Fed dodges ‘taper tantrum’; corporate news remains upbeat

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Weekly Market Update: Fed dodges ‘taper tantrum’; corporate news remains upbeat

2021-06-18T16:04:00.847

All eyes were on the US Federal reserve coming into this week. Before Wednesday’s announcement US manufacturing data missed expectations, rates remained benign and key commodity prices outside of oil continued to fade further from the recent spike highs. That had many predicting the Fed would take up their forecasts for growth, inflation and rates in the quarterly SEP projections, which it did. Chairman Powell did stress what he still saw as the transitory nature of much of the current inflation push and reiterated the Fed dot plot should not be construed as a forecast and taken with a large grain of salt. Regardless, the median FOMC projection pulled forward two rate hikes into 2023 inducing a hawkish surprise for global markets. Stocks came under pressure along with gold and the US dollar rallied. Growth stocks came back into favor relative the value and banks in particular. Rates initially popped but the long end of the US Treasury curve quickly turned lower as traders put on flatteners in response the belief that Fed officials would not let inflation run away from them. On Friday the S&P tested the 50-day moving average for the first time in roughly a month. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard underscored Wednesday’s FOMC signal when he emphasized the hawkish shift was necessary given recent data, while also noting he currently expected the first Fed rate hike in late 2022. For the week, the S&P lost 1.9%, the DJIA fell 3.5%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%.

In corporate news this week, the European Union and the United States confirmed plans to extend tariff suspensions on aircraft for five years, putting a hold on the long-running dispute between Boeing and Airbus. Bank of America CEO Moynihan said his firm is seeing consumers credit/debit card spending up 20% v 2019 year to date, while JPMorgan CEO Dimon said his bank is prepared for higher rates and more inflation, as they also see card spending running up 20% versus 2019.

GM raised its planned spend on electric cars, saying it will boost EV and AV investments to $35B through 2025, up from its $27B prior investment, along with adding two more battery factories in the US. Ford raised its Q2 earnings guidance, citing improvement in its automotive business since April, driven by lower-than-anticipated costs and favorable market factors, despite the chip shortage running into next year. Another arrow was added to the quiver in the battle against COVID-19 as the Novavax vaccine was shown to be safe and effective in a US clinical trial. CureVac shares, however, plunged after reporting a disappointing 47% efficacy results for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Oracle shares dipped after coming up short on its Q1 earnings outlook, and the software giant said it planned to double cloud capex in 2022 in an effort to boost market share.


SUN 6/13
BTC/USD Tesla's Musk: Tesla only sold ~10% of holdings to confirm BTC could be liquidated easily without moving market. When there’s confirmation of reasonable (~50%) clean energy usage by miners with positive future trend, Tesla will resume allowing Bitcoin transactions." - tweet

MON 6/14
(AT) ECB's Holzmann (Austria): ECB is not in a dangerous zone but inflation concerns are rising
NVAX COVID-19 vaccine demonstrates 90% overall efficacy and 100% protection against moderate and severe disease in PREVENT-19 Phase 3 trial; Intends to file for regulatory approvals in Q3 2021
BAC CEO Moynihan: seeing our consumers credit/debit card spending up 20% v 2019 YTD - CNBC
(US) May NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Median year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.0% from 3.4% prior month (seventh consecutive monthly increase and a new series high)
JPM CEO: JPMorgan is prepared for higher rates and more inflation; card spending running +20% v 2019 - MS conf comments
(UK) PM Johnson: confirms pushes back full reopening of UK by four weeks to July 19th; we are concerned about the Delta COVID variant

TUES 6/15
(EU) EU and US resolve Boeing/Airbus 17-year trade tariffs dispute (as speculated) - press
(EU) EU, US confirm to extend tariff suspension on aircrafts by 5 years
*(US) JUN EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 17.4 V 22.7E
*(US) MAY PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 6.6% V 6.2%E
*(US) MAY ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.3% V -0.8%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: -0.7% V 0.4%E
*(US) JUN NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 81 V 83E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -1.3% v -0.9% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q2 GDP forecast to 10.5% from 9.3%
(US) TREASURY $24B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.120%, BID-TO-COVER 2.40 v 2.42 PRIOR
ORCL Reports Q4 $1.54 v $1.31e, Rev $11.2B v $11.1Be
(US) FTC confirms big tech critic Lina Khan sworn in as the Chair of the agency

WED 6/16
*(CN) CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE ADMIN (SRB): WILL RELEASE RESERVES OF COPPER ALUMINIUM AND ZINC IN NEAR TERM
*(UK) MAY CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 1.8%E (first time above the BOE target level since July 2019)
*(US) MAY HOUSING STARTS: 1.572M V 1.630ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.68M V 1.730ME
NUE Reports prelim Q2 $4.60-4.70 v $4.49e; Believes that these strong market conditions will continue in Q3
GM Confirms to boost EV and AV Investments to $35 Billion through 2025 up from $27B prior investment; raises H1 adj EBIT $8.5-9.5B (prior to be significantly better then prior outlook)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -7.4M V -3ME; GASOLINE: +2.0M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -1.0M V 0ME
(US) House Antitrust Chair Cicilline (D-RI): Antitrust legislation would ban Apple from pre-installing apps
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); IOER RAISED TO 0.15% V 0.10%E; MOVES UP TIMETABLE FOR POTENTIAL HIKES TO 2023; FOMC PROJECTIONS SHOW TWO HIKES BY END OF 2023
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Possibility inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect; Bottleneck effects have been larger than anticipated - post rate decision press conference
WLTW US antitrust regulators file suit to block Aon's $30B deal for Willis Towers Watson - press
(US) SEC seeks further comment on VanEck's bitcoin ETF, postponing decision on whether to approve it - press
LEN Reports Q2 $2.95 v $2.34e, Rev $6.43B v $6.16Be
CVAC Provides update on Phase 2b/3 Trial of first-generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate, CVnCoV; Interim efficacy 47%, statistical success criteria not met at second interim analysis; study progressing to final analysis within the next few weeks

THURS 6/17
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; raises rate path outlook
(NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen: could raise rates twice in 2021 - post rate decision press conference
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAY FINAL CPI Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.0% V 0.9%E
F Raises Q2 adj EBIT 'significantly better' y/y and exceed expectations, citing improvement in automotive business since April is being driven by lower-than-anticipated costs and favorable market factors
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 412K V 360KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.52M V 3.43ME
*(US) JUN PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 30.7 V 31.0E
DELL DISH and Dell Technologies to partner to build the nation's first Open RAN 5G Edge infrastructure
ADBE Reports Q2 $3.03 v $2.81e, Rev $3.84B v $3.73Be

FRI 6/18
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Corporate financing likely to remain under stress; will take a while for pandemic to subside - post rate decision press conference
(RU) Moscow city reports 9,056 new COVID cases (highest since pandemic began)
(US) Fed’s Bullard (non-voter, hawk): acknowledges FOMC has been surprised to the upside over last 6 months; natural that Fed has tilted a little bit more hawkish here
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q2 forecast to 3.7% from 4.2%; cuts Q3 forecast to 4.4% from 5.3%

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Markets buy into transitory inflation hypothesis

2021-06-11T16:03:48.837

U.S. stocks edged higher through much of the week, putting the S&P 500 on track to notch a fresh record and its third consecutive week of gains. Equity markets largely held an underlying bid alongside continued volatility in the meme stocks and notable buying in global bond markets. US Treasury yields retreated to the lowest levels in nearly three months while TIPS breakeven spreads narrowed despite a May CPI print that marked the highest annual inflation rate in roughly 13-years at 5%. Inflation worries persisted for many, including those who will now have to pay more for Chipotle burritos and Shake Shack chicken sandwiches. For now, bond traders appear to be on the same page as most central bankers when it comes to their transitory view of the current inflation environment, and that was evident in the solid investor demand seen for another $75B in US coupon supply this week.

The ECB pushed back on inflation worries as new staff projections predicted EU inflation will likely to stay below the ECB target over the coming years. The ECB left rates, as well as, the duration, size, and cadence of PEPP purchases unchanged, but in her press conference ECB chief Lagarde acknowledged there were some who wanted to begin debate on tapering PEPP purchases. WTI crude broke above $70/bbl for the first time in over 2 years as DOE data showed the third week in a row of bigger than expected drawdowns in crude oil stockpiles. Bitcoin prices found a floor after falling towards $30K early in the week. The VIX volatility index plumbed to its lowest levels since before the pandemic amid dwindling equity volumes. For the week, the S&P gained 0.4%, the DJIA fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%.

