Monday, January 26, 2015

Jan 26 2015

One of those cases where setup is envisioned and called in advance. Third win of the morning too. 

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)

Session Time: Mon Jan 26 00:00:00 2015
[08:58] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:58] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm...hi there snow dude
01[09:15] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:15] {@Threei}  dashcam video from Mariupol... not something you see every day:
[09:18] {nemo} ahhh....probably won't be here tomorrow
[09:18] {dino} nemo, seems you and i are getting a pretty good snow storm
[09:18] {dino} about 3" down here already
[09:18] {nemo} we're getting at least two feet and blizzard conditions...I'm only 25 miles inland
[09:19] {dino} we're getting 14" and we just had 6" on this past saturday
01[09:19] {@Threei}  2 feet is serious...
[09:19] {nemo} at least
[09:19] {nemo}
01[09:20] {@Threei}  lived through snowstorm with 3-4, snowdrifts created up to 6-7 ft high banks against garage doors
[09:20] {nemo} scroll down to the blue bullseye...I'm right in the middle
01[09:20] {@Threei}  city was paralized for 4 days
[09:21] {nemo} oh shit...back in '78 I had a snowdrift right up to my upstairs bedroom window
[09:21] {nemo} we were shutdown for a week...took snowmobiles into Boston
[09:22] {ese} morning ladies and D at my school so I can pop in but this will be it until last part of june
01[09:22] {@Threei}  hey ese
[09:22] {nemo} they brought in Terex earthmovers..remember seeing a MGB upside was buried under snow, guy driving the rig never saw it
[09:22] {nemo} scooped it up and dumped it
[09:23] {ese} where was that nemo
[09:23] {ese} hey vad
01[09:23] {@Threei}  so Greece finally rebelled
[09:24] {nemo} A very cold air mass is poised to move south from the arctic late this weekend or early next week. This cold will likely rival anything we have seen this year and has the potential to be the coldest air we have seen in decades.
[09:24] {ese} what'd they do
01[09:24] {@Threei}  now we will find out how far EU will go to placate them
01[09:24] {@Threei}  elected anti-austerity party
[09:25] {ese} ahhhhhhh
[09:25] {RonS} wow stx
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -OCN +30% (response to Gibbs & Bruns in regards to RMBS investors)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ASPS +18% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RMTI +15% (FDA approved Triferic)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -HWAY +15% (confirms exploring strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAMC +11% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RKT +8% (combining with MWV to create a $16B packaging firm)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DHI +7% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GNRC +5% (strength attributed to upcoming northeast blizzard)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -LCI +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CLF +5% (eliminating quarterly dividend)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -IBM +1.2% (laying off more than 100K employees of global workforce)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RGP +15% (ETP merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -PRE -3.6% (confirmed merger with AXS in $11B merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -STX -1.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -NSC -1.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MAT -10% (preliminary results)
[09:29] {RonS} mat ceo resigned
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  32
01[09:33] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {dino} mat missed big too
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop .94
01[09:36] {@Threei}  closed
[09:37] {RonS} guessing Barbie frozened...
01[09:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:39] {@Threei}  wow, it had more in it
[09:40] {RonS} asps changing symbol to yoyo
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .55 break
[09:41] {RonS} saw chatter here that ibm to announce layoffs of 100k this week...
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:41] {nemo} {10k
[09:42] {dino} yes ron, saw that
01[09:42] {@Threei}  [IBM] CNBC tech reporter Fortt says IBM layoffs probably not on the scale of 100K workers as reported in press earlier "$IBM not laying off 100K people as rumored. Its { 10K, evidenced by $600M charge they took last quarter"**NOTE: earlier, IBM said to lay off more than 100K employees (26% of global workforce) as early as next week
01[09:42] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  stop to .59
01[09:47] {@Threei}  Russia warns West not to blackmail it over Ukraine
[09:47] {nemo} 126 long sso
01[09:47] {@Threei}  insolence is pulpable
[09:47] {nemo} stop under .90
[09:47] {nemo} partialed .11
[09:48] {nemo} they ain't playing nice today
01[09:48] {@Threei}  they rarely do
01[09:49] {@Threei}  watching IWM for double bottom
01[09:49] {@Threei}  want pullback under .20
[09:49] {cosmo} chess vs poker...
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:50] {nemo} stop to .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  thing of beauty, and called in advance
[09:51] {nemo} yeah, I entered before typing
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:52] {nemo} out .41
[09:52] {nemo} think vwap will stop it
[09:53] {nemo}
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:4, out
[10:04] {dino} dfs hl l .53
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .85 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:12] {dptl} gm
01[10:13] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[10:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -4.4 V 3.2E
[10:36] {dino} oil
01[10:37] {@Threei}  I am sure
[10:37] {RonS} water
01[10:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .80 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:41] {nemo} no sighn of momentum break in indexes
01[10:45] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .92
[10:45] {nemo} VXX .65 break looks interesting if it holds low
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:52] {nemo} VXX
[11:00] {dino} wdc sm l .00
01[11:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  27 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:10] {RonS} June already?
[11:10] {nemo} they haven't indicted him yet?
01[11:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:29] {@Threei}  (close enough)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has urged Russia to stop its support for the separatists in the eastern Ukraine immediately
01[11:38] {@Threei}  Ah yes, Putin said, I'll get right on it
01[11:38] {@Threei}  why didn't I think of it myself
[11:40] {RonS} Putin: "Jens oughtta stick to being Japanese currency..."
[11:41] {RonS} hey Nemo...
[11:41] {nemo} what
[11:43] {RonS} you need to check out the Fox show:  Backstrom...funniest thing have seen in years
[11:43] {nemo} o.k.
[11:43] {RonS} un-PC to a fault
01[11:44] {@Threei}  closed VXX
[11:44] {RonS} "so, was the Indian a dot or a geronimo?..."
[11:44] {dino} when is it on ron?
[11:47] {nemo} CAT looks like setting up short
[11:48] {nemo} if it breaks lows, probably goes to .20s
[11:49] {RonS} dino, Jan 29th...can see the premiers on-line if get snowed in... :)
[11:49] {nemo} and if you have electricity
[11:49] {RonS}
[11:50] {RonS} ...when was the last time you saw a guy running around with a stogie in his mouth?
01[11:52] {@Threei}  The events in Greece are under the microscope this morning. European finance ministers have reiterated their non-committal stances regarding Syriza's demands for renegotiation, but the consensus seems to be that the EU is open to extension of debt terms and easing reform requirements.
01[11:53] {@Threei}  The unanswered question is what Syriza will finally ask for. Note that the Independent Greece coalition party, while more conservative than left-wing Syriza, is just as uncompromising in its demands for renegotiation.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  OPEC Secretary General El-Badri tried to call a bottom in oil this morning. El-Badri also said he was open to discussions with non-OPEC members to balance oil supply, warning that markets are oversupplied by 1.5 million bpd. He also said some OPEC upstream projects are being cancelled and that oil prices could rise to $200/bbl in three or four years if investment levels do not keep up.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  imbecile
[11:54] {nemo} I like the kid hanging from the bridge
