Asset inflation questions arise again as US and EU pour on more stimulus

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sset inflation questions arise again as US and EU pour on more stimulus

2021-03-12T16:06:34.293

The S&P 500, Dow and German DAX all reached new high water marks this week which came alongside of continued signs of exorbitant asset appreciation. Bitcoin neared 60K for the first time while another litany NFT auctions saw insatiable investor demand including a digital piece of art from Beeple that fetched nearly $70M. Gamestop surged back to $300 while other meme stocks saw wild swings, once again unaccompanied by any fundamental news. On Monday, Appaloosa’s David Tepper stoked risk appetite and prodded markets higher when he noted he expected the recent rise in rates to take a breather here, and thus was becoming more bullish on stocks.

Reopening economies and fiscal stimulus clearly remained front and center in many investors’ minds as they grappled with how to position ahead of potential knock-on effects, which many worry will generate an inflation surge. Global bond yields did moderate during a good portion of the week, helped by news that the ECB would begin purchasing bonds through its PEPP program at a significantly faster clip over the next quarter, and US Treasury sales that were met with only modest demand. Weak Q4 growth data for Europe illustrated the continent’s struggle to shake off the pandemic impacts, even as most of Italy prepares to go into a new lockdown. Meanwhile, Democrats in Washington pushed through President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus plan with only minor changes, highlighted by $1,400 checks going out to lower and middle income people. By Friday value stocks retained a leadership position while emerging markets and growth oriented sectors lagged. The US 10-year broke to a new 1-year high at 1.63% and the spread to the 2-year approached 150 bps for the first time since 2015. For the week, the DJIA surged 4.1%, the S&P added 2.6%, and the Nasdaq rebounded 3.1%.

In corporate news for this week, Oracle shares dipped following its Q3 earnings, after the software giant posted a beat on top and bottom line but issued softer guidance than anticipated. Disney announced its Disney+ streaming service has reached over 100M global paid subscribers after just 16 months. Private equity firm Apollo announced it would re-merge back with Athene in an $11B all-stock transaction in order to boost investor confidence in the life insurance giant in which it already owns a 35% stake. PayPal announced plans to acquire Curv, a crypto firm which specializes in security infrastructure for digital assets. AerCap confirmed it would combine with GE Capital Aviation Services as GE sheds debts and moves to fold the remainder of its GE Capital unit into its corporate operations. A news report noted that Salesforce is said to be grooming its COO Taylor to eventually take over the CEO role from Marc Benioff, though no precise timeline was given. Netflix is said to be piloting a crackdown on password-sharing among different households in a move that could shake up shared accounts among family and friends throughout the streaming industry.


SUN 3/7
(CN) Summary of China Fourth Session of 13th National People's Congress (NPC) sets 2021 GDP target of more than 6%, CPI ~3%, outlines 14th 5 year plan for 2021-2025

MON 3/8
(US) Appaloosa's David Tepper: Getting bullish on US stocks - CNBC
(US) Feb NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: expected changes in gas prices and rents both rise; One year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.1% in Feb vs 3.0% in Jan (highest since Jan 2014)

TUES 3/9
DPW.DE Reports final Q4 Net €1.30B v €858M y/y, EBIT €1.97B v €1.98B prelim, Rev €19.1B v €19.1B prelim
CON.DE Reports prelim FY20 Rev €37.7B v €37.6Be; No dividend proposal for 2021
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.7% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: -4.9% V -5.0%E
(US) President Biden said to nominate Lina Khan to FTC - Politico
IPOE Sofi to acquire national charter bank Golden Pacific Bancorp for $2.55/shr valued at $22.3M
COIN Said to price IPO between $350-375/shr during Nasdaq's private auction implying $90-100B valuation - press
(EU) EU reportedly seeking to double share of world microchip market by 2030 for digital independence
DIS CEO: Disney+ has hit over 100M global paid subscribers after just 16 months - AGM comments
V Reports Feb US payments +9% y/y

WEDS 3/10
GE Affirms FY21 $0.15-0.25 v $0.24e, Industrial FCF $2.5-4.5B**; Board will recommend that shareholders approve a reverse stock split at a ratio of 1-for-8, effective May 4th
AER Confirms to acquire GE Capital Aviation Services in cash and stock deal valued at >$30B
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +13.8M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -11.9M V -3ME; DISTILLATE: -5.5M V -3.5ME
*(US) TREASURY'S $38B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.523%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.38 V 2.47 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS
*(US) FEB MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$310.9B V -$305.0BE
(US) House passes the $1.9T Covid relief bill
ORCL Reports Q3 $1.16 v $1.11e, Rev $10.1B v $10.1Be; Increases share buyback by $20B (9.4% of market cap), raises dividend 33% to $0.32 from $0.24
RBLX IPO direct listing opens for trade at $64.50

THURS 3/11
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Leaves PEPP envelope's size unchanged, but pace will be significantly faster over next quarter
(EU) European Core and peripheral yields lower as ECB pledged to significantly pick up pace of PEPP purchases in next quarter
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 712K V 725KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.14M V 4.20ME
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Uncertainty remains in near term but economy to improve over course of 2021- Prepared Remarks
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min): Public finances much more sensitive to interest rate changes than they used to be
VZ Reportedly has received $109B in orders for its spectrum bond sale - press
*(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.295%; BID TO COVER 2.28 V 2.47 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
TMUS Sees potential shareholder buybacks of up to $60B in 2023-2025; Raises EBITDA guidance; Targets cumulative FCF ~$65B through 2025 - investor day slides
NFLX Reportedly piloting a crackdown on password-sharing - tech blog
DOCU Reports Q4 $0.37 v $0.22e, Rev $430.9M v $407Me
(CN) US puts new limits on licenses for some suppliers to Huawei; informs suppliers that Huawei licenses are not valid for 5G use - financial press

FRI 3/12
DBK.DE Guides FY21 Rev 'to be marginally lower' y/y
700.HK Reportedly Tencent is facing broad China clampdown on fintech and deals - press
AT&T Affirms FY21 Adj EPS stable y/y, Rev +1% range; Raises FY25 120-150M HBO Max/HBO subscribers (prior 75-90M)
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +259.2K V +75.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.2% V 9.2%E
(EU) Reportedly EU Commission is in intensive dialogue with member states over recovery fund plans; most member state recovery fund plans are currently deemed as inadequate – press
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 83.0 V 78.5E (highest since Mar 2020)

Continued recovery optimism energizes rates and wobbles stocks

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Weekly Market Update: Continued recovery optimism energizes rates and wobbles stocks

2021-03-05T16:06:24.233

Stock market volatility continued this week alongside rising interest rates. Adding to the consternation surrounding rising rates and its potential signal on inflation, crude oil prices surged 10% in the back half of the week, to over one-year highs, after OPEC decided against raising production in any meaningful way. The US 10-year yield traded back above 1.5% and rising inflation expectations were evident when the 5-year TIPS breakeven topped 2.5% for the first time since 2008. Speculative growth, in particular small caps, bore the brunt of a significant drawdown in equity markets, while value stocks performed much better, led by a resurgent energy complex.

Bond yields surged on Thursday after Fed Chairman Powell failed to signal that the recent jump in market rates was worrisome enough to force to central bank to adjust asset purchase in an attempt to manipulate rates lower. Stocks wobbled noticeably after he repeated a highly dovish mantra that the Fed will remain patient and is nowhere near reaching the policy goals that are the prerequisites for beginning the process of reversing accommodative policy. The stronger than expected February employment report on Friday was decidedly positive, thanks in large part to a rebound of 355K jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector. The jobs numbers capped of a week of generally strong economic reports and caused some to question the timing and size of Democrats $1.9B fiscal stimulus package which remained on track to get through the Senate this weekend. The US dollar tracked to its highest levels since November and gold prices dipped below $1,700 for the first time in nearly a year. For the week, the S&P eked out a 0.8% gain, the DJIA rose 1.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.

