Sunday, January 23, 2022

Market trepidation continues to rise over Fed rates, Ukraine, and earnings quality

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Market trepidation continues to rise over Fed rates, Ukraine, and earnings quality

2022-01-21T16:04:31.753

2022’s rocky start for investors continued this week. Equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies all fell as investors continued to de-risk portfolios ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The growing specter of four or more Fed rate hikes this year, along with continued high inflation exacerbated by pandemic effects on the global supply chain, and worries around the rising likelihood of a conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine, all weighed on risk appetite. Global bond yields initially spiked in what turned out to be a wild ride for fixed income traders. The German 10-year Bund yield found its way into positive territory for the first time since April 2022, while the US 10-year topped 1.9% and looked on its way to 2%. Oil prices reached 7-year highs fanning inflation concerns along with European CPI readings.

By Friday the Dow and NASDAQ had moved below their 200-day moving averages and the S&P looked poised to follow. Bitcoin fell back below $40K testing a key technical level for the second time this month. The US 10-year retreated back below 1.75% and the BUND was at -8BPS once again. Volumes jumped along with the VIX into January options expiration. Potentially adding to the consternation, China’s PBOC was forced to cut key lending rates across several of their facilities. In some cases, like the 5-year LPR, it was the first rate cut since April of 2020 and viewed as another move to support the beleaguered property sector. Traders also prepared for what will be the busiest gauntlet of Q1 earnings season next week, following several high profile misses and preannouncements already. For the week, the S&P lost 5.7%, the DJIA was off 4.6%, and the Nasdaq ended down 7.6%.

In corporate news this week, big financial firms released more earnings from a lackluster quarter. Goldman Sachs stock fell by the most since mid-2020 amid higher expenses and provisions for credit losses. Schwab shares fell after its Q4 daily average trades missed estimates. Bank of America beat street consensus on profit and posted record investment banking and wealth management revenue.

Netflix stock sank on a disappointing subscriber outlook and a warning that competition is having an effect on its marginal growth. Peloton shares were tripped up on a report that the company plans to temporarily halt its production of connected fitness products due to waning consumer demand, though the company later said “rumors of halting all bike and tread production” were “false.” Procter and Gamble said it has informed retailers it plans to increase pricing on certain personal health care brands in US beginning mid-April. Microsoft announced it would buy Activision, the maker of ‘Call of Duty’ and ‘Warcraft’ video games, in a $68.7B all-cash deal, which would be the most expensive acquisition in the tech giant’s history.


SUN 1/16
WMT Trademarks filings from Dec 2021 show Walmart is preparing to create its own cryptocurrency and collection of virtual goods, such as NFTs - press
(HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) issues proposal that will abolish the role of lawyers as middlemen in residential mortgage transactions, will go into effect in H2 after consultations and a trial period - SCMP

MON 1/17
UNA.NL Sets out the strategic direction in materially expanding its presence in Health, Beauty, and Hygien fields; Confirms GSK/Pfizer's Consumer Health is a highly complementary category for Unilever, with good potential for synergies and a number of routes to build scale
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €251.0/MWh, +73.1% d/d
(AE) Explosions said to have occurred in 3 petroleum tanker trucks in Abu Dhabi's Mussafah; drones likely behind explosion - press
(AT) Austria said to have confirmed mandatory vaccination for everybody aged 18 and higher from Feb 1st - press
(DE) Germany Fin Min Lindner: it is time to build up fiscal buffers again; I am in favour of reducing debt - pre-Eurogroup meeting comments
(RU) Reportedly US and EU no longer considering unplugging Russia from SWIFT system - German press
RIO.AU Reports Q4 Pilbara Iron Ore production 84.1Mt v 86.0Mt y/y; Shipments: 84.1Mt v 88.9Mt y/y
BNTX According to Israeli study, some preliminary data shows 4th dose of COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty raises antibodies but doesn't protect against Omicron variant - financial press
TSLA Said to be targeting 2022 deliveries of 1.5-2.0M units v 937K y/y v 1.35Me; Opened bidding for EV camera modules - press

TUES 1/18
BOSS.DE Reports prelim Q4 EBIT €100M v €13M y/y, Rev €906M v €862Me; Says benefitted from ongoing robust consumer sentiment in key markets
(UR) Russia said to have pulled people out of their embassies in Kyiv and Lviv inside the Ukraine - NYT
(EU) EU27 Dec New Car Registrations: -22.8% v -20.5% prior; EU sales of electric vehicles (EVs) surpassed diesel vehicle sales in Dec (1st time ever)
TM Confirms it targets to produce 700K vehicle units in Feb 2022 (prior had goal of 900K); Expects to miss FY21/22 production target of 9M units citing chip shortage; Notes current demand is very strong
BP Exec: strong and growing demand (incl. 45% increase in Q3 2021 v Q2 2021) has brought profit margins of electric fast chargers close to fuel pumps - press interview
*(DE) GERMANY JAN ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -10.2 V -8.8E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 51.7 V 32.0E
BABA US said to be examining cloud unit for potential national security risks - press
SHOP Reportedly steps up China expansion through tie-up with JD.com - JD blog
GS Reports Q4 $10.81 v $12.10e, Rev $12.6B v $12.1Be
ATVI Confirms to be acquired by Microsoft for $95.00/shr valued at $68.7B all-cash deal; Microsoft sees deal will be accretive to non-GAAP earnings per share upon close, planned during FY23
*(US) JAN EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -0.7 V +25.0E (1st negative reading since June 2020)
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +4.6% v +0.3% prior
*(US) JAN NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 83 V 84E
VZ Confirms launch of its 5G Ultra Wideband network tomorrow; Voluntarily decided to limit our 5G network around airports
JBHT Reports Q4 $2.28 v $1.99e, Rev $3.50B v $3.29Be

WEDS 1/19
ASML.NL Reports Q4 Net €4.39 v €3.78e, Rev €4.99B v €5.14Be; Expected impact of the fire in part of a building at our Berlin site is included into FY22 outlook; Sees significant growth opportunities beyond 2025
(CN) China Cyberspace Regulator said to want platform companies with >100M users or >CNY10B Rev to obtain approval for investments or fundraising
*(UK) DEC CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.2%E (5th month above target and highest annual pace since Mar 1992)
*GERMAN 10-YEAR YIELD TURNS POSITIVE FOR THE 1ST TIME SINCE APR 2019
ASML CEO: demand in 40-50% above maximum capacity; May take 2-3 years to achieve balance between demand and supply - post earnings comments
IEA Monthly Oil Report (OMR): steady rise in supply could see a significant surplus materialize in Q1 2022 and going forward; Saudi Arabia and Russia could break their output records
UNH Reports Q4 $4.48 v $4.30e, Rev $73.7B v $73.0Be; Affirms FY22 outlook
BAC Reports Q4 $0.82 v $0.76e, Rev $22.1B v $22.1Be
FAST Reports Dec net sales $476.0M +11.0% y/y
PG Reports Q2 $1.66 v $1.65e, Rev $21.0B v $20.3Be; Sees paying more than $8B in dividends in FY22; Says price increases accounted for roughly half of Q2 Rev growth
PLD Reports FFO Q4 $1.12 v $1.10e, Rev $1.28B v $1.06Be; Guides init FY22 strong; "Demand shows no signs of slowing"
*(US) DEC HOUSING STARTS: 1.702M V 1.650ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.873M V 1.703ME
(US) FTC Chair Khan: We need to make sure merger laws are in line with realities; Merger guidelines review will go beyond technology sector - CNBC
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast to 5.1% from 5.0%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 15th: 494K total units, -6.6% y/y
*(US) TREASURY $20B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.210% V 1.942% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER 2.48 V 2.59 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
AA Reports Q4 $2.50 v $2.04e, Rev $3.34B v $3.29Be
GEF To implement a $50/ton price increase on all uncoated recycled paperboard (URB) grades and a minimum 6% increase on tube and core and protective packaging products
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: CUTS BOTH 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR RATES

