Q1 ends on an optimistic note

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Q1 ends on an optimistic note

2021-04-01T17:48:10.05

Q1 drew to close this week with US stock markets once again testing new all-time highs. Heading into the Easter break the S&P topped 4,000 for the first time while the NASDAQ surged amid renewed interest in growth sectors, namely technology shares. President Biden outlined his vision for over $2T in infrastructure spending the Democrats are widely expected to push through Congress along with a package of high income and corporate tax increases, but the measures are clearly going to receive stiff oppositions from Republicans. The “Ever Given” was finally refloated allowing traffic to resume in the Suez Canal. Economic data stayed markedly upbeat despite the institution of additional lock down measures across much of Europe. US vaccine numbers continued to climb and on Friday Pfizer released a new batch of data showing its vaccine was 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 cases in South Africa (among 800 subjects), where the worrisome B.1.351 variant remains prevalent.

A calmer tenor in the global rates markets likely kept the door open for improving stock sentiment as well. The US 10-year yield appears to have encountered some resistance around 1.75% ahead of a quirky release for the March jobs report on Friday when most major financial markets including in the US are closed. Global central bank officials continued to stress the need to keep policy loose coming out of the pandemic and don’t intend to move proactively even if inflation begins to rise. WTI crude prices hovered around $60/bbl after OPEC+ producers agreed to roll over production cuts this month, and the Saudis indicated they would gradually start taking back their unilateral 1M bpd output cut in May while the cartel eased production cuts by similar amount. The US Dollar stayed strong largely on the back of a softer Euro as Europe continued to lag the US in terms of vaccination numbers. For the week, the S&P gained 1.1%, the DJIA added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was up 2.6%.

In corporate news this week, Micron shares jumped after posting beats and forecasting a strong sales and earnings outlook. Reports also circulated that Western Digital and Micron were individually considering a potential $30B deal for Kioxia Holdings Corp, the memory manufacturer spun off from Toshiba in 2018. American Airlines improved its business outlook, raising Q1 capacity guidance and noting its seven-day average of net bookings has hit ~90% of 2019 levels. Delta announced it would lift its block on selling the middle seat on flights beginning May 1st, the last of the major carriers to end the COVID-era restriction. Lululemon reported a beat on its top and bottom line in Q4, while its outlook disappointed the Street as post-pandemic reopening questions remain. Visa confirmed it would be the first major payments network to settle transactions using USD Coin, a stablecoin powered by the Ethereum blockchain. PayPal launched "Checkout with Crypto,” a service for customers to use crypto holdings to pay at online merchants globally.

SUN 3/28
386.HK Reports FY20 (CNY) Net 32.9B v 57.5B y/y; Rev 2.1T v 2.97T y/y
8604.JP Guides to potentially has a loss as much as $2.0B at US unit, related to transactons with a US client; Cancelling issuance of USD denominated bonds
(EG) Stuck Suez Canal ship "Ever Given" has been successfully refloated

MON 3/29
CSGN.CH Exiting positions after US hedge fund default (failed to meet margin requirements), premature to quantify exact size of loss, could be "highly significant" to Q1 results
CSGN.CH Reportedly expected loss due to US hedge fund default estimated to be between $3-4B - FT
V Confirms first major payments network to settle transactions in USD Coin (USDC) with Visa over Ethereum
AAL Raises Q1 Capacity -45% to -40% (prior -45%); As of Mar 26th 7-day avg of net bookings ~90% of 2019 levels
(EG) Suez Canal authority official: traffic in the Suez Canal has resumed after the stranded ship was refloated
*(US) MAR DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 28.9 V 16.8E
(US) CDC director Walensky: new US COVID cases have risen 10% in last week; deaths are now rising along with cases and hospitalizations

TUES 3/30
6723.JP Damaged Chip plant is likely to restart 'on schedule' (within 1-month), ~75% of work in process was undamaged by fire
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 101.0 V 96.0E
*(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 109.7 V 96.9E (highest reading since March 2020)
LULU Reports Q4 $2.58 v $2.49e, Rev $1.73B v $1.66Be
*(CN) CHINA MAR MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.9 V 51.2E (13th month of expansion)

WEDS 3/31
*(UK) Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: -7.3% V -7.8%E
*(DE) GERMANY MAR UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -8.0K V -3.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: % V 6.0%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.1%E
*(US) MAR ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +517K V +550KE
*(US) MAR CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): 66.3 V 61.0E (highest March reading since 2011)
*(US) FEB PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -10.6% V -3.0%E; Y/Y: -2.7% V +6.5%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -0.9M V -0.5ME; GASOLINE: -1.7M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: +2.5M V +0.5ME
MSFT Awarded U.S. Army contract for AR headsets, worth up to $22B over 10 years - press
MU Reports Q2 $0.98 v $0.95e, Rev $6.24B v $6.18Be
2330.TW To invest $100B over 3-years to increase chip fabrication capacity - Company Statement
2330.TW Said to be requesting that clients accept higher prices - Nikkei

THRS 4/1
(HK) Macau Mar Casino Rev (MOP): 8.3B v 7.3B prior; Y/Y: 58.0% v +135.6% prior
*(IT) ITALY MAR MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.8 V 59.8E ((9th month of expansion and highest since Mar 2000)
*(DE) GERMANY MAR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 66.6 V 66.6E (confirms 9th month of expansion and record high)
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.5 V 62.4E (confirms 9th month of expansion and record high)
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 719K V 675KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.79M V 3.75ME
*(US) MAR FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.1 V 59.1E
*(US) MAR ISM MANUFACTURING: 64.7 V 61.5E; PRICES PAID: 85.6 V 85E (highest ISM Manufacturing reading since 1983)
OPEC+ members support a 1-month roll over of production cuts; agree to gradual production increases from May through July

TradeTheNews.com 

Equity Markets Whipsaw Around Growth Risks and Central Bank Commentary

2021-03-26T16:11:08.667

Global growth worries resurfaced this week weighing on interest rates initially while causing rising volatility in stock markets. Germany followed a host of EU countries by re-introducing pandemic lockdown measures while issues surrounding vaccine distribution in both Europe and Asia lingered. Adding to the consternation, tensions between China and the West ratcheted higher amid a new round of human rights sanctions on Chinese individuals, and global supply chains were threatened by the grounding of a large tanker in the Suez Canal halting all traffic there indefinitely.

Equity markets stabilized mid-week amid another significant chorus of Central Bank speakers that emphasized they would not be pre-emptively pulling away the punch bowl anytime soon. Also reassuring macro-economic and corporate data suggesting the broader reopening has momentum buoyed risk appetite. Value, namely cyclical and reflation trade sectors, continued modestly outperform growth and more speculative asset classes. Small caps and the Russell 2K lagged the Dow and S&P. Crude prices dipped early in the week before recovering and the US dollar index stayed at the highest levels since Thanksgiving and the Euro dipped below 1.18. Bitcoin slumped back towards 50K before recovering into week's end. For the week the S&P gained 1.6%, the Dow added 1.4% while the NASDAQ lost 0.6%.

In corporate news this week, AstraZeneca adjusted its COVID efficacy statistics downward to 76% from 79% after a rebuke from the NIH who had been overseeing the study. Intel announced a change of course for its core strategy, shifting to production of other companies’ chips, as well as planning for a new research collaboration with IBM and a $20B investment to build two new fabs in Arizona. Adobe shares lifted after blowing away Q1 expectations and raising its outlook, pointing to strong growth in its digital subscriptions revenue. Darden posted a Q3 beat, raising its dividend and authorizing a new stock buyback, along with announcing a raise in hourly pay for its restaurant workers. Semiconductor manufacturer MagnaChip entered into an all-cash go-private transaction with Wise Road Capital at $29/shr. Kansas City Southern agreed to be acquired by Canadian Pacific for ~$275/shr, which would create the first U.S.-Mexico-Canada rail network. Microsoft is reportedly in talks to purchase communications company Discord for $10B, though the potential deal is not said to be imminent.

