Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Heading for a Spring Swoon

- Global markets took a turn for the worse this week. In the US, the March employment report was disappointing, the March ISM Manufacturing index hit its lowest level since December and the weekly initial jobless claims pushed out to a four-month high. Last Thursday the S&P500 took out its all-time closing high but this week the index was unable to take out its intraday high of 1,576.09 from back in October 2007. The brace of soft economic data inspired talk of a "Spring swoon" in Q2 following the relatively decent first quarter, similar to scenarios seen in 2011 and 2012. Overseas central bank decisions and geopolitical storms dominated. Japan was about the only bright spot after the BoJ rolled out an aggressive new monetary policy strategy aimed at driving a stake through deflation and ending the two-decade long slump. Note that the Nikkei closed out the week not far off recent five-year highs. The ECB, BoE and the Australia's RBA left rates on hold and took no special action in their respective decisions. North Korea got plenty of attention for "authorizing" nuclear strikes on the US and making other provocative moves. In China, a new strain of bird flu (H7N9) emerged in Hong Kong and Shanghai, proving fatal for about half of the dozen people who were infected. For the week, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%.

- Markets were satisfied with the BoJ's aggressive new qualitative and quantitative monetary policy plans. The total new monthly size of asset purchases was increased to ¥7T from ¥3.8T. The board adopted "monetary base control" by unanimous vote - intending to conduct money market operations so the monetary base will rise at annual pace of ¥60-70. The BoJ also underscored its commitment to a time horizon of two years to achieve its new 2% CPI target. As speculated, the BoJ also terminated the Asset Purchase Program, with the purchase of JGBs for money market operations to be absorbed into new program. Lastly, BOJ voted to temporarily suspend bank note rule, potentially sparking scrutiny into its intent of monetizing government debt.

- The March US jobs report saw non-farm payrolls of only +88K versus expectations of +190K, and private payrolls were +95K versus expectations of +200K. The non-farm payrolls number was the lowest since July 2012. The unemployment rate fell to lows last seen in December 2008, although most of the decline was due to labor force shrinkage. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979. After the data, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said markets should not expect to hear much about QE tapering for a while.

- Natural gas futures pushed out to one-year highs on Friday, closing out the week around $4.13. Thursday's EIA weekly stockpiles data showed inventory below the five-year average level for the first time in 19 months, a major shift for a market that has been burdened with oversupply for years. Goldman Sachs said demand is growing at the same time that US production is holding steady and forecasted prices of around $4.50 in the second half of 2013.

- Leading US refining names fell 10-15% early this week after the EPA proposed new rules to reduce sulfur emissions from cars and trucks. The EPA's so-called Tier 3 standards would demand lower pollutant emissions and higher automobile fuel efficiencies. Analysts have piled on with negative comments, noting that compliance will require new capital costs for the refiners, although its worth pointing out that the proposed regulations will not take effect until 2017.

- The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) changed course and stated that there will not be benefit cuts or premium hikes next year and that the fee for service percentage would climb more than 3%. Back in mid-February, CMS published preliminary 2014 reimbursement rates suggesting that the amount it pays per person for the popular coverage could fall more than 2% in 2014. Share of leading healthcare firms gained on Tuesday morning after the announcement.

- EUR/USD remained stuck below its 200-day moving average of 1.2880 until Thursday morning. The pair tested 4-month lows during the ECB press conference as Draghi struck a dovish tone and once again pledged to maintain accommodative policy for as long as needed. As the conference drew to a close around 09:30ET, traders sent EUR/USD up two big figures from weekly lows around 1.2750 to test as high as 1.2948.

- USD/JPY hit one-month lows around 92.50 ahead of the big BoJ policy meeting on fears that Kuroda would under deliver. The yen softened up nicely following the announcements early on Thursday morning. USD/JPY bounced higher after the decision, from just below 93 to top out above 97. There was a dip on Friday, but after the US jobs report USD/JPY was right back around 97.15. AUD/JPY is hovering right above 100, up from the 97 handle before the announcement.

- USD/CNY tested below the 6.20 level for fresh 19-year highs this week. The move followed the PBoC's guidance for its daily central parity rate. Dealers said that the PBOC's recent moves implied that China's new leadership might favor a faster pace of yuan appreciation to boost flexibility under the capital account.

TradeTheNews

Apr 5 2013

Profitable end to profitable week. Started with two opening shorts in SLW and GDX nailing the top exactly in both, continued on a positive side with some back and forth, and ended the week with 5 winning days. Nothing to complain about going into weekend.