THURS 1/20
ALO.FR Reports Q3 Rev €3.92B v €3.73B y/y; Affirms FY21/22 and medium-term objectives
(DE) Germany Dec PPI M/M: 5.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 24.2% v 19.3%e
3333.HK Ad-hoc bondholders group said to hire Harneys [law firm], considers enforcement action
*(ID) INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK (BI) LEAVES 7-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%; AS EXPECTED; To raise RRR
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED; Reiterates forward guidance that interest rate is likely to be raised in Mar 2022
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.0% V 5.0%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E (record high for annual pace)
TRV Reports Q4 $5.20 v $3.86e, Rev $9.01B v $8.71Be
(RU) Russia Central bank confirms to propose banning crypto mining and circulation; Proposals still up for discussions - press
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 286K V 225KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.635M V 1.56ME
*(US) JAN PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 23.2 V 19.0E
*(US) DEC EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.18M V 6.43ME
(US) Sen Manchin (D-WV) indicates he is open to reengaging on revised Build Back Better plan; 'We’ll be talking to everybody who wants to talk' - NBC reporter
PTON Reportedly to temporarily halt production of connected fitness products amid waning consumer demand - CNBC
US reportedly gives Baltic states approval to send weapons to Ukraine - press
(US) Fed seeks public comment on Central Bank Digital Currency; Outlines potential benefits of CBDC
NFLX Reports Q4 $1.33 v $0.82e, Rev $7.71B v $7.70Be; Acknowledges competition is affecting marginal growth; Expects being FCF positive for FY22 and beyond; In 2022 will expand its portfolio of games; Notes US dollar appreciation will cost ~$1B in FY22 Rev
CSX Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.41e, Rev $3.43B v $3.30Be
SON Implementing additional $50/ton price increase for uncoated recycled paperboard; Effective Feb 18th
PPG Reports Q4 $1.26 v $1.19e, Rev $4.19B v $4.03Be; Guides Q1 well below ests
3333.HK Says risk management committee is actively looking for solutions and communicating with creditors; proposes to engage additional professionals, including China International Capital Corporation Limited and BOCI Asia Limited as financial advisors; to engage Zhong Lun Law Firm LLP as legal advisor
PTON CEO: Confirms Peloton is mulling layoffs; rumors of halting all bike and tread production false

FRI 1/21
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia wants NATO to leave Romania and Bulgaria as part of security proposals to US
INTC Confirms to invest more than $20B to build two new factories in Ohio, US; Construction expected to begin late in 2022, production to come online in 2025
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS RATE ON STANDING LENDING FACILITY (SLF) BY 10BPS); Effective Jan 17th
SLB Reports Q4 $0.41 v $0.39e, Rev $6.22B v $6.09Be; Expects oil demand to exceed prepandemic levels before end-2022 and to further strengthen in 2023
(UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index -4.0% at 1,415 points (lowest since Feb 2021)
(UA) Lithuania and Latvia plan to send Ukraine Stinger air defense missiles - press
(DE) Germany Chancellor Scholz: Germany will not send weapons to Ukraine
GM Reportedly plans to invest $6.5B into two Michigan production sites; Aims to create 4K jobs - local press

Sunday, January 16, 2022

Markets continue to recalibrate around shrinking accommodation and stubborn inflation

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets continue to recalibrate around shrinking accommodation and stubborn inflation

2022-01-14T16:03:16.917

US stock markets, in particular growth and tech, remained under pressure this week amid rising expectations of a more aggressive US Federal Reserve in 2022. Chairman Powell and Vice Chair nominee Brainard appeared on Capitol Hill for their confirmation hearings and presented a united front in their belief the Fed’s key task is now to bring down inflation. Those hearings were sandwiched around a loud chorus of Fed officials who underscored views that it will in all likelihood be appropriate to raise rates 3-4 times this year beginning in March, while simultaneously allowing the balance sheet to start shrinking later this year. December CPI and PPI only reinforced those expectations remaining at multi-decade highs. Also, concerns around the pandemic lingered, particularly with respect to new government mandated shutdowns across portions of China. Reports surfaced of elevated congestion at key Chinese ports adding to jitters surrounding the global supply chain and its potential effects on future inflation.

Another source of uncertainly for investors was growing worries about Russia’s designs on Ukraine. Talks between the US, Russia, and NATO appeared to gain little if any traction towards de-escalation amid reports of a major cyberattack in the former Soviet territory. Earnings season kicked off on Friday as commentary from a few key banks failed to live up to the early 2022 hype seen in their stock prices. Crude prices rose back towards the highs of last fall, fanning inflation worries while the US dollar index fell to a 2-month low. Short rates moved up amid futures markets nearly fully pricing in a fourth Fed rate hike in December. The US 10-year Treasury yield looked to gain a foothold above 1.75%. For the week, the S&P lost 0.3%, the DJIA was off 0.9%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%.

In corporate news this week, bank names kicked off earnings season to mixed reaction. Results from JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo all topped Q4 EPS estimates, but the magnitudes of all three beats were the smallest of 2021. Citi saw a steep profit drop and reported a trading revenue miss, sending the stock lower on Friday. JPMorgan shares also fell as its expense guidance caused some consternation. Wells Fargo rose after reporting that profit rose 86% in Q4 and revenue beat consensus.

Sherwin Williams cut its outlook again, citing supply side effects and labor headwinds. Delta Airlines reported results above consensus and management said they expect Omicron to temporarily delay demand recovery by 60 days, but remained confident in a strong spring and summer travel season. Taiwan Semiconductor was a bright spot, reporting a strong improvement in year over year metrics and announcing plans for record capex spending in FY22, as much as 10% higher than analysts predicted. A judge rejected Facebook’s effort to dismiss an FTC antitrust lawsuit which if successful could ultimately force the social media giant to sell Instagram and WhatsApp. Take-Two Interactive acquired Farmville developer Zynga for $13B as part of a move into the mobile gaming space. In the latest inflationary sign, it was reported that Netflix will raise subscription prices by about 10% in the US and Canada.


SUN 1/9
(US) Sen Manchin (D-WV) appears to be pulling back support for Build Back Better, thought to have privately said he is not interested in approving the legislation - US press
(CN) China will make it easier for state backed property developers to buy up distressed assets of property developers

MON 1/10
(UK) Brexit negotiator Truss: I will trigger Article 16 if the EU does not cooperate - financial press
(US) Goldman Sachs analysts: Fed will likely raise interest rates four times (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) this year and will start its balance sheet runoff process in July, if not earlier
CSGN.CH Recent strength being attributed to press report that Credit Suisse may be looking for merger with other European bank, likely Italian or French
(UA) Ukraine Dep PM Stefanishyna: Have the right to choose our own security arrangements
*(EU) EURO ZONE NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.2% V 7.2%E
(US) Reportedly Washington University's scientific modelling shows Omicron's fatality rate is 97-99% less than for Delta variant, being less deadly than seasonal flu - press
CAH Cuts FY22 Medical segment guidance due to expected additional INFLX impacts and lower volumes & Px hike fails; Sees $0.40-0.45/shr impact to FY22 results vs $5.69e or ~8% cut
ZNGA To be acquired by Take-Two for $9.861/shr in ~$12.7B cash-stock deal
MRNA Reports prelim FY21 Product Sales $17.5B v $17.6Be, Covid-19 Vaccines shipped 807M
(US) Dec NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Short- and medium-term inflation expectations are unchanged
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast to 6.8% from 6.7%
ILMN Reports prelim Q4 Rev $1.19B v $1.09Be; Guides initial FY22 Rev $5.15-5.24B v $4.88Be
*(US) FED CHAIR POWELL: FED WILL STOP HIGHER INFLATION FROM GETTING ENTRENCHED - PRE-RELEASED CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY
(CN) China Housing Ministry official Pan: China to build ~6.5M new low cost homes by the end of 2025
(US) Puerto Rico judge approves modified debt plan, will approve quickly once board refiles (ahead of Friday deadline)

TUES 1/11
NOKIA.FI Reports prelim FY21 Rev €22.2B (prior guided €21.7-22.7B), comparable Op margin 12.4-12.6% (prior guided 10-12%) citing one-off items related to venture fund investments etc.
(DE) Germany said to miss the 2030 climate target of reducing CO2 level by 65% from 1990 level - financial press
CVS Raises FY21 $8.33-8.38 v $8.03e (prior $8.00), Affirms FY22 $8.10-8.30 v $8.23e - filing
AAL Reports prelim Q4 Pretax -$1.23B to -$1.16B, -13% to -12% y/y, Rev $9.42B v $9.12Be, -17% v 2019 levels (prior guided -20%) - slides
(LT) ECB's Kazaks (Latvia): Reiterates that ECB will act if necessary to address inflation
(US) Fed's George (FOMC voter, hawk): Favors running down Fed balance sheet earlier versus later; It's time to transition policy to more normal posture
(US) Fed Chair Powell: If we have to raise rates more over time, we will - comments to Senate
FB Judge rejects Facebook effort to dismiss FTC antitrust lawsuit; FTC's lawsuit may potentially make Facebook sell Instagram and WhatsApp - press
(HK) Fitch: Gaming operators that have Macau exposure are facing uncertainty