In corporate news this week, big box retailer Target handily beat expectations but is still unable to provide guidance due to uncertainty over the pandemic. Walmart updated its 10-year investment plan, announcing it would spend $350B over the next decade to support 750K new jobs related to US-made and assembled items. In the tech sector Hewlett Packard Enterprise beat expectations and raised guidance, diminishing the impact of the punishing sell off that hit the rest of the stock market. Micron also held up relatively well as it raised Q2 guidance substantially. Google is trying to get ahead of the curve on a coming reckoning on the use of personal data -- the tech giant is reportedly planning to stop using ad tools that track users across websites in 2022, and will stop selling ads based on individuals' browsing history. Amgen announced it will acquire cancer drug developer Five Prime Therapeutics in a $1.9B all-cash deal.


SUN 2/28
*(CN) CHINA FEB MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.6 V 51.0E (12th month of expansion)
(HK) Macau Feb Casino Rev (MOP): 7.3B v 8.0B prior; Y/Y: +135.6% v 145%e

MON 3/1
*(IT) ITALY FEB MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.9 V 56.8E (8th month of expansion and highest since Jan 2018)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.7 V 60.6E (confirms 8th month of expansion and highest since Jan 2018)
*(US) FEB FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.6 V 58.5E (lowest since Dec 2020)
*(US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 60.8 V 58.6E; PRICES PAID: 86.0 V 80.0E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q1 GDP to 10.0% from 8.8%
SQ Starts Banking, Loan operations after obtaining FDIC approvals in Utah
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.10%, AS EXPECTED; MAINTAINS 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET AT 0.10%; MAINTAINS A$100B BOND BUYING PROGRAM

TUES 3/2
(DE) GERMANY FEB NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +9.0K V -10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMANT RATE: 6.0% V 6.0%E
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y:1.1% V 1.1%E
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia will respond to any new US sanctions
TGT Reports Q4 $2.67 v $2.54e, Rev $28.3B v $27.5Be; Not providing any guidance
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +15% v +3.0% prior
HPE Reports Q1 $0.52 v $0.40e, Rev $6.83B v $6.78Be
(HK) Macau casinos will no longer require nucleic acid test certificate to enter, effective Midnight March 3rd

WED 3/3
*(IT) ITALY FEB SERVICES PMI: 48.8 V 45.7E (7th month of contraction)
*(FR) FRANCE FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.6 V 43.6E (confirms 6th straight contraction)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.7 V 45.9E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.7 V 44.7E (confirms 6th straight contraction)
*(UK) FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 49.5 V 49.7E (confirms 4th straight contraction)
*(EU) ECB SAID TO SEE NO NEED FOR DRASTIC ACTION TO CURB BOND YIELDS - financial press
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min) Budget speech: Damage to the economy has been acute; will do whatever it takes
*(US) FEB ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +117K V +205KE
GOOGL Reportedly plans to stop using or investing in ad tools which track users across websites in 2022; will stop selling ads based on individuals' browsing history - press
MU Raises Q2 $0.93-0.98 v $0.72e, Rev $6.2-6.25B v $5.83Be, gross margin 32-33% (prior $0.68-0.82, Rev $5.6-6.0B, gross margin 30-32%)
*(US) FEB ISM SERVICES INDEX: 55.3 V 58.7E (lowest reading since May 2020)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +21.6M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -13.6M V -2ME; DISTILLATE: -9.7M V -3ME
WMT Plans to spend $350B over 10 years to support 750K new jobs related to US-made and US-assembled items
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min): We have to get borrowing and debt under control - press conf

THUR 3/4
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 8.3%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: -5.9% V -1.4%E; Y/Y: -6.4% V -1.2%E (largest declines since last April)
AAPL Reportedly UK CMA investigates Apple over suspected anti-competitive behavior - press
FPRX To be acquired by Amgen for $38.00/shr in cash valued at $1.9B
FAST Reports Feb net sales $437.7M, +1.5% y/y
*(US) Q4 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -4.2% V -4.7%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 6.0% V 6.6%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 745K V 750KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.30M V 4.30ME
OPEC+ decides it will not hike output by 500K in April, according to delegate source; Russia and Kazakhstan will receive exemption from OPEC+ supply agreement
(US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues 30-year budget projections: forecasts annual GDP growth 1.8% over next 30 years (prior: 1.6%)

FRI 3/5
(US) FEB CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +379K V +200KE
(US) FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.2% V 6.3%E
(IN) India said to threaten to jail some Facebook and Twitter employees in attempt to quash political protests - press
US and EU have reached an agreement to suspend tariffs on Boeing-Airbus for 4 months
(US) Fed’s Bullard (non-voter): We have the right policy for this situation: do not see an Operation Twist as an option right now

Rates continue rising in anticipation of economic recovery, spurring inflation jitters

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Weekly Market Update: Rates continue rising in anticipation of economic recovery, spurring inflation jitters

2021-02-26T16:15:09.487

Global equity markets hit a notable rough patch this week as investors’ uneasiness with rising interest rates came to the forefront. The VIX volatility index surged back to 30 as growth stocks in particular took a beating, and the S&P tested its 50-day moving average for the first time in a month. Adding to the consternation was another eye-popping move in the Reddit stocks, led by GameStop, once again on little if any apparent news. Economic data came in generally better than expectations, while various vaccine developments remained encouraging, which supported a narrative growth is poised to surge later this year. On Thursday the Treasury’s 7-year note auction saw anemic demand despite the discount participants enjoyed, exacerbating the tail wind for rising rates. The US 10-year yield briefly spiked to 1.6% before holding ground at 1.5% which is also roughly the dividend yield of the S&P 500, yet still below where it traded less than year ago heading into the pandemic. A chorus of Fed officials were eager to downplay the move up in Treasury yields and any associated concerns about inflation. Nevertheless debates surrounding the likely effects of the incoming US fiscal stimulus and central bank policies as they relate to the neutral level of real interest rates raged on Wall Street. Gold prices slipped to the lowest levels since last summer while WTI crude pushed further above $60/barrel, retracing levels not seen in about a year. For the week, the S&P lost 2.5%, the DJIA fell 1.8%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 4.9%.

In corporate news this week, Home Depot shares jumped after reporting Q4 top and bottom line beats, as comp sales surged 25%. Toll Brothers quarterly results came in above already high analyst expectations, and the homebuilder said it expects very strong market conditions to continue for the "foreseeable future.” Nvidia EPS and Rev topped estimates again, with the chipmaker guiding well above consensus, though shares fell amid a broad market sell off on Thursday. Macy’s holiday sales beat estimates with a look to build momentum in the back half of 2021. Twitter announced ahead of its analyst day a new target to double its annual revenue from $3.7B in FY20 to $7.5B or more by 2023. Facebook reversed its ban on providing news content in Australia, striking a deal to pay three news publishers as the government passed an amended version of its digital news payment law. AT&T announced plans to spin off its DirecTV, AT&T TV, and U-verse video services into a $16B separate entity as part of a deal with private equity firm TPG. Goodyear said it would acquire rival Cooper Tires in a $2.8B cash and stock deal, merging two of the largest remaining American-owned tire manufacturers. AMC will reopen all of its 13 theaters in NYC beginning March 5th after Governor Cuomo loosened COVID restrictions in the city. Beyond Meat announced it has inked long-term deals with McDonald's and YUM Brands, helping to shore up the plant-based foodmaker’s future despite posting a wider loss in Q4 than anticipated.


