Ukraine war and Fed policy minutes keep markets under pressure

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Ukraine war and Fed policy minutes keep markets under pressure

2022-04-08T16:04:26.217

Markets opened the week unsettled amid ongoing consternation surrounding the Ukraine war as well as US Federal Reserve policy. Crude oil prices rose in the early part of the week as another round of Western sanctions on Russia was being contemplated following the unearthing of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha. Europeans openly discussed a mandatory phase out of imported coal to go along with additional measures to strength energy sanctions. Western officials also stepped up their rhetoric surrounding President Putin reiterating their belief that war crimes, and potential genocide is being committed by Russia. The pressure seemed to have little baring on the ground though. By Friday, reports circulated that dozens has been killed in Russia missile attack on Ukraine railway station in Kramatorsk which was being used as an evacuation center.

US Treasury yields were jolted higher on Tuesday when Vice Chair nominee Brainard’s hawkish commentary caught investors’ attention, presaging the March FOMC minutes. Wednesday’s minutes essentially supported what we have heard from a full throated chorus of Fed officials of late. Namely, a 50 bps cut remains firmly on the table and is possible in May when the Fed is likely to begin cutting back on the balance sheet as well. According to the minutes, the monthly cap on drawdowns will likely rise to $95B by this summer, but to date officials have not decided the target size for the balance sheet at the end of the process. Increasingly aggressive calls by both Fed officials and forecasters on rates continued to push yields higher as the week progressed. By Friday, US 10-year Treasury yield rose for a sixth consecutive day, notching a new three-year high above 2.7% which resulted in an unwind in the recent curve inversion for the benchmark 2/10 year spread. Oil prices ended the week only modestly higher, with WTI below $100/bbl. For the week, the S&P fell 1.3%, the DJIA slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was dove 3.9%.

In corporate news this week, newly reinstated Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced he would halt stock buybacks in order to invest in employees and stores, as unionization efforts accelerate at some of its locations. Costco shares hit a new 52-week high after the store chain announced double digit growth in March same store sales. Twitter added Elon Musk to its board of directors after the Tesla CEO disclosed a large position earlier in the week, though Musk will be limited to taking a 14.9% stake while he serves on the social media giant’s board. Spirit Airlines confirmed receipt of an unsolicited $33/share all-cash takeover offer from JetBlue Airways, throwing a wrench in its planned merger with Frontier Airlines.


SUN 4/3
(EU) Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from Apr 1st - press
(RU) Russian Pres Putin said to be under pressure to achieve victory in eastern Ukraine by Russian holiday Victory Day on May 9th - CNN
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: Russia will demand Rouble (RUB) payments for other goods; Russia does not want to make life difficult for Western purchasers of Russian gas
MON 4/4
(UK) FCA: To review LME approach on suspension and resumption in Nickel Trading; sees exchange remaining vigilant until situation resolved
SBUX Founder and incoming CEO Howard Schultz decides to suspend stock repurchasing program, effectively immediately
TWTR Tesla CEO Musk reports 9.2% passive stake - 13G filing
(US) US to seek Russia's suspension from UN Human Rights Council - press
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Sunak: It is my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology
CCL Reports one-week period of March 28-April 3 was its busiest booking week in the company's history (double-digit increase from the previous record 7-day booking total)
TUES 4/5
(PE) Peru President Castillo declares state of emergency in Lima and Callao; to enforce curfew on Apr 6th due to inflation protests
(EU) EU's Dombrovskis: Sanction discussions on Russia to include energy sector with oil, coal sanctions as an option
(UR) EU's Foreign Policy Chief Borrell and EU Commission President Von der Leyen to travel to Kyiv this week - press
(RU) EU reportedly to ban Russian trucks and vessels from entering the EU; To block all transactions with VTB bank and other three Russian banks already excluded from SWIFT messaging system - press
(DE) Germany Finance Min Lindner: EU did Not find deal on corporate tax today; Poland vetoed 15% min tax implementation by 2023
(CN) Reportedly China urges Shanghai to ensure port, shipping operations - press
(UR) Czech Republic reportedly sent several T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine - Czech TV
TWTR Adds Elon Musk to board of directors; To limit Musk stake to 14.9% while he serves on Board (currently 9.2% stake)
*(US) MAR ISM SERVICES INDEX: 58.3 V 58.5E
(US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair nominee): Expects balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than prior recovery; Fed ready to take stronger action if inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest need for such action
(US) Fed's George (FOMC voter, hawk): A 50bps hike will be an option we have to consider; Fed may have to go above neutral to bring inflation down - TV interview
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -1.0% v -0.9% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q1 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%
SAVE Confirms receipt of unsolicited $33/shr all-cash proposal from JetBlue Airways
*(CN) CHINA MAR CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 42.0 V 49.7E (1st contraction in 7 months and lowest level in two years)
WEDS 4/6
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: If there is to be a successful negotiation between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, there will have to be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the highest level - French tv interview
(RU) Russia Finance Min Siluanov: Had to pay Roubles (RUB) to holders of 2022 and 2042 eurobonds as foreign bank rejected to process FX payment in amount of $649.2M
(CN) China oil firms Sinopec, CNOOC and Petrochina reportedly stay away from trading new Russian cargoes for May loadings; Some independent refiners continue ESPO** crude imports - press
(CN) China vows use of monetary policy tools to aid domestic economy at the proper time and in a flexible way - Chinese media
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Confidentially discussing possible security guarantees with Ukraine; Not making any preparations to postpone exit from nuclear power - speaking in Berlin
(RU) UN to vote on suspending Russia from United Nations Human Rights council - press
Reportedly US banks, including Wells Fargo and Bank of America debating a plan to use Zelle to challenge Visa and Mastercard; Plan to expand Zelle to merchant payments - press
TM North America sales exec: See US sales of 15.5M units in 2022 vs 16.5M y/y, citing supply chain headwinds
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Apr 2nd: 502.2K total units, -2.7% y/y
(US) USPS raises price of First-Class Mail Forever stamp by 6.5% from 58 cents to 60 cents, effective July 10th
*(US) FOMC MAR MINUTES: OFFICIALS GENERALLY EYED MONTHLY $60B CAP FOR TREASURY DRAWDOWN AND $35B FOR MBS DRAWDOWN; MANY ON FED WOULD HAVE SOUGHT 50BPS MARCH HIKE IF NOT FOR UKRAINE WAR
COST Reports Mar total SSS +12.2% (ex-gas and FX)
005930.KR Reports Prelim Q1 (KRW) Op 14.1T v 13.4Te (highest Q1 Op since 2018); Rev 77.0T v 75.0Te (Rev record high)
HPQ Berkshire Hathaway files Form 3, reports purchase of ~121M shares in the co.[~11.4% stake]
(US) Reportedly House speaker Pelosi in talks to visit Taiwan [would be the first US House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years] - press
THURS 4/7
066570.KR Reports Q1 (KRW) Op 1.88T v 1.52T y/y; Rev 21.1T v 18.81T y/y
(CN) China Foreign Min spokesperson Zhao Lijian: US House Speaker Pelosi should immediately cancel her trip plan to Taiwan
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Ukraine presented new proposals and new draft agreement on Apr 6th, different from Istanbul ones; Ukraine proposes to discuss Crimea, Donbas status which is unacceptable
STZ Reports Q4 $2.37 adj v $2.15e, Rev $2.10B v $2.02Be; Plans $500M share repurchases in Q1
CAG Reports Q3 $0.58 v $0.57e, Rev $2.90B v $2.84Be; Guides Q4 gross inflation* 16%
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 166K V 200KE (lowest since 1968); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.523M V 1.302ME
(US) Speaker Pelosi tests positive for COVID-19, trip to Asia postponed to a later date
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: We have had significant losses of troops in Ukraine, its a tragedy - TV interview
(US) Senate confirms Biden nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court by 53-47 vote (as expected)
(EU) EU reportedly to support Russian coal embargo in fifth round of sanctions - press
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CREDIT: $41.8B V $18.1BE (record level)
TSLA CEO Musk: Trailing 12-month deliveries >1.0M; Tesla seeking to produce 500K Model Y at Texas factory, to start Cybertruck production next year
AAPL Reportedly orders for the 5G iPhone SE and AirPods are stable - Digitimes
FRI 4/8
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz reportedly delaying a final decision over whether to give Ukraine high-end tanks for its battle against Russia. initially expected this week - Politico
MAERSKB.DK Launches Maersk Air Cargo unit; Expected to be fully operational as of H2 2022
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) CUTS KEY 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE BY 300BPS TO 17.00% (INTRA-POLICY MOVE); Says further rate cuts possible during upcoming meetings
(EU) EU adopts 5th round of sanctions against Russia, including ban on Russian coal import from Aug 2022 and banning Russian vessels from EU ports
(EU) Reportedly EU has already started working on the 6th package of sanctions against Russia; Next objectives could be uranium and/or oil sanctions via monthly reductions, tariffs or escrow accounts, or a combination - press
(UR) Slovakia PM: Delivered its sole S-300 air defence system to Ukraine
*(CA) CANADA MAR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +72.5K V +79.9KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.3% V 5.4%