WEDS 1/12
BMW.DE Reports Q4 global deliveries 589.3K -14% y/y; FY21 global deliveries 2.52M +8.4% y/y
VOW3.DE Reports Dec Group deliveries 713.2K -28.5% y/y, cites chip shortage
*(US) DEC CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 7.0% V 7.0%E (highest annual pace since 1982)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.6M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +8.0M V +2.5ME; DISTILLATE: +2.5M V +1ME (Crude oil inventory level lowest since Oct 2018)
(US) Fed's Mester (FOMC voter, hawk): We have moved from pandemic driven inflation pressures to something broader; Would support raising rates in March if the outlook stays the same - press interview
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 8th: 441K total units, -16% y/y
*(US) TREASURY'S $36B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 1.723% v 1.52% prior; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.51 V 2.58 PRIOR AND 2.47 OVER THE LAST 8 REOPENINGS
*(US) DEC MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$21.3B V -$5.0BE
(US) Fed Vice Chair nominee Brainard: Pandemic continues to pose challenges; Slowing too high inflation is Feds most important task; Policy is focused on getting inflation back down to 2% - prepared remarks ahead of confirmation hearings

THRS 1/13
2330.TW Reports Q4 (NT$) Net 166.2B v 142.8B y/y; Op 182.8B v 157.1B y/y; Rev 438.2B v 361.5B y/y; Targets long term Rev CAGR target 10-15% over next few years
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Talks with US and NATO this week were unsuccessful, disagreements on fundamental issues
MAERSKB.DK Exec: 2022 has not started off as we had hoped; At Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, delays for vessel berthing ranged from 28 to 45 days, with all North American west coast ports being either challenging or critical - press interview
BA Reportedly 737 Max to resume service in China as soon as in Jan - press
DAL Reports Q4 $0.22 v $0.14e, Rev $9.47B v $9.24Be; Expects Omicron to temporarily delay the demand recovery 60 days, but confident in strong spring, summer travel season
RNO.FR CEO: Sees chip issues to persist through 2022, but no worse than 2021; Profitability and pricing improving now, met cost goal; To become fully electric by 2030
EMA announces global regulators discuss path towards regulatory alignment on response to Omicron variant; Broad agreement that clinical data are needed for approving a new updated vaccine
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 230K V 200KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.56M V 1.73ME
*(US) DEC PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.2% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 9.7% V 9.8%E
(US) Fed Vice Chair nominee Brainard: I supported all the Fed's actions during the pandemic; Our actions will bring inflation down
*(US) TREASURY $22B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.075% V 1.895% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.35 V 2.22 PRIOR AND 2.36 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) Supreme Court blocks Pres Biden's workplace vaccine-or-test mandate for larger employers in 6-3 decision; Rule had covered 84M American workers - press
SAP.DE Reports prelim Q4 non-IFRS EPS €1.86 v €1.70 y/y; Rev €8.0B v €7.5B y/y; Expects its cloud growth to continue to accelerate in 2022
(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy makers said to be debating when to 'telegraph' a rate hike that can come before hitting 2.0% CPI target; notes an actual rate hike is not imminent - financial press
*(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) RAISES 7-DAY REPO RATE 25BPS TO 1.25%; AS EXPECTED
*(CN) CHINA DEC TRADE BALANCE: $94.5B V $74.0BE; 2021 EXPORTS +29.9% Y/Y

FRI 1/14
*(UK) NOV GDP M/M: 0.9% V 0.4%E
EDF.FR Cuts FY22 nuclear output 300-330TWh (prior 330-360TWh), as a result of the extension of the outage period for 5 of EDF's French nuclear reactors; To impact FY22 EBITDA by around €8.4B
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: All communications channels with EU are closed; Believes can have a security agreement with US with good will
MAERSKB.DK Reports prelim Q4 underlying EBITDA $8.0B v $7.0Be, Rev $18.5B v $17.5Be; To exceed FY21 guidance
(UK) Brexit negotiator Truss: there is a deal to be done with EU over post-Brexit trade issues
JPM Reports Q4 $2.86 (ex Net credit reserve release) v $2.98e, Adj overhead ratio 61% v 55% y/y; Managed Rev $30.4B v $29.9Be
JPM Guides initial FY22 NII $50B v $52.5B guided for FY21; Adj expense $77B v $71B guided for FY21 - earnings slides
SHW Reports prelim Q4 $1.35 adj v $1.70e, Rev $4.76B v $4.79Be; Increasing prices 12% FEB 1 2022; Raw materials supply challenges to persist
C Reports Q4 $1.46 v $1.39e, Rev $17.0B v $17.1Be
(US) Senate bill said to block defense contractors from using China rare earths in weapons for Pentagon - press
*(US) DEC ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.9% V -0.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: -2.3% V 0.1%E
*(US) DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.5% V 77.0%E
(US) Fed's Williams (FOMC voter):Expects inflation to drop to around 2.5% this year; Omicron wave to slow growth in next few months
(US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, non-voter): We are seeing very high inflation right now; Surprised by how high and persistent it is
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q4 GDP forecast to 5.0% from 6.8%
Raises monthly prices in US and Canada beginning today; US standard price raised to $15.49/mo (from $13.99/mo); First price hike since Oct 2020 - press

Saturday, January 8, 2022

Markets reset expectations with higher rates and less stimulus ahead

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets reset expectations with higher rates and less stimulus ahead

Fri, 07 Jan 04:03 PM EST/09:03 PM GMT

2022 trading started off volatile, with large swings across stock and bond markets. Investors fled some of the most popular trades of the past year as the Fed looked poised to begin raising rates as soon as March. The December FOMC minutes underscored the Fed was even closer to liftoff than previously thought, and that the balance sheet will in all likelihood shrink at a much faster pace than during the last cycle once tapering is finished and rates start to rise. Bonds and other long duration assets, notably US technology shares came under significant pressure as traders aggressively rotated into banks and other traditionally defensive sectors that offered exposure to yield. Omicron infections continued to explode, increasing workforce absenteeism and stretching health care facilities in many nations around the world. Federal, state and local governments were forced to adopt new measures while dealing with modest additional closures, but the overall narrative that this current wave is less severe and will likely be shorter lived largely held.

On Friday, the December jobs report highlighted the pressure the Fed faces. Rates remained on an upward trajectory while futures markets saw expectations for a March Fed liftoff cemented after the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and wage gains easily surpassed expectations. Despite missing December non-farm payroll expectations, the monthly employment report continued to suggest that labor shortages have added to sustained cost pressures in the economy. Also, the Euro rose on Friday after Euro Zone December Preliminary CPI hit a fresh record high. Bitcoin dropped 10% this week, falling back towards $40K for first time since October, as investors began to question its ability to offer a true store of value amid a drawdown in assets correlated to rising interest rates. Oil prices rose after OPEC+ producers agreed to continue pumping more crude, betting that Omicron won't have the sort of devastating effect on demand as previous Covid waves. For the week, the S&P fell 1.9%, the DJIA was off 0.3%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 4.5%.

In corporate news this week, Walmart announced plans to hire over 3,000 delivery drivers in order to expand its home delivery service to reach 30M households. Humana shares took a deep drop after the health insurer cut its Medicare Advantage enrollment guidance, despite affirming FY21 and FY22 earnings outlook.

Ford management doubled its all-electric F-150 Lightning production estimates to 150K units annually amid high demand. GM began taking orders for its Silverado EV pickup truck this week, with sales expected to start in spring 2023. Stellantis announced its Chrysler brand would launch its first battery EV by 2025, and aimed to have an all-EV lineup by 2028.

On the COVID front, a CDC advisory panel voted nearly unanimously to recommend 12- to 17-year-olds should get the Pfizer booster shot at least five months after their second dose. The FDA shortened the interval for a booster dose of Moderna’s vaccine to five months for those 18 and older.


