Friday, August 29, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up  Weekly Market UpdateEurope Overshadows S&P 2000

- US stocks began the week on another strong note aided by sentiment out of Europe. The S&P crossed 2000 for the first time ever during Monday's session. Weekend analysis of Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole speech suggested the ECB may be even closer to enacting more stimulus measures. In that speech he noted that market based inflation expectations fell strongly in August, which opened the door to speculation the ECB was ready to act perhaps as early as next week's meeting. European government bond yields plunged to fresh record lows on hopes a healthy dose of QE is just around the corner. Only solidifying those expectations was more tepid economic data from Germany, leaving many to wonder if the Russian sanctions have caused Europe's growth engine to stall. August European CPI readings showed some stabilization at what are already low levels while readings in Belgium and Spain indicated acceleration to the downside. The 10-year Bund yield dropped below 0.90% to a new lifetime low. By Thursday the EONIA fix settled in negative territory for the first time. Despite what was a generally a rosy picture painted by the US data, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.32% which was only a few basis points from fresh lows for the year. For the week, the S&P500 gained 0.7%, the DJIA added 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%.

- Geopolitics, the Ukraine specifically, took center stage once again especially through the back half of the week. Safe haven flows were seen exacerbating the move lower in bond yields and serving as a headwind to stocks. Any goodwill that was exhibited in the handshake between Presidents Putin and Poroshenko on Tuesday quickly dissipated by Wednesday when reports began surfacing that Russian regular army troops were on the ground in parts of Southern Ukraine helping separatist fighters. Poroshenko confirmed as much in a press conference on Thursday noting the situation on the ground had changed significantly. Talks of another round of sanctions started to brew and rising tensions could be seen in the rhetoric from Western officials that followed, demanding that Russia cease its military "incursions." The Russian Ruble fell to a new all-time low against the dollar, past 37. The last time it traded near this level was when Russia seized Crimea this past spring. Separately, Friday the UK raised its terrorist threat level on concerns about hundreds of British citizens fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria could return home intent on wreaking havoc.

- The headlines coming out of Europe largely overshadowed the bulk of the US economic data which showed the rebound in US economic activity is picking up. At 4.2%, Q2 annualized GDP beat consensus expectations by 0.3%. The elevated inventory levels seen in the advance GDP reading last month were revised down less than many analysts had expected, but other parts of the data were more positive for growth going forward. Investment spending was revised up more than expected, due in part to new Q2 data on research and development spending. Also an upward revision to business investment helped boost the Q2 growth rate of domestic demand (real final sales to domestic purchasers) from 2.8% in the advance report to 3.1%. The August Chicago PMI came in well above consensus, reaching levels seen back in May on good growth in new orders. The Conference Board's August US consumer confidence touched the highest level since before the financial crisis, though some view it as a contrarian indicator. Housing remains a sore spot, and the existing home sales report posted a surprise decline m/m making it appear homebuilders may have been a bit too aggressive in raising prices, but the July pending home sales index still painted a constructive picture overall.

The US lending markets appear to be gaining momentum as it works through the scar tissue left from the financial crisis. The latest quarterly checkup from the FDIC revealed in the second quarter banks posted the strongest loan growth since 2007. Net interest income increased nearly 2% y/y which was the fastest pace in more than a year while overall earnings rose 5%. Equifax's National Consumer Credit Trends Report showed that year to date the total amount of new non-mortgage, non-student loan credit originated has grown 11% reaching a 6-year high of $365B. Coincidently cashing in on these improving trends, LendingClub, the world's largest marketplace connecting borrowers and investors filed its long awaited IPO looking to raise $500M.

- The tail end of Q2 earnings season is coming to a close, and it can't be over fast enough for many of the specialty teen retailers, while high end consumers continue to spend. Guess, Abercrombie, Tilly's, Gordmans and Genesco gapped lower after missing expectations and lowering their outlooks. Tiffany's quarterly results topped analyst expectations on robust margin improvement and strong Asia/US SSS, and it also raised FY15 eps targets. In Europe, Hermes and Ferragamo saw results beat expectations sending their stocks higher. Best Buy initially moved down after reporting better than expected earnings on improving profitability in the second quarter. Unfortunately revenues were short of analyst expectations while SSS decline 2% on weakness in consumer electronics, mobile phones in particular. Shares rebounded by the end of the week after many defended the name and also in anticipation of next month's iPhone 6 launch.

- Roche made an all cash play for Intermune at $74/share, 60% above where it was trading when the latest round of takeover speculation broke out in late July. The $8B deal will help Roche expand into the treatment of rare or incurable diseases. On Tuesday Burger King Worldwide Inc. confirmed it had struck a deal to buy Canadian donut chain Tim Horton's Inc. for about $11 billion. Investors welcomed the deal after Warren Buffett got involved in financing the takeover. Berkshire Hathaway committed $3 billion of preferred equity financing and 3G Capital will own about 51% of the new company. Berkshire, which previously joined with 3G to buy H.J. Heinz & Co. in 2013, won't have any participation in the management and operation of the business.

- The USD consolidated its recent gains against the major currencies as it benefited from a divergent view emerging from the G3 central banks (US, ECB and BOJ) at the Jackson Hole symposium last weekend. Draghi's Jackson Hole commentary was viewed as dovish and left the door open for unconventional instruments including QE. The ECB currently appears to be in 'wait-and-see' mode ahead of the September launch of the TLTRO program and its potential impact but that could change with upcoming ECB staff projections. The EUR/USD gapped to an 11-month low below 1.3150 as European stock trading drew to a close on Friday. The EUR/CHF cross hit its lowest level since Jan 2013 (1.2050) sparking speculation on how the SNB will defend its currency floor.

- The Shanghai Composite fell for the first time in 7 weeks, shedding about 1% to close at 2,217. China industrial profits growth slowed to 13.5% from 17.9%, weighed down by the mining sector where profitability contracted 13.2%. The July Conference Board leading index matched an 8-month high, but resident economists noted "improvement was driven primarily by an increase in new floor space starts, which is unsustainable in the longer-term", adding that bank lending activity offered its weakest contribution since January 2012. Amid the rising speculation of greater probability of an easing sometime before the end of the year, the PBoC boosted its weekly liquidity injection to a net CNY45B from just CNY11B in the prior week.

- In Japan, the cabinet office maintained its economic assessment of "moderate recovery trend" intact, but warned about the possibility of prolonged impact from sales-tax related consumption decline and also cut its view of corporate profitability. The balance of July economic data remained largely mixed - the unemployment rate rose for the second consecutive month but the job-applicant ratio hit a 22-year high. Household spending contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and the leading Tokyo core CPI for August slowed to a 4-month low. USD/JPY hit a 7-month high near ¥104.30 early in the week after BOJ Governor Kuroda stated that the central bank might have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for "some time" to fully vanquish deflation. Late next week, BOJ will announce its policy decision, and PM Abe will unveil the details of cabinet reshuffle on September 3rd.

Aug 29 2014

VXX 1:3, nice opening trade to finish August

With couple more wins, happy to finish this month. Activity should start slowly picking up now.