In corporate news this week, Biogen received FDA approval for the first Alzheimer’s drug in 20 years, which some biotech analysts said could be the most lucrative product in pharmaceutical history. Investor sentiment cooled on Campbell Soup after the food giant cut its guidance slightly, noting it is being impacted by a rising inflationary environment. GameStop reported a beat on its top and bottom line in its Q1 results, and the Reddit favorite appointed two former Amazon executives as its new CEO and CFO.

Ford said it plans to enter the small truck market with its Ford Maverick, a new affordable 40-mpg hybrid model with pricing starting under $20,000. A Volkswagen executive predicted that this week will mark the lowest point of the supply crisis, though chip manufacturer Flex said it doesn't expect the underlying global chip shortage to ease until mid-2022. Lordstown Motors shares dropped after disclosing a ‘going concern’ that its current cash levels are not sufficient to begin commercial production of vehicles, though management did note it is in talks for potential new funding. Vulcan Materials announced it would acquire US Concrete, a supplier of aggregates and ready-mixed concrete, as the company expands its geographic footprint in some of the biggest US states. China ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing filed for its IPO to begin trading in the US in July, where it could be valued above $70B. Taiwan Semi is reportedly considering further expanding its capacity in the US by building a chip packaging plant in the states, which would be its first such facility outside of Taiwan.


MON 6/7
(SG) World’s 3rd largest chip manufacturer, Flex, doesn't expect global chip shortage to ease until mid-2022 - FT
VPCC Dave, a leading Banking app to merge with VPC Impact Acquisition Holding III in deal to become public, in deal valued at ~$4.0B
QTS To be acquired by Blackstone at $78.00/shr for a total transaction value of $10B
USCR To be acquired by Vulcan Materials for $74.00/shr in cash valued at $1.29B
MIC Confirms to sell Atlantic Aviation unit for $4.48B in cash and assumed debt and reorganization obligations
ONEM To acquire Iora Health in all-stock transaction, deal valued at ~$2.1B
*(US) APR CONSUMER CREDIT: $18.6B V $20BE

TUES 6/8
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: -1.3% V -1.8%E
THO Reports Q3 $3.29 v $2.36e, Rev $3.46B v $3.02Be; Sees no signs of demand slowing backlog up > 5x y/y
ASO Reports Q1 $1.84 v -$0.14 y/y, Rev $1.58B v $1.14B y/y; Raises guidance significantly
F Launches 2022 Ford Maverick hybrid pickup truck starting for less than $20K (update)
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 9.4% from 10.3% (though was updated to 9.3% on June 4th)
(US) US and EU are reportedly prepared to agree on a resolution to major trade disputes; will promise to end aircraft and metals disputes in 2021, according to draft summit conclusions - press
CMG Discloses raised prices 3.5-4.0% across the menu last week - press
(CN) US Senate passes $250B bill focused on technology and competing against China economically on a 68-32 vote
(CN) CHINA MAY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.6%E: NDRC comments to keep goods prices linked to livelihoods 'stable'

WEDS 6/9
UPS Targets FY23 Rev $98-102B, adj Op margin 12.7-13.7%; Announces strategic priorities
XPO Raises Q2, FY21 outlook; files form 10 registration statement for previously announced plan spin off of GXO Logistics
MAAC Datavant and Ciox Health Announce $7B Merger, Creating the Largest Neutral and Secure Health Data Ecosystem enabling secure exchange of health data
(EU) EU's Sefcovic: UK has to abide by its legal obligations on border control; Considering "all options" including cross retaliation that includes quotas and tariffs
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.2M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +7.0M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +4.4M V +1.5ME
(US) Sec Chair Gensler: SEC to undertake broad review of stock market structure, considering changes to exchange and broker pricing rules - press
*(US) TREASURY'S $38B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.497%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.58 V 2.36 PRIOR AND 2.40 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS (highest BTC since last July)
VOW3.DE Exec: believe we have reached the lowest point of the supply crisis - press interview
(TW) US and Taiwan reportedly to hold high-level trade talks as soon as Thursday, Jun 10th - press
(CN) China PBOC Gov Yi Gang: Sees CPI in 2021 <2.0%; China Potential Economic growth has decreased to a certain extent - Comments at Lujizui Forum

THURS 6/10
ASH Affirms FY21 Adj EBITDA guidance; Warns of Q3 supply-chain financial impacts
(EU) EU Commission President Von Der Leyen: Sees fundamental gaps in execution of Northern Ireland Protocol; Need to know source and origin of Covid-19 pandemic
SLB Announce strategic collaboration with Panasonic Energy of NAon new battery-grade lithium production process; Aims to reduce mining effort from ~year to "weeks"
*(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
(EU) ECB maintains Pandemic Bond Buying Program (PEPP) size at €1.85T with program running until at least March 2022 or until crisis ends
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 376K V 370KE (fresh pandemic low); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.50M V 3.67ME (lowest level for initial claims since March 2020)
*(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.172%; BID TO COVER 2.29 V 2.57 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
*(US) MAY MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$132B V -$250.0BE
DIDI Reportedly Xiaoju Kuaizhi files for $100M IPO ADS to list on NASDAQ under ticker DIDI - press

FRI 6/11
IEA Monthly Oil Report: Sees demand back at pre-pandemic levels by end 2022
(US) JUN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 86.4 V 84.4E; 1-year inflation expectations: 4.0% v 4.7%e
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q2 forecast to 4.2% from 4.4%; cuts Q3 forecast to 5.3% from 5.4%

Speculative ‘meme’ frenzy draws focus away from infrastructure talks, solid data, and upbeat guidance from automakers

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Weekly Market Update: Speculative ‘meme’ frenzy draws focus away from infrastructure talks, solid data, and upbeat guidance from automakers

2021-06-04T16:03:29.743

Much of the focus this week was unavoidably on a renaissance of the meme stocks. Wild volatility in AMC shares and historic options volumes sparked a revival of the Reddit trade. It didn’t go unnoticed that the speculative pocket jumped as Bitcoin prices continued to retreat along with most other cryptos. The environment may have been ripe for a resurgence in highly speculative trade as markets appeared to be in a bit of holding pattern as earnings season ends. Most market participants saw their focus shift towards Friday’s May jobs report as well key central bank meetings later this month for more clarity.

The Biden Administration and the Republicans continued to offer proposals aimed at reaching a deal on infrastructure, but despite what appeared to be a significant concession on corporate tax rates from the President, rhetoric suggested a deal is not likely in the offing. Friday’s US Labor Department data showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than economists had expected, while the unemployment rate fell more than expected. Wage data did suggest employers are being forced to pay more to find workers. Regardless, the mixed data suggested the Federal Reserve can continue to be patient before paring back its extraordinary support for the economy, and that notion was underscored by the Fed’s Mester in an interview after the data release. Equity markets bounced on the jobs data while Treasury yields the US dollar gave back some of their gains seen earlier in the week. Most commodity prices moved higher led by a rebound in gold prices. WTI crude prices finished the week at levels not seen since the very early days of 2020. For the week, the S&P gained 0.6%, the DJIA added 0.7%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.5%.

In corporate news this week, GM raised its H1 outlook to be ‘significantly better’ than its prior guidance, pointing to its prioritization of semiconductor usage amid shortages, and the car maker remains ‘optimistic’ about full year prospects. Engine No. 1 was expected to win a third board seat at Exxon, after winning two seats decisively last week, as the activist investor pushes management to focus on climate change issues. Brazilian meat producer JBS Foods disclosed a cyberattack on its systems in Australia and Canada, forcing it to shut down several meat production facilities, even in the US, as officials sought to contain the fallout.

Amazon confirmed plans to hold its Prime Day event on June 21-22nd in the US and globally, moving its annual sale back to the midyear timeframe it has held since 2015. Cloudera agreed to a $16 per share go-private deal with PE firms KKR and Clayton Dubilier & Rice, an offer that is only slightly above its 2017 IPO price. Etsy said it planned to acquire global fashion resale marketplace Depop for $1.63B as the online seller tries to move into the vintage 2000s streetwear market. Facebook maintained its suspension of former President Trump’s account on all its platforms for two years, and said he would only be reinstated ‘if conditions permit.’