 Session Time: Fri Apr 05 00:00:00 2013
[08:39] {nemo} Your kinda
[08:39] {nemo} day
[08:39] {nemo} VadER
[08:42] {Les} and the trap door closes
[08:46] {Les} oh come on wake up ya yank bums I wanna trade!!!!!!
01[08:50] {Threei}  why are we screaming, yelling and generally misbehaving?
[08:51] {nemo} who's yelling?
[08:52] {Les} smell blood
[08:53] {Les} good morning
01[08:53] {Threei}  hi
[08:53] {nemo} frickin' rabbit can't make up her mind.  Up down...back and forth
[08:56] {nemo} well bad news was sold
01[08:57] {Threei}  yes... but Euro is strong
[08:57] {nemo} that can't last
01[08:57] {Threei}  so it's a pull and push so far
[09:12] {thomcbell} FB had a very strong day yest on volume - probably should be on long watch
[09:12] {nemo} FFIV
01[09:13] {Threei}  my favorite beating targets react positively
01[09:13] {Threei}  PMs and miners
01[09:14] {Threei}  that's weird actually
01[09:14] {Threei}  they used to drop with US troubles, and rise in response to European ones
[09:20] {dino} gm
[09:21] {Will49} gm
01[09:21] {Threei}  dino, will :)
[09:21] {nemo} no pomo today
[09:22] {nemo} but according to the schedule there is
[09:22] {nemo} weird
[09:25] {Alexs} good morning
01[09:25] {Threei}  alex :)
[09:25] {dino} surprised you guys can see me. have on my camo baseball hat to keep sun out of eyes
01[09:25] {Threei}  we can't... we guessed
[09:28] {Les} I have infrared sensor app built in to Mirc for such occassions Dino
[09:28] {cipher} gm
01[09:28] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:29] {nemo} I sent a remote micro-drone to dino's office
[09:29] {Les} trading with the sun in yer eyes, that's a bitch
[09:29] {nemo} having to actually look at you Les is worse
[09:29] {Les} must be Friday
[09:30] {Les} Nemo's in premarket kill mode
[09:31] {_doublertrading} Hey all
01[09:31] {Threei}  doubler :)
[09:31] {_doublertrading} Nice comeback yest Vad
[09:31] {Les} watching BBY again
[09:31] {thomcbell} lvs
[09:32] {thomcbell} wowza
[09:32] {backman} FB 1;1
01[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .90 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  36
[09:36] {thomcbell} shocking that pdce gapped up like it did
01[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
01[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .50  of course
01[09:40] {Threei}  GDX 1:2
[09:40] {backman} ty
01[09:40] {Threei}  yw
[09:41] {_doublertrading} Clear and concise Vad, ty
01[09:41] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
01[09:41] {Threei}  Even a blind pig gets a kernel of corn now and again
[09:41] {Les} smells it
[09:41] {Will49} Tks Vad on GDX
01[09:41] {Threei}  blood in the water? always
01[09:41] {Threei}  yw guys
[09:41] {_doublertrading} Meow
01[09:42] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
01[09:42] {Threei}  and GDX 1:3, closed both
01[09:42] {Threei}  can I go home?
[09:42] {Les} sure
[09:42] {_doublertrading} Sure catch you monday :)
[09:42] {_doublertrading} Haha
[09:43] {_doublertrading} Do you finish early on fridays Vad?
01[09:43] {Threei}  hmmm... U can't get away that easy, can I?? :)
[09:43] {Les} we'll let ya into the vodka already, but stay close to screen please
01[09:43] {Threei}  well, not THAT early :)
[09:43] {_doublertrading} We demand a couple more wins before you jet off and have some Vodka Vad
[09:43] {_doublertrading} ;)
[09:43] {dino} suppose these jobs numbers are bush's fault
01[09:43] {Threei}  GDX too soon
01[09:43] {Threei}  1:4 on radar
[09:46] {Les} missed on BBY made pennies when .90/25 was the kill zone
[09:49] {thomcbell} gnw on long watch here
[09:49] {thomcbell} mtg had a heck of a bounce
[09:51] {dino} cavm sm l .02
[09:52] {backman} BBY 1:1....vad, thanx for consult :=)
[09:53] {Les} setup was what?
[09:53] {Les} whatchya take?
01[09:53] {Threei}  hmm... did I say anything about it?? :)
01[09:53] {Threei}  I'll take credit of course :)
[09:53] {backman} no....i just closed my eyes and genuflected
01[09:53] {Threei}  ahhh!
[09:54] {Les} .45 is support area from yesterday. trying here new setup
[09:54] {dino} ffiv sm l .16
[09:55] {backman} GDX big bounce
01[09:55] {Threei}  yeah, and both jumped with no setup
01[09:55] {Threei}  I even started typing "time to look for reversal"
[09:56] {Les} was guessing for support, but not willing to take without right setup
01[09:56] {Threei}  when GDX and SLS permormed teleportation by 12-15 cents
01[09:56] {Threei}  SLW that was
[09:57] {backman} FB?
01[09:57] {Threei}  looks short to me
01[09:57] {Threei}  .80 break
[09:57] {dino} htwr sm l .84
[09:57] {dino} wide
[09:58] {dino} ffiv stop .80 -.36
[09:59] {dino} out htwr .60, +.76
01[09:59] {Threei}  nope
[10:00] {Les} gdx .84?
[10:00] {Les} holding .95?
[10:00] {Les} never mind
[10:00] {dino} out cavm .40, +.38
[10:01] {thomcbell} where is cipher - this is his tape
[10:01] {thomcbell} dino cipher
[10:01] {dino} htwr drop
[10:01] {thomcbell} two nice ones there dino
[10:02] {dino} ffiv rinsed
[10:02] {cipher} here
[10:02] {dino} ty tbell, lucky, things are pulp
[10:02] {cipher} busy trading :)
[10:02] {thomcbell} that a boy
[10:03] {dino} wtf htwr, spiked a buck
[10:04] {cipher} ADP L .40
[10:05] {dino} htwr sm l .73 ave
[10:05] {dino} out htwr .29, +.56
[10:06] {dino} that thing is definition of pulp
[10:08] {nemo} range check coming
[10:08] {dino} cavm sm l .93
[10:11] {thomcbell} FB grrr
01[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  C  .10 break
01[10:12] {Threei}  If holds  42
[10:14] {cipher} MELI L .11
[10:14] {nemo} jcp
[10:15] {cipher} out MELI .02 -.09
01[10:20] {Threei}  stop to .04
[10:20] {cipher} CME L .75
01[10:20] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {cipher} ADP stopped .44 +.03
[10:22] {nemo} gmcr
[10:23] {thomcbell} nice C - Vadim
[10:23] {dino} out cavm .29, +.36
[10:23] {thomcbell} good stuff Dino
01[10:23] {Threei}  :)
[10:23] {cipher} CME stopped +.04
[10:23] {dino} ty tbell. unfortunately have to leve for 30 minutes or so
01[10:24] {Threei}  hey guys, remember jf?
01[10:24] {Threei}  jf44
01[10:24] {Threei}  or close to that
[10:25] {thomcbell} long setup wdc - 49.10 break if holding 49
01[10:25] {Threei}  jfjf64... found exact nick :)
01[10:25] {Threei}  says hi and should be back soon, finished whatever assignments he had
[10:27] {thomcbell} wdc 1:1
[10:28] {thomcbell} that was all she had wdc 1:1
[10:29] {thomcbell} rinse and run
[10:29] {thomcbell} piece of garbage
[10:30] {thomcbell} oh come on Vad
01[10:30] {Threei}  ?
[10:30] {thomcbell} wdc
[10:31] {thomcbell} hit 1:1 - rinsed second half and then bolted
01[10:31] {Threei}  did I miss something? :)
01[10:32] {Threei}  I can't tell by that bar at 10:28... did it hit .20 and then .08?
[10:33] {Les} BBY testing VWAP resistance here
[10:33] {thomcbell} yes - fortunately i didnt use a hard stop on the entire second half - so got 0.30 cents on 1/4 of the position
[10:34] {cipher} GMCR S .96
01[10:34] {Threei}  nice
[10:34] {thomcbell} lvs looks like a 51.72 long break 1/2 lot
[10:35] {thomcbell} id rather buy a rinse though
[10:35] {cipher} NTWK L .46
[10:35] {cipher} cov GMCR .85 +.11
[10:36] {backman} l gdx .33
[10:36] {nemo} chkp
[10:37] {Les} 2 way play chkp?
[10:37] {nemo} cat
[10:39] {backman} out 1:1
01[10:39] {Threei}  no read on CHKP
[10:45] {thomcbell} wow wdc
[10:46] {thomcbell} and FB
[10:48] {Les} watching SLW as it drifts lower to 29 here
[10:49] {Les} VAd SLW 29 short holding .10?
01[10:49] {Threei}  just a min more of consolidation and yes
[10:52] {nemo} looks like they want to get spy to the weekly pivot at .62
[10:52] {cipher} GMCR L .91
01[10:53] {Threei}  SLW looks so very ready
01[10:53] {Threei}  GDX too btw
01[10:53] {Threei}  setup is obvious
[10:53] {cipher} out GMCR  .09 +.18
[10:55] {thomcbell} slw pivot 28.76 a good target
[10:55] {Les} fb
[10:56] {Les} .54? short
[10:57] {Les} stop .65{'
[10:57] {Les} ?
01[10:57] {Threei}  don't see any setup there
[10:57] {Les} k
[11:04] {nemo} BTFD!!!
[11:08] {Les} go buy it yerself douchebag
[11:08] {Les} partial SLW
01[11:08] {Threei}  1:1
[11:08] {Will49} yes, 1/2 out tks Les
01[11:10] {Threei}  GDX 1:1 as well
01[11:10] {Threei}  this is too easy... I need new profession. Training tigers?
[11:11] {Les} uh oh
[11:11] {nemo} training your wife
[11:11] {Les} ego alert
[11:11] {dino} .
[11:11] {Les} gonna put a hex on us
[11:11] {nemo} iwm might close the gap
01[11:13] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out
[11:13] {thomcbell} well lvs got the ridiculous rinse and then pow
01[11:13] {Threei}  GDX 1:2, out
[11:13] {nemo} lost track of chkp
[11:13] {Will49} Tks again Les
06[11:14] * Les takes a bow and thanks VAd's practised eye
[11:14] {Will49} yes. assist to you Vad
06[11:15] * Threei thinks of something witty and caustic to say, can't comeup with anything, shrugs and falls asleep
[11:15] {Will49} LOL
[11:15] {backman} thnx GDX ...have a good wknd
01[11:16] {Threei}  take care backman
[11:16] {Les} hehehe
01[11:17] {Threei}  loonie is a thing of beauty today
[11:17] {Les} I'm admiring the yen
[11:17] {Les} full steam ahead titanic
[11:23] {Les} sm FB short .68
[11:23] {thomcbell} wprt - nice job - look at that pivot bounce to the penny
[11:23] {thomcbell} i mean slw
[11:23] {nemo} next leg up
[11:26] {Les} cover half fb .60
[11:28] {Les} FB covered .60
01[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  35 break
01[11:32] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:32] {Threei}  poor goldbugs... no break