Session Time: Fri Aug 29 00:00:00 2014
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:19] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -AVGI +4% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SPLK +6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -VEEV +11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -UEPS +16% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -OVTI +2% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -CRTO +16% (take out speculation)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -NXPI +3% (speculation technolgy used in upcoming iPhone)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TSLA +2% (reports of china expasion with China Unicom)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -RALY +8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -DGLY +8% (momentum)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -MBT -4% (downgrade)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -BIG -2.5% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  Putin says Russia to increase its nuclear, defense potential to feel safe
[09:37] {dino} obummer decreases nukes and putin ups them
01[09:37] {@Threei}  I start suspecting they have common goal
[09:37] {nemo} all you need are subs
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 64.3 V 56.5E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:49] {dino} cmcm drop
01[09:50] {@Threei}  will try for 1:4 on VXX
[09:50] {nemo} you should hold a piece if you can all day
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:56] {@Threei}  UK PM Cameron: First time in 3 years threat level has been at Substantial - Root cause of threat is poisonous Islamist ideology
01[09:56] {@Threei}  you don't say
01[09:58] {@Threei}  closed last piece
[10:04] {dino} cmcm hl l .31 stop lod break
01[10:09] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .75 break
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:10] {nemo} see vxx
[10:11] {nemo} s lvs .65
01[10:11] {@Threei}  stop to .81
[10:12] {nemo} stop .62
[10:13] {nemo} 1:1
[10:14] {nemo} sheesh
[10:19] {dino} uthr spike
[10:19] {nemo} why?
[10:23] {dino} uthr sm s .76
[10:27] {dino} uthr all over the place. uthr=pulp
[10:27] {dino} added kndi calls
01[10:27] {@Threei}  UTHR Strength attributed to chatter of a favorable ruling in a court case
[10:28] {dino} cmcm stuck in puddle of mud
[10:28] {RonS} kndi secondary direct placement at 17.10
[10:28] {dino} ty ron, saw that, bought time
[10:31] {dino} uthr stopped
[10:34] {RonS} If a JV player puts on a suit & tie and rides around in Air Force One, it doesn't mean he's Ronald Reagan.
01[10:35] {@Threei}  lol
[10:36] {dino} uthr smr s .98
[10:37] {dino} damn, gappy moves
[10:37] {dino} i'm too slow today
01[10:38] {@Threei}  market was slow whole august, so that's your revenge to it
[10:39] {dino} lol, but doesmn't help the wallet
[10:39] {dino} last try smr s uthr 104.53
[10:40] {dino} f#ck, done w/it
[10:41] {dino} smr s .63
[10:42] {RonS} cab drop
01[10:47] {@Threei}
01[10:47] {@Threei}  [UTHR] Loses bid to block generics of Remodulin until 2029 - financial press **NOTE: UTHR has been in lititgation with Novartis' Sandoz over generic Remodulin
01[10:48] {@Threei}  (RU) Russian Defense minister's flight is blocked by Poland- Plane has landed in Bratislavia
[10:48] {dino} finally, cov uthr 103.60, +3.03
01[10:48] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:49] {dino} after asll of those stops, i'm up about 200
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ramp-up of hostilies is unbelieavable
[10:49] {dino} and markets don't care so far
[10:50] {dino} this holiday weekend may be out of control
01[10:51] {@Threei}  Ukraine pushes for NATO membership
01[10:51] {@Threei}  and current NATO commander would be happy to take them in, if that was his decision
[10:53] {dino} seems poland only country willing to help ukraine so far
[10:53] {nemo} is that help?
[10:54] {dino} nato needs to let them in. them smack putin hard
[10:54] {dino} and the lesson in all of this, never give up your nukes
01[10:55] {@Threei}  Poland can identify
01[10:55] {@Threei}  Russia did the same thing to them in 80s
01[10:56] {@Threei}  secret invasion
01[11:06] {@Threei}  US traders largely unwilling to commit ahead of holiday break
01[11:07] {@Threei}  Geopolitical developments continue to weigh on peoples' minds. Ukraine remains a sore spot as it appears we are headed toward another round of sanctions. European leaders are meeting at summit tomorrow and NATO convenes next week.
[11:11] {dino} wow uthr
[11:13] {RonS} uthr...what happens with 5 mil sh short
[11:15] {dino} pain
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:21] {dino} wtf, that must e some drug, uthr +28%
[11:25] {RonS} unreal:
[11:27] {RonS} lol...  Now that Chelsea Clinton's resigned, there's an opening at NBC News for the position of not doing shit for $50k a month.
01[11:27] {@Threei}  can I take it part tme?
01[11:27] {@Threei}  and remotely?
[11:28] {dino} roflol ron
[11:28] {RonS} really pathetic:  No strategy for ISIS yet, but 3 fundraisers and an MSNBC host's wedding to attend tomorrow.
[11:29] {RonS} ISIS Threatens America: "We Will Raise The Flag Of Allah In The White House" (I suspect Barry already has one)
01[11:29] {@Threei}  busy busy busy
[11:30] {dino} vsm s uthr .96
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:31] {dino} i've said it before and i'll say it again, religion is ruining the world
01[11:33] {@Threei}  and each of them agrees, with one correction: "THEIR religion is ruining the world"
[11:33] {dino} my god is better than your god bullshit
01[11:34] {@Threei}  yup
[11:36] {RonS}
01[11:40] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[11:40] {@Threei}  I swear if I see one more person enter this WalMart wearing pajamas, I am going to take the belt off my bathrobe and choke them with it
[11:42] {RonS} Polish PM Tusk wants to become the EU president and get tough on Russia:
[11:42] {dino} awesome
01[11:42] {@Threei}  Putin: OK, move Poland up on the list, Belarus and Kazakhstan can wait
[11:43] {RonS}  "Life is tough, life is tougher when you're stupid" John Wayne
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Ukraine said on Aug. 29 it would seek the protection of NATO membership after what Kyiv and its Western allies say is the open participation of the Russian military in the war in Ukraine's eastern provinces.
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Ukraine's ambassador to Canada begs for troops to counter Russian invasion
01[11:43] {@Threei}  headlines start getting hysterical
01[11:44] {@Threei}  and scroll as if it's not August
[11:44] {RonS} pass the koolaid:  Democrats are more afraid of global warming than the threat posed by the Islamic State terrorists, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.
01[11:45] {@Threei}  mental disease of some kind...
[11:45] {dino} govt run by idiots
01[11:45] {@Threei}  I say send them in Irq and see what they die of first, ISIS or heat
01[11:46] {@Threei}  now, this tops the stupid list:
01[11:46] {@Threei}  TV main source of info for most Russians on Ukraine events; over half believe it is unbiased
01[11:46] {@Threei}  right... TV run by state
01[11:46] {@Threei}  is unbiased on state's affairs
[11:56] {cosmo} I worry about resurging ice sheets... No one talks about it...hmm
[11:59] {dino} me too cosmo, been running about 10 degrees below normal here for a year+
[12:00] {cosmo} what does not melt becomes next years base...
[12:04] {cosmo} Too bad they shut down the Mt Saint Helens volcano/snow was a good indacator of this process.
01[12:07] {@Threei}  FB almost made 1:2
[12:10] {dino} uthr stop -.30
[12:36] {dino} crto drop
[12:37] {dino} smr l .78
[12:38] {dino} out crto .43, +.65
01[12:38] {@Threei}  nice
[12:38] {dino} ty
[13:16] {dino} calling it a week, enjoy the long weekend all
01[13:16] {@Threei}  puff
[13:17] {nemo} ?
01[13:17] {@Threei}  nevermind
[13:18] {RonS} ya outta here too...have a good one guys
01[13:19] {@Threei}  OK, closing FB
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1: 1.5
01[13:19] {@Threei}  have a great long weeked guys
01[13:19] {@Threei}  see you Tuesday

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Aug 28 2014

Decent day with 5 calls 4 of which were winning. 