01[11:55] {@Threei}  nemo, I understand ese is not coming to visit you just yet:
01[11:55] {@Threei}  As of writing, nearly 1,800 flights have been canceled nationwide and another 1,600 already have been canceled for Tuesday.
[11:55] {nemo} lucky for him
[11:55] {RonS} syriza... isn't that resin-tasting greek maple syrup?
[11:55] {nemo} that sucked ron
01[11:55] {@Threei}  there are maples in greece?
[11:56] {RonS} first maples in greece, then naples in italy
01[11:56] {@Threei}  oh boy
[11:56] {cosmo} canceling those flights should help fight global warming...
[11:57] {RonS} ...where's my meds...
[11:57] {nemo} where ARE my meds
01[11:57] {@Threei}  I kind of hoped maples are purely canadian trees... after all, we don't have olive trees here, would only be fair if Greece didn't have maples?
[11:57] {nemo} CAT going down
01[11:58] {@Threei}  when global cooling starts, you'll regret ever fighting warming cosmo
[11:59] {nemo} sheesh...we've had colder than normal winters and summers for the last 3 years
01[11:59] {@Threei}  doesn't matter nemo, propaganda machine doesn't turn around that quickly
[11:59] {nemo} we about to enter the coldest 10 day stretch in decades
01[12:00] {@Threei}  progression of propaganda:
01[12:00] {@Threei}  global cooling - global warming - climate change - climate instability
01[12:01] {@Threei}  cooling was not so cool anymore after some wqrm period, warming stopped being hot after some cooldown,
[12:02] {RonS} ...all Mark Twain's fault
01[12:02] {@Threei}  change sounded not so different since climate always changes,
01[12:02] {@Threei}  instability is currently holding up, for now
[12:02] {nemo} VXX
01[12:03] {@Threei}  (see what I did in all 4 cases? Ron's fault...)
[12:04] {nemo} Ron's a right-wing reactionary
01[12:05] {@Threei}  anything's wrong with that?
[12:05] {RonS} Twain:  : "everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it"
[12:05] {nemo} did I say there was?
01[12:05] {@Threei}  I am cranky curmudgeon
01[12:05] {@Threei}  as such, I like reactionares
[12:05] {nemo} got nothing on me u uke
01[12:06] {@Threei}  thought this was what you refered to, Ron
[12:07] {cosmo} It's all Algore's fault...
[12:07] {RonS} yep, his 22,000 sq ft house
[12:08] {RonS} and jetting around
[12:08] {RonS} and constantly blowing hot air
01[12:08] {@Threei}  and planes dekivering speakers to all lying movie presentations
[12:08] {cosmo} And his karmic commupence has affected us all
01[12:08] {@Threei}  Convenient Lie
[12:10] {cosmo} comeuppance
[12:14] {nemo} VXX
01[12:18] {@Threei}
01[12:18] {@Threei}  good thing planes are grounded, nemo would be flying to Ukraine by now
01[12:18] {@Threei}  on Miami
[12:19] {nemo} that's a long way to go for trouble...I just go to the grocery store and let the MILFs try to pick me up
01[12:19] {@Threei}  or*
01[12:19] {@Threei}  do they?
[12:19] {nemo} yeah...happened again yesterday...tough to concentrate when I'm trying to keep track of my father
01[12:20] {@Threei}  think "what would Hank Moody do"
[12:20] {nemo} it's amazing how fast an 82 year old man can move
[12:20] {nemo} unfortunately, I don't live in a TV show
[12:21] {dino} lol
[12:21] {nemo} don't think the FWB would go for it either
[12:21] {dino} nemo working the frozen food section
[12:21] {nemo} The ex-german girlfriend wanted to visit last summer...that was turning into a problem
01[12:21] {@Threei}  alll those melons...
[12:21] {nemo} actually, it was the fruits and vegetables
[12:22] {nemo} I kinda' saw it coming, she starts talking to my father, I'm like...mmmmhhhhh
[12:22] {nemo} VXX
[12:22] {dino} out wdc 99.81, +1.81
01[12:22] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:22] {nemo} think it's a good bet for a long here
[12:23] {nemo} needs to get above .15 soon
[12:23] {dino} ty
[12:23] {nemo} looks like the tops might be in
[12:28] {nemo} oh cool...Bernie Kosar's daughter is a porn star
01[12:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
[12:29] {nemo} it never went under
01[12:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .98
[12:29] {RonS} Massachusetts governor announces MBTA service will shut down at midnight, no service Tuesday
[12:30] {nemo} No soup for you!
[12:30] {nemo} not sure I have enough vodka to get through the storm....Road Trip!!!
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:37] {@Threei}  "If I'm nobody in this life and nobody is perfect, does that make me perfect?"
01[12:38] {@Threei}  stop .19
[12:39] {nemo} likely to test under .20, think that's the bottom though
01[12:48] {@Threei}  (US) Obama Admin releases plan to control healthcare costs in Medicare program by moving toward focus on qualitative care rather than fee-for-service - press - Health and Human Services says it plans to migrate health care spending away from costly fee-for-service charges and toward alternative payment models. Wants to move 50% of Medicare's payments to alternative payment models by 2018 (vs about 20% of Medicare payments currently going to healthcare providers with cost saving models today).
01[12:48] {@Threei}  - The goal is to align healthcare spending toward payment models that link payments to providers to effective and management of patient treatments, rather than the fee-for-service model that has been blamed for boosting costs and authorizing unnecessary procedures.
01[12:49] {@Threei}  interesting idea... can't imagine how it can be realized
[12:50] {nemo} oh jeez...53% of last 20 days
[12:50] {RonS} = 10.6 days
[12:51] {nemo} douche
[12:54] {nemo} yeah Ron...this show weird
[12:56] {RonS} Forbes reviewer said cbs dropped 'cause just too hot...
[12:57] {nemo} not quite mainstream network fare
01[12:59] {@Threei}  *(RU) S&P LOWERS RUSSIA RATING TO JUNK
[13:05] {nemo} oh jeez the paedophile is back
01[13:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  .90 break
01[13:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[13:40] {nemo} EBAY below .05 can be a short
[13:40] {nemo} stop above .10
[13:40] {nemo} two way?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  meh
01[13:41] {@Threei}  first stop today
01[13:41] {@Threei}  I like long EBAY
01[13:41] {@Threei}  maybe DKTK is better way to play it
[13:42] {nemo} nice bear flag
[13:42] {nemo} plus it's almost 2
[13:45] {nemo} markets moving up but ebay not...they come in probably works
[13:52] {JoebiWan} mcd
01[14:17] {@Threei}  The morning commute in West Vancouver, B.C. was tied up by a "slow-moving" beaver who decided to cross the road.
01[14:17] {@Threei}  Traffic at 15th Avenue and Bellevue Street was blocked as police tweeted urgent updates.
01[14:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[14:20] {@Threei}  .c 31
01[14:20] {@Threei}  If holds  31
[14:35] {RonS} oled took the pipe
[14:37] {dino} slow
[14:37] {nemo} relative volume very low...
[14:37] {dino} my scanners barely moving
[14:38] {nemo} good movie
01[14:38] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:45] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Govt confirms known human case of H7N9 bird flu in North America in individual coming China; individual is recovering
01[14:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .95 break
01[14:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:01] {dptl} gn all see you tomorrow
01[15:01] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:10] {@Threei}  trying to decipher eod direction
[15:11] {nemo} this low volume likely means float
[15:13] {dino} took all day, but out dfs .76, +.23
01[15:15] {@Threei}  it was waiting for you to say it nemo :)
[15:16] {nemo} low volume making for jerky setups
01[15:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[15:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[15:22] {@Threei}  if dives under 119, will change trigger
01[15:34] {@Threei}  GKTK is still the way to go
01[15:34] {@Threei}  D
01[15:39] {@Threei}  come on, break .10
01[15:39] {@Threei}  and run
01[15:39] {@Threei}  fly
[15:41] {RonS} Feds charge 3 men in New York City with spying for Russia
01[15:45] {@Threei}  meaning, we were onto them for years and now the moment is right politically
01[15:54] {@Threei}  stop to .99
01[15:54] {@Threei}  2 min to make up its mind
[15:55] {dino} gn all
01[15:55] {@Threei}  ok, scratchiong IWM
[15:55] {dino} time to plow driveway, about 6" down so far
01[15:56] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:56] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:56] {nemo} time to go to the liquor store
01[15:56] {@Threei}  thsnk you all, have a good evening
01[15:56] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {nemo} maybe not
01[15:56] {@Threei}  hopefully
[15:56] {JoebiWan} cya all. gl on east coast