MON 2/22
5.HK Reports FY20 Adj pretax $12.1B v $22.1B y/y, Adj Rev $50.4B v $54.9B y/y; resumes interim dividend at $0.15/shr, no stock buybacks in near term
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: 42K have registered for COVID vaccine as of 9AM
MRNA President Hoge: FDA has given positive feedback on proposal that may allow up to 15 doses to be drawn from each vial - press citing testimony
CCIV Confirms Lucid Motors to go public in merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV; transaction valued at $11.8B
EZJ.UK Says travel bookings surge as UK announces reopening plan; summer flight bookings up 337% w/w and holiday bookings up 630% - press
AMC To reopen all 13 of our theaters in New York City beginning March 5th
NY Gov Cuomo confirms movie theaters in New York City can reopen at 25% capacity beginning March 15th - press
(US) NJ Gov Murphy confirms signing Cannabis legislation for state into law as expected
*(US) FEB DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 17.2 V 8.5E
*(US) JAN LEADING INDEX: 0.5% V 0.4%E
PFPT Enters into definitive agreement to acquire data loss protection managed services provider InteliSecure for $62.5M in cash
PENN Secures sports betting and online casino market access in New York through strategic partnership with Rivers Casino
BHVN BHV-1200, A Multimodal Antibody Therapy Enhancer (MATE), Demonstrates Effective Neutralization Of Multiple Strains Of COVID-19
CTB To be acquired by Goodyear at $54.36/shr in $2.8B in cash and shares in deal valued at $2.5B
*(DE) GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 92.4 V 90.5E

TUES 2/23
880.HK Reports FY20 (HK$) Net -3.03B v +3.2B y/y, adj EBITDA -2.1B v +4.2B y/y; Rev 7.3B v 33.2B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: % V 1.4%E
HD Reports Q4 $2.74 adj v $2.61e, Rev $32.3B v $30.7Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 10% to $1.65 from $1.50 (indicated yield 2.39%)
M Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.19e, Rev $6.78B v $6.55Be; Repaid ~$530M of debt in January 2021 at maturity; Sees momentum building in back half of 2021
USAP Announces base price increase of 3-10% on all products, effective next week
GOOGL Google partners with Intel to accelerate cloud-native 5G - press
*(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 16E
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 91.3 V 90.0E
(US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index: +3.9 v -17.5 prior
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer: senators will offer a bill to strengthen the tech sector and limit Beijing's unfair practices; Looking at funding for semiconductor program in the US
TOL Reports Q1 $0.76 v $0.49e, Rev $1.56B v $1.37Be; Sees very strong mkt conditions to continue for "foreseeable future"
NKE Tiger Woods involved in a serious car accident; car sustained 'major damage'; Woods was extricated from wreck with 'jaws of life' and has been transported to local hospital - LA County Sheriff's Department
(HK) Hong Kong confirms increase to stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.13% - 2021/22 budget (*8Note: 1st increase since 1993)

WEDS 2/24
*(DE) GERMANY Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: -3.7% V -3.9%E
EXC To separate Utility and Competitive Energy Businesses Into two Industry-Leading Companies
(ZA) South Africa Fin Min Mboweni 2021/22 budget presentation: Abandon plans to raise ZAR40B in extra taxes
JNJ Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) February 26, 2021 Meeting Briefing Document Posted for review related to Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of Janssen's Ad26.COV2.S, investigational single-shot COVID-19 vaccine candidate
*(US) JAN NEW HOME SALES: 923K V 856KE
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +1.3M V -5ME; GASOLINE: +0.0M V -3ME; DISTILLATE: -5.0M V -4.5ME
(US) National Retail Federation (NRF): sees fastest economic growth in two decades
27.HK Reports FY20 (HK$) Net -3.8B v +13.3B y/y; adj EBITDA -1.0B v +16.5B y/y; Rev 12.88B v 51.9B y/y

THURS 2/25
BA.UK Reports FY20 adj EPS 46.8p v 50.8p, adj EBITA £2.13B v £2.12B, Rev £20.9B v £20.1B y/y
(IN) India to implement rules for social media, digital media and streaming operations in 3 months time; calls need for level playing field
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 93.4 V 92.1E
V Intuit files suit against Visa, MA over "unlawful" price fixing - blog
BBY Reports Q4 $3.48 v $3.47e, Rev $16.9B v $17.2Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 27.3% to $0.70 from $0.55 (indicated yield 2.47%); Approves new $5.0B share buyback
*(US) JAN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 3.4% V 1.1%E; DURABLE GOODS (EX-TRANSPORTATION: 1.4% V 0.7%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 730K V 825KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.42M V 4.46ME
*(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.1% V 2.0%E; CORE PCE 1.4% V 1.4%E
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $761.8M, -27% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $321.5M, -44% y/y
*(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -2.8% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 8.2% V 22.8% PRIOR
*(US) TREASURY $62B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 1.195%; BID-TO-COVER: 2.04 V 2.30 PRIOR
(US) 10-year note yield jumps above S&P div yield of 1.5% after very poor 7-year auction
BYND Announces Strategic Global Agreement with McDonald’s; preferred supplier for the patty in the McPlant
BYND Announces Global Strategic Partnership with Yum! Brands to Offer Signature Plant-Based Menu Items
PFE Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Allows More Flexible Storage, Transportation Conditions for Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine; FDA allowing Undiluted Frozen Vials of Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine to be Transported and Stored at Conventional Temperatures Commonly Found in Pharmaceutical Freezers for Up to Two Weeks
T AT&T & TPG to form new entity to operate AT&T’s U.S. video unit, consisting of the DIRECTV, AT&T TV and U-verse video services
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) TO BUY UP TO A$3.0B IN GOVT SECURITIES TO DEFEND 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET (Unscheduled operation)
*(US) SENATE PARLIMENTARIAN: MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE TO $15/HR RULED OUT OF ORDER FOR CORONAVIRUS STIMULUS

FRI 2/26
VOW3.DE Reports FY20 Net €8.82B v €13.4B y/y, adj Op €10.6B v €10B prelim, Rev €222.9B v €221.6Be
*(US) JAN PERSONAL INCOME: 10.0% V 9.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 2.4% V 2.5%E
*(US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
(US) FEB FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 76.8 V 76.5E
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q1 forecast to 8.7% from 8.3%
(SA) US issues report on killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi; assesses that Saudi Arabia Prince MBS "approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill journalist Khashoggi"

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 Stocks and bond yield rise as inflation signals remain dormant

2021-02-12T16:12:35.747

Stocks hovered in record territory this week, buoyed by movement toward a fresh round of stimulus spending, strong corporate earnings and apparent progress in the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines. With quarterly results in from about three-quarters of S&P 500 companies, more than 80% have surpassed estimates and many management teams have signaled they have enough clarity to begin providing forecasts for the new fiscal year. Wednesday’s CPI figures were once again softer than expected but did little to quell the markets’ rising inflation expectations. Crude oil prices continued to rise along with interest rates helped by the belief the Biden administration will remain aggressive in delivering on campaign promises. WTI crude hit a one-year high just under $60/bbl, while the 30-year bond yield edged above 2.00% for the first time in a year. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed will not even entertain the idea of withdrawing monetary policy support until the pandemic is over and that he does not expect any sustained inflation gains in the near term. For the week, the S&P gained 1.2%, the DJIA was up 1%, and the Nasdaq added 1.7%.

In corporate news this week, Disney posted beats on its Q1 top and bottom lines as it continues to exceed expectations for its streaming service subscriber numbers. Nucor issued some guidance, noting it is encouraged by ‘positive economic trends and robust demand’ that it is seeing across its markets. Twitter shares continued their rise back toward 2013 highs as ad sales boosted Q4 revenue to a new record level. GM said it would have to extend production cuts through mid-March at three North American plants due to global semiconductor shortages, which it foresees impacting its FY21 outlook. Separately Ford noted that it expects some relief from the chip drought by Q2 and hopes to make up for its lost production. On the crypto front, Bank of New York Mellon confirmed plans to form a new digital assets division to develop a multi-asset platform which would include cryptocurrencies. Tesla said it invested $1.5B of cash into Bitcoin and plans to begin accepting it as a payment in the near future. In M&A news, EA agreed to acquire game developer Gluu Mobile in a $2B deal. Microsoft reportedly made an approach to acquire Pinterest in recent months but the talks are not ongoing. Amazon-backed EV maker Rivian is said to be considering an IPO this year, which could be valued north of $50B.