Session Time: Thu Aug 28 00:00:00 2014
[09:16] {dino} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TKMR +8.2% (rumor of 4+ big drug companies considering making bids for company)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TI +2.6% (makes cash and stock offer for Vivendi's Brazilian unit GVT worth €7B)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -LAS +13% (enters JV w/Bitauto and UXIN to launch O2O platform for high-end pre-owned cars in China)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -SCOK +13% (projects $10-15M gross profit from Syngas sales in 2015)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DGLY +17% (receives $1.1M order from state police of Michigan)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ETRM +15% (announces 3 year diabetes, hypertension and weight loss data from ENABLE study)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -RPRX +20% (Androxal achieves superiority in top-line analysis versus marketed topical gel for studies in treatment of secondary hypogonadism)
[09:18] {RonS} hello everyone
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GES -7.7% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -VMEM -4.5% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GMAN -5.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TLYS -9.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -WSM -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ANF -6.1% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -DXLG -1.1% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GCO -7.7% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -COTY -2.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -JCP -2.0% (BTIG cuts to Neutral from Buy on valuation)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:19] {nemo} gawd this is painful
[09:20] {RonS} Latest Ukraine fighting sees separatists gaining ground:
01[09:21] {@Threei}  only it's not separatists
01[09:21] {@Threei}  it's russian regular army
[09:21] {nemo} Spetznaz
01[09:21] {@Threei}  proxies are not good anymore
[09:21] {nemo} Chechens
[09:21] {nemo} Putin is a Kunach with Chechens now
[09:24] {RonS} ok, will bite...Kunach?
[09:26] {nemo} it's a "blood brother"
[09:26] {nemo} for lack of a better descriptino
[09:26] {nemo} description
01[09:26] {@Threei}  yeah, kind of spiritual brotherhood
[09:28] {nemo} it's a big deal actually...Muslim chechens and Russians.  There's a history of it actually, some amazing things have transpired as a result of such relationships
01[09:29] {@Threei}  FB... if copnsolidates for a min or two, range 74 - .10 will be tradeable
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  74 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .75 break
[09:42] {nemo} by @.60ish
[09:42] {nemo} buy
01[09:42] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:42] {nemo} drop below .65
01[09:43] {@Threei}  trail to .64
01[09:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  .69 now
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:2  TWTR
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:2  VXX
[09:49] {nemo} twtr a monster
[09:52] {dino} rh sm l .00
[09:58] {RonS} 2 columns of tanks from Russia have entered strategic Ukrainian town of Novoazovsk, security spokesman says - @AP
[09:59] {dino} out rh .00, +1.00
[09:59] {RonS} gj
01[09:59] {@Threei}  nice
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 3.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -2.7% V -3.5%E
[10:00] {troub} excellent Dino
[10:00] {dino} they are going to give ukraine to russia
[10:00] {dino} ty
01[10:01] {@Threei}  Novoazovsk is a key city to Mariupol, and taking Mariupol means opening Azov sea coast for easy access to Ukraine from the whole coastal line
01[10:01] {@Threei}  that's the end of all this "rebels, separatists" nonsense
01[10:02] {@Threei}  it's open invasion and war
[10:08] {dino} added rh calls
[10:08] {dino} ageed 3i, and the western world is in denial
01[10:09] {@Threei}  it's not even that they don't get it, they do
01[10:09] {@Threei}  they just don't know what to do about it, and have zero appetite for real action
[10:09] {dino} they will not accept that its happening
[10:09] {dino} ostrich
01[10:09] {@Threei}  so they pretend they don't see it
[10:10] {troub} but the people of Poland welcome the Russians. Oops meant Ukraine.
[10:11] {dino} my niece was sent to poland with united tech last month, air defense
[10:12] {troub} Europe ignores 1939
01[10:16] {@Threei}  and history repeats
[10:17] {dino} 07 red scroll
[10:20] {RonS} UN: Armed group detains 43 peacekeepers in the Golan Heights; 81 others 'restricted to their positions' - @AP
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .15 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[10:22] {nemo} FB looks more short to me but no energy either way
[10:29] {ese} hey all.....just thought that i would pop in to say hi before walking the picket line........hope your havng a great week.....i'm getting pistol whipped by the sun
01[10:29] {@Threei}  hey ese
01[10:29] {@Threei}  should cool off today
[10:30] {ese} thank christ
[10:30] {nemo} oh jeez a christian communist
[10:31] {ese} lol
[10:31] {ese} i needed that
[10:31] {nemo} you'd look good on the cross
[10:31] {ese} casue this ain't fun
[10:31] {ese} cause
[10:31] {ese} naked?
[10:31] {nemo} nailed
[10:32] {ese} lol
[10:32] {nemo} you naked conjures images of Medusa
[10:32] {ese} would be alot less painfull full for sure
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:40] {ese} am outta here.....have a geat day.....don't forget vad.....The Midnights are playing Blues Bash 3:45 on Monday...
01[10:40] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:40] {@Threei}  have a good one ese
[10:40] {ese} cya
[10:42] {RonS} curious that ese seems ok with the strike ruining his summer...I would be PO'd...
[10:43] {nemo} he's picketing for the glory of the Proletariat
[10:43] {nemo} musicians are brain damaged by nature anyway
[10:43] {RonS} glory of the coddled...
01[10:43] {@Threei}  they actually skipped about a month and half of strike, preferring vacation
01[10:44] {@Threei}  now that the school is about to open, strike is back on, full force
01[10:44] {@Threei}  nice eh?
[10:44] {nemo} yeah, fuck the kids...that's when it has the most impact
01[10:44] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[10:45] {RonS} anyone polling public opinion over the strike?
01[10:48] {@Threei}  not that I've seen
01[10:49] {@Threei}  but I am sure goverment has its own internal polling which shows they win
01[10:49] {@Threei}  because they continue pushing
01[10:49] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine claims two columns of russian military vehicles have been destroyed
[10:50] {RonS} motorcycles?
01[10:50] {@Threei}  they wish
[10:51] {RonS} hey, the Japanese Army conquored the Malaysian Peninsula on bicycles...
[11:00] {RonS} gpro ramp
01[11:07] {@Threei}  market entered frozen stage
[11:09] {nemo} market doesn't care about Ukraine probably gap close
[11:11] {RonS} gpro recording its moonshot?
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
[11:11] {dino} stupid camera company.
01[11:12] {@Threei}  GM Reportedly recalls additional vehicles related to faulty roof air bags
01[11:12] {@Threei}  man... is anything right with those vehicles?
[11:14] {RonS} worked for a company that statistically proved to itself that a successful repair experience engendered a more loyal customer than those who never had a problem...just sayin...
01[11:14] {@Threei}  lol
[11:15] {RonS} lol...then's out of business...
01[11:15] {@Threei}  - Geopolitics, the Ukraine specifically, have taken center stage once again in today's markets. Stocks traded lower in Asia and Europe which resulted in a lower US open as the latest round of escalation weighed on sentiment. Yesterday reports were surfacing that Russian troops were on the ground in parts of Southern Ukraine helping separatists. President Poroshenko confirmed as much in a press conference noting the situation on the ground had changed significantly. Talks of another round of sanctions are starting to brew as tensions are rising.
01[11:16] {@Threei}  US Treasury and German Bund markets are the beneficiaries again as rates move lower
01[11:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  116 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:41] {RonS} EZCH EZchip moves up on speculation it has canceled several conferences
[11:42] {RonS} Ebola humor spreads awareness and eases tension in West Africa:
[11:43] {RonS} thinking all tension relieved once dead...
01[11:43] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine will hold an emergency meeting with NATO this Friday
[11:45] {dino} out hclp calls from 8/12, +1.32/+40%
[11:47] {RonS} gj
[11:49] {dino} ty
[11:50] {dino} emergency meeting friday with 3 day weekend, hmmm
01[11:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:54] {dino} gj
[11:54] {nemo} RSH news?
01[11:54] {@Threei}  2 days ago
[11:54] {RonS} they got some financing...
01[11:54] {@Threei}  rescue package
[11:55] {nemo} delaying the inevitable
[11:55] {dino} standard general lp stake in it
[11:55] {RonS} ya
01[11:55] {@Threei}  (UR) Russian official denies military units have moved across the Ukraine border - Other than the 9 Russian servicemen who accidentally crossed the border and were detained.
01[11:55] {@Threei}  they accidentally got lost, you see
[11:55] {RonS} 9? why not 8 or 11?
[11:55] {nemo} I met one of the heirs to the Tandy fortune way back when, she had just gotten out of the hospital and fired her accountant for embezzling money to buy a Ferrari
[11:56] {RonS} small fry then...
[11:57] {dino} putin is something else, he uses the 3 d rule. deny, deny, deny the  and world believes.
[11:58] {RonS} first boss in the 1970's...remember, your integrity is important...never steal unless it's at least a million dollars...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  not believes really... just doesn't want to deal with it
01[11:58] {@Threei}  because 9 were taken prisoners, ron
01[11:58] {@Threei}  so those were 9 that got lost :)
01[11:59] {@Threei}  couple thousands more were not caught, so they do not exist
[11:59] {nemo}
[11:59] {nemo} I think it's been in Congresses water supply for a while
[12:13] {nemo} mon low is it's 200 day
01[12:19] {@Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: EU summit on Saturday will discuss possible tougher sanctions on Russia
01[12:19] {@Threei}  the more I look at this the more I think, who woyuld want to have any longs into this weekend
[12:20] {nemo} vxx
01[12:20] {@Threei}  closer to eod
01[12:20] {@Threei}  not now
[12:22] {dino} feeling the same way 3i
[12:22] {dino} and yet the markets are moving up
[12:22] {nemo} US doesn't give a shit about Ukraine
[12:22] {nemo} markets worked fine under the old Soviet Union
[12:22] {dino} looks that way, nor does europe
01[12:23] {@Threei}  no, but general instability still matters
01[12:23] {@Threei}  in fact, I think they'd be happy if Putin could swallow Ukraine in one day
[12:23] {nemo} Putin won't push this much farther for a while
01[12:23] {@Threei}  no more problem
[12:23] {nemo} Oligarchs need to make money
[12:24] {dino} what easier way to make money than by taking territory
[12:25] {dino} out rh calls from earlier, +1.08/+23%
[12:27] {nemo} might get a vxx bounce play near 28
[12:31] {nemo} long .06 VXX
[12:46] {nemo} scratched it
[13:12] {nemo} c'mon Vad we need a 1:10
01[13:12] {@Threei}  uhhu
01[13:25] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[13:25] {@Threei}  e-mail I just got:
01[13:25] {@Threei}  Attn: Your Bride has been selected. see correspondence below
01[13:25] {@Threei}  We are contacting you today to introduce you to your new Beautiful-Asian Bride.
01[13:25] {@Threei}  Go here now to see who you has been selected just for you:
01[13:26] {@Threei}  yeah, but last N years my wife was picking things for me... can I ask her to review your choice?
[13:26] {RonS} rotflol
[13:35] {nemo} looks like .06 was the magic level on VXX
01[13:39] {@Threei}
[13:54] {cosmo} That's an Asain turtle?
01[13:54] {@Threei}  red footed tortoise
[13:55] {cosmo} k
[13:56] {cosmo} also looks like a yellow headed tortoise
01[14:01] {@Threei}  in case you needed more reason to visit my neck of the woods:
01[14:01] {@Threei}
[14:05] {RonS} schizo dish?  cold tuna on hot tuna?
01[14:14] {@Threei}  SPY doesn't look like caving in eh?
[14:14] {nemo} .18 range since 12:30
[14:22] {dino} so vad, how you gonna pull off the new bride with your wife?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  still devising the logistics
[14:23] {nemo} yeah, where he's gonna' live when his wife throws him out
01[14:23] {@Threei}  maybe sushi idea can help, wife loves them
[14:23] {dino} good luck
01[14:23] {@Threei}  so I might try and sell the idea of a new sushi tray
[14:24] {dino} going to take a lot more than that
01[14:28] {@Threei}  .25 break VXX... trap or real
01[14:29] {@Threei}  chart looks right
01[14:29] {@Threei}  a bit too early for eod drop
01[14:29] {@Threei}  not sure
01[14:29] {@Threei}  for your discretion
[15:01] {troub} starting holiday weekend early.  Enjoy weekend all.
[15:01] {RonS} have a good one troub...
01[15:01] {@Threei}  have a great one troub
[15:01] {dino} u2 troub
01[15:01] {@Threei}  see you Tiesday
01[15:01] {@Threei}  1:1 VXX
01[15:01] {@Threei}  who went for it
[15:02] {RonS} yuk yuk...
01[15:42] {@Threei}  no selloff
01[15:48] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:48] {@Threei}  decent day
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a great evbening, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {dino} gn all

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Aug 27 2014

Tech problems cut log short midday, sorry. Not much lost though, as it was a day with about 20% less volume than 3-months average.

Session Time: Wed Aug 27 00:00:00 2014
[09:04] {dino} gm
[09:04] {RonS} hello
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino, ron :)
[09:13] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:13] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:13] {@Threei}  SPY volume, sheesh
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ARUN +7.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NMBL +3.8% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TUBE +32% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TIF +2.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EXPR +11% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -REX +8.0% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DCI +5.7% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ISNS +35% (seeing continued momentum)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -MOBL +6.6% (momentum)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -HPJ +16% (HEV/PHEV lithium-ion power battery successfully receives national level approval in China)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EDMC +9.1% (reaches agreement in principle w/creditors on debt restructuring)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NTWK +19% (signs $16M contract to implement NFS Ascent Solution)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SWHC -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SDRL -3.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -YGE -5.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SWHC -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -SDRL -3.8% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -YGE -5.6% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TLM -3.0% (report that combination talks w/Repsol stalled)
[09:21] {nemo} .5 mil spy shares so far...oy vay
01[09:21] {@Threei}  [09:13] {@Threei} SPY volume, sheesh
01[09:21] {@Threei}  see what happens when you are late?
01[09:21] {@Threei}  I have to express unhappiness with the world replacing you
[09:21] {nemo} just avoiding unnecessary ramblings of a mad man
01[09:22] {@Threei}  but... we like those
[09:23] {nemo} speak for yourself
01[09:25] {@Threei}  why... you may not know that, but once a week I poll the room - do we let nemo in or not
01[09:25] {@Threei}  every time it's unanimous yes
[09:26] {nemo} MMmmmhhhh...I'm reminded of Groucho's comment about not wanting to be a member of any club that would want him
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
[09:32] {dino} out db calls from last week, +.40/88%
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:32] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:32] {dino} ty
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
[09:35] {nemo} FB
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:46] {nemo} IWM likely headed towards .50ish
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
[09:58] {dino} adding vxx calls
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:01] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:02] {@Threei}  stop to .59
01[10:06] {@Threei}  .64 now of course
01[10:06] {@Threei}  .69
[10:11] {nemo} FB looks short
[10:11] {RonS} “Regular Russian units are operating in eastern Ukraine":
01[10:11] {@Threei}  yup... invasion by any other name...
01[10:12] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .35 break
01[10:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:16] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:21] {nemo} Chinese water torture market
[10:33] {dino} no kidding
[10:34] {nemo} at least waterboarding is fast
01[10:34] {@Threei}  lol
[10:45] {dino} anet spike
01[10:51] {@Threei}  BABA Sources say Alibaba is eyeing Sept 23rd as a "likely" IPO date
01[10:59] {@Threei}
[11:00] {nemo} self portraits now?
01[11:00] {@Threei}  that's me sober Monday morning
[11:01] {RonS} scaling in to a position?
01[11:02] {@Threei}  lol
[11:02] {cosmo} almost looks ET
[11:02] {cosmo} but I give you the benifit of the doubt...
01[11:03] {@Threei}  you'd be the first
[11:03] {nemo}
01[11:04] {@Threei}  the rest just ask inderstandingly "Jupiter or Saturn?"
[11:06] {cosmo} or maybe subterranean
[11:09] {dino} added anet puts

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Aug 26 2014

Difficult to say whether it's just one day or patterns start reasserting themselves, but much better trading environment than yesterday, with positive balance. Hopefully it's a beginning of a trend... end of August... etc.

