Sunday, March 20, 2022

Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

2022-03-18T16:09:48.05

Stock markets built on the momentum coming out of last week despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict. A continued easing in commodity prices, most notably crude appeared to underscore improving sentiment early on. Also, Chinese stocks saw a dramatic bounce after Premier Liu He, in a speech, promised to keep equity markets stable while also opening the door to additional stimulus measures for the Chinese economy (though specific policy changes are yet to be announced). Early in the week a narrative held that Ukraine and Russian negotiators were both giving positive assessments on progress being made in difficult peace talks. That narrative began to take on water as the week progressed in light of continued developments on the ground and, in particular, a defiant and bellicose address from President Putin. On Friday, Presidents Biden and Xi discussed Ukraine and Taiwan in a 2-hour call that, according to both sides, went well but offered little in terms of deliverables. Gold prices retreated and the US dollar softened as the week progressed.

As expected, on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve commenced a tightening cycle with a 25 basis point hike. Importantly, updated Fed forecasts now have the median FOMC official projecting the Fed Funds rate to rise to nearly 2% by the end of this year and exceeding the neutral rate of around 2.5% for both 2023 and 2024. In his press conference, Chairman Powell seemed to indicate that the balance sheet reduction plan will be announced at the May meeting, while emphasizing the FOMC is “acutely aware of” and “determined” to contain inflation. The clearly hawkish signal may have been blunted by the fact futures markets had already priced in 6 or 7 rate hikes this year while others noted with the Fed’s path now clearer much of the message may have already been priced into stocks. Following the Fed announcement the NASDAQ rebound gained momentum and the US yield curve flattened, highlighted by a brief inversions in the 5/10 year spread. Also on the Central Bank beat, the BOE raised rates, as expected, but the announcement included one dovish dissenter who wanted to see rates stay pat which put modest downward pressure on Gilt yields. For the week, the S&P rebounded 6.2%, the DJIA gained 5.5%, and the Nasdaq surged 8.2%.

In corporate news this week, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced he would step down, with former CEO Shultz returning to serve as interim CEO in early April. Toyota cut its April global production estimates by 17% and said it was uncertain how many vehicles would be impacted by Japan’s recent earthquake that caused power outages. Ford reportedly told dealers it sees lighter deliveries through May as suppliers are not providing parts on time. Both Uber and Lyft announced new fuel charges to ease the load on drivers as gas prices spike, while FedEx implement a fuel surcharge increase to offset higher fuel costs. FedEx also reported a miss on its top line as profit margins were hit from delivery network expansion and new customer intake, while labor costs continued to rise and the peak shipping season was lighter than anticipated.

Pfizer and BioNTech sought Emergency Use Authorization for an additional booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine for older adults, while Moderna asked the FDA to authorize a second booster for adults of all ages. Netflix moved closer to shutting down the ability to share passwords across households, as it launches a pilot program in some Latin American countries that would force such users to pay an ‘extra member’ fee. In M&A news, the bidding for Kohl’s heated up with reports that Sycamore and Hudson Bay could make an offer in the high $60's. Nielsen shares jumped after reports that a consortium including Elliott is in late stage talks to acquire it for around $15B including debt.


SUN 3/13
(IQ) Iran launches salvo of missiles into Iraq; 12 reportedly land near US consulate in Erbil, Kurdistan province of Iraq; no injuries reported
(RU) Russia Central Bank says trading on MOEX will not resume for week of March 14-18th
(IN) Reportedly US ready to seek nuclear agreement without Russia; Will not rule out interim or replica deal; Scope of differences on Iran deal are sanctions relief on Iran - financial press
F Reportedly informed dealers that its deliveries will be lighter until end-May citing 37 suppliers which failed to provide parts as scheduled; Expects FY22 deliveries at 1.66M v 1.9M y/y - press
*(RU) RUSSIA NEGOTIATOR SLUTSKY: ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS, IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROGRESS IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS MAY DEVELOP INTO A JOINT POSITION OF THE DELEGATIONS AND INTO DOCUMENTS TO SIGN
(CN) China reports 3,122 new COVID-19 cases on Mar 13th (highest in nearly 2 years) - press
(UR) Lviv governor Kozytzskyi: 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the Russian air strike on Yavoriv, western Ukraine on Mar 13th (**Note: Yavoriv is ~25km from Poland-Ukraine border)
(DE) Germany Econ Min Habeck: Germany would stop most Russian oil imports by end-2022, Russian coal imports by fall 2022; It’s hard to halt imports of Russian gas - press interview
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Nearly half (~$300B) of Russia's gold and FX reserves were frozen due to Western sanctions
(CN) China places city of Shenzhen (17.5M of residents, major tech hub, 4th world's largest container port) into a lockdown to last until Mar 20 - press
*(RU) According to US officials, Russia had asked China for military equipment and other assistance since the start of Ukraine's invasion; Reportedly there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry - FT
(US) White House National Sec Adviser Sullivan to meet China’s top foreign policy official Yang Jiechi in Rome, Italy on Monday, Mar 14th - press
TSLA CEO Musk: Tesla and SpaceX seeing significant inflation pressure; Inflation pressure being seen in Logistics and materials
2354.TW Suspends production in Shenzhen; resumption of business depends on Govt approval; attempting to mitigate the effects of the lockdown by reassigning production to other sites - press
MON 3/14
VOW3.DE Exec: suspended production at plants in China's city Changchun from Mar 14th to Mar 17th due to COVID-19 outbreaks
(RU) Ukraine Presidential adviser: To discuss peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees during next round of talks with Russia; Ukraine's position is unchanged
(IN) India said to be considering to accept Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via an Indian rupee-Russian ruble (INR-RUB) transaction - press
(UK) Omicron sub-variant 'Deltacron' BA.2 variant said to be almost as infectious as measles (one of the most contagious diseases in human history) - UK press
(IL) Israel Foreign Min Lapid: Israel won't be used as a means to bypass the sanctions on Russia - press
Reportedly Chinese tycoon nearing loan to backstop short Nickel trade - press
(RU) Russia Pres Putin signs law on registering rights to foreign planes being leased by Russian companies - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: All the plans of Russia in Ukraine will be fulfilled in full and the time frames outlined; Russia did not request China military aid for operation
(EU) EU to place new sanctions on Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft to block their investments in fossil fuels but new rules still allow EU to buy oil from Russian oil companies - press
(RU) Russia may suspend grain exports until June 30th - Russian press
(US) Small but growing number of Californians reportedly going 'off the grid' amid wildfires and higher electricity bills - NYT
(US) Sen Manchin (D-WV): Unable to support nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to Federal Reserve
(US) Treasury Dep Sec: US options still on the table for Russia include a full trade embargo, blocking access to international waterways, prohibitions on nickel, uranium, titanium, and crypto - CNBC
(US) US nears agreement to allow Venezuelan oil-for-debt swaps by Chevron, ENI, Repsol, with further action by Venezuela; New license would allow Chevron a 'more active role' in Venezuela - press
LME Statement: Nickel contracts to resume trading on March 16th at 02:00 EST (06:00AM GMT); To impose 15% limit on daily price moves across all metals
(CN) China confirms total 3,602 coronavirus cases v 1,437 prior
(RU) Estonia said to be the first NATO member nation to have a body formally call for the implementation of a no-fly zone amid Russia’s war on Ukraine
TSLA Said to have increased prices for certain China made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by up to CNY20K in China; Increases prices of 'all' models in US, second increase in 1-week - press
TUES 3/15
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor Arestovich: Think an agreement between Russia and Ukraine can be concluded within one to two weeks, in other case in early May when Russia runs out of resources
GAZP.RU Reportedly Russia's Yamal-Europe gas pipeline suspends flows - press
(IR) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: An agreement of revival of Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is on the finishing path; Received written assurances from US that sanctions will not hinder cooperation within framework of nuclear deal
*(DE) GERMANY MAR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -21.4 V -22.5E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: -39.3 V +5.0E
ECL Announces a temporary global 8%-12% energy surcharge; Effective Apr 1st, 2022; Took a wide range of productivity actions to improve our efficiency and reduce its costs to help offset the strong inflationary challenges and subsequent pricing
MAERSKB.DK CEO: Maersk is no longer buying Russian shipping fuel; Expects to finish last bookings to Russia by end-Apr 2022
*(US) MAR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -11.8 V +6.1E (moves back into negative readings and lowest reading since May 2020)
*(US) FEB PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.8% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 10.0% V 10.0%E
(CN) Saudi Arabia said to be in talks to price oil sales to China in CNY currency (Yuan) - press
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.9% v +5.1% prior
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Kyiv is not serious about finding a mutually acceptable solution
WEDS 3/16
*(CN) China Vice Premier Liu He: Promises to keep equity markets stable; Will continue to support overseas share listings - Xinhua
(SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Rate hike to come sooner than 2024; inflation is far too high at this time and likely to gap further
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor: Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in several operational areas, radically changing situation
EQNR.NO Announces new measures to maintain high gas exports to Europe; Increased production permits allow the high gas production from the Troll, Oseberg and Heidrun fields to be maintained through the summer months
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Peace talks with Ukraine are not easy, but there are certain hope for compromise; Some formulation of agreements with Ukraine are close to being agreed
(RU) Russian delegation member: negotiations with Ukraine are difficult and slow, but Russia wants peace as soon as possible
(UK) US and UK said to launch bilateral trade and investment dialogues next week - US financial press
(DE) German Bundesbank Gov Nagel (hawk): Does not expect stagflation nor see any wage-price spiral - financial press
(US) US said to be considering to provide Ukraine with guided missiles, including drones such as AeroVironment's Switchblades - press
JBL Reports Q2 $1.67 v $1.47e, Rev $7.55B v $7.41Be; Guides Q3 and initial FY22 strong
SBUX CEO Keven Johnson to step down; Founder and former CEO Shultz to serve as interim CEO; effective April 4th - ahead of Annual Meeting
*(US) FEB ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.2% V 0.9%E
*(US) MAR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 79 V 81E
(JP) Earthquake reported off coast of Japan near Fukushima; Earthquake said to shake buildings in Tokyo - press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 0.5%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 12th: 496K total units, -4.7% y/y
NFLX To pilot program that would force subscribers who share account outside their households to pay more; Will be initially tested in Central and South America - Variety
(US) Pres Biden: New assistance to Ukraine will include armed drones
*(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE 25 BPS TO 0.25-0.50% (AS EXPECTED) (1st rate hike since Dec 2018); TO BEGIN CUTTING HOLDINGS OF TREASURY SECURITIES AND AGENCY DEBT AND AGENCY MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES AT A 'COMING MEETING'
STLD Guides Q1 $5.85-5.89 (ex-item) v $5.27e
THURS 3/17
(CN) China plans to establish red light/green light audit system for US listed Chinese companies to open up financial information - FT
TM Cuts Apr global production 17% to 750K units (prior guided average global production for Ar-June at 800K); Notes number of vehicles impacted by Japan's earthquake in uncertain
JPMorgan analysts raise forecast for Q3 2022 Brent oil price to $120/bbl (prior $100/bbl)
*(TW) TAIWAN CENTRAL BANK (CBC) RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE BY 25BPS to 1.375% (NOT EXPECTED)
(RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Eurobond coupon payment was made to correspondent bank
(RU) Moldova President Sandu: Calling for complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from Transnistria
(UR) China's ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong: China would never attack Ukraine; China will help, especially economically - Ukrainian press
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.9% (record high) V 5.8%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reports of major progress in talks is wrong; Elements or progress are correct
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor: Ukraine's position is unchanged that Ukraine's borders as of 1991 must be recognized
(EU) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist): Calibration of net purchases in Q3 to be data dependent
(CN) China reportedly studies virus control measures; Vows more effective measures on COVID-19 control - China TV
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) RAISES BANK RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED; Says further rate rises might be needed in coming months
*(UK) BOE MAR MINUTES: VOTED 8-1 TO RAISE INTEREST RATES (Cunliffe sought for steady policy)
NUE Adjusts Q1 $7.20-7.30 v $7.46e (prior Net slightly reduced q/q)
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Not ruling out possible two hikes in 2022; To depend on incoming inflation data
(US) Pres Biden to hold call with China Pres Xi on Mar 18th to discuss Russia-Ukraine war and managing competition - press
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 1.67M V 1.700ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.86M V 1.850ME
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 214K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.42M V 1.48ME
*(US) MAR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 27.4 V 14.8E (highest reading since Nov 2021)
Credit Suisse Raises China Equities to Overweight
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E
(CN) China market regulator: Will focus on boosting market expectations and confidence; Will help to unblock domestic circulation
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Pres Zelensky and Pres Putin could meet in the coming weeks, but only after the completion of work on ceasefire agreement - Russian press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.2%
FDX Reports Q3 $4.59 v $4.69e, Rev $23.6B v $23.6Be
(CN) Shenzhen reopens 5 districts that achieved 'Zero Covid' goals, resuming factory production and subways in those districts
MRNA Said to have asked the US FDA to authorize a second booster for adults - press
FRI 3/18
(UR) Blasts said to have been heard in Lviv [largest city in Western Ukraine] - Ukraine media
(RU) Russia said to have set up a no fly over Donbass separatists region in Ukraine - Russia press
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Domestic economy picking up as a trend; reiterates stance that appropriate to continue with easing - post rate decision press conference
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor Zhovkva: Ukraine-Russia talks are progressing only slowly; Ukraine needs hard security guarantees in deal; Will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Concern that if Euro exchange rate weakens too much it aggravates our problems with the high energy inflation in the very short term - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Russian delegation to Ukraine peace talks has expressed readiness to work much faster than now
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) LEAVES KEY ONE-WEEK KEY AUCTION RATE UNCHANGED AT 20.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) FED'S BULLARD (VOTER, HAWK; DISSENTER): FOMC SHOULD HAVE IMPLEMENTED BALANCE SHEET PLAN AND RAISED RATES BY 50 BPS - STATEMENT
(UR) Turkey Presidential spokesperson Kalin: Russian Pres Putin wanted Ukraine to complete a disarmament process, protect the Russian language in the country and engage in a "de-Nazi" operation - BBC interview
(US) Fed's Waller (Hawk, Voter): Data is screaming at us to go 50bps increase but geopolitical events call for caution; Favors front-loading rate hikes; Would favor 50bps hikes at 'one or multiple meetings' in the near future - CNBC
*(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.02M V 6.10ME
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina: Raised rates last month to withstand the risks to financial stability; Russia banking system and payments infrastructure is working flawlessly

