Sunday, September 18, 2022

Aug CPI and FedEx Preannouncement Present Challenging Environment for Investors

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Aug CPI and FedEx Preannouncement Present Challenging Environment for Investors

9/16/2022 4:02:15 PM

- Trade began this week auspiciously enough, with equity markets and most risk assets holding on to momentum that built late last week. Sentiment was being helped in large part by the recent retreat in market-based inflation expectations into a key US inflation report that was expected to show the first m/m decline in headline consumer prices since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. To the markets chagrin, though, Tuesday’s August CPI reading caught investors well offsides with a significantly hotter than expected print. The core index re-accelerated to a gain of 0.6%, driven by shelter costs. The increase in the owners’ equivalent rent index climbed 0.71%, which is its largest monthly gain of the cycle to date. Worryingly, the upside pressures were broad-based as medical care services, car insurance/maintenance, and food service prices all came in well above expectations. Markets reacted swiftly and convincingly to what some were calling a game-changer of an inflation report. The S&P fell back below 4K, the Dow plunged 1,200 points, Treasury yields jumped led by a surge in shorter rates, and futures markets immediately began to price in the prospects of an even more aggressive Federal Reserve, including perhaps a 100 bps hike at next week’s FOMC announcement. Importantly, March 2023 futures markets started to price in small odds that the fed funds rate could reach 5% next year, surpassing even the most hawkish Fed officials' forecasts to this point.
- As the week progressed, the pall cast by the August CPI never really dissipated, but also opened up a growing debate surrounding two competing inflation narratives. High-profile corporate preannouncements headlined by FedEx were married with multiple mixed real-time economic readings that suggested growing forces of deflation have taken hold in parts of the economy. Worries of a hard landing in the US and a deep global recession grew, leading to calls for the Fed to take some pressure off the brake. Some argued the economy had already broke hard and instead of focusing on the CPI the Fed would be better served to listen to corporate signals while also accounting for the lag with which the economy starts to feel the full brunt of changes in monetary policy. Others argued a stubbornly strong US labor market as exhibited by low weekly claims and rising incidences of labor strife like this week's near miss of a national rail strike will only keep pressure on inflation and the Federal Reserve to rein in demand. Regardless, each view resulted in stocks and risk assets suffering. Treasury curves saw spreads move further into inversion territory while the US 2-year yield reached the highest level since Oct 2007. The US dollar continued to gobble up safe haven flows, pushing USD/CNY above the 7 handle for the first time in two years. Gold prices slumped to levels not seen in two years, as well. For the week the S&P fell 4.8%, the Dow lost 4.1% and the NASDAQ gave back 5.5%.
- In corporate news this week, FedEx shares dropped almost 20% after preannouncing Q1 will come in well below estimates amid a downturn in shipping volumes that ‘accelerated into the final weeks of the quarter,’ a surprising announcement that led to a round of analyst downgrades. Major chemical manufacturers also cut their outlooks, with Eastman noting demand has slowed more than expected in Aug and Sep amid higher costs, while Huntsman was impacted by high energy costs in Europe and Dow noted continued logistics constraints. Metals names also gave some preliminary quarterly outlooks, with both Steel Dynamics and Nucor seeing considerably lower steel operations profits.
- Bank CEOs opined on a wide variety of subjects at several investor conferences this week, with American Express saying they feel 'even better' about their multi-year outlook and JPMorgan adding they see this quarter shaping up to be a solid one for their markets business. Bank of America said their data shows consumer spending rose 10% in Aug, though Citi said it has begun to see a slowdown in global growth amid a shift from goods. A slew of diverse business from Uber to Microship to AT&T also spoke positively about the current business environment.

SUN 9/11
(UR) Ukraine army chief Zaluzhniy: In the Kharkiv direction, our forces began to advance not only to the south and east, but also to the north; Ukrainian forces are 50 kilometers away from reaching the state border with Russia
(EU) ECB governors reportedly see rising risk that they will have to raise key interest rate to 2% to curb inflation; Some members prepare for restrictive policy - press
(DE) ECB's Nagel (Germany, hawk): ECB will need to take more clear steps on rates if inflation doesn't ease; Inflation may peak above 10% in Dec 2022 and may stay above 6% in 2023
(US) Expected that the US will expand the restrictions of semiconductor chip sales to China for chips used in AI and Chipmaking
(EU) EU's Sefcovic: EU has offered to reduce border controls on Northern Ireland; Hope new UK PM Truss ready to do a deal on post-Brexit trade arrangements in Northern Ireland - FT

MON 9/12
*(UK) JULY MONTHLY GDP M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; GDP 3M/3M: 0.0% V 0.1%E
ELUXB.SE Initiates a cost reduction program on the back of weaker-than-expected market demand and weak earnings in Q3; Market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far decreased at a significantly accelerated pace q/q
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor Arestovich: Ukrainian counteroffensive operation continues not only in the East, but also in the Kherson region in the South; The myth of the invincibility of the Russian army is broken
(US) Reportedly US freight railway workers halting shipment of some cargo to gain leverage ahead of this week's deadline to negotiate labor agreements - press
(DE) German IFO Institute raises 2022 CPI forecast from 6.8% range to 8.1% (consecutive raise); Now sees recession in 2023; Assumes that there will be sufficient gas available in winter; Energy prices should start falling again from spring 2023 at the latest
(US) NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: August one year ahead expected inflation 5.7% v 6.2% m/m
(US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report; End 2022/2023 US Stocks Soybeans: 200M bu v 240Me bu
AXP Exec: We feel 'even better' about our multi-year outlook we provided back in January - Barclays conf
NXPI Exec: Since our earnings call we have NOT seen any real change in our overall business trends - GS conf
BAC CEO: Seeing consumer spending up 10% in Aug, continues to spend - Barclays conf comments
ORCL Reports Q1 $1.03 v $1.07e, Rev $11.4B v $11.5Be
(JP) Japan Aug PPI (CGPI) M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 9.0% v 8.6%e