Session Time: Tue Aug 26 00:00:00 2014
01[09:02] {@Threei}  stillst, see private message
[09:06] {nemo} What a surprise...low spy volume today
01[09:06] {@Threei}  still august :)
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:10] {RonS} gm all
01[09:11] {@Threei}  Ron, welcome back
01[09:11] {@Threei}  how was the trip?
[09:11] {dino} good time ron?
[09:12] {RonS} had a nice time...40 years later, and the wife an I haven't killed each other...yet...
01[09:13] {@Threei}  I have 9 years to go to reach your record :)
[09:14] {nemo} damning with faint praise
[09:15] {RonS} sd a real convention town...very few homeless and didn't get panhandled once...with the amount of walking we did would have got hit 1000 times in sf
[09:17] {RonS} carrier group carl vinson set sail on 10 month deployment...idiots in dc must not have figured out where to send them...2 days late destroyers cruising through sd bay with nowhere to go...unreal...
01[09:17] {@Threei}  lol
[09:18] {troub} good morning
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:18] {RonS} carrier reagan in port getting a 2 yr $1 bil retrofit...unreal
[09:20] {_biotrader} morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  biotrader :)
[09:21] {RonS} carriers reagan, vinson, and even 50's carrier museum midway on end taller than any building in sd...unreal
01[09:21] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -KITE +16% (positive results for non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma patients after receiving anti-CD29 Chimeric Antigen receptor)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -DGLY +18% (continued momentum)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -DSW +11% (earnings)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -THI +11% (confirmed deal with BKW Buffett involved in financing)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -BKW +4.5% (reached agreement w/THI, BRK.B takes stake)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -ACHN +4.4% (potential takeover rumors fueling growth)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  -MBLY +4.2% (initiated at most major brokerages with either buy or outperform ratings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -DRL -20% (collapse of settlement negotiations with Puerto Rico)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -TSL -7.7% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -BBY -5.5% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -SAFM -5.4% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -MOV -4.6% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -NFLX -0.6% (shut out at Emmys)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -KANG -15% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -ADEP -17% (earnings)
[09:22] {RonS} old saying...inversion happen...thi
[09:22] {RonS} inversions
[09:22] {RonS} canada corporate tax rate -10% vis us...
[09:24] {RonS} freakin ltm was laying out reit strategy at meeting w/ big investors when met him on break...and he didn't even tell
01[09:24] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:24] {@Threei}  watching FB for short on 72 break
[09:27] {RonS} Ukrainians will vote in early parliamentary elections after coalition collapses:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  unless there is no Ukraine by then
[09:28] {stillstanding} FB you mean 75
01[09:28] {@Threei}  yes... gone anyway
[09:29] {RonS} heard O went to Emmys "because when you are not working you need to keep your name out there"
[09:31] {nemo} BBY
01[09:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .60 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:35] {@Threei}  meh
[09:35] {stillstanding} too fast never got in
[09:35] {nemo} do it here
01[09:35] {@Threei}  not sure
01[09:35] {@Threei}  SPY decided up
01[09:35] {@Threei}  let's wait for more definitive setup
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:38] {@Threei}  stop to .74
01[09:39] {@Threei}  not liking how heavy it is
01[09:39] {@Threei}  normally makes it much fastre this early in the morning
01[09:43] {@Threei}  mover like FB has troubles to go more than 5 cents from trigger, eh?
01[09:44] {@Threei}  let's take half off
01[09:44] {@Threei}  .87
01[09:45] {@Threei}  stop to .79
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:47] {@Threei}  finally some life on this planet
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:47] {@Threei}  .98
01[09:47] {@Threei}  stop to .84
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:47] {@Threei}  stop .89
01[09:51] {@Threei}  to .94
01[09:52] {@Threei}  out in full
01[09:52] {@Threei}  whew... as if I unloaded a railcar of charcoal
01[09:52] {@Threei}  don't remember opening trade being this slow
[09:53] {troub} well played vad
01[09:53] {@Threei}  ty
[09:53] {stillstanding} at least I did not hear the bastard word
01[09:53] {@Threei}  no, FB is a good girl this morning... a bit slow, but :)
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  NVDA  .30 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 92.4 V 89.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  consumer is confident
01[10:00] {@Threei}  yay
01[10:02] {@Threei}  disregard NVDA
01[10:02] {@Threei}  C is getting ahead of itself
01[10:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  52 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:04] {@Threei}  if triggers, looks like nice kangaroo tail
01[10:04] {@Threei}  ok C, start being useful
01[10:05] {@Threei}  even though you are bank
01[10:09] {@Threei}  stop to .06
01[10:10] {@Threei}  ugh
[10:12] {stillstanding} no name calling?
[10:13] {stillstanding} it was a scary contratrend entry
01[10:13] {@Threei}  it was standard reversal setup, we play these all the time
01[10:14] {@Threei}  to stop it dead in its tracks and not repeat this yeaterday's show: I am asking you to refrain from comments judging our trades until you study our courses
01[10:14] {@Threei}  deal?
[10:14] {stillstanding} done.
01[10:14] {@Threei}  thank you
06[10:14] * nemo racks slide on colt 1911
[10:16] {nemo} watch .35 area on C
01[10:16] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .70 break
01[10:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:18] {nemo} LVS
[10:20] {nemo} C
01[10:29] {@Threei}  30 cents SPY range
01[10:43] {@Threei}  [MO] Court rules against Philip Morrisa USA in its bid over documents in a whistleblower lawsuit
01[10:45] {@Threei}  BKW
01[10:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BKW  .55 break hl
01[10:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:47] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:47] {@Threei}  stop .49
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:51] {@Threei}  Canada is concerned about Russia’s military expansion in the Arctic and is ready to defend its interests in the region using military force, John Baird, Canadian foreign affairs minister, told the Berlingske newspaper Monday.
[10:52] {RonS} gonna draft ese?
01[10:52] {@Threei}  get ready folks... forget Ukraine, soon you'll have to defend Canada from russianinvasion from north
01[10:52] {@Threei}  we do have 3 canadian geese with guns guarding the airspace
01[10:52] {@Threei}  but beyond that, not much
[10:53] {RonS} us to send goose drones to defend artic...
[10:54] {RonS} ese to man green peace boat to defend polar bears...
01[10:54] {@Threei}  he'll drum up support from puffins
01[10:54] {@Threei}  (see what I did there?)
[10:54] {RonS} like it...
01[10:55] {@Threei}  poor ese... stands in picket line and has no idea that we already drafted him
[10:55] {RonS} will be head of class since already knows how to march...
01[10:56] {@Threei}  BKW stop .49 of course
01[10:56] {@Threei}  closed
[10:57] {stillstanding} too fast missed entry.
01[10:57] {@Threei}  hmmm?
[10:57] {nemo} set buy price .02 above break price
01[10:57] {@Threei}  it spent considerable time at .56
01[10:58] {@Threei}  and even returned to it right after break
[10:58] {stillstanding} my fault
01[10:58] {@Threei}  if this kind of entry is problem, I am not sure about that broker of yors
[10:58] {dino} grub sm l .60
[10:59] {dino} qihu sm l .80
[11:00] {stillstanding} i was too slow to enter order..
[11:02] {dino} grub stopped .30 -.30
01[11:04] {@Threei}  BBY SSS decline 2% on weakness in consumer electronics, mobile phones in particular.
01[11:04] {@Threei}  my fault... I still haven't bought any smartphone...
[11:04] {nemo} me neither
01[11:05] {@Threei}  between two of us, BBY has no chance
[11:05] {dino} safm sm l .00
[11:07] {dino} out qihu .27, +.47
01[11:08] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:08] {dino} ty
[11:10] {dino} out safm .40, +.40
[11:17] {stillstanding} twtr l .11
[11:23] {dino} safm sm l .00
[11:23] {dino} out safm .59, +.59
[11:24] {RonS} jumpy chicken?
[11:24] {stillstanding} out twtr .09 -.02
[11:24] {dino} pulp
[11:24] {RonS} lol...pulp chicken
01[11:24] {@Threei}  lol
[11:25] {dino} damn that kept going
[11:32] {stillstanding} WMT l .71
[11:35] {stillstanding} out WMT .71 0.0
01[11:35] {@Threei}  are you generating commissions for your broker?
[11:36] {stillstanding} demo commissions only:)
01[11:36] {@Threei}  doesn't matter really... paper trading should be done the same ad you would do real one, otherwise what's the point
[11:38] {stillstanding} That's the way I would have traded with a live account (paper cuts)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  that's the way to make your broker immensely happy while not adding anything to your own profits
[11:39] {stillstanding} i know. that is why i need to learn.
01[11:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: BKW  .40 break hl
01[11:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[11:46] {dino} kang sm l .82
[11:48] {dino} ann spike
01[11:49] {@Threei}  half out
01[11:50] {@Threei}  .26
[11:50] {dino} ann sm s .65