SUN 5/30
*(CN) CHINA MAY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.0 V 51.1E (14th month of expansion)

MON 5/31
(US) US regulators reportedly signal bigger role in cryptocurrencies market - FT
(IL) Israel Opposition parties said to have reached a deal that would remove PM Netanyahu from office - Wapo
(CN) China Politburo to hold a major meeting on optimizing nationalist policies and how to deal with an aging population; will allow three children per couple - Xinhua
(CN) China Education Ministry reportedly mulling to create a new division to oversee all private education platforms and online education firms - press
*(DE) GERMANY MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.3%E (highest annual pace since 2011)
ATL.IT Atlantia investors said to have approve Autostrade sale to Italy state lender CDP - press
JBSS3.BR Disclosed cyber attack on systems in Australia and Canada - press

TUES 6/1
(CN) China Vice Premier Liu He held talks with US Treasury Sec Yellen, both expressed willingness to maintain communications and that economic ties are important - Xinhua
*(US) MAY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 34.9 V 36.3E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.9% v -0.2% prior
*(US) MAY ISM MANUFACTURING: 61.2 V 60.9E; PRICES PAID: 88.0 V 89.0E
*(US) MAY FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.1 V 61.5E (11th consecutive month of expansion)
CLDR Confirms entered into going-private deal with PE firms KKR and CD&R for $16.00/shr in $5.3B cash deal - filing
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.0% V 8.1%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAY ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E (above ECB target for 1st time since Nov 2018)
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 63.1 V 62.8E (confirms 11th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY MAY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -15.0K V -9.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.0% V 6.0%E
(HK) Macau May Casino Rev (MOP): 10.4B v 8.4B prior; Y/Y: 492.2% v 467%e

WEDS 6/2
(US) US Trade Rep Tai: USTR suspending new retaliatory tariffs [related to digital taxes] for up to 180 days, provides time for OECD G20 talks
NTAP Reports Q4 $1.17 v $1.12e, Rev $1.56B v $1.50Be; Raises dividend 4%
(IL) Israel opposition leader Yair Lapid notifies the President that he has formed a coalition with Naftali Bennett for a govt; move would oust PM Netanyahu after 12 years in power - press
(US) Federal Reserve Board announces plans to begin winding down the portfolio of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min): US proposals on global tax reform appear to meet UK's objectives

THURS 6/3
(TR) Turkey May CPI M/M: 0.9% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 16.6% v 17.3%e (1st decline in annual pace in 8 months)
*(FR) FRANCE MAY FINAL PMI SERVICES: 56.6 V 56.6E (confirms 2nd straight expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY MAY FINAL PMI SERVICES: 52.8 V 52.8E (confirms move back into expansion and highest reading since July 2020)
*(UK) MAY FINAL PMI SERVICES: 62.9 V 61.8E (confirms 3rd month of expansion and highest reading since May 1997)
DAL Raises Q2 pretax -$1.2B to -$1.0B (prior -$1.5 to -1.0B), Rev $6.0-6.2B v $6.35Be (prior -55% to -50%); Expects H2 2021 pretax profit - filing
*(US) MAY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +978K V +650KE
*(US) Q1 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 5.4% V 5.5%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: +1.7% V -0.4%E
GM Raises H1 results significantly better than prior guidance, citing prioritization of chip usage
*(US) MAY ISM SERVICES INDEX: 64.0 V 63.0E (all time high)
(US) Reportedly President Biden offering 15% tax floor instead of a corporate tax rate hike to 28% in effort get Republicans to support his infrastructure plan - Washington Post
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.1M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +1.5M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +3.7M V -1ME
(US) Biden administration unveils strategy for global vaccine sharing; allocates first 25M doses to be shared globally (out of 80M promised by end of June)
AVGO Reports Q2 $6.62 v $6.44e, Rev $6.61B v $6.51Be
COST Reports May total SSS +14.7% (ex-gas)
FB Reportedly plans to end special treatment for politicians after Trump ban; would reverse position that all speech from elected officials is inherently newsworthy - The Verge
2449.TW Said to be testing all workers following discovery of cluster of virus infections - Taiwan press

FRI 6/4
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR RETAIL SALES M/M: -3.1% V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 23.9% V 25.0%E
*(US) MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +559K V +674KE
(US) US FBI Director Wray: Russian actors are chiefly responsible for ransomware attacks in US - financial press
*(US) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
*(US) MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.5% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.6%E
2449.TW To suspend domestic production for two days after COVID breakout
(EU) EURO ZONE APR RETAIL SALES M/M: -3.1% V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 23.9% V 25.0%E
(US) US FBI Director Wray: Russian actors are chiefly responsible for ransomware attacks in US - financial press
(US) MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +559K V +674KE
(US) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
(US) MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.5% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.6%E
FB To maintain former Pres Trump suspension for two years and he will only be reinstated 'if conditions permit'

Reopening Economy Gathers Momentum But Yet to Sway Central Bankers

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Weekly Market Update: Reopening Economy Gathers Momentum But Yet to Sway Central Bankers

2021-05-28T16:03:33.517

- US stock markets climbed back to within striking distance of all-time highs in some cases, as May drew to a close. Growth and highly speculative groups outperformed that of the traditional value sectors. The mime/reddit stocks, in particular, recaptured investors’ imagination led by AMC which saw another round of dizzying gains sparking further debate over excessive risk taking within financial markets. Positive late-season retail earnings reports, and corporate commentary indicated consumer strength has returned to 2019 levels, and even accelerated into the current quarter. New home sales figures seemed to suggest that the surge is US home prices has caused some buyers to walk away from newly built homes. On Friday President Biden released the details of a $6T budget that is sure to get push back from Republicans as the infrastructure debate looked to drag into June.
- Inflation remained the overarching topic foremost in most investors’ minds. The narrative didn’t really change much though, despite the fact the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, saw the April y/y number reach its highest level since the early 90’s. Ahead of Friday’s PCE print a chorus central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic continued to stress what they believed was the transitory nature of the current price increases would allow them to remain decidedly patient in withdrawing support, while also hinting the time to start talking about tapering asset purchases could be coming at upcoming meetings. To that end the Kansas City Fed confirmed this year’s Jackson Hole meeting in August would be in person. Bitcoin continued to back away from all-time highs while WTI crude prices rallied into next week’s OPEC+ meeting. Treasury yields broadly moved lower spurred by central bankers’ comments. The Chinese Yuan broke out to its strongest level against the US Dollar in roughly 3-years. For the week the S&P rose 1.2%, Dow gained ~1% and the NASDAQ jumped 2%.
- In corporate news this week, Salesforce reported better-than-expected growth momentum in its Q1 and raised guidance, as the company nears completion of its Slack acquisition. Toll Brothers posted record earnings and said they continued to raise prices in excess of cost increases amid a rise in first-time buyers. Costco shares slipped as investors didn’t find its Q3 beat on top and bottom line to be good enough. Ulta Beauty shares lifted after the cosmetics chain reported better-than-expected profit and raised its full year guidance. Amazon confirmed an agreement to acquire MGM Studios for $8.5B as it aims to bolster its Prime library. A Dutch court ruled that Royal Dutch Shell has a legal responsibility to cut greenhouse gases by 45% by 2030. Two candidates from activist hedge fund Engine No 1 were elected to the Exxon board, along with potentially a third, after calling for changes to the oil and gas company’s climate change plans. Royal Caribbean received its first CDC approval to begin test cruises with volunteer passengers in June on one ship departing from South Florida.

Crypto-chaos churns broader markets

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Weekly Market Update: Crypto-chaos churns broader markets

2021-05-21T16:04:34.613

US equity volatility remained elevated coming into this week and it extended across a variety of assets classes. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a significant drop on increasing concerns around potential government intervention. Key commodity prices continued to back away from recent highs supporting those who are arguing the rise in inflation this summer will ultimately prove to be transitory, as many central bankers have forecasted. The outlook for interest rates was further muddied when the latest FOMC minutes that confirmed that some officials want to start discussions about paring asset purchases at some point in the not too distant future. Treasury yields remained subdued though as the taper talk juxtaposed several negative surprises in economic readings. April US housing starts were weaker than expected and the May Philly Fed Index missed forecasts by a wide margin. Citigroup's U.S. economic surprise index, which measures whether such data beats or misses expectations, was on the verge of turning negative for the first time in almost a year. For the week, the S&P fell 0.4%, the DJIA lost 0.5%, while the Nasdaq added 0.3%.

In corporate news this week, big box retailers Walmart, Target, and Home Depot blew out their Q1 earnings expectations, though HD is still not providing forward guidance amid the pandemic. Macy’s also beat expectations, turning in a surprise profit and raising fiscal year guidance. As reopenings continue across the US, United Airlines noted it plans to operate at 80% of its pre-pandemic domestic schedule starting in July, noting summer bookings up 214% y/y. In M&A news this week, Kansas City Southern terminated a deal with Canadian Pacific in favor of a richer but perhaps riskier merger with Canadian National Railway. Elsewhere, AT&T stunned some shareholders, agreeing to merge its WarnerMedia assets with Discovery, reversing the telecom giant’s asset strategy of the last several years.