01[11:35] {Threei}  - The March jobs report is very poor by any analysis. Non-farm payrolls added only 88K, its worst showing since last July. By far the ugliest component of the report was retail jobs, which plunged by 24K. Analysts say the latter component is due to the impact of the payroll tax increase.
01[11:35] {Threei}  where is ese.. I want to hear his thoughts on great recovery
[11:35] {Les} suck crap and die washington
01[11:36] {Threei}  The unemployment rate fell to lows last seen in December 2008, although most of the decline was due to labor force shrinkage. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979.
[11:42] {Will49} Xie, Xie for all the jobs USA
01[12:00] {Threei}  lol
01[12:00] {Threei}  pathologists state that human inner beauty is greatly exaggerated
[12:00] {Les} :)
01[12:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break
[12:16] {cipher} SINA L .64
[12:16] {thomcbell} after some consolidation we may get a lvs short entry
[12:17] {thomcbell} on 52 break
[12:17] {cipher} out SINA .87 +.23
[12:18] {Les} BBY tryign to break resistance
[12:21] {Les} FB short vad?
[12:21] {Les} break of .45
01[12:21] {Threei}  probably
01[12:22] {Threei}  still feels like long is better odds
[12:22] {cipher} good call on BBY Les
[12:22] {Les} yeh grabbed two scalps short and left it as energy died off. can't see much now
[12:23] {Les} might reverse here BBY but has trendline support so not touching yet
[12:23] {thomcbell} now its tradeable 51.98 break if holding 52.08
[12:23] {thomcbell} lvs
[12:24] {thomcbell} it would be a c&h failure
[12:27] {thomcbell} im cancelling the idea
[12:28] {thomcbell} lvs nothing working
[12:29] {Les} 3 min bb's are strangling it tbell. New move coming soon
[12:29] {thomcbell} looks 2 sided
[12:30] {Les} FB no longer a squeeze candidate
[12:31] {nemo} your head is
[12:32] {Les} LOL
[12:32] {Les} not bad not bad
01[12:33] {Threei}  you are too kind les
01[12:33] {Threei}  I found it below par for nemo
01[12:33] {Threei}  I expect much more sophisticated insults from him
[12:34] {Les} friday, I'm tired.. and he got a chuckle out of me. works
[12:35] {nemo} It was right there Vad...besides nothing will come out anyway
[12:35] {nemo} except for air
03[12:35] * Looking up cc_8 user info...
[12:35] {nemo} cat
[12:36] {nemo} too fast above .80
[12:37] {cipher} SINA L .02
[12:42] {cipher} GMCR  L .82
[12:51] {cipher} SINA stopped .05 +.03
[12:52] {cipher} out GMCR .91 +..09
01[12:54] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .30 break
01[12:55] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[12:55] {Threei}  yikes
[12:57] {cipher} conn s .00
[12:58] {cipher} stopped .97 +.03
[13:02] {Les} fb vwap here
[13:02] {Les} short .30?
01[13:02] {Threei}  nah
01[13:02] {Threei}  sharp drop into support
[13:02] {Les} k
01[13:02] {Threei}  no consolidation
01[13:05] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  52 break
[13:05] {Les} haha
[13:05] {Les} beat me to it
01[13:05] {Threei}  tbell's idea from earlier
[13:05] {Les} true
01[13:05] {Threei}  formed setup again
06[13:12] * Threei hits LVS over the head with 2x4
01[13:17] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[13:17] {Threei}  but on watch
01[13:17] {Threei}  it's one of those on again, off again
[13:18] {nemo} iwm gonna fill gap
[13:18] {nemo} this rally far from over
01[13:21] {Threei}  I think so
01[13:21] {Threei}  everyone and their brother expect correction
[13:21] {nemo} consolidating before earnings
[13:21] {nemo} when everyone expects it, it doesn't happen
01[13:21] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[13:22] {nemo} indubitably
[13:24] {Les} damn dt's on the miners
[13:28] {Les} FB short .30?
[13:28] {Les} holding .40?
01[13:29] {Threei}  chart looks right
01[13:29] {Threei}  but so did GDX's
01[13:29] {Threei}  how about this:
01[13:29] {Threei}  yes but hl, oir of respect for Fri aftrenoon listlessness
[13:29] {Les} yeh vwap might serve as new launching platform long
01[13:29] {Threei}  out
[13:29] {_doublertrading} Bye all, have a great weekend, off to have some drinks :)
[13:30] {Les} cheers man
01[13:30] {Threei}  take care doubler
[13:30] {_doublertrading} Cheers all
[13:30] {_doublertrading} Cya
[13:30] {dino} enjoy doubler
[13:30] {Will49} bye
[13:33] {Les} watching if GDX can set up potential cup and handle with .50 trigger
[13:39] {cipher} FFIV L .00
[13:41] {cipher} out .20
[13:48] {dino} gj
[13:48] {dino} ok, back to work
[13:51] {thomcbell} kors could be a short setup here after some digestion
[13:51] {thomcbell} congestion
[13:52] {dino} ffiv sm l .81
01[13:55] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .50 break hl
01[13:58] {Threei}  needless to say, invalidated
[14:09] {Les} FB half covered .21
[14:09] {dino} out ffiv .24, +.43
01[14:13] {Threei}  nice one FB
[14:15] {Les} FB fully covered .22
[14:16] {dino} gj
[14:16] {Les} making dinner and my bid at .10 wasn't even close
[14:16] {Les} ty
[14:27] {dino} alk banging pivot
01[14:28] {Threei}  is it concentual?
[14:28] {Will49} lol
[14:35] {dino} lol
[14:35] {dino} damn dial-up
[14:42] {thomcbell} market is pretty impressive
[14:44] {dino} indeed
[14:44] {nemo} employment report means Bennie keeps pedal to the metal
[14:44] {nemo} market happy
[14:45] {dino} print print print
[14:46] {dino} we scewed up nemo. we should have been sorting fxy after weekend announcement by boj
[14:46] {dino} shorting
[14:46] {nemo} what etf can do that?
[14:47] {nemo} oh cool
[14:47] {dino} fxy yen/$
[14:47] {nemo} yep
[14:47] {Les} there be currency war
[14:48] {nemo} knew it, spy gonna' go for the 155 stops me thinks
[14:48] {Les} c
[14:49] {nemo} fxy doesn't do much volume
[14:49] {dino} too me its rockin' volume
[14:50] {nemo} I understand, go back under your hat
[14:50] {dino} :)
[14:50] {dino} les, regarding currency war, thats what the euro countries need. the ability to print/de-value, etc. they are f#cked w/o it
[14:51] {Les} sure dino
[14:51] {Les} but three way horse race
[14:51] {Les} DT C?
[14:51] {Les} volume spike 1 and 2
[14:51] {nemo} not really Les...you have a Euro cluster party
[14:51] {dino} dk, too thick for my edge
[14:52] {nemo} too many differing cultures, they'll all screw with their budgets
[14:52] {Les} 3 way race
[14:52] {Les} yen
[14:52] {Les} dollar
[14:52] {Les} euro
[14:52] {nemo} Euro is going to die
[14:52] {Les} and Euro bankers tied one hand behind back by politicians
[14:53] {Les} t'will be interesting regardless of outcomes
01[14:53] {Threei}  Euro is like a good zombie - yes, it's going to die but first it will kill as many as it can
[14:53] {nemo} 3:00 clock numbers
[14:54] {dino} 1st euro country to bail is best one left standing. germany should go first
[14:55] {dino} reminds me of the customs joke
[14:55] {Les} would be doing everyone a favour
[14:55] {Les} Europeans hate Germans again
[14:56] {dino} merkel arrives in greece. customs asks "occupation?" she replies, "in about two weeks."
[14:56] {Will49} lol
[14:56] {nemo} dino made a funny (faint)
[14:56] {dino} htwr vsm l .55
01[14:58] {Threei}  I know variation
01[14:58] {Threei}  custom: nationaly?
[14:58] {nemo} yeah, Reagan
01[14:58] {Threei}  merkkel: german
01[14:58] {Threei}  custom: occupation?
01[14:58] {Threei}  merkel: no, just visiting
[14:59] {Will49} :)
[14:59] {dino} this country needs reagan nemo
01[15:00] {Threei}  *(US) FEB CONSUMER CREDIT: $18.14B V +$15.0BE
[15:00] {nemo} bad news was bought after bottoming and this would be considered good news?
[15:01] {dino} we dropped
[15:04] {Les} LoL Dino funny
[15:05] {nemo} transports are funny
[15:05] {nemo} gone positive
[15:10] {thomcbell} fb long setup 27.40 break if holding 27.30
[15:11] {thomcbell} really if 27.28
[15:11] {thomcbell} very nice volume again
[15:12] {Will49} wow
01[15:21] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .70 break
01[15:21] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:24] {dino} out htwr .49, -.06. bus stop time
[15:31] {Les} C squeezing good today
[15:37] {thomcbell} lvs i want to start clapping
[15:37] {thomcbell} you did it kid
01[15:38] {Threei}  hehe
[15:39] {thomcbell} bowties in boston want to bring this market green
[15:42] {nemo} popped the 155 stops
[15:44] {nemo} finnies hit yesterday's pivot
01[15:48] {Threei}  quite impressive resilience
[15:48] {dino} dumb move, should've hard stopped htwr and let it trade
01[15:48] {Threei}  assumption that BTFD is still in effect is still in effect
[15:48] {dino} what is btfd
[15:48] {nemo} earnings start next
[15:48] {nemo} week
[15:48] {nemo} BUY THE FUCKING DIP
01[15:48] {Threei}  buy the f***g dip :)
[15:48] {nemo} janitor
01[15:49] {Threei}  miners are still in deep doodoo
01[15:49] {Threei}  gold at least showed some will to live
01[15:50] {Threei}  unlike silver
[15:50] {nemo} doodoo=shit
01[15:50] {Threei}  thanks for the translation
[15:50] {nemo} np and Pisdah means...
01[15:50] {Threei}  sigh... who teaches hom russian...
01[15:50] {Threei}  him
[15:51] {nemo} mon frere!
[15:54] {Will49} enjoy your weekend mes amis
01[15:54] {Threei}  thank you all
01[15:54] {Threei}  have a great weekend
[15:54] {Les} CHEERS
01[15:54] {Threei}  see you Monday
[15:57] {thomcbell} flattening fb at break even
[15:57] {thomcbell} duh
[15:59] {nemo} can iwm close positive
[15:59] {nemo} ?
[15:59] {thomcbell} aapl looks terrible
[16:00] {Alexs} have a good weekend
[16:00] {thomcbell} good weekend all

Apr 4 2013

Inverted Cup and Handle, aggressive entry as handle started turning back down. 1:3

Other than that, decent day albeit a bit boring.


Session Time: Thu Apr 04 00:00:00 2013
[09:04] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {Les} morning
01[09:09] {Threei}  les :)
[09:10] {_doublertrading} Morning all
01[09:10] {Threei}  d\oubler :)
[09:10] {cipher} gm
[09:14] {Les} Uncle Buck welcoming European investors with open arms I see
01[09:14] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:20] {Will49} gm
01[09:21] {Threei}  will :)
[09:22] {thomcbell} gm all
01[09:23] {Threei}  tbell :)
[09:23] {jdetente} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  jd :)
[09:24] {Alexs} gm
01[09:24] {Threei}  akex :)
01[09:25] {Threei}  to relax before action starts, spend couple minutes here: http://photography.realitytrader.com/2013/04/spring-unleashed.html
[09:27] {Will49} Beautiful Vad, we do live in paradise
01[09:27] {Threei}  we so do
[09:27] {nemo} shhhhh...Les might hear you and want to move there
01[09:27] {Threei}  so keep machine gun ready
01[09:28] {Threei}  paradises need strong defenses :)
[09:28] {Les} already filing the paperwork Nemo
[09:29] {thomcbell} good camera stuff and other advice
[09:29] {thomcbell} Vad
01[09:29] {Threei}  :)
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  34 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:31] {dino} vrx drop again
01[09:31] {Threei}  yeah right
01[09:31] {Threei}  good luck getting that
[09:31] {Les} good wasn't only me
[09:32] {Will49} misery loves company Les
[09:33] {ese} ahhhhhh   am in.....good morning
01[09:33] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:33] {Threei}  why wouldn't you be
[09:34] {ese} it kicked me out
01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
01[09:34] {Threei}  know why?
01[09:34] {Threei}  look here:
01[09:34] {Threei}  09:28] * morning has joined #discussions
01[09:34] {Threei}  -----------
01[09:34] {Threei}  [09:28] * morning was kicked by ChanServ (You are not permitted to be on this channel.)
[09:34] {ese} accidentally signed in with good morning and it kicked me out
01[09:34] {Threei}  :)
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:34] {nemo} cool it worked
01[09:34] {Threei}  frikin GDX!
01[09:36] {Threei}  seriously got away... especially considering we hunted this same break yesterday at the end of the day too
[09:36] {Les} grabbed half short on break of .90 half covered
01[09:37] {Threei}  Invalidated  SLW
[09:37] {thomcbell} vlo nasty bounce
[09:37] {Les} cover 2h gdx lfat
[09:38] {Les} lol SLW
[09:38] {thomcbell} lvs 4th day down approaching 50sma
[09:38] {nemo} think faz long above 50 might start looking good or fas above .05
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: LNC  .75 break hl
[09:39] {thomcbell} 52.81
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[09:39] {dino} vrx sm l .10
[09:40] {ese} L abt .60
[09:40] {dino} wgo sm l .70
[09:42] {dino} yen big drop, fyx
[09:42] {dino} fxy
[09:43] {ese} abt 1/2 .73 +.13
[09:44] {dino} out vrx .50, +.40
01[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .80 break
01[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:46] {dino} bidu sm l .54
01[09:48] {Threei}  Invalidated  GDX
01[09:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[09:51] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:52] {ese} abt out full .81 +.21 balance
[09:53] {Les} nice job ese
01[09:56] {Threei}  no go FB
01[09:56] {Threei}  sudden rug pull
[09:57] {dino} bidu stop .24 -.30
[09:57] {ese} tks les
[09:58] {thomcbell} a retrace down to the pivot would be nice for FB for trade into the meeting this afternoon
01[09:59] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .10 break hl
01[09:59] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:59] {dino} fu bidu
01[10:00] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:00] {nemo} that was the pullback onward with the rally
[10:00] {dino} elli sm l .96
[10:01] {dino} i think you are right nemo
[10:01] {dino} buy the dips
01[10:01] {Threei}  most likely, yes
[10:02] {nemo} the bottom yesterday on spy was 23.6% retracement of most recent up leg
01[10:02] {Threei}  hmmm... why didn't we view LVS as two-sided
[10:02] {nemo} your negative bias...queue cat please
01[10:03] {Threei}  to be called negative by nemo...
[10:03] {thomcbell} i almost spoke up - on the lvs - i was looking for a long entry using usu. setups and i couldnt quite pull the trigger on that 53.20 break
[10:03] {nemo} sure...open your own room then
01[10:04] {Threei}  LNC 1:1
01[10:04] {Threei}  took its sweet time
01[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break
01[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  84
[10:10] {nemo} two way
[10:11] {cipher} call l.20
[10:13] {nemo} Mon looks interesting short here
[10:14] {cipher} MDCO S .14
[10:19] {dino} tdc sm l .63
[10:20] {dino} gbx
[10:21] {cipher} out CALL .15 -.05
[10:24] {Les} missed the 2nd top on MON for a setup by .10 good call
[10:25] {thomcbell} fb now look for some sort of a db entry - may take a bit
01[10:25] {Threei}  LNC 1:2, out
01[10:25] {Threei}  whew, this one really took a while
[10:26] {dino} out wgo .72, +.02
01[10:26] {Threei}  CAT no go
[10:26] {Les} LNC 1:3
[10:26] {Will49} CAT is having a nap too
[10:26] {Les} speeding up
[10:27] {dino} news?
[10:27] {dino} 50 pt drop in 2 minutes
01[10:27] {Threei}  Reminder: At 10:30ET Fed Bernanke Speaks on Financial and Economic Education Before the 13th Annual Redefining Investment Strategy Education (RISE) Forum in Dayton, Ohio (via pre-recorded video)
01[10:27] {Threei}  maybe pre-Ben
[10:28] {Les} Orwell was before his time
[10:28] {Les} sounds like doublethink, 'redefining investment education'
[10:28] {dino} bidu sm l .18
[10:29] {dino} out bidu .48, +.30
[10:32] {thomcbell} long setup 26.20 braek if holding 26.10
[10:32] {thomcbell} FB
[10:34] {nemo} VRSN might be good short
[10:34] {nemo} below .30 stop .40
[10:34] {nemo} a little thin
[10:35] {dino} lnn sm l .80 thinny
[10:36] {thomcbell} 1:2 target on fb
[10:36] {dino} tdc stop .30, -.33
[10:39] {cipher} cov MDCO .17 -.03
[10:40] {dino} tdc sm l .21
[10:40] {cipher} MDCO L.20
[10:41] {cipher} CALL L .00
[10:42] {thomcbell} fb 1:1
[10:42] {cipher} BMRN L .03
01[10:44] {Threei}  frikin CAT... rinse
[10:44] {cipher} out BMRN .34 +.31
[10:47] {dino} gj
[10:47] {dino} out tdc .49, +.28
[10:49] {dino} out lnn .82, +.02
[10:50] {dino} tdc sm l .98
01[10:52] {Threei}  let me reiterate: frikin CAT
[10:52] {thomcbell} FB stop to 26.25 on balance
[10:52] {cipher} IBM L.10
[10:54] {cipher} out .24
[10:55] {nemo} fcx
[10:57] {thomcbell} out fb
[10:58] {ese} dcc vad when you get a chance
01[11:02] {Threei} Short Setup: BBY  .80 break
01[11:03] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:03] {Threei}  target 1:3
[11:03] {nemo} taking offers big time
[11:08] {dino} pcyc sm l .54
[11:09] {Les} cut risk in half squeeze candidate
01[11:10] {Threei}  no go
[11:10] {dino} bby stop -.11
[11:13] {dino} out pcyc .0399, +.50
[11:13] {dino} hit/miss kind of day
01[11:14] {Threei} Short Setup: BBY  24 break
01[11:14] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:15] {nemo} crack stock
01[11:17] {Threei}  stop to .05
01[11:17] {Threei}  sigh
01[11:18] {Threei}  good tightening though
[11:18] {nemo} or lubing as the case may be
[11:25] {Les} GDX flattening out. watching for potential trend reversal
[11:25] {Les} lunch time
[11:27] {nemo} oh good, I can drink
[11:28] {nemo} shorting spy here might not be a bad idea
01[11:29] {Threei}  EUR/USD tested four-month lows below 1.2750 during Draghi's initial remarks, although his vehement assertion that there was no return from the euro at the closing helped push the pair out to session highs around 1.2870.
01[11:29] {Threei}  jawboning by irresponsible idiot who will say anything to save his job
[11:30] {nemo} take some off SPY just above .70
[11:30] {thomcbell} fb bad trail
[11:32] {cipher} QCOR L .90
[11:34] {cipher} out .08
01[11:37] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .60 break
[11:38] {nemo} looks bullflaggy
[11:41] {nemo} look for FCX bottom .70-.75
[11:43] {cipher} TNA L .34
[11:43] {thomcbell} very large cup and handle on bbry 1 min
[11:48] {cipher} TNA stopped .39 +.05
[11:49] {cipher} SYNA L .00
[11:52] {dino} beam sm l .35
[11:52] {nemo} NSC
[11:54] {cipher} SYNA stopped .97 -.03
[11:54] {nemo} IWM forming pennant
[11:55] {nemo} QCOR could be short here
[11:55] {dino} ipgp sm l .51
[11:56] {nemo} I was a little late
[11:56] {Les} would like a dt qcor
[11:58] {thomcbell} bby nus
[11:59] {thomcbell} nuts
01[11:59] {Threei}  no kidding, look at this bar on daily
[11:59] {Les} appears to be normal squeeze
[12:00] {Les} dogging this one for reversal setup
[12:01] {Les} FB followed similar routine when I tried early morning short
[12:01] {Les} created some SOP's for it
01[12:03] {Threei}  crap... was trying to find C short entry
[12:05] {Les} so far BBY rising trendline morning. flattens into range support, althogh very briefly here. might wear itself out quicker than EoD. Second rising trendline serving as support. If it fails support here then its weakening
[12:05] {Les} range is opening up
[12:06] {Les} esoteric study but love this shit
01[12:06] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .30 break
01[12:06] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[12:06] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20
01[12:07] {Threei}  with target 1:4
[12:08] {Les} 2 way fade?
01[12:08] {Threei}  not to me
[12:08] {Les} k
01[12:08] {Threei}  don't like it long
[12:08] {Les} I see GS FAS lost vwap support earlier
[12:09] {cipher} IBM S.30
[12:09] {dino} cvlt drop
[12:09] {Les} qcor
[12:09] {Les} short .58
[12:09] {Les} stop .70
[12:09] {cipher} cov IBM .20 +.10
[12:10] {Les} cover half .512
[12:10] {Les} .51
[12:11] {Les} BBY
[12:12] {Les} sm short .38
[12:12] {Les} stop .50
[12:12] {Les} migh be early
01[12:12] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .40 break
01[12:12] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:13] {dino} tdc sm l .85
[12:13] {Les} stop flat
[12:14] {Les} qcor stop .59
[12:15] {Les} no dt qcor
[12:17] {cipher} IBM l .22
[12:18] {cipher} out .39
01[12:18] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .45 break
01[12:18] {Threei}  If holds  55
01[12:19] {Threei}  trying to find the handle of the inverted C&H
01[12:19] {Threei}  see it?
[12:20] {Les} sm short bby .38 stop .50
01[12:21] {Threei}  1:1
[12:21] {Les} nice eye vad. something don't see looking at indicators
01[12:21] {Threei}  indicators are swcondary
01[12:21] {Threei}  chart configuration is primary
[12:22] {Les} well i failed there
01[12:22] {Threei}  trading of indicators without chart is akin to eating spices without a dish
01[12:22] {Threei}  salt without meat
[12:22] {Les} as a cook that metaphor makes sense
01[12:22] {Threei}  pepper without fish
01[12:22] {Threei}  you got an idea
[12:23] {Les} BBY half covered .31
[12:23] {Les} qcor wanted short can't borrow here
01[12:23] {Threei}  what is it 111 Trades teaches as a primary subject?
[12:23] {Les} .65/.75
[12:24] {Les} how to recognise a banana
01[12:24] {Threei}  right but HOW?
[12:24] {Les} looking at chart patterns
01[12:24] {Threei}  say one imperative word
01[12:24] {Threei}  and I'll leave you alone :)
[12:24] {Les} hmmmm
01[12:24] {Threei}  starts with V
01[12:25] {Threei}  ends with ISUALLY
[12:25] {Les} double hmmm
[12:25] {Les} uuuuh
[12:25] {Les} V + ISUALLY
01[12:25] {Threei}  guessed yet?? :)
[12:25] {Les} :)
01[12:25] {Threei}  old russian joke
[12:25] {Les} bby 1:2 ALL OUT
[12:26] {_doublertrading} Come on C, plummet
[12:26] {Les} weakening
01[12:26] {Threei}  two junkies, high... munching on somwething, talking
01[12:26] {Threei}  one offers a riddle:
01[12:27] {Threei}  what's green, small, lives in a pond, jumps from leaf to leaf, starts with FR and ends with OG?
01[12:27] {Threei}  snother after a few min of heavy thinking: frog?
01[12:27] {Threei}  first: you knew!
01[12:28] {Threei}  sigh... whatever... I need more russians here
[12:29] {Les} could be interesting linguistic study, Russian sense of humor
[12:29] {Les} cultural study too
01[12:30] {Threei}  ready to plunge is dark depths, eh
01[12:30] {Threei}  in
01[12:30] {Threei}  die C, you are our designated day fixer
01[12:31] {Threei}  1:4, no less
[12:34] {dino} out tdc .20, +.35
[12:36] {dino} out beam .65, +.30
[12:37] {ese} Gotta go all.........am not getting any trading done due to being on the phone.......catch ya tomorrow
[12:37] {Will49} peace ese
[12:37] {ese} tks will
01[12:37] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:41] {dino} tdc sm l .36
[12:42] {dino} hmmm, didn't see that coming
[12:44] {dino} reload .84
[12:45] {dino} out tdc .35
[12:45] {dino} +.49
[12:45] {Will49} good recovery
[12:46] {dino} thx
[12:47] {dino} air pockets under lots of stocks this week
01[12:47] {Threei}  plenty of fear
01[12:47] {Threei}  maket being at all-time highs while there are so many icebergs around
01[12:47] {Threei}  and each looks for the Titanic
[12:48] {Will49} my captain, my captain
01[12:48] {Threei}  lol
[12:49] {Will49} i'm just an apprentice slaving away in the boiler room
01[12:53] {Threei}  GS... need it to make new low
01[12:53] {Threei}  and C should follow
01[12:58] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:58] {dino} tdc sm l .60
[13:01] {Les} nearly there on the banksters
01[13:03] {Threei}  OK C
01[13:03] {Threei}  watch your big brother and do the same
[13:05] {dino} out tdc .00, +.40
[13:08] {cipher} tdc l .89
01[13:08] {Threei}  42.20 is yesterday low on C as well
01[13:09] {Threei}  if it's broken, all hell should break lose
01[13:09] {Threei}  1:2
01[13:09] {Threei}  ok baby... let's do it
01[13:09] {Threei}  bees do it...
01[13:10] {Threei}  something about badly educated fleas...
[13:11] {cipher} pdce l .26
[13:11] {Will49} "even educated fles do it..."
[13:11] {Will49} fleas
[13:11] {dino} took awhile, out elli .28, +.32
01[13:12] {Threei}  hmmm... why did I think those fleas were not very well read...
01[13:14] {Threei}  Facebook CEO: Today we're finally going to talk about the Facebook phone, or how you can turn your Android phone into a simple social device - mobile phone app event- On average, we spend 20 percent of our phone time on Facebook. Add in Instagram and it's 25 percent. We spend our lives sharing and connecting. - Today mobile phones are designed around apps. Not people. We want to flip that around. We don't want to build a phone or OS that only some people are going to use. - A great phone might sell 10-20 million units at best. Facebook is a community of 1 billion people. - We're not building a phone and we're not building an OS -- we're building an experience that's deeper than any other app. - Facebook Home is a family of apps that you can install on your Android phone.
01[13:14] {Threei}  thank you GS
01[13:14] {Threei}  C 1:3
01[13:15] {Threei}  "We spend our lives sharing and connecting."
01[13:15] {Threei}  hah
01[13:15] {Threei}  not me
01[13:15] {Threei}  I do all I can to disconnect
[13:15] {Will49} LOL
01[13:15] {Threei}  my phone is not smart and I use it about once every two weeks
01[13:16] {Threei}  last time I thought of using it was when I was running late to meet Will... and wanted to alert him... and then realized he doesn't have one at all
[13:16] {Will49} ludite
01[13:17] {Threei}  but here is where I agree with Zuck:
01[13:17] {Threei}  "We want to flip that"
01[13:17] {Threei}  I'd just add "iff"
01[13:17] {Threei}  off
[13:17] {Will49} had a BB when i worked and couldn't wait to get untethered
01[13:18] {Threei}  "Facebook is a community of 1 billion people"
01[13:18] {Threei}  big yikes
01[13:19] {Threei}  ok... last part C stopped on a trail
01[13:19] {Threei}  anyway, 1:3 is good enough to move the day in black
01[13:19] {Threei}  not much but
[13:21] {cipher} out PDCE .50 +.24
01[13:25] {Threei}  visual http://goo.gl/3KLi8
[13:25] {cipher} pdce drop
[13:27] {dino} pdce sm l .00
01[13:28] {Threei}  seriously, how can anyone think of 1B people as of their community?
[13:28] {Les} $$
01[13:29] {Threei}  I can barely stand anything above 10, no more than for couple hours
[13:29] {dino} no go stop -.30 pdce
[13:29] {cipher} any news on it?
01[13:30] {Threei}  not that I see
[13:31] {dino} fly on wall, production 30-40%?
[13:31] {cipher} seller is dumping everything he's got
[13:32] {thomcbell} ?
[13:32] {dino} s3 42.85
[13:32] {thomcbell} what stock cipher
01[13:32] {Threei}  PDCE
[13:34] {nemo} crus starting afternoon leg
[13:37] {dino} pdce sm l .70
[13:40] {nemo} while I was sleeping Les say anything stupid?
[13:40] {nemo} what am I thinking...
01[13:40] {Threei}  he did: he said nemo was very nice human being
[13:40] {nemo} What did he say that was stupid?  That's a better question
[13:40] {Les} well I was thinking
[13:40] {Les} does that count?
01[13:40] {Threei}  see what I did there?
01[13:41] {Threei}  insulted nemo undetr pretense of insulting les
[13:41] {nemo} yeah...
01[13:41] {Threei}  I personally think it was genius
01[13:41] {Threei}  too bad I am the only one who think so...
[13:41] {Les} your insults are too fine for my blunt sense of humour vad
01[13:42] {Threei}  sorry...
[13:42] {Les} SPY volume
[13:43] {dino} out pdce .70, flat
[13:44] {nemo} this uptrend all started in the finnies
[13:45] {nemo} IWM back to the 50 day
[13:45] {Les} bby smal short .58
[13:45] {Les} stop .70
[13:45] {nemo} playing with the crack huh?
[13:46] {Will49} hey! this is a family show
[13:47] {nemo} Addams family, Manson Family...etc.
[13:47] {Will49} LOL
[13:47] {Will49} Partridge family
[13:50] {Les} bby covered .50
01[13:53] {Threei}  PDCE trying to break
01[13:53] {Threei}  45
[13:56] {dino} bcei drop
[13:58] {thomcbell} looks like a 45 break half lot
01[13:59] {Threei}  yeah
[13:59] {nemo} then short again around 46
[13:59] {nemo} but it might go short here, below .90
[14:00] {nemo} oops, too fast
01[14:00] {Threei}  yeah
[14:01] {nemo} this could go a ways
[14:01] {Les} GDX slowing down. would like it to make .50 for ashort, but maybe .30 short if holdign .40?
[14:01] {Les} vad?
[14:02] {thomcbell} or a flat out avoid
01[14:03] {Threei}  can't tell here les
01[14:03] {Threei}  can go either way, 50/50
[14:03] {Les} dicken around with a burning frying pan so doesn't matter anyway :)
[14:08] {nemo} boy, they're setting up the indexes for the NFP tomorrow
[14:08] {Les} NFP?
[14:08] {nemo} oh jeez
[14:08] {Les} ohn right
[14:08] {Les} employment numbers
[14:09] {Les} u guys have acronyms for everything
[14:09] {Les} like being in frikin army again
[14:09] {nemo} frickin' Sheial of a wombat poker
[14:09] {nemo} Sheila
06[14:09] * Les reiterates for the trading log what a wonderful human being Nemo is
[14:10] {nemo} ahh shit, gotta' go clean the keyboard
01[14:11] {Threei}  lol
06[14:11] * Threei high fives Les
[14:11] {Les} hehehe
[14:17] {nemo} they'll get IWM back above the 50 today'
[14:19] {dino} bcei sm l .62
[14:23] {dino} pdce sm l .26
01[14:24] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break
01[14:24] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[14:25] {Les} r3 .21
01[14:25] {Threei}  trying for double top
[14:25] {Les} bby
01[14:26] {Threei}  Invalidated
[14:27] {Les} gdx dt?
[14:27] {Les} never mind
[14:28] {Les} miners got a bid today
[14:29] {dino} out pdce .75, +.49
01[14:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break again
01[14:32] {Threei}  stop new high
01[14:33] {Threei}  .24
[14:34] {Les} bby sm short .68
[14:35] {Les} .70
01[14:37] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[14:39] {Les} bby sm short .69
[14:39] {Les} stop .80
[14:40] {dino} ppo drop
[14:40] {dino} damn, missed
[14:41] {dino} ppo sm l .79
[14:42] {Les} partial cover .61 bby
[14:42] {dino} out .24, +.45
01[14:42] {Threei}  wtg
[14:43] {dino} s3 rejecting it
[14:46] {dino} out bcei .84, +.22
[14:48] {dino} ppo sm l .70
[14:48] {Les} BBY 2H stop +.01
[14:52] {dino} out ppo .43 -.27
01[14:54] {Threei}  FB isa so dead
[14:55] {Les} short GDX short BBYX
[14:55] {Les} took FB on .20 recross if I'd followed SOP's I'd still be in
[14:55] {Les} stupid is a stupid does
[14:56] {dino} happens to us all les
[14:56] {Les} partial cover bby .51
[15:00] {Les} cover bby .41
[15:01] {Les} support here bby some consolidation and maybe new short opp
01[15:01] {Threei}  still Les... what I see in your trading now is night and day vs before
[15:02] {Les} yeh 4 years on and off trading
[15:02] {Les} pulled togethor by the magic of big pharma
[15:02] {Les} and some focus
[15:03] {Les} it's interesting
[15:03] {Les} that Ritelin gives me focus to think
[15:03] {Les} and to see my thinking is not helping
[15:03] {Les} since taking ritalin
[15:03] {Les} have focus to review trading daily
[15:03] {Les} find errors
[15:03] {Les} correct them
[15:04] {Les} before it was
[15:04] {dino} gj les
[15:04] {Les} "why the frik vad can do it but I can't"
01[15:04] {Threei}  I couldn't understand it too
[15:04] {Les} imagine years of problems with our boy too
[15:04] {Les} couldn't understand why
[15:04] {Les} at school
[15:05] {Les} like looking in the mirror
[15:05] {dino} i've heard of college kids popping ritalin before tests
01[15:06] {Threei}  kids these days... what happened to good old vodka shot
[15:06] {Les} night and day taking ritalin vs alcohol
[15:06] {dino} i'm w/ya vad. tequila is my cocaine
[15:06] {Les} years been trading with vad 3pm to 10 pm
[15:07] {Les} and most nights a glass in hand
[15:07] {Les} realise now it was depressing brain function
[15:07] {Les} not a frikin word nemo
01[15:07] {Threei}  rofl
[15:07] {dino} wow, i just joke about drinking during trading hours.
[15:07] {Les} bitch trading nights
01[15:07] {Threei}  well, depressing brain function is exactly what I use it for, so...
01[15:08] {Threei}  nemo used to use it for that purpose as well, but lately found there is nothing to depress anymore
[15:08] {Les} well he is depression personified
06[15:09] * Threei high-fives himself, for the lack of anyone else to high-five him
[15:09] {Les} how does one depress depression, brain or no brain
[15:09] {Les} oh come on, let me get to punch line first
01[15:09] {Threei}  mine is in already
[15:12] {Les} SLW tightening for a move at 29
[15:12] {Les} I'm short GDX .24 but no longer sure of direction
[15:12] {Les} stop to .30
[15:14] {Les} looks like BBY plays out some more tomorrow
06[15:20] * nemo loads up his large capacity magazines
01[15:20] {Threei}  oops
06[15:20] * nemo reaches for the 200 round drum
[15:20] {Les} better send a letter bomb bunny boy
[15:20] {Les} big vol. GDX comgin in
[15:20] {nemo} I'm doing you by hand
01[15:20] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .60 break
[15:21] {Les} huge vol. in GDX
[15:22] {Les} BBY trying to break higher
[15:22] {nemo} spy at pivot and vwap, iwm at pivot and 5o day, be interesting to see if anything happens at 3:30...kinda doubt it
[15:25] {Les} bby sm short .85
[15:26] {dino} guess i should've held bcei, ppo
[15:27] {Les} bby stopped -.12
01[15:28] {Threei} Short Setup: C  .70 break
01[15:28] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:29] {Threei}  .80 us better stop but time will become an issue soon
[15:29] {nemo} now pdce takes off
[15:32] {Les} interesting currency reversal if follows thru tomorrow
[15:32] {Les} GDX stopped -.07
[15:33] {nemo} wtf...pdce
01[15:45] {Threei}  come on C, what's with teasing
01[15:49] {Threei}  half out
01[15:49] {Threei}  stop to .71
[15:50] {Les} a final bounce in BBY may produce a lower high here worth shorting
[15:52] {nemo} mmmmhhhh....looks like the market expecting good numbers tomorrow
01[15:56] {Threei}  ok... done
[15:56] {Will49} Have good evening guys
01[15:56] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:56] {Les} cheers
01[15:56] {Threei}  boring a bit but still positive day
01[15:56] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {nemo} finnies finish at the highs, we go higher tomorrow
[15:59] {dino} giddy-up
[16:00] {dino} gn
[16:02] {Les} cheers

Apr 3 2013

 Another very strong day with many nice plays. As usual, our performance is way above average on down days. Miners and PMs help, with shorts on GDX and SLW alone making the day.

Session Time: Wed Apr 03 00:00:00 2013
01[09:15] {Threei}  yawn
01[09:15] {Threei}  time to accept reality
[09:16] {cipher} gm
01[09:16] {Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:17] {Threei}  read this and weep: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html
[09:17] {_doublertrading} Morning all
01[09:18] {Threei}  doubler :)
[09:18] {_doublertrading} I got mIRC set up and set it to make an alert sound when you type a message Vad :)
[09:19] {backman} gm
01[09:19] {Threei}  backman :)
[09:19] {Will49} gm
01[09:19] {Threei}  you can even narrow it to beeping only when word "setup" is typed, so it alerts you to calls only
01[09:19] {Threei}  will :)
[09:20] {_doublertrading} Thanks for the tip Vad
[09:22] {Les} Yo
[09:22] {Alexs} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  les, alex :)
[09:24] {jdetente} good morning
01[09:24] {Threei}  jd :)
[09:27] {ese} gm
01[09:27] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: BBRY  .90 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  15
[09:32] {Les} fade?
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .60 break
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:33] {Threei}  I won't, don't view BBRY as long
01[09:34] {Threei}  GDX to .66
01[09:35] {Threei}  out
01[09:36] {Threei}  BBRY is valid
[09:37] {Les} FB rocketing
[09:38] {Les} ebay short .80?
[09:38] {Les} hl?
01[09:39] {Threei}  let's keep questions for after first 30-40 min pls
[09:39] {Les} k
01[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .30 break hl
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:42] {Threei}  BBRY 1:1
01[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: LCS  .20 break hl
01[09:47] {Threei}  LVS
01[09:47] {Threei}  1:1 in a hurry
01[09:48] {Threei}  in such a hurry that not many could enter
[09:48] {Les} got it
[09:48] {jdetente} got it
01[09:48] {Threei}  :)
[09:48] {Will49} missed
01[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:49] {Threei}  nicely looking double top
01[09:50] {Threei}  and hold the jokes about how it's drastically different frpm nicely looking double bottom
[09:50] {Les} covered lvs .02
01[09:50] {Threei}  LVS 1:3
01[09:50] {Threei}  1:4 I mean
[09:51] {jdetente} covered all at .90. thanks Vad
01[09:51] {Threei}  yw
[09:51] {Les} half shares nothing left beyond 1:2 but still welcome ty
01[09:51] {Threei}  FB 1:1
01[09:54] {Threei}  wow LVS
01[09:55] {Threei}  (US) Preview: US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite data expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 55.5e v 56.0 prior (prior was highest reading since Feb 2012)
[09:57] {nemo} cat looks short under .40
01[09:59] {Threei}  FB 1:2
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) MAR ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 54.4 V 55.5E
[10:00] {nemo} see if nominal news is bought
01[10:01] {Threei}  - New Orders: 54.6 v 58.2 prior - Employment: 53.3 v 57.2 prior (lowest level since November)
[10:01] {backman} FB might be an all day short....FWIW
01[10:01] {Threei}  nice call CAT, nemo
01[10:01] {Threei}  FB 1:3, out
[10:02] {jdetente} good call Vad. thanks
01[10:02] {Threei}  ese, this play was devoted to you and your perma-hatred for FB :)
01[10:02] {Threei}  yw
[10:02] {Will49} tks Vad on FB
01[10:02] {Threei}  :)
[10:04] {ese} tks.......
[10:05] {Les} slw giddy up or potential dt
01[10:05] {Threei}  wow CAT
01[10:06] {Threei}  hard to tell SLW
01[10:06] {Threei}  it acts as SPY hedge again
[10:06] {Will49} oh, oh, oh..what a little downgrade can do ooh, ooh
[10:07] {Will49} that's supposed to be musical
01[10:08] {Threei}  ah
01[10:08] {Threei}  Cats?
[10:08] {Will49} ese would get it
01[10:08] {Threei}  or Les Miserables?
[10:08] {Will49} song is....what a little moonlight will do
[10:09] {Will49} from the 30s
[10:09] {Will49} you young wippersnappers!!!
[10:09] {jdetente} now that's OLDschool
[10:09] {Les} my am I miserable?
01[10:10] {Threei}  ask Hugo...
[10:10] {nemo} insufferable
[10:10] {_doublertrading} Nice trades so far Vad..
[10:10] {Les} love u too Nemo
01[10:10] {Threei}  ty
[10:10] {nemo} they should name a terminal disease after you
[10:10] {ese} I hat cats.......am alergic
[10:11] {jdetente} don't hate the kitty ese
[10:11] {Will49} i ahte them and i'm not even allergic to them
[10:11] {Will49} hate
[10:11] {Will49} cats are evil
[10:12] {jdetente} https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXvcrFYunHZ0JAr-VwrDOCOOelThhmJZFcQcOy028mhPjzREScsIPBo7WcSn9PPRCdc8PswAtOxB1a4vDsLIKxikATjrz7pC0lk-L5G7VoHFmbsLoDXb3vB6FNUhKsyeHZkXZV1vc5jdKx/s400/EvilCat.jpg
01[10:12] {Threei}  ever looked at people?
[10:13] {Will49} just cause they look adorable.....
[10:13] {Will49} doesn't mean they're not evil
01[10:13] {Threei}  exactly - people don't even look the part
01[10:13] {Threei}  so, between the two...
[10:14] {backman} VOD
01[10:14] {Threei}  CAT bounce time very soon
01[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .70 break hl
01[10:15] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:15] {Threei}  1:1
[10:16] {ese} ok JD you win........thats one cute little kitty
01[10:16] {Threei}  I partially take that back... some people do look adorable
[10:16] {Will49} tks Vad
01[10:16] {Threei}  1:2, out
01[10:16] {Threei}  they tend to be of the opposite gender though
[10:17] {Will49} oh....
01[10:17] {Threei}  :)
[10:17] {jdetente} but Vad they usually end up being the most evil in the long run...haha
01[10:17] {Threei}  1:3... exited too soon
01[10:17] {Threei}  oh yes... I was talking about looks only :)
[10:17] {jdetente} ah yes
[10:18] {jdetente} it's like the old song...
[10:18] {jdetente} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh9ZZgDqzAg
01[10:25] {Threei}  to finish with the topic, how evil is this: http://goo.gl/URkqh
[10:25] {nemo} one of my favorites
[10:27] {Will49} mouse crapped out
01[10:27] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .45 break
[10:27] {Les} nice evil
01[10:28] {Threei}  you missed the image of a very nicelooking evil, will
01[10:28] {Threei}  hl
01[10:28] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:29] {nemo} like len below .25
01[10:29] {Threei}  two-sided
[10:29] {nemo} yeah, but think roof around .45
[10:33] {Les} slw .60 short holding .70?
[10:33] {nemo} market died
01[10:33] {Threei}  yes SLW
[10:33] {nemo} http://slate.me/XMBl2W
01[10:36] {Threei}  LEN works
[10:37] {nemo} mpc, a bit spready
[10:38] {nemo} RHT
[10:38] {dino} gpn sm l .26
[10:40] {dino} a;k sm l .01
[10:40] {dino} alk
01[10:41] {Threei}  1:1 SLW
[10:41] {nemo} jpm to test the whole
01[10:42] {Threei}  btw, if you took "two-sided" comment as one about RIG, that worked too, lol
[10:42] {_doublertrading} Nice trade
[10:42] {Les} and RIG short at the lows here?
[10:42] {Les} .25?
01[10:43] {Threei}  hl, yes
01[10:44] {Threei}  now, to add a new flavor to cute and evil topic, let's talk about Platypus... http://goo.gl/qqG4f
[10:44] {backman} VOD at dl
[10:44] {Les} have off with ya
[10:44] {Les} leave the aussie stuff alone
01[10:45] {Threei}  ok... tasmanian evil?
01[10:45] {Threei}  that's far from cute though
[10:45] {Les} yeh Tasmanian's are fair game
[10:45] {ese} oh all right......those are cute too
[10:46] {nemo} I'd argue iwm spy fas long here
01[10:48] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .50 break
01[10:48] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:52] {Les} gold longs final defence
[10:52] {Les} the march bottom
[10:52] {Les} should make em spew up some volume
01[10:53] {Threei}  GDX 1:1
[10:55] {nemo} jpm
[10:55] {dino} out gpn .75, +.49
[10:56] {backman} nice
01[10:56] {Threei}  wtg
[10:56] {dino} ty
[10:58] {Les} SLW covered 1:2
[11:02] {nemo} look for HUM bounce 80.65ish
[11:08] {nemo} .66ish
[11:10] {Will49} tks Les for SLW...out
[11:11] {nemo} btw...from a self-defense point of view, if you don't know anything, carry a small 300 lumen or greater flashlight.  Flash that in someone's eyes and they won't see shit.  Then pick up a 2X4 and whack them in the head
[11:12] {nemo} even in daylight
[11:15] {Les} triple D maglite'll do both
[11:15] {nemo} can't carry that in your pocket
[11:15] {nemo} then again, you use that as a ....nevermind
[11:15] {Les} ?
[11:16] {nemo} mpc setup
[11:16] {nemo} two way
[11:16] {ese} finally.......some advice from this board that I can use.........will try that out on some unsuspecting stranger tonight
[11:17] {nemo} let me know how the 2X4 aspect works out
[11:17] {ese} done
[11:17] {Les} cover 3/4 GDX .40 1/4 .31 ty
[11:17] {Les} gonna do some aikido tonight
[11:17] {Les} decent morning c ya's
[11:18] {ese} take care les
[11:19] {backman} VOD mite be bounceable 6:1 hl
[11:20] {ese} interesting B........am lookin at that......how do you figure the 6:1
[11:20] {backman} 28.8 high
[11:22] {ese} hmmmmmm...me thinks it's gonna have to cross above the 50ma 1min before it makes any kind of a run to 28.8
[11:23] {backman} not looking for 28.2...perhaps 2:1
[11:23] {ese} or double bottom or higher lows or something......and then mrkt help.....which doesn't look to promising today
[11:24] {ese} i like looking for this kind of play on mrkt up days
[11:27] {nemo} looking to short PSX
[11:28] {nemo} could short here stop above 63, noext place would be in 63.50 area
[11:28] {nemo} europe closes in 2 minutes
[11:35] {ese} interesting day......have had my hand on the trigger a couple of times but nothing
[11:36] {Will49} keep both your hands on the table ese
[11:37] {ese} done
01[11:41] {Threei}  sheesh... poor goldbugs
01[11:41] {Threei}  miners are getting slaughtered again
[11:43] {Will49} Cara followers not happy
01[11:47] {Threei}  (CY) Cyprus reportedly to issue statement on capital cotrols later today; controls expected to be extended another 7 days
01[11:47] {Threei}  lol
01[11:47] {Threei}  you may make them permanent just as well
01[11:47] {Threei}  whenever you lift it, money runs
[11:59] {nemo} anf here long to retest 47 might be worth it
[12:00] {nemo} tza would be worth a long here too
01[12:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break
01[12:08] {Threei}  If holds  .55
01[12:08] {Threei}  low risk reversal attempt
01[12:14] {Threei}  meh
[12:14] {nemo} not even worth going long the miners
01[12:14] {Threei}  or not meh yet
[12:15] {_doublertrading} Don't speak too soon :)
01[12:15] {Threei}  ok, meh :)
01[12:15] {Threei}  miners as industry probably don;t exist anymore
01[12:15] {Threei}  just some symbols are still trading on exchanges, by pure inertia
[12:24] {dino} ouch mpc
[12:24] {dino} 10 buck day and half
01[12:25] {Threei}  things set in motion tend to move...
01[12:25] {Threei}  anfd move...
01[12:25] {Threei}  and move...
01[12:26] {Threei}  but hey, idiots will tell you "buy low because it so very low vs yesterday"
01[12:27] {Threei}  they don't understand that this concwepts denies existence of trends
01[12:28] {Threei}  when they realize that oversold gets oversolder until it gets oversoldest, and then sells some more, they lose their shirt
01[12:28] {Threei}  but I shouldn't complain too much because idiots is what helps us make a living
[12:29] {dino} are you calling a trend change based on 2 days?
[12:29] {_doublertrading} :)
01[12:29] {Threei}  me?
[12:29] {dino} yes