[11:50] {dino} wide
[11:51] {RonS} ANN to hire $JPM to explore strategic alternatives"
[11:55] {dino} too soon, stopped .04
[11:56] {dino} reload s .55
[11:57] {RonS} michael j fox been wondering where amzn has been?  "@ZacksResearch: Do you think Amazon's buyout of Twitch for a $1 billion is a good investment?
01[11:57] {@Threei}  lol
[11:57] {RonS} sue he would have sold them his for far less...ok...real bad joke...
[11:57] {stillstanding} BKW filled at .38 tried for .21 out at .39 . demo no stops allowed.
[11:58] {nemo} shorted .60 IWM
01[12:02] {@Threei}  [11:49] {@Threei} half out
01[12:02] {@Threei}  [11:50] {@Threei} .26
[12:04] {nemo} target .48 first piece
[12:04] {nemo} .58 stop
[12:11] {stillstanding} long C 52.19
[12:38] {dino} c'mon ann lose 42.00
[12:38] {stillstanding} dino: is that a prayer or a request?
01[12:39] {@Threei}  Ann: lose what?
[12:39] {RonS} at least spelled correctly...ese:  loose....
01[12:39] {@Threei}  that's canadian spelling
[12:41] {stillstanding} out C 52.17 - .02
[12:42] {dino} lol
[12:43] {dino} stillstand, no praying here, that was an order, that was unfortunately disobeyed
01[12:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[12:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[12:52] {@Threei}  following dino's example... SPY, lose .40!
01[12:54] {@Threei}  with about the same success, eh?
[12:56] {dino} lol
[12:58] {stillstanding} it's only 1 trade of many :)
[12:59] {stillstanding} ez to say on demo
01[13:10] {@Threei}  hmmm... I get from SPY what I wanted (unlike dino from Ann), byt VXX is not in a rush to follow
01[13:11] {@Threei}  sorry dino, I am afraid Ann is just not into you
[13:13] {dino} just broke
01[13:14] {@Threei}  Secret US - Russia talks on Ukraine held in Finland
01[13:15] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[13:17] {dino} out some lci calls from last week, +.70/18%
[13:25] {dino} ann bs to .95
[13:26] {dino} bita, a bit-a crazy last 5 days
[13:28] {dino} cov ann, .95, +.60
[13:39] {nemo} boy are they holding up the IWM today]
01[13:41] {@Threei}  look at the range
01[13:42] {@Threei}  volume too leaves to desire
01[13:54] {@Threei}  (UR) Bilateral talks previously scheduled for today between Ukraine and Russia said to have been cancelled - unsubstantiated tweets citing Ukraine TV
[13:57] {Raven} an "unsubstantiated tweet" - what a world - sheesh
01[13:57] {@Threei}  lol
[14:02] {oka} hello
01[14:02] {@Threei}  hi oka
[14:02] {oka} how do i get to reality trader chat?
[14:02] {nemo} LSD
[14:02] {oka} hi threei
01[14:03] {@Threei}  see private message please
01[14:09] {@Threei}  let's see if nemo's IWM gives us entry on pullback
01[14:10] {@Threei}  btw... notice that small caps outperform SPY
01[14:10] {@Threei}  when does this usually happen?
[14:11] {nemo} bull market and beginning of euphoria
[14:11] {stillstanding} when i am short them?
[14:11] {nemo} risk on dude
01[14:11] {@Threei}  final stages of the bull market
01[14:11] {@Threei}  and lol stillstanding
[14:12] {nemo} they can go for awhile still
[14:12] {nemo} a long while
01[14:12] {@Threei}  oh, of course
01[14:12] {@Threei}  nobody says final stage is hours or days
01[14:13] {@Threei}  and nobody says it's fully here already, it's just one day observation
[14:13] {nemo} probably next spring once in sixth year of Obama's term
01[14:13] {@Threei}  but picture consists of many pieces, so just observing one of them
01[14:16] {@Threei}  forms breakout instead of pullback
01[14:16] {@Threei}  not inclined to trade breakouts right now
[14:16] {nemo} 117 awful tempting
01[14:21] {@Threei}  (UR) Belarus President Lukashenko: Talks on Ukraine agree on a need for de-escalation; Some fundamental differences exist, but having the meeting itself was a success - Putin and Poroshenko agree to have bilateral meeting and said to now be under way
01[14:21] {@Threei}  fundamental differences, eh? like: to shoot at each other or not
[14:24] {nemo} can make an argument for IWM short here
01[14:24] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[14:24] {@Threei}  you are a brave one
01[14:24] {@Threei}  I'd rather leave it to you and wait for a drop to seek long entry
[14:25] {nemo} it hit R2 on daily, iwm short setup, finnies staying under vwap, vxx actually staying above
01[14:25] {@Threei}  but is you want it, then .80 break is your trigger
[14:25] {nemo} spy short setup having trouble with vwap rather
01[14:25] {@Threei}  with .90 stop
01[14:25] {@Threei}  it's a valid trade, just not my cap of tea
[14:26] {nemo} you put tea in your hat?
01[14:26] {@Threei}  spelling nazi
01[14:27] {@Threei}  someone hand me grenade launcher
[14:27] {nemo} better than being a keyboard rabbi
01[14:27] {@Threei}  no... flamethrower
06[14:27] * nemo wonders: "Where did that come from?"
01[14:28] {@Threei}  from that dark space with cobwebs you call your attic?
[14:28] {nemo} oh, I thought it was too much pressure on my brain from sitting so much
01[14:28] {@Threei}  actually your IWM short idea starts looking better
01[14:29] {@Threei}  so maybe you stood up for a min? {G}
[14:29] {nemo} that .81 is key to .10 cents
[14:30] {nemo} Evel Knievel trade
[14:32] {nemo} On May 1, 1984, ABC bought remaining 85% of ESPN it didn't already own from Texaco for $202m; it's now worth $50.8B
[14:37] {nemo} look at that, spy will let go a bit, not IWM
01[14:37] {@Threei}  same thing happened earlier with VXX, remember?
[14:42] {dino} kang stuck, out flat
[14:44] {stillstanding} sold IWM 116.86
[14:49] {stillstanding} out at .91 - .05
[14:50] {nemo} nice tight stop 117 siren call
[14:50] {stillstanding} sold low bought high. i'm good at that
[14:51] {nemo} when it didn't bite on that last setup I saw, I figured they'll look for 117
[14:52] {stillstanding} .89 .90 previous resistance areas.why i went short.
[14:53] {nemo} yeah, but when you're that close to a major level .91 is daily R2 with the whole just above it, need to either set your stop above .91 or the many magnets for price action here
[14:55] {nemo} some other stuff:  Never short a dull market... Having said that, remember Before I said spy was looking short, well it's recovered, so it's not helping an IWM short
[14:55] {stillstanding} dont look at the R2 stuff but the whole number I do.
[14:55] {nemo} VXX is just bobbing along, and there's no direction to the finnies
[14:56] {nemo} so nothing else in the environment is supporting an IWM short
[14:57] {nemo} SPY volume
[15:01] {stillstanding} IWM l .85
[15:02] {dino} stillstand, use those for levels
[15:05] {stillstanding} where would i see that?
[15:06] {dino}, you add the levels
[15:08] {nemo} spy slipping
[15:11] {nemo} short .86
[15:11] {nemo} IWM
01[15:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[15:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[15:22] {stillstanding} when can we start calling FB names?
[15:22] {nemo} stop to .89
01[15:23] {@Threei}  if and when it stops us out
[15:26] {nemo} stop .82
01[15:28] {@Threei}  oh boy... take a look at this:
01[15:28] {@Threei}
[15:28] {nemo} partial .72
[15:29] {RonS} looks like Putin is trying to stop his heart with a stare...
01[15:29] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:31] {@Threei}  good one nemo
[15:31] {nemo} spy and finnies wre looking weak, and if you're gonna get some selling on such an up day, usually after 3
[15:32] {stillstanding} nemo; trying to scare us?
[15:32] {nemo} I don't have to try
[15:32] {stillstanding} 3I not worried
[15:33] {nemo} why would he be
01[15:33] {@Threei}  bear market is my favorite... why would selling scare me
01[15:33] {@Threei}  I can't wait for the bull to be over
[15:33] {stillstanding} wee are long FB
[15:34] {nemo} ahhh
[15:34] {nemo} BOHICA
[15:34] {nemo} stop .80
01[15:35] {@Threei}  thing holds a few cents under day high, not drops with SPY
01[15:35] {@Threei}  why wouldn't we be long
01[15:35] {@Threei}  any market bounce should take it to breakout point and above
01[15:35] {@Threei}  typical salmon
[15:36] {nemo} fb looking iffy
01[15:36] {@Threei}  if market breaks down and stops it, well, this is something built in in any trade
[15:36] {stillstanding} see?
01[15:36] {@Threei}  see what? that a trade might be stopped?
01[15:36] {@Threei}  wow
01[15:37] {@Threei}  never happened before
[15:37] {nemo} yeah I'm Mr. 100%
[15:38] {nemo} yep...100% unadulterated taurine excrement
[15:38] {stillstanding} see nemo saying it looks iffy..
[15:38] {nemo} yeah, after he was in the trade...shit turns
[15:39] {nemo} when he called it you had just had a range, that lifted and formed a higher range, made sense
[15:39] {nemo} and frankly, it's likely to be either a rinse or a range into the close
01[15:43] {@Threei}  brrrreak
01[15:43] {@Threei}  good girl
[15:43] {nemo} see
01[15:43] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:43] {@Threei}  stop .79
01[15:43] {@Threei}  time's pressing
[15:44] {nemo} IWM held on by the proverbial hair
[15:44] {stillstanding} i had a .89 target
01[15:44] {@Threei}  eod, adjust your expectations
01[15:44] {@Threei}  15 min left
01[15:45] {@Threei}  salmons are fragile
[15:45] {stillstanding} all out at .87
[15:48] {dino} calling it a day, thx and gn
01[15:48] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[15:48] {@Threei}  ok
01[15:48] {@Threei}  last chance
01[15:48] {@Threei}  break
01[15:49] {@Threei}  and run
01[15:49] {@Threei}  or fly
01[15:49] {@Threei}  or both
01[15:52] {@Threei}  tick tock
[15:52] {nemo} since you don't have 1:1 I'd declare victory and git
[15:52] {stillstanding} gn thanks all
01[15:53] {@Threei}  take care stst
01[15:53] {@Threei}  (better than \ss, right?)
01[15:53] {@Threei}  I have 1:1
[15:54] {nemo} oh...nevermind  out remainder .74 for me
01[15:54] {@Threei}  out in full.93
01[15:55] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:55] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Monday, August 25, 2014