TUES 9/13
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: By end-2023, Germany will be able to import all the gas that we need using LNG terminals; Power-price cap to be implemented with great speed; Also looking at introducing cap on gas prices
(EU) Daily 3-month Euribor Fixing: 1.000% v 0.988% prior (highest since Feb 2012)
(CN) China July smartphone shipments at 19.1M -31.2% y/y v +9.1% prior; YTD smartphone shipments 152.9M -23% y/y - CAICT
EMN Cuts Q3 Adj ~$2.00 v $2.60e (prior EPS 'solid growth' v $2.46 y/y), as demand has slowed more than expected in Aug and Sep as well as higher than expected costs
CNM Reports Q2 $0.67 v $0.53e, Rev $1.86B v $1.72Be; Raises FY22 outlook
(LT) ECB's Simkus (Lithuania): See at least a 50bps rate increase in Oct; Terminal rate not important at this point
*(US) AUG CPI M/M: +0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 8.3% V 8.1%E (annual pace matches higher end of analysts' expectations, but records second straight decline)
(US) Atlanta Fed Aug Sticky-CPI annualized 7.7% v 5.4% m/m, core 7.5% v 5.2% m/m
JPM Exec: Q3 shaping up to be a solid quarter for markets business, Expects Q3 trading revenue up 5% - Barclays conf comments
*(US) TREASURY $18B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 3.511% V 3.115% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.42 V 2.44 PRIOR AND 2.37 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(TW) Reportedly US is in early stage talks on sanctions aimed at deterring China from invading Taiwan; Taiwan is pushing EU to prepare potential sanctions package against China - press
C Exec: Starting to see slowdown in global economic growth; Inflation has caused consumer demand to shift from goods
SBUX Raises targets for FY23-'25 adj EPS growth to +15-20% (prior: +10-12%) - investor day

WEDS 9/14
*(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) CONDUCTS RATE CHECK PREPPING FOR CURRENCY INTERVENTION - NIKKEI
*(UK) AUG CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 9.9% V 10.0%E (13th month above target but moves off recent 40-year highs)
(EU) EU Commission Von der Leyen: Targets €140B from windfall taxes on energy companies; Energy market is not functioning anymore, have to decouple gas and electricity prices; Having discussions on price caps; Russia sanctions are here to stay - State of the Union address
IEA Monthly Oil Report (OMR); US poised to replace Russia as Europe’s top crude supplier; Trims oil demand forecast amid China lockdowns and slowing growth in OECD countries
JNJ Affirms FY22 outlook; Announces $5B share buyback (1.2% of market cap)
ASH Affirms FY22 outlook; Notes robust demand continues in Q4 as financial result in July and Aug above expectations; SEP order book strong; Targets FY26 Rev >$3.2B, EBITDA $900M - investor slides
NUE Cuts Q3 $6.30-6.40 v $7.97e (prior to decrease q/q), due to considerably lower steel mills earnings q/q
TD Exec: Expect some moderation in loan growth - Barclays investor conf comments
WMT Walmart-backed fintech co to begin offering banking for shoppers and employees - press
*(US) AUG PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 8.7% V 8.8%E (second straight negative M/M print and decline in annual pace)
DOW Cuts Q3 Rev ~$600M lower, implies $13.7-14.2B v $14.2Be (prior $14.3-14.8B) - conf comments
MRNA Moderna open to supplying COVID vaccines to China after holding talks - press citing CEO
(US) FDA and NIH Launch Public-Private Partnership for Rare Neurodegenerative Diseases; Partnership is a key component of FDA's Action Plan announced in June
(CN) Some major China State-run banks said to be cutting personal deposit rates beginning from Thurs, Sept 15th **Note: 1st such cut the since 2015) - Chinese press
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Sep 10th: 464K total units, -0.9% y/y
ARNC Cuts FY22 outlook: Rev $9.2-9.5B v $9.74Be (prior $9.6-10B); reflects the impact of operational issues and the combination of demand declines and higher unhedged energy costs in Europe
(CN) Senate Foreign Relations Committee approves Taiwan legislation - press
*(AU) AUSTRALIA AUG EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 33.5K V 35.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.5% V 3.4%E

THURS 9/15
HMB.SE Reports Q3 (SEK) Rev 57.5B v 58.1Be; Notes Q3 got off to a weak start, better start for autumn collections than last year
*(US) PRESIDENT BIDEN ANNOUNCES TENTATIVE RAILWAY LABOR AGREEMENT
US consumer watchdog CFPB plans to regulate 'buy-now, pay-later' companies; Notes already seeing deterioration in credit performance on BNPL loans - press
ADBE Reports Q3 $3.40 v $3.33e, Rev $4.43B v $4.43Be
*(US) AUG ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: +0.3% V -0.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E
ADBE Confirms to acquire Figma for $20B in nearly half cash-half stock deal; To grant 6M additional restricted stock units to Figma; Cash part to be financed through cash on hand and, if necessary, a term loan
*(US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -1.5 V -12.9E; New Orders: +3.7 v -29.6 prior; Notes sharp rebound also in shipments
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 213K V 227KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.403M V 1.48ME
*(US) SEPT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: -9.9 V +2.3E
STLD Reports prelim Q3 adj $5.33-5.37* v $4.86e, earnings significantly lower than Q2 due to lower flat rolled steel ops earnings
*(US) AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.2% V 0.0%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 80.0% V 80.2%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP to 0.5% from 1.3% prior
SMG CEO: Sees more job cuts as business activity slows and cash is dwindling - press
(US) Los Angleles Port Chief Gene Seroka: Port imports fall 12% to ~404K units y/y
(US) FTC announces it plans to target 'unfair competition that harms gig workers'
FDX Cuts Q1 $3.44 v $5.06e, Rev $23.2B v $23.7Be; Withdraws FY earnings outlook, amid 'global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter'
NCR To Separate Into Two Independent, Industry-leading Companies (**Reminder: had been in PE talks with Veritas but financing was said to be an issue)
*(CN) CHINA AUG RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 5.4% V 3.2%E; YTD Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.2%E