SUN 1/2
TSLA Reports Q4 deliveries 308.6K v 266Ke v 241.3K q/q; FY21 deliveries 936.0K v 499.6K y/y
(HK) Macau Dec Casino Rev (MOP) 7.96B v 6.75B prior; Y/Y +1.8% v 0.0% prior (-5.5%e)
T AT&T and Verizon have rejected FAA request to delay rollout of 5G, they offered a counter proposal that would allow limited deployments to go ahead this week - letter to USDOT
005930.KR May invest >KRW35.0T into chip business in 2022; invested KRW32.9T in chip facilities in 2020 - Korean press
(CN) China property developers have a combined $197B in debt coming due in January [relates to various types of payments (including bond, trust product and wage costs)] - financial press

MON 1/3
(TR) Turkey Dec CPI M/M: 13.6% v 8.5%e; Y/Y: 36.1% v 27.4%e (inflation accelerated for a 7th straight month and highest annual pace since Sept 2002)
*(IT) ITALY DEC MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.0 V 61.5E (18th month of expansion)
OPEC reportedly sees tighter Q1 as it considers next oil-production hike; Now estimates Q1 oversupply ~25% smaller - press
PFE FDA takes multiple actions to expand use of PFE-BNTX COVID-19 Vaccine; Amends EUA to expand use of a single booster dose to include children aged 12-15 years; Shorten time between primary vaccine and booster to at least 5 months (prior 6 months); and allow for a third primary dose for certain immunocompromised children 5 through 11 years of age
*(US) DEC FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.7 V 57.7E (confirms 18th consecutive month of expansion; Lowest since Dec 2020)
(CN) China Cyberspace Administration has released a revised set of internet security rules to go into effect on Feb 15th

TUES 1/4
*(DE) GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: +0.6% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V -3.1%E
(FR) French IHU Mediterranee Infection Institute scientists reportedly discovered new COVID-19 variant B.1.640.2, probably of Cameroonian origin - press
*(DE) GERMANY DEC NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -23.0K V -15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.2% V 5.3%E
F Planning to nearly double all-electric F-150 Lightning production to 150,000 units annually
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +0.3% v -1.5% prior
*(US) NOV JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 10.6M V 11.1ME
GM Reports Q4 sales 440.7K vehicles, -43% y/y
(US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, non-voter): Expects two rate hikes in 2022
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q4 GDP forecast to 7.4% from 7.6%
(HK) Hong Kong has discovered its first untraceable case of covid (within the last 3 months)

WEDS 1/5
WMT To expand in home delivery to reach 30M households and will hire >3.0K delivery drivers
STLA.NL Chrysler brand to launch first battery EV by 2025; The brand will also seek to have an ALL EV lineup by 2028
(KZ) Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said to accept govt resignation - Russian press
(HK) Hong Kong confirms to tighten COVID-19 restrictions for 2 weeks from Jan 8th; To tighten social distancing measures until Jan 20th - press
(US) US lawmakers said to have started early talks on another round of COVID-19 relief for businesses; Relief might be valued at $68B and focused on restaurants, gyms, venues - WaPo
RPM Reports Q2 $0.79 v $0.86e, Rev $1.64B v $1.58Be
(LT) ECB's Kazaks (Latvia): ECB will take action if inflation outlook picks up, early 2023 rate hike is possible scenario
*(US) DEC ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +807K V +410KE (largest increase since May 2021); Notes private sector payrolls are still ~4M jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels
FB Reportedly has halted development of new software OS that would power its VR devices and upcoming AR glasses; Company denies the story - The Information
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 1st: 395K total units, -6.3% y/y
*(US) FOMC DEC MINUTES: BALANCE SHEET COULD SHRINK FASTER THAN LAST CYCLE; SOME PARTICIPANTS SAY RATES COULD RISE BEFORE MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT IS REACHED
COST Reports Dec total SSS +11.5% y/y (ex-gas and FX)
PFE CDC advisory panel votes 13-1 to recommend 12- to 17-year-olds should get COVID booster at least 5 months after 2nd dose - press
(HK) Macau to ban all flights from outside China, from Jan 9th to Jan 23rd; as part of COVID protection measures
*(CN) CHINA DEC CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 53.1 V 51.9E (4th month of expansion)
(CN) China has launched its digital Yuan (DCNY) wallet in the Android and Apple app stores - Press

THURS 1/6
*(DE) GERMANY DEC CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: +0.5% V -0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.1% PRIOR
WBA Reports Q1 $1.68 v $1.35e, Rev $33.9B v $32.9Be; Raises FY22 outlook
CAG Reports Q2 $0.64 v $0.68e, Rev $3.06B v $3.06Be
BBBY Reports Q3 -$0.25 v $0.00e, Rev $1.88B v $1.96Be; Announces further SG&A and expense optimization of ~$100M annualized; Cuts FY21 outlook and guides Q4 weak
STLC.CA Discloses Q4 shipments lower than expected due to unplanned outages and covid-related impacts
HUM Affirms FY21 $20.50 v $20.65e; Affirms FY22 $21.50 v $24.50e, but cuts FY22 membership growth outlook; Expects COVID will be net neutral to the Medicare Advantage business in 2022 - ahead of investor conf
DKS Raises again FY21 $15.50-15.60 (prior $14.60-14.80) v $14.82e, SSS +25.8-26.1% (prior 24-25%) - filing
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 207K V 195KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.75M V 1.68ME
(US) Pres Biden: One year ago today a President tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power; Have to make sure another attack never happens again
*(US) DEC ISM SERVICES INDEX: 62.0 V 67.0E
(US) New York allows mobile sports betting to begin this Saturday, Jan 8th; DraftKings, FanDuel, Rush Street & Caesars are approved to open NY state mobile sites - press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q4 GDP forecast to 6.7% from 7.4%
QDEL Reports prelim Q4 Rev $633-637M v $502Me
005930.KR Reports Q4 prelim (KRW) Op 13.8T v 15.2Te (v 9.1T y/y) , Rev 76.0T v 75.6Te (v 61.6T y/y)

FRI 1/7
066570.KR Reports Q4 prelim (KRW) Op 681.6B v 647.0B y/y; Rev 21.0T v 18.8T y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 5.0% V 4.8%E (record high); CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E
*(US) DEC CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +199K V +447KE (below lower-end of all analysts' expectations)
*(US) DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.9% V 4.1%E
*(US) DEC AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.2%E

Sunday, December 26, 2021

Omicron infections surge, but worries abate, allowing Santa Claus rally to take hold

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Omicron infections surge, but worries abate, allowing Santa Claus rally to take hold

2021-12-23T16:01:40.823

Investor risk appetite waned early this week as investors worried that the exponential rise in Omicron variant cases would stall economic growth and add pressure to inflation. Governments continued to intensify social restrictions, particularly in Europe. Adding to the jitteriness was China's central bank decision to cut the one-year loan prime rate amid a slowing economy that has been dragged by a slump in the property sector. In Washington, Senator Manchin continued to hold up the chances of President Biden's Build Back Better plan getting through Congress despite the President's insistence that they will get something done early next year. Major US averages were once again under their 50-day moving averages and the VIX had popped back above 25.

As the news flow around Omicron improved so too did investor sentiment. By mid-week a powerful Santa Claus rally took US indices back towards all-time highs. Though Omicron infections continued to explode, the narrative that they largely remained less severe seemed to offer some solace to investors that this wave may ultimately be shorter and do less economic damage than prior Covid waves. Also, both Pfizer and Merck received FDA approval for their antiviral pills while data continued to show mRNA vaccines offer protection against Omicron. A Walter Reed study garnered attention as well after it was reported that the US Army has developed a vaccine effective against COVID-19 and all its variants including Omicron. The report noted that and imminent data set may also show the vaccine could offer protection from future variants and previous SARS-origin viruses. For the week, the S&P gained 2.3%, the DJIA was up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 3.2%.

In corporate news this week, Nike reported an earnings and revenue beat for Q2 but saw its Asia sales falter amid factory closures and transportation issues. Micron’s outlook exceeded consensus and the chip manufacturer said PC production had been hurt by other component shortages, though demand remains strong and supply is improving. Sanderson Farms reported a jump in earnings as robust retail chicken prices offset a rise in feed grain costs. Novavax said a two-dose primary regimen of its COVID vaccine demonstrated cross-reactive immune responses against Omicron and other variants. The FDA authorized both Pfizer and Merck antiviral COVID treatments, though it did not authorize Merck’s product for those under 18 years old. Oracle confirmed the $28B acquisition of electronic health records vendor Cerner as it pushes into the digital patient space. AT&T announced it would sell the online advertising platform Xandr Inc. to Microsoft Corp. as it scales back its digital marketing ambitions. Investors reacted poorly to Crocs' announcement that it would acquire casual footwear brand HeyDude for $2.5B, selling shares off by more than 10%.