Friday, January 23, 2015

Market Week Wrap-up Weekly Market Update: Quantitative Easing, Redux
Fri, 23 Jan 2015 16:05 PM EST

The European Central Bank launched a quantitative easing program of its very own this week, pledging to expand its balance sheet by at least €1.1 trillion via purchases of Eurozone sovereign bonds. The ECB move had been extremely well telegraphed to markets but European equities rocked higher and the euro tanked on the news nevertheless (the EuroStoxx50 gained 5.6% on the week, EUR/USD plummeted to 12-year lows). The Shanghai and Hong Kong indices saw robust gains as the mixed 2014 Chinese GDP report gave investors hope that more PBoC easing might be right around the corner. More current data only highlighted China's slowdown: the January flash HSBC PMI reading suggested manufacturing could contract for a second consecutive month. In the US, equities made back most of their losses from last week and the 10-year UST yield consolidated below 1.85% while many European government bond rates hit new lifetime lows after the QE announcement. Markets also digested an influx of corporate earnings reports and 2015 outlooks. For the week, the DJIA added 0.9%, the S&P500 gained 1.6% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.

The ECB will purchase €60 billion of sovereign debt from Eurozone member states every month until at least September 2016. The program may very well go on longer, until, as Draghi said, "we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation." In a concession to German QE skeptics, both the ECB and member national central banks will buy bonds, sharing the risk of default. The Germans were hardly appreciative: Bundesbank President Weidmann rejected the new QE program and said it would be very challenging to hike rates when they were needed. The euro plunged after the announcement, with EUR/USD testing the lower end of 1.11, for 12-year lows. Some analysts suggested EUR/USD could go to parity soon. Yields on peripheral Eurozone debt plunged to all-time lows, while the 10-year bund yield dropped to a record low of 0.353%.

Less than a week after the Swiss National Bank yanked away its euro peg, markets were surprised by another central bank as the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut its key rate just a day ahead of the ECB QE announcement. The Bank of Canada cut rates 25 basis points to 0.75% justifying the move on grounds of falling oil prices and slowing reduction of excess capacity. Less surprisingly, the Danish central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.20% and its lending rate to 0.05% to offset the ECB action. Meanwhile the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting revealed a big shift on the MPC: two former hawkish members changed their policy stances, saying the bank should hold off on rate hikes due to prolonged low inflation.

The IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to 3.5% from 3.8% and reduced its 2016 global outlook to 3.7% from 4.0%. China and Japan were cut 0.3 pts and 0.2 pts to 6.8% and 0.6%, respectively for 2015, while the US was the only major economy to have its outlook raised. The IMF remarked that the dimming outlook worldwide underscores need for stronger policy action to boost growth, and that even the positive aspect of lower oil prices is offset by the broad slowdown.

Swiss officials were out in force defending their decision to drop the EUR/CHF floor. SNB Chief Jordan said the cap was no longer justified because the Swiss economy was improving and was never meant to be permanent anyway. Jordan acknowledged that the economic situation in Switzerland was more difficult after the decision while pleading that SNB monetary policy couldn't make everybody happy. Swiss Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf estimated that EUR/CHF at 1.10 was a reasonable level for the nation's exporters. EUR/CHF approached last week's low of 0.9749, prompting chatter the SNB would have to cut rates again.