SUN 3/21
KSU To be acquired by Canadian Pacific for ~$275/shr to create first U.S.-Mexico-Canada rail network in $29B cash-stock deal
6723.JP CEO Shibata: Expect the fire at Aoki plant to have a big impact on supply of auto chips

MON 3/22
(TW) Said that the auto industry chip shortages will become worse in H1 2021 - Press
AZN.UK AZD1222 US Phase III trial met primary efficacy endpoint in preventing COVID-19 at interim analysis; 79% vaccine efficacy at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 and 100% efficacy against severe or critical disease and hospitalisation
(CN) EU imposes sanctions against Chinese individuals responsible for the alleged mistreatment of the country’s minority Uyghur population - press
(US) Fed Chair Powell: FED Not in decision mode on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) project
*(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.22M V 6.50ME
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Recovery seems to be strengthening, coming faster than expected; labor market conditions have recently improved; reiterates committed to suing full range of tools to support the economy - testimony for tomorrow
(DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Confirms tighter lockdown from April 1-5th, supermarkets only to be open April 3rd; Case numbers are rising exponentially due to UK variant, in a race to get vaccinated, in a very serious situation now

TUES 3/23
*(US) MAR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 17 V 16E
*(US) FEB NEW HOME SALES: 775K V 870KE
(US) Fed’s Brainard: Fed will form a new committee to monitor climate risks; climate change is already imposing substantial economic costs; mandatory disclosures on climate is likely important
ADBE Reports Q1 $3.14 v $2.79e, Rev $3.91B v $3.77Be
INTC Issues strategy for manufacturing, innovation and product; Plans for new research collaboration with IBM; targets $20B investment to build two new fabs in Arizona
(EG) Suez Canal reportedly has been blocked for several hours as a large container ship is stuck - press

WEDS 3/24
*(UK) FEB CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.8%E
TSLA CEO Musk tweets: customers can now buy a Tesla with bitcoin; BTC paid will not be converted to fiat money
700.HK Reports Q4 (CNY) Net 59.3B v 21.6B y/y, Op 63.7B v 28.6B y/y, Rev 133.7B v 105.8B y/y; Raises annual dividend 33% to HK$1.60/shr
*(UK) MAR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.9 V 55.0E (10th straight expansion and highest reading since Nov 2017)
*(US) FEB PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.1% V +0.5%E; DURABLE GOODS (EX-TRANSPORTATION: -0.9% V +0.5%E
GM Spokesperson: announces more production cuts related to semiconductor chip shortage - press
*(US) MAR MARKIT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.0 V 59.5E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +1.9M V 0ME; GASOLINE: +0.2M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +3.8M V 0ME
(US) Over 70 House Democrats and 10 senators call on Pres Biden to ensure 60% of vehicles on the road by 2030 are zero-emission models - press
(US) CDC order limiting cruising will stay in effect until Nov 1st; phased approach will continue - press
RAD Cuts FY21 Rev $24.0B v $24.2Be (prior $23.9-24.2B), adj EBITDA $425-435M (prior $490-520M), SSS +3.5% y/y (prior +3.5-4.5%)
KBH Reports Q1 $1.02 v $0.87e, Rev $1.14B v $1.21Be

THURS 3/25
(EG) Suez Canal stuck ship clearance reportedly could now take days to weeks - FT
DRI Reports Q3 $0.98 v $0.71e, Rev $1.73B v $1.62Be; Authorizes new $500M share buyback; Raises Quarterly dividend 137.8% to $0.88 from $0.37 (indicated yield 2.63%)
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 684K V 730KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.87M V 4.00ME
*(US) Q4 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.0% V 2.1%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.4%E
(US) Nevada reports Feb casino gaming Rev $772.4M, -25.9% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $348.5M, -41.6% y/y
(US) White House: Tracking Suez Canal Situation closely

FRI 3/26
(EG) Suez Canal stuck ship clearance said to take now 'at least' a week - press
NIO Cuts Q1 deliveries ~19.5K vehicles (prior 20-25K); To temporarily suspend vehicle production in Hefei facility citing semiconductor chip shortage
3328.HK Reports FY20 (CNY) Net 78.3B v 77.3B y/y, NII 153.3B v 144.1B y/y
*(DE) GERMANY MAR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 96.6 V 93.2E
(DE) Germany Public Health RKI Institute chief Wieler: COVID situation to get worse in coming weeks
MX Enters into $29/shr definitive agreement with Wise Road Capital in an all-cash take private transaction valued at $1.4B
*(US) FEB PERSONAL INCOME: -7.1% V -7.2%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: -1.0% V -0.8%
*(US) FEB PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E

TradeTheNews.com 

 Rising yields continue to take the air out of stocks and commodities; Fed affirms dovish stance

2021-03-19T16:15:31.337

Investors and markets continued to grapple with rising interest rates this week despite the US Federal Reserve doubling down with yet another highly dovish FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell reiterated now is still not the right time to begin discussions about tapering. By emphasizing he wants to see “actual” progress towards both the employment and inflation mandates, not just the forecasted progress as indicated in the latest round of SEP projections, the Chairman’s message remained clear. The Fed is still comfortable with letting the economy run hot as it emerges from the pandemic given the incomplete jobs recovery and continued subpar inflation. The benchmark US 10-year surged to 1.75% for the first time in more than a year after the meeting and the curve continued to steepen. By Friday, many Wall Street analysts had raised their forecasts calling for the 10-year yield to reach 2% by this summer.

Some stock indices reached new high water marks early on before volatility tied to rising interest rates and concerns surrounding pandemic weighed on sentiment into week’s end. Significant portions of Europe announced plans to return to lockdowns to fight rising Covid variant cases which resulted in weakness in the Euro. Bitcoin stayed near $60K buoyed by the Fed messaging. WTI crude prices traced back towards $60/bbl and the VIX appeared to put a bottom in below 20 in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC decision. For the week, the S&P lost 0.8%, the DJIA was fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%.

In corporate news this week, Nike shares slipped after missing revenue estimates for Q3, though the shoe giant pointed to congestion at backlogged US ports as the reason for stymied sales numbers. FedEx posted a beat on its Q3 earnings thanks to a robust holiday shipping season and strong margins. Some airlines gave an update this week on the current air travel situation. Southwest said it was seeing a rise in leisure bookings that could counter the diminished business travel sector. JetBlue said that, despite trends remaining choppy, in recent weeks they have experienced improved bookings. Homebuilder Lennar notched a big earnings beat amid continued ‘robust market conditions,’ noting margins remained high and deliveries improved. Volkswagen announced a large expansion of its electric vehicle plans this week, with major battery cell production investments in Europe, while targeting one million EV unit sales in 2021. Hartford Financial Services Group confirmed the receipt of an unsolicited non-binding acquisition proposal from Chubb, reportedly valued in the $21B range, and said it would carefully consider the proposal.