FRI 9/16
ROSN.RU (DE) Germany Econ Ministry announces Rosneft's German refinery unit and its owned oil refineries is now under trusteeship of Federal Network Agency
(EU) EU27 Aug New Car Registrations: +4.4% v -10.4% prior (1st increase in 14 months)
*(UK) AUG RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: -1.6% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: -5.0% V -3.5%E
(CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao: China will impose sanctions on Raytheon's CEO and Chairman Gregory Haye and Boeing Defense, Space & Security President and CEO Ted Colbert; China opposes US arms sales to Taiwan and urges US to stop; It violates 'One China' principle
(DE) ECB's Nagel (Germany, hawk): ECB will continue to raise rates to tame inflation
*(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 59.5 V 60.0E
(IQ) Oil exports from Iraq's Basra port reportedly halted due to spill; Spill reportedly is 'huge' and could take over a week to contain - press

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Risk assets rise as traders anticipate effects from tighter monetary policy

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Risk assets rise as traders anticipate effects from tighter monetary policy

9/9/2022 4:13:23 PM

US markets came out of the Labor Day holiday break in much the same fashion they finished up the previous week. The S&P dipped below 3,900 for the first time since mid-July as global bond prices continued to move lower. Treasury yields initially tracked higher amid a surge in corporate issuance while also anticipating a significant ECB rate hike announcement on Wednesday. The US dollar tracked to fresh multi-decade highs and remained a key barometer for overall risk appetite. The Greenback’s strength was led by a breakout in USD/JPY through what had been seen as a key technical level of 1.40. Also the Pound fell to levels not seen since the 1980’s as PM Truss took the reins and her new government released details of plans to safeguard Brits and their economy from soaring energy costs, even as the nation mourned the loss of Queen Elizabeth. Overall markets remained extremely jittery amid low trading volumes, hawkish central bank rhetoric, ongoing Covid lockdowns in China, and consternation around Russia’s increasingly aggressive stance on Ukraine and against the West.

Sentiment did seem to shift though after the ECB announced its expected 75 basis point rate hike, while indicating more tightening is to come at the next several meetings. Investors, in general, are becoming more comfortable with blunt central bank signaling. Chairman Powell and others at the Fed continued to emphasize the basic message from last month’s Jackson Hole speech. Namely, the job on inflation was not anywhere near done yet, and they will remain very wary of reversing course too soon. Broad declines in commodity prices, oil in particular, may have buoyed demand for stocks, as did stabilization in both rates and the US dollar. Break even spreads narrowed along with other market based measures of inflation expectations, providing hope that markets were acclimating to central banks’ medicine, and even caused some to talk about brewing disinflationary forces. Fridays’ softer than expected Chinese CPI report provided further legs to that disinflation narrative. Risk assets largely closed out the week on a solid upswing. Commodity and crypto markets saw notable buying interest, headlined by WTI crude back above $86 and bitcoin retaking $20K. For the week, the S&P was up 3.6%, the DJIA gained 2.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 4.1%.

In corporate news, we saw further M&A moves in the healthcare sector, as CVS announced it would put down $8B to acquire homecare provider Signify Health, beating out Amazon, among other bidders. Investors stocked up on shares of Kroger on Friday after it beat estimates and raised guidance, as it managed to slightly improve margins and said that supply chains were showing signs of improvement. A common theme at investor conferences this week was a stay-the-course attitude, with many companies affirming outlooks while also growing somewhat reluctant to raise prices substantially amid customer pushback, including Apple, who said it would maintain its price point for the new iPhone models. Some airline executives were bullish, with United raising its revenue guidance and Delta noting travel demand remains strong. Altria’s Juul unit reached a multi-state settlement to pay $439M to address marketing practices and underage use of its tobacco products.