MON 2/8
(US) Jan NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: survey shows increased optimism; expectations of future consumer spending surge in Jan

TUES 2/9
PFE Expects almost 50% Cut in COVID-19 vaccine production time (production time could drop from about 110 days to about 60 days)
NUE Guides Q1 net earnings >$900M; encouraged by positive economic trends and the robust demand we are seeing across our markets
GM To extend production cuts caused by semiconductor shortages at three N.A. production plants through mid-March - press
7203.JP Reports 9M Net ¥1.47T v ¥1.71T y/y; Op ¥1.51T v ¥2.04T y/y; Rev ¥19.53T v ¥22.97T y/y

WEDS 2/10
(CN) Fitch: China Internet Majors Remain Resilient to Macro, Regulatory Risks
HEIA.NL Reports FY20 Net -€88M v +€2.37B y/y Op €788M v €3.63B y/y, Rev €23.8B v €28.5B y/y; To cut 8k jobs saving ~€350M p.a
KO Reports Q4 $0.47 v $0.41e, Rev $8.60B v $8.74Be
GM Reports Q4 $1.93 v $1.62e, Rev $37.5B v $36.9Be; Semiconductor shortage to impact FY21 outlook
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Reiterates stance that fiscal policy needs to complement monetary policy - webinar comments
GM CEO: $7B of the FY21 Capex target of $9-10B dedicated to EVS and AVS - post earnings comments
*(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; CPI (EX-FOOD/ENERGY) M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 261.582 V 261.800E
GME Executives from Melvin Capital, Robinhood and Citadel expected to testify in DC - press
*(US) DEC FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -6.6M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: +4.3M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V -1ME
*(US) JAN MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$162.8B V -$150.0BE
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Fed will be patiently accommodative with monetary policy; Fed will maintain support until it has achieved job and inflation goals; will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to strong labor market
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 6th: 495.8K, +2.2% y/y
(US) President Biden Admin issues readout of call with China President Xi; talks about trade, climate, human rights
(CN) China President Xi: Cooperation is only correct choice for China and US, US and China should respect each other, properly manage disputes constructively - Comments after call with Biden

THURS 2/11
MT.NL Reports Q4 Net $1.21B v -$1.88B y/y, EBITDA $1.73B v $925M; Rev $14.2B v $15.5B y/y; Names Aditya Mittal CEO; proposes to restart dividend payments
AZN.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS $1.07 v $1.09e, Rev $7.41B v $7.2Be
RDS.A Sets out its strategy to accelerate its transformation into a provider of net-zero emissions energy products and services: Affirmed near-term annual cash Capex of $19-22B
OPEC Monthly Oil Report: global economy is showing signs of a healthy recovery in 2021
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 793K V 760KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.545M V 4.42ME
BK Confirms to form New Digital Assets Unit to build industry's first multi-asset digital platform, including cryptocurrencies
PYPL CEO Schulman: PayPal Digital Wallet app to potentially have investing platform capabilities along with banking capabilities - investor day comments
(US) White House official: Biden administration is working aggressively on semiconductor shortage; chip supply is a key issue in an upcoming executive order
(UK) Foreign Min Raab: decision by Chinese govt to ban BBC broadcasting in China is unacceptable
*(US) TREASURY $27B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 1.933%; BID TO COVER 2.18 V 2.29 PRIOR AND 2.33 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS

FRI 2/12
*(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -7.8% V -8.1%E
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Prepared to break off relationship with EU if the bloc imposes sanctions that damage Russia’s economy
CPNG Files to sell $1B IPO shares on NYSE - filing
COHR Confirms receipt of cash and stock offer of $260/shr from II-VI in $5.8B in cash and share deal
(US) FEB PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 76.2 V 80.9E
(IT) Mario Draghi officially confirms he can form a govt and will accept post as Italy PM

Stocks surge as Biden stimulus plan stays on track for quick passage

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Stocks surge as Biden stimulus plan stays on track for quick passage

2021-02-05T16:21:32.447

US stock markets surged this week enjoying the best weekly performance in months and by Friday US indices were once again hitting new all-time highs. The air finally started come out of the Reddit stocks as several Fed officials noted the stock volatility was not a matter for monetary policy. The Democrats and President Biden pressed forward with plans to provide substantial additional fiscal relief by paving a legislative path for the stimulus plan even if Republicans ultimately prove unwilling to sign on. By Friday, Speaker Pelosi indicated she was confident the House will send a Covid relief package to the Senate within two weeks and was already alluding to an additional recovery bill and an infrastructure package in the near future.

Global PMI figures remained solid despite the extension of many pandemic lockdowns in Europe and rising post-holiday case counts in the US last month. US Fed officials emphasized they remained willing to let the economy run hot and that they were unlikely to begin discussions of tapering asset purchases anytime soon given the uncertainty around the ongoing pandemic. The BOE pushed back on the notion that now is the appropriate time to prepare for negative rates putting upward pressure on GILT yields and buoying the Pound. Friday’s January jobs report disappointed coming in short of expectations on payrolls. Though the unemployment rate receded, it came at least partially at the expense of a decline in the participation rate. WTI crude closed the week near a fresh 1-year high, inducing inflation expectations to continue creeping higher. Treasury yields backed up further pushing the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate near 2.2% for the first time since 2018. Stocks had their best week in 3 months: the S&P gained 4.7%, the DJIA was up 3.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 6%.

In corporate news this week, Google posted blowout earnings numbers as its core advertising business rebounded and cloud revenue came in line with estimates. Amazon notched its highest quarterly revenue number of all time and announced CEO Bezos would step back to the executive chairman role. Ford said it plans to double its previous commitment to electric vehicles, boosting its planned investment to $22B, while also launching a partnership with Google to accelerate its transformation and improve its connected vehicle experience. Apple reportedly neared a deal with Hyundai-Kia to build Apple autonomous EVs at a Kia plant in Georgia, likely starting in 2024. Early in the week reports came out that Exxon and Chevron CEOs had discussed a potential merger last year when oil prices sank, but the discussions were said to only have been in the preliminary stages.


SUN 1/31
XOM Reportedly Exxon & Chevron CEOs discussed potential merger in 2020; discussion said to have been in early stage - press
*(CN) CHINA JAN MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.3 V 51.5E (11th month of expansion, 2nd consecutive month of slowing expansion)
(HK) Macau Jan Casino Rev (MOP): 8.0B v 7.8B prior; Y/Y: -63.7% v -67.0%e

MON 2/1
*(IT) ITALY JAN MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.1 V 52.4E (7th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY JAN FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.1 V 57.0E
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.3% V 8.3%E
AAPL To sell USD-denominated 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year and 40-year bonds (6 tranches in total)
*(US) JAN FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.2 V 59.1E (series record)
*(US) JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 58.7 V 60.0E; PRICES PAID: 82.1 V 75.5E (highest prices paid since April 2011)
(US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues 2020-2024 economic projections: upgrades economic outlook; sees GDP reaching pre-pandemic peak by mid-2021, unemployment to fall to 5.3% by end of 2021
F Ford and Google launch six-year partnership to accelerate Ford's transformation and reinvent the connected vehicle experience
(US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, non-voter): There is still slack in the economy; there is a long way to go before we get economy fully reopened
(US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: to borrow $274B in Jan-Mar quarter v $175Be (prior estimate to borrow $1.127T)
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.10%, AS EXPECTED; MAINTAINS 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET AT 0.10%; MAINTAINS A$100B BOND BUYING PROGRAM AND WILL PURCHASE ADDITIONAL A$100B IN BONDS WHEN CURRENT PROGRAM EXPIRES