Saturday, March 12, 2022

War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

2022-03-11T16:05:56.583

Trading this week commenced with the Russia’s Ukraine invasion holding a firm grip on markets. Oil prices spiked, to perhaps a crescendo, around the Biden announcement that the US would ban all Russian energy from US markets. Crude broke out to levels not seen since 2014, but prices did roll over in the wake of the Administration’s unilateral announcement and news of additional coordinated SPR releases. As oil prices attempted to stabilize, investors risk appetite improved, putting a floor under global equity markets. Gold prices backed off, the dollar softened and US Treasury yields moved up amid some unwinding or recent safe haven bets. Russian attacks continued across eastern Ukraine while the rhetoric and propaganda remained intense, but sentiment seemed to marginally improve leading into Thursday’s meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers. That meeting offered little in terms of concrete progress towards a ceasefire, but both sides did acknowledge they broached the subject of a future Putin-Zelenskiy meeting. Uncertainty remained extremely high heading into the weekend despite a somewhat softer tone from President Putin who noted there had been certain “positive shifts” in the Ukraine talks. Western officials remained under no illusions though, emphasizing Putin has shown no signs of engaging in serious diplomacy, while planning for additional sanctions against Russia.

Thursday’s trade also saw EU yields rise after the ECB indicated it will halt asset purchases in Q3 despite the ongoing uncertainty around Ukraine, while also affirming it will hike the key rate sometime after that. The ECB also raised its CPI outlook while cutting GDP forecasts in the latest staff projections. US February CPI data largely met market expectations, but some noted the composition was less than encouraging citing rent pressures, in particular. Friday’s March preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading plumbed to more than a decade low while the 1-year inflation expectation, at 5.4%, touched the highest reading since 1981. This week’s developments seemed to only fan fears around a growing narrative that the global economy is careening towards a difficult period of stagflation. For the week, the S&P lost 2.9%, the DJIA was off 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

In corporate news this week, Amazon announced a 20-for-1 stock split in a move that could pave the way for the tech giant to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Oracle earnings came in below expectations, though the company reported progress on its shift to the cloud software market, despite still lagging sector leaders Amazon and Microsoft. Uber gave some upbeat guidance this week, noting its mobility businesses is bouncing back from the effects of Omicron much faster than it had anticipated. DocuSign shares plunged to erase any COVID-era gains after forecasting below consensus for 2023 amid decelerating subscription revenue growth. Didi Global’s ADR sunk 15% after reports late in the week that its planned Hong Kong stock listing had been halted.

Major US companies such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, and American Express joined the throng of firms pausing their operations within Russia. Goldman Sachs said it would be the first Wall Street firm to do the same, and JPMorgan followed suit later in the week. Google announced it would acquire cybersecurity firm Mandiant (formerly FireEye) for $5B and would incorporate the company into its Cloud division. Rival North Dakota shale drillers Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum said they would merge in a cash-and-stock transaction creating a $6B entity.