SUN 12/19
(US) Sen Manchin (D-VW) says he will Not support Biden's "Build Back Better" legislation
1638.HK Missed total of $118.8M interest payments for bonds due 2021, 2023, 2025 notes and $400M in prinicpal payments for 2021 notes; Bonds due 2021 and 2026 remain in grade period through Jan; Have been in talks with holders on debt restructuring plan
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: CUTS 1-YEAR RATE BY 5BPS TO 3.80% [1st cut in the 1-year LPR since Apr 2020], maintains rate on 5-year LPR

MON 12/20
MRNA Prelim booster data shows increased antibody levels 37x with 50 µg dose against Omicron, and by 83x with 100µg dose
(US) NY Fed takes $1.76T in RRP program at 0.05%; 81 participating and accepted counterparties (Record high)
MU Reports Q1 $2.16 v $2.10e, Rev $7.69B v $7.66Be
NKE Reports Q2 $0.83 v $0.63e, Rev $11.4B v $11.2Be
(CN) China loan prime rate (LPR) is expected to be cut further in 2022, RRR cut is also expected in H1 – Chinese press
(US) SEMI Nov North America-based Manufacturers of Semi Equipment Billings: $3.93B (record high), +5.0% m/m and +50.6% y/y

TUES 12/21
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -1.5% v +1.4% prior
MRK FDA reportedly to authorize PFE's Paxlovid and MRK's molnupiravir Covid pills this week - press
(US) TREASURY $20B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 1.942%, BID-TO-COVER 2.59 v 2.25 PRIOR AND 2.37 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) NY Fed takes $1.75T in RRP program at 0.05%; 77 participating and accepted counterparties
(IL) Israel government advisory panel of health experts recommends giving the 4th booster shot
(CN) Satellite pictures show China military build up in the South China Sea using new warfare style weapons and tactics - press

WEDS 12/22
(US) Walter Reed US Army researchers expect to announce soon [within weeks] that they have developed a vaccine effective against COVID-19 and all its variants including Omicron, as well as from its future variants and previous SARS-origin viruses - financial press
MAERSKB.DK Acquires omnichannel fulfilment contract logistics firm LF Logistics Holdings for EV of $3.6B cash; Gives firm a network of warehouses
(RU) Yamal-Europe pipeline said to be running in reverse for a 2nd straight day; Russia's Gazprom cites cold temperatures
3333.HK Evergrande's Risk Management Committee statement; Utilizing its extensive resources and will actively engage with the Group's creditors in order to mitigate the Group's risk
*(US) Q3 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.3% V 2.1%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.0% V 1.7%E
*(US) Q3 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 6.0% V 5.9% PRELIM; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.6% V 4.5% PRELIM
(TR) Reportedly Turkish Treasury had set USD/TRY reaching 18 as a redline to trigger its Lira rescue plan - press
*(US) DEC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 115.8 V 111.0E (best reading since July)
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Dec 18th: 504.1K total units, -3.1% y/y
NVAX Announces initial Omicron cross-reactivity data from COVID-19 vaccine booster and adolescent studies; Two-dose primary regimen demonstrated cross-reactive immune responses against Omicron and other variants
700.HK Declares interim special dividend payable in ~HK$128B JD.com shares; To pay 1 Class A share of JD.com for every 21 shares held by shareholders

THURS 12/23
AZN University of Oxford study supports use of AstraZeneca’s Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine as third dose booster against Omicron; Neutralizing antibody levels against Omicron following a third dose of Vaxzevria were broadly similar to levels achieved after two doses against the Delta variant
(RU) Russia President Putin: Have the impression that Ukrainian govt is preparing for military operation in Donbass region; Russia does not seek conflict - annual press conference
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 205K V 205KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.86M V 1.84ME

Friday 12/24
Markets closed for Christmas Holiday

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Fed Formally Opens Door to H1 2022 Liftoff Amid Resurgent Covid-19

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Fed Formally Opens Door to H1 2022 Liftoff Amid Resurgent Covid-19

2021-12-17T16:12:07.433

Equity markets began the week under pressure, in particular, a significant rotation away from tech/growth and the NASDAQ. A plethora of upcoming central bank decisions as well as surging Covid-19 infections had investors on edge. US Treasury yields moved lower and the curve resumed its recent significant flattening trend. Headline PPI was hot with larger-than-expected gains in food and energy, while the core index saw larger-than-expected increases in numerous components, including passenger air fares, core goods, and miscellaneous services. The data only reinforced expectations that a hawkish Fed would speed up taper when the FOMC announced its rate decision on Wednesday.

Chair Powell and the Fed did not disappoint. The FOMC statement doubled the pace of taper to $30B, as expected. Updated SEP projections showed the majority Fed members now expect three rate hikes in 2022 bringing their forecasts in line with futures markets. Powell emphasized the Fed would not raise rates until taper is complete and they also do not expect to stop taper sooner to make room for an earlier liftoff. Markets took the formal hawkish pivot in stride and welcomed the news. Stocks and commodities rose while Treasury yields remained well behaved, within recent ranges. A surprised rate hike by the BOE on Thursday and a decidedly more dovish ECB statement did little to rock the overall boat though equity prices continued to trend lower into options expiration on Friday. For the week the S&P fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the NASDAQ slumped ~3%.

In corporate news this week, FedEx reported solid Q2 earnings and guided higher amid strong demand and an improving labor situation. Oracle was said to be in advanced talks to acquire electronic medical records provider Cerner in a potential $30B deal. Pfizer agreed to acquire Arena Pharmaceuticals for almost $7B, and it plans to accelerate the clinical development of Etrasimod for patients with immuno-inflammatory diseases. Apple reportedly plans to open a new office in California to bring wireless chip production in-house, which could replace certain parts from suppliers Skyworks and Broadcom.

SUN 12/12
PFE Israeli study said to confirm significant protection of Pfizer/BioNTech booster dose against Omicron variant, but lower than the neutralization ability against Delta variant
(FR) France govt said to have drop threat of trade war with UK, after Channel Islands and UK Govt agree to more fishing licenses - press

MON 12/13
ARNA To be acquired by Pfizer for $100/shr valued at $6.7B - filing
(DE) German year-ahead baseload power price rise above €200.00/MWh (1st time ever) following comments from Foreign Min Baerbock on Nord Stream 2
(UK) Health Sec Javid: Expects hospitalizations and deaths to rise dramatically
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: China and Hong Kong officials are currently meeting in Shenzhen about quarantine-free travel plan
1777.HK Denies media report on creditor takeover

TUES 12/14
7203.JP Investing ¥4.0T into battery EVs by 2030 and additional ¥4.0T into new energy vehicles; Targets 3.5M unit sales of EV and Fuel Cell vehicles
(DE) Germany IFO Institute update economic outlook: Forecasts Q4 domestic GDP at -0.5%
PFE According to South African 3-week study based on >211K samples, 2 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine provide 70% protection against hospitalization, 33% protection against infection during current Omicron wave [prior speculated 22.5% efficacy in another SA study] - press
IBM IBM and Samsung unveil new VTFET semiconductor design utilizing a new vertical transistor architecture that demonstrates a path to scaling beyond nanosheet
PFE Reveals additional Phase 2/3 study results confirming robust efficacy of novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate in reducing risk of hospitalization or death
PLUG Partners with Certarus on Green Hydrogen supply and expansion of distribution infrastructure; Plug Power to provide Certarus with 10t/day of green hydrogen with deliveries expected to start in Q1 2022
*(US) NOV PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 9.6% V 9.2%E (highest annual pace on record)
WHO's Ryan: We have a number of weeks before we expect peak of Omicron wave to hit
VIE.FR EU Commission approves acquisition of Suez by Veolia subject to conditions - press
(UK) MPs vote 441 to 41 in favor to expand use of face coverings; 369 to 126 in favor of covid passes for some venues and large events (as expected)
*(CN) CHINA NOV NEW HOMES PRICES M/M: -0.3% V -0.3% PRIOR (3rd straight decline, largest m/m decline since early 2015); Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.4% PRIOR