TUES 2/2
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: -0.7% V -0.9%E; Y/Y: -5.1% V -5.3%
HOL Astra to Become the First Publicly Traded Space Launch Company on NASDAQ via Merger with Holicity for implied EV of $2.1B
XOM Reports Q4 $0.03 v $0.01e, Rev $46.5B v $48.6Be; Records first annual loss in at least 40 years
ATOS Phase 2 Endoxifen Breast Cancer Study Produces Substantially Positive Results Allowing Study to be Halted Early
GOOGL Reports Q4 $22.30 v $15.91e, Rev $46.4B v $44.1Be
AMZN Reports Q4 $14.09 v $7.05e, Rev $125.6B v $120.4Be; Announces CEO transition; Jeff Bezos announces transition to Exec Chairman
992.HK Reports Q3 Net $395M v $258M y/y, Rev $17.3B v $14.1B y/y (record high Net and Rev)

WEDS 2/3
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net €1.38B v €864Me, Industrial Business EBITA €2.13B v €1.67Be, Rev €14.1B v €13.4Be; Raises FY21 comp Rev, Net guidance
VOD.UK Issues Q3 Trading update: Q3 Rev €11.2B v €11.8B y/y; Return to service revenue growth and FY21 guidance reiterated
*(IT) ITALY JAN PMI SERVICES: 44.7 V 39.5E (5th month of contraction)
*(FR) FRANCE JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 47.3 V 46.5E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(DE) GERMANY JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 46.7 V 46.8E (confirms 4th straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 45.4 V 45.0E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(UK) JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 39.5 V 38.8E (confirms 3rd straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.6%E; CPI CORE Y/Y:1.4% V 0.9%E (core reading a 5-year high)
*(US) JAN ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +174K V +50KE; Now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well
*(US) JAN ISM SERVICES INDEX: 58.7 V 56.7E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.0M V -0.5ME; GASOLINE: +4.5M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -0.0M V -0.5ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 30th: 520.7K, +2.1% y/y
EBAY Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.83e, Rev $2.87B v $2.70Be; Raises dividend 13% to $0.18/shr

THURS 2/4
NOK Reports Q4 non- IFRS EPS €0.14 v €0.15 y/y, Rev €6.57B v €6.51Be; Does not propose dividend for 2020
ROG.CH Reports FY20 (CHF) Core EPS 19.16 v 19.36e, Core Op 21.54B v 21.7Be, Rev 58.3B v 61.5B y/y; Expects to further increase dividend
NOKIA.FI Reports Q4 Net €M v €M y/y, Rev €6.57M v €M y/y
DBK.DE Reports Q4 Net €51M v -€1.60B y/y, Pretax €175M v -€22.4Me, Net Rev €5.45B v €5.34B y/y
RDSA.NL Reports Q4 CCS EPS $0.05 v $0.37, Adj CCS Net $393M v 2.93B, Rev $45.0B v $85.1B
UNA.NL Reports FY20 Net €5.58B v €7.0Be, adj Op €8.3B v €B, Rev €50.7B v €50.9Be
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: 2.0% V 2.8%E; Y/Y: 0.6% V 1.2%E
TW Reports Jan ADV $1.0T , +29.5% y/y
FAST Reports Jan net sales $448.0M, -3.2% y/y
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED; does not intend to send signal that negative rates coming, but appropriate to get ready for negative rates if needed
*(UK) BOE FEB MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Spare capacity seen being eliminated over 2021- post Rate Decision Press Conference
*(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY UNIT LABOR COSTS: 6.8% V 4.0%E; NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -4.8% V -3.0%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 779K V 830KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.592M V 4.70ME
F Raises Planned Investment in EV, AV Leadership to $29B; Further Advances Turnaround of Global Automotive Business in Q4

FRI 2/5
SAN.FR Reports Q4 Business EPS €1.22 v €1.22 y/y, Business Net €1.53B v €1.53B, Rev €9.38B v €9.38Be
*(US) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.0%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 35.0 V 34.7E
*(US) JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +49K V +105KE; Manufacturing Payrolls back to negative
AMZN Reportedly plans to train hundreds of people to launch their own trucking businesses exclusively to transport Amazon packages amid shortage of trucking companies to handle sufficient amount of freight - The Information
(US) DEC CONSUMER CREDIT: $9.73B V $12.0BE

Wall Street distracted by WallStreetBets; vaccines continue choppy roll out

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Wall Street distracted by WallStreetBets; vaccines continue choppy roll out

2021-01-29T16:18:47.877

It was a historically wild week on Wall Street to say the least, as the Reddit revolution captured the attention of the trading world. Earnings season was largely an afterthought despite roughly 25% of the S&P reporting results and many firms showing increased willingness to provide outlooks into 2021. Gamestop was the posterchild for a basket of highly shorted stocks targeted by WallStreetBets that soared by previously unthinkable amounts without offering up any fundamental news. By midweek high profile hedge fund Melvin Capital was in need of a rescue, sparking concerns that others were like confronting huge losses on their short positions as well. Some trading platforms, most notably Robinhood, were forced to temporarily curtail trading in the targeted stocks in the name of risk management. The overall market saw a surge in volatility and investors took profits despite outstanding earnings releases in many cases, as worries that the excess speculation seen in certain pockets is the latest harbinger of an impending stock market reckoning. For the week, the S&P and DJIA each lost 3.3%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

In corporate news this week, overall efficacy data for J&J’s vaccine failed to meet that of Pfizer or Moderna’s, but officials were quick to say the news remains positive, pointing in particular to the single-dose vaccination’s strength in preventing severe disease and hospitalizations. Moderna revealed that its COVID-19 vaccine loses potency against some of the most worrying emerging variants from the UK and South Africa, though the shots still retain neutralizing activity against them. ­Facebook notched record revenue and earnings in its Q4, thanks to strong online holiday shopping numbers and a pandemic-related boost to its ad business. Apple posted a blowout Q1, tallying over $100B in revenue for the first time, lifted by a strong sales cycle for its iPhone 12 line. Tesla reported its first full-year profit on record vehicle deliveries and forecast a 50% long-term annual growth in vehicle sales going forward. NXP and STMicroelectronics reportedly have begun telling customers that they’ll raise prices by 10-20% amid higher demand for chips used in cars and telecommunications equipment. Microsoft earnings impressed, reporting stronger Azure cloud growth than was anticipated. Starbucks COO Roz Brewer announced she would be leaving the coffee giant in order to take the CEO role at Walgreens.


SUN 1/24
NXPI NXP and STMicroelectronics said to have informed customers they will increase prices by 10-20% due to higher demand for chips used in cars and telecommunications equipment - Nikkei
(TW) US, UK, Germany and Japan have all asked Taiwan to increase chip supply for auto industry - Nikkei

MON 1/25
(UK) UK reportedly faces three-month 'halfway house' lockdown after Easter to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine - The Telegraph
*(DE) GERMANY JAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 90.1 V 91.4E
MRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa; Lower titers may suggest a potential risk of earlier waning of immunity to the new B.1.351 strains
*(US) JAN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 7.0 V 12.0E
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer: will try to pass stimulus in a month or a month-and-a-half
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Digital innovations in payments are here to say; don't think cryptocurrencies are lasting yet - webinar comments
(IT) More speculation that PM Conte would likely to resign after informing the cabinet today or tomorrow; hopes to win mandate from Pres Mattarella to form a new govt - press
STLD Reports Q4 $0.97 v $0.62 y/y, Rev $2.60B v $2.35B y/y; sees continued steel price strength
MRNA Exec: expect durability of protection from primary series of our COVID vaccine to be a year or longer - conf call comments