SUN 3/6
(RU) Banks in Russia are rapidly trying to move to Chinese UnionPay card operator's system and its own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard suspended operations - press
(US) US said to be in talks with Venezuela on possible easing of oil sanctions, the two countries are said to not be close to any deal - press
(RU) Russia President Putin issued decree to allow companies to use Rubles (RUB) to pay foreign creditors [relates to debt payments to creditors in countries that engage in hostile activities against Russia]; Russia Central Bank to also ease reporting requirements for domestic lenders, commercial banks will no longer have to publish their monthly accounts on their websites - US financial press
*(CN) CHINA JAN-FEB TRADE BALANCE: $115.9B V $95.0BE
*(US) US SAID TO BE CONSIDERING ACTING WITHOUT ALLIES ON BAN OF OIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA, no decision has been made as of yet - US financial press
MON 3/7
(RU) Russia Military to hold cease fire and open humanitarian corridors in several Ukraine cities [Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy] at 10:00 Moscow time - Russian press
(CN) China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Taiwan to eventually return to embrace of motherland; Russia-China cooperation is good for world peace and stability
TTF European benchmark Dutch front-month gas futures move above €310/MWh (record high) amid gas supply concerns and oil price rise
(CN) China FX regulator reportedly surveyed banks about their ties with Russia - financial press
(RU) Reportedly Russia is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukrainian cities - US financial press
(EU) Daily 3-month Euribor Fixing: -0.498% v -0.520% prior (above ECB deposit rate and highest since Sept 2020)
BA Said to have suspended purchasing Russian titanium; Reportedly has sufficient supply for airplane production due to supplier diversity and inventory - US financial press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates stance to finish demilitarization of Ukraine, and secure two breakaway regions*; Military action will stop once conditions are met
UBER Raises Q1 Adj EBITDA $130-150M (prior $100-130M); Mobility business is bouncing back from Omicron "much faster than we expected"
(RU) Russian Ministry of Digital Development refutes rumors about plans to disconnect Russia from the global internet - Russian press
WLL Confirms to be acquired by Oasis Petroleum in cash and stock transaction, combined Co valued at EV ~$6.0B
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov said to meet Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba on Thursday, Mar 10th in Turkey - press
AXP Suspends operations in Russia and Belarus
(RU) Ernst & Young said to announce plans to leave Russia as soon as today (to follow KPMG and PwC) - UK press
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Third round of talks with Russia has finished, There are small positive developments in improving the logistics of humanitarian corridors
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: Europe is pushing us towards an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 but we are not taking this decision yet; No one would benefit from that embargo
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: $6.8B V $24.5BE
(UR) Ukraine reportedly received 5,000 AT4* anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets and 5,000 bullet-proof vests from Sweden - press
TUES 3/8
ORA.FR Orange and MASMOVIL confirm exclusive discussions to combine their operations in Spain; Potential deal valued at up to €19.6B
(EU) EU said to consider joint bond issuance to help fund energy and defense to cope with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - financial press
Goldman Sachs analysts raise forecast for 2022 Brent spot price from $98/bbl to $135/bbl
(UK) London Metal Exchange said to have suspended trading in nickel after price for three-month contract rose about 100% in less than 48 hours - press
(IT) Italy Energy Transition Min: Italy aims to become independent from Russian gas imports within 24-30 months
SHEL.UK To withdraw from Russian oil and gas; Will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil, effective immediately; Will shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia, effective as fast as possible
(CN) China President Xi: Sanctions over Russia to hurt global economy; Ukraine situation is "worrying"; China willing to coordinate with Europe on Ukraine
(EU) Reportedly Russian gas flows through Ukraine to Slovakia decreased sharply - press
VOW3.DE Said to temporarily halt orders for hybrid models citing chip shortage and Ukraine war
- German press
MNDT Confirms to be acquired by Google for $23.00/shr in $5.4B all-cash deal
DKS Reports Q4 $3.64 v $3.54e, Rev $3.35B v $3.30Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 11.4% to $0.4875 from $0.4375 (indicated yield 1.96%)
*(US) US PRESIDENT BIDEN SET TO BAN RUSSIAN OIL, LNG AND COAL AS SOON AS TODAY, MAR 8TH - PRESS
VOW3.DE CEO said to warn that economic damage from war risks being worse than pandemic; Europe faced threat of higher inflation from prolonged conflict in Ukraine - press
(UK) UK reportedly will move toward ban on Russian oil with phased-in approach over months to let markets adjust - UK Politico
(US) President Biden: Confirms ban on imports of Russian Oil, Gas and Energy, understands many allies may not be able to join US
(UK) BBC spokesperson: Will resume English-language reporting from within Russia beginning this evening
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy said to have 'cooled down' regarding question of Ukraine joining NATO - financial press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 0.0%
MCD To temporarily close all of its 847 stores in Russia due to Ukraine invasion
(RU) President Putin signs decree on 'special economic measures' restricting imports and exports 'to protect Russia's security'; To include 'a ban on the export of products and raw materials' the list of which to be determined by Russian govt by Dec 31st - Russia press
(PL) Poland Foreign Min: Prepared to transfer all MiG-29 warplanes to US air base at Ramstein. Germany
(UK) London Metal Exchange: Does not consider it appropriate to announce trading resumption date for nickel given continued uncertainties in the market; Doesn't see restarting nickel trading before Mar 11th
PEP Reportedly exploring options for Russian assets, including writing off business in Russia entirely - press
SBUX To pause all business activity in Russia
KO Suspends its business in Russia; To continue to monitor and assess the situation as circumstances evolve
(US) Commerce Sec Raimondo: Any Chinese companies that aid Russia could be shut down; US could essentially shut down semiconductor -manufacturing international corp or any Chinese companies that defy US sanctions - NYT
XPO To create two standalone, publicly traded companies in LTL and tech-enabled brokered transportation; To divest European operations; affirms all guidance
(RU) Russia Central Bank to limit foreign exchange cash withdrawals from individuals FX accounts until Sept 2022 - press
(RU) US President Biden tweets: This much is already clear: Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin. Putin may be able to take a city, but he will never be able to hold the country
WED 3/9
ADS.DE Reports FY21 €1.05 v €0.77 y/y, Op €66M v €105Me, Rev €5.14B v €5.24Be; Raises FY21 dividend 10% to €3.30/shr
(UR) Ukraine govt bans exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt and meat - financial press
*IEA TO RELEASE 62.7M BARRELS (45.7M OF CRUDE OIL AND 16.9MBBL OF OIL PRODUCTS) - PRESS
TM Exec: To lower production plan for Apr-Jun quarter
(RU) Russia Foreign Ministry: Ukraine operation going strictly in line with plan; It is better for Russian goals in Ukraine to be achieved through talks
(EU) EU Presidency office (held by France): Member States have agreed to new sanctions against Russian leaders and oligarchs
(RU) Russia Gov Spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates govt interested in continuing talks with Ukraine; US has declared economic war on Russia; Country may rethink its energy commitments after sanctions
(RU) Russia PM Mishustin: Russia to approve trade ban details in near future; Russian govt will shortly define list of goods subject to import and export bans, no details yet
ZIM Reports Q4 $14.17 v $3.49 y/y, Rev $3.47B v $3.44Be; Declares FY21 dividend $17.00/shr
AMZN Reportedly House Judiciary Committee asking DOJ to commence criminal probe of Amazon over Amazon's use of seller data and illegal obstruction of Congress - US financial press
(UR) Kyiv mayor Klichko: If Russians encircle Kyiv, we have resources for a week
PM Suspends investment and activates plans to scale down manufacturing ops in Russia (~10% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume and ~6% of total net revenues)
*(US) JAN JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 11.263M V 10.950ME
(US) Atlanta Fed's Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate at +0.21 v -0.20 in Jan (first positive reading since Oct 2020)
(RU) Russia Defense Ministry: Admits participation of conscript soldiers in Ukraine operation; Exhaustive measures are being taken to prevent conscript soldiers from being sent to combat areas
(RU) Russia Feb CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.2%e
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 5th: 505K total units, -1.9% y/y
(KR) Conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol projected to win South Korea presidential election - Korean press
(RU) Russia negotiator Slutsky: Delegation at peace talks with Ukraine will Not concede anything, not a single negotiating point
AMZN Approves a 20-for-1 split of the Company’s common stock, effective June 6th; Authorizes $10B buyback (1% of market cap) - filing
UAE Energy Minister: UAE is committed to the OPEC+ agreement and its existing monthly production adjustment mechanism
THURS 3/10
(UK) Conservative MP Heappey: NATO could intervene in Ukraine if Russia uses chemical weapons - press
*(RU) RUSSIA GOV SPOKESPERSON PESKOV: MEETING OF FOREIGN MINS IN TURKEY MAY OPEN WAY FOR TALKS BETWEEN PUTIN AND ZELENSKIY; awaiting outcome of talks between Lavrov and Kuleba
(CN) China said to have widened the trading band between the CNY currency (Yuan) and RUB currency (Ruble) from 5% to 10% - press
(UK) UK adds Russian oligarch and former Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich to sanction list and asset freeze list - press
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: No progress on ceasefire; Russia conveyed impression to continue its attack until demands met - comments after meeting Russian Foreign Min Lavrov
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Possible Putin-Zelenskiy summit was discussed; Mainly spoke about humanitarian corridors with Ukraine; Want serious talks with Ukraine in Belarus
RUALR.RU Rio Tinto said to halt shipments to Rusal's Alumina refinery in Ireland; Looking to stop bauxite shipments to key Rusal plant - press
DBK.DE Targets FY25 Post-tax ROTE >10%, Rev +3.5-4.5% CAGR through FY25 reaching €30B by FY25
(RU) Russia Economy Ministry to ban some forestry exports to 'unfriendly' States until end-2022- Russian press
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(EU) ECB AMENDS ITS BOND BUYING PLAN; Brings forward planned conclusion of APP bond buying program (Conventional QE) to Q3 if the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 217KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.494M V 1.45ME
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.9%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Had very intense discussion on economic situation; Had different views on issues - Q&A
GS Plans to close ops in Russia, the first Wall Street bank to do so - press
V Reports Feb US Spending Momentum Index at 109.33, +6.8% m/m
(EU) Reportedly only a few ECB policymakers favored keeping APP open-ended at today's meeting; Agreed that 1.9% inflation expected in 2024 is at target - press
(UK) London Metal Exchange reportedly to keep nickel market shut until at least next week - press
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: If FX reserves frozen, Russia to repay debt in Rubles
*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.375% V 2.075% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.46 V 2.35 PRIOR AND 2.33 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(RU) Russia Pres Putin endorses proposal to allow govt to request court order to impose external management on facilities and factories that departing companies leave behind - press
London Metal Exchange confirms nickel market will not reopen tomorrow
JPM To actively unwind Russia business; Has not been pursuing any new business in Russia - press
ORCL Reports Q3 $1.13 v $1.17e, Rev $10.5B v $10.5Be
DOCU Reports Q4 $0.48 v $0.48e, Rev $580.8M v $561Me; Guides FY23 Rev light; Authorizes $200M stock buyback (1% of market cap)
OPFI Reports Q4 $0.13 v $0.13e, Adj Rev $96.0M v $98.4Me
(CN) China regulator says confident can resolve audit issues related to US-listed Chinese cos. - financial press
(CN) China reports 1.1K coronavirus cases, highest amount in ~2-years
(CN) China Premier Li: Hitting 5.5% GDP target will not be easy; Low rate of inflation in China shows right policies are being used; China lowered the deficit rate and macro leveraging ratio in 2021
(RU) Russia said to be looking into ways to resume stock trading next week - Press
FRI 3/11
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL CPI M/M: 0.9% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.1%E
(RU) Russian Defense Min Shoigu said to have told Russian Pres Putin about 16,000 'volunteers' from the Middle East who want to fight in Ukraine; Putin ordered to help them get into the war zone - Russian press
(IR) EU's Foreign Policy Chief Borrell: A pause in Vienna nuclear talks is needed due to external factors
(CN) China President Xi reportedly considers to tap He Lifeng as China's next Vice Premier to have broad control over economic, financial and industrial policy - US financial press
*(RU) RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN: THERE ARE CERTAIN POSITIVE SHIFTS IN TALKS WITH UKRAINE WHICH TAKE PLACE ALMOST DAILY - COMMENTS FROM MEETING BELARUS PRES LUKASHENKO
BLK Said to be hit by $17B of losses on Russian exposure - FT
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Have reached a strategic turning point in war; Time and patience is still needed to achieve victory
(CN) China said to stick to current exiting 'zero tolerance' policy to COVID - press
(UR) Ukraine presidential adviser: No new Russian advances during last 24 hours
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +336.6K V +127.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.5% V 6.2%E
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 59.7 V 61.0E (lowest since 2011)
(US) Pres Biden: Confirms US and allies will revoke Russia's Most Favored Nation trade status
(RU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: will present 4th package of measures against Russia tomorrow, on Mar 12th
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: Repeats no progress was made during yesterday's talks with Lavrov
(US) Pres Biden: Ending normal trade is a 'crushing blow' to Russia
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 663 v 650 w/w (+2% w/w)