SUN 9/4
(UK) PM race front runner Truss: Will act immediately on bills and energy supply; Plans to make an announcement within one week of taking office; Notes she greatly believes in the independence of Bank of England (BOE)
GAZP.RU Notes Siemens can't repair the engine unit for Nord Stream 1 at its Montreal plant, as Canada considers gas turbines as a dual-use facility that is subject to sanctions - Telegram statement
(CN) Shanghai’s major container port of Yangshan has suspended terminal operation as Super Typhoon Hinnamnor (equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane) approaching - press
*OPEC+ SAID TO LIKELY LEAVE OUTPUT UNCHANGED AT TOMORROW'S SEPT 5TH MEETING (AS SPECULATED); RUSSIA SIGNALS OPPOSITION TO OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUT - US FINANCIAL PRESS
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Germany plans to completely stop importing Russian gas in Dec 2022; Will get through this winter
USD/JPY Tests 140.00 level for the first time since 1998 (Sept 1)
*(CN) CHINA AUG CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 55.0 V 54.0E (3rd consecutive expansion)
MON 9/5
(US) Biden administration reportedly considering moves that would restrict US investment in Chinese tech firms; US Commerce department may further restrict what can be sold - press
(CN) China State Planner (NDRC) official Yang Yinkai: Q3 is crucial for rolling of China policy measures and recovery from COVID; Will appropriately step up support for domestic economy
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG FINAL SERVICES PMI: 49.8 V 50.2E (1st contraction in 17 months and lowest print since Mar 2021)
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS FX RRR FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS BY 200BPS TO 6.0%; Effective Sept 15th
*(UK) RESULT OF CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP VOTE: LIZ TRUSS ELECTED AS PARTY LEADER (AS EXPECTED); TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER AFTER JOHNSON FORMALLY STEPS DOWN ON TUES, SEPT 6TH
OPEC+ JMMC recommends 100Kbpd oil output cut for Oct (as speculated, first group-wide curb since 2020) - press
(UK) Follow Up: PM-elect Truss gives details on UK Energy bills: Will provide £130B to freeze energy bills below £2.0K; Plans govt guaranteed loans to fund 18-month energy price freeze
GAZP.RU CEO: Reiterates Nord Stream 1 will not be launched until Siemens Energy repairs equipment
TUES 9/6
EQNR Exec: European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5T - press
ADT Confirms partnership with State Farm and Google; State Farm confirms plan to invest $1.2B in ADT (about 15% stake) at $9.00/shr
*(US) AUG ISM SERVICES INDEX: 56.9 V 55.4E; New Orders 61.8 v 59.9 prior
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: 4.9% v -2.9% prior
MO Juul unit reaches $439M multi-state settlement over marketing practices and underage use - press
(EU) Europe's largest aluminum smelter Dunkerque to reduce output next week by 22% due to energy costs - press
(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to daily bond buying operation: Increases 5-10 year purchase amounts by ¥50B
*(CN) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE: $79.4B V $92.7BE
WEDS 9/7
(UK) New UK PM Truss allies said to say she will not activate the emergency Article 16 override provisions in the Northern Ireland protocol in the coming weeks - FT
*(UK) AUG HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.4% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 11.5% V 11.8% PRIOR
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Russia lost nothing, will lose nothing nothing in Ukraine war; Western sanctions are danger for the whole world; Problems with food will intensify - Eastern economic forum speech
*(RU) RUSSIA PRES PUTIN: NORD STREAM 1 IS PRACTICALLY SHUT DOWN; PROPOSED CAP ON RUSSIA GAS PRICES ARE STUPID; WILL LEAD TO PRICE INCREASES
MAERSKB.DK Provides Sept market update: Sees signs of improvement in European freight schedules, especially in North Europe; Expect to have exceeded the turning point
*(RU) RUSSIA PRES PUTIN: WILL NOT SUPPLY OIL, FUEL, GAS IF PRICE CAPS ARE INTRODUCED; WILL NOT STICK TO OIL AND GAS CONTRACTS IF PRICES ARE CAPPED
(UK) BOE members speaking at annual report conference: BOE Mann states forceful Bank Rate moves opens door for policy hold or reversal later
(US) US reportedly told Israel that Iran nuclear deal is off the table, unlikely to be reached soon - press
UAL Raises Q3 Rev +12% v Q3'19 (prior ~11%), Capacity -11% to -10% v Q3'19 (prior -11%), adj Op margin ~10.5% (prior ~10%), Narrows TRASM ~25% v Q3'19 (prior 24-26%), CASM-ex ~16% (prior 16-17%), Continues to see strong demand environment - filing
(EU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: Confirms to propose a cap on Russian gas prices; Looking at price cap for LNG; Also to propose a cap on revenues of companies producing electricity with low costs
ASO Reports Q2 $2.30 v $2.10e, Rev $1.69B v $1.71Be
(IR) IAEA's Grossi: Increasingly concerned by Iran's lack of cooperation; There has been no progress towards resolving issue of uranium particles found in Iran at three undeclared sites; Iran now has enough 60% enriched uranium to theoretically produce a nuclear weapon - IAEA quarterly report
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) RAISES INTEREST RATE BY 75BPS TO 3.25%; AS-EXPECTED; COUNCIL STILL JUDGES POLICY RATE WILL NEED TO RISE FURTHER GIVEN INFLATION OUTLOOK
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP to 1.4% from 2.6% prior
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Sep 3rd: 513K total units, +3.7% y/y
MKC Reports prelim Q3 $0.65 v $0.84e, Rev +3% y/y (+6% y/y cc); Cuts FY22 outlook; Broad pressure on consumers' cost of living from inflation has resulted in higher price elasticity
(JP) Japan July BoP Current Account: ¥229.0B v ¥759.0Be (Smallest on record for a July since 1985); Adj Current Account: -¥629.0B v +¥65.3Be [first deficit since Mar 2014]
THURS 9/8
TSM Reports Aug (NT$) Rev 218.1B, +59.0% y/y, +16.8% m/m; YTD Rev (NT$) 1.43T +44% y/y
(JP) Japan Top Currency Official Kanda: Agreed at MOF, BOJ and FSA meeting to watch markets with strong sense of urgency; Will not rule out any step, ready to take action in FX market; All options on the table, including FX intervention
(CN) Beijing to strengthen control of travelers from other provinces from Sept 10th to Oct 31st ahead of China's upcoming leadership Congress [starts on Oct 16th] - press
(HK) Macau says quarantine-free travel with Hong Kong is not possible now - press
FUN Reports YTD through Labor Day Rev $1.37B, in park per capita spending $61.11 (record high); Notes robust demand for 2023 season pass products
(UK) PM Truss: Confirms to limit typical household energy bills to £2,500/yr; Measure to last two years from Oct 2022; Introducing energy price guarantee which supersedes OFGEM price cap - Energy plan speech
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 222K V 235KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.473M V 1.438ME
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Set to raise interest rates again at next meetings to dampen demand - Prepared remarks
(US) Fed Chair Powell: The longer long run inflation remains above target the higher the cost; History cautions against prematurely loosening policy - Cato Institute conf comments
Aug Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: -4% M/M; +8.4% Y/Y
*(US) JULY CONSUMER CREDIT: $23.8B V $32.0BE
(KR) North Korea Leader Kim: Assembly has adopted law to declare country a Nuclear weapons state; North Korea will never relinquish nuclear arms under US threats
*(CN) CHINA AUG CPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8%E (fist negative M/M since May)
(JP) Follow Up: Meeting between BOJ Gov Kuroda and PM Kishida was on Domestic and overseas economic and market developments; PM Kishida had no specific requests
FRI 9/9
ASC.UK Issues FY22 Trading Statement: Profit is anticipated to be around the bottom end of company guidance; Notes sales in August were weaker than anticipated, slow start to Autumn/Winter shopping
(EU) ECB's Kazimir (Slovakia, hawk): Fresh outlook sees inflation in Euro Zone above 2% target in 2023 and 2024; Priority is to continue fiercely with normalization of monetary policy
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) POSTPONES INTEREST RATE DECISION BY 1 WEEK FROM SEPT 15TH TO SEPT 22ND FOLLOWING QUEEN'S PASSING AWAY
KR Reports Q2 $0.90 v $0.81e, Rev $34.6B v $34.4Be; Raises FY22 outlook; Authorizes $1B in share repurchases
*(CA) CANADA AUG NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: -39.7K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.4% V 5.0%E
(US) Q2 FINANCIAL ACCOUNT HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN NET WORTH: -$6.1T V -$0.544T PRIOR
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP to 1.3% from 1.4% prior