TUES 1/26
UBSG.CH Reports Q4 Net $1.71B v $722M y/y; Adj Pretax $2.06B v $1.2B y/y; Rev $8.12B v $7.05B y/y; To launch new buyback of up to CHF4B; Proposes $0.37/shr dividend for 2020
GE Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.08e, Rev $21.9B v $21.3Be
MMM Reports Q4 $2.38 v $2.19e, Rev $8.58B v $8.49Be
VZ Reports Q4 $1.21 v $1.16e, Rev $34.7B v $34.4Be
PCAR Reports Q4 $1.17 v $1.21e, Rev $5.57B v $5.03Be; Class 8 EV truck climbs Pikes Peak - EV truck production to begin Q2 2021
BAC CEO: Jan consumer spending is up 9% on the year; we feel very constructive about consumer activity - CNBC interview
*(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING: 14 V 19E
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 89.3 V 89.0E
(US) Pres Biden executive order to instruct DOJ to not renew contracts with private prisons - press
MSFT Reports Q2 $2.03 v $1.64e, Rev $43.1B v $40.1Be
WBA Reportedly to name outgoing Starbucks exec Roz Brewer as new CEO; announcement could come later this week - press
005930.KR Reportedly plans to boost FY21 chip capex to KRW35T, +20% y/y (~$31.8B) v ~KRW29T y/y; will focus on Xi'an No 2 plant in china and Pyeongtaek No 2 plant in Korea - Korean press
2330.TW Intel to outsource 3nm chips production to Taiwan Semi in 2022 – DigiTImes

WEDS 1/27
GME Reportedly Melvin Capital is out of GME position - CNBC
BA Reports Q4 -$15.25* v -$1.78e, Rev $15.3B v $15.3Be; 5 airlines return 787 MAX to daily service
*(US) DEC PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.2% V 1.0%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.7% V 0.5%E
(DE) Germany Economy Ministry cuts 2021 GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 3.0% (as speculated)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -9.9M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: +2.5M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -0.8M V -0.5ME
BMW.DE Reports prelim Q4 Automotive segment FCF €2.8B v €1.5B y/y, FY20 FCF €3.4B v €2.6B y/y (ahead of forecasts)
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 23rd: 529K, +9% y/y
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); PACE OF RECOVERY HAS MODERATED IN RECENT MONTHS
(US) Fed Chair Powell: reiterates Fed is strongly committed to achieving dual mandate; path ahead remains highly uncertain - post rate decision press conference
FB Reports Q4 $3.88 v $3.24e, Rev $28.1B v $26.4Be; Authorizes new buyback of up to $25B
CP Reports Q4 C$5.95 v C$4.93e, Rev C$2.01B v C$2.07Be
TSLA Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.90e, Rev $10.7B v $10.1Be
005930.KR Reports final Q4 (KRW) Net 6.6T v 5.2T y/y; Op 9.1T v 9.0T prelim; Rev 61.6T v 61T prelim

THURS 1/28
066570.KR Reports final FY20 (KRW) Net 2.06T v 180.0B y/y, Op 3.20T v 2.44T y/y, Rev 63.3T v 63.3T prelim
(HK) Macau Dec Hotel Occupancy Rate: 53.1% v 43.9% prior
DGE.UK Reports H1 Net £1.58B v £1.87B y/y, Adj Op £2.26B v £2.50B y/y, Rev £6.87B v £7.20B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 91.5 V 89.6E
MA Reports Q4 $1.64 v $1.51e, Rev $4.1B v $4.00Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 847K V 875KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.771M V 5.09ME
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 4.0% V 4.2%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.5% V 3.1%E
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.0% V 2.2%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.2%E
(US) Nevada reports Dec casino gaming Rev $683.7M, -35% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $292M, -50.7% y/y
*(US) DEC NEW HOME SALES: 842K V 870KE
*(US) DEC LEADING INDEX: 0.3% V 0.3%E
(US) South Africa COVID variant identified in the US after two cases diagnosed in South Carolina - press
DAI.DE Reports prelim FY20 adj EBIT €8.64B v €7.12Be, industrial FCF €8.26B v €5.3Be
AMGN StatNews' Feuerstein: BREAKING: 'A milestone in oncology’: $AMGN KRAS-blocking drug proves effective for lung cancer
SWKS Reports Q1 $3.36 v $2.08e, Rev $1.51B v $1.06Be

FRI 1/29
SAP.DE Reports final Q4 EPS €1.69 v €1.82 y/y; Op €2.77B v €2.77B prelim; Rev €7.54B v €7.54B prelim; Affirms guidance
*(FR) FRANCE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.3% V -4.0%E; Y/Y: -5.0% V -7.6%E
*(DE) GERMANY Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: -3.9% V -4.0%E
CAT Reports Q4 $2.12 v $1.46e, Rev $11.2B v $11.2Be
JNJ Announces single-shot Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Ad26.COV2.S, met primary endpoints in interim analysis of its Phase 3 ENSEMBLE Trial; 66% effective overall (72% effective in US) and 85% effective in stopping severe COVID-19
(US) SEC statement: agency is closely monitoring extreme price volatility; will review actions by entities that inhibit trading ability
*(US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -0.3% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 22.8% V 20.3%E
*(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 79.0 V 79.3E
(EU) ECB: to stress test 38 euro zone banks as part of the 2021 EU-wide stress tests led by the EBA

Risk appetite remains despite accumulating vaccine distribution issues

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: risk appetite remains despite accumulating vaccine distribution issues

2021-01-22T16:16:16.4

US stocks markets continued to move up this week and risk assets in general saw inflows as the US formally transitioned to the Biden administration. Risk appetite was stoked by hopes the new administration will get more stimulus passed and get vaccinations back on track amid emerging technical delays at the vaccine manufacturers. US economic data largely surpassed expectations, while manufacturing readings and some corporate managements gave indications of rising pricing pressures.

The ECB meeting went largely as expected though the policy statement was explicit in flagging the possibility the central bank may not need to use the entire €1.85T Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. Italy’s government appeared to overcome another government crisis but PM Conte’s fragile coalition still faces hurdles heading into another key vote next week. The US dollar gave back some ground coming off of last week’s one week high while rates in the US tracked sideways and EU sovereign yields backed up. Bitcoin remained volatile, experiencing its worst week since September. For the week, the S&P gained 1.9% and the DJIA added 0.6%, while the Nasdaq surged 4.2% as large cap tech came back into favor.

In corporate news this week, Netflix saw its biggest daily gain in over four years on the back of strong subscriber growth in Europe and solid guidance. Intel posted record revenue numbers for Q4 in its last quarter with Bob Swan at the helm, while incoming CEO Gelsinger promised the majority of its products will be manufactured internally by 2023, spurning calls to outsource chip manufacturing. IBM revenue missed top line Q4 estimates as it saw its revenue continue to drop, though it did forecast positive sales growth in 2021. Bank of America shares moved lower after posting a quarterly beat on EPS but disappointing sales, with trading revenue coming in below consensus. Morgan Stanley’s fourth quarter blew away street estimates, though the bank somewhat tempered FY21 trading expectations. GM’s Cruise unit entered a long-term strategic agreement with Microsoft as part of a new $2B round of investment in its autonomous car joint venture. Google threatened to shut down its entire search engine in Australia if a proposed law there to require payments for posting news articles goes into effect. President Biden issued an executive order canceling the Keystone XL oil pipeline permit, reversing a priority of former President Trump, despite calls from the Canadian government to maintain the project.