Aug 25 2014

A few nice trades, including cool 1:3 short on JPM; a few stops, albeit small but a enough to balance out wins.

Session Time: Mon Aug 25 00:00:00 2014

[09:02] {dino} gm
01[09:02] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:03] {nemo} SPY clear sailing to 202
[09:10] {nemo} IWM looks short
01[09:11] {@Threei}  too narrow to tell
01[09:11] {@Threei}  gap-b-stall in progress
[09:11] {nemo} yes
01[09:11] {@Threei}  b=n
[09:11] {nemo} notice I said "looks" and not "is"
[09:12] {nemo} Yeah...Wile...E...Coyote up wondering if it just ran off the cliff 
[09:13] {dino} everybody expecting big drop, gut says up
[09:14] {nemo} nothing overhead
[09:14] {nemo} 202
01[09:14] {@Threei}  I concur
01[09:14] {@Threei}  this is 2000 all over again
[09:15] {nemo} I'm not sure about that...those were all vapor stocks
[09:15] {nemo} "it's about eyeballs"
01[09:15] {@Threei}  doesn't matter... similarity is - market goes up forever, and everyone expects big drop,
[09:15] {dino} feels like it 3i, wants 20k
[09:16] {nemo} yeah...we haven't hit euphoria
01[09:16] {@Threei}  and it doesn't come untuil common knowledge becomes "it never will"
[09:16] {nemo} interesting how SNDK hasn't recovered
01[09:16] {@Threei}  tv clowns like Cramer start proclaiming new era
[09:16] {nemo} Ahh yes....The Rapture
[09:18] {troub} good morning
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -OSIS +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ITMN +36% (to be acquired by Roche @$74/shr in all cash deal)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -BKW +15% (in talks to acquire Tim Hortons)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -THI +15% (in talks w/BKW for potential acquisition)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -X +3.5% (Credit Suisse raises to Outperform from Underperform)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -DGLY +18% (follow thru momentum from Ferguson riots)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ANN +3% (shareholder Engine Capital believes company could be worth up to $55/shr)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GIMO +4.7% (announced collaboration w/VMWare NSX and Software-Defined Data Center)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -INSY +6.1% (receives FDA Orphan Drug Designation for
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ADXS +4.6% (announced advanced prostate cancer collaboration agreement w/Merck)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -TOPS +6.4% (announced extended charter and increased rate for M/T EShips Taweelah)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -LTM +9% (exploring REIT conversion)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -QIHU -4.2% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -GEF -10% (guides FY14 lower)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -RGDO -43% (permanently halts Regulate-PCI Phase III clinical trial for Revolixys Kit)
[09:23] {nemo} IWM looking short
[09:23] {nemo} spy coming in
[09:30] {ese} morning
[09:31] {ese} walking a picket line in an hour and a half
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  46 break
[09:31] {nemo} why don't u get there early to get a good spot
[09:31] {ese} lol
01[09:31] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:31] {ese} good one nemo
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:32] {@Threei}  no resultion in sight I take it, ese?
[09:33] {ese} not yet....but Vince Ready apparently will be mediating now.....he's one of the best in the country
01[09:35] {@Threei}  a lot of selling in SPY
[09:35] {nemo} tested this side of 200
[09:35] {mib_stillstanding} TWTR l 46.01
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop to .94
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:36] {@Threei}  know what to do mib?
[09:38] {mib_stillstanding} stop to .99 ?
01[09:39] {@Threei}  partial first
01[09:39] {@Threei}  and yes, trail stop
[09:41] {mib_stillstanding} trail was supposed to be where?
01[09:42] {@Threei}  when 1:1 was hit...
01[09:43] {@Threei}  we partial and trail
01[09:43] {@Threei}  SOP, remember?
01[09:43] {@Threei}  instructions on the trading room page
[09:43] {mib_stillstanding} higher up than .99? trail by .10 or .11?
[09:43] {mib_stillstanding} ok
01[09:44] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG PRELIMINARY MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 58.5 V 58.0E
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  75 
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (US) Major US banks said to be planning to meet with the US treasury over the coming months to discuss cyber threats - financial press - Aims discussion related to how to fight off cyber attacks
01[09:49] {@Threei}  let's trail to .04
01[09:49] {@Threei}  not liking slowdown
[09:52] {dino} qihu sm l .76
06[09:53] * @Threei kicks FB in the rear
01[09:54] {@Threei}  meh
01[09:58] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: July New Home Sales expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) - Consensus expectations: 429Ke v 406K prior
01[09:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .90 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 412K V 429KE
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .95 
01[10:00] {@Threei}  noper
[10:01] {dino} qihu stop .49 -.27
[10:01] {mib_stillstanding} i shorted and got out
[10:01] {nemo} banks still celebrating that get out of jail card free from last week
[10:07] {nemo} not a single weak stock on the algo
01[10:08] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
01[10:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[10:14] {@Threei}  C rinse
01[10:14] {@Threei}  bastard
[10:17] {mib_stillstanding} still in?
01[10:17] {@Threei}  in what?
[10:17] {mib_stillstanding} SLW
01[10:17] {@Threei}  of course
01[10:17] {@Threei}  why not
[10:18] {mib_stillstanding} stop move?
01[10:18] {@Threei}  not yet
01[10:19] {@Threei}  C, right idea, too tight stop
01[10:21] {@Threei}  S&P 500 moves above 2000 for the first time
01[10:21] {@Threei}  stop to .56 now
01[10:22] {@Threei}  ugh
[10:24] {nemo} IWM short
[10:25] {nemo} looking for them to check the other side of the spy range
[10:30] {mib_stillstanding} no clear trend. not enough volatility.not good to trade breakouts. 2 cents.
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 7.1 V 12.8E
[10:34] {dino} pzza drop
[10:35] {ese} that didn't efect the mrkt at all those Man..numbers
[10:36] {nemo} Draghi last week and the bank get out of jail card
[10:36] {nemo} we're going up especially in a low volume week like this
[10:36] {ese} lol
[10:36] {nemo} I'm out of iwm
[10:42] {dino} grub drop
[10:43] {dino} grub sm l .51
[10:44] {dino} out grub .00, +.49
[10:44] {dino} too soon
[10:46] {troub} wtg dino 
[10:48] {dino} ty
01[11:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .10 break
01[11:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .15 
01[11:04] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[11:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[11:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[11:17] {@Threei}  I hate augiust
[11:18] {mib_stillstanding} i hate all months 
01[11:18] {@Threei}  I don't
01[11:19] {@Threei}  august is the only exception
[11:19] {cosmo} April is the worst...
01[11:19] {@Threei}  with July running close second
[11:19] {dino} april was good
[11:19] {nemo} I'm not partial to days that end in "y"
[11:30] {mib_stillstanding} away 
01[11:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: BKW  .70 break hl
01[11:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[11:44] {@Threei}  ./i
01[11:44] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[11:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .80 break
01[11:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[11:58] {@Threei}  C started descent, good chance JPM will follow the suit
01[12:06] {@Threei}  ideally, SOY loses .40, C - .80, then JPM hit's 1:1
01[12:06] {@Threei}  SPY
01[12:06] {@Threei}  hits
01[12:06] {@Threei}  jeez, my typing...
01[12:07] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[12:07] {@Threei}  even better
01[12:07] {@Threei}  C breakdown should send JPM lower yet
01[12:10] {@Threei}  cover 1/4 more here
01[12:10] {@Threei}  stop .76
01[12:13] {@Threei}  .71 now
01[12:15] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[12:17] {@Threei}  stop for the remaining 1/4 to .66
01[12:17] {@Threei}  lwt's choke it
01[12:23] {@Threei}  Russian tanks cross border, open new war front in Ukraine
01[12:33] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[12:33] {@Threei}  out
01[12:34] {@Threei}  happy
01[12:37] {@Threei}  1:4
01[12:44] {@Threei}  time for reversal
01[12:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .40 break
01[12:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .34 
[12:47] {nemo} Q: What are the three most common words in the English language? A: Made in China.
01[12:47] {@Threei}  sad
[12:49] {mib_stillstanding} isnt jpm forming bear flag i.e. should be shorted below?
[12:50] {nemo} fade it then
[12:50] {nemo} look at indexes
[12:50] {nemo} if it doesn't go up with indexes u r right
01[12:50] {@Threei}  that's what triggers are for
01[12:50] {@Threei}  if it doesn't break .40, it's not a long play
[12:50] {nemo} I like mine set around 2 lb. pull
01[12:51] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[12:51] {nemo} indexes looking short
01[12:51] {@Threei}  and any invadilation can be looked as as fading the setup
[12:51] {nemo} was it Chaeron that loved fading ur setups?
01[12:52] {@Threei}  yep, that was his specialty
01[12:52] {@Threei}  he skipped all that triggered and took all that invalidated
01[12:52] {@Threei}  did pretty good too
[12:52] {mib_stillstanding} what happened to him
[12:52] {nemo} yeah, well, when you're the underworld's boatkeeper, I would think shorting would fit ur nature
01[12:52] {@Threei}  nothing, good and well
01[12:53] {@Threei}  now and then drops by to say hello
[12:53] {mib_stillstanding} in the room?
01[12:53] {@Threei}  yes
[12:53] {mib_stillstanding} he pays monthly fee just to drop in once in a while?
01[12:54] {@Threei}  I have to say, you ask the wierdest questions I';ve ever got from a trialer, lol
[12:55] {mib_stillstanding} i am a wierd person. not a reasonable question?
01[12:55] {@Threei}  no
01[12:55] {@Threei}  other person's financial considerations are not mine to discuss with third parties
[12:55] {nemo} who Vad lets in and when is his business,no? 
01[12:56] {@Threei}  just as you probably wouldn't want me to discuss yours with someone else
[12:58] {dino} surprised he still lets me in
01[12:58] {@Threei}  don't be
[12:58] {mib_stillstanding} if i ask wierd question feel free not to answer... 
01[12:58] {@Threei}  I experience childhood love and admirsation for T-Rex
[12:59] {nemo} the animal or the group
01[12:59] {@Threei}  but then you'll complain that I ignore you :)
[12:59] {mib_stillstanding} but of course. 
01[12:59] {@Threei}  see? I can't win :)
[13:00] {mib_stillstanding} i know the feeling. have been trying to figure trading out for 35 years
01[13:01] {@Threei}  should have come here earlier
[13:02] {mib_stillstanding} worked for a salary. all losing days. but got paid at least.
[13:03] {dino} qihu sm l .97
[13:04] {mib_stillstanding} for you latest JPM buy signal, why fade the JPY downtrend?
[13:04] {mib_stillstanding} your
01[13:04] {@Threei}  JPM fade works
01[13:04] {@Threei}  every trend reverses sooner or later, no?
01[13:04] {@Threei}  it's simply a matter of triggers
01[13:04] {@Threei}  which side triggers first
01[13:05] {@Threei}  long or short
01[13:05] {@Threei}  odds were on a long side, so I called that, but short was still valid
01[13:05] {@Threei}  you had your triggers, if you saw it as short - your treade was properly structured for you,
01[13:05] {@Threei}  short ,.34 break with stop above .40
[13:05] {nemo} spy testing lows
[13:06] {mib_stillstanding} the trend not your best friend anymore? why try a contratrend trade?
01[13:06] {@Threei}  didn't I answer it above?
[13:07] {mib_stillstanding} but wouldnt you be better off to only take triggers in the diirection of the JPM trend?
01[13:08] {@Threei}  I am lost
[13:08] {nemo} judgement
01[13:08] {@Threei}  both are valid trades
[13:08] {nemo} it's probability not certainty, 
01[13:08] {@Threei}  I give you triggers and the direction of better odds
[13:08] {nemo} after such a drop from highs Vad was thinking bounce
[13:08] {nemo} if it didn't bounce and goes through support, play it short
[13:08] {nemo} adaptability, flexibility
01[13:09] {@Threei}  over 40 cents drop, for the stock with today's range 80 cents
01[13:09] {@Threei}  you don't think bounce should be in cards, especially during August swamp when trends are simply not there?
[13:10] {_biotrader} is this a trading room?
01[13:10] {@Threei}  hmmm
[13:10] {dino} yes
01[13:10] {@Threei}  what do you think we are discussing? :)
[13:11] {_biotrader} ok thanks
01[13:12] {@Threei}  you've seen the JPM short call, biotrader?
[13:13] {_biotrader} yes that was a good call
01[13:14] {@Threei}  cool... thought you might have missed it, since you asked wether it was trading room :)
[13:17] {dino} out qihu .27, +.30