SUN 3/14
(IN) India said to propose a law that ban & criminalize cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, imposes penalties to mining, trading, and possession of Cryptocurrency - India press citing Govt official

MON 3/15
LUV Raises Mar Rev -20% to -15% y/y (prior -30% to -20% y/y), Load factor 60-70% (prior 65-70%); Recently experienced an increase in bookings farther out in the booking curve - filing
SJR To be acquired by Rogers for C$40.50/shr in ~C$26B cash deal
STAY Blackstone and Starwood Capital Group confirm they will acquire Extended Stay America for $19.50/sh cash in $6B deal
*(US) MAR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 17.4 V 14.5E
IPI Raises Trio price by $20/ton, effective March 15th

TUES 3/16
VOW3.DE Targets FY21 EV sales 1M units; Expects business to recover significantly y/y
*(DE) GERMANY MAR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -61.0 V -62.0E V -67.2 PRIOR; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 76.6 V 74.0E
*(US) FEB ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: -3.0% V -0.5%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO): M/M: -2.7% V +0.1%E
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -2.2% V 0.3%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 73.8% V 75.5%E
*(US) MAR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 82 V 84E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -3.8% v +15% prior
(US) TREASURY $24B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.290%, BID-TO-COVER 2.51 v 2.28 PRIOR (Strongest BTC on 20-year auction since last June)
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q1 GDP to 5.9% from 8.4%
CHIME.IPO Reportedly held early stage talks with banks about going public in 2021, could be valued at $30B - press
LEN Reports Q1 $2.04 adj v $1.65e, Rev $5.33B v $5.08Be
UBER Plans to give ~80K UK drivers 'worker' status following a court ruling; drivers to receive vacation pay, pension payments, and guaranteed minimum wage - filing
(RU) US government is expected to impose sanctions on Russia by as early as next week , the sanctions would relate to alleged meddling in the 2020 US election - financial press
7267.JP Said to suspend some production at All US and Canada plants citing supply chain issues - Press

WEDS 3/17
IEA Monthly Oil Report: Oil demand will return to 2019 level by 2023; Oil glut remains despite improving demand - Does NOT see supercycle
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.1%E
(RU) US Pres Biden: think Russia President Putin is a killer and will pay a price for meddling in US elections
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 1.421M V 1.560ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.682M V 1.750ME
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +2.4M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: +0.5M V -2.5ME; DISTILLATE: +0.3M V -1.5ME
762.HK FCC initiates proceeding to revoke China Unicom allowances; finds Unicom did not dispel serious concerns - press
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); ECONOMY'S PACE HAS PICKED UP; INFLATION CONTINUES TO RUN BELOW 2 PERCENT
(US) Fed Chair Powell: it is not time to start talking about tapering yet; we want to see actual progress, not forecast progress - post-decision Q&A

THURS 3/18
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Revises rate path outlook to "gradual rise in H2 2021" from "remain at current level for some time to come"; raises 2022 and 2023 rate outlook
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND BANK (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
*(UK) BOE VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
*(US) MAR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 51.8 V 23.3E (highest since 1973)
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 770K V 700KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.12M V 4.03ME
AZN (EU) EMA statement on vaccine: concludes AstraZeneca COVID vaccine benefits outweigh risks; vaccine is not associated with blood clots; says vaccine is safe and effective
(FR) France PM Castex: New lockdown measures will begin Friday (Mar 19th) at midnight and last for four weeks; will be implemented in 16 departments regions including Paris
HIG Confirms receipt of unsolicited non-binding proposal from Chubb; to carefully consider the proposal
FDX Reports Q3 $3.47 adj v $3.21e, Rev $21.5B v $20.0Be
NKE Reports Q3 $0.90 v $0.75e, Rev $10.4B* v $10.9Be; Sees resuming share buyback under existing plan in Q4 2021

FRI 3/19
(US) Fed: temporary change to supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31; Treasury market has stabilized
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q1 forecast to 6.3% from 8.6%; cuts Q2 forecast to 1.2% from 4.0%

Asset inflation questions arise again as US and EU pour on more stimulus

TradeTheNews.com 

sset inflation questions arise again as US and EU pour on more stimulus

2021-03-12T16:06:34.293

The S&P 500, Dow and German DAX all reached new high water marks this week which came alongside of continued signs of exorbitant asset appreciation. Bitcoin neared 60K for the first time while another litany NFT auctions saw insatiable investor demand including a digital piece of art from Beeple that fetched nearly $70M. Gamestop surged back to $300 while other meme stocks saw wild swings, once again unaccompanied by any fundamental news. On Monday, Appaloosa’s David Tepper stoked risk appetite and prodded markets higher when he noted he expected the recent rise in rates to take a breather here, and thus was becoming more bullish on stocks.

Reopening economies and fiscal stimulus clearly remained front and center in many investors’ minds as they grappled with how to position ahead of potential knock-on effects, which many worry will generate an inflation surge. Global bond yields did moderate during a good portion of the week, helped by news that the ECB would begin purchasing bonds through its PEPP program at a significantly faster clip over the next quarter, and US Treasury sales that were met with only modest demand. Weak Q4 growth data for Europe illustrated the continent’s struggle to shake off the pandemic impacts, even as most of Italy prepares to go into a new lockdown. Meanwhile, Democrats in Washington pushed through President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus plan with only minor changes, highlighted by $1,400 checks going out to lower and middle income people. By Friday value stocks retained a leadership position while emerging markets and growth oriented sectors lagged. The US 10-year broke to a new 1-year high at 1.63% and the spread to the 2-year approached 150 bps for the first time since 2015. For the week, the DJIA surged 4.1%, the S&P added 2.6%, and the Nasdaq rebounded 3.1%.

In corporate news for this week, Oracle shares dipped following its Q3 earnings, after the software giant posted a beat on top and bottom line but issued softer guidance than anticipated. Disney announced its Disney+ streaming service has reached over 100M global paid subscribers after just 16 months. Private equity firm Apollo announced it would re-merge back with Athene in an $11B all-stock transaction in order to boost investor confidence in the life insurance giant in which it already owns a 35% stake. PayPal announced plans to acquire Curv, a crypto firm which specializes in security infrastructure for digital assets. AerCap confirmed it would combine with GE Capital Aviation Services as GE sheds debts and moves to fold the remainder of its GE Capital unit into its corporate operations. A news report noted that Salesforce is said to be grooming its COO Taylor to eventually take over the CEO role from Marc Benioff, though no precise timeline was given. Netflix is said to be piloting a crackdown on password-sharing among different households in a move that could shake up shared accounts among family and friends throughout the streaming industry.


SUN 3/7
(CN) Summary of China Fourth Session of 13th National People's Congress (NPC) sets 2021 GDP target of more than 6%, CPI ~3%, outlines 14th 5 year plan for 2021-2025

MON 3/8
(US) Appaloosa's David Tepper: Getting bullish on US stocks - CNBC
(US) Feb NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: expected changes in gas prices and rents both rise; One year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.1% in Feb vs 3.0% in Jan (highest since Jan 2014)

TUES 3/9
DPW.DE Reports final Q4 Net €1.30B v €858M y/y, EBIT €1.97B v €1.98B prelim, Rev €19.1B v €19.1B prelim
CON.DE Reports prelim FY20 Rev €37.7B v €37.6Be; No dividend proposal for 2021
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.7% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: -4.9% V -5.0%E
(US) President Biden said to nominate Lina Khan to FTC - Politico
IPOE Sofi to acquire national charter bank Golden Pacific Bancorp for $2.55/shr valued at $22.3M
COIN Said to price IPO between $350-375/shr during Nasdaq's private auction implying $90-100B valuation - press
(EU) EU reportedly seeking to double share of world microchip market by 2030 for digital independence
DIS CEO: Disney+ has hit over 100M global paid subscribers after just 16 months - AGM comments
V Reports Feb US payments +9% y/y

WEDS 3/10
GE Affirms FY21 $0.15-0.25 v $0.24e, Industrial FCF $2.5-4.5B**; Board will recommend that shareholders approve a reverse stock split at a ratio of 1-for-8, effective May 4th
AER Confirms to acquire GE Capital Aviation Services in cash and stock deal valued at >$30B
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +13.8M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -11.9M V -3ME; DISTILLATE: -5.5M V -3.5ME
*(US) TREASURY'S $38B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.523%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.38 V 2.47 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS
*(US) FEB MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$310.9B V -$305.0BE
(US) House passes the $1.9T Covid relief bill
ORCL Reports Q3 $1.16 v $1.11e, Rev $10.1B v $10.1Be; Increases share buyback by $20B (9.4% of market cap), raises dividend 33% to $0.32 from $0.24
RBLX IPO direct listing opens for trade at $64.50