SUN 1/17
(US) Treasury Sec nominee Yellen reportedly to affirm commitment to market-determined US dollar rate; will make clear US does not seek weaker dollar for competitive advantage - US financial press
TRP US President-elect Biden is planning to use executive order to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline permit - Canada press
*(CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 2.6% V 2.7%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.2%E

MON 1/18
(US) Treasury Sec nominee Yellen: Time to act big for recovery with rates low; US economy was K-shaped before COVID - speech notes ahead of Jan 19th hearing
RIO.AU Reports Q4 Pilbara Iron Ore production 86.0Mt v 83.6Mt y/y; Shipments 88.9Mt v 86.8Mt y/y

TUES 1/19
*(DE) GERMANY JAN ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -66.4 V -68.3E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 61.8 V 59.4E
BAC Reports Q4 $0.59 v $0.56e, Rev $20.1B v $20.4Be
GM Cruise JV and GM enter long-term strategic agreement with Microsoft to commercialize self-driving vehicles; to invest more than $2B in Cruise
*(IT) ITALY PM CONTE WINS SENATE (UPPER HOUSE) CONFIDENCE VOTE - PRESS

WEDS 1/20
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC FINAL CPI Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.2%E
FAST Reports Dec net sales $428.8M, +14.7% y/y
PG Reports Q2 $1.64 v $1.51e, Rev $19.7B v $19.1Be; Now sees $10B in stock buybacks in 2021 (prior $7-9B)
*(US) JAN NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 83 V 86E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 16th: 528.6K, +5.8% y/y
AA Reports Q4 $0.26 v $0.15e, Rev $2.39B v $2.35Be
UAL Reports Q4 -$7.00 adj v -$6.56e, Rev $3.41B v $3.42Be

THURS 1/21
*(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Maintains size and duration of PEPP program and notes it may not need to be used in full
*(US) DEC HOUSING STARTS: 1.669M V 1.560ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.709M V 1.608ME
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 900K V 935KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.05M V 5.30ME
*(US) JAN PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 26.5 V 11.8E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Reiterates stance that prepared to adjust all instruments as needed as uncertainty remains high - Prepared Remarks
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Inflation to turn positive on reversal of German VAT cut, domestic prices will continue to be subdued - Q&A
SIE.DE Reports prelim Q1 Digital Industries Adj EBITA €848M v €592Me, Rev €3.77B v €3.56Be, Orders €4.12B v €4.0Be, Adj EBITA margin 22.5% v 16.6%e
IBM Reports Q4 $2.07 v $1.78e, Rev $20.4B v $20.6Be
INTC Reports Q4 $1.52 v $1.10e, Rev $20.0B v $17.5Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 5.3% to $0.3475 from $0.33 (indicated yield 2.21%)

FRI 1/22
GOOGL Says to block search engine in Australia if it is forced to pay for news - financial press
*(UK) DEC RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: 0.4% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 6.4% V 7.4%E
*(DE) GERMANY JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.0 V 57.2E (7th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.7 V 54.4E (7th month of expansion)
*(UK) JAN PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 52.9 V 53.6E (8th straight expansion)
(DE) Additional chatter German Government to cut 2021 GDP growth from 4.4% to 3.0% - German press
VOW3.DE Raises FY20 adj Op ~€10B v €19.3B y/y (prior Op 'positive' but significant decline), Automotive net cash flow ~€6B
(UK) Health officials: the virus may no longer be spreading exponentially
(US) JAN PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.1 V 56.5E (highest on record)
(US) DEC EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.76M V 6.56ME
(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.4M V -1.5ME; GASOLINE: -0.3M V +2ME; D (IT) Italy health officials say virus reproduction ('R') rate has fallen below 1 after a five week rise
(US) Nevada reports 2020 casino gaming Rev $6.75B, -23% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $3.39B, -24.2% y/y

Markets stall as vaccinations roll out slower than expected

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets stall as vaccinations roll out slower than expected

2021-01-15T16:03:48.6

Momentum in equity markets began to wane this week but not before indices eked out new highs led by the small cap Russell 2000. The House voted to impeach outgoing President Trump, as expected, setting the stage for a trial in the Senate during the first days the new administration. Hopes for a substantive fiscal stimulus package after Inauguration Day kept upward pressure on US Treasury yields early on and buoyed asset valuations. Rates stabilized after US 10-year and 30-year Treasury sales saw strong demand and US inflation readings remained benign. Also Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the time to raise rates isn’t going to be anytime soon while a chorus of his colleagues opined the current pace of bond buying will be appropriate for quite some time. Initial jobless claims jumped back towards the 1M mark before Powell noted he still sees plenty of slack in the labor market. Surging COVID infections and growing disappointment in the vaccine rollout dented sentiment late in the week and weighed on equities heading into the long holiday weekend. The US dollar continued to rebound helped by softness in the Euro as Italy once again fell into a political crisis. For the week, the S&P slipped 1.4%, the DJIA lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.

In corporate news this week, banks kicked off earnings season with mixed results. JPMorgan posted solid numbers, beating on earnings thanks to upside surprises on credit and trading revenue. Wells Fargo posted a rise in profit, but revenue came in below estimates, sending shares lower despite a new $500M share buyback program. Citi surpassed earnings expectations and missed on revenue, though announced it would join JPM in releasing more reserves than expected that it had set aside for COVID-related defaults. KB Homes blew out EPS estimates and guided ‘meaningfully higher’ revenue and earnings for FY21. Reports early in the week uncovered potential two-month delays in J&J’s vaccine production schedule, though shares gained later in the week as news trickled out that its one-shot COVID vaccine is safe and generates promising immune response in early trials. Big box retailer Target released strong holiday sales numbers, with digital sales more than doubling in November and December. Intel CEO Bob Swan announced he would step down amid activist pressure with VMWare exec Pat Gelsinger taking the reins. Alimentation Couche-Tard submitted a €20/share takeover bid for retailer Carrefour, though the French government pushed back to slow down any potential deal. Visa and fintech firm Plaid agreed to mutual termination of their merger agreement amid regulatory scrutiny.


MON 1/11
MRNA Reportedly in talks to sell more vaccine doses to the EU at a higher price – press
(US) House Democrats formally introduce Articles of Impeachment against Pres Trump for "incitement of insurrection"

TUES 1/12
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Have little evidence of the scale of economic impact from latest lockdown measures; too soon to reach any conclusions about the need for future stimulus
KBH Reports Q4 $1.31 v $0.87e, Rev $1.19B v $1.11Be
(US) Sen Maj Leader McConnell reportedly believes Trump committed impeachable offenses and that the attack on Capitol gives GOP a chance to purge the president - NY Times
(US) No. 3 House Republican Cheney (WY) will vote to impeach Pres Trump; House Republican Kinzinger (IL) to back impeachment - press
(KR) South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.1%e (10-year high)

WEDS 1/13
JNJ Vaccine production is said to be 2 months behind original schedule; to release COVID-19 vaccine trial results as soon as in 2 weeks - NYT
TGT Reports Nov/Dec Total SSS +17.2%; SS Digital sales +102%
*(US) DEC CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; CPI (EX-FOOD/ENERGY) M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E, CPI NSA: 260.474 V 260.401E
INTC Bob Swan to step down as CEO amid activist pressure; VMWare exec Pat Gelsinger to take over - CNBC's Faber
CA.FR Alimentation Couche-Tard confirms submission of a non-binding €20/shr offer letter
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.2M V -2.0ME; GASOLINE: +4.4M V +2.0ME; DISTILLATE: +4.8M V +2.0ME
(IT) Italy's Renzi: Confirms his Party's ministers are resigning, takes courage to pull out of Government now
*(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 1.825%; BID TO COVER 2.47 V 2.48 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 9th: 525.3K, +4.7% y/y
BABA Reportedly US govt will continue to allow investment in some Chinese firms like BABA, BIDU, and Tencent; Nine other firms with links to Chinese military will be added to investment black list - press
*(US) DEC MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$143.6B V -$143.5BE
(US) House of Representatives impeaches Pres Trump for a second time, with 10 Republicans joining Democrats to vote yes

THURS 1/14
2330.TW Reports Q4 (NT$) Net 142.8B v 137.2Be (v 116.0B y/y); Op 157.1B v 124.2B y/y; Rev 361.5B v 317.2B y/y
(US) Reportedly US researches found new dominant COVID-19 variant [COH.20G/501Y] in the state of Ohio’s capital, Columbus - FT
DAL Reports Q4 -$2.53 v -$2.41e, Rev $3.97B v $3.83Be; Reiterates to be break even on cash flow by spring; Sees business travel pickup in Q2
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 965K V 789KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.27M V 5.00ME
(DE) New planned COVID lockdown measures in Germany reportedly might include closing schools - German press