01[13:17] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:18] {dino} ty
01[13:18] {@Threei}  watching IWM for pullback entry
01[13:25] {@Threei}  got away
01[13:25] {@Threei}  wanted it under .50
[13:30] {nemo} this bearish resistance for SPY
[13:31] {nemo} iwm stays above .70 bullish
01[13:44] {@Threei}  drop under .50 would still be interesting for double bottom
01[13:44] {@Threei}  WMT Reportedly introduces their chip enabled Mastercard (related MA V)
01[13:53] {@Threei}  biotraders are multiplying?
01[13:54] {@Threei}  one is enough :)
[13:54] {_biotrader2} lol
01[13:54] {@Threei}  :)
[13:55] {mib_stillstanding} IWM l 115.71
[13:58] {mib_stillstanding} IWM out at 115.79 +.08
01[13:58] {@Threei}  nice scalping footwork
01[13:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .55 break
01[13:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 
[14:05] {mib_stillstanding} IWM l .78 out .72 -6 
01[14:05] {@Threei}  change EBAY to .45 break
01[14:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .39 
[14:09] {mib_stillstanding} EBAY l .46
01[14:18] {@Threei}  feels like failure
[14:18] {mib_stillstanding} i know the feeling well...
01[14:20] {@Threei}  man, are you ever pessimistic
[14:20] {mib_stillstanding} 90% of traders fail. why should I not be?
01[14:21] {@Threei}  you enter profession with intention to be among failing?
01[14:21] {@Threei}  why would you enter it at all then?
01[14:21] {@Threei}  this is the same pecrcent that any business shows
01[14:21] {@Threei}  don't go in entrepreneurship then
01[14:22] {@Threei}  here is better question for you to ponder on
01[14:22] {@Threei}  do you believe there is any chance in hell to succeed while being dead set on failure}?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  there is 10 % that make it. Why not aim to become one of them?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  if you can't do that, don't waste your time and money, look for something else to do
[14:24] {mib_stillstanding} I am trying but have not found any confidence yet to trade with real money and wont until I at least think I can be successful. 
01[14:25] {@Threei}  well, you sure are trying hard to convince yourself that you won't
01[14:25] {@Threei}  and guess what... whether you think you can do it or not, you are right
[14:26] {mib_stillstanding} so the 90% all thought that they couldn't?:)
01[14:26] {@Threei}  may I offer you a mental experiment?
01[14:26] {@Threei}  no, but none of 10 % did
[14:26] {mib_stillstanding} yes!!
01[14:26] {@Threei}  here goes
01[14:27] {@Threei}  Envision a foot wide board laying down on the ground. Can you walk it not falling on the ground?
[14:27] {mib_stillstanding} yes
01[14:28] {@Threei}  Now envision this same board, 100 ft high in the air. Can you walk it?
01[14:28] {@Threei}  no wind, board is rock solid
[14:29] {mib_stillstanding} wouldnt want to try
01[14:29] {@Threei}  and if you did, chances are...?
[14:30] {mib_stillstanding} depending on length of board, theres a good chance I would fall
01[14:30] {@Threei}  right
01[14:30] {@Threei}  so, what changed?
01[14:30] {@Threei}  same board
01[14:30] {@Threei}  same width
01[14:30] {@Threei}  nothing external pushes you off the board
01[14:30] {@Threei}  yet your muscle would go rigid,
01[14:30] {@Threei}  you balance would have been off
01[14:31] {@Threei}  legs would be shaking
01[14:31] {@Threei}  what changed?
01[14:32] {@Threei}  need help?
[14:33] {mib_stillstanding} awareness of consequences of falling changed.
01[14:33] {@Threei}  very correct,
01[14:33] {@Threei}  price of mistake changed, rising drastically,
01[14:33] {@Threei}  and that brought fear
01[14:33] {@Threei}  and fear resulted in this paradox:
01[14:34] {@Threei}  ot made that same outcome which caused the fear more likely.
01[14:34] {@Threei}  Back to trading... same thing happens
01[14:34] {@Threei}  Your negative mindset kills your chances for a positive outcome
01[14:35] {@Threei}  and foreseeing your next question,
01[14:35] {@Threei}  no, positive mindset doesn't guarantee positive outcome,
01[14:35] {@Threei}  but negative mondset gurantees that positive outcome will not come
01[14:36] {@Threei}  That's why there are no pessimists among 10%
01[14:36] {@Threei}  even thought there are optimists among 90.
01[14:36] {@Threei}  Hope this makes sense to you
[14:37] {mib_stillstanding} isnt a lot of trading being made by computers who dont have any emotion?
[14:37] {nemo} yep
[14:37] {nemo} but they're programmed by humans who do
01[14:38] {@Threei}  it doesn't matter at all
01[14:39] {@Threei}  how do those computers prevent you from profiting?
01[14:39] {@Threei}  I hear this computer scary tales for about a decade, and we did quite well in the meanhtime
[14:39] {mib_stillstanding} they have no fear or greed... 
01[14:39] {@Threei}  while those who talk about it just use it as an excuse for their losses
01[14:39] {@Threei}  so what?
01[14:40] {@Threei}  setup remains a setup
01[14:40] {@Threei}  chart remains a chart
01[14:40] {@Threei}  you think those programs do not lose money?
[14:40] {mib_stillstanding} and the 90% dont know about the setups. 
01[14:40] {@Threei}  a few years ago Goldman Sachs shut down their elite fund
01[14:40] {@Threei}  run mostly by program trading
[14:41] {mib_stillstanding} happy to hear it. 
01[14:41] {@Threei}  think because of grest profits they've made? :)
[14:43] {mib_stillstanding} i believe there are programs on the bid and ask in most spreads on the indexes like SPY
01[14:43] {@Threei}  so?
01[14:43] {@Threei}  what do they have to do with your trading?
[14:46] {mib_stillstanding} nothing. it's the 90% stat that scares me...
01[14:47] {@Threei}  OK... name me one thing where 90% is successful
[14:48] {mib_stillstanding} plumbers,electricians,
[14:48] {nemo} definitely not marriage
01[14:49] {@Threei}  so, those who simply work by isntructions
[14:49] {mib_stillstanding} marriage only 85% successful
01[14:49] {@Threei}  trading is definitely not that
[14:50] {nemo} marriage is almost 70% unsuccessful
01[14:50] {@Threei}  it's much closer to entrepreneurship than to a trade kind of job
01[14:50] {@Threei}  if that puts you off, then trading is not your field
01[14:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .70 break
01[14:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .75 
01[14:52] {@Threei}  scalp only most likely
01[14:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[14:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
[15:00] {dino} mib_ regarding the computers trading, there are better worlds
[15:00] {dino} trade where they are not
[15:05] {nemo} or as Yoda would say, "Go where they not be."
[15:06] {dino} lol
01[15:06] {@Threei}  Yoda-speak your strong suit isn't
01[15:06] {@Threei}  would say Yoda: Go where they be not
[15:06] {nemo} stones and glass houses Vad
[15:06] {dino} of course that argument could be used against computers, as they trade against each other, zero sum game
01[15:07] {@Threei}  let's trail to .64
01[15:07] {@Threei}  not liking how it behaves
01[15:07] {@Threei}  should have been testing .80 break by now
[15:07] {nemo} they look short now, but this 200.10 level very sticky
[15:08] {nemo} on spy
01[15:08] {@Threei}  yup
[15:08] {dino} mib_ in all seriousness, you are have taken trial membership in the dullest month of the year. my advice, buy september and get a feeling for how this gig really works. somthing tells me it will open your eyes
[15:08] {nemo} I concur...trialling in the Summer is not a fair representation
01[15:09] {@Threei}  not only that, it was the dullest August in at least 5 years
[15:09] {nemo} since 2007
01[15:09] {@Threei}  remember how nemo always tries to scare us about dull august, and we always prove hom wrong?
01[15:09] {@Threei}  well, this year he was right
[15:09] {mib_stillstanding} so wouldn't the next logical approach to trial in September?
[15:09] {nemo} No
01[15:09] {@Threei}  (pains me to admit)
[15:09] {nemo} you trialed
01[15:10] {@Threei}  IWM, take half out
06[15:10] * nemo gets out taser
[15:10] {dino} next logical step is to read ttr before september trading starts
[15:10] {nemo} and 111 trades
[15:10] {dino} will only take a few hours
[15:10] {nemo} then there's the Taoist Trader
[15:11] {nemo} and then to break it up, may I suggest Nabokov
01[15:11] {@Threei}  why, mib? Trial is to find out whether we know what we are doing. On top of that, there are years and years of trading log published on website. You still haven't made up your mind about that?
[15:11] {nemo} plus...with a little luck, our favorite comic foil comes back in September
[15:11] {mib_stillstanding} and all guaranteed as well i believe
01[15:11] {@Threei}  what guaranteed?
[15:12] {dino} after that is complete, i suggest a law of attraction book. attitude must change or you simply guarantee your failure. 
01[15:12] {@Threei}  that's guarantee, yes :)
[15:12] {dino} trading is not "easy" to learn, its a process, otherwise everybody would be a trader.
01[15:12] {@Threei}  ok IWM, take .80 please
[15:12] {nemo} finnies weak
[15:13] {mib_stillstanding} any surgery available for attitude change:)
[15:13] {mib_stillstanding} whats guaranteed?
01[15:13] {@Threei}  with 2x4, yes
01[15:13] {@Threei}  endowed with rusty nails
01[15:13] {@Threei}  pointy ends out
[15:13] {nemo} the beatings will continue until morale improves
[15:13] {dino} guaranteed failure, if you expect to fail. law of attraction
[15:14] {mib_stillstanding} a few rusty nails and I always feel better
[15:14] {nemo} not with kurare on them you won't
[15:15] {mib_stillstanding} i'm married. i'll take the one with kurare
[15:15] {nemo} smart man
[15:15] {dino} but the bottom line is, you must believe in yourself. failure cannot be an option. otherwise, save yourself some $ and do something else
[15:15] {nemo} get divorced
[15:16] {dino} a million ways to trade, figure out yor "edge". enough said. good luck
[15:17] {mib_stillstanding} isn't there always around a 50/50 chance of a 1:1 move?
[15:18] {dino} no, you must think in terms of probabilities
[15:19] {dino} if your way of reasoning was correct, there would be no use for candles, head/shoulders, cup/handles, etc
[15:20] {dino} probabilities/probabities/probabilities
[15:20] {mib_stillstanding} there may not be... 
01[15:20] {@Threei}  stop to .68
01[15:20] {@Threei}  lol, really?
01[15:20] {@Threei}  what is it we are making money on all these years?
[15:21] {dino} i play mainly intra-day capitulations and euphoric spikes. why? probabilities say they will reverse intra-day
01[15:25] {@Threei}  come on IWM, do it
[15:28] {troub} Don't forget poor little EBAY.
[15:28] {mib_stillstanding} did i get kicked out?
01[15:29] {@Threei}  [15:24] * mib_stillstanding ( Quit
01[15:29] {@Threei}  if you were kicked out, you wouldn't be able to rejoin
[15:30] {mib_stillstanding} admit it. The thought has crossed your mind.
01[15:30] {@Threei}  you still in EBAY. troub?
01[15:30] {@Threei}  gish... why would it
[15:30] {dino} lool
[15:30] {dino} lol
01[15:30] {@Threei}  tomorrow when your trial ends, it will {G}
[15:31] {nemo} crossed my foot
[15:31] {nemo} crossed my scope too
[15:31] {mib_stillstanding} you mean until the trial again in september right?
[15:31] {troub} yea, stp at .38 and see if it will ever wake up
01[15:32] {@Threei}  what trial in september?
[15:32] {mib_stillstanding} prob is everyone knows about that stop
01[15:32] {@Threei}  15:11] {@Threei} Trial is to find out whether we know what we are doing. On top of that, there are years and years of trading log published on website. You still haven't made up your mind about that?
[15:33] {nemo} smelling spy vwap run
[15:34] {mib_stillstanding} too many losing and unprofitable trades this slow week. would have been nice if more winners were had.
[15:35] {dino} why a prob about everyone knows about that stop???? a stop is a stop, who cares who knows. change the attitude am open yuor eyes. shit happens, who cares why, it just does. this is trading. things happen, you ar supposed to react
01[15:36] {@Threei}  read the log for years back
[15:36] {nemo} yep
01[15:36] {@Threei}  don't demand that we prove yourselves to you
01[15:36] {@Threei}  we exist from 2000
01[15:36] {@Threei}  I trade from 1996
01[15:36] {@Threei}  think we don';t know what we are doing?
01[15:37] {@Threei}  ok IWM
01[15:37] {@Threei}  time to run
[15:38] {nemo} should make .87
[15:41] {dino} fwiw mib- i have been trading here for 7 years. its a no b.s. room. 3i knows his stuff as do alot of the other guys here. but nobody knows what will happen and why with 100% accuracy. the sooner you understand that the better. then use probabilities. certain "x" moves will result in a "y" move 60% or more of the time, etc. stop overthinking, get a positive attitude, and open your mind.  
01[15:41] {@Threei}  where is "like" button?
[15:41] {nemo} well, tagged .86 spy at vwap
01[15:42] {@Threei}  should break...
01[15:43] {@Threei}  stop to .74, time becomes an issue
[15:45] {dino} dkl drop 
[15:47] {dino} damn, missed it
[15:48] {nemo} it's Monday
01[15:48] {@Threei}  troub, I guess it's time to scratch EBAY
[15:49] {troub} seems so.
01[15:49] {@Threei}  closing IWM
01[15:49] {@Threei}  done on that, thank you all
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:51] {dino} gn 3i