01[12:30] {Threei}  I don't know how to answer that, it's not what I talked about
[12:30] {dino} ok, i misunderstood. thought you were talking markets
01[12:31] {Threei}  no, MPC
01[12:31] {Threei}  trend takes it lower and lower
01[12:31] {Threei}  market overall is still in uptrend, big picture wise
01[12:31] {Threei}  until it forms clear top formation
01[12:32] {Threei}  for now it's still what nemo calls BTFD
[12:33] {dino} tol gap filled jan
[12:35] {dino} sm l .25
[12:46] {backman} VOD....wish i was trading today :=(
[12:47] {nemo} lulu looks good short here
[12:49] {dino} they way they are knocking construction, trannies, oils, and airlines last few days, you'd think economy died
01[12:50] {Threei}  it zombied
[12:50] {nemo} probably get spy bounce attempt here
01[12:50] {Threei}  one more leg down I think, nemo
01[12:50] {Threei}  then vicious bounce
[12:51] {nemo} I said it would attempt, finnies important place too, and iwm just below 50 day
[12:52] {nemo} time of day perfect for inflection too
01[12:53] {Threei}  59% Say Another 2008 Financial Meltdown Likely
01[12:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break
01[12:59] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:03] {Threei}  valid still
01[13:06] {Threei}  ready LVS? let's go
[13:08] {backman} watching BBRY below 15.10 stop 15.25
[13:09] {nemo} why does a Masshole have such an affinity for a canuck company?
01[13:15] {Threei}  holding by fingernails
[13:15] {nemo} getting algo'd to death at these levels
[13:23] {_doublertrading} Hey guys just back, are you still in the LVS trade Vad?
01[13:25] {Threei}  yes
01[13:26] {Threei}  I would swear about it, but wqill will tell me I am emotional
01[13:26] {Threei}  and I am not!!!!!
[13:26] {Will49} close but no cigar
01[13:26] {Threei}  Finding Nemo sequel in works
[13:26] {nemo} ?
[13:26] {nemo} leave me alone
[13:26] {Will49} depends on how you hold your mouth when you say "yes"
01[13:26] {Threei}  yeah, I dunno why they try so hard
01[13:27] {Threei}  we find him easy to find
01[13:27] {Threei}  and delicious
[13:28] {nemo} Willl....mmmhhhhh....worried
01[13:29] {Threei}  stopped
[13:30] {Will49} nemo...leave me alone
[13:31] {Will49} soon as Les leaves, you start picking on me
[13:32] {nemo} anybody like cree short here
[13:33] {nemo} oooohhhh SPY big boy bar!!!!
[13:33] {dino} tol stop
[13:34] {nemo} they're trying to put a bottom in
[13:35] {nemo} o.k...time to shoot the women and children and throw them overboard
[13:35] {Will49} that's not right
[13:35] {nemo} alright....shoot the old timers
[13:36] {nemo} that's another serious bar
[13:38] {nemo} now we're at the bottom of the SPY channel
01[13:40] {Threei}  anyone is able to understand and explain to me in easy terms this bitcoin thingy?
01[13:40] {Threei}  my fibble mind seems to have troubles wrapping around it
01[13:47] {Threei}  I guess not
[13:47] {Will49} can't help you Vad...sorry
[13:47] {Will49} my mind is feeble too
[13:48] {Will49} (opening for nemo)
01[13:48] {Threei}  ok... two feeble minds are looking for help
[13:48] {_doublertrading} ive looked into it a bit Vad, but i have to head off now, thanks alot for the trades. Bitcoin is basically a digital decentralized currency, check this video for an introduction
[13:48] {nemo} obvious and offered openings are no fun
[13:48] {Will49} two feeble minds don't make a right mind
[13:48] {_doublertrading} https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Um63OQz3bjo
[13:48] {_doublertrading} Thanks again, catch you tomorrow all!
[13:49] {Will49} bye doubler
[13:49] {dino} cya
01[13:49] {Threei}  take care doubler
[13:50] {dino} vsi sm l .40
[13:55] {nemo} well now or never girls
[13:56] {dino} xoom sm l .68 ave
[13:58] {backman} if you're of a mind, take a look at BBRY or CAT
[13:59] {nemo} I hear that giant flushing sound
01[13:59] {Threei}  new lows are about to be made
[14:00] {backman} from 15.10, already at 1:1
[14:02] {backman} i would keep a tight stop at 15.25
01[14:10] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  34 break
01[14:10] {Threei}  believe it or not
[14:13] {Will49} the Ripley trade
[14:13] {backman} shorting BBRY....wide stop of 15.30
[14:34] {dino} alk sm l .99 ave
[14:34] {Les} wow death in the miners
[14:35] {dino} wgo sm l .01
[14:38] {dino} out xoom .85, +.45
[14:39] {dino} f#ck. wrong stock. dumb
[14:39] {dino} +.17
[14:41] {dino} out vsi .83, +.43
[14:46] {Les} SLW vwap is here
01[14:50] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .50 break
01[14:50] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[14:51] {Les} great post from Brandt
[14:51] {Les} black or white
[14:51] {Les} up or down
[14:51] {Les} buy or sell
01[14:51] {Threei}  any blogger that calls his readers idiots gets my respect by default :)
[14:54] {Les} seems a number of bloggers changing how they interact with their readers
[14:55] {Les} sm. GDX short .59 stop is clear
01[14:56] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
01[14:56] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[14:57] {Les} cover half GDX .51
01[14:59] {Threei}  Deutsche Bank AG Germany's Bundesbank is said to have launched a probe of Deutsche Bank over hidden losses incurred during the financial crisis - FT- Bundesbank investigators alledge that misvaluing credit derivatives allowed Deutsche to hide up to $12B in losses, helping it avoid a government bailout.
[14:59] {Les} does that crap come out on purpose in run up to federal elections?
[15:06] {dino} vrx drop
[15:07] {dino} sm l .93
[15:07] {dino} out vrx .55, +.62
[15:07] {Will49} no moss gathering on dino
[15:07] {dino} lucky
01[15:07] {Threei}  lol
[15:08] {dino} vrx sm l .10
[15:09] {dino} out .98 -.12
[15:09] {Will49} just bad luck
[15:10] {dino} vrx sm l .52
[15:10] {dino} out .00, +.48
[15:11] {Will49} that's better
[15:11] {dino} thanks, lol
01[15:11] {Threei}  you keep him straight and narrow will
[15:11] {Will49} i'm watchin' you
[15:11] {Will49} not learning anything...but watching anyway
[15:12] {Les} GDX 2H stopped
[15:12] {Will49} I recant...i did learn not to touch those real spready trades
01[15:13] {Threei}  it's a ery specific way to trade
[15:13] {Will49} guess i really learned that from you Vad
01[15:13] {Threei}  highly effective when you have a lot of experience
01[15:14] {Threei}  but you better have a good supply of diapers while learning
[15:14] {dino} quick or the dead style
01[15:14] {Threei}  and ice in your veins when execute
01[15:14] {Threei}  let emotions in, you are deader than a doornail
[15:15] {nemo} sell offer, buy bid
[15:15] {Will49} that why you don't trade that way Vad :)
[15:15] {dino} wgo stop .75 -.25
[15:15] {Will49} too emotional?
[15:16] {Les} lol
01[15:16] {Threei}  lol, that's me
[15:16] {Will49} kidding of course
01[15:17] {Threei}  jumping up and down 3 times while pushing buy button... suffocating and screaming while pushing sell
[15:17] {dino} vrx sm l .62
[15:17] {Les} hehehe
[15:17] {Will49} no...that's ME vad
01[15:17] {Threei}  spitting at my screen inbetween
[15:17] {Les} thank god we don't have skype with camera...
01[15:17] {Threei}  buying new wipers for my monitors once a week
[15:17] {Will49} LOL
01[15:17] {Threei}  throwing keyboard out of the window
[15:17] {dino} stop .55, -.07
01[15:18] {Threei}  what else do I do...
01[15:18] {Threei}  kicking neighbor's dog
[15:18] {dino} going for 71.45s gap
[15:18] {Will49} i saw that pile of old keyboards outside your house last summer
[15:18] {dino} hmmm, or not
01[15:18] {Threei}  right
01[15:19] {Threei}  crap, someone reading the trading log might take it all seriously :)
[15:19] {dino} sm l .40
[15:20] {Les} insert yer declaimer here
[15:20] {Les} disclaimer
[15:20] {dino} stop is lod break
[15:20] {dino} stop
[15:20] {Will49} your stalker from last week seems to have given up Vad
01[15:21] {Threei}  reshi?
[15:21] {Will49} yes
01[15:21] {Threei}  well, 5 yuernames later he finally realized his games are too transparent :)
01[15:21] {Threei}  usernames
01[15:21] {Threei}  but not before he tried to blackmail me
01[15:22] {Threei}  "I'll go to another room then"
01[15:22] {Threei}  I don't respond well to blackmail...
[15:23] {Les} dumbass
[15:23] {dino} vrx sm l .59
01[15:23] {Threei}  or to idiots
01[15:23] {Threei}  die already SLW
[15:24] {dino} out .69, +.10
[15:24] {Les} vad GDX characterised as triple top? or just a rinse? or both?
[15:25] {dino} sm l .35
01[15:25] {Threei}  don't overanalyze it
01[15:25] {Threei}  emotions run high
01[15:25] {Threei}  volatility reflects it
[15:25] {Les} pushing and shoving
[15:25] {Les} k
01[15:25] {Threei}  right
[15:28] {Les} half out ty
[15:28] {dino} out .85 +.50
01[15:28] {Threei}  wtg
[15:28] {dino} ty
01[15:29] {Threei}  SLW les?
[15:29] {Les} yeh
01[15:29] {Threei}  :)
[15:29] {Les} now give me 1:2 for a great finish
01[15:30] {Threei}  it just has to
[15:30] {nemo} wow, cree on the edge
01[15:33] {Threei}  1:2
[15:36] {Les} all out on half shares in order to preserve morning profits, so I am done ty vad
[15:36] {Les} trading becomes a little more consistent
[15:36] {Will49} yea..me too Vad, not risking any more
[15:36] {Will49} excellent day
01[15:37] {Threei}  yw guys
[15:37] {Les} see you all tomorrow
01[15:37] {Threei}  making money calmly and confidently, while the world suffers in pain
01[15:37] {Threei}  1:3 baby
01[15:37] {Threei}  I am out here
[15:37] {Les} don't rub salt in investors wounds today vad :)
01[15:37] {Threei}  hmmm
01[15:38] {Threei}  what do I do for kicks then?
[15:38] {jdetente} yes thank you Vad for the trades
01[15:38] {Threei}  :)
[15:38] {jdetente} now will continue drinking poolside hehe
[15:38] {Les} cheers
01[15:38] {Threei}  have one for me please
[15:39] {Will49} days like this give me feeling that I might make it as a trader
[15:39] {Will49} but then again, there's always tomorrow
01[15:39] {Threei}  lol
01[15:41] {Threei}  aww... it still drops
[15:42] {Will49} poor TSX is bleeding profusely
01[15:42] {Threei}  backman, covering BBRY?
01[15:43] {Threei}  somehow loonie is holding about flat, will
01[15:43] {Threei}  we need it to crash
01[15:43] {Threei}  and burn
01[15:43] {Threei}  and die
01[15:43] {Threei}  and bleed while dying
[15:43] {Will49} :)
[15:44] {backman} yes 1:1 from 15.06 entry
01[15:44] {Threei}  cool
[15:44] {Will49} don't we want loonie high for our Maui trips?
[15:44] {Will49} Big Island for you
01[15:45] {Threei}  ohm I don't care about that - I simply don't convert part of profits, using it directly from USD account for such things
[15:45] {Will49} well, i care :)
[15:46] {Will49} I'll catch up with you one day Vad
[15:48] {Will49} I have a US account also but would only take me to Port Angeles at the moment
01[15:48] {Threei}  (KR) North Korea army has reportedly received its final approvals necessary for a nuclear attack on the United States
01[15:48] {Threei}  sigh
[15:48] {Will49} what a crock
[15:49] {Will49} and i don't mean crocodile
01[15:51] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:51] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:51] {Will49} Cheers
[15:51] {dino} sad thing is, we will end up giving north korea billions in oil and food to make them stop threats. happens ever few years
01[15:52] {Threei}  this time it will be different...
[15:52] {dino} heard that before
01[15:52] {Threei}  {--- made a joke
[15:52] {dino} :)
01[15:52] {Threei}  take care dino :)
[15:53] {dino} u2 buddy
[15:57] {dino} out alk flat