Sunday, February 27, 2022

Markets convulse then reverse after Russia invades Ukraine

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets convulse then reverse after Russia invades Ukraine

2022-02-25T16:12:21.88

As predicted by President Biden and other Western leaders, Russia did commence a large scale military offensive into the Ukraine this week. As the markets woke up to this reality, Thursday saw the NASDQ officially open in bear market territory as investors rushed for safety, pushing down stocks and lifting the prices of oil, gold, and government bonds. Brent crude broke above $100 for the first time since 2014, while the Ruble and the Russian stock market came under considerable pressure.

Central bankers said they will monitor the impacts of the Russian invasion, particularly on energy markets and inflation. But hawks like the Fed’s Bullard continued to express the need to start normalizing policy given that sanctions on Russia will not have a great deal of direct impact on Western economies. Stock markets saw wild volatility, with a 1,000 DJIA swing on Thursday and European bourses on Friday posting their best gains in months, as trader bet on a short term bottom. For the week the S&P gained 0.8%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%.



In corporate news this week, Home Depot posted a beat on its top and bottom line but shares dipped amid declining margins and signs the pandemic boom is moderating. Macy’s notched strong EPS and Rev for its holiday quarter though, like most retailers, continued to face headwinds from inflation and a labor market. Automotive components original equipment manufacturer Tenneco agreed to be acquired by Apollo for $7.1B, a nearly 100% premium. Volkswagen said it was in late-stage talks regarding a potential spinoff of its Porsche unit in order to raise cash as it transitions to electric vehicles. Soo Kim’s Standard General announced it would acquire broadcaster Tegna for $5.4B, ending a takeover saga that had lasted many years and involved several potential suiters.



SUN 2/20
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: LEAVES BOTH 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR RATES
(RU) US Biden Plan would cut correspondent banking relationships between US and Russia banks as part of initial sanctions package - Press
MON 2/21
(DE) Germany Jan PPI M/M: 2.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 25.0% v 24.4%e (highest since 1949)
*(FR) FRANCE FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.6 V 55.5E (15th month of expansion and highest reading since July 2021)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI 58.5 V 59.8E (20th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.4 V 58.7E (20th month of expansion)
*(UK) FEB PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.3 V 57.0E (21st straight expansion)
(RU) Donetsk separatists reportedly claim they need military and financial aid from Russia - Russian press
(RU) Russia Army (Southerm Military District) said to have prevented border violation from Ukraine; says 5 Ukraine soldiers killed in situation
(RU) Donbas separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine said to have asked Russia to recognize independence - Russian tv
(RU) President Putin: Ukraine does not plan to fulfill the Minsk agreements; To discuss Donbas situation and should discuss separatist recognition - comments attributed to Russia's security council extra-ordinary meeting
(RU) Russia President Putin: Eastern Ukraine territories are ancient Russian lands; Ukraine has become US colony with a puppet government - national tv address
(EU) ECB's Villeroy (France): No need to decide rate-hike dates now; Reiterates call to end APP purchases (conventional QE) around Q3 2022
*(RU) RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN FORMALLY ORDERS TO RECOGNIZE DONBAS LPR AND DPR SEPARATISTS - NATIONAL TV ADDRESS; Putin also ordered troops from Russia to enter the two breakaway regions of Ukraine [Donetsk and Luhansk]
XOM Workers at Beaumont (Texas) refinery have ratified contract offer; the move paves the way to ending the 10-month lockout - US financial press
MPC Louisiana refinery [578K bpd] had an explosion and fire; the cause of the incident has not yet been disclosed; officials have given the all-clear sign related to the refinery - US press
5.HK Reports FY21 Adj pretax $21.9B v $12.1B y/y, Adj Rev $50.09B v $50.4B y/y; to buyback $1.0B in shares
TUES 2/22
(RU) Reportedly Russia may recognize Ukranian Separatist claims over more land than already recognized - press
VOW3.DE Notes it is in advanced discussions with Porsche Automobil Holding SE regarding a potential IPO of Porsche AG
*(DE) GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 98.9 V 96.5E (2nd straight improvement)
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Ukraine does not have a right to sovereignty
(RU) Russia Deputy Foreign Min Andrey Rudenko: Russia recognized the separatists within the border they perform their duties and jurisdiction in
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Russia's decision is serious breach of international law; No certification of Nord Stream 2 can occur at this time - statement on Russia-Ukraine situation
HD Reports Q4 $3.21 v $3.20e, Rev $35.7B v $34.6Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 15.2% to $1.90 from $1.65 (indicated yield 2.19%)
M Reports Q4 $2.45 v $2.00e, Rev $8.66B v $8.45Be; Completes business review and will NOT separate digital assets; New $2B share repurchase program authorized; Raises Quarterly dividend 5% to $0.1575 from $0.15 (indicated yield 2.45%);
TGNA Confirms to be acquired by Standard General L.P. for $24.00/shr in $5.4B cash deal
EXPD Reports Q4 $2.66 v $2.02e, Rev $5.40B v $4.26Be
(US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index: +15.9 v -16.2 prior
*(US) FEB PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.5 V 56.0E
*(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 1 V 10E
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 110.5 V 110.0E
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: A full invasion of Ukraine must be prevented; We are in a position to decide on further sanctions if there will actually be a complete military invasion of Ukraine by Russia
PANW Reports Q2 $1.74 v $1.65e, Rev $1.32B v $1.28Be
(US) Sec of State Blinken: Cancels meeting with Russia's Lavrov following invasion of Ukraine
*(NZ) RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) BY 25BPS TO 1.00%; AS EXPECTED
992.HK Reports Q3 Net $640M v $395M y/y, Rev $20.1B v $17.3B y/y
WEDS 2/23
(AT) ECB’s Holzmann (Austria): It is possible for ECB to hike rates before ending conventional QE program; Council should consider two rate hikes in 2022
BN.FR Reports FY21 Net €1.92B v €1.96B y/y, Recurring Op €3.34B v €3.32B y/y, Rev €24.3B v €23.6B y/y; Local First implementation on track; Europe transformation completed
STLA Reports FY21 Net €13.4B v €4.79B y/y, Adj EBIT €18.0B v €9.22B y/y; Rev €152.1B v €47.7B y/y
(RU) TTN Research alert: on Feb 27th, Belarus will hold a constitutional referendum that includes a vote on end of 'nuclear-free status' to make it legal to host Russian nuclear weapons
MUV2.DE CEO: Nord Stream 2 pipeline insurance contract has been canceled - conf call comments
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.1%E (record high); CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E
TEN To be acquired by Apollo Funds for $20.00/shr in cash valued at $7.1B
(UR) US officials reportedly have given intel to Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy that indicates Russia is preparing to conduct a full-scale invasion within 48 hours - Newsweek
(ES) ECB’s de Cos (Spain): Inflation spike is largely unexpected and lasting longer than expected
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 19th: 497.8K total units, +32% y/y
(UR) US Sec of State Blinken: Believes Russia will invade Ukraine before night ends - NBC News
*(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE AT 1.25%; AS EXPECTED
BRENT OIL PRICE MOVES ABOVE $100/BARREL (1st time since 2014)
(RU) US officials: Sanctions will shock Russian financial system, hit the markets and hobble industry and weigh on growth - US financial press
THRS 2/24
ABI.BE Reports Q4 $0.74 v $0.84e, adj EBITDA $4.88B v $4.80Be, Rev $14.2B v $13.7Be
(CN) China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying: Russian forces in Ukraine is not an invasion as described by some foreign media
(RU) Reportedly UK PM Johnson is pushing for Russia to be removed from the SWIFT payment system – press
(RU) RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN: WHAT IS HAPPENING IS FORCED MEASURE; WEST REFUSED TO GIVE GROUND ON RUSSIA'S SECURITY DEMANDS - comments after meeting with Russian businessmen
(UK) UK to freeze VTB Bank assets, immediately; To impose sanctions on over 100 Russian individuals and entities; Confirms calling on expulsion from SWIFT payment system
(UR) Pres Biden tweets: G7 leaders agreed to move forward with devastating sanctions packages against Russia
(RU) Pres Biden: Russian military began brutal attack; Pres Putin is a the aggressor, rejected diplomacy - press conf on Ukraine-Russia conflict
(EU) European leaders to impose sanctions on Russian financial sectors, visa policy, energy, transport and impose export controls - statement
COIN Reports Q4 $3.32 v $1.95e, Rev $2.49B v $1.81Be
DELL Reports Q4 $1.72 v $1.95e, Rev $28.0B v $27.4Be; Declares initial quarterly div $0.33/shr, expects FY23 Dividends of ~$1.0B
FRI 2/25
BAS.DE Reports Q4 Net €898M v €1.06B y/y, adj EBIT €1.23B v €1.4Be, Rev €19.8B v €18.5Be
(RU) Russia govt said to be preparing its own sanctions list to hit back at the West - press
(UR) Adviser to Ukraine President Podolyak: If Moscow says they are ready to talk, including on neutral status, we are not afraid of this; We want peace
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Ukraine neutrality move is move 'toward positive'; Expectations of Kyiv remain the same; Russia does not change its position like a girlECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist) said to see ECB Staff Projection to significant raise the 2022 inflation outlook but would still see it below the ECB target in the medium term - press
(UR) UKRAINE PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY CALLS FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN - PRESS
ABC AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson approve Opioid settlement agreement; Settlement will provide thousands of communities across US with up to ~$19.5B over 18 years
(RU) Russia President Putin said to be willing to conduct high-level negotiations with Ukraine - Chinese press
(EU) EU said to be planning to sanction personally Russia Pres Putin and Russia Foreign Min Lavrov; To freeze their assets - FT
(US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.0%E
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $1.08B, +41.6% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $567.2M, +76.4% y/y
(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -5.7% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -9.1% V -1.8%E
(RU) German Finance Minister: We are open to cutting Russia off SWIFT