Equities churn sideways while yield curve sees more inversions

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Equities churn sideways while yield curve sees more inversions

2022-04-01T16:11:25.14

US indices came into the final week of Q1 riding momentum. Investors have looked past concerns about inflation, Ukraine, and increasingly hawkish global central banks by adding to beaten down stock portfolios heading into quarter end. That momentum waned though, as the VIX pushed back above 20 and Treasury yields remained elevated. The US yield curve saw inversions spread and deepen into and after another strong US employment report on Friday. The March jobs report showed labor demand remained strong, and wage growth continued to run above the Fed’s comfort zone. The participation rate ticked up for the second straight month while the unemployment rate fell to a new post-pandemic low. Fed watchers were quick reiterate calls that front loaded rate hikes will be required in the current Fed tightening cycle. Also, hot inflation readings across Europe prompted multiple ECB officials to talk about the increased likelihood of rate hikes later this year putting upward pressure on yields across the EU. By Friday, the closely watched US Treasury 2/10 year spread yield inverted by 7 basis points resulting in a growing number of Wall Street analysts forecasting a possible recession.

Global crude oil prices fell back towards $100/barrel amid continued back and forth reporting on ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Russia officials indicated that they would drastically cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv after getting a new security proposal from Ukraine that would keep them from joining NATO. But any good will from those talks dissipated quickly as the week progressed with no direct commentary from President Putin and continued discontent expressed by the West. Also a game of chicken drew on as European officials remained adamant they would not bend to President Putin’s demand that EU countries find a way to pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles. Russia appeared to blink, or at least punt, after spokesman Peskov said any payments on gas deliveries due after Apr 1st won’t be necessary until the second half of April and May. For the week, the S&P edged up 0.1%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%.

In corporate news this week, Micron shares were volatile after reporting a top and bottom line beat of expectations but warning that chip shortages could extend into next year. FedEx shares gained some ground on the announcement that Raj Subramaniam will become CEO, though shares sold off after the initial bump, even though one report said that activists could still get involved after the management change. China tech ADRs gained ground on Friday after reports that China will consider giving US regulators full access to audits of most Chinese firms by mid-year.

In M&A news, ratings expert Nielsen agreed to be bought by private equity for $16B, subject to a 45 day ‘go shop’ period. In-home patient-focused healthcare provider LHC Group was acquired by UnitedHealth in a $5.4B cash deal. Workplace collaboration solutions provider Poly agreed to merge with HP in a $3.3B deal. GM and other auto makers reported double digit y/y declines in March vehicle sales.


SUN 3/27
(US) Biden administration to call for new minimum tax on billionaires including tax on unrealized gains – press
(CN) Shanghai Port [largest port in the world based on cargo throughput] will maintain 24 hour ops during lockdown - Press
MON 3/28
(RU) Russia Pres Putin orders Russian govt, Gazprom and Russian Central Bank to report on the change in the currency of payment for gas supplies to Rubles (RUB) by Mar 31st - Russian press
(JP) YEN BRIEFLY WEAKENED AGAINST USD TO TEST KEY 125 LEVEL (1st test of this level in 7 years)
(UR) Ukrainian and Russian negotiators reportedly discussing pause in hostilities as part of deal along with Ukraine abandoning NATO
Fedex Raj Subramaniam promoted to President and CEO, effective June 1st; Frederick Smith to serve as Exec Chairman
TUES 3/29
(UR) Ukraine negotiators: Ukraine suggested new security guarantee system at today's talks with Russia; Sees Turkey as key security guarantor; Reiterates referendum will be needed, offers Russia to discuss Crimea
(RU) Russia negotiator Medinskiy: To 'drastically, cardinally' cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv; Putin-Zelenskiy meeting is possible after pact approved by Foreign Ministers ready; Talks were constructive and now in practical phase - statement on peace talks with Ukraine
(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 107.2 V 107.0E
MU Reports Q2 $2.14 v $1.95e, Rev $7.79B v $7.51Be
WED 3/30
(DE) GERMANY MAR CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 2.7% V 1.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 7.6% V 5.3% PRIOR
TSM Chairman: Will not revise down sales forecast and Capex for 2022; China consumer electronics demand impacted by lockdown; to rearrange production priorities amid new demand profile; affirms still maintains production in Shanghai despite lockdown
(US) White House reportedly considering using Emergency Production Act to develop battery metal supplies – press
(CN) CHINA MAR PMI MANUFACTURING (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.5 V 49.8E (First contraction in 5 months)
THRS 3/31
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 202K V 196KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.31M V 1.34ME
(RU) Russia President Putin: Signed decree on gas for Rouble trade, payments for gas supplies to start from April 1st
(US) Biden Adminstration confirms largest oil reserve release in US history, to release 1M bbl/day over the next six months

FRI 4/1
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 7.5% V 6.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.1%E
(CN) China reportedly considers to give US full access to audits of most US-listed Chinese firms in mid-2022 – press
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia is preparing a response to Ukraine's proposals, there is a movement forward - speaking in India
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: Payments on gas deliveries due after Apr 1st come in second half of April and May
(US) MAR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +431K V +490KE
(US) MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.6% V 3.7%E (post-pandemic low)
(US) MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.6% V 5.5%E
GM Reports Q1 sales 512.8K vehicles, -14.7% y/y
AMZN

Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

2022-03-18T16:09:48.05

Stock markets built on the momentum coming out of last week despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict. A continued easing in commodity prices, most notably crude appeared to underscore improving sentiment early on. Also, Chinese stocks saw a dramatic bounce after Premier Liu He, in a speech, promised to keep equity markets stable while also opening the door to additional stimulus measures for the Chinese economy (though specific policy changes are yet to be announced). Early in the week a narrative held that Ukraine and Russian negotiators were both giving positive assessments on progress being made in difficult peace talks. That narrative began to take on water as the week progressed in light of continued developments on the ground and, in particular, a defiant and bellicose address from President Putin. On Friday, Presidents Biden and Xi discussed Ukraine and Taiwan in a 2-hour call that, according to both sides, went well but offered little in terms of deliverables. Gold prices retreated and the US dollar softened as the week progressed.

As expected, on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve commenced a tightening cycle with a 25 basis point hike. Importantly, updated Fed forecasts now have the median FOMC official projecting the Fed Funds rate to rise to nearly 2% by the end of this year and exceeding the neutral rate of around 2.5% for both 2023 and 2024. In his press conference, Chairman Powell seemed to indicate that the balance sheet reduction plan will be announced at the May meeting, while emphasizing the FOMC is “acutely aware of” and “determined” to contain inflation. The clearly hawkish signal may have been blunted by the fact futures markets had already priced in 6 or 7 rate hikes this year while others noted with the Fed’s path now clearer much of the message may have already been priced into stocks. Following the Fed announcement the NASDAQ rebound gained momentum and the US yield curve flattened, highlighted by a brief inversions in the 5/10 year spread. Also on the Central Bank beat, the BOE raised rates, as expected, but the announcement included one dovish dissenter who wanted to see rates stay pat which put modest downward pressure on Gilt yields. For the week, the S&P rebounded 6.2%, the DJIA gained 5.5%, and the Nasdaq surged 8.2%.