Monday, September 5, 2022

Headwinds grip markets again, capped by Russia gas supply antics, overshadowing a constructive jobs report

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Headwinds grip markets again, capped by Russia gas supply antics, overshadowing a constructive jobs report

9/2/2022 4:02:25 PM

After finding resistance at the declining 200-day moving averages in mid-August, US stock markets continued to backtrack heading into September. By mid-week indices had retraced nearly half way back to the June lows and were trading below their 100-day moving averages which many opined was typical bear market behavior. Chairman Powell’s blunt message from Jackson Hole continued to reverberate globally with expectations for ECB and BOE tightening ratcheting higher which in turn pushed interest rates up and propelled the US dollar to new two decade highs. The US 2-year yield topped 3.5% for first time in 15-year years and the benchmark 10-year climbed to 3.25%. Geopolitics continued to add to the wall of worry as well. New China Covid lockdowns were introduced while Taiwan tensions festered and the US imposed a new license requirement for the export of high end semiconductor chips. The Russian war in Ukraine showed no signs of cooling as Gazprom’s “maintenance” on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline continued to halt the flow of gas into Europe. Also, rhetoric picked up from both sides heading into a G-7 meeting where leaders were set to introduce a price cap on Russian oil. Adding to the ominous landscape were a slew of PMI readings in Asia and Europe suggesting economies there remained in contraction territory.

The August US employment report was encouraging on several fronts, resulting in a rebound in risk appetite on Friday after buyers emerged late in the previous (Sept 1st) session. Fed officials will likely be pleased with the moderation seen in wage growth and perhaps the uptick in the unemployment rate. Reassuringly though, that unemployment rise was accompanied by a 0.3% rise in the labor force participation rate, providing some reason to hope that rising supply can be at least part of the solution to the current supply/demand imbalance in the labor market. Nevertheless, the data is unlikely to alter the Fed’s message, namely it will remain singularly focused on bringing inflation back under control by lifting the funds rate towards or above 4% into next year. Friday also saw European natural gas prices continue to back away from the current cycle highs, which have been inversely correlated with risk assets of late. For the week, the S&P lost 3.3%, the DJIA was off 3%, and the Nasdaq dropped 4.2%.

In corporate news this week, Nvidia shares dropped after it disclosed the US set new imits on exports of two of its most advanced AI chips to China, which could cost the chipmaker $400M in potential sales in Q3. Seagate slashed its Q1 outlook amid weaker economic trends in Asia and more supply chain disruptions. Netflix reportedly is setting ad prices for its new ad-supported tier at levels substantially higher than other platforms, as the streaming giant aims to launch the new offering to customers on the first of November. FDA authorized next-generation Omicron-specific COVID boosters this week, as it plans to roll out a combined 175M doses from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech this fall. Royal Caribbean, in an industry-first, said it planned to use SpaceX's Starlink to provide high-speed internet onboard its full cruise fleet.