Friday, August 22, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up  Weekly Market UpdateFeasting on Doves

- A slightly more hawkish tone was heard from the Fed this week, in the minutes of the July FOMC meeting and in speeches from leading officials. Fed Chair Yellen's presentation at Jackson Hole was restrained and balanced, but the dovish Williams and moderate Lockhart both conceded that rate hikes would likely begin by mid-2015. The US yield curve flattened notably after all the talk. August Flash PMI manufacturing readings provided a view of the global economy at the midpoint of the third quarter: in the US, the Markit survey hit its highest level since April 2010, with big gains in all sub-indices; in Europe, the French data sank deeper into contraction while Germany flat-lined; in Asia, the China HSBC manufacturing PMI sank to a three-month low, while Japan's rose to a five-month high. Violence in Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine kept markets jumpy, although it hardly prevented material gains in equities worldwide. For the week, the DJIA gained 2%, the S&P500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq added 1.6%.

- The FOMC minutes out on Wednesday indicated that the Fed appears to be shifting to a more balanced view of the economy from a more dovish position. The changes were of tone rather than anything material, although the minutes also showed a growing debate regarding the labor market. The minutes added a controversial new statement: "...a range of labor market indicators suggested that there remained significant underutilization of labor resources." Both Bullard and Plosser have disagreed with the novel use of "significant" to describe labor resource underutilization. Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was balanced and pragmatic, noting both the positive developments in the jobs market and more negative trends, including slack in the mortgage market.

- The Ukraine situation seemed to be easing early in the week, as Kiev and Russian officials met and seemed to agree to protocols for allowing the Russian humanitarian mission into Ukraine. Meanwhile the Ukraine armed forces made even more gains against the rebels. By Friday, relations between Kiev and Moscow had soured again after the Russian side forced in the convoy without permission, prompting the Ukrainians to call it an invasion. In Iraq, the killing of a US journalist by ISIS hardened the US stance against the group, prompting very hawkish rhetoric out of administration figures, who suggested airstrikes against ISIS might be expanded into Syria.

- Shares of major US homebuilders gained steadily this week thanks to another month of strong gains in the August NAHB report and the July housing starts. The NAHB's 55 reading was the third month of gains for the index, while July housing starts rose 8%, halting two straight months of declines. Some skeptics pointed out that multi-family units were the lion's share of the gain, but single-family starts also saw solid improvement.

- Target's earnings slid as its Canada operations continued to drag on results, and management cuts its FY view for the second time as traffic declined, even as the firm has ramped up promotional activity. TJX saw its earnings grow by single digits and the firm hiked its FY guidance. Teen retailer American Eagle topped very low expectations on a negative comp. L Brands saw modest growth and positive comps. Both Home Depot and Lowes saw very good quarterly results, and Home Depot said the housing market remains a modest tailwind for its business, and it observed an acceleration of big-ticket spending in the quarter.

- Bank of America reached a $16.7 billion agreement with DoJ to settle charges it misled investors into buying troubled MBS, confirming numerous reports from earlier in August. BoA will pay a $9.65 billion in cash and provide $7 billion of consumer relief to struggling homeowners and communities. The deal resolves nearly all of the legacy issues left over from the hastily-arranged crisis-era acquisitions of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. The accord is expected to reduce Q3 earnings by about $5.3 billion, or about $0.43/share.

- Various long-running M&A dramas saw new developments this week. Valeant extended the expiration of its exchange offer to acquire Allergan to December 31, and there were reports that Allergan had approached Salix Pharmaceuticals or Jazz about a possible merger to fend off Valeant's advances. CNBC threw cold water on the story, reporting that any potential deal could be months away, perhaps in December. Dollar General rolled out a $9.7 billion cash offer for Family Dollar, topping the $8.95 billion bid made in late July by Dollar Tree. Family Dollar rejected the proposal on the basis of antitrust regulatory considerations, although there were unconfirmed reports that it was open to concessions to resolve the compliance issues.

- EUR/USD hit one-year lows around 1.3220 this week as headwinds strengthened for the European economy. The Ukraine conflict continues to weigh on the single currency, and the opposite trajectories for EU and US monetary policy become even starker. Cable slumped to its lowest level since April thanks to soft July UK CPI inflation data and a significant decline in July PPI inflation numbers. GBP/USD tested below 1.6565 on Friday afternoon. The minutes for the BoE's August meeting disclosed the first dissent on the committee since July 2011. The vote was 7-2, with Weale and Mccafferty dissenting.

- The surprise slowdown in China manufacturing in the first half of August prompted fresh speculation over a further policy stimulus from Beijing. The August HSBC flash manufacturing PMI turned lower for the first time since March, hitting a 3-month low of 50.3 and widely missing consensus of 51.5. Growth in new orders slowed and disinflationary trends resurfaced with a decrease in both input and output price components. Later on the Friday, China's MIIT warned the economy is faced with strong downward pressure, while analysts with Barclays noted this PMI slump could result in as many as two interest rate cuts by the PBoC before the end of 2014.

- An underwhelming run of July economic data in Japan continued with a wider than expected trade deficit. Exports rose for the first time in three months, but soft yen boosted the import value of energy, contributing to the 25th consecutive month of negative trade. On Thursday, local press reported that Japan is looking to set aside as much as ¥1.0T in stimulus funds in the 2015 budget supporting small business, presumably to help soften any further blow to the economy if PM Abe decides to proceed with a second increase in consumption tax.