In corporate news this week, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced he would step down, with former CEO Shultz returning to serve as interim CEO in early April. Toyota cut its April global production estimates by 17% and said it was uncertain how many vehicles would be impacted by Japan’s recent earthquake that caused power outages. Ford reportedly told dealers it sees lighter deliveries through May as suppliers are not providing parts on time. Both Uber and Lyft announced new fuel charges to ease the load on drivers as gas prices spike, while FedEx implement a fuel surcharge increase to offset higher fuel costs. FedEx also reported a miss on its top line as profit margins were hit from delivery network expansion and new customer intake, while labor costs continued to rise and the peak shipping season was lighter than anticipated.

Pfizer and BioNTech sought Emergency Use Authorization for an additional booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine for older adults, while Moderna asked the FDA to authorize a second booster for adults of all ages. Netflix moved closer to shutting down the ability to share passwords across households, as it launches a pilot program in some Latin American countries that would force such users to pay an ‘extra member’ fee. In M&A news, the bidding for Kohl’s heated up with reports that Sycamore and Hudson Bay could make an offer in the high $60's. Nielsen shares jumped after reports that a consortium including Elliott is in late stage talks to acquire it for around $15B including debt.


SUN 3/13
(IQ) Iran launches salvo of missiles into Iraq; 12 reportedly land near US consulate in Erbil, Kurdistan province of Iraq; no injuries reported
(RU) Russia Central Bank says trading on MOEX will not resume for week of March 14-18th
(IN) Reportedly US ready to seek nuclear agreement without Russia; Will not rule out interim or replica deal; Scope of differences on Iran deal are sanctions relief on Iran - financial press
F Reportedly informed dealers that its deliveries will be lighter until end-May citing 37 suppliers which failed to provide parts as scheduled; Expects FY22 deliveries at 1.66M v 1.9M y/y - press
*(RU) RUSSIA NEGOTIATOR SLUTSKY: ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS, IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROGRESS IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS MAY DEVELOP INTO A JOINT POSITION OF THE DELEGATIONS AND INTO DOCUMENTS TO SIGN
(CN) China reports 3,122 new COVID-19 cases on Mar 13th (highest in nearly 2 years) - press
(UR) Lviv governor Kozytzskyi: 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the Russian air strike on Yavoriv, western Ukraine on Mar 13th (**Note: Yavoriv is ~25km from Poland-Ukraine border)
(DE) Germany Econ Min Habeck: Germany would stop most Russian oil imports by end-2022, Russian coal imports by fall 2022; It’s hard to halt imports of Russian gas - press interview
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Nearly half (~$300B) of Russia's gold and FX reserves were frozen due to Western sanctions
(CN) China places city of Shenzhen (17.5M of residents, major tech hub, 4th world's largest container port) into a lockdown to last until Mar 20 - press
*(RU) According to US officials, Russia had asked China for military equipment and other assistance since the start of Ukraine's invasion; Reportedly there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry - FT
(US) White House National Sec Adviser Sullivan to meet China’s top foreign policy official Yang Jiechi in Rome, Italy on Monday, Mar 14th - press
TSLA CEO Musk: Tesla and SpaceX seeing significant inflation pressure; Inflation pressure being seen in Logistics and materials
2354.TW Suspends production in Shenzhen; resumption of business depends on Govt approval; attempting to mitigate the effects of the lockdown by reassigning production to other sites - press
MON 3/14
VOW3.DE Exec: suspended production at plants in China's city Changchun from Mar 14th to Mar 17th due to COVID-19 outbreaks
(RU) Ukraine Presidential adviser: To discuss peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees during next round of talks with Russia; Ukraine's position is unchanged
(IN) India said to be considering to accept Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via an Indian rupee-Russian ruble (INR-RUB) transaction - press
(UK) Omicron sub-variant 'Deltacron' BA.2 variant said to be almost as infectious as measles (one of the most contagious diseases in human history) - UK press
(IL) Israel Foreign Min Lapid: Israel won't be used as a means to bypass the sanctions on Russia - press
Reportedly Chinese tycoon nearing loan to backstop short Nickel trade - press
(RU) Russia Pres Putin signs law on registering rights to foreign planes being leased by Russian companies - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: All the plans of Russia in Ukraine will be fulfilled in full and the time frames outlined; Russia did not request China military aid for operation
(EU) EU to place new sanctions on Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft to block their investments in fossil fuels but new rules still allow EU to buy oil from Russian oil companies - press
(RU) Russia may suspend grain exports until June 30th - Russian press
(US) Small but growing number of Californians reportedly going 'off the grid' amid wildfires and higher electricity bills - NYT
(US) Sen Manchin (D-WV): Unable to support nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to Federal Reserve
(US) Treasury Dep Sec: US options still on the table for Russia include a full trade embargo, blocking access to international waterways, prohibitions on nickel, uranium, titanium, and crypto - CNBC
(US) US nears agreement to allow Venezuelan oil-for-debt swaps by Chevron, ENI, Repsol, with further action by Venezuela; New license would allow Chevron a 'more active role' in Venezuela - press
LME Statement: Nickel contracts to resume trading on March 16th at 02:00 EST (06:00AM GMT); To impose 15% limit on daily price moves across all metals
(CN) China confirms total 3,602 coronavirus cases v 1,437 prior
(RU) Estonia said to be the first NATO member nation to have a body formally call for the implementation of a no-fly zone amid Russia’s war on Ukraine
TSLA Said to have increased prices for certain China made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by up to CNY20K in China; Increases prices of 'all' models in US, second increase in 1-week - press
TUES 3/15
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor Arestovich: Think an agreement between Russia and Ukraine can be concluded within one to two weeks, in other case in early May when Russia runs out of resources
GAZP.RU Reportedly Russia's Yamal-Europe gas pipeline suspends flows - press
(IR) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: An agreement of revival of Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is on the finishing path; Received written assurances from US that sanctions will not hinder cooperation within framework of nuclear deal
*(DE) GERMANY MAR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -21.4 V -22.5E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: -39.3 V +5.0E
ECL Announces a temporary global 8%-12% energy surcharge; Effective Apr 1st, 2022; Took a wide range of productivity actions to improve our efficiency and reduce its costs to help offset the strong inflationary challenges and subsequent pricing
MAERSKB.DK CEO: Maersk is no longer buying Russian shipping fuel; Expects to finish last bookings to Russia by end-Apr 2022
*(US) MAR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -11.8 V +6.1E (moves back into negative readings and lowest reading since May 2020)
*(US) FEB PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.8% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 10.0% V 10.0%E
(CN) Saudi Arabia said to be in talks to price oil sales to China in CNY currency (Yuan) - press
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.9% v +5.1% prior
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Kyiv is not serious about finding a mutually acceptable solution
WEDS 3/16
*(CN) China Vice Premier Liu He: Promises to keep equity markets stable; Will continue to support overseas share listings - Xinhua
(SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Rate hike to come sooner than 2024; inflation is far too high at this time and likely to gap further
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor: Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in several operational areas, radically changing situation
EQNR.NO Announces new measures to maintain high gas exports to Europe; Increased production permits allow the high gas production from the Troll, Oseberg and Heidrun fields to be maintained through the summer months
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Peace talks with Ukraine are not easy, but there are certain hope for compromise; Some formulation of agreements with Ukraine are close to being agreed
(RU) Russian delegation member: negotiations with Ukraine are difficult and slow, but Russia wants peace as soon as possible
(UK) US and UK said to launch bilateral trade and investment dialogues next week - US financial press
(DE) German Bundesbank Gov Nagel (hawk): Does not expect stagflation nor see any wage-price spiral - financial press
(US) US said to be considering to provide Ukraine with guided missiles, including drones such as AeroVironment's Switchblades - press
JBL Reports Q2 $1.67 v $1.47e, Rev $7.55B v $7.41Be; Guides Q3 and initial FY22 strong
SBUX CEO Keven Johnson to step down; Founder and former CEO Shultz to serve as interim CEO; effective April 4th - ahead of Annual Meeting
*(US) FEB ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.2% V 0.9%E
*(US) MAR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 79 V 81E
(JP) Earthquake reported off coast of Japan near Fukushima; Earthquake said to shake buildings in Tokyo - press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 0.5%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 12th: 496K total units, -4.7% y/y
NFLX To pilot program that would force subscribers who share account outside their households to pay more; Will be initially tested in Central and South America - Variety
(US) Pres Biden: New assistance to Ukraine will include armed drones
*(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE 25 BPS TO 0.25-0.50% (AS EXPECTED) (1st rate hike since Dec 2018); TO BEGIN CUTTING HOLDINGS OF TREASURY SECURITIES AND AGENCY DEBT AND AGENCY MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES AT A 'COMING MEETING'
STLD Guides Q1 $5.85-5.89 (ex-item) v $5.27e
THURS 3/17
(CN) China plans to establish red light/green light audit system for US listed Chinese companies to open up financial information - FT
TM Cuts Apr global production 17% to 750K units (prior guided average global production for Ar-June at 800K); Notes number of vehicles impacted by Japan's earthquake in uncertain
JPMorgan analysts raise forecast for Q3 2022 Brent oil price to $120/bbl (prior $100/bbl)
*(TW) TAIWAN CENTRAL BANK (CBC) RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE BY 25BPS to 1.375% (NOT EXPECTED)
(RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Eurobond coupon payment was made to correspondent bank
(RU) Moldova President Sandu: Calling for complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from Transnistria
(UR) China's ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong: China would never attack Ukraine; China will help, especially economically - Ukrainian press
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.9% (record high) V 5.8%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reports of major progress in talks is wrong; Elements or progress are correct
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor: Ukraine's position is unchanged that Ukraine's borders as of 1991 must be recognized
(EU) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist): Calibration of net purchases in Q3 to be data dependent
(CN) China reportedly studies virus control measures; Vows more effective measures on COVID-19 control - China TV
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) RAISES BANK RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED; Says further rate rises might be needed in coming months
*(UK) BOE MAR MINUTES: VOTED 8-1 TO RAISE INTEREST RATES (Cunliffe sought for steady policy)
NUE Adjusts Q1 $7.20-7.30 v $7.46e (prior Net slightly reduced q/q)
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Not ruling out possible two hikes in 2022; To depend on incoming inflation data
(US) Pres Biden to hold call with China Pres Xi on Mar 18th to discuss Russia-Ukraine war and managing competition - press
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 1.67M V 1.700ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.86M V 1.850ME
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 214K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.42M V 1.48ME
*(US) MAR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 27.4 V 14.8E (highest reading since Nov 2021)
Credit Suisse Raises China Equities to Overweight
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E
(CN) China market regulator: Will focus on boosting market expectations and confidence; Will help to unblock domestic circulation
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Pres Zelensky and Pres Putin could meet in the coming weeks, but only after the completion of work on ceasefire agreement - Russian press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.2%
FDX Reports Q3 $4.59 v $4.69e, Rev $23.6B v $23.6Be
(CN) Shenzhen reopens 5 districts that achieved 'Zero Covid' goals, resuming factory production and subways in those districts
MRNA Said to have asked the US FDA to authorize a second booster for adults - press
FRI 3/18
(UR) Blasts said to have been heard in Lviv [largest city in Western Ukraine] - Ukraine media
(RU) Russia said to have set up a no fly over Donbass separatists region in Ukraine - Russia press
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Domestic economy picking up as a trend; reiterates stance that appropriate to continue with easing - post rate decision press conference
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor Zhovkva: Ukraine-Russia talks are progressing only slowly; Ukraine needs hard security guarantees in deal; Will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Concern that if Euro exchange rate weakens too much it aggravates our problems with the high energy inflation in the very short term - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Russian delegation to Ukraine peace talks has expressed readiness to work much faster than now
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) LEAVES KEY ONE-WEEK KEY AUCTION RATE UNCHANGED AT 20.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) FED'S BULLARD (VOTER, HAWK; DISSENTER): FOMC SHOULD HAVE IMPLEMENTED BALANCE SHEET PLAN AND RAISED RATES BY 50 BPS - STATEMENT
(UR) Turkey Presidential spokesperson Kalin: Russian Pres Putin wanted Ukraine to complete a disarmament process, protect the Russian language in the country and engage in a "de-Nazi" operation - BBC interview
(US) Fed's Waller (Hawk, Voter): Data is screaming at us to go 50bps increase but geopolitical events call for caution; Favors front-loading rate hikes; Would favor 50bps hikes at 'one or multiple meetings' in the near future - CNBC
*(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.02M V 6.10ME
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina: Raised rates last month to withstand the risks to financial stability; Russia banking system and payments infrastructure is working flawlessly