MON 8/29
European gas futures fell down 13% (most since Apr 2022) after Germany said its gas storage is filling up faster than planned ahead of winter
(DE) German Econ Min Habeck: Gas storage around 83%, we can wait for the market to calm down; Will not have a Lehman effect on gas market
(RU) Pro-Russian Telegram channels confirm Ukrainian counteroffensive in many areas of Kherson region; Notes there is a big risk of losing Kherson, many losses among Russian troops
(CZ) Czech Industry Min: Formally calls for EU emergency energy meeting for Fri, Sept 9th; Propose to cap prices of gas used for power generation
(EU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: EU preparing power market emergency intervention, working on structural reform of power market
*(US) AUG DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: -12.9 V -12.7E
(US) FDA reportedly to authorize next-generation COVID boosters this Weds; Plans to roll out a combined 175M doses of new boosters from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech - Politico
TUES 8/30
*(DE) GERMANY AUG CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.3% V 1.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 8.1% V 7.8% PRIOR (highest annual pace since 1963)
(CN) Sichuan and Chonqing provinces in China said to have resumed power for all industrial and business on Aug 30th - press
(IQ) Iraq State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO): Oil exports operations not affected by recent incidents; Have capacity to boost exports, can increase exports to Europe if asked
FSLR To invest up to $1.2B in scaling production of American-made responsible solar by 4.4 GW; To build new, 3.5 GW manufacturing facility in the US Southeast; expected to commence production in 2025
(CN) China's 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party said to be held on Oct 16th - press
BBY Reports Q2 $1.54 v $1.29e, Rev $10.3B v $10.2Be; Commences an enterprise-wide restructuring initiative; Maintains paying quarterly dividend at $0.88/shr
*(DE) GERMANY AUG PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8%E (matches highest annual pace seen this year and since start of the monthly statistic in 1963)
(US) Nevada reports Jul casino gaming Rev $1.32B, -3.2% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $774M, -2.4% y/y
*(US) JULY JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 11.239M V 10.375ME
(EU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: EU has reached average 80% gas storage target
(US) Joe Biden files papers to run for re-election in 2024 - press
V August US payments volume on a year-over-year basis was up 11%, flat with July, while Credit and Debit grew 17% and 7%, respectively, both up 1 point from July
RCL To use SpaceX's Starlink in an industry first to provide high-speed internet onboard full cruise fleet
HPQ Reports Q3 $1.04 v $1.04e, Rev $14.7B v $15.5Be; Cuts FY outlook
*(CN) CHINA AUG MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.4 V 49.2E (2nd straight contraction)
(JP) Japan PM Kishida: No change in stance to reduce dependence on nuclear; safety remains prerequisite for using nuclear power
WEDS 8/31
*(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 5.8% V 6.1%E
(CN) China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao: China opposes US Arizona governor's visit to Taiwan
*(DE) GERMANY AUG NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +28.0K V +28.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.5% V 5.4%E
*(IT) ITALY AUG PRELIMINARY CPI EU HARMONIZED Y/Y: 9.0% V 8.2%E (EARLY RELEASE)
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Early steps on energy security mean we will get through winter; Will take measures to ensure energy prices do not go through the roof - briefing on energy situation
BBBY Discloses it may offer, issue and sell shares of indeterminate amount - filing
(CN) China reportedly seeks to quicken process of expanding domestic demand; To attract more private investment - press
*(US) AUG ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +132K V +300KE; Notes job growth slowed for second-straight month in Aug
STX Cuts Q1 EPS meaningfully below $1.20 v $1.41e, Rev $2.0-2.2B v $2.60Be (prior $1.20, Rev $2.35-2.65B); Weaker economic trends in certain Asian regions have amplified customer inventory corrections and supply chain disruptions
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 27th: 512K total units, +1.4% y/y
COST Reports Aug total SSS +8.7% (ex-gas and FX); Q4 total SSS +10.4% (ex-gas and FX), Net Sales $70.8B v $61.4B y/y
NVDA US govt imposes a new license requirement, effective immediately, for any future export to China and Russia of A100 and H11 integrated circuits; May impact ability to complete its development of H100 and may require co to transition certain operations out of China - filing
NFLX Aims for Nov 1st launch of ad-supported service; Buyers say ad prices are substantially higher than most other platforms - press
(CN) Chengdu city, China [21M residents] announces lockdown; To conduct mass COVID testing from Sept 1-4th
THURS 9/1
(HK) Macau Aug Casino Rev (MOP) 2.2B v 0.4B prior; Y/Y -50.7% v -95.3% prior (-47.5%e)
(TW) Taiwan Defence Ministry: Shot down new 'unidentified' civilian drone in Kinmen offshore island [**Note: first reported it was Chinese drone]
*(ES) SPAIN AUG MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.9 V 48.5E (2nd consecutive contraction)
(TW) Taiwan Defense Ministry: China continues to strengthen its combat preparedness for an attack on Taiwan; China's drills have expanded beyond first island chain, aim is to stop foreign forces from interfering in attack on Taiwan
(EU) EU said to be looking at all possibilities to intervene in energy market, including energy price caps, windfall profit taxes and electricity demand reduction tools - press
*(IT) ITALY AUG MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.0 V 48.1E (2nd straight contraction and lowest reading since June 2020)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.6% V 6.6%E
(DK) Denmark Aug PMI Survey: 48.0 v 38.1 prior
(HK) Macau reportedly plans to gradually reopen the city to foreign travelers - press
(CN) China urges ships to return to ports as Super Typhoon Hinnamnor (equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane) approaching mainland China - press
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS RATE ON STANDING LENDING FACILITY (SLF) BY 10BPS, Effective Aug 15th (first cut since Jan 2022)
HRL Reports Q3 $0.40 v $0.41e, Rev $3.03B v $3.07Be; Cuts FY22 EPS, Raises Rev outlook; Expects elevated cost inflation to persist
*(US) Q2 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -4.1% V -4.3%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 10.2% V 10.5%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 232K V 248KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.438M V 1.44ME
*(US) AUG FINAL S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.5 V 51.3E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q3 GDP to 2.6% from 1.6% prior
AVGO Reports Q3 $9.73 v $9.62e, Rev $8.46B v $8.41Be
(IR) US said to call Iran response to the Nuclear talks 'not constructive', cites the US State Dept; Senior Biden administration official said to note negotiation parties appear to be moving backwards [no further details disclosed] - Politico
FRI 9/2
(DE) More German press reports circulating that Germany leans towards extending lifespan of its nuclear plants
UN FAO July World Food Price Index: 138.0 v 140.9 prior (5th straight decline)
(EU) G-7 said to back plan to introduce price cap on Russian oil and announce it this afternoon; To become effective Dec 5th, same day as EU embargo - FT
*(US) AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.7% V 3.5%E; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4% v 62.2%e
*(US) AUG CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +315K V +298KE
(US) AUG AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.3%E
Transport of gas to the Nord Stream pipeline has been completely halted after oil leakage was detected during routine maintenance works; No timeframe for restart of gas supply through the pipeline - Gazprom statement