The decline in crude prices slowed this week, with both WTI and Brent hovering around the mid-to-high-$40s range throughout the week. At Davos, OPEC Secretary General El-Badri asserted that oil prices would stay around $45-50 as global economic weakness kept prices low. Back at the ranch in Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah finally passed away after several weeks of rumors he had already died. Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the 79-year old brother of the king and a former Minister of Defense, was installed as the new monarch. Reports suggest he is in poor health and possibly has dementia, with the complicated royal family riven by factional disputes. Crude saw a brief rally on the confirmation of Abdullah's death, but returned to trend as Salman pledged to continue all of his predecessor's policies.

In earnings, oil services names Halliburton and Baker Hughes both topped market expectations in fourth-quarter reports, with solid earnings and very good revenue growth. Airlines Southwest and United Continental saw solid gains after both firms comfortably beat earnings expectations. US-traded Industrials Honeywell and General Electric gained after solid quarterly results. Shares of German software giant SAP dumped after the company cut its profit outlook through its 2017 fiscal year, while IBM sank after disclosing yet another quarter of y/y revenue contraction and some less than stellar FY15 guidance. American Express unveiled a plan to restructure, cutting 6% of its workforce. UPS skidded after cutting its FY14 outlook on greater-than-expected fourth-quarter expenses. McDonald's fourth quarter results were severely undercooked: the firm missed on the top- and bottom lines, while comps remained negative in all major regions. Netflix soared on good gains in subscribers, especially in international markets.

After a very mixed Q4 in China, there had been fears that China's 2014 GDP would miss both official and market expectations. The figure came in at 7.4%, beating the 7.3% consensus outlook but below Beijing's 7.5% target, the first time the official goal has been missed since 1998 and the lowest rate of growth in 24 years. The consumption component of GDP rose to 51.2% from 48.2% in 2013, reflecting continued rebalancing of the economy. December industrial production topped estimates to reach a 3-month high, as power generation beat the low power consumption figure estimated by the National Energy Administration last week. Later in the week, the PBoC injected liquidity into money markets via reverse repos for the first time in nearly a year in anticipation of Lunar New Year holiday cash demand. HSBC flash manufacturing PMI also beat expectations and improved to 49.8 despite remaining in contraction territory for the 2nd straight month. After a perilous 7.7% plunge on Monday due to regulatory scrutiny of margin securities at trading firms, the Shanghai Composite regained its footing, testing a 5-year high above 3,400 on Friday.

As anticipated, the Bank of Japan maintained its key policy tool to expand the monetary base by ¥80 trillion a year, while also extending its low-rate funding scheme by a year and boosting provision to each institution from ¥1T to ¥2T. The BoJ also kept its overall economic assessment, but raised its view on industrial output to state that it has bottomed. Accompanying the decision, the BOJ released its updated forecasts of growth and inflation, lowering the 2015 GDP target to -0.5% from +0.5% but raising its forecasts for the next two years. The CPI outlook was particularly less rosy for FY15/16, as Governor Kuroda lowered the target to 1.0% from 1.7% and effectively acknowledged that Japan would miss its 2-year time frame to return to 2% inflation. Speaking in Davos on Friday, Kuroda maintained there's still plenty of scope to adjust policy if needed.

Jan 23 2015

Two 1:4 trades and two scalps in first 30 minutes, not too shabby. First one was on SBUX short, second is presented on the screenshot:

Ending with another 1:4 on VXX, the best day of the uneven week.