War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

2022-03-11T16:05:56.583

Trading this week commenced with the Russia’s Ukraine invasion holding a firm grip on markets. Oil prices spiked, to perhaps a crescendo, around the Biden announcement that the US would ban all Russian energy from US markets. Crude broke out to levels not seen since 2014, but prices did roll over in the wake of the Administration’s unilateral announcement and news of additional coordinated SPR releases. As oil prices attempted to stabilize, investors risk appetite improved, putting a floor under global equity markets. Gold prices backed off, the dollar softened and US Treasury yields moved up amid some unwinding or recent safe haven bets. Russian attacks continued across eastern Ukraine while the rhetoric and propaganda remained intense, but sentiment seemed to marginally improve leading into Thursday’s meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers. That meeting offered little in terms of concrete progress towards a ceasefire, but both sides did acknowledge they broached the subject of a future Putin-Zelenskiy meeting. Uncertainty remained extremely high heading into the weekend despite a somewhat softer tone from President Putin who noted there had been certain “positive shifts” in the Ukraine talks. Western officials remained under no illusions though, emphasizing Putin has shown no signs of engaging in serious diplomacy, while planning for additional sanctions against Russia.

Thursday’s trade also saw EU yields rise after the ECB indicated it will halt asset purchases in Q3 despite the ongoing uncertainty around Ukraine, while also affirming it will hike the key rate sometime after that. The ECB also raised its CPI outlook while cutting GDP forecasts in the latest staff projections. US February CPI data largely met market expectations, but some noted the composition was less than encouraging citing rent pressures, in particular. Friday’s March preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading plumbed to more than a decade low while the 1-year inflation expectation, at 5.4%, touched the highest reading since 1981. This week’s developments seemed to only fan fears around a growing narrative that the global economy is careening towards a difficult period of stagflation. For the week, the S&P lost 2.9%, the DJIA was off 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

In corporate news this week, Amazon announced a 20-for-1 stock split in a move that could pave the way for the tech giant to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Oracle earnings came in below expectations, though the company reported progress on its shift to the cloud software market, despite still lagging sector leaders Amazon and Microsoft. Uber gave some upbeat guidance this week, noting its mobility businesses is bouncing back from the effects of Omicron much faster than it had anticipated. DocuSign shares plunged to erase any COVID-era gains after forecasting below consensus for 2023 amid decelerating subscription revenue growth. Didi Global’s ADR sunk 15% after reports late in the week that its planned Hong Kong stock listing had been halted.

Major US companies such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, and American Express joined the throng of firms pausing their operations within Russia. Goldman Sachs said it would be the first Wall Street firm to do the same, and JPMorgan followed suit later in the week. Google announced it would acquire cybersecurity firm Mandiant (formerly FireEye) for $5B and would incorporate the company into its Cloud division. Rival North Dakota shale drillers Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum said they would merge in a cash-and-stock transaction creating a $6B entity.