THURS 3/11
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Leaves PEPP envelope's size unchanged, but pace will be significantly faster over next quarter
(EU) European Core and peripheral yields lower as ECB pledged to significantly pick up pace of PEPP purchases in next quarter
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 712K V 725KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.14M V 4.20ME
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Uncertainty remains in near term but economy to improve over course of 2021- Prepared Remarks
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min): Public finances much more sensitive to interest rate changes than they used to be
VZ Reportedly has received $109B in orders for its spectrum bond sale - press
*(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.295%; BID TO COVER 2.28 V 2.47 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
TMUS Sees potential shareholder buybacks of up to $60B in 2023-2025; Raises EBITDA guidance; Targets cumulative FCF ~$65B through 2025 - investor day slides
NFLX Reportedly piloting a crackdown on password-sharing - tech blog
DOCU Reports Q4 $0.37 v $0.22e, Rev $430.9M v $407Me
(CN) US puts new limits on licenses for some suppliers to Huawei; informs suppliers that Huawei licenses are not valid for 5G use - financial press

FRI 3/12
DBK.DE Guides FY21 Rev 'to be marginally lower' y/y
700.HK Reportedly Tencent is facing broad China clampdown on fintech and deals - press
AT&T Affirms FY21 Adj EPS stable y/y, Rev +1% range; Raises FY25 120-150M HBO Max/HBO subscribers (prior 75-90M)
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +259.2K V +75.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.2% V 9.2%E
(EU) Reportedly EU Commission is in intensive dialogue with member states over recovery fund plans; most member state recovery fund plans are currently deemed as inadequate – press
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 83.0 V 78.5E (highest since Mar 2020)

Continued recovery optimism energizes rates and wobbles stocks

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Continued recovery optimism energizes rates and wobbles stocks

2021-03-05T16:06:24.233

Stock market volatility continued this week alongside rising interest rates. Adding to the consternation surrounding rising rates and its potential signal on inflation, crude oil prices surged 10% in the back half of the week, to over one-year highs, after OPEC decided against raising production in any meaningful way. The US 10-year yield traded back above 1.5% and rising inflation expectations were evident when the 5-year TIPS breakeven topped 2.5% for the first time since 2008. Speculative growth, in particular small caps, bore the brunt of a significant drawdown in equity markets, while value stocks performed much better, led by a resurgent energy complex.

Bond yields surged on Thursday after Fed Chairman Powell failed to signal that the recent jump in market rates was worrisome enough to force to central bank to adjust asset purchase in an attempt to manipulate rates lower. Stocks wobbled noticeably after he repeated a highly dovish mantra that the Fed will remain patient and is nowhere near reaching the policy goals that are the prerequisites for beginning the process of reversing accommodative policy. The stronger than expected February employment report on Friday was decidedly positive, thanks in large part to a rebound of 355K jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector. The jobs numbers capped of a week of generally strong economic reports and caused some to question the timing and size of Democrats $1.9B fiscal stimulus package which remained on track to get through the Senate this weekend. The US dollar tracked to its highest levels since November and gold prices dipped below $1,700 for the first time in nearly a year. For the week, the S&P eked out a 0.8% gain, the DJIA rose 1.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.

In corporate news this week, big box retailer Target handily beat expectations but is still unable to provide guidance due to uncertainty over the pandemic. Walmart updated its 10-year investment plan, announcing it would spend $350B over the next decade to support 750K new jobs related to US-made and assembled items. In the tech sector Hewlett Packard Enterprise beat expectations and raised guidance, diminishing the impact of the punishing sell off that hit the rest of the stock market. Micron also held up relatively well as it raised Q2 guidance substantially. Google is trying to get ahead of the curve on a coming reckoning on the use of personal data -- the tech giant is reportedly planning to stop using ad tools that track users across websites in 2022, and will stop selling ads based on individuals' browsing history. Amgen announced it will acquire cancer drug developer Five Prime Therapeutics in a $1.9B all-cash deal.


SUN 2/28
*(CN) CHINA FEB MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.6 V 51.0E (12th month of expansion)
(HK) Macau Feb Casino Rev (MOP): 7.3B v 8.0B prior; Y/Y: +135.6% v 145%e

MON 3/1
*(IT) ITALY FEB MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.9 V 56.8E (8th month of expansion and highest since Jan 2018)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.7 V 60.6E (confirms 8th month of expansion and highest since Jan 2018)
*(US) FEB FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.6 V 58.5E (lowest since Dec 2020)
*(US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 60.8 V 58.6E; PRICES PAID: 86.0 V 80.0E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q1 GDP to 10.0% from 8.8%
SQ Starts Banking, Loan operations after obtaining FDIC approvals in Utah
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.10%, AS EXPECTED; MAINTAINS 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET AT 0.10%; MAINTAINS A$100B BOND BUYING PROGRAM

TUES 3/2
(DE) GERMANY FEB NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +9.0K V -10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMANT RATE: 6.0% V 6.0%E
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y:1.1% V 1.1%E
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia will respond to any new US sanctions
TGT Reports Q4 $2.67 v $2.54e, Rev $28.3B v $27.5Be; Not providing any guidance
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +15% v +3.0% prior
HPE Reports Q1 $0.52 v $0.40e, Rev $6.83B v $6.78Be
(HK) Macau casinos will no longer require nucleic acid test certificate to enter, effective Midnight March 3rd

WED 3/3
*(IT) ITALY FEB SERVICES PMI: 48.8 V 45.7E (7th month of contraction)
*(FR) FRANCE FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.6 V 43.6E (confirms 6th straight contraction)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.7 V 45.9E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 45.7 V 44.7E (confirms 6th straight contraction)
*(UK) FEB FINAL SERVICES PMI: 49.5 V 49.7E (confirms 4th straight contraction)
*(EU) ECB SAID TO SEE NO NEED FOR DRASTIC ACTION TO CURB BOND YIELDS - financial press
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min) Budget speech: Damage to the economy has been acute; will do whatever it takes
*(US) FEB ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +117K V +205KE
GOOGL Reportedly plans to stop using or investing in ad tools which track users across websites in 2022; will stop selling ads based on individuals' browsing history - press
MU Raises Q2 $0.93-0.98 v $0.72e, Rev $6.2-6.25B v $5.83Be, gross margin 32-33% (prior $0.68-0.82, Rev $5.6-6.0B, gross margin 30-32%)
*(US) FEB ISM SERVICES INDEX: 55.3 V 58.7E (lowest reading since May 2020)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +21.6M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -13.6M V -2ME; DISTILLATE: -9.7M V -3ME
WMT Plans to spend $350B over 10 years to support 750K new jobs related to US-made and US-assembled items
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min): We have to get borrowing and debt under control - press conf

THUR 3/4
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 8.3%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: -5.9% V -1.4%E; Y/Y: -6.4% V -1.2%E (largest declines since last April)
AAPL Reportedly UK CMA investigates Apple over suspected anti-competitive behavior - press
FPRX To be acquired by Amgen for $38.00/shr in cash valued at $1.9B
FAST Reports Feb net sales $437.7M, +1.5% y/y
*(US) Q4 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -4.2% V -4.7%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 6.0% V 6.6%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 745K V 750KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.30M V 4.30ME
OPEC+ decides it will not hike output by 500K in April, according to delegate source; Russia and Kazakhstan will receive exemption from OPEC+ supply agreement
(US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues 30-year budget projections: forecasts annual GDP growth 1.8% over next 30 years (prior: 1.6%)

FRI 3/5
(US) FEB CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +379K V +200KE
(US) FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.2% V 6.3%E
(IN) India said to threaten to jail some Facebook and Twitter employees in attempt to quash political protests - press
US and EU have reached an agreement to suspend tariffs on Boeing-Airbus for 4 months
(US) Fed’s Bullard (non-voter): We have the right policy for this situation: do not see an Operation Twist as an option right now

Rates continue rising in anticipation of economic recovery, spurring inflation jitters

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Rates continue rising in anticipation of economic recovery, spurring inflation jitters

