSFT, ORCL, FRC, XPO). Profile: Will Muggia, manager of the Touchstone Mid Cap Growth fund, uses a model based on analyst track records that closely monitors each analyst’s contribution to portfolio risk relative to the benchmark (top 10 holdings: WP, PXD, FIS, FLT, JBHT, TRU, TIF, COO, TDY, AME). 

European Trader: Positive on Charter Court Financial Services Group, OneSavings Bank: Firms are the top choices for investors in the British challenger bank sector, says Goodbody analyst John Cronin. 

Emerging Markets: Trade wars and a strong dollar aren’t hitting all emerging markets: Latin America is on a tear, with ETFs covering Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina up during the past month. 

Commodities: Investors shouldn’t expect gold prices to rebound anytime soon “because the strength of the U.S. dollar will keep a lid on any rally and at the very least could push prices for the metal down further.” 

Streetwise: The ongoing closure of newspapers will affect investors because without reporters there will be less information available upon which to base decisions.

FANG's Flounder, Trump and Tusk Signal Détente; US Economic Engine Purrs

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: FANG's Flounder, Trump and Tusk Signal Détente; US Economic Engine Purrs
Fri, 27 Jul 2018 16:05 PM EST

US stocks spent the better part of the week moving higher, but investors looked away from the NASDAQ and high beta names in particular for leadership. As the Q2 earnings season ramped up, there were some notable disappointments among key tech firms, leading to some market rotation. Despite generally better than expected results, many managements outside of tech also noted that rising raw material costs and stiffening FX headwinds have resulted in a challenging environment and conservative guidance. For the week the S&P500 gained 0.6%, the DJIA added 1.6%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.1%.

The economic data largely surpassed expectations, with the exception of perhaps Friday’s first look at Q2 GDP. Nevertheless, the US economy saw growth that surpassed 4% in Q2 which the Administration was quick to tout as a direct result of the President’s policies. The July Richmond Fed index beat expectations suggesting the growth momentum has continued in to Q3, while European data showed some improving trends as well. Trade remained a key topic with the Chinese Yuan plumbing fresh lows early on, leading to another salvo of tough rhetoric on both sides. Wednesday saw President Trump and the EU President Juncker announce concessions had been reached to ease trade tensions – including Europe expressing a willingness to lower certain industrial tariffs – while formal negotiations continue in good faith.

Corporate news this week was mostly dominated by the aforementioned avalanche of earnings, notably in the FANG space. Alphabet rallied on a bottom-line beat and Amazon lifted after surpassing profit expectations, but Twitter slid on a drop in monthly active users and Facebook took a record hit to its market cap after disclosing its total revenue growth rate is expected to decelerate in the second half as expenses continue to mount. Many companies said they saw effects from rising input prices and shipping costs this quarter, including Whirlpool, Kimberly Clark, GM, Fiat, Coca-Cola, Packaging Corp, and USG. Qualcomm rose and NXP fell after Chinese regulators scuttled their merger agreement, as largely anticipated. Intel tumbled on concerns about its slow rollout of next-gen chips. McDonald’s shares spilled after it missed same-store sales expectations, Chipotle rallied on better than expected results, and the board at Papa John’s launched a “poison pill” effort to block former CEO John Schnatter from gaining control of the company. A report of Friday alleged sexual misconduct by Les Moonves, putting the future of the CBS CEO in question as he continues to battle with Shari Redstone over the fate of the company.


SUN JULY 22
(CN) CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY502B IN 1-YEAR MEDIUM-TERM LENDING FACILITY (MLF) V CNY188.5B PRIOR AT 3.30% V 3.30% PRIOR (2nd MLF operation in July)

MON JULY 23
CWK Files to sell 45M IPO shares between $16.00 and $18.00 on the NYSE - filing
ITW Reports Q2 $1.97 v $1.98e, Rev $3.83B v $3.85Be
AMZN Pres Trump again criticizes Washington Post and Amazon's deal shipping deal with USPS; speculates that antitrust case should be brought against Amazon
GOOGL Reports Q2 $11.75** (Ex fines) v $8.90 y/y, Rev $26.2B (ex $6.4B TAC) v $25.6Be
WHR Reports Q2 $3.20 v $3.63e, Rev $5.14B v $5.22Be

TUES JULY 24
UBSG.CH Reports Q2 (CHF) Net 1.28B v 1.09Be, adj Pretax 1.81B v 1.72Be, Rev 7.55B v 7.27B y/y
(FR) FRANCE JULY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 106 V 107E
(FR) FRANCE JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.1 V 52.5E (22nd month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.1 V 54.7E (60th month of expansion)
(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES ONE-WEEK REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 17.75%; NOT EXPECTED
LMT Reports Q2 $4.05 v $3.89e, Rev $13.4B v $12.7Be
KMB Reports Q2 $1.59 adj v $1.60e, Rev $4.60B v $4.63Be
(UK) UK Brexit Department Document (White Paper details): Will be necessary to ensure EU laws continue to apply to Britain during Post-Brexit transition period; new Brexit laws will modify parts of the act to reflect the departure of the UK
(UK) PM May: I will take personal control of the Brexit negotiations
*(US) JULY PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.5 V 55.1E
*(US) JULY RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 20 V 18E
TXN Reports Q2 $1.40 v $1.33e, Rev $4.0B v $3.95Be