SUN 3/6
(RU) Banks in Russia are rapidly trying to move to Chinese UnionPay card operator's system and its own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard suspended operations - press
(US) US said to be in talks with Venezuela on possible easing of oil sanctions, the two countries are said to not be close to any deal - press
(RU) Russia President Putin issued decree to allow companies to use Rubles (RUB) to pay foreign creditors [relates to debt payments to creditors in countries that engage in hostile activities against Russia]; Russia Central Bank to also ease reporting requirements for domestic lenders, commercial banks will no longer have to publish their monthly accounts on their websites - US financial press
*(CN) CHINA JAN-FEB TRADE BALANCE: $115.9B V $95.0BE
*(US) US SAID TO BE CONSIDERING ACTING WITHOUT ALLIES ON BAN OF OIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA, no decision has been made as of yet - US financial press
MON 3/7
(RU) Russia Military to hold cease fire and open humanitarian corridors in several Ukraine cities [Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy] at 10:00 Moscow time - Russian press
(CN) China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Taiwan to eventually return to embrace of motherland; Russia-China cooperation is good for world peace and stability
TTF European benchmark Dutch front-month gas futures move above €310/MWh (record high) amid gas supply concerns and oil price rise
(CN) China FX regulator reportedly surveyed banks about their ties with Russia - financial press
(RU) Reportedly Russia is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukrainian cities - US financial press
(EU) Daily 3-month Euribor Fixing: -0.498% v -0.520% prior (above ECB deposit rate and highest since Sept 2020)
BA Said to have suspended purchasing Russian titanium; Reportedly has sufficient supply for airplane production due to supplier diversity and inventory - US financial press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates stance to finish demilitarization of Ukraine, and secure two breakaway regions*; Military action will stop once conditions are met
UBER Raises Q1 Adj EBITDA $130-150M (prior $100-130M); Mobility business is bouncing back from Omicron "much faster than we expected"
(RU) Russian Ministry of Digital Development refutes rumors about plans to disconnect Russia from the global internet - Russian press
WLL Confirms to be acquired by Oasis Petroleum in cash and stock transaction, combined Co valued at EV ~$6.0B
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov said to meet Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba on Thursday, Mar 10th in Turkey - press
AXP Suspends operations in Russia and Belarus
(RU) Ernst & Young said to announce plans to leave Russia as soon as today (to follow KPMG and PwC) - UK press
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Third round of talks with Russia has finished, There are small positive developments in improving the logistics of humanitarian corridors
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: Europe is pushing us towards an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 but we are not taking this decision yet; No one would benefit from that embargo
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: $6.8B V $24.5BE
(UR) Ukraine reportedly received 5,000 AT4* anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets and 5,000 bullet-proof vests from Sweden - press
TUES 3/8
ORA.FR Orange and MASMOVIL confirm exclusive discussions to combine their operations in Spain; Potential deal valued at up to €19.6B
(EU) EU said to consider joint bond issuance to help fund energy and defense to cope with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - financial press
Goldman Sachs analysts raise forecast for 2022 Brent spot price from $98/bbl to $135/bbl
(UK) London Metal Exchange said to have suspended trading in nickel after price for three-month contract rose about 100% in less than 48 hours - press
(IT) Italy Energy Transition Min: Italy aims to become independent from Russian gas imports within 24-30 months
SHEL.UK To withdraw from Russian oil and gas; Will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil, effective immediately; Will shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia, effective as fast as possible
(CN) China President Xi: Sanctions over Russia to hurt global economy; Ukraine situation is "worrying"; China willing to coordinate with Europe on Ukraine
(EU) Reportedly Russian gas flows through Ukraine to Slovakia decreased sharply - press
VOW3.DE Said to temporarily halt orders for hybrid models citing chip shortage and Ukraine war
- German press
MNDT Confirms to be acquired by Google for $23.00/shr in $5.4B all-cash deal
DKS Reports Q4 $3.64 v $3.54e, Rev $3.35B v $3.30Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 11.4% to $0.4875 from $0.4375 (indicated yield 1.96%)
*(US) US PRESIDENT BIDEN SET TO BAN RUSSIAN OIL, LNG AND COAL AS SOON AS TODAY, MAR 8TH - PRESS
VOW3.DE CEO said to warn that economic damage from war risks being worse than pandemic; Europe faced threat of higher inflation from prolonged conflict in Ukraine - press
(UK) UK reportedly will move toward ban on Russian oil with phased-in approach over months to let markets adjust - UK Politico
(US) President Biden: Confirms ban on imports of Russian Oil, Gas and Energy, understands many allies may not be able to join US
(UK) BBC spokesperson: Will resume English-language reporting from within Russia beginning this evening
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy said to have 'cooled down' regarding question of Ukraine joining NATO - financial press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 0.0%
MCD To temporarily close all of its 847 stores in Russia due to Ukraine invasion
(RU) President Putin signs decree on 'special economic measures' restricting imports and exports 'to protect Russia's security'; To include 'a ban on the export of products and raw materials' the list of which to be determined by Russian govt by Dec 31st - Russia press
(PL) Poland Foreign Min: Prepared to transfer all MiG-29 warplanes to US air base at Ramstein. Germany
(UK) London Metal Exchange: Does not consider it appropriate to announce trading resumption date for nickel given continued uncertainties in the market; Doesn't see restarting nickel trading before Mar 11th
PEP Reportedly exploring options for Russian assets, including writing off business in Russia entirely - press
SBUX To pause all business activity in Russia
KO Suspends its business in Russia; To continue to monitor and assess the situation as circumstances evolve
(US) Commerce Sec Raimondo: Any Chinese companies that aid Russia could be shut down; US could essentially shut down semiconductor -manufacturing international corp or any Chinese companies that defy US sanctions - NYT
XPO To create two standalone, publicly traded companies in LTL and tech-enabled brokered transportation; To divest European operations; affirms all guidance
(RU) Russia Central Bank to limit foreign exchange cash withdrawals from individuals FX accounts until Sept 2022 - press
(RU) US President Biden tweets: This much is already clear: Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin. Putin may be able to take a city, but he will never be able to hold the country
WED 3/9
ADS.DE Reports FY21 €1.05 v €0.77 y/y, Op €66M v €105Me, Rev €5.14B v €5.24Be; Raises FY21 dividend 10% to €3.30/shr
(UR) Ukraine govt bans exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt and meat - financial press
*IEA TO RELEASE 62.7M BARRELS (45.7M OF CRUDE OIL AND 16.9MBBL OF OIL PRODUCTS) - PRESS
TM Exec: To lower production plan for Apr-Jun quarter
(RU) Russia Foreign Ministry: Ukraine operation going strictly in line with plan; It is better for Russian goals in Ukraine to be achieved through talks
(EU) EU Presidency office (held by France): Member States have agreed to new sanctions against Russian leaders and oligarchs
(RU) Russia Gov Spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates govt interested in continuing talks with Ukraine; US has declared economic war on Russia; Country may rethink its energy commitments after sanctions
(RU) Russia PM Mishustin: Russia to approve trade ban details in near future; Russian govt will shortly define list of goods subject to import and export bans, no details yet
ZIM Reports Q4 $14.17 v $3.49 y/y, Rev $3.47B v $3.44Be; Declares FY21 dividend $17.00/shr
AMZN Reportedly House Judiciary Committee asking DOJ to commence criminal probe of Amazon over Amazon's use of seller data and illegal obstruction of Congress - US financial press
(UR) Kyiv mayor Klichko: If Russians encircle Kyiv, we have resources for a week
PM Suspends investment and activates plans to scale down manufacturing ops in Russia (~10% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume and ~6% of total net revenues)
*(US) JAN JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 11.263M V 10.950ME
(US) Atlanta Fed's Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate at +0.21 v -0.20 in Jan (first positive reading since Oct 2020)
(RU) Russia Defense Ministry: Admits participation of conscript soldiers in Ukraine operation; Exhaustive measures are being taken to prevent conscript soldiers from being sent to combat areas
(RU) Russia Feb CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.2%e
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 5th: 505K total units, -1.9% y/y
(KR) Conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol projected to win South Korea presidential election - Korean press
(RU) Russia negotiator Slutsky: Delegation at peace talks with Ukraine will Not concede anything, not a single negotiating point
AMZN Approves a 20-for-1 split of the Company’s common stock, effective June 6th; Authorizes $10B buyback (1% of market cap) - filing
UAE Energy Minister: UAE is committed to the OPEC+ agreement and its existing monthly production adjustment mechanism
THURS 3/10
(UK) Conservative MP Heappey: NATO could intervene in Ukraine if Russia uses chemical weapons - press
*(RU) RUSSIA GOV SPOKESPERSON PESKOV: MEETING OF FOREIGN MINS IN TURKEY MAY OPEN WAY FOR TALKS BETWEEN PUTIN AND ZELENSKIY; awaiting outcome of talks between Lavrov and Kuleba
(CN) China said to have widened the trading band between the CNY currency (Yuan) and RUB currency (Ruble) from 5% to 10% - press
(UK) UK adds Russian oligarch and former Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich to sanction list and asset freeze list - press
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: No progress on ceasefire; Russia conveyed impression to continue its attack until demands met - comments after meeting Russian Foreign Min Lavrov
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Possible Putin-Zelenskiy summit was discussed; Mainly spoke about humanitarian corridors with Ukraine; Want serious talks with Ukraine in Belarus
RUALR.RU Rio Tinto said to halt shipments to Rusal's Alumina refinery in Ireland; Looking to stop bauxite shipments to key Rusal plant - press
DBK.DE Targets FY25 Post-tax ROTE >10%, Rev +3.5-4.5% CAGR through FY25 reaching €30B by FY25
(RU) Russia Economy Ministry to ban some forestry exports to 'unfriendly' States until end-2022- Russian press
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(EU) ECB AMENDS ITS BOND BUYING PLAN; Brings forward planned conclusion of APP bond buying program (Conventional QE) to Q3 if the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 217KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.494M V 1.45ME
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.9%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Had very intense discussion on economic situation; Had different views on issues - Q&A
GS Plans to close ops in Russia, the first Wall Street bank to do so - press
V Reports Feb US Spending Momentum Index at 109.33, +6.8% m/m
(EU) Reportedly only a few ECB policymakers favored keeping APP open-ended at today's meeting; Agreed that 1.9% inflation expected in 2024 is at target - press
(UK) London Metal Exchange reportedly to keep nickel market shut until at least next week - press
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: If FX reserves frozen, Russia to repay debt in Rubles
*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.375% V 2.075% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.46 V 2.35 PRIOR AND 2.33 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(RU) Russia Pres Putin endorses proposal to allow govt to request court order to impose external management on facilities and factories that departing companies leave behind - press
London Metal Exchange confirms nickel market will not reopen tomorrow
JPM To actively unwind Russia business; Has not been pursuing any new business in Russia - press
ORCL Reports Q3 $1.13 v $1.17e, Rev $10.5B v $10.5Be
DOCU Reports Q4 $0.48 v $0.48e, Rev $580.8M v $561Me; Guides FY23 Rev light; Authorizes $200M stock buyback (1% of market cap)
OPFI Reports Q4 $0.13 v $0.13e, Adj Rev $96.0M v $98.4Me
(CN) China regulator says confident can resolve audit issues related to US-listed Chinese cos. - financial press
(CN) China reports 1.1K coronavirus cases, highest amount in ~2-years
(CN) China Premier Li: Hitting 5.5% GDP target will not be easy; Low rate of inflation in China shows right policies are being used; China lowered the deficit rate and macro leveraging ratio in 2021
(RU) Russia said to be looking into ways to resume stock trading next week - Press
FRI 3/11
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL CPI M/M: 0.9% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.1%E
(RU) Russian Defense Min Shoigu said to have told Russian Pres Putin about 16,000 'volunteers' from the Middle East who want to fight in Ukraine; Putin ordered to help them get into the war zone - Russian press
(IR) EU's Foreign Policy Chief Borrell: A pause in Vienna nuclear talks is needed due to external factors
(CN) China President Xi reportedly considers to tap He Lifeng as China's next Vice Premier to have broad control over economic, financial and industrial policy - US financial press
*(RU) RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN: THERE ARE CERTAIN POSITIVE SHIFTS IN TALKS WITH UKRAINE WHICH TAKE PLACE ALMOST DAILY - COMMENTS FROM MEETING BELARUS PRES LUKASHENKO
BLK Said to be hit by $17B of losses on Russian exposure - FT
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Have reached a strategic turning point in war; Time and patience is still needed to achieve victory
(CN) China said to stick to current exiting 'zero tolerance' policy to COVID - press
(UR) Ukraine presidential adviser: No new Russian advances during last 24 hours
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +336.6K V +127.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.5% V 6.2%E
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 59.7 V 61.0E (lowest since 2011)
(US) Pres Biden: Confirms US and allies will revoke Russia's Most Favored Nation trade status
(RU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: will present 4th package of measures against Russia tomorrow, on Mar 12th
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: Repeats no progress was made during yesterday's talks with Lavrov
(US) Pres Biden: Ending normal trade is a 'crushing blow' to Russia
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 663 v 650 w/w (+2% w/w)