MON 5/17
SAN.FR Sanofi and GSK COVID-19 Adjuvanted recombinant COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrates strong immune responses across all adult age groups in Phase 2 trial; Sees approval in Q4 2021
(EU) EU and US said to agree to chart path to end WTO steel disputes by end of 2021 - press
UAL To operate 80% of pre-pandemic U.S. schedule from July 2021; Summer bookings +214% y/y; United to add 400 flights to July's schedule compared to June
*(US) MAY EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 24.3 V 24.0E; Says indexes for future prices paid and future prices received remained elevated
T Confirms to merge Media units with Discovery in all-stock Reverse Morris Trust deal; AT&T to receive $43B in a combination of cash, debt securities, and WarnerMedia’s retention of certain debt
ML.FR Plans to implement 6% price hikes across passenger brands and 13% hikes across commercial tires in NA effective July 1st

TUES 5/18
VOD.UK Reports FY21 adj €0.08 v €0.08e, adj EBITDA €14.4B v €14.5Be, Rev €43.8B v €44.9B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.6% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: -1.8% V -1.8%E
BIDU Reports Q1 $1.89 v $1.44e, Rev $4.29B v $4.16Be
HD Reports Q1 $3.86 v $2.98e, Rev $37.5B v $34.5Be
M Reports Q1 $0.39 v -$0.43e, Rev $4.71B v $4.40Be; Raises guidance
WMT Reports Q1 $1.69 v $1.21e, Rev $138.3B v $131.3Be; Raises guidance, Optimism is higher than it was at start of the year
(CN) China govt bans financial firms from providing cryptocurrency services and warns Chinese investors to stay away from cryptocurrency trading - press
*(US) APR HOUSING STARTS: 1.569M V 1.702ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.760M V 1.770ME
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 10.1% from 10.5%
(US) Colonial shippers said to indicate pipeline communications system is down - press
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.2% v -0.7% prior
BAC Raising minimum wage to $25/hr to attract talent (from $20/hr) by 2025
(US) White House climate adviser McCarthy: existing nuclear power is going to be absolutely essential in our effort to reach emissions goals
(US) Reportedly Biden administration to delay by two weeks revealing any changes to the Trump-era China investment black list - press
(CN) European Parliament expected to pass motion on Thursday (May 20th) that will formally freeze progress on EU-China investment deal ratification (as expected) - press

WEDS 5/19
(US) Biden administration said to to waive sanctions on German company in charge of Nord Stream 2 pipeline - Axios
*(UK) APR CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.5%E
BA.UK Issues Q2 Trading update: good operational performance
(EU) ECB FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW: Risks are more unevenly distributed amid market exuberance; Potential for banking sector credit risk to worsen
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR FINAL CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E
(EU) EU said to agree reopening borders to fully vaccinated travelers - press
TGT Reports Q1 $3.69 v $2.20e, Rev $24.2B v $21.9Be
LUV Guides May Rev -40% to -35% v May'19, Raises load factor ~85% (prior 75-80%), adjusts ASMs -18% v May'19 - filing
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +1.3M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -2.0M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.3M V -0.5ME
AA CEO: seeing extreme tightness in aluminum and value added metal; aluminum demand is firing on all engines this year
*(US) FOMC APR MINUTES: GENERALLY NOTED ECONOMY REMAINED FAR FROM MAXIMUM-EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE-STABILITY GOALS; A NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS NOTED IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE AT SOME POINT IN UPCOMING MEETINGS TO BEGIN DISCUSSING PLAN TO ADJUST PACE OF ASSET PURCHASES

THURS 5/20
700.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net 47.8B v 34.4Be, Op 56.3B v 37.3B y/y, Rev 135.3B v 108.1B y/y
BNTX EU confirms signing 3rd contract for extra 1.8B vaccine doses with BioNTech/Pfizer
*(US) MAY PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 31.5 V 41.5E
KSU Reportedly expected to terminate the Canadian Pacific deal and reach deal with Canadian National Railway – press
(CN) CASS (govt think tank) Researcher said China could consider selecting Shenzhen and Hainan as the places to conduct trials related to property tax reform - China Sec Journal

FRI 5/21
2330.TW Exec: Raised FY21 automotive semiconductors output by 60% y/y amid chip shortage
(FR) FRANCE MAY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.2 V 58.5E (6th month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE MAY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.8 V 62.5E (11th month of expansion)
(UK) MAY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 66.1 V 60.8E (12th straight expansion and record high)
DE Reports Q2 $5.68 v $4.44e, Rev (equipment ops) $11.0B v $10.4Be
(US) MAY PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 61.5 V 60.2E (series all time high); Services PMI: 70.1 v 64.4e (series all time high)
(MX) Mexico Pres Lopez Obrador (AMLO): Will not be nominating Banxico Gov Diaz De Leon for a 2nd term
(CN) China Vice Premier Liu: China to crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading
(US) White House: Biden offered $1.7T counterproposal on infrastructure down from $2.25T originally; full details to be released later today - press Sec Psaki

Inflation jitters continue to drive markets

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Inflation jitters continue to drive markets

Fri, 14 May 04:13 PM EST/09:13 PM GMT

This week’s trade commenced amid angst over the historic cyber-attack that forced the closure of the Colonial Pipeline. Reports of fuel shortages at key hubs in the Southeast added to already growing concerns around rising commodity prices. Tuesday’s surge in April CPI figures only fanned those fears and resulted in a significant sell off led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ, while US Treasury yields jumped to new cycle highs. Fears started to abate by Wednesday though, when word came from the White House the Colonial Pipeline would commence a restart sequence and would likely be up and running by this weekend. Also a slew of Fed officials underscored the central bank has no intention to withdrawing support measures at this time because they need to see several more months of data on jobs and inflation before determining when to begin even thinking about tightening monetary policy. Nevertheless, Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment reading saw its survey based inflation expectations jump to a decade high, matching the rise seen in market based TIPS breakevens earlier in the week.

Key commodities like lumber, copper and iron ore rolled over by the back half of week providing fertile ground for stocks to rebound. April PPI and retail sales figures failed to stoke the same overheating concerns as the CPI and bond markets lifted along with stocks. The VIX, after surging towards 30, slid back below 20 where it had entered the week. Bitcoin and other cryptos experienced another modest drawdown after Elon Musk’s comedic turn on SNL and news Tesla would no longer accept bitcoin for purchase of its cars. WTI crude futures drifted modestly lower amid the rekindling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For the week, the S&P lost 1.4%, the DJIA slipped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was off 2.3%.

In corporate news this week, Disney reported a miss on revenue and saw its Disney+ streaming service attract fewer users than the street had anticipated. DoorDash shares gained after it said its revenue tripled even as coronavirus cases begin to wane. Some of the ‘Reddit’ names had a strong week, as AMC gained traction, and Hertz shares doubled as it prepares to emerge from bankruptcy. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase reported its revenue tripled on a sequential basis, and the company said it would be including Dogecoin on its platform in the coming months. Sonos shares lifted after it posted a surprise earnings beat, raising its full year guidance and affirming long-term targets. McDonald’s announced plans to raise US wages by 10% on average and set a goal to reach an average level of $15/hour by 2024. Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said he has taken a 6% stake in Domino’s, replacing his former stake in Starbucks.

SUN 5/9
(US) Colonial Pipeline: No time line for restart after cyber attack, main lines remains closed, smaller lateral times are operational; will bring system back online when safe
(US) White House has set up a task force to investigate Colonial Pipeline Security Breach, notes preliminary findings link group to Russia

MON 5/10
(US) Colonial pipeline spokesperson: aims to 'substantially' restore service by end of the week; segments of the pipeline are being brought back online in a stepwise fashion
(US) April NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: median year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.4% from 3.2% in March
MSFT US Pentagon reportedly mulls ending JEDI cloud project valued up to $10B amid Amazon court fight - US financial press

TUES 5/11
2317.TW Foxconn iPhone production at India factory is down >50%; cites rise in COVID cases among co's Indian workforce; Co. has implemented a no-entry ban at its Tamil Nadu plant until late May - financial press
(US) Investor Stan Druckenmiller: Fed policy totally inappropriate and endangering USD status - CNBC comments following WSJ oped
(US) White House Press Sec Psaki: up to the states to continue with jobless benefits
BTC/USD SEC issues warning: Volatility and lack of regulation in bitcoin are risks, it is a highly speculative investment - press

WEDS 5/12
7203.JP Reports FY20/21 Net ¥2.25T v ¥2.04T y/y; Op ¥2.20T v ¥2.40T y/y; Rev ¥27.2T v ¥29.9T y/y; Announces ¥250B share buyback (up to 1.5% of shares outstanding) and 5 for 1 share split
1810.HK To be removed from US blacklist in Lawsuit settlement (as speculated)
*(UK) Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.5% V -1.6%E; Y/Y: -6.1% V -6.1%E
DGE.UK Trading Update:Recommencing return of capital program of up to £4.5B to shareholders (update)
(US) Fed Vice Chair Clarida: likely to see only transitory effect on underlying inflation; expects inflation to return or perhaps run somewhat above 2% in 2022 and 2023
(US) Fed’s Rosengren (non-voter): FedNow instant payment system to begin in 2023; Fed is considering both technical and policy issues surrounding a central bank digital currency
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -0.4M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +0.4M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V -1ME
*(US) APR MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$225.6B V -$208BE
SONO Reports Q2 $0.31 v -$0.22e, Rev $333M v $251Me; Raises FY21, Affirms LT targets
*(US) PRES BIDEN: THINKS WE WILL HAVE GOOD NEWS IN 24 HOURS RELATED TO COLONIAL PIPELINE
*(US) ENERGY SEC GRANHOLM: COLONIAL TO RESTART PIPELINE TODAY AT 17:00ET
TSLA CEO Musk: Suspending purchases using bitcoin, concerned about Bitcoin's environmental impact

THURS 5/13
005930.KR Plans to invest $151B in logic chips and foundry sectors by 2030 (prior $118B) - press
MCD Raises US wages by 10% in average to >$13/shr; To hire 10,000 new employees over next 3 months - press
*(US) APR PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 6.2% V 5.8%E
005380.KR To invest $7.4B in the US by 2025; US facility to begin EV production in 2022
(US) Colonial Pipeline reportedly did pay hackers nearly $5M in ransom - press
*(US) TREASURY $27B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 2.395%; BID TO COVER 2.22 V 2.18 PRIOR AND 2.23 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
COIN Reports Q1 $3.05 v $3.88e, Rev $1.80B v $1.81Be
DIS Reports Q2 $0.79 v $0.31e, Rev $15.6B v $16.0Be
(US) Fed’s Bullard (non-voter, dove): Will be a judgment call by the Fed to discern transitory inflation from more persistent inflation pressures; Job market may be much tighter than data suggest
2002.TW Price hike planned for June will be lower than expected - Press

FRI 5/14
(IE) Ireland govt official: health service cyber attack may last for days
*(US) APR ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 1.0%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: -0.8% V +0.6%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 10.5% from 11.0%
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q2 forecast to 4.9% from 5.1%

Hawkish speculation around Fed policy offset by surprisingly weak jobs report, as earnings season hits its peak

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Hawkish speculation around Fed policy offset by surprisingly weak jobs report, as earnings season hits its peak

2021-05-07T16:16:12.727

Major stock indices continued to perform well this week with headline performance in the in Dow and S&P masking pockets of weakness in the smaller caps. Q1 earnings season headed down the back nine with corporate reports and conference calls remaining fraught with management handwringing about rising cost inflation. Nevertheless Fed officials were once again out en masse emphasizing the risk of an outbreak of runaway inflation remains remote despite warning signs of potential asset bubbles. Treasury Secretary Yellen was even forced to walk back clumsy comments regarding Fed policy on interest rates from a virtual summit on Tuesday which weakened the NASDAQ that morning. Copper prices rose to the highest levels in decade, lumber prices continued to surge, and dogecoin, crypto’s “meme coin” rocketed up another 100% ahead of Elon Musk’s appearance on SNL.

Friday’s April payrolls data came in well short of estimates, surprising nearly everyone on Wall Street, who after the fact attributed the miss to seasonal adjustments. Rates initially dropped with the US dollar while stock futures and most commodities rose on the belief the data further postpones the Fed’s desire to begin '“talking about talking about” tapering asset purchases. A jump in the labor force participation rate and a notable decline in the underemployment rate did suggest slack is coming out of the labor market as the pandemic subsides, but the data ratcheted up an ongoing labor-shortage debate. To that end, following the report, the US Chamber of Commerce called for an end to the $300-per-week supplemental federal unemployment benefit to help address the labor shortage, echoing what we have heard from a few red state governors already. President Biden addressed the report from the White House pushing back on that narrative, saying the report showed quite the opposite, by indicating more help is still sorely needed and that the government’s enhanced jobless benefits have not measurably restrained workers from returning to work. For the week, the S&P gained 1.2%, the DJIA was up 2.7%, but the Nasdaq lost 1.5% amid sector rotation.

In corporate news this week, amid a slew of corporate earnings, some travel companies released quarterly color as vaccination numbers accumulate in the US. Expedia shares rose as management sounded hopeful as the travel sector marches towards full reopening. Hilton noted its April bookings are exceeding the peak 2019 levels by almost 10%. TripAdvisor predicted its Q2 revenue would improve sequentially, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of 2019, despite Europe’s lagging recovery. Lyft said it would increase driver incentives in coming months to address supply and demand imbalances, while investors worried that rising Uber driver recruitment costs could dent profitability. PayPal shares lifted after posting big beats and reporting a record amount of volume flow as e-commerce continues its surge. Etsy fell after reporting mixed earnings and an underwhelming outlook for EBITDA and gross merchandise sales. Roku reported its highest growth in sales since it IPO’d in 2017.

Verizon divested its media unit, which includes Yahoo and AOL, to Apollo Funds for $5B, after purchasing the same assets for $9B less than four years ago. Home decor retailer At Home Group agreed to a go-private deal with PE firm Hellman & Friedman for $36/share, though the agreement includes a 40-day go-shop period. Facebook’s independent Oversight Board affirmed the suspension of former President Trump's account for the time being but called on management to review the proportionality of the ban within six months. Peloton announced a recall of 125K Tread+ treadmill units at a cost of $165M after 70 reported injuries and the death of a child.


SUN 5/2
(HK) Macau Apr Casino Rev (MOP): 8.4B v 8.3B prior; Y/Y: 1,014% v 1,054%e
Investor Warren Buffett: Seeing signs of inflation and spiking demand across its businesses - Annual report

MON 5/3
(TR) Turkey Apr CPI M/M: 1.7% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 17.1% v 17.3%e (7th straight month of rising inflation)
*(DE) GERMANY APR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 66.2 V 66.4E (confirms 10th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.9 V 63.3E (confirms 10th month of expansion and record high)
(EU) EU proposes to ease restrictions on non-essential travel to the region - statement
*(US) APR MARKIT FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.5 V 60.7E (10th consecutive month of expansion)
*(US) APR ISM MANUFACTURING: 60.7 V 65.0E; PRICES PAID: 89.6 V 86.1E
(US) NY Gov Cuomo: announces 'major reopening' of NY state on May 19th; most capacity restrictions will end across the tri-state region May 19th - press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q2 GDP forecast to 13.2% from 10.4%
MSFT Bill and Melinda Gates to file for divorce, will continue to work together at their foundation

TUES 5/4
880.HK Reports Q1 (HKD) Net -647M v 409M y/y, , Rev 2.48B v 2.60Be
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.7% v -0.1% prior
(US) Treasury Sec Yellen: rates may have to Rise to stop economy overheating - Atlantic's virtual summit
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q2 GDP forecast to 13.6% from 13.2%
(CN) EU said to suspend efforts to ratify China-EU investment deal - AFP

WEDS 5/5
DPW.DE Reports Q1 Net €1.19B v €0.3B y/y, EBIT €1.9B v €1.87Be, Rev €18.9B v €15.5B y/y
MAERSKB.DK CEO: No signs of rising inflation in global economy; expects delays at Suez canal to be over during Q2 - post earnings comments
*(FR) FRANCE APR FINAL SERVICES PMI: 50.3 V 50.4E (confirms 1st expansion in 8 months)
*(DE) GERMANY APR FINAL SERVICES PMI: 49.9 V 50.1E (moves back into contraction)
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR FINAL SERVICES PMI: 50.5 V 50.3E (confirms 1st expansion in 8 months)
GM Reports Q1 $2.25 v $1.02e, Rev $32.5B v $33.3Be; Says chips shortage will Not impact growth and EV initiatives
*(US) APR ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +742K V +850KE (strongest reading since Sept 2020)
FB Affirms suspension of former Pres Trump's Facebook account for time being; FB-appointed oversight board finds Facebook failed to impose proper penalty and it was 'not appropriate to impose the indeterminate and standardless penalty of 'indefinite suspension'; calls for Facebook to review proportionality of the ban within 6 months
(DE) German Chancellor Merkel: sensible for EU to develop a trade agreement with the US; US remains Europe's most important ally
*(US) APR ISM SERVICES INDEX: 62.7 V 64.1E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -8M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +0.7M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.9M V -1ME
US Trade Rep Tai: US supports a waiver of vaccine patent protections at the WTO
COST Reports Apr total SSS +24.2% (ex-gas)
*(CN) CHINA NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION (NDRC) 'INDEFINITELY' HALTS ACTIVITIES UNDER CHINA AUSTRALIA ECONOMIC DIALOGUE

THURS 5/6
(FR) Royal Navy ships said to be ordered to Jersey as French fishermen prepare blockade - financial press
MT.NL Reports Q1 Net $2.29B v $1.21B y/y, EBITDA $3.24B v $1.73B y/y, Rev $16.2B v $14.2B y/y
VOW3.DE Reports Q1 Net €3.4B v €0.5B y/y, Op €4.8B v €0.9B y/y, Rev €62.4B v €55.1B y/y; chip shortage likely to have somewhat more pronounced effects in Q2 than before
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(UK) APR FINAL SERVICES PMI: 60.0 V 60.1E (confirms 2nd month of expansion and highest since Oct 2013 )
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR RETAIL SALES M/M: 2.7% V 1.6%E; Y/Y: 12.0% V 9.4%E
TSLA Reportedly seeing exceptionally strong demand for its vehicles; Said to be already sold out for Q2 with 2 months left - Electrek
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
(CN) Reportedly top trade negotiators from China and US Biden administration may hold their first conversation soon to review the phase one trade deal - SCMP
*(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 5.4% V 4.3%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: -0.3% V -1.0%E
SQ Reports Q1 $0.17* adj v $0.16e, Rev $5.06B v $3.37Be

FRI 5/7
SIE.DE Reports Q2 Net €2.39B v €2.0Be, Industrial Business EBITA €2.1B v €1.59B y/y, Rev €14.7B v €14.1Be
Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb pontificates CDC should consider now to remove indoor mask mandate - CNBC
*(US) APR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.7% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.3% V -0.4%E
*(US) APR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +266K V +933KE (below lower-end of analyst expectations)
*(US) APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.1% V 5.8%E
(US) USD dollar weaker after April Payroll data comes in below All analyst expectations
*(CA) CANADA APR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: -207.1K V -150.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 8.0%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 11.0% from 13.6%
(US) Treasury Sec Yellen: We believe we will reach full economic employment next year; Apr jobs report underscores the long climb back for the US economy - WH briefing
(US) MAR CONSUMER CREDIT: $25.8B V $20.0BE

Markets digest flood of earnings reports, improving data, and mixed reopening news

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets digest flood of earnings reports, improving data, and mixed reopening news

2021-04-30T16:14:36.777

The week was characterized by more solid data, particularly from the US economy, where Consumer Confidence hit a 14-month high and personal income and spending numbers rose even more sharply than expected. The advance reading on US Q1 GDP was a few tenths below expectations but the 6.4% reading was still miles ahead of the Euro Zone’s Q1 contraction reported on Friday. Despite this and generally positive earnings results from many large-cap tech and consumer firms, equity markets struggled this week.

‘Reopening’ efforts continue in many regions though a surge of new Covid cases in India has raised concerns about a new virus variant spreading across Southeast Asia. As a result, several nations announced temporary bans on travelers from India. The FOMC’s latest policy statement downgraded the level of risk seen from the pandemic, and while Chairman Powell reiterated they will not be tapering QE any time soon, at least one hawk (Kaplan) said the committee should start discussing a plan for 2022. The US dollar slid the most in 9 months in April as the rest of the world's outlook brightened, though the dollar index perked up headed into the last day of the month. Meanwhile bitcoin steadied itself after last week’s slump. Commodity prices continued to climb, highlighted by a new all-time high in copper, and many corporations confirmed corresponding price raises during their earnings calls. For the week, the S&P edged up less than 0.1%, while the DJIA slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq ended down 0.4%.

This week in corporate news, a slew of earnings came down the pike, especially from the world of Big Tech. Microsoft topped estimates amid robust demand for its cloud computing products and an impressive rise in personal computer shipments. Tesla shares fell after reporting a beat on record profit largely powered by bitcoin trading and regulatory credits. Google’s Q1 saw robust ad sales and the search giant announced a $50B share buyback. Facebook’s strong ad sales helped boost its Q1 revenue by nearly 50%. Amazon stock rose after a blowout Q1 report, announcing it more than tripled its profit. Apple handily beat consensus across all of its product categories in Q2, and the tech giant raised its dividend and boost buybacks, as well. Starbucks’ Q2 sales underwhelmed investors as lockdowns abroad keep a lid on growth.

Thoma Bravo said it would snap up security software developer Proofpoint in a $12.3B deal in what would be the largest cloud acquisition by any PE firm yet. Realty Income announced it would merge with Vereit in all-stock deal with combined enterprise value of ~$50B and then spin off its office properties into a REIT. Verizon is said to be exploring the sale of its media assets, including Yahoo and AOL, in a package that could be valued at $4-5B, half of what they paid for the pair of companies.


SUN 4/25
(CN) PBOC Dep Gov Fan Yifei: PBOC will continue to crack down on cross-border gambling, said dealing with cross-border gambling is a long-term task - US financial press
MON 4/26
*(DE) GERMANY APR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 96.8 V 97.8E
AAPL Raises US investment target to $430B over five years (prior goal $350B set in 2018); To add 20K new jobs, $1B on new NC campus
PFPT To be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $176.00/shr in cash valued at $12.3B
*(US) APR DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 37.3 V 30.0E
(US) Census Bureau: Texas to gain two seats in House of Representatives; NY and California to lose one seat each
TSLA Reports Q1 $0.93 v $0.79e, Rev $10.4B v $9.92Be; Affirms it expects to achieve 50% annual growth in deliveries
MAERSKB.DK Reports prelim Q1 Rev $12.4B, EBITDA $4B, EBIT $3.1B; raises FY guidance significantly

TUES 4/27
5.HK Reports Q1 Net $3.9B v $1.8B y/y, adj Pretax $6.4B v $3.0B y/y, Rev $13.3B v $13.7B y/y
UBSG.CH Reports Q1 Net $1.82B v $1.60B y/y, Adj Pretax $2.29B v $2.00B y/y, Rev $8.7B v $7.9B y/y
BP.UK Reports Q1 $0.78 v $0.43e, Rev $36.5B v $31.4Be; to buy back $500M in shares
UPS Reports Q1 $2.77 adj v $1.63e, Rev $22.9B v $20.4Be; No plans to buyback shares
GE Reports Q1 $0.03 v $0.02e, Rev $17.1B v $17.6Be
MMM Reports Q1 $2.77 adj v $2.25e, Rev $8.85B v $8.36Be
ADM Reports Q1 $1.39 v $1.00e, Rev $18.9B v $16.8Be
FISV Reports Q1 $1.17 v $1.13e, Rev $3.56B v $3.56Be
GLW Reports Q1 $0.45 v $0.42e, Rev $3.29B v $3.13Be; All segments grew double digits y/y, margin almost doubles
PCAR Reports Q1 $1.35 v $1.27e, Rev $5.41B v $5.20Be
PHM Raises FY21 deliveries to +30% (prior +20% y/y) - earnings call
(US) Nevada reports Mar casino gaming Rev $1.07B, +73% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $501.5M, +67.2% y/y (highest casino reading since Feb 2013)
*(US) APR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 17 V 22E
*(US) APR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 121.7 V 113.0E (highest level in 14 months)
TXN Reports Q1 $1.87 v $1.56e, Rev $4.29B v $3.97Be
GOOGL Reports Q1 $26.29 v $15.46e, Rev $45.6B (ex TAC) v $42.5Be; Authorizes $50B share buyback

WEDS 4/28
DBK.DE Reports Q1 Net +€908M v -€43M y/y, Rev €7.23B v €6.58Be
SAN.FR Reports Q1 Business EPS €1.61 v €1.53 y/y, Op €2.64B v €2.54B y/y, Rev €8.59B v €8.97M y/y
386.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net +18.5B v -19.2B y/y, Rev 577B v 555.5B y/y
(US) Pres Biden reportedly to propose capital gains tax for wealthy as high as 39.6%; To propose $1.8T education, child care and paid leave package - press
SHOP Reports Q1 $2.01 v $0.78e, Rev $989M v $856Me; Momentum continued into 2021 as digital commerce tailwinds
BA Reports Q1 -$1.53 v -$1.17e, Rev $15.2B v $14.4Be
ETH/USD Ethereum jumps to record high on report of EIB digital bond issuance - press
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +0.1M V 0ME; GASOLINE: +0.1M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: -3.3M V 0ME
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK REMAIN, INFLATION HAS RISEN BUT LARGELY REFLECTS TRANSITORY FACTORS
(US) Fed Chair Powell: it is not time yet to start talking about tapering; in the meantime we will monitor progress toward our goals - post-decision Q&A
GM Introduces Ultium Charge 360, a holistic charging approach to integrate charging networks; new partnership to have 60K public chargers from 7 networks on the same app in US & Canada, including Blink Charging, ChargePoint, EVgo, and Shell's Greenlots
F Reports Q1 $0.89 v $0.16e, Rev $36.2B v $31.1Be; Sees losing ~50% of planned Q2 production and 10% of planned H2 production citing chip shortage
FB Reports Q1 $3.30 v $2.36e, Rev $26.2B v $23.8Be
F Global semiconductor shortage may not be fully resolved until 2022 - earnings slides
VZ Reportedly exploring sale of media assets including Yahoo and AOL, package could be valued at $4-5B - press
2282.HK Reports Q1 (HK$) Adj EBITDA +84.4M v -122.7M y/y; Rev 2.3B v 2.1B y/y
005930.KR Reports final Q1 (KRW) Net 7.09T v 4.9T y/y; Op 9.38T v 9.3T prelim; Rev 65.4T v 65.0T prelim

THURS 4/29
AIR.FR Reports Q1 adj Net €362M v -€481M y/y, Adj EBIT €694M v €281M y/y, Rev €10.5B v €10.3Be
066570.KR Reports Prelim Q1 (KRW) Net 998.3B v 1.0T y/y; Op 1.52T v 1.52T prelim; Rev 18.81T v 18.81T prelim
NOKIA.FI Reports Q1 €0.07 v €0.01e, Rev €5.08B v €4.86Be
RDSA.NL Reports Q1 CCS EPS $0.42 v $0.37 y/y, Adj CCS Net $3.23B v $3.06Be, Rev $55.7B v $60.0B y/y*
UNA.NL Issues Q1 trading update: Rev €12.3B v €12.1Be; To commence up to €3B share buyback in May
BAVA.DK Reports new preclinical data for COVID-19 vaccine candidate ABNCoV2 confirming potential for broad protection against SARS-CoV2 Variants; May be looking at the first universal COVID-19 vaccine
*(DE) GERMANY APR NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +9.0K V -10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.0% V 6.0%E
3328.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net 21.95B v 21.5B y/y, NII 38.55B v 36.7B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 110.3 V 102.1E
3988.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net 54.0B v 52.6B y/y, Op Income 157.9B v 148.5B y/y
VER To merge with Realty Income in all stock deal with combined EV of ~$50B
(US) Mayor De Blasio: To fully reopen NYC on July 1st
MA Reports Q1 $1.74 v $1.57e, Rev $4.2B v $3.97Be
*(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E
*(US) Q1 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 6.4% V 6.6%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 10.7% V 10.5%E
*(US) Q1 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 4.1% V 2.6%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 2.3% V 2.4%E
*(US) MAR PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.9% V 4.4%E; Y/Y: 25.3% V 27.5%E
(US) Labor Secretary Walsh: Most US gig workers should be classified as employees
(US) White House Press Sec Psaki: still evaluating report of directed energy attack near the White House
AMZN Reports Q1 $15.79 v $9.65e, Rev $108.5B v $105.1Be
SWKS Reports Q2 $2.37 v $2.34e, Rev $1.17B v $1.15Be
*(CN) CHINA APR MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.1 V 51.8E (13th month of expansion)

FRI 4/30
*(FR) FRANCE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.0%E
AZN.UK Reports Q1 Core EPS $1.63 v $1.48e, Rev $7.32B v $7.26Be
*(DE) GERMANY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.7% V -1.5%E; Y/Y: -3.3% V -3.6%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 8.3%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.8%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q1 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: -0.6% V -0.8%E; Y/Y: -1.8% V -2.0%E
AAPL EU confirms it has charged Apple with antitrust violations over App Store payments in Spotify dispute - press
XOM Reports Q1 $0.65 adj v $0.59e, Rev $59.2B v $55.2Be; Affirms FY21 capex plan, to further cut costs
*(US) MAR PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E
*(US) MAR PERSONAL INCOME: 21.1% V 20.2%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 4.2% V 4.1%E
(US) Apr Chicago Purchase Managers (PMI): 72.1 v 65.3e (highest level since December 1983)
*(US) APR FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 88.3 V 87.5E
(US) Biden Admin to ban travel to US from India by most non-US citizens due to pandemic - press
(US) White House: TSA extending face mask requirement for all travelers on US transportation through Sept 13th

Renewed optimism on vaccines and the economy hold up investor sentiment

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Renewed optimism on vaccines and the economy hold up investor sentiment

2021-04-23T16:12:07.1

Stocks trading was choppy this week as sentiment wavered between concerns about fresh waves of Covid-19 infections around the world and optimism prompted by promising economic data. Investors were afforded an ability to comb through a swath of companies' projections and other key indicators to gauge whether the economic recovery can stay on track and justify current valuations. Headlines from Europe were largely constructive. The ECB indicated they were not even discussing tapering the PEPP program to this point, while a German court ruled in favor of the EU recovery fund clearing a path to German ratification. The Euro rallied to the best levels since March back above 1.2050.

US equity markets rebounded Friday recovering all of Thursday's jolt lower, after reports surfaced that President Biden is considering nearly doubling capital-gains taxes on the wealthy to pay for his American Families plan. Crypto markets sold off hard on the tax headlines but too rebounded on Friday. Interest rates remained relatively stable with the US 10-year yield staying in the mid 1.5% range. S&P futures touched a new all-high before Friday’s closing bell, but the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all finished the week marginally lower.

In corporate news this week, as earnings season ramps up, IBM reported a Q1 above estimates and affirmed its FY outlook, notching revenue growth for the first time in five quarters. Netflix shares fell after subscription numbers saw a slowdown and its forecast missed expectations. Canadian National made a $325/shr rival bid for Kansas City Southern, higher than Canadian Pacific’s earlier offer, and reports late in the week suggested KSU would consider CN’s the superior proposal with both offers expected to face regulatory scrutiny. The UK government said it planned to look into the national security implications of Nvidia’s purchase of British semiconductor design ARM Holdings, casting a pall over the likelihood of the deal’s closure. Herman Miller announced it planned to acquire rival furniture retailer Knoll in a $25/shr cash and stock deal. Shares of Phillip Morris and Altria took a hit on reports the Biden administration is considering a rule to lower allowable nicotine levels in cigarettes, as well as a law to ban menthol brands.

SUN 4/18
GXY.AU Orocobre to acquire Galaxy in all share transaction, merger valued at A$4.0B

MON 4/19
KO Reports Q1 $0.55 v $0.50e, Rev $9.02B v $8.47Be
KNL To be acquired by Herman Miller for ~$25.06 in cash and stock deal valued at ~$1.8B
BMW.DE Reports prelim Q1 Pretax €3.76B v €798M y/y; ahead of market expectations
XXII Biden administration said to consider rule to lower allowable nicotine levels in cigarettes, as well as law to ban menthol cigarettes - press
IBM Reports Q1 $1.77 v $1.67e, Rev $17.7B v $17.4Be
UAL Reports Q1 -$7.50 v -$6.97e, Rev $3.22B v $3.25Be
STLD Reports Q1 $2.10 v $1.98e, Rev $3.54B v $3.28Be
RIO.AU Reports Q1 Pilbara iron ore shipments 77.8Mt v 72.9Mt y/y; Pilbara iron production 76.4Mt v 77.8Mt y/y

TUES 4/20
PG Reports Q3 $1.26 v $1.19e, Rev $18.1B v $17.8Be; Began broadly raising prices in mid-to-high single digit percentages
MAN Guides Q2 Rev +36-40% (+27-31% cc), gross profit margin 15.5-15.7%, op profit margin 2.3-2.5% - earnings slides
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.1% v +0.3% prior
*(US) JURY IN GEORGE FLOYD CASE FINDS DEFENDANT CHAUVIN GUILTY ON ALL COUNTS
DISCORD.IPO Discord reportedly ends deal talks with Microsoft; Discord plans to remain independent and to consider potential IPO - press

WEDS 4/21
ROG.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 14.9B v 15.1B y/y; affirms outlook
ERICB.SE Reports Q1 (SEK) Net 3.2B v 2.3B y/y; adj Op 5.3B v 5.0Be; Rev 49.8B v 52.7Be
HEIA.NL Reports Q1 Net €168M v €94M y/y; Organic beer volume 0.0% v -4.1%e
ASML.NL Raises FY21; Strong demand across markets drives expected Rev growth towards 30% (prior 'low double-digit growth, but could be increased') - earnings slides
(EU) German Court said to reject EU Recovery Fund related injunction - press
KNX Reports Q1 $0.83 v $0.70e, Rev $1.22B v $1.19Be; Demand is at unprecedented levels and expected to continue into 2022
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED; Announces taper process for QE bond buying
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +0.6M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +0.1M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: -1.1M V -0.5ME
(US) TREASURY $24B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.144%, BID-TO-COVER 2.42 v 2.51 PRIOR
CACI Reports Q3 $4.78 v $3.69e, Rev $1.55B v $1.58Be (update)
EFX Reports Q1 $1.97 v $1.52e, Rev $1.21B v $1.12Be
2303.TW Said to be increasing prices for chips with 8-inch and 12-inch wafers by ~15% in July; IC sources say the co. plans to raise prices by 40% in 2022 - Press

THURS 4/22
CSGN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Net -252M v +1.31B y/y, Pretax -757M* (ex-everything 3.6B) v 1.20B y/y, Rev 7.57B v 5.78B y/y; Sees CHF600M impact US hedge fund matter in Q2
SAP.DE Reports final Q1 (Non-IFRS) EPS €1.40 v €1.04 prelim, Op €1.74B v €1.48B y/y, Rev €6.35B v €6.35B prelim; affirms outlook
NESN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 21.1B v 20.3Be; Affirms outlook
*(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) MAR EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.01M V 6.11ME
(US) Pres Biden reportedly to propose capital gains taxes as high as 39.6% for those making over $1M per year (current capital gains rate is 20%); would add up to 43.4% if you include already-enacted 3.8% investment income tax - press

FRI 4/23
*(UK) DMO UPDATES ITS FY21/22 FINANCING REMIT: Cuts issuance from £295.9B to £252.6B
*(FR) FRANCE APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 59.2 V 59.0E (5th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 63.3 V 62.0E (10th month of expansion and record high)
(EU) ECB, BOE, SNB, BoJ, Fed and other central banks said to discontinue 3-month USD liquidity operations from July 1st - press
*(UK) APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 60.7 V 59.0E (11th straight expansion and highest reading since July 1994)
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) RAISES KEY 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE BY 50BPS TO 5.00%; MORE-THAN-EXPECTED
HON Reports Q1 $1.92 v $1.80e, Rev $8.45B v $8.13Be; Seeing promising signs of rapid recovery in some markets

Q1 earnings reports start strong, amplified by solid economic data

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Q1 earnings reports start strong, amplified by solid economic data

2021-04-16T16:03:13.2

A strong start to earnings season from banks and a handful of deep cyclical companies combined with data showing the economy is growing at a rapid clip propelled stocks higher this week. The Dow gained a foothold above 34,000 for the first time and by Friday the S&P notched its 23rd all-time closing high this year. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic more than a year ago, and a host of key readings including manufacturing and retail sales trounced consensus expectations. Adding to the momentum was a notable drop in U.S. government bonds yields, perhaps surprising some investors, in a week where the Treasury dumped another $124B in coupon supply onto the market. Oil prices rose and the Greenback fell to the lowest levels in about a month. Bitcoin also hit another new all-time high amid the direct listing launch of Coinbase, a popular crypto exchange. For the week, the S&P gained 1.4%, the DJIA was up 1.2%, and the Nasdaq added 1.1%.

In corporate news this week, the CDC issued a surprise announcement on Tuesday to recommend a pause on J&J vaccine distribution following six reported blood clot cases, and the regulatory agency plans to hold meetings late next week to further discuss the issue. Earnings season kicked off as the big financial houses released quarterly reports. JP Morgan posted a big beat on earnings amid strong trading, though loan demand remained challenged. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both beat the street on Q1 profits and revenues amid strength in their investment banking and trading divisions. Morgan Stanley also saw strong numbers from its trading operations, though the bank noted its Archegos-attributed losses reached over $900M.

Alcoa reported a solid quarter, raising its FY21 alumina shipment guidance and pointing to an improvement in profitability and top-line growth. Dell announced it would spin off its 81% ownership stake in VMware following months of negotiations, a move that would generate $9B in proceeds for Dell as it seeks to pay down debt. Microsoft said it would acquire speech recognition and conversational AI services company Nuance for $19.7B, the software giant’s largest deal since it purchased LinkedIn five years ago. Thermo Fisher announced it would buy drug development researcher PPD for $17B in a boost to its pharmaceutical services business.


SUN 4/11
9988.HK CEO Zhang: Do not see material negative impact from exclusivity change required by regulator, will do more to help merchants lower operating costs; unaware of any other investigations by SAMR - post fine conference call

MON 4/12
SEV.FR Veolia and Suez reach agreement on merger; Suez to be acquired for €20.50/shr by May 14th
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB RETAIL SALES M/M: 3.0% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: -2.9% V -5.3%E
UBER Reports Mar Gross Bookings reached highest level in history; Mobility Gross Bookings run-rate >$30B; On track to achieve FY21 adj EBITDA profitability - filing
NUAN Confirms to be acquired by Microsoft for $56.00/shr in cash in deal valued at $19.7B
(US) March NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Consumer optimism is rising amid higher inflation expectations
NVDA To release its first data center CPU, a processor for giant AI and high performance computing workloads
*(US) TREASURY'S $38B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.680%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.36 V 2.38 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS
*(US) MAR MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$660B V -$658.0BE
(US) SEC said to have told accountants that warrants do not count as equity, trying to calm down SPAC frenzy with accounting talks
(CN) Treasury Sec Yellen reportedly will Not designate China as a currency manipulator in biannual report – press

TUES 4/13
*(UK) FEB MONTHLY GDP M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E
*(DE) GERMANY APR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -48.8 V -54.1E
AGC Confirms to merge in deal to go public with Grab, a Superapp for Deliveries, Mobility and Financial Services in Southeast Asia, in deal valued at $39.6B (largest SPAC deal so far)
FAST Reports Mar net sales $531.4M, +12.4% y/y
JNJ US FDA and CDC confirm recommending pause on J&J vaccine after 6 reported blood clotting cases
*(US) MAR CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E
(UK) BOE chief economist Haldane to step down from role following June meeting - press
SAP.DE Reports prelim Q1 (Non-IFRS) EPS €1.04 v €0.85 y/y; Op profit +24% y/y; Rev €6.35B v €6.52B y/y; Cloud Rev +13% y/y at cc; raises FY21 guidance
*(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.320%; BID TO COVER 2.47 V 2.28 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS

WEDS 4/14
IEA Monthly Oil Report: oil prices may be pressured in coming months on supply
JPM Reports Q1 $3.31 adj v $3.05e, Managed Rev $33.1B v $30.1Be; Loan demand still "challenged"
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.9M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +0.3M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: -2.1M V +1ME
F To schedule downtime at plants for weeks of April 19th and 26th due to chip shortage - press
DELL Dell Technologies to spin-off 81% of VMWare stake as a public co
NSANY Adjusting production schedules at North American plants for rest of April due to semiconductor shortages
JNJ CDC advisory panel on JNJ's Covid vaccine decides Not to vote today; says need more data and will reconvene as quickly as possible

THURS 4/15
2330.TW Reports Q1 (NT$) Net 139.7B v 117.1B y/y, Op 150.5B v 128.5B y/y, Rev 362.4B v 310.6B y/y; Says chip shortage could continue into 2022
BAC Reports Q1 $0.86 v $0.65e, Rev $22.8B v $21.9Be - press
*(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES ONE-WEEK REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 19.00%; AS EXPECTED
PPD Confirms to be acquired by Thermo Fisher for $47.50/shr in cash valued at $17.4B plus $3.5B assumption of debt
*(US) APR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 26.3 V 20.0E
*(US) MAR ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 9.8% V 5.8%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 8.4% V 5.0%E
*(US) APR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 50.2 V 41.5E
DAL Reports Q1 -$3.55 v -$2.94e, Rev $4.15B v $3.87Be; saw cash generation in Mar
*(US) MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.4% V 2.5%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 74.4% V 75.6%E
*(US) APR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 83 V 83E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q1 GDP to 8.3% from 6.0%
JBHT Reports Q1 $1.37 v $1.18e, Rev $2.62B v $2.49Be
AA Reports Q1 $0.79 v $0.48e, Rev $2.87B v $2.66Be
DAI.DE Reports Q1 Prelim Adj EBIT €4.97B v €3.99Be (vs €719M y/y)
*(CN) CHINA Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 1.4%E; Y/Y: 18.3% V 18.5%E (record annualized growth)

FRI 4/16
(TR) Turkey said to have banned payments in Cryptocurrencies; effective Apr 30th
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR FINAL CPI Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E
(CN) China reportedly has given permission to import large amounts of Gold - press
*(US) MAR HOUSING STARTS: 1.739M V 1.613ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.766M V 1.750ME
*(US) APR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 86.5 V 89.0E; 1-year inflation expectations: 3.7% v 3.3%e