2021-02-26T16:15:09.487

Global equity markets hit a notable rough patch this week as investors’ uneasiness with rising interest rates came to the forefront. The VIX volatility index surged back to 30 as growth stocks in particular took a beating, and the S&P tested its 50-day moving average for the first time in a month. Adding to the consternation was another eye-popping move in the Reddit stocks, led by GameStop, once again on little if any apparent news. Economic data came in generally better than expectations, while various vaccine developments remained encouraging, which supported a narrative growth is poised to surge later this year. On Thursday the Treasury’s 7-year note auction saw anemic demand despite the discount participants enjoyed, exacerbating the tail wind for rising rates. The US 10-year yield briefly spiked to 1.6% before holding ground at 1.5% which is also roughly the dividend yield of the S&P 500, yet still below where it traded less than year ago heading into the pandemic. A chorus of Fed officials were eager to downplay the move up in Treasury yields and any associated concerns about inflation. Nevertheless debates surrounding the likely effects of the incoming US fiscal stimulus and central bank policies as they relate to the neutral level of real interest rates raged on Wall Street. Gold prices slipped to the lowest levels since last summer while WTI crude pushed further above $60/barrel, retracing levels not seen in about a year. For the week, the S&P lost 2.5%, the DJIA fell 1.8%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 4.9%.

In corporate news this week, Home Depot shares jumped after reporting Q4 top and bottom line beats, as comp sales surged 25%. Toll Brothers quarterly results came in above already high analyst expectations, and the homebuilder said it expects very strong market conditions to continue for the "foreseeable future.” Nvidia EPS and Rev topped estimates again, with the chipmaker guiding well above consensus, though shares fell amid a broad market sell off on Thursday. Macy’s holiday sales beat estimates with a look to build momentum in the back half of 2021. Twitter announced ahead of its analyst day a new target to double its annual revenue from $3.7B in FY20 to $7.5B or more by 2023. Facebook reversed its ban on providing news content in Australia, striking a deal to pay three news publishers as the government passed an amended version of its digital news payment law. AT&T announced plans to spin off its DirecTV, AT&T TV, and U-verse video services into a $16B separate entity as part of a deal with private equity firm TPG. Goodyear said it would acquire rival Cooper Tires in a $2.8B cash and stock deal, merging two of the largest remaining American-owned tire manufacturers. AMC will reopen all of its 13 theaters in NYC beginning March 5th after Governor Cuomo loosened COVID restrictions in the city. Beyond Meat announced it has inked long-term deals with McDonald's and YUM Brands, helping to shore up the plant-based foodmaker’s future despite posting a wider loss in Q4 than anticipated.


MON 2/22
5.HK Reports FY20 Adj pretax $12.1B v $22.1B y/y, Adj Rev $50.4B v $54.9B y/y; resumes interim dividend at $0.15/shr, no stock buybacks in near term
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: 42K have registered for COVID vaccine as of 9AM
MRNA President Hoge: FDA has given positive feedback on proposal that may allow up to 15 doses to be drawn from each vial - press citing testimony
CCIV Confirms Lucid Motors to go public in merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV; transaction valued at $11.8B
EZJ.UK Says travel bookings surge as UK announces reopening plan; summer flight bookings up 337% w/w and holiday bookings up 630% - press
AMC To reopen all 13 of our theaters in New York City beginning March 5th
NY Gov Cuomo confirms movie theaters in New York City can reopen at 25% capacity beginning March 15th - press
(US) NJ Gov Murphy confirms signing Cannabis legislation for state into law as expected
*(US) FEB DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 17.2 V 8.5E
*(US) JAN LEADING INDEX: 0.5% V 0.4%E
PFPT Enters into definitive agreement to acquire data loss protection managed services provider InteliSecure for $62.5M in cash
PENN Secures sports betting and online casino market access in New York through strategic partnership with Rivers Casino
BHVN BHV-1200, A Multimodal Antibody Therapy Enhancer (MATE), Demonstrates Effective Neutralization Of Multiple Strains Of COVID-19
CTB To be acquired by Goodyear at $54.36/shr in $2.8B in cash and shares in deal valued at $2.5B
*(DE) GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 92.4 V 90.5E

TUES 2/23
880.HK Reports FY20 (HK$) Net -3.03B v +3.2B y/y, adj EBITDA -2.1B v +4.2B y/y; Rev 7.3B v 33.2B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: % V 1.4%E
HD Reports Q4 $2.74 adj v $2.61e, Rev $32.3B v $30.7Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 10% to $1.65 from $1.50 (indicated yield 2.39%)
M Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.19e, Rev $6.78B v $6.55Be; Repaid ~$530M of debt in January 2021 at maturity; Sees momentum building in back half of 2021
USAP Announces base price increase of 3-10% on all products, effective next week
GOOGL Google partners with Intel to accelerate cloud-native 5G - press
*(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 16E
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 91.3 V 90.0E
(US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index: +3.9 v -17.5 prior
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer: senators will offer a bill to strengthen the tech sector and limit Beijing's unfair practices; Looking at funding for semiconductor program in the US
TOL Reports Q1 $0.76 v $0.49e, Rev $1.56B v $1.37Be; Sees very strong mkt conditions to continue for "foreseeable future"
NKE Tiger Woods involved in a serious car accident; car sustained 'major damage'; Woods was extricated from wreck with 'jaws of life' and has been transported to local hospital - LA County Sheriff's Department
(HK) Hong Kong confirms increase to stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.13% - 2021/22 budget (*8Note: 1st increase since 1993)

WEDS 2/24
*(DE) GERMANY Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: -3.7% V -3.9%E
EXC To separate Utility and Competitive Energy Businesses Into two Industry-Leading Companies
(ZA) South Africa Fin Min Mboweni 2021/22 budget presentation: Abandon plans to raise ZAR40B in extra taxes
JNJ Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) February 26, 2021 Meeting Briefing Document Posted for review related to Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of Janssen's Ad26.COV2.S, investigational single-shot COVID-19 vaccine candidate
*(US) JAN NEW HOME SALES: 923K V 856KE
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +1.3M V -5ME; GASOLINE: +0.0M V -3ME; DISTILLATE: -5.0M V -4.5ME
(US) National Retail Federation (NRF): sees fastest economic growth in two decades
27.HK Reports FY20 (HK$) Net -3.8B v +13.3B y/y; adj EBITDA -1.0B v +16.5B y/y; Rev 12.88B v 51.9B y/y

THURS 2/25
BA.UK Reports FY20 adj EPS 46.8p v 50.8p, adj EBITA £2.13B v £2.12B, Rev £20.9B v £20.1B y/y
(IN) India to implement rules for social media, digital media and streaming operations in 3 months time; calls need for level playing field
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 93.4 V 92.1E
V Intuit files suit against Visa, MA over "unlawful" price fixing - blog
BBY Reports Q4 $3.48 v $3.47e, Rev $16.9B v $17.2Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 27.3% to $0.70 from $0.55 (indicated yield 2.47%); Approves new $5.0B share buyback
*(US) JAN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 3.4% V 1.1%E; DURABLE GOODS (EX-TRANSPORTATION: 1.4% V 0.7%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 730K V 825KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.42M V 4.46ME
*(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.1% V 2.0%E; CORE PCE 1.4% V 1.4%E
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $761.8M, -27% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $321.5M, -44% y/y
*(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -2.8% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 8.2% V 22.8% PRIOR
*(US) TREASURY $62B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 1.195%; BID-TO-COVER: 2.04 V 2.30 PRIOR
(US) 10-year note yield jumps above S&P div yield of 1.5% after very poor 7-year auction
BYND Announces Strategic Global Agreement with McDonald’s; preferred supplier for the patty in the McPlant
BYND Announces Global Strategic Partnership with Yum! Brands to Offer Signature Plant-Based Menu Items
PFE Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Allows More Flexible Storage, Transportation Conditions for Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine; FDA allowing Undiluted Frozen Vials of Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine to be Transported and Stored at Conventional Temperatures Commonly Found in Pharmaceutical Freezers for Up to Two Weeks
T AT&T & TPG to form new entity to operate AT&T’s U.S. video unit, consisting of the DIRECTV, AT&T TV and U-verse video services
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) TO BUY UP TO A$3.0B IN GOVT SECURITIES TO DEFEND 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET (Unscheduled operation)
*(US) SENATE PARLIMENTARIAN: MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE TO $15/HR RULED OUT OF ORDER FOR CORONAVIRUS STIMULUS