Sunday, February 20, 2022

Specter of Russian invasion continues to loom over markets

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Specter of Russian invasion continues to loom over markets

2022-02-18T16:16:06.24

Trading this week was mired by headlines surrounding a mounting crisis on the Ukraine border. Risk appetite swung from on to off on several occasions depending on what was being reported. Sentiment would improve when both sides would allude to further diplomacy, only to about-face when Western leaders would repeat an invasion was still likely imminent, while separate Russian press reports of flare ups in Eastern Ukraine were viewed by Western officials as a potential pretext for Russian action. The US Secretary of State and Russian Foreign Minister agreed to meet late next week, but the situation remained tenuous heading into a weekend where both the Olympics and joint Russian/Belarus military drills are set to come to a close. Early in the week the price of crude oil surged on worries that war between Ukraine and Russia could prolong elevated inflation in developed economies by disrupting supplies of important commodities. Late in the week oil prices backed off on growing speculation that Iran and Western powers are nearing a nuclear accord that could bring Iranian barrels back onto the market.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes reminded investors that officials at their January meeting discussed an accelerated timetable for raising interest rates amid greater discomfort with high inflation. Regardless investors appeared to lean dovish by default because the minutes did little to communicate the minority argument for a 50bps move that has been presented since the release of January CPI figures. Fed speak also moderated a bit as officials other than Bullard offered a bit more moderate view on frontloading rate hikes, while unanimously signaling they remained on board for a March liftoff. Futures markets saw the odds of a 50 bps hike shrink back below 50% while safe haven flows kept an underlying bid in US Treasury markets. Growth stocks continued to struggle with several high profile swoons seen in highly trafficked technology names after their earnings reports. For the week, the S&P lost 1.6%, the DJIA dropped 1.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%.

In corporate news this week, Deere raised its guidance after a strong Q1 and said it expects demand for farm and construction equipment to continue benefiting from strong fundamentals. Marriott reported above consensus on its top and bottom line, noting new bookings across customer segments have rebounded to pre-Omicron levels. AirBNB posted a beat on earnings and guidance, as the lodging company saw its third consecutive quarter of double-digit booking increases.

Intel agreed to acquire Tower Semiconductor in a $6B deal as the tech giants continues its effort to expand its manufacturing capacity. Monster Beverage and Constellation Brands were said to be near an $85B merger that could dramatically revamp the beverage landscape. PE firm Madison Dearborn said it would buy MoneyGram for $1.8B in all-cash deal. Blackstone announced a €21B recapitalization of its pan-European last mile logistics firm Mileway, with the large majority of capital for the move coming from existing investors. GM said it would resume production of Bolt EV and EUV models at its Orion Township facility in April.