Session Time: Fri Jan 23 00:00:00 2015
[08:50] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:50] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:05] {dino} gm
01[09:05] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {RonS} gm...mea culpa dino, that input on fxe sucked
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {RonS} ups wrecked
[09:12] {RonS} kmb wiped
01[09:13] {@Threei}  EUR/USD at fresh 11-year lows below the 1.1250 area.
01[09:13] {@Threei}  - Focus turns to the weekend Greek parliamentary elections to see if anti-austerity party takes over
01[09:14] {@Threei}  - Crude Oil initially spiked up almost 3% to near $47.80 after confirmed death of Saudi Arabia's King Adbullah despite the well-articulated succession plan. WTI gave back all of its gains after new Saudi King Salman stated that he would maintain the policies of predecessor
[09:21] {RonS} rcl ccl cruising
[09:23] {dino} lol
[09:24] {RonS} Expedia Buys Travelocity From Sabre for $280 Mln in Cash
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -INFN +15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VTAE +8.5% (priced 3M shares at $11.90)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ETFC +6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MXIM +5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SBUX +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LULU +4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MIK +2.2% (priced 18.8M shares at $23.52)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LNKD +2.2% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LF -32% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DWA -15% (restructuring plan & 5K jobs cut)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -UPS -7% (guided Q4 below estimates)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ZFGN -5.5% (priced 3.9M shares at $35)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KMB -4.6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ALTR -4.1% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FDX -2.5% (momentum from UPS news)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCX -1.6% (negative broker commentary)
[09:27] {dptl} gm
01[09:28] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {RonS} change to have a cup of coffee?
01[09:34] {@Threei}  one thing I surely hate about SBUX is their coffee :)
[09:34] {RonS} wow syf
01[09:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .90 break0 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  87
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:36] {@Threei}  out
[09:36] {JoebiWan} gj
01[09:36] {@Threei}  ty
[09:36] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[09:36] {@Threei}  maybe that'll teach you how to brew that crap, SBUX
01[09:36] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:37] {@Threei}  and btw, as it was not enough to kill such a great drink, they try the same with tea now, via crap they sell in Teatopia
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  late
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:42] {@Threei}  stop .59
01[09:42] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:42] {@Threei}  .64 now
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:45] {@Threei}  stop to .34
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:47] {@Threei}  P Seeing early call activityJan weekly calls active
[09:47] {cosmo} so coffee was a great drink before SBUX?
[09:47] {cosmo} and now its no more?
01[09:49] {@Threei}  not in their stores
01[09:50] {@Threei}  and then there is such thing as contagion - more people are taught to think this is how coffee should taste, and they buy that and demand that, so more shops follow the suit... getting the picture?
[09:50] {cosmo} I know their stores have a very characteristic odor about them
[09:50] {cosmo} unlike Pete's, etc
[09:53] {RonS} guess must be bad, sbux stock up 13,000% since 1992 ipo
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .20 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:54] {nemo} why is it up?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  two-suded
01[09:54] {@Threei}  sided
[09:54] {nemo} yeah, vwap just under 17
[09:55] {nemo} watch UPS
[09:56] {RonS} upi pulpating again
[09:57] {RonS} sorry uri
[09:58] {RonS} ups volume profile to the downside is cliffish
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.04M V 5.08ME
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC LEADING INDEX: 0.5% V 0.4%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:02] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:03] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:06] {@Threei}  closed
01[10:23] {@Threei}  FDX Halted; reaffirms FY15 guidance $8.50-9.00 v $8.94e
[10:25] {RonS} FedEx: Outlook Assumes Continued Moderate Economic Growth and Modest Net Benefit From Fuel
[10:25] {RonS} lol
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
[10:35] {pamsv} vxx
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:35] {pamsv} oops wrong window
01[10:41] {@Threei}  stop to .39
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {nemo} wake up Vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  lol
[10:45] {JoebiWan} great morning, ty vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:45] {@Threei}  100%
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:47] {@Threei}  closed
[10:57] {JoebiWan} gotta run. cya all
[10:57] {dino} cya
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take care jw
01[11:33] {@Threei}  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered the Russian government negotiations with the European Union on the "possibilities of a cooperation in a joint trade area" in exchange for a comprehensive resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine
[11:35] {RonS} come to Colorado, we're already trading joints...
01[11:37] {@Threei}  joints?
01[11:37] {@Threei}  ah
01[11:37] {@Threei}  lol
[11:37] {nemo} spleef
01[11:37] {@Threei}  so... rebels declare they are going to push on with offensive
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EY commissions allowed member countries weapin supplies to Ukraine
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EU
01[11:39] {@Threei}  and Putin purges his inner circle, getting rid of olygarchs and keeping war hawks closer
01[11:39] {@Threei}  getting a feel where this is going?
[11:41] {dino} yes, unfortunately
[11:52] {dino} hlf spike
01[11:54] {@Threei}  HLF CNBC's Wapner: Post holdings's Stiritz (approx 8% holder) is buying more shares though not enough to trigger a new SEC filing; has not sold any of his stake
01[12:10] {@Threei}  Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the 79-year old brother of the king and a former Minister of Defense, was installed as the new monarch. Reports suggest he is in poor health and possibly has dementia, with the complicated royal family riven by factional disputes