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Market optimism dented by tough talk from central bankers

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Market optimism dented by tough talk from central bankers

8/26/2022 4:07:16 PM

Markets opened this week with stocks still under pressure after the S&P 500 failed to hold the 200-day moving average last week. Surging natural gas prices, a backup in bond yields, and a continued rally in the US dollar -- highlighted by the Euro’s move away from parity -- coincided with languishing equity enthusiasm. By mid-week, equity sentiment picked up, helped along by softer US economic readings which helped cap the rise in rates while providing optimism Chairman Powell could offer up something for the bulls in his much anticipated speech from Jackson Hole later in the week. Housing data in particular continued to show significant deceleration while July PCE saw the first m/m decline since April of 2020. Encouraging signals of out China helped turn around equity sentiment too. Chinese officials continued to talk up the idea of stimulating their economy while also providing marginal signs that their zero-Covid policy may be in the early stages of softening. Also US listed Chinese names surged late in the week after US and Chinese officials reached a long-awaited agreement on audit inspections, potentially allowing those securities to keep their dual listings.

Stocks rallied into the Fed Chair’s speech on Friday morning as investors largely looked past a chorus of Fed officials who continued to push back on the notion of a Fed pivot, and instead emphasizing that, if the data supports it, the Fed could pause once rates get into restrictive territory next year. Stocks swooned to new lows after Powell’s speech underscored the Fed is nowhere near done beating back inflation. He echoed his colleges in affirming rates still need to get into restrictive territory quickly and stay there for an extended period to bring inflation back in line, while importantly also acknowledging it will cause some pain for both businesses and households. Fed officials subsequently applauded his message, as well as perhaps tacitly embracing the stock market’s “painful” trading response. ECB hawks also came out in force on Friday to push more aggressive rate policy and QT for the euro zone. The long end of the US curve rallied while short rates ticked up and futures markets once again priced in better odds the Fed will raise by 75 bps at the September meeting. US indices closed out the week near the lows of the month and the US dollar was on the rise. For the week, the S&P lost 4%, the DJIA was off 4.2%, and the Nasdaq tumble 4.4%.

Retail and tech names were prominent in the corporate news this week. Macy’s shares rose after cutting forecasts as investors breathed a sigh of relief that results had not been worse. Gap stock climbed after posting an EPS beat amid improving sales trends, though elevated inventories remain a problem. After issuing an earnings warning two weeks ago, Nvidia posted both a top and bottom line miss as its decline in gaming revenue was larger than anticipated. Snowflake shares popped after reporting a big sales beat as its cloud services remained strong. Salesforce fell midweek despite announcing its “first ever” stock buyback program after trimming its FY outlook.

Twitter saw some weakness after a former security chief disclosed complaints of major security problems at the social media company. Intel signed an agreement with Brookfield to finance semiconductor factories in Arizona. Amazon was said to be among the bidders for healthcare platform Signify Health, amid other reports that the retail giant planned to shutter its own telehealth offerings. Deal talks between Seagen and Merck reportedly hit a snag amid disputes over pricing, following reports of a $200/shr offer back in early July.