FRI 2/26
VOW3.DE Reports FY20 Net €8.82B v €13.4B y/y, adj Op €10.6B v €10B prelim, Rev €222.9B v €221.6Be
*(US) JAN PERSONAL INCOME: 10.0% V 9.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 2.4% V 2.5%E
*(US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
(US) FEB FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 76.8 V 76.5E
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q1 forecast to 8.7% from 8.3%
(SA) US issues report on killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi; assesses that Saudi Arabia Prince MBS "approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill journalist Khashoggi"

TradeTheNews.com 

 Stocks and bond yield rise as inflation signals remain dormant

2021-02-12T16:12:35.747

Stocks hovered in record territory this week, buoyed by movement toward a fresh round of stimulus spending, strong corporate earnings and apparent progress in the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines. With quarterly results in from about three-quarters of S&P 500 companies, more than 80% have surpassed estimates and many management teams have signaled they have enough clarity to begin providing forecasts for the new fiscal year. Wednesday’s CPI figures were once again softer than expected but did little to quell the markets’ rising inflation expectations. Crude oil prices continued to rise along with interest rates helped by the belief the Biden administration will remain aggressive in delivering on campaign promises. WTI crude hit a one-year high just under $60/bbl, while the 30-year bond yield edged above 2.00% for the first time in a year. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed will not even entertain the idea of withdrawing monetary policy support until the pandemic is over and that he does not expect any sustained inflation gains in the near term. For the week, the S&P gained 1.2%, the DJIA was up 1%, and the Nasdaq added 1.7%.

In corporate news this week, Disney posted beats on its Q1 top and bottom lines as it continues to exceed expectations for its streaming service subscriber numbers. Nucor issued some guidance, noting it is encouraged by ‘positive economic trends and robust demand’ that it is seeing across its markets. Twitter shares continued their rise back toward 2013 highs as ad sales boosted Q4 revenue to a new record level. GM said it would have to extend production cuts through mid-March at three North American plants due to global semiconductor shortages, which it foresees impacting its FY21 outlook. Separately Ford noted that it expects some relief from the chip drought by Q2 and hopes to make up for its lost production. On the crypto front, Bank of New York Mellon confirmed plans to form a new digital assets division to develop a multi-asset platform which would include cryptocurrencies. Tesla said it invested $1.5B of cash into Bitcoin and plans to begin accepting it as a payment in the near future. In M&A news, EA agreed to acquire game developer Gluu Mobile in a $2B deal. Microsoft reportedly made an approach to acquire Pinterest in recent months but the talks are not ongoing. Amazon-backed EV maker Rivian is said to be considering an IPO this year, which could be valued north of $50B.


MON 2/8
(US) Jan NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: survey shows increased optimism; expectations of future consumer spending surge in Jan

TUES 2/9
PFE Expects almost 50% Cut in COVID-19 vaccine production time (production time could drop from about 110 days to about 60 days)
NUE Guides Q1 net earnings >$900M; encouraged by positive economic trends and the robust demand we are seeing across our markets
GM To extend production cuts caused by semiconductor shortages at three N.A. production plants through mid-March - press
7203.JP Reports 9M Net ¥1.47T v ¥1.71T y/y; Op ¥1.51T v ¥2.04T y/y; Rev ¥19.53T v ¥22.97T y/y

WEDS 2/10
(CN) Fitch: China Internet Majors Remain Resilient to Macro, Regulatory Risks
HEIA.NL Reports FY20 Net -€88M v +€2.37B y/y Op €788M v €3.63B y/y, Rev €23.8B v €28.5B y/y; To cut 8k jobs saving ~€350M p.a
KO Reports Q4 $0.47 v $0.41e, Rev $8.60B v $8.74Be
GM Reports Q4 $1.93 v $1.62e, Rev $37.5B v $36.9Be; Semiconductor shortage to impact FY21 outlook
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Reiterates stance that fiscal policy needs to complement monetary policy - webinar comments
GM CEO: $7B of the FY21 Capex target of $9-10B dedicated to EVS and AVS - post earnings comments
*(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; CPI (EX-FOOD/ENERGY) M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 261.582 V 261.800E
GME Executives from Melvin Capital, Robinhood and Citadel expected to testify in DC - press
*(US) DEC FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -6.6M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: +4.3M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V -1ME
*(US) JAN MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$162.8B V -$150.0BE
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Fed will be patiently accommodative with monetary policy; Fed will maintain support until it has achieved job and inflation goals; will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to strong labor market
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 6th: 495.8K, +2.2% y/y
(US) President Biden Admin issues readout of call with China President Xi; talks about trade, climate, human rights
(CN) China President Xi: Cooperation is only correct choice for China and US, US and China should respect each other, properly manage disputes constructively - Comments after call with Biden

THURS 2/11
MT.NL Reports Q4 Net $1.21B v -$1.88B y/y, EBITDA $1.73B v $925M; Rev $14.2B v $15.5B y/y; Names Aditya Mittal CEO; proposes to restart dividend payments
AZN.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS $1.07 v $1.09e, Rev $7.41B v $7.2Be
RDS.A Sets out its strategy to accelerate its transformation into a provider of net-zero emissions energy products and services: Affirmed near-term annual cash Capex of $19-22B
OPEC Monthly Oil Report: global economy is showing signs of a healthy recovery in 2021
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 793K V 760KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.545M V 4.42ME
BK Confirms to form New Digital Assets Unit to build industry's first multi-asset digital platform, including cryptocurrencies
PYPL CEO Schulman: PayPal Digital Wallet app to potentially have investing platform capabilities along with banking capabilities - investor day comments
(US) White House official: Biden administration is working aggressively on semiconductor shortage; chip supply is a key issue in an upcoming executive order
(UK) Foreign Min Raab: decision by Chinese govt to ban BBC broadcasting in China is unacceptable
*(US) TREASURY $27B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 1.933%; BID TO COVER 2.18 V 2.29 PRIOR AND 2.33 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS

FRI 2/12
*(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -7.8% V -8.1%E
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Prepared to break off relationship with EU if the bloc imposes sanctions that damage Russia’s economy
CPNG Files to sell $1B IPO shares on NYSE - filing
COHR Confirms receipt of cash and stock offer of $260/shr from II-VI in $5.8B in cash and share deal
(US) FEB PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 76.2 V 80.9E
(IT) Mario Draghi officially confirms he can form a govt and will accept post as Italy PM

Stocks surge as Biden stimulus plan stays on track for quick passage

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Stocks surge as Biden stimulus plan stays on track for quick passage

2021-02-05T16:21:32.447

US stock markets surged this week enjoying the best weekly performance in months and by Friday US indices were once again hitting new all-time highs. The air finally started come out of the Reddit stocks as several Fed officials noted the stock volatility was not a matter for monetary policy. The Democrats and President Biden pressed forward with plans to provide substantial additional fiscal relief by paving a legislative path for the stimulus plan even if Republicans ultimately prove unwilling to sign on. By Friday, Speaker Pelosi indicated she was confident the House will send a Covid relief package to the Senate within two weeks and was already alluding to an additional recovery bill and an infrastructure package in the near future.