01[12:10] {@Threei}  so... with Greek election over the weekend, will we see any drop toward eod?
[12:31] {nemo} I think it's a foregone conclusion, probably see vxx move though
01[12:34] {@Threei}  dunno... we exected the dame last Friday, never came to be
01[12:34] {@Threei}  the same
[12:34] {nemo} had a .50 upmove at the end of the day
01[12:34] {@Threei}  yeah, on last 30 seconds
01[12:35] {@Threei}  untradable
[12:35] {nemo} it was tradeable for those with brass ones
[12:38] {RonS} like brady talkin about his balls?
01[12:39] {@Threei}  underinflated?
[12:39] {nemo} yep
01[12:47] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[12:47] {@Threei}  Vegetarians live up to nine years longer. Nine horrible, tedious, meaningless, worthless, baconless, cheeseburgerless, meatless years.
[12:47] {nemo} They probably don't drink either
01[12:53] {@Threei}  another from the same guy: If anyone's interested, I am going to sign the books in B&N today after 2 pm, and till security escorts me out
01[13:23] {@Threei}  uh oh... we might need those wooden stakes, silver stakes and whatever else we find:
01[13:23] {@Threei}  (BR) Brazil Central Bank's Tombini: EU stimulus package will help revive animal spirits in Europe
[13:24] {RonS} some net guy said yesterday: who is left to do QE?  Cuba?
01[13:24] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:24] {@Threei}  Zimbabwe?
01[13:25] {@Threei}  wait...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  they don't have to, deflation is not their problem
[13:25] {RonS} oh Canada!...  but you guys have inflation...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  we so do
[13:26] {RonS} we do too, they just lie about it
01[13:26] {@Threei}  isn't it amazing how official data can differ from everyday's reality so starkly?
01[13:27] {@Threei}  sure, gasoline price drop can mask a lot of inflation in given time period
01[13:27] {@Threei}  but there is inflation, undoubtedly
[13:28] {nemo} VXX
[13:28] {nemo} sheesh, XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  I tried to calculate yesterday how much money fuel drop can save me, with assumption of prices staying where they are today. Came up with about $1400 - 1600 per hpousehold
01[13:29] {@Threei}  annually of course
[13:29] {nemo} XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  ?
[13:31] {nemo} break of .30 looks interesting
[13:32] {dino} inflation in things you need, deflation in things you want
[13:32] {nemo} I'd like to see deflation of my electric bill but that ain't happening
[13:34] {nemo} when does aapl announce?
01[13:34] {@Threei}  that's a good way to put it dino
01[13:35] {@Threei}  well, except fuel... this we need :)
[13:36] {RonS} but you live on an island, can't you walk everywhere? :)
[13:37] {RonS} get this my wife's sister and husband walked across Britain
[13:37] {nemo} IWM looks short
[13:37] {RonS} but he's a preacher so manybe he floated...
[13:37] {nemo} needs to hold below vwap
01[13:37] {@Threei}  well... I am not that heroic, I prefer driving :)
01[13:38] {@Threei}  unfortunately, mine is not this little catroonish island with one palm tree in the middle and beach all around {G}
[13:39] {RonS} lol
[13:39] {nemo} anybody get XOP...just went 1:4
01[13:40] {@Threei}  VLO *INCREASES DIVIDEND 45% TO $0.40 FROM $0.275
01[13:40] {@Threei}  cool call nemo
01[13:40] {@Threei}  nice setup
[13:41] {nemo} needs to hold .64
[13:41] {nemo} 46ish in cards
[13:44] {dino} gj
01[13:56] {@Threei}  VXX is tempting on 31 break but I'll resist temptation
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if it breaks will wait for a rinse
[13:56] {nemo} early yet
[13:57] {nemo} the other thing is aapl I think announces on's the big kahuna in so many indexes, withou it being weak, hard for stuff to go down
[13:59] {RonS} these guys show tues amc but the aterisk means "unconfirmed":
[13:59] {nemo} then it's Tuesday
[14:00] {nemo} It's #1 by weight in the Qs, S&P500, RUT1000
[14:00] {RonS} shows tues as well
[14:00] {RonS} ie
01[14:08] {@Threei}  Tiesday according to TTN calendar
[14:09] {nemo} so appl will be bought into earnings
01[14:09] {@Threei}  notice what VXX did
[14:09] {nemo} which will apply upward pressure on the indexes
01[14:09] {@Threei}  broke, rinsed, and gave 1:1 from .90
01[14:09] {@Threei}  just as foretold
[14:10] {nemo} VXX
[14:10] {nemo} neds to hold above .05
[14:10] {nemo} needs
[14:11] {nemo} IMMHO
[14:11] {nemo} yeah, right
[14:12] {nemo} aapl bounce territory
01[14:12] {@Threei}  (UR) Pro-Russia rebels reportedly reject peace proposal in Ukraine and have begun an offensive - press - Rebel leader Zakharchenko: Launching a new offensive to forestall attack by Ukrainian army to push the government troops to the border of the Donetsk region and possibly beyond.
01[14:13] {@Threei}  a few real time reports over last couple hours, there are advances with heavy equipments in at least two major directions
[14:14] {dino} ukrained is screwed
[14:16] {nemo} support .04 for vxx
[14:17] {nemo} aapl can't get above .30 will likely test 113
[14:17] {nemo} SPY at vwap/channel support
[14:17] {pamsv} ok thanks guys - have a good weekend
01[14:18] {@Threei}  you too pam
01[14:19] {@Threei}  isn't it incredible, how rebels are armed with tanks, multiple rocket launchers, ground-air defense systems etc etc, yet Russia says it doesn't supply them
[14:26] {dptl} good weekend all see you monday
[14:27] {RonS} cya dp
01[14:27] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[14:37] {@Threei}  VXX pullback under .10 will deserve a buy probably
01[14:39] {@Threei}
01[14:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  XOP  .80 break
01[14:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:42] {dino} incy spike
[14:48] {nemo} VXX @vwap
01[14:50] {@Threei}  missed VXX
[14:50] {nemo} I didn't...look at aapl
[14:50] {nemo} test 113
01[15:05] {@Threei}  A lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party has offered his advice to Russians struggling to pay for food amid the country's soaring inflation: "Eat less."
01[15:06] {@Threei}  sounds about right
01[15:08] {@Threei}  drop started a bit too early
01[15:08] {@Threei}  starting to think rally into close
[15:08] {nemo} vwap
[15:13] {cosmo} I'm eating less, but it doesn't help. At some point you have to excercise more.
[15:13] {nemo} duh
[15:17] {dino} lol
[15:18] {nemo} when you eat less your metabolism slows down to compensate for the lower calorie intake partially defeating the purpose for the lower calories
01[15:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[15:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:19] {cosmo} Hibernate bears
[15:20] {cosmo} good advice maybe for russia
01[15:28] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:43] {@Threei}  OK guys, ending for the week
01[15:43] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
01[15:43] {@Threei}  see you monday
[15:43] {RonS} u 2...