SUN 8/21
World Health Organisation (WHO): New COVID cases have jumped by 15% and deaths by 35% globally in the last few weeks; More variants with such intense circulation will be seen in the coming days and doctors are noting increasing numbers of people who have been infected with BA.2 becoming infected again after four weeks by other variants
SGFY Amazon said to be among the bidders for Signify Health; UnitedHealth said to bid >$30/share for the co. [closing price at $21.20/share] - US financial press
(RU) UN permanent representative of Russia Gatilov: Russia believes that it will not work to end the war through negotiations and preparing for a protracted conflict - FT
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: CUTS BOTH 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR RATES (amounts different than expected)
USD/CNY (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.8198 v 6.8065 prior (weakest since Sept 2020)
MON 8/22
(DE) German Econ Min Habeck: Must expect Russia to further tighten gas supplies this winter, have a good chance to get through the winter without drastic energy measures
F Georgia jury delivers $1.7B verdict against Ford over wrongful death stemming from 2014 rollover crash involving the 2002 Ford Super Duty F-250 pickup - press
(EU) Reportedly senior EU officials see there will likely be a “crunch point” in Ukraine support in the fall or early winter, but EU is unlikely to step back from its commitment to Ukraine - Politico
(TW) Taiwan July Export Orders Y/Y: -1.9% v +6.2%e; M/M: -7.8%; Sees Aug export orders -3.7% to -0.9% Y/Y
EUR/USD Tests parity against US dollar for the first time since July 13th
ENI.IT Announces a significant gas discovery offshore Cyprus; Preliminary estimates indicate about 2.5TCF (trillion cubic feet) of gas in place
(EE) Estonia Foreign Ministry: The 8th package of EU sanctions should include a comprehensive embargo on the supply of energy resources from Russia, as well as finally separate all Russian banks from the SWIFT system
(CN) China reportedly plans CNY200B ($29.3B) in special loans to troubled developers - financial press
*(SA) SAUDI ENERGY MIN: OPEC+ MAY NEED TO TIGHTEN OUTPUT TO STABILIZE THE MARKET; THE OIL FUTURES 'DISCONNECT' MAY FORCE OPEC+ ACTION
PANW Reports Q4 $2.39 v $2.28e, Rev $1.55B v $1.54Be; Announces 3-for-1 stock split
USD/CNY (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.8523 v 6.8198 prior (weakest setting since late Aug 2020)
TUES 8/23
*(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.0 V 49.0E (2nd straight contraction and(lowest print since May 2020)
UNG *US NATURAL GAS FUTURES HIT $10 (1ST TIME SINCE 2008)
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.7 V 49.0E (2nd straight contraction)
*(UK) AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING: 46.0 V 51.0E (1st contraction in 27 months and lowest since May 2020)
M Reports Q2 $1.00 v $0.85e, Rev $5.60B v $5.48Be; Cuts outlook to incorporate risks related to increased macroeconomic pressures
DKS Reports Q2 $3.68 v $3.52e, Rev $3.11B v $3.07Be; Raises mid-points FY22 outlook
INTC Signs agreement with Brookfield to jointly invest up to $30B in leading-edge chip factories in Arizona; Expected to be accretive to Intel’s EPS during the construction and ramp phase
*(US) AUG PRELIMINARY S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.3 V 51.8E (Lowest since July 2020)
*(US) AUG RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -8 V -4E
OPEC+ reportedly could lean towards cutting oil output when and if Iran oil production returns to the market, according to OPEC+ sources - press
(US) Freeport LNG spokesperson: Restart is progressing in the right direction; Anticipated that initial production can commence in early to mid-November; To be capable of 100% of capacity by March 2023
INTU Reports Q4 $1.10 v $0.98e, Rev $2.41B v $2.35Be; Approves $2B buyback (2% of market cap); Raises dividend to $0.78/shr (indicated yield 0.69%)
JWN Reports Q2 $0.81 v $0.80e, Rev $3.99B v $3.97Be; Cuts FY22 outlook
(CN) China banks are lowering their mortgage rates [follows the cuts in the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Aug 22nd] - Chinese press
USD/CNY (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.8388 v 6.8523 prior
(SY) US: US military conducted precision airstrikes in Syria, targeted facilities used by affiliates of Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
WEDS 8/24
(UK) UK household energy bill cap to be proposed at £2,000/yr; Rescue plan to protect households from rising bills will need funding of more than £100B over two years - FT
(JP) Japan PM Kishida: Reverses course - Now discussing nuclear plant extensions, plans to look at the construction of new plants; Govt will compile specific green transformation strategy by year end
AVV.UK Schneider reportedly considers a bid for remaining shares of $8B software firm Aveva - press
(CN) China govt said to allow construction of more infrastructure projects (aka 'stimulus')
(CN) China FX regulators reportedly have informally warned some banks against shorting the Yuan - press
*(US) JULY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -1.0% V -2.6%E; Y/Y: -22.5% V -21.4%E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 20th: 502K total units, +0.1% y/y
CLF Increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon steel hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products by a minimum of $75 per ton, effective immediately with new orders in North America
ADSK Reports Q2 $1.65 v $1.56e, Rev $1.24B v $1.22Be
CRM Reports Q2 $1.19 v $1.02e, Rev $7.72B v $7.69Be; Guides Q3 lower; Approves 1st ever $10B share buyback
USD/CNY (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.8536 v 6.8388 prior (Weakest since Aug 2020)
7267.JP Plant in Chongqing remains closed due to indefinite power cut extensions
THURS 8/25
(RU) Russia Pres Putin hopes to gain control of all of Donbas before winter sets in; Before it, he said not to be ready for peace talks - Russian non-state media
*(DE) GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 88.5 V 86.8E
(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): More strong data could tip Fed toward 75bps rate hike in Sept but personally has not yet chosen between 50bps and 75bps; Too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked
(DE) Rhine river water level forecasted to fall again to ~70cm by Aug 29th v 148cm w/w and ~150cm needed to carry fully loaded vessels - press
(CN) China customs official: No longer required cross-border travellers to report certain COVID-related information, such as tests and previous infections, when clearing customs
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED (2ND READING) Q/Q: -0.6% V -0.7%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 1.5% V 1.5%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 243K V 252KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.415M V 1.44ME
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: +8.9% V 8.7%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.4% V 4.4%E
(CN) US and China reportedly close to deal for inspections of US-listed Chinese company audit records in Hong Kong; China regulators would allow audit papers to be transferred to Hong Kong where they would be inspected by US officials - press
(US) Fed’s Bullard (voter): 3.75-4.00% is my target for Fed Funds rate this year; I prefer frontloading rates, it shows we are serious about fighting inflation - CNBC
WDAY Reports Q2 $0.83 v $0.79e, Rev $1.54B v $1.52Be
ULTA Reports Q2 $5.70 v $4.96e, Rev $2.3B v $2.21Be; Raises FY22 adj EPS, Rev, and SSS outlook
BX Single-family landlord Home Partners of America subsidiary to pause purchases of new homes in 38 cities - press
SGEN Talks with Merck said to hit 'snag', cites acquisition price - US financial press
FRI 8/26
(IN) India said to likely restrict some rice exports as its domestic rice stocks decline amid no rains - press
MRNA Sues Pfizer and BioNTech for infringing patents central to Moderna's innovative mRNA technology platform
(CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) confirms US PCAOB and China have reached agreement on audit inspections (as speculated)
*(US) JULY PERSONAL INCOME: 0.2% V 0.6%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.1% V 0.5%E
*(US) JULY PCE DEFLATOR M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 6.3% V 6.4%E (first negative M/M print since Apr 2020)
*(US) AUG FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 58.2 V 55.4E
*(US) FED CHAIR POWELL: SEPT RATE ACTION WILL DEPEND ON TOTALITY OF INCOMING DATA; FED WILL KEEP AT IT UNTIL CONFIDENT INFLATION UNDER CONTROL- JACKSON HOLE REMARKS
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q3 GDP to 1.6% from 1.4% prior
(US) Jul Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE +3.4% v +6.9% m/m