Global PMI figures remained solid despite the extension of many pandemic lockdowns in Europe and rising post-holiday case counts in the US last month. US Fed officials emphasized they remained willing to let the economy run hot and that they were unlikely to begin discussions of tapering asset purchases anytime soon given the uncertainty around the ongoing pandemic. The BOE pushed back on the notion that now is the appropriate time to prepare for negative rates putting upward pressure on GILT yields and buoying the Pound. Friday’s January jobs report disappointed coming in short of expectations on payrolls. Though the unemployment rate receded, it came at least partially at the expense of a decline in the participation rate. WTI crude closed the week near a fresh 1-year high, inducing inflation expectations to continue creeping higher. Treasury yields backed up further pushing the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate near 2.2% for the first time since 2018. Stocks had their best week in 3 months: the S&P gained 4.7%, the DJIA was up 3.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 6%.

In corporate news this week, Google posted blowout earnings numbers as its core advertising business rebounded and cloud revenue came in line with estimates. Amazon notched its highest quarterly revenue number of all time and announced CEO Bezos would step back to the executive chairman role. Ford said it plans to double its previous commitment to electric vehicles, boosting its planned investment to $22B, while also launching a partnership with Google to accelerate its transformation and improve its connected vehicle experience. Apple reportedly neared a deal with Hyundai-Kia to build Apple autonomous EVs at a Kia plant in Georgia, likely starting in 2024. Early in the week reports came out that Exxon and Chevron CEOs had discussed a potential merger last year when oil prices sank, but the discussions were said to only have been in the preliminary stages.


SUN 1/31
XOM Reportedly Exxon & Chevron CEOs discussed potential merger in 2020; discussion said to have been in early stage - press
*(CN) CHINA JAN MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.3 V 51.5E (11th month of expansion, 2nd consecutive month of slowing expansion)
(HK) Macau Jan Casino Rev (MOP): 8.0B v 7.8B prior; Y/Y: -63.7% v -67.0%e

MON 2/1
*(IT) ITALY JAN MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.1 V 52.4E (7th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY JAN FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.1 V 57.0E
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.3% V 8.3%E
AAPL To sell USD-denominated 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year and 40-year bonds (6 tranches in total)
*(US) JAN FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.2 V 59.1E (series record)
*(US) JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 58.7 V 60.0E; PRICES PAID: 82.1 V 75.5E (highest prices paid since April 2011)
(US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues 2020-2024 economic projections: upgrades economic outlook; sees GDP reaching pre-pandemic peak by mid-2021, unemployment to fall to 5.3% by end of 2021
F Ford and Google launch six-year partnership to accelerate Ford's transformation and reinvent the connected vehicle experience
(US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, non-voter): There is still slack in the economy; there is a long way to go before we get economy fully reopened
(US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: to borrow $274B in Jan-Mar quarter v $175Be (prior estimate to borrow $1.127T)
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.10%, AS EXPECTED; MAINTAINS 3-YEAR YIELD TARGET AT 0.10%; MAINTAINS A$100B BOND BUYING PROGRAM AND WILL PURCHASE ADDITIONAL A$100B IN BONDS WHEN CURRENT PROGRAM EXPIRES

TUES 2/2
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: -0.7% V -0.9%E; Y/Y: -5.1% V -5.3%
HOL Astra to Become the First Publicly Traded Space Launch Company on NASDAQ via Merger with Holicity for implied EV of $2.1B
XOM Reports Q4 $0.03 v $0.01e, Rev $46.5B v $48.6Be; Records first annual loss in at least 40 years
ATOS Phase 2 Endoxifen Breast Cancer Study Produces Substantially Positive Results Allowing Study to be Halted Early
GOOGL Reports Q4 $22.30 v $15.91e, Rev $46.4B v $44.1Be
AMZN Reports Q4 $14.09 v $7.05e, Rev $125.6B v $120.4Be; Announces CEO transition; Jeff Bezos announces transition to Exec Chairman
992.HK Reports Q3 Net $395M v $258M y/y, Rev $17.3B v $14.1B y/y (record high Net and Rev)

WEDS 2/3
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net €1.38B v €864Me, Industrial Business EBITA €2.13B v €1.67Be, Rev €14.1B v €13.4Be; Raises FY21 comp Rev, Net guidance
VOD.UK Issues Q3 Trading update: Q3 Rev €11.2B v €11.8B y/y; Return to service revenue growth and FY21 guidance reiterated
*(IT) ITALY JAN PMI SERVICES: 44.7 V 39.5E (5th month of contraction)
*(FR) FRANCE JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 47.3 V 46.5E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(DE) GERMANY JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 46.7 V 46.8E (confirms 4th straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 45.4 V 45.0E (confirms 5th straight contraction)
*(UK) JAN FINAL PMI SERVICES: 39.5 V 38.8E (confirms 3rd straight contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.6%E; CPI CORE Y/Y:1.4% V 0.9%E (core reading a 5-year high)
*(US) JAN ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +174K V +50KE; Now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well
*(US) JAN ISM SERVICES INDEX: 58.7 V 56.7E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.0M V -0.5ME; GASOLINE: +4.5M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -0.0M V -0.5ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 30th: 520.7K, +2.1% y/y
EBAY Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.83e, Rev $2.87B v $2.70Be; Raises dividend 13% to $0.18/shr

THURS 2/4
NOK Reports Q4 non- IFRS EPS €0.14 v €0.15 y/y, Rev €6.57B v €6.51Be; Does not propose dividend for 2020
ROG.CH Reports FY20 (CHF) Core EPS 19.16 v 19.36e, Core Op 21.54B v 21.7Be, Rev 58.3B v 61.5B y/y; Expects to further increase dividend
NOKIA.FI Reports Q4 Net €M v €M y/y, Rev €6.57M v €M y/y
DBK.DE Reports Q4 Net €51M v -€1.60B y/y, Pretax €175M v -€22.4Me, Net Rev €5.45B v €5.34B y/y
RDSA.NL Reports Q4 CCS EPS $0.05 v $0.37, Adj CCS Net $393M v 2.93B, Rev $45.0B v $85.1B
UNA.NL Reports FY20 Net €5.58B v €7.0Be, adj Op €8.3B v €B, Rev €50.7B v €50.9Be
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: 2.0% V 2.8%E; Y/Y: 0.6% V 1.2%E
TW Reports Jan ADV $1.0T , +29.5% y/y
FAST Reports Jan net sales $448.0M, -3.2% y/y
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED; does not intend to send signal that negative rates coming, but appropriate to get ready for negative rates if needed
*(UK) BOE FEB MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Spare capacity seen being eliminated over 2021- post Rate Decision Press Conference
*(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY UNIT LABOR COSTS: 6.8% V 4.0%E; NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -4.8% V -3.0%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 779K V 830KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.592M V 4.70ME
F Raises Planned Investment in EV, AV Leadership to $29B; Further Advances Turnaround of Global Automotive Business in Q4

FRI 2/5
SAN.FR Reports Q4 Business EPS €1.22 v €1.22 y/y, Business Net €1.53B v €1.53B, Rev €9.38B v €9.38Be
*(US) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.0%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 35.0 V 34.7E
*(US) JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +49K V +105KE; Manufacturing Payrolls back to negative
AMZN Reportedly plans to train hundreds of people to launch their own trucking businesses exclusively to transport Amazon packages amid shortage of trucking companies to handle sufficient amount of freight - The Information
(US) DEC CONSUMER CREDIT: $9.73B V $12.0BE

Wall Street distracted by WallStreetBets; vaccines continue choppy roll out

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Wall Street distracted by WallStreetBets; vaccines continue choppy roll out

2021-01-29T16:18:47.877

It was a historically wild week on Wall Street to say the least, as the Reddit revolution captured the attention of the trading world. Earnings season was largely an afterthought despite roughly 25% of the S&P reporting results and many firms showing increased willingness to provide outlooks into 2021. Gamestop was the posterchild for a basket of highly shorted stocks targeted by WallStreetBets that soared by previously unthinkable amounts without offering up any fundamental news. By midweek high profile hedge fund Melvin Capital was in need of a rescue, sparking concerns that others were like confronting huge losses on their short positions as well. Some trading platforms, most notably Robinhood, were forced to temporarily curtail trading in the targeted stocks in the name of risk management. The overall market saw a surge in volatility and investors took profits despite outstanding earnings releases in many cases, as worries that the excess speculation seen in certain pockets is the latest harbinger of an impending stock market reckoning. For the week, the S&P and DJIA each lost 3.3%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