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Jan 22 2015

Catch of the Day, ascending triangle break on JPM 

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)

Session Time: Thu Jan 22 00:00:00 2015
[08:41] {dino} gm
[08:45] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:50] {@Threei}  morning guys
[09:17] {RonS} gm...dateline Berkeley CA:  Unknown person(s) placed two skinned boar's heads on the lid of a dumpster of a popular vegan restaurant...police are debating whether or not to pursue the matter as a "hate crime"...
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  I think he was just trying to make them see whose food they were eating
[09:19] {dptl} gm
[09:20] {RonS} the hate crime thing is what is rich with irony...when everything is a hate crime why have the distinction? freakin liberals...
01[09:20] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:27] {RonS} At least 41 Ukraine soldiers, civilians killed in 24 hours: officials
01[09:27] {@Threei}  fighting really flared up over last week or so
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  38 break hl
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:31] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:31] {@Threei}  in
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:32] {@Threei}  thank you kind soul who sold to my bid
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  116 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:36] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -CYN +18% (being acquired by RY)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -CYTR +13% (survival rates for Phase 2b Aldoxorubicin trial)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -FWM +9% (no news)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -LOGI +8.5% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -BBRY +5% (Samsung reportedly continuing takeover or acquisition of significant stake efforts)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -LUV +4.3% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -URI +3.4% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -EBAY +3.2% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:36] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -FFIV -15% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -SNDK -7% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -XLNX -6.5% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -XXIA -4.2% (no news)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -DFS -3.7% (earnings)
01[09:36] {@Threei}  -MDVN -3.3% (Phase 2 trial of PFS in prostate cancer met primary endpoint)
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  .10
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  77 
01[09:39] {@Threei}  change to 77 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1  
[09:41] {RonS} dlb sm l .22 s/l lod
[09:43] {RonS} s/l be
01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[09:46] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:46] {nemo} not yet
01[09:46] {@Threei}  no... was trying for double bottom
[09:46] {dino} ptct drop
[09:47] {dino} thin
[09:50] {RonS} trail stop dlb .55 +.33
[09:51] {dino} ptct sm l .30 wide
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
[09:51] {dino} gj ron
01[09:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:2  
[09:56] {RonS} cof hacking
01[09:56] {@Threei}  lol
[09:59] {dino} aavl avalanche continues
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (EU) EURO ZONE JAN ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -8.5 V -10.5E
[10:01] {dino} aspx blood
[10:01] {dino} bio blood in general
[10:02] {RonS} all the secondaries... but now bouncing
[10:02] {RonS} clvs vrtx pcrx gwre
[10:03] {dino} not alny, aavl, ptct, agio, pbyi
[10:04] {RonS} buy xyz is solid
[10:04] {RonS} but
[10:05] {RonS} hey fish, how's the gig?
[10:05] {fish_49} going well thanks  Hey all
[10:05] {nemo} anybody smell that?
01[10:05] {@Threei}  hey fish
[10:05] {fish_49} Hey the guy above
01[10:05] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .20 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:06] {dino} hey fish
[10:06] {dino} sm l aavl .65 
[10:06] {fish_49} Dino
01[10:08] {@Threei}  stop to .14
[10:11] {dino} agio vsm l .99
[10:12] {dino} stx spike
[10:13] {RonS} $STX hearing samsung buying chatter
01[10:14] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:14] {@Threei}  stop .19
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:1  
[10:16] {fish_49} Go JPM Go
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:3  
[10:17] {JoebiWan} gj
[10:17] {fish_49} 3
[10:17] {fish_49} great call Vad
06[10:17] * @Threei slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large roll of cash
[10:17] {fish_49} Gonna go to bed  good night all happy trading
01[10:17] {@Threei}  lol
[10:18] {fish_49} Good night to u also Toad face
[10:18] {nemo} frickin' Korean
[10:18] {dino} out agio 119.99, +2.00
[10:19] {RonS} wow gj
[10:19] {JoebiWan} nice
01[10:19] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:19] {dino} ty
[10:21] {dino} out aavl .15, +.50
[10:22] {dino} out ewg calls, plan did not work, +.10 / 6%
01[10:22] {@Threei}  + is +
01[10:30] {@Threei}  (DE) Germany IFO's Sinn: QE moves from the ECB constitute an illegal monetary state financing
[10:31] {dino} so, arrest them
01[10:31] {@Threei}  and shoot them
[10:32] {dino} occupy them?
01[10:32] {@Threei}  and make sure to drive the wooden stake through their heart
01[10:32] {@Threei}  'cause as russian example shows, they don't just die
[10:34] {dino} alny sm l .38
[10:38] {cosmo} better use a silver stake
[10:39] {cosmo} before the cost goes up too much
[10:45] {dino} out alny .38, +1.00
[10:45] {RonS} gj
[10:45] {dino} ty
[10:50] {nemo} 204.70ish is the 50 day
[10:53] {RonS} finally, took aavl 37.97 out 39.45  +1.48  thanks dino
[10:55] {dino} yw, gj
[10:56] {dino} you do know it pisses me off when you make more on my calls than i do
[10:59] {RonS} hey, sometimes i play them better, sometimes worse...
[11:00] {RonS} watch the thing go green, and we can both be pissed off
[11:00] {RonS} as one trader i know says...all roads lead to pain
[11:04] {dino} out ptct .80, +.50 took awhile
[11:04] {dino} when going thru hell, keep going
01[11:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .25 break
[11:05] {nemo} too late
01[11:05] {@Threei}  late...
[11:05] {dino} these bios, when they break, they are like slingshots
[11:06] {RonS} satchel paige: "don't look back, Nemo may be gaining on you"
01[11:06] {@Threei}  lol
[11:06] {nemo} I just put the crosshairs center mass
[11:09] {RonS} classic: someone re-did that Dali piece w/ the drooping clocks...replaced the clocks w/ footballs and signed belichics name in the corner...sorry, no link
[11:10] {dino} youtube had the ac/dc song "i've got big balls" changed to bradys got soft ball, funny
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
[11:11] {nemo} yeah, listened to Belichick's news conference this morning...Brady on @4
[11:15] {RonS} Brady is the Dick Clark of football...he never ages...met Vinatieri after the first Super win and compared to 
01[11:15] {@Threei}  VXX once again, same setup
01[11:15] {@Threei}  .25 break
01[11:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .17 
[11:16] {RonS} sheesh, uri 
01[11:17] {@Threei}  stop to .19
01[11:19] {@Threei}  meh
01[11:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[11:31] {@Threei}  change to 117
01[11:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[11:32] {@Threei}  change to .95
01[11:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .88 
01[11:37] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[11:41] {@Threei}  oh god
01[11:41] {@Threei}  Bulletin of Atomic Scientists move DOOMSDAY CLOCK closer to midnight by 2 minutes to reach 3 minutes to midnight (vs 5 minutes to midnight prior) (update) - Warning that "the probability of global catastrophe is very high" unless quick action is taken, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board today cited unchecked climate change and global nuclear weapons modernization as the basis for their decision to move the minute hand of the historic Doomsday Clock forward two minutes. The shift of the Doomsday Clock hands to three minutes to midnight is the first such adjustment to be made in three years. The Board also outlined action steps that will need to be taken "very soon" in order to avert catastrophe. - Source
01[11:41] {@Threei}  imbeciles
01[11:42] {@Threei}  (GR) Latest Rass poll finds Syriza party with a wider lead that stands now at 4.8 points
[11:47] {dino} wtf are we wasting money on the doomsday clock for
[11:48] {RonS} ya, just source an app for the smart phones...
[11:49] {RonS} "hold on a second, need to check the time on my doomsday app"...
[11:49] {dino} ptct lod