WEDS 12/15
*(UK) NOV CPI M/M: 0.7% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 4.8%E (4th month above target and matches highest annual pace since Sept 2011)
7203.JP Planning 800K vehicle production in Jan 2022 v ~800K m/m; Affirms FY21/22 production plan of 9.0M units
SVA According to Hong Kong study, Sinovac vaccine said to provide 'inadequate' protection against Omicron variant - FT (update)
NUE Guides Q4 $7.65-7.75 v $7.63e; Demand in nonresidential construction markets remains strong
LOW Guides initial FY22 $12.25-13.00 v $12.82e, Rev $94-97B v $97.0Be, SSS -3% to flat; Authorizes a new $13B share buyback (7.6% of market cap) to $20B in total - PR ahead of financial outlook call
*(US) DEC EMPIRE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 31.9 V 25.0E
(US) NOV ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.8%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.3% V 0.9%E
*(US) DEC NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 84 V 84E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Dec 11th: 513.4K total units, -6% y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: cuts Q4 GDP forecast to 7.0% from 8.7%
(US) NY Fed takes $1.62T in RRP program at 0.05%; 85 participating and accepted counterparties (Record high)
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% RANGE; AS EXPECTED; DOUBLES PACE OF TAPER TO $30B PER MONTH; OFFICIALS SEE THREE RATE HIKES IN 2022
*(US) FOMC SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (SEP) FOR DEC
(US) Fed Chair Powell: We will not raise rates until taper is complete; Does not expect to stop taper sooner for earlier liftoff - post-rate decision Q&A
LEN Reports Q4 $4.36 v $4.14e, Rev $8.43B v $8.53Be

THURS 12/16
*(FR) FRANCE DEC PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 54.9 V 55.4E (13th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY DEC PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.9 V 57.0E (18th month of expansion)
*(CH) SWISS NATIONAL BANK (SNB) LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED AT -0.75%; AS EXPECTED; Reiterates forward statement
*(EU) EURO ZONE DEC PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 58.0 V 57.8E (17th month of expansion)
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) RAISES DEPOSIT RATES BY 25BPS TO 0.50%; AS EXPECTED; Says most likely to raise rates again in Mar 2022
*(UK) DEC PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.6 V 57.6E (19th straight expansion)
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) RAISES BANK RATE BY 15BPS TO 0.25%; NOT EXPECTED (1st hike in 3 years); Reiterates modest tightening in monetary policy is likely
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) DEC MINUTES: VOTED 8-1 TO RAISE BANK RATE (Tenreyro dissented to keep policy steady)
(RU) Reportedly Russian Central Bank (CBR) seeks to ban investments in cryptocurrencies in Russia - press
*(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
ADBE Reports Q4 $3.20 v $3.18e, Rev $4.11B v $4.08Be
*(US) NOV HOUSING STARTS: 1.679M V 1.567ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.712M V 1.661ME
*(US) DEC PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY: 15.4 V 29.6E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 206K V 200KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.85M V 1.94ME
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Economic momentum has moderated but expected to pick up again - Prepared remarks
*(US) NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.6%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.8% V 76.8%E
*(US) DEC PRELIMINARY MARKIT PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.8 V 58.5E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q4 GDP forecast to 7.2% from 7.0%
AAPL Reportedly plans new office in California to bring wireless chips in-house; Could replace parts from Skyworks and Broadcom - press
(US) NY Fed takes $1.66T in RRP program at 0.05%; 85 participating and accepted counterparties (Record high)
(UK) Four more Premier League soccer matches postponed in the UK due to COVID outbreak at various clubs - press
FDX Reports Q2 $4.83 v $4.23e, Rev $23.5B v $22.5Be; Adds $5B to buyback plan (8% of market cap)
X Guides Q4 adj EBITDA $1.65B v $2.1Be; Reflects a temporary slowdown in order entry activity

FRI 12/17
*(EU) EURO ZONE NOV FINAL CPI Y/Y: 4.9% V 4.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E (confirms 4th month above target and highest annual pace since Euro's launch back in 1999)
- CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e
*(DE) GERMANY DEC IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 94.7 V 95.3E (6th straight monthly decline)
(US) Fed's Williams (FOMC voter): Expect really good progress on maximum employment; Very focused on too high inflation levels and real interest rates - CNBC
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) RAISES KEY 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE BY 100BPS TO 8.50%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Fed's Waller (hawk, voter): Fed has flexibility to adjust policy as early as the spring; Wants to put March on the table for liftoff if needed
(US) NY Fed takes $1.70T in RRP program at 0.05%; 77 participating and accepted counterparties (Record high)
(TR) Turkey reportedly considering plan to ease capital strains on bank, including capital injection - press

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Pfizer Allays Omicron Worries, Nov CPI Makes for Lively Dec FOMC Meeting

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Pfizer Allays Omicron Worries, Nov CPI Makes for Lively Dec FOMC Meeting

2021-12-10T16:02:40.37

US stock markets rose this week as Omicron fears continued to fade. Reports out of South Africa continued to show Omicron cases have generally remained mild and hospitalizations had not ticked up significantly. In Monday’s news, at what appeared to be the behest of Chinse government leadership, the PBOC cut is overall reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, which also served as a catalyst for risk assets, equities in particular. On Wednesday, in a much anticipated announcement, Pfizer said three doses of its Covid-19 vaccine do indeed provide a high level of protection against the Omicron variant in a new study. The news propelled stocks to make another leg higher, along with US Treasury yields. The 2-year yield topped 0.7% for the first time since before the pandemic, while futures markets were once again pricing in three Fed rate hikes in 2022. The flattening along the US yield curve was pronounced as US employment data (JOLTS/claims) remained historically strong and attention turned towards Friday’s key US inflation reading.

US Nov CPI saw the largest rise in nearly four decades, but the data did not spook markets as some participants were likely positioned for. The year-over-year growth rates for both the core and headline readings were in line with expectations at 4.9% for the core and 6.8%, with rising shelter costs locking in a higher floor. Most economists project y/y readings to track even higher in the coming months, giving the Fed little reason to second-guess last month’s hawkish pivot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Treasury yields actually moved lower across the entirety of the US curve and US stock markets lifted following the release. Gold prices drifted higher and the US dollar lost ground. The VIX dipped back below 20, well off the recent spike highs above 30. Mega cap growth and value stocks continued to handily outperform small cap, and speculative growth masking the ongoing turmoil across significant portions of US stock markets, despite the the S&P posting an all time high on Friday. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ had their best weeks since Q1 2021. For the week, the S&P rose 3.8%, the Dow jumped 4% and the NASDAQ gained 3.6%.

In corporate news, Oracle posted its largest weekly gain after reporting an upbeat Q3 and raising buybacks by $10B. Broadcom notched better than expected Q4 earnings and revenue, noting chip lead times are extended though stable. Chewy reported tough earnings, sending shares plummeting, as executives pointed to macro headwinds for the company’s weak performance. Apple reportedly told suppliers to accelerate iPhone production in the Nov-Jan period as supply chain issues would leave the tech giant about 15M units short of its 230M iPhone production plan. Stellantis said it would partner with Foxconn to design and sell new flexible semiconductors for the automotive industry. Toyota confirmed plans to build its first EV battery plant in North Carolina, investing $1.29B. The prospects for certain US tech names remained cloudy after the EU affirmed it intends to make tech companies reclassify gig workers as employees, though member countries still need to negotiate the final details before ratification.

SUN 12/5
BAVA.DK Reports positive topline Phase 2 results for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate; The candidate increases existing levels of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies against Wuhan, Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, could be used as booster vaccine
(UK) UK govt scientific advisors warn that COVID-19 pandemic will pose a threat for at least next 5 year before it settles into a predictable endemic state - UK press
(RU) Reportedly Russia could invade Ukraine in 3 stages, aiming to take over 2/3 of Ukraine's territory; Military actions may start in end-Jan 2022 or early Feb 2022 - German press

MON 12/6
(ZA) Director of Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa Hanekom: Omicron variant has a less than 1% chance of re-infection and typically results in milder disease - UK press
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS OVERALL RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO (RRR) BY 50BPS; effective Dec 15th
FAST Reports Nov net sales $524.2M +18.9% y/y
TM Confirms plans to build its first EV battery plant in North Carolina, investing $1.29B - press
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: Travel between Hong Kong and China to begin with business groups
(CN) China PBOC to cut relending rate by 25bps to support SME and rural sector, effective Dec 7th; says rate cut should not be regarded as a cut of policy rates (MLF and 7-day reverse repo rates) - China Securities Times

