12/29/2023 4:06:35 PM
The Dow and S&P touched fresh all-time highs, while the S&P traded within 0.5% of a new high during the final week of 2023. The driving force for markets remained the premise that central banks will leave rates on hold or take them lower in 2024. M&A continued to percolate, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry which hopefully portends well for increased capital markets activity in 2024. Economic data led by the Richmond Fed data was decidedly soft, underscoring the underlying bid in US Treasury markets while also helping push oil prices lower. The S&P extended its win streak to nine weeks in a row, gaining 0.3% for the week and 24% on the year, while the DJIA rose 0.8% for the week and the Nasdaq added 0.1%.
The equity market meltup continued through most of the week in the absence of much corporate news, though M&A among drug developers continued apace. Bristol Myers Squibb announced its second major acquisition in two weeks, agreeing to pay $4.1B in cash for radiopharmaceutical therapy developer Rayzebio. Gracell Biotechnology, which specializes in CAR-T cell therapies, announced it would be acquired by AstraZeneca for $1.2B in cash.
WEEKEND
(UR) Russia Pres Putin has reportedly again been privately signaling that he is open to a ceasefire in Ukraine since Sept 2023, as long as Russia can declare victory; Putin said to have signaled perfect timing would be before Mar 2024 elections in Russia - NYT
MON 2/25
AAPL Reportedly asked some of its supply chain partners in Taiwan and South Korea to help accelerate the development of its first foldable iPhone model; May launch as soon as end-2024 or during 2025 - Taiwanese press
005930.KR Said to postpone Taylor (Texas) fab mass production from H2 2024 until 2025 [reason not initially disclosed, but TSMC also postponed production at its US fab in Arizona to 2025] - press
WAB Reportedly building Small Nuclear Reactor named 'eVinci' for Saskatchewan Govt in Canada that can reportedly run for eight years or more without water - financial press
TUES 2/26
GRCL To be acquired by AstraZeneca in ~$1.2B deal; Gracell shareholders to receive $2.00/shr (equivalent to $10.00/ADS) in cash at closing, plus a non-tradable CVR for up to $0.30/shr
(IL) Hamas and the allied Islamic Jihad said to have rejected an Egyptian proposal for Gaza's govt overhaul in in return for a permanent ceasefire; Hamas wants ceasefire first - Politico
8267.JP Aims for a 5% to 10% drop in total truck use via improved load rates; Also hopes to shave 5% to 10% off driving distance using AI - Nikkei
(IR) IAEA report: Iran from June to Nov tripled rate at which it is producing uranium enriched to 60% purity to ~9kg/month, the rate just below the level needed for nuclear weapons and the level it reached before slowdown - press
RYZB To be acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb for $62.50/shr all-cash in ~$4.1B deal; To be dilutive to BMY’s non-GAAP diluted EPS by ~$0.13 in 2024
MDGS Launches pilot of a wireless charging solution for EV charging in automated parking systems in Israel; Notes the system will be able to charge all electric vehicles at efficiencies of >93%
Mastercard SpendingPulse: Holiday season US retail sales (not adj for inflation and ex auto) +3.1% y/y [**Note: on Sept 22nd, expected US holiday sales from Nov 1st to Dec 24th to rise 3.7% y/y]; Spending online is increasing at a faster pace than in-store
(US) US Trade Representative announces the further extension through May 31st, 2024 of the COVID-related tariff exemptions in the China Section 301 investigation
GBTC Appoints Mark Shifke Chairman; Effective January 1st
(US) Dec Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Regional Index: +6.3 v -11.0 prior (highest since May 2022)
(US) Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -9.3 v -19.9 prior
WED 2/27
(SE) Turkey’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee approves Sweden’s NATO membership bid
(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces Bond purchases for Jan-Mar 2024: Set a lower limit for purchases of some govt bonds in shorter maturities; Trims JGB buying frequencies in long-term maturities
HLAG.DE Considers current situation with Red Sea and Suez Canal security still too dangerous; Will continue to reroute ships via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa
(CN) China State Planner Head: China will push changes to fundamentally boost household consumption - 14th five-year plan speech
(TR) Turkey Pres Erdogan: Israel PM Netanyahu is no different than Hitler
MAERSKB.DK Said to have scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the next several weeks - press
WMB Announces $1.95B acquisition of Strategic Gulf Coast Natural Gas Storage portfolio with direct access to LNG export facilities and interstate pipelines
(US) DEC RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -11 V -3E; New Orders -14
(IS) Israel Defense Min Gantz: The situation on Israel's northern border 'must change' and the time for diplomacy is running out
(US) TREASURY $58B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 3.801% V 4.420% PRIOR, BTC 2.50 V 2.46 PRIOR AND 2.52 OVER THE LAST 12
(US) US White House: To provide final package of up to $250M in additional assistance to Ukraine as current funding runs out
THRS 2/28
(RU) Russia Pres Putin during recent meeting in Mar 2023 said to have told China Pres Xi that Russia's fighting in Ukraine will take 'at least five more years' so that China 'hedged its bets' - Nikkei
(CN) China Defense Ministry: Taiwan govt deliberately hyping up so-called China army PLA threat for their selfish gains; China is aware of moves from Taiwan military, will take all necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity
ZK Officially launches ZEEKR 007 with 800V platform featuring the debut of ZEEKR’s new lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells and battery packs, capable of replenishing 500km (311 miles) of range in 15 min on a DC fast charger
About half of the container ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is currently avoiding these routes - press
(BR) Brazil mid-Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.6%e
Redfin: U.S. pending home sales dropped 4% y/y during the four weeks ending Dec 24, the smallest decline since Mar 2022; New listings +12.2% y/y (biggest uptick since June 2021)
(US) NOV PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E
(US) Nevada reports Nov casino gaming Rev $1.37B, +12.6% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $821.0M, +22.6% y/y
BA US FAA reportedly closely monitoring inspections of Boeing 737 MAX planes to look for potential loose bolts in the rudder control system - press
(US) NOV PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: -5.1% V -6.6% PRIOR
(US) DOE CRUDE: -7.1M V -2.4ME; GASOLINE: -0.7M V +0.1ME; DISTILLATE: +0.7M V +0.7ME
(US) TREASURY'S $40B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 3.859% V 4.399% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.50 V 2.44 PRIOR AND 2.54 OVER LAST 12 AUCTIONS
(US) Former Pres Trump has been disqualified from Maine Republican Primary Ballot for role in 2021 attack on US Capitol in ruling by Maine Sec of State Bellows, a Democrat; Trump's team will appeal [**Note: the second state in two weeks to disqualify Trump’s GOP candidacy]
FRI 2/29
(ES) SPAIN PRELIMINARY DEC CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E V -0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.1% V 3.2%E (lowest annual pace since Aug)
(RU) Russian govt spokesperson Peskov: In case of seizure of Russia assets, Kremlin analysed possible retaliatory steps in advance; There is a list of Western assets Russia could confiscate in retaliation
(CN) China appoints former Navy chief Dong Jun as its new Defense Min - press
(US) DEC CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 46.9 V 50.0E
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 622 v 620 prior (+0.3% w/w)