WEDS JULY 25
DBK.DE Reports Q2 Net €401M v €400M prelim, Pretax €700M v €700M prelim, Rev €6.6B v €6.6B prelim
VOD.UK Reports Q1 group Rev €10.9B* v €11.5B y/y
(DE) GERMANY JULY IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 101.7 V 101.5E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 105.3 V 104.9E
UPS Reports Q2 $1.94 v $1.92e, Rev $17.5B v $17.2Be
BA Reports Q2 $3.33 v $3.24e, Rev $24.3B v $24.0Be
FCX Reports Q2 $0.58 v $0.54e, Rev $5.17B v $4.82Be
(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 631K V 668KE
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -6.2M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -2.3M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: -0.1M V +1ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending July 21st: 553K, +4.9% y/y
(US) President Trump reportedly has received concessions from Europe to avert trade war; Europe agrees to lower industrial tariffs - press
FB Reports Q2 $1.74 v $1.75e, Rev $13.2B v $13.4Be
V Reports Q3 $1.20 v $1.09e, Rev $5.20B v $5.08Be
F Reports Q2 $0.27 v $0.34e, Rev $38.9B v $35.5Be
(US) President Trump: US and EU will be winners, have agreed to work together toward zero tariffs on non-auto industrial goods - press conf with EU's Juncker
(KR) Sec of State Pompeo: North Korea is continuing to produce nuclear material; we want denuclearization to occur by end of 2020 - Senate testimony
FB Total revenue growth rate expected to continue to decelerate in H2 2018, down in high single digits during Q3 and Q4 - earnings call comments
000660.KR Reports Q2 (KRW) Net 4.33T v 3.4Te; Op 5.57T v 5.3Te; Rev 10.37T v 10.2Te

THURS JULY 26
AIR.FR Reports H1 Net €496M v €1.1B y/y, adj EBIT €1.16B v €988Me, Rev €25.0B v €25.2B y/y
ROG.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Core EPS 9.84 v 8.23 y/y, Core operating 11.2B v 10.1B y/y, Rev 28.1B v 27.5Be
NOKIA.FI Reports Q2 adj €0.03 v €0.08 y/y, adj Op €334M v €574M y/y, Rev €5.31B v €5.6B y/y
ABI.BE Reports Q2 $1.10 v $1.05e, Adj EBITDA $5.57B v $5.49Be, Rev $14.0B v $13.9Be
ORA.FR Reports Q2 EBITDA €3.38B v €3.28B y/y, Rev €10.2B v €10.0B y/y
RDSA.NL Reports Q2 basic CCS EPS $0.56 v $0.71e, adj Net $6.02B v $1.55B y/y, Rev $96.7B v $72.1B y/y
AZN.UK Reports Q2 Core EPS $0.69 v $0.71e, Rev $5.16B v $4.99Be
DGE.UK Reports FY18 EPS 118.6p v 108.5p y/y, EBIT £3.82B v £3.77Be, Rev £12.2B v £12.1B y/y; approves buyback program up to £2.0B (~2% of market cap)
066570.KR Reports final Q2 (KRW) Net 327B v 403Be; Op 771B v 771B prelim; Rev 15.0T v 15.02T prelim
(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) JUN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 1.0% V 3.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.4% V 0.5%E
(UK) EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier: EU will not delegate the application of its customs policy to a non-member (rules out allowing the UK to collect customs duties on its behalf); rejects UK white paper proposal on customs - press conf comments
CA.FR Reports Q2 Rev €20.8B v €21.8B y/y
(US) White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: Number on US GDP growth due on Friday 'will be big'
AMZN Reports Q2 $5.07 v $2.49e, Rev $52.9B v $53.4Be
CMG Reports Q2 $2.87 v $2.78e, Rev $1.30B v $1.26Be
SEC rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF proposal, says it does not met regulatory standards - CNBC
BHP.AU Announces sale of US onshore (shale) assets to unit of BP for base consideration of $10.8B in cash; expected to close by the end of Oct 2018

FRI JULY 27
BAS.DE Reports Q2 Adj Net €1.48B v €1.50B y/y, EBIT €2.36B v €2.42Be, Rev €16.8B v €16.6Be
(FR) FRANCE Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.9%
MRK Reports Q2 $1.06 v $1.03e, Rev $10.5B v $10.3Be
(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 3.0% V 2.3%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 2.0% V 2.2%E
(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 4.1% V 4.2%E (fastest pace since 2014); PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.0% V 3.0%E
CBS CEO Les Moonves said to be accused of sexual misconduct in upcoming New Yorker piece by reporter Ronan Farrow - press