April - May 2013 Outlook

TradeTheNews.com  THIS Time It's Different…

The next two months will be about whether 2013 can break some of the patterns seen in the last few years. 2011 and 2012 both began with great optimism, getting off to strong starts with improving economic indicators, only to falter in the second quarter. Hope springs eternal and expectations are that this year will break that pattern and avoid the spring slump. The US economy is showing particularly good signs -employment trends are on a better than expected trajectory and confidence indicators are largely on the rise. Japan, where the tsunami disaster derailed recovery hopes in March 2011, is now riding high on hopes that an unprecedented stimulus program will move its economy into a higher orbit after a two decade stall. Neighboring China is entering a more subdued phase for its economy as a new government seeks to put its imprimatur on the world's second largest economy. Europe has tamed its crisis in the last year, though events in Cyprus last month made it clear there's more work to do, and economic stagnation is worsening in some parts of the continent.

One key difference this year is that central banks are more active than ever. As the fiscal authorities continue to struggle with right-sizing their austerity programs, the economic recovery clearly rests on a cushion of monetary stimulus. Central bankers in the US, Japan, England, and the Euro Zone have all committed to record stimulus programs and some are ready to take it even further.

Japan Takes a Different Tack

April starts off with a bang as Japan's fiscal year begins, and the BOJ holds its first policy setting meeting under new management. At the April 3-4 BOJ policy meeting, newly minted governor Kuroda is expected to set his plan in motion, which could include pooling monthly bond purchases and the asset purchase fund, and using the funds to buy more longer dated debt. He may also accelerate the start date of open ended asset purchases that are currently slated to begin next January.

Kuroda has built up big expectations, vowing to do "whatever it takes" to end 15 years of deflation and reach the 2% inflation target within two years. Some respected Japanese economists, including advocates of greater stimulus, are casting doubts on whether a more active BOJ can achieve that aggressive goal so rapidly, with some suggesting it may take 5 years or more to get to the 2% inflation target, especially in light of higher sales taxes set to kick in over the next two years which are expected to crimp consumer spending. The sales tax will double in two stages from the current 5%, to 8% next year and then 10% in October 2015, so the BOJ stimulus plan will have to be grand enough to offset that drag.

With the yen already weakening and Japanese stocks rising in anticipation of the BOJ moves, failure to go big or to act swiftly on some of these measures could risk disappointment in the markets. Speaking to that point, Prime Minister Abe recently hedged his bets, saying it is possible that the 2% inflation target may not be achieved within two years, and that he is not calling on the BOJ to act recklessly just to meet that timetable.

Europe: "Differently Abled"

After the BOJ makes its fateful decisions on bolstering stimulus, next up is the European Central Bank. The ECB has two main issues to contend with - policy missteps that have fanned the coals of the crisis and euro zone states that are unable to shake off anemic economic data.

The troika's ham-handed bailout of Cyprus shook the notion that the euro zone crisis was fully contained. Fearing a string of sovereign bailouts threaten to turn the EMU into a "transfer union," northern European states pushed for a "bail in" component that would ensure weaker nations pay their dues for any future bailout package. In Cyprus this translated into the ill-conceived initial agreement that would levy a tax on all bank account holders, even those below the sacrosanct deposit insurance threshold of 100 thousand euros. Even though the levy was ultimately shifted to larger depositors, the Cyprus plan has created the threat of instant bank runs at the first whiff of trouble. For example, should Spain give the slightest hint of considering a full bailout program (as it seemed to a year ago before opting for a bank-focused recap fund), Spanish depositors would rush to secure their savings to avoid losing them to a potential "bail in."

A barrage of weak data has plagued much of the euro zone. For the EMU as a whole, unemployment has climbed from 10% a year ago to 12%, and PMI has been in contraction for over a year. Northern states have been faring better, but the southern nations, including France have been forced to trim GDP forecasts and delay expectations for returning deficit to GDP ratios back below 3%. If these data trends don't improve soon, Europe's woes could drag down the global recovery and force the ECB into more action.

Political instability has also been an enemy to economic recovery. Italy's government has been in limbo since inconclusive elections over a month ago. Three major blocks split most of the vote about equally, including the 5-Star Party's protest vote garnering 25%, and have been unwilling to join each other in a broad coalition government. It now appears likely that President Napolitano will have to call another election, perhaps in June, though it's unclear if the result would end the deadlock. Italy may eventually have to opt for another technocratic regime, but until a working government is formed uncertainty will run high in Italy.

These pressures have led the ECB toward considering another unprecedented action, namely cutting rates to zero or lower. In recent press conferences, ECB President Draghi has indicated that the bank has discussed the possibility of cutting its key rate below 0.25%, is operationally ready to do so, and could even consider negative interest rates. As the issue has been contemplated over the last year, most ECB officials seem to agree that a zero rate could create beneficial flows from fiscally sound countries with excess cash to peripheral nations whose troubled banks could borrow the funds, but that resorting to negative deposit rates might create unintended consequences including damaging Europe's 1.1 trillion euro money market industry. The ECB is also said to be looking at easing collateral rules, though it raises concerns about further weakening the central bank's balance sheet.

On a smaller scale, the BOE is struggling with poor economic indicators in the UK, which haven't been helped by the government's latest budget reaffirming austerity as its guiding principle. How the tightening purse strings play out in the UK economy may set the tone for the rest of Europe which has been shrinking away from its initial fiscal consolidation plans on fears it will extend recession. So far, readings of industrial production and manufacturing in the UK have not been promising, which is a flashing green light for more quantitative easing. The BOE could add another £25 billion to its existing £375 billion QE program as early as its April 4 meeting. Governor King, who will be replaced in July by current BOC chief Carney, has called for an additional £25 billion in QE at each of the last two policy setting meetings.

A Little Fed Makes All the Difference

With the BOJ, ECB and BOE on the verge of building on to their already unprecedented stimulus programs, the Fed seems content with the status quo after it opened the taps fully with "QE-infinity" late last year. Shifting to economic thresholds instead of calendar based forecasts successfully moved market focus back to economic data and expectations rather than fixating on a specific end date for accommodation. The Fed has made it clear as well that the thresholds are not automatic triggers for a policy change, and at his last press conference Chairman Bernanke even suggested that the thresholds could be shifted as a way to create more stimulus if necessary (e.g. lowering the unemployment threshold from 6.5%).

Thus the jobs outlook is more important than ever. In the last couple months unemployment data has become demonstrably better, enough to cause the Fed to trim its forecast for the central tendency of 2013 unemployment. One month of much better than expected payrolls data in the early March report created expectations that net new jobs will start rolling in at over 200 thousand a month on a consistent basis. The three month average of the last three months is still below the strong reports posted in Q1 of 2012, however, so market watchers may be putting the cart before the horse. Two more readings above that key 200 thousand level in early April and May could convince skeptics that the spring swoon will not repeat this year and put us on track for a better second half of 2013.

Differential Equations

The successful return of the DJIA and S&P500 to record levels seems to support the revival of the trope that global markets may be decoupling. The reanimation of the euro zone crisis caused by the mishandling of the Cyprus bailout only seemed to reinforce the idea that the US is a safer place to invest than Europe. Many analysts are now making the case that the global economy is in a unique phase that could allow the US economy to start hitting on all cylinders while Asia sputters and Europe is stalled.

At least temporarily, the political temperature on Washington has cooled. Partisans have accepted the sequester cuts in stride and are perpetuating them while Democrats and Republicans work on a longer term budget agreement. The truce centers on another round of "kicking-the-can" - Congress passed a continuing resolution that provides funding through the end of the fiscal year, September 30, averting a government shutdown. The GOP still has the option of turning up the rhetoric around the debt ceiling, which was suspended until May 19 as part of the last kicked-can, but they may be unwilling to risk another sovereign rating warning that may result from this tactic.

In this relatively calm political environment, US equity markets have fallen into a complacent melt-up mode undergirded by the Fed's QE3 program. There appear to be no good alternatives to stocks - cash has eroding value, gold has fallen along with crisis fears, and bond yields are miniscule. The VIX volatility index has dropped to multi-year lows, and shows no signs of concerns even in futures contracts ranging out to late 2013.

Not to be forgotten, another earning season is upon us. Companies will have to demonstrate they deserve expanding multiples by putting up solid results despite the global malaise and incremental setbacks like the loss of some government funding because of the sequestration (which is now set to continue through September unless a grand budget deal is forged).

A few warning signs are emerging in the metals market, including a potential glut in copper production. Copper futures are near one-year lows, a concerning indicator for industry. The weakness in copper is reflective of weaker than expected manufacturing data in China, the top consumer of copper. Meanwhile silver futures have just officially entered a bear market, dropping 20% off of September highs, a bad omen for gold, which has been slumping for six months and has fallen more than 10% in that period. In the energy complex, the price of oil probably won't garner much attention unless WTI returns to $100 per barrel, a level that could be seen as a hindrance to economic expansion. As always, a surprise escalation in Iran or North Korea could play havoc with the commodity markets.

Split the Difference

As the spring quarter opens, every corner of the global economy is faced with difficult questions. Will the sequestration begin to bite harder in the US and will the D.C. pugilists at least keep their gloves on? Can Europe withstand economic data getting any worse even as it helplessly watches the Italian political fiasco? Can the new Japanese regime stir together the right recipe to reinvigorate the country's economy, a feat that has eluded leaders for two decades, inducing governments in Toyko to change almost as often as the seasons? Will a disappointing string of data, another unexpected macro event, or even the "sell in May" platitude trigger yet another spring swoon?

Three months into 2013, these questions have yet to be answered, but things seem to be a little better than the last two springs. Equity markets continue to attract money flows though the anticipated "great rotation" out of bonds and into stocks has yet to begin in earnest as retail investors still fear getting burned again. Treasury yields in the most favored nations are still extraordinarily low, but there's no obvious catalyst yet to prick the "bubble" of the 20 year bond rally. History favors stocks in the short term - over the last six decades, April has been has been the best performing month of the year for the DJIA with an average gain of 2%, and the Industrials haven't registered a decline in any of the last seven Aprils. The expectation that the BOJ will open the flood gates for stimulus has buoyed the Nikkei Index for several months, and any perceived shortcomings in the actual BOJ policy announcement will only steer investment dollars back toward the US stocks.

The biggest note of caution for the next few months may lie in the central banks being victims of their own success. If economic data start to turn dramatically better, monetary policy efforts will get most of the credit. But too much success could have a stiff price as the markets start to recalibrate the timing of the eventual unwinding of accommodative policy. Central banks do not appear to be in a hurry to stop what they are doing, and some are just starting to go full tilt, but if they get a burst of faster than expected positive results, much of that progress could be lost as markets try to anticipate the pivot toward the exit strategy. Ultimately better data would be a positive, but the perception that it all rides on the back of extraordinary stimulus that will eventually be withdrawn makes all the difference.


CALENDAR

APRIL
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI; BOJ Policy Statement
4: ECB policy statement; BOE rate statement; Bernanke and 3 other FOMC members speak
5: US unemployment and payrolls; US trade balance
5-6: Next round of Iran nuclear talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan

7: Japan Current Account
8: China CPI and PPI
10: China trade balance: US FOMC meeting minutes
12: US retail sales; US PPI

14: China Q1 GDP
16: BOE inflation letter and UK CPI data; US housing starts and building permits; US CPI
17: BOE minutes; German ZEW economic sentiment
18: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

22: US existing home sales; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
23: Euro Zone flash PMI readings; US new home sales
24: German Ifo business climate index; US durable goods orders
25: UK prelim Q1 GDP; BOJ policy statement (tentative)
26: US advance Q1 GDP

29: US personal spending
30: Euro Zone unemployment; US consumer confidence; China manufacturing PMI
MAY
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC policy statement
2: ECB policy statement; US trade balance
3: US unemployment and payrolls; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

6: Japan prelim Q1 GDP
7: China CPI and PPI; German factory orders
9: BOE policy statement; Japan current account
10: China trade balance

13: US retail sales
15: German ZEW economic sentiment; BOE inflation report; US PPI
16: US housing starts and building permits; US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
17: US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment

21: BOJ policy statement (tentative)
22: BOE minutes; FOMC minutes; US existing home sales; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
23: Euro Zone flash PMI readings; UK Q1 GDP 2nd reading; US new home sales
24: German Ifo business climate index; US durable goods orders

26: BOJ minutes
28: US consumer confidence
30: US Q1 GDP 2nd reading
31: China Manufacturing PMI

TradeTheNews