In corporate news this week, overall efficacy data for J&J’s vaccine failed to meet that of Pfizer or Moderna’s, but officials were quick to say the news remains positive, pointing in particular to the single-dose vaccination’s strength in preventing severe disease and hospitalizations. Moderna revealed that its COVID-19 vaccine loses potency against some of the most worrying emerging variants from the UK and South Africa, though the shots still retain neutralizing activity against them. ­Facebook notched record revenue and earnings in its Q4, thanks to strong online holiday shopping numbers and a pandemic-related boost to its ad business. Apple posted a blowout Q1, tallying over $100B in revenue for the first time, lifted by a strong sales cycle for its iPhone 12 line. Tesla reported its first full-year profit on record vehicle deliveries and forecast a 50% long-term annual growth in vehicle sales going forward. NXP and STMicroelectronics reportedly have begun telling customers that they’ll raise prices by 10-20% amid higher demand for chips used in cars and telecommunications equipment. Microsoft earnings impressed, reporting stronger Azure cloud growth than was anticipated. Starbucks COO Roz Brewer announced she would be leaving the coffee giant in order to take the CEO role at Walgreens.


SUN 1/24
NXPI NXP and STMicroelectronics said to have informed customers they will increase prices by 10-20% due to higher demand for chips used in cars and telecommunications equipment - Nikkei
(TW) US, UK, Germany and Japan have all asked Taiwan to increase chip supply for auto industry - Nikkei

MON 1/25
(UK) UK reportedly faces three-month 'halfway house' lockdown after Easter to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine - The Telegraph
*(DE) GERMANY JAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 90.1 V 91.4E
MRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa; Lower titers may suggest a potential risk of earlier waning of immunity to the new B.1.351 strains
*(US) JAN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 7.0 V 12.0E
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer: will try to pass stimulus in a month or a month-and-a-half
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Digital innovations in payments are here to say; don't think cryptocurrencies are lasting yet - webinar comments
(IT) More speculation that PM Conte would likely to resign after informing the cabinet today or tomorrow; hopes to win mandate from Pres Mattarella to form a new govt - press
STLD Reports Q4 $0.97 v $0.62 y/y, Rev $2.60B v $2.35B y/y; sees continued steel price strength
MRNA Exec: expect durability of protection from primary series of our COVID vaccine to be a year or longer - conf call comments

TUES 1/26
UBSG.CH Reports Q4 Net $1.71B v $722M y/y; Adj Pretax $2.06B v $1.2B y/y; Rev $8.12B v $7.05B y/y; To launch new buyback of up to CHF4B; Proposes $0.37/shr dividend for 2020
GE Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.08e, Rev $21.9B v $21.3Be
MMM Reports Q4 $2.38 v $2.19e, Rev $8.58B v $8.49Be
VZ Reports Q4 $1.21 v $1.16e, Rev $34.7B v $34.4Be
PCAR Reports Q4 $1.17 v $1.21e, Rev $5.57B v $5.03Be; Class 8 EV truck climbs Pikes Peak - EV truck production to begin Q2 2021
BAC CEO: Jan consumer spending is up 9% on the year; we feel very constructive about consumer activity - CNBC interview
*(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING: 14 V 19E
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 89.3 V 89.0E
(US) Pres Biden executive order to instruct DOJ to not renew contracts with private prisons - press
MSFT Reports Q2 $2.03 v $1.64e, Rev $43.1B v $40.1Be
WBA Reportedly to name outgoing Starbucks exec Roz Brewer as new CEO; announcement could come later this week - press
005930.KR Reportedly plans to boost FY21 chip capex to KRW35T, +20% y/y (~$31.8B) v ~KRW29T y/y; will focus on Xi'an No 2 plant in china and Pyeongtaek No 2 plant in Korea - Korean press
2330.TW Intel to outsource 3nm chips production to Taiwan Semi in 2022 – DigiTImes

WEDS 1/27
GME Reportedly Melvin Capital is out of GME position - CNBC
BA Reports Q4 -$15.25* v -$1.78e, Rev $15.3B v $15.3Be; 5 airlines return 787 MAX to daily service
*(US) DEC PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.2% V 1.0%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.7% V 0.5%E
(DE) Germany Economy Ministry cuts 2021 GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 3.0% (as speculated)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -9.9M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: +2.5M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -0.8M V -0.5ME
BMW.DE Reports prelim Q4 Automotive segment FCF €2.8B v €1.5B y/y, FY20 FCF €3.4B v €2.6B y/y (ahead of forecasts)
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 23rd: 529K, +9% y/y
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); PACE OF RECOVERY HAS MODERATED IN RECENT MONTHS
(US) Fed Chair Powell: reiterates Fed is strongly committed to achieving dual mandate; path ahead remains highly uncertain - post rate decision press conference
FB Reports Q4 $3.88 v $3.24e, Rev $28.1B v $26.4Be; Authorizes new buyback of up to $25B
CP Reports Q4 C$5.95 v C$4.93e, Rev C$2.01B v C$2.07Be
TSLA Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.90e, Rev $10.7B v $10.1Be
005930.KR Reports final Q4 (KRW) Net 6.6T v 5.2T y/y; Op 9.1T v 9.0T prelim; Rev 61.6T v 61T prelim

THURS 1/28
066570.KR Reports final FY20 (KRW) Net 2.06T v 180.0B y/y, Op 3.20T v 2.44T y/y, Rev 63.3T v 63.3T prelim
(HK) Macau Dec Hotel Occupancy Rate: 53.1% v 43.9% prior
DGE.UK Reports H1 Net £1.58B v £1.87B y/y, Adj Op £2.26B v £2.50B y/y, Rev £6.87B v £7.20B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 91.5 V 89.6E
MA Reports Q4 $1.64 v $1.51e, Rev $4.1B v $4.00Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 847K V 875KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.771M V 5.09ME
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 4.0% V 4.2%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.5% V 3.1%E
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.0% V 2.2%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.2%E
(US) Nevada reports Dec casino gaming Rev $683.7M, -35% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $292M, -50.7% y/y
*(US) DEC NEW HOME SALES: 842K V 870KE
*(US) DEC LEADING INDEX: 0.3% V 0.3%E
(US) South Africa COVID variant identified in the US after two cases diagnosed in South Carolina - press
DAI.DE Reports prelim FY20 adj EBIT €8.64B v €7.12Be, industrial FCF €8.26B v €5.3Be
AMGN StatNews' Feuerstein: BREAKING: 'A milestone in oncology’: $AMGN KRAS-blocking drug proves effective for lung cancer
SWKS Reports Q1 $3.36 v $2.08e, Rev $1.51B v $1.06Be

FRI 1/29
SAP.DE Reports final Q4 EPS €1.69 v €1.82 y/y; Op €2.77B v €2.77B prelim; Rev €7.54B v €7.54B prelim; Affirms guidance
*(FR) FRANCE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.3% V -4.0%E; Y/Y: -5.0% V -7.6%E
*(DE) GERMANY Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: -3.9% V -4.0%E
CAT Reports Q4 $2.12 v $1.46e, Rev $11.2B v $11.2Be
JNJ Announces single-shot Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Ad26.COV2.S, met primary endpoints in interim analysis of its Phase 3 ENSEMBLE Trial; 66% effective overall (72% effective in US) and 85% effective in stopping severe COVID-19
(US) SEC statement: agency is closely monitoring extreme price volatility; will review actions by entities that inhibit trading ability
*(US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -0.3% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 22.8% V 20.3%E
*(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 79.0 V 79.3E
(EU) ECB: to stress test 38 euro zone banks as part of the 2021 EU-wide stress tests led by the EBA