SUN 2/13
JGB (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ): There were no takers in 5-10-year JGB Fixed-Rate buying operation
(CA) Ambassador Bridge has been fully reopened after police clear out protests - press
MON 2/14
(RU) Belarus Pres Lukashenko: Nobody plans to fight Ukraine
(RU) Russia reportedly continues to analyse US and NATO positions on security proposals; To continue a dialogue - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: President Putin to meet his Foreign and Defense Ministers on Monday (Feb 14th)
(US) Fed's George (FOMC voter, hawk): No need for Fed to raise rates outside of scheduled meetings
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Can see a way forward for talks with US and NATO; Will propose continuing our diplomatic work
DFS Reportedly to partner with Buy It Mobility Networks to allow consumers to pay directly from checking accounts without cards - press
TUES 2/15
(CN) China President Xi said to write that China will strengthen its legislation related to national security, to further improve anti-foreign sanction laws
BX Announces €21B recapitalization of pan-European last mile logistics firm Mileway; “Go-shop” process to commence immediately
(RU) Russian forces said to be conducting military drills across almost all military districts and fleets; Some drills said to be concluded - Russian press
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) said to begin testing of the digital ruble; CBR and Finance Ministry failed to reach an agreement on crypto - press
TSEM Confirms to be acquired by Intel for $53/shr in ~$5.4B all-cash deal; Deal expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS
2330.TW Said to increase planned investment in Japanese plant to ~$8.7B (prior $7B) as Denso joined TSMC/Sony project - Nikkei
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.6%E
(DE) GERMANY FEB ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -8.1 V -6.5E V -10.2 PRIOR; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 54.3 V 55.0E
MAR Reports Q4 $1.30 v $1.02e, Rev $4.45B v $3.86Be; Notes new bookings across customer segments have rebounded to pre-Omicron levels
(RU) Russian forces reportedly plan drills with hypersonic missiles in the Mediterranean Sea - Russian press
*(US) FEB EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 3.1 V 12.0E
*(US) JAN PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 1.0% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 9.7% V 9.1%E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +4.2% v +4.1% prior
(US) Trucks reportedly now leave Alberta town and end US-Canada border blockage - press
(EU) ECB's Villeroy (France): Guidance should have a shorter horizon amid uncertainties
(US) Pres Biden: US will be prepared no matter what happens in Ukraine; US remains ready to engage in diplomacy with Russia; Will respond decisively to Russian invasion
ABNB Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.05e, Rev $1.54B v $1.46Be; Impact of Omicron has quickly dissipated
WEDS 2/16
HEIA.NL CEO: I’ve never seen inflation like it, not even close; Across the board we are faced with crazy increases - post earnings comments
*(UK) JAN CPI M/M: -0.1% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.4%E (6th month above target and highest annual pace since Mar 1992)
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Remain committed to Minsk peace agreements as the solution for Donbas; NATO claims that no Russia troop pullback yet are wrong
SHOP Reports Q4 $1.36 v $1.33e, Rev $1.38B v $1.34Be; To consolidate fulfillment network to larger facilitates, to operate more fulfillment centers themselves
(LT) ECB's Kazaks (Latvia, hawk): Interest rate hike is quite likely this year; March meeting is unlikely to offer policy blueprint
GOOGL Reportedly plans to adopt new privacy restrictions to curtail tracking across apps on Android smartphones - US financial press
*(US) JAN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 3.8% V 2.0%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 3.3% V 0.9%E
(US) Sec of State Blinken: We see no evidence of a Russia pullback from Ukraine border; We continue to see units moving towards the border, not away from it
*(US) JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.4% V 0.5%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 77.6% V 76.8%E
DIS Launches new business to develop residential communities called 'Storyliving'
*(US) FEB NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 82 V 82E
(US) Fed’s Harker (voter): Wants 25bps in March hike not 50bps
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 12th: 504.5K total units, +5% y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.5% from 0.7%
(US) TREASURY $19B 20-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 2.396% v 2.065% prior, BID-TO-COVER 2.44 v 2.34 PRIOR AND 2.29 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
NVDA Reports Q4 $1.32 v $1.22e, Rev $7.64B v $7.43Be; Guides Q1 very strong; Expects to announce many new products, applications and partners for NVIDIA computing
(UR) Ukraine forces said to have fired on Luhansk People’s Republic (Russian backed separatists) in several places with mortars, according to the separatists - press
THURS 2/17
AIR.FR Reports FY21 adj Net +€4.21B v -€1.13B y/y, Adj EBIT €4.87B v €1.71B y/y, Rev €52.1B v €49.4B y/y; raises 2021 dividend to €1.50/share v nil y/y
NESN.CH Reports FY21 (CHF) Net 16.9B v 12.3Be, Op 15.1B v 14.9B y/y, Rev 87.1B v 86.9Be; Confirms to buy back CHF10B in shares in 2022
KER.FR Reports FY21 Net €3.18B v €2.15B y/y, EBITDA €6.47B v €4.57B y/y, Rev €17.6B v €13.1B y/y; Sees momentum to continue in 2022
(UR) Ukrainian military official: Russian occupying forces fired on village in Luhansk region; No injuries were caused - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Situation in Donbas region is getting more tense; NATO waging information aggression
WMT Reports Q4 $1.53 v $1.50e, Rev $152.9B v $151.4Be; Announces share buyback of at least $10B in FY23 (2.7% of market cap); Notes navigated higher supply chain costs well
(RU) US envoy to UN Thomas-Greenfield: Evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving towards an 'imminent invasion'; This is a crucial moment
MU Reportedly notified customers that NAND flash chip contract prices to rise 17-18% v 15%e, as spot prices rose 25% - Taiwanese price
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 248K V 218KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.593M V 1.60ME
*(US) JAN HOUSING STARTS: 1.638M V 1.695ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.9M V 1.750ME
*(US) FEB PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 16.0 V 20.0E
(US) Pres Biden: There is reason to believe Russia is involved in false flag operations; Probability of Russian invasion is very high
(US) Pres Biden reportedly to issue executive order on regulating crypto next week - Yahoo Finance
(RU) US said to accept holding talks with Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov late next week [specific day not disclosed] - US financial press
FRI 2/18
ENI.IT Reports Q4 adj Net €2.11B v €1.91Be, adj Op €3.81B v €3.55Be, Rev €26.8B v €11.9B y/y
(RU) Russia to conduct strategic deterrence drills on Sat, Feb 19th; President Putin to monitor - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Breaches of cease-fire arrangement in Donbas is potentially very dangerous
DE Reports Q1 $2.92 v $2.28e, Rev (equipment ops) $8.53B v $8.09Be
OPEC+ reportedly would seek to bring Iran into oil supply agreement bringing 1.3M bpd onto market if nuclear deal is reached - financial press
(RU) Donbas separatists leader Pushilin announces evacuation of Eastern Ukraine residents to Russia; To commence as soon as today
(DE) Germany Foreign Min Baerbock: Germany is ready to pay high economic price for unprecedented sanctions on Russia
(US) JAN EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.50M V 6.10ME
F Said to have previously considered spinning off EV and or traditional business – press
GE Discloses supply chain headwinds may continue to partially mask the company's 'significant progress' across its businesses; May 'pressure' growth, profit and FCF through Q1 and H1 - investor letter
(EU) ECB officials reportedly are 'edging toward' rate hike in 2022 to address inflation – press
(US) Fed's Williams (FOMC voter): Does not see compelling argument for a big first rate increase - Q&A with reporters
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 645 v 635 w/w (+1.6% w/w) (Rises for 8th straight week in a row)

Sunday, February 13, 2022

Surging inflation and imminent threat of Ukraine invasion loom large over markets

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Surging inflation and imminent threat of Ukraine invasion loom large over markets

2022-02-11T16:05:03.913

Investors went on another wild ride this week, but ultimately US stock indices finished modestly below where they started. Trading remained choppy as traders digested another slew of earnings reports around the release of key US inflation data. Even before the CPI print inflation worries percolated, copper, iron ore, timber and coffee prices surged garnering attention. Quarterly earnings conference calls were rife with commentary about the expectation that companies will continue to raise prices through the remainder 2022 to offset rising supply chain costs. Also, a protest by Canadian truckers over vaccine mandates shut down several key bridges on the US/Canada border resulting in significant down time at multiple US automobile OEM facilities. WTI crude hit a fresh 8-year high on Friday spurred by reports that the US government now believes Russian President Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine.

Thursday’s January CPI release spooked markets yet again, after coming in substantially hotter than already-goosed market expectations, reaching the highest annual pace since 1982. The upside surprise in the core index was spread across a wide range of categories, including some that have been heavily influenced by bottlenecks and others where price pressures could be viewed as more likely to stick. Stock markets came under pressure and Treasury yields immediately shot up on the news, led by the 2-year yield which surged 25 basis points, the largest daily gain since 2009. The 10-year yield retook 2% for the first time since 2019, but investors were also quick to fret over the narrowing of spreads or the curve flattening and what it might signal about future growth prospects. Futures markets quickly saw the odds of a 50 basis point March rate hike rise above 50%. By Friday, investment houses were aggressively ratcheting up their Federal Reserve tightening expectations after FOMC voter Bullard called for a 50bps hike in March, while also indicating significant quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction) and perhaps intra-meeting hikes may also be necessary to get inflation under control. For the week, the S&P lost 1.8%, the DJIA was off 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.2%

In corporate news this week, Disney shares rose after reporting strong quarterly results, boosted by robust theme park attendance and higher than anticipated streaming service subscriber growth. Pfizer dropped after issuing a weaker 2022 outlook than expected, and late in the week said it would delay its application to the FDA to expand its Covid vaccine to kids under 5 until April. On the supply chain front, Intel’s CEO said the company expects chip wafer supply to remain tight through 2023, while FMC Corp noted they have seen initial signs of packaging costs easing. Republic Services confirmed plans to buy US Ecology for $2.2B in cash, and Republic added it plans to pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions in the environmental solutions sector.


SUN 2/6
(EU) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands, hawk): Sees first interest rate hike early in Q4 2022, second rate hike would likely be during Q1 2023; tightening typically in 25bps increments, don't see a reason to do something different as of now – financial press
USD/CNH China PBOC yuan fix said to lead to some concerns related to devaluation - financial press
*(CN) CHINA JAN CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 51.4 V 50.5E (lowest since Aug 2021)
(CN) China Industry Ministry (MIIT): China aiming to complete a revamp of >80% of the steel capacity so it complies with ultra low emissions standards by 2025

MON 2/7
(LT) ECB's Kazaks (Latvia, hawk): July hike would imply "extremely" fast tapering
ON Reports Q4 $1.09 v $0.94e, Rev $1.85B v $1.79Be; Guides Q1 strong
(US) NJ Gov Murphy reportedly expected to end mask mandates in schools for students and teachers in 30 days - press
(US) US Dept of Commerce added 33 parties based in China to its unverified list for receiving US exports
(US) US and Japan reportedly reach deal to end Trump administration steel tariffs - press
*(US) DEC CONSUMER CREDIT: $18.9B V $25.0BE
2269.HK Comments on being added to US Unverified List; has no impact on business, in compliance

TUES 2/8
BP.UK Reports Q4 Adj Net $4.07B v $3.87Be, Rev $52.2B v $42.1Be; Announces further $1.5B share buyback
7201.JP Reports 9M Net +¥201.3B v -¥367.7B y/y, Op +¥191.3B v -¥131.6B y/y, Rev ¥6.15T v ¥5.32T y/y
(CN) China state funds said to buy Chinese stocks to slow market decline - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates stance that Russian troops to return to base after Belarus exercise; no precise date set
DD Reports Q4 $1.08 v $1.01e, Rev $4.27B v $3.95Be; Announces $1.0B share buyback; Raises Quarterly dividend 10% to $0.33 from $0.30 (indicated yield 1.75%)
PFE Reports Q4 $1.08 v $0.85e, Rev $23.8B v $23.9Be; Guides FY22 Rev short of expectations
MBUU Reports Q2 $1.50 v $1.36e, Rev $263.9M v $262Me; Demand has shown no sign of waning
FISV Reports Q4 $1.57 v $1.55e, Rev $4.26B v $4.02Be
(CN) China PBOC's official said to have reiterated view that cross-border trading apps remain illegal - press
SYY Reports Q2 $0.57 v $0.69e, Rev $16.3B v $16.0Be
*(US) DEC CPI M/M REVISED TO 0.6% V 0.5% PRIOR - PRESS
GAZP.RU Signs 30-year deal to supply up to 10B cm of additional gas per year to China and will be settled in euros
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 0.7% from 0.1% prior
(DE) Germany Fin Min Lindner: European countries should not 'toy' with the 3% deficit and 60% debt limits as part of EU Stability Pact
MNDT Microsoft reportedly pursuing deal for Mandiant but bid is not assured - press
(US) Atlanta Fed's Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate at -0.20 v -1.15 in Dec
(US) New York state is expected to announce it is removing its mask mandate Wednesday, unclear if it will apply to schools - press
7203.JP Reports 9M Net ¥2.32T v ¥1.47T y/y, Op ¥2.53T v ¥1.51T y/y, Rev ¥23.27T v ¥19.53T y/y; Cuts FY21/22 Global production outlook