TUES 12/7
STLA.NL Targets ~€20B in incremental annual Rev by FY30 driven by software-enabled vehicles
GSK.UK Preclinical studies demonstrate GSK/Vir investigational monoclonal antibody sotrovimab retains activity against the full combination of mutations in the spike protein of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant
STLA.NL Partners with Foxconn to design and sell new flexible semiconductors for automotive Industry
*(DE) GERMANY DEC ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -7.4 V +5.7E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 29.9 V 25.4E
(US) Reportedly in South African Pretoria hospital, out of 166 patients with COVID-19 admitted from Nov 14 to Nov 29, average stay was 2.8 days, and fewer than 7% died - NYT
(EU) Reportedly concerns growing among ECB council members regarding potential extending QE program beyond Q2 2022 due to persisting inflation - FT
(RU) Russia and India agree to extend military technical cooperation for another decade; India to proceed with delivery of S-400 missile system from Russia - press
AZO Reports Q1 $25.69 v $20.83e, Rev $3.67B v $3.36Be
*(US) Q3 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -5.2% V -4.9%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 9.6% V 8.3%E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +1.4% v +1.9% prior
*(US) OCT CONSUMER CREDIT: $16.9B V $25.0BE
PFE Africa Health Resource Institute: Study shows 40-fold reduction in neutralization capacity of Pfizer Comirnaty vaccines against Omicron variant; Some protection remains
AAPL Reportedly has told suppliers to accelerate iPhone production in Nov-Jan period; Supply chain woes will leave Apple about 15M units short of its 230M iPhone production plan set at the start of 2021 - Nikkei
BNTX CEO: data on Covid vaccine efficacy against the Omicron variant could be out Wed, Dec 8th or Thursday, Dec 9th; Would be more optimistic - NBC News

WEDS 12/8
*(DE) PARLIAMENT FORMALLY VOTES TO APPOINT SCHOLZ AS CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY
(UK) PM Johnson said to introduce new restrictions to curb Omicron variant spread in UK; To announced its “Plan B" imminently (as soon as today, Dec 8th) - FT
LUV Raises Q4 Op Rev -15% to -10% v 2019 levels (prior -25% to -15%); Affirms load factor 80-85%; Leisure travel demand was strong for Thanksgiving and continues to come in above expectations for Dec - investor day slides
PFE Proclaims three vaccine doses neutralize Omicron variant; 2-dose significantly less effective, but still could prevent from severe disease (as suggested on 12/7); Continue to advance development of a variant-specific vaccine for Omicron and expect to have it available by March
BF.B Reports Q2 $0.49 v $0.54e, Rev $994M v $1.07Be
*(US) OCT JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 11.033M V 10.47ME (record high)
(UK) PM Johnson: We are seeing rapid growth of Omicron cases in the UK like in South Africa; We can't assume Omicron is less severe than previous variants at this point; UK will move to 'Plan B'
1777.HK Receivers appointed for company, cites HK corporate registry filing - US financial press

THURS 12/9
AMZN (IT) Italy antitrust regulator said to fine Amazon €1.13B over market dominance - press
3333.HK Fitch cuts Evergrande ratings to 'restrictive default' referred to default on its dollar debt
(EU) ECB said to plan for a temporary increase in the APP bond buying (conventional QE) scheme that would still significantly reduce overall debt purchases after PEPP program ends - financial press
(EU) EU confirms plan to make online platform companies to reclassify workers as employees which could cost them ~€4.5B/yr ; EU Commission to negotiate with EU countries and lawmakers on final draft before adoption - press
(CN) China PBOC raises Forex RRR by 200bps to 9.00%; Effective from Dec 15th - press
VOW3.DE Provides update on five year investment plan: Planning total investments of €159B; Affirms FY21 Op margin upper end 6.0-7.5%
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 184K V 220KE (lowest since 1969); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.99M V 1.91ME
*(US) TREASURY $22B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 1.895%; BID TO COVER 2.22 V 2.36 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
LULU Reports Q3 $1.62 v $1.39e, Rev $1.45B v $1.43Be
ORCL Reports Q2 $1.21 v $1.11e, Rev $10.4B v $10.2Be; Raises buybacks by $10B (4% of market cap)
COST Reports Q1 $2.98 v $2.60e, Rev $50.4B v $50.0Be
AVGO Reports Q4 $7.81 v $7.75e, Rev $7.41B v $7.35Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 13.9% to $4.10 from $3.60 (indicated yield 2.81%); Authorized $10B buyback
(US) US Senator Wyden (D-OR) said the billionaires tax has not been included in the Finance Committee's text; Separate report said Democrats will remove the vaping tax from the Senate plan amid negotiations related to the details of the bill

FRI 12/10
*(UK) OCT GDP M/M: 0.1% V 0.4%E
*(DE) GERMANY NOV FINAL CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.2%E (confirms highest annual pace since 1993 reunification)
(UK) UK healthcare analysts said to see Omicron variant spreading faster in UK than in South Africa; Reportedly daily Omicron cases could top 60K/day by Christmas - press
ASO Reports Q3 $1.75 v $1.16e, Rev $1.59B v $1.50Be
*(US) NOV CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 6.8% V 6.8%E (highest annual pace since 1982)

Sunday, December 5, 2021

Fed to Discuss Speedier Taper Despite Omicron Worries

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Fed to Discuss Speedier Taper Despite Omicron Worries

2021-12-03T16:03:04.463

The market was caught firmly in a grip of speculation about a new Covid variant this week even as central bank officials continued to discuss pushing the pace of unwinding stimulus efforts. It won’t be clear for several weeks whether the new Omicron variant is a bigger health threat than Delta or if it will become the dominant strain, but vaccine makers like Moderna said they are already working to develop an Omicron-specific vaccine for distribution in 2022. Meanwhile, many European leaders announced they would renew some social restrictions to combat a rising wave of Covid cases on the continent. With these developments, the Treasury yield curve saw notable flattening with longer duration yields coming under significant pressure, while equity markets experienced a surge in volatility, mostly to the downside. The VIX rocketed nearly 60% trough to peak this week to finish at levels not seen since January. The Dow tested below its 200-day moving average while the S&P and NASDAQ fell below their 50-day moving averages. For the week, the S&P fell 1.22%, the DJIA lost 0.92%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.6%,

Despite some new concerns, Fed officials continued to consolidate around the idea of accelerating the taper of QE, which Chair Powell said he would bring up at next FOMC meeting later this month. Powell also perturbed markets with his decision to retire the term ‘transitory’ in the description of the current state of inflation, creating more speculation that the timetable for rate liftoff could be moved up further. Friday’s jobs data added fuel to that speculation as unemployment hit its lowest level since February 2020, though nonfarm payrolls gains were weaker than expected.

In corporate news this week, Salesforce shares tumbled after its Q4 outlook disappointed investors. HPE hit an intraday record after reporting a beat on the top line and affirming guidance. Kroger posted stronger than expected results and again raised its full year EPS outlook. Dollar General however fell after reporting a drop in profit and cutting SSS guidance. DocuSign shares plunged after posting disappointing revenue and billings numbers amid COVID reopening headwinds. Major European names Michelin and BASF announced significant price increases in some specific categories as inflation worries continued to weigh on markets. Twitter founder Jack Dorsey stepped down from his role as CEO, but said he will remain in charge of his other venture, Square.

SUN 11/28
Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb: US travel ban on African countries over Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is “counterproductive”
(IL) Israel bans entry of all foreigners for 2 weeks to contain Omicron variant spread - press
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Eurozone is now better equipped for potential new wave of COVID-19 infections of Omicron variant; Reiterates ECB council stance that inflation spike is tied to temporary factors
World Health Organization's (WHO) issues statement on Omicron variant: not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta, but preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron
MRNA Chief Medical Officer: think Omicron may elude current vaccines; new vaccine for Omicron variant may be ready in early 2022
*(ZA) CHAIRWOMAN OF SOUTH AFRICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION COETZEE: New Omicron variant of COVID-19 results in mild disease, without prominent symptoms
7201.JP CEO: Planning to introduce solid state battery by 2028, build factory in 2024; To invest >¥2.0T into electrification of vehicles over next 5 years (over the 1.0T speculated through 2030); To introduce 23 new EVs by 2030 - Ambition 2030
(JP) Japan PM Kishida: Will ban entry of all foreign visitors till further notice; Effective Nov 30th - Comments on Border