Markets convulse then reverse after Russia invades Ukraine

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets convulse then reverse after Russia invades Ukraine

2022-02-25T16:12:21.88

As predicted by President Biden and other Western leaders, Russia did commence a large scale military offensive into the Ukraine this week. As the markets woke up to this reality, Thursday saw the NASDQ officially open in bear market territory as investors rushed for safety, pushing down stocks and lifting the prices of oil, gold, and government bonds. Brent crude broke above $100 for the first time since 2014, while the Ruble and the Russian stock market came under considerable pressure.

Central bankers said they will monitor the impacts of the Russian invasion, particularly on energy markets and inflation. But hawks like the Fed’s Bullard continued to express the need to start normalizing policy given that sanctions on Russia will not have a great deal of direct impact on Western economies. Stock markets saw wild volatility, with a 1,000 DJIA swing on Thursday and European bourses on Friday posting their best gains in months, as trader bet on a short term bottom. For the week the S&P gained 0.8%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%.



In corporate news this week, Home Depot posted a beat on its top and bottom line but shares dipped amid declining margins and signs the pandemic boom is moderating. Macy’s notched strong EPS and Rev for its holiday quarter though, like most retailers, continued to face headwinds from inflation and a labor market. Automotive components original equipment manufacturer Tenneco agreed to be acquired by Apollo for $7.1B, a nearly 100% premium. Volkswagen said it was in late-stage talks regarding a potential spinoff of its Porsche unit in order to raise cash as it transitions to electric vehicles. Soo Kim’s Standard General announced it would acquire broadcaster Tegna for $5.4B, ending a takeover saga that had lasted many years and involved several potential suiters.



SUN 2/20
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: LEAVES BOTH 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR RATES
(RU) US Biden Plan would cut correspondent banking relationships between US and Russia banks as part of initial sanctions package - Press
MON 2/21
(DE) Germany Jan PPI M/M: 2.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 25.0% v 24.4%e (highest since 1949)
*(FR) FRANCE FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.6 V 55.5E (15th month of expansion and highest reading since July 2021)
*(DE) GERMANY FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI 58.5 V 59.8E (20th month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.4 V 58.7E (20th month of expansion)
*(UK) FEB PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.3 V 57.0E (21st straight expansion)
(RU) Donetsk separatists reportedly claim they need military and financial aid from Russia - Russian press
(RU) Russia Army (Southerm Military District) said to have prevented border violation from Ukraine; says 5 Ukraine soldiers killed in situation
(RU) Donbas separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine said to have asked Russia to recognize independence - Russian tv
(RU) President Putin: Ukraine does not plan to fulfill the Minsk agreements; To discuss Donbas situation and should discuss separatist recognition - comments attributed to Russia's security council extra-ordinary meeting
(RU) Russia President Putin: Eastern Ukraine territories are ancient Russian lands; Ukraine has become US colony with a puppet government - national tv address
(EU) ECB's Villeroy (France): No need to decide rate-hike dates now; Reiterates call to end APP purchases (conventional QE) around Q3 2022
*(RU) RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN FORMALLY ORDERS TO RECOGNIZE DONBAS LPR AND DPR SEPARATISTS - NATIONAL TV ADDRESS; Putin also ordered troops from Russia to enter the two breakaway regions of Ukraine [Donetsk and Luhansk]
XOM Workers at Beaumont (Texas) refinery have ratified contract offer; the move paves the way to ending the 10-month lockout - US financial press
MPC Louisiana refinery [578K bpd] had an explosion and fire; the cause of the incident has not yet been disclosed; officials have given the all-clear sign related to the refinery - US press
5.HK Reports FY21 Adj pretax $21.9B v $12.1B y/y, Adj Rev $50.09B v $50.4B y/y; to buyback $1.0B in shares
TUES 2/22
(RU) Reportedly Russia may recognize Ukranian Separatist claims over more land than already recognized - press
VOW3.DE Notes it is in advanced discussions with Porsche Automobil Holding SE regarding a potential IPO of Porsche AG
*(DE) GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 98.9 V 96.5E (2nd straight improvement)
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Ukraine does not have a right to sovereignty
(RU) Russia Deputy Foreign Min Andrey Rudenko: Russia recognized the separatists within the border they perform their duties and jurisdiction in
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Russia's decision is serious breach of international law; No certification of Nord Stream 2 can occur at this time - statement on Russia-Ukraine situation
HD Reports Q4 $3.21 v $3.20e, Rev $35.7B v $34.6Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 15.2% to $1.90 from $1.65 (indicated yield 2.19%)
M Reports Q4 $2.45 v $2.00e, Rev $8.66B v $8.45Be; Completes business review and will NOT separate digital assets; New $2B share repurchase program authorized; Raises Quarterly dividend 5% to $0.1575 from $0.15 (indicated yield 2.45%);
TGNA Confirms to be acquired by Standard General L.P. for $24.00/shr in $5.4B cash deal
EXPD Reports Q4 $2.66 v $2.02e, Rev $5.40B v $4.26Be
(US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index: +15.9 v -16.2 prior
*(US) FEB PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.5 V 56.0E
*(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 1 V 10E
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 110.5 V 110.0E
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: A full invasion of Ukraine must be prevented; We are in a position to decide on further sanctions if there will actually be a complete military invasion of Ukraine by Russia
PANW Reports Q2 $1.74 v $1.65e, Rev $1.32B v $1.28Be
(US) Sec of State Blinken: Cancels meeting with Russia's Lavrov following invasion of Ukraine
*(NZ) RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) BY 25BPS TO 1.00%; AS EXPECTED
992.HK Reports Q3 Net $640M v $395M y/y, Rev $20.1B v $17.3B y/y
WEDS 2/23
(AT) ECB’s Holzmann (Austria): It is possible for ECB to hike rates before ending conventional QE program; Council should consider two rate hikes in 2022
BN.FR Reports FY21 Net €1.92B v €1.96B y/y, Recurring Op €3.34B v €3.32B y/y, Rev €24.3B v €23.6B y/y; Local First implementation on track; Europe transformation completed
STLA Reports FY21 Net €13.4B v €4.79B y/y, Adj EBIT €18.0B v €9.22B y/y; Rev €152.1B v €47.7B y/y
(RU) TTN Research alert: on Feb 27th, Belarus will hold a constitutional referendum that includes a vote on end of 'nuclear-free status' to make it legal to host Russian nuclear weapons
MUV2.DE CEO: Nord Stream 2 pipeline insurance contract has been canceled - conf call comments
*(EU) EURO ZONE JAN FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.1%E (record high); CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E
TEN To be acquired by Apollo Funds for $20.00/shr in cash valued at $7.1B
(UR) US officials reportedly have given intel to Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy that indicates Russia is preparing to conduct a full-scale invasion within 48 hours - Newsweek
(ES) ECB’s de Cos (Spain): Inflation spike is largely unexpected and lasting longer than expected
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 19th: 497.8K total units, +32% y/y
(UR) US Sec of State Blinken: Believes Russia will invade Ukraine before night ends - NBC News
*(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE AT 1.25%; AS EXPECTED
BRENT OIL PRICE MOVES ABOVE $100/BARREL (1st time since 2014)
(RU) US officials: Sanctions will shock Russian financial system, hit the markets and hobble industry and weigh on growth - US financial press
THRS 2/24
ABI.BE Reports Q4 $0.74 v $0.84e, adj EBITDA $4.88B v $4.80Be, Rev $14.2B v $13.7Be
(CN) China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying: Russian forces in Ukraine is not an invasion as described by some foreign media
(RU) Reportedly UK PM Johnson is pushing for Russia to be removed from the SWIFT payment system – press
(RU) RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN: WHAT IS HAPPENING IS FORCED MEASURE; WEST REFUSED TO GIVE GROUND ON RUSSIA'S SECURITY DEMANDS - comments after meeting with Russian businessmen
(UK) UK to freeze VTB Bank assets, immediately; To impose sanctions on over 100 Russian individuals and entities; Confirms calling on expulsion from SWIFT payment system
(UR) Pres Biden tweets: G7 leaders agreed to move forward with devastating sanctions packages against Russia
(RU) Pres Biden: Russian military began brutal attack; Pres Putin is a the aggressor, rejected diplomacy - press conf on Ukraine-Russia conflict
(EU) European leaders to impose sanctions on Russian financial sectors, visa policy, energy, transport and impose export controls - statement
COIN Reports Q4 $3.32 v $1.95e, Rev $2.49B v $1.81Be
DELL Reports Q4 $1.72 v $1.95e, Rev $28.0B v $27.4Be; Declares initial quarterly div $0.33/shr, expects FY23 Dividends of ~$1.0B
FRI 2/25
BAS.DE Reports Q4 Net €898M v €1.06B y/y, adj EBIT €1.23B v €1.4Be, Rev €19.8B v €18.5Be
(RU) Russia govt said to be preparing its own sanctions list to hit back at the West - press
(UR) Adviser to Ukraine President Podolyak: If Moscow says they are ready to talk, including on neutral status, we are not afraid of this; We want peace
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Ukraine neutrality move is move 'toward positive'; Expectations of Kyiv remain the same; Russia does not change its position like a girlECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist) said to see ECB Staff Projection to significant raise the 2022 inflation outlook but would still see it below the ECB target in the medium term - press
(UR) UKRAINE PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY CALLS FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN - PRESS
ABC AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson approve Opioid settlement agreement; Settlement will provide thousands of communities across US with up to ~$19.5B over 18 years
(RU) Russia President Putin said to be willing to conduct high-level negotiations with Ukraine - Chinese press
(EU) EU said to be planning to sanction personally Russia Pres Putin and Russia Foreign Min Lavrov; To freeze their assets - FT
(US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.0%E
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $1.08B, +41.6% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $567.2M, +76.4% y/y
(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -5.7% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -9.1% V -1.8%E
(RU) German Finance Minister: We are open to cutting Russia off SWIFT

Specter of Russian invasion continues to loom over markets

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Specter of Russian invasion continues to loom over markets

2022-02-18T16:16:06.24

Trading this week was mired by headlines surrounding a mounting crisis on the Ukraine border. Risk appetite swung from on to off on several occasions depending on what was being reported. Sentiment would improve when both sides would allude to further diplomacy, only to about-face when Western leaders would repeat an invasion was still likely imminent, while separate Russian press reports of flare ups in Eastern Ukraine were viewed by Western officials as a potential pretext for Russian action. The US Secretary of State and Russian Foreign Minister agreed to meet late next week, but the situation remained tenuous heading into a weekend where both the Olympics and joint Russian/Belarus military drills are set to come to a close. Early in the week the price of crude oil surged on worries that war between Ukraine and Russia could prolong elevated inflation in developed economies by disrupting supplies of important commodities. Late in the week oil prices backed off on growing speculation that Iran and Western powers are nearing a nuclear accord that could bring Iranian barrels back onto the market.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes reminded investors that officials at their January meeting discussed an accelerated timetable for raising interest rates amid greater discomfort with high inflation. Regardless investors appeared to lean dovish by default because the minutes did little to communicate the minority argument for a 50bps move that has been presented since the release of January CPI figures. Fed speak also moderated a bit as officials other than Bullard offered a bit more moderate view on frontloading rate hikes, while unanimously signaling they remained on board for a March liftoff. Futures markets saw the odds of a 50 bps hike shrink back below 50% while safe haven flows kept an underlying bid in US Treasury markets. Growth stocks continued to struggle with several high profile swoons seen in highly trafficked technology names after their earnings reports. For the week, the S&P lost 1.6%, the DJIA dropped 1.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%.

In corporate news this week, Deere raised its guidance after a strong Q1 and said it expects demand for farm and construction equipment to continue benefiting from strong fundamentals. Marriott reported above consensus on its top and bottom line, noting new bookings across customer segments have rebounded to pre-Omicron levels. AirBNB posted a beat on earnings and guidance, as the lodging company saw its third consecutive quarter of double-digit booking increases.

Intel agreed to acquire Tower Semiconductor in a $6B deal as the tech giants continues its effort to expand its manufacturing capacity. Monster Beverage and Constellation Brands were said to be near an $85B merger that could dramatically revamp the beverage landscape. PE firm Madison Dearborn said it would buy MoneyGram for $1.8B in all-cash deal. Blackstone announced a €21B recapitalization of its pan-European last mile logistics firm Mileway, with the large majority of capital for the move coming from existing investors. GM said it would resume production of Bolt EV and EUV models at its Orion Township facility in April.


SUN 2/13
JGB (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ): There were no takers in 5-10-year JGB Fixed-Rate buying operation
(CA) Ambassador Bridge has been fully reopened after police clear out protests - press
MON 2/14
(RU) Belarus Pres Lukashenko: Nobody plans to fight Ukraine
(RU) Russia reportedly continues to analyse US and NATO positions on security proposals; To continue a dialogue - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: President Putin to meet his Foreign and Defense Ministers on Monday (Feb 14th)
(US) Fed's George (FOMC voter, hawk): No need for Fed to raise rates outside of scheduled meetings
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Can see a way forward for talks with US and NATO; Will propose continuing our diplomatic work
DFS Reportedly to partner with Buy It Mobility Networks to allow consumers to pay directly from checking accounts without cards - press
TUES 2/15
(CN) China President Xi said to write that China will strengthen its legislation related to national security, to further improve anti-foreign sanction laws
BX Announces €21B recapitalization of pan-European last mile logistics firm Mileway; “Go-shop” process to commence immediately
(RU) Russian forces said to be conducting military drills across almost all military districts and fleets; Some drills said to be concluded - Russian press
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) said to begin testing of the digital ruble; CBR and Finance Ministry failed to reach an agreement on crypto - press
TSEM Confirms to be acquired by Intel for $53/shr in ~$5.4B all-cash deal; Deal expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS
2330.TW Said to increase planned investment in Japanese plant to ~$8.7B (prior $7B) as Denso joined TSMC/Sony project - Nikkei
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.6%E
(DE) GERMANY FEB ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -8.1 V -6.5E V -10.2 PRIOR; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 54.3 V 55.0E
MAR Reports Q4 $1.30 v $1.02e, Rev $4.45B v $3.86Be; Notes new bookings across customer segments have rebounded to pre-Omicron levels
(RU) Russian forces reportedly plan drills with hypersonic missiles in the Mediterranean Sea - Russian press
*(US) FEB EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 3.1 V 12.0E
*(US) JAN PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 1.0% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 9.7% V 9.1%E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +4.2% v +4.1% prior
(US) Trucks reportedly now leave Alberta town and end US-Canada border blockage - press
(EU) ECB's Villeroy (France): Guidance should have a shorter horizon amid uncertainties
(US) Pres Biden: US will be prepared no matter what happens in Ukraine; US remains ready to engage in diplomacy with Russia; Will respond decisively to Russian invasion
ABNB Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.05e, Rev $1.54B v $1.46Be; Impact of Omicron has quickly dissipated
WEDS 2/16
HEIA.NL CEO: I’ve never seen inflation like it, not even close; Across the board we are faced with crazy increases - post earnings comments
*(UK) JAN CPI M/M: -0.1% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.4%E (6th month above target and highest annual pace since Mar 1992)
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Remain committed to Minsk peace agreements as the solution for Donbas; NATO claims that no Russia troop pullback yet are wrong
SHOP Reports Q4 $1.36 v $1.33e, Rev $1.38B v $1.34Be; To consolidate fulfillment network to larger facilitates, to operate more fulfillment centers themselves
(LT) ECB's Kazaks (Latvia, hawk): Interest rate hike is quite likely this year; March meeting is unlikely to offer policy blueprint
GOOGL Reportedly plans to adopt new privacy restrictions to curtail tracking across apps on Android smartphones - US financial press
*(US) JAN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 3.8% V 2.0%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 3.3% V 0.9%E
(US) Sec of State Blinken: We see no evidence of a Russia pullback from Ukraine border; We continue to see units moving towards the border, not away from it
*(US) JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.4% V 0.5%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 77.6% V 76.8%E
DIS Launches new business to develop residential communities called 'Storyliving'
*(US) FEB NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 82 V 82E
(US) Fed’s Harker (voter): Wants 25bps in March hike not 50bps
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 12th: 504.5K total units, +5% y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.5% from 0.7%
(US) TREASURY $19B 20-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 2.396% v 2.065% prior, BID-TO-COVER 2.44 v 2.34 PRIOR AND 2.29 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
NVDA Reports Q4 $1.32 v $1.22e, Rev $7.64B v $7.43Be; Guides Q1 very strong; Expects to announce many new products, applications and partners for NVIDIA computing
(UR) Ukraine forces said to have fired on Luhansk People’s Republic (Russian backed separatists) in several places with mortars, according to the separatists - press
THURS 2/17
AIR.FR Reports FY21 adj Net +€4.21B v -€1.13B y/y, Adj EBIT €4.87B v €1.71B y/y, Rev €52.1B v €49.4B y/y; raises 2021 dividend to €1.50/share v nil y/y
NESN.CH Reports FY21 (CHF) Net 16.9B v 12.3Be, Op 15.1B v 14.9B y/y, Rev 87.1B v 86.9Be; Confirms to buy back CHF10B in shares in 2022
KER.FR Reports FY21 Net €3.18B v €2.15B y/y, EBITDA €6.47B v €4.57B y/y, Rev €17.6B v €13.1B y/y; Sees momentum to continue in 2022
(UR) Ukrainian military official: Russian occupying forces fired on village in Luhansk region; No injuries were caused - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Situation in Donbas region is getting more tense; NATO waging information aggression
WMT Reports Q4 $1.53 v $1.50e, Rev $152.9B v $151.4Be; Announces share buyback of at least $10B in FY23 (2.7% of market cap); Notes navigated higher supply chain costs well
(RU) US envoy to UN Thomas-Greenfield: Evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving towards an 'imminent invasion'; This is a crucial moment
MU Reportedly notified customers that NAND flash chip contract prices to rise 17-18% v 15%e, as spot prices rose 25% - Taiwanese price
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 248K V 218KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.593M V 1.60ME
*(US) JAN HOUSING STARTS: 1.638M V 1.695ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.9M V 1.750ME
*(US) FEB PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 16.0 V 20.0E
(US) Pres Biden: There is reason to believe Russia is involved in false flag operations; Probability of Russian invasion is very high
(US) Pres Biden reportedly to issue executive order on regulating crypto next week - Yahoo Finance
(RU) US said to accept holding talks with Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov late next week [specific day not disclosed] - US financial press
FRI 2/18
ENI.IT Reports Q4 adj Net €2.11B v €1.91Be, adj Op €3.81B v €3.55Be, Rev €26.8B v €11.9B y/y
(RU) Russia to conduct strategic deterrence drills on Sat, Feb 19th; President Putin to monitor - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Breaches of cease-fire arrangement in Donbas is potentially very dangerous
DE Reports Q1 $2.92 v $2.28e, Rev (equipment ops) $8.53B v $8.09Be
OPEC+ reportedly would seek to bring Iran into oil supply agreement bringing 1.3M bpd onto market if nuclear deal is reached - financial press
(RU) Donbas separatists leader Pushilin announces evacuation of Eastern Ukraine residents to Russia; To commence as soon as today
(DE) Germany Foreign Min Baerbock: Germany is ready to pay high economic price for unprecedented sanctions on Russia
(US) JAN EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.50M V 6.10ME
F Said to have previously considered spinning off EV and or traditional business – press
GE Discloses supply chain headwinds may continue to partially mask the company's 'significant progress' across its businesses; May 'pressure' growth, profit and FCF through Q1 and H1 - investor letter
(EU) ECB officials reportedly are 'edging toward' rate hike in 2022 to address inflation – press
(US) Fed's Williams (FOMC voter): Does not see compelling argument for a big first rate increase - Q&A with reporters
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 645 v 635 w/w (+1.6% w/w) (Rises for 8th straight week in a row)