WEDS 2/9
7267.JP Reports 9M Net ¥582.2B v ¥444.1B y/y, Op ¥671.7B v ¥447.0B y/y, Rev ¥10.68T v ¥9.55T y/y
GSK.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS 25.6p v 23.8pe, Rev £9.53B v £9.31Be; On track to demerge Consumer Healthcare unit in mid-2022
MAERSKB.DK Reports Q4 adj Net $6.11B v $6.1Be, EBITDA $7.99B v $8.0B prelim, Rev $18.5B v $18.5B prelim; Assumes ocean normalization early in H2
MAERSKB.DK CEO: our data indicates a very strong Q1 and Q2, supported by high volumes and freight rates - post earnings comments
(DE) German VDA Car Association forecasts domestic car market to grow 7% to 2.8M vehicles; Sees chip shortage to carry into 2023
(DE) German Bundesbank Gov Nagel (hawk): Expects domestic 2022 inflation significantly above 4.0%
CVS Reports Q4 $1.98 v $1.94e, Rev $76.6B v $76.0Be
CCJ Reports Q4 C$0.06 v C$0.12 y/y, Rev C$465M v C$550M y/y; Raises Annual dividend 50% to $0.12 from $0.08 (indicated yield 0.6%)
AVYA Reports Q1 $0.42 v $0.69e, Rev $713M v $737Me
(US) NY Gov Hochul expected to announce that she will let the mask mandate expire this week - financial press
(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): I have three rate hikes penciled in this year but leaning towards 4 potentially - CNBC
ECOL Republic Services confirms to acquire US Ecology at $48/shr in cash for $2.2B total
INTC CEO: Expects chip wafer supply to remain tight through 2023
FMC Exec: Have seen initial signs of packaging costs easing - earnings call comments
(US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 5th: 458K total units, -7.6% y/y
(US) White House Press Sec Psaki: Tomorrow's inflation data will show a high y/y increase
(US) Boston Fed names Susan M. Collins to succeed Rosengren as new Bank president - press
DIS Reports Q1 $1.06 v $0.57e, Rev $21.8B v $21.2Be
2282.HK Reports Q4 (HK$) adj EBITDA 89.0M v 367.2M y/y; Rev 2.45B v 2.36B y/y

THURS 2/10
2330.TW Reports Jan (NT$) Rev 172.2B v 126.8B y/y v 155.4B m/m
CSGN.CH Reports Q4 (CHF) Net -2.01B v -353M y/y, Pretax -522M v -88M y/y, Rev 4.58B v 5.2B y/y; 2022 to be a transition year for the company
SIE.DE Reports Q1 €2.05 v €1.57e, Industrial Business Net €2.5B v €2.2B y/y, Rev €16.5B v €15.9Be
TKA.DE Reports Q1 Net €203M v -€93M y/y, adj EBIT €298M v €20M y/y, Rev €9.02B v €7.32B y/y
UNA.NL Reports FY21 EPS €2.62 v €2.48 y/y, adj Op €9.64B v €9.37B y/y, Rev €52.4B v €51B y/y; Announces €3B share buyback
TTE.FR Reports Q4 adj Net $6.83B v $1.30B y/y, Rev $60.4B v $37.9B y/y
*(ID) INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK (BI) LEAVES 7-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%; AS EXPECTED
(RU) Russia said to hold military drills in Black Sea - Russian press
(JP) BOJ to conduct fixed rate purchase operation on Monday, Feb 14th due to rise in recent yield; To purchase unlimited 10-year JGBs - press
PEP Reports Q4 $1.53 v $1.53e, Rev $25.3B v $24.3Be; Authorizes up to $10B share buyback till 2026; Raises annual dividend 7% to $4.60/shr
TWTR Reports Q4 $0.33 v $0.33e, Rev $1.57B v $1.57Be; Authorizes new $4.0B share buyback. including $2B accelerated share repurchase
LCII Reports Q4 $3.22 v $2.79e, Rev $1.21B v $1.13Be; Notes in Jan 2022, production increased significantly to meet elevated RV and marine retail demand
K Reports Q4 $0.83 v $0.79e, Rev $3.42B v $3.40Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 223K V 230KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.621M V 1.62ME
*(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 7.5% V 7.2%E (highest annual pace since early 1982)
(US) 10-year Treasury yield touches 2% for first time since summer of 2019
(US) Fed's Bullard (2022 voter, hawk): Favors 50bps rate increase in March but defers to Powell on that; Should be open to inter-meeting increase; Favors 100bps increases by July 1st (Would be first 50bps rise since 2000)
*(US) JAN MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: $118.7B V $23.0BE
(US) Overnight indexed swaps (OIS) are pricing in the US Fed to increase rates by 125bps by July 2022 [follows the release of US Jan CPI data and Fed speak]
(CN) Said that the China PBOC could ease policy again next week - Press
(US) Goldman Sachs expects seven 25bps rate hikes during 2022 [would bring Fed Funds Rate to 2.0%]; previously saw 5 rate hikes in 2022

FRI 2/11
*(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.0% V 1.1%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.4%E
(US) HSBC analysts now expect Fed to hike rates by 50bps at March's meeting; See in total 150bps increase in rates in 2022
VOW3.DE Reports Jan vehicle sales 699.5K, -15.2% y/y
(CA) Protesters on Ambassador Bridge in Canada reportedly agree to open one lane of traffic from the US – press
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 635 v 613 w/w (+3.6% w/w)
PFE FDA and Pfizer postpone review of COVID-19 vaccine for kids under 5 to await three-dose data; FDA postpones advisory committee meeting
(US) PBS News reporter: "The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and communicated those plans to the Russian military"
(US) White House National Sec Adviser Sullivan: We are not saying a final decision has been taken by Pres Putin but allies are sending a firm message to Putin; US stance is Putin has not yet made a decision

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Markets stew over how many Fed rate hikes to expect in 2022

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets stew over how many Fed rate hikes to expect in 2022

2022-01-28T16:07:26.013

A wild trading week kicked off with a bang on Monday as stocks plunged along with most other risk assets including crypto. Investors continued to aggressively prune risk ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Major US indices moved into correction territory (down 10%) intraday and the VIX surged near 39, taking out the December high. Volumes jumped and breadth was exceedingly poor, which had traders looking for clues of potential selling exhaustion and perhaps a bottom. Consternation around the Federal Reserve’s designs on pulling back the punch bowl this year were perhaps married with worries about economic growth after US Markit PMI services dropped to 50.9, the lowest levels since January 2020. Volatility was extreme every day this week, though Monday appeared to put in a near term bottom and equities edged higher for the week with the S&P adding 0.8%, the DJIA rising 1.4%, and the Nasdaq about flat.

The choppiness continued right into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. As expected the Fed left rates unchanged and all but assured liftoff will begin in March. In his press conference Chairman Powell showed no inclination of flinching since his hawkish pivot in back in November. Futures markets quickly began to price in at least five Fed rate hikes in 2022 after he noted they would not rule out another hike in May and adding every meeting going forward would be ‘live’. The US Treasury curve fattened notably post-FOMC, with the 2-/10-year yield spread narrowing some 10+ basis points. The US dollar remained bid and gold was under modest pressure. WTI crude hit a fresh 7-year high which was probably not lost on Chairman Powell and his colleagues. On Thursday, Q4 GDP printed at a whopping 6.9%, but that was pre-Omicron data and was boosted by a large build in inventories. Weekly initial jobless claims continued to illustrate a tight labor market with low layoffs and plentiful job openings.

By Friday, futures were under pressure once again heading into the opening bell. December PCE and Employment Cost Index data resulted in a brief respite of selling as the data met or came in softer than market expectations. Indices continued to vacillate widely, moving in and out of positive territory on several occasions. Traders remained focused on Monday's lows as a key technical gauge heading into the weekly close, while breadth remained decidedly negative, though improving some from the recent highly depressed levels.

In corporate news this week, Apple posted record quarterly profit and revenue, and CEO Cook noted he sees supply issues improving and services continuing to grow strongly. Microsoft’s results and outlook lifted tech stocks mid-week as its earnings continued to rise and its cloud division remained one of the industry’s fastest-growing. Visa shares rose after reporting a beat on profits, with management pointing out it doesn’t believe the current Omicron surge will curtail the economic recovery. Tesla shares fell despite announcing a record annual profit as CEO Musk cautioned that the supply chain issues were a negative factor this quarter and that those holdups are likely to continue through 2022.

Intel stock hit its lowest levels in a year after its revenue and margin outlook disappointed investors. Weak guidance and supply chain disruptions sent Western Digital shares plunging after the manufacturer reported results. Robinhood shares dipped to hit single digits after reporting a big net loss and a reduction in active users in Q4. Nvidia reportedly is preparing to ditch the planned takeover of Softbank’s Arm division as regulatory hurdles appear to be too formidable.


SUN 1/23
(DE) German Navy Chief Schönbach resigns after positive comments on Russian Pres Putin - press
RNO.FR Alliance of Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi expected to announce plan to invest more than €20B over next five years on EV development - press

MON 1/24
*(FR) FRANCE JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.5 V 55.3E (14th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.5 V 57.0E (19th month of expansion and highest reading since Aug 2021)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.0 V 57.5E (19th month of expansion)
6752.JP Said to start producing new Tesla batteries in 2023; New batteries will reportedly boost Tesla Model S range from ~650km to ~750km - Nikkei
*(UK) JAN PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.9 V 57.6E (20th straight expansion, but lowest reading since Feb 2021)
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Blames US and NATO for rising tensions in Ukraine; Sees very high risk of Ukraine offensive in Donbas region
*(US) JAN PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.0 V 56.7E (Lowest since Oct 2020)
SON Increases prices for paperboard tubes and cores by at least 6% on US, Canadian shipments; Effective Mar 1, 2022
*(SG) SINGAPORE CENTRAL BANK (MAS): TO RAISE SLIGHTLY THE RATE OF APPRECIATION OF THE S$NEER POLICY BAND, Leaves width of band and level at which centered unchanged (intra-meeting move)
*(AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CPI Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.2%E
1112.HK Will not proceed with planned 5-year USD bond offering, cites market conditions

TUES 1/25
005380.KR Reports Q4 (KRW) Net 0.55T v 1.38T y/y; Op 1.53T v 1.64T y/y; Rev 31.0T v 29.2T y/y; Chip shortage situation will normalize by July 2022
ERICB.SE Reports Q4 (SEK) Net 10.1B v 7.2B y/y, Adj Op 12.3B v 10.0Be, Rev 71.3B v 68.1Be; Expects fundamentals to remain strong in our core mobile infrastructure business during 2022
*(DE) GERMANY JAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 95.7 V 94.5E (1st improvement in 7 months)
NVDA Reportedly preparing to abandon takeover of Arm as it sees little to no progress in winning regulatory approval - press
GE Reports Q4 $0.92 adj v $0.83e, Rev $20.3B v $21.2Be; Guides FY22 adj EPS weak
JNJ Reports Q4 $2.13 adj v $2.12e, Rev $24.8B v $25.3Be
MMM Reports Q4 $2.31 v $2.03e, Rev $8.61B v $8.60Be
RTX Reports Q4 $1.08 v $1.01e, Rev $17.0B v $17.2Be; Guides initial FY22 short of consensus
VZ Reports Q4 $1.31 v $1.28e, Rev $34.1B v $33.8Be; Sees adj EBITDA growth in 2022 to be offset by headwinds from non-cash items
ADM Reports Q4 $1.50 v $1.36e, Rev $23.1B v $20.4Be; Raises dividend 8.1% to $0.40/shr from $0.37/shr (implied yield 2.3%e)
AXP Reports Q4 $2.18 v $1.78e, Rev $12.1B v $11.6Be
AJRD Lockheed believes it is highly likely that the FTC will vote to sue to block the transaction and expect they will make a decision before Jan. 27th; Lockheed could elect to fight the lawsuit or terminate the merger
*(HU) HUNGARY CENTRAL BANK (MNB) RAISES BASE RATE BY 50BPS TO 2.90%; MORE-THAN- EXPECTED
PCAR Reports Q4 $1.47 v $1.31e, Rev $6.69B v $5.38Be
(US) Jan Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index: -16.2 v +27.3 prior
VTNR Reports voluntary termination of asset divestiture agreement with Safety-Kleen Systems from CLH unit
(HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy: To continue with rate hikes on a monthly basis until inflation outlook stabilizes and risks turn balanced - post rate decision statement
*(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 8 V 14E
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 113.8 V 111.1E
MSFT Reports Q2 $2.48 v $2.29e, Rev $51.7B v $50.1Be
TXN Reports Q4 $2.27 v $1.95e, Rev $4.83B v $4.44Be; Guides Q1 strong
(US) SEMI Dec North America-based Manufacturers of Semi Equipment Billings: $3.92B, -0.5% m/m (+5.0% prior) and +46.1% y/y (+50.6% prior)
MSFT Guides Q3 Rev $48.5-49.3B (implied) v $47.7Be
005930.KR Normalizes chip production operations in China Xi'an after COVID-19 measures ease

WEDS 1/26
066570.KR Reports final FY21 (KRW) Net 1.42T v 2.07T y/y, Op 3.86T v 3.91T y/y, Rev 74.7T v 58.1T y/y
ANTM Reports Q4 $5.14 v $5.11e, Rev $36.0B v $36.4Be; Raises quarterly dividend by 13% to $1.28/shr from $1.13/shr
T Reports Q4 $0.78 adj v $0.76e, Rev $41.0B v $40.4Be
ADP Reports Q2 $1.65 v $1.63e, Rev $4.03B v $3.98Be; Raises guidance
GD Reports Q4 $3.39 v $3.37e, Rev $10.3B v $10.7Be; Notes highest Gulfstream orders in more than a decade
GLW Reports Q4 $0.54 v $0.51e, Rev $3.68B v $3.61Be; Guides Q1 above estimates
BA Reports Q4 -$9.44** adj v -$0.09e, Rev $14.8B v $17.0Be; 787 program recorded $3.5B pre-tax non-cash charge; Raises 737 Max planned output to 26 from 19
ABT Reports Q4 $1.32 v $1.18e, Rev $11.5B v $10.6Be
BA Guides initial FY22 Rev 'to improve' y/y; Increasing 777/777X production rate to 3 per month in 2022 - earnings slides
3333.HK Said to have told investors Evergrande is actively in communication with creditors; Plans to have preliminary restructuring plan in 6 months - press
*(US) DEC PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 2.1% V 1.2%E
KNX Reports Q4 $1.61 v $1.43e, Rev $1.82B v $1.72Be
(US) Dec New Home Sales: 811K v 760Ke
(DE) Reportedly Nord Stream 2 operator formally registers a German subsidiary; Unable to say when certification process will be resumed - press
UBSG.CH To acquire automated investment co Wealthfront for $1.4B in cash
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast to 6.5% from 5.1%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 22nd: 477.5K total units, -9.8% y/y
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25%; AS EXPECTED; SAYS 'IT WILL SOON BE APPROPRIATE' TO RAISE RATES
(US) Fed Chair Powell: With elevated inflation and strong labor market, Fed will continue to adapt policy; Policy has been adapting to an evolving environment - post rate decision statement
(US) Fed Chair Powell: It is not possible to predict the path of policy rates; Will be guided by data and evolving outlook - post rate decision Q&A
INTC Reports Q4 $1.09 adj v $0.90e, Rev $20.5B v $18.3Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 5% to $0.365 from $0.3475 (indicated yield 2.82%)
TSLA Reports Q4 $2.54 v $2.11e, Rev $17.7B v $16.1Be
STX Reports Q2 $2.41 v $2.36e, Rev $3.12B v $3.11Be
005930.KR Reports final Q4 (KRW) Net 10.8T v 6.6T y/y (v 11.1Te); Op 13.9T v 13.8T prelim (v 9.1T y/y) , Rev 76.6T v 76.0T prelim (v 61.6T y/y)

THURS 1/27
SAP.DE Reports final Q4 EPS €1.86 v €1.64e, Op €2.47B v €2.77B y/y, Rev €7.98B v €7.91Be
DBK.DE Reports Q4 Net €145M v €51M y/y, Pretax €82M v €175M y/y, Net Rev €5.90B v €5.68Be
DGE.UK Reports H1 Net £2.09B v £1.66B y/y, Adj Op £2.74B v £2.24B y/y, Rev £7.96B v £6.87B y/y
(US) Money markets currently pricing 5 rate hikes of 25bps for Fed during 2022
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: No positive reaction on main points from US on security proposals, but US response gives hope on starting serious dialogue on secondary issues; President Putin to decide next steps
DOW Reports Q4 $2.15 v $2.04e, Rev $14.4B v $14.3Be; In 2022, expects continued demand strength across its end markets
VLO Reports Q4 $2.47 v $1.79e, Rev $35.9B v $28.9Be; Remains optimistic on refining margins
MCD Reports Q4 $2.23 v $2.31e, Rev $6.01B v $6.03Be
CMCSA Reports Q4 $0.77 v $0.73e, Rev $30.3B v $29.6Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 260K V 265KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.675M V 1.67ME
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 6.9% V 5.5%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.3% V 3.4%E
*(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 6.9% V 6.0%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.9% V 4.9%E
(US) Nevada reports Dec casino gaming Rev $1.15B, +68% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $650.8M, +123% y/y
*(US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -3.8% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: -6.6% V -4.0%E
V Reports Q1 $1.81 v $1.69e, Rev $7.06B v $6.77Be; Do not believe the current surge in the pandemic will curtail the recovery
AAPL Reports Q1 $2.10 v $1.89e, Rev $124.0B v $118.1Be; Expect to reach record Q2 Rev this quarter; Sees less supply chain issues in current quarter, Rev loss expected to be less than $6B
(US) Pres Biden reportedly told Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy that a Russian invasion is now virtually certain once the ground freezes - CNN

FRI 1/28
*(FR) FRANCE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 4.9%E
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia does not want war but will defend its interests
*(DE) GERMANY Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.7% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.8%E
CAT Reports Q4 $2.69 v $2.22e, Rev $13.8B v $13.3Be
CVX Reports Q4 $2.56 v $3.06e, Rev $48.2B v $45.0Be; Guides Q1 buybacks to top $3-5B annual guidance range
2866.HK Positive profit alert: Prelim FY21 (CNY) Net 5.8-6.8B +172-219% y/y
*(US) Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 1.0% V 1.2%E
*(US) DEC PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.8% V 5.8%E