MON 11/29
EO.FR Cuts again FY21 Rev to €15.0-15.5B (prior €15.5B); Op margin at 5.5% (prior 6.0-6.2%) to reflect new downward revision of automotive production in Europe
VACN.CH CEO: cannot deliver many new products this year due to supply chain issues which could last until 2023 or 2024 - press interview
(ZA) South Africa Health Min Karim: based on what we know, we expect vaccines to protect from severe Omicron disease, hospitalizations
World Health Organization's (WHO): new COVID-19 Omicron variant poses a "very high" risk globally - technical briefing document for its members
(FR) France European Affairs Min Beaune said to see Dec 10th deadline for resolution on Brexit fishing licence talks - financial press
*(DE) GERMANY NOV PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.0%E (highest annual pace since 1993 reunification)
(FR) France Fin Min Le Maire: Our top priorities will be to see digital Euro put in practice: Nuclear must find a place in energy transition
*(US) OCT PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 7.5% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: -4.7% V -7.2% PRIOR
*(US) NOV DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 11.8 V 17.0E
WMT CEO: Port and transit delays are 'improving'; Has seen 26% rise in containers going through US ports over last four weeks - press
AMZN NLRB allows Amazon workers at Bessemer, AL facility a new unionization vote - press
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Greater virus concerns could slow job market progress and intensify supply chain woes; Omicron variant adds to economic risks and inflation uncertainty - testimony to Senate
*(CN) CHINA NOV MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.1 V 49.8E (1st expansion in 3 months)
(US) Adobe: US customers have spent $7.1B on Cyber Monday as of 9PM ET (does not include 3 hours left) v $10.2-11.3B prior guided for full day v $10.8B y/y

TUES 11/30
MRNA CEO Bancel reiterates that he believes that the current coronavirus vaccines will not be as effective against Omicron; think it's going to be a material drop, just not how much yet, need more data, but all the scientists I've talked to say 'this is not going to be good"
EZJ.UK Reports final FY21 Pretax -£1.04B [reported basis] v -£1.27B y/y, Rev £1.46B v £1.46Be; Current FY'22 H2 revenue booked is ahead of FY'19 level; Notes dropoff in demand from Omicron is less from previous variants
(CN) China Researcher: New Omicron variant could make coronavirus more infectious (**Note: in line with WHO's statement)
(EU) EU Drug Regulator chief Cooke: Do not know if new vaccines against Omicron variant are needed but preparing for that - EU Parliament testimony
*(DE) GERMANY NOV NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -34.0K V -25.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.3% V 5.4%E (new post-pandemic low)
*(EU) EURO ZONE NOV ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 4.9% V 4.5%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.3%E (5th month above target and record high since EUR currency launch)
REGN Reportedly preliminary tests indicate COVID-19 antibody drug cocktails from Regeneron and Eli Lilly & Co. lose effectiveness against Omicron, while Vir/GSK drug sotrovimab maintained its efficacy - US financial press
(UK) Oxford University scientists: No evidence so far that vaccines will not provide high levels of protection against severe disease from Omicron variant
(US) Nevada reports Oct casino gaming Rev $1.22B, +48.5% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $702.2M, +86.9% y/y
*(US) NOV CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): 61.8 V 67.0E
*(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 109.5 V 110.9E (lowest since Feb)
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Appropriate to consider wrapping up taper a few months sooner, Will talk about speeding up taper at next FOMC meeting
CRM Reports Q3 $1.27 v $0.92e, Rev $6.86B v $6.79Be; Guides Q4 eps below consensus
AMBA Reports Q3 $0.57 v $0.49e, Rev $92.2M v $90.5Me
(HK) Macau Nov Casino Rev (MOP) 6.75B v 4.37B prior; Y/Y 0.0% v 2.0%e

WEDS 12/1
(JP) Follow Up: Japan to halt all incoming international flights for 1 month [relates to new international flight bookings] - Japanese media
(IL) Israel Health Min Horowitz: There are first indications that individuals fully vaccinated against COVID-19 within 6 months or with the booster are protected against the Omicron variant - Jerusalem Post
*(IT) ITALY NOV MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.8 V 61.1E (17th month of expansion and record high)
JBLU CEO: Business travel 45-50% off from normal levels; Sees it back to around 75% in 2022 - event comments
SABR Reports Nov Gross air bookings -51% v Nov'19, Net air boking -51% v Nov'19 (prior to Omicron)
SAN.FR CEO: Early booster shot for COVID results encouraging; Expects Phase 3 results before year-end
*(US) NOV ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +534K V +525KE; Notes it is too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months
*(US) NOV FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.3 V 59.1E (confirms 17th consecutive month of expansion)
*(US) NOV ISM MANUFACTURING: 61.1 V 61.2E; PRICES PAID: 82.4 V 85.5E
BAS.DE Raises prices for additives for paint and coatings industry up to 35%; Effective immediately
(SA) South Africa NICD: Omicron variant able to get around some immune protection, but protection against severe disease and death from vaccines should be less affected
(DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Proposes mandatory Covid vaccinations begin Feb 2022
(US) CDC identifies first case of Omicron variant in the US in San Francisco, California; Individual was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms; Patient is self-quarantining
COST Reports Nov total SSS +9.2% (ex-gas and FX) y/y
AAPL iPhone component suppliers were said to have been told that demand has slowed down [comments relate to the iPhone 13] - press

THURS 12/2
K Says has reached tentative agreement with union, relates to 5-year labor contract that covers 1,400 workers [terms not initially disclosed] - press
GSK.UK Preclinical data demonstrate that GSK/Vir COVID-19 antibody treatment sotrovimab retains activity against key Omicron mutations, new SARS-CoV-2 variant; Data to be confirmed by further in vitro pseudo-virus testing
OPEC+ said to likely to discuss pausing oil production increase or lowering it to 200K bpd in January as among its options - press
*(EU) EURO ZONE OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.3% V 7.3%E
RYA.UK Exec: back above 100% of pre-COVID capacity - press
BA China aviation authority issues airworthiness directive on Boeing 737 MAX - press
KR Reports Q3 $0.78 v $0.67e, Rev $31.9B v $31.1Be; Raises FY21 outlook
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 222K V 240KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.96M V 2.00ME (new post-pandemic low)
All OPEC+ ministers appear to be in agreement with an increment of 400k for Jan (ie a rollover of the current policy) - Energy Intel's Bakr sources:
(US) Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove): Thinks more older workers and those with children will be able to return to labor market eventually
(US) SEC adopts rule that would require US-listed foreign firms to disclose whether they're owned or controlled by a govt entity
(RU) Belarus Pres Lukashenko: Russia and Belarusian soldiers will hold joint maneauvers in Belarus on Ukraine border in two stages over next few months - German press
MRVL Reports Q3 $0.43 v $0.38e, Rev $1.21B v $1.15Be
DOCU Reports Q3 $0.58 v $0.46e, Rev $545M v $529Me; Misses billings estimates
Z Raises Q4 Homes segment Rev $2.3-2.9B (prior $1.7-2.1B); Authorizes $750M share repurchase program (5.4% of market cap)
KSU Achieved record daily average grain carloads in Nov
(US) New York Gov Hochul: 5 coronavirus omicron variant cases identified in New York [Suffolk County, Queens and Brooklyn]; encourages the use of indoor masks
DIDI Confirms begins prep for Hong Kong listing and working on delisting in the US [said to target filing for Hong Kong listing near Mar 2022]
*(CN) CHINA NOV CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 52.1 V 53.0E [3rd month of expansion]
TSLA CEO Musk files form 4: Sells ~$1.0B in additional shares after exercising options [relates to transactions conducted on Dec 2nd]

FRI 12/3
(TR) Turkey Nov CPI M/M: 3.5% v 3.0%e; Y/Y: 21.3% v 20.7%e (inflation accelerated for a sixth straight month)
(RU) Ukraine Defense Min Reznikov: reiterates Russia may be ready to escalate situation near Ukraine border by end-Jan 2022
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Omicron variant shows vaccinations must be stepped up; economic impact will depend on measures; ECB attentive to currency movements
*(EU) EURO ZONE OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4%E
(UK) BOE's Saunders (dissenter): Will need to raise rates soon if economy develops as forecasted; Must weigh costs of waiting for data on Omicron variant
(US) US FDA aims to fast review Omicron vaccines and drugs - press
3333.HK Received a demand to perform its obligations under a guarantee of ~$260M; No guarantee that the Group will have sufficient funds to continue to perform its financial obligations
*(US) NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.2% V 4.5%E (lowest since Feb 2020); Participation Rate: 61.8%
*(US) NOV CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +210K V +550KE (below lower-end of ALL analyst expectations)
*(US) NOV AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.8% V 5.0%E
IMF Chief Economist Gopinath: It is appropriate for the US Fed to accelerate tapering and bring forward the path for rate hikes; Other nations may also need to tighten monetary policy earlier than expected if inflationary pressures become broad based
*(US) NOV ISM SERVICES INDEX: 69.1 V 65.0E (another all time high)