FRI 1/15
JPM Reports Q4 $3.79 v $2.72e, Managed Rev $30.2B v $29.3Be
*(US) JAN EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 3.5 V 6.0E
*(US) DEC ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.7% V 0.0%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: -1.4% V -0.2%E
*(US) DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.6% V 0.5%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 74.5% V 73.6%E
*(US) NOV BUSINESS INVENTORIES: 0.5% V 0.5%E
*(US) JAN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 79.2 V 79.5E
(US) Coronavirus vaccine reserve for second doses had reportedly already been exhausted when Trump administration promised to release it - Wash Post

TradeTheNews.com 

Democrats take control of Congress; President Trump increasingly isolated following Capitol riot

2021-01-08T16:23:46.81

US stock markets forged further into uncharted territory this week despite what can only be described as a historically tumultuous week. Covid cases continued to surge globally as governments struggled to keep the pandemic from overwhelming health care systems. By Friday one out of every one thousand American citizens had succumbed to the virus as the daily death count surpassed 4K for the first time. The surging pandemic was nearly background noise though, as US democratic institutions came under attack. By Wednesday the Democrats had taken control of the Senate by winning the two Georgia Senate runoff seats and President Trump held a rally in Washington DC calling on his supporters to fight the results of last year’s election. The rally morphed into an all-out riot when supporters marched to the Capitol building where Congress was certifying President-elect Biden’s victory and overwhelmed security forces. Mayhem ensued with the Capitol building getting overrun and ultimately resulting in 5 deaths including one Capitol police officer before the National Guard was called in to end the siege. In the aftermath President Trump became increasingly isolated, with business leaders, cabinet members and even the VP distancing themselves while Democrat leaders called for impeachment citing incitement of insurrection.

Strikingly US stock markets had no problem climbing what seemed an insurmountable wall of worry. A reflation trade clearly took hold, aided by the expectation that Biden and the Democrats will be able to push through additional stimulus spending and perhaps an infrastructure bill this year. Not even a disappointing Dec employment report and Fed officials hinting at beginning to discuss pulling back on asset purchases as early as this year could derail the momentum. Interest rates moved up along with stocks and a basket of risk assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield topped 1% for the first time since March, resulting in substantial curve steepening and rising inflation breakeven rates. Bitcoin shot above 40K for the first time and TSLA shares surged above $800, making CEO Musk the wealthiest person on the planet. WTI crude prices moved back above $50/barrel after OPEC+ producers got a surprise cut announcement from the Saudis allowing production to essential stay steady through March. The Russell 2k led the charge following the Georgia runoff results but by week's end nearly all US indices closed at new highs. For the week the Dow rose 1.6%, S&P gained 1.8% and the NASDAQ added 2.43%.

In corporate news this week, Micron posted strong earnings and guided above consensus amid improving DRAM market dynamics. Bed Bath and Beyond Q3 earnings disappointed and guidance fell short of estimates. GM reported its best Q4 retail sales since 2007, and the automaker said it was 'especially bullish' about its new full-size SUVs. EU’s EMA recommended Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in people over 18 years of age, as had been anticipated. The joint healthcare venture between Amazon, Berkshire, and JPMorgan announced it would shut down after three years, concluding a failed effort that had sought to tackle high and rising costs for employee health care. Google and Snap reportedly are in talks to invest in an Indian social network, ShareChat. Boeing entered into a $2.5B deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ on 737 MAX fraud conspiracy charges. Starbucks CFO Patrick Grismer said he plans to retire in May 2021. Sarepta shares cratered after announcing its Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy treatment study did not produce statistically significant results.

SUNDAY 1/3
(HK) Macau Dec Casino Rev (MOP): 7.8B v 6.8B prior; Y/Y: -65.8% v -70.5% prior

MONDAY 1/4
*(IT) ITALY DEC MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 53.5E (6th month of expansion)
SNAP Google and Snap said to be in talks to invest in Indian social network ShareChat - tech blog
AMZN Amazon-Berkshire-JPMorgan healthcare JV Haven to shut down after three years - CNBC
(US) Fed Bostic (dove, non-voter): Recalibration of US central bank asset purchases could come in short order if COVID vaccine and economic recovery take hold, new stimulus package will help avoid some of the worst outcomes, but still watching for vulnerabilities

TUESDAY 1/5
*(DE) GERMANY DEC NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -37.0K V +10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.1% V 6.2%E
(RU) Saudi and Russia reportedly reach compromise that keeps OPEC+ oil output levels steady for Feb but increases in March - press
*(US) DEC ISM MANUFACTURING: 60.7 V 56.7E; PRICES PAID: 77.6 V 65.0E (Manufacturing highest since Aug 2018, Prices paid highest since 2018)
GM Reports Q4 sales 771.3K vehicles, +4.8% y/y (best Q4 retail sales since 2007); 'especially bullish' about its new full-size SUVs
(SA) Saudi Energy Min: To cut 1M b/d oil unilaterally in Feb and March citing preemptive measure

WEDNESDAY 1/6
*(FR) FRANCE DEC PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.2%E
*(IT) ITALY DEC SERVICES PMI: 39.7 V 45.0E (4th month of contraction)
*(DE) GERMANY DEC FINAL PMI SERVICES: 47.0 V 47.7E (confirms 3rd straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC FINAL PMI SERVICES: 46.4 V 47.3E (confirms 4th straight contraction)
*(UK) DEC FINAL PMI SERVICES: 49.4 V 49.9E (confirms 2nd straight contraction)
MRNA EU EMA recommends Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine (as expected); grants conditional marketing authorization for use in people from 18 years of age
*(DE) GERMANY DEC PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.2%E
*(US) DEC ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -123K V +75KE (1st negative reading since April)
(US) NYSE will proceed with delisting of three Chinese telecom firms - press
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -8.0M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +4.5M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: +6.4M V +1.5ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 2nd: 422K, +1.9% y/y
(US) VP Pence statement: I have no authority to unilaterally determine votes; It is not correct that I should be able to accept or reject Electoral College votes unilaterally
(US) All US Capitol buildings have now gone into lockdown as protesters have breached the Capitol - press
*(US) US GOVT REPORTEDLY MULLING ADDING ALIBABA AND TENCENT TO CHINA STOCK BAN; WOULD RESTRICT US INVESTMENT IF ENACTED - PRESS
COST Reports Dec SSS (ex-gasoline) +10.9% v +10.1%e
TWTR Locking Trump account for 12-hours; to permanently ban President Trump account with any future violations
(CN) S&P Dow Jones to remove ADRs of China telecoms [reverses prior position after similar move by the NYSE] - press

THURSDAY 1/7
*(US) CONGRESS CERTIFIES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VOTE FOR BIDEN
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 90.4 V 89.8E
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.2%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: -6.1% V -3.4%E; Y/Y: -2.9% V +0.9%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 787K V 800KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.07M V 5.20ME
*(US) DEC ISM SERVICES INDEX: 57.2 V 54.5E (highest since Sept)
MU Reports Q1 $0.78 v $0.71e, Rev $5.77B v $5.73Be
BA DOJ charges Boeing with 737 MAX fraud conspiracy; Boeing to settle for $2.5B
(US) Fed's Bostic: Fed may taper bond purchases earlier than expected - Fox Business interview
005930.KR Reports Q4 prelim (KRW) Op 9.0T v 9.5Te (vs 7.2T y/y) , Rev 61T v 62.0Te (vs 59.9T y/y)
PFE Exec: according to new study, COVID-19 vaccine appears to be effective against both UK coronavirus variant B117

FRIDAY 1/8
*(EU) EURO ZONE NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.3% V 8.5%E
*(US) DEC CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -140K V +50KE (1st negative reading since Apr 2020)
*(US) DEC AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.8% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 4.5%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.7 V 34.8E
*(US) NOV FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.0% V -0.1%E