[11:50] {dino} lol ron, yeah, don't think i can make that appointment, my doomsday clock says i need to take precautions
[11:51] {RonS} "oh shit, it's moved up a one second away from doomsday...but wait, the last move took ten we have plenty of time"
01[11:53] {@Threei}  works for nemo... he is always like "man, I am running out of time, gotta pour that glass faster"
01[11:54] {@Threei}  US - Cuba begin historic talks on restoring diplomatic ties
[12:00] {cosmo} Fukushima should have moved the clock up methinks. Do they account for that?
[12:03] {RonS} nah, they have a Godzilla clock for that...
01[12:04] {@Threei}  last week we were told the chance of mega-earthquake in Victoria area next 50 years is 1 in 10
01[12:05] {@Threei}  I now make the connection... they know Godzilla awakes
[12:05] {RonS} lol
01[12:05] {@Threei}  because of Fukushima
01[12:05] {@Threei}  on second thought, they may be just running out of grant money...
[12:06] {RonS} perfect
01[12:06] {@Threei}  The ECB will purchase €60 billion of sovereign debt from Eurozone member states every month until at least September 2016, expanding its balance sheet by €1.1 trillion. Note that the program could go on longer, until, as Draghi said, "we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation." In a concession to German QE skeptics, both the ECB and member national central banks will buy bonds, sharing the risk of default.
01[12:07] {@Threei}  WTI crude was volatile, ramping up as high as $49 just before the ECB decision and then testing one-week lows around $46.20 after the QE unveiling, on USD strength. The weekly DoE stockpiles report didn't help, as the report showed Cushing, OK reserves at their highest levels in many decades for this time of year, with a huge gain in the last week.
01[12:07] {@Threei}  does Godzilla drink oil?
01[12:07] {@Threei}  we have plenty
[12:08] {RonS} this day and age?
[12:08] {cosmo} Godzilla becomes oil
[12:16] {RonS} hey dino...
01[12:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .21 break
01[12:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[12:28] {@Threei}  with trail to .14 after .25 break
[12:30] {nemo} wow
[12:30] {nemo} no just how to jerk the chain today
[12:30] {nemo} know
[12:34] {nemo} sheesh probably go rinsed
[12:35] {nemo} breakouts at lunch
[12:35] {nemo} DKTK
01[12:35] {@Threei}  talking about DAL?
[12:35] {nemo} yeah
01[12:35] {@Threei}  breakout would be .25 break
[12:36] {nemo} yeah, but moved the stop to .14 got triggered
01[12:36] {@Threei}  I took aggressive entry as a stand-in for DKTK
01[12:36] {@Threei}  ??
01[12:36] {@Threei}  12:28] {@Threei} with trail to .14 after .25 break
01[12:36] {@Threei}  it never broke .25
01[12:36] {@Threei}  why would you trail it?
[12:36] {nemo} close enough
01[12:36] {@Threei}  no
01[12:37] {@Threei}  break is not a quantitative
01[12:37] {@Threei}  it's a qualitative
01[12:37] {@Threei}  no brteak of resistance, no new quality
01[12:37] {@Threei}  thus no trail
01[12:37] {@Threei}  test of high and break of his are materially different
01[12:38] {@Threei}  hi
01[12:38] {@Threei}  gh
01[12:50] {@Threei}  Russia continues to insist that separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk are independent of Russian control and military support. But Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has made clear how ludicrous this assertion is:
01[12:50] {@Threei}  “Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems are not sold at local Donetsk street markets. Only the Russian army and Defense Ministry have them.”
01[12:54] {@Threei}  no go
01[13:02] {@Threei}  EUR/USD Moves below the 1.1400 level
01[13:09] {@Threei}  Government and president of Yemen resign amid standoff with Shia Houthi rebels, officials say
[13:11] {RonS} O fiddles while the world burns...
01[13:11] {@Threei}  he can fiddle?
[13:11] {RonS} that's all he does
01[13:11] {@Threei}  I thought golf was his thing
01[13:12] {@Threei}  fiddling is respectable skill
[13:12] {RonS} look avp volume
[13:13] {cosmo} mulligans
01[13:14] {@Threei}  no, you are right...
01[13:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  LUV  .85 break
01[13:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .75 
[13:24] {nemo} JPM
01[13:25] {@Threei}  1:1  
[13:26] {dino} ron, sorry was out, whats up?
01[13:27] {@Threei}  1:2  
[13:27] {dino} gj
[13:28] {RonS} dino left $3.50 on table we both be pissed
[13:28] {RonS} dino look TTS... avp
01[13:28] {@Threei}  ty
[13:28] {dino} lol, thx for bringing that to my attention
01[13:28] {@Threei}  out un full
01[13:29] {@Threei}  1:3 close enough
01[13:29] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[13:30] {@Threei}  revenge for DAL stop
[13:32] {dino} avp hl s .53
[13:35] {dino} b/s is .62, holds well
[13:40] {dino} tpg/dealreporter takeover rumors avp
[13:45] {dino} avp stopped -.09
01[13:55] {@Threei}  [FB] Hearing Societe Generale intiates with a Sell rating and $65 price target
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[14:01] {@Threei}  If holds  77 
[14:02] {RonS} Societe Admirale 3i giving FB a buy rating, eh?
01[14:03] {@Threei}  scalp rating rather
01[14:04] {@Threei}  doesn';t look good
01[14:04] {@Threei}  frikin french might be right :)
01[14:05] {@Threei}  yeah
01[14:16] {@Threei}  rinse... somg
01[14:20] {@Threei}  VXX bounce should be close
[14:27] {nemo} I think they run the indexes to the moon
[14:28] {RonS} thanks Jackie
[14:28] {nemo} no problem Alice
01[14:28] {@Threei}  lol
[14:28] {RonS} maybe Norton
01[14:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[14:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[14:31] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[14:38] {nemo} green side of algo continues to climb
[14:38] {nemo} they running this one
[14:38] {dino} core spike
[14:40] {dino} nemo, fxe thoughts? i'm holding june puts
[14:41] {nemo} 116 roof, would think Euro continues south, but this is a headline etf with CB launching currency bombs
[14:43] {nemo} when u buy them dino?
[14:43] {dino} last week, up 33%
[14:43] {nemo} what are they
[14:44] {dino} 114
[14:44] {nemo} you could see that gap close before it goes down again
[14:44] {RonS} hearing that from others fwiw
[14:45] {dino} thx, maybe i'll book it and re-enter on bounce
[14:55] {dptl} have to leave...see ya tomorrow all
01[14:56] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[14:56] {@Threei}  currency bombs?
[14:59] {nemo} Think Swiss
[14:59] {nemo} new QE
[14:59] {dino} market wants 300 +
[15:00] {cosmo} Is that why prec metals rally?
[15:00] {nemo} 206.25
[15:00] {cosmo} new QE?
[15:00] {nemo} ECB
01[15:00] {@Threei}  no cosmo
[15:00] {cosmo} k
01[15:01] {@Threei}  Europe falling apart and Euro bleak perspective creates sitiation where capital flows in both USD and PMs
[15:01] {cosmo} who sells off first?
01[15:01] {@Threei}  which leads to infriquent case of both USD and gold moving up
[15:06] {dino} cosmo, metals drop before the dollar, imo. europe falling apart, china slowing, and more
[15:07] {dino} remember metals priced in dollars
01[15:10] {@Threei}  FB really defied the french
[15:10] {cosmo} how so?
01[15:11] {@Threei}  they downgraded it... it went up
01[15:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[15:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 
[15:12] {cosmo} ah....comeuppance
01[15:14] {@Threei}  ok SPY, lose 206 and die
[15:14] {RonS} a forg craked on his call?
01[15:14] {@Threei}  forg?? :)
[15:15] {RonS} croaked
[15:15] {RonS} frog
01[15:15] {@Threei}  frog?
01[15:15] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:15] {@Threei}  you challenge my english to its limits
01[15:15] {@Threei}  which admittedly are not very remote
[15:15] {cosmo} i hear its very difficult language
01[15:16] {@Threei}  can't tell, never spoke it
[15:16] {dino} out fxe puts +1.10 / 37%
[15:16] {cosmo} i use translators too
01[15:16] {@Threei}  wtg
[15:16] {dino} ty
[15:18] {cosmo} oh ...speaking is different. But you did so well 15 years ago...
01[15:20] {@Threei}  nah, never did... I spoke Russian, just using english words
01[15:20] {@Threei}  those few I knew
01[15:20] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[15:21] {cosmo} hmm..maybe i was speaking Russian and didn't realize it.
01[15:21] {@Threei}  quite possibly
[15:22] {cosmo} especially if it runs in the family
01[15:24] {@Threei}  rinse
01[15:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[15:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[15:43] {@Threei}  trail to .66
01[15:43] {@Threei}  time starts pressing
[15:46] {dino} calling it a day, great morning, thx all, gn
01[15:48] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:49] {dino} thx u2
01[15:57] {@Threei}  closing flat
01[15:57] {@Threei}  thank you, have a good evening

01[15:57] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow